Iran

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Re: Iran

Post by blindpig » Fri Jul 04, 2025 2:54 pm

Narrative Shift: Israeli-US Strikes Strengthen Iran's Resolve
Simplicius
Jul 03, 2025

One under-appreciated aspect of the Israeli-Iranian conflict was how it has galvanized the hardliners in Iran, with some believing that it effectively centralized power around the military hawk faction, rather than fomenting discord and disarray as the West had hoped.

The Economist most recently delved into this:

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https://archive.ph/HTzdh

We saw that during the conflict, Grand Ayatollah Khamenei delegated war decisions to an IRGC shura council, allowing them to make all necessary military responses without his immediate oversight.

Now Economist writes how the Israeli—and previous American—strikes actually helped wipe out the ‘moderates’ and install a far hardier class of military commanders:

As the IRGC gains control its elite is being transformed at speed by Israel’s assassinations. Gone are the veteran commanders who for years pursued “strategic patience”, limiting their fire when their totemic leader, Qassem Soleimani, was assassinated in 2020, and holding it when Israel battered their proxies, Hamas and Hizbullah, in 2024. Now a new generation, impatient and more dogmatic, has taken their place and is bent on redeeming national pride. “The maximalist position has been strengthened,” says an academic close to the reformist camp. He claims the decision-makers in place before the war were debating whether to ditch their anti-Israel stance. But “everyone is now a hardliner”.

They even declare that for the first time since the 1979 revolution, the military has gained supremacy over the ‘clerics’, which could explain why Khamenei had notably gone ‘absent’ during the latter half of the brief war.

But in the medium term it could signal that the regime becomes more extreme, not more pragmatic, under the pressure of a devastating military campaign.

What’s more is that Iran’s elites appear to be ‘coalescing’, whereas a year ago there was great infighting and disagreement on the direction of the country vis-a-vis international pressures; now the ‘moderate’ faction is silenced in favor of the bold patriots. This is similar to the natural selection process which took place in the Russian elite circles around the time of the SMO. This was most obviously seen when the Majlis declared its unanimity in closing the Strait of Hormuz, which we’ll get to in a minute.

Most eye-opening was the Economist’s admission that Israel’s strikes on civilian targets had actually served to unite Iranian society. This alone flies in the face of daily narratives we’ve been fed about Iran being in tatters, and that disillusioned citizens are waiting with open arms for Reza Pahlavi to depose the ‘theocratic regime’. One supposes Iranian citizens didn’t particularly enjoy scenes like this one released today for the first time, showing an Israeli strike on central Tehran during last month’s attacks: (Video at link.)

From the article—speaking on Iranian citizens and dissidents:

Early admiration for Israel’s military prowess has turned to outrage as its targets have widened and the death toll has mounted. Scorn for the IRGC’s haplessness has turned to pride at the speed with which it has reconstituted. Iranians who fled the capital are coming back. Those who once championed Israel are now handing over suspected Israeli agents to the police. Female political prisoners, the mothers of executed protesters and exiled Iranian pop stars have all issued calls to rally to Iran’s defence. “It’s backfired on Bibi,” says a former official turned dissident…

The Economist’s sources are convinced that Israeli strikes have made it certain that Iran will now “dash” to get the bomb—and why shouldn’t it?

Just compare Iran’s new Chief of Staff, Major General Mousavi (left), to his predecessor Mohammad Bagheri (right) who was killed in the Israeli strikes:

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“Should the need come for a military response, it will be stronger and more crushing than before.”

— Iran’s new Chief of Staff, Maj. General Mousavi


(Video at link.)

Now it has come to light that the possible real reason for why the US decided to pull the plug on mission Iran so fast was because after the affirming parliamentary vote, Iran did in fact begin loading up ships with naval mines in preparation to close the Strait of Hormuz.

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https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-ea ... 025-07-01/

Summary:

The U.S. was seriously concerned about a potential blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, Reuters reports, citing sources. Following Israel’s first missile strike on June 13, Iran reportedly loaded naval mines onto vessels in the Persian Gulf.

A blockade of this key global shipping route could have dealt a major blow to international trade and driven up energy prices, as roughly 20% of the world’s oil and gas supply passes through the strait.

However, U.S. officials acknowledged it may have been an Iranian bluff.


Sure, we know the prevailing excuse that only 11% of US oil comes through Hormuz, and such a blockade would have affected China and its spheres more. This is a simplistic projection, as secondary effects on the global markets would have still resulted in major repercussions for the US economy via supply chain disruptions, manufacturing cost spikes, massive political pressure and perceived weakness of US’ capabilities as regional enforcer, etc.

M.K. Bhadrakumar corroborates that Iranian elite are ‘hardening’ in their positions:

While diplomats are doing their job, Iran's position hardening like nobody's business after US air strike. Trump badly misjudged Iran's national mood, psyche. Broujerdi a hugely influential politician & veteran diplomat [is] articulating majority opinion in the Majlis.

US seems to factor in collision course/ confrontation/conflict with Iran, having played out all its diplomatic cards. Politico, New York Times report US is holding back supplies of ammo, air defence, etc. for Ukraine as Pentagon stocks are running low & Israel gets priority.


He refers to Iranian MP and member of the National Security Committee Broujerdi who states below that Iran will now enrich uranium to whatever level it sees fit, including 90%: (Video at link.)

Iran has likewise continued to stay defiant against the criminal IAEA, suspending cooperation with them and banning director Rafael Grossi from its nuclear sites. It seems Iran is confident of the deterrence gained by the damage it served upon Israel with its strikes, and is not willing to bow or kneel to further pressure.

Interestingly, there are now unverified reports that claim Israel is secretly urging Russia to intervene:

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-"Israel is holding quiet high-level talks with Russia to pursue a diplomatic solution on Iran and Syria, as the ceasefire with Iran remains in effect," - Israeli Broadcasting Corporation.

Israel has outlined its desire for a status quo where it gets to merely bombard Iran at will, any time it chooses, in order to “enforce” the made up regulations it pretends to impose on Iran; i.e. the same status quo now accepted as normal with regard to Lebanon, Syria, Yemen, and Palestine—where Israel can bomb at its whim.

Just read this stunning new revelation from the Israeli Ma’ariv paper:

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JUST IN:

IAF Dropped leftover Interception munitions on Gaza, It was first voluntary then it became a policy.

During Israel’s 12-day war against Iran, Israeli Air Force pilots returning from intercept missions still carrying unused munitions asked to drop them on Gaza instead of landing fully loaded.

This began as a ‘local initiative’ but quickly became a routine. Pilots dropped leftover bombs in Gaza to ‘support ground forces in Khan Younis and northern Gaza’. Air Force Commander Tomer Bar approved expanding the practice to all squadrons. As a result, Gaza was hit with intensified airstrikes daily, with dozens of jets dropping hundreds of munitions on Palestinians without needing extra deployments. A military official said this strategy boosted the Air Force’s efficiency, saving resources and increasing firepower across multiple fronts.

Source: Hebrew Maariv.


The problem is, each time it does this Iran will likely respond with another round of crushing blows on Israeli cities which will not go over well with the frayed citizenry. (Video at link.)

It will be politically disastrous as the populace will see the government’s “unnecessary” provocations on Iran as greatly endangering them for no tangible benefits.

Where things stand now is Iran—via FM Araghchi—demands some kind of guarantee that any future negotiations would not be used as another ruse to attack Iran, as was just done twice in a row by Trump. But at this point, who can trust the US’ word? (Video at link.)

The US appears to be acting out of a greater sense of desperation to restart talks than Iran, which is in no hurry:

London Times article with Washington dateline, apparently well sourced, says that Witkoff is "frantically" communicating with Iranian officials "through direct and indirect channels" to get talks restarted; the "race is on" to secure a nuclear deal urgently despite Trump's insistence to the contrary; Witkoff can offer sanctions relief as inducement to Iran to negotiate and "signing up to a long term deal to replace" the 2015 JCPOA, which is expiring in October.

Even as of this writing Iranian government planes have reportedly returned from Oman, which signals possible talks with US counterparts. We can only hope that behind Trump’s outward bluster, the US has some sense and is able to compromise toward a broader Mideast deal.



As a corollary, here’s CNN stunned by the latest polls showing the sea change in Democrats’ perceptions of Israel: (Video at link.)

This is a major reason for why Israel is in such dire straits—the next generation of Americans will no longer support Israel’s domination of the US Congress. Israel will have no choice but to come up with inventive new methods or false flags to keep Americans in line, because without the US’ support, Israel will cease to be as a nation in the Middle East.

But Israeli hardliners know this, and it’s one of the reasons they have chosen to destroy or break up Iran now, before it’s too late.

https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/nar ... us-strikes

******

From Cassad's Telegram account:

Colonelcassad
The Israeli newspaper Haaretz revealed details of the repulse of the Iranian attacks and their consequences:

1. Colossal expenditures on missile defense

- Israel and the United States launched ~200 interceptors (Arrow/THAAD) worth 5 billion shekels (≈1.35 billion) in one night.
- The United States used 8 times more THAAD missiles in 12 days of fighting with Iran than it produced in the entire 2025 (12 units).

2. Gaps in defense

- Dozens of missile defense system failures , including undisclosed damage to facilities.
- Iran used cluster warheads that caused destruction within a 600-meter radius (broken glass, collapsed walls).

3. Secret damage

- American experts confirmed hits on closed facilities .
- The total damage is estimated at 10 billion shekels (≈2.7 billion).

4. US Logistics Crisis

- Emergency THAAD Deliveries to Israel Before Attack .
- 2026 Plan: 32 Missiles (13 million/unit) - Stockpile Replenishment Will Take Years .

https://t.me/voiceofyemen/6899 - zinc

It is worth remembering that THAAD was not delivered to Ukraine. The missile consumption for the Patriot SAM system during the 12 days of war is currently unknown.

https://t.me/s/boris_rozhin

Google Translator

******

Iran Reopened Most of Its Airspace

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(Archive). Photo: EFE.

July 4, 2025 Hour: 3:06 am


The Islamic Republic of Iran has reopened nearly its entire airspace, including international flights to the capital city, Tehran, after closing it on June 13 due to the 12-day war with Israel.


“The airports of Mehrabad and Imam Khomeini (Tehran), along with airports in the north, east, west, and south of the country, have resumed operations,” the state news agency IRNA reported.

International and domestic flights will operate between 5:00 a.m. local time (1:30 GMT) and 6:00 p.m. (14:30 GMT). The exceptions are the airports in Tabriz (northwest) and Isfahan (center), which remain closed after suffering damage from Israeli attacks.

Iran closed its airspace on June 13 when Netanyahu’s Zionist regime launched a military offensive against Iran, sparking a war that lasted 12 days and ended with a ceasefire announced by U.S. President Donald Trump. At least 935 people have reportedly died in the conflict, including 38 children in Iran and 28 in Israel.



https://www.telesurenglish.net/iran-reo ... -airspace/
"There is great chaos under heaven; the situation is excellent."

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Re: Iran

Post by blindpig » Sat Jul 05, 2025 5:20 pm

Much is made of the US military base-encirclement of Iran and the threat it poses but considerably less attention is paid to Iran's Ring of Fire that threatens to engulf Washington and Tel Aviv
vanessa beeley and UK Column
Jul 05, 2025

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Did Iran Create or Cooperate with Regional Resistance?
Resistance to the Imperialist project in the West Asia (Middle East) region has deep historical and cultural roots for the people of the region. It was never exclusive to any religion; it was linked to an Arab identity and civilisation. The modern-day dominance of an Islamic Resistance is a phenomenon that is relatively recent and should not be seen through a sectarian lens, as it remains inclusive of all sects and ideologies. Religion and culture have historically encouraged a path to justice, defence of territorial integrity, regional identity, and human dignity. An early example is Queen Zenobia of Palmyra, Syria, who defied Roman occupation and resisted until her death.

As empires and social structure in the region evolved, the resistance evolved into a structure of state-led and popular movements. Various grassroots groups emerged, especially in Palestine, Syria, Lebanon, and Iraq. Initially, this was in response to the Sykes-Picot generation of British and French colonialism, and later to American and British-Zionist occupations. Non-state Resistance actors also grew out of the inability of some Arab nations to wage direct wars with the Zionist occupation forces for a multitude of reasons. The 1979 Islamic Revolution in Iran changed the status quo by legitimising resistance ideology and supporting these factions, enabling them to evolve and fortify their military capability.

In 1936, the Great Palestinian Revolt against British Mandate rule was brutally crushed. This paved the way for the 1948 Nakba, the ethnic cleansing of the Palestinians by British-trained Haganah terrorist forces. This led to the establishment of the so-called State of Israel on Palestinian land.

After Arab armies were unable to liberate Palestine in 1948, Palestinians and Arabs launched a number of Resistance initiatives which were on both sides of the political spectrum, both left-and right-wing. The most notable was Fatah, which began armed operations from Lebanon and Jordan in 1965. Others soon followed: the Popular Front, the Democratic Front, and the People’s Party, and later Islamic Jihad, Hamas, and various popular committees.

After Israel’s 1978 invasion of South Lebanon, new Lebanese resistance groups formed. These included the Lebanese National Resistance Front—a leftist coalition formed in 1982, led by the Lebanese Communist Party and the Organization for Communist Action—and the Shiite Amal Movement, founded in 1974. Hezbollah later emerged in the 1980s in response to the Zionist invasion of Lebanon in 1982 and the heinous Zionist-orchestrated massacre of Sabra and Shatila. The Zionists were driven out of Lebanese land by Hezbollah in 2000 and Hezbollah became the de facto political and military authority in the south. Hezbollah’s deployment was backed by Syria which, at the time, controlled politics and security in Lebanon with around 15,000 troops on the ground.

The 1979 Iranian Revolution led to Iran adopting a firm ideological stance against Western imperialism and proxy occupation forces in the region. As a result, Iran began supporting indigenous resistance movements, both directly and indirectly. These groups were never seen as ‘proxies’, but as allies, and support was not based on sect, but on their opposition to occupation. Iran supported the Palestinian Sunni Muslim Resistance factions without hesitation based on these principles.

The Resistance movements were formed organically in response to the brutality and tyranny of the occupying forces backed by the Western Imperialist bloc. Iran did not create them as some form of outreach for Iranian expansionism, as is often claimed by Western ‘think tanks’ and regimes.

