Alastair Crooke
April 7, 2025
What is understood now is that ‘we’re no longer playing chess’. There are no rules anymore.
Trump’s ultimatum to Iran? Colonel Doug Macgregor compares the Trump ultimatum to Iran to that which Austria-Hungary delivered to Serbia in 1914: An offer, in short, that ‘could not be refused’. Serbia accepted nine out of the ten demands. But it refused one – and Austria-Hungary immediately declared war.
On 4 February, shortly after his Inauguration, President Trump signed a National Security Presidential Memorandum (NSPM); that is to say, a legally binding directive requiring government agencies to carry out the specified actions precisely.
The demands are that Iran should be denied a nuclear weapon; denied inter-continental missiles, and denied too other asymmetric and conventional weapons capabilities. All these demands go beyond the NPT and the existing JCPOA. To this end, the NSPM directs maximum economic pressure be imposed; that the U.S. Treasury act to drive Iran’s oil exports to zero; that the U.S. work to trigger JCPOA Snapback of sanctions; and that Iran’s “malign influence abroad” – its “proxies” – be neutralised.
The UN sanctions snapback expires in October, so time is short to fulfil the procedural requirements to Snapback. All this suggests why Trump and Israeli officials give Spring as the deadline to a negotiated agreement.
Trump’s ultimatum to Iran appears to be moving the U.S. down a path to where war is the only outcome, as occurred in 1914 – an outcome which ultimately triggered WW1.
Might this just be Trump bluster? Possibly, but it does sound as if Trump is issuing legally binding demands such that he must expect cannot be met. Acceptance of Trump’s demands would leave Iran neutered and stripped of its sovereignty, at the very least. There is an implicit ‘tone’ to these demands too, that is one of threatening and expecting regime change in Iran as its outcome.
It may be Trump bluster, but the President has ‘form’ (past convictions) on this issue. He has unabashedly hewed to the Netanyahu line on Iran that the JCPOA (or any deal with Iran) was ‘bad’. In May 2014, Trump withdrew the U.S. from the JCPOA at Netanyahu’s behest and instead issued a new set of 12 demands to Iran – including permanently and verifiably abandoning its nuclear programme in perpetuity and ceasing all uranium enrichment.
What is the difference between those earlier Trump demands and those of this February? Essentially they are the same, except today he says: If Iran “doesn’t make a deal, there will be bombing. It will be bombing the likes of which they have never seen before”.
Thus, there is both history, and the fact that Trump is surrounded – on this issue at least – by a hostile cabal of Israeli Firsters and Super Hawks. Witkoff is there, but is poorly grounded on the issues. Trump too, has shown himself virtually totalitarian in terms of any and all criticism of Israel in American Academia. And in Gaza, Lebanon and Syria, he is fully supportive of Netanyahu’s far-right provocative and expansionist agenda.
These present demands regarding Iran also run counter to the 25 March 2025 latest annual U.S. Intelligence Threat Assessment that Iran is NOT building a nuclear weapon. This Intelligence Assessment is effectively disregarded. A few days before its release, Trump’s National Security Adviser, Mike Waltz clearly stated that the Trump Administration is seeking the “full dismantlement” of Iran's nuclear energy program: “Iran has to give up its program in a way that the entire world can see”, Waltz said. “It is time for Iran to walk away completely from its desire to have a nuclear weapon”.
On the one hand, it seems that behind these ultimata stands a President made “pissed off and angry” at his inability to end the Ukraine war almost immediately – as he first mooted – together with pressures from a bitterly fractured Israel and a volatile Netanyahu to compress the timeline for the speedy ‘finishing off’ of the Iranian ‘regime’ (which, it is claimed, has never been weaker). All so that Israel can normalise with Lebanon –and even Syria. And with Iran supposedly ‘disabled’, pursue implementation of the Greater Israel project to be normalised across the Middle East.
Which, on the other hand, will enable Trump to pursue the ‘long-overdue’ grand pivot to China. (And China is energy-vulnerable – regime change in Tehran would be a calamity, from the Chinese perspective).
To be plain, Trump’s China strategy needs to be in place too, in order to advance Trump’s financial system re-balancing plans. For, should China feel itself besieged, it could well act as a spoiler to Trump's re-working of the American and global financial system.
The Washington Post reports on a ‘secret’ Pentagon memo from Hegseth that “China [now] is the Department’s sole pacing threat, [together] with denial of a Chinese fait accompli seizure of Taiwan — while simultaneously defending the U.S. homeland”.
