Footnotes from the Ukrainian "Crisis"; New High-Points in Cynicism Part V

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Re: Footnotes from the Ukrainian "Crisis"; New High-Points in Cynicism Part V

Post by blindpig » Tue Nov 14, 2023 12:32 pm

war proposal

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Since its beginning, but with more intensity since the Russian military intervention, the Ukrainian conflict has been characterized by containing three different but deeply interrelated aspects: an internal conflict between nationalist Ukraine and that which did not accept the irregular change of Government in February 2014. , a political aspect in the form of the confrontation between Kiev and Moscow that began on Maidan and broke out in Crimea and a geopolitical aspect of proxy war between Russia and the West that has been played out in the last decade on Ukrainian territory. The latter is directly linked to Ukraine's insistence on access to NATO and, above all, to the possibility that a country of Ukraine's size, population and military capacity could be used as a base against Moscow.

The Atlanticist ambition has accompanied the Ukrainian discourse since 2014 as a complement to the European path, with NATO and the EU understood as two sides of the same coin. Poroshenko introduced those Euro-Atlantic aspirations into the Ukrainian Constitution and neither his nor Zelensky's administrations have ever renounced that adherence even in the toughest times. Neutrality, in practice the renunciation of the desire to access NATO, was one of the bases of the political negotiation between Russia and Ukraine in the first weeks after the Russian invasion, an agreement that was never forged precisely because of what that Kiev had to resign. Russia then offered support for accession to the European Union, security guarantees for all territories except Donbass and Crimea in exchange for renunciation of NATO and the end of the war.

The offer was unacceptable for Ukraine not only because of the prospect of loss of territory, but also because of the commitment to neutrality, something equally unacceptable for kyiv. Resignation from NATO was never an option and the security guarantees for those certain territories implied the implicit renunciation of Donbass and Crimea, the two territories whose population had openly rejected the Ukraine born from the Maidan victory.

The similarities with that proposal to apply certain measures only to the territories under Ukrainian control have caused some confusion in the plan presented last weekend by Anders Fogh Rasmussen, former NATO secretary general and Kiev lobbyist. The news was picked up on Saturday by the British newspaper The Guardian , which presents Ukraine's tactics for the coming months, specifically in preparation for the next NATO summit. Despite the high expectations that Volodymyr Zelensky had created for this year's summit, Ukraine got promises for the future, but no clear timetable. The reluctance of countries as important as the United States and Germany to offer Kiev a specific moment of accession caused Ukraine to only receive the commitment of future accession, when conditions allow it. Article V of the Alliance explains these reluctance: in the event of an attack on a Member State, NATO would come to its support. Accepting a state at war would automatically imply the entry of NATO into that war, something that the United States has demonstrated to be the final red line. Despite Ukraine's attempts, Washington has always remained firm in its position of fighting to the last Ukrainian, but without directly participating in the war against Russia.

Rasmussen's proposal includes, in a certain way, the idea of ​​security guarantees for certain territories, but twists it until it becomes the complete opposite. The Russian offer was guarantees of security and neutrality in exchange for the end of the war. Rasmussen's, on the contrary, implies the arrival of NATO to the front line. However, the misleading headline, “Former NATO Secretary Proposes that Ukraine Unite Without Russian-Occupied Territories,” has misled people like Dmitry Medvedev, who has seen in it the beginning of acceptance of the loss of the territories. “Under the cover of the Middle East carnage, some current and former NATO officials are carefully distributing new ideas about Ukraine. How we need to accept it in the Alliance, but without Crimea or Donbass . So, from their point of view, those territories are no longer part of Ukraine,” he wrote on Sunday.

The proposal has not only confused the former Russian president, but people as important in Ukrainian politics as Mijailo Podolyak have seen it as a Russian maneuver. The advisor to the President's Office appears not to have understood the terms or that this tactic has been prepared by Andiy Ermak, Zelensky's right-hand man.

The proposal that Rasmussen will defend on behalf of Ukraine as an element of pressure until the next NATO summit is held does not imply, as the former Secretary General of NATO has insisted, freezing the conflict. Nor is it about recognizing the loss of territories to settle for the consolation price of access to the Alliance, but about involving it in the war. The model is not that of the Russian offer at the Istanbul summit with definitive borders but rather Germany's accession in 1955, which did not include the territories that then made up the German Democratic Republic. History shows that this was not a definitive border and that NATO would take over those territories as soon as they became available. “It is time to take the next step and extend an invitation for Ukraine to join NATO. We need a new European security architecture in which Ukraine is at the heart of NATO,” said Rasmussen, portraying a desire for peace that is, in reality, quite the opposite.

Ermak's objective is transparent: to bring the NATO border to the front line in order to demand the activation of the collective defense clause against any Russian attack on the right bank of the Dnieper or the Oskol. “The absolute credibility of Article V guarantees would deter Russia from carrying out attacks within Ukrainian territory within NATO and that would free up Ukrainian forces to go to the front,” Rasmussen specified. Ukraine would not have to defend kyiv or other cities or the Belarusian border and could concentrate on regaining territories in the south and east. In case there was any doubt, Rasmussen added that “to make Article V credible, a clear message would have to be sent to Russia that any violation of NATO territory would be met with a response.”

Ermak's proposal, presented as a new security architecture, seeks only to directly involve NATO in the war, creating a 700-kilometer front line between the Alliance and the Russian Federation in conditions of war, a border very different from the that the blocs maintained between the two Germanys during the Cold War. The stance of the United States, which has so far refused to fight in the war, indicates that the Ukrainian offer lacks realism under current conditions. Ukraine, in whole or in part, will not enter NATO during the war as long as the official position is to fight Russia through the Ukrainian proxy. However, the idea is not due to fear of losing assistance from the West or the willingness to give up part of the territories in exchange for joining NATO, but quite the opposite. Ukraine remains firm in its stance of continuing the war until final victory, one for which it is aware that it will require greater support from its

https://slavyangrad.es/2023/11/14/propuesta-de-guerra/

Google Translator

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What's happening in the NWO zone: chronicle for November 13
November 13, 2023
Rybar

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In the Soledar direction , the Russian Armed Forces are developing an offensive on the southern flank of Bakhmut and increasingly pushing back the enemy near Kleshcheevka . In addition, Russian military personnel managed to expand the zone of control in the north, in the area of ​​the Berkhovsky reservoir .

In the Kherson direction, after several days of relative calm, the Ukrainian Armed Forces again tried to expand the zone of control at Krynoki . Most likely, the enemy intends to reach the road from Aleshki to Novaya Kakhovka in order to disrupt Russian supplies in this area.

In the Avdeevsky sector, the Russian Armed Forces improved their tactical position near Stepovoy ( Petrovsky ) in the north. On the southern flank, fierce fighting is taking place in the area of ​​the Donetsk filtration station and the Vinogradniki station.

What happened to Ukrainian substations after the strikes by the Russian Armed Forces?

On the eve of the winter period and the expected new attacks on the Ukrainian energy infrastructure, we decided to make a new analysis on this topic. In the summer, when we examined the consequences of Russian attacks on the Ukrainian economy, we identified (based on indirect signs of repair work) approximate damage that Ukrainian utility workers still have to compensate. Then the planned removal of substation equipment for repairs was complicated by the lack of reserve equipment - a large amount was destroyed by massive strikes by Russian troops against Ukrainian energy infrastructure facilities, the last of which was on March 9, 2023.

However, over the past months, we have been able to analyze photographs of the six largest Ukrainian 750 kV substations that were hit, and have already reliably established the nature of the damage. The result exceeded our expectations. Four substations are almost completely out of order and can be used to a limited extent only for the transit of electricity, and two more operate in reduced power mode.

The following objects of the Ukrainian energy system were hit: Substation Zapadnoukrainskaya 750, Substation Kievskaya 750, Substation Vinnytsia 750, Substation Dneprovskaya 750, Substation Zaporozhskaya 750 and Substation Severoukrainskaya 750. Summarizing our article, we can say that most substations, with the exception of Substation Zapadnoukrainskaya 750, have been withdrawn out of service. The greatest damage was sustained by the Vinnitskaya 750 substation and the Dneprovskaya 750 substation. Note that the relative stability of the Ukrainian energy system is largely due to the absence of attacks on the outdoor switchgear of the Rivne, Khmelnytsky and South Ukrainian nuclear power plants. Now we need to add the outdoor switchgear of the Chernobyl nuclear power plant to this list.

You can find out in more detail how we figured all this out and what results we actually managed to achieve with missile strikes on the Ukrainian energy system in our other article .

The situation on the front line and combat operations

The creeping offensive of the Russian Armed Forces continues in the Starobelsky direction . Ukrainian formations, in turn, made several unsuccessful attempts to counterattack with assault groups in the Timkovka area, as well as in the forests near Kremennaya .

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In the Soledar direction, after almost several months of active attempts by the enemy to push through the lines of the Russian Armed Forces at Bakhmut and take the city into a semi-encirclement, the capabilities of the Ukrainian Armed Forces have decreased. Now Ukrainian forces have actually gone on the defensive, while Russian troops, on the contrary, are attacking.

For five to seven days, units of the Russian Army storm the positions of the Ukrainian Armed Forces near the railway near Kleshcheevka . During intense fighting, Russian troops managed to cross the railway track and approach the outskirts of the village. The offensive of the Russian Armed Forces forced the Ukrainian forces to actually retreat from the populated area and occupy more advantageous positions on the adjacent heights. Kleshcheevka itself has essentially moved back into the gray zone, since its location in the lowlands makes its defense pointless. At this stage, to achieve success, military personnel of the RF Armed Forces need to achieve control over heights. Only by gaining a foothold there will it be possible to continue the attack on other directions, including Andreevka and Krasnoe .

On the northern flank, last week the Ukrainian Armed Forces tried to advance again along the railway to Berkhovka , but without success. Russian paratroopers repulsed the attack and launched a counteroffensive, managing to advance to a depth of 500 meters. Against this background, Ukrainian forces began to intensively equip a fortified area at the “40 km” platform south of the Berkhovskoe reservoir. At the same time, assault detachments of the 77th brigade are conducting forays in the Khromovo direction .

Despite the enemy’s local attempts to attack the positions of the Russian Armed Forces near Bakhmut , their intensity has noticeably decreased compared to the summer and early autumn. The number of used artillery shells has significantly decreased, the replenishment of which is not as fast as before. This situation indicates that the resources of the Ukrainian Armed Forces have been exhausted during repeated attacks in order to achieve coverage of Bakhmut. Even the example of the 77th airmobile brigade of the Airborne Forces of Ukraine is indicative: the “elite” formation, due to losses and lack of people, is replenished at the expense of terrorist defense units, which are hardly trained in the same way as the paratroopers. In addition, the active advance of the Russian Army near Avdeevka forced the Ukrainian command to react by removing part of the forces from near Bakhmut and exposing the forward lines. And this opens up space for an attack by the Russian Armed Forces and expansion of the zone of control in this area.


On the northern flank of the Avdeevsky sector, Russian troops are developing an offensive in the Stepovoye ( Petrovsky ) area. Meanwhile, on the southern flank, fierce fighting is taking place in the Vinogradniki gardening community , where the Russian Armed Forces are gradually pushing through the enemy’s defenses.


There are no changes in the Orekhovsky sector : the enemy periodically attacks in the direction of Rabotino and Verbovoy , but the intensity of hostilities has decreased. This is due to worsening weather and softening of the soil, which makes it difficult for armored vehicles to move.

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In the Kherson direction, for the last two days the command of the Katran group of troops has been rotating forward units operating in Krynki . Due to intense fire from Russian artillery, the Ukrainian Navy's assault troops thinned out, forcing the enemy to reinforce the bridgehead with additional forces.

Yesterday night and morning, combined groups of 35, 36 and 38 marine brigades were transferred to the central part of Krynki under the cover of artillery and mortars. Two detachments of the 36th brigade were sent to the forest adjacent to the village. After completing the rotation, Ukrainian units began moving in the southern, western and eastern directions in landings, where they were able to make little progress thanks to support from the right bank.

In advance of the attack, barrel and rocket artillery guns were deployed to the Tyaginka-Lvovo line, and mortar batteries were deployed on Frolov Island , firing up to 100 meters into the depth of the assault groups' movement. Artillery strikes stopped further enemy movement, and the Ukrainian marines consolidated their position on the occupied lines. On the night of November 13, additional units of the 38th brigade, as well as sniper pairs, arrived in Krynki.

Apparently, Ukrainian units are planning to expand the zone of control in the forest, which is quite reasonable. Under the cover of landings, it is much more convenient to equip strong points for developing an offensive on the left bank. And then the command of the Katran group of troops, looking at the attack areas, intends to reach the road from Aleshki to Novaya Kakhovka. In this situation, this could seriously complicate the supply of the Russian Armed Forces along the left bank of the Dnieper .

In addition, today there was a funny pun with the canceled news about the regrouping east of the Dnieper. This, unfortunately, is evidence of the decline of Russian journalism. Young girls and boys writers from ChatGPT do not understand the agenda and put news from a year ago on the site, then saying “oh, I got it mixed up.” And it turns out that, alas, there is no middle ground. At the top sit mastodons who are opposed to new technologies and modern trends in working with information. And below are the tech-priests from neural networks and TikTok who don’t understand the current situation (because they don’t need it). Of course, this is not a 100% summary of the situation. But 70% is correct.

Shelling of rear areas and residential areas
Intensity of shelling of front-line territories on November 6-12, 2023


The Ukrainian Armed Forces continue shelling Russian territory: over the past week, the territories of the Belgorod , Donetsk and Kherson regions were most often under enemy fire . At the same time, a large number of attacks on the left bank of the Dnieper , as well as attacks by the Ukrainian Armed Forces on the Donetsk agglomeration , are associated with active military operations in these directions. There were also isolated acts of enemy aggression directed at regions remote from the front line.

The Ukrainian Armed Forces made several attempts to attack Russian targets in the territories of Orlovka , Tula and Smolensk regions , as well as in the Moscow region . In addition, the enemy carried out sabotage activities in the Ryazan region : at the Dyagilevo station , as a result of the intervention of unauthorized persons, 19 cars with mineral fertilizers derailed.

Among the border regions, settlements in the Belgorod region were most often under enemy fire . More than 700 rounds were fired at the subject , but no casualties were reported. There were also occasional shelling of individual settlements in the Bryansk and Kursk regions .

In addition, the Ukrainian Armed Forces continued to attack the Lugansk and Donetsk People's Republics . This Sunday, the enemy fired cluster munitions at the Central City Hospital in the city of Kremennaya in the LPR . In the DPR, the largest number of arrivals was recorded in the capital of the region: on November 7, the Ukrainian Armed Forces fired several missiles from the HIMARS MLRS at the Voroshilovsky district , as a result of which at least six people were killed and more than twenty were injured. In total, more than 800 shells were fired at the DPR .

Ukrainian formations did not stop regular shelling of the left bank of the Kherson region : about 500 shells were recorded arriving at populated areas, at least three dead and 16 wounded were reported. Thus, as a result of a missile landing on the private sector of Skadovsk , 11 people were injured.

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Today the enemy shelled the village of Novenkoye , Suzemsky district, Bryansk region : civilian buildings were damaged, no casualties.

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In addition, the Ukrainian Armed Forces again attacked the Kursk region with drones . In the village of Popovo-Lezhachi, the enemy dropped an explosive device: one person received moderate injuries. Towards evening, a Ukrainian UAV carried out a similar attack on the village of Gornal , Sudzhansky district: another person was wounded, who was quickly taken to the hospital.

A video with footage of the “infiltration” of the DRG of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the Shebekinsky district of the Belgorod region is being distributed online . It was alleged that the enemy was driving a UAZ with “Z” symbols. As it turned out, the video was fake. The governor of the region, Vyacheslav Gladkov, issued a refutation of this information.

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Ukrainian formations intensified shelling of the Donetsk People's Republic . In Donetsk , a civilian received at the mine named after. Skochinsky, another person was seriously injured when he was blown up by a Lepestok mine . The Ukrainian Armed Forces also attacked the village of Koloski with a drone, resulting in the death of a young man born in 1996. In addition, Gorlovka , Makeevka and Yasinovatsky district came under attack .

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The enemy again fired at the Kherson region . This time, the following were under fire from the Ukrainian Armed Forces: Gola Pristan , Kakhovka , Krynki , Novaya Kakhovka , Peschanivka , Podstepnoe and Staraya Zburevka . The Russian Ministry of Defense reported the downing of Ukrainian UAVs in the area of ​​​​the settlement of New Camps . In addition, emergency services in the region report the death of one civilian as a result of yesterday's shelling of the city of Alyoshki .

Political events
A few more words about the energy infrastructure of Ukraine


In addition to the situation with the Ukrainian power grid, it is worth adding that GE Vernova is currently preparing to transfer a 110 kV experimental mobile substation to Singapore by August next year at a cost of about $10 million. Taking into account this fact, as well as previous reports from the Ukrainian side, we can conclude that during the winter attacks by Russian troops on the Ukrainian energy system, the 110 kV networks suffered the most , and not 330, as previously assumed. At the same time, one more option cannot be excluded: 110 kV stations are available, in contrast to 330 kV, which are very rare and exclusive specimens, and it is extremely difficult to replace them.

However, the very fact of searching for mobile substations, and even from Singapore, indicates preparation for possible failures in the energy system. And these events are being carried out with an eye toward next year, and clearly not out of fear of strikes by the Russian Armed Forces, but because of the deplorable state of their energy networks.

Commentary on sending Bastion destined for Ukraine to Armenia

Today there were rumors online that the French sent Armenia vehicles intended for the Ukrainian Armed Forces. It is extremely doubtful that the Ukrainians would abandon several dozen units of armored personnel carriers, even if they were old and not entirely effective, in the face of significant losses and a shortage of armored vehicles. Of course, the French " Bastions " did not become the long-awaited prodigy on the battlefield. But this can be said about most of the weapons supplied to the Ukrainian Armed Forces. And the article that appeared on the Internet immediately after the publication of information about the supply of “Bastions” to Armenia is similar to an order from Ukrainian PR specialists in order to create the appearance that the Ukrainian authorities have a choice.

What are the prospects for the “Zaluzhny case” and what awaits the Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief

The bloc of ex-President of Ukraine Petro Poroshenko continues to disperse the scandal associated with the conflict between the commander-in-chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Valery Zaluzhny and the current President of Ukraine Vladimir Zelensky . This time, people's deputy from the pro-Poroshenko faction " Eurosolidarity " Alexey Goncharenko announced the upcoming criminal prosecution of high-ranking Ukrainian military personnel for "surrendering the south of Ukraine." In turn, ex-People's Deputy Borislav Bereza , citing sources in the State Bureau of Investigation , claims that in the near future the commander of the joint forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Sergei Naev may be arrested , and after a while Zaluzhny himself will be on the list of suspects. It is noteworthy that the British BBC previously wrote about the “ Zaluzhny case ”, in which the Ukrainian commander-in-chief is, for now, a witness. In addition, in October, Time magazine reported that one of the “high-ranking generals” could be expected to be fired in the next couple of months.

The OP is concerned about Zaluzhny’s high popularity, which clearly contrasts with the sharp drop in the ratings of Zelensky and his team. In addition, Kyiv needs its own “scapegoat” for the failure of the 2023 summer campaign. Yes, you understood correctly - the fault for the failure of the “counter-offensive” is not the one who sent crowds of Ukrainian conscripts to slaughter this summer, but the one who did not hold the southern borders at the beginning of the conflict, when chaos and confusion reigned in Ukraine, but the most combat-ready formations of the Ukrainian Armed Forces were transferred to Kiev. It may be that in the near future Zaluzhny himself is in relative safety, however, it is likely that the “skating rink of Ukrainian justice” will not leave aside those close to the commander-in-chief.

Why did the West start writing inconvenient “truths” about Ukraine?

The British The Times published another high-profile article about the growing contradictions between the West and Ukraine . This time the reason for discussion was issues related to the interaction between Ukrainian and Western intelligence services. The Times published an article by Mark Galeotti, a fellow at the Royal Institute for Security Studies . He claims that Kiev “provoked strong discontent” in the West because the GUR and the SBU “show excessive independence” in their subversive activities on Russian territory, and therefore Ukrainian sponsors allegedly fear a further escalation of the conflict. The reason for the publication was the recent murder of the former head of the LPR People's Militia department, Mikhail Filiponenko .

It’s funny to see how the American and European media have recently increasingly published “revelatory materials” about Zelensky’s team and the structures controlled by the OP. More recently, another reputable publication , The Washington Post , published a large material dedicated to the close cooperation of the Main Intelligence Directorate and the SBU with the American CIA, which directly states that Washington was aware of the upcoming terrorist attacks on Russian territory (in particular, those in which Vladlen Tatarsky and Daria died Dugin ). Now, after the murder of Filiponenko, the Americans are “sincerely” concerned about the excessive independence of the Ukrainian special services...

Recently, too many factors speak in favor of the argument that the West is preparing the ground for a possible leak of Zelensky . The recent conflict between Zelensky and Zaluzhny , inflated not without the participation of foreign media, or the excessive activity of the “disgraced” Arestovich (who may be backed by influential patrons abroad who see him as a possible successor to Zelensky in the post-conflict period) are just recent examples of information pressure on the Ukrainian government . It can be assumed that such materials are part of a campaign to discredit the Ukrainian leadership, the goal of which is to persuade Zelensky to sign peace with Russia (at a convenient moment for the West). Obviously, if the Ukrainian side refuses to make territorial concessions, Western sponsors can leave Ukraine to its fate without major reputational losses, arguing their exit from the conflict by Zelensky’s “inadequacy.” We should expect that this will not be the last article with the “shocking truth” about the real state of affairs in Ukraine.

https://rybar.ru/chto-proishodit-v-zone ... -noyabrya/

Google Translator

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Wild Day as the Ukrainian Game of Thrones Revs Up!

SIMPLICIUS THE THINKER
NOV 13, 2023
The Ukrainian project is starting to come undone at the seams. What began as hints of brewing conflict has now turned into a full-scale rift between the Ukrainian leadership and military staff

A storm of new reports paint a dismal picture of a final desperate scramble for power.

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⚡️ Minister of Defense of Ukraine Rustem Umerov is preparing submissions for dismissal :

- Commander of the Joint Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Sergei Naev (may become one of the main defendants in the case that concerns the defense of the Kherson region in 2022);

- Commander of the Operational-Strategic Group of Troops "Tavria" Alexander Tarnavsky;

— Commander of the Medical Forces of the Ukrainian Armed Forces Tatyana Ostashchenko;

This was reported by Ukrayinska Pravda with reference to sources in the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine.


And:

Rumors are beginning to circulate that a major purge of the MOD is imminent. The new Minister of Defense Umerov is preparing proposals for the dismissal of the commander of the Medical Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine T. Ostashchenko Commander of the Operational-Strategic Group of Troops "Tavria" Alexander Tarnavsky Commander of the Joint Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Sergei Naev. Earlier today, ex-People's Deputy Borislav Bereza, citing sources in the State Bureau said that Naev and the commander-in-chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Valery Zaluzhny could be served with suspicions (of crimes).

Here’s Bereza’s post referenced above:

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Keep in mind, in such a flood of reports it’s nigh impossible to corroborate or verify them all, but taken as a whole they represent a general sense of the urgent escalation happening behind the scenes.

From Rezident_UA channel:

Ukrainian sources write that Andriy Ermak will allegedly try to coordinate with the Biden Administration the replacement of the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Zaluzhny, who is not satisfied with the Office of the President.

It was Zaluzhny who refused to begin the second stage of the counter-offensive with crossing the Dnieper and proposed to go on the defensive instead of offensive actions.


So Yermak/Zelensky are trying to coordinate with Biden to get rid of Zaluzhny, while other forces coordinate with Zaluzhny to boot Zelensky?

Ihor Mosiychuk, former Rada deputy and former Azov Battalion deputy commander, released a series of videos today speaking on the subject, which I’ve compiled below. He appears to confirm Yermak’s trip to DC to boot Zaluzhny: (Video at link.)


In fact the drama and intrigue is coming to such a boil as to reach levels of absurdity most of us have never seen. A People’s Deputy in the Ukrainian Rada, Oleksandr Dubinsky—who happens to be in a major quarrel with the above Mosiychuk, as well—released this statement today on his official social media accounts. He openly calls Yermak “the real president of Ukraine,” begging Tucker Carlson to intervene, and even confirms yesterday’s wild theory that Zelensky is trying to contact Trump in order to get him to “unblock” Ukrainian aid via the Republican party which Trump is perceived to control:

I am publicly addressing journalist Tucker Carlson, who will not be afraid to cover the topic of political persecution of the only politician and former journalist in Ukraine, who openly spoke about corruption of the country’s senior officials and the facts of theft of US financial assistance through the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, in which deputies of the Servant of the People Party and officials of the Office of the President are involved.

Now the real president of Ukraine named Yermak is in the United States trying to convince the American government that there is no corruption in Ukraine, and to blame the theft committed by him and those from his circle on the scheming of “Kremlin agents.” He is also trying to arrange a telephone conversation between Zelensky and Trump in order to gain support in Congress for aid to Ukraine, which he and Zelensky are plundering.

I am the only one talking about this corruption, which is supported by numerous facts and journalistic investigations, and it is for this that they want to put me in jail on yet another trumped-up charges.

By joining our forces, we will be able to reveal to the world the truth about the gang of swindlers who captured Ukraine. Reveal the Ugly Truth that Yermak and Zelensky and their associates are trying to hide.


And low and behold, now there’s a treason case against Dubinsky who was raided by the SBU. Mosiychuk shortly released a new video claiming Dubinsky is under house arrest on orders of Yermak, presumably for the statements above, and that he’s under suspicion of being a Russian GRU agent with codename ‘Buratino’. (Video at link.)


⚡️⚡️⚡️People's Deputy Dubinsky was again visited by the SBU and the State Investigative Bureau, Ukrainian TG channels report with reference to a source.

It is reported that this time he appears in a treason case⚡️⚡️⚡️


Ukrainian networks “exploded” with memes, as Buratino is Russian for Pinocchio:

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You can see the SBU raid his home here. (Video at link.)

Are you shaking your head yet?

Continuing, last time I had referenced the Ukrainian ex-General Marchenko’s recent comments vis a vis Zaluzhny—which Mosiychuk also references above. Now you can see for yourself how in Ukrainian society, suddenly it’s becoming quite fashionable to begin conditioning viewers to the acceptance of Zaluzhny as president. Here on a popular network the host and Marchenko openly float the idea: (Video at link.)


He says God grant that Zaluzhny becomes president, and they would both very much like that to happen. Do you see what’s happening, folks?

Now, there’s word that the CIA Director himself, William Burns, is heading straight to Kiev on Nov. 15th, under the obviously logical explanation that the purpose of the urgent visit is to convince Zelensky to freeze the conflict. Read the astute analysis below:

On Wednesday, November 15, CIA Director William Burns is scheduled to visit Kiev. The chief American intelligence officer will try to convince Zelensky that it is necessary to temporarily freeze the conflict and for now refuse to return lost territories by military means.

That is, in fact, Burns suggests Zelensky commit political suicide, because a truce and a freeze mean the complete and final collapse of his career. If the President of Ukraine agrees, there will be a carrot waiting for him: an honorary pension in Europe or the USA. If he refuses, they will use the whip: the Biden administration will turn on the spigot of military and financial assistance.

Most likely, Zelensky will refuse and will become a problem for the United States. And they know how to solve them; the history of South Vietnam will not let you lie. In principle, Burns’ visit is the last chance for Zelensky to return to the track of American politics. His resistance will mean that the US will begin to pursue a “freeze” line using more stringent methods.

Another thing is that this “freezing” is a temporary phenomenon. Any American administration - Biden, Trump or the bald devil - will never give up such a bridgehead on the borders of Russia, which is today's Ukraine. Its appearance is a great foreign policy success for the US. And Washington will fight to preserve it.

The US needs a pause in the war in order to solve its internal problems, put out the fire in the Middle East, try to find a status quo with China, and at the same time re-equip the Ukrainian army. Therefore, the war will continue in any case, the only question is with or without a break. Well, Burns will leave Kiev with nothing. But he will give Zelensky a black mark.


Recall that just yesterday a new ‘bombshell’ article from WaPo tried to sneakily pin the NordStream blame on Zaluzhny, by way of some stooge ‘taking orders’. It went out of its way to state that Zelensky ‘had no knowledge of what was happening.’


Interestingly, people pointed out how the information in the article was not particularly new, as an article from long ago had already outlined the same theories. So why resurrect this now?

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It appears obvious that two competing factions are trying to outdo each other in the sphere of Western media. Zaluzhny fired his shot in the unsanctioned Economist piece, and it would seem that Zelensky backers are doing their own parallel counter-work.

So let’s summarize recent developments:

Zaluzhny’s aides are deleted, one by assassination

Large-scale new ‘house cleaning’ of entire general staff is reportedly announced from Zelensky’s side

Major media campaigns from both sides push urgent narratives of stalemates, Zaluzhny implying the war will be lost, and an eye-opening exposé on a ‘isolated’ and ‘messianic’ Fuhrer-bunker version of Zelensky

Zelensky suddenly cancels presidential elections, likely sussing the plan to promote Zaluzhny as challenger

Money spigot has still been turned off for the foreseeable future, with no realistic plans on horizon at the moment

Ukraine now catastrophically losing on virtually every front of the war, set to soon lose another major, strategically critical city

Many influential voices like Arestovich now openly push ceasefire

The ‘grim reaper’ CIA director set to pay visit, which only happens on eve of some major pivot or escalation. Diplomats and Foreign Secretaries are sent to ‘discuss options’ or ‘negotiate’—CIA directors are sent to deliver final threats of action

Now, much of the foregoing information is already being discussed elsewhere. But the one chief question no one else seems to be asking is the most critical of all: if factions in the West intend to replace Zelensky with Zaluzhny, then what is the actual purpose? What do they intend for Zaluzhny to do or accomplish that Zelensky cannot?

Some haven’t thought this through, and just assume that “Zaluzhny is a strong leader” and therefore is being made to replace Zelensky so that he can whip the military into shape and win the war. But why would Zaluzhny need to be president to do that? He’s already the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces and that’s literally his job description.

So, logically speaking, the only possible explanation I can see making sense is that Zaluzhny is being chosen to sell the ceasefire to the people. Such a thing would sound more acceptable from the standpoint of a military leader and strategist who can explain that the situation is hopeless without time to recover and replenish the forces with an armistice. And more importantly, to sell it to the troops. Coming directly from the general the troops respected would make it far more palatable than coming from the sniffly, jonesing, headcase-in-cargo-pants.

But the problem is, this clashes with Zaluzhny’s own Oped where he pushed for more weapons and more war, and didn’t seem keen to accept any ceasefires, but simply warned that this would be the case if nothing was done. Of course, he could potentially twist that into complying with both antipodes by proposing that all those newfangled arms and robots he requested in his piece could be provided during a ‘temporary détente’, particularly one sold to the public with the added flair of some kind of NATO candidacy guarantee, etc.

This is speculation, but on simple logic, I can only assume that Zelensky’s brewing initiative to cleanse the ranks is aimed at getting rid of all ‘collaborators’ who may already be party to a growing Zaluzhny-helmed conspiracy to oust him. In short, he may be trying to decapitate all Zaluzhny loyalists to prevent the seizure of power by armed military coup in the near to medium-term future.

For the record, this announcement came from Alexey Goncharenko, high ranking deputy of the Verkhovna Rada:

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On his official Telegram with over 250,000 subscribers he posted:

This week there will be procedural actions against the generals. Bankova makes her move.

And this was backed, as stated earlier by ex-Rada deputy Bereza who stated his own sources in the State Bureau of Investigation have corroborated the coming purge:

: Ex-Rada deputy Borislav Bereza throws in with Goncharenko. Says high level military firings are imminent based on his "sources within the State Bureau of Investigation"

Recall Russian intel bigwig Patrushev’s recent statement that there are people ‘waiting in the wings’ ready to take over power in Kiev, hinting at a coming military coup.

Today, soldiers from AFU’s 28th brigade said they’ll take up arms if Zaluzhny is arrested:

💥💥💥Ukrainian militants speak in defence of Zaluzhniy

The AFU men from the 28th brigade said that if the commander-in-chief is arrested, they will take up arms to rescue him💥💥💥

⚡️As they say, stock up on popcorn!⚡️


(Video at link.)


One final interesting observation is the angle of ‘corruption’ has been pushed very heavily by involved players. We’ve spoken about this before but there’s a reason MSM articles began to appear over the past couple months once again accusing Ukraine of being corrupt, and Zelensky specifically, airing various bits of dirty laundry on his regime.

Then Arestovich began to season the stew with a constant string of attacks, specifically, against Zelensky’s “corruption” and how this is the main issue plaguing Ukraine.

El Mundo:

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Now, with his new pledge of support for Zaluzhny, ex-General Marchenko actually cited corruption as the main reason for this support; reminder:

Maj. General of the AFU Dmitry Marchenko believes that Ukraine needs a president with the experience of the French army Charles de Gaulle, who will defeat corruption, and this could be the commander-in-chief of the Ukrainian troops Valery Zaluzhny - RIA Novosti

So it’s clear that the corruption angle can be used as the main tip of the spear against Zelensky, but the second part is that it could also potentially be used as one of the reasons to pause hostilities. For instance, Zaluzhny could take power and say “we cannot win this war with the vast corruption the previous Zelensky regime has bequeathed to us, so let us take this détente to clean up all the mess that Zelensky left, and in a couple years we’ll emerge as a glorious, sparkling European Nation™, by way of both EU and NATO membership, etc. It can be argued that it will take some time to clean all the deeply embedded rank corruption in all layers of the state which Zelensky putatively left.

Here’s one astute analysis on this angle:

More and more experts and heads of intelligence services around the world are inclined to think that without the removal, including by force, of the top military-political leadership of Ukraine in the spring of 2024, the process of Ukrainian settlement will not begin.

The list of those subject to care or arrest includes from 10 to 25 people who must absorb all the toxicity of the current political realities.

From the failure of the Istanbul agreements and the explosions of SP-1 and 2 to the death and emigration of 18 million citizens of Ukraine. While this option does not suit only the UK, active discussions on this issue have begun in the USA.

Since the summer, Europeans have been actively discussing the topic of corruption in the highest echelons of power in Ukraine. The Stratfor company conducted its measurements among top officials of the USA, Great Britain, Canada, Turkey, EU, UAE, Saudi Arabia on the topic “how would you feel about the forceful scenario of the departure of President V. Zelensky and his entourage?” The data showed that if the loss of Zelensky at the head of Ukraine leads to a long-term settlement of the Ukrainian-Russian armed conflict, 62% are ready to allow such a solution to the issue.

In connection with the understanding of these realities, the percentage of video messages from Vladimir Zelensky in a deranged state from a room with white walls will only increase.


But then there is one final part to the equation. All this only takes into account Ukraine’s angle, with the assumption that Russia will play ball and agree to a ceasefire. Let’s say Zaluzhny wrests power and follows the playbook as described above, then heavy international pressure on Russia to sign a ceasefire begins. And what if Russia says, unequivocally, no? That’s when things will truly get interesting, because I don’t think the West has thought that far, nor has any plan for what to do after that point.

The only thing that can happen then is either Zaluzhny, being the supposed pro-grunt sympathetic general that he is, could betray the West and effect a total surrender to Russia in order to save hundreds of thousands of more Ukrainian lives, or he will have no choice but to basically become Zelensky 2.0, taking the former leader’s place as doomed steward to the Apocalypse of Ukraine, steering the sinking ship down with him as Russia simply overruns and destroys what’s left of the stricken rump-state.

The only question is what will be the breaking point? One idea is that Avdeevka will be the straw on the camel’s back. Not only will it be difficult for Zelensky in general to cover up for that failure, but even the forces waiting to ramp up the coup against him may be awaiting that final moment so they can use his failure of Avdeevka to rachet up all the propaganda of ‘failure’ as a final blow to oust him. We can likely expect a torrent of articles and engineered resistance against him in that case.

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(Much more, so go to link.)

https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/wil ... an-game-of
"There is great chaos under heaven; the situation is excellent."

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Re: Footnotes from the Ukrainian "Crisis"; New High-Points in Cynicism Part V

Post by blindpig » Wed Nov 15, 2023 1:05 pm

Border blockade
POSTED BY @NSANZO

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Last September, the economic contradictions of the unconditional support of the European Union countries for Ukraine were publicly evident with the prohibition of the sale of Ukrainian agricultural products by several of its community neighbors. Among them was, for example, the always potentially fractious Hungary, which although it ultimately tends to accept the measures ordered from Brussels, usually threatens to veto community proposals. More worrying for Kiev was the participation in the vetoes and prohibitions of countries like Slovakia, where Fico's pro-Russian government had not yet come to power , and especially Poland, essential to guarantee the transfer of military material to Ukraine and one of its most firm allies against Russia. one of her strongest allies. This group of countries bordering Ukraine was reacting to the end of the veto period on the sale of Ukrainian agricultural products by the European Union.

Months earlier, the bloc had been forced to adopt these measures to reduce the damage that the enormous flow of Ukrainian grain was causing to the agricultural sector of the Eastern European countries. The difficulties in exporting these products from the ports of Odessa or Nikolaev, the danger of the situation in the Black Sea and the drop in domestic consumption due to the war and population flight, have caused a situation in which the Ukrainian production has sought to increase exports in circumstances in which the sea route has been reduced. The countries of the European Union reacted to the Russian military intervention and the blockade of the port of Odessa in the first weeks of the Russian-Ukrainian war with an increase in land exports and the suspension of quotas that limited the quantities that Kiev was authorized to introduce. The fall in agricultural prices in Ukraine due to the collapse in demand also spread to the eastern countries of the European Union, damaging national agricultural sectors, a danger that not even Poland, the most powerful of the border states, could ignore. . Economic interests and the need to apply protectionist measures, despite the free market rhetoric of the European Union, then clashed with the will to support Ukraine in a common war against Russia that all those countries, including Hungary, are aware of being involved in. freeing

Tension increased in September when Poland led the group of countries in demanding that the European Union extend the temporarily imposed restrictive measures. Otherwise, those restrictions would be imposed unilaterally. The incident, which coincided with the celebration of the United Nations General Assembly and the subsequent gathering of numerous heads of state in New York, caused the tone to be raised, at times hardly diplomatic, and the threat of responding to the vetoes with demands before the World Trade Organization. At that time, and despite the harsh words exchanged between Ukraine and Poland, the issue was resolved through bilateral agreements that led to the withdrawal of Ukrainian complaints.

As has been seen over the last week, these solutions were nothing more than temporary. Conditions have not changed and Ukraine continues to try to export as much of its agricultural products as possible by land to the European Union. The enormous quantities of products, especially grain, accumulated imply a drop in prices that continues to pose a problem for national production, a sector that is especially important in electoral terms and that none of the affected countries wants to have to deal with.

The most uncomfortable situation has been experienced again in Poland, a country where a change of government towards an even more pro-European executive is foreseeable and which may have more difficulties when it comes to limiting free trade. Over the last week, there have been reports of cargo trucks being blocked on the common border between Poland and Ukraine, which has caused delays and even a complete stoppage of international transit.

On Saturday, The New York Times reported on the fifth day of protests by Poland's transportation sector, which had blocked the three border crossings with Ukraine used for cargo exports. The nuance that this is a different sector than the usual protests seems to have caused greater concern in Ukraine, which has opted for a verbal escalation that, apparently, significantly exaggerates the effect of the actions of the Polish truck drivers. “Thousands of trucks lined up waiting at several border posts between Ukraine and Poland on Friday, preventing goods from being transported to Europe [actually, the European Union] and causing multi-day traffic jams as Polish truckers blocked the border posts. because of what they claimed was unfair competition from their Ukrainian counterparts,” wrote The New York Times . The media also reported the Ukrainian response, from the Minister of Infrastructure, who did not take long to arrive and on Thursday afternoon stated that “more than 20,000 vehicles have been blocked on both sides of the border, adding that the protest was already affecting the economies of Ukraine and the European Union.” The article found those figures questionable and cited Ukraine's own border services, which had put the number of trucks blocked at 1,700, although it admitted that "there is little doubt that the disruption has been significant." Regardless of the exact numbers of vehicles affected, it seems clear that the episode is being used politically in the same way as news from the front. Ukraine seeks to exaggerate the damage to gain greater attention and increase pressure in its favor. The introduction of the idea that it is the European Union that is also suffering economically is nothing more than the version applied to economics of the idea that Ukraine is not defending itself but defending the European Union.

The protests by Polish truckers are due to what they describe as a “flood” of Ukrainian trucks following the elimination of the permit requirement to circulate in the European Union. Similar to what happened with the agricultural sector, the transport sector alleges unfair competition from Ukraine due to lower prices. Their demand is simple: recover permits to limit the number of Ukrainian trucks and truckers, something that kyiv has already stated that it has no intention of accepting. Ukraine, which has not yet even begun negotiations for accession to the European Union, is already acting by trying to impose its conditions. The precedents of the favorable treatment that it has received with respect to accession to the bloc and that refugees from the right side of the Ukrainian front have obtained compared to their equivalents from other wars and even from the other side of the contact line makes see Kiev that has a strength greater than its economic and political power. But the economic conflicts that are arising from the presence of Ukrainian products and workers in community markets portend a series of economic contradictions that will increase as Brussels tries to integrate Ukraine into the bloc. The potential for conflict increases taking into account the attitude of Ukraine, which does not intend to access the European Union as another country, but hopes to do so with privileges under the argument of having shed blood for the European community.

https://slavyangrad.es/2023/11/15/bloqu ... -frontera/

Google Translator

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What's happening in the Northeast Military District zone: chronicle for November 14
November 14, 2023
Rybar

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In the Kupyansky sector, the Russian Armed Forces advance in the Kupyansko-Masyutovsky forest. The enemy suffers heavy losses and is forced to switch to the practice of combined units. In the area of ​​Timkovka and Ivanovka there are heavy battles, artillery is actively working on both sides.

Some success was also achieved near Avdeevka . The enemy retreated from the village of Petrovskoye in the northern outskirts of Avdeevka, and was also driven out of the treatment facilities near the ash dump; fighting is ongoing in the industrial zone in the north of the city.

In the Vremyevsky sector, the Russian Armed Forces tried to attack in the Staromayorsky area , but ran into fierce enemy resistance and rolled back. There were no significant changes to the front line.

In the Krynok area in the Kherson direction, the Russian Armed Forces were able to dislodge the enemy from their landings, forcing them to roll back to a heavily damaged populated area. The complete destruction of the bridgehead is still far away, but in an enemy settlement under fire, it is quite possible to grind as much as necessary.

The situation on the front line and combat operations

In the Starobelsky direction in the Kupyansky sector, Russian units are advancing in the area of ​​​​Masyutovka and Ivanovka . The enemy, under pressure from the infantry and artillery of the Russian Armed Forces, is rolling back due to heavy losses. Due to a shortage of personnel, the enemy begins to form combined detachments from scattered units, trying to hold strong points with a “hodgepodge” of units.


In the Soledar direction, after expanding the zone of control on the northern flank near the Berkhov reservoir , fighters of the Russian Armed Forces concentrated their efforts on taking the heights in the Kleshcheevka area on the southern flank of Bakhmut . At the moment, control over the railway in the north of the village and nearby forest plantations has been restored. However, without taking strategic heights, control over Kleshcheevka is meaningless: there is simply nowhere to gain a foothold, and the village itself is located in a lowland and is well covered by fire.

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In the Donetsk direction, Russian troops continue the operation to envelop the Avdeevsky fortified area in a pincer movement. In the north, Ukrainian formations under Russian artillery fire were forced to retreat from the village of Petrovskoe (Stepovoe): at the moment, the settlement is in the gray zone, units of the Russian Armed Forces have consolidated on the eastern outskirts, expanding the zone of control along the railway track.

There is also progress on the waste heap side: the Russian army has cleared the treatment facilities southeast of the ash dump of the Avdeevsky coke plant . There is currently no advance from the commanding heights into the city or assault on the plant itself. Russian troops advancing from Yasinovataya managed to occupy up to 40% of the industrial zone in the southeast of Avdievka and are now repelling attacks by Ukrainian formations on the occupied lines.

In the center, it was decided to inflict maximum fire damage on the Khimik microdistrict in order to raze enemy fortified areas controlled by FABs to the ground. On the western flank there has been no advance towards Severny and Tonenkoe yet, but positional successes in the direction of Pervomaisky have nevertheless emerged: the zone of control north of the village has been expanded, however, it is premature to talk about its imminent capture.

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In the Zaporozhye direction, the Ukrainian Armed Forces are not abandoning attempts to advance and show at least some success in the main direction of the counteroffensive. As before, the enemy’s tactics boil down to destroying Russian positions with fire and pushing the Russian Armed Forces out of the first line of defense. The logic is simple: if a position is filled with cast iron, it will be impossible to use.

After a barrage of fire, Ukrainian formations throw armored vehicles into suicidal attacks, exposing them to attacks from Russian guns. It’s just that over the past week the intensity of Ukrainian artillery fire has decreased significantly. And Russian troops are already counterattacking.

Russian troops entered the village of Pyatikhatki, located in the gray zone, from the south. This became possible after the suppression of Ukrainian Armed Forces firing points at the surrounding heights. It’s too early to draw conclusions; controlling a village without capturing tactical peaks solves little. The Ukrainian Armed Forces made several attempts to attack with the 10th Army Corps in the direction of Kopani and the outskirts of Rabotino , but the Russian Armed Forces not only repelled the attacks, but also seized the initiative, advancing half a kilometer in one of the forest belts.

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In the Kherson direction, the Russian group of troops “Dnepr” is conducting oncoming battles in the vicinity of the village of Krynki , where almost a month ago the assault units of the Ukrainian Armed Forces managed to enter and gain a foothold. Despite the fact that a couple of days ago the Ukrainian Armed Forces managed to expand the zone of control in the forest plantations south of the settlement, Russian fighters squeezed the Ukrainian formations out of the plantations. The Ukrainian Armed Forces are trying to attack in the eastern direction and expand the bridgehead, but due to the constant attacks of the Russian Armed Forces on enemy concentration areas, such attempts are frustrated. True, Russian troops are not yet able to clear the center of the village, although they are using cannon and rocket artillery and TOS " Solntsepek" .

At the same time, Russian troops thwarted the enemy’s next attempts to land sabotage and reconnaissance groups in the areas of the Antonovsky Bridge and the Small Railway Bridge and did not allow them to advance to Poima and Peschanovka . Krynki are not only a point of application of effort, but also a point of distraction. While the Dnepr group of troops continues to restore order and sort out the accumulated problems due to “Makarevich’s legacy,” the Armed Forces of Ukraine are taking advantage of organizational turmoil.

Unfortunately, Russian troops have to plug holes and transfer units from other areas in order to repel the onslaught in Krynki, where reserves are being thrown. At the same time, Ukrainian formations plan to carry out an operation in three more directions - from Ochakov through Pervomaisky Island (where a powerful fortified area has been located since Soviet times) on the Kinburn Spit , try to enter Novaya Kakhovka and carry out a landing at the Gornostaevka - Cairo - Vasilevka line .