Shared interests united the state and non-state actors across the region. This is a natural reaction to Western-dominated hegemony, resource piracy, and ethnic supremacy. These Resistance factions became key partners in what became to be known as the ‘Ring of Fire’, a defensive strategy for Iran and its allies, not a network of subordinates. Even in Iraq, resistance groups only emerged after the two US-led Gulf Wars, not before, when the Iraqi Saddam Hussein regime was persecuting Shia communities and going to war against Iran. These resistance groups further strengthened when battling Western-proxy ISIS, in Iraq, after the start of the regime change war against Syria in 2011.

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Meeting the legendary Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis in Iraq, November 2017. Photo Credit: Vanessa Beeley.

In November 2017, the author met with the former leader of the Iraqi Popular Mobilisation Forces (PMF), Abu Mahdi al-Mohandes, in Iraq, with a media delegation. In 2020, this visionary, an engineer by trade and a legendary commander, was assassinated alongside IRGC Commander Qassem Soleimani. It was a first step, by Donald Trump, to weaken Iran. During the meeting, al-Mohandes told us:

The US did not supply a single bullet to fight ISIS.

The US tanks had no ammunition. There were 12 Apache helicopters, whose only mission was to evacuate US diplomats from the green zone in the event of ISIS succeeding in entering Baghdad.

When the Sinjar Mountain massacre and abduction of thousands of Yazidi men took place in August 2014, the US planes did nothing against ISIS. Only Iran, according to Al Mohandes, stepped up and prevented an even greater bloodbath, allowing Hashed (PMF) forces to liberate 300,000 Yazidis.


This is a perfect example of why the Resistance is necessary: to prevent slaughter, occupation, and persecution by Western proxy forces in the region, Israel included.

Following are the major resistance movements and armed factions allied with Iran.

Lebanon
While the Amal Movement maintains a trained military wing and strong ties with Iran, Hezbollah stands as the most powerful and committed ally. Initially backed by Syria, Iran later took the lead in providing substantial financial, military, and political support, enabling Hezbollah to develop into a professional military force.

Hezbollah comprises two main branches: a political wing and a military wing. The political wing handles strategic direction, political engagement, and manages educational, healthcare, and social institutions to serve ALL Lebanese communities, regardless of sect or political affiliation. Hezbollah participates in elections, holds parliamentary seats, and plays an influential role in Lebanese politics. This, despite best efforts by the US and Israel to remove Hezbollah from the political scene in Lebanon.

The military wing is estimated to have over 100,000 fighters, potentially up to 150,000, according to some sources. It has a number of regional units. According to Zionist and Western think-tank research, Lebanon hosts five key regional units.

Nasr Unit: Operates in southern Lebanon, from the Israeli border to the Litani River.

Badr Unit: Covers the area from north of the Litani to Sidon.

Aziz Unit: Operates from southeastern Lebanon to western Beqaa.

Haider Unit: Active in central Beqaa, Baalbek, and Hermel.

Unnamed Unit: Located in Beirut’s southern suburbs.

Regional Operatives: Oversee theaters such as Syria and Palestine—Israel labels this ‘Unit 133’.

Functionally, Hezbollah’s structure includes:

Rocket Unit: Focused on improving missile accuracy.

Anti-Armor Unit: Specialises in destroying Israeli tanks; its effectiveness was notable during the 2006 war.

Artillery Unit: Handles mortars, self-propelled guns, and rocket launchers to support infantry operations.

Air Force Unit: Operates reconnaissance and combat drones.

Air Defence Unit: Defends Lebanese airspace against Israeli aircraft; a member shot down an Israeli ‘Yasur’ helicopter in 2006.

Armoured and Tank Unit: Formed during the regime change war against Syria, this unit saw extensive combat, from Qusayr to the Qalamoun battles.

Intervention and Special Forces – Radwan Unit: Known for elite offensive capabilities; key in the Syria war and tasked with capturing northern Israel in any future conflict.

Abbas Brigades: Similar in function to Radwan, specialising in offensive ground combat.

Naval Unit: Equipped with anti-ship missiles, speedboats, mini-submarines, and naval commandos. Credited with striking three Israeli naval vessels in 2006.

Cyber Unit: Engages in electronic warfare and cyber operations, often blamed for attacks on Israeli infrastructure.

Security Unit: Oversees internal and external intelligence and protects personnel and sites.

Training Unit: Manages educational curricula and military camps.

Operations Unit: Runs central and regional command centres. Equivalent to CENTCOM.

Planning and Research Unit: Develops strategic plans and studies.

Finance Unit: Manages military finances.

Logistics and Supply Unit: Provides vehicles, weapons, and logistical support in both war and peace.

Engineering Unit: Specialises in explosives, landmines, and ambushes—famous for the Al-Otaybah ambush.

Communications Unit: Runs Hezbollah’s wired and wireless network; its dismantling triggered the May 7 conflict with the Lebanese Government in 2008.

Combat Medical Unit: Provides frontline medical care.

War Media Unit: Handles media and psychological warfare and archives Hezbollah’s communications output.

Palestine
Palestinian resistance factions differ in ideology and strategy. Some, like Hamas and Islamic Jihad, adopt Islamic frameworks, while others, such as the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine (PFLP), follow Marxist-leftist doctrines. Most of the larger groups emphasise armed resistance, whereas factions like Fatah, particularly after the Oslo Accords, shifted toward political negotiation, eventually becoming adversarial to the resistance and taking administrative control of the West Bank, effectively an ally of the Zionist regime.

Despite longstanding internal divisions, Palestinian factions succeeded in forming a Joint Operations Room in 2006, which expanded by 2018 to include multiple factions under the name Joint Room of Palestinian Resistance Factions'. The iconic Commander Yahya Sinwar described it as "the nucleus of a liberation army and a model for unified action". Its military effectiveness became most evident following the October 7, 2023 operation.

Hamas
Hamas was founded in 1987 during the First Intifada. It is considered the most influential faction committed to armed resistance against Israel. Its military wing, the Izz al-Din al-Qassam Brigades, is among the most powerful in Palestine. Hamas is based primarily in Gaza but maintains a presence in the West Bank, especially in the beleaguered refugee camps, where its popularity has soared since October 7th.

On 7 October 2023, Hamas launched the Al-Aqsa Flood operation, a major military assault that stunned Israel and prompted responses from other factions and regional fronts. Structurally, Hamas resembles Hezbollah, featuring both political and military wings—though with smaller numbers and lighter armament. In response to the claims that ‘Israel created Hamas’, which is a reductionist argument at best and undermines the agency of Palestinian resistance at worst, there are a number of online articles and interviews available to challenge this popular narrative.

The Palestinian resistance arsenal ranges from short-range Qassam rockets (15 km) to R-160 (160 km) and Ayyash (250 km), which are originally Syrian-made and now locally produced. Hamas also possesses anti-tank guided weapons like the Kornet, Yasin rocket, Konkurs, North Korean Fagot (Phoenix), and Sagger missiles. It also has anti-aircraft systems (e.g., SAM-7) and reconnaissance and combat drones (e.g., Zouari drones).

Hamas maintains over 50,000 fighters, organized into regional brigades and battalions, each led by a local commander:

North Gaza Brigade: 7 combat battalions, including an elite unit

Gaza Brigade: 7 combat battalions (merged sectors)

Central Brigade: 5 combat battalions, with elite units

Khan Younis Brigade: 6 combat battalions, including elite units

Rafah Brigade: 5 battalions, including elite units

Each brigade includes specialised units:

Commando (Elite) Unit: Highly trained for special operations, supported by intelligence and numbering around 5,000 fighters.

Anti-Armor Unit: Targets Israeli tanks and APCs using RPG-7, Kornet, Yasin-105, and Shuwaz series IEDs. Credited with destroying Merkava tanks and Namer vehicles.

Signals Unit: Manages all communication—wired and wireless—and built a secure wired network for battlefield and tunnel use. This network was a target in Israel's failed Operation Sword's Edge, during which commander Nour al-Din Baraka was martyred.

Other specialised units include:

Engineering

Air Defence

Artillery

Snipers

Martyrdom Operations

Support

Recruitment and Morale

Manufacturing

Ambush

Rocket

Cyber

Drone Warfare

In 2014, Hamas revealed its naval commando (frogmen) unit during the Gaza conflict. In 2016, it announced a ‘Shadow Unit’ responsible for guarding captured enemy soldiers. During the 2023 Al-Aqsa Flood operation, it unveiled the ‘Falcon Squadron’ of its airborne elite military brigade.

Islamic Jihad
Founded in October 1981, Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) emerged from the same ideological roots as Hamas, but it evolved independently. It remains committed to armed struggle as the sole path to liberation. Its military wing, the Al-Quds Brigades, operates primarily in Gaza, but also maintains an active presence in the West Bank, especially in areas like Jenin and Hebron.

The Al-Quds Brigades are among the largest and most developed military factions in Palestine. They have advanced their domestically produced weapons systems, including:

Short-range rockets: Quds, Fajr, and Buraq variants with ranges up to 120 km

Reconnaissance and attack drones: notably the Jenin model

Multiple rocket launchers and rapid-fire systems

The group's operations span Gaza, the West Bank, parts of Israel, and even southern Lebanon. It commands an estimated 30,000 fighters, distributed across its various operational areas.

Al-Aqsa Martyrs Brigades
Although Fatah officially abandoned armed resistance, especially after Mahmoud Abbas took leadership and dissolved its military wing, the Al-Aqsa Martyrs Brigades re-emerged in 2021. This followed the Battle of Sword of Jerusalem and tensions in Sheikh Jarrah, marking a resurgence after 16 years of demilitarisation in the West Bank.

The revitalised brigades absorbed several affiliated groups, including:

Nidal al-Amoudi Brigade

Army of the Storm

Martyr Ayman Judeh Group

Abdul Qader al-Husseini Battalions

They have since played a notable role in Gaza-based military confrontations.

Other Armed Factions Aligned with Iran or Independent
Several other groups remain active in Palestine, maintaining distinct ideological and military structures. These include:

Popular Resistance Committees; armed wing: Al-Nasser Salah al-Din Brigades

Democratic Front for the Liberation of Palestine; military wing: National Resistance Brigades

Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine; military wing: Abu Ali Mustafa Brigades

PFLP – General Command; military wing: Jihad Jibril Brigades

Palestinian Freedom Movement; military wing: Ansar Brigades

Palestinian Mujahideen Movement (a Fatah offshoot); military wing: Mujahideen Brigades

Yemen
The Yemeni Army and Popular Committees
The official Yemeni Army consists of four main branches: Ground Forces, Air and Air Defence Forces, Naval and Coastal Defence Forces, and Border Guard Forces, in addition to Strategic Reserve Forces, which include Special Operations, Presidential Guard, and Missile Brigades. The total personnel is estimated at around 80,000. Its military assets include:

11 mechanized infantry brigades

14 armoured brigades

10 air defence brigades

2 naval brigades

6 missile and artillery brigades

8 aviation brigades

30 infantry brigades

Along with 3 naval bases, air police brigades, and radar units

In early 2015, the Saudi-led coalition, supported by the US, UAE, and other Arab and Western nations, launched a war on Yemen under the name ‘Operation Decisive Storm’. The Yemeni Army, alongside the Popular Committees which are tribal militias, historically aligned with the army against foreign intervention, resisted this campaign. Brigadier General Yahya Saree serves as the official spokesperson of the Yemeni Armed Forces.

Ansar Allah: Known in Western Media as the ‘Houthis’
The story of Ansar Allah is long and shaped by six wars with President Ali Abdullah Saleh’s forces in Yemen. Ansar Allah have been historically opposed to Saudi, US, Western, and Israeli influence. They later engaged in one of the most brutal modern wars against the Saudi-led coalition, which aimed to dismantle the movement. Instead, Ansar Allah turned adversity, blockades and immense hardship into momentum. Their support base expanded, their military industry developed, and their ideological commitment hardened, earning them a reputation as barefoot fighters defeating a coalition of regional powers.

You can read a number of articles about the unlawful war of aggression against the Yemeni people here, here, here, and here. An excellent book by Dr. Isa Blumi called Destroying Yemen is also recommended.

Structurally, Ansar Allah resembles Hezbollah but with distinct local adaptations. They have a full political wing and a military apparatus organised into brigades and specialised combat units. This foundation positions them as potential future rulers of Yemen, a prospect that alarms Gulf, Zionist and Western powers. Though exact numbers are unknown, estimates suggest a minimum of 500,000 fighters, many of whom are highly trained. Local footage shows commando forces modelled on Hezbollah’s Radwan Unit.

Their most significant capability is their missile arsenal and indigenous missile development program. These include cruise, ballistic, and hypersonic systems. Ranges vary from the 70 km Tochka to the Toufan, which reaches 2,000 km with an 800 kg warhead. The latter was used against Israel, successfully evading the multiple layers of US and Israeli air defences. Trump recently let it slip that Yemen produced its own missiles, which contradicts the oft-repeated line that Yemen is an Iranian ‘proxy’ dependent upon Iran for its missile stocks.

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Ansar Allah also deploy a wide range of drones, from reconnaissance to attack and loitering munitions. The Samad series has operational ranges from 150 to 2,500 km.

Their naval forces are among their most strategic assets. They possess fast attack boats such as Asif, Malah, and Nadheer. These are capable of launching 107 mm Katyusha rockets and carrying medium to light weapons, with some equipped with air defence systems. They also operate extremely effective unmanned surface vehicle (USV) boats for combat and maritime surveillance.

The group has publicly declared possession of various naval mines, including the Masjour, Thaqib, Karrar, and Mujahid types. These underwater explosives are designed to damage or destroy surface vessels or submarines. Each model varies in activation method and depth tolerance.

Ansar Allah also possess Rubezh missiles, a Russian-made coastal defence system that uses Kh-35UI anti-ship missiles with a 260 km range. These sea-skimming missiles fly close to the water surface to evade radar, carrying a 145 kg high-explosive warhead designed to penetrate a ship's hull before detonating.

The group has also developed its own anti-ship missiles, such as Tankeel, Hatim, Faleq, and Sayyad; they are cruise missiles guided by radar or infrared seekers with ranges between 200–400 km, closely resembling Iranian designs. Additionally, their Quds-4 ground-attack cruise missile is capable of engaging land and sea targets at up to 800 km, based on Iranian-developed technology transferred to Yemen.

Ansar Allah's Air Defence
Ansar Allah have demonstrated remarkable air defence capabilities by shooting down multiple U.S. drones in recent years. Among them was the MQ-9 Reaper, a long-endurance strike drone capable of flying 27 hours at over 15 km altitude.

