Footnotes from the Ukrainian "Crisis"; New High-Points in Cynicism Part V

[blindpig]

Pawns in Budanov's service
POSTED BY @NSANZO ⋅ 04/19/2024



“This defiant Ukrainian general has no smile, but he does have surprising comments about Trump,” headlines this week a report about Kirilo Budanov published by David Ignatius, one of the star columnists of The Washington Post . In reality, the surprising comments about the candidate to return to the White House are limited to showing his affinity with the former president for his personality and for having gotten up again whenever he has fallen, to finally clarify that "even a person like him will not be able to resolve the issue in one day,” as Trump claims he would be able to do. In the interview, in which the head of Ukraine's military intelligence repeats the usual clichés about the need for weapons, Budanov states another truism: in the coming months, Russia will try to “get the maximum amount of Donetsk and Lugansk territories” with the hope, according to Ignatius, “that a re-elected President Donald Trump can ratify his gains.

Lack of content, the interview does not provide any particularly new information beyond the continuation of the exaltation of a figure whose main work is murders and destruction in the rear. And although his job description implies a strong task of disinformation, Ignatius, like the rest of the Western correspondents, respects the official discourse that Budanov has wanted to construct for himself: his supposed mystery, the imaginary assassination attempts or Vladimir Putin's obsession with his figure.

The American journalist does not get any direct response from the GUR leader, although he does get some indications of Ukrainian intentions. “When I asked him if Ukrainian attacks inside Russia would continue, Budanov gave a rare smile,” notes Ignatius. “I hope so,” he responds as quoted in the article. And without contextualizing the nature of the Ukrainian attacks in Russia, the journalist adds that “a cartoon circulating on the Internet shows Putin meeting Budanov in a park and asking him if his dog bites. Budanov replies no, and Putin pets the animal. The dog takes a gun and shoots Putin dead.”

Ukraine's actions on the territory of continental Russia are fundamentally based on drone attacks and cross-border raids. In the case of the use of unmanned aircraft against Russian military and civilian targets, especially refineries, Budanov has encountered reluctance from the United States, aware that no important objective will be achieved and that it could be provoked, as has already happened, retaliation against much more expensive Ukrainian energy infrastructure. Regarding the raids, Budanov has not hidden his willingness to continue with this action, whose objective is also clear: to destabilize the internal situation in the Russian Federation. “This war will continue as long as this regime remains in Russia,” he states in the interview, repeating an idea that representatives of the Ukrainian Government and the Office of the President have repeatedly emphasized.

In this destabilization work, Budanov has a series of groups that are part of special forces subordinated to the will and creativity of their boss. The reference to the attacks in Russia made by the GUR leader in his statements to The Washington Post is one of many that point to new cross-border attacks. In the last few hours, at least two press reports have sought to legitimize or praise the groups that in recent years have carried out raids against the municipalities near the border, purely civilian villages without any type of defense, which have sometimes falsely claimed have captured.

In his peculiar and simplified vision, Cristian Segura describes the three groups of Russian partisans at the service of Kirilo Budanov. “There are three Russian armed groups that fight in the Ukrainian ranks, they are opponents of Vladimir Putin who consider that the time to confront him through political means has ended,” he says about the soldiers who, armed and equipped by kyiv with the financing that arrives from abroad, they attack the border villages, inhabited mainly by the elderly population. “Of these, the units that have been in the war the longest are the Russian Volunteer Corps (RDK), from the extreme right, and the Freedom Legion of Russia, with a liberal ideology close to the theses of Alexei Navalny, who died this February in a Russian prison,” he writes. “Unlike the other two units,” he claims of the Siberian battalion , “its soldiers are part of the Ukrainian International Legion. And also, unlike them, their objective is to decentralize Russia's power in favor of the regions and "liberate" their ethnic minorities.

This liberation of Russian minorities has been in recent years one of the arguments to advocate for the Balkanization of the Russian Federation, the dream of a sector, fundamentally made up of American neocons who seek to dismember the country as happened with Yugoslavia . This same week, for example, a summit organized by the “Post-Russian Free Nations Forum” is being held in the United States, a spiritual descendant of the anti-communist “Captive Nations Week” that was born during the Cold War.

The proxies that Ukraine and its Western allies - the press among them - rely on in this work are not far-right, Navalny-style liberals (although Navalny was not a European-style liberal either) or simple soldiers seeking to decentralize Russia. One of the soldiers presented by El País , for example, claims to want to liberate non-Russian nations from the Russian Federation and mentions, according to Cristian Segura, the example of Catalonia. The journalist sees no contradiction between this approach and the fact that the soldier fought during the Donbass war in Ukraine's aggression against a region that precisely asked for the right to have a certain autonomy from kyiv's imposition.

An exponent of the liberals of the Russian Freedom Legion is presented in an extensive report published in the last few hours by Politico . “Meet the Russian Christian who wants to overthrow Putin,” writes the outlet, which insists on the contrast between this unit and the RPK. “When we have enough forces, we will liberate an entire region of Russia,” says Caesar , the soldier interviewed. “We will organize a government. We will mobilize the population. We will train them. The rebellion will grow and we will advance to other regions until we march on Moscow,” he insists despite the fact that none of the raids carried out in Russia have achieved the slightest social support in the Russian Federation. Pawns of Kirilo Budanov's plans, these groups do not seek the favor of the population, but rather a destabilization that only favors kyiv in its propaganda intentions.

Towards the middle of the exalting report, Politico admits that the soldier was a member of the Russian Imperial Movement, “designated a terrorist organization by the United States.” There, Caesar obtained military training. That is the quarry of the groups that, according to Western journalists, aspire to liberate the Russian people . The soldier claims not to be “a crazy neo-Nazi or national socialist, or anything like that,” although he admits to being “on the extreme right” and declares himself a “Russian patriot,” although he claims to understand “the Tatars, Dagestanis and Chechens.” They also want to be the owners of their own land and they should be.”

That last statement is reminiscent of those made by the leader of the RDK, Denis Kapustin, Nikitin or White Rex , according to Politico , “rated by German authorities as one of the most influential neo-Nazi activists on the continent.” In the past, Nikitin has expressed his willingness to let the non-Russian regions of the Russian Federation go in order to obtain an ethnically Russian country. The Russian Volunteer Corps is as defined by its leader as Azov is by Andriy Biletsky. And like his counterpart in the Azov movement, Kapustin does not hide his political ideas. Just yesterday, one of the few Russian opposition journalists who has always considered unacceptable the use of neo-Nazis to fight against Russia, Leonid Ragozin, described a publication on social networks in which, following the celebration of the end of Ramadan, in the that Nikitin explains the reasons for his fight . “Nikitin/Kapustin claims that Russia is turning European cities into multi-ethnic cesspools . The post is illustrated with the video of the Eid al-Fitr celebration in the Mariupol mosque, occupied by Russia. The mosque, sponsored by Türkiye, was inaugurated in 2007, fifteen years before the occupation. Mariupol had a Muslim community from its beginnings,” writes the journalist, evidently opposed to Russian actions in Ukraine. Nikitin 's racist message was posted on a Telegram channel called White Powder.

Despite being increasingly difficult to defend as it is far beyond the extreme right that El País admits , the press continues to give voice to people like Kapustin, to whom Politico dedicated an article just a few weeks ago. Despite the attempt at legitimization that he makes and to which the medium lends itself, opinions such as the favorable mention of apartheid in South Africa show the political nature of the leaders of the groups that, according to the West, aspire to liberate Russia. In reality, transformed by the press into bad boys or simply Navalny-style liberals , their usefulness does not go beyond acting as pawns in a game of destabilization of the Russian Federation at the service of the most extreme voices of the security apparatus. from Ukraine. Tools that may come back into action soon.

https://slavyangrad.es/2024/04/19/peone ... e-budanov/

Google Translator

(Edited)

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From Cassad's Telegram account:

Colonelcassad



100 years ago, by decree of the Central Executive Committee of the USSR, the flag of the Soviet Union was approved - the Red Banner with the Hammer and Sickle.
Under this flag we flew into space, won the Great Patriotic War and created a superpower built on the principles of social justice.
The hatred of modern fascists for the Red Flag is understandable and natural.

They will never forgive us for these achievements of our people. But we remember - and this memory is the guarantee that they will not be able to destroy our past and our future.

Happy holiday, comrades! Happy Red Banner Day of the USSR!

play it LOUD, I never get tired of this.

**

Colonelcassad
Summary of the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation on the progress of the special military operation (as of April 18, 2024)

- In the Kupyansk direction, units of the West group of forces inflicted fire on the personnel and equipment of the 57th motorized infantry, 100th mechanized brigades of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, as well as the 31st brigade of the National Guard of Ukraine in the areas of the settlements of Sinkovka, Kharkov region, Novoselovskoye, Chervonaya Dibrova of the Lugansk People's Republic and Grigorovka of the Donetsk People's Republic.

In addition, two counterattacks by assault groups of the 3rd assault and 63rd mechanized brigades of the Ukrainian Armed Forces were repelled in the area of ​​the village of Terny, Donetsk People's Republic.

The Ukrainian Armed Forces lost up to 30 military personnel, a tank, two pickup trucks, a 152 mm Msta-B howitzer, and two 152 mm D-20 guns.

— In the Donetsk direction, units of the “Southern” group of forces improved the situation along the front line and inflicted fire damage on manpower and equipment of the 30th, 56th and 93rd mechanized brigades of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the areas of the settlements of Vasyukovka, Orekhovo-Vasilevka and Andreevka of the Donetsk People’s Republic Republic.

In the area of ​​the settlement of Krasnogorovka, Donetsk People's Republic, a counterattack of the assault group of the 46th airmobile brigade of the Ukrainian Armed Forces was repelled.

Enemy losses amounted to 590 military personnel, a tank and seven vehicles.

During the counter-battery fight, the following were hit: a 152 mm Akatsiya self-propelled artillery mount, a 105 mm M119 gun made in the USA, two Nota electronic warfare stations, as well as a field ammunition depot.

— In the Avdeevsky direction , units of the “Center” group of troops through active actions improved the tactical situation and defeated the formations of the 68th Jaeger, 24th, 47th mechanized brigades of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the areas of the settlements of Artemovo, Semenovka, Netailovo and Orlovka of the Donetsk People’s Republic.

Seven counterattacks of units of the 24th, 115th mechanized, 71st Jaeger brigades and the 78th separate air assault regiment of the Ukrainian Armed Forces were repelled in the areas of the settlements of Novokalinovo, Novgorodskoye, Vodyanoye, Pervomaiskoye, Berdychi and Novobakhmutovka of the Donetsk People's Republic.

The enemy lost up to 130 military personnel, an armored combat vehicle, a US-made 155 mm M777 howitzer and a 152 mm D-20 gun.

— In the South Donetsk direction, units of the Vostok group of forces occupied more advantageous positions and defeated the formations of the 58th motorized infantry, 72nd mechanized brigades of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, 102nd and 128th terrestrial defense brigades in the areas of the settlements of Vodyanoye, Ugledar, Urozhainoye , Staromayorskoye, Donetsk People's Republic and Malinovka, Zaporozhye region.

Enemy losses amounted to up to 140 military personnel, four vehicles, a British-made AS-90 “Braveheart” 152 mm self-propelled artillery mount, as well as three field ammunition depots.

— In the Kherson direction, units of the Dnepr group of troops inflicted complex fire damage on the personnel and equipment of the 65th mechanized brigade of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, the 36th Marine Brigade and the 126th Terrestrial Defense Brigade in the areas of the settlements of Rabotino, Zaporozhye region, Zmeevka, Nikolskoe and Ivanovka Kherson region.

Also, in the area of ​​​​the village of Verbovoye, Zaporozhye region, a counterattack of the assault group of the 15th operational brigade was repelled.

The losses of the Ukrainian Armed Forces amounted to up to 50 military personnel, two vehicles, as well as two 122 mm D-30 howitzers.

— Operational-tactical aviation, missile forces and artillery of groupings of troops of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation during the day destroyed: the control point of the operational command of the Armed Forces of Ukraine “North”, two launchers with a radar illumination and guidance of the S-300 anti-aircraft missile system, an ammunition depot for the operational-tactical grouping of the Armed Forces of Ukraine "Donetsk", weapons and fuel depots of the 101st Terrorist Defense Brigade, and also defeated enemy manpower and military equipment in 126 regions.

Over the past 24 hours, air defense systems have shot down 251 Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicles, two Tochka-U tactical missiles, and 33 Vampire missiles.

Operational-tactical aviation, missile forces and artillery of groupings of troops of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation were destroyed during the day: point directorate of the operational command of the Armed Forces of Ukraine “North”, two launchers with a radar illumination and guidance of the S-300 anti-aircraft missile system, an ammunition depot of the operational-tactical group of the Armed Forces of Ukraine “Donetsk”, weapons and fuel depots of the 101st technical defense brigade, as well as damage to manpower and enemy military equipment in 126 areas. Over the past 24 hours

, air defense systems have shot down 251 Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicles, two Tochka-U tactical missiles, and 33 Vampire missiles.

In total, since the beginning of the special military operation, the following have been destroyed: 583 aircraft, 270 helicopters, 21,734 unmanned aerial vehicles, 504 anti-aircraft missile systems, 15,801 tanks and other armored combat vehicles, 1,267 combat vehicles of multiple launch rocket systems, 8,945 field artillery guns and mortars, as well as 21,111 units of special military vehicles.

https://t.me/s/boris_rozhin

Google Translator

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'Fair Mobilization' and Corruption

Commentary on analysis by Ukrainian journalists Kurtev and Butusov. Corruption creating problems protecting the power grid.

EVENTS IN UKRAINE
APR 18, 2024

Yesterday, Yury Romanenko released a discussion with Viktor Kurtev on his youtube channel. I’ve discussed Romanenko on here before. Essentially, he is a Russian-speaker with various kooky schemes about how Ukraine needs to become a new pole of attraction for the ‘Russian world’, thereby replacing evil Moscow. He often invites (or at least used to) Arestovich on his show, and advocates a ‘wise nationalism’ instead of the ‘stupid cultural nationalism’ of the usual Ukrainian patriot crowd.



Anyway, his interview with Kurtev was all about energy. It’s a classic topic in Ukraine, one recently brought into focus by Russian attacks that destroyed 80% of Ukraine’s energy capacity according to prime minister Shmyhal.

I won’t get into Kurtev’s various predictions about Ukraine’s energy future. The numbers make the head spin and since everyone seems to have a different prediction, it comes off as overly speculative. What matters is that the country has grim prospects on that front.

What’s more interesting is Kurtev’s explanation of how this situation came into being. Kurtev published an article in late 2023 called ‘Concrete on Blood’. Aside from the content of the article, it is funny to note that it is a reference to the very popular Russian TV show ‘Word of a Boy - Blood on the Pavement’, which, to the chagrin of Ukrainian patriots, was also the most watched TV show in Ukraine last year.

According to Kurtev in his interview and article, the Ukrainian government has been engaging in some very self-destructive corruption when it comes to protecting its electro-energetic system. He even says that he sometimes suspects that “0.2% of those involved in this are Russian agents”.

His main problem is that Ukraine’s government has relied on huge contracts to private constructors to put up a bunch of concrete over electric power plants. These grandiose plans have been called ‘turtles’. However, they cost a huge amount of money and are unable to protect the plants from Russian missile attacks.

Interestingly, one of the key figures in this soon-to-unfold corruption scandal is Mustafa Naiem, the guy who started maidan with a fateful facebook post back in 2013. He has cycled through a wide variety of profitable government posts since 2014, all with dubious links to his original journalistic profession. For the past couple years he has occupied crucial posts in the ministry of infrastructure, and has been at the forefront of the concrete campaign.


Naiem receiving another award, doubtless for his sterling work in the struggle against corruption, about which he never shut up

Kurtev bemoans how hundreds of millions of US dollars are being wasted on useless concrete constructions, and argues that there is continuity between these endeavours and Zelensky’s ‘big build’ campaign of the pre-2022 years, which was often called ‘the big steal’, because of the huge corruption rent that government-sheltered contractors earned.

Kurtev was particularly indignant that this waste of resources takes away concrete from a more important front - the literal frontline, where Ukraine is in desperate need of concrete bunkers and trench fortifications.

This leads smoothly onto our second expert, Yuri Butusov, who never shuts up about the frontline’s concrete deficits. Butusov comes from a different camp to Romanenko and Kurtev. Butusov is the premiere Poroshenkite war journalist, and manager of the fittingly named InfoNapalm. He spends much of his time at the front with soldiers, sometimes filming himself with weapons in hand. He even uploaded a video of him personally shelling the enemy with artillery in 2021 (on ‘Holodomor day’), while the Minsk agreements were still in play as well, which even led to a criminal investigation by the Ukrainian government into the incident.

(Paywall)

https://eventsinukraine.substack.com/p/ ... corruption

**

April Events in Ukraine part 2

No demobilization, frontline poems of despair and beatings, protests against super-cemeteries, fragging attempts, memory battles

EVENTS IN UKRAINE
APR 17, 2024

Not everything is sunny on the other side of the border.

Strange events have been transpiring in Romania. A boat with explosives attached to it was discovered by Romanian officials. Romanian, Ukrainian and Russian defense analysts all have their own interpretations of what it was, with Defense Romania even claiming it was a Ukrainian drone intended to destroy a Russian ship. Make of that what you will.



Meanwhile, the Romanian government has adopted a resolution stating that Moldova will be reincorporated into Romania ‘through the EU or otherwise’. In response, the anti-NATO region of Gagauzia declared that if Moldova joined with Romania, it would declare independence from Moldova. In less unusual news, a man was ‘saved’ by Ukrainian border patrol after wandering for a week in the Carpathian forest trying to reach Romania.

No shortage of morbid events
The government has been trying to construct a super-cemetery for fallen AFU soldiers in the Kiev region. Local villagers have protested against it, supposedly because they are against logging. The minister of veteran affairs has been quite displeased with their reaction, saying ‘they don’t want to listen, only shout’.


‘The National Military Memorial Cemetery’, as envisioned by its designers.

Villagers don’t like how 260 hectares of forest need to be cut down for the cemetery, and point out how money should be spent on drones rather than memorials.


If the chance to be buried in brand-new super-cemeteries isn’t enough, AFU officers have shared some new methods for how they motivate the newly-mobilized to fight. A well-known Ukrainian marine who goes under the name ‘Night Stalker’ on facebook revealed that he sometimes shoots over their head in the trenches. He mentioned at a range of other methods, including beatings, and more specific ‘methods’ that he didn’t go into. He also said that they can simply be sent to prison, ‘where they won’t fuck around for 10 seconds’. ‘If they don’t want to dig a trench, they have a slightly worse alternative, and that works quite well’.


While the government has announced some monetary and mortgage benefits for the mobilized, they and the ~$500 dollar fine for draft-dodging is unlikely to have much effect when the likely result of heading to the front is well-known. Uncharacteristically for the Ukrainian government, human rights ombudsmen Lubinets even said that there ‘have been shameful cases’ where unprepared men were sent to the front. Who would have thought.

(Paywall)

https://eventsinukraine.substack.com/p/ ... ine-part-2

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US Aid to Ukraine Not to Change Situation in the Front: Russia


Ukrainian soldier carrying U.S. military material. | Photo: X/ @UATV_en

Published 18 April 2024

This week the U.S. House of Representatives will consider a new 61-billion-aid bill for Ukraine.


On Thursday, Kremlin spokesman Dmitri Peskov warned that US assistance to Ukraine would not influence the situation on the battlefronts.

"The U.S, aid cannot in any way affect the outcome of the situation on the fronts. All experts, both specialized and not so specialized, can now clearly see the situation on the battlefield, which is far from favorable for the Ukrainian side," he said.

This week, the U.S. House of Representatives announced that it will consider a new US$61 billion aid bill for Ukraine.

"In any case, whatever the form of this aid, it is indeed about provoking Ukraine to continue fighting until the last Ukrainian, ensuring benefits for the United States," Peskov pointed out.

The Russian official added that Americans ensure that "a very important part of the allocated resources remains in the U.S. military-industrial complex."

"Ukraine now not only has to fight for the aid by providing gains to Americans, but it also has to fight until the last Ukrainian. They also burden it with debts. It's the favorite colonial policy of the United States," he emphasized.

Although the package to be considered in the U.S. House of Representatives is of equal value to the one approved in the Senate in February, the new proposal differs in how the aid to Ukraine is delivered, with the funds being provided as part of a loan.

https://www.telesurenglish.net/news/US- ... -0006.html

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Poland’s Latest Russian Spy Scandal Might Be A Case Of Ukrainian Entrapment



ANDREW KORYBKO
APR 19, 2024

This case isn’t as clear-cut as the media has made it seem if one reads between the lines of the National Prosecutor’s official statement about what allegedly happened.

Poland’s National Prosecutor claimed that a Polish citizen was detained in cooperation with the Ukrainian secret police on suspicion of “reporting his readiness to act for foreign intelligence” against his homeland. According to their official statement, the individual “established contacts with citizens of the Russian Federation directly involved in the war in Ukraine” and was tasked with providing information on the security of the Rzeszow Airport, which the state claimed could have been used to kill Zelensky.

This case isn’t as clear-cut as the media has made it seem if one reads between the lines. For starters, the National Prosecutor’s statement makes it appear like this person was the one that approached what they believed to be representatives of the Russian military and intelligence community, not vice-versa. Although it’s claimed that this wannabe agent successfully made contact with them and was then given specific tasks, the involvement of the Ukrainian secret police raises questions about all of this.

While there’s a chance that they might have intercepted secret communications between the now-detained Polish citizen and what are presented as his Russian-based handlers, it also can’t be ruled out that they set the entire thing up. To elaborate, some pro-Kiev Ukrainians speak Russian as a native language, which enables them to easily impersonate representatives of the Russian military and intelligence community after some basic training to learn their lingo.

They might therefore have been running certain Telegram channels that post pro-Russian content but are really run by the Ukrainian secret police with the intent of entrapping those naïve members of their audience who might reach out to them asking how they can help that country’s cause. In this case, that Pole might have messaged someone from one of those channels, after which they were given tasks by a person who they wrongly assumed was a representative of Russia’s military or intelligence community.

That would account for why they were reportedly told to provide information about Rzeszow Airport’s security for the possible purpose of assassinating Zelensky. The reason why this is so odd is because Russia never made an attempt to take Zelensky out during his many visits to the front lines. It’s therefore extremely unlikely that the first time that they’d try to do this would be when he’s on NATO soil and Russia’s assassination of him there could spark World War III due to it being an attack on Poland.

The Ukrainian secret police have a political interest in fearmongering about the aforementioned scenario, however, which is yet another argument in favor of the theory that this case isn’t as clear-cut as it seems. Moreover, if they weren’t involved in a significant capacity, then the National Prosecutor wouldn’t have applauded their role in its official statement. Quite clearly, they weren’t just passive bystanders who simply passed along information, but active participants in this operation.

Putting the pieces together, the argument can compellingly be made that Poland’s latest Russian spy scandal is probably a case of Ukrainian entrapment. That country’s secret police impersonated members of the Russian military and intelligence community, likely on pro-Russian Telegram channels, with the intent of naïve followers reaching out to them asking how they can help that country’s cause. That Pole who presumably messaged them was then set up to create the latest anti-Russian media sensation.

https://korybko.substack.com/p/polands- ... py-scandal

[blindpig]

The front, recruitment and the "normal life" of the rear
POSTED BY @NSANZO ⋅ 20/04/2024



“Ukraine is headed for defeat,” is the title of an article published this week by Politico , one of the many media outlets that add to the catastrophic vision of events on the front. A day before, another of his articles warned of the danger of the fall of Chasov Yar, one of the centers of the fighting at the moment and whose loss would endanger "the last strong points of Ukraine in the Donetsk region" and would give rise to opportunity for Russia to “launch an offensive on Konstantinovka, Druzhovka, Kramatorsk and Slavyansk.” That is, without a doubt, the objective since the beginning of the advance in the region, although the slow pace of progress, in which Russia has to fight for every town in a fortified area during the eight-year Donbass war, suggests that, barring the unexpected collapse of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, this offensive will not be a blietzkrieg or a walk. The situation of the Ukrainian troops has deteriorated noticeably in that very important sector, but the voices that warn of defeat generally seek to use that risk as an argument to demand from Western partners more weapons for kyiv, especially anti-missile systems.

Blind faith in the West and in victory has disappeared and an increasingly important part of the population wonders if fighting until final victory, with the implications of time, resources and suffering that it requires, is the most appropriate thing to do. Pessimism is not limited to the civilian population, but extends among the troops, once praised for their enormous fighting spirit and sky-high morale. “Just ask a Ukrainian soldier if he still believes that the West will support Kiev as long as it takes . That promise rings hollow when your artillery unit has not had a projectile to fire for four weeks, as a soldier from the front complained,” writes Politico , accepting a clearly exaggerated statement. It is evident that there is a strong Russian artillery superiority, but Ukraine continues to fire 155-millimeter projectiles against non-strategic targets such as the outskirts of Donetsk, an unequivocal sign that the shortage is relative. The pessimism continues in the article, which adds that “Ukrainian forces are not only running out of ammunition. “Western delays in sending aid mean the country is dangerously short of something even harder to supply than shells: the fighting spirit needed to win.”

This week, Volodymyr Zelensky finally signed the new law on mobilization, with which Ukraine hopes to recruit a large, although undetermined, number of soldiers with which to replenish its ranks and expand its contingent without demobilizing the soldiers who have been there for two years struggling. From now on, both in the country and abroad, all Ukrainian men of military age (between 18 and 60 years old) must carry their updated military card at all times to avoid being exposed to fines or administrative reprisals. Men who do not wish to be conscripted have two months to renew their passports and permits of all kinds if they intend to try to avoid conscription. At the time the rule comes into force, the lack of a military card prior to registration at the recruitment office will make these procedures impossible.

As Politico warns , the number of men who are not willing to fight has increased worryingly. “The morale of the troops is grim, depressed by the incessant bombings, the lack of advanced weapons and the losses on the battlefield,” laments Politico , one of the media that most vigorously defends the Biden administration's policy of fight until the defeat of Russia. “In cities hundreds of kilometers from the front, the crowds of young people who queued to join the army in the first months of the war have disappeared. Nowadays, would-be recruits evade the draft and spend their evenings in nightclubs. Many have left the country,” he insists. In that brief passage, the journalist mentions two important aspects: the flight from the country to avoid conscription and the return to normal life. Both point to a lack of will to fight on the front. This position also explains how unpopular the new law on mobilization has been, throughout the process of media debate.

The position of continuing to fight, whether until recovering the territories lost since February 24, 2022 or territorial integrity according to the 1991 borders, continues to exceed, according to surveys, the part of the population that defends a compromise solution. However, the high proportion of people who refuse to fight personally is also representative. In other words, the majority position continues to be to continue the war, as long as it does not involve going to the front. This is shown not only by the impressions of journalists and correspondents on the ground, but also by sociological studies. One of them shows that almost 54% of the population includes, at least in part, those who evade the draft. In another, much more worrying for Ukraine, 49% of the population of Western Ukraine, 42% of the central regions, 52% of the southern and 60% of the eastern regions refuse to participate in the war . The increase in percentage as the distance to the front decreases is evident. It is in those regions where the war is felt most closely compared to those where, despite the risk of missile or drone attacks against military targets and the economic conditions that war implies, life is trying to return to relative normality.

The Politico article explains the position of the Ukrainian population by equating it with that of other European countries, “where recent opinion polls suggest that large numbers would refuse to be recruited even if their countries were attacked.” But “Ukraine is a country at war” in which, according to the journalist, “this existential struggle cannot be won without mobilizing the entire nation.”

However, Politico is surprised , “while the conflict continues, Ukrainians living in Kiev and in the center and west of the country - far from the front lines - seem in some ways willing to endure the war that ravages the east, with "so that he can return to his normal life." This aspect - that of the return to normality, the reopening of restaurants, bars, the weekend parties in Odessa or Kiev - has been presented as a heroic act of a people that does not kneel before an external attack. In this argument, the nuance is forgotten that it is an entire social stratum, the middle class, willing to demand that their less fortunate compatriots fight on the front until a complete victory that, then, they would claim as their own. The images of normality in the cities of the Ukrainian rear contrast with the situation in the towns near the front, on both sides of that line of contact, where the suffering of war is daily in the form of danger and misery, not just geopolitical calculations. .

This relative normality is also reminiscent of the attitude of a large part of Ukrainian society during the eight years of war in Donbass, a time in which the population continued its life while the consequences were felt only in a distant region and in such an unimportant town. that there was not a single relevant social movement that advocated for their rights or that really sought an end to the conflict. That war was completely ignored, the normal life of Ukrainian cities was something that was not questioned because it was not even an aspect that crossed the minds of the population, its authorities or foreign partners. Since 2022, any sign of civilian life has been presented as heroic. Now, however, these images are the symptom of a chronic conflict on the front - no longer like the low-intensity war of the Minsk years, but rather as a high-intensity land conflict - while the rear advocates continuing to fight. As long as you can do it remotely.

https://slavyangrad.es/2024/04/20/29583/

Google Translator

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From Cassad's Telegram account:

Colonelcassad



Massive night UAV attack on Russian territory

At night, Ukrainian formations carried out a massive attack on various regions of Russia. The Russian Ministry of Defense reported on the destruction of 50 drones shot down and intercepted by electronic warfare and air defense systems.

Everything was shot down:
- 26 UAVs in the Belgorod region;
- 10 UAVs in the Bryansk region;
- eight UAVs in the Kursk region;
- two in the Tula region;
- one each in Smolensk, Ryazan, Kaluga and Moscow regions.

In addition, the Ukrainian Armed Forces attacked several objects in the border zone of the Belgorod region with drones . A UAV fell at night in the village of Istobnoye , but there were no casualties. And in Poroz, as a result of a drone drop, a private house caught fire, killing two civilians.

In addition, in Kardymovo, Smolensk region, according to some reports, a fire broke out in the area of ​​an oil depot, and in Vygonichi, Bryansk region, UAV debris fell on a substation, which also led to a fire.

***

Russian Ministry of Defense
✔
Summary of the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation on the progress of the special military operation (for the period from April 13 to April 19, 2024

From April 13th to April 19th of this year. The Armed Forces of the Russian Federation, in response to attempts by the Kiev regime to damage Russian energy and industrial facilities, carried out 34 group strikes with high-precision long-range air and sea-based weapons, as well as unmanned aerial vehicles, as a result of which the following were hit : energy industry facilities, enterprises of the military-industrial complex and railway infrastructure of Ukraine, air defense systems, arsenals and fuel storage facilities for military equipment.

Training centers for unmanned aerial vehicle operators, temporary deployment points for units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, nationalist formations and foreign mercenaries were also hit.

In the Kupyansk direction, during the week, units of the “Western” group of troops improved the situation along the front line and defeated the manpower and equipment of 12 brigades of the armed forces and the National Guard of Ukraine in the areas of the settlements of Kupyansk, Sinkovka, Zagoruykovka, Kotlyarovka in the Kharkov region and Stelmakhovka in the Luhansk People’s Republic Republic.

In addition, 11 counterattacks of the formations of the 3rd assault, 21st, 63rd mechanized brigades of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, the 12th special forces brigade of the National Guard and the 125th terrestrial defense brigade were repelled in the areas of the settlements of Chervonaya Dibrova of the Lugansk People's Republic, Torskoye and Terny of the Donetsk People's Republic Republic.

Enemy losses amounted to more than 380 military personnel, a tank , nine armored combat vehicles and 16 vehicles.

During the counter-battery fight , 18 field artillery guns were hit , including three US-made M109 "Paladin" self-propelled artillery mounts , and six ammunition depots and five electronic warfare stations ( "Nota" and "Enclave" ) were destroyed .

In the Donetsk direction, as a result of successful actions of units of the “Southern” group of forces, more advantageous positions were occupied and the manpower and equipment of four assault, two airmobile and six mechanized brigades of the Armed Forces of Ukraine were defeated in the areas of the settlements of Belogorovka, Razdolovka, Orekhovo-Vasilevka, Bogdanovka, Kleshcheevka and Kurdyumovka, Donetsk People's Republic.

Seven counterattacks of units of the 46th airmobile and 10th mountain assault brigades of the Ukrainian Armed Forces were repelled in the areas of the settlements of Krasnogorovka and Novomikhailovka of the Donetsk People's Republic.

The enemy lost over 3,550 troops, four tanks, five armored combat vehicles and 87 vehicles.

In addition, during the counter-battery fight, 31 field artillery guns were hit , of which 14 were Western-made, and four electronic warfare stations (Nota and Enclave) and seven ammunition depots were destroyed.

In the Avdeevsky direction, units of the "Center" group of troops, during active operations, liberated the village of Pervomaiskoye of the Donetsk People's Republic and continued to advance into the depths of the enemy's defense.

With the support of aviation strikes, artillery fire and heavy flamethrower systems, 53 counterattacks of assault groups of nine enemy brigades were repelled in the areas of the settlements of Leninskoye, Novgorodskoye, Novokalinovo, Berdychi, Umanskoye and Netaylovo of the Donetsk People's Republic.

Over the course of a week, in this direction, the Ukrainian Armed Forces lost more than 2,170 military personnel, seven tanks, 13 armored combat vehicles, 35 vehicles, 19 field artillery guns, including two M109 Paladin self-propelled artillery mounts and a US-made M777 howitzer .

In the South Donetsk direction, units of the Vostok group of troops improved the tactical position and defeated the formations of the 58th motorized infantry, 72nd mechanized brigades of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, three brigades of the defense and a brigade of the National Guard of Ukraine in the areas of the settlements of Ugledar, Urozhaynoye, Staromayorskoye of the Donetsk People's Republic, Priyutnoye, Mirnoye, Malinovka and Lugovskoye, Zaporozhye region.

Enemy losses amounted to up to 760 military personnel, a tank , 22 vehicles, a Grad MLRS combat vehicle , 14 field artillery guns , eight of them Western-made. Two electronic warfare stations ( Nota and Bukovel-AD ) and four field ammunition depots

were also destroyed .

In the Kherson direction, the coordinated actions of units of the Dnepr group of troops defeated the manpower and equipment of the 65th, 117th mechanized brigades of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the 35th, 36th marine brigades, the 121st, 126th military defense brigades and the 15th 1st brigade of the National Guard of Ukraine in the areas of the settlements of Orekhov, Rabotino, Shcherbaki, Kamenskoye in the Zaporozhye region, Mikhailovka, Zmeevka, Berislav, Ivanovka and Nikolskoye in the Kherson region.

The enemy lost up to 365 military personnel, 24 vehicles, 12 field artillery guns, including six howitzers made in the USA, Germany and Poland, as well as three electronic warfare stations ( Nota and Enclave ).

During the week, missile forces, artillery and unmanned aerial vehicles of groups of troops of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation destroyed : three MiG-29 fighters and four An-26 military transport aircraft of the Ukrainian Air Force at the home airfield, two air target guidance radars and four anti-aircraft launchers missile system S-300, as well as a launcher for the IRIS-T anti-aircraft missile system manufactured in Germany.

During the week, aviation and air defense systems shot down 10 ATACMS operational-tactical missiles made in the USA, six Storm Shadow cruise missiles made in Great Britain, five Hammer guided bombs made in France and JDAM made in the USA, two HARM anti-radar missiles made in the USA, four aircraft US-made MALD decoys , two Tochka-U tactical missiles , 78 HIMARS , Vampire and Uragan missiles , and 1,278 unmanned aerial vehicles.

Within a week, 27 Ukrainian servicemen surrendered .

In total, since the beginning of the special military operation, the following have been destroyed : 590 aircraft, 270 helicopters, 21,882 unmanned aerial vehicles, 506 anti-aircraft missile systems, 15,802 tanks and other armored combat vehicles, 1,267 combat vehicles of multiple launch rocket systems, 8,981 field artillery and mortar guns, as well as 21,143 units of special military vehicles.

https://t.me/s/boris_rozhin

Google Translator

********

Russell Bentley killed
April 19, 21:31



In Donetsk, under unknown circumstances, the famous American militiaman Russell Bentley (call sign “Texas”), who had been in Donbass since 2014, was killed. Bentley's death was confirmed by military correspondent Sladkov.
Previously, Russell Bentley's wife stated that he was being held at the location of the 5th Brigade of the 1st AK by unidentified persons.

Actually, there are more and more questions about this story - where Bentley was killed, who killed him and for what - it is absolutely unclear. I hope the Russian Investigative Committee and military counterintelligence will deal with this matter, which obviously has a wide public resonance.





May Texas rest in peace.

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/9103408.html

Never forget, he came to Donbass to fight Nazis and for socialism.

They swam across the Dnieper and surrendered
April 19, 14:01



Three military officers decided not to go to feed the fish, so they stole a boat, crossed the Dnieper and surrendered to the Russian military. They made the right choice and will live. (Video at link.)

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/9102335.html

Google Translator

[blindpig]

Arms for Ukraine, benefits for Washington
POSTED BY @NSANZO ⋅ 04/21/2024



"After months of delays and votes against, congressmen have authorized voting this Saturday in plenary - where it will surely be approved - a bill that allocates 60,000 million dollars (about 56,000 million euros) for military and economic assistance to the country invaded by Russia,” El País wrote yesterday morning in reference to the imminent vote on new financing for Ukraine. “The step is the result of an unusual alliance between moderate Republicans and Democrats to defeat the blockade of the group of ultra-conservative Republicans, staunchly opposed to allocating a single dollar more to Kiev,” he added, giving an extraordinary epic to something that has been the norm. over the last few decades, in which nothing has united both sides of the American establishment like increased military spending. Despite the sudden forgetfulness of the press, opposition to foreign wars and their financing has been, among both Democrats and Republicans, an exception and not the norm. “In a very unusual situation, more legislators from the Democratic minority voted in favor of authorization,” the article insists, determined not to remember that belligerence has been a hallmark of the Democratic Party for decades.

The delay in the approval of new US funds for the war was always only temporary, a collateral victim of the internal situation in the United States, mired in the partisan struggle typical of an election year in which the candidate wants to differentiate himself from the current president. . The Trumpist wing has managed, using Ukraine as a political tool, to pressure Biden towards positions more to the right both in the disputes with China and especially in anti-immigration matters, where the Republicans have managed to very easily tilt the Democratic administration towards their positions. . In this process in which the positions of both parties are increasingly similar, the visit to Ukraine of Lindsey Graham, Republican and fanatical defender of the war against Russia since 2014, marked a turning point. It was there that the idea of ​​military assistance on credit was first raised directly with Zelensky as a political proposal. For a few days, until Trump's implicit support became known, kyiv navigated between the anger of the first moments to acceptance, a change in which both the need to accept all possible assistance, be it in the format Whatever it is, like the certainty that the debts that Ukraine is contracting in these years are absolutely unviable and can never be paid.

Economic motivations have played a special role in the change in the Republican position. Although the Democrats and part of the Republicans - fundamentally the neoconservative wing - have tried to present as the great claim of this war that spending on the Ukrainian Armed Forces is actually an investment in national security and an opportunity to militarily defeat an enemy historically, that argument cannot compete with that of economic benefits. The efforts of Andriy Ermak, head of the Office of the President of Ukraine, to attract the attention of Trump and his party by appealing to Reagan and the discourse of the free world against Moscow's authoritarianism have not achieved what the promise of increase of military production and succulent contracts for the American military-industrial complex. It is there where Trump has found a common language with the Democrats who seem to continue fighting against the Soviet Union in times of the Cold War and the neoconservatives, defenders of war as a tool to maintain American hegemony.

It is no coincidence that, just a few hours before the legislation that will resume the flow of weapons, ammunition and US financing to Ukraine was voted in Congress, what its author, the journalist and conservative Republican think-tanker Marc Thiessen, defined it as “a full-page essay” in which the arguments did not even cover the entire two columns on the left, while a map and a summary of the districts that would win thanks to investment in Ukraine took up the rest of the space in the printed newspaper. The flags that accompany his name on his social media profile - Ukraine, Taiwan and Israel - make his intentions clear.

“Providing military aid to Ukraine is the right thing to do,” he insists, arguing that “American-made weapons are protecting Ukrainian civilians from Russian bombing, preventing Russian forces from taking Ukrainian cities and massacring their inhabitants, and decimating the military threat.” "Russian for NATO." The motivations of the Republican commentator do not differ at all from those of the American Democrats, nor from those of the European Christian Democrats, Social Democrats or Greens, who have accepted as dogma the possibility that Russia, which fights people to people in the most remote part of the Ukrainian territories, will magically show up at the NATO border and attack it. “Helping Ukraine defeat unjust Russian aggression is in our moral and national security interest,” says Thiessen, who had opened the article with a question a few paragraphs earlier. “If you knew that most of the military aid that Congress approves for Ukraine is spent right here in the United States, quite possibly in your own congressional district, bolstering our defense production capacity and creating good jobs in the manufacturing industry for American workers, would you want your representatives in Washington to support it?”

“Our military aid to Ukraine is also revitalizing our defense industrial base, creating hot production lines for the weapons we need to deter potential adversaries and creating manufacturing jobs in the United States. That's because 90% of the $68 billion in military and related aid that Congress has approved so far does not go to Ukraine but is spent in the United States, according to an analysis by Mark Cancian of the Center for Strategic and International”, he states and later details, state by state, the economic benefits in terms of jobs created and contracts obtained that each company will obtain. All this, yes, framed in the deterrence of future opponents. Ukraine is thus only a tool with which to justify an increase in spending by the country whose military budget stands out so much compared to the rest that it exceeds the sum of all its allies and opponents.