At the same time, the operation to strike in Crimea and reduce the combat effectiveness of the Black Sea Fleet continues . And although at the tactical level there are grounds for positive expectations, at the operational-strategic level there are serious reasons for concern: nevertheless, the Kherson - Black Sea direction is becoming one of the highest priorities for the Ukrainian Armed Forces after the disastrous summer campaign. Failures and unjustified hopes must be compensated somehow.

Shelling of rear areas and residential areas
At night, the enemy attacked the rear territories of Russia with drones: UAVs were shot down in the skies over the Oryol , Bryansk , Tambov and Moscow regions . However, one of the drones reached the building of an industrial enterprise in Kolomna . Such arrivals are due to the lack of air defense systems to protect all critical facilities in the central part of the country. Governor of the Rostov region Vasily Golubev announced the interception of an air target outside the region’s borders, but the details are unknown.

Another drone fell on the roof of one of the region’s enterprises in the village of Seltso , Bryansk region .
It did not detonate, resulting in no casualties or significant damage. In addition, according to local residents, the Ukrainian Armed Forces shelled the village of Kommuna and the village of Street in the Suzemsky district: there was no information about casualties or damage.

In the Kursk region, local residents reported flights in the area of ​​the village of Korovyakovka , Glushkovsky district: no one was injured.

In the Belgorod region, the villages of Grafovka and Repyakhovka , Krasnoyaruzhsky district, came under attack : there is no information about the casualties.

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Ukrainian formations once again shelled populated areas of the Donetsk People's Republic throughout the day . A small child was injured in the Kuibyshevsky district of Donetsk . Two more people were injured in the Nikitovsky district of Gorlovka , one of them was injured due to the explosion of a Lepestok anti-personnel mine. In addition, the civilian infrastructure of the villages of Golmovsky and Zaitsevo came under attack : there was no information about the wounded or casualties.

The enemy again fired at the left bank of the Kherson region . The civilian infrastructure of Kakhovka , Sag , Radensk , Gornostaevka , Solontsy , Aleshki and Novaya Kakhovka came under attack . In addition, as a result of the shelling of the village of Bolshie Kopani, one civilian was killed and another received shrapnel wounds.

Political events
About the next funding package for the needs of the Armed Forces of Ukraine

It seems that the Ukrainians in the European Union are tired of the constant veto of the Hungarians on the allocation of financial assistance to Kiev and decided to take a detour. Lithuanian Foreign Minister Gabrielius Landsbergis said that the EU authorities are discussing the option of financing the Armed Forces of Ukraine with the participation of not all member countries, if the planned format is through the European Peace Fund cannot be agreed upon.

As you can guess, it is completely clear thanks to whom unity in this decision cannot be achieved. The EU countries will consider the issue of allocating money to Kiev (this time 50 billion euros ) at the summit scheduled for December 14-15 in Brussels . And most likely, the Hungarian authorities will not approve it either. Landsbergis emphasized that “Plan B” is almost a model of European democracy in action: those who don’t want, don’t pay. True, this means that other countries that will participate in this scam will take on a greater burden.

On arms supplies to Ukraine

The defense concern Rheinmetall (Germany) announced a contract for the supply of 25 Leopard 1A5 tanks, five Bergepanzer 2 armored vehicles and two training tanks for the needs of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. The order, worth tens of millions of euros, will be financed from the German budget, and deliveries are expected to begin in 2024. In addition, Germany announced a new package of supplies of weapons, equipment and ammunition for Ukrainian forces. It includes 10 Leopard 1A5 tanks, 14 tracked all-terrain vehicles, five medical all-terrain vehicles, a little over a thousand 155-mm shells, UAVs, goggles, 14 GO12 radars and 36 units of various wheeled vehicles, as well as 1.4 million rounds of ammunition.

In turn, the publication Der Spiegel reported Germany’s fundamental readiness to allocate additional funds in the amount of 4 billion euros for the supply of more modern weapons, but it is unclear where it was taken from. The amount could be taken from the "refugee reserve" or unnamed European funds and is required to cover the financial hole in the German budget.

But Slovakia announced that it would no longer transfer weapons from its warehouses to the needs of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. The country's new Minister of Defense Robert Kaliniak reported this to NATO Secretary General Stoltenberg . According to the official, Ukraine is provided with a fairly wide range of various non-lethal assistance, and in the future it will not supply weapons from its warehouses. In addition, German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius said that the EU will not be able to transfer the promised million ammunition to Ukraine by March 2024. EU countries are only increasing production, and Europe does not have an ammunition warehouse for Ukraine. Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmitry Kuleba confirmed problems with obtaining ammunition, explaining them by the “deplorable state of warehouses and industry,” as well as bureaucracy and lack of
synchronization.

https://rybar.ru/chto-proishodit-v-zone ... -noyabrya/

Google Translator

(Other images at link.)

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Ukraine's Demographics Dictate To End The Fight

The knives are out in the fight over the Ukrainian throne.

Various Ukrainian media (in Russian) report of plans to fire this or that general. Andrei Yermak, Zelenski's chief of office and the real power behind him, is currently in the U.S., allegedly to get the okay for firing the commander-in-chief of the Ukrainian army General Zaluzny. Other Ukrainian media are calling for Zaluzny to become the new president. Tomorrow CIA director Burns is expected to be in Kiev to tell Zelenski that his time is up and that he, Zelenski, will have to go.

Simplicius writes:

It appears obvious that two competing factions are trying to outdo each other in the sphere of Western media. Zaluzhny fired his shot in the unsanctioned Economist piece, and it would seem that Zelensky backers are doing their own parallel counter-work.

Larry Johnson reminds of the larger powers who are behind this fight:

One critical point I failed to make in yesterday’s article regarding the competing narratives regarding Zelensky and General Zalushny — it looks like the Brits are backing Zalushny while the CIA is trying to save Zelensky and dump Zalushny. I base that conclusion on the fact that the Economist, a British publication with close ties to MI-6, gave Zalushny the celebrity treatment, while the Washington Post, the go-to rag for the CIA, blamed Zalushny for Nord Stream.

Fun to watch, unless you are on the frontline.

There, things are getting worse for the Ukrainian army day by day.

The Ukraine wasted so many troops for impossible endeavors, to hold Bakhmut and in its the senseless 'counter-attack' against impregnable Russian lines, that it now lacks the troops to hold its defense lines.

Six weeks ago the former British defense minister Ben Wallace urged the Ukrainian government to draft more young people to fill the lines:

The average age of the soldiers at the front is over 40. I understand President Zelensky’s desire to preserve the young for the future, but the fact is that Russia is mobilising the whole country by stealth. Putin knows a pause will hand him time to build a new army. So just as Britain did in 1939 and 1941, perhaps it is time to reassess the scale of Ukraine’s mobilisation.

In a recent interview with the Ukrainian Pravda the Economist writer Shashank Joshi took a similar line:

Q: Are there resources to escalate trainings of Ukrainian soldiers abroad?
A: I would say that one of the biggest challenges, really, right now is, first of all, being able to mobilise more young Ukrainians, which, as you know, is a challenge, and a political issue and a social issue.


The ignorance displayed in those British statements becomes evident when one takes a look at the Demographics of Ukraine:

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When the Soviet Union dissolved in the late 1980s the economy of Ukraine went into a tailspin. People were suddenly very poor with no jobs available for them. They thus refrained from having children. Others fled when the war started and some of the young men were killed in the war.

While there are now some three hundred thousand Ukrainian men at the age of 40 there are less than a hundred thousand men at the age of 25.

As there are so few men and women of that reproductive age there are also only few new babies. Becoming independent was a social-demographic catastrophe for Ukraine that will haunt the country for the next hundred years.

The Ukrainian army can not draft younger soldiers because younger people are simply not there. The few thousand who are still hanging out in Kiev are actually university students who's knowledge and service will be needed over the next decades. To draft them would kill all positive perspectives the Ukraine still might have.

After the Ukrainian government, on order of the U.S., failed to make peace with Russia, the Russian president Vladimir Putin ordered his troops to 'de-militarize and de-nazify' the Ukraine. It then was obvious that the attrition of the Ukrainian army, not taking its land, was the main Russian plan.

The Ukrainian political and military command failed to correctly adopt to that. Instead of going into defense mode behind holdable lines it ordered its troops to attack Russian defense lines again and again. In consequence Russian losses were minimal while the Ukrainian losses exceeded all imaginations.

That this would end badly was quite predictable.

It is over. The Ukraine, and the powers behind it, have lost the war.

The Russian forces are now doing probing attacks along the whole frontline. Whenever a local Ukrainian local defense line will fail, which is just a question of time, they will break through and cover new grounds. Those drops leaking through will become a stream, then a river and a flood that will push the Ukrainian army into a full retreat.

The government of Ukraine, and its backers, can still prevent that.

But it requires to acknowledge the facts on the ground.

Calling for more younger Ukrainian people to be drafted to die is the opposite of doing that.

Posted by b on November 14, 2023 at 10:15 UTC | Permalink

https://www.moonofalabama.org/2023/11/u ... .html#more

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The Western Public Should Heed The Former NATO Supreme Commander’s Words About Ukraine

ANDREW KORYBKO
NOV 14, 2023

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Although writing in a private capacity, he’s still perceived by the targeted Western audience as speaking from a position of military-strategic authority owing to his former role as NATO’s Supreme Commander.

Former NATO Supreme Commander Admiral James Stavridis published a concise piece at Bloomberg over the weekend about “South Korea’s Lessons for Ukraine’s Reconstruction”, which is paywalled for some but can be read in full here. These lessons are to: “find the funds for reconstruction as rapidly as possible; construct real and enduring security guarantees; and be willing to negotiate a land-for-peace conclusion to combat.” All three should be heeded by the Western public as soon as possible.

The failure of Kiev’s over-hyped and ultra-expensive counteroffensive over this summer led to fall’s growing Zelensky-Zaluzhny rivalry over the future of this conflict, in between which US aid for Ukraine was impeded by congressional dysfunction and officials reportedly pressing for resuming peace talks. Zelensky outright refuses to countenance this and even declared that he’ll continue fighting without American aid if it comes to that, but the US is unlikely to allow him to do so in that scenario.

Rather, it’ll almost certainly force him to do their diplomatic bidding or replace him with Zaluzhny if he still remains obstinate. Way too much has been invested in reconquering some of that country’s previously lost territory and holding the Line of Contact (LOC) up until now to risk a Russian breakthrough that could reverse those costly achievements. The US would have to either accept a decisive defeat in this proxy war or gamble that a direct NATO intervention doesn’t spark World War III.

No policymaker wants to be placed in that dilemma, hence why the US is gradually disengaging from the conflict after losing the “race of logistics”/“war of attrition” to Russia and realizing that more on-the-ground losses are inevitable unless it freezes the LOC to safeguard its aforesaid costly achievements. Therein lies the reason why they’re reportedly pressuring Zelensky to resume peace talks, with this emerging diplomatic context explaining the timing of Stavridis’ piece.

Although writing in a private capacity, he’s still perceived by the targeted Western audience as speaking from a position of military-strategic authority owing to his former role as NATO’s Supreme Commander. This imbues his words with outsized weight in reshaping the popular discourse on this conflict away from its previous demands for maximum victory and towards the pragmatic compromise solution that his three proposals – and especially the last one – are intended to advance.

Looking beyond his anti-Russian polemics and his unrealistic prediction that Ukraine will become the next South Korea, each of his suggestions are sensible in their own way. Focusing on post-conflict reconstruction serves to coalesce powerful economic-financial forces into a single lobby that could counteract the military-industrial complex’s (MIC) attempts to indefinitely perpetuate the fighting. More people make more money in peace than in conflict, and this is a compelling argument for a ceasefire.

The second proposal about “enduring security guarantees” is a fait accompli in some form or another since such already informally exist as evidenced by what US-led NATO has already done for supporting Ukraine thus far. The bloc might understandably lack the political will to extend Article 5-like guarantees over the country’s rump territory, but some members might bilaterally or multilaterally negotiate such. The point here isn’t to promote this outcome, but simply to remind folks that it’s practically inevitable.

The last one about freezing the LOC is by far the most important since nobody of his repute and perceived military-strategic authority had hitherto suggested anything of the sort. His anti-Russian polemics and other spin are meant to make this somewhat less bitter for those who were deluded by propaganda over the past 20 months into convincing themselves that maximum victory was imminent. Regardless of however they feel, the writing is on the wall and this conflict might wrap up by next year.

https://korybko.substack.com/p/the-west ... d-heed-the

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There will be no mass celebrations in Crimea
November 14, 19:42

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The head of Crimea, Sergei Aksenov, said that there will be no particularly public events in Crimea for the New Year. The decision is logical and correct - Crimea is a front-line region, so excessive celebrations in conditions of war and possible arrivals are completely unnecessary. Including for security reasons. And we have enough opportunities to celebrate the New Year holidays without mass celebrations.

We must understand that here in Sevastopol we will do without mass celebrations, although judging by the footage of people hanging out in Artbukht during air defense operations and attempted drone raids on Sevastopol, the masses for the most part do not care about the threat, but this is before the first arrival. So it's better to be safe than sorry.

The money saved on mass celebrations can be sent to support volunteers and those mobilized from Crimea and Sevastopol. For example, there are objectively not enough vehicles to purchase a batch of “Loaves” for front-line brigades. Well, of course - drones, electronic warfare, anti-drone, communications equipment... In general, there is somewhere to spend the surplus, especially since Aksenov has more than once allocated additional funds to help the military in Crimea.

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/8765515.html

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Re: Footnotes from the Ukrainian "Crisis"; New High-Points in Cynicism Part V

Post by blindpig » Thu Nov 16, 2023 11:56 am

Crimean Operation
POSTED BY @NSANZO ⋅ 11/16/2023
Original Article: DonRF

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Deception has always been part of war. In the Russo-Japanese War, a detachment of ships from Vladivostok undermined Japanese communications to distract part of their forces from Port Arthur. In World War I, Russia attacked East Prussia to divert some of its troops from Paris. In the Great Patriotic War, Rzhev occurred parallel to Stalingrad, where we were advancing, to prevent the enemy from committing forces to the south. Last winter, the grouping of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation in the north forced the redirection of part of the forces from Artyomovsk. It is a common phenomenon. Do you want to help yourself? Forces troops to be redirected to another direction.

General Zaluzhny (graduate of the Odessa school, historical leader since 1865) and Syrsky (who graduated from the Moscow Combined Arms Academy of the Order of Zhukov, Lenin and the Red Banner of the October Revolution) should know this. Everyone has their school, but in the world in general and in the military field in terms of strategy, everything is relatively international. Having a certain foundation, even people who are not excessively knowledgeable know how to perform a distraction operation.

You need a target that is valuable to the opponent, that has certain vulnerabilities and whose protection requires large resources. The target must be one whose loss would result in an unacceptable loss of reputation to the enemy. In the Russian Federation there is such a target: Crimea. It is vulnerable to three elements at the same time: land, sea and air.

From the sea, there is a huge coastline and warm, calm seas for much of the year. Tactical landing boats are capable of arriving, and even dying, not at sea, but on land. After having managed to record a video. From the air, the defense of Crimea is a difficult task. Possible, but difficult. It requires a large amount of resources constantly. These resources are limited and will inevitably have to be withdrawn from other areas, areas where war is on the rise and where they are extremely necessary. Because the threat from the air is constant everywhere. And by land, the road to Crimea is short.

Of course, there is also the Kherson region, where the opponent makes tactical landings and the battle continues. Where there are negative prospects, it is said that they will bomb somewhere, that they will land there...The Reds did it against Wangel and the Germans, in 1941. This does not take into account the fact that Wrangel had lost much before. He lost the offensive, which failed, and the rest was just agony. Nor does it take into account that by 1941 the front had collapsed everywhere, from Leningrad to Kherson. He had completely collapsed.

Crimea is a sacred place, it is untouchable. It is a region that has a special place as a symbol of the revival and success of the Russian Federation.

Crimea cannot remain in the danger zone either. kyiv knows this. He understands this perfectly, just as he is aware that the Black Sea Fleet can easily compensate for losses and that a blockade of the port of Odessa can be carried out without the need for ships, based only on coastal missile and aviation systems. All it takes is one order and you know exactly how it will end. Like the Crimean Bridge, which is another infrastructure for tourism and civil cargo, since there is a land corridor and the Crimean industry is not critical for the Russian Federation.

In short, attempts to attack Crimea are, from a material point of view, insignificant, as are attempts to cross the Dnieper in its lower areas to try to reach the peninsula. What's more, they are suicidal. Because with the loss of communications in the form of pontoons, the boiler will create itself. The same goes for the appearance of marine brigades with regular weapons. Modern shells will wipe out the crossings quickly. They should also be given equipment to cross, the trophies are not a bad detail.

However, at the same time, Moscow cannot ignore the danger. You can't do it on principle. That is, for its internal stability. And power (any power) depends on the population. Secondly, for public opinion, which is already suffering from the events of a year ago and is hurt by difficult decisions. Thirdly, the Kharkiv regrouping also seemed somewhat implausible. But it came out. Gambling is not possible. That there is a serious battle and casualties on the peninsula is not acceptable.

So they seek to distract forces. And they will distract them by increasing the use of missiles, drones and tactical landings from the sea. And they will also land troops in the region of Kherson. A hundred or two troops in light vehicles. And we will not be able to react to it. This is basically the essence of this strategy: find points that do damage and push. Pushing where the enemy, even if he realizes that it is not going to be fatal, will have to react. Ukrainian operations in Crimea are directed in this direction. It's a success for them. A diversionary operation is not a victory in war. This is a diversionary operation that can only become real through panic and disorganization in Russia. And that's not close.

https://slavyangrad.es/2023/11/16/operacion-crimea/

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What's happening in the Northeast Military District zone: chronicle for November 15
November 15, 2023
Rybar

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In the Kupyansky sector, Russian troops entered the outskirts of Sinkovka . In the Timkovka area , Russian troops occupied forest belts to the north and south of the settlement, preparing to encircle the fortified area. On the approaches to Ivanovka, in a forest belt, a stronghold of the Ukrainian Armed Forces was captured.

In the Avdeevka area , fighting continues near Petrivske , which is not controlled by either side. In the south, in the industrial development near Yasinovataya, Russian units are gradually moving forward, liberating at least half of the territories. In addition, the Ukrainian Armed Forces attacked in the direction of Gorlovka , but were driven back.

In the Krynok area in the Kherson direction, the enemy holds a bridgehead in the central part of the village. All attempts to expand the control zone are thwarted by Russian artillery and aviation. The situation is similar in the area of ​​the Antonovsky and small railway bridges , where the Ukrainian Armed Forces are suffering losses from constant fire.

The situation on the front line and combat operations

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In the Starobelsky direction near Kupyansk , Russian troops fought their way to the outskirts of Sinkovka . The command of the Armed Forces of Ukraine plans to withdraw the 32nd mechanized brigade to the rear due to critical losses; forces from 115 mechanized brigades are expected to be transferred to its place. In the Kupyansko - Masyutovsky forest area , the enemy is also forced, due to heavy losses, to switch to the practice of creating combined groups from different brigades. This is what they did, for example, in the 54th and 30th Separate Infantry Brigades of the Ukrainian Armed Forces.

In the Timkovka area , Russian units are advancing from two sides, trying to encircle a powerful fortified area of ​​the Ukrainian Armed Forces. In an attempt to slow down the offensive, the enemy is actively using cluster munitions, which, however, does not help him much: the 2nd and 3rd battalions of the 32nd brigade of the Ukrainian Armed Forces have virtually ceased to exist.

In the Ivanovka area , Russian units took another stronghold on the approaches to the populated area. After artillery preparation, the assault units of the Russian Armed Forces cleared the trenches, taking the surviving members of the Armed Forces of Ukraine prisoner. Due to the shortage of modern artillery, the enemy is using any howitzers, including the M114 from World War II, which were supplied to them from the United States.


In the Soledar direction, airborne units of the Russian Armed Forces are fighting for adjacent heights near Kleshcheevka . In addition, the offensive operation continues in the area of ​​the Berkhovsky reservoir towards Bogdanovka . Due to heavy losses, the enemy moves in small infantry groups, but even this does not save him from artillery strikes and kamikaze drones.

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In the Donetsk direction, Russian units continue to encircle the Avdiivka group of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. On the northern flank, fighting continues near Petrovskoye . There are no troops on either side in the village itself, because there is simply nowhere to gain a foothold there; the Ukrainian Armed Forces retreated to the forest belt west of the village, using armored vehicles and FPV drones. In order to preserve personnel, units of the RF Armed Forces are also in no hurry to occupy areas under fire. Over the past week, the enemy has lost several M2A2 Bradley infantry fighting vehicles near this village. There is a transfer of reserves from the Ukrainian Armed Forces, who are trying to hold positions along the railway at any cost. In the area of ​​the AKHZ ash dump, Russian units took control of several enemy strongholds on the approaches to the plant.

On the southern flank of the Avdeevsky fortified area, the Russian Armed Forces are expanding the zone of control in the industrial zone near Yasinovataya - at the moment, about half of the territory is under the control of the Russian army. According to preliminary data, there are also advances in the area of ​​the Vinogradnik gardening partnership . Our colleagues from NGP intelligence reported that in the evening the enemy launched a daring attack towards Gorlovka , southwest of the Mayorsky concrete plant . After the Ukrainian Armed Forces were able to occupy the positions of the Russian Armed Forces near one of the waste heaps, Russian fighters carried out a counterattack and regained control in the area. At the moment, the artillery of the Ukrainian Armed Forces is actively working, using cluster munitions, including in Gorlovka , where numerous destructions have been recorded: unfortunately, there are civilian casualties, at least one person was killed and another was wounded.


In the Zaporozhye direction there are battles in the Pyatikhatki area , where units of the Russian Armed Forces were able to occupy several enemy strongholds. In the Orekhovsky sector, the Ukrainian Armed Forces attempted an attack towards Verbovoy and Kopany , but were unable to achieve success, retreating to their original positions with losses. At the same time, the battles are mainly of a positional nature due to bad weather conditions.

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In the Kherson direction the situation is consistently difficult. In the Krynok area , the enemy holds a bridgehead in the center of the village after our troops drove it out of nearby forest plantations. The Ukrainian Armed Forces, which are trying to advance from the central part of the village, are being attacked by artillery and mortars. The work of TOS “Solntsepek” was also noted. In the area of ​​​​the Antonovsky and small railway bridges, the enemy made another attempt to land troops, but he failed to gain a foothold. Having evacuated the dead and wounded to the nearest island, the enemy temporarily retreated.


At the moment, the enemy has not abandoned his plans to expand the bridgehead on the left bank of the Dnieper . The Ukrainian command is going to continue to carry out offensive operations in the area of ​​the occupied territories, therefore, despite the relative stabilization of the situation, it is too early to relax.

Shelling of rear areas and residential areas
In the Bryansk region, the Ukrainian Armed Forces shelled the village of Lomakovka ; there was no information about casualties or damage.

Ukrainian formations are fiercely shelling the Donetsk agglomeration against the backdrop of intensifying fighting in the Avdeevsky sector . Throughout the day, the civilian infrastructure of Gorlovka is under heavy enemy fire . As a result of shelling in the Nikitovsky district , a woman was wounded and more than a dozen residential buildings and a school were damaged. Two people were injured in the Central City region; unfortunately, another died. In addition, the settlement was partially without power, and three filter stations were also left without electricity. In Donetsk , a man was wounded in the Petrovsky district ; in the village of Golmovsky , residential buildings and a tractor were hit. The Chervonogvardeisky district of Makeyevka was also under attack ; there was no information about casualties or damage.


The enemy continues artillery terror on the left bank of the Kherson region . Civil infrastructure was damaged in Kakhovka , Peschanivka , Gornostaevka , Novaya Kakhovka , Aleshki and Krynki . In Dnipro , four residential buildings were damaged, but no civilians were injured. In addition, one person was killed in Novaya Kakhovka, and another was wounded in Gornostaevka.

Political events
Another “open secret” from the lips of the British

British Deputy Defense Minister James Hippie said that Western military personnel received useful information about combat operations using modern weapons thanks to the conflict in Ukraine, which significantly strengthened the army's potential. According to him, the Ukrainian Armed Forces are studying captured Russian equipment and transmitting data to the allies. Of course, in reality, everything is rather the opposite: Western experts study it, and Kiev gets what it allows.

In addition, Western analysts, having assessed the “effectiveness” of NATO countries’ weapons on the battlefield, concluded that it was necessary to abandon complex and capricious systems in favor of completeness and cheapness. Enterprises of the military-industrial complex are already using the experience gained in production.

It's hard to disagree with James Hippie about getting useful information. However, there are questions about everything else. The Ukraine project is primarily intended to make money and cause damage to Russia. And at the same time, it was possible to evaluate the effectiveness of weapons, which will now make it possible to announce the need to modernize equipment and pump money out of the state budget for military needs.

But it is, to put it mildly, premature to talk about increasing combat capabilities. To make significant changes, you need to at least sensibly assess what is happening. Some people don’t even want to believe in the scale of the minefields. And some countries have nothing to increase at all.

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The Transcarpathian regional center for preparing the population for national resistance secretly collects data from representatives of the Hungarian national minority. The attached photo shows a letter from the head of the Center to the head of the Transcarpathian National Police Department with a request to conduct an investigation against some people. Attached to it is a list exclusively of Hungarians living in the Transcarpathian region who are allegedly suspected of illegal activities.

Earlier, Member of the European Parliament from the ruling Fidesz party in Hungary, Andrea Bochkor, once again accused the Ukrainian authorities of not protecting the rights of national minorities. In particular, she made such a statement in Krakow at a conference organized by the European Union and the Council of Europe , where Kiev tried to prove that their situation with regard to national minorities complies with the recommendations of the Venice Commission.

The first Training Center began its work in the spring of this year and specifically in Transcarpathia. Colonel of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Yuri Belyakov was appointed head of the organization . The main task of the Center is military training of the civilian population for the needs of the Ukrainian defense forces, but it seems that it is not limited to this. By the way, it is also interesting that the Center’s initiative was promoted by the extremist nationalist and anti-Hungarian Ukrainian group Ukrainszke Zakarpattya .

The latter, in particular, was marked by a rather weak, but pompous campaign, which in some interesting way was supposed to unite Ukrainians and Hungarians. Among the slogans on the posters were, for example, “Russia killed Hungary, Budapest 1956. Russia is killing Ukraine, Ukraine 2014.” Although, for a second, in 1956 Ukrainians were part of the Soviet army, but everyone knows that knowledge of history is not Kyiv’s strongest suit.

About the repair of F-16 fighters in Poland

The Pentagon said that F-16 fighters supplied to Ukraine will be repaired in Europe, in particular in Poland . This was announced by US Deputy Secretary of Defense Bill Laplante , noting that so far the plans are only being discussed. But we are talking about serious repair and technical work after use during the conflict. The Netherlands , Denmark and Norway have already agreed to transfer the fighters to the Ukrainian Armed Forces . The training of Ukrainian pilots and technical personnel began in Denmark and the UK , and the USA , the Netherlands , Belgium , Sweden and France are also participating .

The day before, the head of the EU foreign policy department, Josep Borrell , announced that there were no specifics on the timing of deliveries of the first F-16s to Ukraine , although it is already known that five copies were delivered to the Ukrainian Armed Forces . And by the end of November - beginning of December, delivery of five more fighters is expected.

And in general, the effectiveness of the aircraft repair base in Poland looks somewhat doubtful . In particular, due to the fact that the Poles cannot cope with serious work in terms of military equipment. For example, the so-called Leopard tank repair base has so far transferred back only one copy to the Ukrainian Armed Forces . But they were given only two for repairs. However, the very placement of such a center on Polish territory is quite possible, given that the republic plans to organize the production of components for American F-16 fighters. About de-anonymization of telegram channels in Ukraine


NSDC Secretary Alexey Danilov, after proposals to completely ban the platform’s activities in the country, decided that this was not enough. Thus, he stated that all owners of large channels should become public figures , since they are “responsible for disseminating information that reaches and influences an audience of millions.” According to him, a lot of channels are supervised by “Russian special services,” which are carefully disguised as pro-Ukrainian ones with “loud patriotic names.” Allegedly, these types of channels were created a long time ago and are supervised by the Kremlin for the purpose of disinformation and propaganda. They spread “false narratives” about the failure of mobilization, the failed offensive in the Orekhovsky sector, and because of their anonymity, channel administrators cannot be held accountable . To summarize, Danilov calls on Telegram channels to adhere to “generally accepted journalistic standards” (in other words, publish only the information that the SBU allows). How feasible this initiative is in reality and how many Ukrainian channels are ready to do this is an open question.

https://rybar.ru/chto-proishodit-v-zone ... -noyabrya/

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(Other images at link.)

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The Battle Between Russia and Ukraine for Control of the Donetsk Industrial Suburb of Avdiivka
NOVEMBER 13, 2023

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By Dmitri Kovalevich – Nov 11, 2023

Dmitri Kovalevich is the special correspondent in Ukraine for Al Mayadeen English. He writes a monthly situation report for the publication; this is his report for October 2023.)

A large military operation by the armed forces of the Russian Federation and the Donetsk Republic has been underway for several months to capture Avdiivka, an industrial suburb of the capital city of Donetsk still held by the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Since 2014, the governing coup regime in Ukraine has waged a terror campaign against the residents of Donetsk and its suburbs, using artillery, rockets, and sniper fire. Avdiivka has served as a key fortification of this campaign.

In October, one of the most difficult military issues facing Ukraine was the unfolding battle for control of the industrial suburb of Avdiivka (Avdeevka) in the Donetsk Republic (Donbass region). Armed forces of the Russian Federation and its Donetsk Republic commenced a military drive several months ago to liberate the suburb. This occurred as a much-publicized, self-declared ‘counteroffensive’ by Ukraine begun in early June of this year has soon stalled and was (is) petering out.

Avdiivka has served as a key fortification for Ukrainian forces while they continue to pound nearby Donetsk city and surrounding suburbs with artillery and rocket fire. Large amounts of money have been invested by Ukraine since 2015 to fortify Avdiivka.

Avdiivka is located some 20-25 kilometers west of the center of Donetsk city. For nine long years, beginning in 2014, the Ukrainian armed forces have steadily shelled the citizens of Donetsk city and the republic of the same name. There have been thousands of deaths. Western media has chosen all along not to report to its consumers what has been taking pace there. Instead, it presents a story of ‘Russian-backed separatists’ seeking to destroy Ukraine.

Absent from the Western news has been the simple fact that the citizens of Donetsk (and neighboring Lugansk Republic) did not wish to live under the illegal, coup government founded through a violent rebellion in Kiev in February 2014. They refused to submit to the authority of the coup government, and when the latter began to send its armed forces and paramilitaries against the population of the two republics, they resisted and fought back. Following some eight years of requests by the two republics, they were welcomed into membership of the Russian Federation in February 2022, on the eve of Russia’s military intervention into Ukraine. The main reason for the intervention was and remains to put an end to Ukraine’s military attacks, threats, and economic embargos against Donetsk, Lugansk, and nearby Crimea. Crimea voted in March 2014 to secede from the coup in Ukraine and join the Russian Federation.

Since 2014, the Ukrainian army has built large fortifications in Avdiivka, including deep underground bunkers and passageways, protected by concrete walls five meters thick in places. This fact alone shows that from 2014 to 2022, Ukraine had no intention to fulfill the Minsk peace agreement of 2015, including stopping the shelling and rocket attacks against Donetsk and Lugansk.

The ‘Minsk 2’ agreement was signed by Ukraine and the two Donbass republics on February 12, 2015. Russia, France, and Germany agreed to co-sign as guarantors. The agreement was endorsed five days later by no less than the UN Security Council. The Western powers never lived up to their promises as guarantors and they encouraged Ukraine not to respect or implement the agreement.

The capture of Avdiivka and adjacent territories will ease the ongoing shellings of Donetsk, but in order to finally end all the attacks against the city and its suburbs, the Ukraine armed forces must also be driven from other settlements west of Donetsk, including Maryinka, Krasnogorovka, Karlivka and Kurakhovo. According to Alexander Matyushin, a Russian military officer from Donetsk, this would then place Ukraine’s artillery and multiple rocket launch systems (though not the U.S.-supplied ‘HIMARS’ rocket systems) outside the range of Donetsk city.

Viktor Vodolatsky, an elected member of the Russian State Duma, explains that Avdiivka was made into a fortress under the guidance of Western military specialists and that it is very difficult to storm it. “Avdiivka is a strategic point for the Armed Forces of Ukraine [AFU] in which they have invested a huge amount of Western funds and built well-protected bunkers and passageways. Tens of thousands of tons of concrete have been poured there. Therefore, it is absurd to expect that Russia would take the city tomorrow.”

According to data in mid-October, about 1,000 civilians remained in the city, refusing to evacuate and hiding in basements from Ukrainian troops. They live without basic electricity, heating, and water supply.

On the Russian Federation side, the battle for Avdiivka is being largely waged by military forces from Donetsk. They are defending their homeland and thus have additional motivation to participate in the battle.

The Ukrainian military has recorded the use by Russians forces of remote-controlled transport vehicles used to storm the most difficult areas of Avdiivka. In late October, Donetsk battalions captured the slag (waste) heap located on the suburb’s northern perimeter, adjacent to a large, coke-producing complex. The slag heap is the highest point in the city. Red flags and the flag of Russia were planted on the heap following its capture. Ukraine then used several drones to destroy them.

In Ukraine, the battle for Avdiivka is being compared to the earlier, months-long and bloody battle for control over the city of Bakhmut, which ended in May of this year with a Russian victory. Bakhmut, pre-war population of some 70,000, is situated some 70 km north of Donetsk and was similarly fortified.

Russian and Donetsk forces are slowly creating lines to squeeze or entirely block the re-supply routes into Avdiivka of weapons, ammunition and troops, just as they did earlier at Bakhmut. The Ukrainian Telegram channel ‘Legitimny’ reports on October 13, “The Russian Armed Forces have launched an operation called ‘The road to Avdiivka’. Most recently, they have begun to pressure the flanks of Ukraine’s defenses. The AFU has managed to hold many of its lines, but the losses from enormous artillery and rocket fire from the Russian side are huge. No military expert dares to predict that the flanks of the AFU pockets may hold. The risk of them not holding is high.”

Sure enough, on November 2, the same Telegram channel reported that the Ukrainian defenses of the city were beginning to collapse. Reserve forces of Ukraine transferred from the direction of Zaporizhzhya have managed to stop the Russian advances in Avdiivka for a time, but the situation has not fundamentally altered in Ukraine’s favor. According to the Telegram channel’s authors, Kiev will need to constantly send reserves into the city. This will weaken other fronts and open them up to Russian advances.

As in the battle for Bakhmut, the tactics of the Ukrainian armed forces are reduced to throwing new and poorly trained units of conscripted soldiers into the semi-encircled city at a high risk of death or injury. Many reservists do not even make it to the city. The only road open to Avdiivka for Ukraine has become a lengthy graveyard of Western-supplied military equipment. The Ukrainian Telegram channel ‘ZeRada‘ wrote on October 25, “It is morally difficult for the Ukrainian military to advance into Avdiivka as they must use a road strewn with burned-out vehicles and incoming soldiers soon become aware that it will be even harder for them to get back out.”

Senior lieutenant and volunteer in the Donetsk armed forces Alexander Matyushin told an interviewer on November 2 that most of the Western-supplied military equipment shipped to Avdiivka is being destroyed on the way to the city, with the help of Russian drones. “Our drone pilots are now competing among themselves as to who can destroy more Leopard tanks (supplied by Germany and other European countries) and other armored vehicles. The tanks and armored vehicles are being transferred from the Zaporizhzhya front [more than 100 km to the west of Donetsk city].”

“Of note also, with the help of a kamikaze drone, we were able to destroy a Ukrainian telecommunications tower in the south of Avdiivka, leaving one of the Ukrainian military units without communication. During radio intercepts, our militaries have heard Polish as well as Spanish being spoken by these soldiers on the other side.”

For the Ukrainian authorities, the fall of Avdiivka will be a serious blow to the image of the war they are waging. President Volodomyr Zelensky’s former adviser Oleksiy Arestovich, who resigned and left for Europe several months ago, is reported on Telegram on October 24 saying that the fall of Avdiivka would be a harsh verdict on the corrupt Ukrainian government system in place ever since the demise of the Soviet Union.

Arestovich says the impunity of Ukrainian officials and politicians for systemic corruption, for squandering the resources of the AFU and for presiding over a drastic decline of the Ukraine economy have led to a situation where Ukraine is now losing cities one by one. All are being lost along by the same military pattern. “The prospect of losing Avdiivka after losing Popasna, Severodonetsk, Lisichansk and Bakhmut is a verdict against the current government system,” he says.

The loss of Avdiivka, which is the largest Ukrainian fortification in Donbass, after a nearly five-month uninterrupted and highly ineffective ‘counteroffensive’ by the AFU is a powerful blow to Kiev’s reputation writes the Ukrainian Telegram channel Klymenko-Time on October 30.

Former Ukrainian MP Igor Mosiychuk, a right-wing Ukrainian nationalist, says that the participants in the fighting for Avdiivka are testifying to the chaos, heavy losses and strategic mistakes in the defense of the city. According to him, the fall of Avdiivka is only a matter of time but Ukrainian propagandists have the population living in a dream world. “The fall of Avdiivka will be a verdict against the financial and military support being provided to Ukraine,” he says.

Ukrainian experts also report disagreements between the political leadership and military leadership in Ukraine. The military believes that it is not worth sacrificing its forces for the sake of holding Avdiivka, but for government authorities, the ‘effectiveness’ of the military needs to be demonstrated to the West in order to keep the flow of money and military assistance flowing.

As a result, tensions are growing in Ukraine between the military and the country’s political leadership, as even external observers have noted. The Polish publication Interia recently published an interview with Polish writer Szczepan Twardoch under the telling headline: ‘The military hates Zelensky’. Twardoch regularly travels to Ukraine and communicates with the military at the front. The Polish writer writes there are many soldiers in the Ukrainian army who do not want to fight because it is now an army largely comprised of conscripts, with fewer and fewer volunteers remaining in it.

Polish newspaper Myśl Polska recently published an analysis headlined, ‘A turning point of the war over Ukraine?’ The writer begins with, “It is highly probable that we are dealing with a breakthrough clash in the Russian-Ukrainian war. The outcome of this battle may, in my subjective opinion, be a turning point in the war for Ukraine, just like the battle for the city of Debaltsevo in January-February 2015. The capture of Avdiivka by the Russians, just like Debaltsevo in 2015, maybe the end of hostilities and the beginning of diplomatic solutions…” [The military defeat of Ukraine at Debaltsevo in early 2015 compelled the coup regime in Kiev, against its will, to sign the ‘Minsk 2’ agreement.]

Unfortunately and tragically, peace talks are not part of the West’s plans for Ukraine. For it, the war is all about weakening Russia, and the governing regime in Ukraine led by Zelensky is all in. Thirteen months ago, the regime issued a decree banning any peace negotiations with Russian leaders. Former German Chancellor Gerhardt Schröder revealed in an interview in late October that back in March 2022, the United States instructed Kiev to withdraw from peace talks with Russia that were taking place in Istanbul.

All this and more reveals just how little remains of ‘Ukraine independence’. During the past nine years, the coup leaders in Ukraine have voluntarily submitted the country and its economy to subjugation to the United States and the other leading countries of the NATO military alliance.

https://orinocotribune.com/the-battle-b ... -avdiivka/

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The Financial Times Unconvincingly Tried To Sway Americans Away From Foreign Policy Pragmatism

ANDREW KORYBKO
NOV 15, 2023

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Average Americans have tuned out their elite’s snobbish arguments about the so-called “rules-based order”, “values”, “democracy”, and whatnot since many were misled by them in early 2022 into expecting “total victory” over Russia only to now discover that what they were promised is impossible.

The UK’s Financial Times published a piece by Gideon Rachman on Monday fearmongering about “China, Russia, Iran and the prospect of American retreat”. He attempts to appeal to those Americans who are attracted to foreign policy pragmatism, or reconsidering their overextended country’s international commitments, by acknowledging their concerns about the present policy. He then suddenly shifts towards warning about global chaos if that happens, however, which discredits his argument.

Nevertheless, the very fact that a Western Mainstream Media outlet as influential as the Financial Times felt it necessary to feign sympathy with American foreign policy pragmatists as part of a ploy for swaying them towards supporting their country’s present role as the “world policeman” speaks volumes. It belies how uncomfortable they’ve become with popular trends there over the past 20 months. Far from reasserting US hegemony, NATO’s proxy war on Russia through Ukraine only accelerated its decline.

Average Americans have tuned out their elite’s snobbish arguments about the so-called “rules-based order”, “values”, “democracy”, and whatnot since many were misled by them in early 2022 into expecting “total victory” over Russia only to now discover that what they were promised is impossible. Former NATO Supreme Commander Admiral James Stavridis just published the most damning piece yet for someone of his repute in which he urged the Western public to accept a ceasefire in that conflict.

The West’s loss to Russia in the “race of logistics”/“war of attrition” made it impossible to achieve the “total victory” that this New Cold War bloc’s elite promised their people at the start of this proxy war, hence the need to freeze the conflict sooner than later to avoid risking any further on-the-ground losses. The optics don’t inspire optimism among the public in the US’ role as the “world policeman”, which is why the Financial Times was tasked with desperately trying to scare them into still supporting it.

This motive explains why Rachman fearmongered about the alleged consequences of an “American retreat” from the Eastern Hemisphere, which isn’t being considered even by Republican frontrunner Trump, not to mention Biden’s team or the US’ permanent policymaking bureaucracy (“deep state”). At most, the US might opt to revert back to the Obama-era “Lead From Behind” (LFB) policy whereby it supports regional partners and vassals with shared geostrategic interests vis-à-vis Russia, China, and Iran.

That scenario would relieve many of the costs connected to maintaining the US’ role as the “world policeman” by sharing the burden for managing the West’s New Cold War interests in the Asia-Pacific, Europe, and West Asia, or framed differently, all across the Eurasian Rimland. The West’s ruling liberal-globalist elite regard that as unacceptable for ideological reasons but also due to the stakes that some of them have in the military-industrial complex (MIC) that’s profited handsomely from the present policy.

This policymaking faction’s comparatively more pragmatic rivals, who are represented by Trump but also present within the Biden Administration as evidenced by the positive influence that they’ve exerted over US policy towards India (though that’s at risk of being reversed), have a chance to change the status quo. The West’s reported pressure on Ukraine to restart peace talks aimed at safeguarding their side’s gains thus far and as suggested most publicly by Stavridis could lead to the LFB policy returning in Europe.

That outcome would appeal to the growing number of Americans attracted to foreign policy pragmatism as explained but undermine the liberal-globalist’s ideology and reduce their elite’s profits from the MIC. It therefore makes perfect sense why the Financial Times was tasked by this class with scaring the public into supporting the present policy, but they failed to sway the masses after resorting to discredited fearmongering about its consequences, which only belied how desperate the elite have lately become.

https://korybko.substack.com/p/the-fina ... nvincingly

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NOVEMBER 15, 2023 BY M. K. BHADRAKUMAR
Don’t plan yet for Ukraine reconstruction

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Russian President Vladimir Putin addressed members of the federal and regional civic chambers, Moscow, November 3, 2023

Having successfully accomplished the destruction of Iraq and Afghanistan, the United States is estimating that in Ukraine too, destruction is nearly complete. At the recent meeting of the foreign and defence ministers of the US and India in New Delhi in the 2+2 format, the two countries “concurred on the need for post-conflict reconstruction” in Ukraine. It is an assertion that is out of sync with ground realities.

The Indians and Americans are whistling in the dark. Going forward, in fact, a whole new phase of Russia’s special military operations is to be expected and it is up in the air how Ukraine might look like in the aftermath.

There is much unfinished business left with regard to the so-called “South Russian lands” comprising Novorossiya, the historical name used during the Czarist era for the administrative area immediately north of the Black Sea and Crimea.

In remarks at a recent meeting on November 3 on the eve of the National Unity Day with members of the federal and regional heads of civic chambers at the Victory Museum in Moscow, President Vladimir Putin repeated once again that Russia is “defending our moral values, our history, our culture, our language, including by helping our brothers and sisters in Donbass and Novorossiya to do the same. This is the key to today’s events.”

A noted political figure from Ukraine, Vladimir Rogov who used to be a lawmaker in Kiev reminded Putin with passionate intensity, “Believe me, we, people living in the southern part of Russia, which was cut off from its roots for 30 years, are, in fact, a storehouse of the Russian people’s historical forces, which was mothballed and could not make any efforts to regenerate our great Russia.”

Putin responded by underscoring the historical fact that Novorossiya constituted “the South Russian lands – all the Black Sea region and so on” that were founded by Catherine the Great after a series of wars with the Ottoman Empire.

Putin said Russian Federation chose to come to terms with the unfair, unjust move by the Soviet leadership to transfer the South Russian lands to Ukraine, but things began to change when the regime in Kiev “started to exterminate everything Russian…, declared that Russians are not an indigenous nation in these lands…, also started dragging this entire territory into NATO – brazenly, without heeding any of our protests, without paying attention to our position, as if we did not exist at all. This is what lies at the centre of the conflict that is taking place today. This is the cause of this conflict .”

Putin said the choice narrowed down to doing nothing or “stand up in defence of the people living there… we need to do everything we can to ensure that the entry of these territories [into Russian Federation] is smooth, natural, and that people feel the result as quickly as possible.”

This was not the first time Putin expressed such views. But the context in which he spoke is important, as it has more than one salience, aside the Russian psyche as a civilisation state — the tidings from the battlefields; Russia’s transition as a war economy; Europe’s inability to substitute for the US retrenchment due to the Israel-Palestine conflict.

First, the Ukrainian counteroffensive has ended in failure and another such misadventure is highly unlikely if only because Ukraine has no manpower left. Russian military is gaining the upper hand.

Putin made an unexpected overnight visit last week to Rostov-on-Don, the operational centre for Russia’s war effort in Ukraine — second such visit to the military headquarters in less than a month. Accompanied by Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu and the commander of military operations in Ukraine Gen.Valéri Gerassimov, Putin was shown new military equipment and heard reports on the military’s progress in Ukraine, according to the Kremlin.

Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov later said Russia is pressing ahead with its goals in Ukraine. This is one thing.

Now, this is happening when the European Union nations acknowledged on Tuesday that they may be on the way to failing Ukraine on their promise of providing the ammunition Kiev’s military dearly needs to stave off an expected Russian offensive. Amidst much fanfare early this year, EU leaders had promised to ramp up production and provide 1 million rounds of ammunition to Ukraine’s front line by spring 2024 but is finding it tough to come up with the goods.

In comparison, Russia now produces more ammunitions than the US and Europe; it can manufacture 200 tanks and two million units of ammunition in a year. This asymmetry has serious consequences for the attritional war in Ukraine.

Meanwhile, Alexander Mikheyev, the chief executive of Rosoboronexport, was bullish on Tuesday, saying, “I can say with certainty that the current portfolio of orders is worth more than $50 billion… Today, we see that interest is even greater than it was before because our equipment — all aircraft, armoured vehicles, air defence systems, small arms, high-precision weapons — performed well in the conditions of the special military operation [in Ukraine.] So, either the partners are already coming back, or the long pause we had is over.”