They repurposed Russian air-to-air missiles, such as the AA-10 Alamo-B and AA-11, converting them into surface-to-air missiles. The AA-10, originally designed for 4th generation Russian fighters like the MiG-29 and Su-35, became one of Ansar Allah’s most used systems since 2017. It is very effective against aircraft, helicopters, cruise missiles, and drones, and was deployed in ambushes deep inside Yemen’s mountainous terrain to intercept low-altitude targets.

The Wa’id drone, with a range of 2,500 km, is an example of long-range loitering munitions, designed to overwhelm enemy defences with coordinated salvos of five or more drones.

Although Iran provided the foundational technology, as it did with Hezbollah, Ansar Allah have localised production in mountain-based facilities. Their advanced missiles are manoeuvrable and semi-stealth, increasing the likelihood of striking targets despite not being pinpoint accurate. From a cost-benefit standpoint, the loss of a few drones or missiles is negligible compared to the potential damage inflicted on Israeli or U.S. warships.

Iraq
Iraq hosts a diverse set of armed factions with substantial military and political influence. These include Iran-backed Shiite groups, former anti-ISIS militias, anti-US resistance forces, and armed Sunni and Kurdish groups. The most prominent among them are organised under the Popular Mobilisation Forces (PMF), a state-sanctioned umbrella formed in 2014 to fight ISIS.

1. Asa’ib Ahl al-Haq (AAH)

Fighters: 10,000–15,000

Armament: Medium to heavy weapons and ballistic missiles

Leader: Qais al-Khazali

Influence: Strong in Baghdad, Basra, Dhi Qar, and Muthanna

Political arm: Fatah Alliance

2. Kata’ib Hezbollah (KH)

Fighters: 5,000–10,000

Armament: Drones andprecision missiles

Leader: Abu Ali al-Askari (succeeded Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis, who was killed in 2020)

Influence: Baghdad, Diyala, and the Syria border

3. Saraya al-Salam (formerly Mahdi Army)

Fighters: 5,000–8,000

Leader: Muqtada al-Sadr

Influence: Sadr City (Baghdad), Najaf, and Diwaniyah

4. Harakat al-Nujaba

Fighters: 3,000–5,000

Armament: Advanced missiles, intel units

Leader: Akram al-Kaabi

Influence: Baghdad, Karbala, Anbar

Formed the Golan Liberation Brigade during its presence in Syria (estimated 3,000 fighters), but the collapse of Damascus halted its activity.

5. Kata’ib Sayyid al-Shuhada

Fighters: 2,000–4,000

Leader: Abu Alaa al-Walae

Active in Baghdad and Diyala.

6. Badr Organization (formerly Badr Corps)

Fighters: 10,000+

Leader: Hadi al-Amiri

Political wing: Part of the Fatah Alliance

Influence: Baghdad, Basra, and Diyala

7. Saraya al-Khorasani

Fighters: 1,000–3,000

Operates under PMF

Following the assassinations of Commanders Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis and Qassem Soleimani in 2020, ordered by President Trump, new anti-colonialist resistance factions emerged, targeting American forces and interests. Though smaller, they play an active role in drone and missile attacks, particularly after the Palestinian Al-Aqsa Flood operation. They launched strikes from Iraq and inside Syria against US and Israeli targets, serving as a regional support front.

These groups include Kata’ib Hezbollah Iraq, Islamic Resistance Squadrons, Wa’ad al-Sadiq Corps, Muhammad Baqir al-Sadr Forces, Imam Hussein Brigade, Zulfiqar Brigade, Qassem al-Jabareen Resistance, Ashab al-Kahf Resistance, Saraya Awliya al-Dam, International Resistance Faction, Second 20th Revolution Brigades, Usbat al-Thaireen, Ulul Azm Group, Sabiqun Battalion, Khaybar Brigade, Thaer al-Muhandis Group, Abu al-Fadl al-Abbas Forces, Saraya al-Muntaqim, Martyr Karim Darham Group, Montaqimoun Brigade, and Thaireen Brigade.

In 2021 alone, these groups carried out an estimated 262 attacks on US forces or logistics convoys in Iraq, using IEDs.

Also active is the Tribal PMF, a Sunni-aligned pro-government force. This faction is large, but it lacks organisation and operates mainly in Anbar and Salah al-Din Provinces alongside the regular Iraqi Army.

In summary, Iran-backed Shiite groups remain the most powerful, while Christian, Sunni and Kurdish factions maintain influence in their respective regions.

Afghanistan
Hezbollah Afghanistan
Hezbollah Afghanistan is a Shiite political party established in 1980 as part of the ‘Tehran Eight’, which is a coalition of Iran-allied Afghan resistance groups. It fought against Soviet and Afghan government forces during the Soviet-Afghan war (1979–1989). It became a legal political party in 2005 and developed close ties with Liwa Fatemiyoun, an Iran-linked Afghan militia.

Though it shares a name, Hezbollah Afghanistan has no direct link to Lebanon’s Hezbollah, apart from both being aligned with Iran. It remains active in Afghan politics, advocating for Shiite interests. Some researchers argue Hezbollah Afghanistan and Liwa Fatemiyoun have merged; others see them as separate but cooperative entities.

Liwa Fatemiyoun
Liwa Fatemiyoun is a Shiite Afghan militia founded in 2014 by Ali Reza Tavasoli (Abu Hamed) to fight ISIS. It is funded, trained, and directed by Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). Tavasoli died fighting the Western-Al-Qaeda-assets in southern Syria, 2015.

Estimates place the group’s strength at around 14,000 fighters, as stated by deputy commander Sayyed Hassan Hosseini (‘Sayyed Hakim’). The group fought in Syria, specifically Deir ez-Zor and Al-Bukamal in late 2017, as part of a joint Iran-Syria-Russia campaign against ISIS, a Western asset, in eastern Syria. This was one occasion when Syria-aligned forces collaborated with the US-backed Kurdish militia gathered on the opposite bank of the Euphrates River.

Liwa Fatemiyoun uses light to medium weaponry including rifles, sniper systems, 23mm cannons, RPGs, and anti-tank guided missiles.

Pakistan
Liwa Zainabiyoun
This is a Pakistani Shiite militia comprising recruits from Parachinar and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, with some of Baloch origin. Initially, they were deployed to Syria in 2013 to defend the Sayyida Zaynab shrine, now under attack by the Al Qaeda Jolani regime (Ahmed Al Sharaa). Originally they were associated with Liwa Fatemiyoun, but later formed their own splinter unit.

Liwa Zainabiyoun now has around 5,000 fighters, with experience in Damascus, Daraa, Latakia, and Aleppo, playing a crucial role in several key battles. The group is universally respected for its professional combat skills.

Additional Cross-Border Factions
Iraqi resistance groups have extended support to other emerging resistance movements:

Islamic Resistance in Jordan: Reportedly includes members from the Muslim Brotherhood.

Islamic Resistance in the Arabian Peninsula: Composed of Hijaz (Saudi) Shiites from the Qatif region.

Saraya al-Ashtar in Bahrain: Known as the Islamic Resistance in Bahrain.

While little information is available, all three have claimed responsibility for drone attacks on Israeli military sites in 2024. All three are challengers to sectarian tyranny in their respective countries and are steadfast supporters of the Palestinian cause.

Syria
Southern Syria Resistance Units
Following the 2006 Lebanon War, the Syrian Government, working with Hezbollah, established Resistance cells along the occupied Golan Heights. Syrian intelligence oversaw recruitment. The Syrian Arab Army provided training facilities, and Hezbollah handled combat preparation.

Estimates place these forces at 20,000–30,000 fighters, mostly Syrian locals. Their intended mission was, eventually, to storm the Zionist-occupied Golan in coordination with Hezbollah’s Radwan Unit. The plan, initially planned for 2013–2015, was shelved due to the US/UK-led regime change war against Syria launched in 2011.

After the fall of the Syrian Government on 8 December 2024, the fate of these fighters remains unknown. Most likely, some relocated to southern Lebanon, while others remain hidden in Daraa, Quneitra, and Suwayda in southern Syria.

In addition, an estimated 60-80,000 Syrian Army officers and soldiers escaped to Iraq. These were experienced combatants previously stationed in the Syrian desert to fight ISIS. A further large number of SAA are now in Lebanon.

Conclusion: Can Iran Rely on the ‘Ring of Fire’?
Below is a map from the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) of US bases threatening Iran's borders.
Image

While much is made about the fact that US military bases are circling Iran with hostile intent, little is said about the Iran-aligned ‘Ring of Fire’ that effectively surrounds the US bases in the region. This came to light during the most recent Zionist aggression against Iran, when we saw the commitment of these Resistance groups to the defence of Iran and antipathy to the US military occupation of the region. These groups closed ranks in the war against the ‘arrogant powers’ very quickly, threatening US allied hegemony in the region.

Assessing the power and influence of these Resistance groups requires an understanding of both their strength and the factors shaping their decisions. A key strength lies in their adaptability and ability to evolve under political and logistical constraints.

Some groups, however, are limited by domestic political dynamics. Hezbollah in Lebanon, despite possessing over 150,000 rockets, many of them precision-guided and within close range of Israel (reducing the Iron Dome’s reaction time), cannot launch an open war without precise political calculations. Many Lebanese, including pro-Western factions, oppose such action and would blame Hezbollah for dragging Lebanon into war—an outcome Israel and the US actively encourage.

The Iraqi Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) face similar restrictions in a country divided by competing political agendas. Even Liwa Fatemiyoun and Liwa Zainabiyoun, active in Afghanistan and Pakistan, are limited in numbers and do not have the majority of popular support in their respective countries.

Nonetheless, despite the collapse of Syria as the backbone of the Resistance Axis, previously Iran’s key strategic ally, and heavy losses suffered by Hezbollah and Palestinian groups, the ‘Ring of Fire’ remains operational and potent. Estimates suggest:

Palestinian factions: at least 50,000 short-range rockets

Hezbollah: at least 100,000 short-to-mid-range rockets

Iraqi factions: around 100,000 rockets

Yemen: approximately 150,000 rockets

Iran itself: at least 300,000 missiles of various types

In total, Zionist and American bases in the region are surrounded by a conservative estimate of 700,000 rockets, including ballistic and hypersonic missiles, already proven effective and accurate in recent conflicts. Iran is a producer of these missiles on an industrial scale. Yemen has a successful missile production capability, and even Hezbollah is not entirely reliant upon Iran for the manufacture of weapons.

Yemen may now represent the most significant strategic force in this equation, thanks to its powerful arsenal, difficult terrain making ground invasion nearly impossible, and control over the Bab al-Mandeb Strait in the Red Sea.

Yemen's impact became undeniable following Trump’s fumbled ceasefire agreement which he sold as a Yemeni surrender but which was, in reality, a capitulation from the US after $1 billion in military expenditure on a failed military mission to ‘destroy the Houthis’.

What Ansar Allah achieved wasn't only a tactical success; it also marked a strategic global power shift and a major slap in the face of American military doctrine and marketed supremacy.

Perhaps the most important element in the long war against Iran is the recent potential for a Jihad ‘Fatwa’ spoken about by prominent Islamic scholars, against the US and the Zionist regimes. This is from Enemy Watch on Telegram:

Currently, the situation has evolved such that three prominent authorities in the Shia world, each in their own way, have warned about the potential issuance of a jihad fatwa against the United States and the Zionist regime.

Ayatollah Seyyed Ali Sistani, in response to threats from the US and Israel, warned that if the assault on the Marja’iyya (religious authority) and Leader of the Ummah (Imam Khamenei) continues, inevitably a jihad fatwa will be issued.

The history of Shia jurisprudence shows that whenever the Marja’iyya has been threatened, a fatwa was issued and the Ummah rose up. From the Tobacco Protest to resistance against ISIS, from the Constitutional Revolution to the occupation of Iraq, the Marja’iyya has never remained silent.

The battle lines have been drawn. Iran’s ‘Ring of Fire’ remains active and powerful despite recent losses across the region, particularly in Syria. It still poses an imminent and serious challenge to US and Zionist dominance and expansionism in the region, and above all, it is an unassailable barrier against the long-term agenda to destroy Iran and impose a Zionist-friendly regime in the country.

https://beeley.substack.com/p/iran-and- ... dium=email

******

The End Game in Iran also means the demise of Trump’s credibility around the world

Martin Jay

July 4, 2025

The Iranians have been fooled more than once in recent years and now they can’t be fooled again.

The recent news which floated to the top of the media cesspit in the UK that BBC journalists had been compromised by Israel shouldn’t have surprised anyone. It was really a ‘dead donkey’ story which many of us could have guessed. But it does remind us that Israel’s cash and political influence is not limited to the U.S. but has permeated all levels of British society including media. The recent outrage of the BBC filming a rapper at Glastonbury open air pop concert who chanted ‘death to IDF soldiers’ got a disproportionate amount of coverage to the actual genocide in Gaza on the same day by about a million to one. The chanting was vulgar but the point most pundits missed, regardless of where they stood on Israel’s daily holocaust in Gaza, was that Bob Vylan shouldn’t have had to go as far as he did if the coverage of the genocide was even vaguely fair. Of course, it isn’t. It is absurdly tipped in favour of Israel which creates a ground swell of ignorance from the average white van man in the UK who doesn’t really understand anything about international politics but who needs to align himself with a narrative. That ignorance leads to the ‘Israel has the right to defend itself’ narrative having no caveats or nuances being attached to it as we have left the free speech zone a long time ago. People don’t get that free speech is ugly. If you believe in free speech this is the first barb you have to deal with.

And so, the comfort zone of ‘controlled speech’ is what we have signed up to. We have stopped questioning our politicians and media. We allow Israel to block journalists entering Gaza on the hilarious assertion that it’s for their own safety when IDF soldiers use journalists for target practice (regardless of who they seem to be embedded with); our media continues to be controlled by the IDF media machine to such an extent that when the big screen explanations are given about the recent Israel-Iran 12 day war, there is no reference at all to Iran’s attacks in Israel. Nothing.

The truth is that we are no longer living in times where 80 percent of what we are seeing on our own legacy media is Israeli propaganda. It’s closer to 100 percent manufactured consent which pushes anyone with any level of intelligence towards alternative media and its commentators’ analysis. If you want to get an insight into the war in Ukraine or the Gaza genocide the chances are you’re not going to switch on Sky News or the BBC. You’re going to head towards X.

