Footnotes from the Ukrainian "Crisis"; New High-Points in Cynicism Part V

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Re: Footnotes from the Ukrainian "Crisis"; New High-Points in Cynicism Part V

Post by blindpig » Sun Sep 28, 2025 11:57 am

The Price of Proxy Warfare
Posted by @nsanzo ⋅ 09/28/2025

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“Europe has a vital, if paradoxical, role to play. It must now significantly increase its level of aid as the US withdraws from leadership. As Ukraine’s main financier, it will have more leverage over the Kiev government, and it must use it to prevent a democratic backsliding,” writes The Economist this week in an article asking “how to fix Ukraine’s rot”—a hardly flattering headline for Kiev as it tries to present itself as the strong country that, as Trump claims, can, with EU help, defeat the Russian paper tiger .

“Putin, like a classic Russian political gas , tries to fill every available space. Within his small frame lie the colossal ambitions of an emperor of the universe. He wants it all: all the power, all the wealth, all the land, all the servile people, not only in his own state, but in every place where he can achieve his power,” said Mikhail Podolyak, taking advantage of the fact that the official narrative of the week, describing Russia as a collapsed country, coincides with his arrogant discourse. The advisor to the President's Office added that “the war is killing Russia, but Putin, like an addict, cannot contain himself. Everyone sees it, everyone understands: Putin will have to be overthrown collectively.” Russia is destroyed, a “gas station without gas,” as former Ukrainian diplomat Maria Drutska mocked, but Ukraine needs collective assistance, and the European Union demands that the United States collaborate in the task of defeating Moscow with more than just constant arms shipments. Despite the obvious problems caused by both the war and the coercive measures imposed by the West, Russia continues to finance the maintenance of its state, including its army, which it supplies with equipment produced by its own industry or purchased commercially abroad. Unlike Ukraine, Moscow lacks the external lifeline, without which kyiv could never have continued fighting.

The haughty and triumphalist rhetoric, deeply contemptuous of Russia and its people, contrasts sharply with the rhetoric Zelensky uses when demanding funding from his allies. A chameleon-like figure, the Ukrainian president is capable of acting as the proud leader of a united homeland on the verge of expelling its aggressor and guarantor of continental security, but also as a worried leader for whom any assistance is insufficient and any reduction could mean imminent defeat. Contradictions are part of any speech, but sometimes they are rampant. In his speech at the UN, Zelensky used the audience of heads of state and government, and especially advisors, that the General Assembly rostrum implies to promote Ukraine's arms production sector. However, the Ukrainian president never misses an opportunity to demand more funding for the war from his allies. Ukraine boasts of its strength, but it always needs more support—economic and military—from its European allies and its American patron, from whom it demands materials that are not manufactured domestically, either in Ukraine or in European countries. Little by little, Ukraine has been acquiring the miracle weapons it has demanded at every turn, but they have never yielded the expected results, so the delivery has been followed by reproaches of excessive delay or insufficient quantities. Defeating a paper tiger with a collapsed economy and which, since the spring of 2022, had been announced as running out of missiles, has turned out to be more complicated than European bureaucrats expected.

“To further increase production, Ukraine needs more money, which it sorely lacks. Olena Bilousova, a defense industry expert at the Kyiv School of Economics, said that Ukraine had the industrial capacity to produce $35 billion worth of military equipment a year, but was only producing up to about $15 billion and could not afford more. “The issue of financing is a bottleneck for our defense industry,” Ms. Bilousova said in a July interview with The New York Times . Curiously, despite its libertarian, deeply privatizing, and antisocial economic ideology, the Zelensky government now suffers from the problem that Margaret Thatcher attributed to socialism, saying that “eventually, you run out of other people's money.”

When requesting an increase in Western and NATO funding for Ukraine, Kiev often uses three arguments, sometimes used interchangeably: the possibility of victory due to a small increase in funding, the risk of defeat if this does not happen, and, above all, the need to "shorten the war," an objective it has never actually stated, but which is useful in crafting its narrative. Ukraine has made no secret of its willingness to continue fighting as long as necessary and , to do so, demands support, but the selective reading of the facts and the press's refusal to highlight the contradictions in its rhetoric allow this to currently be the focus of its narrative.