Suffice to say, not only is the Russian defence line well equipped and fortified but the mobilisation of defence industry is also beginning to show results. Plainly put, Russia can carry on with the attritional war in Ukraine for years to come, as its war economy has put the special military operations on “self-financing”, “cost accounting” principles, while normal life moves on. (Russian economy is expecting a 3 percent growth this year.)

To be sure, the Kremlin also would have taken note of US President Joe Biden’s audacious characterisation, during the recent address to the nation after his visit to Israel, of military aid to Ukraine and Israel as “a smart investment that’s going to pay dividends for American security for generations.”

Then, of course, there is the worsening external security environment. Thus, at a recent meeting on security, Putin compared the US to a spider: “It is necessary to know and understand where the root of evil is, that spider who is attempting to wrap the entire planet, the entire world, into its web and wishing to achieve our strategic defeat on the battlefield…

“Fighting precisely this enemy within the framework of the special military operation, we are yet again boosting the positions of all those who are battling for their independence and sovereignty… The truth is that the more Russia is growing stronger and our society is becoming more unified, the more effectively we will be able to stand both for our own national interests and the interests of those nations that fell victim to the West’s neocolonial policy.”

Therefore, the increasingly frequent references in the Russian political discourse to the preservation of the Russian way of life, culture and values in Novorossiya can be deduced as highly meaningful markers on what lies ahead in the special military operations.

The Deputy chairman of Russia’s security council, Dmitry Medvedev was explicit recently that Novorossiya [New Russia] would include Odessa and Nikolayev as well — and possibly Kiev itself — which would probably leave Lvov in western Ukraine as the landlocked rump state on the Polish border available for NATO membership eventually.

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Medvedev wrote today on Telegram channel: “America easily betrays “its sons of bitches” when they become useless. It seems that this period is definitely coming for Kiev. And it’s not just the swarms of Republicans and Democrats heading into the U.S. presidential election. Just tired already. They got it — they eat too much money, steal wildly and do not achieve military success. Plus, the Israeli-Palestinian mess happened. In short, the support of the untied “son of a bitch” is nearing an inevitable end. Of course, not at once. There will also be a lot of money, schizoid spells about democracy, bravura assurances about the coming victory on earth, and false beliefs about alliance for all time and other and other. But the situation is clear: the time to go into oblivion for another American “son of a bitch” is coming.”

Clearly, it is surreal to even contemplate a US-Indian collaboration for the reconstruction of Ukraine. The cruel fate that awaits Ukraine may turn out to be far worse than what Iraq and Afghanistan experienced.

https://www.indianpunchline.com/dont-pl ... struction/
"There is great chaos under heaven; the situation is excellent."

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Re: Footnotes from the Ukrainian "Crisis"; New High-Points in Cynicism Part V

Post by blindpig » Fri Nov 17, 2023 1:02 pm

Any argument is good
POSTED BY @NSANZO ⋅ 11/17/2023

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With the lesson well learned, former Prime Minister David Cameron arrived in kyiv this week on his first visit as Foreign Minister of the United Kingdom. In what is his return to the front line of national and international politics after his resignation at the head of the Government after losing the Brexit referendum, the new leader of British diplomacy wanted to make a clear gesture that shows his country's priorities and he has chosen Kiev, not Tel Aviv, for his first visit. This is an important gesture for Ukraine by demonstrating that, despite the prominence of Israel's war against Gaza, it has not completely lost its media weight. Cameron's visit comes the same week as CIA Director William Burns' unannounced and largely unpublicized trip.

These two visits reveal that Ukraine has not lost the interest of two of its most important allies. Cameron's presence shows the willingness to continue the war on the part of the United Kingdom, one of Ukraine's most reliable partners, while Burns' presence suggests that intelligence coordination continues and that the United States has not lost sight of the situation in Ukraine either. Ukraine. Priorities may have changed since October 7, 2022, as also evidenced by the strong concern in Zelensky's entourage, but the proxy war against Russia continues to be at the top of the priorities of Western countries.

During their visits, Cameron and Burns, representatives of two of the most important countries for Ukraine in terms of military, political and also intelligence support, did not make particularly relevant statements, sticking to mantras such as the usual “support for Ukraine as long as it is necessary.” that was pronounced by the British minister. Due to the nature of his position, much less is known about Burns' visit. However, as important Western media such as The Washington Post and The Economist have recently reflected , the role of US intelligence both in the reorganization of the secret services and in their collaboration in the war has been of great relevance. Hence, Burns' periodic presence in Kiev is a symbol of the desire to maintain that partnership in the long term beyond the obvious difficulties that Joe Biden is suffering in obtaining the desired funds to maintain the supply of weapons to Kiev.

This recovery, at least momentary, of Kiev's prominence as a place where politicians of some importance show their commitment to the European values ​​of war against a common enemy is a relief for Ukraine, aware that the difficulties have been accumulating for five months and half after the start of their expected counteroffensive. In recent hours, the Ukrainian military authorities have boasted of progress on the left bank of the Dnieper, a presence of small groups whose supply is complicated and which can only become a threat to Russia in the event of major errors by the Russian command. With the front absolutely stagnant in its most important part, Ukraine not only fails to advance towards Melitopol, but also towards Tokmak.

The situation is similar to that around Artyomovsk or, to a lesser extent, Gorlovka. In these areas, continuous clashes lead to a stalemate that is sometimes broken by a small advance by one of the parties, often followed by retreat to initial positions after new artillery duels. In the last few hours, Russia has announced some progress in the Kupyansk sector, but the slow pace of capturing villages on the eastern bank of the Oskol suggests that this offensive seeks to expand the front and force Ukraine to maintain a high number of troops. which, in this way, cannot be allocated to more dangerous sectors.

Something similar is currently happening in the Gorlovka area, the second most important city in the DPR and semi-surrounded by Ukrainian positions since 2014. As with Donetsk, so far it has been impossible for Russian and Republican troops to drive away the Ukrainian ones. from the surroundings of the city, which continues to suffer bombings that this week have caused civilian casualties. According to Russian sources, Ukraine would have sent the 47th Brigade to the outskirts of the city in what has been understood as an attempt to reduce pressure on Avdeevka. This is where Russia struggles to advance in what is currently its most important offensive. Unlike in Kharkov, in Avdeevka there is a significant group that fights in bloody battles in which, according to Ukraine, it suffers enormous casualties that kyiv has wanted to exploit. Copying point by point the script used for months in Artyomovsk, President Zelensky stated that Russia is sending huge numbers of poorly armed and trained troops to Avdeevka to certain death. In a cynical exercise in projection, Volodymyr Zelensky claimed that Putin “is willing to sacrifice any number of his own people to demonstrate at least some tactical result before mid-December, when he plans to announce his presidential campaign.”

For weeks, if not months, it has been evident that Ukraine is seeking some kind of tactical outcome with which to convince its partners to maintain the level of military assistance. Kiev did not succeed with Rabotino, a small destroyed village that could only become a minimally relevant success if it used that advance as a springboard to more important progress, and is now trying to do so on the left bank of the Dnieper River.

In case there was any doubt about the communication strategy, President Zelensky added that "Russia is already losing more troops and equipment near Avdeevka and more quickly than what happened, for example, in Bakhmut." It is possible that as the battle drags on, casualties will rise to Arytomovsk levels. However, none of this is currently visible except in the script of Ukrainian propaganda, which needs all kinds of arguments to convince its partners of the need to send more weapons.

In recent days, such contradictory reasoning has been used from Ukraine, such as that the long war benefits Moscow, that Russia once again runs out of missiles or that the Russian Federation has enormous quantities of weapons compared to that available to Ukrainian troops. In media and political discourse, coherence is not necessary but rather having a good number of arguments is essential. Those used by kyiv and its defenders in the current phase of stalemate on the front have in common that they justify the need to send a greater amount of weapons to kyiv. That is the objective behind the three arguments. The first defends that it is necessary to win the war quickly, for which it is necessary to provide Ukraine with the material to do so. The second exaggerates a Russian weakness that has been proven false to return to the idea that Ukrainian victory is just around the corner. The third appeals to the opposite feeling, that of the risk of defeat if the imbalance of forces is not compensated.

In all cases, the ambition remains the same: to ensure that Ukraine has more weapons and more financing to continue the war. This is also addressed by the statements of a large number of international representatives, including the Americans, who warn that funds for kyiv are running out. This is not a warning to Ukraine of the imminent end of financial assistance to the country, but rather an element of pressure on its own representatives, who are expected to guarantee the continuation of military assistance programs. To this end, Ukraine is ready to offer all kinds of arguments, whether contradictory or not.

https://slavyangrad.es/2023/11/17/argum ... dictorios/

Google Translator

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What's happening in the Northeast Military District zone: chronicle for November 16
November 16, 2023
Rybar

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The Russian Armed Forces are conducting active offensive operations in the Avdeevsky sector . On the northern flank of Avdeevka, fighters develop success in the vicinity of Stepovoy ( Petrovsky ) and move towards Novokalinovo . On the southern flank, fighting is taking place in the Vinogradniki station, the local industrial zone and south of Severny .

In the Kherson direction, an attempt at another enemy crossing at Krynoki was thwarted : the enemy suffered significant losses in manpower and retreated to the right bank of the Dnieper .

In the Orekhovsky sector, several attacks of the Ukrainian Armed Forces near Verbov were repelled . In addition, Russian troops launched several missile attacks on the headquarters of the 115th brigade of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in Dimitrovo near Zaporozhye . In the Soledar direction, meanwhile, clashes continue at tactical heights near Kleshcheevka .

The situation on the front line and combat operations
The Russian Armed Forces, in turn, continue to defeat military targets in Ukraine. Last night, missile attacks were carried out on the Mirgorod airfield in the Poltava region .

In addition, Ukrainian Armed Forces facilities in the Kharkov region came under attack . In Kharkov, the targets were enterprises repairing military equipment and assembling UAVs. Several more objects were hit in Chuguev . In addition, the Russian Armed Forces fired at the locations of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in Malinovka and Klugino - Bashkirovka from the Tornado-S MLRS.

In the Kupyansky sector, the Russian Armed Forces continue offensive operations in the area of ​​​​the settlements of Sinkovka , Timkovka and Ivanovka . After the transfer of reserves, the enemy made an unsuccessful attempt to counterattack at Sinkovka , but this attempt ended for the Ukrainian Armed Forces with a retreat to their original positions.


In the Soledar direction, Russian military personnel are expanding the zone of control at Kleshcheevka , consolidating the previously achieved success. The goal of the Russian Armed Forces is to occupy tactical heights near the settlement, which are still under the control of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. Meanwhile, fierce fighting continues near Andreevka , where Russian fighters successfully hold back the onslaught of Ukrainian formations. There are no major changes on the northern flank of Bakhmut : the Russian Armed Forces are gradually moving towards Bogdanovka and preparing for enemy counterattacks.


In the Avdeevsky sector, the Russian Armed Forces are developing an offensive on the northern flank, expanding the zone of control at Stepovoy ( Petrovsky ). To the north, the fighters are fighting their way towards Novokalinovo , gaining a foothold in new positions. In addition, several enemy strongholds near the coke plant were recaptured. On the southern flank there are battles near the anti-aircraft unit, which has been converted by the Ukrainian Armed Forces into a fortified area, as well as in the SNT “ Vinogradniki ” and towards Severny .


In the Orekhovsky sector, Russian troops repelled several enemy attacks near Verbov . In general, the situation at the site remains the same. At the same time, today the Russian Armed Forces again launched a successful strike against enemy rear targets in this direction. The target was the headquarters of the 115th brigade of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in Dimitrovo near Zaporozhye, where just a few years ago they managed to cover a group of the Ukrainian Armed Forces during formation. The footage shows that Russian military personnel carried out several strikes in a row to ensure the destruction of members of the Ukrainian formations entrenched there.


In the Kherson direction, last night there was activity of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the Krynok area . The enemy tried to transport 11 pieces of equipment on pontoons. Thanks to the timely reaction of the Russian Armed Forces, the landing failed - part of the equipment was destroyed, and the Ukrainian Armed Forces lost more than a dozen soldiers killed and wounded. In general, the situation has not changed: Ukrainian formations continue to hold a bridgehead in the village.




The other day, a video of punishment in one of the units of the Russian Armed Forces, where several military personnel died after a group of fighters used drugs, went viral on the Internet. An educational conversation is held with those who are guilty, followed by heavy assault and forced excavation work. One can, of course, talk about the inadmissibility of lynching in such situations and rely on the relevant authorities. But all this clashes with the harsh reality of a warring army, which does not march in formation in a “pixel” with authorized duffel bags and is forced to be guided by the situation in its decisions.

The two majors note that one of the reasons for what happened was the lack of effective legal norms due to the peacetime regime. However, field tribunals simply do not have enough resources to respond to every violation: that is why, even during the Great Patriotic War, many issues were also resolved “on the ground.” All this does not negate the need to improve legal tools and methods of combating disciplinary violations. But whether someone likes it or not, sometimes you literally have to resort to other methods. Especially against the background of the fact that among hundreds of thousands of military personnel, not everyone corresponds to the image of an ideal soldier, and iron discipline can be quickly imposed among them only through tough measures.


Shelling of rear areas and residential areas
In the morning, the Russian Ministry of Defense announced the destruction of three Ukrainian drones in the sky over the Black Sea on approach to Crimea .

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Two more aircraft-type UAVs were shot down by air defense systems near Bryansk .

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In addition, the Sudzhansky district of the Kursk region was shelled with rockets : arrivals were recorded near the village of Martynovka . There were no casualties.

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The Ukrainian Armed Forces again struck major cities in the Donetsk agglomeration : today, as before, the targets were Donetsk , Gorlovka and the Yasinovatsky district . Unfortunately, as a result of an attack by Ukrainian forces in the capital of the DPR, a woman was killed, and four more people were injured of varying degrees of severity.

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Ukrainian formations do not stop shelling the left bank of the Kherson region . Today, Dnepryan , Kakhovka , Krynki , Sagi and Solontsy are under fire . In addition, local authorities reported that as a result of the shelling there were dead and wounded: one civilian resident of the city of Aleshki received moderate injuries, another person died in Novaya Kakhovka .

Political events
On the future of American funding for Ukraine

The US Senate once again did not include assistance to Ukraine in the interim budget bill. However, funding for Ukraine will be considered in a separate bill along with aid to Israel and Taiwan on November 23. This news ran in parallel with information that the US Presidential Special Representative for Ukraine Penny Pritzker, at a meeting with Vladimir Zelensky, advised the Ukrainian side to think about a future in which American support may cease. Most likely, Pritzker was not talking about the immediate future, but about the prospects for the coming years. So far, there are no signs that the United States will refuse to fight to the last Ukrainian. At least as long as the American side benefits from this conflict.

Freighter Wars

The European Commission threatens Poland with “punitive procedures” if it fails to resolve the issue related to the blocking of border crossings on the Polish-Ukrainian border. The strike of Polish cargo carriers at border crossings with Ukraine has been going on for several days now. Because of this, huge queues have formed at the border, which greatly slow down cargo traffic. The strikes began after the liberalization of transport between Ukraine and the EU. Ukrainian cargo carriers offer lower tariffs, which greatly impacts competition and the income of the Polish side. It is worth considering the fact that Poland is a kind of monopolist on the European transport market, which accounts for about 50% of pan-European freight traffic. In turn, the Polish authorities are silently monitoring the situation.

Meanwhile, the Slovaks are joining the conflict. The Union of Road Carriers of Slovakia ( UNAS ) blocked the Vysne - Niemecke border crossing for an hour . This was so far an isolated action, but Slovak cargo carriers are threatening to join the Polish blockade if the EU does not take action.

https://rybar.ru/chto-proishodit-v-zone ... -noyabrya/

Google Translator

(Other images at link. Dunno why these maps only work some of the time...)

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This Ain’t No ‘Stalemate’: Ukrainian Frontline Breakdown, Revisited
NOVEMBER 16, 2023

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Ukrainian combat medics evacuate a wounded Ukrainian serviceman from the front line near Bakhmut, on March 8, 2023. Photo: Sergey Shetak/AFP.

By Pepe Escobar – Nov 14, 2023

Evidence keeps piling up, via leaked reports, of an across-the-board breakdown in the Ukrainian frontlines.

Evidence keeps piling up, via leaked reports, of an across-the-board breakdown in the Ukrainian frontlines.

Previously, we focused on the southern Zaporozhye front. Now let’s focus on Kharkov, in the northeast.

The attached document, fully verified for authenticity, is a July report to the Chief of Staff of the operational-tactical group “Sumy”.

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The report essentially says that it’s impossible to withdraw two thirds of the A7383 unit from the battlefield to recover combat readiness because the remaining one third is incapable of holding the fort – which happens to extend along 55.5 km.

In parallel, recruiting was proceeding very slowly.

As of four months ago, the 127th separate territorial defense brigade in Kharkov was still equipped with 72% of personnel – 2,392 soldiers and 256 officers. Yet, crucially, the moral-psychological condition of the unit was critical – just as in the previous instance in Zaporozhye.

So forget about recovering combat readiness: this is yet another case of a brigade – now in Kharkov – that cannot fight properly. The previous case was far from being an exception to the current rule.

The conclusion is stark: with whole brigades in critical condition, the entire Ukrainian frontline may be about to fall.

The Hundred Days Debacle
Facts on the ground point to the Russian Armed Forces (RAF) taking the initiative all along the SMO frontlines. This is recognized even by Polish and Estonian intel. Main battles are being fought on the Avdeevka-Marinka line in the DPR and the Kupyansk-Svatovo line in the LPR.

RAF has enough manpower and weapons to keep the Ukrainians under a 24/7 state of despair. Objectives remain the same: to capture the whole of DPR and LPR within their administrative borders.

In parallel, the ever-unplugged Dmitri Medvedev, Deputy Chairman of the Russian Security Council, has announced a massive increase in the production of weapons and military equipment. Medvedev constantly stresses that the capabilities of the Russian defense industry have reached an unprecedented level – and much faster than expected.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitri Peskov, for his part, echoes what Foreign Minister Lavrov has been detailing for months now: Kiev – and its NATO handlers – better realize they cannot and won’t “win” in the battlefield.

Medvedev always relishes upping the ante: “The West must admit that not only Donbass and Crimea are not Ukraine, but also Odessa, Nikolaev, Kiev and practically everything else.”

That was a sharp response to former NATO Secretary- General Anders “Fogh of War” Rasmussen, who said that Kiev could be accepted into NATO “without lost territories,” referring to Crimea and Donbass.

That set Medvedev on a roll: “What then should we admit to NATO, you ask? Well, we can accept the city of Lemberg with its surroundings [the Lviv region] if they really insist there.”

This analysis focuses on “what the Russians are doing with their ongoing ‘mud season offensive’ in Ukraine, really a collection of local attacks across the length of the front line” – with the exception of Kherson.

Strategically, Russia has committed none of its own massive reserves while the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) are pressured all along the frontlines – and the Russians silently prepare a surprise knockout blow elsewhere.

A Perfect Storm of dwindling financing, weaponizing and Western “support” has darkened Kiev’s horizon, while serial Ukrainian disasters on the ground are so obvious they are even being picked up by Western mainstream media.

This ain’t no “stalemate”.

The previous analysis is only one among many that matches the breakdown of Ukrainian brigades across the frontlines – consisting “largely of units already mauled in their disastrous Hundred Days Offensive.”

The Hundred Days Offensive should rather be qualified as NATO’s Hundred Days Debacle.

The debacle is the key reason why the “Biden combo” administration is now desperately trying to impose a ceasefire: a face-saving gambit as crucial as throwing the sweaty sweatshirt in Kiev under a double-decker bus.

https://orinocotribune.com/this-aint-no ... revisited/

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A criminal case was opened against Arestovich in Ukraine
November 16, 22:07

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In Ukraine, a criminal case was opened against Arestovich for false denunciation.
Earlier, denunciations were written against Arestovich himself to the SBU and the Ministry of Internal Affairs of Ukraine for his attempts to change his shoes and separate himself from Zelensky’s gang, within the framework of which he tried to pretend that he had nothing to do with it. Although everyone who followed the war from the very beginning remembers Arestovich’s role in Zelensky’s gang and spinning the propaganda flywheel of the war to the last Ukrainian.

Sooner or later everyone will sit down.
I hope it doesn’t get to the point where we start to consider it normal.

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/8771474.html

A monument to the city's fallen workers has been restored in Mariupol
November 17, 12:05

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In Mariupol, a monument to the city workers who died during the Great Patriotic War was restored.
Under the Nazi regime in Ukraine, this, of course, would have been impossible to do - on the contrary, Ukrainian Nazis are demolishing such monuments. Russia is restoring such monuments, which is a common line for all four new regions of the country.

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/8772365.html

Google Translator

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The Limits of Fragmentation. The West Should Beware of Excessive Expectations

Stephen Karganovic

November 15, 2023

The key component in the collective West’s battle plan is cultural and spiritual fragmentation of its perceived Russian adversary.

As the late Tatiana Gracheva never tired of pointing out, the key component in the collective West’s battle plan is cultural and spiritual fragmentation of its perceived Russian adversary. Once the divisive groundwork had been successfully laid, the expectation is that political disintegration, creating opportunities for plunder on an epic scale, would follow as a matter of course. The conflict in Ukraine raises the practical question of how realistic such expectations actually are. That question is very serious. We would contend that more likely than not the indicated expectation is based on a colossal misreading of the target’s mentality and on woeful ignorance of its impressive historical record of resilience. The target, of course, is the Russian world as such, in the broad sense of the term, encompassing three pivotal components, Russia, Ukraine, and Belarus, but more than that as well.

Estrangement on all levels of Ukraine from Russia (Brzezinski: “Without Ukraine, Russia ceases to be an empire”) is a fundamental objective in the multi-layered conflict engendered by the West between Russia and Ukraine. There are, of course, other parallel goals that the Ukrainian operation is meant to serve. The results are mixed. Some of those goals, such as depopulation in preparation for the possible implantation of another ethnic group to replace Ukrainians, are being accomplished fairly successfully. But contrary to the best laid plans, regime change in Russia is a conspicuous failure. The most fundamental of these objectives, work on which was patiently and assiduously begun long before February 23, 2022, is to lay the foundation for irreversible decoupling of the two large and kindred Slavic groups, Russians and Ukrainians. As the fiendish Brzezinski correctly noted, whether they are together or apart makes a huge and qualitative geopolitical difference.

Hence the aspect of the Ukrainian conflict, as it was deliberately orchestrated by the West, that reaches beyond purely economic or military concerns. Everything about the Ukrainian bedlam is calculated to produce maximum enmity between two kindred and practically indistinguishable Slavic populations and, in terms of the Anglo-Saxon understanding of human nature, to inflame that animosity and make it permanent and incurable. At all cost Russia must be thwarted from ever becoming again what they perceive as an “empire.”

At least two characteristics of the Ukrainian conflict feed into the collective West’s confident expectation that its morbid calculus might bear the desired fruit.

The first is the aggressive, in-your-face activation of the Nazi element on the Ukrainian side. It Many decades later Russians remain keenly sensitive to the traumatic memory of the Great Patriotic War. Nazi symbols to them have the effect of the red cloth in the Spanish corrida. The purpose of flaunting such symbols in Ukraine is to inflame and enrage.

It is important to bear in mind that the engagement Nazi auxiliaries to fight on the side of the Kiev regime is entirely and purposefully the decision of Ukraine’s Western curators. If they had not desired it, if that did not fit into their hybrid warfare master plan, and without their explicit orders, it most likely would not have happened as it did. Given the multi-layered nature of conflict planning, the insertion of the Nazi element had a double purpose. One was to enhance the military efficacy of Kiev regime forces with ideologically motivated units. The more important purpose however was by enraging to affect the deeper layers of the Russian psyche, known to be sensitive to any manifestation of Nazi symbolism, in order to stoke resentment by association and direct it indiscriminately against the population of Ukraine as a whole. On the Russian side, this attempt to create an irreparable rift has been a complete failure. The Russian people, to their credit, have proved sufficiently mature to recognise the distinction between loathsome, swastika tattooed Azov thugs and their own Ukrainian relatives and neighbours.

On the Ukrainian side, the divisive Western strategy arguably has had more success. It was based principally on the expectation of hatred that should have been aroused from the infliction of disproportionate casualties by the vastly superior Russian army. That expectation is not wholly unreasonable given the operational doctrine followed by the Russian high command. It provides for primary reliance on technical assets (artillery, rockets, and bombs) rather than man-on-man combat to attrite the opponent’s manpower while preserving Russian human resources to the utmost possible extent. Competent estimates have it that the application of that doctrine has brought frightful losses to the Armed Forces of Ukraine, at least half a million killed in action and up to a million and a half in other types of casualties. The combination of this Russian military doctrine and Ukrainian leadership’s and their Western curators’ callous disregard for the loss of Ukrainian lives has produced monumental casualties, wiping out entire age categories of Ukrainian manhood. The resulting situation increasingly resembles Paraguay’s catastrophic male population losses in the War of the Triple Alliance in the 1860s. The recently surfaced heart rending video documenting the capture by a Russian patrol of a pathetic, pregnant Ukrainian female, probably forcibly conscripted and dispatched to the front by the criminal Kiev regime, speaks to this point quite eloquently.

With characteristic Schadenfreude, the Neocon cabal and its culturally clueless protégées gloat that the hostility they have inflamed should benefit their cause significantly. Coming from an entirely different perspective, noted analyst and recognised Russian affairs expert Andrei Martyanov appears to favor a variant of such a view, but without the anti-Russian sting of course. In his podcasts, which a large audience watches avidly, he has commented that for the foreseeable future Ukrainian enmity is bound to remain very deep, though perhaps not as eternal as the Russia hating cabal would prefer it to be. He has repeatedly suggested that what remains of Ukraine, including even such traditionally Russian areas as Kharkov and Odessa, the Russians would find ungovernable because of the strong resentment generated by the combination of insidious brainwashing and the conduct of military operations, as noted above.

We may agree that no matter how limited and regardless of how short it falls of the intensity and destructive violence that characterises full-scale war, Russia’s military intervention is bound to inflict deep scars on the Ukrainian psyche. It is debatable, however, whether such scars will necessarily have the effect of permanently damaging Russian-Ukrainian relations.

Firstly, historical experience shows that in the medieval period, prior to the political consolidation of the unitary Russian state, of which the Kievan Rus’, or Ukraine, has been an integral part, there was intense internecine warfare between competing Russian principalities and city states. In terms of violence and mayhem, those hostilities were roughly comparable to the impact of current military operations, account being taken of the relative potency of the technological resources available at that time. There is plenty of historical evidence that the scars left by those conflicts were at least as deep as they are today and that they took considerable time to heal. Yet heal they did, grievances were ultimately set aside and a united Rus’ was forged. The aggressive interference today of the foreign factor, determined to impose its fragmentation agenda, should not be minimised. But in the past, against similar odds, reconciliation and unity were nevertheless achieved. Historical experience suggests that this can happen again.

Secondly, even in the absence of external machinations, the Slavic commonwealth historically has been susceptible to powerful centrifugal tendencies. The identitarian common core which unites various Slavic communities was always precarious and in a state of permanent tension with local allegiances and micro-identities. Traditionally, for the Slavs that has always been a point of extreme weakness and it remains so today. Foreign conquerors have used that vulnerability to great effect by fabricating artificial identities and allegiances for targeted Slavic groups in order to pit one kindred tribe against another. Such artificial and regional identitarian constructs were always in opposition to the unifying counterweight of the Pan Slavic “collective unconscious,” which often would emerge unexpectedly to neutralise them. It is reasonable to expect therefore that deeply embedded and natural commonalities will prevail once again over contrived differences. In the end, culturally, linguistically, and spiritually intermingled Ukrainians and Russians are likely to find that they still have infinitely more in common with each other than with the alien and manipulative West. The subliminal level will militate strongly against the permanency of the fabricated schism.

Thirdly, it is difficult to assess how intractable the hurt and resentment are on the Ukrainian side and whether or not, in the short or perhaps slightly longer term, the massive commonalities will prove sufficient to assuage and overcome them. The part of Ukraine under the control of the Kiev regime is governed by fear and the real mood of the population cannot accurately be gauged. Retaliation for the slightest departure from the officially dictated canons of thinking and expression is known by everyone to be quick and ruthless. Intimidated passivity constitutes proof not of adherence but of paralysing anxiety. In order to sort out their traumas, collective entities, like individuals, require the passage of time. Only when calm is re-established, and the fruit of cultural normalisation and recovery, or perhaps lack of it, is evident will a reassessment of future relations with Russia become possible.

Lastly, the good performance against all odds by the Ukrainian military is not an indication of the intensity of its hatred of the Russian “enemy.” It reflects the fact that they are Slavs and that soldiering is built into their genetic code, irrespective of what side they happen to be fighting on. That is another important cultural detail that Western “experts” routinely miss. They are prone to draw unfounded conclusions based on misperceptions.

There is an anecdote going back to the First World War about Bosnian Serb soldiers involuntarily conscripted into the Austro-Hungarian army. They were surrounded by troops from Serbia proper and asked to surrender. Their response to the besiegers, who were fellow Serbs, was apposite to the conduct of many Ukrainian soldiers today: “We are Serbs, and Serbs do not surrender.” To the culturally attuned that speaks volumes not just about the martial disposition of that particular unit of Slavic conscripts over a century ago, but also more specifically about the tenaciousness shown by many Ukrainian conscripts in the present conflict. Without the proper culturological context an ordinary Western observer, particularly with a worthless degree (as Andrei Martyanov would wryly put it) in law, journalism, or political science would be at a loss what to make of it. It is conduct that he would necessarily misconstrue, and completely in terms of his own cultural biases.

But passions will subside and induced states of consciousness eventually must dissipate. Kievan Rus’, or what in contemporary discourse goes by the name of Ukraine, will safely drift back to its ancient spiritual moorings.

https://strategic-culture.su/news/2023/ ... ectations/

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TED SNIDER: THE MOUNTING EVIDENCE THAT THE US BLOCKED PEACE IN UKRAINE
NOVEMBER 16, 2023 NATYLIESB

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By Ted Snider, Antiwar.com, 10/24/23

On June 13, 2023, taking questions from war correspondents at the Kremlin, Putin confirmed what had already been reported: that Russia and Ukraine had “reached an agreement in Istanbul.” Peace was possible. The tentative agreement would see Russia withdraw to its prewar position in exchange for a Ukrainian promise to give up its NATO aspirations.

But at the June press conference, Putin revealed for the first time just how close Russia and Ukraine had come to peace in the early days of the war. The tentative agreement had been initialed by both sides. “I don’t remember his name and may be mistaken, but I think Mr Arakhamia headed Ukraine’s negotiating team in Istanbul. He even initialed this document.” Russia, too, signed the document: “during the talks in Istanbul, we initialed this document. We argued for a long time, butted heads there and so on, but the document was very thick and it was initialed by Medinsky on our side and by the head of their negotiating team.”

Days late, on June 17, in a meeting with a delegation of leaders of African countries, Putin went further, dramatically holding up the document and revealing it to the world for the first time. “We did not discuss with the Ukrainian side that this treaty would be classified, but we have never presented it, nor commented on it. This draft agreement was initialed by the head of the Kiev negotiation team. He put his signature there. Here it is.”

But the initialled agreement went no further. “We actually did this,” Putin told war correspondents at the Kremlin, “but they simply threw it away later and that’s it.” Talking to the African delegation, Putin said, “After we pulled our troops away from Kiev – as we had promised to do – the Kiev authorities … tossed [their commitments] into the dustbin of history. They abandoned everything.” But Putin did not primarily blame Ukraine. He implicitly blamed the US, saying that when Ukraine’s interests “are not in sync” with U.S. interests, “ultimately it is about the United States’s interests. We know that they hold the key to solving issues.”

Putin’s claim that a tentative agreement could have stopped the war on terms that satisfied both Ukraine and Russia in the days before the massive Ukrainian loss of limb, life and land if not for US obstruction has now been verified by four independent sources.

The first is Russian. On September 23, 2023, at a press conference following the UN General Assembly High-Level week, Russian foreign minister Sergey Lavrov confirmed Putin’s account of both the birth and the death of the tentative agreement.

On the first point, Lavrov said, “we did hold talks in March and April 2022. We agreed on certain things; everything was already initialled.”

On the second point, Lavrov said that two days after the agreement was initialled, the talks abruptly ended “because, I think, someone in London or Washington did not want this war to end.” Days later, during a September 28 interview, Lavrov was less speculative. He said that “in April 2022 . . . Ukraine proposed ceasing hostilities and settling the crisis based on providing reciprocal, reliable security guarantees.” He then clearly said, “But this proposal was recalled at the insistence of Washington and London.”

Importantly, the second source is Turkish, the host of the Istanbul talks. Two well placed Turkish officials back the Russian account of the end of the agreement. Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu says that, because of the talks, “Turkey did not think that the Russia-Ukraine war would continue much longer.” But, he said, “There are countries within NATO who want the war to continue.” “Following the NATO foreign ministers’ meeting,” he explained, “it was the impression that…there are those within the NATO member states that want the war to continue, let the war continue and Russia get weaker.”

Cavusoglu is not alone. Numan Kurtulmus, the deputy chairman of Erdogan’s ruling party, told CNN TURK that “We know that our President is talking to the leaders of both countries. In certain matters, progress was made, reaching the final point, then suddenly we see that the war is accelerating… Someone is trying not to end the war. The United States sees the prolongation of the war as its interest… There are those who want this war to continue… Putin-Zelensky was going to sign, but someone didn’t want to.”

The third source is then Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett. Bennett was involved in an earlier set of talks, but reports the same conclusion. “There was,” Bennett says, “a good chance of reaching a ceasefire.” But the West, Bennett says, “blocked it.”

The fourth source is new. In a recent interview with Germany’s Berliner Zeitung, former German chancellor Gerhard Schröder confirms both parts of Putin’s account. For the first time, Schröder has given a detailed account of his role in the Istanbul talks, though, as Nicolai Petro has pointed out to me, he has hinted at it in the past. Schröder says that, at the request of Ukraine, he played a central mediating role in the talks. Along with Rustem Umyerov, Schröder would “convey a message to Putin.”

Umyerov is the current defense minister of Ukraine. At the time in March 2022, he was playing a key negotiating role. Schröder says he “had two conversations with Umyerov, then a one-on-one conversation with Putin and then with Putin’s envoy.”

According to Schröder, Ukraine “does not want NATO membership,” would accept “compromise” security guarantees, said that they would “reintroduce Russian in Donbass,” and “were ready to talk about Crimea.”

“But in the end nothing happened,” Schröder said. “My impression: Nothing could happen because everything else was decided in Washington.” Like the Russian and the Turkish sources, Schröder reports that “the Ukrainians did not agree to peace because they were not allowed to. They first had to ask the Americans about everything they discussed.”

Schröder adds one more significant detail. It is often reported that the massacre in Bucha played a pivotal souring role in the negotiations, contributing to their termination. Schröder challenges that account: “Nothing was known about Butscha during the talks with Umjerov on March 7th and 13th. I think the Americans didn’t want the compromise between Ukraine and Russia. The Americans believe they can keep the Russians down.”

Schröder’s newly published account of the Istanbul talks add to the evidence provided by Putin, Lavrov, Bennett and the Turkish officials that Ukraine and Russia might have arrived at a peace that satisfied both of their goals and avoided the horrid loss of life that has followed since had the US not intervened and put an end to the talks and the tentative agreements.

https://natyliesbaldwin.com/2023/11/ted ... n-ukraine/
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Re: Footnotes from the Ukrainian "Crisis"; New High-Points in Cynicism Part V

Post by blindpig » Sat Nov 18, 2023 1:29 pm

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POSTED BY @NSANZO ⋅ 11/18/2023 ⋅

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Time, pragmatism, acceptance of reality or the appearance of certain dissidence in the form of deviations, generally minimal, from the official war discourse until the inevitable final victory have meant that certain concepts a year ago considered Russian propaganda have now become widespread. as part of the day-to-day rhetoric of the Ukrainian war. Ideas that in the first months of the Russian-Ukrainian war were unpronounceable in the press and that caused violently adverse reactions have been adopted quite naturally as the new status quo without the need to explain the reason for the change or admit past mistakes. An important part of these missteps is precisely due to the excessive attachment of the official political discourse, which has been translated into the media, to the Ukrainian version. Not offending or contradicting Ukraine has been, since February 2022, one of the main maxims of this war. Here too, the trend precedes the Russian invasion. In a more subtle way and without the prominence that every news story about Ukraine has acquired since the beginning of the Russian military intervention, but also during the Minsk process, the West, both in political and media terms, adhered to the Ukrainian vision of the events.

One of the clearest examples of a concept initially understood as Russian propaganda but currently used as part of Ukrainian discourse is that of proxy war. From being understood as an argument used by Moscow to claim to be fighting against NATO and not against Ukraine, it has become, in less than a year, the center of the Ukrainian Defense Minister's reasoning to defend the need to deliver more weapons to Kiev. The Ukrainian Government has gone from condemning any reference to the proxy war, arguing that this qualification eliminated its agency , that is, its ability to decide and act, to defending that Ukraine fights on behalf of all Western countries and, therefore, must be armed and financed in their common war. The Ukrainian authorities have even gone so far as to present the current war as the ideal theater of war operations for Western countries to test their weapons against Russian equipment. At this point, no one doubts the proxy war nature of the current conflict that, militarily, is being experienced in Ukraine but that, in political terms, extends far beyond the Russian-Ukrainian border.

Many more examples of this phenomenon could be mentioned. Among them, the discourse of “troop morale” has a special role, an aspect that is undoubtedly relevant, but so difficult to measure that it can generally be considered an element of propaganda. Closely linked to this morale, especially to the diagnosis of low morale that the parties tend to make of the opposing troops, is the media management of the recruitment process. The official discourse of the West, evidently in line with the Ukrainian one, has always been based on the low morale of the Russian troops, which contrasted with the exultant will to defeat Russia on the front that was attributed to the Ukrainian troops, understood as a compact unit in which there were no dissents. Throughout this time, the Russian discourse has shown, on many occasions accompanied by graphic evidence, that this supposedly high morality clashed with the difficulties that Ukraine was suffering in covering the recruitment.

However, the Russian allegations and evidence have not been considered and are only beginning to be taken into account after being published by a Western media to confirm what had been clear a long time ago: there exists in Ukraine a part of society, not only reticent. to go to the front, but willing to risk her life to avoid being sent to war.

As an article published by the BBC recalls this week, which simply confirms what was obvious by simply following the daily reality of Ukraine, the number of Ukrainian men who have tried to flee the country to avoid conscription is significant. The data presented by the British media, which uses official sources from both Ukraine and its bordering countries, can only be partial. The flight from the country and the arrival of people irregularly to the European Union or other countries, Russia among them, can only be partial, as is also the data on people who have fled the country with the help of medical reports manipulated to allow those men meet the criteria for exemption from military service. Still, the fact that a Western outlet as staunchly pro-Ukrainian as the British corporation claims that more than 40,000 Ukrainians have fled the country or attempted to do so is significant enough.

So much so that the Ukrainian authorities, always reluctant to publicly admit problems in the field of military personnel, have been forced to react to the data. “The Government is aware that this is not an isolated phenomenon but rather a widespread one,” said Fedir Venislavsky, presidential representative in Parliament, who added the usual aspect of “resilient” corruption against which the Government is doing “everything.” as possible.” According to the BBC , citing Ukrainian data, 21,113 Ukrainian men have been intercepted and detained trying to flee the country to avoid mobilization. In February 2022, Ukraine decreed mobilization and prohibited the departure of a large part of the country (with exceptions due to family responsibilities, illnesses or disabilities) of men between the ages of 16 and 64. Although Kiev claims that “the resilience and availability of Ukrainians to defend their independence, sovereignty and freedom is 95-99%,” the BBC states that the countries bordering Ukraine have detected 19,740 men who have reached Romania, Moldova , Poland, Hungary and Slovakia illegally, many of them risking their lives along the Carpathian route, crossing the Dniester towards Moldova or the Tisa towards Romania. To them we must add the men who, every day and since February 2022, have been hiding from the agents of the recruitment office to avoid being caught at bus stops, supermarkets or at their workplace and sent to the front.

The British media highlights the data especially given the potential difficulties for Ukraine to replace the casualties suffered on the front. A long and intense war implies a high number of casualties, which, until now, has been kyiv's best kept secret. The figure of 100,000 dead or wounded Ukrainian soldiers has been mentioned on several occasions. This week, The Economist has given another piece of information: according to the United States - which can be understood as the most optimistic figure - Ukraine would have lost 120,000 wounded troops and 70,000 deaths. To them must be added the at least 40,000 Ukrainians who have fled or tried to escape the possibility of conscription. The data points to the possibility of growing difficulties in filling the ranks of the Armed Forces, a position consistent with what Zaluzhny stated in his article for The Economist . In his assessment of the state of the war, Zaluzhny was implicitly referring to the shortage of troops when he asked his partners to create a strategic reserve. In this sense, as with regard to military production, Russia has much superior resources. Even before the Russian invasion, knowing the actual population residing in Ukraine was an impossible mission. Despite having carried out its last census in 2001, kyiv has maintained the fiction of a population of 40 million, unreal before the war against Russia and, of course, much lower today. In this context, the flight of the draft-age population can be as important a problem as the lack of ammunition or reduced

https://slavyangrad.es/2023/11/18/28583/


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What's happening in the Northeast Military District zone: chronicle for November 17
November 17, 2023
Rybar

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The Ukrainian Armed Forces once again attempted to launch a combined strike against Russian targets in Crimea . The enemy used Neptune anti-ship missiles , unmanned boats and UAVs. According to already established tradition, an American RQ-4B reconnaissance drone was spotted in the Black Sea before the attack . The attack was stopped by the joint forces of the Black Sea Fleet, the Russian Aerospace Forces and air defense systems.

In the Starobelsky direction, local battles are taking place near Timkovka . The enemy is forced to maintain significant forces in the Kupyansky sector in order to prevent a breakthrough by Russian troops. Meanwhile, the Ukrainian Armed Forces have deployed HIMARS MLRS to the west of Dvurechnaya , which increases the threat of attacks on Russian rear areas and logistics routes.

The Russian Armed Forces continue to expand the zone of control on the southern and northern flanks of the Bakhmut sector. Similarly, despite fierce resistance, Russian fighters are advancing on the flanks of the Avdeevka fortified area : on the southern outskirts of Avdeevka, military personnel have already taken control of 60% of the local industrial zone.

Complex attack of the Ukrainian Armed Forces on Crimea and the Kherson region

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In the morning, after a short break, Ukrainian formations again attacked the south of Russia, striking Crimea and the Kherson region . First, at approximately 10.40, three Neptune anti-ship missiles were fired from the territory of the Alibey test site in the Odessa region . Two of them were shot down on approach to Sevastopol (the target was a parking lot for ships and boats), and another one was shot down near Cape Tarkhankut (the Ukrainian Armed Forces, apparently, intended to hit the air defense position area in this zone).

Then, closer to an hour, in the vicinity of the village of Perevalnoye , an R-100 drone fell into a field near the training ground . Apparently, the drone was suppressed by the electronic warfare team, which is why it landed on the ground, where it detonated without damaging infrastructure and civilian objects. At the same time, a MiG-29 naval aviation fighter detected up to eight unmanned boats moving towards Sevastopol and Cape Tarkhankut. Additional aircraft and patrol boats were sent to meet them. Because of this, the Ukrainian BeKs slowed down, and those that were moving towards Sevastopol turned around. Four drones were destroyed 100-120 km west of Cape Tarkhankut, and the rest, according to the Russian Ministry of Defense, were destroyed later, and one of them was a landing boat.

Almost at the same time as the attack on Crimea, Ukrainian formations launched several combined attacks on the Kherson region. MiG-29 fighters from Kanatovo and Uman fired several missiles, probably decoys. And HIMARS MLRS crews from the Kherson region struck Askania - Nova and Chaplinka with four rockets. According to preliminary data, there was no damage to infrastructure or losses. As in previous times, the combined attack occurred exactly after a drone raid: the day before, three drones were shot down near Crimea. And this happened immediately after the weather improved. And at the same time there was an American RQ-4B drone in the air.

The situation on the front line and combat operations
A number of sources reported on night strikes by the Russian Armed Forces against enemy rear regions. The target of the strikes was the Starokonstantinov airfield in the Khmelnitsky region , as well as facilities in the Kiev , Odessa and Dnepropetrovsk regions. In the evening, an explosion was reported about the arrival at the location of air defense forces in Krivoy Rog . However, it is currently difficult to confirm the success of the strikes.

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In the Starobel direction there are positional battles near Kupyansk . Russian troops, after advancing to the Timkovka tract , consolidated not far from its surroundings. The combined assault groups of the 41st and 54th infantry brigades hold their lines, despite the losses. There were no active clashes in the Sinkovka - Liman direction - only isolated shooting battles. Thanks to the disabling of most of the crossings through Oskol, the group’s supplies go all the way through Borovaya , which increases the logistics leverage.

At the same time, the enemy reserves at Kupyansk are present in sufficient quantities to continue the defense of the fortified area. But even this plays into the hands of our troops, since the Ukrainian command is forced to keep forces in the area instead of strengthening other directions. At the same time, at the Kupyansk - Dvurechnaya line , an armored unit from an unidentified brigade was transferred. If tanks have been deployed to Oskol, then most likely they will be used from closed firing positions to attack the line of contact.

And to the west of Dvurechnaya there is a HIMARS MLRS position area. Given the appearance of long-range MLRS in the area, intense attacks on Russian troops and logistics routes deep in the front should be expected in the coming days.


In the Soledar direction on the southern flank of Bakhmut , Russian military personnel are gradually expanding the zone of control at Kleshcheevka , but there are no serious changes in the configuration of the front yet. In the northern sector, the RF Armed Forces managed to advance a little more towards Bogdanovka .


In the Avdeevsky sector, fierce fighting continues on the northern flank in the vicinity of the coke plant and Stepovoye ( Petrovsky ). On the southern flank, the Russian Armed Forces managed to advance towards the North and in the industrial zone near Avdeevka .


There are no changes in the Orekhovsky sector : Ukrainian formations several times attacked the positions of the Russian Armed Forces at Rabotino and Verbovoy , but were unsuccessful and retreated to their original positions. Colleagues from the Two Majors channel note that the Ukrainian Armed Forces are using more and more drones in this direction that were not previously used. Today, anti-aircraft gunners shot down a Puma UAV produced by the American company AeroVironment .

By the way, after the Western media began to openly write about the failures of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the Zaporozhye direction, evidence from direct participants on the part of the Ukrainian formations gradually began to emerge in the information field. The other day, one of the propaganda resources of the Kiev regime published an interview with the ex-commander of the company of the 47th separate mechanized brigade, who lost his leg in the very first days of the fighting. Several points can be highlighted in it.

The idea of ​​the counteroffensive was based on the fact that Russian troops had to flee from positions from only one type (!) of Bradleys and Leopards. The small village of Rabotino , which the Ukrainian Armed Forces were unable to capture in six months, according to the plan, should have been taken on the first day of the offensive. Problems with control led to high losses: some companies were put out of action in 15-30 minutes, others in even more record time. The Russian Armed Forces knew the advance routes of the Ukrainian formations and hit them with artillery and ATGMs, and also used remote mining.