Most of what we are reading in the UK and U.S. press about Trump’s recent attacks in Iran are simply fake. They’re not even vaguely true. Even today U.S. media is largely supportive of Trump’s bunker buster attack on Iran’s underground nuclear simply by the fact that it chooses not to question the narrative offered by Trump himself. The reality is a stark difference to what is being presented. In brief, the attacks were an outright failure in every respect and, if anything, have created a pause for Iran to rebuild part of its military which was destroyed – even its command hierarchy – and to come out stronger and more defiant than before.

Far from Israel’s elite jumping for joy, it is now pulling its hair out in frustration as, once again, we are not told the truth about this tiny country and what Iran did to it. Currently it has its two main ports destroyed and its main oil refinery also put out of action. Can you imagine how it would be reported if Israel’s attack on Iran would have concluded that all its ports have been taken out and its oil refineries were no longer producing diesel for the economy to run?! In fact it’s worse than that for Israel as Iran also took out a number of military bases, a significant power plant and some huge investments, not to mention its main international airport. Not bad for ten days while Tehran was being bombed by Israel.

The truth is of course unpalatable, so it won’t be offered by western media. But the implications of Trump’s stunt are far worse than we think. While the cruel political cartoon which was doing the rounds of aides asking Trump “what was so bad about Obama’s deal with the Iranians?” which he replied “It’s got Obama’s signature on it” are as close to the mark as you’re going to get, what legacy media aren’t telling you is shocking.

The Iranians have been fooled more than once in recent years and now they can’t be fooled again. Since the Trump bombing, a new reality is emerging which makes everything Israel and Trump did look like an exercise in self harm on a grand scale. Now there is no incentive whatsoever to hold back on enriching uranium as whatever slither of trust might have been there before is gone. Iran can simply no longer trust Trump as it considers the talks as a trick, a ruse designed to only do harm to the regime. Even the whole concept of denying Iran the right to produce super cheap electricity is all about bringing about regime change. Now, it would be madness for Iran to continue to talk to the West and consider its demands given that it is constantly cheated.

The Iranians for their part have learnt a number of lessons which they might not have taken on the chin if it weren’t for the bunker buster bombing. There’s no question that they need to do something about Israeli assets operating in Iran, even within Iran’s intelligence apparatus. But the biggest lesson was with so-called neutral international agencies operating in Iran which in reality doubled up as an extension to the CIA and Mi6’s own resources plus of course Mossad’s. The IAEA has entirely lost all credibility of being neutral and the main reason for Tehran to kick it out of the country was not to make a statement to Trump or Israel but to stop it spying for Israel. The Iranians have realized that the scientists who were slaughtered in their homes in front of their families were done due to IAEA inspectors finding their addresses. The inspectors passed those addresses onto Mossad and this act alone will have dire consequences for a number of so-called neutral organizations which are active in the field of conflict prevention as they can never be trusted again. This stunt alone has been seen by the Global South which knows the U.S. can never be trusted again on such a level which has more or less destroyed any credibility that the Trump administration has around the world, with obvious questions now arising over whether Trump can ever secure a peace deal in Ukraine. Who can trust him after Iran?

https://strategic-culture.su/news/2025/ ... the-world/

******

WhatsApp was used to organize murders in Iran
July 5, 19:10

Image

Head of Iran's Civil Defense Organization: "WhatsApp played ( https://t.me/IRANist1/11467 ) a role in determining the geolocation and killing of some Hamas commanders, such as Haniyeh."

Western media and experts believe that the possibility of penetration of Israeli malware and WhatsApp's cooperation with American intelligence agencies are the main factors in the insecurity of this American messenger.

I wonder in what terrorist attacks WhatsApp has already been used in Russia?
Of course, we will not ban it. Moreover, our officials and military are still actively using it. Apparently until the first large number of corpses associated with it.

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/9939106.html

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"There is great chaos under heaven; the situation is excellent."

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Re: Iran

Post by blindpig » Mon Jul 07, 2025 2:27 pm

The illegal and immoral war against Iran

While trying to reassert their hegemonic primacy, the imperialists continue to drop bunker-busters on their own feet.

Ella Rule

Tuesday 1 July 2025

Image
In the face of Iran’s devastating counterattack, Netanyahu fled the country, while Israeli citizens were not allowed to leave. They were not so much human shields as bargaining counters to get the USA to join the war against Iran.

Every day, it’s a-getting closer
Moving faster than a roller coaster.
The third world war will surely come our way. (apologies to Buddy Holly)


*****

“Israel’s Benjamin Netanyahu aims to overthrow Iran’s clerical-military regime and talks openly of liquidating the supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. This is a fight to the death.

“There is a very high risk that the USA, Britain and France will be drawn directly into the conflict – pitting the democracies against the coalescing confederacy of Iran, China, Russia and north Korea, and its disturbingly large tail of semi-aligned states.

“The hybrid struggle between two rival blocs resembles the treacherous landscape before the Thirty Years War in 1618, and the first world war in 1914. All it takes is hubris and a few more errors to set off this slow-burning fuse.” (Israel’s attacks on Iranian energy threaten a perilous chain reaction by Ambrose Evans-Pritchard, The Telegraph Economic Intelligence, 17 June 2025)

The seeds of the third world war were planted in 1917 with the publication of the Balfour declaration. As French and British imperialists battled as part of the first world war in the middle east to annexe the territories of the Ottoman empire, they mobilised local Arab populations in their support by promising them independence. The ‘independence’ that was granted, however, turned out to be subjection to British or French interests under compliant Arab leaders.

These Arabs, however, were not entirely trusted, which is why Britain came up with its plan to accommodate the crazy dreams of a tiny sect of zionists who were claiming Palestine to be a jewish homeland by divine decree. Britain awarded itself the mandate of Palestine and oversaw large waves of jewish immigration into Palestine, which became a flood as a result of Hitlerite genocide of jews in Europe.

Arab resistance was suppressed and in 1947 the ‘jewish’ state of Israel was born. It was always a colonial project, a project for the occupation of the territory by a foreign power for settlement by foreigners whose purpose was to safeguard British imperialist interests in the middle east – in particular to be on standby to protect the Suez canal and to ensure compliance of Arab states in continuing to supply oil to the world at an acceptable price.

The jewish settlers drove Palestinian Arabs out of their homes through the use of armed terror and massacres, but the millions of displaced Palestinians have never accepted this injustice and have always tried to fight back in every way they could. Their problem has been that they were never just fighting back against the jewish settlers who had stolen their homes and livelihoods, but also against the British and American imperialist powers that have always backed little Israel to the hilt, armed it, financed it and seen to it that it thrived.

For Israel was their unsinkable aircraft carrier enforcing their control over the wealth of the entire region, and the jewish population was a ready and willing source of cannon fodder should the imperialists ever need to use force to defend its interests in the locality.

The major problem faced by Israel was the Palestinian resistance that has never given up. To ensure the safety of its Israeli asset, Palestinians had first to be subjected to a reign of terror in the hope that as many as possible would voluntarily emigrate; all dissent had to be ruthlessly repressed, especially by long imprisonment terms without trial; then those that remained had to be confined behind walls, having to pass through heavily armed checkpoints whenever they needed to move into ‘jewish’ areas; then they were ‘given’ their own land in the West Bank and Gaza to administer for themselves, but with no sovereignty of any kind, no ability to come and go as they pleased, no right to export and import what they pleased.

Gaza in particular was in effect just a concentration camp. In the meantime, Israeli settlers were taking over more and more of the West Bank and the parts of Jerusalem that had been allocated to Palestinians – again locking the Palestinians out, demolishing their homes, destroying their crops and trees, and committing daily acts of violence and oppression.

This, of course, only caused Palestinian resistance to grow and Israeli repression to intensify.

The assault on Gaza
The Palestinian resistance was faced with the choice of continuing to be subjected to a slow genocide or fighting back; and on 7 October they mounted an attack that by its size, strength, ingenuity and daring, shook Israel to its foundations.

In response, the Israelis set about trying to clear the whole of Gaza of its Palestinian population by carpet bombing, IDF incursion and starvation. This is being done with full imperialist approval, with US president Donald Trump presenting plans to turn Gaza into a tourist resort and anybody in the USA or Europe denouncing the genocide being persecuted as ‘antisemitic’.

As usual, however, the reactionaries miscalculated. They thought they could destroy the Palestinian leadership in short shrift and that would be the end of the problem for many years to come. But they have been unable to do so.

The Palestinians keep fighting on in spite of all the hardship, and it is Israel that is facing existential problems as a result: its population is deserting; its soldiers are either being killed or returning unable to fight any longer through injury or PTSD; its economy is in ruins, and the cost of the war is bankrupting it.

That being the case, Israel desperately needed the USA not just to arm and finance it but also to actually join the war as a participant.

Escalation to the attack on Iran and the overwhelming Iranian response
Hence Israel’s attack on Iran. Israel knew that Iran would retaliate, but calculated that the USA would need to intervene to save its valuable middle-eastern asset. And it would seem that the powers-that-be in Washington, or at least President Trump himself, were quite happy to see Israel attack Iran, killing generals and scientists and damaging military assets, failing to realise that this attack would put Israel in danger of obliteration.

Sure enough, the Iranian counteroffensive proved more than a match for Israeli defences.

In just the first few days, Iranian strikes hit more than 150 targets, including air bases, F-35, F-16 and F-15 fighters, tankers and transport aircraft, as well as command-and-control and electronic warfare centres located at these bases.

The attacks targeted military centres, military-industrial facilities used by the Israeli army to produce missiles, military equipment and weapons, as well as other military targets. These included the Israeli defence ministry building in Tel Aviv twice, the Israeli national security ministry building in Tel Aviv and several Israeli warplanes, including four F-35 fighter jets, the pilot of one of which has been captured.

The country’s anti-missile defences, which everybody thought were impenetrable, have been totally overcome.

How did this happen? Some of the answer was given by “Dr Marion Messmer, a senior research fellow of security studies at Chatham House, [who] said Israel’s air defences may not be as effective as many believe.

“Speaking of the Iron Dome in particular, she told the Independent it has ‘better PR than is actually warranted’ …

“‘Part of the Iranian strategy is essentially to fire a lot, and therefore to hope that the interceptors won’t be able to shoot everything down, which is one of the things that we’ve seen.’

“Experts believe that Iran may have also used hypersonic glide vehicles (HGVs), which can manoeuvre and glide at hypersonic speed, making them a lot harder to intercept.

“‘If you’ve got something that can manoeuvre, then obviously you can either pre-program an erratic flight path, or you can change it if you see that interceptors have been launched. That then makes it much easier to avoid any interception,’ Dr Messmer explained …

“Iran’s Revolutionary Guards on Monday said they had employed a new method that caused Israel’s multilayered defence systems to target each other and allowed Iran to successfully hit many targets.

“Dr Miron speculated that this may have been done by positioning decoy drones near Israeli defence missiles, in such a way that it would cause another Israeli missile to wipe it out.

“But the main cause of the most significant breach to Israel’s air defence in years, she said, is the sheer ‘overload’ of Iranian missiles which left it ‘overwhelmed’.” (How has Iran managed to breach Israel’s Iron Dome air defence system? by Alex Croft, The Independent, 19 June 2025)

In the face of Iran’s devastating counterattack, Netanyahu fled the country, while Israeli citizens were not allowed to leave. They were not so much human shields as bargaining counters to get the USA to join the war against Iran.

America enters the war
Confronting the real danger of Israel’s imminent obliteration, US imperialism flew its warplanes into Iran, ostensibly to take out Iran’s nuclear facilities to prevent it from developing weapons-grade uranium.

Before committing itself, the USA tried to strike terror into the hearts of the Iranian government with threats of how its bunker-busting bombs would be able to blast out even the deeply buried Iranian nuclear facility at Fordow. It was put about that as Israel didn’t have the necessary bunker-busters or the specialised aircraft to carry them, it was only America that could save the day.

In actual fact, the GBU-57 Massive Ordnance Penetrator bombs (MOBs) [which cost approximately $20m each] had no such guaranteed power, as Wesley Clark, a former supreme Allied European commander of Nato, pointed out. When on 17 June six b-52 bombers each carrying two MOBs, were dispatched to Iran, supposedly on a mission to ‘take out’ the Iranian nuclear facilities in Fordow, Natanz and Isfahan, they undoubtedly caused a great deal of damage, but did not succeed in destroying the plants.

What imperialism hopes it has achieved is, by bombing civilian nuclear power plants, to undermine Iran’s ability to provide cheap energy to its citizens, provoking them into overthrowing their firmly anti-imperialist government so that US imperialism gets a chance to instal a more compliant one.

Iran strikes back
Nevertheless, US imperialism’s main motivation is to try to save Israel’s skin. Iran responded by attacking US military bases in Qatar, Bahrain and Iraq.

With regard to the Al-Udeid base in Qatar, the Iranian government said it had targeted it with exactly the same number of missiles that the USA had used to bomb its peaceful nuclear facilities, and warned that, if the USA did not back down, its middle-eastern military bases would all be obliterated.

It also became obvious even to Trump that the 40,000 US troops stationed in the region could be next in the line of fire, as well as its aircraft carriers in the Persian Gulf, which Iran is well positioned to attack and destroy.

The next thing we know is that Trump announced a ‘ceasefire’.

There is, of course, no guarantee that the ceasefire will hold. US imperialism, in particular, is notorious for flouting the agreements that it makes as soon as it suits it to do so. As we go to press, no ceasefire is being observed, Trump having apparently demanded that Iran desist from bombing 12 hours before Israel had to do so, a condition which naturally Iran never accepted.

The Spectator is reporting that Trump is now furious with Israel for not observing his ceasefire. Let’s see!

The nuclear issue
The aggression against Iran mounted by both Israel and the United States has, according to them, all been aimed at stopping Iran from developing nuclear weapons. We were expected to believe that Iran’s ability to produce them was “imminent”, and that therefore immediate action was necessary to prevent that happening.

Well, Saddam’s notorious (but non-existent) “weapons of mass destruction” had been quite successful in luring the gullible to supporting imperialism’s war on Iraq, so why not use the same trick again? However, there is even less evidence of the existence of Iran’s nuclear weapons than there was of Saddam’s supposed WMDs.

Fawaz Gerges, professor of international relations at the London School of Economics (LSE), wrote in the Guardian of 20 June 2025:

“The foundation of Israel’s justification for launching pre-emptive strikes and of Washington’s quiet complicity is alarming. The core claim is that Iran was rapidly taking steps to ‘weaponise its uranium’, with Netanyahu, the Israeli prime minister, repeatedly warning that Tehran was approaching a point of no return in developing a nuclear bomb.