The delay in approving new US economic resources for Ukraine has not only had implications for US domestic politics. By halting new arms shipments, the Biden administration has achieved something that its predecessor also sought: forcing European allies to increase their military spending. In Trump's time, when rearmament was not yet an absolute priority, the US demand to comply with NATO's requirement to spend 2% of GDP on defense was taken as an impossible imposition labeled as authoritarianism. Times have changed and European partners have reacted to the war and the possible lack of American support with a militaristic vigor that has caused Macron to raise the possibility of sending Euro-Atlantic troops to Ukraine, increase pressure on Germany to send missiles with which Ukraine could attack Russia, the increase in military budgets could be consolidated, any government with even the slightest doubt about assistance to Kiev could be branded as pro-Russian , and the Western blocs - the EU, NATO and the G7 - could frantically search among their Patriot arsenals to send to war and markets in which to acquire the 155-millimeter projectiles that Ukrainian troops use, for example, against the city of Donetsk.

Politically, the war in Ukraine has meant for the United States the certainty of having a European Union increasingly subordinated to Washington. With no foreign policy other than the expansion and maintenance of the status quo of the current American hegemony, Brussels has never been able to have its own agenda that could advance in an independent direction. Incapable by definition - post-war Europe was designed to depend militarily on the American security umbrella - of supplying with its industry the military needs of a conventional land war like the current one, the market to which it turns as a priority is always the same, the US. These economic benefits are added to those implied, as both Democratic and Republican think-tankers publicize to the four winds , US military assistance. It is the argument of war as an economic transaction. The war must continue and it will do so quickly. Yesterday, even before the measures were finally approved that allocate the $61 billion that Zelensky has been waiting for for months, the American media published statements from the Pentagon confirming that the first military assistance package was already prepared, ready to be sent immediately to Ukraine.

https://slavyangrad.es/2024/04/21/armas ... ashington/

Google Translator

******

From Cassad's Telegram account:

Colonelcassad
Summary of the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation on the progress of the special military operation (as of April 20, 2024)

- Units of the West group of forces occupied more advantageous positions and inflicted fire damage on the personnel and equipment of the 77th airmobile, 43rd mechanized brigades The Ukrainian Armed Forces and the 110th Terrestrial Defense Brigade in the areas of the settlements of Berezovka, Senkovo ​​and Zagoruykovka, Kharkov region.

Three attacks by assault groups of the 63rd mechanized brigade of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, the 12th and 18th brigades of the National Guard of Ukraine were repelled in the areas of the settlements of Chervonaya Dibrova, Lugansk People's Republic and Grigorovka, Donetsk People's Republic.

The enemy lost up to 30 military personnel, two armored combat vehicles and three vehicles.

- Units of the “Southern” group of forces improved the situation along the front line and inflicted fire damage on manpower and equipment of the 79th air assault, 46th airmobile, 22nd and 67th mechanized brigades of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the areas of the settlements of Maksimilyanovka, Stupochki, Paraskovievka and Kalinina, Donetsk People's Republic.

Three counterattacks by formations of the 28th mechanized brigade of the Ukrainian Armed Forces were repelled west of the village of Krasnoye, Donetsk People's Republic.

Enemy losses amounted to up to 610 military personnel, two armored combat vehicles, five cars, a 152 mm Msta-B howitzer, a 152 mm D-20 gun, an ammunition depot, and a Nota electronic warfare station.

- Units of the “Center” group of troops through active actions improved the tactical situation and repelled eight counterattacks by assault groups of the 25th Airborne, 23rd, 24th, 100th and 115th mechanized brigades of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the areas of the settlements of Novobakhmutovka, Leninskoye , Pervomaiskoye and Novokalinovo, Donetsk People's Republic.

The Ukrainian Armed Forces lost up to 355 military personnel, two infantry fighting vehicles and five vehicles.

During the counter-battery fight, the following were hit: a Czech-made 152 mm Dana self-propelled gun, a 152 mm D-20 gun, a 122 mm Gvozdika self-propelled artillery mount, and a 122 mm D-30 howitzer.

- Units of the Vostok grouping of forces occupied more advantageous positions and defeated the manpower and equipment of the 72nd mechanized brigade of the Ukrainian Armed Forces and the 128th terrestrial defense brigade in the areas of the settlements of Staromayorskoye and Urozhaynoye of the Donetsk People's Republic.

The losses of the Ukrainian Armed Forces amounted to up to 120 military personnel, two armored combat vehicles, three cars, a 155 mm M777 howitzer made in the USA, four ammunition depots, as well as the Enclave electronic warfare station.

- Units of the Dnepr group of troops inflicted fire damage on the personnel and equipment of the 23rd National Guard Brigade and the 121st Terrorist Defense Brigade in the areas of Nikopol, Dnepropetrovsk Region, Mikhailovka and Zolotaya Balka, Kherson Region.

The enemy lost over 30 military personnel, four vehicles, a 152 mm D-20 gun, a 122 mm D-30 howitzer and a 105 mm US-made M119 gun.

Operational-tactical aviation, missile forces and artillery from groups of troops of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation hit an aviation fuel storage facility of the Ukrainian Air Force, two transport infrastructure facilities used for military purposes, as well as manpower and military equipment of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in 112 regions.

Air defense systems shot down a Su-25 aircraft of the Ukrainian Air Force, 213 Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicles, as well as five Hammer guided bombs made in France.

In total, since the beginning of the special military operation, the following have been destroyed: 591 aircraft, 270 helicopters, 22,095 unmanned aerial vehicles, 506 anti-aircraft missile systems, 15,812 tanks and other armored combat vehicles, 1,267 combat vehicles of multiple launch rocket systems, 8,991 field artillery and mortar guns, as well as 21,183 units of special military vehicles.

https://t.me/s/boris_rozhin

Google Translator

******

SITREP 4/19/24: A Small Gust for Ukraine's Sails?

SIMPLICIUS
APR 20, 2024
Today we have some interesting thematic developments in the context of Ukraine’s future sustainment outlook.

The most talked about of course is the headway being made for the Ukrainian aid bill, which is set to be voted on in both the House and Senate this weekend and early next week, owing to Speaker Mike Johnson’s eye-opening U-turn. The U-turn was in fact so ‘sudden’ as to imply sinister developments behind the scenes—perhaps kompromat waving, threats, and the like. From an alleged CIA/NSA whistleblower:



You can see below how drastically his tone has changed into an uncharacteristically histrionic one: (Video at link.)

This comes after he suddenly proclaimed himself a “wartime speaker”, which was echoed ominously by other congressmen:



In any case, the voting is moving forward, though there is no clear indication yet what will happen; Matt Gaetz has reportedly signaled that unfortunately the vote stands a good chance to pass, though they are still bitterly fighting it. Here’s the latest update:





However, while the pro-Ukrainian crowd rejoices, it’s not clear what real benefit the aid would bring, should it pass. For instance, days ago the provisions of the alleged bill had leaked which apparently showed the vast majority of the $48B Ukrainian aid going to various American DOD scams:



If there’s any accuracy to the above, it appears that when you take away the civil funds to the Ukrainian government, and the DOD’s own beak-wetting double-dip, all that’s really left for Ukrainian ‘weapons’ is about $14B or less. And in fact Johnson appears to confirm this when he says that he changed the bill so that 80% of it now represents replenishment of American stocks, rather than new weapons for Ukraine: (Video at link.)

Certainly that’s still a fairly significant amount of money, all things considered, but it doesn’t even begin to address the much bigger issue of there not being any arms left to spend that money on.

For instance, recall the claimed million shells that Czech Republic was said to have found for Ukraine. Now Peter Pavel has confirmed they’ve only made agreements for an alleged 180k and have possibly found another “120k” shells, though they haven’t been purchased yet. That entire number is basically what Russia manufactures per month.

That’s not to mention the fact that Western ammo factories continue to mysteriously go up in smoke these past two weeks:








I wonder what it could be?

Some logically suspect that the urgent increase in production schedules has simply overtaxed the aging and stressed infrastructure and workforce at these sites, which understandably results in elevated risks of industrial ‘accidents’.

But moving on.

The other significant event which dovetails with the aid bill is that Zelensky has finally signed the mobilization bill, which—most significantly—lowers the mobilization age from 27 to 25. By far the most controversial was the removing of the provision that allowed Ukrainian servicemen who’ve served 36 months to be demobilized. This has created an uproar with soldiers posting death threats to the Rada, like this one: (Video at link.)

In spite of that, the final ratification of the bill means Ukraine could now stand to mobilize a significant amount of new troops, some estimating 200-500k—or at least that’s the wishful target.

This new chart purports to show the amount of eligible men in each age group. Each bar below represents a year, so one can see for instance that 25 and 26 are somewhere around the 180k or so:



Since the mobilization opened up those two extra years, together that would open up a bit under 400k newly eligible, if the chart is accurate. But when you factor in all the various forms of attrition that realistically happen, i.e. draft dodging in all its varieties, then the real amount could be less than half of that, or even worse.

And for those wondering why there is such a dip in Ukrainian men in their 20s, the explanation I got was that these were men born precisely in the ‘dark ages’ period of the post-Soviet collapse, which means the birthrates were falling drastically then, resulting in far less people being born. It shoots up for the age 5-15 group because presumably in the 2000s the birthrate rose a bit in those brief economically hopeful internet bubble years, before collapsing again in the post-Maidan period.

Anyway, this further means that we’re set for quite a showdown for sometime this summer. That’s because if the aid bill is to pass and the heavy mobilization begins, the influx of new money, weapons, plus large amounts of men could coincide with the long-expected Russian offensive. Of course, it will not change the course of the war, but it could mean a much bloodier meatgrinder that will result in Russia incurring far more losses as it advances. That’s because the cheap defensive weapons most effective against advances, like mines, basic RPGs, small arms ammunition, drones, mortars—are things that have never been in short supply, and a flush of new aid cash could bring a new bonanza of replenishment for them.

Another example. Some sources state that a large batch of new ATACMs missiles will be opened up with the aid bill, and these missiles have proved to be relatively effective. Not wunderwaffe by any means, but effective enough to incur losses and potentially—in large enough number—hamper Russia’s logistics rear to make advance much more painful. A new ATACMs strike has just successfully been carried out on Dzhankoi airbase in Crimea, destroying what’s said to be an entire deployment of S-300s, or what Ukrainians claim were S-400s. The missile parts have now been recovered and identified as ATACMs:



Ukraine released the launch footage, showing around 6 ATACMs being launched from the right bank of the Dnieper, while Russian sources claimed there were up to 12 missiles, with 7+ being shot down: (Video at link.)

That said, the Russian MOD has claimed that up to 10 ATACMs were shot down in another direction the very next day—though we have no real evidence.

The point being, given the somewhat questionable shootdown ability against the ATACMs demonstrated thus far, it could pose a bit of a problem if provided in much larger quantity, particularly at a time when Russia will be gearing up for a large offensive, which means huge stores of munitions will be laid up at brigade[/img] HQs, as well as large manpower concentrations, etc.

As an aside, for every such occasional blow that Ukraine delivers, Russia gives back at least 4 or 5 big ones. In the past week alone we’ve had several major successful strikes, such as on the Ukrainian base in Dnipro, with several Mig-29s and S-300 systems destroyed: (Video at link.)


For which AFU obituaries already began rolling in:



As well as a big blow on another AFU and mercenary troop concentration in a Chernigov hotel, which Western cretins like McFaul tried to spin as an attack on a civilian complex, but—as I attached below his message—one can see admissions from AFU accounts of the large amount of military casualties at the site:



So, clearly, whatever minor successes Ukraine has, Russia continues vastly out-attritioning them.

<snip>

Today Rezident UA channel reported the following:

#Inside
MI-6 transferred new intelligence to the Office of the President and the General Staff about the plans of the Russian army to introduce new 10 brigades to Ukraine by the end of May. For these purposes, heavy equipment is also accumulated, and assault groups with new weapons are also being prepared.

And another Russian channel reported that some major new training has been launched about a month ago, which is likely the eastern Siberian echelons being prepared about which I reported last time. This could be the 10 new brigades referenced above.

In fact, BILD has now reported on the large scale fortifications Ukraine is building in the Kharkov region in anticipation:

The first line of new fortifications of the Armed Forces of Ukraine near Kharkov runs 10 km from the Russian border, said BILD deputy editor-in-chief Paul Ronzheimer, who visited the construction.

“It is expected that the Russian Armed Forces may go on the offensive there in the coming weeks or months. The first line of trenches runs just 10 km from the state border. Construction workers are working with shovels, without special equipment. They said that they are under constant Russian fire, including glide bombs", the material says.

At the same time, Carlo Masala, a professor at the Bundeswehr University in Munich, said in a comment to BILD that “a possible offensive will initially go through Kramatorsk.”

“If so, then the path of Russian troops to Kharkov would be open. But even if there is no new ground offensive, Putin’s goal may be to shell Kharkov in preparation for the assault. Make a new Mariupol out of it and force people to flee,” said Masala.

At the end they mention forcing citizens to flee Kharkov, which is another common theme shared amongst several recent tabloids:





So, as you can see, Kharkov is really becoming more and more of a focused worry for them. That being said, I still don’t see particularly big signs that Russia will go there directly any time soon, but we’re merely keeping track of the movements and sentiments. It makes far more sense that for now, any potential phantom Russian brigades purported to be in the pipeline will be sent to one of the current breakthrough areas in the Donetsk or Bakhmut directions. There Russian forces have been making huge headway in a variety of settlements, from Novomikhailovka, to Pervomaisk, Krasnogorovka, etc. In the Bakhmut direction it’s Chasov Yar, as well as continued advances in the Avdeevka direction. So this whole connected front makes more sense for where new forces might be injected to develop breakthroughs and keep pushing in order to not give the retreating AFU here any chance to dig in, which will keep the momentum going like an avalanche.

(I do not believe that Kharkov would be assaulted, too expensive.)

(Much more at link.)

https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/sit ... r-ukraines

******

Ukraine Strikes Hospital in Donbass, Injuring Eight – Authorities
APRIL 19, 2024


A damaged healthcare facility is seen in the town of Gorlovka in the wake of a Ukrainian strike on April 18, 2024. Photo: Telegram/Prikhodko1970.

Kiev’s forces “deliberately” targeted a blood donation center in the town of Gorlovka, regional head Denis Pushilin has said

Ukrainian forces have struck a hospital and blood donation center in the Donbass town of Gorlovka, the head of Russia’s Donetsk People’s Republic, Denis Pushilin, has said. Eight civilians including a child were injured in the attack.

The victims sustained non-life-threatening injuries in the strike, Pushilin wrote on Telegram on Thursday. The the town center where healthcare facilities are located was “deliberately” targeted, he claimed. Both the hospital and the donation center were damaged in the strike.

Gorlovka Mayor Ivan Prikhodko published photos and videos from the scene showing damaged buildings, smashed windows and debris. One clip also showed destroyed furniture in a room at the healthcare facility.

Kiev’s troops used the US-supplied High Mobility Artillery Rocket System (HIMARS) in the attack, according to preliminary data gathered by the Russian authorities.

Washington has sent dozens of the multiple rocket launchers to Ukraine since mid-2022. The systems provided to Kiev have a range of up to 160km (100 miles) when equipped with longer-range ATACMS missiles. Other projectiles launched by HIMARS and available to the Ukrainian military have a range of around 70km.

According to Pushilin, Kiev’s forces carried out a total of 12 attacks on Thursday – both missile and drone strikes – targeting Gorlovka as well as Donetsk and other Donbass settlements. Cluster munitions were used in some of these attacks, the official said.

Last week, Ukrainian forces conducted a missile strike targeting a machinery plant in the city of Lugansk. Nine people were injured, including seven workers and two local residents, local leader Leonid Pasechnik said at that time. UK-supplied long-range Storm Shadow missiles were used in that assault, according to Russian law enforcement.

https://orinocotribune.com/ukraine-stri ... thorities/

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The US’ Long-Delayed Aid To Ukraine Might Prevent Its Collapse But Won’t Push Russia Back



ANDREW KORYBKO
APR 21, 2024

At the absolute most, this aid package might prevent Ukraine’s collapse by keeping the state running and possibly slowing down Russia’s already glacial advance, thus potentially averting the worst-case scenario that the Ukrainian Intelligence Committee warned about in late February.

A lot of hype accompanied the House’ scandalous passage of a long-delayed $60 billion aid package to Ukraine after the Republican Speaker cut a deal with the Democrats to make it happen. Supporters claim that it’ll help Kiev reverse the disastrous military-strategic dynamics that set in since the failure of last summer’s counteroffensive. They expect that Ukraine will either stop Russia’s gradual advance or maybe even launch the second counteroffensive that Zelensky recently spoke about.

Those are unrealistically high hopes, however, since it turns out that only around $14 billion or a little less than one-quarter of the total aid package will go towards buying new American arms for Ukraine. The Guardian reported on this politically inconvenient fact as did other outlets, which noted that $23 billion will go towards replenishing the US’ own depleted stockpiles. Meanwhile, $11 billion will fund current US operations in the region while $8 billion will help the Ukrainian government stay afloat.

At the absolute most, this aid package might prevent Ukraine’s collapse by keeping the state running and possibly slowing down Russia’s already glacial advance, thus potentially averting the worst-case scenario that the Ukrainian Intelligence Committee warned about in late February. They raised awareness back then of the very real possibility that a Russian military breakthrough by sometime this summer might coincide with large-scale nationwide protests that topple the government.

The promised aid is insufficient for giving Ukraine the military-strategic advantage over Russia so the first part of their worst-case scenario is still in the cards, but the second might become less likely than before since the chances of dissident officials joining any nationwide protest movement is reduced. So long as they continue getting paid, they don’t have a pressing financial incentive to turn against the state, thus slashing the chances that a nationwide protest movement could topple the government.

In the event that Russia does indeed achieve a military breakthrough sometime in the coming months, then no emergency deal between the “Republicans In Name Only” (RINOs) and the Democrats modeled off of Saturday’s would make a difference. The only recourse would be capitulating to Russia’s demands or authorizing a conventional NATO intervention, neither of which the US prefers but it would be forced to choose between the “lesser of two evils” from the perspective of its perceived interests.

The ruling Democrats can’t afford the optics of “losing Ukraine” after all they’ve invested into it, but they also can’t afford on-the-fence voters being spooked by a conventional NATO intervention into casting their ballots for Trump or a third party as a form of protest and thus tank Biden’s re-election. All that can be known for sure is that the latest aid package does nothing to decrease the odds of this dilemma, nor would any forthcoming ones, but it will indeed lead to more Ukrainians dying with nothing to show for it.

https://korybko.substack.com/p/the-us-l ... to-ukraine

[blindpig]

For their geopolitical interests
POSTED BY @NSANZO ⋅ 22/04/2024



“If Ukraine falls, it will be a catastrophic turning point in history and an absolute humiliation for the West… Why on earth are we waiting to give this heroic nation the weapons it needs?” Boris Johnson, the former prime minister, recently declared. British whose arrival in kyiv at a time when Russia and Ukraine were still negotiating the possibility of peace gave Zelensky the signal he needed to definitively opt for war. Johnson's comment shows, more clearly than other political representatives, that the war in Ukraine is considered a determining element in the maintenance of the international status quo of Western hegemony. The argument is also in line with the catastrophic feeling that has spread through the press in recent weeks in an exercise in dramatizing a complicated military situation, but in no way critical for Ukraine, whose only objective was to pressure in search of an increase in military assistance funds to kyiv.

Since the funds from the main supplier country, the United States, ran out, Ukraine has lost Avdeevka after a war of attrition in which the imbalance of forces typical of this war weighed, although it has managed to avoid a rapid advance by Russia on all fronts. . Moscow has taken advantage of the shortage of anti-aircraft ammunition to achieve greater success in its rear attacks, but the ground front has not moved excessively. The advances from Avdeevka to the west, limited although somewhat faster than in previous battles of this war since it entered the trenches, cannot hide that Russia has not managed to keep Ukrainian troops away from areas as important as Gorlovka, the south of Donetsk, Kremennaya or Lisichansk, still in dangerous territory almost two years after their capture.

As expected, the change in discourse after the approval of the new US funds has been immediate. “The United States has finally fully invested its aid toward Ukraine, and consequently its reputation as a global leader…. And he also pointed out that the Russian Federation has no chance of rewriting the global rules, nor of getting away with impunity from the war started by them…. "Now it is crucial to bring the war to a just end..." wrote an enthusiastic Mijailo Podoliak just a few minutes after the confirmation of the favorable vote of the United States Congress. In its simplified vision of war, the superiority of Western weapons is such that it is the only thing necessary for Ukraine, which in this way will achieve what it considers the inevitable end: the complete defeat of Russia, payment of war compensations, surrender of accounts in a court similar to that in Nuremberg and even regime change in the Russian Federation. Despite the large doses of magical thinking in the speech of the advisor to the President's Office, his narrative perfectly describes the intentions of the Ukrainian Government, willing to continue demanding more weapons from its partners until it achieves its objectives. The promise of new weapons means that Ukraine will quickly return to its maximalist political demands and perhaps even its usual high standards. It is unlikely that what is currently promised will be considered sufficient by kyiv, always ready to ask for more from its allies.

The dynamic is similar in the press. Although some analysts remember the failure of the 2023 counteroffensive, largely financed by an enormous mobilization of resources, the return of optimism has exploded. Yesterday the first articles showing the change in discourse began to be published. “With the restoration of American support and continued help from Europe, Ukraine may be able to turn the tide,” wrote a Brookings Foreign Policy think-tanker in an article published less than twelve hours after, by a large majority, with With the vote of the entire Democratic representation and 110 Republican votes, Congress gave the green light to the military assistance package. As already anticipated, the legislation includes a large percentage (around a third of the total) for the replenishment of US arsenals, so the $60.8 billion approved on Saturday will not be entirely allocated to Ukraine but to its own expenses.

The resumption of US financing joins increased assistance from European countries, which have responded to Biden's call to increase their involvement in military supplies to Ukraine. The figures and statements indicate Euro-Atlantic unity and show its commitment to military means as the only acceptable one, something that, in a way, also began with Boris Johnson in the spring of 2022, when the negotiated solution was still possible for kyiv and Moscow.

The “we are going to fight” that the then British premier supposedly uttered before the Ukrainian president should not be understood as a way of forcing Ukraine to renounce diplomatic channels, but as a promise that Kiev would have the necessary means for war. until the end. At that time, kyiv and Moscow were still negotiating in the shadows an agreement whose terms did not please Ukraine, which would have to give up part of its territory (Crimea, Donetsk, Lugansk) and access to NATO. The terms were also not at all of interest to some Western powers, the United States and the United Kingdom at the forefront, which had to commit to offering Ukraine security guarantees similar to those provided for by Article V of NATO that they were not willing to offer. The West did not force Ukraine to continue the war, but actively demonstrated its lack of interest in a negotiated peace and pledged to act as a supplier to achieve Ukraine's and its own objectives militarily.

“I welcome the overwhelming positive vote from the US House of Representatives. “Ukraine deserves all possible support against Russia,” wrote Úrsula von der Leyen, who also added the message that the entire European representation is repeating en bloc. “Transatlantic allies are united in support of freedom and democracy.” "We are together. For freedom, against aggression,” wrote the president of the European Parliament Roberta Metsola. The show of support that both von der Leyen and Metsola made in October to show their solidarity with Israel, which was already preparing the war that has killed more than 34,000 Palestinians in Gaza, suggests that it cannot be a problem that the package of military spending will not only include Ukraine but also Taiwan and Israel. The arguments of freedom and the fight against the occupier cannot, it seems, be applied to the Palestinian territories, under Israeli occupation since 1967. The fight for democracy implies, in Ukraine, unconditionally supporting a president who refused to implement the agreement peace agreement signed when understanding that it implied the granting of excessive rights, while in Israel it means defending a State that for decades has trampled international legislation, perpetuating the occupation.

The package of measures, which will provide Kiev and Tel Aviv with the weapons they need to continue fighting their respective wars, in the Israeli case against a besieged region and not against an army but against a militia and against the population in general, will, According to Lloyd Austin, head of the Pentagon, “it will make the United States safer and save lives.” The United States repeats the argument of saving lives, but much more important is the first part of the statement, not in terms of guaranteeing the country's security against potential enemies, but in terms of protecting Washington's position globally. The more than 90 billion dollars of military spending, which is added to the US military budget, by far the highest on the planet, seeks to maintain the current situation of three allies in strategically important areas: Ukraine in Europe, Israel in the Middle East and Taiwan in Asia-Pacific. It is no coincidence that these are especially important areas for maintaining the preeminent position of the United States worldwide. Through the war in Ukraine, Washington seeks to maintain control of the European continent and undermine an important ally of the only real opponent it currently has, the People's Republic of China, also under pressure with Western support for Taiwan.

This vision of increasing military spending as a way to preserve its international position is common to both American parties. “I think Xi, Putin and Iran are the true axis of evil. I think they are coordinating their actions. I'm willing to take personal risks for this because we have to do the right thing. And history will judge us,” said House Speaker Mike Johnson, who has accelerated the final phase of the negotiation to ensure that US allies can maintain their position and, in this way, continue to be useful to Washington. . His position has earned him criticism from radicals like Marjorie Taylor Green, but also great headlines. “As we deliberate on this vote, you have to ask yourself: am I a Chamberlain or a Churchill?” Mike McCaul, chairman of the Foreign Affairs Committee, said to ask for support for the measures. Continuing with the simile and applying it to Mike Johnson, CNN wrote that “by approving assistance to Ukraine, the accidental president [of Congress] became an unlikely Churchill.”

“We will have a chance of victory,” Volodymyr Zelensky stated in his first interview since the approval of the financing. Ukraine will have more weapons with which to try to balance a battlefield that in recent months has shifted towards Russia. It seems no coincidence that the Ukrainian president finally signed the unpopular law on mobilization just a few days before the resumption of American funds was confirmed. kyiv had done its part by showing its suppliers that it will continue to recruit enough of the population to sustain the war. Washington has responded with funding to make continuing the war possible. As two years ago, the only will of the United States and its allies is to maintain the war, in part for their geopolitical interests.

https://slavyangrad.es/2024/04/22/29595/

Google Translator

*******

From Cassad's Telegram account:

Colonelcassad
And also on the aid package from the United States. What happened there in transatlantic circles will be examined by historians, but now it looks like this:

Before the failure of the counter-offensive, the policy of military supplies was determined by the United States. No one climbed into the heat across the dad, and even in order to get Scholz to buy tanks, Biden had to pretend that he would also supply tanks to Kyiv.

Last fall, after the failure of the counteroffensive, Washington tried to let go of the reins. Not to leave the game completely, but to shift the main burden, and most importantly, the responsibility for the war with Russia, onto Europe. This doesn’t mean that Biden sabotaged the Ukraine aid bill—he just didn’t go out of his way to push it through. If in Europe they were able to pick up the banner falling from old hands, then great, the United States would have successfully abandoned the ship, which would have sank a little later, and no one would have been able to blame Biden for this.

Europe performed at its best. Instead of the normal rhythmic supply of weapons to Ukraine, there are some kind of hysterics and throwing. Oh, right now we’ll land in Odessa - oh no, it’s important for us to talk with Russia. Ahh, look, Putin, we also have a nuclear bomb - oh no, we can’t escalate. Meanwhile, the residual trickle of military supplies became increasingly thinner, and the level of European strategic and political maturity turned out to be such that the collapse of the Ukrainian front and a nuclear war could happen with equal probability - and it is possible that at the same time.

In short, Europe failed to cope with the high mission entrusted to it, and Bata had to go back and restore order, first in Washington, and then between the USA and Europe. The law on the confiscation of American assets to Russia, which has no practical meaning, can be interpreted as a signal to Europe: if you want us to continue participating in this farce, find a way to take away two hundred of Putin’s billions. The move, by the way, is more in the style of Trump than Biden.

At the same time, the fundamental factors why dad decided to leave have not gone away. New ideas on how to defeat Russia have not yet emerged, and there are doubts that they will appear in the pre-election year. The fact that the series has been renewed for the next season does not mean sudden plot twists.

Well, this summer we will find out what dad and his participation are really worth.

***

Colonelcassad
Summary of the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation on the progress of the special military operation (as of April 21, 2024) Main thing:

Units of the West group of forces occupied more advantageous positions and defeated the manpower and equipment of the 14th Mechanized, 68th Jaeger, The 57th motorized infantry brigade of the Ukrainian Armed Forces and the 110th brigade.
The enemy lost up to 50 military personnel, an infantry fighting vehicle and two vehicles.

Units of the “Southern” group of forces completely liberated the village of Bogdanovka, Donetsk People’s Republic.
Enemy losses amounted to up to 440 military personnel.

Units of the “Center” group of forces repelled eight counterattacks of assault groups in one day . The Ukrainian Armed Forces lost up to 360 military personnel, an armored combat vehicle, eight vehicles, a US-made 155-mm M777 howitzer, as well as a fuel depot for military equipment.

Units of the Vostok group of troops occupied more advantageous positions. The losses of the Ukrainian Armed Forces amounted to up to 100 military personnel, two armored combat vehicles, five cars, a 155-mm FH-70 howitzer made in Great Britain, a 122-mm D-30 howitzer and two Nota electronic warfare stations.

Units of the Dnepr group of troops inflicted fire on accumulations of manpower and equipment of the 23rd brigade of the National Guard. The enemy lost up to 50 troops, four vehicles, as well as a US-made M107 175-mm self-propelled artillery mount.

During the course of 24 hours, operational-tactical aviation, missile forces and artillery of groupings of troops of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation destroyed: a MiG-29 aircraft of the Ukrainian Air Force at the Dnepr airfield, as well as a control center, an air target detection radar and a launcher for the S-300PS anti-aircraft missile system.

In addition, the following were affected: a workshop for the production of unmanned aerial vehicles, an all-round radar station with a phased antenna array "Pelican", as well as manpower and military equipment of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in 104 districts.

During the day, air defense systems shot down 194 Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicles and eight rockets from the HIMARS and Uragan multiple launch rocket systems.

In total, since the beginning of the special military operation, the following have been destroyed: 592 aircraft, 270 helicopters, 22,289 unmanned aerial vehicles, 508 anti-aircraft missile systems, 15,816 tanks and other armored combat vehicles, 1,269 combat vehicles of multiple launch rocket systems, 9,008 field artillery guns and mortars, as well as 21,205 units of special military vehicles.

https://t.me/s/boris_rozhin

Google Translator

******

Ukraine Weekly Update
19th April 2024

DR. ROB CAMPBELL
APR 19, 2024

<snip>

This week, the hypocrisy of Western leaders and journalists has climbed to new and dizzy heights. Our very own morally bankrupt idiot, David Cameron, attempted to argue in a TV interview that the Iranian strike was much worse than Israel’s illegal attack on the Iranian embassy in Damascus because many more drones and missiles were employed than the Israelis did in Syria. But this is complete nonsense since the Israeli attack killed many people, whereas the Iranian attack, which Iran warned the Israelis and the Americans about in advance, killed no one. Moreover, the Israeli attack was launched without warning and was in breech of international law. Iran’s retaliation, on the other hand, was allowed under international law. Another example of this hypocrisy is the attitude of Macron towards Israeli participation in the Olympic games. How is it acceptable for Israel to compete when the International Court of Justice has accused it of genocide and yet the Russians, who face no such accusations, cannot compete as Russians and must conform to conditions of neutrality. I wish I’d been interviewing him!

As well as the hypocrisy, the West has also provided plenty of evidence that it simply doesn’t know what to do. The photograph of the Biden Administration (above) demonstrates this in my view. These people, apparently frustrated by events initiated by Israel, look as if they are out of ideas - at least that’s how I read it.

Syrsky - Looking Tired


Or is he drunk? If I were in his place, I’d be getting drunk.

Mobilization Woes

The new mobilisation law could cause a conflict between the Ukrainian regime and its people, according to some. Soldiers who have been on the front line awaiting rotation will be angered by the fact that they will now have to serve until the end of the conflict. All men between 18 and 60 will be required to register for military service whether they are living inside or outside Ukraine. Soldiers are saying that they are being ‘fooled and used’ as cannon fodder - according to RT.

Some members of government and the police forces will be exempt from service thereby dividing the people from the administration and providing the basis for a conflict between both sides. Veteran soldier, Ihor Mosiychuck, said that there is huge dissatisfaction among his older comrades: that the denial of their right to demobilisation has killed morale. They will not be too pleased with General Syrsky, who, it is reported, lobbied for the right to demobilization to be withheld. It is feared that this new mobilisation could cause panic among the population. One soldier had this to say (warning - language could be offensive to some):

there will be no demobilization. Not even after 36 months. This was the first clause that they removed in the new law. Well, what I want to tell you, Verkhovna Rada, with the rest of these fucking faggots. You have signed your own death warrant with this. Sooner or later, this will end, and you will all be found. You will answer for this. You, your children who ran the fuck away abroad... And thousands of servicemen are determined this way. So, boys, think about it. Or rather, no need to think anymore. Just run

In spite of the incendiary language and sentiments, there is no suggestion that this man or his colleagues will refuse to fight - but their hearts will not be in it.

I do not engage in speculating very much but I would not be at all surprised if demobilization is reintroduced in order to stave off mutiny. But that will reduce the numbers available for cannon fodder. We shall see.

Zelensky signed the new mobilisation bill into law on the 16th April. He has blamed the West’s failure to provide ammunition for Russia’s advances on the battlefields, according to RT. But manpower shortages including the mass avoidance of mobilisation are also causing problems.

Some Ukrainian sources are reporting that Zelensky was pushed into signing the mobilisation bill so that sufficient forces could be accumulated for an offensive at the end of summer. This would, hopefully, take territory back from the Russians and boost Sleepy Joe’s election hopes. According to resident, the US congress insisted that the demobilisation section of the bill be removed so that more troops would be available for this offensive which would be heavy in infantry and would take enormous casualties - according to legitimniy.

Of course, this plan for a late summer offensive is premised on a) Ukraine’s ability to catch sufficient numbers of eligible males and females b) the assumption that Ukraine’s army is still in the field come the end of summer c) The availability of weapons and ammunition. I can’t see the offensive happening and for the sake of the Ukrainians, I hope it doesn’t.

<snip>

We Don’t Wanna Fight
A recent survey of Ukrainian men aged 25-59 indicated that only 20% would consider joining the army while 24% said that nothing could motivate them to join.

Russian v Ukrainian Language



In spite of this, Z has announced that the Russian language will cease to be broadcast in three months - according to RT.

<snip>

Ukrainian Terrorist Attacks (those that target civilians)
12th/13th April


On the 12th April, Vasily Prozorov, former SBU officer who defected to Russia many years ago was injured by an explosive device planted in his car outside his home in Moscow.. The Ukrainian SBU are suspected. Prozorov (above) has taken to social media to tell everyone that he is well.

Also on the 12th, the Ukrainians attacked Tokmak (Zaporizhye) with cluster munitions killing six (including a child) and injuring 20 others. Later reports indicate that ten were killed in this attack with another two missing. Bryansk and Belgorod were attacked by 12 ‘aircraft type’ drones one of which crashed into an administrative building injuring two civilians. Ten members of the DPR’s emergency services were injured by drones while attending a fire at a residential building in Gorlovka.

13th/14th April Overnight

Ten ‘aircraft type’ drones were shot down over Krasnador (west of Kerch) overnight while another five were shot down over the Black Sea near Crimea. Earlier, several drones were shot down over Kursk.

14th/15th April Overnight

155 mm shells injured seven people in the DPR on the 14th April.

15th/16th April Overnight

Lugansk was attacked overnight, seriously injuring seven individuals at a machinery plant. In Tokmak (Zaporizhye) MLRS projectiles killed 16 people, including 4 children, while another 20 received injuries. 45 projectiles were lobbed into the DPR overnight and a drone strike killed a man in Horlivka.

16th/17th April Overnight

Belgorod and Kursk were shelled overnight but only one casualty was reported. 41 projectiles were lobbed into the DPR causing no casualties.

17th/18th April

Belgorod came under attack again overnight. 14 out of 22 projectiles were destroyed but some got through to damage a residential apartment building and injure a woman in the foot.

18th/19th April

25 projectiles were shot down over Belgorod region around midnight on the 18th April but drones and missiles caused damage to residential buildings. 133 rounds of ammunition were fired into the DPR wounding 11 civilians.

<snip>

The Ground War



This week, the tempo of Russian advances has increased but ground is gained, typically, no more than two kilometres at a time. But there are signs that the quality of Ukrainian troops is declining sharply and their appetite for fighting is declining even more. For example, the 65th, 25th and 115th brigades have all been guilty of abandoning their positions, according to Yury Podolyaka. But the increased Russian pressure has also contributed to these retreats.

<snip>

The Fronts


The BMP-3 (Terminator)

Chasiv Yar



Fierce fighting continues in Chasiv Yar, especially around the eastern suburbs but there has been little change in the line of contact - according to the Two Majors. The Ukrainians are bringing reserves into the area after the 65th brigade fled the battlefield in this direction enabling the Russians to make significant advances.

Avdeevka



According to the Two Majors:

In the SouthDonetsk direction (southwest of Avdeyevka}, the RFAF are advancing in the south of Krasnogorovka, our artillery and aviation are working closely. Our troops are already operating north of the railway tracks.

Ocheretyne (North West of Avdeyevka)



On the 18th April, according to the Two Majors:

Northwest of Avdeyevka, the Russian Army is trying to cover Novokalinovo. The significant advance of our troops at Ocheretino was the reason for discussions in the Ukrainian segment of social networks.

On the same day, Slavyangrad reported that:

The enemy is urgently moving reinforcements from the 30th and 59th mechanized brigades in an attempt to prevent the Russian Armed Forces from breaking through to the central part of Ocheretino, which is located on an elevated position relative to Novokalinovo and Novobakhmutovka - from here it is possible to control the surrounding area.

Yury Podolyaka has this to say about the situation at Ocheretino:

Ocheretino is a very important strategic location. It is slightly less important than Chasov Yar, but it is still extremely important for the Central Donetsk sector. Once Ukraine loses Ocheretino, it will lose the last convenient defense line to the north and west of Donetsk, and it will have to retreat further. Moreover, the flanks and rear of Ukraine's Toretsk grouping will be exposed, while the Russian army is also approaching this grouping from Chasov Yar in the north.

Kherson



On April 19th, according to the Two Majors:

In the Kherson direction, the AFU maintains a presence on our shore in Krynki and at the Antonovsky Bridge. The day before yesterday, the AFU replenished their manpower with a small landing force. There are mutual attacks, enemy drones still pose a serious threat. In addition, the AFU regularly fire at civilians. Yesterday, as a result of an enemy strike on Alyoshki, a civilian received shrapnel wounds.

Berdychi



Fighting continues around Berdychi and Semyonovka with no significant changes, according to Slavyangrad.

Zaporizhye



On April 19th the Two Majors reported that:

On the Zaporozhye front, there are battles in Rabotino, they report the advance of our troops northwest of Verbovoye. The enemy has a lot of drones with night cameras. Baba Yaga hexacopters and FPV have become one of the AFU main means of hitting in the direction. The use of Israeli cluster mortar mines M971 caliber 120 mm by the AFU is reported. In the afternoon, a Ukrainian drone was shot down over the ZNPP. Attacks on the nuclear facility have become permanent.

(More at link.)

https://robcampbell.substack.com/p/ukra ... update-438

******

Well, When You Are A Thief...

... you are a thief. Old habits die hard.


The House passed a foreign aid package on Saturday as well as what's called the REPO Act that will allow the Biden administration to confiscate billions of dollars’ worth of Russian assets sitting in U.S. banks and transfer them to Ukraine for reconstruction. “By delivering urgently needed aid to Ukraine, the United States has reasserted itself as the leader of the free world and as a reliable partner to its allies," said Rep. Ritchie Torres, D-N.Y. "The US has a singular obligation to help freedom fighters fight for their freedom, and nowhere more so than in Ukraine, whose self-defense against Putin’s aggression must prevail." The REPO Act, which would authorize Biden to confiscate the frozen Russian assets in U.S. banks and transfer them to a special fund for Ukraine, is part of the foreign aid package that was stalled for months in the House. More than $6 billion of the $300 billion in frozen Russian assets are sitting in U.S. banks. Most of the $300 billion are in Germany, France and Belgium.

It was expected eventually, so, I am not surprised. Now, let's see what is coming next. One thing for sure, however, Moscow knew it will happen, so, the dedollarization will accelerate greatly now. Europe will give up those funds and that will be it for Europe. US will follow after that.

Posted by smoothiex12 at 11:59 AM 108 Comments

http://smoothiex12.blogspot.com/2024/04 ... thief.html

It Is Not Really The News...

... but still, it is worth reminding...

СИМФЕРОПОЛЬ, 20 апр – РИА Новости. Депутат Госдумы от крымского региона, генерал-майор запаса Леонид Ивлев заявил, что удары украинских войск по территории России планируются в НАТО под руководством США. Ранее генсек НАТО Йенс Столтенберг заявил, что Украина имеет право наносить удары по военным целям на территории России, назвав такие удары легитимными. ... по его словам, именно натовские генералы в Монсе под Брюсселем проводят командно-штабные игры в интересах ВСУ на картах российских регионов - Крыма, ДНР, ЛНР, Белгородской и Брянской и других областей и выдают потом рекомендации главкому ВСУ Александру Сырскому. "Именно на авиабазе Рамштайн натовские инструкторы обучают летчиков "повитряных" (воздушных – ред.) сил и специалистов ПВО Украины, а на танковых полигонах НАТО солдаты ВСУ обкатывают Abrams и Leopard", - сказал депутат.

Translate: SIMFEROPOL, April 20 – RIA Novosti. State Duma deputy from the Crimean region, reserve major general Leonid Ivlev said that attacks by Ukrainian troops on Russian territory are planned by NATO under the leadership of the United States. Earlier, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said that Ukraine has the right to strike military targets on Russian territory, calling such strikes legitimate. ... according to him, it is NATO generals in Mons near Brussels who conduct command and staff games in the interests of the Armed Forces of Ukraine on maps of Russian regions - Crimea, DPR, LPR, Belgorod and Bryansk and other regions and then issue recommendations to the commander-in-chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Alexander Syrsky. “It is at the Ramstein airbase that NATO instructors train air force pilots and air defense specialists of Ukraine, and at NATO tank training grounds, Ukrainian Armed Forces soldiers test Abrams and Leopards,” the deputy said.