“I hope we will end this war,” Volodymyr Zelensky recently stated, aware that this is a euphemism for his allies achieving for Ukraine the conditions that kyiv and its European allies have set as red lines, something that is currently impossible. “Plan A is to end the war, Plan B is $120 billion. That's it. This is a big problem. I'm not saying that, in peacetime, during a ceasefire, or within the framework of security guarantees, we will need the same amount of money for ten years. But in any case, you must understand the magnitude of this problem,” he continued, putting forward the figure he expects to have annually to wage the war. According to the Ukrainian president, who allocates more than half of the country's total expenditures to the war in his budget, kyiv is capable of paying half of that amount, but needs another $60 billion annually as long as the battle continues. The subtext of Zelensky's speech is clear: it is more efficient to make a single major effort to defeat Russia and usher in peace on its terms than to continue the war of attrition, for which Ukraine demands amounts beyond any reasonable argument. With this figure, Ukraine is demanding a war budget similar to that Russia has for its entire military expenditure: $135 billion by 2025, with which it must, for example, maintain its nuclear weapons (a cost of around 8-10% of that expenditure in previous years).

However, calls for more assistance and funding are not limited to the war. Hardships for the Ukrainian refugee population are increasing in neighboring countries, especially Poland, which is keen for at least some of them to return to their country. Kiev is trying to facilitate the return of its growing diaspora in Europe, which would represent an additional cost for state coffers that subsist only thanks to the constant injection of funding from Brussels. "Ukraine seeks funds for its defense and basic social spending," was the headline of an article published by EFE this week . "Ukraine faces the challenge of securing funds for its defense and basic social spending in 2026, as dependence on international aid remains significant and the government is looking for ways to increase soldiers' salaries and expand national military production," it wrote in its opening statement. Although war is currently the raison d'être of the Ukrainian state, it does not represent all the expenditure, nor the only opportunity to ask for more support from its allies. “For the first time in two years, the monthly minimum wage (currently €164) and basic social security benefits will increase by 8%, only partially offsetting the impact of inflation on Ukrainians’ increasingly eroded incomes,” adds EFE , which insists, sounding like a Ukrainian government press release, that “financing these basic expenses, along with other state outlays on education and healthcare, will cost around €40.8 billion and will depend on the timeliness and volume of international support.”

“Ukraine will need to obtain €38.7 billion from external sources such as the European Union (EU) Ukraine Facility, the G7 initiative, and funds from the International Monetary Fund (IMF). According to Roksolana Pidlasa, chairwoman of the Parliament's Budget Committee, €15.4 billion of this sum remains unfunded,” EFE continues , noting that much of the financial assistance will come in the form of loans, not grants, which will increase public debt to 106% of GDP. Absolutely unsustainable, this debt is not the main concern in Ukraine, whose priorities are clear and do not involve focusing on an unpayable debt for which it hopes not to have to answer.

Kiev, which also complains that the funds provided by the allies for basic expenses cannot be used for defense, thus puts a price on the proxy war. $60 billion for the war and €38.7 billion (a portion already covered by the European Union) are the amounts Ukraine expects to rely on annually to preserve the status quo , a total of $105.288 billion. This amount is absolutely impossible to sustain in the long run, but for which Ukraine always has the same solution: the expropriation, actually theft, of Russian public and private assets seized by the European Union in February 2022

https://slavyangrad.es/2025/09/28/el-pr ... rra-proxy/

Google Translator

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From Cassad's Telegram account:

Colonelcassad
The main statements made by Lavrov at the press conference following his speech at the UN General Assembly:

- Lavrov is confident that the assessments of Putin's initiative on the New START will come when the "fuss of the high-level week" of the UN General Assembly subsides.