“But Netanyahu’s narrative flatly contradicts the US intelligence assessment, which found that not only is Iran not actively pursuing a nuclear weapon, it remains at least three years away from having the capability to do so. The CIA disputes the Israeli claim that Iran is close to crossing a nuclear threshold.

“Trump’s director of national intelligence, Tulsi Gabbard, testified in March that Iran was not building a nuclear weapon and that the country’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Khamenei, had not authorised a nuclear programme, one that was in fact suspended in 2003. Even if Iran was making a bomb, international law doesn’t give Israel and the USA the right to bomb Iran.” (We’re on the brink of a disastrous, illegal conflagration in the middle east. Trump must be stopped)

More than that! The only bar to Iran developing nuclear weapons is its signature to the treaty on the non-proliferation of nuclear weapons (NPT). Other than that, why should Iran not develop nuclear weapons, given that Israel has already accumulated quite a stockpile, estimated in 2021 to have reached 90 nuclear warheads? Theoretically, this stockpile does not exist, but in practice everybody knows that it does, with US imperialism staunchly turning a blind eye.

However, in its arrogance, Israel has provided its own proof: “An extraordinary three-part series on Israeli television, ‘The Atom and Me’, lays out how the country got its nuclear weapons … It shows the country’s single-minded determination to get the bomb no matter what it took, including stealing nuclear explosives and bomb components from the United States and violating a major nuclear arms control treaty to which Israel is a party – and lying about it …

“Several events discussed in the television series deal directly with the United States: the theft in the 1960s of bomb quantities of uranium 235 from the Numec facility in Pennsylvania, where the leaders of the Israeli team that spirited [Nazi war criminal Adolf] Eichmann out of Argentina appeared inexplicably in 1968 with false identities; the illicit purchase of hundreds of high-speed switches (krytrons) for triggering nuclear weapons, and spiriting them out of the country in the 1980s by Israeli spy and arms dealer, and by then Hollywood producer, Arnon Milchan; and, most significantly at this point, Israel’s 1979 nuclear test in the seas off South Africa of what appears to be the initial fission stage for a thermonuclear weapon. The nuclear test violated the 1963 Limited Test Ban Treaty to which Israel is a party …

“No one was ever charged in the disappearance of nuclear material from Numec. When the issue of Israel’s involvement arose again in 1976, President Gerald Ford’s attorney general suggested to the president the possibility of charging US officials, presumably in the Atomic Energy Commission, with failing to report a felony.

“But it was too late. Ford lost the election to Jimmy Carter, who let the matter drop. Milchan was never charged for the filching of krytrons, even though he later bragged about his arms dealing and spying for Israel. And Carter – and every US president after him – took no enforcement action in response to the illegal 1979 nuclear test.” (The US hypocrisy about Israel’s nuclear weapons must stop by Victor Gilinsky and Leonard Weiss, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, 21 March 2025)

It seems obvious that what were described as ‘thefts’ were in fact gifts, and that US imperialism was fully involved in enabling its middle-eastern attack dog to develop its own nuclear weapons production capacity.

Israel never signed up to the NPT. Iran did. And Iran did so because it had no intention of developing nuclear weapons. Within Islam, which the Iranian government takes very seriously, nuclear weapons are generally considered haram (forbidden), owing to their indiscriminate nature and the potential for widespread destruction, which contradicts the islamic principle of protecting human life and the environment.

Several scholars and leaders, including Iran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, have issued fatwas (religious rulings) declaring the development, stockpiling and use of nuclear weapons to be forbidden.

The IAEA
As Israeli bombs rained down on Iranian nuclear targets, it became apparent that the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), whose inspectors were given access to all areas of Iranian nuclear production in order to verify that the country’s nuclear programme was indeed entirely peaceful, had betrayed Iran. The head of the IAEA, Rafael Grossi (an Argentinian jew), had falsely claimed that Iran was in breach of its treaty obligations, thus giving Israel the pretext it needed for its attack.

Although Grossi later said that there was no evidence at all that Iran was anywhere near making a nuclear bomb, that admission was too little and came too late. The result has been that Iran has withdrawn from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, and in future everything it does will be done in the strictest secrecy.

It is also quite likely that the IAEA had been feeding detailed confidential information about Iranian nuclear facilities and personnel to Israel, either directly or via the USA, helping Israel to identify its targets, both physical and human.

The assault by Israel and the USA on Iran’s programme of nuclear power development for exclusively peaceful services may well end up forcing Iran to develop nuclear weaponry for the purposes of self-defence, as David Sanger has pointed out in the New York Times.

If America did succeed in destroying Iran’s current nuclear facilities, the possibility could arise that “Iran could slowly recover, its surviving nuclear scientists could take their skills underground, and the country could follow the pathway lit by north Korea, with a race to build a bomb. Today, north Korea [the DPRK] has 60 or more nuclear weapons by some intelligence estimates, an arsenal that probably makes it too powerful to attack.

“That, Iran may conclude, is the only pathway to keep larger, hostile powers at bay, and to prevent the United States and Israel from carrying out an operation like the one that lit up the Iranian skies on Sunday morning.” (With military strike his predecessors avoided, Trump takes a huge gamble, 21 June 2025)

Imperialism drops a bunker-buster on its own foot
Making it much more likely that Iran will hasten to develop its own nuclear weapons is not the only way in which imperialism is shooting itself in the foot.

(a) Energy supplies

A major problem for imperialism, which causes the USA’s imperialist allies to worry and is leading them to distance themselves, verbally at least, from the American assaults on Iran, is Iran’s ability to block shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, through which a large proportion of oil tankers have to pass if they are to deliver their cargoes where needed.

This is not a step Iran would take lightly as any blockade would also affect its own shipping and that of its allies, but it is nevertheless an option to be considered, as it would send the price of energy soaring again in the imperialist countries and strengthen internal opposition in those countries to the waging of the war by their ruling class.

Furthermore, as Ambrose Evans-Pritchard has pointed out: Iran “might try to mobilise the Iraqi shia militias, such as the Kataib Hezbollah and the Popular Mobilisation Forces, to paralyse the Basra oil terminals – threatening up to 3.4m b/d of exports.

“Oxford Economics said a full-blown oil crisis of this kind would push oil to $130, and push both global and US inflation to 6 percent.” (Telegraph, op cit)

This is a prospect that has certainly put the wind up bourgeois leaders in all the imperialist countries, who are already struggling with the imposition of more and more austerity on their respective working classes.

(b) Losing in the court of public opinion

It must not be forgotten that Trump was elected on a platform of ending America’s “forever wars”, yet now he appears to be plunging America into a brand new forever war against Iran! Polling suggests that no less than 60 percent of the US population opposes engaging in war with Iran, and that percentage is bound to increase the more the USA is hammered by Iranian retaliation. Iran, after all, has yet to deploy its newest technologically superior weapons.

These concerns were very well expressed in a rather enjoyable article in the Times published on 23 June 2025, from which we quote:

“Donald Trump never let Joe Biden forget the 13 American service members killed during the chaotic withdrawal from Afghanistan as he built his campaign around becoming a ‘peacemaker’ president. Trump claimed, falsely, that not a single American soldier was killed in Afghanistan during the last 18 months of his presidency after he agreed a deal with the Taliban.

“Not only did this deny the fact of the 12 soldiers who lost their lives in hostile action during this period, but it revealed one of the greatest threats to his carefully nurtured image – the deaths of American soldiers overseas on his watch. Any casualties in the middle east as a direct result of his actions will shatter his image with his adoring Make America Great Again (Maga) base …

“The stakes have been raised over his middle-east adventure by one of Maga’s most prominent figures, Marjorie Taylor Greene, a congresswoman from Georgia. Unlike other sceptical Maga voices, who have been inclined to give Trump the benefit of the doubt on Iran, Taylor Greene is posting strongly contrarian views.

“‘Maga is not for foreign wars. We are not for regime change. We are for AMERICA FIRST. The United States should not be involved in fighting nuclear-armed Israel’s war with Iran,’ she wrote on Monday.

“She also posted, but quickly deleted, a far more biting critique, accusing Trump of a ‘bait and switch’ on his voters ‘to please the neocons, warmongers, military industrial complex contracts and neocon TV personalities that Maga hates’. In a post that sounded like it was written in a blind fury, she added: ‘I spent millions of my own money and TRAVELLED THE ENTIRE COUNTRY campaigning for President Trump and his Maga agenda and his promises. And Trump’s Maga agenda included these key promises: NO MORE FOREIGN WARS. NO MORE REGIME CHANGE. WORLD PEACE.’

“Trump perplexed many of his supporters with his post on Sunday night suggesting regime change for Iran after his top officials had spent the day carefully and clearly distancing themselves from that idea.

“Marco Rubio, the secretary of state, told Fox News on Sunday: ‘I don’t like the regime but we’re not into the regime change business here. We’re into the safety and security of the United States’ business.’

“This was exactly what Maga wanted to hear. Then Trump posted that evening: ‘If the current Iranian regime is unable to MAKE IRAN GREAT AGAIN, why wouldn’t there be a regime change??? MIGA!!!’

“The shockwaves among his supporters were felt back at the White House, so out came Karoline Leavitt, Trump’s press secretary, on Fox on Monday morning to explain: ‘Our military posture has not changed … why shouldn’t the Iranian people take away the power of this incredibly violent regime?’

“This corrective did not placate Taylor Greene. Her deleted post shows the explosive potential of the Maga base to fracture if American bodybags start arriving back from the Gulf.” (Trump is breaking his promises – and it will cost him supporters by David Chater)

On top of that, the US president’s unilateral act of war has been made in breach of the USA’s own constitution, which requires the authorisation of Congress which has the exclusive right to declare war. While the president may not have uttered the words “I/We declare war against Iran”, initiating any act of war when not under attack does amount to a declaration of war.

Requiring Congress’s authorisation is supposed to safeguard the USA against acting without careful consideration – which is certainly what appears to have happened here. Given that the arsenals of the imperialist world have been severely depleted by Nato’s war in Ukraine, from the imperialist point of view it would certainly have been desirable to consider whether war was a good idea just at this time!

At the time of writing, it is not clear whether the war will stop or not. If it does stop, the issues that have given rise to it have in no way been resolved and it’s only a matter of time before we will once more be staring WW3 in the face.

https://thecommunists.org/2025/07/01/ne ... inst-iran/
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Re: Iran

Post by blindpig » Fri Jul 18, 2025 2:13 pm

Iran's key nuclear facilities were not seriously damaged
July 18, 9:12

Image

Regarding Iranian nuclear facilities, American media, citing anonymous military sources (Trump will be furious as usual), claim that of the three key Iranian nuclear facilities, only one was seriously damaged. This is the nuclear facility in Natanz, where not only were the buildings on the surface destroyed, but there was also at least one penetration by a bunker buster bomb, which could have damaged at least some of the valuable equipment in the underground part of the complex.

In Isfahan, there were no serious attempts to strike the underground complex. Israel and the United States destroyed or damaged some of the above-ground structures, but bunker busters were not used there at all, so the underground part of the complex was not seriously damaged.

Several bunker busters were dropped on the Fordow site, but they failed to reach the underground part of the complex, and all that was done was to seal off the entrances to the complex and cause superficial damage.

After the war, Iran immediately kicked out the "observers/spies" from the International Atomic Energy Agency, completely dismantled surveillance cameras from nuclear facilities, and stepped up the hunt for Israeli spies. In fact, now the United States and Israel can only get information about what is really going on in the Iranian nuclear program through intelligence channels. If the Iranians can ensure sufficient secrecy, then there may be about as much information about the real state of Iran's nuclear project as about the North Korean nuclear program.

It is worth noting that it is still unknown where Iran took hundreds of kilograms of enriched nuclear weapons that were not destroyed. The removal of uranium was carried out even before the strikes on nuclear facilities.

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Re: Iran

Post by blindpig » Tue Jul 29, 2025 2:07 pm

From Cassad's Telegram account:

Colonelcassad
Statement-clarification of the Ministry of Intelligence of Iran on the “Silent Battle with NATO Intelligence in the 12-Day Imposed War”

What happened during the 12-day imposed war was a planned and comprehensive military operation with the simultaneous use of all the components of a hybrid war: military, intelligence, information-psychological, sabotage, terror, sabotage, destabilization and the organization of internal unrest with the aim and illusion of “forcing the country to capitulate and submit, overthrow the sacred system of the Islamic Republic and dismember Greater Persia.” This operation was carried out on the orders of the hypocritical regime ruling in the United States, by the hands of a criminal Zionist group with the assistance of a number of European countries and with the participation of anti-government groups, takfiri terrorists and armed bandits.

The enemy sought to activate bandits and various types of terrorists under various covers, activate spy agencies in standby mode, conduct terrorist and sabotage operations, bring mercenaries, monarchist scum, hooligans, rebel centers and sleeper cells of the "mujahideen (MKO)" to the streets in order to stir up discontent, incite protests and turn the situation into unbridled street chaos.

Numerous offensive and reconnaissance actions (active reconnaissance) were carried out in various cities of the occupied territories against the interests of the Zionist regime and the criminal group ruling in it. One of the approaches used was to recruit agents from the deepest depths of the regime's military and intelligence structures to carry out assigned missions, obtain documented and videotaped reports of the operations and verify them. At present, it is confidently stated that although the regime has managed to identify and arrest some Israeli agents, the larger and more sensitive part of the operations continues.

20 Mossad spies, operatives, support agents and people associated with it were identified and arrested. The regime's terrorist plans to assassinate 23 government officials during the 12-day war were uncovered and thwarted. Also in the last months before the war, 13 similar plots were identified and thwarted, which, with God's help, prevented the assassination of 35 high-ranking civilian and military officials.

The monarchist opposition forces, led by Mossad, planned a massive invasion of Tehran by armed groups on 1 Tira (according to the Iranian calendar). The plan included mobilizing the families of prisoners and protesters outside the prison to provoke street riots. This scenario was thwarted by the arrest of 122 agents in 23 provinces before the attacks.

During the same period, a Mossad cell under the guise of a Christian Zionist movement, linked to churches in Seattle and the occupied territories, carried out subversive activities. 53 foreign-trained agents were arrested, their bases were identified, their weapons were seized, and the group’s activities were neutralized.

98 operatives linked to a Zionist-terrorist TV channel were detained or summoned to security services.

Six major arms shipments to Kurdistan and the logistics network of the terrorist group’s military wing in Iraqi Kurdistan were successfully destroyed.

The people’s support – intelligent, loyal, and selfless – played a special role. After calls for assistance in identifying suspicious activity, the Iranians responded en masse, displaying heroism that cannot be described in words. We bow our heads before the greatness of this nation and ask for continued cooperation in the future.