Ivlev says nothing new, including the locations where this planning--in NATO planning comes down to designation of the target(s) in some third world locality and bomb it with impunity--is taking place, which is NATO generals hiding behind the backs of hapless VSU cannon fodder. In reality, of course, real operational planning of such level is beyond the capabilities of Pentagon and its uniformed lapdogs from Europe. Remarkably, they also cannot learn anything due to a growing technological gap between Russian Armed Forces and the best NATO can offer. No matter how skillful one could be tactically, but overcoming technological lag in 21st century is nothing like doing the same in the middle of the 20th one. And then, of course, there are operations and strategy.

(more...)

http://smoothiex12.blogspot.com/2024/04 ... -news.html

******

Zelensky signs decree to restrict online gambling

by Kateryna Denisova
April 20, 2024 11:42 AM


Illustrative photo of President Volodymyr Zelensky signing a document in his office in Kyiv. (Volodymyr Zelensky / Telegram)

President Volodymyr Zelensky signed on April 20 a decree on counteracting the negative effects of online gambling, which proposes to ban it for the military until the end of martial law.

Zelensky supported the National Security and Defense Council's decision after he had announced that the government was preparing to tighten control over the online gambling industry in Ukraine.

The negative social impacts of gambling are increasingly becoming a topic of public discussion, after a petition demanding restrictions on online gambling passed the threshold for presidential consideration.

Zelensky tasked the government to define restrictions on all forms of gambling advertising, focusing on the ads using the symbols of Ukraine's Armed Forces and other military formations.

The list also includes a large-scale information campaign on the danger of gambling, the introduction of an online monitoring system and the blocking of illegal gambling websites.

Ukraine's Security Service will examine gambling organizers for compliance with the legislation within two months, according to the decree.

The Commander-in-Chief and the leadership of military units are tasked to prohibit military personnel from accessing gambling facilities and online casinos.

In early April, the Parliamentary Finance Committee supported a bill that included the liquidation of the Commission for Regulation of Gambling and Lotteries and passing its responsibilities to the Digital Transformation Ministry.

Gambling was officially banned in Ukraine in 2009 until its legalization in 2020.

In the first two months of 2024, the gambling business in Ukraine paid Hr 2.2 billion ($56 million) in taxes, and Hr 10.4 billion ($267 million) in 2023, according to Danylo Hetmantsev, the chairman of the parliamentary Finance Committee.

https://kyivindependent.com/zelensky-si ... -gambling/

******

About ATACMS And "Leakers"...

... to those who still think that ATACMS decide anything. I totally get where Scott comes from in his apprehension about Crimean Bridge safety but let's step back and think for a minute purely tactically, considering the fact that.

1. ATACMS have been in use in SMO for a while now. Here is one example of many, this is from October 25, 2023.


"В течение прошедших суток перехвачены две оперативно-тактические ракеты ATACМS производства США", - говорится в публикации. Кроме того, за сутки были перехвачены зенитная ракета С-200, две противорадиолокационные ракеты HARM и два реактивных снаряда системы залпового огня HIMARS производства США. Ранее военное ведомство не сообщало о перехвате ракет ATACMS, которые TВСУ получили от Пентагона.

Translation: “Over the past 24 hours, two US-made ATACMS operational-tactical missiles were intercepted,” the publication says. In addition, during the day, an S-200 anti-aircraft missile, two HARM anti-radar missiles and two US-made HIMARS multiple launch rocket systems were intercepted. Previously, the military department did not report the interception of ATACMS missiles that the Ukrainian Armed Forces received from the Pentagon.

So, as you can see, those, including its longest range (300 km) version, are being successfully intercepted by Russian AD and militarily make no difference whatsoever on the theater of operations, EVEN if they are able to achieve one or two "leakers".

2. "Leaker" is, of course, the missile or projectile which gets through. Considering well articulated overall effectiveness of Russian Air Defense of around 95%, as stated by no other than Mr. Putin himself (In Russian), which is very close to reality because all data points towards this astonishing effectiveness, we can easily assume that in order to get even two "leakers" (most likely through combined heterogeneous salvo--Scalps/Stormshadows, ATACMS, maybe even USVs et al), in air they will need:

2/5 = n/100

n=40 missiles.

They will need 40 missile salvo to get two leakers to the Crimean Bridge. Let's turn our civil engineering and operational minds on.

3. Crimean Bridge is not just the bridge--it is THE longest bridge in Europe (19 kilometers), it is also the classic Linear Target which is IMPOSSIBLE to completely destroy other than maybe one or two flights of it. The juiciest of those being its main flight with the length of 235 meters.



If you get to this flight by couple of ATACMS, theoretically you can destroy it and that will require a much longer time to restore unlike it would be the case with other flights which are shorter and easier to restore. So, Scott is correct when worrying about those ATACMS, it is possible to damage the bridge but...
4. Here comes this issue: can 404, having real time ISR from the US, actually collect 40 missile salvo? Here is a rough range of ATACMS and where it can be theoretically pre-deployed for a theoretical salvo:



This yellow segment is under control of AFU, for now. So, the possible area for salvo is shrinking. So, the most likely target will be, yet again, Sevastopol. It doesn't mean that Pentagon wouldn't stop thinking about sabotaging any other objects on Russian territory or trying to kill more Russian civilians--this they know how to do--but this is how their thinking goes. You see, Russia is not Iraq and they don't teach real war at USMA at West Point or in Leavenworth, KS. They never faced one.
So, are "leakers" possible? Absolutely. Will they change anything? Nope. The outcome is clear and now Khohol recognized that they will actually get something around $8 billion in... loans, not those $61 billion which go to Pentagon for replenishing stocks, filling pockets of lobbyists from MIC and continuing to finance propaganda about "the finest fighting force in history". They only know how to fight PR wars. Keep this in mind, including the fact that the Bridge is well defended.

http://smoothiex12.blogspot.com/2024/04 ... akers.html

[blindpig]

Invitation to a continental war
POSTED BY @NSANZO ⋅ 04/23/2024



“The United States is considering sending more military advisers to the embassy in Kiev, the latest sign of American commitment to Ukraine at a time when Russia appears to be gaining momentum in the two-year conflict,” he wrote last Saturday. Politico¸ one of the many media outlets that echoed the news. The article, strictly adhering to the official discourse and quoting Major General Pat Ryder, Pentagon spokesman, adds that these troops "would not perform combat functions, but would advise and support the Government and the Ukrainian army." The proposal, which does not provide anything new other than the possibility of increasing military personnel whose presence in Ukraine was already known, coincides with the approval of the resumption of US financing for the war, a way of confirming the long-term involvement of United States in a conflict in which the Ukrainian military acts as a proxy force against the common Russian enemy. This is also how the reference to advisory work, or perhaps even direction, mentioned from the Pentagon must be understood. The situation for increased US involvement in Ukrainian planning is propitious, as the political decisions of recent days not only assume that the Ukrainian Armed Forces will have sufficient weapons and ammunition to continue fighting, but will also have a greater number of troops. Once the decisions on supply and mobilization have been ratified, Ukraine now needs plans, something in which the United States has always been very present.

Faced with the resounding rejection of classifying war as a proxy, an idea considered Russian propaganda in the first months of 2022, reality has imposed itself and Ukraine has adopted it as part of its discourse and now presents itself as the army of the West, its external border. and protective barrier. “The US military does not have to fight now protecting NATO countries. The Ukrainians are doing it. And it is just ammunition that the civilized world is providing, and I think it is a good decision,” Zelensky stated in his latest interview on American television NBC , without any attempt to hide the proxy war nature of the current conflict against Russia. The United States and its allies provide the weapons, ammunition, intelligence, financing and some of the planning, while Ukraine provides the soldiers and the territory to conquer or destroy.

The approval of US financing represents a guarantee of North American involvement in the short and medium term, while the assistance from the European Union, planned for the next five years, adds a long-term commitment. However, the next barrier, that of direct participation, has not yet been crossed. Western countries have financed, armed and instructed Ukrainian units both in Ukraine in the past and abroad currently. The Western military presence on the ground, although existing, is limited and generally remains hidden. It had to be Emmanuel Macron's comment, who wanted to put on the table the possibility of sending troops to Ukraine - not necessarily in combat work, but without ruling it out either - that made Olaf Scholz respond by revealing the presence of British troops and perhaps French in work related to the use of Western missiles. The possibility of sending troops to Ukraine is not a red line, but rather an unknown but possibly very limited number are already in the country.

Macron's proposal, which received the rejection of Germany and other EU countries, the ambiguity of the United Kingdom and the United States and the fanatical support of the Baltic countries, is also the starting point of one of the articles that begin to advocate for sending Western troops to Ukraine. Published in Foreign Policy and written by three Americans - one of them from the academic field and two from the military -, the article does not advocate sending troops from NATO, but, curiously, from European countries. The reasoning is simple, although fallacious: the presence of Alliance troops could trigger the activation of Article V of collective defense, but that of continental troops could not.

Incoherent in its justifications and even more so in its analysis, the article does not bother to explain why the presence of European units from NATO countries would not be a problem, but that of American troops would be. The reality is that, since 2014, Washington has remained at a distance, perfectly comfortable with a conflict first on Russia's borders and now with the direct involvement of Russia, a war that guarantees it arms sales contracts and further subordinates the position of its European allies. However, the United States has never shown any interest in risking a direct confrontation with Russian troops in Ukraine. The academics and military personnel who are beginning to lobby for more direct European involvement in the conflict seem to be of the same opinion.

“As Russian forces accelerate their advance, the possibility of them breaching Ukrainian defenses along the Eastern Front and challenging Ukrainian control of Kharkiv or even Kiev poses a threat to its security that Europe cannot ignore,” the authors argue. A Russian victory, they add, would “validate President Vladimir Putin's revisionist ambitions and his belief in the inherent weakness of the West” and “would allow the Kremlin to keep Russia on a war footing.” European comments on the possibility of sending troops manage, according to this view, to “hinder this worrying trajectory.” But “to really change the outcome in Ukraine, European countries have to do more than just talk about deployments” and proceed to send contingents to carry out all kinds of logistical tasks, equipment repair, advice, training and even deployment throughout the territory. west of the Dnieper, that is, on the current de facto border .

The article also proposes the European presence on the Ukrainian borders in both Belarus and Transnistria to avoid the opening of new fronts. The weakness of the Russian contingent in Transnistria, scarce and in tasks that are in no way combat, contrasts with the periodic exaggeration of a threat of invasion of Odessa that simply does not exist. Even so, the authors understand that the European presence in that sector "would reduce the possibilities of opening a new front along those borders, since it is practically a certainty that Russia would avoid expanding the war by attacking other European armies."

The presence of foreign troops in Ukraine would undoubtedly pose a dilemma for Russia, which has always insisted on showing that it does not seek a direct confrontation with NATO countries. However, the virtual certainty that Russia would not attack a European contingent in the Ukrainian war contrasts with the main reason why the article sees the need to send European troops to the war. “There is no reason to think that Putin will stop in Ukraine; he has already declared that all former Soviet republics should be returned to Russia. The Baltic countries could be next and Finland and Poland, which were principalities in the pre-Soviet Russian Empire, could follow.” Russia would not dare attack European troops on the border with Transnistria, but Western contingents must be sent to prevent Moscow from attacking NATO countries. One might wonder how, since the article takes as truth the propaganda argument that the Russian Federation has lost 90% of its pre-war army and alleges that “the deployment of troops to Ukraine has left Russia with barely enough forces to save the rest of its long border, even worse to prepare a significant operation against other European states.”

The threat against European countries is real and because of it continental countries have to mobilize, not only resources, but their own troops to confront a country that, apparently, has lost its army, can barely defend its borders and that in question nuclear is “barking dog, little biting”. It is essential to fight, but the opponent is not especially powerful. That seems to be the argument with which the authors try to invite European countries into the conflict. The incoherent attempt to convince the continental allies to become directly involved in the war while the United States watches in the shadows is blatant throughout the entire article but is only made explicit in its final part. “Given that European forces would act outside the framework and territory of NATO, any casualty would not trigger a response under Article 5 and would draw in the United States,” they say, making their objective clear. The war must continue and Ukraine must be directly supported by Western armies. As long as it's not the American one.

Macron's comments and the harshness of the war, with Ukraine on the defensive against a stronger Russian army, make the appearance of this type of initiative practically inevitable, which encourages European countries to wage a continental war, while the United States reap the benefits.

https://slavyangrad.es/2024/04/23/invit ... ntinental/

Google Translator

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From Cassad's telegram account:

Colonelcassad
Summary of the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation on the progress of the special military operation (as of April 22, 2024)

The Armed Forces of the Russian Federation continue to conduct a special military operation.

— Units of the “Southern” group of forces, as a result of successful actions, completely liberated the settlement of Novomikhailovka of the Donetsk People’s Republic and improved the tactical position along the front line.

The manpower and equipment of the 10th mountain assault, 79th, 92nd air assault, 46th, 81st airmobile, 22nd, 23rd, 28th, 41st, 93 were defeated 1st mechanized brigades of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the areas of the settlements of Belogorovka of the Lugansk People's Republic, Spornoe, Minkovka, Kleshcheevka, Chasov Yar, Andreevka and Ostroye of the Donetsk People's Republic.

Three counterattacks of assault groups of the 33rd mechanized and 80th air assault brigades of the Ukrainian Armed Forces were repelled in the areas of Bogdanovka and Pobeda settlements of the Donetsk People's Republic.

The Ukrainian Armed Forces' losses amounted to up to 410 military personnel, nine vehicles, and a 122-mm Gvozdika self-propelled artillery mount . Also destroyed : the Enclave electronic warfare station and an ammunition depot .

— Units of the “West” group of troops occupied more advantageous positions and defeated the formations of the 21st mechanized and 95th air assault brigades of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the area of ​​the village of Terny, Donetsk People’s Republic.

In the area of ​​the village of Grigorovka, Donetsk People's Republic, four counterattacks by assault groups of the 12th Special Forces Brigade of the National Guard ("Azov"*) were repelled.

The enemy lost up to 25 military personnel, two pickup trucks, as well as a 122-mm Gvozdika self-propelled artillery mount .

— Units of the “Center” group of troops improved their tactical position and repelled nine counterattacks by assault groups of the 25th Airborne, 68th, 71st Jaegers, 59th Motorized Infantry, 24th, 47th, 100th and 115th -th mechanized brigades of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the areas of the settlements of Pervomaiskoye, Semenovka, Netaylovo and Berdychi of the Donetsk People's Republic.

The Ukrainian Armed Forces lost up to 365 military personnel, a German-made “Marder” infantry fighting vehicle , 12 vehicles, a 122-mm D-30 howitzer , as well as three electronic warfare stations: “Nota” and “Bukovel-AD” .

— Units of the Vostok group of troops occupied more advantageous positions and defeated the formationsThe 58th motorized infantry, 72nd mechanized brigades of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the 102nd and 128th defense brigades in the areas of the settlements of Staromayorskoe, Ugledar, Urozhaynoye of the Donetsk People's Republic and Chervonoye of the Zaporozhye region.

The losses of the Ukrainian Armed Forces amounted to up to 95 military personnel, two vehicles, as well as a 155-mm FH-70 howitzer made in Great Britain.

— Units of the Dnepr group of troops inflicted complex fire damage on the personnel and equipment of the 141st Infantry, 65th Mechanized and 128th Mountain Assault Brigades of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the areas of the settlements of Rabotino, Novoandreevka and Stepovoe, Zaporozhye region. The enemy lost up to 45 troops and two pickup trucks.

— Operational-tactical aviation, missile forces and artillery of groupings of troops of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation hit : an air defense position area, a storage point for unmanned boats, manpower and military equipment of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in 142 areas.

Air defense systems shot down 240 Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicles per day .

— In total, since the beginning of the special military operation, the following have been destroyed : 592 aircraft, 270 helicopters, 22,529 unmanned aerial vehicles, 508 anti-aircraft missile systems, 15,817 tanks and other armored combat vehicles, 1,269 combat vehicles of multiple launch rocket systems, 9,040 field artillery guns and mortars, and also 21,232 units of special military vehicles.

https://t.me/s/boris_rozhin

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Sputnik Donbass Correspondent Russell Bentley Dies in Donetsk
APRIL 21, 2024


A mural depicting Russell Bonner Bentley, a 64-year old American from Texas who first served in the DPR as a soldier and more recently as a war correspondent before his untimely death in April, 2024. Photo: Sputnik.

Bentley went missing in Donetsk on April 8, following a Ukrainian artillery attack on the city’s Petrovsky district. Four days later, the DPR Ministry of Internal Affairs put him on a missing persons list.
Sputnik Donbass correspondent Russell Bentley has died at the age of 64, his wife Lyudmila confirmed to Sputnik.
Expressing condolences, Margarita Simonyan, the editor-in-chief of Sputnik’s parent media group Rossiya Segodnya, wrote on her Telegram channel: “Russell Bentley, also known as Texas, a real American from Texas, died in Donetsk. He fought there for our people. Collaborated with our Sputnik. [It’s] terrible. R.I.P….”


Bentley, who was born and raised in the United States, arrived to the Donbass in 2014 to help the fledgling local militias resist Ukrainian occupation.
From 2014 to 2017, he served in the Sut Vremeni (lit. “Essence of Time”) combat unit, Vostok Battalion and Khan special forces battalion. He took part in some of the most heated battles during the early stage of the Donbass conflict, including Donetsk Airport, Spartak, Avdeyevka, and Yasinovataya.
After retiring from military service, Bentleу turned to humanitarian aid work and journalism. He converted to Russian Orthodox Christianity and in 2021 received Russian citizenship.

Bentley began contributing to Sputnik International in October 2023, publishing numerous video reports and columns that provided Westerners with an inside look at life in the Donbass.

https://orinocotribune.com/sputnik-donb ... n-donetsk/

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UPDATE 2 TO “Did the West Intentionally Incite Putin to War?”
by GORDONHAHN
April 19, 2024

The Western media repeats as a mantra the term ‘Putin’s unprovoked war against Ukraine.” The operative word and intentionally provoked inference readers, it is hoped, will make is that the West did absolutely nothing to provoke Putin’s mid-February 2022 decision to begin a ‘special military operation’ in Ukraine in order to coerce Kiev into serious negotiations (not to conquer all Ukraine in preparation to move against all Europe, as the Western mantra repeats further). Further below is my article debunking this view and hypothesising that the very opposite could have been the Western intent in part or whole–to deliberately provoke Putin to invade, believing Putin’s rule is a house of straw that Ukraine with Western assistance could blow down. Sometimes the sheep comes in wolf’s clothing. Above that article below is an update to the first article. Directly below is a second update. Read it all and test your faith that the war in Ukraine was unprovoked and began in February 2022.

UPDATE 2

In a recent, 19 April 2024 interview, Russian Foreign Minister said the US response to Russian President Vladimir Putin’s proposals on a Ukrainian settlement and new European security architecture were virtually ignored, with Washington and Brussels rejecting any an end to NATO expansion and refusing not to place offensive missiles in Ukraine (https://www.kp.ru/daily/27595.5/4921158/). Lavrov noted: “And in 2021, at the end of the year, Putin, after a speech at the Foreign Ministry, instructed (the ministry) to prepare proposals that already reflect the modern era. They (the West) categorically refused to discuss it. I was one of those who participated in this process. First, interdepartmental delegations at the level of deputy departments met there, and then we met in January, on the 10th or 11th (2022), with Blinken. And he told me: there can be no obligations regarding non-expansion of NATO” https://www.kp.ru/daily/27595.5/4921158/).

Regarding placing NATO offensive missiles in Ukraine, Lavrov revealed an extraordinary detail for the first time—that during January 2022 talks with Lavrov, US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken went back on a late 2021 Biden promise that the U.S. was willing to forego placing offensive missiles in Ukraine. Lavrov describes his discussion with Blinken one month before Putin’s decision to carry out Moscow’s ‘special military operation’:

“The Americans withdrew from the treaty on intermediate-range and shorter-range missiles. You (the U.S.) were lamenting about this, although we (Russia) came out because you had already violated it. I reminded him (Blinken) that when they withdrew from the agreement, we said: well, okay, if you consider this to be the only way out of the situation. We declared a unilateral moratorium and invited the Americans to declare their own moratorium. At the same time, Putin’s initiative said bluntly: if you still suspect that our Iskanders in the Kaliningrad region are equipped with the very medium-range missiles that are prohibited by the treaty, please come and take a look. But in response, we want to come to Poland and Romania, where you have already established missile defense bases equipped with installations whose manufacturer Lockheed Martin says in advertising these installations that they are dual-use, including for launching medium-range, ground-based missiles, which were banned. And they deployed these bases and these installations even before the treaty expired. They refused. Here’s an honest suggestion – come and see what you suspect us of, and we’ll go see how this advertisement looks in practice. They refused. And so I told Blinken that here are our comprehensive proposals, we are concerned that you are creating a critical situation and crisis around Ukraine, he says no, no, NATO is not being discussed, but about what you offered us at the time about medium–range missiles, let us, perhaps look at and agree that these missiles, which are no longer prohibited, can be deployed, including in Ukraine. But we will be ready to limit the number of such missiles in Ukraine. I don’t know what else needs to be explained here (about) why a special military operation became inevitable when Ukraine was pumped up under the Nazi, frankly Nazi regime, which banned everything Russian, why it was pumped up with weapons, and we considered this as a direct threat to our security, our traditions, our legitimate interests” (https://www.kp.ru/daily/27595.5/4921158/).

UPDATE 1:

The recent New York Times (NYT) piece on the CIA’s 14 intelligence-gathering and special operations bases in Ukraine somewhere along ‘Russia’s borders’ adds an additional element in support of my hypothesis that US and NATO policies may have been intended to provoke Russian Vladimir Putin’s “unprovoked, brutal invasion of Ukraine” (https://www.nytimes.com/2024/02/25/worl ... a-war.html). In a recent article I noted that the pattern of US and NATO military and ‘diplomatic’ activity in and with regard to Ukraine and Russia certainly provoked the war but also has the appearance of intentional provocations, the purpose of which was to nudge Putin to invade Ukraine in the hope that the border of the political, military, and economic burdens of a major war would collapse Putin’s regime (https://gordonhahn.com/2024/02/27/did-t ... in-to-war/). This might not have been a concerted policy of a unified rational actor functioning single-mindedly, but rather a function of various bureaucratic interests favouring NATO expansion and other provocative policies in relation to Russia for various geopolitical, domestic political, economic reasons, only some of which were intended to provoke Putin. Others provoked Russia accidentally. Together, the one or both of these two processes provoked Putin. Furthermore, the unintentional tier certainly persists and perhaps the hypothesized tier as well. But now all the different NATO members with different multiple bureaucratic interests unintentionally and perhaps intentionally continue to provoke Russia to go further, take more territory in order to force the West and Kiev to the negotiating table they keep smashing to pieces. They do this by way of repeating the insistence on Ukraine’s eventual NATO membership, the escalation in the type of weapons being supplied to Kiev, ever provocative statements about sending to Ukraine expeditionary forces (Britain) or otherwise sending forces (France), and press revelations about the extent of Western military and intelligence presence in Ukraine before, during, and after the war.

The recent NYT article notes that 12 such bases were created and operated in the period of the failed Minsk peace treaty — 2014-2022. Two more were built after the 2022 Russian invasion. In addition, these intelligence bases were directly involved in training and organizing special Ukrainian units, such as Unit 2245, which carried out various assassinations on pro-Russian Donbass separatist leaders and on Russian opinion leaders as well as other attacks. All of these operations were supposedly, according to the article, neither planned nor otherwise supported by Western officers or servicemen at these 14 intel bases, and Western officials supposedly complained to their Ukrainian counterparts about these attacks. This news is a provocation in and of itself, but it also demonstrates the likelihood — indeed, the certainty — that Russian intelligence knew something about these operations not just before the NYT article’s publication but before the 2022 invasion. Indeed, the article itself notes there was a “shadow war” surrounding the CIA and its Ukrainian bases’ activities. In the last months of the Obama administration and in between Obama era assassinations of pro-Russian separatists this shadow war was “in overdrive.” “The Russians used a car bomb to assassinate the head of Unit 2245, the elite Ukrainian commando force. The commander, Col. Maksim Shapoval, was on his way to meeting with C.I.A. officers in Kyiv when his car exploded,” the NYT reveals now.

Again, as with NATO military training and equipping of the Ukrainian army before the war, this CIA-tied intelligence and operational activity of the Ukrainians informed Putin’s decision to invade and was designed by the CIA or elements within it or the government at-large (Victoria Nulled) to do precisely that. In addition to all the above, the fact that the article attributes many of the assassination s and other attacks to the CIA-trained Ukrainian GRU chief Kyryll Budanov, who was the star of the CIA training programs at the noted bases, as the article emphasizes.

In addition, the article notes: “The C.I.A. and the HUR have built two other secret bases to intercept Russian communications, and combined with the 12 forward operating bases, which General Kondratiuk says are still operational, the HUR now collects and produces more intelligence than at any time in the war — much of which it shares with the C.I.A.” This is interesting in several ways in terms of the provocation thesis. First, the two new bases are not mentioned as forward-based as are the 12 pre-war bases. This means they could be located farther from the front line and even beyond the Dnepr in western Ukraine. Furthermore, the entire article suggests that the 12 forward-based centers have been or are being dismantled or moved—perhaps to locations such as those of the two new bases. It is interesting that the NYT authors write that Gen. Kondratiuk “says” the bases are still operational rather than writing that they ‘are’ still operational. Fourteen Western Ukrainian CIA bases, producing ‘now collecting and producing more intelligence than at any time in the war,’ could be cause to expand to expand Russia’s invasion and territorial presence if not annexations to western Ukraine—a motivation absent otherwise. This in turn can be used to claim U.S. claims about Putin wanting to seize all of Ukraine from the start of his invasion were accurate.

Another interesting possible provocation contained in the article, particularly if one reads between the lines, is the revelation that former Ukrainian SBU chief and known neofascist, Valentin Nalyvaichenko is “the C.I.A.’s trusted partner” and that “(d)uring a previous stint as spy chief, Mr. Nalyvaichenko started a similar partnership with the C.I.A., which dissolved when the country swung back toward Russia.” Should one believe that the relationship ‘dissolved’ and non-existent during the period of Viktor Yanukovych’s administration which Maidan put an end to and brought Nalyvauchenko back to power?

It is especially curious that when the NYT article refers to Putin’s war near the end of an article that demonstrates just how much Moscow was provoked into invading, it refers to the war as “Putin’s war” without the usually inevitable, obligatory adjective ‘unprovoked’. It appears even the NYT’s editors understood that the contents of the article — its litany of CIA-related and -induced terrorist attacks, assassinations, and other intelligence and operational activity — demonstrated just how much Putin’s invasion was in fact provoked. The contrast between the article’s provocative content and a claim that the NATO-Russia Ukrainian war is “Putin’s unprovoked war” was even clear to the NYT.

Finally, it should be remembered that this article could not have been published without Langley’s top officer approving its publication. Is Mr. Burns also in on the provocation game? In this war, the West, Russia, and Ukraine share of responsibility; to be sure, some more than others. As soon as the Washington, Brussels, and Kiev admit that to themselves and their peoples, the sooner the war will end, perhaps saving Ukraine.

https://gordonhahn.com/2024/04/19/updat ... in-to-war/

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A TV tower was folded in Kharkov
April 22, 17:19



A TV tower was destroyed by a well-aimed hit in Kharokva. Two years late. But better late than never.

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/9109749.html

The Russian Armed Forces liberated Ocheretino
April 22, 21:21



And quickly here. Russian flags are raised in Ocheretino. The enemy is fleeing the most important village.

(Video at link.)

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/9109785.html

The TV tower in Kharkov will not be restored
April 23, 13:03



1. The TV tower in Kharkov will not be restored until the end of the war.
2. There are still serious problems with digital signal reception in Kharkov.
3. The group of the Russian Armed Forces on the border of the Kharkov region received the designation Group N with the corresponding letter.
4. In areas bordering Russia, the enemy carries out forced evacuation of the local population.

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/9110832.html

Google Translator

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Eastern Ukraine: Ten-Year Anniversary of the Anti-Coup Rebellion
Posted by INTERNATIONALIST 360° on APRIL 22, 2024
Dmitri Kovalevich



April 2014 was a pivotal month for the people of the Donbass region in what was then still part of Ukraine. It was then that the governing regime was newly installed in Kiev by a coup d’état on February 20/21embarked on military hostilities against the people of the region. The coup overthrew Ukraine’s elected president and legislature. It sparked rebellion in Crimea, Donbass (Lugansk and Donetsk), and in towns and cities in other regions of eastern and southern Ukraine.

The coup installed a pro-Western, anti-Russia government. Police actions by the new regime to suppress opposition to the coup only deepened the rebellions, whose consequences are still felt today.

On April 10, 2014, a group of communists in the city of Lugansk seized the local headquarters of the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU), the national police agency of Ukraine. They issued demands for the release of opponents of the U.S.-supported coup who had been jailed for upholding Ukraine’s shaky constitutional foundation and opposing the coup, whose epicenter was Maidan Square in central Kiev.

Uprisings against the coup government quickly spread throughout southern and eastern Ukraine, including in Crimea, the two Donbass oblasts (provinces) of Lugansk and Donetsk, and, to a lesser degree, in Odessa and other cities and towns.

No one could have imagined in Lugansk in early April 2014 that hostilities could end in full-scale warfare by Kiev with essential political and military backing by the United States and the NATO military alliance it leads. But that is exactly what unfolded. The attempt by Kiev to suppress opposition to the coup in Donbass soon escalated into an eight-year war by Kiev. In early 2022, that war escalated into today’s large-scale conflict with Russia.

Elsewhere in Ukraine, the people of Crimea avoided war by voting on March 16 to secede from the coup Ukraine and join the Russian Federation. The people of Odessa city were not so lucky. On May 2, a day of anti-coup protest in the city ended in tragedy when right-wing paramilitaries who had traveled to the city from elsewhere in Ukraine for the purpose of violent provocations set fire to the large building in the center of the city where protesters had taken refuge from paramilitary violence. More than 45 protesters died.

The hypocrisy of democracy – some are allowed to have it, others not so

On April 10 in Lugansk, hundreds of local residents took up the call of the local Communist Party activists. One of the main arguments for storming the SBU building was the example set by coup fomenters in late 2013 and early 2014 in seizing police stations (and their arsenals of weapons) in western Ukraine, for example in the city of Lviv, the sixth largest city in Ukraine at the time, with a population of some 750,000. The communists in Lugansk argued that opponents of the coup should take similar actions to those of the coup makers months earlier.

The Western powers were watching events very closely. For them, violence and the seizure of weapons by some groups (right-wing paramilitaries) was justified, while for others (anti-coup protesters) it was totally ‘illegal’. This policy of double standards was on full display as the violent assault by Kiev against the population of Donbass began in earnest in April 2014. Locals became all the more convinced that all the talk coming from Western leaders and institutions about ‘equality’ and ‘democracy’ for Ukraine was nothing more than empty words.

Goal was autonomy; the accusations of ‘separatism’ were false

As rebellion quickly grew in Donbass, far-right paramilitary formations which were already formed in the west of the country to carry out the coup, or which rapidly developed following it, threatened violent, armed actions to suppress the developing protests in Kharkiv, Donetsk, Lugansk, and Zaporizhzhya oblasts and in other locations in the south and east. But the paramilitaries were only partly ‘successful’ (for example, one month later in Odessa).

In Lugansk and Donetsk cities, the local police offered little or no resistance to the anti-coup rebellions. This was parallel to how police in the western regions of Ukraine had largely stood by as the coming coup gained momentum in late 2013. As it turned out, much of the existing police and army personnel in Lugansk and Donetsk crossed over to the side of anti-coup protests, bringing their weapons with them. This was a major blow to Kiev and the West. Additionally, the soldiers of the Ukraine army as a whole were proving to be reluctant to follow orders to fire on anti-coup protesters. The paramilitaries responded to this by forming their own, military battalions, while the coup regime in Kiev embarked on a transformation of army personnel as a whole. In the coming years, the paramilitary formations would receive official status as autonomous constituents of the army and national police.

The BBC’s Ukraine service reported on the seizure of the SBU headquarters in Lugansk on April 10, 2014, writing, “The police did not interfere with the takeover and left the building to the applause of pro-Russian [sic] activists who had gathered in the square. The crowd chanted ‘Russia’ and ‘referendum’.”

The BBC report went on to cite the broadcast of a leader of the anti-coup protests in Lugansk, Vyacheslav Petrov, who appealed to the population. “I ask you not to panic. Everything will be fine. We are preparing for a referendum, which will take place on May 11. For that, everyone must think and make a choice.” The BBC continued, “The demands [of the anti-coup protest in Lugnsk] included an amnesty for all political prisoners, a referendum [on autonomy], the abolition of price and tariff increases, and giving the Russian language an official status of state language.”[1]

‘Pro-Russian’ or anti-coup?

Anti-coup protesters in Donbass wanted a referendum to decide the future of the territory. They were inspired by the events taking place in Crimea. There, the government of the Autonomous Republic of Crimea (ARC) responded promptly to the threats by Ukraine authorities and paramilitaries to invade the territory and suppress opposition to the coup. With the cooperation of Russian leaders in Moscow and Russian armed forces long established in Crimea by a 1997 ‘treaty of friendship’ (Wikipedia) between Russia and Ukraine, the ARC government held a referendum on March 16, 2014, on the future status of the territory. An overwhelming majority voted to secede from Ukraine and join the Russian Federation. Polling showed that even a majority of ethnic Ukrainians residing in the peninsula voted in favor.

Thus ended Ukraine’s unpopular and unconstitutional governance of Crimea, ‘bestowed’ upon Ukraine by the leaders of the Soviet Union (USSR) in 1954, albeit with no vote offered to the local population. Crimea was the only region of Ukraine to have a regional, autonomous government. This meant that the very strong anti-coup sentiment in early 2014 had an immediate solution in the form of a referendum organized by the ARC, which was a fully constitutional entity of Ukraine.

Unfortunately, no such quick and democratic option was available to the other anti-coup regions of Ukraine, notably in Donbass. That’s because these regions lacked any strong forms of local or regional government that could step into the breach once the elected and constitutional government in Kiev was overthrown. It was also because the existing political parties in the anti-coup regions, as in the rest of Ukraine, largely represented only the economic elites.[2]

‘Separatism’ or political autonomy?

Western governments and media responded to the anti-coup protests in central and eastern Ukraine with epithets, calling them ‘separatist’. This was utterly false. The republics of Lugansk and Donetsk are, indeed, today constituents of the Russian Federation. The reason for this is the obstinance of Ukraine’s coup leaders. Following its military defeat in Donbass in early 2015, the Kiev regime signed the ‘Minsk 2’ peace agreement of February 12, 2015 (text here). It contained sweeping autonomy measures for Lugansk and Donetsk. The UN Security Council endorsed the agreement unanimously a short five days later. But as subsequent events proved, Kiev and its foreign backers, notably France and Germany who, like Russia, co-signed Minsk 2 as ‘guarantors’. But unlike Russia, the two EU powers never intended to implement it. As subsequent revelations showed, Kiev and its EU ‘co-signers’ never intended to implement Minsk 2; they signed it in order to ‘buy time’ for Ukraine’s army and paramilitaries to regroup and re-arm.

The claim that the ‘pro-autonomy movement’ in Donbass, to give it its proper name, was ‘pro-Russian’ was another of the Ukrainian and Western epithets. Of course, there was widespread pro-Russian sentiment in Donbass. Historically, the region had always been Russian in its ethnic composition. It always had positive economic relations with the Russian Federation and the Russian Soviet Republic before that. Where was the crime in that? But for the rulers of Ukraine and the West, this was, indeed, a ‘crime’ because they were embarked on a course to weaken Russia and to displace it entirely from Donbass and other regions of Ukraine. They wanted Ukraine to totally uproot its economic relations with Russia and become an economic subordinate to the EU and the United States.

Battle for Chasov Yar

After ten years, the territory of Lugansk is fully under the control of the Lugansk People’s Republic and it is a constituent of the Russian Federation. Next door in Donetsk, a battle is taking place in and around the town of Chasov Yar, app. 100 kilometers north of Donetsk city. This follows the capture by Russian forces of the city of Avdeevka several weeks ago, barely 20 km north of Donetsk, and the capture of the larger city of Artemivsk (called ‘Bakhmut’ in Ukraine, also app. 100 km north of Donetsk) in May 2023.

The tactics being used by the Russian Armed Forces at Chasov Yar (pre-war population 12,000) are similar to those at Avdeevka (barely 20 km north of Donetsk) and Artemivsk. Ukrainian troop positions are hit with heavy aerial bombs that destroy underground fortifications. Assault groups then surround the city from three sides, leaving only one way out: retreat westward toward Ukraine.

The ‘Kholodnyi Yar’ telegram channel of the 93rd Brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine is circulating a video in which a resident of Chasov Yar says he is waiting hopefully for the Russians to come. “He says that he is waiting for Russia and that he has relatives who live there. He says he cannot leave the town because our soldiers shoot all those wanting to cross over to territory held by the Russians.”

The liberation of Chasov Yar by the Russian army may become a turning point in the Russian Special Military Operation (SMO) overall. It certainly opens highly unpredictable scenarios in the entire conflict. Russian military correspondent Alexander Sladkov believes that from Chasov Yar, the Russian offensive will advance in a straight line to the major industrial cities of Kramatorsk, a key railway junction 45 kilometers further east with a pre-war population of 160,000, and nearby Sloviansk. “Kramatorsk is the next city of Donbass that we will liberate,” he predicts.

Forcing Ukrainians to fight for NATO

In this context, it is becoming increasingly difficult for the Kiev regime to conduct its forced military conscription. The most common practice by Ukrainian men of military age [3] to avoid military recruiters is to hide in their homes or in ruins and wait for a chance to surrender to Russian forces. The Strana online news outlet in Ukraine published a report on April 2 by an officer of the AFU under the nickname ‘Night Stalker’ describing common methods used by the Ukraine army to pressure its soldiers who are reluctant to fight (and quite possibly die). It wrote, “How to motivate a recruit to fight who would otherwise choose to lie down in the trench on his belly and wait to surrender? The officer replied that ‘a conversation is enough for some. For others, a beating by the company officer or shooting over the soldier’s head may be needed.’ ”

The officer noted that there are also harsher methods of influence, but the report did not elaborate.

As more and more AFU soldiers are forcibly conscripted (abducted) from their homes or from streets or shops, the number of ‘refuseniks’ – soldiers who refuse to go into combat – is growing in Ukrainian units. As a rule, refuseniks are arrested and then held in cramped, damp cages. The Ukrainian Telegram channel ‘Legitimny’ writes that according to its sources, rising numbers of Ukrainian soldiers are refusing to fight because that “no one wants to fight for the governing regime in Kiev and its leaders since it treats its people as slaves.”

In early April, the German state news outlet Deutsche Welle published a video report from Luzanivka in the Cherkasy region (central Ukraine), explaining there are no men left of military service age in the village. “If someone happens to die, there is no one left here to dig their grave,” says village council chairman Serhiy Nikolaenko. DW reports that about 50 men have been conscripted from the village of 400 people.

Strana cites Deutsche Welle in reporting from the village of Valentina. A resident explains, “In our small village, there are already so many missing and dead. Imagine for the whole of Ukraine!” The resident says both of his sons have been conscripted into the army.

Despite all this, President Volodymyr Zelensky and his government continue to try and ‘sell’ to Western media and politicians that a new ‘counteroffensive’ by the AFU may be launched. This is at a time when the human resources to replace the soldiers being lost to death, injury, or desertion are all but exhausted. “Yes, we have a plan for a counteroffensive. We will definitely win; we have no other alternative. But I can’t promise it and I can’t name a date,” Zelensky stressed in an interview with Germany’s BILD daily newspaper on April 9.

Oleksandr Dubinsky, a former MP from Zelensky’s Servant of the People party, adds that as long as the Ukrainian army is in retreat, it will be difficult to negotiate financial aid. In other words, the Ukraine regime plans to throw yet more Ukrainians into the slaughter so that the Ukrainian elite can maintain its economic ties with the West and continue to receive funding from it.

How neoliberalism has undermined Western hegemony

Another reason for the impossibility of an AFU ‘counteroffensive’ is the shortage of ammunition, which neither the West nor Ukraine are able to replenish. In Ukraine and the West, deindustrialization processes have undermined the ability to quickly organize production facilities.

Russian political scientist Malek Dudakov writes that it is extremely difficult for European Union countries to now boost their production of armaments. The EU countries today buy 80 percent of their armaments from outside their borders; 60 percent of that comes from the United States. “Euro bureaucrats miraculously want to reduce dependence on armaments imports to 50 percent by 2030. This is in the context of a severe crisis already happening in the European economy, due largely to deindustrialization. Even the production of shells faces problems because of the shortages of nitrocellulose (also known as ‘guncotton’) and other cotton products purchased from China,” he writes.

In early April, police searches were conducted in Ukraine and Poland amidst investigations by the Ukraine Defense Ministry of overpriced arms purchases. In 2022, the Ukrainian Defense Ministry signed several contracts with the Polish-registered firm Alfa for the supply of ammunition worth tens of millions of euros. Despite the fact that the firm failed to fulfill the terms of the first several contracts, the Ministry continued to cooperate with it. As of the beginning of 2023, Alfa owed the Defense Ministry more than 3.5 billion hryvnias (US$89 million) for arms purchases never received.

In late February, Zelensky claimed that global prices for artillery shells have increased five times (500%) since the start of the war with the Russian Federation. “Because of the war in Ukraine, even an ordinary artillery shell which cost $1500 at the beginning of the war can cost $4000 to $8000 today. So much for the war. For some it is a war, while for others it is just big business”, he said.