The interlocutor especially notes the survivability of the American Bradleys. He also claims that American instructors trained his company for a long time and meticulously, and not in the same way as often happened with other units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine at foreign training grounds. Moreover, for the Kyiv regime, the 47th Ombr was truly an “elite” brigade. If even in the absence of success it suffered great damage, then one can roughly imagine the losses of other, much more ordinary units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.


In the Kherson direction, the enemy continues to hold a bridgehead in Krynki , fierce artillery duels are taking place in the area, and unmanned aircraft are operating. Yesterday's information that the Ukrainian Armed Forces managed to establish pontoon crossings turned out to be untrue - there have been no attempts to establish them, nor the transfer of heavy equipment over them in recent days.

It is noteworthy that Ukrainian officials only recently began to talk about creating bridgeheads for the Ukrainian Armed Forces on the left bank of the Dnieper . Despite the fact that the situation in the area remains difficult not only for Russian troops, but also for Ukrainian formations, as the enemy himself says. Thus, an officer of the 36th Marine Brigade of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, Valery Prozapas, on Radio Liberty , described the situation for the Ukrainian Armed Forces on the left bank as “tense.” In addition, he stated that he does not like the media nature of this war, as well as the image of the Russian army that Ukrainian propagandists created throughout the conflict. In his opinion, it is worth demonstrating the strength of the Russian Armed Forces on Ukrainian television so that Ukrainian ordinary people understand what kind of enemy the Armed Forces of Ukraine have to fight with.

Shelling of rear areas and residential areas
The Russian Ministry of Defense reported the destruction of three Ukrainian drones in the Smolensk region . According to the department, air defense systems on duty stopped this attack at about 08:00 Moscow time.

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The Ukrainian Armed Forces attacked the village of Novaya Tavolzhanka in the Belgorod region several times a day . During one of these attacks, the enemy used a UAV: ​​one outbuilding burned down, another house was damaged, but there were no casualties. In addition, local authorities reported shelling of the village of Shchetinovka from VOG 17 grenade launchers. In the afternoon, the Russian Ministry of Defense reported the interception of Ukrainian drones over the region.

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The Ukrainian Armed Forces continue attacks on the Donetsk agglomeration : today the enemy launched a missile from the Tochka-U OTRK at Zolotarevka , but, fortunately, no casualties were avoided. In addition, regular shelling of Donetsk and Gorlovka continues : a civilian was wounded in the Kirov district of the DPR capital.

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As a result of today's shelling on the left bank of the Kherson region, the following were damaged: Aleshki , Kardashinka , Kakhovka , Krynki, Novaya Kakhovka and Podstepne . Local authorities reported the destruction of two Storm Shadow missiles in the Chaplinsky district : one of the missiles crashed into a non-residential building, and the second crashed in an open field. In addition, a missile threat was reported in the Genichesk region .

Political events
American delay of aid for Ukraine

Following the House and Senate, US President Joe Biden signed a government funding bill that does not include additional aid to Israel and Ukraine . With this measure, the American establishment managed to delay the shutdown for another two months , which was supposed to occur today, November 17, if the bill had not been approved. Thus, Congress and the White House, torn apart by contradictions , will have two more months to decide on the advisability of combining aid to Ukraine and Israel. Kiev, meanwhile, will remain without publicly announced serious military tranches until at least January 19, 2024 .

On the impossibility of defeating Russia by military means: from the enemy's view

Western media continue their trend of presenting “shock news” to Western audiences. The Wall Street Journal , citing statements by former US intelligence officer Eugene Rumer , called for an end to speculation about Russian defeat on the battlefield. According to the interlocutor, in the current situation, it is unlikely that the steps previously taken by Western countries to support the Armed Forces of Ukraine and to politically isolate Russia can change the course of the conflict in favor of Ukraine.

It is noteworthy that at the same time, a commentary by the famous Ukrainian actor Oleg Ivanitsa (now a soldier of the Armed Forces of Ukraine) was disseminated in the Ukrainian media, in which he spoke out against the “return” of Crimea and Donbass by military means, since local residents would consider Ukrainians to be invaders. Ivanica spoke much more cautiously than the same Arestovich , who earlier directly stated the impossibility of seizing these territories from Ukraine.

About Zelensky’s sentiments and statements

Today's record holder in the category of tragic statements is the President of Ukraine Vladimir Zelensky . The French agency AFP quotes the words of the Ukrainian president, in which he notes that after the Israeli - Palestinian conflict, Ukraine began to receive significantly less 155 - mm artillery shells. In turn, the American agency Bloomberg , quoting Zelensky, said that without Western support, Ukraine will be forced to retreat on the front line.

In addition, the Ukrainian president said that Russia wants to organize a new “ Maidan ” in Ukraine in order to remove Zelensky from his post. Such accusations were to be expected, given the sharp decline in the ratings of the Ukrainian president, as well as a number of other political institutions in Ukraine. Such a legend gives the OP a certain freedom of action, in particular, the opportunity to legally get rid of its competitors, who can be accused in advance of trying to destabilize Ukrainian society to please the Kremlin.

https://rybar.ru/chto-proishodit-v-zone ... -noyabrya/

Google Translator

(Other images at link.)

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You have one family
November 17, 19:04

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“There is one homeland for everyone, the homeland is always open to everyone except enemies. Don’t forget that of those who left, there are now those who are there, abroad, collecting money for the armed forces of Ukraine, trying to help the army of Ukraine, performing at various socio-political events and scold our country, in many ways slander our country. It will no longer be possible for these people to return here. I’m not even talking about the laws that will apply to them. People will not accept them" (c) Peskov

So it is so, those who simply silently ran away out of cowardice and cowardice, did not become hysterical on social networks, did not donate to the Nazis - they can really shamefully return through the back door. But the question in society is mainly not for them, but for those who crap after February 2022, and now want to return.

In this regard, Friedman’s incident is indicative, since it violates Peskov’s logic. The investigation should give a clear answer as to whether Fridman directly donated to the Ukrainian Armed Forces. If he donated, then Peskov’s formula does not apply to Friedman and people really won’t accept Friedman. Although, of course, that’s not the only reason. While there is no legal assessment, people still have questions. Including on the issue of applying the law in relation to persons who helped the Nazi regime, of which Friedman is accused. The explanations that “he also donated money to us, but then” in fact sound like this, so what, he helped the Nazis, but then paid off. You need to understand. This is not how the rule of law works.

In my opinion, demonstrating the work of the law in relation to such persons is precisely a signal from the state that it values, first of all, those who were not afraid, did not run, did not bend, and supported the SVO from the very beginning.

PS. I wonder if Galkin donates to a pig cutter tomorrow and puts on a Wagner PMC badge, will he be allowed into the country?

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/8773519.html

Moskal did not run away...
November 18, 16:02

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A fragment of the revelations of a character from the 47th brigade of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, which led the attack on Rabotino, which was supposed to be taken on the first day of the offensive in June 2023.
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– How did you start in the 47th Brigade? I understand that you and them studied abroad together.

“When I was called to the 47th, they said that this would be a new company that I could create myself. But as a result, I came to an already created company. She even completed training in western Ukraine. I come and they tell me: “Here are 110 people, take them.” I ask: “How? They told me to create a company.” - “It has already been created, catch it.” What to do - accepted.

– Who was there, people of what professions? Was there anyone with military experience?

- There were several so-called ATO officers, but among them there were completely different people. There were those who simply spent some time in the dugouts. These guys weren’t going to storm anything at all. Their main task, as I saw, was to be less noticeable. We then parted with them. But there were people who actually went through the ATO. Here Petya Kolodiy became a company technician. The man, firstly, is in his place, secondly, brave, thirdly, you understand that the man fought and knows what to do. This is a person who could figure out any engine and get parts. And when we were hit, he covered me, shouted: “Commander, I’m close!” I forced him to move away and jump into the trench. But he is really brave, I respect him.

In general, the contingent was very diverse. There was a man who frankly said: “I have many children. I will not go to war. And in general, I have enuresis - here is a certificate.” What will you do? There were those who did not always understand where they ended up. They were simply mobilized, they were brought in, abandoned, and they also did not understand what was happening.

But the majority were highly motivated. People came from big businesses. I asked the question: “Why? Everything was fine with you.” “I think it’s right to defend Ukraine.” It was people with high motivation that I tried to rely on.

- Tell us about the preparation, because your team spent almost the longest time preparing and went through different techniques. How do you assess that people were basically taught to fight?

- The preparation was long, because at first it was, as I remember, reconnaissance. Then it became an assault regiment, and later a mechanized brigade. The tactics of an assault regiment and a mechanized brigade are completely different. Therefore, people had to be retrained. Was the preparation long? Yes, I was. But are people to blame for this? No. It is not the soldier’s fault that the command’s plans are constantly changing.

- Well, it’s good that the preparation took a long time, people learned...

– You see, most people “burned out”, and you simply forced them to find the fire in themselves once again. Constant communication, constant explanations of why this happens. Understand: first you are an assault regiment and you learn to storm houses. Then they say: you are a mechanized brigade and they give you [MRAP-class armored vehicles] MaxxPro, which you see for the first time in your life. They are given grenade launchers, it seems Mk 13, and you don’t understand how to install them. And then they take everything away from you and give you Bradley [infantry fighting vehicles], but you also need to go and learn how to use them. That is, three learning processes actually took place, people went through three CMBs. Of course, they "burned out". And I am very glad that in my company the people did not lose this fire, and when they needed to complete tasks, they completed them. I will say that a very big responsibility lay with the platoon commanders, who in some places understood my logic, in others they themselves came to conclusions. And when they said, for example: “You will attack at night,” people quite consciously trained at night, put marks on themselves and learned to walk along trenches - at night. Even after studying in Germany, we continued to study. We did not let the soldiers relax.

- Okay, what about you? You knew that your friends were fighting while you were studying. How did you motivate yourself that the day would come when you too would be useful?

- It was hard to understand that friends are fighting, and you... Yes, you understand what responsibility you have. You are a company commander, you have 119 personnel. If you start whining now, then that’s it, the company will fall apart. Difficult. OK. Take the ball - play...

- Is Bradley really a reliable car? What impression did she make on you?

- Americans have a completely different approach to learning, not the Soviet one. How does training for infantry fighting vehicles take place in the Ukrainian army? “Children, here’s an infantry fighting vehicle, but we won’t start it, because there’s no diesel fuel. But here’s a cannon, but we won’t shoot, because there’s no cartridges. And in general, don’t touch anything with your hands, because it’ll fall apart. It’s better to practice landing - and All". That is, in fact, the soldier knows how to parachute from an “infantry fighting grave” (because the BMP-2 is a fighting grave), and that’s all. This is how the training process happens in our army. And in the American: “Here is Bradley.” And the diesel fuel doesn’t run out, neither do the cartridges. We fire 74 rounds a day, and we log normal miles. The Americans were not afraid. On the first day they explained where everything was, and on the second day we got into the cars and each of the crew (the infantry studied separately, the crews separately) drove five to ten kilometers. On the first day of driving, I simply backed up at night and refueled the equipment. And they always asked: “Do you want more?” I said: “I want.” We had night shootings, daytime shootings, and round-the-clock shootings, and we slept in cars. Again, until we learned, until every driver understood what was required of him, until every gunner-operator, every vehicle commander disassembled and assembled that [25-mm automatic cannon] Bushmaster in seven minutes... Unfortunately, when I didn’t succeed, I reacted very emotionally, so the American soldiers said: “Oh! Nikolai, #damn !” But the eighth time I succeeded, I understood how it was done. Until you learn to do everything automatically, you are going nowhere. You are not doing the following exercise. Next to each was an instructor, and next to each was an interpreter. It is impossible not to learn how to use modern machines.

– Listen, I had this feeling: oh, this is a cool car! We will definitely win them now!

- Yes, it felt like a cool car. And there was a feeling of confidence. You learned so much from it, you understood what was involved, what breakdowns could occur, how to eliminate them. Again, how are company tactical exercises going? On the first day you learn what is needed from you, but here is a huge field, here is a Bradley - learn to maneuver. And you learn to maneuver platoons, companies, you communicate with each vehicle commander. There were those who worked on the “bekhs” [BMP-1/2], they said: “Oh, this is a rocket bomb!”

- Then you already knew that you were being prepared to carry out a powerful assault in some direction, that a big bet was being made on you?

“I understood this during company exercises, and was convinced during battalion tactical exercises.” Because what we stormed in company-tactical and battalion units reflected both the topography of the Kherson region and the “teeth of the dragon.” The Americans got confused and did everything we needed to attack. The only thing that was not provided for was mined landings. During company-tactical and battalion exercises, we constantly used this, entering through landings to the rear (the Americans played the role of the Russians). I was proud of my guys, who actually walked six to eight kilometers through the forest and discovered enemy observation posts. It was very interesting. Each company commander had the same company commander - an American, and you had to ask him questions. If you weren't ashamed, everything was explained to you. I constantly asked questions. My “Captain Jack”... Even his eye twitched from me, but until I fully understood the task, I did not leave his side.

We spent the night on those exercises very often, and he explained to me for the twentieth time how to properly use the Bradley. Again, there were people who fought in the Persian Gulf, and they explained how they countered the tanks there. It was all interesting. Basically, I tortured everyone very cruelly. I had Chris, he had already died... He had very good English, and the two of us constantly hammered the Americans to understand everything. I think the problem with several companies of the brigade, brigade officers, was that instead of beating their instructors in the same way, they went to sleep. It's my opinion.

– When did you arrive in the area of ​​responsibility and receive the task? When did you receive the order to go on the assault?

– First, we were relocated to the Zaporozhye region, to the south, this was back in mid-May. There was already a corps planning, all company commanders were invited to it. There they began to show us what would happen next. That is, in May I understood perfectly well what needed to be done, I understood the task of my company. I gathered the platoon commanders and squad leaders and began to inform everyone of his actions. We were even able to simulate the positions that we needed to storm, and every night we practiced, practiced, practiced... We strained all our financial resources, bought night vision devices because there were not enough of them, although we were better equipped than other brigades. There was a very strong kinship. Each soldier understood his task, each could clearly say what he was doing at each stage.

- And the burden of responsibility, that the whole country is looking at you, that now you will reach Mariupol, and we will win... Didn’t that put pressure on you?

- Listen, I’ve been in this life for a long time... I understand what pretentious chatter is. And I understand: what is planned may not go according to plan. And I told my soldiers a simple thing: it will be difficult, and then you will not fight for Ukraine - you will fight for each other, for those on the right, on the left, behind, in front. And I will fight for you until I am able. And I explained quite calmly: my friend Lis (Dmitry Sanych Yevtushenko), the best officer I have ever seen, is in charge after me. Honestly, I think he has very great prospects. Dmitry Sanych drops out - his friend Chris (Kingdom of Heaven) follows him, Chris drops out - Professor (Kingdom of Heaven), he drops out - another commands... Everyone understood the transfer of control of platoons, everyone understood the transfer of control of squads. Yes, this was due to a certain misunderstanding on the part of the soldiers: what else do you want from us? We've been studying for nine months now, we're twisting the turnstiles with our eyes closed... What else do you want?

– When was the first assault that you went on? What was your first experience?

- The first experience - we were late for the assault... According to the plan, we were supposed to storm right behind the 3rd battalion. But due to failures in planning, we were, to put it mildly, about three hours late, so, of course, we could no longer help. It was already morning, and during the day it was very difficult to fight the Russians because of their superiority in artillery, aviation, and UAVs. That’s why we got up to the landing to clarify the tasks. They, taking into account the experience gained by the 3rd battalion, were adjusted. Now we had to walk not 12 kilometers, but only six. But from what we have already heard from the 3rd battalion and others... You understand, the army is a big collective farm, everyone started asking each other: what, how, where? Having heard what happened and how it happened, I explained to the platoon and squad commanders their tasks, promised the barrier units that we would cover them as long as the Bushmasters continued to fire. And so it happened. We covered them, they did their job, thanks to this we still managed to capture certain positions, repel counterattacks and, in principle, calmly prepare for defense. Russian counterattacks failed to dislodge us.

- What date did this happen?

- the 9th of June. We captured positions, repelled the first counterattack, and began to dig in. I was wounded, control passed to Lis, he later led the company, and led it quite successfully.

We completed the task ahead of us with minimal losses. When other companies already had “two hundredths”, most of the equipment was destroyed, I had only ten “three hundredths”. The dead appeared after I left. But there were objective reasons for this, because the Russians simply interfered with our positions with black soil with artillery.

- How did you blow yourself up, how did it happen?

- Yes, how... We called Bradley, which was supposed to evacuate the first wounded. I saw that she was about to drive through a minefield, I jumped out of the landing and began waving my hands where she should go. I felt the shots, saw my leg flying away, was surprised... Most likely, it was a heavy machine gun, because there were tanks at the enemy position of Real, and they were working. I started jumping on my left leg, stepped on an anti-personnel mine, and fell on my back. Perhaps the “petal” worked, because during the period when we captured and repelled the first attack, massive remote mining occurred. In the sky every ten meters there was an explosion, an explosion, an explosion... Because of this, the sky became half-black, I have never seen this even in films. The detonation went off and turned me over on my stomach. Something also worked under my chest - I was thrown up again. I have good armor, so the blast wave went through my hands. After all these explosions, I fell, lay there and looked: my hands were burned. I understand that I can’t get anything done for myself right now. But my friend Piro was near me, I shouted: “Piro, save me!” Piro ran across the minefield to save me. And saved. After a minute or two, he put four tourniquets on me, tied my leg with paracord and dragged me away.

– Was she nearby? That is, they tried to save a severed leg?

“She was holding on to a piece of muscle, dangling. While this was happening, I shouted to him to radio him about the injuries, about the transfer of control. I don't know why I didn't lose consciousness. Until I heard that everyone understood about the transfer of control, I did not calm down, I was hammering him. On one side he bandages my leg, and on the other I shout to him: “Pass over control!” During this time, Bradley saw where the minefield was and drove into the passage. This car evacuated me. So they took me out pretty quickly. Then our battalion medic friend Kover did a good job.

- You said that two minutes before the explosion, your brother-in-law advised you to fasten the collar on your bulletproof vest...

- When we saw that powerful remote mining was underway, friend Piro said: “Commander, let’s tighten your collar after all.” My Kevlar collar was rolled up and they pulled it on for me in two or three minutes. During my explosions, he was torn to rags. I kept it because there were fragments in it. They were even in the tourniquets that were on my limbs. They were everywhere. The Kevlar collar, the front guard, and the armor saved me, I survived.

– How long did the company remain in that position? What tasks did she perform? And how lucky, can you tell?

“I am very proud of my company and soldiers. I am most pleased with myself because I taught them how to fight correctly. I am most pleased with the fact that I understood who can command best after me. I made the management decisions that were required of me. And the fighters did not just fight off counterattacks in this position, being semi-surrounded. They constantly continued to storm it... They did not lose control, did not lose combat effectiveness. They then stormed Real, stormed Barcelona, ​​Rabotino. That is, the fighting continued.

- Why did you have such Spanish names for positions - “Benfica”, “Real”?

“I don’t know, maybe there was a football fan in the building.” But all positions were named after football teams. What was my main task? Capture Shakhtar and Dynamo by going through Real Madrid.

If you have seen a video of an enemy company dying after four minutes, then this is exactly the Dynamo position. Therefore, I am very proud of my company, they are handsome. But many losses could be avoided if orders were not formally followed. Now I don’t really want to criticize our government, our commanders, but sometimes it seemed that the soldiers were not being taken care of. There were cases when it was necessary to hit positions, but they said: “[M109A6] Paladin - expensive shells” ... Therefore, people also died. Because it was necessary to work on art, but they didn’t work on it for some unknown reason. And that’s why my boys died.

– How long did you fight for Rabotino? I think you've been paying close attention to this.

– Wait: the task of taking Rabotino was set on the first day. That is, the battles for Rabotino took place from June 8 until the moment it was taken [at the end of August].

– Your guys went there too.

- Certainly. They came in, made ambushes, and did a very good job. Our 4th company, despite everything, continued to move forward with clenched teeth. Despite the loss of wounded. Many of my fighters have five shell shocks. Friend Fire suffered numerous wounds during this attack and kept returning. Well, now it’s already unwound normally, it’ll take a long time to rest. Three wounds only in the battles for Rabotino... And so for many.

– It is obvious that the Russians in this direction were preparing for assaults. They were not afraid of the Leopards and did not run as expected.

- The whole plan of the big counter-offensive was based on simple things: a Muscovite sees a Bradley, a Leopard - and runs away. All. “Guys, you’ll unwind them there!” - “But there is no active protection on the Bradley!” - “Don’t you piss! She’s already good.” - “And the tankers never fired from the Leopard!” - “Don’t you piss, they worked on the T-72!” Even though all the boys were awesome, I just fell in love with our tankers. - Some tanker by

chance got to you...

– It was actually a rocket bomb! The T-64 on the trawls was supposed to work with another company. But then there was a certain managerial chaos. They give me a T-64, I work with it, get into coordination. I have to storm - they take him away from me, they give me other boys whom I see for the first time in my life and who don’t understand the task, they’re just shocked that they ended up here. And they were dispatched, it seems, in the very first minutes of the battle with the ATGM. We continue the fight, roll back, roll up, continue to maneuver. And then on the radio: “Friend Fritz, what should I do?” I say: “Who is this?” “I am so-and-so,” I understand that this is a tanker who should be with another unit. “But you should be...” - “Where is it, I’m with you, I’m on your tail...” - “My kitty!” I was delighted. “Well, now things are going well for us! The first platoon is there, go around, get ready.” . Certain elements of chance, due to the fact that some of the decisions of senior commanders were not logical in this particular situation, only confused. But thanks to this confusion, I ended up with another “Teshka” on the trawls, which paved the way for me to the Benfica position. And why did they lay it - because, in principle, the UR [mine clearance installation] had worked on this position before, in the first minutes of the battle. We managed to do this, and we just needed a tank to come through and make the passage again so that the infantry would not be blown up. It's all like some kind of series.

- Is war always chaos?

– Controlled chaos! The main thing here is, firstly, not to go crazy, and secondly, to understand your position in this chaos. And try in one way or another to subordinate it to a common goal and purpose. Yes, it was chaos. Because of this chaos, some companies ended in 15 minutes, some in 30, other brigades generally demonstrated “records”. My company did not end, we had minimal losses. Yes, there were cars damaged. In general, I was the first to be hit, the 152nd [mm] hit me...

- And Bradley...

- ...Bradley withstood everything. The shell hit the starboard side and the gooseneck was damaged. The armor withstood the debris, but the shock wave broke the wiring in the car... The only case when the Bradley could not withstand the impact was when the helicopters were operating, just a week later. The Ka-52 hit the vehicles, and one Bradley detonated. But there are cases when they did not detonate, when they withstood such blows. In principle, this is a very reliable car. This is not a BMP-2, where the entire crew dies, no. The Bradley may be hit, but the crew survives. And the engine is always pounding. The driver is recovering from a concussion, the engine is pounding - let's move on.
Yes, chaos. In this chaos, it is important not to lose contact with the senior commander. Because we need artillery, we need current orders. And when this stops happening, when the battalion sergeant transmits the battalion commander’s orders, this is not very good. Because you didn’t hear the order to transfer control to the sergeant. And in your headphones you can definitely hear that it’s not your battalion commander speaking. Again, it is very important that senior commanders understand what is happening on the battlefield. You know, the control system in the 47th was so high that on my tablet I could see where each of my cars was. This helped in management, you understood who was where. And the brigade commander understood who was where, and the battalion commander understood. The only thing they didn’t understand was what was really happening on the battlefield. And the situation was quite simple: ATGMs in every landing. The Russians knew our advance routes, and everything flew along these routes - the 152nd, 120th, and Grads... And here you are, where will you maneuver? Only back and forth, because everything else is mined. And what about us...

- You’ve been undergoing treatment for five months, you’re getting treatment. What is the situation with your left leg - is it also very seriously injured?

- Yes. The "anti-infantry" worked. Unfortunately, because my wounds were not treated well enough in Zaporozhye, the process of suppuration began, and I had to cut off half of my foot, although it basically survived. There were numerous fractures of the metatarsal bones, but the foot is there... Due to the large influx of wounded, the doctors simply did not have enough time to properly clean the wounds. I was cleaned for the first time in Dnepropetrovsk, two days later, when the process of suppuration began and the question of amputation of my left leg became a question. But I didn’t give it, and the doctors, thank God, helped me. The leg was saved, but not completely. Well, nothing, I’m training.

Full details here https://bmpd.livejournal.com/4773829.html

The Russians, for some unknown reason, decided not to flee. But there was no plan B.

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/8774424.html

Google Translator

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Urging Ukraine To Sue For Peace

Larry Johnson has spotted one of the many signs that "the West" is giving up on its war in Ukraine:

This week’s “No Shit Analysis” award goes to Eugene B. Rumer for his Wall Street Journal op-ed, It’s Time to End Magical Thinking About Russia’s Defeat. Only took him 22 months to figure this out. He may be a slow learner but give him some credit, he finally awakened from his dream world and is beginning to grasp that the Ukraine project is swirling down the toilet.

Eugene B. Rumer is a Senior Fellow at the Institute for National Strategic Studies, National Defense University, Washington DC. Previously, he served at the State Department, on the staff of the National Security Council and at RAND.

Despite his pedigree, he is struggling to acknowledge reality and still feels the need to spin nonsense. Here is an example:

Putin has reason to believe that time is on his side. At the front line, there are no indications that Russia is losing what has become a war of attrition. The Russian economy has been buffeted, but it is not in tatters. Putin’s hold on power was, paradoxically, strengthened following Yevgeny Prigozhin’s failed rebellion in June. Popular support for the war remains solid, and elite backing for Putin has not fractured.

Yep. Russia’s economy is so battered that it is headed toward 4% growth, its defense industry is out producing Europe and the United States combined, it is manufacturing new, more deadly drones and the stores across Russia are filled to the brim. If that is “battered” give me some.


More signs that the official foreign policy establishment is throwing the towel can be found in the current edition of Foreign Affairs. There the former head of the Council of Foreign Relations, Richard Haass, is urging the Biden administration to push the Ukraine towards negotiations:

Redefining Success in Ukraine - A New Strategy Must Balance Means and Ends - Foreign Affairs - Nov 17 2023

Well, yes, the U.S., NATO and the Ukraine have lost their war on Russia. Let's redefine that as victory and forget about the rest:

Ukraine’s counteroffensive appears to have stalled, just as wet and cold weather brings to a close the second fighting season in Kyiv’s effort to reverse Russian aggression. At the same time, the political willingness to continue providing military and economic support to Ukraine has begun to erode in both the United States and Europe. These circumstances necessitate a comprehensive reappraisal of the current strategy that Ukraine and its partners are pursuing.

Such a reassessment reveals an uncomfortable truth: namely, that Ukraine and the West are on an unsustainable trajectory, one characterized by a glaring mismatch between ends and the available means. Kyiv’s war aims—the expulsion of Russian forces from Ukrainian land and the full restoration of its territorial integrity, including Crimea—remain legally and politically unassailable. But strategically they are out of reach, certainly for the near future and quite possibly beyond.

The time has come for Washington to lead efforts to forge a new policy that sets attainable goals and brings means and ends into alignment. The United States should begin consultations with Ukraine and its European partners on a strategy centered on Ukraine’s readiness to negotiate a cease-fire with Russia and to simultaneously switch its military emphasis from offense to defense.


Defense like offense needs a certain balance of power. With a ten to one Russian superiority in artillery and air attack capability there is no way for Ukraine to hold onto any defense line. The following is thus mere fantasy:

Russia may well reject Ukraine’s offer of a cease-fire. But even if the Kremlin proves intransigent, Ukraine’s shift from offense to defense would limit the continuing loss of its soldiers, enable it to direct more resources to long-term defense and reconstruction, and shore up Western support by demonstrating that Kyiv has a workable strategy aimed at attainable goals. Over the longer term, this strategic pivot would make it clear to Russia that it cannot simply hope to outlast Ukraine and the West’s willingness to support it. That realization may eventually convince Moscow to move from the battlefield to the negotiating table—a move that would be to Ukraine’s ultimate advantage, since diplomacy offers the most realistic path for ending not only the war but also, over the long term, Russia’s occupation of Ukrainian territory.

That seems to presume that Russia will be done after completely taking the four oblast it has already integrated. That's not so:

In remarks at a recent meeting on November 3 on the eve of the National Unity Day with members of the federal and regional heads of civic chambers at the Victory Museum in Moscow, President Vladimir Putin repeated once again that Russia is “defending our moral values, our history, our culture, our language, including by helping our brothers and sisters in Donbass and Novorossiya to do the same. This is the key to today’s events.”

A noted political figure from Ukraine, Vladimir Rogov who used to be a lawmaker in Kiev reminded Putin with passionate intensity, “Believe me, we, people living in the southern part of Russia, which was cut off from its roots for 30 years, are, in fact, a storehouse of the Russian people’s historical forces, which was mothballed and could not make any efforts to regenerate our great Russia.”

Putin responded by underscoring the historical fact that Novorossiya constituted “the South Russian lands – all the Black Sea region and so on” that were founded by Catherine the Great after a series of wars with the Ottoman Empire.


Those Russian lands, which the Soviets - for no good reason- submitted to Soviet Ukrainian administration, will be repatriated.

The Biden administration knows that there is nothing it can do about that and that there is only little chance to provide Ukraine with the $30 billion it will need to finance next years deficit:

Penny Pritzker, US Special Representative for Ukraine’s Recovery, has suggested that officials imagine how the country could survive economically without US aid during her first visit to Ukraine.
...
Pritzker met with President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, the prime minister and government officials, the chairman of the parliament and American businesses. In addition, she even attended a congress of regional authorities together with Andrii Yermak, Head of the President's Office.
Ukrainska Pravda stated that her first visit to Ukraine had left "a rather disturbing aftertaste in many government offices" here.

One of the sources, familiar with the course of Pritzker's meetings, said that she tried to "lead [them] to the idea" of how Ukraine could survive economically without American aid.


With no more money coming in to be looted from, the corrupt officials of Ukraine will lose the ability to feed their greed. They will ask why they should fight a war, and endure the resulting hyper inflation (in Russian), when there is no way left to profit from it? (machine translation):

The [growth of the dollar exchange] rate will strongly depend on the volume and timeliness of international aid arriving in Ukraine. If indeed, as the financial authorities warn, the amount of external aid will be significantly less than planned in the budget (the Ministry of Finance says that at the moment the hole is $ 29 billion), then one of the most likely ways to solve the problem may be to devalue the hryvnia - so that the budget receives more hryvnia for incoming dollars and euros of international aid.

There will come a point in time for Russia to make on offer that the Ukrainian officialdom and people can not resist. Cheap gas, lots of trade in exchange for Ukrainian official acceptance of new Russian borderlines around Novorossiya as well as political and military neutrality.

This was inevitable.

Here is what I wrote on February 24, 2022, the day Russian troops first crossed the border to Ukraine:

Looking at this map I believe that the most advantageous end state for Russia would be the creation of a new independent country, call it Novorussiya, on the land east of the Dnieper and south along the coast that holds a majority ethnic Russian population and that, in 1922, had been attached to the Ukraine by Lenin. That state would be politically, culturally and militarily aligned with Russia.

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This would eliminate Ukrainian access to the Black Sea and create a land bridge towards the Moldavian breakaway Transnistria which is under Russian protection.


Novorossiya, the red and yellow parts, will not be, like I assumed, an independent country, but will become full fledged parts of the Russian Federation. Otherwise my prediction about the end-state of this war is holding up. What's left of Ukraine, poor as it is, will have to agree to it.

Without ever increasing amounts of new money and weapons flowing into Ukraine the "West" has nothing left to counter a Russian offer. It is good to see that it is finally acknowledging that.

Posted by b on November 18, 2023 at 11:00 UTC | Permalink

https://www.moonofalabama.org/2023/11/u ... peace.html
"There is great chaos under heaven; the situation is excellent."

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Re: Footnotes from the Ukrainian "Crisis"; New High-Points in Cynicism Part V

Post by blindpig » Sun Nov 19, 2023 1:50 pm

The State and war
POSTED BY @NSANZO ⋅ 11/19/2023

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According to data published by the Kiel Institute for World Economy, which carefully monitors humanitarian, financial and military assistance to Ukraine, broken down by type and country, Kiev had received commitments as of July 31, 2023 for a total value of 230,020 millions of dollars. That figure, which almost four months later has continued to rise over time and this week with the commitment of countries such as Germany, the Netherlands and Norway to expand their assistance, includes the expenses derived from the reception of refugees in certain countries, the humanitarian aid distributed in Ukraine, the financing that is currently allowing the maintenance of the State and everything related to the war.

Financing, like weapons and ammunition, has reached Ukraine progressively and continuously, following a series of practices already initiated during the post-Maidan years, but elevated to their maximum expression after the beginning of the Russian military intervention. It was then that, fundamentally from the United States, the European Union and the United Kingdom, a distribution of tasks began to take place that has led to Washington being made the main military supplier and Brussels the primary source of funds to keep part of the economy of Ukraine, taking care of such basic expenses as pensions and servicing the debt.

That last piece of information, although ignored since February 24, 2022, is an important condition for Ukraine, which, despite the rhetoric of defending independence , is increasingly dependent on external actors. A part of the financial and economic aid that kyiv currently receives reaches the country at a loss, subsidies for which Ukraine's allies will not demand return. However, another part of the assistance will, in the medium term, add to an already excessive debt that kyiv will have to deal with in some way. The data provided by the Ministry of Finance of Ukraine leaves little room for doubt about the importance of these debts. According to official figures on the breakdown of spending in the first seven months of the year, and despite that part of assistance without waiting for a counterpart or very long-term payments, 8% of Ukraine's spending between January and July 2023 was allocated to service the debt.

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These data also showed that the sum of spending on goods and services and military personnel accounted for 48% of the total, followed by spending on social security (19%) and civilian goods and services (15%). Practically half of the total expenditure was already allocated to the war, with the other half covering the maintenance of the State and debt service.

Last week, the Ministry of Finance presented the broad outlines of the budget for 2024, a year that, according to Andriy Ermak during his recent visit to the United States, should be “a turning point.” Something similar arose in the months of preparation for the offensive that was to begin in spring and was finally launched in the first week of June with the aim of definitively wresting the initiative on the front from Russia. Despite the statements of the political authorities and Ukrainian intelligence, who have insisted for months that everything is going according to plan (Ermak) or that the times are only delayed (Budanov), the military has assumed that the counteroffensive will not achieve, in no way its initial objectives. Ukraine has not broken the front or forced Russia to withdraw from large territories, endangering control over Crimea, something evident and accepted in more and more in-depth articles that consider Ukraine's great bet for 2023 to have failed. The week Last time it was The Economist and this time, The Wall Street Jounal has been even harsher calling for putting aside “magical thinking”. Along the same lines, Richard Haas called in the influential Foreign Affairs , magazine of the Council of Foreign Relations, for pragmatism in the form of forgetting the territories under Russian control and putting emphasis on improving the situation in the area under Ukrainian control to recover its economy.

Implicitly, with their actions and their demands on their foreign allies, the political authorities are also aware that, despite the partial successes that Ukraine boasts of daily, the military objectives, the trigger for the politicians, are not achieved. they have fulfilled. Postponing the year of the turning point to 2024 is nothing more than the representation of the acceptance that nothing has gone as expected. Hence, Ukraine is currently using arguments to defend that it is now that the country needs international solidarity. This is what Anton Geraschenko, an old acquaintance of Ukrainian nationalism, wrote on social networks, one of the men who incorporated groups like Azov into the Ministry of the Interior and who, unlike Arsen Avakov, has been able to maneuver to maintain his level of can.

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Data published by the Ministry of Finance shows a spending structure created by and for the war. The increase in Russian military spending to almost 30% of the total has recently drawn attention in the Western media. This percentage must include items that have nothing to do with the war: among them the defense of the country's territories far from the front or the maintenance of the nuclear arsenal. In the case of Ukraine, the budget allocation for defense amounts to 51%, consistent with the increase in the last two years and only a starting point for an expense that, the Ministry itself affirms, may be higher due to needs. Compared to more than half of the budget allocated to war, the sum of social, health and education spending amounts to 24%. Although Zelensky has recently stated that Ukraine would be unable to cover these social expenses if it lacked the funds currently sent by its partners, it is these items that would predictably be cut if another increase in military spending is required. . This is where Ukraine has always reduced, whether in the form of privatization or rationalization , throughout the years of war in Donbass.

Neither social spending, nor education or health spending are currently, nor have they been in the past, Ukraine's priority, focused solely on the item that receives more than half of the spending forecast. It is in defense that kyiv demands an additional effort from its allies, a new million-dollar investment to prepare new offensives. The disaggregated data on the commitments of different countries clearly shows where kyiv's concern lies, shared by Brussels. Unlike the case of the European Union (the Member States and their institutions), whose commitments are divided between those in the short term and a significant part in the longer term, 100% of the funds offered by the United States are short-term. term. Joe Biden's difficulties in obtaining new funds from Congress have long become a factor to be taken into account for Ukraine and also for the European Union, aware that it would not be able to replace the United States in the event that these difficulties would increase, as Kiev would feel the effects immediately. That's the main idea Zelensky is currently trying to convey, both when he demands more funds and when he expresses his displeasure over sending artillery shells to Israel instead of Ukraine.

As happened a few weeks ago, the agreement to avoid the closure of the United States Government has once again excluded the additional funds that Joe Biden requested for Ukraine. As reported by the AP , the agreement contains no military assistance for Ukraine or Israel and no funds for humanitarian assistance for Kiev. The US executive continues to insist that the quantities available for military assistance to Ukraine are running out, which is why deliveries have been significantly reduced in recent weeks. Biden will have to fight against the refusal of the Trumpist wing to continue military supplies to Ukraine and against the pressure of the Republican Party in general, which has seen the blocking or delay of these items as an element of electoral pressure, to achieve the desired funds. .

For the moment, Biden's attempt to find an additional $60 billion to finance Ukraine at least until the US elections in November 2024 by linking the Ukrainian cause to the Israeli one, which the Republican Party cannot afford not to finance, has failed. The pre-election year has just begun and Ukraine's financing is going to become an electoral tool to pressure the opposing party.

Although it is not expected that US assistance will disappear, delays are a possible scenario, which has already caused concern in kyiv and the mobilization of resources in the European Union. This is how we must understand the announcement by countries like Germany to reinforce Ukraine's military financing. It is clear that the European Union is not in a position to double assistance to Ukraine to compensate for the loss of US funds, but it can, by advancing the funds planned in the long term, avoid the effects of a possible temporary interruption of assistance from Washington . Without significant opposition to the financing of the Ukrainian military effort, the European Union is aware that it has invested enormous amounts of resources in Ukraine, a commitment made, unlike in the case of the United States, for the long term. Brussels has wanted to become the center of financing the Ukrainian project, with which it will have to bear regardless of the situation on the front and the effect of political events in Washington.

https://slavyangrad.es/2023/11/19/el-es ... la-guerra/

Google Translator

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What's happening in the Northeast Military District zone: chronicle for November 18
November 18, 2023
Rybar

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Fighting continues along the entire front line without significant changes. The exception is the Avdeevsky section , where the RF Armed Forces were able to significantly expand the control zone in the industrial zone from the Yasinovataya side. In the Bakhmut sector, Russian troops are expanding the zone of control near Kleshcheevka and the railway station of the same name on the northern outskirts of the village.

In addition, at night Russian troops attacked rear military installations of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. According to available data, an enemy oil depot in the village of Vygoda, Odessa region , and one of the enterprises in Zaporozhye were hit .

At the same time, the enemy has increased the intensity of attacks on Russian border regions. Thus, throughout the day, populated areas of the Belgorod , Bryansk and Kursk regions were under fire. In the Donetsk People's Republic , three people were injured by ammunition dropped from a UAV.

The situation on the front line and combat operations
At night, Russian troops again attacked rear military targets of Ukrainian formations. The drones operated in the Kiev , Zaporozhye , Dnepropetrovsk and Odessa regions . In the latter, an oil depot came under attack, but at the same time, power supply was partially lost in the region, which hints at a possible defeat of the energy facility.


There have been no significant changes in the Kupyansky sector of the Starobelsky direction; the Russian Armed Forces are consolidating on the achieved lines near Timkovka , preparing for a new offensive. In the Kremensky sector in the area of ​​the Tor salient , the Russian Armed Forces are conducting positional combat operations, preventing the enemy from counterattacking with concentrated fire from closed firing positions.


In the Soledar direction, Russian troops managed to somewhat expand the zone of control near Kleshcheevka and the railway station of the same name on the northern outskirts of the village. Nevertheless, key heights still remain under Ukrainian control, and their capture is the primary task of the Russian Armed Forces in this area.


In the Avdeevsky sector, fighting continues in the vicinity of the Avdeevsky fortified area . Many areas are covered with the “fog of war,” fighting continues near Stepovoy (Petrovsky) and AKHZ, the approaches to the plant have been cleared, but the assault on the facility itself has not yet begun.

In addition, the Russian Armed Forces were able to advance into the industrial zone in the area of ​​the Yasinovataya-2 station, breaking through the defenses on one of the oldest sectors of the front, where fighting has been going on since 2014.


In the Yuzhno-Donetsk direction, the line of combat contact has not undergone any changes. The sides exchange artillery strikes and conduct mutual reconnaissance. In Novomikhailovka, an air strike destroyed a concentration of enemy forces, and near a populated point, an ATGM attack from a Ka-52 destroyed an MT-LB of the Ukrainian Armed Forces.


In the Orekhovsky sector, the Ukrainian Armed Forces are trying to attack the positions of the Russian Armed Forces despite worsening weather conditions. The enemy launched a charge between Novofedorovka and Verbov , beginning to advance under the cover of fog, but was unsuccessful.


In the Kherson direction, fierce battles continue at Krynoki . In recent days, the enemy has not attempted to expand the zone of control around the bridgehead, where Russian artillery and drones are working closely. However, it is still not possible to dislodge the Ukrainian Armed Forces from there.

Shelling of rear areas and residential areas

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Ukrainian formations again attacked the Bryansk region throughout the day . An enemy drone was shot down in the Unechsky district , there were no casualties or destruction. In the village of Grudskaya , Sevsky district, power lines were damaged by shelling; repair crews were working at the scene of the accident.

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During the day, Ukrainian formations shelled the village of Krasnooktyabrsky in the Kursk region. There were no reports of casualties or damage.

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The Ukrainian Armed Forces attacked the village of Gorkovsky in the Belgorod region with a drone . As a result of the hit, the communication object was damaged. In addition, two more people were injured. They were taken to the hospital with shrapnel wounds to their lower extremities, where they are receiving medical care.

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In the Donetsk People's Republic, Ukrainian formations carried out attacks on the Kuibyshevsky district of Donetsk , Zaitsevo and the western regions of Gorlovka . In the Petrovsky district of the capital of the DPR, three people were injured as a result of drops from a UAV in the area of ​​the Galaktika shopping center. Ukrainian terrorists wounded a civilian man, and then carried out a repeated drop on paramedics from the ambulance crew. Two doctors were injured.


Today, the enemy again shelled the village of Kamenka-Dneprovskaya in the Zaporozhye region . There were no casualties, but several private houses were seriously damaged, one of which was almost completely destroyed.

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The Ukrainian Armed Forces continue to terrorize Russian settlements on the left bank of the Dnieper in the Kherson region . This time Kakhovka, Novaya Kakhovka, Peschanivka, Golaya Pristan, Sagi and Korsunka came under attack . In the last village, a civilian was seriously injured and received medical assistance.

Political events
Western aid estimates for Ukraine

The owners of the Canadian service Visual Capitalist calculated that from January 2022 to July 2023, Western countries provided $233 billion in assistance to Ukraine . Most of these funds were direct financial assistance necessary for at least some functioning of the economy, social sphere and Ukrainian authorities. The Americans expectedly allocated the largest amount of funds for armaments for the Armed Forces of Ukraine : by July 2023, according to enthusiasts, it amounted to $44 billion. In the case of the European Union, more than 90% of the aid was direct assistance and only about 6% went to military support. To a lesser extent, the Ukrainians were supported by Germany and Great Britain , allocating 22 and 15 billion respectively.

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Regular articles from Western media about problems with assistance to Ukraine

Against the backdrop of a pause in the US allocation of additional assistance to Ukraine , The Wall Street Journal published an article in which, citing some high-ranking European officials, it spoke about the EU’s inability to replace American military supplies to the Kiev regime. Here, journalists voiced something that had long been obvious - the current level of military production in Europe does not allow the Armed Forces of Ukraine to be fully supplied even with artillery ammunition. Things are no better with technology: to meet Ukraine’s needs, the EU must give up almost all of its reserves, which is still only possible in theory.

The best illustration here is that the latest package of deliveries from Germany includes only 1020 155-mm caliber shells - a paltry amount by the standards of the current war. At the same time, Brussels is taking steps to increase production output, but this will take up to several years. So, in the foreseeable future, it is the volume of US assistance that will determine the level of combat effectiveness of Ukrainian formations and their ability to conduct operations.

Logistics battles in Eastern Europe

Polish truckers continue to block the entry of Ukrainian trucks into Poland , thus expressing their dissatisfaction with the introduction of preferential tariffs for their colleagues from Ukraine , which harms local carriers. Currently, more than 2,800 trucks have already accumulated on the border in both directions, which is causing significant damage to the Ukrainian economy. The situation is still far from being resolved: despite negotiations between activists and representatives of the Polish Ministry of Transport and the authorities of the Lublin Voivodeship, they were unable to reach a consensus. In addition, Slovak carriers also joined the action with similar demands.

https://rybar.ru/chto-proishodit-v-zone ... -noyabrya/

Google Translator

(Other images at link.)

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Russo-Ukrainian War: The Reckoning
Ukraine at the limits

BIG SERGE
NOV 15, 2023

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The Last Argument of Kings

The Russo-Ukrainian War has been a novel historical experience for a variety of reasons, and not only for the intricacies and technicalities of the military enterprise itself. This became the first conventional military conflict to occur in the age of social media and planetary cinematography (that is, the ubiquitous presence of cameras). This brought a veneer (though only a veneer) of immanence to war, which for millennia had unveiled itself only through the mediating forces of cable news, print newspapers, and victory steles.

For the eternal optimist, there were upsides to the idea that a high intensity war was slated to be documented in thousands of first-person view videos. Purely from the standpoint of intellectual curiosity (and martial prudence), the flood of footage from Ukraine offers insight into emerging weapons systems and methods and allows for a remarkable level of tactical-level data. Rather than waiting for years of agonizing dissection of after action reports to reconstruct engagements, we are aware in near real time of tactical movements.

Unfortunately, all the obvious downsides of airing a war live on social media were also in effect. The war instantly became sensationalized and saturated with fake, fabricated, or incorrectly captioned videos, cluttered with information that most people are simply not equipped to parse through (for obvious reasons, the average citizen does not have extensive experience differentiating between two post-Soviet armies using similar equipment and speaking similar, or even the same language), and pseudo-expertise.