- The range of the drones, the wreckage of which could have fallen on the territory of Poland, is less than the distance from the Russian border to the territory of this country;

- The Russian Federation never directs its UAVs or missiles at the EU or NATO states;

- If attempts are made from outside to shoot down any object in the airspace of the Russian Federation, "these people will seriously regret it";

- Europe has turned diplomacy into courting people from Washington in order to continue the "Biden path";

- The head of the Russian Foreign Ministry is surprised that none of the Western journalists are even trying to find out the "details of Bucha";

- A "trap" was left for Iran in the text of the nuclear deal, despite the fact that Tehran did not and does not intend to violate its obligations;

- The Russian Federation does not see the US administration deviating from the course of honest dialogue;

- The situation in the Middle East is extremely explosive, with the fuses already blown;

- Counting on a return to the 2022 borders for Ukraine would be politically blind;

- Lavrov pointed out the dominance of NATO representatives in UN leadership positions;

- The Minister confirmed Putin's visit to India in December;

- There are those in Europe who are "preparing a war against the Russian Federation";

- Lavrov stated that on September 27 he sent a letter to the UN Secretary-General about the legal invalidity and non-implementation of the decision to reinstate UN Security Council sanctions against Iran.

***

Colonelcassad
Lavrov, addressing Western journalists at a UN press conference, said,

"Aren't you interested in knowing who these people were [in Bucha], whose bodies were shown, what their names are, who they were?"

The Russian Foreign Minister noted that none of them had conducted an investigation into the killings in Bucha, despite having requested one a year ago.

According to the minister, Russia had submitted a request to the Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights to publish the names of the dead, but the secretariat's lawyers ruled that disclosing this information was inappropriate .

https://t.me/s/boris_rozhin

Google Translator

******

(Not-So) Brief Frontline Report – September 27th, 2025

Report by Marat Khairullin and Mikhail Popov.
Zinderneuf
Sep 27, 2025

Message from the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation: "Units of the 'West' Group decisively liberated the settlement of Derilovo in the Donetsk People's Republic." (Marked by a Russian flag on the map.)

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ЛБС 20.4.2025=Line of Combat Contact April 20th, 2025. Зона Активности=Zone of Activity.

On the map of the southern (Oskol) section of the Kupyansk direction, attention is drawn to the Borovaya salient of the Armed Forces of Ukraine with flanks at the settlements of Senkovo (left) and Novoselovka (right), resting on the Oskol River. North of Senkovo, a well-formed Kupyansk salient is visible.

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As early as June, the enemy withdrew its reserves as far back as the left bank of the Oskol River and deployed them along the Borovaya - Rubtsy line, covering the right flank of this line with a group of the Armed Forces of Ukraine occupying positions in the area of Zarechnoe - Kolodezi - Shandrigolovo (Shandryholovo).

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We have not looked into the plans of the command of both sides, but from the configuration of the line of combat contact it is clear that the Russian Armed Forces, cutting the right flank of the Armed Forces of Ukraine along the Zelenaya Dolina - Rubtsy line, with access to the crossings near the settlement of Oskol and cutting off the Oskol section from Kupyansk near the crossings at Senkovo, split the two zones and form encirclements of these salients. In this case, the defensive advantage of the Armed Forces of Ukraine relying on the Oskol River becomes a problem for them, as the river turns into a natural obstacle for maneuvering forces and means in the operational depth of defense and complicates the supply of the Borovaya salient.

To contain the advance of the Russian Armed Forces in the direction of Zelenaya Dolina - Rubtsy, the enemy created a force grouping in the area of Zarechnoe - Kolodezi - Shandrigolovo - Drobyshevo - Liman, which, presumably, was supposed to deliver a flanking strike to the advancing units of the Russian army in the direction of Stavki - Zelenaya Dolina - Redkodub.