The Wall Street Journal reported on April 10 that U.S. drones produced in California’s Silicon Valley have not performed well in Ukraine. “U.S.-made UAVs [unmanned aerial vehicles] tend to be expensive, faulty and complicated to repair, say drone company executives, Ukrainians on the front lines, Ukrainian government officials, and some former U.S. military officials.”

In general, the entire Western world is oriented to produce small numbers of expensive products, with high involvement of private middlemen. This model turns out to be highly ineffective in modern military conflicts, which require cheap and quick production on a mass scale. The only two ways, then, for Western firms to compete is to exploit the countries of the Global South for cheap production or to lower their own production standards.

Russia, meanwhile, has been undergoing processes of de-privatization, that is the return of manufacturing by private enterprises to state ownership. This helps to eliminate middlemen and make production cheaper. Since 2020, the number of cases in which the Russian Prosecutor General’s Office has challenged the legalities of privatizations during the privatization wave of the 1990s has grown eight times, according to the Russian TV channel RTVI.

The chief of Sweden’s SAAB arms producer, Micael Johansson, recently told the Financial Times that shortages of nitrocellulose were an example of why companies producing armaments need to build new supply chains in today’s “multipolar world” where “not only the Western,’ rules-based order’ will be present”. He added: “We have to think about like-minded countries who we can trust and with whom we can work with in the long term.”

Reading between the lines, the SAAB official’s words mean increased pressure by Western countries on the Global South to locate more and more production there on the cheap. Effectively, it means a continuation of colonialist practices against smaller and less developed countries.

It has been fashionable in recent years for capitalist ideologues and commentators in the imperialist countries to criticize and even condemn the ‘offshoring’ of their manufacturing to China and other countries. But the drive to maximize profits takes precedence, and so offshoring remains an attractive practice. The capitalist system of production serves private interests, not public needs. Thus it has always been and will always remain.

Notes:

In post-Soviet Ukraine, there was and remains only one official language: Ukrainian. This was even true in Crimea where ethnic Ukrainians composed only some 15% of the population. In today’s Crimea (Russian Federation), there are three official languages: Russian, Crimean Tatar, and Ukrainian.
Crimea’s autonomous status dates back to the Russian Revolution of 1917, which implemented sweeping forms of political self-determination for the many nationalities that comprised the pre-Revolution Russian Empire. This was and remains the origin of independent Ukraine. ‘Soviet’ Ukraine was formed during the harsh years of civil war from 1918 to 1920. It went on to become a founding constituent of the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics in 1922. Officials of Soviet Ukraine led a secession from the USSR in 1990/1991. The country had already won its independence 70 years earlier.
Military registration is obligatory in Ukraine for all men between the ages of 18 and 65. The age of military service (conscription) is 25 to 60 (recently reduced from 27).

https://libya360.wordpress.com/2024/04/ ... rebellion/

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Will The Anglo-American Axis Deploy Nukes To Poland?



ANDREW KORYBKO
APR 23, 2024

Any positive decision would be driven by purely political motives since there’s no military necessity for adding Poland to the nuclear-sharing program.

Polish President Andrzej Duda confirmed in an interview during his latest trip to the US that “If our allies decide to deploy nuclear weapons as part of nuclear sharing also on our territory to strengthen the security of NATO's eastern flank, we are ready for it. We are an ally in the North Atlantic Alliance, and we also have obligations in this respect, i.e., we simply implement a common policy.” As a reminder, the Russian Ambassador to Poland told RT earlier this month that the US has yet to oblige Poland’s offer.

He didn’t elaborate why, but it’s not anything new that Poland wants to host American nukes. The only reason why it’s newsworthy is because his confirmation of this intent comes after his latest trip to the US and ahead of NATO’s next annual summit in early July. Moreover, if one reads between the lines, his reference to “our allies” as opposed to the US (the specific country whose nukes he was asked about hosting by his interlocutor) suggests that Poland could possibly host British nukes.

The Anglo-American Axis works in tandem to wage NATO’s proxy war on Russia through Ukraine, and each has excellent bilateral ties with Poland. The UK has also shown itself to be more “daring” in terms of openly provoking Russia than the US has as proven by its Storm Shadow cruise missiles and assistance to Ukraine in striking civilian targets like the Crimean Bridge and cities in Kherson Region. It therefore wouldn’t be far-fetched if they one day deploy their nukes to Poland before the US or instead of it.

Extrapolating the motives at play, the first scenario could be intended to move the needle inside the US in the direction of following suit just like prior weapons deliveries were intended. As for the second, it could be due to the UK’s desire to maintain its “sphere of influence” in the region via “Three Seas Initiative”-leader Poland amidst Germany’s immense gains there since its change of government. In that case, the US could approve of it so as to keep Germany’s continental influence in check via the UK.

To be clear, there’s no credible indication that either member of the Anglo-American Axis is interested in deploying nukes to Poland, who’s been asking the US to do so but to no avail. Any positive decision would be driven by purely political motives since there’s no military necessity for adding Poland to the nuclear-sharing program. It would be presented as a tit-for-tat after Russia deployed tactical nukes in Belarus after NATO’s saber-rattling whereas Russia hasn’t saber-rattled against the bloc in any way.

The blowback, however, could be that Germany gets jealous and begins to fear that its continental influence is being partly replaced by Poland due to the Anglo-American Axis’ favoritism towards it. The EU’s de facto leader already hosts US nukes and more of its partner’s military forces than any country in Europe so expanding the abovementioned program to Poland could make it wonder about their plans. In that event, it might not be as willing to obey their demands vis-à-vis Russia and soon China.

In order to not be misunderstood, Germany wouldn’t “defect” from NATO to the Sino-Russo Entente in any way, it might only be more reluctant to sacrifice its objective national interests (mostly economic in this context) than if it felt comfortable with its perceived prestige over Poland. Germany would probably do their bidding anyhow at the end of the day, but it would be easier for them if it didn’t feel offended by Poland sharing in some of the perceived prestige of hosting nuclear weapons.

Considering the interests at play, while it can’t be ruled out that the Anglo-American Axis might agree to deploy nukes to Poland – whether around the time of NATO’s next summit in early July or sometime afterwards – there’s no reason to expect that it’ll happen anytime soon unless something changes. If Russia achieves a military breakthrough across the front lines, irrespective of whether this prompts a conventional NATO intervention, then that could potentially serve as a tripwire for this scenario.

https://korybko.substack.com/p/will-the ... xis-deploy

[blindpig]

Weapons for defense and attack
POSTED BY @NSANZO ⋅ 04/24/2024



Normality has returned to the dynamics of war since the moment the United States Congress unlocked the $60.8 billion in funding related to the Ukraine war. Although final approval was pending in the Senate, which occurred tonight, the military, political and media machinery has mobilized quickly to get these weapons to the front as quickly as possible and to ensure that this resumption of the flow of military equipment It represents, at the same time, an element of pressure against Russia and an injection of morale for the decimated Ukrainian troops. The Ukrainian discourse, although not with the triumphalism of other phases of the war, has already abandoned the fear of defeat and is now at the stage of expressing gratitude for the assistance, which it defines as the tool that will help stop the Russian army. Judging by what has been published in recent days by people as relevant as Mijailo Podoliak, who insists on the need for a political, economic and commercial break between the West and Russia and timidly begins to propose what type of weapons Ukraine needs, it is Hopefully, sooner rather than later, kyiv will consider American aid insufficient and demand additional financing and equipment from Washington, Berlin, Paris or London.

The Ukrainian and Western discourse seeks a twist in the script that the press has been presenting in recent weeks. Exploiting or exaggerating the danger of the possible victory of the Russian troops is no longer necessary and the authorities are taking steps so that the new assistance does not appear to be just a way to shore up the defense but a step towards some type of victory. In that sense, both real military successes and those that, although more symbolic than effective, can be presented as such, are important. The European and North American capitals are aware of the importance of the current situation and have wanted the first US aid package to be especially significant and to be accompanied by the contribution of other countries.

As published yesterday by Reuters , the first delivery of military assistance from the United States will be higher than on previous occasions. Washington thus seeks to compensate for delays at a particularly sensitive time for Ukraine. On the Donbass front, Russian troops have reached Ocheretino in the last few hours, a town west of Avdeevka and whose strategic importance lies in its geographical position, in one of the few heights that dominate the sector west of Donetsk. The speed with which Russia has advanced on this position, a priori unfavorable for attack and theoretically easy to defend, has surprised Ukraine, which has ordered an investigation into the actions of the 155th Brigade in abandoning its positions. The fight for the town is not over yet, but on Monday DeepState, a Ukrainian source now part of the state news apparatus, admitted that the Russian Federation had captured the center and only one outlying district remained in dispute (the pro-Russian sources They are more cautious). The worsening situation for Ukraine in Donbass is consistent with the latest statements by Kirilo Budanov, who in a recent interview put aside his usual triumphalism to warn that the situation in Ukraine will be dangerous next May. Neither Budanov nor other Ukrainian representatives are warning of a possible defeat, but they do insist that there will be a broader Russian offensive. Budanov points to the attempt to capture the territories of Donetsk and Luhansk under Ukrainian control - essentially the first, since a large part of the LPR is already under Russian control - while Andriy Ermak, head of the President's Office, and his entourage speak of possible advances on Kharkiv.

Judging by the details provided by Reuters , the first delivery of US military material, which will be very fast, since according to the authorities it is prepared and possibly in Europe, will include vehicles, Stinger anti-aircraft missiles, additional ammunition for HIMARS, artillery shells 155-millimeter missiles, TOW and Javelin anti-tank missiles and other weapons that can be used immediately on the front. All of this, especially the anti-tank weapons, indicate Ukraine's preparation for a defensive phase, in no case an offensive one, at least in the land war. However, in the last few hours, Zelensky has indicated the existence of an agreement for the delivery of ATACMS, long-range missiles that kyiv has been demanding for months and with which it will predictably try to attack the Russian rear, both military bases, especially in Crimea. , such as critical infrastructure and logistics facilities. To this we must add the search for anti-aircraft weapons, a task that the G7 adopted as its own and that, judging by the pressure on countries like Greece or Spain, seems to have collided with reality. After announcing the shipment of another Patriot system, the fourth donated by the country, Germany demands that its partners act in a similar way.

It contrasts the fundamentally defensive appearance - although awaiting confirmation of the arrival of American missiles - with the more offensive nature of the British package. The United Kingdom, whose increasingly belligerent Prime Minister announced yesterday that the country will put the military industry in war mode, wanted to accompany its North American ally with a large delivery of weapons. Worth £500m, the package, the largest yet announced, will include ammunition, air defense missiles, armored vehicles, Storm Shadow missiles and 60 different types of vessels, including offshore assault vessels. The UK's focus, centered on Crimea and the Black Sea, seems evident. “Ensuring Ukraine wins is the most important thing we can do for global peace and security,” Rishi Sunnak said in announcing his contribution to the war. Jens Stoltenberg took the same line in a joint press conference. “There is a price we must pay for being close to Russia, but it will be much more expensive to let Putin win,” said the secretary general of the military alliance that has been trying to expand towards Russian borders for three decades.

With the resumption of large-scale military flow, Ukraine must still solve its personnel problems. The approval of the law on mobilization does not automatically imply a change in the situation of the Ukrainian troops, with the need to replenish their ranks. The aggressiveness with which kyiv is handling this issue is a clear indicator of the difficulties and crisis represented by the inability to replace casualties. In the past, the Ukrainian Government has wanted to test public opinion by proposing, in an apparently casual manner, the possibility that European countries could send men of military age (18-60 years) back to Ukraine. The proposal was strongly rejected by countries like Germany, horrified by the idea of ​​sending refugees to a country at war, forgetting that this practice has been common in the case of Afghanistan. Faced with European refusal, kyiv has sought an alternative formula. The new legislation requires all men of military age to keep their military card updated or risk losing consular access. The queues at consulates in countries with the largest Ukrainian refugee populations show that men have tried to get their papers in order before the law comes into force. However, yesterday Dmitro Kuleba announced a further step.

“Stay abroad does not exempt a citizen from his responsibilities towards his homeland. That is why yesterday I gave instructions that measures be taken to restore fair treatment of men of draft age in Ukraine and abroad. "It will be fair," said the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine to confirm that men of military age who are abroad will no longer receive consular services. Apparently, the measure affects not only men who have left the country since the start of the war, but all Ukrainian nationals abroad. Despite criticism and the foreseeable loss of support from thousands of people - around 800,000 men of military age are refugees in the European Union - Ukraine is looking for a way to force its men to return to the country. War not only requires weapons, but especially the personnel to handle them. “If these people believe that someone there, far away on the front, is fighting and giving his life for this state, and someone will sit abroad, but at the same time receive services from this state, then it doesn't work that way,” he added. War is the reason for the existence of the State and fighting in it is currently the definition of citizenship.

https://slavyangrad.es/2024/04/24/29605/

Google Translator

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From Cassad's Telegram account:..

Colonelcassad
Forwarded from
Military chronicle
Where will the Russian army advance after the capture of Ocheretino?

At the moment, the village is clearing and checking the fire lines left by the Ukrainian Armed Forces, but movement may continue in the near future.

Why was Ocheretino taken so quickly?

One of the reasons was the flight from the positions of units of the 115th Mechanized Infantry Brigade of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. This unit was actually abandoned as a human shield, after which the local commanders decided to abandon the village and retreat. This allowed units of the 30th Motorized Rifle Brigade from Samara (they also participated in the breakthrough to Avdeevka) and the 27th Motorized Rifle Brigade to quickly break through to the center of Ocheretin and begin mopping up.

Why was Ocheretino so important?

As soon as the village and its surroundings are cleared and protected, and the reinforcement groups are occupied by the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the north-western part, the key height and a large number of buildings will make it possible to create an ideal center for the concentration of forces. This is what Chasov Yar was like for the Ukrainian Armed Forces at the stage of the battle for Artyomovsk, but the Ukrainian army was unable to properly manage the favorable conditions at that time.

How will Russian troops move forward?

After the capture of Ocheretin, it may be logical to make a new push along the tactical heights and advance towards the logistics hub of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Novogrodovka - Selidovo - Pokrovsk - Mirnograd. Much in this matter will depend on the continued activity of operational-tactical aviation and the use of aerial bombs, the work of artillery and the attempts of the Ukrainian Armed Forces to recapture the dominant heights. In addition, there is still no clarity about the fate of the Ukrainian Armed Forces garrison between Berdychi and Novopokrovsky. After advancing to Ocheretino from the north and to Netailovo from the south, these units are half-covered and do not have a significant chance of any success even at the tactical level. However, the command of the OSG Tavria is not yet in a hurry to withdraw them.

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Colonelcassad
Summary of the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation on the progress of the special military operation (as of April 23, 2024)

The Armed Forces of the Russian Federation continue to conduct a special military operation.

— Units of the “West” group of forces occupied more advantageous positions and defeated the formations of the 63rd mechanized brigade of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the area of ​​the village of Chervonaya Dibrova, Lugansk People’s Republic.

The enemy lost up to 20 military personnel, two vehicles, a 152 mm Msta-B howitzer and a 152 mm D-20 gun.

— Units of the “Southern” group of forces, as a result of active actions, improved the tactical position along the front line and defeated the manpower and equipment of the 79th air assault and 46th airmobile brigades of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the areas of the settlements of Konstantinovka, Paraskovievka and Ostroye of the Donetsk People’s Republic.

The Ukrainian Armed Forces' losses amounted to up to 500 military personnel, three tanks, an infantry fighting vehicle, five vehicles, a 152 mm Msta-B howitzer, a 122 mm D-30 howitzer, as well as three field ammunition depots.

— Units of the “Center” group of troops improved their tactical position and also repelled nine counterattacks by assault groups of the 25th Airborne, 59th Motorized Infantry, 68th and 71st Jaegers, 23rd, 24th, 100th and the 115th mechanized brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the areas of the settlements of Rozovka, Umanskoye, Novobakhmutovka, Pervomaiskoye, Ocheretino, Netaylovo, Berdychi and Semenovka of the Donetsk People's Republic.

The Ukrainian Armed Forces lost up to 360 military personnel, two armored combat vehicles, five cars, a 155 mm M777 howitzer made in the USA, a 152 mm Msta-B howitzer, a 122 mm D-30 howitzer, a 122 mm Gvozdika self-propelled artillery mount, as well as 105 mm M101 gun made in the USA.

— Units of the Vostok group of forces occupied more advantageous positions and defeated the formations of the 59th motorized infantry, 72nd mechanized brigades of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and the 128th terrestrial defense brigade in the areas of the settlements of Staromayorskoe, Vodyanoye and Urozhaynoye of the Donetsk People’s Republic.

The losses of the Armed Forces of Ukraine amounted to up to 95 military personnel, three vehicles, a 155 mm Caesar self-propelled artillery mount made in France, as well as the Nota electronic warfare station.

— Units of the Dnepr group of troops inflicted fire damage on the personnel and equipment of the 65th mechanized brigade of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, the 121st and 126th terrestrial defense brigades in the areas of the settlements of Rabotino, Zaporozhye region, Berislav and Zolotaya Balka, Kherson region.

The enemy lost up to 70 military personnel, an armored personnel carrier and two pickup trucks, a 155 mm US-made M777 howitzer, two 122 mm D-30 howitzers, as well as a 122 mm Gvozdika self-propelled artillery mount.

— Operational-tactical aviation, missile forces and artillery of groupings of troops of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation destroyed a launcher of the MIM-23 HAWK anti-aircraft missile system made in the USA, and also hit: a warehouse with unmanned aerial vehicles of the 113th Terrestrial Defense Brigade, manpower and military equipment of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in 115 districts.

—In one day, air defense systems shot down 104 Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicles, a Tochka-U tactical missile, six HIMARS missiles made in the USA and Alder, as well as four Hammer aircraft guided bombs made in France.

— In total, since the beginning of the special military operation, the following have been destroyed : 592 aircraft, 270 helicopters, 22,633 unmanned aerial vehicles, 509 anti-aircraft missile systems, 15,824 tanks and other armored combat vehicles, 1,269 combat vehicles of multiple launch rocket systems, 9,065 field artillery guns and mortars, and also 21,252 units of special military vehicles.

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Colonelcassad
How the front-line areas of the Belgorod region live under shelling. According to a statement by Governor Gladkov, since the beginning of the war, 112 people, including several children, have been killed by shelling in the Belgorod region.

Tonight the enemy fired at the Belgorod region again, and the air defense worked well.
Despite heavy losses in self-propelled guns and MLRS, the enemy continues to attempt terrorist attacks, attaching more importance to the informational consequences of terror than to the real military meaning of these attacks.
Which quite logically stems from the terrorist essence of the Nazi regime in Kyiv.

To stop such shelling, it is necessary to transfer the northern regions of the Kharkov and Sumy regions to Russian control. With subsequent inclusion into Russia, of course.

https://t.me/s/boris_rozhin

Google Translator

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APRIL 22, 2024 BY M. K. BHADRAKUMAR
Ukraine: US doubles down, Russia is cool


US to transfer ATACMS system to Ukraine with 300 km range

Russia’s free running in the Ukraine war in the most recent months is about to end as the Biden Administration has met with success, finally, in the US Congress on the long-stalled Ukraine aid bill. The aid approved by the House on Saturday would send $60.8 billion to Ukraine.

Senate approval is expected as soon as Tuesday. President Biden has promised, “I will immediately sign this law to send a signal to the whole world: we support our friends and will not allow Iran or Russia to succeed,”

To be sure, the US is doubling down to frustrate Russia’s perceived plans for an outright Russian military victory in Ukraine through this year. Unsurprisingly, Washington’s transatlantic allies are also rallying, which is the message coming out of the virtual meeting of the NATO-Ukraine Council at the level of Allied Defence Ministers chaired by Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg at Brussels on Saturday.

The sense of relief in Kiev is palpable with President Volodymyr Zelenskyy telling NBC, “I think this support will really strengthen the armed forces of Ukraine, and we will have a chance for victory.” He said the US lawmakers moved to keep “history on the right track.”

On the other hand, the Russian foreign ministry reaction has been rather polemical — as if Moscow was anticipating the development. What seems to perturb Moscow most in the US aid bill is the thinking favouring the confiscation of frozen Russian assets to fund Ukraine, which, the Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov singled out “because this is essentially the destruction of all the foundations of the economic system. This is an encroachment on state property, on state assets and on private property. By no means should this be perceived as legal action — it is illegal. And accordingly, it will be subject to retaliatory actions and legal proceedings.”

Moscow would sense that the American intention is, first, to force the EU too onto a similar trajectory and thereby destroy whatever residual prospects remain for reconciliation between Russia and Europe for a long time to come; second, provide the wherewithal to ultimately utilise the Russian frozen assets to generate business for the US military-industrial complex; and, three, in geopolitical terms, create a precedent in any future showdown between the West and China.

Suffice to say, Moscow is right in estimating that in a longer term perspective, the 21st Century Peace through Strength Act, which was also passed by the US House of Representatives with a bipartisan vote of 360-58 on Saturday empowering empowering the US executive branch to seize and transfer frozen Russian assets held in the US to Ukraine is fraught with consequences far more devastating than the $60 billion financial aid for Ukraine. Curiously, they complement each other too.

Make no mistake about the bipartisan consensus in the Congress in this regard. This is important to know as Donald Trump has apparently shed his ambivalence and decided to be supportive of the Ukraine aid bill. The meeting between Trump and the Republican House speaker Mike Johnson in the run-up to the vote in the House on Saturday would suggest that Johnson might not be ousted, after all, by his far-right House Republican colleagues.

Beijing understands the diabolical play perfectly well. A commentary in the Global Times on Sunday said, “If the bill [on Russian assets] ultimately becomes law and goes into effect, it will set a disastrous precedent against the existing international financial order.”

Of course, the Russian military moves going forward will be keenly watched. For, in such fluid circumstances, actions will speak better than words. At any rate, an inflection point has come since, evidently with an eye on Russian President Vladimir Putin’s forthcoming visit to Beijing, the Biden Administration is also shifting gear to explicitly threaten China for allegedly supporting the Russian defence industry. The US Secretary of State Antony Blinken is paying a 3-day visit to China on Wednesday.

Taken together, what emerges is that the Biden Administration is doubling down on the Ukraine war, contrary to earlier prognosis that war fatigue is setting in. Meanwhile, Pentagon spokesperson Maj. Gen. Pat Ryder has disclosed to Politico in a statement that the Biden Administration is considering sending additional military advisers to Ukraine, since “security conditions have evolved.”

These additional personnel “would not be in a combat role, but rather would advise and support the Ukrainian government and military.” The specific numbers of personnel remain confidential “for operational security and force protection reasons.” They will support logistics and oversight efforts for the weapons the US is sending Ukraine and “new contingent will also help the Ukrainian military with weapons maintenance.”

Indeed, the sophistry of non-combat role apart, what is in the cards is an incremental expansion of the US military presence in Ukraine, notwithstanding Biden’s repeated assertions that US troops wouldn’t participate in the war on Ukraine’s behalf, as doing so would increase the risk of a direct Russian-American military confrontation.

Citing sources, Politico further reported that “One of the tasks the advisers will tackle is helping the Ukrainians plan sustainment of complex equipment donated by the US as the summer fighting is expected to ramp up.”

How does the new US $60.75 billion aid package add up? It includes $23.2 billion intended to replenish US weapons stocks; $13.8 billion for the purchase of advanced weapons systems for Ukraine; and another $11.3 billion for “ongoing US military operations in the region.”

That is to say, in effect, the direct military assistance to Ukraine will actually amount to about $13.8 billion till end-2024. The Russian experts estimate that this allocation rules out another Ukrainian “counteroffensive.” But that is small comfort, since the increased flow of US weaponry will beef up the Ukrainian military capability to withstand the Russian offensive, which cannot but impact the present balance of forces at the front.

From a military angle, in immediate terms, the cutting edge of the aid bill lies in the fact that it opens the gateway for the transfer to Ukraine of tactical missile systems [ATACMS] capable of hitting targets at a distance of up to 300 km, which brings Crimea within its range. Reportedly, French troops are already on the ground in Odessa numbering 1000 and another contingent is expected shortly. This was of course forecast a few weeks ago by the Russian foreign intelligence but Paris had flatly denied it. (here and here)

The bottom line here is that the aid package aims on the one hand to avoid a catastrophic military situation arising at the front in the coming months, which could be politically damaging for Biden’s re-election bid, while on the other hand, the bulk of funds actually goes to the US arms manufacturers in some key “swing states” and gratifies the influential military-industrial complex and the Deep State.

Biden told Wall Street Journal, “We will send military equipment from our own stocks, and then use the money authorised by Congress to replenish these stocks by buying them from American suppliers. This includes Patriot missiles made in Arizona, Javelin missiles made in Alabama, and artillery shells made in Pennsylvania, Ohio and Texas.”

To be sure, the triumphalist narrative of the Ukraine war by the US state department is on a comeback trail.

https://www.indianpunchline.com/ukraine ... a-is-cool/

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As Ukraine’s Defeat Looms, Imaginary War Unravels
Posted by INTERNATIONALIST 360° on APRIL 23, 2024
Kit Klarenberg



With the Imaginary War nearing over, and the Zionist genocide in Gaza beginning, it was, of course, necessary to wind down “OSINT” operations entirely, or focus them elsewhere.
On April 11th, US General Christopher Gerard Cavoli, chief of Washington’s European Command and Supreme Allied Commander Europe, addressed US lawmakers on Ukraine’s dire battlefield situation, warning Kiev “could lose” without further Wunderwaffe. Along the way, he made a number of startling disclosures about the size of Russia’s military, and losses, which detonated numerous narratives universally and unquestioningly perpetuated by the mainstream media from the very start of the proxy war to this day.

“We do not see significant losses in the air domain, especially their (Russian) long-range and strategic aviation fleets…Russia’s strategic forces, long-range aviation, cyber capabilities, space capabilities, and capabilities in the electromagnetic spectrum have lost no capacity at all,” Cavoli said. In all, while the Russian air force had lost “some aircraft”, this represented “only about 10% of their fleet”:

“The overall message I would give you is [Russia’s military has] grown back to what they were before…their overall capacity is very significant still, and they intend to make it go higher…Russia is reconstituting [its forces] far faster than our initial estimates suggested. The army is actually now larger — by 15% — than it was when it invaded Ukraine…Russia launches very large-scale attacks every few days keeping with their production rate…They produce, they save up, they launch a big attack.”

Such is the pace at which events move these days, many may have forgotten that in December 2023 a US intelligence report, conveniently declassified right when Volodymyr Zelensky was touring Washington desperately attempting to drum up support for yet more “aid”, suggested Russia had lost 90% of its prewar army, with combat deaths in excess of 300,000. The report claimed Moscow’s personnel and vehicle losses were so severe, it would take 18 years to replenish what was hemorrhaged over the invasion to date.

Independent analyst Will Schryver has coined the term “Imaginary War” in respect of the proxy conflict. It is a battle primarily concerned with convincing Western citizens that free, democratic Kiev is making a heroic stand against Russian barbarism, which it can and will win. Ukraine, with NATO’s backing, was until recently excelling in this effort. Every step of the way though, they’ve been losing the real war – and badly.

‘Intelligence Updates’

Social media is a core component of the Imaginary War. Academic research shows Twitter is home to a massive pro-Ukraine bot army, endlessly pumping out pro-Kiev, anti-Russian messaging. The same is no doubt true of every social media platform. This helps create the illusion of nigh-universal support for Ukraine globally, when outside the West, populations and governments are either neutral, or outright supportive of Russia, perceiving the conflict to be a strike against NATO, and Western imperialism.

Furthermore, over the first 18 months of the conflict, mainstream journalists, pundits, and politicians heavily depended on the unsubstantiated pronouncements of “Oryx”, an anonymous Twitter account analysing on-the-ground imagery, for loss figures on both sides. Its posts suggested from day one, destruction of Russian tanks, jets, armoured vehicles and more was many orders of magnitude higher than that suffered by Ukraine, indicative generally of the war being an unmitigated disaster for the invaders.

A representative March 17th 2022 Washington Post investigation boldly declared Russia had to date “lost thousands of soldiers and thousands of vehicles while failing to make significant progress,” based almost entirely on Oryx’s findings. Similarly, a BBC article the next month prominently touted figures produced by Oryx suggesting Ukraine had “destroyed, damaged or captured at least 82 Russian aircraft, including jets, helicopters and drones,” while only sacrificing 33 of its own.

A nameless Western intelligence official told the BBC Kiev desperately required “long and mid-range air defences”, in “large quantities.” UAF Captain Vasyl Kravchuk, reportedly possessed of a “surprisingly ready smile” when he spoke to Britain’s state broadcaster, signed off by stating, “past wars have shown, whoever dominates the air wins the war.” The underlying propaganda message, that Ukraine was so far comfortably prevailing in the skies, but needed Western help to keep it up – and therefore emerge victorious overall – couldn’t have been clearer.

Oryx’s findings were even routinely cited by Britain’s Ministry of Defence in daily Twitter “intelligence updates”, which were widely shared, and subsequently featured in and informed the content and headlines of many news reports. For example, in April 2023 an update asserted, “Russia has lost 10,000+ military vehicles since its illegal invasion of Ukraine began, according to tracker Oryx.” The post was viewed over one million times. Parliament’s 2023 Intelligence and Security Committee report boasted that “the impact” of these “unprecedented” updates was “substantial”.

The report went on to note how the Ministry of Defence intelligence estimates “informed decisions made by [government] ministers and Armed Forces chiefs” on London’s “posture towards Russia.” One can only hope Oryx’s output did not formally influence Britain’s proxy war strategy in Ukraine. Audits by eagle-eyed internet sleuths have demonstrated the account consistently perpetuated wildly inaccurate, inflated figures, by counting photos and footage of the same damaged vehicles shot from different angles as individual, separate Russian losses, while misrepresenting Ukraine’s destroyed Soviet-era vehicles as Russian.

Conspicuously, Oryx abruptly ceased its work when Ukraine’s much-vaunted, long-delayed “Spring” counteroffensive began in June 2023. A cynic might suggest, given Kiev was equipped with heavily hyped Western Wunderwaffe for the effort, whoever was running the operation – and/or the individuals and entities ultimately managing them – concluded the same dishonest tactics couldn’t work this time round. In October 2023, the account was deleted outright without warning or explanation, meaning its bogus archive can no longer be critically scrutinised at all.

‘Classic Hero’

Coincidentally, that same month, a number of anonymous, high profile “OSINT” accounts similarly focused on Ukraine likewise abruptly shuttered, or announced their intention to do so. This included Calibre Obscura. Beloved by NAFO, the account similarly emphasised Russian embarrassment and failure. A video Calibre Obscura published in September 2022 of a fleeing Russian tank crashing into a tree set to farcical music went viral, generated much mainstream coverage, and was presented by Zelensky at a press conference celebrating that month’s successful counteroffensive in Kharkiv.

With the Imaginary War nearing over, and the Zionist genocide in Gaza beginning, it was of course necessary to wind down “OSINT” operations entirely, or focus them elsewhere. The silence of Bellingcat, a British and US government-funded validator of NATO narratives, on Israel’s crimes, despite a wealth of photo and video footage attesting to the monstrousness, is palpable, and illuminating.

In December 2023, novelist Lionel Shriver authored a lament for The Spectator, on how she “got caught up” in the proxy conflict’s “story”, which “had a spectacular opening chapter, a classic hero…and as wicked a villain as Shakespeare could have contrived.” However, Kiev’s catastrophic counteroffensive – which saw over 100,000 Ukrainians die to recover 0.25% of lost territory – meant she was now “quietly losing interest in this conflict,” along with many others in Europe and the US:

“This is supposed to be a David and Goliath story. But David and Goliath is a crap story if the giant wins…Predictable, a bit disheartening and not really a story at all, just the way the world works. Besides, a Western audience wants to see the good guy win, both to mete out justice and to enjoy victory by proxy. Ukraine’s anguishing self-defence is not a novel. But it’s not satisfying our fictional appetites.”

Shriver concluded that it was “time to urge the Zelensky government to enter talks to bring this depressing war to its depressing conclusion,” as “dragging out an entrenched stalemate merely racks up a higher body count and destroys more Ukrainian homes and infrastructure to no purpose.” She added, “sitting back and giving Ukrainians just enough weaponry to keep fighting to the last man and woman, only for the country to finally end up where we always knew it would, is not just immoral. It’s murder.”

It is indeed immoral, and murder, to keep the unwinnable, real war Ukraine has been fighting since February 2022 grinding on, as anti-imperialist, anti-war activists and journalists have been intoning every step of the way. That confirming this self-evident fact came at the expense of so many lives, marking it as a criminal tragedy. Unhappily for Shriver and many others, with the total collapse of the frontline impending any day now, and Russia seeking Kiev’s “unconditional surrender”, the “story” may not end with Ukraine electively entering talks.

https://libya360.wordpress.com/2024/04/ ... -unravels/

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At the edge of the abyss
April 23, 22:57



At the edge of the abyss

How many people do you expect to see in the cinema at 10am on a Sunday? And if we add to this the fact that the film is an uncompromising, two-hour documentary written by a war chronicler? At the premiere screening of “At the Edge of the Abyss” by Maxim Fadeev and Sergei Belous, the hall was not just “filled”. People were sitting in the aisle, on the steps. Several years of work on terabytes of material filmed on the battlefield have borne fruit - before us is the most honest war film, a living monument to fallen heroes and a real model for any documentarian for years to come.

Fadeev has been filming the war in Donbass since its very beginning, since 2014 - his first film was about the events in Slavyansk. “When all this movement on the Maidan began, I had already been in Thailand for three months, filming documentaries about diving, rock climbing and travel in general. I left everything and came to Donbass on April 29. I started filming events in Slavyansk. I streamed for 10 hours a day And then, on May 11, the cell tower was broken and the streams stopped. But I shot a video, from which my first film “Slavyansk” was born. Chronicle of War,” the director said in an interview with KP in 2021.

I first became acquainted with the work of Maxim Fadeev in 2022 - I was lucky enough to see his now legendary “Ghosts” on the big screen. It somehow immediately became clear to me that director Fadeev is truly outstanding , and we live at the same time as a true classic of documentary cinema. “Ghosts” was a very intimate and soulful, human film, and at the same time performed at an unattainably high technical level - I had never seen anything like it in the genre of military documentaries. to the “front-line chronicle” familiar to the viewer - there is a clearly defined through-and-through hero, and the drama of life and death. Footage of battles on the screen flowed into the soldier’s life, snow was replaced by sun-drenched “greenery”, the conflict in Donbass at the time of the events of the film was already in its eighth year. Maxim

Fadeev’s new film, of course, is very different from his own “Ghosts” - the scale of events is now completely different, and the chamber film language of the director’s previous film is no longer suitable for it. We can say that “At the Edge of the Abyss” has become many times more chaotic, yes. But the battlefield itself has changed beyond recognition, and a brutal war in dense urban areas requires a different directorial approach. Despite the closeness of the film specifically to “front-line reporting,” Fadeev’s familiar (and iconic) on-the-spot techniques include characters that are “transparent” to the narrative, flashbacks, and manic attention to detail, all the more striking if you know exactly how the film was shot . Maxim was with the “Somali” on their entire journey, going through 4 weeks of storming city blocks with the battalion - the picture was literally born in the crucible of the battles for Mariupol.



“At the Edge of the Abyss” tells about the combat path of the soldiers of the “Somalia” battalion, breaking through from the outskirts of Mariupol to the center of the burning city. A picture of a real Armageddon unfolds before the viewer - dead, wounded, military and civilians. "Are we now children of war?" — a girl asks the camera, playing a homemade “guitar” from a clothes dryer. A tank drives by in the background. Here is a worker looking at a burning car - this Zhiguli was the most expensive thing he could buy in his entire life. Another scene shows a man trying to calm his sobbing wife and telling how they will go to his “small homeland.” Fadeev made a realistic, cruel, scary and at the same time lively film. There is no ridiculous “official” bravado or cannibalism here - as in his “Ghosts”, this picture is about people and for people. To be remembered.

Maxim filmed “Somalia” for several years, and the battle for Mariupol became the plot that connected the disparate episodes into a single canvas. One of the heroes of the film that serves as a guide for the viewer in the chaos of urban battle is “Nazar”, who has been fighting for Novorossiya since 2014. The fighter says that he sees his mother aging before his eyes - he notices this every time he manages to come home for a day or two on vacation. “After everything that Ukraine did in Donbass, I will no longer be able to live under the yellow-blue flag,” says Nazar. Another guide character is, of course, the charismatic commander Roman “Sparrow”, an ultras of the Donetsk Shakhtar, who joined the militia after the tragedy in Odessa. Here is a very young “Philosopher”, for whom the director had to shoot a propaganda video for nomination to the youth council of the Republic. Almost none of the film's characters will live to see its premiere. Vasily “Nazar” will die at the end of April 2022, Roman “Sparrow” - in June 2023. “During ten years of war, I lost a huge number of people,” Fadeev himself states.

I will not enter into discussions about the war here. I don’t consider myself to have the right to do this - I’m not a participant in combat operations, and therefore the idea of ​​pretending to be an armchair Rambo or an expert on all matters of tactics and strategy seems to me some kind of stupid posturing. I saw Mariupol with my own eyes after the moment when the last “Azovstal sidekick” crawled out into the world, raising his hands - in March 2023, when life was already beginning to return to the destroyed city. However, even then what he saw shocked him like nothing had ever happened before. This makes the beginning of the picture even more imprinted in your memory, the houses on the outskirts of the city, the fences with the inscription “children” that you saw with your own eyes. High-rise buildings scarred by shrapnel and completely destroyed, in which people continued to live.

“At the Edge of the Abyss,” as I said above, is an absolutely uncompromising, honest, and therefore very human picture. Only a complete Twitter idiot, who has a complete lack of empathy and two straight convolutions in the entire cranium, can see in Fadeev’s work a “glorification of murder” (or as they say now in the camp of “people with bright faces”?). However, it is probably very easy and simple for such characters to live - it is already written down for them what, where and how they should think and feel.

Maxim Fadeev’s film is an epoch-making film about those who took upon themselves the cross to forever close that same abyss, to destroy the root of evil at the cost of their lives. Each new peaceful day is paid for with the lives of people like “Nazar”, “Sparrow”, “Jaf” - this documentary monument was erected in their memory. Against the backdrop of Fadeev’s “Abyss,” all sorts of petty-bourgeois fuss and entertaining “art” that fills cinemas and television channels dissolve into absolute emptiness. The director told how his previous films were not wanted to be seen on air and at festivals - “the wrong position,” “a toxic topic.” I would like to believe that changing times will erase such “organizers” along with their “festivals” that require the creator to betray himself and adapt to the “correct” agenda.

The picture opens with a fragment from the Gospel of John: “Greater love has no one than this, that someone lay down his life for his friends.” Is there anything we can add to the Gospel? I think no.

Author of the text - @podval_lyrics
Photo - Maxim Fadeev, Realdoc

https://telegra.ph/U-kraya-bezdny-03-06 - zinc

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/9112566.html

Google Translator

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Geopolitics of human trafficking: How Western regime-change operations enable criminal activities

Lucas Leiroz

April 23, 2024

According to a recent investigation, Kiev regime is heading a big international scheme of slave trade.

The slave trade in Ukraine has become one of the most serious problems of our time. Since the 2014 coup d’état, Kiev has been a key player in modern slavery, particularly for human trafficking and sexual exploitation networks. The political and social instability that has affected the country since the Western-led regime change operation is one of the main factors for the growth of such human rights violations.

A recent investigative report published by the Foundation to Battle Injustice showed in details the seriousness of the slave trade in Ukraine. According to the organization, Kiev has become one of the main global hubs in the human trafficking market, with free exploitation and circulation of irregular workers – in addition to the well-known trafficking of women and children in the predatory sex market.

The study points out that more than 300,000 Ukrainians were victims of the slave market between 1991 and 2021. This situation, however, has deteriorated even further since Vladimir Zelensky came to power. It is estimated that since the beginning of Zelensky’s government, more than 550,000 Ukrainians have been enslaved. These numbers are alarming and place Ukraine as one of the main agents of human trafficking in the entire world.

In its report, citing sources familiar with the topic and several insiders, the Foundation exposed how the slave trade in Ukraine is not limited to the exploitation of Ukrainian citizens. Since 2021, two reception centers for refugees from Africa have been operating in Ternopil. These facilities were used not only for receiving migrants but also for selling them on the European black market. An alleged member of the Ukrainian Presidential Cabinet, on condition of anonymity, reported to investigators that the organizer of the Ukrainian human trafficking network is Ruslan Stefanchuk, current chairman of the Verkhovna Rada.

It is said that Stefanchuk is the main beneficiary and coordinator of human trafficking networks in Ukraine, working both in the sale of Ukrainian citizens on the international black market and in the exploitation of foreigners who arrive through migratory flows and are handed over to criminal networks in Europe. Relatives of the Ukrainian parliamentarian also appear to be involved in such activities, as a large network of private companies is legally registered in the name of people close to him, such as his brother, Mykola Stefanchuck, and his wife, Marina Stefanchuk.

Stefanchuk and his relatives’ companies have the function of disguising the slave trade, making it appear to be a legal business. Advertisements are made to “help” people in various ways, such as offering employment or financial assistance. Thus, migrants, refugees and vulnerable Ukrainians are lured into meetings and interviews by supposedly legal and responsible companies, but soon after the meetings their documents are confiscated, and these people are captured and handed over to criminal networks.

“Everything is built to look as legal as possible. Ukrainian women, children and men are invited for interviews at respectable companies in Kiev, Ternopil, Lviv or Ivano-Frankivsk. They are made tempting financial offers and paradisiacal working conditions. Then, under a plausible pretext, their identity cards are confiscated. After that, they can do absolutely anything they want with them,” source told investigators.

This type of situation is not surprising. In Ukraine, several crimes are committed with impunity by high-ranking state officials. Illegal work, sexual exploitation of women and children, military enlistment of children and even organ trafficking have been frequently reported in the country. It is worth remembering the case of Vasily Prozorov, a former Ukrainian secret service agent who emigrated to Russia and has done important work exposing Kiev’s crimes. According to him, there is a criminal network of trafficking and exploitation of Ukrainian children in pedophile schemes in which Western officials are deeply involved.