More abstractly, the war in Ukraine was transformed into an American entertainment product, complete with celebrity wonder weapons (like Saint Javelin and the HIMARS), groan-inducing references to American pop culture, visits from American celebrities, and voiceovers from Luke Skywalker. All of this fit very naturally with American sensibilities, because Americans ostensibly love underdogs, and in particularly spunky underdogs who overcome extreme odds through perseverance and grit.

The problem with this favored narrative structure is that underdogs rarely win wars. Most major peer conflicts do not have the conventional Hollywood plot structure with a dramatic turning point and reversal of fortune. Most of the time, wars are won by the more powerful state, which is to say the state with the ability to mobilize and effectively apply more fighting power over a longer period of time. This has certainly been the case in American history - no matter how much Americans may long to recast themselves as a historical underdog, America has historically won its wars because it has been an exceptionally powerful state with irresistible and innate advantages over its enemies. This is nothing to be ashamed of. As General George Patton famously said: Americans love a winner.

Thus we arrived at a convolution situation where, despite Russia’s many obvious advantages (which in the end come down to a superior indigenous capacity to mobilize men, industrial output, and technology), it became “propaganda” to argue that Russia was going to achieve some sort of victory in Ukraine - that Ukraine would end the war having failed to re-attain its 1991 borders (Zelensky’s stated victory condition) and with the country in a wrecked state of demographic hollowing and material destruction.

At last, we seem to have reached a denouement phase, where this view - allegedly an artifact of Kremlin influence, but in reality the most straightforward and obvious conclusion - is becoming inescapable. Russia is a bigger fighter with a much bigger bat.

The case for Ukraine’s victory rested almost entirely on dramatic success in a summer counteroffensive, which was supposedly expected to smash its way through the Russian positions in Zaporizhia Oblast, knife to the Sea of Azov, sever Russia’s land bridge to Crimea, and place the entire underbelly of Russia’s strategic position in jeopardy. A whole host of assumptions about the war were to be tested: the supremacy of western equipment, Russia’s paucity of reserves, the superiority of Western-Ukrainian tactical methods, the inflexibility and incompetence of Russian commanders in the defense.

More generally - and more importantly - this was intended to prove that Ukraine could successfully attack and advance against strongly held Russian positions. This is obviously a prerequisite for a Ukraine strategic victory. If the Ukrainian armed forces cannot advance, then Ukraine cannot restore its 1991 boundaries and the war has transformed from a struggle for victory into a struggle for a managed or mitigated defeat. The issue ceases to be whether Ukraine will lose, and becomes a question only of how much.

Ukraine’s Summer Calamity
Western observers are at long last beginning to engage with the fact that Ukraine’s summer counteroffensive devolved into an abject failure and a military defeat of historical significance. It’s important to remember that, prior to the start of the operation, there were real expectations both among Ukrainian officials and western backers that the offensive could achieve the isolation or blockading of Crimea, if not its outright recapture. Underpinning this optimistic outlook were key assumptions about the superiority of western-gifted armored vehicles and a Russian army that was supposedly beginning to run dry. A purportedly leaked Ukrainian Order of Operations memorandum intimated that the AFU intended to reach and mask major cities like Berdyansk and Melitopol.

Remembering that the Ukrainians and their benefactors genuinely believed that they could reach the Azov coast and create an operational crisis for Russia is very important, because only in the context of these objectives can the letdown of the attack be fully comprehended. We are now (as of my typing of this sentence) at D+150 from the initial massed Ukrainian assault on the night of June 7-8, and the gains are paltry to say the least. The AFU is stuck in a concave forward position, wedged between the small Russian held villages of Verbove, Novoprokopivka, and Kopani, unable to advance any further, taking a steady trickle of losses as it attempts half-hearted small unit attacks to cross the Russian anti-tank ditches that ring the edges of the fields.

At the moment, the maximum advance achieved by the counteroffensive lies just ten miles from the town of Orikhiv (in the Ukrainian staging area). Ukraine failed not only to reach its terminal objectives, but it never even threatened its intermediate waypoints (like Tokmak). In fact, they never created even a temporary breach in Russia’s defenses. Instead, the AFU threw the bulk of the newly formed and western-equipped 9th and 10th Corps against fixed positions of the Russian 58th, 35th, and 36th Combined Arms Armies, became embedded in the outer screening line, and the attack collapsed after heavy casualties.

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Debacle: The Battle of Robotyne

As the autumn began to drag on without battlefield results materializing for Ukraine, the process of finger pointing began with remarkable predictability. Three distinct lines of thought emerged, with observers in the west blaming a supposed Ukrainian inability to implement western tactics, some Ukrainian parties countering that western armor was too slow to arrive, which gave the Russian army time to fortify its positions, and others arguing that the problem was that the west failed to provide the necessary aircraft and strike systems.

I think that all of this rather misses the point - or rather, all of these factors are merely tangential to the point. The various Ukrainian and western figures pointing fingers at each other are rather like the proverbial blind men describing an elephant. All of these complaints - insufficient training, slow delivery timetables, shortages of air and strike assets - merely reflect the larger problem of attempting to assemble on an improvised basis an entirely new army with a hodgepodge of mismatched foreign systems, in a country with dwindling demographic and industrial assets.

All that aside, the internecine quarreling in the Ukrainian camp obscures the importance of tactical factors and ignores the highly active role that the Russian armed forces played in spoiling Ukraine’s great attack. While the dissection of the battle is likely to continue for many years, a litany of tactical reasons for Ukrainian defeat can already be enumerated as follows:

1.The failure of the AFU to achieve strategic surprise. Notwithstanding an ostentatious OPSEC effort and attempted feint operations on the Belgorod border, around Bakhmut, Staromaiorske, and elsewhere, it was readily apparent to all involved that the point of the main Ukrainian effort would be towards the Azov littoral, and specifically the Orikhiv-Tokmak axis. Ukraine attacked precisely where they were expected to.

2.The danger of staging and approach in the 21st century. The AFU had to congregate assets under exposure to Russian ISR and strike assets, which repeatedly subjected Ukrainian rear areas (like Orikhiv, where ammunition dumps and reserves were repeatedly struck) to Russian fire, and allowed the Russians to routinely take deploying Ukrainian battlegroups under fire while they were still in their marching columns.

3.Inability (or unwillingness) to commit sufficient mass to force a decision. The density of the Russian ISR-Fires nexus incentivized the AFU to disperse its forces. While this can reduce losses, it also meant that Ukrainian combat power was introduced in a piecemeal trickle which simply lacked the mass to ever seriously threaten the Russian position. The operation largely devolved into company-level attacks which were clearly inadequate for the task.

4.Inadequacy of Ukrainian fires and suppression. A fairly self-evident and all-encompassing capabilities gap, with the AFU facing a shortage of tubes and artillery shells (forcing HIMARS into a tactical role as an artillery substitute), and lacking sufficient air defense and electronic warfare assets to mitigate the variety of Russian airborne systems, including drones of all types, attack helicopters, and UMPK bombs. The result was a series of under-supported Ukrainian maneuver columns being raked in a firestorm.

5.Inadequate combat engineering, which left the AFU vulnerable to a web of Russian minefields that were evidently far more robust than expected.

Taken together, we actually have a fairly straightforward tactical conundrum. The Ukrainians attempted a frontal assault on a fixed defense without either the element of surprise or parity in ranged fires. With the Russian defense fully on alert and Ukrainian staging areas and approach lanes subject to intense Russian fires, the AFU dispersed its forces in an effort to reduce losses, and this all but ensured that the Ukrainians would never have the necessary mass to create a breach. Add it all up, and you get the summer of 2023 - a series of frustrating and fruitless attacks on the exact same sector of the defense, slowly frittering away both the year and Ukraine’s best, last hope.

The failure of Ukraine’s offensive has seismic ramifications for the future conduct of the war. Combat operations always occur in reference to Ukraine’s political objectives, which are - to put it bluntly - ambitious. It’s important to remember that the Kiev regime has maintained from the very beginning that it would not settle for anything less than the 1991 territorial maximum of Ukraine - implying not only the recovery of the territory occupied by Russia after February 2022, but also the subjugation of the separatist polities in Donetsk and Lugansk and the conquest of Russian Crimea.

Ukraine’s war aims have always been defended as reasonable in the west for reasons related to the supposed legal niceties of war, the western illusion that borders are immutable, and the apparent transcendent divinity of Soviet-era administrative boundaries (which after all were the source of the 1991 borders). Regardless of all these matters, what Ukraine’s war aims implied as a practical matter was that Ukraine needed to capture de-facto prewar Russian territory, including four major cities (Donetsk, Lugansk, Sevastopol, and Simferopol). It meant dislodging the Russian Black Sea Fleet from its port somehow. This was an extraordinarily difficult task - far more complicated and more vast than anyone wanted to admit.

(Much more, excellent analysis, see link.)

https://bigserge.substack.com/p/russo-u ... -reckoning

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The Media’s Nord Stream lies just keep coming
By Jonathan Cook (Posted Nov 17, 2023)

Originally published: Dissident Voice on November 14, 2023 (more by Dissident Voice) |

Want to understand why the media we consume is either owned by billionaires or under the thumb of government? The latest developments in the story about who was behind the explosions that destroyed the Nord Stream pipelines that brought Russian gas to Europe provide the answer.

Although largely forgotten now, the blasts in the Baltic Sea in September 2022 had huge and lasting repercussions. The explosion was an act both of unprecedented industrial sabotage and of unparalleled environmental terrorism, releasing untold quantities of the most potent of the greenhouse gases, methane, into the atmosphere.

The blowing up of the pipelines plunged Europe into a prolonged energy crisis, tipping its economies deeper into a recession from which they are yet to recover. Europe was forced to turn to the United States and buy much more expensive liquified gas. And one of the long-term effects will be to accelerate the de-industrialisation of Europe, especially Germany.

There can be almost no one in Europe who did not suffer personal financial harm, in most cases significant harm, from the explosions.

The question that needed urgently answering at the time of the blasts was one no media organisation was in a hurry to investigate: Who did it?

In unison, the media simply recited the White House’s extraordinary claim that Russia had sabotaged its own pipelines.

That required an unprecedented suspension of disbelief. It meant that Moscow had chosen to strip itself both of the lucrative income stream the gas pipelines generated, and of the political and diplomatic leverage it enjoyed over European states from its control of their energy supplies. This was at a time, remember, when the Kremlin, embattled in its war in Ukraine, needed all the diplomatic influence it could muster.

The main culprit
The need to breathe credibility into the laughably improbable “Russia did it” story was so urgent at the time because there was was only one other serious culprit in the frame. No media outlet, of course, mentioned it.


U.S. officials from Biden down had repeatedly threatened that Washington would intervene to make sure the Nord Stream pipelines could not operate. The administration was expressly against European energy dependency on Russia. Another gain from the pipelines’ destruction was that a more economically vulnerable Europe would be forced to lean even more heavily on the U.S. as a guarantor of its security, a useful chokehold on Europe when Washington was preparing for prolonged confrontations with both Russia and China.

As for the means, only a handful of states had the divers and technical resources enabling them to pull off the extremely difficult feat of successfully planting and detonating explosives on the sea floor undetected.

Had we known then what is gradually becoming clear now, even from establishment media reporting—that the U.S. was, at the very least, intimately involved—there would have been uproar.

It would have been clear that the U.S. was a rogue, terrorist state, that it was willing to burn its allies for geostrategic gain, and that there was no limit to the crimes it was prepared to commit.

Every time Europeans had to pay substantially more for their heating bills, or filling up their car, or paying for the weekly shop, they would have known that the cause was gangster-like criminality by the Biden administration.

Evidence ignored
Which is precisely why the establishment media were so very careful after the explosions not to implicate the Biden administration in any way, even if it meant ignoring the mass of evidence staring them in the face.

It is why they ignored the incendiary report by legendary investigative journalist Seymour Hersh—who has broken some of the most important stories of the last half century—detailing exactly how the U.S. carried out the operation. When his account was occasionally referenced by the media, it was solely to ridicule it.


It is why, when it became obvious that the “Russia did it” claim was unsupportable, the media literally jumped ship: credulously reporting that a small group of “maverick” Ukrainians—unknown to President Volodymyr Zelensky, of course—had rented a yacht and carried off one of the most daring and difficult deep-sea stunts ever recorded.

It is why, later, the media treated it as entirely unremarkable—and certainly not worthy of comment—that new evidence suggested the Biden administration was warned of this maverick Ukrainian operation against the whole of Europe. It apparently knew what was about to happen but did precisely nothing to stop it.


And it is why the latest reporting from the Washington Post changes the impossible-to-believe “maverick” Ukrainian operation into one that implicates the very top of the Ukrainian military. Still, once again, the paper and the rest of the media steadfastly refuse to join the dots and follow the implications contained in their own reporting.

The central character in the new drama, Roman Chervinsky, belongs to Ukraine’s special operations forces. He supposedly oversaw the small, six-man team that rented a yacht and then carried out the James Bond-style attack.

The ingenuous Post claims that his training and operational experience meant he was “well suited to help carry out a covert mission meant to obscure Ukraine’s responsibility”. It lists his resistance activities against Russia. None indicate that he had the slightest experience allowing him to mastermind a highly challenging, extremely dangerous, technically complex attack deep in the waters of the Baltic Sea.

Prior knowledge
If the Ukrainian military really was behind the explosions—rather than the U.S.—all the indications are that the Biden administration and Pentagon must have been intimately involved in the planning and execution.

Not least, it is extremely unlikely that the Ukrainian military had the technical capability to carry out by itself such an operation successfully and undiscovered.

And given that, even before the war, the Ukrainian military had fallen almost completely under U.S. military operational control, the idea that Ukraine’s senior command would have been able to, or dared, execute this complex and risky venture without involving the U.S. beggars belief.

Politically, it would have been quite extraordinary for Ukrainian leaders to imagine they could unilaterally decide to shut down energy supplies to Europe without consulting first with the U.S., especially when Ukraine’s entire war effort was being paid for and overseen by Washington and Europe.

And, of course, Ukrainian leaders would have been only too aware that the U.S. was bound to quickly work out who was behind the attack.

It would be telling indeed that, in such circumstances, the Biden administration would apparently choose to reward Ukraine with more money and arms for its act of industrial sabotage against Europe rather than punish it in any way.

It would be equally astonishing that the three states supposedly investigating the attack—Germany, Sweden and Denmark—would not also soon figure out for themselves that Ukraine was culpable. Why would they decide to cover up Ukraine’s attack on Europe’s economy rather than expose it—unless they were worried about upsetting the U.S.?

And, of course, there is the elephant in the room: the Washington Post’s earlier reporting indicated the U.S. had prior knowledge that Ukraine was planning the attack. That is even more likely if the pipeline blast was signed off by Ukrainian military commanders rather than a group of Ukrainian “mavericks”.

The Washington Post’s new story repeats the line that the Biden administration was forewarned of the attack. Now, however, the Post casually reports that, after expressing opposition,

U.S. officials believed the attack had been called off. But it turned out only to have been postponed to three months later, using a different point of departure than originally planned.

The Post simply accepts the word of U.S. officials that the most powerful country on the planet fell asleep at the wheel. The CIA and the Biden administration apparently knew the Ukrainian military was keen to blow up the Nord Stream pipelines and plunge Europe into an energy crisis and economic recession. But U.S. officials were blindsided when the same small Ukrainian operational team changed locations and timings.

On this account, U.S. intelligence fell for the simplest of bait and switches when the stakes were about as high as could be imagined. And the Washington Post and other media outlets report all of this with a faux-seriousness.

Ukrainian fall guy
Either way, the U.S. is deeply implicated in the attack on Europe’s energy infrastructure and the undermining of its economy.

Even if the establishment media reporting is right and Ukraine blew up Nord Stream, the Biden administration must have given the green light, overseen the operational planning and assisted in the implementation and subsequent cover-up.

Then again, if as seems far more likely, Hersh is right, then there was no middle man—the U.S. carried out the attack on its own. It needed a fall guy. When Russia no longer fitted the bill, Ukraine became the sacrificial offering.

A year on, these muffled implications from the media’s own reporting barely raise an eyebrow.

The establishment media has played precisely the role expected of it: neutering public outrage. Its regimented acceptance of the initial, preposterous claim of Russian responsibility. Its drip-feed, uncritical reporting of other, equally improbable possibilities. Its studious refusal to join the all-too-visible dots. Its continuing incuriousness about its own story and what Ukraine’s involvement would entail.

The media has failed by every yardstick of what journalism is supposed to be there for, what it is supposed to do. And that is because the establishment media is not there to dig out the truth, it is not there to hold power to account. Ultimately, when the stakes are high—and they get no higher than the Nord Stream attack—it is there to spin narratives convenient to those in power, because the media itself is embedded in those same networks of power.

Why do billionaires rush to own media corporations, even when the outlets are loss-making? Why are governments so keen to let billionaires take charge of the chief means by which we gain information and communicate between ourselves. Because the power to tell stories, the power over our minds is the greatest power there is.

https://mronline.org/2023/11/17/the-med ... ep-coming/

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Putin's evil attack
November 19, 8:22

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Putin's evil attack

In the Black Sea last Thursday, the Georgia S ship, transporting grain under the flag of Liberia, was blown up by a mine, the Ukrainian publication Ukrrudprom reported, citing sources.

"Four maritime and trade sources reported that the Liberian-flagged bulk carrier Georgia S, loaded with wheat, was en route from the port of Yuzhny (located in the Odessa region of Ukraine - Ed.) when it was damaged in the high seas on Thursday," the report said. publications.

A Ukrainian government source said it was likely that the ship was hit by a floating sea mine. According to MarineTraffic, which tracks ships, the bulk carrier was heading to Constanta, Romania.

Previously, grain was exported from Ukrainian ports as part of a grain deal, but on July 18 it ceased. Russia has notified Turkey, Ukraine and the UN of its objection to its extension. Vladimir Putin noted that the terms of the agreement regarding Moscow were not implemented, despite the efforts of the United Nations, because the West had no intention of doing so. The President has repeatedly indicated that the main purpose of the deal was to supply grain to countries in need, including African ones. This mission was never realized, and Western countries exported most of the Ukrainian products to their countries.

As reported by the Russian Ministry of Defense, after the collapse of the maritime humanitarian corridor, all ships traveling in the Black Sea to Ukrainian ports, from midnight on July 20, are considered as potential carriers of military cargo and are considered involved in the conflict on the side of Kiev.

Despite this, Ukraine decided to continue grain supplies via the Black Sea. In August, the country's naval forces announced the opening of temporary corridors for merchant ships sailing towards or from the ports of Chernomorsk, Odessa and Yuzhny. In the same month, Kyiv began registering ships ready to sail along these routes “under the supervision of the Armed Forces of Ukraine,” which will ensure their safety. At the same time, the representative of the Ukrainian Navy, Dmitry Pletenchuk, admitted that it is impossible to guarantee complete safety of the passage of ships through temporary corridors in the Black Sea.

As previously stated, the free passage of ships to Odessa is carried out at the country’s own risk, while there are no guarantees against drifting Ukrainian mines floating throughout the northwestern part of the Black Sea. And this is obviously not the last ship that was blown up by them.

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/8775321.html

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Re: Footnotes from the Ukrainian "Crisis"; New High-Points in Cynicism Part V

Post by blindpig » Mon Nov 20, 2023 1:18 pm

The persistent myth of Maidan
POSTED BY @NSANZO ⋅ 11/20/2023

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Since his definitive victory over Viktor Yanukovych, and by extension everything that the Party of Regions represented as a neither nationalist nor anti-Russian option to understand Ukraine, Maidan has become a concept with multiple meanings. As a political victory, Maidan symbolizes the end of the balance between the nationalist west and a center and east of the country that was not nationalist and that had preserved a different way of understanding the country's recent past without rejecting, for example, the legacy of the Republic. Ukrainian Soviet Socialist. In geopolitical terms, Maidan meant the beginning of what the new authorities in Kiev presented as the Euro-Atlantic path, despite the fact that at that time there was a strong division in the country over accession to the European Union and especially to NATO, against the that there was still strong rejection. The revelations about the significant degree of collaboration between the CIA, the SBU and the GUR to reorganize the intelligence sector is just one example of the Western presence to reform the State from within and turn it into a useful tool for its own political interests, in this case linked to the rivalry with Russia. The commented image of Victoria Nuland, Undersecretary of State, handing out cookies to protesters accompanied by the American ambassador is nothing more than the public representation of external interference that was not limited only to the United States and that was always evident.

Countries such as the United States, Germany or Poland took advantage of the evident climate of unrest existing in the country to increase divisions by politically, diplomatically and economically supporting a series of groups and certain candidates to end, through revolutionary means , with the government of Viktor Yanukovych, the man of Russia , elected at the polls. To do this, each country opted for its man. The intercepted phone call in which Victoria Nuland organized the future Government and made it clear who should be left out is well remembered. In it, the American diplomat referred to Arseniy Yatseniuk as “our boy.” It is less remembered that, at that time, Vitaly Klitschko was not only known for his role in the protests or his sporting past but for being a man from Germany, on the payroll of Berlin's soft power.

The flagrantly irregular change of government in February 2014 marked a turning point in the form of the State of Ukraine and in the internal balances that had kept a country with a significant territorial, political and linguistic fracture relatively stable. The events were seen by part of the citizens and broad sectors of the elites as the revolution of dignity , the opportunity to put an end to Russian infiltration - which always included the pro-Russian , a term that also encompasses those who defended a different vision and not necessarily anti-Russian image of what the State and Ukrainian identity should be - and the possibility even of publicly shining opponents. On the contrary, those who saw what happened in Kiev as a coup d'état mobilized, to the best of their ability, in what eventually led to the Crimean referendum and accession to Russia; the protests in cities such as Kharkov and Odessa, repressed by the authorities at the hands of the extreme right, which acted as the executing arm, and the broad movement in Donbass against Kiev that gave rise to what Ukraine described as an anti-terrorist operation .

But Maidan was more than the consequence of a protest movement or a turning point that was to mark the economic, political, geopolitical and even military development of Ukraine for at least the next decade. The victory of Maidan has been the founding myth of the Ukraine born in 2014 and which is still under construction, taking advantage of the current war, in the same way as it did in Donbass, to transform the vision of the country and rewrite its history modifying your present and future. An important part of that myth is due to the celestial century , those hundred people killed by snipers in the bloodiest days of the peak phase of the street protests. Although it was already known then that a part of the protest was made up of heavily armed far-right groups, the official discourse of Ukraine, accepted as fact by the entire Western press, has always alleged the deliberate murder of protesters by the Government on the verge of of being overthrown.

Since 2014, Professor Ivan Katchanovski of the University of Ottawa, a Canadian of Ukrainian origin who has acted, not from pro-Russian positions but in search of the truth, has always defended that a portion of the shots came from positions controlled by the protesters. Despite being the most rigorous and detailed study on the directions of the shots and the positions of each of the parties, Katchanovski has suffered an attempt to discredit him by the academy and even retaliation from the Ukrainian Government, which seized his home. and accounts in Ukraine. His credibility has increased in recent months following the scandal over the invitation of SS veteran Yaroslav Hunka to the Canadian Parliament. It was Katchanovski who quickly found the texts written by Hunka, which made his ideology and his actions during the war clear. Curiously, there has been less media relevance in recent weeks than the ruling of a Ukrainian court that has validated Katchanovski's theory about what happened at the most decisive moment of the Maidan. As the academic has defended for more than nine years, the sniper shots came from the Ukraina Hotel and other positions under the control of the protesters and the Maidan self-defense groups . These armed groups were led by the social-nationalist Andriy Parubiy, who months later would be the president of the National Security and Defense Council when Ukraine created the fiction of the anti-terrorist operation to justify the use of armed forces on national territory.

In practice, the sentence confirms what was obvious to those who closely observed the protests: at least some of the deceased were murdered by radical groups in the service of the change of Government. The issue has not acquired media relevance for several reasons, among which is the time that has passed. Between the legend and the facts, it is already very easy to choose to perpetuate the memory of the legend despite its falsehoods. Maidan is the myth from which the new Ukraine was born, which now claims to fight for its freedom in a context of party bans and internal disputes that, over the years, have led to practically every minimally relevant representative being accused of act on behalf of Russia.

A few days after the publication of the ruling, which will be hidden until a higher court qualifies or annuls it, the idea of ​​Maidan has returned to the political news. It is not about recovering memory or clarifying the facts, but about using them for one's own benefit and against possible opponents. The idea of ​​a “new Maidan” has been recurrent over the past nine years, generally as an empty threat from far-right groups or as a desire on the part of Russia for troops to turn around their tanks in Donbass and recriminate to his Government for the use it was making of the war. In no case has there been any possibility of repeating the protest, not even when the Azov movement with its mobilizations against the capitulation was the last time the threat was raised. Although external forces did not create the conditions or organize the protest, they were necessary to maintain it for months and give them, through international media propaganda, a legitimacy without which their success would have been impossible.

Threats of new Maidan from isolated groups were always empty speech. It is also the latest warning of the preparation of a third Maidan , this time denounced by Volodymyr Zelensky. According to the Ukrainian president, Russia is preparing a “disinformation operation” called Maidan 3 to create internal divisions in Ukraine and provoke a coup d'état. The accusation - empty, since Russia is hardly in a position to cause a coup d'état that could be favorable to it - is part of a series of deepfakes , manipulated videos in which a false Valery Zaluzhny describes Volodymyr Zelensky as a traitor. The publication of these images on Telegram channels occurs at a time when no Russian intervention is needed to show that there are internal divisions and disputes between a part of the political and military authorities. The differences of opinion and internal contradictions have been shown in articles in the major Western pro-Ukrainian media and the denials from the President's Office serve nothing more than confirmation of the denial of reality. A Russian intervention is not necessary to observe the contradiction between the versions of the political and military authorities, for example, in the assessment of the current situation on the front.

Regardless of who made the fake Zaluzhny video, authorship that is difficult to determine and is irrelevant considering the ease with which this speech has been understood as a montage, it is curious that Zelensky's entourage and his related media point to the opposition. Shortly before the publication of the first of the deepfakes , a deputy from European Solidarity, the party of Poroshenko and Parubiy, published on social networks that the current Minister of Defense, Rustem Umerov, had demanded that Zelensky fire General Zaluzhny. Previously, Poroshenko's entourage had accused Zelensky of murdering a soldier close to Zaluzhny. It seems obvious that the accusations of disinformation to provoke a coup d'état or internal divisions are not directed at Russia, but at the only party that could overshadow Zelensky in future elections. This third Maidan is nothing more than one more battle in the confrontation between Zelensky and Poroshenko, who in the past have accused each other of being Russian agents . Like the first and second, this third Maidan is also overflowing with disinformation, manipulation and political use for personal gain.

https://slavyangrad.es/2023/11/20/el-pe ... de-maidan/

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What's happening in the NWO zone: chronicle for November 19
November 19, 2023
Rybar

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Yesterday's information about the breakthrough of Russian troops on the southern flank of the Avdeevsky direction was fully confirmed . The fighters were able to take positions in the industrial zone near the Yasinovataya-2 station, which the Ukrainian Armed Forces had held since 2014, with the beginning of the so-called “ATO.” Now the fighters are expanding the zone of control around the occupied area. There are no major changes on the northern flank: there are battles at AKHZ , Stepovoy and towards Novokalinovo .

Today, the first footage of the use of Russian RBK-500 cluster bombs at the Vremyevsky site in the Staromayorsky area appeared on the Internet . The Russian Aerospace Forces fired shells at Ukrainian landing positions. The use of new types of ammunition can significantly facilitate the work of the Russian Armed Forces on the ground.

In the Kherson direction, fierce fighting continues in Krynki . According to some reports, the Ukrainian Armed Forces managed to advance slightly to the western outskirts of the village, but their further advance was stopped by Russian military personnel.

The situation on the front line and combat operations
Russian troops again hit rear targets of Ukrainian formations at night. According to the Russian Ministry of Defense, the targets were targeted at the Kanatovo airfield in the Kirovograd region, as well as ammunition depots in the Kiev region. There is no other information about the results of the fire damage yet.


There are no significant changes in the Starobelsky direction : fighting is going on in the direction of Sinkovka near Kupyansk . To the south, Russian troops occupied new positions in the Serebryansky forestry. The Russian Armed Forces are trying to quickly identify enemy crossings across the Oskol River and destroy them with targeted artillery strikes.


In the Soledar direction, Russian troops continue to push back Ukrainian formations on the outskirts of Kleshcheevka. The Russian Armed Forces are already fighting for tactical heights, without which the enemy’s holding of a populated area is impractical. Russian unmanned aircraft are actively operating on the frontline, complicating the rotation and delivery of reserves on the part of the Ukrainian Armed Forces.

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Russian military personnel are building on their success on the Avdeevsky sector of the front: on the southern flank, Russian Army soldiers managed to break through enemy defenses in an industrial zone near the Yasinovataya-2 station. As colleagues from the NGP Razvedka channel report , this was achieved thanks to the competent coordination of assault groups, the work of the Russian Aerospace Forces and artillery. The fortifications in this area have been controlled by Ukrainian formations since the beginning of the so-called “ATO” in 2014. The enemy, who did not expect a sharp breakthrough in the defense, retreated, and now the cleanup and expansion of the zone of control to the west continues. However, it is too early to indulge in reports of victory: the Ukrainian Armed Forces continue to draw up reserves to the site and are preparing for a counterattack. At the same time, information from the network about the complete liberation of the Tsarskaya Okhota camp site is premature; fierce fighting continues near the facility.


There have been no significant changes on the northern flanks of Avdievka in recent days: Russian troops managed to expand the zone of control around the wastewater treatment plant near the coke plant and occupy several enemy positions on the approaches to the plant. Nevertheless, there is no talk of a momentary assault on a well-fortified target: artillery and the Russian Aerospace Forces are almost continuously working on it, suppressing enemy activity. In addition, fighting continues towards Novokalinovo and Stepovoy (Petrovsky).

The Ukrainian Armed Forces, in turn, again tried to attack in the area of ​​the waste heap near Gorlovka , but came under artillery fire and retreated, losing a couple of dozen people. At the moment, the top of the waste heap is not controlled by either side of the conflict.


It is raining in the Orekhovsky sector , near Rabotino and Verbovoy , which complicates aerial reconnaissance for both sides, although it does not interfere too much with the work of artillery. East of Rabotino, the Ukrainian Armed Forces attempted to attack in small groups under artillery cover, but rolled back after a shooting battle. A similar situation developed near Verbov. There, the Russian Armed Forces were even able to counterattack and occupy several strong points in forest plantations towards Novofedorovka .


Russian RBK-500 cluster bombs made their debut in the Yuzhnodonetsk direction near Staromayorsky . The airstrike was carried out on positions of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the landings near the populated area. This is the first time a cluster bomb has been used on video, but it probably won't be the last. There have been no changes to the line of combat contact, however, taking into account the replenishment of the range of ammunition used, it can be assumed that the work of the Russian Armed Forces in this area will become noticeably easier.


In the Kherson direction, the Ukrainian Armed Forces continue to hold a bridgehead in the center of Krynoki . According to unconfirmed reports, the enemy managed to slightly expand the zone of control to the western outskirts of the village. There is an active counter-battery fight in the area: almost kamikaze drone operators are working on enemy self-propelled howitzers on the right bank. Without artillery, it will be much more difficult for Ukrainian formations to stay in the area, so each such damaged piece of equipment is worth its weight in gold to the enemy.

Shelling of rear areas and residential areas

At night, the Ukrainian Armed Forces attempted to launch a drone strike on Russia’s rear infrastructure . Air defense units shot down a target in the Bogorodsky district of the Moscow region . Due to falling debris, the local highway was temporarily closed, but there were no injuries or damage.

Ukrainian formations shelled the village of Nikolaevo-Daryino in the Kursk region . As a result of the incident, no one was injured, but the outbuildings and administrative buildings of a local agricultural enterprise were significantly damaged.

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After a long break, Ukrainian formations again began to use the Tochka-U operational-tactical complex . Today they used it to attack Rovenki in the Belgorod region , and the other day they similarly attacked the outskirts of Krasnogorovka in the Avdeevsky sector. Its wreckage was discovered by our soldiers.

The enemy actively used the Tochka-U OTRK at the first stage of the conflict, but by the fall of 2022 their number had sharply decreased due to the exhaustion of missile reserves and the impossibility of their independent production. As a result, the Ukrainian Armed Forces were left with dozens of launchers without ammunition. However, with the help of Western partners, the Kiev regime was able to slightly replenish its reserves through old missiles remaining in the arsenals of the Czech Republic, Poland and Yemen, as well as repairing previously faulty products in its own warehouses. The ammunition for the Tochkas was slightly modernized, replacing the guidance system and increasing the range after changes were made to the fuel system. Now the Ukrainian Armed Forces have several dozen missiles of this type, which are located in warehouses near Dnepropetrovsk .


Despite the enemy’s preoccupation with the ongoing assault by the Russian Armed Forces on the Avdeevsky fortified area, Ukrainian formations still find the opportunity to fire at peaceful settlements of the Donetsk People’s Republic . During the day, the Ukrainian Armed Forces launched strikes on Dokuchaevsk , where a utility company and residential buildings were damaged, Donetsk and Gorlovka . In Kumachovo , as a result of the arrival of five missiles, a school, a store and a House of Culture were seriously damaged, one woman died from her injuries.


Ukrainian formations continue artillery terror on the left bank of the Kherson region . The civilian infrastructure of Nova Kakhovka, Kardashinka, Aleshek, Radensk, Gola Pristan and Kakhovka was under enemy fire . In addition, over the past 24 hours, one civilian from Korsunka was injured.

Political events
A little more about Tochka -U

Returning to the topic of using the Tochek-U APU, it is worth saying that the Armenian authorities promised to transfer several more launchers to the APU. It is possible that agreements on this were reached during Armen Grigoryan’s meeting with Andrei Ermak, although this could have happened even earlier with the participation of the Americans. This is not surprising given the fundamental change in relations with Russia and the Pashinyan administration’s attempt to be annoying in everything. Moreover, in Yerevan they began to prepare documents for the country’s withdrawal from the CSTO.

The exact number of available launchers and missiles is unknown: according to open sources, there were at least three, but according to our data, several more modernized Tochkas were transferred to the Armenians before the North Military District. And all of them, along with an impressive ammunition supply (up to 200 missiles), could end up in Ukraine. At the same time, the White House is actively pushing the issue of transferring the Osa-AK anti-aircraft missile systems, which are in service with the Armenian Armed Forces, to the Ukrainian Armed Forces. Their number, taking into account losses in the Second Karabakh War, can be up to 30-40 units. Considering the current course of the Armenian authorities, we do not completely rule out the option in which the Armenians will give everything they have to Ukraine, without particularly worrying about their defense capability.

About American financial assistance

According to NBC News, a decision on financing the Armed Forces of Ukraine may be made before the end of the year. It is still unknown whether this allocation of money will be a “package” to Ukraine and Israel , or whether they will try to “push” money for the needs of Ukrainian formations together with the “Mexican issue” - security problems on the border with Mexico , for which funds are also being sought. If senators do not manage to agree on the project in the near future, then it is likely that the next consideration of the issue will take place after the new year.

About the problems with the shortage of personnel in the ranks of the Armed Forces of Ukraine

The American edition of CNN reports that the Ukrainian command is faced with problems in recruiting the required amount of manpower due to the growing number of draft dodgers, as well as violent measures by TCC employees, who often use harsh measures during the delivery of the subpoena. Journalists write that almost everyone who wanted to volunteer died or is already at the front. And those who did not join the army for two years and were forcibly drafted have low motivation and do not want to fight.

At the same time, some Ukrainian military officials are making surprising revelations. Thus, the commander of one of the Azov assault battalions, Pyotr Gorbatenko, believes that the country needs to announce the mobilization of students, because “50-year-old grandfathers, when it comes to combat, already look like old people, they have a lot of chronic diseases . ” According to him, the main thing is proper training, thus even untrained students can be turned into soldiers. At the same time, in Ukraine there is a law on military service, according to which so far only citizens over 27 years of age can be mobilized, and accordingly, “catching ” students is illegal. But there is no doubt that the Ukrainian authorities will soon take this step to replenish reserves.

It is worth noting that young people can be mobilized “ voluntarily ” : in Ukraine, it is a common practice for TCC employees to force young men to sign documents under pressure, after which they are sent to the front.

About the “military psychosis” in the EU.

Hungarian Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto made an interesting statement in which he compared the EU leaders' vision of the war as if they were in the computer game Fortnite. He added that “for some mysterious reason they think that supplying arms is the way to make peace ,” and that lives can only be saved by concluding a peace agreement.

However, it should be understood that at the moment the European Union is not interested in ending hostilities .

On the impossibility of the “ future of Ukraine ” without Crimea

The head of the office of the President of Ukraine, Mikhail Podolyak , said that he does not see a future for the country without the “ Ukrainian ” Crimea. He eloquently asked: “Do we have an ending where we don’t go into Crimea, which would clearly say that Ukraine will have a historical perspective? Do we then have at least one chance to survive in historical terms for 10-15 years?” . Therefore, in order to survive, the Ukrainian people “must endure a little longer . ”

However, Podolyak has no equal in his ability to predict the future. Let us recall that back on November 27, 2022, he promised to “turn on the phone on his favorite embankment in Yalta and talk about what Crimea will be like without Russians.” The reality turned out to be somewhat different: pompous attacks on Cape Tarkhankut , which resulted in significant losses of the Ukrainian landing force and a failed counter-offensive in the Zaporozhye region.

https://rybar.ru/chto-proishodit-v-zone ... -noyabrya/

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JOHN VAROLI: INTERVIEWING MR ZELENSKY: HOW REUTERS PROTECTS HIM
NOVEMBER 18, 2023 NATYLIESB

By John Varoli, Substack, 11/10/23

John Varoli is a former foreign correspondent for New York Times, Bloomberg and Reuters TV. Trained as a U.S. foreign policy expert with a focus on Russia and Ukraine.

On Wednesday, I attended a Reuters conference in New York that gathered top CEOs and government officials to discuss global economic and technology issues. I attended as an energy expert. Alas, Reuters had a surprise guest — Vladimir Zelensky. Indeed, media support for Ukraine is a lucrative business.

His interview was conducted live by Reuters via video link. For about 20 minutes, Zelensky skillfully deceived his audience with a performance worthy of an Oscar. The mesmerized audience lapped up every word. They simply don’t know any better. But the journalists in the room knew better. And that’s a huge problem.

Reuters’ Editor-in-Chief asked the questions, all of them polite and easily answered. No one else was allowed to ask a question. I could dismiss this interview as access journalism and Reuters’ wish not to upset Zelensky. But hundreds of thousands of people have died and millions more forced from their homes in a conflict incited by NATO expansion and which was easily avoidable. Therefore, I need to speak out.

Not for a moment was Zelensky put in an uncomfortable position. One question gently touched on Ukraine’s “counteroffensive” without mentioning the massive losses of Ukrainian soldiers and NATO equipment; another question delicately brought up the issue of NATO support in light of the conflict in Gaza; and a third question inquired about what a Trump victory would mean for Ukraine (without mentioning the politically-motivated prosecution that Trump faces).

Even when the question concerned a potentially difficult topic — corruption in Ukraine — it was phrased to make Zelensky look like an anti-corruption crusader, even though 77% of Ukrainians blame him for rampant corruption. (Reuters really hadn’t seen this recent poll of Ukrainians?)

The interview ended with an insult to the Ukrainian people. “Can you tell us one thing that has made you laugh amid the tears of the past two years?” With a big smile on his face, Zelensky answered that his children and his dogs are his greatest joys.

“Sometimes I think that the best way would be if this planet would be the planet of dogs. Sometimes I don’t understand people. Crazy. Crazy people,” concluded Zelensky, as the audience joined him in a burst of laughter.

All the death and destruction is indeed a joke for Zelensky, who grows wealthy on this war as an international celebrity and NATO satrap. Far from the laughter, however, Zelensky’s nationalist regime has turned Ukraine into a dead zone where the funeral and cemetery business is booming; where anyone perceived as a threat to Zelensky’s rule is labeled a “Russian agent” and jailed or killed. Ukraine is a country of horrors where mothers and wives scream in anguish as hundreds of thousands of soldiers have returned home in boxes, if their bodies can even be found.

Ukraine faces a far superior enemy that dominates the skies, the sea and the ground. Several generations of Ukrainian men are being wiped out. A merciless, tyrannical Zelensky gleefully sends his men into a meat grinder. Of course, there is also the tremendous misery that Zelensky’s regime has brought on the people of the rebel Donbass region and Crimea, both of which want to be with Russia.

This conflict could have been avoided if only Zelensky and his Western masters had agreed to keep Ukraine neutral as was stated in the country’s constitution until December 2014; as well as respect the right to self-determination of the ethnic Russians in the Donbass and Crimea regions.

Ukraine’s population is now half of what it was before 2014, with millions scattered across the globe; its economy and industrial base wrecked, and lawlessness and corruption rampant. The country has no future. None whatsoever. This is Zelensky’s legacy. But Reuters, the most powerful news agency on the planet, is apparently not aware of these facts. Why? Because it doesn’t ask the right questions.

Well, since Reuters has trouble conducting a rigorous interview with Zelensky, I’m offering my assistance. Here are 16 questions that a professional and neutral journalist would have asked Zelensky:

1.Political freedom. Mr Zelensky, You’ve shut down opposition parties and jailed those who speak out against your rule. Dissidents have fled abroad to escape your brutal secret police, the SBU, heir to the KGB. You justify this repression by accusing the opposition of being “Russian agents”. How can you call Ukraine a “democracy” with such human rights abuses?
2.Press freedom. Opposition and dissenting media have been shut down and journalists intimidated. What are you afraid of? Will you ever allow freedom of the press to return to Ukraine?
3.freedom. The Ukrainian Orthodox Church, which used to represent half of the country’s population, faces brutal persecution; priests are jailed and churches closed. You justify this heinous policy with accusations that the Church is under Kremlin control. In fact, the UOC’s only “sin” is calling for peace and Slavic unity. Do you plan to entirely dismantle the Church? And do you realize that this is a gross violation of EU and international law?
4.Presidential elections. Do you plan to hold presidential elections? Please explain Why or Why not? And what do you think about your declining popularity and the rising popularity of General Zaluzhny?
5.Palace intrigue. There’s evidence of infighting among the Ukrainian elite, especially in light of the recent murder of Zaluzhny’s assistant. Are you afraid that you might be removed from power in a violent coup by your own military?Cheering on a 98-year old Nazi murderer in Canada’s parliament
6.Peace. You came to power in May 2019 on a platform of peace with Russia. About 80% of Ukrainians supported you on this. They wanted peace with Russia, with whom they are related by language, blood, culture, and religion. Today, hundreds of thousands of your men are dead; 22% of your land taken away. It didn’t have to be like this. You could have made a deal with Russia. How do you justify the carnage of the past 20 months?
7.Nationalist extremism. Ukrainian nationalists, such as Azov Battalion, are very influential in Ukraine and glorify World War 2-era Nazi collaborators that slaughtered thousands of Jews and Poles. Why do you tolerate Nazi supporters? And why did you cheer for the 98-year old Nazi murderer Yaroslav Hunka when you visited Canada’s Parliament in September?
8.Donbass and Crimea. You very well know that Donbass and Crimea are populated by ethnic Russians who want to join the Russian Federation. Why won’t you allow them freedom and the right to self-determination?
9.Murder of civilians in Donbass. So, you claim that the people in rebel Donbass are still “Ukrainians”, but yet your forces constantly bomb their cities, such as Donetsk and Gorlovka, with banned cluster bombs. So, why do you kill people who you consider to be “Ukrainian citizens”?
13.Brutal conscription. We’ve seen many videos of Ukrainians snatched off the streets by your press gangs and forcibly sent to the front. Why do you think many Ukrainians don’t want to fight for you and are resisting the draft?Zelensky truly deserves an Oscar for his acting
11.Attacks on nuclear power plants. Many reports indicate that Ukraine is targeting nuclear reactors, such as the one in Zaporozhye and the one in the Kursk region. This is extremely reckless and dangerous. How do you justify such attacks?
12.Battle of Avdeevka. This key fortress is clearly falling to the Russians. When it falls, what does this mean for Ukrainian forces? Will this lead to a total collapse of the Donbass front, as many experts predict?
13.Worse case scenario. What is your plan if your eastern defenses collapse and the Russians push all the way to the Dnieper River — what will you do then? Will you flee the country and retreat to your villa in Miami? By the way, how much property do you and your family own outside of Ukraine?
14.Bankrupt, devastated country. Most of your population has fled; economy destroyed; national bankruptcy on the horizon. How do you plan to rebuild Ukraine? Are you ready for years of hostility with Russia? Don’t you realize that neither Ukraine nor the West can afford years of conflict with Moscow, which has nearly unlimited resources?
15.NATO expansion. Don’t you realize that NATO expansion into Ukraine is a death sentence for Ukraine? Moscow will never allow it. Also, is it true that in spring 2020 you were ready to make peace with Moscow, but then the British intervened and pushed you to end those talks?
16.Detractors. The number of your detractors in the West is growing and they ridicule you as an ungrateful, annoying beggar. How do you feel about that?

https://natyliesbaldwin.com/2023/11/joh ... tects-him/

Zelensky Is Desperate To Preemptively Discredit Potentially Forthcoming Protests Against Him

ANDREW KORYBKO
NOV 19, 2023

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Ukraine’s socio-economic and political problems are rapidly approaching crisis proportions and can only sustainably be resolved by freezing the conflict and focusing entirely on maintaining stability through multifaceted means.

Bloomberg reported a few days back that Zelensky told a group of journalists that Russia is allegedly plotting a so-called “Maidan 3”, which the Ukrainian leader candidly acknowledged “is understandable” from the perspective of their strategic interests. This warning comes amidst his spiraling rivalry with Commander-In-Chief Zaluzhny, Time Magazine’s claim that some front-line commanders are refusing his orders to advance, and a former NATO Supreme Commander calling for a Korean-like armistice.

The writing is on the wall that NATO’s proxy war on Russia through Ukraine is on its last legs after summer’s failed counteroffensive soured Western policymakers on the scenario of continuing to indefinitely fund this conflict, which was already an issue even prior to the latest Israeli-Hamas war. With Russia having won the “race of logistics”/“war of attrition” with NATO, the bloc can no longer feasibly maintain the pace, scale, and scope of armed aid to Ukraine, ergo the need for freezing the conflict.

Instead of complying with the West’s reported pressure upon him to recommence peace talks with Russia, he flat-out refuses to do so and continues clinging to what Time Magazine described as his messianic delusion of ultimate victory in the words of one of his unnamed senior officials. This places him on the West’s bad side, thus meaning that his patrons might leverage their agents of influence in Ukrainian society and the state to orchestrate a Color Revolution for justifying another coup there.

Candidly speaking, however, no foreign force – whether Russia or the West – actually has to do anything since the socio-economic and political situation is such that large-scale protests against him could automatically start on their own sometime in the coming future. Zelensky’s messianic delusion is leading to more forcible conscription measures to keep up the conflict, which is in turn worsening resentment against him among both average members of society and especially the armed forces’ rank-and-file.