@parstodayrussian

This is essentially the first detailed commentary on the failures of Iranian counterintelligence during the 12-day war. In other circumstances, these mistakes could have been fatal, but the state structure stood firm, the people did not fall for the sweet promises, and the missilemen gave the aggressors a hard time by covering up someone else's failures.

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******

Iran Refuses to Blink as Europe Eyes Snapback Sanctions
Posted on July 29, 2025 by Yves Smith

Yves here. I am running this post in part as an appeal to readers for a fact check. This article makes clear that European states are considering triggering the JCPOA’s so-called snapback provisions. Even though the US is not presently a member of the JCOPA, it can get one of its good stooges who are still party to the agreement and on the UN Security Council, like the UK, to initiate the snapback process. The effect would be that the former, even more stringent sanctions on Iran would go back into force and would be binding on all UN member without a new vote by all UN members.


The snapback provisions expire on October 18. What I find confusing is that this post describes the snapback being bruited about as a live threat against Iran. However, Alastair Crooke, who is seen as very well informed about events in the region, said regularly last spring that there was a procedural drill involved, with Iran being allowed time to make what amounts to a rebuttal, that put the last date for triggering the JCPOA snapback well before October 18. Crooke had depicted the time needed to go though all the steps before the October 18 drop dead date meant the snapback procedure needed to be initiated by June. He’s said mid June as well as end of June, as you can see below. Crooke had further argued that the snapback timetable was a big, if not the reason, that Israel insisted that action had to be taken against Iran by the end of spring at the latest.

Here is a representative discussion by Crooke. The key part begins at 7:00:

[youtube]http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2025/07/ ... tions.html[/youtube]

One of them that came out of the blue is that the E3 that is the European states who are still members of the JCPOA, Germany France and the UK, have told Iran that they are going to trigger snapback by the end of June this year. And so I think this is an interesting, I mean clearly concerted, the Europeans doing the work. A US cannot do it because it’s no longer a member of the process. But the snapback system anyway expires in October. But for various reasons there are processes within it where it takes a little time to take effect because there’s a reconciliation point where Iran can make their points and then it goes into effect a little after that. So there isn’t that much time. Maybe this is why he [Trump] said it had to be done by spring, this was the deadline that everyone was talking about. .

The best description of the snapback implementation process I have found on a quick search is not precise about timelines but does not mention Iran having a right to respond to the charges.1 Even though I trust Crooke all day more than I do Simon Watkins, Crooke has also been blaming the stripping out of a UN Security Council member being able to veto the implementation of the process on the US, when in fact that was Russia’s doing.

But if Crooke’s general take on the process is correct, and key players though the snapback needed to be set in motion during June to beat the procedure’s expiration in October, even assuming generously that a couple of extra weeks were built into the June assumption, end of July would seem to be too late.

And that would explain why Iran is so chill. The snapback threat would be empty, mere posturing for the Western press. Perhaps the US and its camp followers anticipate they can get enough Western states to implement the snapback in the absence of them being binding UN sanctions to still be able to tighten the economic screws on Iran further.

By Simon Watkins, a former senior FX trader and salesman, financial journalist, and best-selling author. He was Head of Forex Institutional Sales and Trading for Credit Lyonnais, and later Director of Forex at Bank of Montreal. He was then Head of Weekly Publications and Chief Writer for Business Monitor International, Head of Fuel Oil Products for Platts, and Global Managing Editor of Research for Renaissance Capital in Moscow. Originally published at OilPrice

Talks between Iran and the European Troika (France, Germany, UK) over the weekend, initiated under U.S. guidance, aimed to gauge Iran’s willingness to revive the JCPOA before an October 18 EU deadline for reimposing snapback sanctions.
Europe is increasingly aligned with Washington’s harder stance, citing Iran’s expanding military ties with Russia and North Korea, including missile transfers and nuclear cooperation, and is now demanding Tehran limit missile range to 1,000 km.
If Iran fails to comply, Europe will likely trigger snapback sanctions, potentially prompting Iran to exit the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty.
There was a time when Europe broadly was in favour not just of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA, colloquially ‘the nuclear deal’) but also of continuing with it even after the U.S.’s unilateral withdrawal from the arrangement on 8 May 2018. This was based partly on long-running historical ties between France (one of the three key economic and political powerhouses of the continent, along with Germany and Great Britain) and the pre- and post-1979 Islamic Revolution regimes, and Germany’s considerable commercial ties with Iran. Britain has occupied a neutral-at-best stance since it and the U.S. effected a change of regime in Iran in 1953 with the removal of the enormously popular Iranian Prime Minister, Mohammad Mossadegh (through ‘Operation Boot’ as it was codenamed by Britain’s Secret Intelligence Service, or ‘Operation Ajax’ by the U.S.’s Central Intelligence Agency) and his replacement by General Fazlollah Zahedi, as detailed in full in my latest book on the new global oil market order. So, what has been happening in talks over the weekend – orchestrated in large part by the U.S. – between Iran and this European ‘troika’?

It took some time for continental Europe – which excludes Britain – to appreciate the full gravitas of the security threat posed to it after Russia invaded Ukraine on 24 February 2022. This comes not just from the obvious intention of Russian President Vladimir Putin to push further westwards into Europe if his military is victorious in Ukraine, but also from the increasingly unified bloc of enemies to it and its key economic and political allies around the world that also includes China, Iran, North Korea and their allies too. China continues to provide Iran’s chief source of financing keeping it afloat in the form of continued oil imports, North Korea has troops fighting on the ground in Ukraine for Russia, and Iran sustains a steady flow of drones, missiles, and other weaponry and support to this illegal Russian incursion. It could well be said that Europe’s limp response to Russia’s ‘test-invasions’ of sovereign European territories Georgia in 2008 and Ukraine in 2014 (with the subsequent unopposed annexation of its Crimea region) gave Putin the confidence to go ahead with the full-scale version in 2022. The U.S. and Britain certainly thought this was the case, which is why both have pushed so strongly to end the culture of dependence in Europe on cheap and plentiful energy supplies from Russia that turned much of the continent into the Kremlin’s fat, pliant lapdog. In so doing, the U.S. and Britain have laid the foundation for a broad, deep and strong economic, political, and military alliance of democratic countries capable of facing down the threats posed by the enemies ranged against them.

It is in this context, then, that these weekend talks between the European Troika were set in motion by the U.S. According to a senior security source in Washington spoken to exclusively at the end of last week by OilPrice.com, it was thought that a “scouting mission” to ascertain Iran’s genuine position towards negotiating a new version of the JCPOA was best carried out by Europe, following the U.S.’s role in recent attacks against the Islamic Republic. It was also thought by Washington that the Iranians would be extremely keen to engage with Europe as it is getting very close to a critical deadline for Tehran and Europe. This is the European Union’s (E.U.) 18 October deadline to impose snapback sanctions on Iran. These comprise a comprehensive range of UN Security Council sanctions that were lifted from the Iranian economy when the original JCPOA was signed in 2015. These would include multiple new financial sanctions on companies and individuals and increased surveillance by the Financial Action Task Force (FATF). The FATF has 40 active criteria and mechanisms in place to prevent money laundering — an activity that is vital to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps’ (IRGC) activities across the world. It also has nine criteria and mechanisms in place to do the same for the financing of terrorism and related activities — again, a core of the IRGC’s role in promoting Iran’s brand of Islam around the globe. The FATF also has swingeing powers to wield against individuals, companies, or countries who transgress any of its standards and is extremely aggressive in using them by degrees, depending on whether the sanctioned entity is on its ‘grey’ or ‘black’ list. After the 18 October deadline – if snapback sanctions are not reimposed — all UN sanctions on Iran will be lifted.

Given this, Washington reasons that Iran would go to considerable lengths to avoid having these snapback sanctions reimposed by Europe, so would consider making some significant concessions to avoid this happening, and this can be seen as a gauge of how much the U.S. could benefit from full discussions on the JCPOA in the near future. In this context, it is apposite to note that Washington has the same short-term and long-term objectives in any such new negotiations as it did before the recent Israeli/U.S. attacks on Iran, and it is also crucial to note that none of these objectives are negotiable in any future discussions, the Washington source underlined to OilPrice.com. The short-term objective is for Iran to have not one scrap of enriched material that could be used to make a nuclear weapon, both now and at any point in the future. This brings into play the adjunct element of this objective, which is having independent inspectors able at any time to fully inspect any facility anywhere in Iran that it wants from top to bottom for as long as it takes. The long-term objective is to remove the powers of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) – through the FATF and other mechanisms related to destroying its financial base – and then if necessary, removing the Supreme Leader from power. This option may well be required, given that at the centre of the guiding principles for all top-level Iranian politics is the concept of Velayat-e-Faqih, which means that all serious political and religious authority is entrusted to the Shia clergy, and their ultimate authority, the Supreme Leader. Popular support in Iran for the return of the U.S.-based exiled Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi — the eldest son of Farah Diba and Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, the last Shah of Iran – has been steadily growing for weeks, according to a senior source who works closely with Iran’s Petroleum Ministry, exclusively spoken to by OilPrice.com over the weekend.

From Europe’s perspective, the mood before – and after the end of the weekend’s talks –remains unequivocally in favour of imposing the full set of snapback sanctions on Iran, according to a very senior E.U. security source exclusively spoken to by OilPrice.com a few days ago. “More information keeps coming in about the increased number of Russian nuclear scientists sent to Iran between June 2024 and February 2025 and the three top missile experts from Pyongyang who have been in Iran for 140 days or so,” he said. “Verified reports show that Iran is becoming ever more active in the Russia-Belarus campaign of eroding NATO’s eastern flank defences particularly along the vulnerable northern and southern border defences that are most vulnerable,” he added. “In the last delivery of mid- and long-range missiles from Tehran to Moscow, the IRGC included — as they had promised in February in a visit to Moscow – ‘Etemad’ [a late generation ballistic missile], and ‘Fath 360’ [a multi-lunch ballistic missile launching system], with most of the latter to be positioned by Moscow near the Belarus border with Poland,” he underlined. “Even more recent intelligence received from Iran of its newest missile capabilities confirm successful testing of the new generation of solid fuel missiles with a range of 4,200 kilometres carrying a payload of 700 kilogrammes – and this range could be enhanced to 4,700 kilometres if the payload is reduced to 450 kilogrammes – effectively allowing Iran to target most of the major cities in Europe,” he told OilPrice.com. “So, the [European] Troika has now included a new condition for any further JCPOA discussions that requires Tehran to restrict its missile range to 1,000 kilometres – and Tehran made it clear that it will not accept this,” he highlighted.

The U.S. has already been fully briefed by the European Troika on the results of the weekend talks with Iran, which it saw as Tehran’s last chance for a long-term diplomatic solution to the long-running problem between Iran and the West over its nuclear intentions. “The view in Washington is that if Iran does not show considerable willingness to make concessions then the course of events would be snapback sanctions reimposed by Europe, which may then lead to Iran withdrawing from the NPT [Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty] and then a significant escalation of preventative measures [against Iran’s nuclear ambitions] by the U.S. and its allies,” the E.U. source concluded.

______

1 From IranWire:

As October 18, 2025, approaches – the tenth anniversary of the JCPOA and the deadline for deciding whether to terminate or extend UN Security Council Resolution 2231 – the snapback mechanism outlined in the resolution has once again drawn attention in Iran.

UN Security Council Resolution 2231 was adopted after the JCPOA agreement was reached, and it annulled six previous Security Council resolutions regarding Iran’s nuclear program and most of the UN sanctions.

However, it included a provision that if the Islamic Republic fails to comply with the JCPOA, the sanctions could quickly be reimposed.

Britain has said it is prepared to trigger the snapback mechanism against Iran over violations of the nuclear deal.

How Does the Snapback Mechanism Work?

Any of the current members of the JCPOA – France, the UK, Germany, China, and Russia – can invoke the snapback mechanism if they claim Iran has violated the agreement.

The United States, having withdrawn from the JCPOA and reimposed sanctions during Donald Trump’s presidency, has lost its political leverage to use snapback.

However, it can request its activation through other countries. The U.S. government failed in its attempt to invoke snapback during the first term of Trump’s presidency.

Four of the JCPOA member states that are permanent members of the UN Security Council can directly activate the mechanism.

Germany, which is not a member of the Security Council, must seek activation through one of its permanent members.

In the first step, one or more JCPOA member states must send a letter to the UN Secretary-General and the president of the Security Council about Iran’s non-compliance with the terms of the agreement.

Once the letter is submitted, the president of the Security Council must inform the other members of the warning.

The Security Council has 10 days from the formal receipt of the letter to vote on a draft resolution regarding the continuation or termination of the suspension of Security Council sanctions on the Islamic Republic.

No veto power exists, and the time frame is only 30 days.

In the Security Council’s vote on the resolution, veto power was removed following a proposal by Russia, meaning no country could block the draft resolution or prevent the return of sanctions on Iran using a veto.

If a country uses its veto, it would effectively veto the continuation of sanctions relief for Iran, leading to the immediate reimposition of UN Security Council sanctions on Iran’s nuclear program.

The continuation of sanctions relief can only be approved if nine votes in favor are achieved in the Security Council, with no permanent member vetoing it.

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Re: Iran

Post by blindpig » Wed Aug 27, 2025 2:11 pm

Australia Breaks With Iran - Sign Of A New War Coming?

The Aussies just trashed their relations with Iran based on nothing but obscure say-so.

Australia throws out Iran ambassador over alleged antisemitic attacks

Canberra expelled Tehran’s ambassador after accusing Iran of masterminding at least two antisemitic attacks on Australian soil.
Australia’s Prime Minister Anthony Albanese said the country’s intelligence services had linked Iran’s military to arson attacks in Sydney and Melbourne, throwing out an ambassador for the first time since World War II, a move The Sydney Morning Herald’s national affairs editor dubbed “the diplomatic equivalent of the nuclear option.”

Iran rejected the charge.


I have searched and read several news pieces on this issue and have found no mention of any fact that would connect two months ago arson incidents in Australia with Iran.

The whole thing came out of nowhere based solely on the say-so from the Australian spy service ASIO:

What Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has called ASIO's "deeply disturbing conclusion" is that the Iranian government was involved in these "extraordinary and dangerous acts of aggression orchestrated by a foreign nation on Australian soil", identified as the activities of Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).