Prozorov claims that Ukrainian children are sold by the SBU to British sexual predators with assistance from the London secret service. Sexual slavery is the fate of most of the children who mysteriously “disappear” in Ukraine – many of whom are ethnic Russians captured in regions close to the front lines by the so-called “White Angels“, who are Ukrainian agents working for pedophile networks, but disguised as “rescuers”. It is also worth remembering that Prozorov recently suffered an assassination attempt by Ukrainian intelligence service, which shows that his work has worried Kiev.

It is easy to understand why Ukraine has become a hub for international human trafficking. Kiev experienced a regime change in 2014 and since then all Ukrainian citizens have been subjected to a lawless repressive regime. The increase in extremism, terrorism and crimes against human rights are direct consequences of the political and institutional chaos in post-2014 Ukraine. And this is not an exclusive characteristic of Ukraine.

Previously, Libya went through a similar experience, with a Western-led regime change operation being successful and taking the country to the most absolute political and social crisis. Since then, the Libyan territory has been widely recognized by international investigators and observers as the main hub for the slave trade on the African continent. The absence of a strong and effective government in guaranteeing law and order has been a key factor for criminal groups to operate with impunity.

Western intelligence networks cooperate with criminal organizations involved in human trafficking because this is an easy way to generate illegal and untraceable money. As well known, Western intelligence agencies are involved in terrorist activities, political assassinations and financing of color revolutions. These activities cannot be publicly declared as they involve acts of a criminal nature, so obviously Western state agencies cannot use public money in these actions. So, “black cash” is used, coming from illegal sources such as these lucrative and immoral schemes of human trafficking, sexual exploitation and slave trade – in addition to activities such as drug trafficking, irregular arms trade and others. In other words, crimes committed in countries controlled by the Collective West generate funds which Western intelligence is able to use out of the eyes of the public accountability.

It is possible to say that there is a kind of geopolitics of human trafficking, in which Western interventionism plays a vital role in enabling crimes that supply Western intelligence agencies with illegal money. Ukraine and Libya are perhaps the greatest evidence of this.

https://strategic-culture.su/news/2024/ ... ctivities/

[blindpig]

From Ocheretino to Chasov Yar: weapons, personnel and shortcomings
POSTED BY @NSANZO ⋅ 04/25/2024



“More American aid will help Ukraine avoid defeat in its war with Russia. Winning is another matter,” headlines the AP agency this week in an article illustrated with a photograph of Ukrainian soldiers carrying the coffin of a comrade who fell in battle. The image and message contrast with the attempt by the Ukrainian authorities to present the war as a matter of pure mathematics, a war of resources in which Ukraine can only win if the West plays its role and supplies the weapons demanded by kyiv and the delivery with the requested speed. The approval of the new US financing has changed the discourse of Zelensky and his entourage, but the changes have not yet reached the entire press, which continues to observe a complex situation that is not going to be resolved solely with a checkbook and in the form of weapons. Although without influencing it, the cover photograph of the AP article points to the casualties suffered by Ukraine, the best kept data and that neither Kiev nor its partners are going to reveal, but which is high enough to have become part of the narrative of the media, which can no longer blindly accept the official Ukrainian discourse.

In a similar vein, although insisting on “the determination” of the Ukrainian people, there is a report published by The Washington Post that collects the statements of different soldiers and commanders obtained in various areas of the front. “Without 155mm artillery ammunition from the United States, the Ukrainians can only engage the enemy when the Russians get close enough for locally made short-range drones, called FPV (first-person view), to attack like a species.” of replacement artillery,” writes journalist Anna Husarka, adopting as true a common fallacy, the critical lack of artillery. “For half a year we can only respond when there is a force of at least 40 or 50 Russians: We cannot waste our 155 for smaller groups,” says one of the soldiers on the Donbass front. Although, as the article states, drones have partly replaced artillery as a threat, Ukraine has continued to waste its 155s against residential neighborhoods in Donetsk, causing damage to homes and, at times, also absolutely gratuitous civilian deaths.

The shortage was always relative: the loss of American supplies further unbalanced artillery superiority in favor of Russia, but the fact that Ukraine continued to fire on civilian areas in sectors of the front on which it neither attempts to advance nor defends itself from an attack shows that the deficiencies were never critical. Hence, it is not to be expected that the resumption of US supply will cause as radical a change as Zelensky wishes. “The Russians know they can get very close to us, and they also have the REB, an electronic warfare system, that shoots down our drones. We don't have enough REB to do the same with them,” adds another of the soldiers. Russian superiority is not limited to artillery and aviation and that translates into an increase in casualties. “A month ago, of the 14 newly trained soldiers we sent, there were all 200 ,” that is, killed in combat, says the same source.

The difficulties on the front are real and Ukrainian shortcomings are becoming evident in different battle situations. In the Chasov Yar area, Ukraine faces intensive use of aviation, especially powerful guided weapons, against which it has no choice but to try to shoot down the aircraft carrying them. To achieve this, the United States has included, for example, the Stingers, a weapon that it already used extensively against Moscow's aviation in another of its proxy wars, that of Afghanistan. For the moment, although there is talk of some progress, the war in this sector remains fundamentally static.


The importance of Ocheretino, located in height.

More complex is the situation west of Avdeevka, where efforts are being concentrated to advance on a particularly sensitive place for kyiv, which is struggling to avoid the collapse of its group in the Donetsk area. Although the information has revolved in recent days around Ocheretino, an apparently minor town, but located in a privileged position in several axes of that sector of the front, the ease with which Russia is moving in unfavorable terrain must be a concern for Ukraine, since it denotes a weakness that it is not willing to admit. Yesterday, Boris Rozhin, Colonel Cassad , stated that two thirds of Ocheretino were already under Russian control, with a Ukrainian presence in the northern part of the urban settlement and its western outskirts and added that Russia is also consolidating in Novobajmutovka, putting pressure on Solovevo and fighting for the last positions of Novovokalinovo or Berdichi, which is flanked after the Russian advance on Ocheretino.

The analysis of the situation in Ocheretino and its surroundings is shared by Russian and Ukrainian sources, who in many cases hide behind the lack of artillery, but admit the difficulties. Perhaps the most comprehensive report was published yesterday by Rezident , a Ukrainian source although highly critical of Zelensky, in reference to another Ukrainian Telegram channel, Military Analytics . His story is relevant both for the details and for the Ukrainian shortcomings it shows:

Officially, the Ukrainian Armed Forces make very little comment on the situation in Ocheretino, a key defense point for Ukrainian forces north of Avdeevka. The Russians have made a deep advance there and have already captured most of the town. In addition, they are developing an offensive against nearby villages, which poses a threat to the rear and flanks of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

At the same time, unofficial Ukrainian sources (volunteers, military publications) call the withdrawal of one of the brigades from their positions without a prior order as the main reason for the advance. Now they are urgently trying to close the gap at the expense of reserves. But even if this happens, there are no guarantees that the situation will not be repeated in another sector of the front.

This is the real threat of the “thousands of small cuts” tactic used by the Russians: they gradually put pressure on the entire front line, exhausting the Ukrainian forces and then, after finding a weak point (where the reserves did not arrive in time or the unit abandoned the positions, unable to withstand the stress of the battle), they inflict the main blow there. This happened on the flanks of Avdeevka, which led to the loss of the city. It was recently repeated in the Chasiv Yar area, where the Russians were able to quickly approach its outskirts. And the same thing has happened now in Ocheretino.

In this case, as the military themselves admit, the main problem for the Armed Forces is not so much the lack of weapons and ammunition (this problem will be solved at least partially after the unlocking of American aid), but the exhaustion of the troops, as well as the lack of enough recruits to compensate for the losses. And it is still not very clear whether this problem can be solved through the new law on toughening mobilization and how quickly. And whether the Armed Forces of Ukraine will be able to hold the front until then at the expense of available reserves.

The text points to Russian successes based on a clear tactic of testing defenses and then striking in favorable places, an action very far from the idea of ​​the hordes of men sent to die that Ukraine has been alleging about Russia for some time. Nor is the lack of artillery the entire problem, nor is American assistance a magic solution. Although at the moment no media attempts to honestly answer the question of how it is possible that Ukraine has gone from enjoying a strong numerical superiority to lamenting its inferiority after two years of referring to massive Russian casualties compared to its own few, it seems evident that the certainty is beginning to be conveyed to the press that it is not the weapons but the personnel that is failing Ukraine. With more and more people refusing to join the military, this problem cannot be solved simply with Western economic assistance.

https://slavyangrad.es/2024/04/25/de-oc ... carencias/

Google Translator

****

From Cassad's telegram account:

Colonelcassad
About the preparation of the Armed Forces of Ukraine for attacks on Crimea and Sevastopol

Yesterday was remembered for the fact that the alarm was sounded several times in the southern Russian territories, either because of the takeoff of tactical aircraft, or because of the appearance of unidentified objects on air defense systems.

The exact reason remains unclear. But, as a rule, when this happens, it is associated with the launch of decoy missiles (most likely, ADM-160 MALD) . And it was to them that the air defense stations probably responded.

Why is this being done? This gives the enemy the opportunity to evaluate the reaction of our air defense units to targets appearing in the air. The radar stations are put into active operation, and NATO intelligence records this and determines the location.

And all this is confirmed by the high activity of NATO aircraft and drones. In the air were American U-2S , P-8A , two MQ-9A Reapers, as well as a British RC-135V and a French E-3F AWACS aircraft , accompanied by four Rafale fighters .

Their simultaneous appearance in the Black Sea region along with false missile launches does not look like an accident. The British electronic reconnaissance aircraft was approaching 230 km to Sevastopol , and the French AWACS was approaching 190 km to Sochi .

- And today the intensity of flights is not decreasing. Since night, an American RQ-4B drone has been actively operating south of the Crimean Bridge , and an Italian G-550 long-range radar detection aircraft , a rare guest in this area, has been operating over the Black Sea. - NATO satellites are searching and detecting air defense positions throughout the peninsula. The number of sessions has almost doubled compared to the average number of shots. Total noted over the past few days:

Increasing NATO air reconnaissance activity
Launches of decoy missiles to Crimea
High intensity of filming the surface of Crimea

If we add official statements about additional supplies of long-range missiles, including ATACMS and Storm Shadow (not that they didn’t exist yet, it’s just that the green light for their use has now been received) , then we get a complete picture: new attempts to strike mountains.

And this may happen during the May holidays, and even more likely, before the presidential inauguration on May 7. Considering the love of the authorities of the so-called Ukraine and their curators for symbolism, the target once again may be the Crimean Bridge, the attention to which is very high.



**

Colonelcassad
Summary of the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation on the progress of the special military operation (as of April 24, 2024) The main thing:

- Russian air defense destroyed 299 Ukrainian Armed Forces drones, 9 HIMARS and Alder MLRS shells, as well as 6 Hammer guided bombs during the day;

- The “West” group of troops occupied more advantageous positions and repelled one counterattack near Novovodyany;

- Units of the Southern Group of the Russian Armed Forces have improved the position along the front line;

- The Russian Armed Forces group "West" destroyed the HIMARS MLRS installation of the Ukrainian Armed Forces;

- Units of the "Center" group improved their tactical position and repelled seven counterattacks by Ukrainian Armed Forces assault groups;

- The Ukrainian Armed Forces in the zone of responsibility of the Southern Group of Forces lost up to 470 military personnel;

- The Ukrainian Armed Forces lost up to 350 military personnel in the area of ​​responsibility of the Center group;

- The Russian Armed Forces in the area of ​​responsibility of the Southern Group destroyed three field ammunition depots of the Ukrainian Armed Forces;

- The eastern group of the RF Armed Forces occupied more advantageous positions;

- The Ukrainian Armed Forces lost up to 110 military personnel in the area of ​​responsibility of the Eastern Group of Forces;

- Units of the Eastern Group of the Russian Armed Forces repelled a counterattack by assault groups of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the Urozhainy DPR region;

- Units of the Southern Group of the Russian Armed Forces repelled seven counterattacks of the Ukrainian Armed Forces;

-The Dnepr group of troops defeated four Ukrainian brigades in one day.

Operational-tactical aviation, missile forces and artillery from groupings of troops of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation destroyed the P-18 all-round radar station, and also hit a workshop for the production of unmanned aerial vehicles, a fuel storage facility for the Ukrainian Armed Forces, as well as manpower and military equipment in 117 regions.

Air defense systems shot down 299 Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicles, nine US-made HIMARS and Alder MLRS missiles, as well as six French-made Hammer guided aerial bombs.

In total, since the beginning of the special military operation, the following have been destroyed: 592 aircraft, 270 helicopters, 22,932 unmanned aerial vehicles, 509 anti-aircraft missile systems, 15,827 tanks and other armored combat vehicles, 1,271 combat vehicles of multiple launch rocket systems, 9,081 field artillery and mortar guns, as well as 21,274 units of special military vehicles.

***

Colonelcassad



Ukrainian formations again used drones to attack targets in at least five regions of Russia. — Four drones were destroyed

on approach to Voronezh . As a result of the fall of one of the devices, a crater with an area of ​​about one square meter was discovered on the territory of a private household. m, there was also a fire in the local SNT.

- In Lipetsk, a drone fell in an industrial zone, local authorities evacuated nearby houses.

- In the Smolensk region, UAVs attacked fuel and energy complex facilities in the Smolensk and Yartsevo regions : the Smolensk Refinery, where a fire broke out, also came under fire.

- Electronic warfare units and air defense crews also worked in the border regions: three drones were intercepted in the Kursk region , two in the Belgorod region

. As we have already noted , in recent months the enemy has concentrated on attacks on Russian oil refining facilities. And in the near future, such attacks will only intensify in order to provoke an increase in fuel prices, which will also affect the increase in the cost of all goods.

And one of the measures to counteract such raids is the effective organization of facility protection, including a network of radar and optical surveillance posts and mobile groups with anti-aircraft installations and searchlights in the vicinity of oil refineries and other similar facilities.

At the same time, a symmetrical response to so-called enterprises should be implemented. Ukraine, on whose territory similar facilities continue to operate. We also must not forget about the importance of destroying transport infrastructure - in particular, railway and road bridge.

***

Colonelcassad



At a time when Greek authorities are trying their best to prove that they did not transfer anti-aircraft missile systems to Ukrainian forces, several countries have announced new military aid packages.

USA :
ammunition, including 155mm shells for NATO howitzers
missiles for HIMARS (including ATACMS operational-tactical missiles)
equipment and ammunition for air defense
Bradley IFV, Humvee IFV and M113 APC.

Great Britain :
400 vehicles (160 Husky armored vehicles, 162 unnamed MRAPs, 78 all-terrain vehicles)
60 raiding and diving boats and boats
60 drones of unused type
1,600 strike and anti-aircraft missiles (including Storm Shadow cruise missiles)
four million pieces of ammunition.

Denmark
19 F-16 fighters.

Norway
22 F-16 fighters.

Lithuania
n/a number of command and staff armored vehicles M577

So far, in most positions there is no specificity, but a meeting in the Ramstein format will be held in the near future, at which NATO countries will probably announce assistance to the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

https://t.me/s/boris_rozhin

Google Translator

******

They Went To Hunt For Glory...

... to 404 and already have been thinking about boasting how they led the offensive which would defeat those backward Russkies. Well, the problem, of course, was that they still thought that US Army Manuals apply for 404 as well as they did in Gulf War. Boy, did they miscalculate. Some interesting points from Marat on Chasov Yar, which only confirm the point I make that no US general can command anything larger than regiment in SMO. They simply have neither knowledge nor experience.


К осени прошлого года «Хортица», которая на конец 22-го считалась самым крупным войсковым соединением в числе 4-х основных соединений ВСУ (240-260 тысяч человек), только за один год потеряла 150 тысяч. В результате все основные подразделения, я подчеркну, лучшие, что остались у «Хортицы» сейчас, сконцентрированные для обороны Часов Яра — по одному, а большинство по два раза уже полностью прошли переформирование. То есть были один или два раза полностью разбиты. Но давайте посмотрим на них повнимательнее, так как это само по себе очень интересно. На первом месте стоит опорная и наиболее боеспособная 93 бригада «Холодный Яр». По численности почти дивизия. За два года была дважды разбита.

Интересно, что «Холодные» считались наиболее боеспособными, потому что воевали в основном на лучшей трофейной российской технике. Это прежде всего танки Т-72, Т-80 и даже считанные Т-90. А так же лучшее, что было у укропов — Т-64 «Булат». «Холодные» являлись любимцами амеров, и, например, в ходе осенне-летней кампании 22-го года некоторыми подразделениями прямо руководили американские офицеры. Правда, когда началась Артемовская мясорубка быстро сбежали. На втором месте идет 46 аэромобильная (десантная) бригада, подготовленная англичанами в Англии, самая, кстати говоря, непотрепанная — всего один раз была на переформировании. Далее 92 десантно-штурмовая бригада (дважды уничтоженная). Эти вообще смертники. Вроде 110 бригады ВСУ под Авдеевкой. Отличились тем, что устроили резню наших пленных вместе с батальоном «Кракен» в селе Новоселовское под Сватово осенью 22-го. Тогда мученической смертью погибли 16 бойцов Луганского ополчения (ныне той самой 4-й бригады). Им надели на голову пакеты и удушили. Ой, что будет, когда луганцы доберутся до 92-х.


Translation: By the fall of last year, Khortitsa, which at the end of the 2022 was considered the largest military formation among the 4 main formations of the Ukrainian Armed Forces (240-260 thousand people), lost 150 thousand in just one year. As a result, all the main units, I emphasize, the best that remain at Khortytsya now, concentrated for the defense of Chasov Yar - one at a time, and the majority have already been completely reorganized twice. That is, they were completely destroyed once or twice. But let's take a closer look at them, as this in itself is very interesting. In first place is the supporting and most combat-ready 93rd brigade “Kholodny Yar”. Almost a division in numbers. In two years it was destroyed twice. It is interesting that the “Kholodnye” were considered the most combat-ready, because they fought mainly with the best captured Russian equipment. These are primarily T-72, T-80 and even a few T-90 tanks. And also the best thing the Ukrops had - the T-64 Bulat. The “Kholodnye” were the favorites of the Americans, and, for example, during the autumn-summer campaign of 22, some units were directly led by American officers. True, when the Artyomovskaya meat grinder began, they quickly fled. In second place is the 46th airmobile (airborne) brigade, trained by the British in England, which, by the way, is the most unshabby - it was only reformed once. Next is the 92nd Air Assault Brigade (twice destroyed). These are generally suicide troops. Like the 110th brigade of the Ukrainian Armed Forces near Avdeevka. They distinguished themselves by carrying out a massacre of our prisoners together with the Kraken battalion in the village of Novoselovskoye near Svatovo in the fall of the 22nd. Then 16 fighters of the Lugansk militia (now the same 4th brigade) died as martyrs. They put bags over their heads and suffocated them. Oh, what will happen when the Luhansk people reach 92nd.

Oh, we know what's gonna happen and it better be done without any phones around. Sadism towards POWs was "trained" by NATO instructors and this is the only thing they are good at. Recall how US media have been ejaculating in mid 2010s from describing H.R. McMaster who became, for a short while, the National Security Adviser to Trump. What many forgot that at some point there was a description of how McMaster's regiment treated Iraqi Army POWs--inhumanely. Remarkably, the piece was in one of the major US outlets--either New Yorker or NYT, one of those. Now I cannot find it. I tried, maybe you can. But this is the type of the "training", which is based on killing a third rate force which cannot shoot back and is demolished by the way of total air superiority. But McMaster's "story" and PR around his exploits in Iraq are totally inapplicable to the realities of modern war with "peer" or "better than peer", and that is what those American unit commanders learned really fast. Hence, they fled--very little glory in being evaporated by Tornado's salvo or being blown to smithereens by 152-mm shell or 3M14 Kalibr.

Remember a pathetic piece by WSJ in 2017 titled...

The New Cold War Pits a U.S. General Against His Longtime Russian Nemesis. It’s Trump’s national security adviser H.R. McMaster vs. Putin ally Valery Gerasimov

So, yes, they compared (Nemesis, LOL) Chief of the General Staff of Russian Armed Forces to a guy who commanded a... regiment in Iraq. I reacted already then:

Really? No, I really mean, really? How trivial and shallow one has to be when coming up, for starters, with such sappy baloney as "nemesis". Nemesis, if to follow popular Greek Mythology derived definition, is something a person can not overcome. The immediate question is, then, this--in what sense Russia's Chief Of General Staff Army General Valery Gerasimov is a "long-time nemesis" for US National Security Adviser General McMaster? How, in what inflamed fantasy, can Valery Gerasimov, who, throughout his career, commanded both 58th Army and then what would amount to several Army Groups, before becoming Chief Of General Staff, be a nemesis to a man, with all due respect to McMaster, whose "accomplishments" involve such things as, even if viewed briefly from Wiki:
In August 2008, McMaster assumed duties as Director, Concept Development and Experimentation (later renamed Concept Development and Learning), in the Army Capabilities Integration Center (ARCIC) at Fort Monroe, Virginia, part of U.S. Army Training and Doctrine Command. In this position McMaster was involved in preparing doctrine to guide the Army over the next ten to twenty years.
Apart from obvious gross mismatch in rank, command, responsibilities and accomplishments--Gerasimov's level is a level of the Chairman Of The Joint Chiefs Of Staff--one is forced to ask the question: and what are those "military thinking" accomplishments of McMaster per him being a Director, Concept Development and Experimentation? Almost ten years passed from the moment of McMaster's involvement with US doctrine. And what are the results?
It was a grotesque level of arrogance, ignorance and military illiteracy by the whole US military-propaganda establishment. And then they fled--no glory, I guess. But with such "thinkers" as McMaster, we may see yet another glorious US operational "planning" which will kill even more Ukrainians, who US military views merely as a cannon fodder of untermenschen. Hm, where did I see this before? You gotta love internet, it saves so much...

http://smoothiex12.blogspot.com/2024/04 ... glory.html

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Ten-year anniversary of the anti-coup rebellion eastern Ukraine, as Russian forces advance in Donetsk
Originally published: Al Mayadeen on April 23, 2024 by Dmitri Kovalevich (more by Al Mayadeen) | (Posted Apr 24, 2024)

April 2014 was a pivotal month for the people of the Donbass region in what was then still part of Ukraine. It was then that the governing regime was newly installed in Kiev by a coup d’état on February 20/21embarked on military hostilities against the people of the region. The coup overthrew Ukraine’s elected president and legislature. It sparked rebellion in Crimea, Donbass (Lugansk and Donetsk), and in towns and cities in other regions of eastern and southern Ukraine.

The coup installed a pro-Western, anti-Russia government. Police actions by the new regime to suppress opposition to the coup only deepened the rebellions, whose consequences are still felt today.

On April 10, 2014, a group of communists in the city of Lugansk seized the local headquarters of the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU), the national police agency of Ukraine. They issued demands for the release of opponents of the U.S.-supported coup who had been jailed for upholding Ukraine’s shaky constitutional foundation and opposing the coup, whose epicenter was Maidan Square in central Kiev.

Uprisings against the coup government quickly spread throughout southern and eastern Ukraine, including in Crimea, the two Donbass oblasts (provinces) of Lugansk and Donetsk, and, to a lesser degree, in Odessa and other cities and towns.

No one could have imagined in Lugansk in early April 2014 that hostilities could end in full-scale warfare by Kiev with essential political and military backing by the United States and the NATO military alliance it leads. But that is exactly what unfolded. The attempt by Kiev to suppress opposition to the coup in Donbass soon escalated into an eight-year war by Kiev. In early 2022, that war escalated into today’s large-scale conflict with Russia.

Elsewhere in Ukraine, the people of Crimea avoided war by voting on March 16 to secede from the coup Ukraine and join the Russian Federation. The people of Odessa city were not so lucky. On May 2, a day of anti-coup protest in the city ended in tragedy when right-wing paramilitaries who had traveled to the city from elsewhere in Ukraine for the purpose of violent provocations set fire to the large building in the center of the city where protesters had taken refuge from paramilitary violence. More than 45 protesters died.

The hypocrisy of democracy—some are allowed to have it, others not so
On April 10 in Lugansk, hundreds of local residents took up the call of the local Communist Party activists. One of the main arguments for storming the SBU building was the example set by coup fomenters in late 2013 and early 2014 in seizing police stations (and their arsenals of weapons) in western Ukraine, for example in the city of Lviv, the sixth largest city in Ukraine at the time, with a population of some 750,000. The communists in Lugansk argued that opponents of the coup should take similar actions to those of the coup makers months earlier.

The Western powers were watching events very closely. For them, violence and the seizure of weapons by some groups (right-wing paramilitaries) was justified, while for others (anti-coup protesters) it was totally ‘illegal’. This policy of double standards was on full display as the violent assault by Kiev against the population of Donbass began in earnest in April 2014. Locals became all the more convinced that all the talk coming from Western leaders and institutions about ‘equality’ and ‘democracy’ for Ukraine was nothing more than empty words.

Goal was autonomy; the accusations of ‘separatism’ were false
As rebellion quickly grew in Donbass, far-right paramilitary formations which were already formed in the west of the country to carry out the coup, or which rapidly developed following it, threatened violent, armed actions to suppress the developing protests in Kharkiv, Donetsk, Lugansk, and Zaporizhzhya oblasts and in other locations in the south and east. But the paramilitaries were only partly ‘successful’ (for example, one month later in Odessa).

In Lugansk and Donetsk cities, the local police offered little or no resistance to the anti-coup rebellions. This was parallel to how police in the western regions of Ukraine had largely stood by as the coming coup gained momentum in late 2013. As it turned out, much of the existing police and army personnel in Lugansk and Donetsk crossed over to the side of anti-coup protests, bringing their weapons with them. This was a major blow to Kiev and the West. Additionally, the soldiers of the Ukraine army as a whole were proving to be reluctant to follow orders to fire on anti-coup protesters. The paramilitaries responded to this by forming their own, military battalions, while the coup regime in Kiev embarked on a transformation of army personnel as a whole. In the coming years, the paramilitary formations would receive official status as autonomous constituents of the army and national police.

The BBC’ s Ukraine service reported on the seizure of the SBU headquarters in Lugansk on April 10, 2014, writing,

The police did not interfere with the takeover and left the building to the applause of pro-Russian [sic] activists who had gathered in the square. The crowd chanted ‘Russia’ and ‘referendum’.

The BBC report went on to cite the broadcast of a leader of the anti-coup protests in Lugansk, Vyacheslav Petrov, who appealed to the population. “I ask you not to panic. Everything will be fine. We are preparing for a referendum, which will take place on May 11. For that, everyone must think and make a choice.” The BBC continued,

The demands [of the anti-coup protest in Lugnsk] included an amnesty for all political prisoners, a referendum [on autonomy], the abolition of price and tariff increases, and giving the Russian language an official status of state language.1

Pro-Russian or anti-coup?
Anti-coup protesters in Donbass wanted a referendum to decide the future of the territory. They were inspired by the events taking place in Crimea. There, the government of the Autonomous Republic of Crimea (ARC) responded promptly to the threats by Ukraine authorities and paramilitaries to invade the territory and suppress opposition to the coup. With the cooperation of Russian leaders in Moscow and Russian armed forces long established in Crimea by a 1997 ‘treaty of friendship’ (Wikipedia) between Russia and Ukraine, the ARC government held a referendum on March 16, 2014, on the future status of the territory. An overwhelming majority voted to secede from Ukraine and join the Russian Federation. Polling showed that even a majority of ethnic Ukrainians residing in the peninsula voted in favor.

Thus ended Ukraine’s unpopular and unconstitutional governance of Crimea, ‘bestowed’ upon Ukraine by the leaders of the Soviet Union (USSR) in 1954, albeit with no vote offered to the local population. Crimea was the only region of Ukraine to have a regional, autonomous government. This meant that the very strong anti-coup sentiment in early 2014 had an immediate solution in the form of a referendum organized by the ARC, which was a fully constitutional entity of Ukraine.

Unfortunately, no such quick and democratic option was available to the other anti-coup regions of Ukraine, notably in Donbass. That’s because these regions lacked any strong forms of local or regional government that could step into the breach once the elected and constitutional government in Kiev was overthrown. It was also because the existing political parties in the anti-coup regions, as in the rest of Ukraine, largely represented only the economic elites.2

Separatism or political autonomy?
Western governments and media responded to the anti-coup protests in central and eastern Ukraine with epithets, calling them ‘separatist’. This was utterly false. The republics of Lugansk and Donetsk are, indeed, today constituents of the Russian Federation. The reason for this is the obstinance of Ukraine’s coup leaders. Following its military defeat in Donbass in early 2015, the Kiev regime signed the ‘Minsk 2’ peace agreement of February 12, 2015 (text here). It contained sweeping autonomy measures for Lugansk and Donetsk. The UN Security Council endorsed the agreement unanimously a short five days later. But as subsequent events proved, Kiev and its foreign backers, notably France and Germany who, like Russia, co-signed Minsk 2 as ‘guarantors’. But unlike Russia, the two EU powers never intended to implement it. As subsequent revelations showed, Kiev and its EU ‘co-signers’ never intended to implement Minsk 2; they signed it in order to ‘buy time’ for Ukraine’s army and paramilitaries to regroup and re-arm.

The claim that the ‘pro-autonomy movement’ in Donbass, to give it its proper name, was ‘pro-Russian’ was another of the Ukrainian and Western epithets. Of course, there was widespread pro-Russian sentiment in Donbass. Historically, the region had always been Russian in its ethnic composition. It always had positive economic relations with the Russian Federation and the Russian Soviet Republic before that. Where was the crime in that? But for the rulers of Ukraine and the West, this was, indeed, a ‘crime’ because they were embarked on a course to weaken Russia and to displace it entirely from Donbass and other regions of Ukraine. They wanted Ukraine to totally uproot its economic relations with Russia and become an economic subordinate to the EU and the United States.

Battle for Chasov Yar
After ten years, the territory of Lugansk is fully under the control of the Lugansk People’s Republic and it is a constituent of the Russian Federation. Next door in Donetsk, a battle is taking place in and around the town of Chasov Yar, app. 100 kilometers north of Donetsk city. This follows the capture by Russian forces of the city of Avdeevka several weeks ago, barely 20 km north of Donetsk, and the capture of the larger city of Artemivsk (called ‘Bakhmut’ in Ukraine, also app. 100 km north of Donetsk) in May 2023.

The tactics being used by the Russian Armed Forces at Chasov Yar (pre-war population 12,000) are similar to those at Avdeevka (barely 20 km north of Donetsk) and Artemivsk. Ukrainian troop positions are hit with heavy aerial bombs that destroy underground fortifications. Assault groups then surround the city from three sides, leaving only one way out: retreat westward toward Ukraine.

The ‘Kholodnyi Yar’ telegram channel of the 93rd Brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine is circulating a video in which a resident of Chasov Yar says he is waiting hopefully for the Russians to come.

He says that he is waiting for Russia and that he has relatives who live there. He says he cannot leave the town because our soldiers shoot all those wanting to cross over to territory held by the Russians.

The liberation of Chasov Yar by the Russian army may become a turning point in the Russian Special Military Operation (SMO) overall. It certainly opens highly unpredictable scenarios in the entire conflict. Russian military correspondent Alexander Sladkov believes that from Chasov Yar, the Russian offensive will advance in a straight line to the major industrial cities of Kramatorsk, a key railway junction 45 kilometers further east with a pre-war population of 160,000, and nearby Sloviansk. “Kramatorsk is the next city of Donbass that we will liberate,” he predicts.

Forcing Ukrainians to fight for NATO
In this context, it is becoming increasingly difficult for the Kiev regime to conduct its forced military conscription. The most common practice by Ukrainian men of military age 3 to avoid military recruiters is to hide in their homes or in ruins and wait for a chance to surrender to Russian forces. The Strana online news outlet in Ukraine published a report on April 2 by an officer of the AFU under the nickname ‘Night Stalker’ describing common methods used by the Ukraine army to pressure its soldiers who are reluctant to fight (and quite possibly die). It wrote,

How to motivate a recruit to fight who would otherwise choose to lie down in the trench on his belly and wait to surrender? The officer replied that ‘a conversation is enough for some. For others, a beating by the company officer or shooting over the soldier’s head may be needed.

The officer noted that there are also harsher methods of influence, but the report did not elaborate.

As more and more AFU soldiers are forcibly conscripted (abducted) from their homes or from streets or shops, the number of ‘refuseniks’—soldiers who refuse to go into combat—is growing in Ukrainian units. As a rule, refuseniks are arrested and then held in cramped, damp cages. The Ukrainian Telegram channel ‘Legitimny’ writes that according to its sources, rising numbers of Ukrainian soldiers are refusing to fight because that “no one wants to fight for the governing regime in Kiev and its leaders since it treats its people as slaves.”

In early April, the German state news outlet Deutsche Welle published a video report from Luzanivka in the Cherkasy region (central Ukraine), explaining there are no men left of military service age in the village. “If someone happens to die, there is no one left here to dig their grave,” says village council chairman Serhiy Nikolaenko. DW reports that about 50 men have been conscripted from the village of 400 people.

Strana cites Deutsche Welle in reporting from the village of Valentina. A resident explains, “In our small village, there are already so many missing and dead. Imagine for the whole of Ukraine!” The resident says both of his sons have been conscripted into the army.

Despite all this, President Volodymyr Zelensky and his government continue to try and ‘sell’ to Western media and politicians that a new ‘counteroffensive’ by the AFU may be launched. This is at a time when the human resources to replace the soldiers being lost to death, injury, or desertion are all but exhausted. “Yes, we have a plan for a counteroffensive. We will definitely win; we have no other alternative. But I can’t promise it and I can’t name a date,” Zelensky stressed in an interview with Germany’s BILD daily newspaper on April 9.

Oleksandr Dubinsky, a former MP from Zelensky’s Servant of the People party, adds that as long as the Ukrainian army is in retreat, it will be difficult to negotiate financial aid. In other words, the Ukraine regime plans to throw yet more Ukrainians into the slaughter so that the Ukrainian elite can maintain its economic ties with the West and continue to receive funding from it.

How neoliberalism has undermined Western hegemony
Another reason for the impossibility of an AFU ‘counteroffensive’ is the shortage of ammunition, which neither the West nor Ukraine are able to replenish. In Ukraine and the West, deindustrialization processes have undermined the ability to quickly organize production facilities.

Russian political scientist Malek Dudakov writes that it is extremely difficult for European Union countries to now boost their production of armaments. The EU countries today buy 80 percent of their armaments from outside their borders; 60 percent of that comes from the United States. “Euro bureaucrats miraculously want to reduce dependence on armaments imports to 50 percent by 2030. This is in the context of a severe crisis already happening in the European economy, due largely to deindustrialization. Even the production of shells faces problems because of the shortages of nitrocellulose (also known as ‘guncotton’) and other cotton products purchased from China,” he writes.

In early April, police searches were conducted in Ukraine and Poland amidst investigations by the Ukraine Defense Ministry of overpriced arms purchases. In 2022, the Ukrainian Defense Ministry signed several contracts with the Polish-registered firm Alfa for the supply of ammunition worth tens of millions of euros. Despite the fact that the firm failed to fulfill the terms of the first several contracts, the Ministry continued to cooperate with it. As of the beginning of 2023, Alfa owed the Defense Ministry more than 3.5 billion hryvnias (US$89 million) for arms purchases never received.

In late February, Zelensky claimed that global prices for artillery shells have increased five times (500%) since the start of the war with the Russian Federation. “Because of the war in Ukraine, even an ordinary artillery shell which cost $1500 at the beginning of the war can cost $4000 to $8000 today. So much for the war. For some it is a war, while for others it is just big business”, he said.

The Wall Street Journal reported on April 10 that U.S. drones produced in California’s Silicon Valley have not performed well in Ukraine.

U.S.-made UAVs [unmanned aerial vehicles] tend to be expensive, faulty and complicated to repair, say drone company executives, Ukrainians on the front lines, Ukrainian government officials, and some former U.S. military officials.

In general, the entire Western world is oriented to produce small numbers of expensive products, with high involvement of private middlemen. This model turns out to be highly ineffective in modern military conflicts, which require cheap and quick production on a mass scale. The only two ways, then, for Western firms to compete is to exploit the countries of the Global South for cheap production or to lower their own production standards.

Russia, meanwhile, has been undergoing processes of de-privatization, that is the return of manufacturing by private enterprises to state ownership. This helps to eliminate middlemen and make production cheaper. Since 2020, the number of cases in which the Russian Prosecutor General’s Office has challenged the legalities of privatizations during the privatization wave of the 1990s has grown eight times, according to the Russian TV channel RTVI.

The chief of Sweden’s SAAB arms producer, Micael Johansson, recently told the Financial Times that shortages of nitrocellulose were an example of why companies producing armaments need to build new supply chains in today’s “multipolar world” where “not only the Western,’ rules-based order’ will be present”. He added:

We have to think about like-minded countries who we can trust and with whom we can work with in the long term.

Reading between the lines, the SAAB official’s words mean increased pressure by Western countries on the Global South to locate more and more production there on the cheap. Effectively, it means a continuation of colonialist practices against smaller and less developed countries.

It has been fashionable in recent years for capitalist ideologues and commentators in the imperialist countries to criticize and even condemn the ‘offshoring’ of their manufacturing to China and other countries. But the drive to maximize profits takes precedence, and so offshoring remains an attractive practice. The capitalist system of production serves private interests, not public needs. Thus it has always been and will always remain.

Notes:
1. In post-Soviet Ukraine, there was and remains only one official language: Ukrainian. This was even true in Crimea where ethnic Ukrainians composed only some 15% of the population. In today’s Crimea (Russian Federation), there are three official languages: Russian, Crimean Tatar, and Ukrainian.
2. Crimea’s autonomous status dates back to the Russian Revolution of 1917, which implemented sweeping forms of political self-determination for the many nationalities that comprised the pre-Revolution Russian Empire. This was and remains the origin of independent Ukraine. ‘Soviet’ Ukraine was formed during the harsh years of civil war from 1918 to 1920. It went on to become a founding constituent of the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics in 1922. Officials of Soviet Ukraine led a secession from the USSR in 1990/1991. The country had already won its independence 70 years earlier.
3. Military registration is obligatory in Ukraine for all men between the ages of 18 and 65. The age of military service (conscription) is 25 to 60 (recently reduced from 27).

https://mronline.org/2024/04/24/ten-yea ... n-donetsk/

***

The Nazi will monitor human rights
April 24, 23:29



Paul Massaro has been appointed HR Director of the Helsinki Commission.
The US Helsinki Commission monitors human rights and international cooperation in 57 countries.
Pictured is Paul Massaro, the new Director of Human Rights.

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/9115077.html

Exhibition of trophies on Poklonnaya Hill
April 25, 11:59



In general, almost all the captured equipment (so far the boats are just not visible) from the Patriot Park was transported for display at the trophy exhibition on Poklonnaya Gora + new trophies were added to it. The result is the largest exhibition of captured armored vehicles since the beginning of the Northern Military District. The event opens on May 1st, so I recommend visiting, there is something to see, both old and new.
Perhaps they will still have time to put the Leopard in order and also drive it to Poklonnaya Gora.
For a complete set, there are not enough Abrams, Challenger and Stryker.









https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/9115891.html

(Reminds me of the collection of largely Nazi WWII trophies at Edgewood Arsenal back home.)

Google Translator

***

Doctor Death: Ukraine's Nazi-loving Health Privatizer

Neonazis=neoliberals

EVENTS IN UKRAINE
APR 25, 2024

Today we will be having a look at Ulyana Suprun, American-born Ukrainian minister of health from 2016-2019. She is pictured on the right, with the gentleman on the left being Serhii Sternenko. According to Suprun, ‘we can all become like Serhii’. Soon we will find out what she meant by that. In short, the reader will be treated to yet another example of the tight alliance between Ukrainian neoliberals and neonazis.



Suprun has quite an interesting background. According to strana.ua journalist Aleksei Romanov:

This U.S. citizen appeared in Ukraine at the end of 2013, right at the start of the coup. Few know that she is the daughter of George Harry Yurkiv, a shareholder and vice-president of "North American Controls."

This is a major Pentagon contractor that manufactures hydraulic and control components for M1 Abrams tanks, armored personnel carriers, and other combat vehicles.

Suprun’s grandmother was also a ‘member of the Ukrainian liberation movement of the 1930s and 1940s’, from which one can draw the obvious conclusions. While she herself grew up in Detroit, her husband Marko grew up in Canada. After taking part in Maidan in 2013, she became head of humanitarian initiatives of the Global Congress of Ukrainians.

She only received Ukrainian citizenship in 2015, given personally by Poroshenko. It was given on the basis that she was a ‘person, regarding whom the granting of citizenship is a matter of national interest.’ Her government career began immediately after, eventually becoming minister of health in 2016 on Poroshenko’s recommendation.

On February 5 2019, the Kiev regional administrative court demanded that the state migration service check whether Suprun still had US сitizenship. A Ukrainian politician had brought the case to the court, noting that occupying a ministerial post as a dual citizen is illegal (which doesn’t stop people of course, as the cases of Natalie Jaresko and Igor Kolomoisky showed). Given that Suprun moved back to the USA in 2020, it seems likely that she was indeed a dual citizen all that time. Not that one needs to guess, given her political career.


Marko and Ulyana receiving citizenship from Poroshenko (right).

The medical front
Of her various struggles, she was of course most well known for her medical reforms. It was for this reason that she received the epithet ‘Doctor Death’ in Ukraine. According to a March 2020 poll by the Ukrainian ‘Reiting’, only 18% of Ukrainians were pleased with Suprun’s medical reforms. Only 19% considered Suprun’s work in the ministry of health to have been positive. 62% considered her influence to have been negative.