American and European financial aid isn’t what it used to be, and this could soon lead to the government scaling back some of its services and social support programs, not to mention possibly being unable to pay some of its own employees. These aforementioned problems are rapidly approaching crisis proportions and can only sustainably be resolved by freezing the conflict and focusing entirely on maintaining stability through multifaceted means, which is precisely what Zelensky refuses to do.

Seeing as how some sort of large-scale protests might soon be inevitable, irrespective of whether they’re orchestrated to an extent by the West (it’s unrealistic to imagine that Moscow still wields the influence there required to do so), Zelensky is desperately trying to preemptively discredit them. That’s why he’s concocted his conspiracy theory that the Kremlin would be behind this, which inadvertently discredits his secret police who already claimed to have rooted out all “Russian agents” over the past 21 months.

Instead of prioritizing his country’s objective national interests, which rest in freezing the conflict as explained and was also just explicitly recommended by a former NATO Supreme Commander, Zelensky continues indulging in his messianic delusions of ultimate victory at the expense of Ukrainian interests. There’s no way that this will end well for his people regardless of however everything unfolds. It’s premature to predict that he’ll be toppled, but any large-scale protests will weaken his grip on power.

https://korybko.substack.com/p/zelensky ... eemptively

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Ukraine End Game: Putin and Medvedev Discuss Maps, Putting Kiev on the Menu
Posted on November 20, 2023 by Yves Smith

Putin and Medvedev recently made statements that took an expansive view of what “Russian lands” in Ukraine amounted to. At least as far as Putin is concerned, what he said at the November 3 meeting with members of the Civic Chamber is, philosophically, not all that different than the sort of historical observations Putin had made before. Nevertheless, both Ukrainian Pravada and Alexander Mercouris regarded the Putin remarks as potentially significant, and Medevedev reiterating them would seem to confirm that take. And both suggested that Kiev might wind up as part of Russia.

Now admittedly, Ukraine has plenty of reason to be jumpy, Putin was arguably just ringing the changes on favored themes before a relevant audience, and Medvedev was putting on his usual tough cop hat. Or perhaps both Russian leaders are trying to get Ukraine and the West to understand that Russia will control the end-game and reset their views as to what that could amount to.

Regardless of whether these remarks represent a meaningful shift, they serve as a reminder that Russia is on track to take a maximalist stance in terms of territorial acquisition. For instance, even Russia-friendly commentators wondered if Russia would take Odessa. Most now seem to see that as a given and are adding more sections of Ukraine as potential acquisitions. But as we flagged from the very outset, Russia could lose the peace by not coming up with a good solution as to what to do about Western Ukraine.

So does the renewed talk about Ukraine being an artificial construct carved out of Russia, and of Ancient Rus? Or is this just posturing, to make those paying attention less unhappy about the endgame, to act as if Russia has serious designs on parts of Western Ukraine so that when Russia integrates less into Russia, that the West can claim a face saving success?

Ukraine’s Appallingly Poor Prospects

Things are so bad it is hard to know where to begin.

Big Serge recently posted a fine, detailed account of why it was vanishingly unlikely that Ukraine would achieve its aims of pushing Russia back to Ukraine’s 1991 borders. Admittedly, hindsight is 20/20. At the start of the war, many thought, including many in Russia, that the shock and awe sanctions would cripple Russia, ideally lead to Putin’s ouster or at least severely destabilize Russian leadership, and undermine industrial, particularly military, output. The West also believed what is now clear was its own nonsense, that Russia had a poorly armed and led military, when it was was the US and NATO that had optimized their forces to fight insurgents, and had gotten very good at building super expensive, fussy weapons systems that didn’t necessarily perform all that well when tested. Even worse, it still has not been adequately acknowledged that Russia is ahead in many critical categories, such as air defense, hypersonic missiles, and signal jamming.

What is striking about the current state of play is not simply that Ukraine is losing the war with Russia, and it’s just a matter of time before Russia dictates terms, but that the Ukraine government is acting in ways that benefits the Russian military, to the destruction of what is left of its society and economy.

Militarily, Ukraine is approaching a catastrophic condition. That does not mean a collapse is imminent; key variables include whether the Ukraine military leadership revolts against Zelensky and how hard Russia pushes into growing Ukraine weakness. Russia may prefer to go slowly (mind you, it is making a concerted effort to crack the well fortified Avdiivka1), not just to reduce losses of its troops, but also to more throughly bleed out Ukraine and give the West time to adjust psychologically to Ukraine’s prostration.

Another factor that bears repeating is that Russia knows well this is a war against NATO. That will make the eventual defeat more consequential, even if the US and its minions come up with a face-saving pretense, like Putin was going march all the way to Paris (or Poland) and they succeeded in stopping that. That is one aspect that Big Serge gives short shrift: that this was a messy coalition war, which meant that for Ukraine to message success often trumped realistic assessments (how often was Russia just about to run out of missiles? Or having to raid washing machines for chips?). So not only were Ukraine’s backers not making enough weaponry to keep up with Russia’s output (which Russia then kept increasing), it was not the right equipment. Ukraine first stripped NATO cupboards bare of old Soviet style gear, which their troops were trained to handle. They then got a hodge podge of Western materiel, which they were often not well trained enough to handle proficiently, plus the mix of weaponry created a logistical nightmare. Scott Ritter argued that so many different types of equipment put Ukraine in a worse position.

And that’s before getting to poorly (barely) trained forces. Depending on how you are counting, Ukraine is on its third or fourth army. A recent story in Time Magazine serves as one-stop shopping for the deteriorating state of its forces and its difficulty in replenishing losses. The average age at the start of the war (30 to 35, due in part to a demographic dearth of men in their 20s) is now up to 43. And:

Now recruitment is way down. As conscription efforts have intensified around the country, stories are spreading on social media of draft officers pulling men off trains and buses and sending them to the front. Those with means sometimes bribe their way out of service, often by paying for a medical exemption. Such episodes of corruption within the recruitment system became so widespread by the end of the summer that on Aug. 11 Zelensky fired the heads of the draft offices in every region of the country.

The decision was intended to signal his commitment to fighting graft. But the move backfired, according to the senior military officer, as recruitment nearly ground to a halt without leadership. The fired officials also proved difficult to replace, in part because the reputation of the draft offices had been tainted. “Who wants that job?” the officer asks. “It’s like putting a sign on your back that says: corrupt.”

A new CNN article also discusses Ukraine’s manpower problems, but weirdly tries to spin Ukraine as having headroom by not having yet gone to full conscription. But it does point out that Ukraine has imposed martial law and restricts travel

Ukraine’s military was about 15% female as of 2020, and recent rule changes allowed for conscription of women with medical and pharmacy training, so recent claims that Ukraine is conscripting women look largely to be misrepresentations of existing policy. However, it may still be that Ukraine is using more women in combat roles of late: Dima of Military Summary reported this week of seeing a video of a trench with dead women soldiers in it.

Experts have argued that even with diminishing levels of equipment and shells, that absent a revolt or surrender by the military, Ukraine could keep up a fight for a while. The West, after all, is probably capable of sending in materiel at some level. But the manpower, particularly trained manpower, problem is only going to get worse. And it’s now acknowledged in the Western press as pretty bad.

There’s been much less discussion of the Ukraine economy, which is set to go off a more dramatic cliff than its combat capability. Western journalists go almost entirely to Kiev, and then likely only near government buildings and foreign-official venues (tony restaurants) and so have little feel for day to day life. The reporters who do venture further afield are going mainly to combat areas. We need to do a bit more digging and give a fuller report, but it doesn’t take a lot of effort to work out that the near and long-term prospects for Ukraine are terrible, and it was staring out as the poorest and most corrupt country in Europe.

Ukraine is facing a demographic disaster, as Moon of Alabama and others have chronicled. It already had a dearth of young adults due to a birth collapse (similar to what Russia suffered) in the 1990s. It’s no secret that many Ukrainians have fled for Europe and the majority are not expected to come back. Moreover, that population is also likely to skew young. Douglas Macgregor had said that his sources estimate that Ukraine is down from a pre-war population of 43 million to 19 million in the territories the government in Kiev controls. And the scuttlebutt is Zelensky, to keep the fight up, is looking to or has actually started throwing more young people into the meat grinder, by tightening up on essential employment and college exemptions.

And keep in mind that Ukraine is also suffering a high level of debilitation among war survivors. The Wall Street Journal reported months ago that orders for prosthetics might be as high as 50,000. That was before the famed counteroffensive got going.

As we pointed out and the Western press has also been acknowledging, Ukraine has not done a very good job of repairing its grid after the Russian attacks last fall and winter, to the degree it may fall over in certain areas under higher winter loads. Some sources have suggested the repair funds were partly looted. That may be true. But we’ve also pointed out that Ukraine is using Soviet gear and has been exhausting stocks of spared among former Warsaw Pact members. No one is going to set up new factories to do a very large but limited run of various components for Ukraine’s rebuilding. That means that any of the areas that have suffered critical damage that can no longer get replacements from the West will find Russia controls their reconstruction.

Ukraine tax receipts have collapsed as defense spending has spiked. Ukraine projected a budget deficit of $38 billion in March. Given optimistic assumptions about its super duper counteroffensive, one has to think that forecast was similarly optimistic. Set that against two stopgap spending bills with no Ukraine funding and Europe saying loudly that it can’t fill the US money gap. I have no idea what the lag is between allocation approvals and cash actually arriving in Ukraine official coffers, but one would have to think the US till is about to be emptied. And Ukraine will crash from its already fallen level of functioning. In Russia even during its mass privatizations, loss of services and economic/demographic decline, some critical public servants kept working for no or little compensation. Putin made a point of giving teachers their back pay in his early years as President. How much social cohesion is there in Ukraine, particularly after so many have already abandoned it?

Also keep in mind Ukraine had a nominal GDP in 2022 of $160 billion on a nominal basis, nearly $380 billion on a PPP basis. Those figures are likely exaggerated by including the parts of Ukraine that voted to join Russia. So even looking at these results in the most generous way possible, Ukraine is running a deficit of 10% of GDP, when it already has inflation of 30%. Big deficits after a sudden reduction of productive capacity is a textbook prescription for hyperinflation.

We’ve also pointed out the Western reconstruction talk was a bunch of hooey, since private sector types do infrastructure deals only as exercises in looting (we’ve posted on how new-build deals go bankrupt). So at best, this initiative was set to be an exercise in strip mining what was left of Ukraine. That’s now been indirectly confirmed by the reconstruction czar Penny Pritzker herself. From Ukrainska Pravda via Yahoo in Imagine there may be no help: conclusions of US Special Representative’s visit to Ukraine:

Penny Pritzker, US Special Representative for Ukraine’s Recovery, has suggested that officials imagine how the country could survive economically without US aid during her first visit to Ukraine….

Ukrainska Pravda stated that her first visit to Ukraine had left “a rather disturbing aftertaste in many government offices” here.

One of the sources, familiar with the course of Pritzker’s meetings, said that she tried to “lead [them] to the idea” of how Ukraine could survive economically without American aid.

Quote from the source: “At the meetings, Penny tried to get people to think, like, let’s imagine that there is no American aid: what do you need to do over the next year to make sure that your economy can survive even in this situation? And it really stressed everyone out.”

More details: Andrii Hunder, the president of the American Chamber of Commerce in Ukraine, told Ukrainska Pravda that Pritzker’s main question during her visit and meetings with businesses was “What hinders success and who hinders it?”

The UP article reads that perhaps the strongest concern among most people who interacted with Biden’s representative was her call not to wait for Western assistance, but to seek areas of growth as if it wouldn’t be coming.

Does the Russian Map Talk Represent New Thinking About the End Game?

John Mearsheimer has argued that Russia wants a dysfunctional rump Ukraine. The same way the US, NATO and Ukraine obliged Russia’s war of attrition game plan by continuing to throw ever weaker forces against Russian lines, so to have they managed to do even more damage to Ukraine’s economy that the war already would have done by pumping up the military and government with support it could not maintain for the long haul, and then withdrawing it abruptly.

However, even though Russia looks like it will eventually impose its will on Ukraine, Russia still faces constraints. The more of Ukraine Russia decides to incorporate, the more it will have to rebuild. Those efforts would compete with another Putin initiative, announced early in the SMO, of greatly improving public amenities in remote areas (I envision manufacturing and mining towns in the hinterlands). Russia is also already facing labor shortages. To some degree, it might be able to redeploy men now working in manufacturing, particularly arms related, to reconstruction. But Russia may face labor constraints on how quickly it can restore infrastructure and buildings.

Putin and his inner circle likely also recognize the risk and cost of tying to hold areas where Russia is not welcome. Putin even said words to that effect early on. Putin also seems to value referendums as validating integrating territory into Russia. These would argue, all things being equal, for limiting the parts of Ukraine that are candidates for integration to ones with a solidly ethnic Russian majority.

To look at an overlapping set of consideration, ever since the Munich Security Conference, Putin has been trying to get a hostile Europe and US to acknowledge and respect Russia’s security needs. So what territorial end state is optimal, or alternatively, the least bad compromise, particularly given that ex Hungary and Belarus, Russia would continue to have hostile neighbors to its west?

This is why both Putin and Medvedev suggesting Kiev might be part of the equation would seem to be a significant shift. There are lots of maps of electoral results that Western pundits have used as proxies for ethnic Russian versus ethnic Ukrainian representation. This one from the Washington Pos is indicative. You can see Kiev is most assuredly in a European-leaning part of the country, as if that were in doubt:

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But in Putin’s November 3 speech, he described long form as to how Russia has claims on “Ancient Rus” and that would seem to include Kiev2:

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Contrast this with Medvedev’s not-exactly-a-joke earlier proposal:

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Admittedly, Putin has said repeatedly, such as in his 2021 article, On the Historical Unity of Russians and Ukrainians, that Russians and Ukrainians are one people and the recent divisions were engineered to facilitate control. But it’s going to be hard to put the discord genie back in the bottle.

One guess is that Russia has decided it eventually has to take, or ideally, find some other way to subdue Kiev as the administrative center of Ukraine. But what does it do then? Even if Russia is able to create a puppet state, how does it exercise enough control without it becoming a governance and financial albatross? Remember, Kiev is a physically sprawling city of 3 million, straddling the Dnieper. It would be hard to secure it against the will of its inhabitants….unless, say, even more could be encouraged to decamp.

But it seems any other way, with rump Ukraine entering into some sort of victor’s peace with Russia, is ripe for the West trying to undo that. Perhaps (as we and John Helmer have suggested) Russia creates a particularly impoverished and very low population buffer zone (one way is by de-electrifying it) as a DMZ of sorts.

Again, at a minimum Russia’s leadership recognizes it has ever more degrees of freedom in terms of what Ukraine’s end state might be. And I may not be imaginative enough. But I don’t see how things have gotten much better regarding the potentially festering problem of western Ukraine. Perhaps there have been better remedies bandied about by Russian pundits and pols that have not gotten coverage here. Any reader intel or informed speculation very much welcomed.

1 Even so, some regular military commentators take note of the fact that Russia has a potential cauldron here but does not seem to be working hard to close it. They speculate that Russia is leaving it open to allow Ukraine to feed yet more men and material into this fire, just as they did in Bakhmut. As Big Serge points out:

We need to think about that initial Russian assault in the context of the Avdiivka battlespace. Avdiivka is rather unique in that the entire city and the railway running towards it sit upon an elevated ridge. With the city now enveloped on three sides, remaining Ukrainian logistical lines run along the floor of a wetland basin to the west of the city – the only corridor that remains open. Russia now has a position on the dominating heights that directly overlook the basin, and are in the process of expanding their position along the ridge. In fact, contrary to the claim that the Russian assault collapsed with heavy casualties, the Russians continue to expand their zone of control to the west of the railway, have already breached the outskirts of Stepove, and are pushing into the fortified trench network in southeastern Avdiivka proper.

Now, at this point it’s probably rational to want to compare the situation to Bakhmut, but the AFU forces in Avdiivka are actually in a much more dangerous position. Much was made of so-called “fire control” during the battle for Bakhmut, with some insinuating that Russia could isolate the city simply by firing artillery at the supply arteries. Needless to say, this didn’t quite pan out. Ukraine lost plenty of vehicles on the road in and out of Bakhmut, but the corridor remained open – if dangerous – until the very end. In Avdiivka, however, Russia will have direct ATGM line of sight (rather than spotty artillery overwatch) over the supply corridor on the floor of the basin. This is a much more dangerous situation for the AFU, both because Avdiivka has the unusual feature of a single dominating ridge on the spine of the battlespace, and because the dimensions are smaller – the entire Ukrainian supply corridor here runs along a handful of roads in a 4 kilometer gap.

2 From Putin’s remarks at the November 3 meeting:

First of all, we all know very well – these are the facts of history – that all, as you said, the South Russian lands were given to the Soviet Ukraine during the formation of the Soviet Union.

There was no Ukraine as part of the empire, there were regions, and it came in the 16th century, Ukraine, consisted of three regions: Kiev and the Kiev region, Zhitomir, Chernigov – that’s all. It came from the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth, from Poland voluntarily. We have a letter in our archives – I have already mentioned it – we, the Russian Orthodox people, appeal to Moscow, to the Tsar, and so on. In an attempt to defend our rights, we addressed the same letter to Warsaw: we, the Russian Orthodox people, ask to preserve this and that, demand, and so on.

Then what happened happened. They started to form the Soviet Union and created a huge Ukraine, and primarily and to a large extent at the expense of the South Russian lands – all the Black Sea region and so on, although all these cities, as we know, were founded by Catherine the Great after a series of wars with the Ottoman Empire.

Ok, so it happened, modern Russia came to terms with it after the collapse of the Soviet Union. But when they started to exterminate everything Russian there – that is, of course, extreme. And in the end they declared that Russians are not an indigenous nation in these lands – it is a complete outrage, you know? And at the same time, they also started exterminating Russians in Donbas to the applause of the West.

As it turned out that, although they signed the so-called Minsk agreements for a peaceful settlement with us, they were not going to honour them, as it turned out later, and moreover, they publicly refused to honour them at all. And they also started dragging this entire territory into NATO – brazenly, without heeding any of our protests, without paying attention to our position, as if we did not exist at all. This is what lies at the centre of the conflict that is taking place today. This is the cause of this conflict.

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Re: Footnotes from the Ukrainian "Crisis"; New High-Points in Cynicism Part V

Post by blindpig » Tue Nov 21, 2023 12:33 pm

A script for war
POSTED BY @NSANZO ⋅ 11/21/2023

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Volodymyr Zelensky received two important visits yesterday in kyiv that reflect which are the priority sectors for Ukraine. On the one hand, the Ukrainian president received Lloyd Austin, Secretary of Defense of the United States, who repeated the usual slogans and promised, once again, American assistance “as long as it is necessary.” Austin's objective, like Blinken's on his last visit, was none other than to graphically show that Washington has not lost interest in its Ukrainian allies and that it will continue working in the common war against Russia. Austin thus sought to dispel doubts at a time when uncertainty is growing about how and when Joe Biden will obtain Congress' approval of the additional funds he needs to finance Kiev's war effort at least until the November 2024 elections.

“What happens here, in Ukraine, matters not only in Ukraine but matters to the rest of the world. It certainly matters to the United States of America,” Austin said, conveying the message Zelensky wants to hear. “We count on your help,” the Ukrainian president responded to the long-term commitment shown by the Secretary of Defense. However, there were no major announcements of new aid packages (the usual billion remained at 91) and the press questions were directed precisely at the difficulties of the US administration in obtaining the desired financing. Last week, assistance (military and humanitarian) for Ukraine was again left out of the temporary agreement to avoid a government shutdown. “We continue to believe that Congress will provide support and we are planning based on that belief,” Austin added. His words were intended to show confidence, although it is the lack of certainty that transcends them.

However, the gesture and the words are important enough for Zelensky and the Ukrainian Government, especially for their good use of communication tools, capable of transforming defeats into victories and transmitting the most convenient idea at all times. This informative aspect of the war was the focus of the second visit that the Ukrainian president received yesterday. The Ukrainian leader wanted to give value to the work of the press by highlighting its presence in the line of fire since February 24, 2022 and, of course, forgetting those who report from the other side of the front or have suffered injuries or have found the death due to Ukrainian attacks.

“All this time, journalists, cameras, editors, photographers and drivers have been on the front line,” said Zelensky in his meeting with two journalists who have already been through the war in Ukraine, Jerome Starkey, from The Sun , and Fox News ' Benjamin Hall , who suffered serious injuries for which the Ukrainian president has now awarded him the Order of Merit, third class. “As this is a hybrid war, information is also a weapon in Russian hands,” he added. With all Russian media banned in the European Union and demonized to the point of ridicule in the rest of the Western countries, the Russian information presence worldwide can in no way compete with the media machinery that since 2014, and with even more enthusiasm since February 2022, has supported Ukraine.

kyiv has been able to place its message throughout the Western press, undoubtedly the most powerful on the planet, and has managed to make it take more than a year for uncomfortable questions to appear. It is precisely these small dissidences, these attempts to move away minimally from the official Ukrainian discourse that have most bothered Ukraine, which has come to describe articles published by The Economist, The New York Times or The Washington Post as Russian propaganda . Ukraine, for example, angrily protested against an article published by The New York Times that dismantled Kiev's version of the explosion that caused fifty civilian victims in the Konstantinovka market last September. Although the drafters relied on expert evidence and witness testimony, the text was described as favorable to Russia and as an argument that Moscow would use in its favor. It was not enough that the medium's starting point was to make it clear that, despite the fact that the attack was not due to a Russian missile but to Ukrainian anti-aircraft defenses. The article was described as inappropriate for giving arguments to Russia. Reporting on reality has become a weapon of hybrid warfare .

Control of the message and the ability to place its point of view in the mainstream media continues to be one of Kiev's great objectives, especially at times when reality is not on the side and Ukraine does not receive the continuous and favorable coverage it expects. “For some reason, people treat it like a movie,” Zelensky said, referring to the war. “And they hope that there are never long pauses, that the image before their eyes is always changing, that there are surprises almost every day,” he added in a clear reference to the pressures he is feeling due to the lack of progress on the front. “But for us, for our soldiers, war is not a movie,” he stated.

War is not a movie, but it requires a script and that was the objective of Zelensky's meeting with journalists, to whom he wanted to justify the slowness of the offensive and, above all, the need for more help. “They are our lives, it is the hard daily work. And it will not end as soon as we would like, but we have no right to give up and we will not,” Zelensky added to the two journalists, both employees of media owned by News Corp and who attended the meeting accompanied by an even more important person: Lachlan Murdoch. The son of tycoon Rupert Murdoch and current CEO of Fox News received Zelensky's thanks for the visit, which he described as "a significant sign of support at a time when the world's interest is clouded by other events."

Zelensky's interest in Lachlan Murdoch is directly related to the lack of certainty in the words of Lloyd Austin, who despite his attempt to present himself as confident in the possibility of obtaining the desired funds for Ukraine, cannot promise that they will arrive or when they will do so. Everything is in the hands of that Republican minority linked to Donald Trump that has its media and ideological reference in Fox News . Any presence on Fox News can be seen as a way of speaking directly to the former US president, who aspires to return to the White House in less than 15 months, when Ukraine is likely still in need of military and financial aid. The line set by Trump is also followed by that Republican minority capable of blocking or delaying the approval of the funds that Biden and Zelensky so desire. On his last visit to the United States, in which, according to Time magazine , Zelensky tried to be interviewed by important media figures, the Ukrainian president did not get the coveted appearance on Fox News . Fortunately, the serious injuries suffered in the past by one of his journalists have made possible the visit of his executive director to Kiev, a first step in gaining favor with the most watched news channel in the United States.

https://slavyangrad.es/2023/11/21/un-gu ... la-guerra/

Google Translator

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What's happening in the NWO zone: chronicle for November 20
November 20, 2023
Rybar

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In the Kherson direction , the Ukrainian Armed Forces transferred fresh forces to the left bank of the Dnieper , after which they occupied the nearest forest area in the Krynok area . At the same time, despite regular bombings, the enemy is still able to supply its group through Frolov Island . At the same time, the activity of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the Golaya Pristan area increased .

Worsening weather conditions reduced the offensive activity of the parties in several directions at once. The exception is the Avdeevsky sector , where the Ukrainian Armed Forces unsuccessfully tried to counterattack throughout the entire day in the area of ​​the industrial zone, despite the losses.

For the second night in a row, Russian air defense systems intercepted enemy drones in the Moscow region . The last attack was repulsed in the area of ​​the city of Elektrostal . Thanks to the professional work of Russian anti-aircraft gunners, there were no casualties or destruction.

The situation on the front line and combat operations

In the Starobel direction there are positional battles near Kremennaya . Due to worsening weather conditions, the parties abandoned active offensive actions. Nevertheless, taking advantage of the bad weather, forays are carried out in small assault groups. One of these attacks was repulsed by Russian fighters in the Serebryansky forestry area .


In the Donetsk direction, the enemy made several attempts to counterattack in the area of ​​the industrial zone. Without serious aviation and armored vehicle cover, the Ukrainian Armed Forces suffered significant losses. At the same time, Ukrainian formations tried to probe the defenses of the Russian Armed Forces in the waste heap area, but worsening weather forced the enemy to limit themselves to only shelling Russian positions. However, the possibility of new counterattacks by the Ukrainian Armed Forces remains possible.


In the Vremevsky sector, the situation has not undergone significant changes: artillery duels and positional battles continue along the entire line of contact. Ukrainian Armed Forces units still do not undertake any active combat operations, while Russian military personnel occasionally conduct counterattacks north of Priyutnoye and in the Urozhaynoye area .


In the Orekhovsky sector, Ukrainian formations using small groups launched a series of attacks at the Rabotino - Verbovoe line , but were not successful. In turn, units of the Russian Armed Forces were able to occupy several strongholds of the Armed Forces of Ukraine towards the village of Novofedorovka .

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In the Kherson direction, the situation has remained the same for the last few days. Marines from the Katran strike force still hold the central part of Krynoki . Despite regular fire from Russian troops, Ukrainian formations established supplies through Frolov Island , establishing two small crossings across the Konka River . Thanks to this, as well as the constant fire cover of artillery from the right bank and mortar crews from the island zone, the Ukrainian command regularly rotates and replenishes supplies. At night, fresh assault groups were transferred to Krynki and rushed to positions in the forest across the road. Now the detachments are on the same lines, awaiting the arrival of reinforcements. At the same time, there is another assault unit in reserve.

To the west on Aleshkinsky Island there are no significant changes. Marines of the Ukrainian Navy a few weeks ago secured a foothold in the area of ​​the large and small railway bridges and are holding positions there. At night, taking advantage of bad weather conditions, several assault groups on two boats were sent from the island to Sadovoe , Ponyatovka and Ingulets for rest. They were replaced by detachments of the 35th Infantry Brigade.

Enemy artillery is still active along the right bank of the Dnieper , and several MANPADS crews are stationed in the Krynok sector to cover the Marines from air strikes. The activity of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the direction of Golaya Pristan has also increased . In populated areas a short distance from the LBS, units of the separate MTR center “South” have appeared, which may indirectly indicate a possible activation in this area.

Shelling of rear areas and residential areas
For the second night in a row, Ukrainian formations are trying to attack targets in Moscow and the Moscow region . Russian air defense systems intercepted an air target in the area of ​​the city of Elektrostal . There were no casualties or damage.

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In the morning, the Ukrainian Armed Forces shelled the village of Kurkovichi in the Bryansk region : one house and outbuildings were damaged, there were no casualties. In addition, in the evening the Russian Ministry of Defense announced the destruction of an enemy UAV in the sky over the region.

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The enemy continued to attack the Donetsk agglomeration . In the Kirovsky district of Donetsk, he was attacked by Ukrainian UAVs several times a day: during one of these attacks, a man standing at a bus stop was injured. In addition, the Kuibyshev and Kiev districts of the regional capital were under fire. As a result of the shelling of Gorlovka, one civilian was injured.

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Ukrainian formations continue to attack populated areas on the left bank of the Dnieper . Those under fire included Novaya Kakhovka , Kakhovka , Aleshki , Krynki , Dnepryany , Korsunka and Podstepnoe . No damage or casualties were reported.

Political events
Ukraine is preparing a lawsuit against Poland due to the blocking of checkpoints


This was reported by the Ukrainian Association of International Road Carriers. Polish lawyers work with the organization to protect Ukrainian interests. They must normalize the situation as soon as possible: resume the work of checkpoints, and also find out who will pay Kiev for the losses incurred .

On the Polish side of the border with Ukraine, about 3 thousand trucks are stuck and cannot leave . Ukrainian authorities also claim that the Poles are not allowing trucks carrying fuel and humanitarian aid through . Although unhindered passage must be ensured for them. If Polish carriers block, as promised , the checkpoint in Medyka , this will mean that half of the Polish-Ukrainian border crossing points will be blocked. On average, 40-50 thousand trucks cross the border with Poland through the eight existing checkpoints per month - this is twice as much as before the special operation.

Since November 6, Polish carriers have blocked three main checkpoints on the border with Ukraine. They demand that the benefits provided to Ukrainians be cancelled, that the previous compulsory licensing procedure be restored, and that they be given access to the Ukrainian Shlyakh system . At the moment, prices for the delivery of goods from Poland to Ukraine have already increased more than three times. Considering that the holiday rush will begin soon, this is far from the limit.

It turns out that in general, the situation with drivers is approximately the same as previously with Polish farmers. Moreover, the insistence of the Polish authorities that the issue of the blockade (“satisfy the demands of carriers”) can only be resolved in the EU , hints that in this way the Poles are only carrying out a plan to weaken Brussels , because they do not want to make concessions at all and intend to continue to support Ukraine.

On the possible expansion of Ukrainian mobilization

In the Ukrainian media field, they persistently promote the theme of the lack of alternative to total mobilization. The other day, one of the members of the 3rd assault brigade “Azov” said that it was time to finally start sending 18-year-old young people to the front.

Before this, representatives of the Armed Forces of Ukraine publicly spoke about the inadmissibility of protecting draft dodgers and the possibility of conscripting women. Now, words are increasingly heard about the need to mobilize students, which the Kiev regime previously refused due to fear of a social explosion.

Such statements are part of a centralized information campaign to prepare Ukrainian society for unpopular measures. The summer “counteroffensive” cost the Ukrainian Armed Forces high losses with no success, and in order to maintain the ability to conduct operations they need to restore their numbers.

The country's mobilization potential has not yet been exhausted, but each new wave of conscription will lead to increasingly greater costs. But the Kiev regime will “scavenge” people to the last: neither he nor his Western sponsors intend to refuse “war to the last Ukrainian.”

The role of foreign mercenaries in the Ukrainian conflict

In the American media, in addition to the already familiar criticism of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, narratives about foreign mercenaries who went to “ hunt Russians ” but did not understand at all where they were going were again returned. This difference between expectations and reality essentially determined the reasons why the number of “soldiers of fortune” sharply decreased .

In recent decades, the Western military machine has concentrated its efforts on creating an army for local conflicts, limited both in weapons and the geography of combat operations.

A similar concept prevailed in the Russian army, which affected the first stages of the special operation. Unpreparedness for large-scale actions forced the Russian Armed Forces to restructure, which bore fruit later - the Armed Forces of Ukraine achieved virtually no success during the counteroffensive.

And instead of a safari, foreign mercenaries found themselves in a real war with artillery raids, air strikes and electronic countermeasures. In such conditions, their skills and experience from operations in Syria, Iraq and Afghanistan were not particullarly applicable.

https://rybar.ru/chto-proishodit-v-zone ... -noyabrya/

Google Translator

(Other images at link.)

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Some excerpts from Simplicius The Thinker

New Raft of Articles Tighten the Screws on Zelensky, Plead for Course Correction

SIMPLICIUS THE THINKER
NOV 19, 2023
Mainstream publications have fired another salvo of articles this week conveying a cratering outlook for Ukraine. Let’s take a run through the gamut to see just how urgently the tone has shifted, and what it portends.

The first piece is from Foreign Affairs—the official journal of the CFR—written by CFR ex-president Richard Haass (remember him?). Note the deliberately chosen cemetery motif to define the tone:

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Source
It lays out the urgency in no uncertain terms, using very direct language to exhort the U.S. and allies into immediately reorienting Ukraine’s posture from an offensive to a defensive one.

Ukraine and the West are on an unsustainable trajectory, one characterized by a glaring mismatch between ends and the available means…

The United States should begin consultations with Ukraine and its European partners on a strategy centered on Ukraine’s readiness to negotiate a cease-fire with Russia and to simultaneously switch its military emphasis from offense to defense. Kyiv would not give up on restoring territorial integrity or holding Russia economically and legally accountable for its aggression, but it would acknowledge that its near-term priorities need to shift from attempting to liberate more territory to defending and repairing the more than 80 percent of the country that is still under its control.


The article goes on to make a series of concessions that tear through the veil of lies still being wimpled over the public by most pro-UA sources:

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In short: Time is on Russia’s side, Russia’s economy is completely invulnerable to sanctions and is booming, Moscow has true friends and allies who support it, a massive, untapped manpower pool, and Putin is politically unassailable. Haass wastes no words in cutting straight through the illusions to lay it out in as direct and urgent manner as possible for what he perceives to be the still-stupefied intelligentsia.

But here’s where the crux of his strategy comes into play:

Even if Russia were to reject a proposed cease-fire, it would still make sense for Kyiv to put one on the table. Doing so would allow Ukraine to seize the political initiative, reminding publics in the West and beyond that this war remains one of Russian aggression. The Kremlin’s rejection of a cease-fire would help Western governments maintain and tighten sanctions against Russia and help Ukraine nail down long-term military and economic support.

He essentially wants the ceasefire as lure and trap, knowing Russia will reject it, but in doing so will help re-center the narrative of the conflict on Russia as aggressor and peace-spurning bad guy. He believes this could be a jolt to Western solidarity on the Ukrainian issue.

<snip>

The Spectator too joined the fray yesterday:

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The piece details the Zelensky-Zaluzhny feud, and goes on to highlight the divide between what’s presented to the public and what’s nakedly visible on the actual frontlines:

A split is emerging between the soldiers on the front line who know how desperate things are, and the civilians in the cities who believe that the 700,000 people who have been drafted since last February are sufficient to win in some meaningful sense. I spent time on both sides of the divide earlier this year, and saw this perception gap for myself. The soldiers I talked to in the Donetsk region told me their brigades were so understaffed that they were not allowed home: some had been in the battlefield for 18 or even 20 months; others had spent more time at war than at home since 2014.

And then comes another stark admission:

There are few replacements for the fallen and wounded: the days of people queuing at recruitment offices are long gone.

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An actual blurb.
The article relays a ‘growing sense that conscription will eventually take every man’.

In the next few weeks, we will begin to see the build-up to another wave of conscription, now called ‘recruitment’…

The front line will need reinforcements – but that means a frank conversation with the public about the true state of the war. The battalions are thinning, soldiers are tired while fighting is constant. This week, for example, Russia has been trying to encircle Ukrainian troops in Avdiivka, a city in the Donetsk region. Just keeping the Russian army where it is is a struggle that requires the nation’s full efforts.


The truth just keeps tumbling out; confessions like the following would have gotten you ejected and silenced just months ago, now they’ve become a household plea:

So the Ukrainian authorities have two choices: they can keep going with the boosterism and persist in trying to convince everyone that the fighting is going according to plan – or they can start an honest conversation about what’s actually happening.

It’s not just the Ukrainian authorities who avoid unpopular topics, but also the western allies, who crave the sight of heroic Ukrainian fighters making stunning advances, rather than struggling for every trench. Kyiv and Washington may discuss the war without embellishment in private but not in public – and to explain to the world why this war is so hard to win, and why Ukraine needs to continue to be given help anyway, puts at risk the patience and sympathy upon which Ukraine’s survival depends. There should be no shame in acknowledging the truth: Ukraine faces an enemy with superior weaponry, technology and manpower.


The article ends on a rather morbid note, basically implying that Zelensky should continue sacrificing more lives with the nastily condescending hypothetical of whether Ukraine is “willing to make the sacrifice” in order to not pay a “higher price”—insultingly insinuating the sacrifice they’ve already made isn’t enough.

And for Ukraine? Zelensky must talk frankly about the sacrifices that will be required to keep Russian forces at bay for another year. Ukrainians have shown their unity and resilience when they need to defend their homeland. The real question is the extent of the sacrifice everyone is willing to make – and what the most probable outcome will be if they choose not to pay that price any more.

But you see, in many ways, this is Ukraine’s own doing—they’ve dug their grave with the propaganda games they’ve played. By continually downplaying their own losses throughout the war, Ukrainian authorities have instituted the blanket belief through the entire establishment clerisy that there’s far more ‘room’ to expand in the ‘sacrificial’ category. If these pundits and theorists actually knew the real numbers of Ukrainian losses, I wager that even they would balk at prolonging this ongoing massacre.

But because—out of desperation—Ukraine feels the need to over-embellish their numbers to such a wanton degree, these apparatchiks have no choice but to expect ‘more room for growth.’ And so this absurd situation arises where they egg on a walking corpse, assuming it to be in tip-top shape. Think about it, if you were made to believe that Russia had 300k dead while Ukraine only had 40k, wouldn’t you also feel confident urging on the heroic David to finish off the wounded Goliath?

<snip>

Finally the most interesting part comes when M109 Paladin commander ‘Alexander’ reveals how badly the ammo situation has gotten. When he used to shoot 100-150 shells per day in the Zaporozhye and Bakhmut direction, he now can only shoot 15 rounds in Avdeevka.

But here’s the most startling admission:

Not only that: according to this military veteran, the shells lose accuracy because they are used so much. In summer, his Paladin had a margin of error of seven meters over the target; now it is 70 meters.

Wow! So the American M109s had 7m CEPs during the summer, and now he’s getting 70 meter accuracies. That means the barrels are being completely exhausted and there are no replacements. Meanwhile Russian barrels are constantly swapped on the front, as a half-dozen videos I’ve posted attest.

Further, another officer reveals how much better Russia’s trench capabilities are:

The lack of ammunition would also explain one of the biggest Russian advantages in the war, according to Roman, commander of a mortar unit of the Ukrainian 110th Separate Brigade: their trenches.

"The Russians are way ahead of us in trench engineering," says Ivan, who agrees with other military personnel consulted this fall on the various fronts in Donetsk: "The Russians advance 300 or 500 meters and dig, advance 300 meters and dig and dig again. Trenches deeper and more secure than ours. They gain ground and secure it. When we gain a position of theirs we are happy because we are more secure than in ours."


Interesting little nuggets they never tell us in the onslaught of Western propaganda—but this is straight from the horse’s mouth.

But what exactly is responsible for this trench-building superiority? According to the Ukrainian officer, it’s the fact that Russians can take their time and don’t have to worry about mortar fire due to the sheer lack of ammo on the AFU side:

Roman retorts that this Russian ability to build trenches is due to the fact that they do not have enough ammunition to prevent it. According to his calculations, if at the beginning of the war their mortars could fire one for every three enemy projectiles, now the difference is from one to eight. "We can't operate for long either because the air attacks are constant," adds this military officer.

<snip>

So where do we take all this? One report gives an update to the CIA visit:

💥💥💥The West has begun preparations to freeze the conflict in Ukraine

On 15 November, CIA director William Burns, one of the most qualified diplomats in Biden's team and former US ambassador to Russia, visited Kiev. Burns' visit went unnoticed for Ukraine, the Ukrainian mass media practically did not cover it.

According to Roman Troshin, a public and political activist, such a reaction of the media means that Burns' visit cannot be presented as another victory or an increase in support. Rather, it is the opposite. Burns brought unpleasant news for the Ukrainian leadership, and it may have been about suspending funding, freezing the conflict and forcing Kiev to hold peace talks with Moscow even at the cost of territorial concessions.

It is worth noting that the appropriate information background has already been created by the Western media. The publications of Western journalists increasingly point to the West's fatigue with Ukraine and recognise the need to freeze the conflict.

"The preconditions of the Ukrainian crisis will not go anywhere in the foreseeable future. Therefore, the possibility of a freeze looks more like a temporary than a sustainable solution. As I said earlier: the West and America are not ready to fight on two fronts, so we will win soon," the expert believes.

💥💥💥


https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/new ... ighten-the

(Much more at link, do visit. This guy ain't afraid of work!)

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Uranium Particles From Ukraine Detected in Europe Raising Health Issues

Sonja van den Ende

November 18, 2023

The western elites in all their stupidity preach the danger of climate change and ignore the danger of depleted uranium.

In March 2023 the UK and in September 2023, the US, delivered shells filled with depleted uranium to Ukraine, or maybe they delivered it before already, we don’t know, usually when they announce something it already happened!

Depleted uranium can be used to reinforce armour-plating on tanks but is favoured for weapons because of its extreme density and ability to pierce conventional tank armour. These types of shells sharpen on impact, which further increases their ability to bore through armour, and they ignite after contact.

In September 2023 after the delivery of these shells filled with depleted uranium, the Russian Ministry of Defence stated that it carried out strikes on warehouses where Ukrainian troops stored these depleted uranium shells and UK-made long-range Storm-shadow missiles.

“Last night, the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation launched a group strike with high-precision long-range air-based weapons and unmanned aerial vehicles at the storage sites of Storm-shadow cruise missiles and depleted uranium ammunition,” the ministry said in a statement back in September 2023.

Although the head of the International Atomic Energy Agency Rafael Grossi, said that there is no danger to public health in using depleted uranium, the Washington Post and other so-called quality newspapers however, said that there is a real danger to public health. The UK was the first to start deliveries of depleted uranium shells and long-range Storm-shadow missiles to Ukraine in March 2023, also ammunition with depleted uranium for the British tank Challenger 2. The US announced on 6 September 2023, that it would send depleted uranium ammunition and cluster bombs to Ukraine.

In May 2023, information emerged about a powerful explosion in one of the warehouses of the Ukrainian Armed Forces near the city of Khmelnitsky in western Ukraine. Most likely due to a rocket attack by the Russian forces, a warehouse for British uranium-filled grenades was hit. According to some reports, another warehouse containing depleted uranium ammunition was also hit by Russia in the Ternopil region.

This caused panic among the residents of Western Ukraine, but also in the borderlands of Ukraine like Poland. In the Ukrainian media information emerged about an increase in the level of gamma radiation after the destruction of both storage sites. Scientists said a fairly small dose of gamma radiation came from the depleted uranium in the ammunition; a large increase indicates the destruction of a very large number of munitions with depleted uranium, thereby increasing the level of radioactive material in the air.

In recent days, British scientist Dr. Christopher Busby, scientific secretary of the European Radiation Risk Committee, came up with more revelations, studies and reported an increase in the concentration of uranium particles in the air in the south-east of the UK. But he previously published an abstract/paper called: “Uraniumweapons being employed in Ukraine have significantly increased Uranium levels in the air in the UK”.

He begins his research paper with the following text:

“Data covering the period November 2017 to November 2022 was obtained from the Atomic Weapons Establishment, to find if there was an increase in Uranium associated with the Ukraine war. Results from 9 High Volume Air Samplers deployed onsite and offsite by AWE showed that there were significantly increased levels of Uranium in all 9 HVAS samples beginning in February 2022 when the war began. The result has significant public health implications for the UK and Europe”.

Several Research Papers are included in the International Atomic Energy Database and interestingly there was already a conference in 2001, in Prague, the Czech Republic, where several abstracts from various scientists can be read online, about depleted Uranium and the result of its use in former Yugoslavia and (south) Iraq.

NATO’s war on Yugoslavia was waged with all available means. The most advanced military technology was employed without any slightest concern for the consequences for the environment and for human existence. Faceless Western politicians were pushing the buttons. Scientists warned that such political willingness to use tools of mass destruction such as depleted Uranium could bring tragic consequences. The Mainstream media the West but also in Serbia and Yugoslavia were particularly interested in the Depleted Uranium problem in the period from November to March 2001. The then government of Serbia, declared that the total ecological damage caused by the NATO bombing in 1999 exceeded 40 million US dollars. The money from the international community needed to clean up the damage amounted to 20 million dollars and only in five years it would know the devastating effects of depleted uranium on humans. In the decade after the bombing, some 30,000 people in Serbia suffered from cancer, and more than 10,000 of them died.

In Iraq the consequences of bombing or the use of ammunition with depleted uranium are even worse, the long war that officially started in 2003 by the US and its Western allies, but before that there was already the Gulf War and the Iran-Iraq war, has left a trace of destruction for people and the environment, the effects can still be seen todayand are so terrible! As Al-Jazeera writes, “the Contamination from depleted uranium munitions and other military-related pollution is suspected of causing a sharp rise in congenital birth defects, cancer cases, and other illnesses throughout much of Iraq ”. During 2004, the US military carried out two massive military sieges of the city of Fallujah, using large quantities of depleted uranium ammunition, as well as white phosphorus.

There are no real statistics, no numbers, no figures to monitor the inhuman suffering in Iraq. A country destroyed by the West with all its weapons and depleted Uranium and white phosphor, which have devastated humanity and the West continues with these terrible weapons now in Ukraine, with the difference that probably not Russia or Ukraine are the victims but Europe itself will perish under her war madness.

Christopher Busby says that this means that Poland, Germany and other countries in Europe are contaminated with radioactive particles, the so-called fact checkers in the West immediately refuted this claim of the scientist, without really fact checking and discrediting the scientist and others scientists who have been conducting research in this area for years. So says Christopher Busby;

“Our research in Iraq clearly shows that the health effects of uranium particles are very significant. They may also have been the leading cause of cancer in Hiroshima residents exposed to uranium during the so-called black rain.”

The most disturbing thing is that there is no data and no one, except the US, UK and Ukraine itself of course, know how many munitions were fired before Russia destroyed the warehouses, but also after the destruction, it is not known if there are any other warehouses, or whether these tanks with ammunition are still active.

We do not know, just like in former Yugoslavia or Iraq, how many human victims this depleted uranium will cause, not only the civilian population, but also soldiers. We all know the case of the “Gulf War Syndrome” which, according to the US and all other Western states who took part in this war, had an unknown cause, but of course could be a matter of depleted. Most Europeans also remember the Chernobyl disaster, again in Ukraine (still part of the Soviet Union at the time). The wind was in the wrong direction and the radioactive particles spread to Europe, European authorities warned its population at the time to stay indoors and, for example, not to eat fresh spinach from the land, something that no longer happens today and so on, according to scientist Christopher Busby. Europe may be on the verge of a pandemic of various cancers.

In conclusion, we can say that the elites of Europe and the West currently in power in all their stupidity preach the danger of climate change and ignore the danger of depleted uranium, dismissing it as not dangerous to public health, while scientists prove that it can be. Major, what I now consider Western-oriented institutions such as the United Nations, want to implement their 2030 agenda, but ignore depleted uranium that Western countries sent and continue to send to war zones around the world, in other words, the climate madness and all the other agenda items are mainly based on a Western ideology, which the rest two-thirds of the world cannot relate to, as long as the same West continues to send weapons with depleted uranium!

https://strategic-culture.su/news/2023/ ... th-issues/

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Germany gets a new antiwar party, this time on the left

Originally published: Responsible Statecraft on November 15, 2023 by Molly O'Neal (more by Responsible Statecraft) (Posted Nov 18, 2023)
Culture, Ideology, Movements, StrategyEurope, GermanyNewswireAlternative for Germany (AfD), Christian Democrats (CDU/CSU), Die Linke (the Left), Green Party, Greens and liberal Free Democrats (FDP), Social Democrats (SPD)
The long-anticipated move by leftist MP Sahra Wagenknecht to form a new left-populist party opens the prospect of a more active debate within Germany on the policy course taken by the now highly unpopular coalition of Social Democrats, Greens and liberal Free Democrats (FDP).