Understanding the enemy's plan, the command of the Russian Armed Forces, since mid-summer, began implementing measures to secure the direction towards Rubtsy: expanding the wedge "tip" at the settlement of Zelenaya Dolina and eliminating the threat of a flanking strike. The bridgehead created after the liberation of Zelenaya Dolina was expanded on the right flank to the settlement of Redkodub, and on the left to the settlement of Srednee. The settlement of Kolodezi was liberated, and by pressuring the Stavki area, the logistics of the Armed Forces of Ukraine were disrupted. Offensive actions southeast near the settlements of Kirovsk (Zarechnoe) and Yampol restrict the maneuvering of enemy units along the line of combat contact in the area of Zarechnoe - Shandrigolovo - Drobyshevo - Liman. On the left flank, the clearing of Armed Forces of Ukraine positions along the left bank of the Nitrius River began: from the settlement of Srednee to Shandrigolovo and Drobyshevo.

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ЛБС 01.11.2024=Line of Combat Contact November 1st, 2024. ЛБС 01.01.2025=Line of Combat Contact January 1st, 2025. Зона Активности=Zone of Activity.

Today, September 27, the settlement of Derilovo (49°04′01″N 37°43′45″E, about 100 residents), located opposite the crossings over the Nitrius River near a major defense node of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the settlement of Novoselovka, was liberated. Clearing the line Karpovka - Novoselovka ensures the Russian Armed Forces' access to the settlement of Rubtsy with the cutting of its logistics in this area along the road and railway routes Rubtsy - Senkovo along the Oskol River channel (refer back to the first map to see the railway).

The Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation reports: "Units of the 'South' Group of forces have improved their position along the front line and liberated the settlement of Maiskoe in the Donetsk People's Republic."

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ЛБС 17.9.2024=Line of Combat Contact September 17th, 2024. Участок Активности=Area of Activity.

In the northern sector of the Donetsk direction, a deep encirclement of the city of Konstantinovka from the north is being formed. After the liberation of the settlement of Chasov Yar, the Russian Armed Forces are persistently "biting into" the defense node of the Ukrainian Armed Forces at Fedorovka-Belokuzminovka-Verolyubovka, which secures a network of bypass roads and the Kramatorsk-Chasov Yar railway branch. After the liberation of the settlements of Markovo and Fedorovka on September 5, the wedge began to expand southward along the Ukrainian defensive line built with reliance on the ravines Strashny Yar and Chasov Yar.

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Today, the settlement of Maiskoe (48°37′32″N 37°46′39″E, about 100 residents), located at the center of the watershed of the ravines Beliy Yar (White Yar) and Chasov Yar, was liberated. For the Ukrainian positions relying on the Strashny Yar ravine, a threat of flanking encirclement has arisen.

The Russian Ministry of Defense reports: "Units of the 'East' Group continued advancing deep into the enemy's defense and liberated the settlement of Stepovoe in the Dnepropetrovsk region."

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In the southern sector of the Donetsk direction, the Russian Armed Forces continue their offensive on the defense area of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in Vishnevoe with the aim of "cutting off" the Pokrovskoe - Vishnevoe - Uspenovka - Gulyaipole (Hulyayipole) line (Pokrovskoe is just north of Danilovka and Vishnevoe above where the map cuts off; I marked the discussed line in red).

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ЛБС 31.5.2025=Line of Combat Contact May 31st, 2025. Участки Активности=Area of Activity.

Today, September 27, the Russian Armed Forces liberated the settlement of Stepovoe (47°55'58"N 36°30'17"E). A small hamlet located on the northern, higher bank of the Vyshnevaya River and three kilometers from the Orestopol-Alekseevka line, which connects two major Ukrainian defense nodes that the Russian army will destroy in the near future: north of Velikomikhailovka (Velykomyhaylovka)-Orestopol and Alekseevka-Vishnevoe-Pervomaiskoe. By cutting off transport links between these defense nodes, our units are creating conditions for their destruction.

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https://maratkhairullin.substack.com/p/ ... -september

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Shooting down Russian planes will lead to war, a Kremlin envoy said in a chilling warning to NATO.

Source: Alan Pogrund – Daily Mail Sept 26, 2025
Dr. Ignacy Nowopolski
Sep 27, 2025

The threat comes amid rising tensions between Moscow and its European neighbors, with Russia accused of violating their airspace following a series of drone incursions.