There is no mentioning on what, if anything, ASIO's alleged conclusions are based on. There are guesses:

No doubt “protecting sources” will mean that the detail of these “links” will never see the light of day [despite curiosity as to why Iranian security would have even the slightest interest in attacks on Jewish businesses in Australia] but recent history tells us that Mossad and the CIA are almost certainly responsible. These are the same agencies, after all, that fed us a steady stream of fake war propaganda including the supposed WMDs in Iraq, claims of Hamas bases under Gaza hospitals and fake stories about Iran being on the verge of producing nuclear weapons.
Canberra’s diplomatic attack on Iran comes as the Israelis prepare for a second round of aggression against Iran and while the Australian public, through huge rallies, has been expressing its outrage at the Albanese government’s collaboration with the Gaza genocide and demanding punishment of the Israelis.


How is Iran supposed to profit from arranging criminal arson attempts against some random synagogues in Australia?

One might assume that the whole thing is coming up now to calm Zionist anger at Australia which has become more aggressive after ten-thousands of Australians had expressed outraged over Israels ongoing genocide of Palestinians:

Albanese was just last week labeled “weak” by his Israeli counterpart after he said Australia would recognize a Palestinian state: The two countries have seen relations nosedive, with Canberra barring an Israeli far-right politician from entering Australia and Israel revoking the visas of Australian representatives to the Palestinian Authority.

There may also be a larger context to this:

chinahand @chinahand - 8:01 UTC · Aug 26, 2025
Seems as tell that another attack on Iran spearheaded by Israel and backed by g7 is forthcoming


That another round of Israeli aggression against Iran is coming has been predicted for some time:

[W]ith its June attacks, Israel achieved a partial victory at best. Its preferred outcome was for Trump to fully engage, targeting both Iran’s conventional forces and economic infrastructure. But while Trump favors swift, decisive military action, he fears full-scale war. His strategy in attacking Iran’s nuclear facilities was thus designed to limit escalation rather than expand it. In the short term, Trump succeeded—much to Israel’s chagrin—but in the long run, he has allowed Israel to trap him in an escalatory cycle.
His refusal to escalate beyond a limited bombing campaign was a key reason that Israel agreed to a cease-fire.
...
Regardless of whether Iran resumes uranium enrichment, Israel is determined to deny it time to replenish its missile arsenal, restore air defenses, or deploy improved systems. That logic is central to Israel’s “mowing the grass” strategy: strike preventively and repeatedly to prohibit adversaries from developing capabilities that could challenge Israeli military dominance.

This means that, with Iran already rebuilding its military resources, Israel has an incentive to strike sooner rather than later. What’s more, the political calculus around another attack becomes much more complicated once the United States enters its midterm election season. As a result, a strike could very well take place within the coming months.

This, of course, is the outcome that Iranian leaders want to deter. To dispel any illusion that Israel’s “mowing the grass” strategy works, Iran is likely to strike hard and fast at the outset of the next war.


If Israel decides to again attack Iran the question is when, and to what extend, the Trump administration will again jump in.

Posted by b on August 26, 2025 at 15:10 UTC | Permalink

https://www.moonofalabama.org/2025/08/a ... .html#more

*****

Iran’s Planned Railway To The Black Sea Will Be Dependent On Azerbaijan
Andrew Korybko
Aug 27, 2025

Image

A popular Telegram channel falsely claimed that this is a “checkmate to US/Zangezur plans” and even shared a map showing a different route than what was confirmed in order to mislead their audience.

Armenian Deputy Foreign Minister Vahan Kostanyan told Iran’s Islamic Republic News Agency (IRNA) in an interview earlier this month during his trip to Tehran that his country envisages its recent US-mediated agreements with Azerbaijan facilitating Iran’s access to the Black Sea. In his words, “this will open new doors for railway cooperation between Armenia and Iran, including through the Nakhchivan–Jolfa railway line, which will mean Iran’s access to Armenia and, ultimately, to the Black Sea.”

Iranian Minister of Roads and Urban Development Farzaneh Sadegh soon thereafter met with his counterpart in Yerevan during President Masoud Pezeshkian’s trip there to discuss reopening this corridor. The popular Telegram channel “Geopolitics Prime” then drew wider attention to this in their post about it, claiming that it’s a “checkmate to US/Zangezur plans”, “counters Azerbaijan’s Zangezur Corridor ambitions”, and “block[s] US/Azerbaijani efforts to isolate Tehran.” None of that is true.

As Kostanyan noted in his interview with IRNA, this corridor transits through Azerbaijan’s Nakhchivan Autonomous Republic, thus meaning that Iranian-Armenian rail connectivity will be dependent on Baku. There’s a road between them via Armenia’s narrow Syunik Province across which the “Trump Road for International Peace and Prosperity” (TRIPP, formerly known as the Zangezur Corridor) will transit, but that region’s mountainous geography makes it very expensive to build a North-South railway there.

Accordingly, Iran’s planned corridor to the Black Sea isn’t a “checkmate to US/Zangezur plans”, doesn’t “counter Azerbaijan’s Zangezur Corridor ambitions”, and in no way “block[s] US/Azerbaijani efforts to isolate Tehran” like Geopolitics Prime claimed in their post and others might now soon allege as well. To be sure, Iran can still export its products to the European market via the road through Syunik and then onwards to Georgia’s Black Sea ports, but that’s not as fast or cost-efficient as relying on rail.

Moreover, the EU might either not have much of a market for Iranian products anyhow or the US could pressure the bloc into not purchasing them (given the influence that the US now exerts over the EU after their totally lopsided trade deal), so any Black Sea corridor might not even matter all that much for Iran. Nevertheless, it would still be significant if Azerbaijan and the US don’t interfere with any Iranian exports through Nakhchivan and Syunik respectively, which might partially alleviate tensions over TRIPP.

About that, this analysis here explains how that corridor threatens to undermine Russia’s broader regional position, which is relevant to Iran as well since its national interests would also be challenged by TRIPP turbocharging the expansion of US-backed Turkish influence all across its northern periphery. While senior Iranian officials lambasted TRIPP due to the US leasing control over it for 99 years, which Kostanyan told IRNA “does not mean a US security presence”, Iran ultimately chose to accept it.

The decision to cooperate with Azerbaijan to facilitate trade with Armenia and beyond represents a middle ground between confrontation and capitulation, but either extreme might still manifest if Kostanyan was only telling a half-truth and TRIPP’s security is outsourced to US PMCs like some fear. For now, and absent the permanent deployment of US troops or PMCs to Armenia, Iran is trying to make the best of a strategically difficult situation, perhaps hoping that this will appease the emerging Turkic Bloc.

https://korybko.substack.com/p/irans-pl ... -the-black
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Re: Iran

Post by blindpig » Sat Aug 30, 2025 1:50 pm

August 30, 2025 by M. K. BHADRAKUMAR
West Asia is lurching toward war

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Billboard of pictures of nuclear scientists and centrifuges captioned ‘Science is the power’, Enqelab square, Tehran, August 29, 2025

There is extremely alarming news about the situation around Iran. In consultations with the Trump administration — rather, in deference to the command from Washington — the E3 countries (Britain, France and Germany) who are the remaining western signatories of the 2015 Iran nuclear deal known as JCPOA, have initiated the process of triggering the so-called snapback mechanism with the aim to reimpose all UN sanctions against Iran on the plea that it has breached the terms of the ten-year old agreement.

A joint statement issued in the three European capitals on Thursday notified the UN Security Council that Tehran is “in significant non-performance of its commitments under the JCPoA” to give a 30-day notice “before the possible reestablishment of previously terminated United Nations Security Council resolutions.”

The E3 statement is patently an act of sophistry since it was the US which unilaterally abandoned the JCOPA in 2018 and the three European powers themselves have been remiss in ignoring their own commitments to lift the sanctions against Iran through the past 15-year period, which only had ultimately prompted Tehran to resume the uranium enrichment activity — although the Iranian side was ready to reinstate the JCOPA as recently as in December 2022.

A strange part of the E3 move is that they short-circuited the prescribed procedure in regard of the snapback mechanism with the intent to reduce the two other permanent member countries of the Security Council to be mere bystanders with no role whatsoever in the matter. Unsurprisingly, Russia and China have taken exception to this and in a lengthy statement on Friday, the Russian Foreign Ministry has demanded (with China’s backing) an extension of the time line by another six months by the Security Council as an interim measure so as to avoid a standoff with dangerous and tragic consequences.

Tehran has welcomed the Russia-China proposal as a “practical step.” Iran, of course, has explicitly warned that any such attempt by the E3 to reimpose the UN sanctions against it may compel it to reconsider its membership of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty.

It remains to be seen whether the E3 — or more precisely, the US-Israeli nexus which is the driving force behind the precipitate move — will be amenable to a compromise. All indications are that Israel with the full support of the Trump administration is spoiling for a fight with Iran and make a second attempt to force regime change in Tehran and the restoration of the erstwhile Pahlavi dynasty to replace the Islamic system that got established after the 1979 Islamic Revolution. Simply put, it is a make-or-break attempt by the US and Israel to bring about a geopolitical realignment in the West Asian region.

The US and Israel have drawn lessons out of the miserable failure of their first attempt in June to overthrow the Islamic system in Iran, and Israel suffered huge losses as Iran retaliated. This time around, the US and Israel seem to be preparing for a fight to the finish, although the outcome remains to be seen. Indeed, a protracted war may ensue. The US is rearming Israel with advanced weaponry. At some point, early enough in the war, a direct American intervention in some form can also be expected.

Unlike in June when the Trump administration in an elaborate ploy of deception lulled Tehran into a state of complacency when the Israeli attack began, this time around, Iran is on guard and has been strengthening its defenses. Make no mistake, Iran will fight back no matter what is takes. Iran is also getting help from Russia for beefing up its air defence system and there are reports that Russian advisors are helping Iran’s armed forces to augment their capability to resist the US-Israeli aggression.

Many western experts, including Alastair Crooke, have predicted that an Israeli attack on Iran can be expected sooner rather than later. The Israeli-American expectation could be that Russia’s military operations in Ukraine will have reached a climactic point by autumn which would almost certainly preclude any scope for Moscow to get involved in a West Asian conflict, and that, in turn, will give them a free hand to take the regime change agenda to its finish.

Besides, in a policy reversal, Iran has taken up the standing Russian offer to provide an integrated air defence system. Such a system will possibly be in position by the middle of next year or so and it is expected to be a force multiplier for Iran. Israel will most certainly try to attack Iran before the integrated system which is connected to Russian satellites becomes fully operational. It remains to be seen whether the Trump administration will be able to withstand Israeli pressure, given the Mossad’s alleged involvement in the Epstein scandal.

A West Asian war of titanic scale will be unprecedented. Apart from large scale loss of lives and destruction, the regional turmoil that ensues will also affect the surrounding regions — India in particular. The point is, an estimated 6 million Indians live in the Gulf region. Their safety and welfare will be in serious jeopardy if the Gulf states get sucked in to the war at some point.

The probability is high that Iran’s retaliation this time around may involve the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz through which tankers carry approximately 17 million barrels of oil each day, or 20 to 30 percent of the world’s total consumption. If that happens, oil price will sky rocket and India’s energy security, which is heavily dependent on oil imports, will be affected. India’s main sources of oil supplies are Russia (18-20%), Saudi Arabia (16-18%), UAE (8-10%) and the US (6-7%).

Clearly, if the oil supplies from the Gulf region get disrupted, India’s dependence on oil flows from Russia will only increase further. In fact, there will be a scramble for Russian oil and, paradoxically, Trump’s best-laid plans to hollow out “Putin’s war chest” will remain a pipe dream.

Significantly, according to Israel’s Kanal 13, Russia has evacuated its diplomatic personnel and their families in its embassy in Tel Aviv in anticipation of a “dramatic” change in the security situation and growing signs of an outbreak of hostilities between Israel and Iran.

https://www.indianpunchline.com/west-as ... oward-war/
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Re: Iran

Post by blindpig » Thu Sep 11, 2025 2:00 pm

Iran’s Stark Choice: War as the Lesser Loss
September 8, 2025

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A rocket launcher during a military drill in an undisclosed location in southern Iran, provided on August 21, 2025. Photo: Iranian army media office/HO/AFP.

By Khaled Barakat – Sep 2, 2025

“We have a moment to act decisively to end the Iranian influence in the region. 2026 is the year to integrate Israel into the region.”
—Lindsey Graham, speaking from Tel Aviv, August 29, 2025


Iran today confronts one of its most complex historical junctures since the Iran–Iraq war of the 1980s. Regional and international tensions are mounting as US, Europe, and the Israeli entity escalate pressure on Tehran within a comprehensive strategy to isolate the Islamic Republic, cripple its economy, and paralyze its regional and global capabilities, through sanctions as well as direct military threats.

US and European sanctions on Iran expand by the day. Trade routes are being tightly monitored. At the same time, efforts multiply to brand Iran as an “existential threat to regional and global security.” This signals a shift from mere economic pressure to a full campaign targeting the Republic politically and militarily.

But the assault does not stop at Tehran. It extends to its allies across the region: pressure on the resistance in Lebanon and Gaza; continued aggression and siege against liberated parts of Yemen; and attempts to encircle its partners in Iraq. Washington is pushing relentlessly to dismantle what it calls Iran’s “network of influence” and redraw the balance of power in ways that guarantee the Israeli entity’s security while deepening US control over West Asia. Supply lines stretching from Tehran to Beirut, Sanaa, and Baghdad face immense strain, while governments in Beirut and Baghdad are subjected to political and security pressure to sever logistical and financial arteries feeding Iran’s allies.

In Iraq specifically, Tehran faces one of the most complex rounds of this “undeclared” war. Washington and Tel Aviv are working openly to weaken the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF), a cornerstone of Iranian influence in the region. Born in the fight against ISIS, the PMF has since become a formidable military and political force, and a direct threat to US presence in Iraq and beyond.

Hence Washington is pushing to impose strict constraints on the PMF’s movements and isolate it from Iraqi sovereignty, pressuring Baghdad to curb its logistical and military capabilities and even dismantle some of its elite brigades, under the pretext of “restructuring the security forces.”

This trajectory converges with a broader US–European drive to disarm Hezbollah in Lebanon and other Iran-aligned forces across multiple fronts. Having failed to dismantle the resistance militarily in Lebanon and Gaza, Washington and Tel Aviv are shifting toward political and economic tools to enforce US’s “asymmetric deterrence” against Tehran’s influence. The doctrine is clear: what cannot be achieved by force must be achieved by greater force.

