August 20, 2025 Hour: 10:24 am
The general elections of August 17, 2025, in Bolivia cannot be understood as an isolated event, but rather as the crystallization of a process of deep political polarization that has been brewing since the institutional crisis of 2019.
The election symbolizes a decisive crossroads for the country, which must choose between giving continuity to a project that has made a significant difference in social and economic terms, or shifting towards a right wing that proposes to dismantle much of the progress achieved over the last two decades.
Historical Context: The 2019 Crisis and its Aftermath
The crisis that triggered Evo Morales’s resignation in 2019 was a turning point with multiple facets. Morales and his then vice president, Alvaro Garcia Linera, made the difficult decision to leave power amid strong mobilizations and allegations of electoral fraud, something that generated an unprecedented institutional vacuum.
The Bolivian constitution establishes a clear line of presidential succession: first the president of the Senate and, failing that, the president of the Chamber of Deputies. Both had resigned, which allowed Jeanine Áñez, the second vice president of the Senate, to assume the interim presidency.
Her government was marked by a wave of violent repression against social mobilizations, which included episodes that international human rights organizations classified as massacres.
The institutional violence and the questioned legitimacy of this period generated an environment of deep political and social division in the country.
By 2020, Bolivia returned to the democratic path with the election of Luis Arce, candidate of the Movement Towards Socialism (MAS). His arrival was a hope for a majority that longed for stability and institutional recovery.
Arce achieved a resounding victory in the first round, demonstrating that the political project led by Evo Morales still retained solid popular support, especially in the defense of social policies and economic sovereignty.
From a Fragmented MAS to the Emergence of the Right
Although initially Luis Arce and Evo Morales walked together, over time the relationship deteriorated.
Arce showed a growing desire to politically separate himself from the former president and consolidate his own figure within the MAS, which generated an internal fracture that significantly weakened the leftist party. This division was key to its historic defeat in the first round of 2025.
The electoral result of August 17 surprised even the most optimistic analysts on the right. The MAS, which had dominated Bolivian politics for more than a decade, suffered the worst defeat in its history by obtaining just 3.2% of the votes with its candidate Eduardo del Castillo.
For the first time since 2005, the left did not even manage to make it to a second round; an alarming fact that reflects the internal crisis of its leadership and the disconnect with broad sectors of its base.
The Electoral Pulse: High Participation and Null Votes as a Manifestation of Discontent
The elections proceeded normally, under a climate of civility that was highlighted by international observation organizations.
The voter turnout rate was high, which speaks to the mobilization and interest that these elections awaken in Bolivian society.
However, one of the most revealing data points was the prominence of the null vote: 19% of the total, equivalent to more than 1.2 million votes.
This is an unprecedented phenomenon, driven largely by Evo Morales himself, who during the campaign made an explicit call for a null vote.
This percentage not only reflects an intent to punish or a simple rejection of the available candidates, but also the deep frustration and disillusionment of broad social sectors with the current political panorama.
Ultimately, this null vote fragmented the left, weakening the MAS and paving the way for the right to emerge as the only possible alternative in the second round.
The Second-Round Candidates: Two Faces of the Bolivian Right
According to the results, the second round in October will pit two figures from conservative and liberal sectors against each other, but with profiles and proposals that differ substantially.
Rodrigo Paz Pereira: The Moderate Center-Right
Rodrigo Paz Pereira, candidate of the Christian Democratic Party (PDC), leads the race with 32.14% of the votes (more than 1.6 million).
Paz Pereira is the son of former president Jaime Paz Zamora and has a long political career, from his mayoralty in Tarija to his seat in the Senate.
He is recognized for a center-right position with a moderate discourse, based on reconciliation and the fight against corruption.
His proposal is based on a model of “capitalism for all,” aimed at including the informal sector, with a strong rejection of external debt and a plan for economic stabilization.
Paz Pereira promises to carry out constitutional reforms, reduce the bureaucratic apparatus, and privatize deficit-ridden public companies, but with a discourse that seeks to avoid abrupt ruptures to pacify the country.
This candidate has managed to attract sectors disillusioned with both the MAS and the hard right, capitalizing on the desire for change without radicalization.
Jorge “Tuto” Quiroga: The Conservative and Liberal Right
For his part, Jorge Quiroga, of the Liberty and Democracy party, obtained 26.81% of the votes, establishing himself as the other contender for the second round.
A former president between 2001 and 2002, Quiroga is a veteran politician, with a career marked by a frontal stance against the MAS and Evo Morales.
He defines himself as a representative of the conservative liberal right and has championed the “end of the hegemony of 21st-century socialism.”
His proposals are clearly liberal: he proposes eliminating fuel subsidies, cutting the fiscal deficit, and reducing the size of the state.
In terms of governance, he bets on a deep judicial reform and proposes establishing a new Constitution with radical changes.
His campaign highlighted the economic crisis, the deficit in international reserves, and the corruption of the Arce government.
The Challenges of the Second Round: Alliances and Perspectives
With the left fragmented and the MAS absent from the second round, what remains is a dispute between two variants of the right that, although different, share the objective of definitively displacing the popular political project.
The scenario is complex. The so-called “useful vote” and alliances will be decisive in defining the future government.
Former president and businessman Samuel Doria Medina, leader of the National Unity Front, has already announced his support for Paz Pereira, ensuring important backing for the center-right candidacy.
On the opposite side, Quiroga will seek to amalgamate the votes of more conservative and anti-MAS parties to reinforce his base.
The electorate faces a dilemma: vote for the more moderate and conciliatory option proposed by Paz or bet on the continuity of Quiroga’s neoliberal and confrontational discourse. Neither option fully convinces those seeking true change that deepens social justice and economic sovereignty.
Where is Bolivia Headed After a Result That Raises More Questions Than Answers
The historic defeat of the MAS and the absence of any progressive force in the second round reflect not only a conjunctural crisis within the ruling party but also the structural fragility of the leftist project in Bolivia.
The inability to reconcile internal differences and present a united front has cost the popular sectors dearly, who today are forced to choose between two right-wing options that could jeopardize the social advances of recent years.
Bolivia is at a crossroads. Political atomization and the high percentage of null votes evidence a deep disillusionment with the traditional elites and a latent desire to refound national politics from a perspective that truly addresses popular demands.
The second round will be decisive in defining whether Bolivia opts to continue on the path of social inclusion and economic sovereignty or whether it leans towards a model that reinforces neoliberal agendas, often associated with social setbacks.
For the left and social movements, the task is urgent: to rebuild bridges, articulate a renewed and popular project that regains the trust of the citizenry.
Democracy and social justice are at stake, and the country’s political future will depend on the level of mobilization, unity, and capacity for dialogue they manage to build in the coming weeks.
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