Poland wants to pass a law that would allow its military to shoot down Russian drones over Ukraine without needing NATO or European Union approval after a number of them crossed its territory earlier this month.

Estonian airspace was also violated by three Russian fighter jets on Friday, and Moscow has been accused of being behind a swarm of drones that closed Copenhagen airport on Monday.

US President Donald Trump warned during a speech at the UN on Tuesday that NATO countries could shoot down Russian planes that violate their airspace.

But Alexei Meshkov, Russia's ambassador to France , responded by stating that shooting down their planes "would be war."

"You know, there are many NATO aircraft that violate Russian airspace, intentionally or not, but it happens quite often. They are not shot down afterwards," he told RTL , without giving an example.

He added that Russia denies any involvement in recent drone incursions in Eastern Europe.

"Russia is not doing this, it's not playing games with anyone. It's really none of our business," he added, emphasizing that the West had "deceived" Moscow "on numerous occasions."

Poland shot down at least three Russian drones during attacks on Ukraine earlier this month.

It was the first time Russian drones were shot down over NATO territory since the start of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022.

Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk warned that “this situation brings us closer to open conflict than in the times of World War II.”

European officials called Vladimir Putin's move a deliberate provocation, and NATO was forced to send fighter jets to shoot it down.

Romania also reported that just a few days later a Russian drone violated its airspace.

And on Friday, Estonian airspace was violated by three Russian fighter jets.

The Polish government now plans to lift the restrictions as part of a new "shoot first, ask questions later" policy that aims to give the military more flexibility when responding to threats.

The proposed new legislation was submitted by the country's defense ministry in June, but the application was reportedly fast-tracked.

The incursion and NATO's response have raised fears that the war could spill over - a concern that is growing in Europe as Russia intensifies its attacks and peace efforts falter.

Tusk also said earlier this week that his nation would not hesitate to shoot down objects that violate its airspace, reinforcing a sense among NATO leaders that Moscow was testing the alliance's readiness and resolve, with some calling for a decisive response.

“We will decide to shoot down flying objects when they violate our territory and fly over Poland – this is absolutely out of the question,” Tusk said at a press conference, adding that Poland will approach situations that are less clear-cut more cautiously.

“When we are faced with situations that are not entirely clear, such as the recent overflight of Russian fighter jets over the Petrobaltic platform – but without any violation, because these are not our territorial waters – we really need to think twice before deciding on actions that could trigger a very acute phase of the conflict,” he added.

Tusk said he also needed to be sure that Poland would not be alone if the conflict escalated.

“I also need to be absolutely sure… that all allies will treat this exactly the same way we do,” he said.

Meanwhile, the Royal Navy sent a warship to track a Russian frigate and a freighter off the UK coast, amid warnings that Moscow was sending an increasing number of ships through British waters.

Teams aboard HMS Iron Duke and a Wildcat helicopter tracked the heavily armed West German warship Neustrashimy as it escorted the cargo ship Sparta IV through the North Sea and the English Channel.

The mission is the latest in a series of similar operations carried out by the Royal Navy and its NATO allies in recent months that have worried the military's top brass.

“Russian warships are increasingly transiting the English Channel,” Defence Secretary Luke Pollard warned today.

“The Royal Navy protects the UK 24/7, monitoring Russia’s movements and ensuring the security of our waters and undersea.

“Together with our involvement in NATO Eastern Sentry, this is a clear demonstration of how the UK stands firmly alongside our NATO allies to deter Russian aggression.”

https://drignacynowopolski.substack.com ... -samolotow

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Attack on a Main Intelligence Directorate (GUR) mercenary training camp. September 22, 2025.
September 27, 3:03 PM

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Attack on a Main Intelligence Directorate (GUR) mercenary training camp. September 22, 2025.

Geraniums' Successes in Boryspil

Just a few days ago, our troops launched a concentrated strike ( https://t.me/rybar/73804 ) on Boryspil in the Kyiv region. The city houses both industrial enterprises and military facilities that support the needs of the Ukrainian Armed Forces.
Initial reports indicated that industrial facilities were targeted, but during the September 22 airstrike, our troops achieved tangible results. 54 Geranium UAVs of the Russian Armed Forces struck a mercenary training camp under the auspices of the so-called Main Intelligence Directorate of Ukraine.