The ‘force planning construct’ (a concept of how the Pentagon will build and resource the armed services to take on perceived threats) will only consider conflict with Beijing when planning contingencies for a major power war, the Pentagon memo says, leaving the threat from Moscow largely to be attended by European allies.
Trump wants to be powerful enough credibly to threaten China militarily, and therefore wants Putin to agree speedily to a ceasefire in Ukraine, so that military resources can quickly be moved to the China theatre.
On his flight back to Washington last Sunday evening, Trump reiterated his annoyance toward Putin, but added “I don’t think he’s going to go back on his word, I’ve known him for a long time. We’ve always gotten along well”. Asked when he wanted Russia to agree to a ceasefire, Trump said there was a “psychological deadline” – “If I think they’re tapping us along, I will not be happy about it”.
Trump’s venting against Russia may, perhaps, have an element of reality-TV to it. For his domestic audience, he needs to be perceived as bringing ‘peace through strength’ – to keep up the Alpha-Male appearance, lest the truth of his lack of leverage over Putin becomes all too apparent for the American public and to the world.
Part of the reason for Trump’s frustration too, may be his cultural formation as a New York businessman; that a deal is about first dominating the negotiations, and then quickly ‘splitting the difference’. This, however, is not how diplomacy works. The transactional approach also reflects deep conceptual flaws.
The Ukraine ceasefire process is stalled, not because of Russian intransigence, but rather because Team Trump has determined that achieving a settlement in Ukraine comes firstly through insisting on a unilateral and immediate ceasefire – without introducing temporary governance to enable elections in Ukraine, nor addressing the root causes of the conflict. And secondly, because Trump rushed in, without listening to what the Russians were saying, and/or without hearing it.
Now that initial pleasantries are over, and Russia is saying flatly that current ‘ceasefire’ proposals simply are inadequate and unacceptable, Trump becomes angry and lashes out at Putin, saying that 25% tariffs on Russian oil could happen ANY moment.
Putin and Iran are both now under ‘deadlines’ (a ‘psychological’ one in Putin’s case), so as to enable Trump to proceed with credibly threatening China to come to a ‘deal’ soon – as the global economy is already wobbling.
Trump fumes and spits fire. He tries to hurry matters along by making a big show of bombing the Houthis, boasting that they have been hit hard, with many Houthi leaders killed. Yet, such callousness towards Yemeni civilian deaths sits awkwardly with his claimed heart-rendering empathy for the thousands of ‘handsome’ Ukrainian young men needlessly dying on the front lines.
It all becomes reality-TV.
Trump threatens Iran with “bombing [the] likes of which they have never seen before” over an ultimatum that likely cannot be met. Simply put, this threat (which includes the possible use of nuclear weapons) is not given because Iran poses a threat to the U.S. It does not. But it is given as an option. A plan; a ‘thing’ placed calmly on the geo-political table and intended to spread fear. “Cities full of children, women, and the elderly to be killed: Not morally wrong. Not a war crime”.
No. Just the ‘reality’ that Trump takes the Iranian nuclear programme to be an existential threat to Israel. And that the U.S. is committed to using military force to eliminate existential threats to Israel.
This is the heart to Trump’s ultimatum. It owes to the fact that it is Israel – not America, and not the U.S. intelligence community – that views Iran as an existential threat. Professor Hudson, speaking with direct knowledge of the background policy (see here and here) says, “it's NOT just that Israel as we know it – must be safe and secure and free from terrorism”. That's Trump and his Team’s ‘line’; that's the Israeli and its supporters narrative too. “But the mentality [behind it] is different”, Hudson says.
There are some 2-3 million Israelis who see themselves as destined to control all of what we now call the Middle East, the Levant, what some call West Asia – and others call “Greater Israel”. These Zionists believe that they are mandated by God to take this land – and that all who oppose them are Amalek. They believe the Amalek to be consumed with an overwhelming desire to kill Jews, and who therefore should be annihilated.
The Torah records the story of Amalek: Parshat Ki Teitzei, when the Torah states, machoh timcheh et zecher Amalek—that we must erase Amalek’s memory. “Every year we [Jews] are obligated to read – not how God will destroy Amalek – but how we should destroy Amalek”. (Though many Jews puzzle how to reconcile this mitzvah with their ingrained contrarian values of compassion and mercy).
This commandment in the Torah is in fact one of the key factors that lies at the root of Israel’s obsession with Iran. Israelis perceive Iran as an Amalek tribe plotting to kill Jews. No deal, no compromise therefore is possible. It is also, of course, about Iran’s strategic challenge (albeit secular) to the Israeli state.