In Iraq, draft laws seek to curb weapons held outside the framework of state control. In Yemen, Ansar Allah faces US pressure to curtail its missile and naval capabilities, part of a comprehensive strategy designed to strip Iran’s allies of deterrent power while steadily cutting their supply lines.

Geopolitically, Iran is more encircled than at any point in recent history. To its north, the Azerbaijan–Armenia corridor has become a battleground for Moscow, Ankara, and Washington. The US and NATO are seeking to turn Baku into a pressure platform against Tehran, particularly by deepening military and intelligence cooperation between Azerbaijan and the Israeli entity.

This opens the door to establishing intelligence bases dangerously close to Iran’s northern border, multiplying direct threats and making the confrontation even more complex in the near future. Tehran’s concerns over the Caucasus are legitimate, and have only intensified after Washington hosted a summit between Armenia and Azerbaijan that yielded a so-called “peace agreement.” At its heart was the development of the Zangezur corridor under direct US supervision and protection, effectively granting Washington near-total military and economic dominance.

Internally, Iran faces an unprecedented escalation in intelligence warfare. In recent months, its security agencies have announced the dismantling of spy networks numbering in the hundreds, perhaps thousands, of operatives linked to Israeli and US intelligence. At the same time, the Iranian opposition abroad has been mobilized: arming small militant groups, pouring vast sums into media campaigns aimed to undermine the Republic’s legitimacy, and working to incite internal chaos.

Meanwhile, certain voices within Iran’s own elite, presenting themselves as “realists”, issue confused and hesitant statements that serve only to embolden Israeli aggression and weaken effort to defend and fortify the country.

All of this constitutes what can be called a “hybrid war” against Iran, waged simultaneously from outside and within the country, accompanied by a sweeping political and media campaign to reframe the “Iranian nuclear file” as a ready-made pretext for escalation and aggression. Western rhetoric has grown ever more hostile because of Iran’s refusal to capitulate.

Against this backdrop, Iran’s leadership faces stark choices. On one hand, continued restraint risks further erosion of economic, political, and security capabilities, along with the gradual loss of regional deterrence as the siege tightens. On the other hand, direct military confrontation, though costly, may ultimately prove the lesser loss. War, despite its dangers, has the potential to unify the domestic front, redraw deterrence equations, and prevent Washington and Tel Aviv from dismantling Iran’s influence piece by piece, on the road to dismantling Iran itself.

Iran’s greatest challenge is that time is not on its side. The US “maximum pressure” strategy may have failed to achieve its grand objectives in recent years, but it has delivered tactical gains for Washington and its allies; gains that could soon harden into existential threats for Tehran.

Even so, the Resistance Axis has demonstrated remarkable patience and resilience, particularly in Gaza, Beirut, and Sanaa. Meanwhile, the Israeli position has declined regionally and internationally. After October 7 and the genocidal war on Gaza, popular opinion across the region, and the world, shifted decisively toward the Resistance side and the option of full confrontation.

Today, the Israeli entity is mired in unprecedented internal disarray and strategic confusion, despite the “surplus of power” guaranteed by Washington. The carefully cultivated image of “poor little Israel,” long promoted by Western propaganda, has collapsed, exposing to global publics the racist and criminal nature of the Zionist project. On top of this comes the collapsed morale of the Israeli army and the strategic consequences of the 12-Day War against Iran, which starkly revealed the weaknesses at the core of Israel’s military apparatus.

The message Iran must convey to the world is: the price of war is steep, but the price of surrender is higher still. In a region undergoing rapid transformation, Tehran may conclude that war is not simply one option among many, but the least costly option in the face of a project designed to bleed it dry until nothing remains.

(al-akhbar)

https://orinocotribune.com/irans-stark- ... sser-loss/
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Re: Iran

Post by blindpig » Sun Sep 21, 2025 2:31 pm

Iran tested an ICBM
September 20, 6:37 PM

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According to an Iranian parliament member, Iran successfully tested an intercontinental ballistic missile two days ago.
Footage of the new missile test appeared online the day before yesterday. As military operations in July demonstrated, modern Iranian ballistic and hypersonic missiles are capable of penetrating Israeli and American missile defenses, which, given the presence of nuclear warheads, makes a missed strike fatal for the host country.

Following the reimposition of sanctions against Iran by Britain, Germany, and France (Russia and China will not support them), Iran is set to vote in parliament next week on withdrawing from the nuclear non-proliferation regime. This will entail further uranium enrichment with the option of producing nuclear warheads. Iran's current capacity to produce enriched uranium is unknown, as there is no precise data on the actual damage to the facilities in Natanz, Isfahan, and Fordow. Furthermore, the whereabouts of a large quantity of already enriched uranium are unknown, as Iran has issued highly contradictory statements about its removal or that the uranium is located underground at damaged facilities.

Iran essentially already has effective regional delivery systems, as demonstrated during the war with Israel. With nuclear warheads, the balance of power in the region would quickly shift.

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/10082293.html

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Re: Iran

Post by blindpig » Mon Sep 22, 2025 2:03 pm

[/b]Iran: Far More Than Just A Petrostate[/b]
Roger Boyd
Sep 22, 2025

In 1960 Iran’s population was 21.4 million, in 1970 28.5 million, in 1980 38.5 million, in 1990 55.8 million, in 2000 66.5 million, in 2010 75.4 million, in 2020 87.3 million and in 2025 it will be about 92.5 million. Its fertility rate has fallen to significantly below the replacement rate at 1.44, and the reducing number of fecund females entering the child-bearing years should lead to some stabilization in population. The much smaller population in the older age ranges though will keep the death rate lower than the birth rate into the 2030s.

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Even with a stabilization though, Iran’s population will be nearly five times its 1960 level. At purchasing power parity (PPP), Iran’s GDP per capita is US$18,442 according to the World Bank, which in inflation adjusted terms is 8.6% above the previous peak of 2011 prior to the collapse in oil prices and the brutal US sanctions regime. This can be seen as a “lost decade” or instead, as an incredible achievement in the face of falling oil prices, US “maximum pressure” sanctions designed to wreck the economy and a 23% larger population. In 2017, Iran had already recovered from the fall in oil prices in PPP GDP per capita terms, only to be hammered by the US sanctions.

Iran’s GDP grew 3.3% in 2020, 4.7% in 2021, 3.8% in 2022, 5% in 2023, 3% in 2024. It was this continued growth, aided somewhat by the Chinese purchases of Iranian oil, that was such a threat to Israel and in turn to the US. The “maximum pressure” sanctions had not only utterly failed to produce a regime change, but also failed even to stop growth in GDP per capita. Iran was certainly not cowed, hence the failed attack upon it this year where it showed its ability to destroy the Israeli economy and security apparatus if forced into a corner. So now the Europeans, who had never negotiated in good faith with respect to the US sanctions, “snapped back” the sanctions relief gained under the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) that they had never really provided.

The present is very different to 2015, with a fully sanctioned Russia happy to do business with Iran and becoming more tightly aligned with the country. It was Russia that helped to so rapidly rebuild Iran’s air defences after the initial Israeli attack. At the same time, a much stronger China has invested heavily in Iran and is also, it now seems, ready to provide arms to its its alliance partners. Iran has also displayed its own manufacturing abilities within its Military Industrial Complex, with the ability to produce its own large long range and hypersonic missile arsenal as well as a vast array of other military equipment. Both Russia and China can supply the areas where it is lacking, for example with advanced fighter-bombers and air defence systems.

Iran’s oil exports started to increase rapidly in the 1960s, under the Shah that had been installed in the 1953 UK/UK coup which kept in place the highly exploitive sharing of oil revenues between Iran and foreign interests. By the mid 1970s, Iran was exporting 6 million barrels of oil per day and benefitting from the large jump in the price of oil; although much of these benefits were taken by the foreign-dominated oil consortium established in 1953. It was not until the revolution of 1979 that Iran fully took control of its own oil resources.

The Iran-Iraq War of 1980 to 1988, initiated by Iraq and supported by the West, created a huge amount of economic and social disruption. Iran had many hundreds of thousands of military deaths, together with about 100,000 civilian deaths. In addition, up to 200,000 Iranians suffered long term health problems from the use of poisoned gas by the Iraqi military (with the precursor chemicals supplied by the US). The Iranian revolution survived this, and US sanctions imposed by Carter and Reagan. Those sanctions were expanded in the 1990s, and even more in the 2000s and early 2010s until the signing of the JCPOA in 2015 which the first Trump administration then walked away from in 2018 to impose “maximum pressure” sanctions.

Iranian oil exports started to recover from the Iran-Iraq War in the 1990s, to about 2 million barrels per day. By 2010, in the face of widespread sanctions, they had risen to about 2.5 mbpd. They fell to under 0.5 mbpd in 2020 under the “maximum pressure” sanctions, but increased to 1 mbpd in 2022, 1.4 mbpd in 2023, and 1.85 mbpd in 2024; aided by China’s increasing imports of Iranian oil. Iran does not export natural gas, as all of its production is required for domestic consumption. With a population of over 90 million, such export volumes are not the main driver of economic growth. From 1990 to the present day, with constantly sanctions-limited oil exports, Iranian PPP GDP per capita has nearly doubled while the population has also nearly doubled. This shows a much more self-dependent and resilient economic structure than the Gulf Cooperation Council states, or even Iraq; with non-oil GDP capable of growing at 2%-3% a year and the non-oil sector responsible for about half of exports.

The US has shown itself to be incapable of stopping China from importing both Russian and Iranian oil with the threat of sanctions. The trade war of 2025 has displayed the deep dependence of the US upon China for critical imports, as well as the ability of China to disconnect from the US if required. At the same time the “mother of all sanctions” placed upon Russia has removed any impediments to it openly trading with Iran. This produces the possibility of the greater development of Iran’s non-oil sector through such things as the International North South Transport Corridor that links the Iranian ports of Bandera Abbas and Chahabar with the Russian port of Astrakhan that sits at the southern end of the huge Volga River transport system to the Russian interior and rail transport to Moscow. Facilitating transport from the Arabian Sea to Russia and onto Europe, bypassing the Suez Canal.

In addition, China has committed to major investments in Iran’s oil and gas sector through the 2021 strategic agreement. China has been tentative in fulfilling this agreement though in the face of possible US secondary sanctions, but its increasingly confident stance with respect to US tariffs and sanctions (and the US realization of the utter disaster that secondary sanctions would be for the US economy) may produce a much less tentative approach. The stronger China becomes with respect to the US, the better for Iran. A nation that has one of the lowest oil production costs in the world, at below US$2 per barrel and does not have the colossal extra “social stability” costs that a country such as Saudi Arabia has. Together with its diversified economy, and its historically sanctions-contained oil exports, it will be many times more resilient with respect to a secular move to lower oil prices. As an important ally of China within BRINCISTAN (Belarus, Russia, Iran, North Korea, China, Iraq and the '“Stans”), it may also receive preferential treatment as China reduces its oil imports; especially when China is heavily investing in Iranian oil production.

The vast majority of purported polls of Iranian political opinion are heavily politically tainted, with many bordering on blatant propaganda. What can be said is that the government has significantly more legitimacy, based in religion and democratic processes, than the governments of the Gulf Cooperation States. The rejection of the JCPOA by the first Trump administration, and the more recent economic, financial, and military attacks of Israel and the US will have achieved what they achieved in Russia; a rallying around the state, a move away from positive views of the West and a hardening of nationalist resolve. The actions also facilitated the identification and elimination/jailing of traitorous groups, and a general loss of esteem of more liberal groups. Western thoughts of Iranian regime change in Iran may be as delusional as those of regime change in Russia or China.

The other major challenge to Iran is anthropogenic climate change, with two decades of drought conditions greatly exacerbated this year with yet lower rainfall and the mountain snow pack at historic lows. But even with this, the authorities are acceptably managing the issue. Water consumption per capita in Iran’s capital of 10 million people is considerably higher than global levels, and can be substantially reduced through improvements in infrastructure and modern conservation methods.

Iran has six distinct climate zones, due to its complex and mountainous geography, and significant seasonal changes.

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From Najafi & Alizedah 2023

In the southern coastal plains of the Caspian sea, the climate is mild and humid with the highest level of rainfall in the country, and this is close to where the capital city of Tehran is located. Most of the population lives in and around Tehran, and in the more fertile west of the country where where the climate is cool and sub-humid. Together with the cold and temperate semi-arid northwest and the warm and semi-arid northeast. Less in the warm and arid south west and much less in the warm and hyperarid southeast and central areas.

The summer high temperatures in Tehran are in the mid thirties (degrees centigrade) and in the winter in the single digits. Climate change enhanced temperatures may greatly affect the much less dense populations on the souther coast, but not threaten the major areas of population. It may also significantly reduce water availability, but the country has more than enough scope for water conservation to manage that fall. Especially with a population growth that is about 0.5% per annum and falling. It is many of the other states of the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) that may be existentially threatened by the combination of climate change and falling oil exports, not Iran. It may of course experience significant difficulties, but nowhere near those of the GCC states and Egypt etc.

https://rogerboyd.substack.com/p/iran-f ... petrostate

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Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Vows “Decisive Response” to any Aggression

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Military parade in Tehran. Photo: EFE.

September 22, 2025 Hour: 5:15 am

The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) warned Iran’s “enemies”—particularly the United States and Israel—that any new act of aggression against Iranian interests and national sovereignty will be met with a “decisive” response.

“Any new enemy miscalculation would trigger a decisive, lesson-filled response,” the IRGC declared on Sunday, September 21, marking the start of Sacred Defense Week, which commemorates the anniversary of the war with Iraq in the 1980s.

In its statement, the IRGC highlighted the readiness of its intelligence units, ground forces, naval, aerospace, missile, and cyber defense divisions. This show of capabilities, it said, demonstrates that Iran is prepared to defend itself against any threat, regardless of the economic sanctions and pressures it faces from the United States and the European Union.

The elite military force stressed that the 45th anniversary of the eight-year war comes shortly after the illegal Israeli-American aggression against Iran—an episode that, according to the IRGC, has only strengthened national unity.

Between June 13 and 24, 2025, the Israeli military carried out multiple attacks on civilian residences, government buildings, and Iran’s nuclear facilities, killing a total of 1,060 people.

In its message, the IRGC insisted that Iranian forces have achieved a level of self-sufficiency and growth in military and defense capabilities that allow them to deter their enemies. This was demonstrated by retaliatory strikes against Israel, which breached the so-called “Iron Dome” and targeted the Zionist state’s strategic facilities.

https://www.telesurenglish.net/irans-re ... ggression/
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