Who did our troops eliminate?

A training facility overseen by GUR officers has been stationed on the premises of the reinforced concrete plant since 2022.

During the Geranium attack, strikes were carried out on the barracks of Latin American mercenaries (mainly Brazilian), as well as the locations of the Canadian and American instructors who trained them.

Among the dead were also GUR officers, and more than a dozen people were injured (two of whom died in the hospital). In addition, ammunition depots and military equipment were damaged by secondary detonation.

This airstrike once again demonstrates the high effectiveness of our troops' changing tactics in strikes against the so-called Ukraine. Instead of dispersing resources across dozens or even hundreds of targets at once, a concentrated attack on one, two, or three objects produces more significant results.

High-resolution map ( https://rybar.ru/piwigo/upload/2025/09/ ... 4b9cd7.jpg )

https://t.me/rybar/73910 - zinc

A worthwhile strike, we need more of this.

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/10095655.html

Unmanned Gleiwitz
September 27, 9:11

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On Kyiv's plans to conduct a false flag operation in Romania and Poland

Today, several Hungarian media outlets ( https://pestisracok.hu/vezercikk/2025/0 ... u-hazugsag ) reported on Zelenskyy's plans to carry out acts of sabotage in Romania and Poland in order to blame Russia. Thus, Bankova Street is preparing its own "Gleiwitz incident" ( https://mgimo.ru/about/news/experts/119766/ ) - with the aim of creating a casus belli for a war between Russia and NATO.

Judging by the available information, the Kyiv regime's plan is as follows:

1. Repair several downed or intercepted Russian UAVs.
2. Equip them with combat striking elements.
3. Send UAVs controlled by Ukrainian specialists, disguised as "Russian drones", to major NATO transport hubs in Poland and Romania.
4. Simultaneously, conduct a disinformation campaign in Europe with the aim of blaming Moscow for everything.
5. Unleash an armed conflict between the Russian Federation and NATO.

To carry out this provocation, on September 16, Russian Geranium UAVs were already delivered to the Yavoriv training ground in Western Ukraine, where the International Peacekeeping and International Security Center of the Hetman Petro Sahaidachny National Academy is located ( https://asv.mil.gov.ua/mtsmb/pro-nas ). They had previously been repaired in Lviv at the LORTA plant.

According to Hungarian journalists, the reason for Zelenskyy's actions is simple: the Ukrainian Armed Forces are suffering a crushing defeat. The defeat of the army is no longer occurring at the tactical level, but is acquiring a strategic nature.
If all this is confirmed, then we must admit: never in modern times has Europe been so close to the outbreak of World War III.

(c) Russian Foreign Ministry

. In fact, they have already recently sent drones without explosives to Poland. Nord Stream, with subsequent accusations against Russia, was also undermined. And there's been plenty of that. So, it's a working scenario.

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/10095030.html

On preparing a provocation to unleash a major war
September 27, 11:11 PM

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On preparing a provocation to unleash a major war

Major breakthroughs or the encirclement of thousands of soldiers are unlikely to materialize in the current conflict. The intensity of the fighting requires significant efforts from both sides on all fronts. Facing a serious crisis for the Ukrainian Armed Forces, given the high number of casualties, difficulties replenishing units with personnel and weapons, retreats on all fronts, and the approach of winter, Zelenskyy has decided to stage a high-profile provocation against his Western allies.

The events of the past month are fitting together like puzzle pieces to form a grim picture. To understand the overall trend of the current situation, we need to consider events that occurred recently.

Unprecedented Drone Activity in Europe

Poland

On the night of September 10-11, following a large-scale coordinated attack by Russian drones on Ukraine, some of them reportedly crossed the state border and landed in the Lublin Voivodeship. In total, at least 19 drones were detected, some of which were shot down by Polish air defense forces with the support of NATO aircraft. Notably, the UAVs did not have combat modules; they were Gerbera models, which the Russian army typically uses as decoys to suppress Ukrainian air defenses. Prime Minister Donald Tusk convened an emergency government meeting. That same day, Poland formally requested the invocation of Article 4 of the North Atlantic Treaty.