The potential appeal of this new party will depend largely on whether voters agree that the policy of supporting Ukraine is responsible for Germany’s economic downturn.

Party Configuration
The German political scene has evolved in recent decades away from the alternation in power of the center right Christian Democrats (CDU/CSU) and the center left Social Democrats (SPD), often with the FDP in coalition with one or the other of these, to present a spectrum of parties including the center left Green party, the far-left Die Linke (the Left) party and the right-wing nationalist Alternative for Germany (AfD).

With the lone exception of AfD, these parties all broadly support Ukraine’s war effort, until Ukraine itself is ready to seek a negotiated settlement. CDU/CSU support now stands at 29.4%. The AfD comes second with 21.2%. Support for the three governing parties together has fallen to 35.6%.

The AfD’s spectacular rise in polls seems to many analysts to suggest a generalized dissatisfaction with the status quo, and not necessarily the sudden conversion of many Germans to far-right extremist views. Wagenknecht has called this a “representation gap,” one that her party would seek to exploit.

The long-anticipated announcement on October 23 of the launch of a new party led by Die Linke MP Sahra Wagenknecht makes the course of German politics much less predictable. Even more than the AfD, the new party foregrounds its opposition to the prevailing stance on the war in Ukraine.

Antiwar politics and the “representation gap”
A majority of Die Linke’s Bundestag delegation has backed tough sanctions against Russia, while still opposing weapons exports to Ukraine. Tensions within the parliamentary delegation grew as Wagenknecht, in public and in the Bundestag, assailed the sanctions policy and called for the opening of negotiations to end the war in Ukraine. The party has hovered since the last election just below the 5% threshold of support needed to win representation in the Bundestag. The breaking away of Wagenknecht and her nine colleagues from the Die Linke faction reduces that party to a parliamentary group, rather than a faction, affecting its funding and other prerogatives in the Bundestag.

Wagenknecht and the nine other Die Linke MPs who have joined her effort to form the new party have provisionally named it the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance. They plan to have the party officially formed and ready to contest the European Parliament elections of June 2024 and three state elections in Saxony, Thuringia, and Brandenburg (all in the former East Germany) later next year. This timing seems well chosen: European Parliament elections are typically favorable to smaller parties, and many voters in the eastern states are, for various reasons, favorable to the Wagenknecht initiative.

A snap poll reported on October 31 found that 14% of voters could imagine themselves voting for the new party. This would immediately place it in fourth place, behind the CDU/CSU, AfD, and the SPD, and ahead of the Green party. The new party’s impact would be felt mostly on the AfD, but would attract support from all parties other than the Greens and Die Linke itself.

Wagenknecht’s stated aim is to fill a “representation gap,” which means her party will seek to represent those German voters who do not support further arming of Ukraine and who favor efforts to settle the conflict through diplomacy. Evidence of the existence of this gap is the spectacular rise of AfD which began just after Russia’s invasion in February of 2022 (when AfD support stood at 9.5%) and more recent polls placing AfD support above 20% since mid 2023.

As of March of this year, about 30% of Germans found the arming of Ukraine to have been excessive, and a small majority–52%–said diplomatic efforts to end the conflict had not been adequate. More recently, a majority (52%) opposed providing Taurus missiles to Ukraine.

Wagenknecht’s anti-war popularity
Wagenknecht has been an MP since 2009 and was co-leader of Die Linke in the Bundestag from 2015 to 2019. Born in East Germany, she became active after 1989 in the post-communist Party of Democratic Socialism, initially heading its leftmost, avowedly communist wing. The PDS merged with disaffected leftists of the west German SPD in 2007 and became Die Linke, which for some time enjoyed some electoral success, including in western Germany. Former SPD leader and finance minister, Oskar Lafontaine, was co-founder of Die Linke and is Wagenknecht’s husband.

Because of her frequent appearances on political talk shows, Wagenknecht is fairly well known to the German public. Often the lone dissenter against the prevailing posture on Ukraine, her arguments are always persuasive, articulate and above all dispassionate. She is a controversial figure, but one that remains among the most popular German politicians. A recent poll showed her finishing third behind Defense Minister Pistorius and CSU leader Markus Söder in national approval ratings.

Ukraine War positions: AfD and Wagenknecht
Although AfD’s published program states that there can be no viable security order in Europe that excludes Russia, this issue is not often emphasized in their appeal to voters. By contrast, Sahra Wagenknecht’s notoriety is entirely wedded to her very public antiwar stance. In February 2023, Wagenknecht joined Alice Schwarzer, a leading anti-war activist and editor of the feminist journal EMMA, to put forward a Manifest für Frieden (Manifesto for Peace) and inviting signatures online.

The antiwar demonstration in Berlin on February 25, led by Wagenknecht and Schwarzer, attracted participation by about 10,000 people, but did not produce the momentum that the organizers might have hoped for.

Wagenknecht has called herself a “conservative leftist,” faulting Die Linke with having built its support base among younger, urban progressive voters while allegedly neglecting voters of the working class. This dispute has taken the form of a contest between an identity vs a class basis of leftist politics. Wagenknecht argues for the refocus of the left on defense of the interests of the German working class. She has sounded some caution about what she sees as excessive openness to flows of migrants.

What does it mean?
The launch of organizational efforts to form Wagenknecht’s new party opens the prospect of a more active debate within Germany on the policy course taken by the weak governing coalition. Wagenknecht has stated that she and her party will not cooperate with AfD. The AfD made a very strong showing in recent state elections in the prosperous western states of Hesse and Bavaria, suggesting that its own potential is not confined to eastern Germany. By filling a tempting “gap” in German politics, the Wagenknecht alliance could endeavor to to curb the rise of AfD.

https://mronline.org/2023/11/18/germany ... -the-left/

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In Putin’s Russia Politics is War by Other Means and War is Revolutionizing Russian Military Affairs
by GORDONHAHN
November 16, 2023

The old saying by the German general and military theorist Carl von Clausewitz that war is politics by other means is often true, most often when the politicians and generals running the war understand this. Otherwise, reckless war-fighting becomes very bad politics. Russian President Vladimir Putin has always been a cautious political animal, and he has carried out the ‘special-military operation’ (SVO) or NATO-Russia Ukrainian War consistent with his traditionally balanced approach to politics (https://gordonhahn.com/2017/06/14/putin ... tarianism/). Hence, Putin did not invade Ukraine on February 24, 2022 with overwhelming force, say with the half-million troops he could have deployed. Rather, he sent no more than 200,000 troops along a broad 900-mile front extending from Kherson in the south near Crimea up along the southeastern, eastern, northeastern and northern borders with Russia. In the north, the surge towards Kiev was insufficient to come close to occupying, no less holding Kiev and ‘conquering all of Ukraine’ as US President Joe Biden and Western propagandists claim was Putin’s intent. Putin appeared simply to be escalating his pre-SVO coercive diplomacy in the hope that Kiev and/or Washington would be willing to negotiate on the basis of his December 2021 proposals on creating a new security architecture for Ukraine, Russia, and the West. This effort at politics by means of war failed, as the US and NATO somehow convinced Ukrainian President Volodomyr Zelenskiy to abandon the negotiations and fight a war against his much more powerful neighbor, Putin’s Russia (https://braveneweurope.com/michael-von- ... or-ukraine).

In terms of the NATO-Russia Ukrainian War since then, contrary to the Western misconception, Putin has been conducting neither terrorism nor all-out war. Government and civilian installations and objects have not been targeted unless they have been turned over to the military or the war effort (to house headquarters, store weapons, bivouac troops). Russian forces have been conducting neither ‘human wave’ attacks in frontal assaults on Ukrainian positions nor missile, drone, and artillery attacks targeting civilians. To the contrary, Putin’s Russia is doing everything it can to limit casualties, except against Ukrainian military targets. This stands in sharp contrast to the way Israeli Defense Forces have waged their punitive expedition against Hamas in the Gaza Strip. Indeed, the Ukrainian army itself targeted civilians beginning with in April 2014 with the beginning of its ‘anti-terrorist operation’ against Donbass and has continued to do so intermittently during the present war.

By contrast, Russia’s war strategy and tactics are designed precisely to avoid and eschew practices that would bring large numbers of Ukrainian civilian and Russian military casualties. The strategy is to destroy Ukrainian military forces and potential. For now, Russia pursues victory in its SVO not for the sake of territorial conquest, contrary to Western delusions, but to defeat the Ukrainian army and Maidan regime force Kiev to acquiesce to its political goals: (1) accept Russia’s annexations of territories under threat from Ukrainian discrimination, repression, and violence; (2) renounce membership and close ties with NATO; (3) and adopt measures to protect the Russian language and ethnic Russians in whatever rump Ukraine remains. This will amount to Putin’s declared goals of ‘demilitarization’ and ‘denazification’ of Maidan Ukraine.

By contrast, it has been the Ukrainians who have routinely used human wave tactics, perhaps given their shortage of artillery shells, missiles, drones, and air power. Kiev has carelessly and cruelly thrown human wave after human wave of what frequently have been poorly trained and forced recruits into meat grinders churning with Russian missiles, drone, artillery, and tank fire. This is what happened and continues to happen, for example, around Bakhmut (Artyomevsk), Rabotino, Verbove, Staromayorsk, and across the southern fronts during the Ukrainians’ utterly futile and failed counteroffensive. Westerners and Ukrainians like Zelenskiy told the world would drive to the Azov Sea and Crimea and force the Russians to the negotiating table with a weak hand or even topple Putin. These completely unrealistic military goals has led to Ukrainian casualty count several times higher than the Russians’ own losses—a fact still being hidden from the Ukrainian and Western publics.

Tactically, the Russians in fact have avoided high-casualty engagements by relying on their technological advantages rather than their human-numerical one. In place of human wave tactics or even standard ground war tactics, such as combined arms operations, the Russians have second-echeloned direct combined arms infantry-tank attacks, which are only employed once great damage and intimidation has been leveled against the enemy by way of ‘air power’ in expanded a newly expanded conceptualization of the term (see below). Even traditional air power in the form of fighter jets and attack helicopters are being used sparingly. When faced with an overwhelming or simply a significantly superior Ukrainian force, Russian forces usually withdraw, and then a new attack or intensification of an ongoing offensive on an adjacent front is undertaken to force the Ukrainians to slow down or draw some of their forces away from the targeted front. The Ukrainian force is thereby weakened. Russian air and stand-off (artillery, drones, missiles) power proves sufficient to hold off the less powerful Ukrainian fist, allowing the Russians to regroup and retake any lost kilometers – and usually then some – over time. This is part and parcel of a strategy of defense in flexible depth founded on strong defense lines that flex in the face of great force and draw the enemy into being overextended in its supply lines and troop rotation maneuvers and position to be pounded by long-range attacks from the air.

The Russians have replaced much of the need for ground operations by relying on air power in an expanded conceptualization of the idea. Putting aside Moscow’s large and growing arsenal of various stand off land- and air-based missile systems being used, the Russian military is pioneering drone warfare in Ukraine and its integration into ISTAR or ‘intelligence, surveillance, target acquisition, and reconnaissance’ with the Ukrainians and NATO playing catch up. Before the NATO-Russian Ukrainian War, high-altitude satellite and person-on-the-ground surveillance were the ISR means (intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance minus target acquisition) used to achieve target acquisition. The information gathered would be relayed back to ships, fighter jets, and missile launch centers.

With the massive use of drones, which can cover a greater swathe of territory compared to persons on the ground and with far greater detail than satellite surveillance can and without gaps in data collection forced by cloud cover, the Russian military is redefining air power and revolutionizing warfare. In short, ISR and ISTAR are becoming increasingly drone-based. Drones cannot only find a target for an operator located far from the front, but it can hit the target. Missiles, artillery, and traditional air power cannot perform all these functions and are hundreds of times more expensive. The Russians’ recently upgraded the Lancet drone so it can find and hit a target during flight without the aid of an operator. Commnander-in-chief of the Ukrainian Armd Forces, General Valeriy Zalyuzhniy acknowledged the effectiveness of this Lancet long-hovering or “loitering” drone and other Russian innovations in a recent paper analyzing the supposed “positional” nature or stalemate in the war: “(T)he enemy quite widely and effectively began to use the Lancet loitering munition with target “illumination”, the Orlan, Zala UAVs and others for counter-battery, countering which is quite difficult”(https://infographics.economist.com/2023 ... ERSION.pdf).

“Russia will soon be in a position to send swarms of maneuverable and re-targetable drones armed with several pieces of increasingly more powerful ordinance deliverable to multiple targets. In addition, Russia’s large number of missiles and artillery systems and the now stepped up production thereof helps obviate the need to use close-in air power such as expensive fighter jets and helicopters. Even Russian jets and copters are being equipped with longer-range missiles, just as Russian artillery is becoming ever longer in range, creating even more stand-off capacity. All this has allowed Russia to avoid greater loss of expensive aircraft to Ukrainian air defenses, which are increasingly bad shape but with Western assistance could become more robust.

This stand-off military power allows infantry and tank power to be deployed after the enemy forces have been far more degraded than previously would have been the case, limiting one’s own casualties. Moreover, since all these forms of air power deliver ordinance far more accurately than previous air power, missile and artillery systems and are becoming more accurate still, this form of warfare makes it easier to limit civilian casualties.

Limiting Russian military and Ukrainian civilian casualties, the new war technologies provide dual-use political means. First, the smaller the number of Russian military casualties, the lesser the potential for significant political opposition to the SVO to arise. Second, by limiting Ukrainian civilian casualties, the Russians put a cap on Ukrainian society’s willingness to continue the war and ensure that on the territories Russian troops must seize temporarily during the war or permanently thereafter, there will be fewer prospects for the Ukrainian army or perhaps Ukrainian partisans to find recruits to fight, resist, or engage in espionage, sabotage, subversive, and terrorist operations against the Russian presence. There is also a hesitance on the Russians’ part to inflict a great number of casualties on the Ukrainians, since they are viewed as a fraternal nationality, a part of a larger Russian civilization (https://gordonhahn.com/2023/10/27/worki ... e-version/). In Russia, there is very little anti-Ukrainian sentiment, which has been replaced by anti-fascist sentiment formed by Russian propaganda that tends to exaggerate the, to be sure, very significant ultra-nationalist and neofascist element all too robust in the Ukrainian state and society.

In a dark Dostoevskian act of self-hatred and a desire for revenge against Russia, Zelenskiy refuses to negotiate with the “f…… terrorist Putin.” This approach, — codified in Ukrainian law, which forbids peace talks with Russia — could trump the politics of Putin’s restrained but tough war goals and strategy. In other words, by refusing to negotiate, Kiev and Washington will force Moscow to fully destroy the Ukrainian army by chasing it into adjacent regions Russia then will need to occupy. If or more likely when the Russians win this war, it will have destroyed Ukraine’s army while strengthening its own, making it the most modern and powerful force in the world.

It is said that Tsar Alexander III would often lecture his ministers: “We have only two loyal allies in the entire world: our army and navy.” Thanks to NATO expansion and the Ukrainian war that it and its attendant policies sparked, Russia will be treating her ‘friends’ very well for years to come, bringing a true revolution in Russian military affairs.

https://gordonhahn.com/2023/11/16/in-pu ... y-affairs/
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Re: Footnotes from the Ukrainian "Crisis"; New High-Points in Cynicism Part V

Post by blindpig » Wed Nov 22, 2023 1:10 pm

What's happening in the Northeast Military District zone: chronicle for November 21
November 21, 2023
Rybar

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Over the course of 24 hours, the Russian Armed Forces launched a series of strikes against enemy rear targets on Ukrainian territory. The enemy's deployment point in Selidovo , an ammunition depot in Vladimir - Volynsky , and port infrastructure in the Odessa region were hit . Arrivals to Zaporozhye were also reported .

In turn, Ukrainian formations again used drones to attack Russian targets both in the border and rear regions. Air defense crews and electronic warfare units intercepted drones of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the Bryansk , Kursk and Rostov regions .

Due to the ongoing bad weather, the offensive actions of the parties are mostly local in nature. In the Avdeevsky sector, Russian troops continue to methodically advance on enemy positions, while in the Kherson direction , Ukrainian marines, despite losses, continue to hold a bridgehead in Krynki

The situation on the front line and combat operations
Over the course of 24 hours, the Russian Armed Forces launched a series of attacks on Ukrainian targets. In the city of Selidovo, on enemy-controlled DPR territory, several enemy temporary deployment points were hit. In particular, the blow was struck at the Selidovo city hospital , where the Ukrainian Armed Forces carried out regular rotational activities and also stationed personnel. Another strike hit an ammunition depot on the territory of a tank training ground in Vladimir-Volynsky. The facility regularly conducts training for Ukrainian formations under the guidance of Western instructors. In the evening, the Russian Armed Forces hit port infrastructure facilities in Odessa , as well as targets in Zaporozhye .


With the approach of winter, cold weather with precipitation came to the North Military District zone, which turned country roads and approaches to positions into a shapeless mess. Videos from the Ukrainian side clearly demonstrate the problems arising in this regard. American HMMWVs, Turkish Kirpi armored cars, and Soviet BMP-1s, not to mention ordinary SUVs, are literally drowning in the mud . It is easy to imagine that Russian troops are experiencing similar difficulties. Don’t be fooled by the fact that domestic tanks are lighter than Abrams or Leopard: absolutely any armored vehicles will get stuck in such a quagmire. Although all this will not stop, it will affect the parties’ ability to actively conduct offensive operations at least in some areas. At least until the soil freezes sufficiently.


In the Starobelsky direction, Ukrainian formations attempted counterattacks in the area of ​​Serebryansky forestry and the Torsky ledge , but all of them were successfully repelled by Russian troops. Having suffered losses, the enemy retreated to their original positions.

In the Soledar direction, units of the Russian Armed Forces continue to conduct fierce battles south of Bakhmut . At the same time, constant artillery fire is being conducted on enemy positions in the area of ​​Kleshcheevka and Andreevka .


In the Avdeevsky sector, the Russian Armed Forces continue to develop their offensive in the area of ​​the industrial zone. There are also battles near the ash dump and pumping station. On the southern flank, the Russian Aerospace Forces launched massive strikes with RBK - 500 cluster bombs on enemy positions. In addition, assault detachments of the Russian Armed Forces have established a foothold in the west of the Vinogradniki gardening partnership.


In the Orekhovsky sector, Ukrainian formations again tried to advance in the area of ​​Rabotino and Verbovoy . Russian troops successfully detected the advance of the enemy assault group and stopped it with concentrated artillery fire.


In the Kherson direction, Ukrainian marines continue to hold the central part of Krynoki . Russian troops are striking enemy positions and supply routes, but the Ukrainian Armed Forces retain the ability to rotate and replenish supplies. In addition, enemy targets on the right bank of the Dnieper are also under fire from the Russian Armed Forces: one of them was the temporary deployment point of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the Sadovoye area .

Shelling of rear areas and residential areas

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The Ukrainian Armed Forces tried several times to attack the border regions of the Russian Federation. In the Bryansk region, an enemy UAV attack on approach to Bryansk was thwarted by electronic warfare equipment . A similar attack was foiled in the Rylsky district of the Kursk region . In addition, a Ukrainian drone in the Rostov region was destroyed by air defense systems on duty .

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The enemy continued to fire at populated areas of the DPR . Today, Donetsk (Kuibyshevsky, Kirovsky districts), Gorlovka (Nikitovsky and Tsentralno-Gorodsky districts), Makeevka and Yasinovatsky district are under fire from the Ukrainian Armed Forces . Damage to several residential buildings and the injury of one civilian were reported in Gorlovka. In addition, yesterday the Ukrainian Armed Forces launched a strike from the HIMARS MLRS at the House of Culture in Starobeshevo : one of the missiles damaged the volunteers’ car, the second hit the dressing room. It was reported that actress Polina Menshikh died as a result of the attack .

In the Zaporozhye region, Russian air defense systems worked over Berdyansk . According to preliminary information, there were no injuries or injuries.

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Ukrainian formations continue to carry out chaotic attacks on populated areas on the left bank of the Kherson region . At night, Novaya Kakhovka , Kakhovka , Radensk , Obryvka , Aleshki and Dnepryan came under fire from the Ukrainian Armed Forces . In addition, fighting in the Krynok region continues unabated . Over the past week, the enemy fired more than 800 pieces of ammunition into the Kherson region - these are the highest figures compared to other front-line regions.

Political events
About the visit of the US Secretary of Defense to Ukraine

Yesterday, November 20, Pentagon chief Lloyd Austin, together with the commander of NATO's Allied Armed Forces in Europe, General Christopher Cavoli, arrived on an unannounced visit to Kiev .

The reason for Austin's trip was most likely the unsatisfactory situation at the front for the Ukrainian Armed Forces , which was playing out against the backdrop of the inability of the US Congress to promptly approve military assistance to Ukraine for 2024. Moreover, $1 billion remains to support Kiev , which the United States will have to distribute wisely until a new budget is agreed upon.

Lloyd Austin held a meeting with Vladimir Zelensky , who informed the American Secretary of Defense in detail about the current situation at the front, strategic goals and the priority needs of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. The meeting also resulted in the Pentagon announcing a new tranche of military assistance to Ukraine in the amount of $100 million , which includes:

▪️Stinger MANPADS;
▪️1 unit of HIMARS MLRS and ammunition for it;
▪️155 mm and 105 mm artillery shells;
▪️ATGM TOW;
▪️Javelin ATGM and AT-4 anti-tank grenade launchers;
▪️more than 3 million rounds of small arms ammunition;
▪️explosive ammunition for clearing obstacles;
▪️winter equipment;
▪️spare parts and other field equipment.

As Austin himself has already admitted , the United States “does not have a silver bullet” for Russia in this conflict, so the extreme military aid package is intended only to keep the Ukrainian Armed Forces afloat in the winter.

About German arms supplies to Ukraine

At the same time, German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius , following his trip to Kiev , announced the transfer by Germany of four more IRIS-T air defense systems . Nevertheless, the first air defense system will arrive in Ukraine no earlier than 2024, and the remaining three – closer to 2025. It was also announced that 20 thousand 155-caliber shells would be transferred and the supply of anti-tank mines.

About problems with the supply of 155-mm shells for the Ukrainian Armed Forces

Against the backdrop of the allocation of a new tranche of American military assistance to Ukraine, another piece of news went almost unnoticed. As ABC News reported , although the West promised that the war in the Gaza Strip would not affect the supply of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, in fact, the supply of 155-mm rounds has since dropped by almost 30% .

In fact, something happened that in such a situation could not help but happen: in the United States, the production of artillery ammunition is still at a level that does not allow it to simultaneously meet the needs of Israel, Ukraine and satisfy its own needs.

But even if the operation in Gaza ends soon, Israeli needs for shells will remain high due to the need to replenish arsenals due to the threat of conflict with Hezbollah. So, in any case, the United States will have to slightly reduce the amount of assistance to Ukraine in favor of its ally in the Middle East.

In these conditions, it is the ability of the military-industrial complex of NATO countries to quickly increase the production of 155-mm and other ammunition that will largely determine the volume of military supplies to Ukrainian formations. And the West still has certain difficulties with this.

Zelensky's interview with The Sun: what is important and what is secondary

Vladimir Zelensky gave an interview to the British newspaper The Sun. The conversation with the Ukrainian president itself turned out to be contradictory. On the one hand, during the conversation Zelensky touched upon rather controversial topics related to the “activities of the Russian special services.” He continued to develop the story about the “Maidan-3” being prepared by Russian intelligence. Zelensky also claimed that in the first days of the Ukrainian conflict there were “five or six attempts on his life.” Such feelings of the Ukrainian president about his life or about his office are not surprising, especially against the backdrop of a sharp drop in the ratings of Ukrainian government institutions, as well as a split that has arisen between a number of Ukrainian departments.

However, what deserves the most attention is Zelensky’s call in an interview to the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Valery Zaluzhny “not to engage in politics.” In fact, this call became the first public confirmation of the existing conflict between the OP and the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Rumors of a rift between Zelensky and Zaluzhny actively spread in early November, but Ukrainian officials previously denied the existence of contradictions. It is noteworthy that in parallel with this, Ukrainian Defense Minister Rustem Umerov hinted at possible resignations in the command of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, which could occur in the winter of 2023-2024.

What goals can Maia Sandu pursue on her trip to Kyiv?

President of Moldova Maia Sandu arrived in Kiev and took part in the mourning event on the occasion of the tenth anniversary of the Maidan together with the Zelensky couple . In the photo, all three have mournful faces, trying to comprehend the events of recent years and their future after the collapse of the “Ukraine project.” It is symbolic that it was Sanda who was sent to honor the memory of the Maidan activists, and the European and American officials who arrived in Kiev decided once again not to shine, since Ukraine is no longer in the trend in the media . It is known that the Minister of Defense of Germany Boris Pistorius , the head of the Pentagon Lloyd Austin and the head of the European Council Charles Michel recently arrived in Ukraine . The official reason for Sandu’s visit to Kiev is to discuss the accession of Moldova and Ukraine to the EU, “strengthening regional security and further support for reforms.”

All this can be interpreted as consultations between the leaders of Ukraine and Moldova with their Western curators, who ensure the stability of their proteges in Kyiv and Chisinau. And given the number of military exercises recently held in Moldova, it is possible that a discussion of the forceful reintegration of Transnistria was again on the agenda.

https://rybar.ru/chto-proishodit-v-zone ... -noyabrya/

Google Translator

(Other images at link.)

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Imperialists getting ready to ditch Zelensky
As they reach the bottom of the barrel of funds, weapons and manpower, the imperialists need a frontman who is capable of suing for peace.
Proletarian writers

Tuesday 21 November 2023

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Imperialist politicians and media are visibly distancing themselves from their former favourite Volodymyr Zelensky. Where he was previously presented as a heroic ‘Churchillian’ figure, he now comes across more like Hitler in his last days in a Berlin bunker. This is no accident. As the need to begin negotiating the terms of defeat becomes more urgent, and Zelensky shows himself unable to adapt to this new reality, a narrative to cover his dismissal must now be generated.

Imperialism wanted Ukraine to fight a proxy war against Russia – a war whose ultimate aim was to balkanise the country. This was to be an American war, fought out primarily on Ukrainian soil, led by neo-nazis and sacrificing Ukrainian lives.

That was the reality. But to obscure this reality, the stooge showman president Volodymyr Zelensky had to present in its place a make-believe war, a war of supposed ‘national resistance’ against a bullying oppressor; a war which pitched a supposedly ‘democratic’ Ukrainian David (don’t laugh) against an evil and oppressive Russian Goliath. A war that could be sold to US public opinion (and to the US Congress in particular).

False narratives shifting under pressure of battlefield realities
It was always a struggle to maintain this fiction when the facts on the ground so roundly asserted themselves to the contrary, but, with the help of a compliant media, public opinion in the west for some time remained largely credulous, drip-fed on a diet of fabricated tales of Russian atrocities and Ukrainian derring-do.

What has really started to shift perceptions in a big way is the hopeless collapse of the much-touted Ukrainian spring/summer ‘counteroffensive’. And after being pent up for so long behind a wall of propaganda lies, when reality now comes bursting through, it is unstoppable.

Suddenly everything is spilling out: the corruption infecting every corner of government (with its epicentre in the presidential office itself), the dominance of neo-nazis in public life (with the Waffen SS veteran cheered to the rafters in the Canadian parliament) and the police state reality that underlies the pretty lies about Ukrainian ‘freedom and democracy’.

Most of these unsavoury truths have long been available to anyone prepared to dig a little. But there is nothing like defeat in war to bring them all to the surface.

A recent interview in the Economist with Ukrainian commander-in-chief General Valery Zaluzhny gave a damning assessment of Ukraine’s conduct of the war, concluding that the current military situation is one of ‘stalemate’.

Zaluzhny maintains that an army of Ukraine’s standard ought to have been able to move at a speed of 30km a day as it breached Russian lines, pointing out: “If you look at Nato’s textbooks and at the maths which we did, four months should have been enough time for us to have reached Crimea, to have fought in Crimea, to return from Crimea and to have gone back in and out again.”

Instead of which, his troops got stuck in minefields on the approaches to Bakhmut in the east, where his western-supplied equipment got pummelled by Russian artillery and drones. He says that the same thing happened on the offensive’s main thrust in the south, where inexperienced brigades immediately ran into trouble. (Ukraine’s commander-in-chief on the breakthrough he needs to beat Russia, Economist, 1 November 2023)

Zaluzhny wants to save his own skin – and perhaps even to carve out a political future for himself – by ascribing Kiev’s military disaster to causes beyond his control or somehow down to political interference. But in so doing, he has opened the door a crack, revealing the massive incompetence and waste of lives and money the war has incurred.

US leaders preparing to ditch their failed project
Since February 2022, the USA has spent $43.9bn on what it calls ‘security assistance’ (ie, weapons) for Ukraine. The total that has been spent in propping up the Ukrainian state and national economy as well as its war machine runs to $75bn from the USA alone (supplemented by further billions from Britain and the European Union states). But now NBC News cites one US official as saying there is only about $5bn left in the kitty before the money runs out. Less than Ukraine gets through in a month. (US, European officials broach topic of peace negotiations with Ukraine, sources say, NBC News, 3 November 2023)

A Gallup poll three months ago found that 24 percent of US citizens thought the USA was giving Kiev too much aid. Now the malcontent percentage has risen to 41 percent (in a poll that is bound to be rigged to find in favour of government policy).

This growing mood of public disaffection with the war is reflected in the reluctance of some in Congress, especially on the Republican side, to go on funding Ukraine. In a bid to circumvent resistance to further funding, President Joe Biden is trying to sneak aid for Kiev in on the back of funding for Israel, but this is also facing opposition.

Meanwhile, as a delusional Zelensky continues to insist that there will be “no talks” with Russia until Crimea and all the other liberated Russian territories revert to rule by Kiev, NBC News has reported that “US and European officials have begun quietly talking to the Ukrainian government about what possible peace negotiations with Russia might entail to end the war, according to one current senior US official and one former senior US official familiar with the discussions.

“The conversations have included very broad outlines of what Ukraine might need to give up to reach a deal, the officials said. Some of the talks, which officials described as delicate, took place last month during a meeting of representatives from more than 50 nations supporting Ukraine, including Nato members, known as the Ukraine Defence Contact Group, the officials said.”

Imperialism has no permanent friends …
Ukraine’s illegitimate actor-president Volodymyr Zelensky is finding out what happens when a puppet of imperialism fails to comply with the instructions he has been given by his masters. If, instead of slavishly following orders, he had taken a little time to consider the cruel fate that had awaited other puppets and collaborators when they failed to deliver the results their masters had demanded of them, this former comedian might have been less enthusiastically compliant.

Had he not seen those television images of disappointed collaborators fighting to get aboard the helicopter before it lifted off the roof of the US embassy in Saigon (as was)? Or those more recent images of collaborators fleeing Kabul as the occupation regime abruptly folded?

If imperialism is ruthless against its enemies, it is as much if not more so against its ‘friends’ when they fail to deliver the outcome for which they have been paid. Zelensky has not only failed to deliver on plan, but is now imprudent enough to blame his masters for the failure and obstinate enough to resist all suggestions of talks with Russia.

It was not so long ago that Time magazine showcased Zelensky as Person of the Year for 2022 and had him on the front cover in heroic pose. But a more recent edition of the magazine this month featured a lengthy article by Simon Shuster. Its tone was a million miles away from that earlier fawning coverage – a grim reminder of how fast the imperialists and their pet media will raise you up or bring you low.

Under the mocking headline, ‘Nobody believes in our victory like I do’, Shuster comprehensively tore the Ukrainian leader apart.

“Volodymyr Zelensky was running late …

“The invitation to his speech at the National Archives in Washington had gone out to several hundred guests, including congressional leaders and top officials from the Biden administration. Billed as the main event of his visit in late September, it would give him a chance to inspire US support against Russia with the kind of oratory the world has come to expect from Ukraine’s wartime president. It did not go as planned.

“That afternoon, Zelensky’s meetings at the White House and the Pentagon delayed him by more than an hour, and when he finally arrived to begin his speech at 6:41pm, he looked distant and agitated. He relied on his wife, first lady Olena Zelenska, to carry his message of resilience on the stage beside him, while his own delivery felt stilted, as though he wanted to get it over with. At one point, while handing out medals after the speech, he urged the organiser to hurry things along.....

“After his visit to Washington, Time followed the president and his team back to Kiev, hoping to understand how they would react to the signals they had received, especially the insistent calls for Zelensky to fight corruption inside his own government, and the fading enthusiasm for a war with no end in sight. On my first day in Kiev, I asked one member of his circle how the president was feeling. The response came without a second’s hesitation: ‘Angry.’

“The usual sparkle of his optimism, his sense of humour, his tendency to liven up a meeting in the war room with a bit of banter or a bawdy joke, none of that has survived into the second year of all-out war. ‘Now he walks in, gets the updates, gives the orders, and walks out,’ says one long-time member of his team. Another tells me that, most of all, Zelensky feels betrayed by his western allies. They have left him without the means to win the war, only the means to survive it.

“But his convictions haven’t changed. Despite the recent setbacks on the battlefield, he does not intend to give up fighting or to sue for any kind of peace. On the contrary, his belief in Ukraine’s ultimate victory over Russia has hardened into a form that worries some of his advisers. It is immovable, verging on the messianic.

“‘He deludes himself,’ one of his closest aides tells me in frustration. ‘We’re out of options. We’re not winning. But try telling him that.’” (‘Nobody believes in our victory like I do.’ Inside Volodymyr Zelensky’s struggle to keep Ukraine in the fight by Simon Shuster, Time magazine, 1 November 2023)

https://thecommunists.org/2023/11/21/ne ... raine-war/

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About Ukrainian Pilot.
The news, of course, have been denied by Ukrops. But they and the West live in the alternative universe.


A military pilot from the Armed Forces of Ukraine has defected to Russia, TASS reported on Saturday, citing a person who allegedly organized the pilot’s flight over the frontlines. The Ukrainian is an active-duty serviceman who held the rank of “senior officer” with Kiev’s forces, a Russian Telegram channel following the situation has claimed. “The Ukrainian armed forces pilot is currently in Russia and is being interviewed by the Federal Security Service,” a Russian military strike helicopter pilot, identified by TASS as Aleksey Voevoda, told the agency. Russians were reportedly behind the operation. ... In addition, he had reportedly been helping Russian forces since the outbreak of fighting between Moscow and Kiev, according to a claim by the deputy information minister of the Donetsk People’s Republic, Daniil Beznosov. “The Ukrainian pilot had come down to our side from the very beginning of the special military operation and was helping us with information and in other ways,” the official wrote in a Telegram post.

Thus, it is not defecting per se, it was a return home to a man with integrity and courage. He, highly likely, was given information about circle of suspicion around him and told to escape. He did. I am sure he will be awarded and rewarded by Russia for helping. Good for him.

But it is embarrassment, of course, for Kiev regime and the new Russian meme started to circulate immediately:

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CNN: In order to avoid hijacking of the aircraft and flying them to Russia, F-16s will be supplied (to Ukraine) without wings. Figures;))

http://smoothiex12.blogspot.com/2023/11 ... pilot.html

Typical.
I am not surprised, haven't been for a long while. I am talking about this:

"Директор Службы внешней разведки Российской Федерации Сергей Нарышкин заявил, что Запад требует от режима Зеленского, не считаясь с потерями, продемонстрировать мировому сообществу невозможность победы России в украинском конфликте", — говорится в релизе. По данным разведки, США и Великобритания рекомендуют руководству Украины снизить до 17 лет и повысить до 70 лет призывной возраст, а также проводить дополнительную мобилизацию женщин. В СВР отметили, что министр обороны страны Рустем Умеров предложил Верховной раде изучить возможность понижения минимального возраста для призыва в армию.

Translation: “The Director of the Foreign Intelligence Service of the Russian Federation, Sergei Naryshkin, said that the West demands that the Zelensky regime, regardless of losses, demonstrate to the world community the impossibility of Russia’s victory in the Ukrainian conflict,” the release says. According to intelligence data, the United States and Great Britain recommend that the Ukrainian leadership reduce the draft age to 17 and raise it to 70, as well as carry out additional mobilization of women. The SVR noted that the country's Minister of Defense Rustem Umerov proposed to the Verkhovna Rada to study the possibility of lowering the minimum age for conscription into the army.

This is everything one needs to know about Pentagon and their colleagues from London. Basically, desperately hiding behind backs of women and 17 year old kids. Well, aging men too. So much for "reputation", right? Lord Austin is in 404 pledging (for public mostly) unending support for Nazis in Kiev, but it seems utter delusion is what drives Washington nowadays.

Larry gives a good treatment to a couple of US geopolitical "heavyweights" (a euphemism for credentialed clowns).

If you are looking for more evidence of the panic that has seized the Washington foreign policy elite then the latest offering by Richard Haas and Charles Kupchan is a slam dunk. Haas has been a foreign policy guru since the 1980s. Kupchan is just an academic with nice pedigree but no clout. ... Their piece in Foreign Affairs — Redefining Success in Ukraine: A New Strategy Must Balance Means and Ends -is just one more reminder that years of experience does not make you smart or right. Haas and Kupchan’s lack of critical thinking skills displayed in this article is downright shocking.
Larry talks about this piece in FA.


Redefining Success in Ukraine. A New Strategy Must Balance Means and Ends

I have other suggestions, how about new title: Redefining US "elites" cultural and educational level to equivalent of high school. Plus, US can not do "strategy", it couldn't since WW II, because completely confabulated own military history. Simple as that.

http://smoothiex12.blogspot.com/2023/11/typical.html

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Finland Is Hellbent On Positioning Itself As A Frontline NATO State Against Russia

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ANDREW KORYBKO
NOV 21, 2023

The latest dynamics suggest that NATO is conspiring to place more pressure on Russia along the bloc’s new Finnish member’s frontier, which is intended to provoke reciprocal military moves that can then be decontextualized as so-called “unprovoked aggression” for justifying a self-sustaining cycle of escalation.

Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Alexander Grushko said on Monday that his country will respond in accordance with its national interests if Finland closes the entirety of their joint border like the Finnish Interior Minister threatened to do last week. In the intervening days, the EU said that it’s ready to send forces to that frontier, Finland gassed a group of border crossers, and it also deployed soldiers there too. Taken together, Finland is clearly hellbent on positioning itself as a frontline NATO state against Russia.

It was assessed in summer 2022 that “NATO’s Northern Expansion Isn’t A Major Defeat For Russia” like the Mainstream Media misportrayed it as being and then earlier this spring that “Finland’s Membership In NATO Is More Symbolically Important Than Militarily”. Those conclusions reflected the state of military-strategic affairs at the time, but seeing as how the latter are changing as a result of Finland hyping up an alleged migrant crisis with Russia, so too should those assessments change accordingly.

The latest dynamics suggest that NATO is conspiring to place more pressure on Russia along the bloc’s new Finnish member’s frontier, which is intended to provoke reciprocal military moves that can then be decontextualized as so-called “unprovoked aggression” for justifying a self-sustaining cycle of escalation. It’s unclear how far and fast everything can move, but this seems to be the intent, which importantly comes amidst the bloc rethinking its proxy war on Russia through Ukraine.

This summer’s counteroffensive failed, Russia won the “race of logistics”/“war of attrition” with NATO, and that bloc’s former Supreme Commander recently argued for a Korean-like armistice, all of which is happening against the backdrop of the West reportedly pressuring Kiev to recommence peace talks. In the event that this proxy war freezes, then there’s a certain logic inherent in replacing some of this lost pressure upon Russia via the opening of other fronts like the Finnish one.

Granted, the “mutually assured destruction” (MAD) between NATO and Russia places very real limits on how much pressure can be exerted along this newfound front, but still opening it might be deemed by the bloc’s decisionmakers to be better than keeping it closed in that scenario. In other words, “where one door closes, another opens”, or to be more direct, the end of NATO’s proxy war on Russia via Ukraine could lead to the opening of a less high-stakes but still destabilizing front in Finland.

This outcome would also serve the supplementary purpose of being exploited by the Mainstream Media as the “publicly plausible” pretext for accelerating the Arctic’s militarization. This “final frontier” of the New Cold War is poised to soon be a theater of competition between the US-led West’s Golden Billion and the Sino-Russo Entente due to the Northern Sea Route’s growing role in facilitating East-West trade. Considering this, hyping up the Finnish front like NATO is already doing “kills two birds with one stone”.

The case can thus be made that NATO has concluded that its hegemonic zero-sum interests are best advanced by opening up a “controlled” Finnish front against Russia, which could compensate for the partial closing of the Ukrainian one and push the bloc’s Arctic interests at the same time. For these reasons, Russian-Finnish tensions are expected to further worsen, and all moves that Russia makes in defense of its legitimate interests will be spun as “unprovoked aggression” to speed up these processes.

https://korybko.substack.com/p/finland- ... ositioning

The West Would Never Talk About Its Minorities The Way That Ukraine Talks About Its Russian One

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ANDREW KORYBKO
NOV 21, 2023

The West’s liberal-globalist elite weaponizes identity politics at home and abroad in advance of their New Cold War bloc’s strategic interests, with there being no principle except for the pursuit of power over their domestic and foreign rivals.

Two statements from leading Ukrainian officials this month about their country’s Russian minority should have raised eyebrows among Westerners but regrettably went unnoticed despite them being deemed unacceptable by that bloc if someone within them said the same about their own minorities. Deputy Prime Minister for European integration Olga Stefanishina claimed that no such minority exists anymore, while Rada Speaker Ruslan Stefanchuk said their rights deserve to be infringed.

The first told a press conference on 9 November that “There is no Russian minority in Ukraine. It does not exist. There is not a single judicially defined community identifying itself as a Russian minority.” As for the second, he told state-controlled TV on Monday that “There are no Russian ethnic minorities in Ukraine as of now and there can be none…If a people do not show respect but commit aggression against Ukraine, their rights should be infringed upon in this field.”

Both comments followed the European Commission recommending in early November that Ukraine begin talks on joining the EU, and the bloc didn’t chastise either of those two officials for what they said about their country’s Russian minority, both of whom claimed that the EU supports their stance. Their comments are counterfactual as proven by the US government’s own official statistics per the CIA World Factbook, which reports that 17% of the Ukrainian population is comprised of ethnic Russians.

This is more than the percentage of African Americans in the US and slightly less than the rate of Hispanic Americans so Kiev’s policy towards its Russian minority would be the same as if Washington denied that either of those two exist on subjective administrative and moral grounds. That former Soviet Republic’s “de-Russification” and “Ukrainization” policies created the aforesaid administrative conditions for precisely that purpose, which in turn provoked an uproar that led to the latter faux moral one.

It's understandable that any people would protest the state’s aggressive persecution of their ethnicity, language, and even religion like post-“Maidan” Ukraine has done to its Russian minority, and it’s within their UN-enshrined rights to peacefully demonstrate against this. Nevertheless, as all objective observers already know by now, the West only arbitrarily upholds the implementation of international law whenever its policymakers expect to derive some strategic benefit from doing so.

In this case, the West in general and the EU in particular turn a blind eye towards Ukraine’s persecution of its Russian minority, its administrative elimination of them from national legal existence, and its official’s justification of the preceding internationally illegal policies as part of their proxy war on Russia. This selective approach embodies the so-called “rules-based order” as was explained above, the specific standard of which in this example would be deemed unacceptable if applied within the West itself.

This insight shows that the West’s liberal-globalist elite weaponizes identity politics at home and abroad in advance of their New Cold War bloc’s strategic interests, with there being no principle except for the pursuit of power over their domestic and foreign rivals. It’s undeniable that Ukraine’s Russian minority is treated much worse than the US’ African American or Hispanic American ones, yet the US won’t say a word since it agrees with Stefanchuk that Russians deserve to have their rights infringed.

https://korybko.substack.com/p/the-west ... -about-its

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2004, 2014, 2022: What Is Ukraine Celebrating?

Erkin Oncan

November 21, 2023

The rivalry between pro-Western and pro-Russian factions in post-Soviet Ukraine ended with the victory of those advocating full surrender to the West.

“Dignity and Freedom Day” is currently being celebrated in Ukraine, marking the anniversary of the Euromaidan events that commenced on November 21, 2013. This date has been recognized as a national holiday since 2014. Notably, it commemorates not only the 2014 events but also the Orange Revolution of 2004, which has influenced pro-U.S. political transformations worldwide.

In 2014, the then Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko issued a decree designating this dual-color revolution as a national holiday. In his recent statement, Ukrainian leader Volodymyr Zelensky emphasized the ongoing efforts to position Ukraine within the circle of stars on the EU flag, symbolizing unity among European peoples.

The reference to the European Union (EU) on Ukraine’s national holiday is significant, aligning with the country’s initiation of the candidate membership process. The history of color revolutions in Ukraine is intricately linked with the rise of the far-right and the reshaping of Ukraine according to U.S./EU political interests.

The transformation process began prior to 2004, with Ukraine becoming the first former Soviet republic to sign a partnership and cooperation agreement with the EU in 1994, as per the EU-Ukraine Declaration of December 2, 1991. The turning point came in 2004 when Viktor Yanukovych, advocating strong ties with Russia, won the elections against the pro-Western Viktor Yushchenko. This led to the activation of the Orange Revolution, named after the color used in Yushchenko’s campaign.

Initiated in 2004, this process triggered a profound economic and political crisis, creating a rift between the Russian- and Ukrainian-speaking populations. Although temporarily interrupted after Yanukovych’s election in 2010, pro-Western forces persisted, laying the groundwork for the Euromaidan events in 2014.

The catalyst for the Maidan coup, as it is now known, was the suspension of the association process with the EU by the Ukrainian government on November 21, 2013. Allegations of corruption further fueled pro-Western actions. A symbolic moment occurred on December 8 of the same year when the Lenin statue in Kiev was demolished, signaling a transformative shift for Ukraine.

The activists leading the Maidan protests were primarily figures associated with Ukraine’s Western-backed ultra-nationalist and neo-Nazi movements. The Social-Nationalist Party, founded in 1991 and later renamed Svoboda (ironically meaning “Freedom”), played a significant role in the 2014 protests through its youth organization, Ukrainian Patriot. Notably, neo-Nazi figure Andrey Biletskiy, founder of Trizub (established in 2002 and later transformed into the Azov Battalion), symbolizes the character of the Maidan regime, having been imprisoned for demolishing the Lenin statue in 2011 but subsequently released to enter parliament after the coup.

Dmitry Yarosh, the founder of Praviy Sektor and a manager of Trizub, emerged as a leading figure in neo-Nazi organizations during and after the Maidan protests. Yarosh further gained influence as the chief advisor to the Chief of General Staff of Ukraine. The United States, a major international supporter of the Maidan protests, was notably represented by Victoria Nuland, who, as the Assistant Secretary of State for European and Eurasian Affairs, distributed cookies to Ukrainian activists during the ongoing protests. Nuland’s involvement in shaping the post-coup administration, coupled with the claim that the USA spent $5 billion on Ukraine over two decades, highlighted the significant U.S. role.