According to Focus.ua, Suprun’s ‘British-style’ reform meant that state funds for medicine went to insurance companies who paid medical institutions for parients served. As a result, smaller medical institutions, which Ukraine is filled with, went bankrupt. There are constant problems with missing salaries for Ukraine’s medical staff. The number of medical personnel is repeatedly slashed. This leaves many people in rural areas or smaller towns without any medical assistance at all. It also became more difficult to acquire medicine.

Because of these ‘rationalizations’, there was an epidemic of closures of psychiatric institutions in 2020. It became even more normal to see severely mentally ill people wandering the streets. Another result was that by the end of the Poroshenko government in 2019, Ukraine had 10 thousnad hospital beds with oxygen, which hardly served it well during covid.





While having kind words for her during his election campaign, once he got into power Zelensky was clear that he didn’t approve of her reforms He even referred to the fact that she is often called ‘Doctor Death’. Ruslan Stefanchuk, key member of Zelensky’s command, said that ‘people haven’t gotten the results that people in other countries got after implementing the same unpopular reforms’. She was sacked in September 2019. After leaving her post, she dedicated herself to ‘attacking soviet myths’ about medicine on Facebook, as well as arguing in favour of legalizing cannabis.


A protest against Suprun’s medical reforms. ‘NO destruction of emergency aid’ ‘Mrs Suprun! You do not live in America! Live according to our Ukrainian realities!’

Suprun’s friends

Suprun was never just a privatizer of medicine. Ukraine’s liberals and nationalists have always been more than allies - but really two departments of the same organization.

One of her most well-known friends is Serhiy Sternenko. Nowadays, he, alongside Sorosite luminary Serhiy Pritula, seem poised to be the atlanticist candidates for Ukraine’s next elections, if they will ever take place. Sternenko is someone I plan to write about more in the future. Even some of Ukraine’s liberal media like Hromadske wrote a three part take down of Sternenko and his drug-dealing extortion rackets.

In any case, for the purpose of this article, we will be having a look at Suprun’s support of Sternenko during his battle with the law. He was having troubles with the law - though never actually imprisoned for it - because of a murder he committed on camera.

According to Sternenko’s supporters, there had been three attempts on his life in Odessa in the time leading up to May 2018, when two unarmed men approached Sternenko. The young patriot decided to take the offensive, seriously wounding one of them and running after the other, stabbing him to death on the ground. This was all live streamed on Facebook by Sternenko’s partner, who became Suprun’s office assistant in July 2020.

Absurdly, Sternenko was ruled the victim by a May 2020 ruling, because his hand was wounded (by his own knife!). The murdered man was ruled the aggressor, which, as the prosecution lawyer told strana.ua, is itself illegal. In the two years prior to this, protection by the Poroshenko government meant that Sternenko didn’t spend a day in jail for a murder he live streamed. When he came to the SBU court in May 2020 to see if he would receive a formal accusation, he was accompanied by over 100 angry ‘activists’. Ulyana Suprun also came along to support the young patriot at the SBU building in June 2020.


Suprun is wearing the blue mask.

According to Suprun, Sternenko is a ‘model for the new Ukrainian’. She wrote the following on facebook in 2020, also blaming Interior Minister Arsen Avakov and Zelensky for the crackdown on freedom fighters like Sternenko:

Sergiy Sternenko for me is an example of that generation of Ukrainians who will be able to put everything in its place. These people were born and raised in an independent Ukraine. They, like no others, have a great demand for justice, security, and the real effectiveness of the state. And it is very important not to let them be intimidated, to crush their ability to speak the truth, to turn them into cynics.

When such people in their hometowns or villages start calling things by their real names and actively prevent theft by the likes of [Mayor of Odessa] Trukhanov, they face attacks, assassination attempts, and persecution by police and prosecutors, who often serve not the citizens, but local feudal lords.

By the way, regarding Avakov - the subterranean aspect of this whole story is the struggle between what one might call the NGO Right (Sternenko, supported by Suprun) and the Statist Right (Azov, supported by Avakov). Sternenko has old beef with Azov. The latter point out how he has never gone to the frontline but bases his whole career off fundraising for the army. Sternenko is also accused of being supported by ‘woke Sorosites’, which, to be fair, is true. Grand Fuhrer of Azov, Andrii Biletsky, even beat up some Azovites for their support of Sternenko in 2020. I also suspect that their conflict has at least some of its basis in conflict over control of drug trafficking. Both Azov and Sternenko have been accused of plenty of that.

The pro-Sternenko protests were quite funny. I remember how at the time every self-respecting hipster in Kiev took up Sternenko’s defense. All the vegan anarchists were in love. When I asked some of them I knew at the time why they supported him, they gave some vague formulations. The protests themselves, which famously included an attack on the president’s office in March 2021 which cost 2 million hryvnias to repair, also included liberal NGO activists chanting slogans about the need for anti-corruption court reforms - which, not coincidentally, is the main demand of the IMF.


The aftermath of the March 2021 ‘pogrom on the President’s office’. At this point, Sternenko was being charged with kidnapping, torturing and extorting money from an Odessan politician in 2015.
The protests in June 2020 in support of Sternenko were quite the show. There was a wide range of Poroshenkite era rightwingers there, from Yanina Sokolova to Yaroslav Yurchishin, who brought up sternenko’s glorious history in the maidan self-defense.


Aleksei Tsimbalyuk also came. He had been taken to court not long before for beating up a strana journalist. He also threw a firecracker into a court deliberating on Sternenko on June 12 2020


One of Sternenko’s adoring fans. Credit to strana.ua


More scenes from the June protest in support of Sternenko that Suprun attended.


Sternenko speaking (front left), gazed upon by his flock.

Suprun never missed a protest in support of the rightwing neoliberals she so loved. On 4 November 2019, there was a protest in honur of the year-old acid killing of Ekaterina Gandzyuk, anti-corruption activist and acting mayor of Kherson. This is a cause de celebre of the anti-Avakov liberal nationalists, with ‘who killed Katya Gandzyuk’ graffiti covering Kiev to this day. Sternenko, Suprun, leader of the ‘Center for the Prevention of Corruption’ Vitaly Shabunin (I have written about his conflict with Zelensky here), and Poroshenkite former minister of justice Yury Lutsenko all appearing. Sternenko and Suprun also made a joint appearance at the courthouse where the Poroshenko-era minister of infrastructure was being judged for corruption.

(Much more at link. Very interesting.)

https://eventsinukraine.substack.com/p/ ... azi-loving

Those Nazis and their tats...gonna make filtration a whole lot easier. Take the tat and take the rap.

[blindpig]

From Ocheretino to Chasov Yar: weapons, personnel and shortcomings
POSTED BY @NSANZO ⋅ 04/25/2024



“More American aid will help Ukraine avoid defeat in its war with Russia. Winning is another matter,” headlines the AP agency this week in an article illustrated with a photograph of Ukrainian soldiers carrying the coffin of a comrade who fell in battle. The image and message contrast with the attempt by the Ukrainian authorities to present the war as a matter of pure mathematics, a war of resources in which Ukraine can only win if the West plays its role and supplies the weapons demanded by kyiv and the delivery with the requested speed. The approval of the new US financing has changed the discourse of Zelensky and his entourage, but the changes have not yet reached the entire press, which continues to observe a complex situation that is not going to be resolved solely with a checkbook and in the form of weapons. Although without influencing it, the cover photograph of the AP article points to the casualties suffered by Ukraine, the best kept data and that neither Kiev nor its partners are going to reveal, but which is high enough to have become part of the narrative of the media, which can no longer blindly accept the official Ukrainian discourse.

In a similar vein, although insisting on “the determination” of the Ukrainian people, there is a report published by The Washington Post that collects the statements of different soldiers and commanders obtained in various areas of the front. “Without 155mm artillery ammunition from the United States, the Ukrainians can only engage the enemy when the Russians get close enough for locally made short-range drones, called FPV (first-person view), to attack like a species.” of replacement artillery,” writes journalist Anna Husarka, adopting as true a common fallacy, the critical lack of artillery. “For half a year we can only respond when there is a force of at least 40 or 50 Russians: We cannot waste our 155 for smaller groups,” says one of the soldiers on the Donbass front. Although, as the article states, drones have partly replaced artillery as a threat, Ukraine has continued to waste its 155s against residential neighborhoods in Donetsk, causing damage to homes and, at times, also absolutely gratuitous civilian deaths.

The shortage was always relative: the loss of American supplies further unbalanced artillery superiority in favor of Russia, but the fact that Ukraine continued to fire on civilian areas in sectors of the front on which it neither attempts to advance nor defends itself from an attack shows that the deficiencies were never critical. Hence, it is not to be expected that the resumption of US supply will cause as radical a change as Zelensky wishes. “The Russians know they can get very close to us, and they also have the REB, an electronic warfare system, that shoots down our drones. We don't have enough REB to do the same with them,” adds another of the soldiers. Russian superiority is not limited to artillery and aviation and that translates into an increase in casualties. “A month ago, of the 14 newly trained soldiers we sent, there were all 200 ,” that is, killed in combat, says the same source.

The difficulties on the front are real and Ukrainian shortcomings are becoming evident in different battle situations. In the Chasov Yar area, Ukraine faces intensive use of aviation, especially powerful guided weapons, against which it has no choice but to try to shoot down the aircraft carrying them. To achieve this, the United States has included, for example, the Stingers, a weapon that it already used extensively against Moscow's aviation in another of its proxy wars, that of Afghanistan. For the moment, although there is talk of some progress, the war in this sector remains fundamentally static.


The importance of Ocheretino, located in height.

More complex is the situation west of Avdeevka, where efforts are being concentrated to advance on a particularly sensitive place for kyiv, which is struggling to avoid the collapse of its group in the Donetsk area. Although the information has revolved in recent days around Ocheretino, an apparently minor town, but located in a privileged position in several axes of that sector of the front, the ease with which Russia is moving in unfavorable terrain must be a concern for Ukraine, since it denotes a weakness that it is not willing to admit. Yesterday, Boris Rozhin, Colonel Cassad , stated that two thirds of Ocheretino were already under Russian control, with a Ukrainian presence in the northern part of the urban settlement and its western outskirts and added that Russia is also consolidating in Novobajmutovka, putting pressure on Solovevo and fighting for the last positions of Novovokalinovo or Berdichi, which is flanked after the Russian advance on Ocheretino.

The analysis of the situation in Ocheretino and its surroundings is shared by Russian and Ukrainian sources, who in many cases hide behind the lack of artillery, but admit the difficulties. Perhaps the most comprehensive report was published yesterday by Rezident , a Ukrainian source although highly critical of Zelensky, in reference to another Ukrainian Telegram channel, Military Analytics . His story is relevant both for the details and for the Ukrainian shortcomings it shows:

Officially, the Ukrainian Armed Forces make very little comment on the situation in Ocheretino, a key defense point for Ukrainian forces north of Avdeevka. The Russians have made a deep advance there and have already captured most of the town. In addition, they are developing an offensive against nearby villages, which poses a threat to the rear and flanks of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

At the same time, unofficial Ukrainian sources (volunteers, military publications) call the withdrawal of one of the brigades from their positions without a prior order as the main reason for the advance. Now they are urgently trying to close the gap at the expense of reserves. But even if this happens, there are no guarantees that the situation will not be repeated in another sector of the front.

This is the real threat of the “thousands of small cuts” tactic used by the Russians: they gradually put pressure on the entire front line, exhausting the Ukrainian forces and then, after finding a weak point (where the reserves did not arrive in time or the unit abandoned the positions, unable to withstand the stress of the battle), they inflict the main blow there. This happened on the flanks of Avdeevka, which led to the loss of the city. It was recently repeated in the Chasiv Yar area, where the Russians were able to quickly approach its outskirts. And the same thing has happened now in Ocheretino.

In this case, as the military themselves admit, the main problem for the Armed Forces is not so much the lack of weapons and ammunition (this problem will be solved at least partially after the unlocking of American aid), but the exhaustion of the troops, as well as the lack of enough recruits to compensate for the losses. And it is still not very clear whether this problem can be solved through the new law on toughening mobilization and how quickly. And whether the Armed Forces of Ukraine will be able to hold the front until then at the expense of available reserves.

The text points to Russian successes based on a clear tactic of testing defenses and then striking in favorable places, an action very far from the idea of ​​the hordes of men sent to die that Ukraine has been alleging about Russia for some time. Nor is the lack of artillery the entire problem, nor is American assistance a magic solution. Although at the moment no media attempts to honestly answer the question of how it is possible that Ukraine has gone from enjoying a strong numerical superiority to lamenting its inferiority after two years of referring to massive Russian casualties compared to its own few, it seems evident that the certainty is beginning to be conveyed to the press that it is not the weapons but the personnel that is failing Ukraine. With more and more people refusing to join the military, this problem cannot be solved simply with Western economic assistance.

https://slavyangrad.es/2024/04/25/de-oc ... carencias/

Google Translator

****

From Cassad's telegram account:

Colonelcassad
About the preparation of the Armed Forces of Ukraine for attacks on Crimea and Sevastopol

Yesterday was remembered for the fact that the alarm was sounded several times in the southern Russian territories, either because of the takeoff of tactical aircraft, or because of the appearance of unidentified objects on air defense systems.

The exact reason remains unclear. But, as a rule, when this happens, it is associated with the launch of decoy missiles (most likely, ADM-160 MALD) . And it was to them that the air defense stations probably responded.

Why is this being done? This gives the enemy the opportunity to evaluate the reaction of our air defense units to targets appearing in the air. The radar stations are put into active operation, and NATO intelligence records this and determines the location.

And all this is confirmed by the high activity of NATO aircraft and drones. In the air were American U-2S , P-8A , two MQ-9A Reapers, as well as a British RC-135V and a French E-3F AWACS aircraft , accompanied by four Rafale fighters .

Their simultaneous appearance in the Black Sea region along with false missile launches does not look like an accident. The British electronic reconnaissance aircraft was approaching 230 km to Sevastopol , and the French AWACS was approaching 190 km to Sochi .

- And today the intensity of flights is not decreasing. Since night, an American RQ-4B drone has been actively operating south of the Crimean Bridge , and an Italian G-550 long-range radar detection aircraft , a rare guest in this area, has been operating over the Black Sea. - NATO satellites are searching and detecting air defense positions throughout the peninsula. The number of sessions has almost doubled compared to the average number of shots. Total noted over the past few days:

Increasing NATO air reconnaissance activity
Launches of decoy missiles to Crimea
High intensity of filming the surface of Crimea

If we add official statements about additional supplies of long-range missiles, including ATACMS and Storm Shadow (not that they didn’t exist yet, it’s just that the green light for their use has now been received) , then we get a complete picture: new attempts to strike mountains.

And this may happen during the May holidays, and even more likely, before the presidential inauguration on May 7. Considering the love of the authorities of the so-called Ukraine and their curators for symbolism, the target once again may be the Crimean Bridge, the attention to which is very high.



**

Colonelcassad
Summary of the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation on the progress of the special military operation (as of April 24, 2024) The main thing:

- Russian air defense destroyed 299 Ukrainian Armed Forces drones, 9 HIMARS and Alder MLRS shells, as well as 6 Hammer guided bombs during the day;

- The “West” group of troops occupied more advantageous positions and repelled one counterattack near Novovodyany;

- Units of the Southern Group of the Russian Armed Forces have improved the position along the front line;

- The Russian Armed Forces group "West" destroyed the HIMARS MLRS installation of the Ukrainian Armed Forces;

- Units of the "Center" group improved their tactical position and repelled seven counterattacks by Ukrainian Armed Forces assault groups;

- The Ukrainian Armed Forces in the zone of responsibility of the Southern Group of Forces lost up to 470 military personnel;

- The Ukrainian Armed Forces lost up to 350 military personnel in the area of ​​responsibility of the Center group;

- The Russian Armed Forces in the area of ​​responsibility of the Southern Group destroyed three field ammunition depots of the Ukrainian Armed Forces;

- The eastern group of the RF Armed Forces occupied more advantageous positions;

- The Ukrainian Armed Forces lost up to 110 military personnel in the area of ​​responsibility of the Eastern Group of Forces;

- Units of the Eastern Group of the Russian Armed Forces repelled a counterattack by assault groups of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the Urozhainy DPR region;

- Units of the Southern Group of the Russian Armed Forces repelled seven counterattacks of the Ukrainian Armed Forces;

-The Dnepr group of troops defeated four Ukrainian brigades in one day.

Operational-tactical aviation, missile forces and artillery from groupings of troops of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation destroyed the P-18 all-round radar station, and also hit a workshop for the production of unmanned aerial vehicles, a fuel storage facility for the Ukrainian Armed Forces, as well as manpower and military equipment in 117 regions.

Air defense systems shot down 299 Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicles, nine US-made HIMARS and Alder MLRS missiles, as well as six French-made Hammer guided aerial bombs.

In total, since the beginning of the special military operation, the following have been destroyed: 592 aircraft, 270 helicopters, 22,932 unmanned aerial vehicles, 509 anti-aircraft missile systems, 15,827 tanks and other armored combat vehicles, 1,271 combat vehicles of multiple launch rocket systems, 9,081 field artillery and mortar guns, as well as 21,274 units of special military vehicles.

***

Colonelcassad



Ukrainian formations again used drones to attack targets in at least five regions of Russia. — Four drones were destroyed

on approach to Voronezh . As a result of the fall of one of the devices, a crater with an area of ​​about one square meter was discovered on the territory of a private household. m, there was also a fire in the local SNT.

- In Lipetsk, a drone fell in an industrial zone, local authorities evacuated nearby houses.

- In the Smolensk region, UAVs attacked fuel and energy complex facilities in the Smolensk and Yartsevo regions : the Smolensk Refinery, where a fire broke out, also came under fire.

- Electronic warfare units and air defense crews also worked in the border regions: three drones were intercepted in the Kursk region , two in the Belgorod region

. As we have already noted , in recent months the enemy has concentrated on attacks on Russian oil refining facilities. And in the near future, such attacks will only intensify in order to provoke an increase in fuel prices, which will also affect the increase in the cost of all goods.

And one of the measures to counteract such raids is the effective organization of facility protection, including a network of radar and optical surveillance posts and mobile groups with anti-aircraft installations and searchlights in the vicinity of oil refineries and other similar facilities.

At the same time, a symmetrical response to so-called enterprises should be implemented. Ukraine, on whose territory similar facilities continue to operate. We also must not forget about the importance of destroying transport infrastructure - in particular, railway and road bridge.

***

Colonelcassad



At a time when Greek authorities are trying their best to prove that they did not transfer anti-aircraft missile systems to Ukrainian forces, several countries have announced new military aid packages.

USA :
ammunition, including 155mm shells for NATO howitzers
missiles for HIMARS (including ATACMS operational-tactical missiles)
equipment and ammunition for air defense
Bradley IFV, Humvee IFV and M113 APC.

Great Britain :
400 vehicles (160 Husky armored vehicles, 162 unnamed MRAPs, 78 all-terrain vehicles)
60 raiding and diving boats and boats
60 drones of unused type
1,600 strike and anti-aircraft missiles (including Storm Shadow cruise missiles)
four million pieces of ammunition.

Denmark
19 F-16 fighters.

Norway
22 F-16 fighters.

Lithuania
n/a number of command and staff armored vehicles M577

So far, in most positions there is no specificity, but a meeting in the Ramstein format will be held in the near future, at which NATO countries will probably announce assistance to the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

https://t.me/s/boris_rozhin

Google Translator

******

They Went To Hunt For Glory...

... to 404 and already have been thinking about boasting how they led the offensive which would defeat those backward Russkies. Well, the problem, of course, was that they still thought that US Army Manuals apply for 404 as well as they did in Gulf War. Boy, did they miscalculate. Some interesting points from Marat on Chasov Yar, which only confirm the point I make that no US general can command anything larger than regiment in SMO. They simply have neither knowledge nor experience.


К осени прошлого года «Хортица», которая на конец 22-го считалась самым крупным войсковым соединением в числе 4-х основных соединений ВСУ (240-260 тысяч человек), только за один год потеряла 150 тысяч. В результате все основные подразделения, я подчеркну, лучшие, что остались у «Хортицы» сейчас, сконцентрированные для обороны Часов Яра — по одному, а большинство по два раза уже полностью прошли переформирование. То есть были один или два раза полностью разбиты. Но давайте посмотрим на них повнимательнее, так как это само по себе очень интересно. На первом месте стоит опорная и наиболее боеспособная 93 бригада «Холодный Яр». По численности почти дивизия. За два года была дважды разбита.

Интересно, что «Холодные» считались наиболее боеспособными, потому что воевали в основном на лучшей трофейной российской технике. Это прежде всего танки Т-72, Т-80 и даже считанные Т-90. А так же лучшее, что было у укропов — Т-64 «Булат». «Холодные» являлись любимцами амеров, и, например, в ходе осенне-летней кампании 22-го года некоторыми подразделениями прямо руководили американские офицеры. Правда, когда началась Артемовская мясорубка быстро сбежали. На втором месте идет 46 аэромобильная (десантная) бригада, подготовленная англичанами в Англии, самая, кстати говоря, непотрепанная — всего один раз была на переформировании. Далее 92 десантно-штурмовая бригада (дважды уничтоженная). Эти вообще смертники. Вроде 110 бригады ВСУ под Авдеевкой. Отличились тем, что устроили резню наших пленных вместе с батальоном «Кракен» в селе Новоселовское под Сватово осенью 22-го. Тогда мученической смертью погибли 16 бойцов Луганского ополчения (ныне той самой 4-й бригады). Им надели на голову пакеты и удушили. Ой, что будет, когда луганцы доберутся до 92-х.


Translation: By the fall of last year, Khortitsa, which at the end of the 2022 was considered the largest military formation among the 4 main formations of the Ukrainian Armed Forces (240-260 thousand people), lost 150 thousand in just one year. As a result, all the main units, I emphasize, the best that remain at Khortytsya now, concentrated for the defense of Chasov Yar - one at a time, and the majority have already been completely reorganized twice. That is, they were completely destroyed once or twice. But let's take a closer look at them, as this in itself is very interesting. In first place is the supporting and most combat-ready 93rd brigade “Kholodny Yar”. Almost a division in numbers. In two years it was destroyed twice. It is interesting that the “Kholodnye” were considered the most combat-ready, because they fought mainly with the best captured Russian equipment. These are primarily T-72, T-80 and even a few T-90 tanks. And also the best thing the Ukrops had - the T-64 Bulat. The “Kholodnye” were the favorites of the Americans, and, for example, during the autumn-summer campaign of 22, some units were directly led by American officers. True, when the Artyomovskaya meat grinder began, they quickly fled. In second place is the 46th airmobile (airborne) brigade, trained by the British in England, which, by the way, is the most unshabby - it was only reformed once. Next is the 92nd Air Assault Brigade (twice destroyed). These are generally suicide troops. Like the 110th brigade of the Ukrainian Armed Forces near Avdeevka. They distinguished themselves by carrying out a massacre of our prisoners together with the Kraken battalion in the village of Novoselovskoye near Svatovo in the fall of the 22nd. Then 16 fighters of the Lugansk militia (now the same 4th brigade) died as martyrs. They put bags over their heads and suffocated them. Oh, what will happen when the Luhansk people reach 92nd.

Oh, we know what's gonna happen and it better be done without any phones around. Sadism towards POWs was "trained" by NATO instructors and this is the only thing they are good at. Recall how US media have been ejaculating in mid 2010s from describing H.R. McMaster who became, for a short while, the National Security Adviser to Trump. What many forgot that at some point there was a description of how McMaster's regiment treated Iraqi Army POWs--inhumanely. Remarkably, the piece was in one of the major US outlets--either New Yorker or NYT, one of those. Now I cannot find it. I tried, maybe you can. But this is the type of the "training", which is based on killing a third rate force which cannot shoot back and is demolished by the way of total air superiority. But McMaster's "story" and PR around his exploits in Iraq are totally inapplicable to the realities of modern war with "peer" or "better than peer", and that is what those American unit commanders learned really fast. Hence, they fled--very little glory in being evaporated by Tornado's salvo or being blown to smithereens by 152-mm shell or 3M14 Kalibr.

Remember a pathetic piece by WSJ in 2017 titled...

The New Cold War Pits a U.S. General Against His Longtime Russian Nemesis. It’s Trump’s national security adviser H.R. McMaster vs. Putin ally Valery Gerasimov

So, yes, they compared (Nemesis, LOL) Chief of the General Staff of Russian Armed Forces to a guy who commanded a... regiment in Iraq. I reacted already then:

Really? No, I really mean, really? How trivial and shallow one has to be when coming up, for starters, with such sappy baloney as "nemesis". Nemesis, if to follow popular Greek Mythology derived definition, is something a person can not overcome. The immediate question is, then, this--in what sense Russia's Chief Of General Staff Army General Valery Gerasimov is a "long-time nemesis" for US National Security Adviser General McMaster? How, in what inflamed fantasy, can Valery Gerasimov, who, throughout his career, commanded both 58th Army and then what would amount to several Army Groups, before becoming Chief Of General Staff, be a nemesis to a man, with all due respect to McMaster, whose "accomplishments" involve such things as, even if viewed briefly from Wiki:
In August 2008, McMaster assumed duties as Director, Concept Development and Experimentation (later renamed Concept Development and Learning), in the Army Capabilities Integration Center (ARCIC) at Fort Monroe, Virginia, part of U.S. Army Training and Doctrine Command. In this position McMaster was involved in preparing doctrine to guide the Army over the next ten to twenty years.
Apart from obvious gross mismatch in rank, command, responsibilities and accomplishments--Gerasimov's level is a level of the Chairman Of The Joint Chiefs Of Staff--one is forced to ask the question: and what are those "military thinking" accomplishments of McMaster per him being a Director, Concept Development and Experimentation? Almost ten years passed from the moment of McMaster's involvement with US doctrine. And what are the results?
It was a grotesque level of arrogance, ignorance and military illiteracy by the whole US military-propaganda establishment. And then they fled--no glory, I guess. But with such "thinkers" as McMaster, we may see yet another glorious US operational "planning" which will kill even more Ukrainians, who US military views merely as a cannon fodder of untermenschen. Hm, where did I see this before? You gotta love internet, it saves so much...

http://smoothiex12.blogspot.com/2024/04 ... glory.html

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Ten-year anniversary of the anti-coup rebellion eastern Ukraine, as Russian forces advance in Donetsk
Originally published: Al Mayadeen on April 23, 2024 by Dmitri Kovalevich (more by Al Mayadeen) | (Posted Apr 24, 2024)

April 2014 was a pivotal month for the people of the Donbass region in what was then still part of Ukraine. It was then that the governing regime was newly installed in Kiev by a coup d’état on February 20/21embarked on military hostilities against the people of the region. The coup overthrew Ukraine’s elected president and legislature. It sparked rebellion in Crimea, Donbass (Lugansk and Donetsk), and in towns and cities in other regions of eastern and southern Ukraine.

The coup installed a pro-Western, anti-Russia government. Police actions by the new regime to suppress opposition to the coup only deepened the rebellions, whose consequences are still felt today.

On April 10, 2014, a group of communists in the city of Lugansk seized the local headquarters of the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU), the national police agency of Ukraine. They issued demands for the release of opponents of the U.S.-supported coup who had been jailed for upholding Ukraine’s shaky constitutional foundation and opposing the coup, whose epicenter was Maidan Square in central Kiev.

Uprisings against the coup government quickly spread throughout southern and eastern Ukraine, including in Crimea, the two Donbass oblasts (provinces) of Lugansk and Donetsk, and, to a lesser degree, in Odessa and other cities and towns.

No one could have imagined in Lugansk in early April 2014 that hostilities could end in full-scale warfare by Kiev with essential political and military backing by the United States and the NATO military alliance it leads. But that is exactly what unfolded. The attempt by Kiev to suppress opposition to the coup in Donbass soon escalated into an eight-year war by Kiev. In early 2022, that war escalated into today’s large-scale conflict with Russia.

Elsewhere in Ukraine, the people of Crimea avoided war by voting on March 16 to secede from the coup Ukraine and join the Russian Federation. The people of Odessa city were not so lucky. On May 2, a day of anti-coup protest in the city ended in tragedy when right-wing paramilitaries who had traveled to the city from elsewhere in Ukraine for the purpose of violent provocations set fire to the large building in the center of the city where protesters had taken refuge from paramilitary violence. More than 45 protesters died.

The hypocrisy of democracy—some are allowed to have it, others not so
On April 10 in Lugansk, hundreds of local residents took up the call of the local Communist Party activists. One of the main arguments for storming the SBU building was the example set by coup fomenters in late 2013 and early 2014 in seizing police stations (and their arsenals of weapons) in western Ukraine, for example in the city of Lviv, the sixth largest city in Ukraine at the time, with a population of some 750,000. The communists in Lugansk argued that opponents of the coup should take similar actions to those of the coup makers months earlier.

The Western powers were watching events very closely. For them, violence and the seizure of weapons by some groups (right-wing paramilitaries) was justified, while for others (anti-coup protesters) it was totally ‘illegal’. This policy of double standards was on full display as the violent assault by Kiev against the population of Donbass began in earnest in April 2014. Locals became all the more convinced that all the talk coming from Western leaders and institutions about ‘equality’ and ‘democracy’ for Ukraine was nothing more than empty words.

Goal was autonomy; the accusations of ‘separatism’ were false
As rebellion quickly grew in Donbass, far-right paramilitary formations which were already formed in the west of the country to carry out the coup, or which rapidly developed following it, threatened violent, armed actions to suppress the developing protests in Kharkiv, Donetsk, Lugansk, and Zaporizhzhya oblasts and in other locations in the south and east. But the paramilitaries were only partly ‘successful’ (for example, one month later in Odessa).

In Lugansk and Donetsk cities, the local police offered little or no resistance to the anti-coup rebellions. This was parallel to how police in the western regions of Ukraine had largely stood by as the coming coup gained momentum in late 2013. As it turned out, much of the existing police and army personnel in Lugansk and Donetsk crossed over to the side of anti-coup protests, bringing their weapons with them. This was a major blow to Kiev and the West. Additionally, the soldiers of the Ukraine army as a whole were proving to be reluctant to follow orders to fire on anti-coup protesters. The paramilitaries responded to this by forming their own, military battalions, while the coup regime in Kiev embarked on a transformation of army personnel as a whole. In the coming years, the paramilitary formations would receive official status as autonomous constituents of the army and national police.

The BBC’ s Ukraine service reported on the seizure of the SBU headquarters in Lugansk on April 10, 2014, writing,

The police did not interfere with the takeover and left the building to the applause of pro-Russian [sic] activists who had gathered in the square. The crowd chanted ‘Russia’ and ‘referendum’.

The BBC report went on to cite the broadcast of a leader of the anti-coup protests in Lugansk, Vyacheslav Petrov, who appealed to the population. “I ask you not to panic. Everything will be fine. We are preparing for a referendum, which will take place on May 11. For that, everyone must think and make a choice.” The BBC continued,

The demands [of the anti-coup protest in Lugnsk] included an amnesty for all political prisoners, a referendum [on autonomy], the abolition of price and tariff increases, and giving the Russian language an official status of state language.1

Pro-Russian or anti-coup?
Anti-coup protesters in Donbass wanted a referendum to decide the future of the territory. They were inspired by the events taking place in Crimea. There, the government of the Autonomous Republic of Crimea (ARC) responded promptly to the threats by Ukraine authorities and paramilitaries to invade the territory and suppress opposition to the coup. With the cooperation of Russian leaders in Moscow and Russian armed forces long established in Crimea by a 1997 ‘treaty of friendship’ (Wikipedia) between Russia and Ukraine, the ARC government held a referendum on March 16, 2014, on the future status of the territory. An overwhelming majority voted to secede from Ukraine and join the Russian Federation. Polling showed that even a majority of ethnic Ukrainians residing in the peninsula voted in favor.

Thus ended Ukraine’s unpopular and unconstitutional governance of Crimea, ‘bestowed’ upon Ukraine by the leaders of the Soviet Union (USSR) in 1954, albeit with no vote offered to the local population. Crimea was the only region of Ukraine to have a regional, autonomous government. This meant that the very strong anti-coup sentiment in early 2014 had an immediate solution in the form of a referendum organized by the ARC, which was a fully constitutional entity of Ukraine.

Unfortunately, no such quick and democratic option was available to the other anti-coup regions of Ukraine, notably in Donbass. That’s because these regions lacked any strong forms of local or regional government that could step into the breach once the elected and constitutional government in Kiev was overthrown. It was also because the existing political parties in the anti-coup regions, as in the rest of Ukraine, largely represented only the economic elites.2

Separatism or political autonomy?
Western governments and media responded to the anti-coup protests in central and eastern Ukraine with epithets, calling them ‘separatist’. This was utterly false. The republics of Lugansk and Donetsk are, indeed, today constituents of the Russian Federation. The reason for this is the obstinance of Ukraine’s coup leaders. Following its military defeat in Donbass in early 2015, the Kiev regime signed the ‘Minsk 2’ peace agreement of February 12, 2015 (text here). It contained sweeping autonomy measures for Lugansk and Donetsk. The UN Security Council endorsed the agreement unanimously a short five days later. But as subsequent events proved, Kiev and its foreign backers, notably France and Germany who, like Russia, co-signed Minsk 2 as ‘guarantors’. But unlike Russia, the two EU powers never intended to implement it. As subsequent revelations showed, Kiev and its EU ‘co-signers’ never intended to implement Minsk 2; they signed it in order to ‘buy time’ for Ukraine’s army and paramilitaries to regroup and re-arm.

The claim that the ‘pro-autonomy movement’ in Donbass, to give it its proper name, was ‘pro-Russian’ was another of the Ukrainian and Western epithets. Of course, there was widespread pro-Russian sentiment in Donbass. Historically, the region had always been Russian in its ethnic composition. It always had positive economic relations with the Russian Federation and the Russian Soviet Republic before that. Where was the crime in that? But for the rulers of Ukraine and the West, this was, indeed, a ‘crime’ because they were embarked on a course to weaken Russia and to displace it entirely from Donbass and other regions of Ukraine. They wanted Ukraine to totally uproot its economic relations with Russia and become an economic subordinate to the EU and the United States.

Battle for Chasov Yar
After ten years, the territory of Lugansk is fully under the control of the Lugansk People’s Republic and it is a constituent of the Russian Federation. Next door in Donetsk, a battle is taking place in and around the town of Chasov Yar, app. 100 kilometers north of Donetsk city. This follows the capture by Russian forces of the city of Avdeevka several weeks ago, barely 20 km north of Donetsk, and the capture of the larger city of Artemivsk (called ‘Bakhmut’ in Ukraine, also app. 100 km north of Donetsk) in May 2023.

The tactics being used by the Russian Armed Forces at Chasov Yar (pre-war population 12,000) are similar to those at Avdeevka (barely 20 km north of Donetsk) and Artemivsk. Ukrainian troop positions are hit with heavy aerial bombs that destroy underground fortifications. Assault groups then surround the city from three sides, leaving only one way out: retreat westward toward Ukraine.

The ‘Kholodnyi Yar’ telegram channel of the 93rd Brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine is circulating a video in which a resident of Chasov Yar says he is waiting hopefully for the Russians to come.

He says that he is waiting for Russia and that he has relatives who live there. He says he cannot leave the town because our soldiers shoot all those wanting to cross over to territory held by the Russians.

The liberation of Chasov Yar by the Russian army may become a turning point in the Russian Special Military Operation (SMO) overall. It certainly opens highly unpredictable scenarios in the entire conflict. Russian military correspondent Alexander Sladkov believes that from Chasov Yar, the Russian offensive will advance in a straight line to the major industrial cities of Kramatorsk, a key railway junction 45 kilometers further east with a pre-war population of 160,000, and nearby Sloviansk. “Kramatorsk is the next city of Donbass that we will liberate,” he predicts.

Forcing Ukrainians to fight for NATO
In this context, it is becoming increasingly difficult for the Kiev regime to conduct its forced military conscription. The most common practice by Ukrainian men of military age 3 to avoid military recruiters is to hide in their homes or in ruins and wait for a chance to surrender to Russian forces. The Strana online news outlet in Ukraine published a report on April 2 by an officer of the AFU under the nickname ‘Night Stalker’ describing common methods used by the Ukraine army to pressure its soldiers who are reluctant to fight (and quite possibly die). It wrote,

How to motivate a recruit to fight who would otherwise choose to lie down in the trench on his belly and wait to surrender? The officer replied that ‘a conversation is enough for some. For others, a beating by the company officer or shooting over the soldier’s head may be needed.

The officer noted that there are also harsher methods of influence, but the report did not elaborate.

As more and more AFU soldiers are forcibly conscripted (abducted) from their homes or from streets or shops, the number of ‘refuseniks’—soldiers who refuse to go into combat—is growing in Ukrainian units. As a rule, refuseniks are arrested and then held in cramped, damp cages. The Ukrainian Telegram channel ‘Legitimny’ writes that according to its sources, rising numbers of Ukrainian soldiers are refusing to fight because that “no one wants to fight for the governing regime in Kiev and its leaders since it treats its people as slaves.”

In early April, the German state news outlet Deutsche Welle published a video report from Luzanivka in the Cherkasy region (central Ukraine), explaining there are no men left of military service age in the village. “If someone happens to die, there is no one left here to dig their grave,” says village council chairman Serhiy Nikolaenko. DW reports that about 50 men have been conscripted from the village of 400 people.

Strana cites Deutsche Welle in reporting from the village of Valentina. A resident explains, “In our small village, there are already so many missing and dead. Imagine for the whole of Ukraine!” The resident says both of his sons have been conscripted into the army.

Despite all this, President Volodymyr Zelensky and his government continue to try and ‘sell’ to Western media and politicians that a new ‘counteroffensive’ by the AFU may be launched. This is at a time when the human resources to replace the soldiers being lost to death, injury, or desertion are all but exhausted. “Yes, we have a plan for a counteroffensive. We will definitely win; we have no other alternative. But I can’t promise it and I can’t name a date,” Zelensky stressed in an interview with Germany’s BILD daily newspaper on April 9.

Oleksandr Dubinsky, a former MP from Zelensky’s Servant of the People party, adds that as long as the Ukrainian army is in retreat, it will be difficult to negotiate financial aid. In other words, the Ukraine regime plans to throw yet more Ukrainians into the slaughter so that the Ukrainian elite can maintain its economic ties with the West and continue to receive funding from it.

How neoliberalism has undermined Western hegemony
Another reason for the impossibility of an AFU ‘counteroffensive’ is the shortage of ammunition, which neither the West nor Ukraine are able to replenish. In Ukraine and the West, deindustrialization processes have undermined the ability to quickly organize production facilities.

Russian political scientist Malek Dudakov writes that it is extremely difficult for European Union countries to now boost their production of armaments. The EU countries today buy 80 percent of their armaments from outside their borders; 60 percent of that comes from the United States. “Euro bureaucrats miraculously want to reduce dependence on armaments imports to 50 percent by 2030. This is in the context of a severe crisis already happening in the European economy, due largely to deindustrialization. Even the production of shells faces problems because of the shortages of nitrocellulose (also known as ‘guncotton’) and other cotton products purchased from China,” he writes.

In early April, police searches were conducted in Ukraine and Poland amidst investigations by the Ukraine Defense Ministry of overpriced arms purchases. In 2022, the Ukrainian Defense Ministry signed several contracts with the Polish-registered firm Alfa for the supply of ammunition worth tens of millions of euros. Despite the fact that the firm failed to fulfill the terms of the first several contracts, the Ministry continued to cooperate with it. As of the beginning of 2023, Alfa owed the Defense Ministry more than 3.5 billion hryvnias (US$89 million) for arms purchases never received.

In late February, Zelensky claimed that global prices for artillery shells have increased five times (500%) since the start of the war with the Russian Federation. “Because of the war in Ukraine, even an ordinary artillery shell which cost $1500 at the beginning of the war can cost $4000 to $8000 today. So much for the war. For some it is a war, while for others it is just big business”, he said.

The Wall Street Journal reported on April 10 that U.S. drones produced in California’s Silicon Valley have not performed well in Ukraine.

U.S.-made UAVs [unmanned aerial vehicles] tend to be expensive, faulty and complicated to repair, say drone company executives, Ukrainians on the front lines, Ukrainian government officials, and some former U.S. military officials.

In general, the entire Western world is oriented to produce small numbers of expensive products, with high involvement of private middlemen. This model turns out to be highly ineffective in modern military conflicts, which require cheap and quick production on a mass scale. The only two ways, then, for Western firms to compete is to exploit the countries of the Global South for cheap production or to lower their own production standards.

Russia, meanwhile, has been undergoing processes of de-privatization, that is the return of manufacturing by private enterprises to state ownership. This helps to eliminate middlemen and make production cheaper. Since 2020, the number of cases in which the Russian Prosecutor General’s Office has challenged the legalities of privatizations during the privatization wave of the 1990s has grown eight times, according to the Russian TV channel RTVI.

The chief of Sweden’s SAAB arms producer, Micael Johansson, recently told the Financial Times that shortages of nitrocellulose were an example of why companies producing armaments need to build new supply chains in today’s “multipolar world” where “not only the Western,’ rules-based order’ will be present”. He added:

We have to think about like-minded countries who we can trust and with whom we can work with in the long term.

Reading between the lines, the SAAB official’s words mean increased pressure by Western countries on the Global South to locate more and more production there on the cheap. Effectively, it means a continuation of colonialist practices against smaller and less developed countries.

It has been fashionable in recent years for capitalist ideologues and commentators in the imperialist countries to criticize and even condemn the ‘offshoring’ of their manufacturing to China and other countries. But the drive to maximize profits takes precedence, and so offshoring remains an attractive practice. The capitalist system of production serves private interests, not public needs. Thus it has always been and will always remain.