Article 4:

The Contracting Parties shall consult each other whenever one of them considers that the territorial integrity, political independence, or security of any of the Contracting Parties is threatened.

At the same time, it cannot be ruled out that the Ukrainians themselves launched the Gerberas at the time of the Russian strike in order to increase tensions around the conflict. Russia launches hundreds of such drones over Ukraine daily, and after completing their mission, they remain in territory controlled by Kyiv. Therefore, obtaining data from UAVs is relatively easy thanks to the large number of spare parts from previously downed Gerbers.

In response to this situation, Warsaw announced Operation Eastern Watch to protect the country's airspace. Most of Poland's NATO allies expressed support for the operation and pledged to send troops to participate in joint operations.

The Netherlands intends to send air defense systems and 300 troops, and the Czech Republic has pledged to provide additional helicopters and 100 troops. Denmark is sending two F-16 fighter jets and a military frigate.

Berlin announced it will "intensify its activity along NATO's eastern borders" and expand its airspace control to include Poland. Berlin intends to deploy four Eurofighter Typhoon fighter jets in Polish airspace.

A German armed forces brigade will also be deployed to Lithuania.

Meanwhile, French President Emmanuel Macron announced that Paris is deploying three Rafale fighter jets to protect Polish airspace.

Scandinavian Countries:

At least four large drones disrupted operations at Copenhagen Airport in Denmark for four hours on September 23. As a result, 51 flights were diverted and 109 were canceled, affecting 20,000 passengers. The drones also disrupted operations at Stockholm Airport in Sweden for more than three hours. NATO E-3 AWACS airborne early warning and target acquisition aircraft were deployed to detect and destroy the drones. However, none of the drones were shot down, and they disappeared in an unknown direction.

This is the second time that unidentified unmanned aerial vehicles have been spotted over Scandinavia. As a result, three airports in Denmark—Aalborg, Esbjerg, and Svendborg—were closed on the night of September 25. A high alert was also declared at the key Danish Air Force base in Skidstrup, home to F-16 and F-35 fighter jets.

This is clearly raising anxiety among the European population, and similar incidents could very well happen again. The media need not exaggerate the significance of this news—it's obvious to the average person that if Europe is in a state of "cold" confrontation with Moscow, the drones must be Russian.

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The number of NATO troops in Eastern Europe has increased significantly

. In September, the European Union's attention will be focused on Moldova, where parliamentary elections are scheduled for September 28. In her address to her compatriots, President Maia Sandu reminded them that Moldova is a parliamentary republic and that the country's fate is at stake, as the legislature will determine its future, including its possible accession to the EU.

To prevent the "wrong party" from winning, Moldova is under intense pressure, including military force. There have been reports of French troops appearing in the country. At the same time, overt and covert deployments from Romanian territory through the Focsani Gate are underway. French military transport planes carrying French army personnel were recently spotted at a Romanian Air Force base. It cannot be ruled out that these forces could be used to stage a provocation in Transnistria, a region controlled by Russia.

In the event of escalation, the redeployed units could be sent to seize Odessa and several other small Black Sea ports. This would be perceived by Moscow as crossing a red line, forcing Russia to retaliate.

Furthermore, the deployment of NATO forces in Poland signals a military buildup on the alliance's eastern flank. Such measures are never taken without reason; they always serve a purpose, whether obvious or not.

Preparations for a provocation are underway.

History teaches us that a bloody pretext is often needed to start a major war. For example, the assassination of Franz Ferdinand, heir to the Austrian throne, in Sarajevo on June 28, 1914, by a Serbian student became the pretext for the outbreak of World War I. Now Kyiv is trying to assume the role of that student. Ukraine's inability to stop the Russian advance on its own, coupled with reduced funding and arms supplies, primarily from the United States, are forcing Zelenskyy to take radical steps. The

Security Service of Ukraine received an order from the President's Office to assemble, repair, and prepare for use several dozen Russian Geran-2 drones that had been shot down or grounded by the Ukrainian military using electronic warfare.