And what has made the Trump ultimatum so pressing in Washington’s view – apart from the China-pivot considerations – was the assassination of Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah. That assassination marked a big shift in U.S. thinking, because, before that, we inhabited an era of careful calculation; incremental moves up an escalator ladder. What is understood now is that ‘we're no longer playing chess’. There are no rules anymore.
Israel (Netanyahu) is going hell-for-leather on all fronts to mitigate the divisions and turmoil at home in Israel through igniting the Iranian front – even though this course might well threaten Israel’s destruction.
This latter prospect marks the reddest of ‘red lines’ to ingrained Deep State structures.
https://strategic-culture.su/news/2025/ ... ot-be-met/
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Iran warns six regional countries against aiding potential US attack: Report
Tehran has affirmed its willingness to engage in indirect negotiations with the US concerning its nuclear program
News Desk
APR 6, 2025
(Photo credit: Olivier Douliery/AFP)
A senior Iranian official said that Tehran has warned six countries they will face "severe consequences" if they support Washington in a military attack against the Islamic Republic, Reuters reported on 6 April.
"Iran has issued warnings to Iraq, Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Qatar, Turkey, and Bahrain that any support for a US attack on Iran, including the use of their airspace or territory by the US military during the attack, will be considered a hostile act," the official stated while speaking to Reuters on condition of anonymity.
The official stressed that such an action "would have severe consequences for those countries," adding that "Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has placed the Iranian armed forces on high alert."
Spokespersons for the governments of Iraq, Kuwait, the UAE, Qatar, and Bahrain did not immediately respond to requests for comment.
The Turkish Foreign Ministry was quoted as saying it was unaware of the Iranian warning, but that such messages could be conveyed through other channels.
On 30 March, US President Donald Trump threatened Iran with bombing and secondary tariffs if Tehran did not come to an agreement with Washington over its nuclear program.
"If they don't make a deal, there will be bombing," Trump said in a telephone interview. "It will be bombing the likes of which they have never seen before."
The senior official speaking with Reuters added that Iran rejects US President Donald Trump's demand for direct talks over its nuclear program. However, it wants to continue indirect negotiations through Oman, where indirect negotiations between the two countries have taken place in the past.
"Indirect talks offer a chance to evaluate Washington's seriousness about a political solution with Iran," said the official.
In addition to issuing verbal threats against Iran, Trump has ordered a major military build-up in the region, including dispatching a squadron of B-52 bombers to the US base at Diego Garcia in the Indian Ocean.
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi confirmed on Sunday that "the conditions for resuming talks between Tehran and Washington regarding Iran's nuclear program are based on the principle of trust between the two countries," he said.
"We are ready to continue dialogue regarding our nuclear program and the lifting of sanctions against Iran, based on the logic of confidence-building," Araghchi said in statements reported by Iran's Fars News Agency.
Following Trump's threat, Ali Hajizadeh, the commander of the Aerospace Division of the Revolutionary Guards (IRGC), directly threatened US bases in West Asia.
“The Americans have around ten military bases in the region – at least near Iran – and 50,000 troops,” Hajizadeh told Iranian state TV on Monday.
“It’s like they’re sitting in a glass house. And when you’re in a glass house, you don’t throw stones at others.”
Iran has long rejected claims it seeks to produce a nuclear weapon, saying such a move is un-Islamic due to the threat such weapons pose to civilians.
However, analysts suggest Iran could quickly develop nuclear weapons if US and Israeli threats to bomb and invade the country continue.
https://thecradle.co/articles/iran-warn ... ack-report
As warned, Trump "Negotiations" with Iran Were Cover for Major US-Israeli Strike
Iran can retaliate and give US the war it desperately seeks to provoke, although will likely continue striking Iran regardless, it's out of time and all bets are off;
Statement by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps following the first missile strike on central Tel Aviv
In response to the aggression and criminal actions of the terrorist, bloodthirsty and child-killing Zionist regime, which attacked areas of the Islamic Republic this morning, killing senior commanders of the Armed Forces, eminent scholars and innocent citizens, especially defenseless children, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, as the protective and offensive hand of the Iranian nation, relying on the Divine power, the wise guidance of the Supreme Commander (may Allah protect him) and the unanimous support of the noble people of Iran, carried out a crushing and precise response against dozens of military installations and air bases of the occupation Zionist regime in the captured territories as part of Operation True Promise 3, under the sacred motto of “O Ali, son of Abu Talib (peace be upon him!)” on the blessed night of Ghadir.
(@PressTV) June 12, 2025