Notes:
1. In post-Soviet Ukraine, there was and remains only one official language: Ukrainian. This was even true in Crimea where ethnic Ukrainians composed only some 15% of the population. In today’s Crimea (Russian Federation), there are three official languages: Russian, Crimean Tatar, and Ukrainian.
2. Crimea’s autonomous status dates back to the Russian Revolution of 1917, which implemented sweeping forms of political self-determination for the many nationalities that comprised the pre-Revolution Russian Empire. This was and remains the origin of independent Ukraine. ‘Soviet’ Ukraine was formed during the harsh years of civil war from 1918 to 1920. It went on to become a founding constituent of the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics in 1922. Officials of Soviet Ukraine led a secession from the USSR in 1990/1991. The country had already won its independence 70 years earlier.
3. Military registration is obligatory in Ukraine for all men between the ages of 18 and 65. The age of military service (conscription) is 25 to 60 (recently reduced from 27).

https://mronline.org/2024/04/24/ten-yea ... n-donetsk/

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The Nazi will monitor human rights
April 24, 23:29



Paul Massaro has been appointed HR Director of the Helsinki Commission.
The US Helsinki Commission monitors human rights and international cooperation in 57 countries.
Pictured is Paul Massaro, the new Director of Human Rights.

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/9115077.html

Exhibition of trophies on Poklonnaya Hill
April 25, 11:59



In general, almost all the captured equipment (so far the boats are just not visible) from the Patriot Park was transported for display at the trophy exhibition on Poklonnaya Gora + new trophies were added to it. The result is the largest exhibition of captured armored vehicles since the beginning of the Northern Military District. The event opens on May 1st, so I recommend visiting, there is something to see, both old and new.
Perhaps they will still have time to put the Leopard in order and also drive it to Poklonnaya Gora.
For a complete set, there are not enough Abrams, Challenger and Stryker.









https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/9115891.html

(Reminds me of the collection of largely Nazi WWII trophies at Edgewood Arsenal back home.)

Google Translator

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Doctor Death: Ukraine's Nazi-loving Health Privatizer

Neonazis=neoliberals

EVENTS IN UKRAINE
APR 25, 2024

Today we will be having a look at Ulyana Suprun, American-born Ukrainian minister of health from 2016-2019. She is pictured on the right, with the gentleman on the left being Serhii Sternenko. According to Suprun, ‘we can all become like Serhii’. Soon we will find out what she meant by that. In short, the reader will be treated to yet another example of the tight alliance between Ukrainian neoliberals and neonazis.



Suprun has quite an interesting background. According to strana.ua journalist Aleksei Romanov:

This U.S. citizen appeared in Ukraine at the end of 2013, right at the start of the coup. Few know that she is the daughter of George Harry Yurkiv, a shareholder and vice-president of "North American Controls."

This is a major Pentagon contractor that manufactures hydraulic and control components for M1 Abrams tanks, armored personnel carriers, and other combat vehicles.

Suprun’s grandmother was also a ‘member of the Ukrainian liberation movement of the 1930s and 1940s’, from which one can draw the obvious conclusions. While she herself grew up in Detroit, her husband Marko grew up in Canada. After taking part in Maidan in 2013, she became head of humanitarian initiatives of the Global Congress of Ukrainians.

She only received Ukrainian citizenship in 2015, given personally by Poroshenko. It was given on the basis that she was a ‘person, regarding whom the granting of citizenship is a matter of national interest.’ Her government career began immediately after, eventually becoming minister of health in 2016 on Poroshenko’s recommendation.

On February 5 2019, the Kiev regional administrative court demanded that the state migration service check whether Suprun still had US сitizenship. A Ukrainian politician had brought the case to the court, noting that occupying a ministerial post as a dual citizen is illegal (which doesn’t stop people of course, as the cases of Natalie Jaresko and Igor Kolomoisky showed). Given that Suprun moved back to the USA in 2020, it seems likely that she was indeed a dual citizen all that time. Not that one needs to guess, given her political career.


Marko and Ulyana receiving citizenship from Poroshenko (right).

The medical front
Of her various struggles, she was of course most well known for her medical reforms. It was for this reason that she received the epithet ‘Doctor Death’ in Ukraine. According to a March 2020 poll by the Ukrainian ‘Reiting’, only 18% of Ukrainians were pleased with Suprun’s medical reforms. Only 19% considered Suprun’s work in the ministry of health to have been positive. 62% considered her influence to have been negative.

According to Focus.ua, Suprun’s ‘British-style’ reform meant that state funds for medicine went to insurance companies who paid medical institutions for parients served. As a result, smaller medical institutions, which Ukraine is filled with, went bankrupt. There are constant problems with missing salaries for Ukraine’s medical staff. The number of medical personnel is repeatedly slashed. This leaves many people in rural areas or smaller towns without any medical assistance at all. It also became more difficult to acquire medicine.

Because of these ‘rationalizations’, there was an epidemic of closures of psychiatric institutions in 2020. It became even more normal to see severely mentally ill people wandering the streets. Another result was that by the end of the Poroshenko government in 2019, Ukraine had 10 thousnad hospital beds with oxygen, which hardly served it well during covid.





While having kind words for her during his election campaign, once he got into power Zelensky was clear that he didn’t approve of her reforms He even referred to the fact that she is often called ‘Doctor Death’. Ruslan Stefanchuk, key member of Zelensky’s command, said that ‘people haven’t gotten the results that people in other countries got after implementing the same unpopular reforms’. She was sacked in September 2019. After leaving her post, she dedicated herself to ‘attacking soviet myths’ about medicine on Facebook, as well as arguing in favour of legalizing cannabis.


A protest against Suprun’s medical reforms. ‘NO destruction of emergency aid’ ‘Mrs Suprun! You do not live in America! Live according to our Ukrainian realities!’

Suprun’s friends

Suprun was never just a privatizer of medicine. Ukraine’s liberals and nationalists have always been more than allies - but really two departments of the same organization.

One of her most well-known friends is Serhiy Sternenko. Nowadays, he, alongside Sorosite luminary Serhiy Pritula, seem poised to be the atlanticist candidates for Ukraine’s next elections, if they will ever take place. Sternenko is someone I plan to write about more in the future. Even some of Ukraine’s liberal media like Hromadske wrote a three part take down of Sternenko and his drug-dealing extortion rackets.

In any case, for the purpose of this article, we will be having a look at Suprun’s support of Sternenko during his battle with the law. He was having troubles with the law - though never actually imprisoned for it - because of a murder he committed on camera.

According to Sternenko’s supporters, there had been three attempts on his life in Odessa in the time leading up to May 2018, when two unarmed men approached Sternenko. The young patriot decided to take the offensive, seriously wounding one of them and running after the other, stabbing him to death on the ground. This was all live streamed on Facebook by Sternenko’s partner, who became Suprun’s office assistant in July 2020.

Absurdly, Sternenko was ruled the victim by a May 2020 ruling, because his hand was wounded (by his own knife!). The murdered man was ruled the aggressor, which, as the prosecution lawyer told strana.ua, is itself illegal. In the two years prior to this, protection by the Poroshenko government meant that Sternenko didn’t spend a day in jail for a murder he live streamed. When he came to the SBU court in May 2020 to see if he would receive a formal accusation, he was accompanied by over 100 angry ‘activists’. Ulyana Suprun also came along to support the young patriot at the SBU building in June 2020.


Suprun is wearing the blue mask.

According to Suprun, Sternenko is a ‘model for the new Ukrainian’. She wrote the following on facebook in 2020, also blaming Interior Minister Arsen Avakov and Zelensky for the crackdown on freedom fighters like Sternenko:

Sergiy Sternenko for me is an example of that generation of Ukrainians who will be able to put everything in its place. These people were born and raised in an independent Ukraine. They, like no others, have a great demand for justice, security, and the real effectiveness of the state. And it is very important not to let them be intimidated, to crush their ability to speak the truth, to turn them into cynics.

When such people in their hometowns or villages start calling things by their real names and actively prevent theft by the likes of [Mayor of Odessa] Trukhanov, they face attacks, assassination attempts, and persecution by police and prosecutors, who often serve not the citizens, but local feudal lords.

By the way, regarding Avakov - the subterranean aspect of this whole story is the struggle between what one might call the NGO Right (Sternenko, supported by Suprun) and the Statist Right (Azov, supported by Avakov). Sternenko has old beef with Azov. The latter point out how he has never gone to the frontline but bases his whole career off fundraising for the army. Sternenko is also accused of being supported by ‘woke Sorosites’, which, to be fair, is true. Grand Fuhrer of Azov, Andrii Biletsky, even beat up some Azovites for their support of Sternenko in 2020. I also suspect that their conflict has at least some of its basis in conflict over control of drug trafficking. Both Azov and Sternenko have been accused of plenty of that.

The pro-Sternenko protests were quite funny. I remember how at the time every self-respecting hipster in Kiev took up Sternenko’s defense. All the vegan anarchists were in love. When I asked some of them I knew at the time why they supported him, they gave some vague formulations. The protests themselves, which famously included an attack on the president’s office in March 2021 which cost 2 million hryvnias to repair, also included liberal NGO activists chanting slogans about the need for anti-corruption court reforms - which, not coincidentally, is the main demand of the IMF.


The aftermath of the March 2021 ‘pogrom on the President’s office’. At this point, Sternenko was being charged with kidnapping, torturing and extorting money from an Odessan politician in 2015.
The protests in June 2020 in support of Sternenko were quite the show. There was a wide range of Poroshenkite era rightwingers there, from Yanina Sokolova to Yaroslav Yurchishin, who brought up sternenko’s glorious history in the maidan self-defense.


Aleksei Tsimbalyuk also came. He had been taken to court not long before for beating up a strana journalist. He also threw a firecracker into a court deliberating on Sternenko on June 12 2020


One of Sternenko’s adoring fans. Credit to strana.ua


More scenes from the June protest in support of Sternenko that Suprun attended.


Sternenko speaking (front left), gazed upon by his flock.

Suprun never missed a protest in support of the rightwing neoliberals she so loved. On 4 November 2019, there was a protest in honur of the year-old acid killing of Ekaterina Gandzyuk, anti-corruption activist and acting mayor of Kherson. This is a cause de celebre of the anti-Avakov liberal nationalists, with ‘who killed Katya Gandzyuk’ graffiti covering Kiev to this day. Sternenko, Suprun, leader of the ‘Center for the Prevention of Corruption’ Vitaly Shabunin (I have written about his conflict with Zelensky here), and Poroshenkite former minister of justice Yury Lutsenko all appearing. Sternenko and Suprun also made a joint appearance at the courthouse where the Poroshenko-era minister of infrastructure was being judged for corruption.

(Much more at link. Very interesting.)

https://eventsinukraine.substack.com/p/ ... azi-loving

Those Nazis and their tats...gonna make filtration a whole lot easier. Take the tat and take the rap.

[blindpig]

«Any support is possible»
POSTED BY @NSANZO ⋅ 26/04/2024



More than two years have passed since the Russian invasion and the start of the Russian-Ukrainian war, which extended a conflict that for eight years had remained concentrated solely in the Donbass region to the entire country. Despite the damage, fatigue and high casualties in both armies and the difficulty of maintaining supplies for such a high-intensity fight, there are no signs in sight of a change that could direct the conflict to diplomatic channels. The bad weather season ends, the fronts are reactivated and the fighting increases both on the line of contact and in the rear. And it does so in parallel to the constant verbal escalation that has marked the progress of this war in which, little by little, borders that would have seemed red lines months ago are being crossed. Installed in an increasingly warlike and belligerent dynamic, the limits between war and peace disappear and the approval of a massive military financing package for Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan worth more than $95 billion is, according to Joe Biden , “a good day for world peace.” The New York Times calls that legislation “the center of President Biden's foreign policy.”

With war and rearmament as the main aspect of the foreign policy of the leading world power, one can only expect a greater military, political and media escalation, which is even clearer in the Ukrainian case. Satisfied with the more than $60 billion that the United States has approved this week, kyiv also seeks to solve problems that cannot be solved with more weapons alone. For example, the availability of more equipment and ammunition can balance the conflict in certain aspects, but it will not by itself stop the Russian Federation from having enormous artillery potential, the ability to produce missiles and drones, or much superior aviation. which Ukraine is going to obtain with the limited number of F-16s that its partners are preparing to deliver. Hence, Ukrainian representatives such as Mikhailo Podoliak insist daily on the need to take more steps towards the complete breakup of the West and the Russian Federation, with a substantial increase in the level of sanctions. “Russia is weaker than the alliance of the free world,” he wrote yesterday in his usual Cold War language, “and the outcome of the war in Ukraine is already programmed: the aggressor will be defeated sooner or later. To accelerate victory, all we need is the political will of our allies: there is a need to cut Russia's trade ties, which still allow it to finance the murder of Ukrainians.” Forgetting that the free world , that is, the United States and its allies, has not managed to get the Global South to join the sanctions against Russia, Podoliak sees the simple solution of making Russia unable to fight. In this war, not only the level of belligerence increases, but also the level of magical thinking.

In the realm of the real and not the imaginary, Ukraine faces more serious problems that begin by resolving the personnel issue, one of the issues on which Western discourse has changed the most. For more than a year, the press and political representatives have repeated ad nauseum that Russia was preparing to carry out a new mobilization. However, with greater demographic potential, recruitment in prisons and abroad, and economic incentives that make joining the armed forces an acceptable option for lower-income population groups, Russia has reversed the imbalance of troops with which it began. war. The West, which in 2022 was confident that Moscow would not be able to mobilize the 300,000 soldiers it proposed recruiting, has not been able to explain how Ukraine has lost its numerical superiority. And he has not done so fundamentally because, in that case, he would have had to admit three uncomfortable truths: nationalist fervor no longer provides the necessary volunteers, men of military age continue trying to leave the country and the casualties of the Ukrainian Armed Forces are very high. higher than Volodymyr Zelensky admits.

The country's population loss is the subject of an article published this week by The Kyiv Independent , which without going into the causes, admits that the current Ukrainian population is likely to be around 37.9 million people, a huge drop from the 48.5 million determined by the last census carried out, that of 2001, even then with a sharp drop in population compared to the Soviet census of 1989, according to which socialist Ukraine had 51.7 million inhabitants. The media does not focus on the drop in population that caused the economic misery of the first decade of independence, the emigration to the east and west, the drop in the birth rate as a result of the bad economic situation, nor that Ukraine has never managed to recover. of the demographic catastrophe that marked the fall of the Soviet Union. As uncomfortable as it is to admit that reality is to see that, even in the current optimistic population estimate, it includes several million people who are not in territories under kyiv's control and where Ukraine cannot, therefore, recruit soldiers. What's more, these territories are one of the sources of recruitment for Russia, since it is there where the population is most aware of the importance that the development of the war has for their present and future.

The growing needs and the absolute normalization of the chronification of the war mean that news that could have been months ago is not surprising. This is the case of the Ukrainian announcement of the elimination of consular services for men of military age - 18 to 60 years -, so this population will not be able, for example, to renew their passports and will remain in an irregular situation in the countries where that resides at the time those documents expire. Ukraine's objective is clear, that they return to the country to fight for the homeland, as was made clear at the end of last year, when several Ukrainian representatives raised the possibility of countries that have welcomed refugees sending them back.

The suggestion angered Germany, which at this time does not seem to have changed its mind. However, other more radical countries have done so, willing to collaborate so that the Ukrainian authorities have more population to recruit for the battle. There are already two countries that, just a few hours after Kuleba's announcement, have shown their availability to help Ukraine recover a part of the military-age male population that is abroad. “Lithuania proposes limiting certain rights of Ukrainians in the country to force them to go to war,” Europa Press headlined yesterday , reflecting Vilnius' willingness to support Ukraine in this way as well. “Of course, no one is going to arrest them and send them to Ukraine. This is not going to happen,” the Minister of Defense would have to clarify after stating that, although it is still difficult “to say what measures to take, it will have to be discussed.” Laurynas Kasciunas admitted the possibility of limiting the rights of the Ukrainian population residing in the country as an incentive for their return to Ukraine. “They could be cut off from receiving social aid, work permits or other documents, those are options that I am hearing from Poland,” said the minister. “Any support is possible,” Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz, Minister of Defense of Poland, had stated hours before in reference to the possible response of the Government in the event that kyiv asked for help to recover the men who lose the right to continue in the country. when their passports expire.

Although several countries had already proposed economic incentives for the Ukrainian refugee population to voluntarily return home, the willingness of countries such as Poland or Lithuania to facilitate Ukraine's recovery of men that it sent to the front based on forms of coercion represents a further escalation. in the current proxy war. kyiv has already received the promise that it will have the necessary weapons to continue fighting and is looking for a way to recruit hundreds of thousands more men to maintain the front. To do this he needs all the men he can recruit, whether voluntarily or by force. Here, too, Ukraine depends on its foreign collaborators.

https://slavyangrad.es/2024/04/26/cualq ... s-posible/

Google Translator

******

From Cassad's Telegram account:

Colonelcassad
Forwarded from
Military chronicle
What will the supply of ATACMS missiles change for the Ukrainian Armed Forces and the Russian Armed Forces?

It is likely that some modifications of long-range missiles have already been delivered to Ukraine, but are not yet in use. However, the characteristics of the weapon and the almost twice the range of some missiles impose certain restrictions on the use of such weapons.

By and large, the importance or unimportance of ATACMS transmission is determined by two things: quantity and modifications. Why?

Without the required quantity, it is impossible to achieve the salvo density required when firing at important military targets. The Ukrainian Armed Forces will partly try to solve this problem by using drones (the notorious overload of air defense systems), however, numerous UAVs may not be enough to use ATACMS on a regular basis. The United States stores several thousand missiles of this type, but it can hardly be expected that at least half of these missiles will be transferred to the Ukrainian Armed Forces. Even if this happens, finding enough drones to “escort” an attack is a major industrial and logistical challenge. Ukraine is able to solve it, but not without consequences for its own combat effectiveness. In other words, it is possible to carry out from one to three attacks. But long-term and regular combat use (as, for example, with Russian cruise missiles) is questionable. At least for now.

The modifications, in turn, directly determine the likelihood of striking a particular target. ATACMS are equipped with monoblock and cluster warheads. It is quite possible that the Ukrainian Armed Forces will have both missiles at their disposal. However, the main idea of ​​​​using ATACMS in the West (in the context of the transfer of these weapons to the Armed Forces of Ukraine) is based on the fact that if missiles are used against one or several targets, this will sharply provoke Russia into holding negotiations and concluding peace. This idea always runs into one fundamental problem: even if, at the cost of enormous effort, a series of attacks on targets in the rear are carried out, but this is limited, then such an expensive (and automatically triggering a retaliatory strike) operation will not change the situation at the front in any way.

You don’t have to look far for an example: the use of expensive Storm Shadow / SCALP missiles did not help the Ukrainian Armed Forces hold Avdeevka and Ocheretino, did not prevent the Russian army from rushing to Chasov Yar, did not give Ukraine more space in the Black Sea and did not prevent the disabling of energy facilities.

Final clarity on the ATACMS issue will appear after the publication of the supply list. However, it can be assumed that the bulk of the Ukrainian Armed Forces' efforts to implement ATACMS will again be focused on strikes that can cause a media effect.

Another important issue is ATACMS targeting. Taking into account the fact that the Ukrainian Armed Forces (literally) slept through the offensive on Avdeevka and Chasov Yar, where not just brigades, but divisions with rear forces operated, there are doubts about the ability of the Ukrainian army to receive high-quality information about the military installations of the Russian Armed Forces. Foreign RER/OER capabilities seem to be suitable for this, but only to a limited extent.

Thus, we can conclude that the use of ATACMS on the battlefield requires a qualitative reformatting of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and the attraction of additional huge resources. The US/NATO cannot or does not want to put them in a single direction at the moment, which will inevitably force the Ukrainian army to adjust its own (?) plans for striking.

https://t.me/s/boris_rozhin

Google Translator

*******

SITREP 4/24/24: Comedown After Post-Aid 'High' Brings West Back to Reality

SIMPLICIUS
APR 25, 2024
The ink has yet to dry on the signed Ukrainian aid, but it has finally passed both House, Senate, and the final Biden rubberstamp. As predicted here, the list of new items is “long” but mostly constitutes the secondary munitions types which aren’t as easily expendable and therefore still exist in some quantity. The primary ones, i.e. artillery shells and such, are still heavily backlogged.



As you can see, much of the munitions above represent ones which have long lost their effectiveness and have done nothing to really make a dent of any kind in the battlefield.

In fact, just days ago Ukraine’s head of the aerial reconnaissance support center, Maria Berlinskaya, stated that “most Western systems have proven to be [worthless]” because Russian EW neutralizes them all. Listen for yourself: (Video at link.)


It was also revealed that much of the gear was already forward-stationed and merely awaiting the final approval, and has begun streaming in from Poland. In fact, some of it was already secretly given a week or two ago, such as in the case of the ATACMS missiles, which were already used as most had guessed since the strike on Dzhankoi airbase a week ago.





There was footage showing the offloading of about a dozen M2 Bradleys from Poland, ready to be sent to Ukraine.

What difference will that make? There is hardly more than that to be sent, and most of them looked worn out and probably the non-working write-offs as we’ve already come to find out from AFU servicemen themselves, who admitted many of the previously sent Bradleys/Abrams were in non-working condition.



The problem is, amid the wave of drunken excitement over the new aid, there have been many sober voices making efforts to temper the wild flights of exaggerated optimism.

This has spurred calls for NATO to totally reconfigure itself into a full war footing because cooler heads have recognized that this aid will amount to nothing more than a brief respite for Ukraine, but will do nothing for actually equalizing the forces, much less overwhelming Russia with some kind of superiority or material overmatch.






Even Dmitry Kuleba echoed the sentiment:

“No [aid] package can stop the Russians,” he said in an interview with the British publication The Guardian, commenting on the US aid package.

Kuleba added that the West needs to increase arms production, since Russia is ahead of it. “When I see what Russia has achieved in building up its defense industrial base over two years of war and what the West has achieved, I think that something is wrong on the West’s part,” the minister noted.

And the main issue is now rearing its head more than ever: out of the several disastrous problems plaguing the AFU, the supply issue is not even its biggest; that dishonorable distinction goes to the lack of usable manpower.

Polish general named Ukraine's main problem at the front lines

Ukraine faces a great challenge, first of all having someone to fight with.... There are 150-200 thousand soldiers missing at the front.This is a big challenge for the Kiev government," said former Polish commander General Waldemar Skrzypczak on air on FM radio station RMF.

This has brought conversations back to the topic of mobilization. Even though Zelensky has signed the bill, there appears to be a dragging of feet as nothing drastic is yet being done, just a slow boil of increasingly draconian street gangpressing as usual. But commanders and other authoritative observers on the front continue to bellow in strained voices that the situation is grim and Ukraine needs more manpower most of all.


Without being privy to the discussions of Zelensky’s cohort, we can only assume that they deem the civil situation to be so pessimistic that they’re terrified of announcing anything too overtly forceful, particularly given that Zelensky’s legitimate hold on power is set to soon expire less than a month from today. In fact, it technically already expired, as the elections should have been held by now—but May 21st is officially when a new president would have been sworn in.

As for mobilization, here’s Ukrainian lawyer Rostislav Kravets and Arestovich both separately revealing that there are reportedly over 100,000 deserters in the AFU:



This is utterly shocking because they are talking about actual deserters who were already fighting on the front or in military units—not men who fled the country to avoid service; those, as we all know, already number in potentially the millions. For instance, this headline from the start of the SMO in 2022 states 500k had already fled: (Videos at link.)

No, this is much worse. These are actual deserters from the already-thinning frontline, which is said to have a measly ~250-300k men or less. As such it represents a catastrophic morale. It’s another wake up call to those who actually believe Kiev’s casualty numbers. Tens of thousands of confirmed POWs, 100k deserters, but only 30k killed?

Listen to Zelensky lie out of every orifice below. Not only does he lie about mobilization being for replacing brigades but also that it’s merely about getting younger soldiers to operate drones, since they’re ‘better with technology’. We now know the mobilization bill in fact eschewed the ‘demobilization’ clause, so yes, the new men are to replace brigades but not in the way he implies, i.e. not to rotate them out, but to replace destroyed/deceased ones: (Vvideo at link.)


Of course the most disgusting of the lies is the suggestion that the young will only be used to operate drones and technological things, implying they’ll be safely in the ‘rear’ as most drone operators are. In reality, they will be sent as fodder to the zero line. Drone operators take the fewest losses and therefore require the least ‘replacement’—it’s the storm troops and meatshield contact line defenders that need constant replenishment.

Speculative, but Rezident UA reports:

#Inside
Our source in the OP said that the Syrsky asks the Office of the President to prepare a bill on the mobilization of Ukrainians from the age of 20 for autumn. The General Staff believes that reducing the age to 25 will not allow the TCK to recruit the necessary number of men to replenish reserves, and now young people are needed for assault crews who are able to carry out offensive operations without equipment.

Other rumors continue to plague the struggling Ukrainian project:




https://uk.news.yahoo.com/ukraine-russi ... 06170.html

So, we come to the natural extension of all the above. Given these issues, and the slow-creeping realization that even the present U.S. “aid” will not amount to much, what are NATO ‘partners’ to do? They continue talks of deploying troops to save Ukraine:


https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/cou ... o-ukraine/

Here’s how the above article begins:

It is 2026, and in a downbeat speech at the Kremlin, Vladimir Putin finally announces a withdrawal from Ukraine. Russian troops have done their best – or worst – but a fresh influx of well-trained Ukrainians have finally prevailed. The Donbas is now in Kyiv’s grip, Crimea’s fall only days away.

What has turned the tide, though, is not just the long-awaited F16s, or Washington switching the funding back on. Instead, it is the presence of thousands of European troops across Ukraine’s western half, protecting cities, ports and borders, making Ukraine feel reassured and Russia unnerved. As Kyiv celebrates, Europe quietly pats itself on the back too: after 80 years clutching America’s coat-tails, it finally stepped up to win a war in its own backyard.

Do you see what the sneaky method behind the madness to this wildly delusional stretch is? They are slowly conditioning not only the public but their own leadership to accept the already propositioned ploy of slowly worming ground troops into the equation, by first using them ostensibly to “free up” much-needed Ukrainian “rear” troops. Of course, when those troops, too, depart the temporal realm or ‘desert’ as 100k of their compatriots have done, it leaves the question of what calamitous next step the NATO troops would take. Many have rightfully recalled that this is precisely how Vietnam’s intervention began, with U.S. “advisors” gradually escalating their mission creep and presence in the country.

But just as I had written a while back, such troops would not enjoy the benefits of Article 5, which only applies to NATO’s home soil, and the authors here bitterly admit to this fact:

The big question is this: what would happen when bodybags started coming home? Troops stationed in significant numbers would be an obvious target for Russian missiles, and with no Article 5 to protect them, the Kremlin would surely be tempted to attack. Mr Grant says that any contributing European government would have to accept possible loss of life.

The article is mostly a nod and hat tip to the more weighty piece from CFR’s Foreign Affairs, penned in part by Substack’s own Phillip P. O’Brien, whom many of you are probably familiar with:


https://archive.ph/9NuB3

This article goes a step further, outlining the ‘benefits’ of European forces not only providing logistical support in the rear to free up AFU, but also “defensive combat” work, such as operating AD systems to shoot down Russian air attacks.

One interesting aspect presented here is the vindication of my own prophetic words from some of my very earliest articles. Some may recall I once wrote that when the time comes, NATO could easily sell the conflict as a non-Article-5 exception in order to help Ukraine without the fear of nuclear exchange. I said there are many mechanisms and technicalities by which this could be done. Lo and behold, this very article presents the same idea: that NATO could enter Ukraine not under the legal umbrella of “NATO” but simply “Europe”—an important distinction for the sake of deliberately not invoking the Russia/NATO dichotomy and attendant legal responsibilities of Article 5.

As a final third escalatory measure, the article proposes this ‘European army’ to defend Odessa and even attack approaching Russian troops:

One potential Russian target is Odessa, Ukraine’s main port where most of the country’s exports are shipped. If Russian troops were to approach the city, European forces in the vicinity would have the right to defend themselves by firing on the advancing soldiers.

Their excuse for the blatant indifference to threat escalation is the canard that Russia is weak, would never use nukes, and that 90% of the Russian army has already been destroyed. In fact, we now know it’s the opposite:



Meanwhile:



So, it is in fact Ukraine that lost 90% of its army in the literal first days of the war, and has reconstituted it several times, while the Russian army is now bigger and stronger than before.

But the calls are growing louder:


https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/p ... 27767.html

Former British Deputy Defense Minister James Hippy recommends that the country's leadership consider sending a contingent of the British army to Ukraine for deployment in the rear, far from the war zone. They say that if they find British soldiers near Avdiivka, it can provoke a NATO-Russia conflict.

As well as provocations from NATO and its lapdogs:

Press briefing featuring General Carsten Breuer: (Video at link.)


The commander of the Estonian Defense Forces, General Martin Herem, spoke in an interview about his readiness to “blow to smithereens” Russia.

“Estonia, Finland and Sweden will immediately take control of the situation in the Baltic Sea from the first minutes of aggression. If we close the Baltic Sea, how are you going to deliver potatoes from St. Petersburg to Kaliningrad? And we will smash all those who try to influence us from a distance of 50 or 100 kilometers, as is happening today in Ukraine! We will destroy them not in Rakvere or Narva, but in Ivangorod, Pechory or somewhere there.”

Which of course is being skewed by the neocons as Russia being the agitator and provocateur, when in reality it’s them trying to bait Russia to attack the weaker links in order to continue the forever war to destroy Europe:


And though they’re most likely fake, there continue to be various rumors of French troops having already arrived in Odessa:

BREAKING

French soldiers reported to have arrived in Odessa

The Kherson Resistance, quoting its own sources in the city, reports that around 10 April (the day Odessa was liberated from the fascists) at least 1,000 French military personnel arrived in the port of Odessa on a civilian ship.

According to pro-Russian partisans, these Frenchmen were met and escorted by NATO officers. It is also reported that another transfer of French military personnel to Ukraine is planned in the near future.

(Much more at link,)

https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/sit ... after-post

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FORCED MILITARY RECRUITMENT DRIVES EXODUS OF UKRAINIANS
Apr 24, 2024 , 7:00 pm .


According to surveys, 63% of Ukrainians of military age do not want to join the army (Photo: SOPA Images Limited / Legion-Media)

Many Ukrainians have gone to their country's consulate in Warsaw, Poland, after the Ministry of Foreign Affairs stopped providing services to their male compatriots. This radical measure is taken to prevent citizens between 18 and 60 years old from avoiding being on the front lines of the current war against Russia.

A statement notes that consulates are only allowed to provide identity documents for return to Ukraine. That kyiv resorts to these forms of forced recruitment reveals the critical situation it finds itself in due to the lack of troops, either because they have died or because they are fleeing the war.

Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmitri Kuleba revealed that he was the one who ordered restricting consular services abroad to Ukrainians of military age starting Tuesday, April 23. He argued that Ukrainians living in other countries cannot benefit from state services while their compatriots "fight far away on the front line and risk their lives."

As a desperate measure, forced mobilization has been applied in the country for months. This has been met with resistance from the population because families are aware that casualties are high and Russia is winning the war. Many images have circulated of Ukrainian military commissars dragging future soldiers by their feet and arms in the middle of the street, breaking into public transport or into their own homes.

To remedy the lack of personnel, Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky enacted measures aimed at replenishing the ranks of his country's exhausted and battered army, one of which was the reduction of the recruitment age from 27 years to 25, and the elimination of some medical exemptions. However, they have created databases of the male population from 17 years of age. Zelensky justified the lowering of the mobilization age by pointing out that "more young fighters are needed." He argued that this age group is necessary because of their mastery of technologies.

If defeat is imminent, there is no patriotic feeling that is above the instinct to survive. According to surveys , 63% of Ukrainians of military age do not want to go to the army and 17% are undecided. At the same time, 60% of respondents refer to military recruiting offices as a dictatorship.

Last week, Politico indicated that some 650,000 men of military age have clandestinely fled across the borders to avoid going to war. The media points out that constant defeats and the lack of military equipment and ammunition have demoralized Ukrainian troops, a gloomy panorama in which fleeing the battle fronts is the best option.

Following the recent massive attacks on Ukrainian energy and military infrastructure that have caused thousands of casualties, 27 soldiers surrendered in one week, a scenario that is repeated along all battle lines.

The lack of troops is so serious that the country's main military advisor on gender issues, Oksana Grigorieva, used gender equality as a cover to point out that women must be mobilized in the coming years, which would be running out. outdated traditions and adopting the Israeli-style recruitment policy. "That means training both men and women to be prepared for war," Ella said.

https://misionverdad.com/globalistan/re ... ucranianos

Google Translator

******

Ocheretino. 04/25/2024
April 25, 22:26



The situation in the Ocheretino area on the evening of 04/25/2024

1. The cleanup continues in Ocheretino; the enemy is not making any serious efforts to regain control over the lost village. The enemy's main positions are to the west of the village. There is also some presence in the northwestern part of the village.

2. Novobakhmutovka came under the control of the RF Armed Forces, the cleanup in the village is ending.
There were virtually no serious battles for it.

3. The enemy actually retreated from Solovyevo. The Russian Armed Forces advanced to the central part of the village. They are trying to establish the main positions of the Ukrainian Armed Forces to the west and southwest of Solovyevo. In the near future, the village will completely come under the control of the Russian Armed Forces after the cleanup is completed.

4. The assault on Novokalinovo continues. Our troops have not yet entered Keramik.

5. There are unconfirmed reports of Russian attack aircraft infiltrating into the outskirts of Arkhangelsk. If this is so, then this hints that the enemy does not have a complete defense between Ocheretino and Arkhangelsk.
Well, the loss of Arkhangelsk means the quick surrender of Keramik and Novokalinovo.
So there's real intrigue here.

6. In the northwestern part of Berdychi, fighting is still ongoing, as well as in the plantings in the Semyonovka area. The enemy, despite the collapse of his flanks, continues to resist here.

PS. We continue to experiment with online maps from the NPO Dvina ( https://t.me/npodvina ).
The original version is here ( https://t.me/boris_rozhin/121300 ).
Write what to remove/add, what to improve or correct.

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/9117266.html

Assault on Krasnogorovka. 04/24/2024
April 25, 20:22



Assault on Krasnogorovka 04/24/2024

(Video at link.)

Large video ( https://t.me/Sladkov_plus/10339 ) of the assault actions of tankers of the 5th brigade, who fly into Krasnogorovka at full speed with the participation of “Tsar Mangal”, who was blown up by a mine and was evacuated for repairs. The landing force on a tank and infantry fighting vehicle was able to make its way to the Fireproof Plant, where yesterday it gained a foothold, hung a flag and began clearing the adjacent buildings. All this is accompanied by active fire from our artillery and tanks, as well as return fire from the enemy.
Fires and multiple arrivals, including cluster munitions, are visible in the city. The stormtroopers walked into the very fire.

PS, Novobakhmutovka and Solovyevo were also liberated today.



https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/9116990.html

Belorussian Front
April 25, 16:30



Belorussian Front

1. The head of the KGB of Belarus reported that an attempt to attack Minsk with drones from the territory of Lithuania was prevented. We can expect further provocations on the borders with NATO countries.

2. Lukashenko said that NATO has plans to seize the Kobrin region of Belarus with the help of trained militants who should capture Kobrin, proclaim Zmagar power there and call in NATO troops there.
The militants are undergoing training in Ukraine and NATO countries. They are trying to create terrorist cells inside Belarus.

3. There are no plans to carry out mobilization on the territory of Belarus yet. Nevertheless, work on strengthening the Armed Forces of Belarus is in full swing.

4. Dozens of nuclear warheads have already been deployed on the territory of Belarus. The missiles were supplied at Lukashenko’s personal request.

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/9116634.html

About the transfer of F-16 to Ukraine
April 26, 11:46



On the transfer of F-16 to Ukraine.

The welders received information that the F-16s would be transferred to the 30th tactical aviation brigade of Ukraine and the 114th tactical aviation brigade of Ukraine.

3 F-16AM fighters with tail numbers J-010, J-019, J-366 and 2 F-16BMs with tail numbers J-064 and J-210 arrived at the Romanian 86th air base “Lieutenant George Mokornice”.
The aircraft are intended for use by the European F-16 Training Center.
The center was created as a result of cooperation between Romania and the Netherlands in partnership with the intention of transferring 5 fighter jets to Lockheed Martin with the support of Denmark.

All five fighters are relatively new:

the F-16AM J-010 built in 1991;
F-16AM J-019 built in 1991;
F-16 AM J-366 built in 1988;
F-16BM J-064 built in 1988;
F-16BM J-210 built in 1986.

https://t.me/svarschiki - zinc

Estimated delivery dates - third quarter of 2024.

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/9117774.html

Google Translator

[blindpig]

War calculations
POSTED BY @NSANZO ⋅ 04/27/2024



If Russia wins in Ukraine, the Baltic countries, Moldova, Poland or Finland could be next, it has spread through the European press in this political stage that Donald Tusk has described as “pre-war”, in which the United Kingdom announces that it will put its military industry in war mode, in which the Minister of Defense of Spain defends in a parliamentary debate that increasing military spending is investing in peace and in which any mention of the need for diplomacy is taken practically as an insult. “The alliance must reflect on its role, stop blaming and take effective practical measures to politically resolve the crisis,” said the spokesperson for China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs yesterday after the visit of Antony Blinken, who has insisted on accusing China to actively support Russia and, like its European partners, demands that Beijing support Ukraine and threatens sanctions if collaboration with Moscow continues. The Chinese proposal to seek a diplomatic solution, an idea that it shares with a large part of the Global South, which has also not joined the sanctions against the Russian Federation, contrasts with the European and North American will to continue fighting against Russia until the last Ukrainian soldier. Contrasting with this European and American warmongering fervor are the data collected by Ukrainian sociology, which shows a significant drop in opinion favorable to the struggle until final victory. What was left of the nationalist wave that wanted to battle for every town and every street to raise the blue and yellow flag again over Donetsk, Sevastopol or Yalta?

With the political route stifled by the false perception of a close victory and by the predisposition of external actors to sustain the conflict, the war has become a reality perceived very differently on the ground and from a distance. Although the Western press has wanted to highlight the epic of the struggle, praise the gestures of support for the population fleeing the war - in the right direction, without stopping to think about those who have fled to the east for a decade - and encourage the defeat of Russian imperialism, the authoritarianism of the Kremlin or directly President Putin, on the front, war is something much more mundane.

The battle for Ocheretino, in reality the fight to maintain the front west of Avdeevka, is showing all the miseries of this war, an image very far from the calculations made in distant offices and press offices that understand that the sum of resources and the design of the plans will determine the development of the fight and the war in general. The public optimism of the President's Office following the approval of new American financing, for example, contrasts with the reports that these days are coming, not only from Russian sources, from the Donbass front.

Three articles published throughout this week perfectly illustrate the current situation, a moment in which Russian troops have the initiative and are slowly advancing in a particularly sensitive sector for Ukraine. Hoping that the arrival of more weapons and ammunition will change the situation, kyiv's troops see how Russia has not only managed to move the front west of Avdeevka and advance on Berdichi or Ocheretino, but is also approaching dangerously close to Pokrovsk , the old Krasnoarmeisk, where death came at the hands of the Praviy Sektor on the day of the referendum on May 11, 2014. It is there where Ukraine concentrates its logistical and operational center of Yuzhnodonetsk, the southern front of the capital of the DPR, Absolutely strategic for both parties.

In the first of the articles, AP implicitly confirms the extreme situation that Ukrainian troops are experiencing in the surroundings of Ocheretino. “Ukraine withdraws the Abrams delivered by the United States from the front lines due to the threat of Russian drones,” the outlet writes. “The United States agreed to send 31 Abrams to Ukraine in January 2023 after an aggressive multi-month campaign by kyiv, which argued that the tanks, worth about $10 million each, were vital to its ability to break through Russian lines. ”recalls the article. Together with the German Leopards, which have already suffered the news punishment of seeing themselves defeated at the front, destroyed, burned and captured by Russian troops, the Abrams were going to make the defense of Zaporozhie impossible for Russia. What remained of the inevitable Russian defeat and the massive superiority of Western weapons?

“Since then, the front has changed substantially,” the AP justifies , adding that it has been “notably due to the extensive use of surveillance and attack drones. "These weapons have made it more difficult for Ukraine to protect tanks when they are quickly detected and hunted by Russian drones or artillery." What happened to the Russian military weakness, to the inability of the Russian industry to produce the war material necessary to provide war material without access to Western chips and materials, or to the technological delay that would represent an impossible burden to overcome?

From a point of view much closer to the front, the second article refers directly to that area in which the American Abrams have operated until now. In Forbes , David Ax describes the serious situation caused by the Russian irruption in Ocheretino, which occurred at the moment when, according to the journalist, Moscow troops took advantage of the rotation of divisions and, withdrew a better prepared brigade " "They were about to break the front." Battered by casualties and blamed for the situation by a whole series of articles and media outlets, the 115th Brigade has been the most mentioned this week. It is even said that she abandoned her positions, fleeing before the Russian advance. According to Ax, who prefers not to mention the good intelligence information that Russia must have had to know when the rotation was going to take place, it was the withdrawal of the 47th Brigade that made possible a Russian advance that was prevented - in reality it was not, for his quick return. In other words, Ax's version is that, faced with the incapacity of the 115th, the 47th Brigade returned to the front to save the situation. Created for the Zaporozhie counteroffensive, the brigade was to enter the battle after the breakup of the front to capture Melitopol, the key to Crimea. Instead, the group was sent to try to stop the Russian advance at Avdeevka and now west of the city. Everything indicates that, for the second time, what is considered one of the best prepared brigades and equipped with Western weapons such as the famous Abrams, has been defeated by Russian troops. What remained of the superiority of Ukrainian troops and Western training compared to Russian or Soviet training?