The strong U.S. support for the Maidan coup also found expression in the appointment of Hunter Biden, the son of then-U.S. Vice President Joe Biden, to the board of directors of Burisma, Ukraine’s largest energy company. Following the coup, the ultra-nationalist government’s initial actions aimed to erase the Soviet past, suppress Russian cultural presence, and undertake moves against Russians in the country.

The Ukrainian administration implemented measures such as banning the Russian language in public spaces, erecting statues of Nazi collaborators (particularly Bandera), designating their birthdays as public holidays, equalizing the status of Red Army veterans and members of Nazi collaborator organizations, official affiliation of neo-Nazi groups with the Ukrainian army, and the banning, persecution, and killing of members of the Communist Party and socialist organizations.

Russians, predominantly located in the east of the country, formed anti-fascist unions and engaged in Anti-Maidan actions to protect against attacks. This resistance led to the establishment of the Federal State of Novorossiya, comprising the Donetsk and Lugansk People’s Republics.

Despite the Minsk protocol signed by Ukraine, Russia, Donetsk, Lugansk, and OSCE representatives for a ceasefire, Ukrainian forces persisted in their attacks. A protracted war ensued, exacerbated by the special military operation launched by Russia.

Especially from 2019 onward, the Ukrainian army, armed by NATO countries despite not being a NATO member, significantly increased attacks against Donbass, employing weapons prohibited by the Minsk agreements. In essence, these events are directly tied to the dissolution of Soviet Union and, earlier, to imperialism’s attempts to use Ukraine as a base against the USSR/Russia in the last century.

Over the past century, Ukraine has transformed into an outpost for various ideologies, including aligning with Nazism in World War II and adopting far-right and neo-Nazi ideologies post-Maidan coup. The historical competition between pro-Western and pro-Russian sentiments in post-Soviet Ukraine concluded with the victory of those advocating full surrender to the West in the 2014 Maidan coup.

The Ukrainian leader’s emphasis on the EU goal during this “national holiday” aligns with the ongoing process of transforming Ukraine into a far-right and pro-Western state. This transformation, marked by significant events in 2004, 2014, and 2022, reflects the enduring impact of the USSR’s collapse and imperialism’s historical ambitions against Russia.

https://strategic-culture.su/news/2023/ ... lebrating/

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NATO’s Proxy War On Russia Through Ukraine Appears To Be Winding Down

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ANDREW KORYBKO
NOV 22, 2023

Considering all the disadvantageous dynamics that are rapidly converging nowadays, there’s little doubt that NATO’s proxy war on Russia is winding down, though that doesn’t automatically mean that the conflict will soon freeze.

The failure of Ukraine’s counteroffensive, Russia’s victory over NATO in the “race of logistics”, the West’s prioritization of aid to Israel amidst its war with Hamas, US congressional dysfunction, and the upcoming election season have combined to create a crisis for NATO’s proxy war on Russia through Ukraine. These analyses from late August onward will bring everyone up to speed about what’s happening if they haven’t been closely following this New Cold War conflict in recent months:

* 18 August: “A Vicious Blame Game Is Breaking Out After The Counteroffensive Predictably Failed”

* 20 August: “US Policymakers Are Caught In A Dilemma Of Their Own Making After The Failed Counteroffensive”

* 25 August: “The NYT & WSJ’s Critical Articles About Kiev’s Counteroffensive Explain Why It Failed”

* 3 September: “Top Canadian Media Revealed That Poor Medical Equipment Endangers One Million Ukrainian Troops”

* 7 September: “Poland’s Top Military Official Accidentally Discredited NATO On Several Counts”

* 9 September: “WaPo Reported That Ukrainians Are Distrustful Of The West & Flirting With A Ceasefire”

* 14 September: “Why Was Zelensky Overly Defensive In His Latest Interview With The Economist?”

* 14 September: “The New York Times Confirmed That Russia Is Far Ahead Of NATO In The Race Of Logistics”

* 31 October: “Time Magazine Shared Some ‘Politically Inconvenient’ Truths About Ukraine”

* 3 November: “Ukraine’s Commander-In-Chief Made A Last-Ditch Appeal For American Aid”

* 5 November: “The New York Times Wants Everyone To Know About The Growing Zelensky-Zaluzhny Rivalry”

* 8 November: “The Latest Reports Suggest That Secret Talks Are Taking Place Between The US & Russia”

* 14 November: “The Western Public Should Heed The Former NATO Supreme Commander’s Words About Ukraine”

* 19 November: “Zelensky Is Desperate To Preemptively Discredit Potentially Forthcoming Protests Against Him”

And here’s a spree of reports from over the past few days showing how much everything has changed:

* 16 November: “End ‘magical thinking’ about defeating Russia – US experts”

* 16 November: “US Abrams tanks made no difference – Zelensky”

* 17 November: “Zelensky fears a new ‘Maidan’ – Bloomberg”

* 17 November: “Biden signs funding bill that excludes Ukraine”

* 18 November: “Bidens welcomed the Russians – deputy PM”

* 18 November: “Zelensky’s top aide criticizes slow delivery of Western arms”

* 19 November: “Ukraine must brace for loss of US support – ex-ambassador”

* 19 November: “Bloomberg outlines how Russia has shrugged off sanctions”

* 19 November: “Top Zelensky aide questions Ukraine’s ‘survival’”

* 20 November: “Time running short for US military aid to Ukraine – NBC”

* 20 November: “Zelensky demands ‘rapid changes’”

* 20 November: “Ukraine ‘utterly dependent’ on US aid – Treasury secretary”

* 20 November: “STAY OUT: Zelensky warns Ukraine generals that getting involved in politics puts country’s unity at risk”

* 20 November: “Ukraine ‘concerned’ by Western push for Russia talks – security chief”

* 21 November: “No ‘silver bullet’ for Ukraine – Washington”

* 21 November: “Ukraine in ‘big trouble’ – ABC News”

That spree of reports adds credence to the assessment that this proxy war appears to be winding down.

The top takeaways are that: 1) Western financial and military aid is indeed evaporating; 2) Ukraine is now freaking out and fearmongering about the future; 3) political rivalries in that country are intensifying; 4) the West is indeed pressuring Ukraine to enter into peace talks with Russia aimed at freezing the conflict; and 5) organic grassroots protests might break out across Ukraine sometime soon. This isn’t how everything was supposed to be, however, since Kiev promised an altogether different future.

It seems like so long ago, but just six months back the West was hyping everyone up about what to expect from Kiev’s then-upcoming counteroffensive, which was supposed to be a Clausewitzian masterstroke that would showcase the West’s military superiority. Instead of Russian being chased back into its pre-2014 borders, however, the New York Times admitted in late September that “Russia now controls nearly 200 square miles more territory in Ukraine compared with the start of the year.”

Quite clearly, that one country on its own was able to withstand the proxy war onslaught of the “more than 50 nations” that Biden recently boasted had joined the US in arming Ukraine. Even against those odds, it was ultimately Russia – and not Ukraine – that successfully launched its own counteroffensive by expanding the area under its control by 200 square miles. Western stockpiles have been depleted and what’s left is earmarked for Israel, however, so that metric might multiply by early next year.

If the front ends up collapsing in the opposite direction than the West expected would happen just half a year ago, then this New Cold War bloc might feel pressured to launch a conventional on-the-ground intervention to safeguard some of the gains that its people paid over $160 billion to secure. In that scenario, the risk of World War III breaking out by miscalculation would spike, which no responsible policymaker wants to have happen. After all, for as radical as the Western elite is, it’s not suicidal.

Russia is also aware of what’s at stake if it manages to achieve a breakthrough across the coming months should the front collapse as a result of Ukraine’s multidimensional troubles, which is why it appears to still be committed to President Putin’s strong signals from this summer about negotiating peace. So long as Zelensky refuses to comply with his Western patrons’ demands in this respect, however, the abovementioned scenario will remain credible and could materialize sooner than later.

Therein lies the significance of his growing rivalry with Commander-in-Chief Zaluzhny. Ukraine’s top military official could either orchestrate a military coup with the West’s approval – irrespective of whether it follows the outbreak of organic grassroots protests – or be deposed by Zelensky with their approval as a reward for recommencing meaningful peace talks with Russia in some capacity. However it unfolds, Zaluzhny is expected to play a major role in the coming months, whether as a “hero” or “villain”.

Considering all the disadvantageous dynamics that are rapidly converging nowadays, there’s little doubt that NATO’s proxy war on Russia is winding down, though that doesn’t automatically mean that the conflict will soon freeze. It’ll likely continue even if only at a low scale as peace talks, including potentially secret ones, take place (unless the omnipotent threat of a black swan materializes). For all intents and purposes, however, this proxy war will probably be fought at a different tempo from now on.

https://korybko.substack.com/p/natos-pr ... ia-through

{Coulda used some editing, I think.)

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NATO Consulting Agency: How to monetize lobbying
November 21, 2023
Rybar

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The armed conflict in Ukraine intensified the international role of NATO, and at the same time gave the bloc an impetus for development. At the same time, even former functionaries of the alliance had the opportunity to again express themselves and monetize their specialization and lobbying talents.

Thus, in 2014, the consulting firm Rasmussen Global was created in Brussels, which was founded by Anders Fogh Rasmussen immediately after his resignation from the post of NATO Secretary General. The international political consulting firm, headquartered in Copenhagen, provides strategic advice on issues relating to EU policy, security, transatlantic relations, energy, critical commodities and space.

As Secretary General, Fogh Rasmussen stated that in addition to solving the alliance's internal problems, he had two main priorities: relations with Russia and the war in Afghanistan. At the same time, he failed to achieve any more or less significant successes in both of these areas: relations with Moscow entered the most acute crisis, and the alliance shamefully withdrew from Afghanistan, leaving the situation unstable.

However, such failures did not prevent Fog Rasmussen from making many important connections and acquaintances, the potential of which he embodied in Rasmussen Global.

What does Rasmussen Global do?
The consulting agency's responsibilities officially included strategic advice to governments, global organizations and large corporations. According to Fog Rasmussen, globalization affects trade, investment and security, which is “elegantly and simply” reflected in the Rasmussen Global logo, where countries and continents are connected to each other.

Fog Rasmussen's goal is easy to understand by reading his book, The Will to Lead, in which he stated that the United States must "restore America's role as a global leader . "

Without exaggeration, the ex-NATO Secretary General can be called one of the architects of the “Ukraine Project”, since it was introduced into government activities in Kyiv back in 2016. He was then appointed as a freelance adviser to President Petro Poroshenko, and his firm worked on reforms in the country, as well as on its global positioning.

In June 2022, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky asked Fog Rasmussen to co-chair the international working group on security guarantees for Ukraine, along with the head of his Office, Andriy Yermak .

In plundered Ukraine, he manages to “consult” in such a way that for one hour-long lecture on the future of the West, as well as the promotion of democracy, human rights and freedoms, they are willing to pay him 140 thousand dollars.

Rasmussen Global's clients include the governments of Japan, Taiwan and Albania, as well as various multinational companies such as Norway's Equinor, Germany's EnBW and Swedish media holding Viasat.

Since 2015, Rasmussen Global has been headed by Fabrice Pothier , also a former NATO member: he previously worked as head of the policy planning department in the alliance. And it was Pothier who was behind the development of tools for “election transparency” : they were used by civil organizations before the US elections, which were won by Joe Biden . And they tested the system in Mexico.

It is known that the organization employs advisers who combine activities in several decision-making centers and have many years of experience in senior positions in governments and international institutions. In its work, the agency uses LOMs and institutions that shape public opinion, promoting policies on behalf of Rasmussen Global clients. A whole media team works with the organization specifically for this purpose.

Now the agency is actively working in Armenia and Moldova . Until 2022, the organization’s public activities were virtually invisible in the post-Soviet space. However, with the outbreak of hostilities on the territory of Ukraine, information about the agency’s activities began to appear more and more often in the media space.

What's the result?
In other words, the so-called NATO consulting agency is actually working to create a positive image of the alliance and create it as a major force on the world stage. Based on this positioning, membership in the bloc is the most attractive from a security point of view, although this security is formed through the skillful juggling of corrupt experts and loyal media.

Based on recent statements by senior Rasmussen Global employees, it is clear that they are focused on working in the countries of the former USSR with the goal of bringing them into the orbit of NATO members and away from cooperation with Russia.

At the same time, while the agency actively interferes in the politics of the “consulted” country, its employees systematically find out for global corporations all the possibilities for its beneficial use, as a result of which it remains absolutely dependent and without its own resources.

https://rybar.ru/konsaltingovoe-agentst ... t-lobbizm/

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Re: Footnotes from the Ukrainian "Crisis"; New High-Points in Cynicism Part V

Post by blindpig » Thu Nov 23, 2023 1:20 pm

Sensational headlines
POSTED BY @NSANZO ⋅ 11/22/2023

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Volodymyr Zelensky's meeting with the two News Corp. media journalists and especially with the executive director of Fox News was not limited to seeking the attention of the manager and son of the owner and founder of the group in search of greater coverage on the channel favorite news channel of Donald Trump and his political followers. Zelensky is aware of the need to use every possible opportunity to maintain his media presence, increasingly complicated now that the war in Ukraine competes with the war in Gaza for the interest of the international public, already tired, even before October 7, of the European conflict. The Ukrainian president gained attention and media space thanks to this visit and wanted to take advantage of it by giving as many messages as possible.

Speaking with The Sun , a well-known British tabloid, Zelensky did not hesitate to give a sensational headline for one of the media that best represents that style. “Speaking to The Sun at his headquarters in the Kiev fortress, Mr. Zelensky admitted to having lost count of all the attempts to assassinate him since Russia launched the full-scale invasion on February 24 last year,” the outlet writes. . The use of the verb admit instead of allege already shows the clear ideological positioning of the article, similar to what the large prestigious media have also used throughout this time. There has never been evidence of any assassination attempt on Zelensky and it is Ukraine that has acted, first covertly and now openly acknowledging it, carrying out targeted assassinations. This has been revealed by Western media such as The Economist and The Washington Post and is also confirmed by Zelensky in his interview, in which he refuses to give details, but refers to this type of special operations in Russia and in “our temporarily occupied territories.” . Everything is justified, according to the Ukrainian president, since “we have the right to defend our land”, which seems to include inventing an anti-terrorist operation to justify the use of armed forces against the protests of the population of Donbass, assassinating signatories of the peace agreements or even, as he refuses to reject when asked by The Sun , assassinate Vladimir Putin.

Assassinating Vladimir Putin would be justified, as would exploiting the idea of ​​Zelensky's assassination attempts despite the complete absence of evidence. What's more, it is known that one of Naftali Bennett's tasks in his mediation phase was precisely to obtain security guarantees for Zelensky. As the historian expert on Russia and Ukraine Tarik Cyrill Amar recalled yesterday, Zelensky “did not come out of hiding” until he received confirmation from Vladimir Putin from the then Israeli Prime Minister that he would not be assassinated. Even so, the Ukrainian president narrated a cinematographic story of constant assassination attempts in which “the first one is very interesting, when it is the first time, and from then on it is like Covid,” he stated, adding that “first of all, people don't know what to do with it and it seems very scary,” but “after that, it's just intelligence sharing with you details that another group has come to Ukraine for this.”

Curiously, those Ukrainian officers who have been killed far from the front have been the result, as even the Ukrainian side has recognized, of internal fighting. However, it is undoubtedly more spectacular to claim, as The Sun does based on the Ukrainian president's admissions , that “Mr Zelensky's bodyguards armored his office with makeshift barricades and pieces of plywood. His closest allies received rifles and bulletproof vests. One of them stated that the office was like a madhouse .” Within days of the start of the Russian military operation, Ukraine received assurances that Zelensky would not be a target. Ignoring reality, the communication strategy of the President's Office decided to maintain the idea as one of the bases for the creation of a heroic speech that justified the need to support Kiev and the Ukrainian Government with weapons, ammunition, financing and absolute solidarity. in his fight against Russia.

The argument, despite having become absolutely obsolete, is still useful for Zelensky. The Sun, evidently willing to publish any empty allegation, quotes one of the advisors to the Ukrainian presidency denouncing constant coup attempts. So it cannot be coincidental considering that this week marks ten years since the beginning of the Maidan, the President's Office wanted to classify them as Maidan 3. The objective of all these empty accusations but closely linked to the recent history of the conflict Russian-Ukrainian is none other than recreating the positions of February and March 2022.

Returning to those moments is important for the Ukrainian Government in the current context of doubts about the financing of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and their chances of success on the front. As was clear in the conversation with The Sun , Volodymyr Zelensky seeks to recover the consensus of the first months of the war in which Kiev and its Western partners agreed that the only possible way to resolve the war was military victory. .

In his interview, the Ukrainian president reaffirmed his intention not to call elections during the war and reproached the generals for their attempt to enter politics, a comment that has been widely understood as the acceptance that there is an internal conflict between the of the President and the military leadership, primarily General Valery Zaluzhny. Despite the context of internal fighting, blockade on the front and uncertainty about the continuation of US military assistance, the Ukrainian president wanted to send an image of strength both personally, the man who has survived a dozen assassination attempts, and nationally. . All this to defend themselves from increasingly insistent suggestions about the possibility of negotiating with Russia.

Yesterday morning, it was Oleksiy Danilov, president of the National Security and Defense Council, who denounced incipient pressures. The day before, the same day that Zelensky received a long-term commitment from the US Secretary of Defense, a message published by NATO on its official social media profiles stated that the Alliance's objective was to support Ukraine "to “That you are in the strongest possible position at the negotiating table when the time comes.” Although this is not a suggestion for the current moment, that is not the message that kyiv wants to hear. Zelensky made it clear in his last interview by stating that “Are things difficult on the front? Yes, but make friends or start a negotiating table with Russia now? No!". The Ukrainian president denies the possibility of diplomatic channels, arguing that “they want to kill us. And we want justice.” A justice that involves years of bombings and economic blockade of Donbass, selective assassinations, sabotage of peace agreements and an intolerance that leads to denying even the civil factor of the Ukrainian conflict. War is the way to avoid dealing with that internal political aspect. To do this, Ukraine needs more weapons, financing and media attention, for which it is essential to show a speech full of epic for which the former actor Zelensky and his entourage, mainly from the audiovisual business, are especially well prepared.

https://slavyangrad.es/2023/11/22/titul ... onalistas/

Google Translator

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What's happening in the Northeast Military District zone: chronicle for November 22
November 23, 2023
Rybar

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The main events of the day unfolded in the Avdeevsky sector , where Russian troops, as a result of a surprise attack, occupied new positions in the Yasinovat industrial zone on the southern flank. The enemy was thrown back, but we should expect attempts to restore lost positions on the part of the Ukrainian Armed Forces.

In the Gorlovka area , the enemy attacked with several infantry units towards Mayorsk , conducting reconnaissance in force. However, without armored vehicle cover, the offensive was stopped, and the Ukrainian formations rolled back to their original positions with losses.

In the Kherson direction, the enemy still holds a bridgehead in the center of the village of Krynki on the left bank of the Dnieper . Despite the active fire impact of aviation and artillery, the Ukrainian Armed Forces, suffering heavy losses in manpower, hold their positions in the populated area. At the same time, Russian fighters managed to hit enemy personnel on the right bank that were preparing to be transferred to the village.

Repelling an attack by unmanned boats near Evpatoria

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Quite routinely at night, Russian sailors of the Black Sea Fleet of the Russian Navy repelled an attack by Ukrainian formations near Yevpatoria in Crimea . At around 2 a.m., four unmanned boats were discovered near Lake Donuzlav northwest of Yevpatoria, which were sent to the peninsula from the Odessa region . Somewhere at 02.30, on the approach to Donuzlav, three BeKs were destroyed by airborne weapons from ships and boats of the Black Sea Fleet. And for some reason the fourth drone washed ashore in approximately the same area.

The enemy’s goal in the vicinity of the lake was quite obvious: the Ukrainian Armed Forces were trying to hit the fleet’s base with drones, as happened a little less than two weeks ago in Chernomorskoye . Then, taking advantage of the lack of booms at the entrance to the bay, the enemy managed to hit several boats. But this time the sailors were on the alert, thanks to which they managed to repel the attack.

The situation on the front line and combat operations

In the Starobelsky direction, the enemy attempted a counterattack in the Serebryansky forestry area. Without proper cover from armored vehicles, the Ukrainian formations were unable to achieve success, after which, having lost some of their manpower during the assault, they were forced to retreat. In other areas of the direction, positional clashes are taking place.


In the Soledar direction On the southern flank of Bakhmut, battles continue for tactical heights near Kleshcheevka . Despite the fact that the area is shrouded in the “fog of war,” images from the field are being received of the destruction of Ukrainian formations on the contact line. In general, there are no significant details of what is happening yet.

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In the Avdeevsky sector, the Russian Armed Forces continue to build on their success. According to the NGP Razvedka channel , today on the southern flank Russian assault units managed to take the enemy by surprise and storm to occupy five buildings in the industrial zone. The particular value of the advance in this area is due to the fact that the Ukrainian Armed Forces have been building fortifications here since 2014. There was no counterattack in response to the surprise attack, since the Ukrainian forces did not have time to request reinforcements, which allowed the Russian attack aircraft to successfully gain a foothold in new positions. However, it can be expected that in the near future the enemy will concentrate part of its reserves in this direction in order to slow down the advance of the Russian Armed Forces further to the west.


In the evening, infantry, with the support of armored vehicles, broke the resistance of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the industrial zone, which is currently 80% under the control of the Russian Armed Forces. The enemy has a few houses left on the western outskirts and their capture is just a matter of time. Also on the southern flank, in the area of ​​the Khimik microdistrict, massive air strikes are reported on Ukrainian Armed Forces targets with RBK-500 cluster weapons, the use of which was previously tested in the Staromayorsky area .

To the north, in the Gorlovka area , the enemy tried to attack in the direction of Mayorsk , but the artillery of the Russian Armed Forces first scattered the ranks of the Ukrainian Armed Forces and then put them to flight. As a result of the four-hour offensive, the Ukrainian formations lost over fifty people killed and wounded, without achieving success. In the Novokalinovo area on the northern flank, the enemy holds its position, despite the constant fire from the artillery of the Russian Armed Forces and heavy losses in manpower.


In addition, truly unique footage of the storming of the Avdeevka fortified area by fighters of the international brigade “ Pyatnashka ”, taken last month, has gone viral online . The video begins with the detonation of the Ukrainian Armed Forces’ position at the ring road junction using a 500 kg charge, which was installed there after making a 170 -meter-long tunnel (!) . The next day, Russian soldiers went through the tunnel through the resulting crater to the enemy trenches and began to take the dugouts. As a result of the battle, members of the Ukrainian formations abandoned their lines. If it weren’t for the FPV drones flying directly at the enemy’s heads, then what is happening in the video could easily be mistaken for the events of the First World War with its “positional deadlock.” Unless the fields are shrouded in poisonous gases, and tanks have long been invented.

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In the Orekhovsky sector, clashes continue at the Rabotino - Verbovoe line . The Ukrainian Armed Forces made another attempt to attack near Rabotino, but did not reach their goal and retreated with losses. In addition, battles took place northwest of Verbovoy, but no changes in the configuration of the front occurred.


In the Kherson direction, attempts continue to push Ukrainian formations out of the village of Krynki on the left bank of the Dnieper . Russian troops are attacking the positions of the Ukrainian Armed Forces with artillery, aviation and drones, but so far they have managed to hold their positions. Nevertheless, every day the Russian Armed Forces inflict significant damage on the enemy: today the Lancet UAV hit the transport of fresh enemy forces during preparation for the transfer to Krynki, disrupting the rotation.

Shelling of rear areas and residential areas
In the Kursk region, the Ukrainian Armed Forces attacked the village of Anatolyevka , Rylsky district. Several residential buildings were damaged, but no one was injured.

In the Belgorod region, the enemy shelled the village of Murom , Shebekinsky urban district. There were no reports of casualties or damage.

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During the day, Ukrainian formations attacked the Donetsk agglomeration. In the Kirovsky district of Donetsk, two girls and a woman were injured as a result of shells dropped from a UAV. Rescuers arrived at the scene of the accident, but they themselves came under repeated attack by the Ukrainian Armed Forces: four of them received moderately severe shrapnel wounds. Three more people were injured in the Petrovsky district , including one child, and power lines and transformers were damaged in Kuibyshevsky . In addition, Gorlovka came under fire , where one civilian was also wounded. Transformer substations in the Nikitovsky district of the city were also damaged . At the same time, during the day, Yasinovataya, the village of Lipovoe and Makeevka were shelled near the Ukrainian Armed Forces .

In the rear of the Zaporozhye region , in the Tokmak area, the Ukrainian Armed Forces wounded Rossiya 24 journalist Boris Maksudov by attacking the city with a drone. He received shrapnel wounds, but fortunately his life is not in danger. In addition, in the morning air defense systems intercepted several shells in the Berdyansk area . However, there is no information about the details of the latest incident.

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Ukrainian formations again launched a series of attacks on populated areas of the Kherson region on the left bank of the Dnieper. Nova Kakhovka, Kakhovka, Krynki , Cossack Camps , Sagi , Aleshki , Golaya Pristan and Novaya Mayachka were hit . In the latter, a civilian was wounded as a result of shelling.

Political events
About possible problems with financing Ukraine

According to Bloomberg, the EU was unable to agree on a financial support plan for Ukraine in the amount of 20 billion euros over the next four years. One of the countries that reportedly abandoned the plan was Germany . Now we are talking about finding at least 5 billion for a year, during which it will be possible to look for additional sources of funding for the Armed Forces of Ukraine for the future. In addition, Politico reports that Viktor Orban intends to block any type of EU assistance for Ukraine. According to his words, quoted in a letter to the Chairman of the European Council, Charles Michel , there can be no talk of Ukraine joining the alliance, allocating money or discussing new sanctions against Russia until a “strategic discussion” is held between the leaders of the EU countries. “The European Council must take stock of the implementation and effectiveness of our current policies towards Ukraine, including various assistance programmes.” Orbán asks a reasonable question why Europe should continue to fund Ukraine while the main donor, the United States, is cutting support due to the political crisis. Without the participation of the United States, the money allocated is likely to weaken the position of politicians within the EU rather than help Ukraine, since these amounts are not enough. In this regard, a dilemma arises: can Europe alone “pull the burden” of financing the Armed Forces of Ukraine, or should these goals be abandoned in favor of internal problems in the bloc?


Organizers of the recruitment of Russian mercenaries into the Armed Forces of Ukraine: why the Polish fund was called non-lethal in the Russian Federation

The Ministry of Justice of the Russian Federation included the Polish Civic Council in the register of undesirable organizations (“Civil Council”: it recruits Russian mercenaries for Ukrainian legionnaires. It is alleged that the Civic Council previously collaborated (read - directed) with the Russian Volunteer Corps (RDK). Now it is participating in the preparation of the “Siberian battalion" . The "international secretary" of the organization is Anastasia Sergeeva, who is on the board of Za Wolną Rosję and heads the WOT Foundation (two main anti-Russian foundations in Poland). The coordinator is an expert from the American Free Russia Foundation Denis Sokolov . According to him, the tasks of the Civic Council includes “to help Ukrainians […] drive out the occupiers from their land and then liberate their homeland, each one his own, as he understands it.”

A major role in organizing a new unit in the Armed Forces of Ukraine “for the Russians” was played by the commander of the Islamic battalion “Crimea” Isa Akaev , who has been fighting in the Ukrainian army since 2014 and uses radical religious rhetoric. Sergeeva said that a network of diasporas abroad supports “resistance cells” within Russia. She draws an analogy with the nationalist Belarusian Kalinovsky regiment , which fights in the Ukrainian Armed Forces and is supported by Lithuania and Poland . According to Sergeeva, they have a “professional volunteer training center” that will train effective people “including when the confrontation moves to the borders of Russia and its territory.” It is, of course, good that the authorities finally paid attention to the sabotage activities of the Civic Council, but this took a whole year: during this time, the organization managed not only to establish itself and establish itself through dissemination in the media, but also to gather more accomplices and sympathizers. And we need to act quickly and firmly in this field.

About military assistance to the Ukrainian Armed Forces

Germany announced new supplies for the needs of Ukrainian forces. Among other things, it included 20 Marder 1A3 infantry fighting vehicles, 5 ambulances, more than two thousand 155-mm howitzer shells and almost two and a half thousand wiretapping-protected telephones. At the same time , the Bulgarian authorities , according to local media, want to sell the decommissioned BTR-60 and transfer them to the needs of the Ukrainian Armed Forces.

https://rybar.ru/chto-proishodit-v-zone ... -noyabrya/

(Other images at link.)

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To Those Who Had Doubts.
I repeat--only victors create tribunals.

Мирошник: Россия создаст трибунал для украинской власти. Посол МИД Мирошник: России предстоит провести масштабный процесс по осуждению преступлений Украины.

Translation: Miroshnik: Russia will create a tribunal for the Ukrainian authorities. Ambassador of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs Miroshnik: Russia to carry out a large-scale process to condemn the crimes of Ukraine.
Read the whole piece using Google Translate. The work is ongoing for preparation of this Tribunal and it will be a new Nuremberg, and the names will be named. Believe me, there are very many nervous people in the West now.

http://smoothiex12.blogspot.com/2023/11 ... oubts.html

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Project "Volunteer"
colonelcassad
November 22, 20:14

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The Volunteer project ( https://volonter-base.ru/) collects data on Ukrainian war criminals who participated in the punitive operation in Donbass and were involved in the genocide of the Russian population. Examples of scumbags whose identities have been established.

1) Igor Ritsko ( https://volonter-base.ru/content/ricko-igor-iosifovich ), born in 1978. - GUR officer, participant in sabotage and terrorist acts in the LDPR; under his leadership, civilian infrastructure was undermined.
2) Nikita Makeev ( https://volonter-base.ru/content/makeev-nikita ) - an Azov militant who fled to Ukraine from St. Petersburg and is involved in massacres of civilians.
3) Vladimir Polozhentsev ( https://volonter-base.ru/content/polozh ... -ivanovich ), born in 1951. - SBU agent involved in the murder of Givi and Motorola;
4) Anastasia Petriga ( https://volonter-base.ru/content/petrig ... ksandrovna ), born in 1996. - the "Givi" killer, who worked for the Ukrainian special services;
5) Denis Sokur ( https://volonter-base.ru/content/sokur- ... dimirovich ), born in 1992. — commander of the Special Operations Forces "Azov" in the city of Sumy, a convinced Nazi and supporter of clearing the Donbass from Russians.

These crimes have no mitigating circumstances or statute of limitations. Retribution is inevitable and the work continues.


https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/8781848.html

Google Translator

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Two Interesting Reads: AFU Commander Interview, and a New Polish Book

SIMPLICIUS THE THINKER
NOV 22, 2023

There’s a couple very interesting reports that made it through the transom this week which I couldn’t fit into the last writeup as they’re a bit adjacent to main developments. But nevertheless, they offer some fascinating views on the Ukrainian conflict, particularly some of the details of its origins.

The first was another interview with a company commander, Nikolai Melnik—callsign ‘Fritz’, and wait til you hear why—of Ukraine’s now-storied 47th brigade by Censor. He lost his leg in the fighting but gives a detailed account of the beginnings of the AFU’s grand summer counteroffensive, with many interesting tidbits anent Western equipment, training, etc.

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Presumably a picture of his company, or part of it.

The first interesting note was that the training was ironically too long, in his estimation. He states that they began as a recon battalion, then an assault regiment, then a mechanized brigade, and each transition was heralded by grueling stretches of new training programs. While this may sound good on paper, he believes it exhausted and burned the men out:

You see, most people "burned out", and you just forced them to find fire in themselves again. Constant communication, constant explanations of why this is happening. Please understand: first you are an assault regiment and learn how to storm houses. Then they say: you are a mechanized brigade, and they give you MaxxPro, which you see for the first time in your life. They give you rocket-propelled grenades, I think they're MK-13s, and you don't know how to put them on. And then they take everything away from you, and they give you a Bradley, but you also have to go to school on them.

In other words, three training processes actually took place, and people completed three KMBS. Of course, they"burned out".


Next he goes into a description of the M2 Bradley—if you recall, the ‘elite’ 47th was the only brigade of the offensive-designated corps to be granted the privilege of operating the revered Bradley fighting vehicles. This extract has made the rounds on the pro-UA commentariat as it praises the hallowed NATO equipment and philosophies as being so superior to the backwards Soviet one. Tasteless as it may be for these young upstarts to so gratuitously spit on and backbite their Soviet legacy, it does offer some interesting insights, at least insofar as their perceptions of the differences:

- Is Bradley a really reliable car? What impression did it make on you?

- The Americans have a completely different approach to training, not the Soviet one. How does the Ukrainian army train on BMPs?

"Kids, here's an infantry fighting vehicle, but we're not going to start it because there's no diesel. And here is a gun, but we won't shoot it because there are no bullets. And in general, don't touch anything with your hands, because it will fall apart. We'd better practice the landing, and that's it."

That is, in fact, the soldier knows how to land from an "infantry war grave" (because BMP-2 is a war grave), and that's it. That's how the training process works in our army. And in the American army: "Here's a Bradley. And we never run out of diesel fuel or ammunition. We fired 74 shots a day, and we covered normal kilometers. The Americans were not afraid. On the first day, they explained everything, and on the second day we got on the Bradley. And each of the crews (infantry was trained separately, crews were trained separately) rode five to ten kilometers.

On the first day of driving, I was already doing the backup at night, refueling the vehicles. And they always asked: "Do you want more?" I said: "Yes, I do". We had night shootings, day shootings, and round-the-clock shootings, and we slept in the cars. Again, until we learned, until each mechanic understood what was required of him, until each gunner-operator, each vehicle commander disassembled and reassembled that Bushmaster in seven minutes... I managed it on the eighth try.

Unfortunately, when I failed, I reacted very emotionally, so the American soldiers said: "О! Mykola, f**k you!" But the eighth time I did it, I realized how to do it. Until you learn to do everything on automatic, you're not going anywhere. You don't do the next exercise. Everyone had an instructor by their side, and everyone had an interpreter. It's impossible not to learn how to use modern machines.


Wait, so first he mocks “Soviet” training but then says it was actually the Ukrainian army—i.e. of the post-Soviet variety—where the lackluster training and inadequate supplies predominated. How does that redound to the reputation of the ‘Soviet system’? It’s not Russia or the USSR’s fault you became a failed state after spurning and turning your back on the people that gave you everything you had.

But okay, the Americans had fuel in their Bradleys and allowed them to fire 74 shots. Wowee, NATO training is certainly generously abundant.

He goes on to explain that they were filled with a sense of great confidence and pride in having these Bradleys under them. He doesn’t quite seem to intimate why specifically, but the inferred gist is that simply being around the ‘Americans’ and their smiley, oorah faux-confidence filled the Ukrainians with a contagious sense of invincibility. It was more the psychological effect of feeling like America has your back, the sterling American-made machines, fresh from the democratic forge-fires of the Pennsylvania steel plants and freedom-infused Texaco fuel. It was all a sort of heady whirligig of patriotism and puissance and that old-time grainy newsreel, squeaky-Gramophone-jazz Americana glory, that was like a fuzzy fur-coat of comfort about the sagging, bedraggled shoulders of these mentally traumatized Ukrainian fleischsoldaten.

It may sound tongue-in-cheek, and hammed up a bit, but read it for yourself—this is really the tragic essence of it all; they fell for the hype. It’s readily apparent from the photo in that section, which depicts the shopworn Ukrainians giddily sluicing their hand-me-down Bradleys with American chaperons cackling at their backs—glad it’s not them to drive these deathtraps into the maw—with the caption that seems to suggest: “Look ma! These civilized American ubermenschen actually wash their cars after each round. This is nothing like those Suvok orcs! We’re definitely winning this war now!”


This is sadism of an extreme form. It’s bathetic burlesque, no different than those photos of the first McDonalds opening up in Moscow in 1990.

But you thought that was bad? How’s this for psychological manipulation and gaslighting:

We often spent the night on those towers, and he was explaining to me for the twentieth time how to use the Bradley correctly. Again, there were people who had fought in the Gulf, and they explained how they countered tanks there. It was all very interesting. Basically, I tortured everyone very hard. I had Chris next to me, who is now dead... He spoke very good English, and the two of us were constantly beating the Americans to understand everything. I think the problem with several companies of the brigade, the officers of the brigade, was that instead of kicking their instructors' asses, they went to bed. That's my opinion.

Oh suuure. So the Americans glutted them on stories of Bradleys heroically wiping out Saddam’s tank armies in the Persian Gulf. “You go give those Russkies hell, soldier. These here machines took out legions of Saddam’s iron horses, exactly the same as you’ll face in Rabotino, no doubt!”

This isn’t the Gulf War, jack. And for the record, Saddam didn’t even have Russian tanks. He had Assad Babils which were Russian tank knock-offs produced in Iraq with completely inferior steel and other components.

Barring all that, he goes on to convincingly justify the fact that the 47th did appear very well prepared. Every single aspect of the operation was ironed out, every squad and platoon leader met repeatedly with the company commanders to hash it all out. Every officer and NCO knew their exact chain of command and how it would pass in the event of losses. The 47th was moved to forward positions in southern Zaporozhye in mid-May and began to coordinate and plan for that fateful early June breach.

But when the starting gun sounded there were immediate problems. Our intrepid commander reports that right away his battalion was three hours late to the opening assault, meant to be highly coordinated:

- When was the first assault you went on? What was your first experience?

- The first experience was that we were late for the assault... According to the plan, we were supposed to assault right after the 3rd battalion. But because of the failures in planning, we were, to put it mildly, three hours late, so, of course, we could not help. It was already morning, and it was very difficult to fight the Russians during the day because of their superiority in artillery, aviation, and UAVs.


We can’t knock them too harshly for that, recall in Russia’s own recent tough Avdeevka assaults, correspondent Filatov likewise reported precisely a three hour delay to one of the main groups which completely clustered the entire opening operation. Why it’s so difficult to get multiple formations to attack in coordinated fashion, it’s hard to say—but the best on both sides are clearly experiencing it.

Melnik goes on to describe how he got badly injured, losing his legs in the opening assault. First a heavy caliber bullet tore one leg apart, and apparently, as he fell back from the hit, he landed his other leg on a landmine. The interesting insight comes from his description of the mine density:

- How did you get blown up, what was it like?

- How... We called the Bradley, which was supposed to evacuate the first wounded. I saw that it was about to drive across the minefield, jumped out of the landing and started waving my hands where to go. I heard shots, saw my leg fly off, was surprised... Most likely, it was a large-caliber machine gun, because there were tanks on the enemy's Real position, and they were working.

I started jumping on my left leg, stepped on an anti-personnel mine, and fell on my back. Apparently, the "petal" worked, because during the period when we captured and repelled the first attack, there was a massive remote mining. Every ten meters in the sky there was an explosion, explosion, explosion... The sky turned pitch-black, I've never seen anything like it in movies.

The detonation went off, and I turned over on my stomach. Something also went off under my chest, and I was thrown again. I have good armor, so the blast wave went through my arms. After all these explosions, I fell down, lying down and looking around: my hands were burned. I realize that I can't do anything for myself now. But my friend Piro was next to me, and I called out, "Piro, help!" Piro ran across the minefield to save me. And he did. In a minute or two, he put four tourniquets on me, somehow tied my leg with paracord and pulled me out.


Woah.

This is the most visceral confirmation of Russia’s remote mining capabilities we’ve yet seen. At first some had doubted Russia’s mining diligence, particularly leading up to the offensive. Then it softened to “well they mine, but the backwards Russkies just have a few drunks throw some old Soviet TM-62s here and there in the field…they’re probably expired anyway…”

But this is something else. He relates that the entire sky was blackened by an apocalyptic storm of bursting remote-mine munitions, showering the battlefield with leg-chewing, tank-tread-gnawing, glacis-spalling death. For those wiping their eyes and balking at the description, this lurid reminder from the very battle may humble you.

The next part has gotten the most traction on the Russian side, as it reveals the critical linchpin of the entire plan for the grand counteroffensive:

- Obviously, the Russians in this area were preparing for assaults. They were not afraid of the Leopards and did not run away as expected.

- The entire plan for the big counteroffensive was based on simple things: a Muscovite sees a Bradley, a Leopard, and runs away. That was it. "Guys, you're going to unwind them there!"

But the Bradley has no active defense! "Don't piss off! It's good enough as it is." And the tankers had never fired from the Leopard! "Don't piss me off, they worked on T-72s!"


So, basically the whole purpose of the counteroffensive was to thrust a phalanx of scary topshelf NATO armor at the Russkies and hope they ran away in terror, in their inferior Soviet rustbuckets. Well, we all know how that went down.

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Undoubtedly to the tune of Flight of the Valkyries, the almighty NATO steel fleet descended on those Russkie drunks, but instead met an impregnable wall.

Admittedly, Russia too learned this lesson the hard way in the opening of the war. It seems both sides needed to be taught that ‘fear’ doesn’t quite work the same way as in the movies. Russia had intended to descend on Kiev with its mighty tank armies and scare Zelensky out of his pants. Well, credit to both armies—neither is much fit for running.

Melnik goes on to relate another incident, which is interesting to read and does show fairly good initiative and on-the-fly coordination in the 47th. It does put things in perspective, as one must recall as unfathomable as the losses they took were, the AFU did manage to carve out quite a wedge into Russian lines on the Rabotino axis. Of course, ultimately they never even made it to the first Surovikin line, let alone past it.

But we turn back to the Bradley, which he again praises:

- And the Bradley...

- ...Bradley withstood everything. The shell hit the starboard side, and the track was damaged. The armor withstood the debris, but the shock wave tore the wiring in the vehicle... The only time the Bradley failed to withstand the attack was when helicopters were working, a week later. A Ka-52 hit the vehicles, and one Bradley detonated. But there are cases when they did not detonate, when they withstood such strikes. In principle, this is a very reliable vehicle. This is not a BMP-2, where the entire crew dies, no. "The Bradley can be hit, but the crew survives. And the engine is always running. The mechanic-driver wakes up from the concussion, the engine is still running, and we continue driving.

Well, that doesn’t sound too enticing. Driver regaining his consciousness to continue driving? Well, all right.

But as to the armor. Look, let’s be frank here. A lot of comparison is made between the Bradley and its much maligned BMP-2 counterpart. The fact is this: the BMP-2 is 14 tons. The Bradley is 28 tons. They are not even in the same weight class and are only counted in the same category by some vague vagary of armor classification.

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Bradley next to BMP and T-54.
In fact, the U.S. army’s latest Bradley upgrades bring it to over 33 tons. For reference, the Russian T-62 is 37 tons, and T-72 is 41t. So the Bradley is damn-near the same weight as Russia’s main battle tanks—you would think it should be able to soak up some bloody damage.

Of course when you have a vehicle literally twice the size as another, it’s going to have much heavier armor and other accoutrements that give it certain positive attributes or advantages. But in these comparisons the distinct disadvantages are always missed.

In particular, Russian light armor vehicles were meant to be sleek and mobile, with low profiles. The Bradley may be built like a truck and can take some punishment, but it also attracts much more punishment on account of its far larger profile. Russian Ka-52 pilots regularly remarked on how easy the Bradleys were to spot and hit from afar due to their bulky two-story profile. The BMP-2 is a thin, slithering snake in the grass. It often goes by completely undetected by distant ATGM operators, helicopters, etc. And the BMP-3 is superior to the Bradley in almost every imaginable way including armor, anyway—all while still being lighter and faster with a far better power-to-weight ratio, and much more firepower to boot.

But does that mean the Bradley is a bad vehicle? Of course not. It has some great characteristics. Let’s be real—almost no vehicle in this war is outright terrible—well, maybe the AMX-10. But to deny that NATO is capable of making top notch gear is to ignore the rich European war history, France, England, and co. These guys know what they’re doing, they don’t make outright “junk.”

The Bradley, Marder, CV-90, etc., can all be amazing vehicles. But just as I’m giving credit to them, the other side has to stop blanketly deriding Russian gear as inferior when it’s clearly proven to simply have asymmetric differences. As I said, the Bradley has great accuracy and can soak up damage. But the BMPs have greater mobility, far stealthier profiles, and have more firepower, though it’s less accurate. They’re pros and cons, but to simply say Bradley is better because it tanked a few ATGM hits is nonsense because the BMP may have never even been targeted in that scenario due to its lower visibility. Plus, there’s a video out there showing crewmen losing their legs in the back of a Bradley after it hit a mine, so its armor isn’t exactly impenetrable.

Anyway, he compares to BMP-2 only because that’s the best gear Ukraine has. I’d likely choose a Bradley over a BMP-2 myself. But a BMP-3 is a whole ‘nother story—I’ll take that anyday over the Bradley.

Moving on, this next bit gives an interesting look at the coordination levels of the top AFU brigades:

You know, the command and control system in the 47th was so good that I could see where each of my vehicles was on my tablet. This helped in management, you understood who was where. The brigadier understood who was where, and the commander understood. The only thing they did not understand was what was really happening on the battlefield. And the situation was quite simple: ATGMs in every position. The Russians knew our routes of advance, and everything was flying along these routes - 152s, 120s, and Grads... And so you are moving, and where are you going to maneuver? Only back and forth, because everything else is mined. And we are the ones who did it...

He goes on to describe his withering recovery, how he lost his leg due to doctors not even being able to treat it properly due to the flood of wounded which paralyzed emergency centers. But if that wasn’t bad enough, officers are already calling him to prepare for the next offensive:

Once an officer I knew called me and said: "Well, you go ahead and recover. There will be a counteroffensive next year, too." And I told him: "I don't have enough legs for the next counteroffensive."

- "We have to reach Crimea!"

- "I don't mind, but I really don't have enough limbs..." It's not a good idea to storm the Russians' prepared positions once again. I really hope that after what happened, they drew conclusions... An offensive always means losses. Still, I would like to see better interaction between the branches of the armed forces, to have aviation, to not be afraid of helicopters, to have the means to counter them. I really wish there were personnel conclusions.

- Do you still want to return to the army? What do you think about it?

- I don't think there is a single person who wants to go back to the army. But... We all want to continue to defend Ukraine. Are you asking if I want to go back to the army? No, I don't. Not at all. I don't get enough sleep there. Will I return to defend Ukraine? Yes, I will. In what condition, in what position - I'm not ready to answer. Because, apparently, it will not be possible to storm the landings.


Oh, and, to end he’s asked why his callsign is ‘Fritz’. I suppose the answer was to be expected:

- Why do you have the call sign Fritz?

- Oh... My friend Halychanyn first called me Fritz in 2016. And it stuck. I have never hidden the fact that I am half German. You know, I have a family of "anti-Soviet" people: some were in the Hitler Youth, others in the UPA. And they all met in Siberia, and my mother was born from this love. That's how it happened. In principle, I am quite boring and methodical when it comes to doing something. I think I live up to my pseudonym somewhere.


And you wonder why the Russkies call them ‘Wehrmacht’ on the radios.

(Much more at link, do have a look.)

https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/two ... -commander
"There is great chaos under heaven; the situation is excellent."

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