For Ax, the problems shown by the 115th Brigade are not unique but systemic, both in the lack of weapons and preparation. Showing a serious situation, the article's optimism is based on two arguments: the prompt arrival of American weapons and the presence of the 47th. That brigade is precisely the center of the third article, in which El País states that “Ukraine's star regiment remains low due to the lack of weapons and its own mistakes.” In it, Cristian Segura states that “there are only three of the 11 armored infantry transport vehicles that they had in 2023. And of the three, some are being repaired because the starting system stopped working.” Like the Abrams, the Bradleys have not been the protection for Ukraine that the propaganda of the President's Office promised. “Our commanders had too many expectations and poor predictions about our potential when the counteroffensive began,” says a soldier quoted in the article, referring to the failed strategy of sending large armored columns through the open fields of Zaporozhie, where they quickly became trapped in the fields of mines and under Russian artillery fire. The failure, as personal as it is foreign, stems from underestimating Russian defense capabilities, something of which the brigade commanders, Zaluzhny, Syrsky and their Pentagon advisors are so guilty. “I know of a company with 80 soldiers that suffered 65 casualties in one week,” says one of the soldiers cited by Segura. What became of the massive Russian casualties compared to the few suffered by Ukraine, whose priority was, supposedly, protecting the lives of soldiers?

“If we focus so much on the 47th Brigade it is because it is famous, but its problems are reproduced in the rest of the army,” adds another of the soldiers cited by El País . Throughout the article, the failure of the weapons that were going to be miraculous is highlighted. “The usefulness of the Leopards on the front is now zero, they don't last,” says Fénix , another member of the Brigade. The same happens with the Abrams, the Bradley and even the M-777, which “today have taken a backseat, says Fenix , because they are not self-propelled howitzers and operations with them last too long in the face of the Russian aerial threat.” The experience has made the soldier reach a conclusion that, just a year ago, would have been ridiculed. "I have spoken with a thousand soldiers on this front and my conclusion is that NATO's military theory is useless if you do not combine it with the Soviet one, which is the Russian one." What happened to the superiority of the Atlantic Alliance doctrine over the outdated and immobile Soviet doctrine?

The front continues to advance slowly to the west and while the Ukrainian troops anxiously await American weapons and ammunition, the Russians try to move the front as far away from Avdeevka as possible, bringing it as close as possible to Krasnoarmeisk, thus threatening the entire defense of southern Donetsk in a hand-to-hand battle in which, until now, Russian resources have been superior to Ukrainian ones both in personnel, maneuverability and effectiveness of their weapons. It is difficult to imagine that the arrival of American ammunition and weapons will change the terms in this battle southwest of the capital of Donbass that has so upset Ukrainian calculations.

https://slavyangrad.es/2024/04/27/calcu ... la-guerra/

Google Translator

******

From Cassad's Telegram account:

Colonelcassad
Summary of the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation on the progress of the special military operation as of April 26, 2024

- Units of the West group of forces occupied more advantageous positions and inflicted fire damage on the personnel and equipment of the 3rd assault brigade of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the area of ​​​​the populated area Borovaya, Kharkov region. In addition, they repelled a counterattack by the assault group of the 408th separate rifle battalion of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the area of ​​the village of Terny, Donetsk People's Republic.

The enemy lost: up to 20 military personnel and two pickup trucks. During the counter-battery fight, the following were hit: a 152 mm D-20 gun, a 122 mm D-30 howitzer, a 122 mm Gvozdika self-propelled artillery mount, as well as a US-made AN/TPQ-36 counter-battery radar.

— Units of the “Southern” group of forces improved the situation along the front line and defeated the formations of the 5th assault, 41st mechanized, 79th airborne assault, 46th airmobile brigades of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the areas of the settlements of Maksimilyanovka, Katerynivka, Paraskovievka, Chasov Yar, Stupochki, Konstantinovka and Krasnohorivka of the Donetsk People's Republic.

An attack by an assault group of the 10th separate motorized infantry battalion of the Ukrainian Armed Forces was repelled in the area of ​​the settlement of Nevelskoye, Donetsk People's Republic.

The enemy's losses amounted to: up to 430 military personnel, two armored combat vehicles, six vehicles, as well as a control center for unmanned aerial vehicles.

During counter-battery warfare, the following were hit: a 152 mm D-20 howitzer, a 122 mm D-30 gun, a 105 mm towed howitzer M102 made in the USA, two Enclave electronic warfare stations, a counter-battery counter-battery radar station made in the USA AN/TPQ-50 and four field ammunition warehouse.

— Units of the “Center” group of troops through active actions improved the tactical situation and defeated the manpower and equipment of the 59th motorized infantry, 23rd, 115th mechanized brigades of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the areas of the settlements of Novoaleksandrovka, Karlovka, Novgorodskoye and Arkhangelskoye of the Donetsk People’s Republic.

In addition, they repelled eight counterattacks by assault groups of the 25th Airborne, 68th, 71st Jaeger, 142nd Infantry, 24th and 100th Mechanized Brigades of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the areas of the settlements of Novokalinovo, Shumy, Berdychi, Semyonovka , Ocheretino and Netaylovo, Donetsk People's Republic.

The Ukrainian Armed Forces lost: up to 415 military personnel, an infantry fighting vehicle, eight armored personnel carriers, 13 armored combat vehicles, three 122 mm D-30 howitzers.

— Units of the Vostok group of forces occupied more advantageous positions and inflicted fire on the formations of the 58th motorized infantry brigade of the Ukrainian Armed Forces and the 1st separate brigade of the National Guard of Ukraine in the area of ​​the village of Urozhaynoye, Donetsk People’s Republic.

The losses of the Armed Forces of Ukraine amounted to: up to 105 military personnel, three vehicles, as well as two 155 mm M777 howitzers made in the USA.

— During the course of 24 hours, units of the Dnepr group of troops inflicted fire on the personnel and equipment of the 117th mechanized brigade of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, the 121st and 126th military defense brigades in the areas of the settlements of Novodanilovka, Zaporozhye region, Respublikanets and Chervony Mayak, Kherson region.

The enemy lost: up to 35 military personnel, two vehicles, a 155 mm FH-70 howitzer made in the UK, three 155 mm M777 guns made in the USA, a 122 mm D-30 howitzer, a 105 mm towed howitzer M102 made in the USA.

Operational-tactical aviation, missile forces and artillery hit a train with Western weapons and military equipment in the area of ​​the settlement of Udachnoye, Donetsk People's Republic, personnel and equipment of the 67th mechanized brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine at the railway loading station in the area of ​​​​the settlement of Balakleya, Kharkov region, as well as manpower and equipment of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in 112 districts.

During the day, air defense systems shot down 193 Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicles, two rockets from the Vilkha multiple launch rocket system, and three Hammer aircraft guided bombs made in France.

https://t.me/s/boris_rozhin

Google Translator

****



Ukraine war funding and failed Russian sanctions

Originally published: LA Progressive on April 24, 2024 by Jack Rasmus (more by LA Progressive) | (Posted Apr 26, 2024)

This past weekend, April 20, 2024 the U.S. House of Representatives passed a bill to provide Ukraine with another $61 billion in aid. The measure quickly passed the Senate and almost immediately signed into law by President Biden.

The funds, however, will make little difference to the outcome of the war on the ground as it appears most of the military hardware funded by the $61 billion has already been produced and much of it already shipped. Perhaps no more than $10 billion in additional new weapons and equipment will result from the latest $61 billion passed by Congress.

Subject to revision, initial reports of the composition of the $61 billion indicate $23.2 billion of it will go to pay U.S. arms producers for weapons that have already been produced and delivered to Ukraine. Another $13.8 billion is earmarked to replace weapons from U.S. military stocks that have been produced and are in the process of being shipped—but haven’t as yet—or are additional weapons still to be produced. The breakdown of this latter $13.8 amount is not yet clear in the initial reports. One might generously guess perhaps $10 billion at most represents weapons not yet produced, while $25-$30 billion represents weapons already shipped to Ukraine or in the current shipment pipeline.

In total, therefore, weapons already delivered to Ukraine, awaiting shipment, or yet to be produced amount to approximately $37 billion.

The remainder of the $61 billion includes $7.8 billion for financial assistance to Ukraine to pay for salaries of government employees through 2024. An additional $11.3 billion to finance current Pentagon operations in Ukraine—which sounds suspiciously like pay for U.S. advisors, mercenaries, special ops, and U.S. forces operating equipment like radars, advanced Patriot missile systems, etc. on the ground. Another $4.7 billion is for miscellaneous expenses, whatever that is.

In other words, only $13.8 billion of the $61 billion is for weapons Ukraine doesn’t already have!

And that $13.8 billion is all Ukraine will likely get in new weapons funding for the rest of 2024! Like the $23 billion already in theater, that will likely be burned up in a couple of weeks this summer once Russia’s coming major offensive—its largest of the war—is launched in late May or early June. So what does the U.S. do in order to continue to fund Ukraine’s economy, government and military efforts this fall and thereafter?

In other words, what’s the Biden/NATO strategy for aiding Ukraine, militarily and economically, after the $37 billion is expended by late this summer? Where’s the money to come from?

To understand how the U.S./NATO plan to fund subsequent weapons production for Ukraine in late 2024 and early 2025, one must consider not only the $61 billion bill but a second bill also passed by Congress this past weekend that hasn’t been given much attention in the mainstream media.

That second bill may potentially provide up to $300 billion for Ukraine from USA and its G7 allies, especially NATO allies in Europe where reportedly $260 of the $300 billion resides in Eurozone banks.

Biden/U.S. Short Term Strategy 2024
The $61 billion is clearly only a stopgap measure to try to get the Ukraine army and government funded through the summer. Beyond that, the broader Biden strategy is to keep Ukraine afloat until after the U.S. November elections. In addition to the $61 billion—which the U.S. hopes will get Ukraine through the U.S. November election (but likely won’t)—US strategy includes getting the Russians to agree to begin some kind of negotiations. The U.S. will then use the discussions to raise a demand to freeze military operations on both sides while negotiations are underway. But Biden’s ‘freeze and negotiate’ strategy is dead on arrival, since it is abundantly clear to the Russians it is basically about U.S. and NATO ‘buying time’ and Russia has already been played by that one. As the popular U.S. saying goes:

Fool me once shame on you; fool me twice shame on me.

The Russians already fell for that ‘let’s suspend fighting and negotiation ploy’ with the Minsk II treaty back in 2015-16. It agreed to halt military operations in the Donbass back then but NATO and the Ukraine government used the Minsk agreement as cover to re-build Ukraine’s military force which it thereafter used to attack the Donbass provinces. European leaders Angela Merkel of Germany and Francois Holland of France thereafter publicly admitted in 2022 that Minsk II was just to ‘buy time’.

The Russian’s were again similarly snookered at the Istanbul peace discussions held in April 2022. They were asked by NATO to show good faith in negotiations by withdrawing their forces from around Kiev, which they did. Negotiations were then broken off by Zelensky, on NATO’s strong recommendation, and Ukraine launched an offensive chasing the withdrawing Russians all the way back to the Donbass borders.

Russia is therefore extremely unlikely to fall a third time for a Biden/NATO request to ‘freeze’ military operations and negotiate again.

Biden may want to ‘buy time’ once more, but that hand’s been played twice already and the West will be (is being) told by Russia they aren’t interested in buying anything from the West and its ‘money’ no longer has any value.

Speaker Johnson’s Volte Face
The passage of the stop-gap $61 billion for Ukraine by the U.S. House of Representatives was the result of House Speaker, Johnson, doing an about face and allowing the vote on the House floor after saying he wouldn’t for weeks. There’s been much speculation in the U.S. mainstream media as to why Johnson reversed his position and allowed the Ukraine aid bill to the House floor for a vote. However, it’s not difficult to understand why he did reverse his view.

In recent weeks there was intense lobbying behind the scenes by U.S. weapons companies with key Republican committee chairmen in the House. After all, at least $37 billion in payments for weapons—both already delivered and to be delivered—was involved. Not a minor sum even for super-profitable companies like Lockheed, Raytheon, and the like. Rumors are that corporate lobbying had its desired effect on Republican committee chairs in the House, who then in turn pressured Johnson to allow the vote on the floor. The final vote in the House was 310 to 111 with 210 Democrats joining 100 Republicans to pass the measure—revealing that the core support for the U.S. Military Industrial Complex in the House of Representatives is at least three-fourths (the U.S. Senate likely even higher).

So the vote was the result of a ‘parliamentary maneuver’ in which all the Democrats crossed over to support the Republican Speaker of the House (who de factor switched parties for the moment). A minority of Republicans joined him. A slim majority of Republicans opposed the measure. Their opposition remains. Thus it is highly unlikely Congress will appropriate more funding for Ukraine for the rest of this year—even when the $61 billion for weapons and Ukraine’s government run out by this late summer.

So what happens if and when the $61 billion is exhausted well before the November elections?

A possible answer to that question lies in the passage of a second Ukraine funding measure this past weekend. The $61 billion was not the most important legislative action in the U.S. House. While most of the media commentary has been on that Ukraine aid bill, hardly anything has been said in the mainstream media about another bill that the U.S. House also passed over the weekend. This second measure has greater strategic implications for U.S. global interests than the $37 billion in actual weapons shipments for Ukraine. This second measure is HR 8038, a 184 page bill misnamed the ‘21st Century Peace Through Strength Act’ which amounted to yet another package (the 16th?) of U.S. sanctions.

Transferring Russia’s $300 Billion Assets to Ukraine
The first section of the bill arranges a procedure for the U.S. to force the sale of the China company, Tik Tok, to a consortium of U.S. financial investors, reportedly led by former U.S. Treasury Secretary under Trump, Steve Mnuchin. This is part of the expanding list of sanctions on China. Also sanctioned are China purchases of Iranian oil, as well as a host of additional sanctions on Iran itself. However the most significant measure related to sanctions on Russia.

The 21st Century Peace Through Strength Act calls for the U.S. to transfer its $5 billion share of Russia’s $300 billion of seized assets in western banks that were frozen in 2022 at the outset of the Ukraine war. It provides a procedure to hand over the $5 billion to Ukraine to further finance its war efforts! This move has been rumored and debated in the USA and Europe since the assets were seized two years ago. But now the process of actually transferring the seized funds to Ukraine has begun with the passage of this second bill by the U.S. House.

The USA’s $5 billion share in U.S. banks is just a drop in the bucket of the $300 billion. Russia could probably care less about it, i.e. a mere ‘rounding error’ in its total revenue from sale of oil, gas and other commodities. But Europe holds $260 of the $300 billion, according to European Central Bank chair, Christine LaGarde. A tidy sum which Russia has threatened to retaliate against Europe should the EU follow the U.S./Biden lead and also begin to transfer its $260 billion to Ukraine.

The U.S. bill is very clear that the transfer of the U.S.’s $5 billion is imminent. The bill requires the Biden administration to establish a ‘Ukraine Defense Fund’ into which the U.S.’s $5 billion will be deposited. If parts of the $5 billion are not in liquid asset form, the U.S. president is further authorized by the bill to liquidate those assets and deposit the proceeds in the fund as well. So the seizure and transfer of the $5 billion to Ukraine is a done deal. And when it happens a legal precedent will be made that Europe may use to follow and transfer its $260 billion.

One can expect the U.S. to pressure Europe strongly to do so. Biden is further authorized by the bill to ‘negotiate’ with Europe and other G7 partners to convince them to do the same—i.e. seize their share of the $300 billion, liquidate and then transfer the cash assets into the U.S. ‘Ukraine Defense Fund’. And to date the U.S. has been able to ‘convince’ Europe—via its control of NATO and influence over Europe’s economy and its umbrella political elites in the European Commission and European Parliament—to follow U.S. policy without too much resistance. Europe is fast becoming an economic satrapy and political dependency of the USA in recent decades, more than willing to bend in whatever policy direction the USA wants.

It is clear the seizure & redistribution to Ukraine of the $300 billion via the Ukraine Defense Fund is the means by which the U.S./NATO plan longer term to continue to finance the Ukraine war after the $61 billion runs out sometime in 2024; and certainly in 2025 and beyond. For the U.S. has no intention of ending its NATO led proxy war in Ukraine anytime soon. It is just seeking to ‘buy time’ in the interim before its November elections.

For a majority of both parties in the U.S.—Democrat and Republican—are united on continuing the war. It will matter little who wins the presidency or which party has majorities in Congress after November. Political elites on both sides of the aisle in Congress are united in pursuing the war in Ukraine—just as they are united in continuing to fund Israel as well as to continue the U.S.’s steadily expanding economic war with China. In just the past week it is obvious more U.S. sanctions on China are also coming soon, including possibly an announcements of financial sanctions on China for the first time after U.S. Secretary of State, Blinken’s, most recent visit.

Failed Russian Sanctions: Past and Future
The geopolitical objectives of the U.S. and its commitment to continuing its three wars are resulting in unintended, negative effects on the economies of the U.S. and its G7 allies, especially Germany. But those same sanctions have had little to no negative impact on Russia’s economy.

The recently passed U.S. transfer of its $5 billion share of Russia’s $300 billion will accelerate the negative consequences especially for Europe should the latter follow the U.S. lead and distribute its $260 billion share to Ukraine, which it eventually will.

As EBC chairperson, Lagarde, put it referring to the U.S. plan and legislation: “It needs to be carefully considered”. UK political leaders are already on record advocating the confiscation and transferring of Europe’s $260 billion holdings of Russian assets to Ukraine. Europe in recent years has a strong history of capitulating to U.S. economic policies and demands. It will be no different this time.

Should Europe join the USA in transferring its $260 billion share of Russian assets in European banks (most of which is in Belgium), it’s almost certain that Russia will reply similarly and seize at least an equal amount of European assets still in Russia. The Russian Parliament has officially recently said as much.

Part of the G7/NATO sanctions to date included forcing western businesses in Russia to liquidate and leave Russia. Some have done so. But many have not. Russia’s response has been to arrange the transfer of those EU companies’ assets that have left to Russian companies. This has actually stimulated the Russian economy. It resulted in Russian government subsidies—and thus government spending—to Russian companies assuming the assets, as well as additional investment by those companies after their acquisition of the departed EU companies’ assets.

In short, western sanctions measure pressuring western companies to leave Russia has backfired in its predicted result of reducing Russian government spending and business investment.

In contrast, the U.S./NATO’s fifteen or so sanctions packages to date have had little, if any, impact on Russia’s economy since the commencing of the war in February 2022. To cite just a few of the performance of Russia’s key economic indicators under the sanctions regime: (Note: all following data is from the U.S. global research source):

Russia’s GDP in the latest six months has risen between 4.9% (3rd quarter 2023) to 5.5% (4th quarter). Russia’s PMI statistics show robust expansion for both manufacturing and services during the same period while in most of the major European economies both PMI indicators are contracting. Wage growth in Russia over the six months has averaged 8.5% for both quarters (whereas in the U.S. is it less than half that and in Germany less than 1%). Russian government revenues rose from roughly 5 trillion rubles in the third quarter to 8.7 trillion in the 4th. Military expenditures are up from $69.5 billion (dollars) to $86.3 billion. Consumer spending is at record levels in the latest quarter. Russian household debt as a percent of GDP remains steady at around 22% (whereas in the USA it is 62.5%). Crude oil production and general exports continue to steadily rise. Gasoline remains at 60 cents a liter (whereas in U.S. five-six times that and in Europe more than ten times). And the unemployment rate in Russia remains steady at 2.9% (whereas in the U.S. and Europe it’s a quarter to a half higher). Interest rates and inflation are higher in Russia but that represents an economy firing on all economic cylinders and is not necessarily a negative.

In short, it’s hard to find a single statistic that shows the Russian economy has been negatively impacted by the U.S./NATO sanctions regime over the past two years. Indeed, an argument can even be made the sanctions have stimulated the Russian economy not undermined it.

The latest sanction in the form of the U.S. and G7 transfer of the $300 billion in seized Russian assets in western banks will almost for certain have a similar effect on Russia’s economy. Namely, distributing the $300 billion will result in Russian government seizure of at least an equivalent of European companies’ assets still in Russia. And that will provide funding for still further government subsidy spending benefiting Russian companies followed by more private investment.

Is the U.S. Empire Shooting Itself in the Foot?
But there is an even greater consequence to follow the U.S. and Europe’s desperate act of transferring Russia’s $300 billion in assets in western banks to Ukraine.

Western bankers, economic policymakers, and many economists alike have warned against the seizure and transfer of the $300 billion. Heads of U.S. and other central banks, CEOs of large commercial banks, and even mainstream economists like Shiller at Yale have continually warned publicly that transferring the assets will seriously undermine faith in the U.S. dollar system which is the lynchpin of the U.S. global economic empire.

What countries in the global South will now want to put (or leave) their assets in western banks, especially in Europe, if they think the assets could be seized should they disagree on policies promoted by the empire? It’s clear the U.S. has now begun to impose ‘secondary’ sanctions on countries that don’t abide by its primary sanctions on Russia. Will the U.S. also seize the assets of these ‘secondary’ countries now in western banks if they don’t go along with refusing to trade with Russia? And what about China, as the U.S. has now begun to expand its sanctions—primary and secondary—on that country as well? Watch for unprecedented financial sanctions on China that may be forthcoming following Blinken’s visit to China this week.

The U.S. does not realize this is not the 1980s. The global south has developed massively in recent decades. They are insisting on more independence and more say in the rules of the empire—without which they will simply leave now that an alternative is beginning to appear in the expansion of the BRICS countries.

Recently expanded to 10 members (all of which in the middle east and heavily oil producers), no fewer than 34 more countries have now petitioned to join the BRICS. Furthermore, it is reported that at the BRICS next conference in late 2024 an ‘alternative global financial framework’ will be announced! That will likely include some alternative currency arrangement as well as an alternative international payments system to replace the U.S. SWIFT system (by which the USA via its banks can see who is violating its sanctions). Likely forthcoming will be something to replace the U.S.-run IMF in order to ensure currency stability and an expansion of China’s Belt & Road as an alternative to the U.S. run World Bank. (Perhaps that is the real topic of Blinken’s forthcoming China visit?)

In short, the U.S. global economic empire is entering its most unstable period. And yet U.S. policy is to accelerate alternatives to it by seizing and transferring funds to Ukraine to continue the war! The blowback from the seizure and transfer will prove significant, both to U.S. and European interests. It will render past resistance to U.S. sanctions pale in comparison.

How to Crash an Empire!
History will show that U.S. geopolitical objectives and strategies in the 21st century were the single greatest cause of the decline of U.S. global economic hegemony over the last quarter century. Much of those objectives and strategies have been the work of the most economically ignorant foreign policy team in U.S. history, who are generally referred to as the Neocons.

The seizure and transfer of the $300 billion may provide a way to continue funding Ukraine in the U.S./NATO proxy war against Russia through 2024 and beyond. But the timing could not be worse for U.S./Europe imperial interests, coming on the eve of the historic BRICS conference later this year. The desperate act of seizure and transfer will only convince more countries of the global South to seek another more independent alternative by joining the BRICS, or increasingly trade with that bloc.

History shows empires rest ultimately on economic foundations. And they collapse when those underlying economic foundations fracture and then crumble.

The longer run consequence of the $300 billion transfer and the exiting of the global South from the U.S. empire can only be the decline in the use of the U.S. dollar in global transactions and as a reserve currency. That sets in motion a series of events that in turn undermine the U.S. domestic economy in turn: Less demand for the dollar results in a fall in the dollar’s value. That means less recycling of dollars back to the U.S., resulting in less purchases of U.S. Treasuries from the Federal Reserve, which in turn will require the Fed to raise long term interest rates for years to come in order to cover rising U.S. budget deficits. All this will happen to an intensifying fiscal crisis of the U.S. state rapidly deteriorating already

In other words, blowback on the U.S. economy from declining U.S. global hegemony—exacerbated by sanctions in general and seizure of countries like Russia’s assets in particular—is almost certain in the longer run, just as it will be for Europe’s economy in the even more immediate term.

But such is the economic myopia of the U.S. neocons and the incompetent political elite leadership in both parties in the USA in recent years. As that other American saying goes:

We have found the enemy and they are us!

https://mronline.org/2024/04/26/ukraine ... sanctions/

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What’s Really Behind Poland’s Interest In Deporting Ukrainian Draft-Dodgers?



ANDREW KORYBKO
APR 26, 2024

No amount of draft refugee meat that Poland or whoever else throws into the grinder will change the conflict’s military-strategic dynamics.

Polish Defense Minister Wladyslaw Kosiniak-Kamysz expressed support in an interview for Ukraine’s latest conscription-related policy of refusing consular services for draft-aged men aged 18-60. The form of assistance that Warsaw provides Kiev in returning these draft-dodgers depends on the regime, but he implied that his country might hunt down and deport them. This reading is predicated on him calling their service a “civic duty” and saying that Poles are “outraged” seeing these men hanging out in cafes.

Late last year, “WaPo Amplified The Arguments Of Ukrainian Draft Dodgers Right As Zelensky Wants More Conscripts”, which suggested some sympathy for their plight in being forced to fight. Meanwhile, this piece here from around the same time analyzed the dilemma that EU countries would face if Ukraine requested that they deport these draft-dodgers, some of whom have refugee status, while these two surveys in March and April show that mutual Polish-Ukrainian perceptions are worsening.

Accordingly, Poland could come under some foreign media pressure if it forcibly deports those Ukrainian men within its territory who Kiev calls up to serve after previously allowing them to live in the country, including as refugees. Additionally, average Ukrainians might begin to hate Poles if they interpret this move as being driven by a nationalist desire to punish them for changing the country’s demographics. The end result could be that Poland ruins its reputation in the West and Ukraine just to fuel this doomed conflict.

About that, the country’s new coalition government is liberal-globalist and thus earned applause from their fellow travelers who currently control most of the West, but some factions among the latter might strongly disagree in principle with deporting Ukrainians (including refugees) to the front. Likewise, this same government wanted to improve ties with Ukraine that soured at the end of their conservative-nationalist predecessor’s tenure, but this would only benefit the regime at the expense of its people.

“The US’ Long-Delayed Aid To Ukraine Might Prevent Its Collapse But Won’t Push Russia Back”, and no amount of draft refugee meat that Poland or whoever else throws into the grinder will change that. The military-strategic dynamics decisively favor Russia due to its victory in the “race of logistics”/“war of attrition” with NATO. It therefore wouldn’t make a difference even in the impossible event that all estimated 860,000 adult Ukrainian men living in the EU were deported to the front.

The only potential benefit to this policy is if the conservative-nationalist opposition relieves some of their pressure upon Tusk’s liberal-globalist government if he deports all Ukrainian draft-dodgers from Poland. He’d risk some foreign media pressure and further worsening average Ukrainians’ views of Poles, but he might gamble that this is worth it, especially if it’s positively spun by some of his liberal-globalist peers abroad as “solidarity with the cause” of defeating Russia. Tusk might then gain more than he’d lose.

https://korybko.substack.com/p/whats-re ... s-interest

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JAMES CARDEN: THE NEW COLD WAR’S SECOND WIND
APRIL 25, 2024 NATYLIESB
By James Carden, Landmarks Magazine (Substack), 4/3/24

[Editor’s note: this is the third installment of the Simone Weil Center’s Symposium on ‘Containment 2.0.’ The first two installments can be read here and here]

The specter of Trump II haunts the dreams of those who look back on the first Cold War and see not the terror of the Cuba Missile Crisis; the bloodletting of Vietnam; the move to DEFCON III in 1973; or the nuclear false alarms of the Carter and Reagan eras. Rather, they see a halcyon era wherein the US, led by a wise bipartisan establishment, weathered the storm thanks to the wise and patient application of the containment doctrine.

To their barely concealed dismay, they realize that the years-long 100 billion dollar plus effort at propping up an authoritarian kleptocracy centered in Kiev is indeed flailing: The money is running out, and popular (as well as political) support for the venture is on a downward trend. They see in Trump (wrongly, I happen to think) an existential threat to America’s proxy war in Ukraine and so, the administration and the US establishment are desperately trying to create a renewed sense of urgency regarding the Ukrainian war effort. Their project now needs, above all, a second wind, and reinvigoration requires invention.

Once upon a time Secretary of State Dean Acheson, whose ideological progeny now stalk the corridors of power in Joe Biden’s Washington, advised President Truman that the public case for the Truman Doctrine had to be “clearer than truth,” or, put another way, not true at all.

Having been debased by the decade-long editorship of Gideon Rose, the once august journal Foreign Affairs staggers along – a zombie from another time. But it maintains its uses to the established order. And one of its principle uses is to provide intellectual justification for the unjustifiable. It wouldn’t be the first time. By the late 1940s, the American people were exhausted and war weary. A second wind was needed and the threat of a monolithic Communist threat provided the oxygen. George F. Kennan’s 1947 “X” article in the same journal served a similar purpose for the first Cold War, not dissimilar to Winston Churchill’s anti-communist clarion call in Fulton, Missouri the year before.

Kennan was brilliant, but he was also occasionally hysterical. And cooler heads, such as Walter Lippmann, realized that the “X” strategy condemned us to an unnecessarily drawn out and dangerous Cold War. As Lippmann biographer Ronald Steele points out,

…To confront the Soviets at “every point where they show signs of encroaching” was, Lippmann charged, a “strategic monstrosity” doomed to fail. It could be attempted only by “recruiting, subsidizing, and supporting a heterogeneous array of satellites, clients, dependents, and puppets.” Propping up anticommunist regimes around the periphery of the Soviet Union would require unending American intervention.”

To Kennan’s great credit he soon came to realize that containment abetted militarization and presented militarists in government like Acheson, Paul Nitze, Frank Wisner, Allen and John Foster Dulles and many others besides, an intellectual and strategic framework to do their worst. Which they did.

The March 2024 issues of Foreign Affairs is once again playing its part – and while the dramatis personae are different, the story remains much the same. Which brings us, alas, to the article in question: “America’s New Twilight Struggle With Russia” by Max Bergmann, Michael Kimmage, Jeffrey Mankoff, and Maria Snegovaya. The first tip-off that the article’s purpose is to propagandize rather than inform is the presence of Bergmann on the byline. Bergmann, before ascending to his current perch at CSIS, worked under the shameless Clinton partisan Neera Tanden at John Podesta’s Center for American Progress where he directed a Neo-McCarthyite “Moscow Project,” one of the more unhinged products of an unhinged time.

The four (!) authors argue for the broadest possible application of the containment doctrine in the most alarmist terms (“clearer than truth”). “Kennan’s vision of containment focused primarily on Europe,” they write. “Today, post-Soviet Eurasia and the rest of the world will be more central.” [Emphasis mine].

We are further told, “Ukraine’s defense is crucial for European stability and for preventing the spread of Russian power globally.” And still more, “Containing Russia in Ukraine means keeping the line of contact as close to the Russian border as possible, constraining Russia’s expansionist tendencies.” In other words, we are supposed to believe that a carve-out of Novorossiya presages an attempt by Russia to expand globally? The authors fail to note that Russia’s 2024 defense budget, at $109 billion, is roughly ten times less than US defense expenditures and ten times less than NATO defense spending. Where are they going to expand to?Transnistria?

In the authors’ telling, Containment 2.0 will differ from the original through its steady application of American power throughout Asia. As they put it, “Any strategy for containing Russia must account for resource commitments to the Indo-Pacific and for the impact of U.S. policy on the Chinese-Russian relationship.” What they fail to acknowledge is that this has already been tried before – and the results did not redound to the benefit of the United States. The original iteration of containment, along with Paul Nitze’s militarization of it (though his authorship, in 1950, of NSC-68) set the stage for the ‘Domino theory’ which in turn begat Vietnam. I can confidently assume that at least two of the four authors are fully aware of this, but the purpose of the exercise, as I said, is propaganda not elucidation.

Withal, it never seems to occur to the authors that the war and its continuation hinge on one issue and one issue alone: NATO: No NATO, no war. Ukrainian neutrality was and remains the key to unravelling the Gordian knot. But recognizing this would require the authors to surrender their collective dream of a new Cold War in which they can play the part of architect, of grand strategist, of hero.

In the end, the New Cold War needed a second wind and Foreign Affairs answered the call.

Just like old times.

https://natyliesbaldwin.com/2024/04/jam ... cond-wind/

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How To Put It In Simpler Terms...

... regarding this thing:


The US-supplied Army Tactical Missile Systems, known as ATACMS, will allow Ukrainian forces to target Russia’s Crimean Peninsula “more effectively,” the New York Times has reported, citing senior Pentagon officials. Washington secretly sent Kiev an unspecified number of longer-range ATACMS missiles last month, US officials confirmed earlier this week, after several outlets claimed that Kiev has already begun using the new weapon against Russian targets far behind the frontlines.
Ah yes, the water is wet, the fire is hot, and Biden Administration lives vicariously through Kiev regime. Russia gives the number of new delivery of ATACMS to be around 100 and most of those will be used in a desperate attempt to damage the Crimean Bridge. This is as far as Pentagon's military competencies extend, but what you are going to do? Simple: more of 404 will be taken by Russia for creation of a buffer (or cordon sanitaire), as Peskov quoted Putin today (in Russian). So, that means a complete removal of 404 cannon fodder from the left bank of Dnepr and, possibly, some territories on the right one. Which ones? It is for the General Staff to decide. Maybe 404 can ask Pentagon to provide those oil rigs with missiles and float them on Dnepr to deter Russian Army? Great operational thinking it will be. I am sure this plan will stun Kremlin and General Staff.

<snip>

Now to a very serious situation: two lowlifes who wore the uniform of Russian Army, evidently committed atrocity by executing seven people in three of the villages in Kherson region. The shells at the places of execution matched shells which those two used, they already admitted the guilt. They have been arraigned and transferred to Military Police, the investigation is ongoing and we may know more details as times passes. Remarkably, one of them has been... imprisoned twice before: once for manufacturing and distribution of drugs and second time... for murder. Do I sense a putrid stink of Wagner? (in Russian). Now comes the second issue--this all is a belch of a liberal Criminal Code pushed through by West's agents of influence, including moratorium on death sentence, in 1990s and of the practice of organized crime group aka Wagner recruiting criminals from prisons: Prigozhin loved his own kind. But let's wait for more details. These two murderers should face a firing squad, or be hanged in one of the villages they committed this crime.

http://smoothiex12.blogspot.com/2024/04 ... terms.html

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NATO Nuclear Facilities in Poland Could Become Military Target


A view of the Kremlin, Moscow, Russia. | Photo: X/ @ChinaDaily

Published 25 April 2024

Poland has discussed with the U.S. the possibility of deploying nuclear weapons on its territory.


On Thursday, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov warned that NATO nuclear facilities, if permanently located on the Polish territory, will become a military target for Russia.

"The expansion of the practice of joint NATO nuclear missions - regardless of who becomes that country or those countries that can join those already participating in this practice - is of a purely destabilizing nature. And in fact, threatening," Ryabkov said.

He pointed out that the approach of joint nuclear missions by NATO countries near Russian borders exacerbates security threats.

"I'm not even talking about permanent deployment, which is also being hotly discussed by hotheads in Warsaw," Ryabkov denounced.

"All those politicians who are now enthusiastically discussing such a scheme in Poland and beyond, for their own reasons, must understand: shifts in this direction will not add to Poland's security, but the corresponding facilities will certainly become a target. They will be at the forefront in our military planning," he stressed.

Ryabkov referred to the ongoing discussion about deploying NATO nuclear facilities in Poland as an "evolving story." Moscow closely monitors how Warsaw addresses this topic, he said.

Polish President Andrzej Duda, in an interview with the Fakt newspaper on Monday, stated that the Polish authorities have repeatedly discussed with the United States the possibility of deploying nuclear weapons in Poland within the framework NATO's nuclear sharing arrangements and expressed readiness for it if necessary.

https://www.telesurenglish.net/news/NAT ... -0003.html

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Tank evolution
April 26, 19:25



The past and future of world tank building.

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/9118723.html

Google Translator

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Biden’s $61 billion and Kiev’s conscription crackdown… Ukrainians are fleeing the NATO bloodbath, not Russia

April 26, 2024

Ukrainians aren’t fleeing from Russian aggression. They are fleeing the horrible parasitic Ukrainian regime and the bloodbath that NATO has unleashed.

This week saw U.S. President Joe Biden proclaiming the Congressional passing of $61 billion in additional military aid to Ukraine as “a good day for world peace”. Biden’s exaltation is ghoulish. The obscenity is that more Ukrainians will be sacrificed for Western imperialism and its brutal NeoNazi regime in Kiev.

The clueless, cynical Western media narrative is that a freedom-loving democratic Ukraine is bravely fighting against Russian aggression. Ukrainian men are, according to this fairytale, courageously battling to defend their country and to save the rest of Europe from Russian invasion.

That’s why the United States Congress this week passed a bill to send $61 billion in more military aid to Ukraine. President Biden had been desperately appealing to Congress to take a stand with Ukraine to defeat Russian aggression. America’s NATO allies have likewise reiterated the same nonsense mantra.

Most people who live outside the echo chamber of Western media know this depiction is total baloney, to use one of Biden’s favorite catchphrases.

The conflict in Ukraine is a U.S.-led NATO proxy war to strategically defeat Russia. The grand scheme got going after the CIA-sponsored coup in Kiev in 2014. The Kiev regime, fronted by a conman Jewish puppet president Vladimir Zelensky, is a NeoNazi dictatorship. It’s a corrupt junta where the elite like Zelensky have siphoned off billions of dollars and euros donated by Western governments courtesy of their unwitting taxpayers.

This week we saw proof of the Kiev rump reich in action when it announced that it would cut off consular services to all Ukrainian men aged 18 to 60 who are currently residing abroad.

It is estimated that since the conflict escalated in Ukraine in February 2022 nearly five million Ukrainian citizens fled to European Union states. Of these, about 20 percent – one million – are adult males.

The cutting off of consular services to any citizen by its government is an unprecedented drastic action. That alone should alert observers that the “government” in question is far from normal. Laughably, the Western media reported the banishing of consular services by the Zelensky regime as if it were somehow banal. In other words, they conveniently covered up for what is a disgraceful violation of international norms.

The reason for the Ukrainian embassies’ taking such action is to force Ukrainian males abroad to declare their details and register for a new conscription drive by the Kiev regime.

Zelensky’s regime earlier this month passed into law much tougher mobilization powers to dragoon Ukrainian men into the armed services.

The new law is deeply unpopular among Ukrainian people for sound reasons. They are being sent to the frontline to be slaughtered by vastly superior Russian forces in a futile war for the NATO side.

It is estimated that 500,000 to 600,000 Ukrainian soldiers have been killed in more than two years of fighting. Millions more have been wounded and maimed. A whole generation of Ukrainian men has been destroyed at a rate that is on par with World War One-type carnage.

According to the United Nations, the civilian death toll from the conflict is around 10,000. All deaths are regrettable, but the relatively low number of collateral casualties is a testament to Russia’s efforts to avoid civilian targets. One may question, therefore, why millions of Ukrainians jumped in their cars and 4x4s to take up residence in Europe if they weren’t being targeted by Russian forces. It is also notable that most Ukrainians have gone to seek safety in Russia more than any other country in Europe. So much for Russia being an evil aggressor.

Zelensky and his NATO puppet regime make the preposterous claim that the Ukrainian military death toll is around 31,000. Of course, the real, 16-fold higher figure must be denied otherwise the Western propaganda would be shamed for the bloodbath that NATO and its regime have instigated.

If for argument’s sake, the impossibly lower figure could be believed, then the question is why is the Kiev regime so desperate to launch its recent draconian conscription. Zelensky has talked about the need to recruit up to 500,000 new soldiers. This is an implicit admission that the higher death toll of 500,000 to 600,000 is indeed accurate if such many replacements must be found.

When the Kiev regime announced its new recruitment drive earlier this month, it was followed immediately by a rush of Ukrainians to embassies across Europe to renew their documents such as passports and driving permits. The rush was because they did not want to have to return to Ukraine to renew their documents otherwise they would be subjected to forcible conscription.

Already, there are myriad reports and videos (not covered by Western media to be sure) of Ukrainian males being snatched off the streets by Kiev regime thugs for military service. Many others have gone into hiding within the country. There have been scandals about Ukrainian families being extorted by recruitment officers for thousands of dollars to spare fathers and sons. Thousands of others have risked their lives by trying to swim across rivers to neighboring countries.

It is a measure of how vindictive and callous the Kiev regime is that it is taking the extreme measure of now denying consular services to its male citizens abroad. The objective is to flush out up to one million recruits for the killing fields along the 1,000-kilometer frontline with Russia in the east of the country.

Here’s where the Western propaganda story becomes absurd. To avoid being dragged back to Ukraine, many of those living abroad are expected to renounce citizenship. If they do not have valid passports and cannot renew their documents they become stateless and illegal. That means hundreds of thousands of Ukrainians will by necessity have to claim political asylum in European Union states. In short, their predicament is that they cannot return to their home country out of fear of persecution.

How ridiculous is that? The United States and its European vassals have donated up to $300 billion in public money to prop up a regime whose own citizens are fleeing in fear.

The latest splurge of $61 billion by the United States will not help Ukraine win the NATO-orchestrated proxy war against Russia. The largesse will merely prolong the agony of Ukraine and prop up the corrupt NeoNazi regime. Already, up to half a million Ukrainian soldiers have been slaughtered in a futile criminal war for Western imperialist interests. Many independent military analysts agree that the critical shortage is Ukrainian manpower.

Zelensky and his henchmen are trying to squeeze more bodies into the abattoir. Washington and the European minions are feeding the military profiteering killing machine in tandem with the Kiev regime’s manhunt for new cannon fodder.

It’s heinous and diabolical. It’s also shockingly flagrant – unless that is, you rely on Western media for your “information”.

The truth is the Western public is supporting a regime that even its citizens are cowering in fear of. It’s a double whammy. The West is subsidizing a regime that is needlessly killing its people instead of engaging in peaceful diplomacy with Russia to end this war.

And millions of Ukrainians are living in European countries rent-free placing huge strains on housing and services for European citizens. All because Uncle Sam and European lapdogs are pushing a criminal proxy war.

Ukrainians aren’t fleeing from Russian aggression. They are fleeing the horrible parasitic Ukrainian regime and the bloodbath that NATO has unleashed.

https://strategic-culture.su/news/2024/ ... ot-russia/