On September 16, the repaired drones were delivered to the Yavorivskyi training ground in western Ukraine, near the village of Starichi and the International Peacekeeping and Security Center of the Hetman Petro Sahaidachny National Academy.

The drones were repaired in Lviv at the Lviv Aircraft Repair Plant and at the Lorta company.

In the coming days, the Security Service of Ukraine plans to launch a strike with Geran-2 drones against a NATO military facility in Romania from western Ukraine. The target is expected to be the 57th Mihail Kogălniceanu Air Base of the Romanian Air Force, located 26 kilometers north-northwest of Constanta. Since the beginning of the conflict in Ukraine, this base has become one of the largest on NATO's western flank and is responsible for supporting Kyiv.

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Following an established pattern, a campaign will be launched in Ukrainian and Western media, as well as on social media, accusing Russia of attacking a NATO country and demanding the bloc intervene in the Ukrainian conflict.

https://southfront.press/zelensky-prepa ... -tomorrow/ - original in English

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/10096810.html

Google Translator
"There is great chaos under heaven; the situation is excellent."

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Re: Footnotes from the Ukrainian "Crisis"; New High-Points in Cynicism Part V

Post by blindpig » Mon Sep 29, 2025 1:12 pm

Bombings, threats and the financing of war
Posted by @nsanzo ⋅ 09/29/2025

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Donald Trump's remarks this week, calling the current moment a "time to act," pointing to the possibility of restoring Ukraine's original structure—a comment that has been interpreted as support for the fight to achieve the 1991 borders—and opening the door to increased military supplies have sidelined the few opportunities for negotiation created by the diplomatic efforts of recent months. Direct talks between Russia and Ukraine, which have dealt exclusively with humanitarian issues, telephone conversations and the in-person summit between Trump and Putin, or Steve Witkoff's visits to Moscow, have all been of no avail. Trumpism has never succeeded in achieving political negotiations between the parties, which has angered the US president with the party he perceives as most disloyal. Paradoxically, his poor relationship with Zelensky has excused the Ukrainian president, who has been skillful in modifying his discourse to introduce peace terms he did not want, but which added pressure on the Russian side. Disappointed with Vladimir Putin for not having complied with US orders to accept a ceasefire or seek a type of resolution to the conflict that offered, perhaps, maintaining the captured territory, but at the cost of the presence of NATO countries on a de facto border , not even recognized, Donald Trump has never presented Russia with a proposal to negotiate and, in a diplomatic stalemate, has opted to recover the strategy of threats with which his predecessor, Joe Biden, managed the war.

The message sent to Russia these days has been clear, coming from all three actors directly or indirectly involved in the war: Ukraine, European countries, and the United States. Whether or not it is a negotiation strategy to achieve what diplomacy, talks, and incentives have failed to achieve, and whether Russia accepts the conditions offered, the certainty is that, at least for a while, attacks against Russia will intensify. This is what Volodymyr Zelensky promised in an interview with Axios , in which he warned the Kremlin of the need to seek bomb shelters, a comment that can be interpreted as a threat to attack the Russian government headquarters with drones or missiles.

To the military threats of using Western weapons in Russia, including the new miracle weapons Zelensky aspires to receive from the United States, Tomahawks capable of reaching Moscow and St. Petersburg, Ukraine intends to add economic threats. “Zelensky proposes a new plan to defeat Russia,” wrote Ukrainian-Canadian academic Ivan Katchanovski, who wondered if “he believes it himself.” “Europe must stop importing Russian oil and gas. Russia spends all this money directly on the war. We don't see an increase in social support within Russia, which means all these funds are going to the war. If there is a shortage of funds for the war, social support for the Russian population will decrease. If social support decreases, people will become dissatisfied. And Russian leaders will be as well. History shows that Russia has always changed after hunger riots. And that is precisely what they fear,” he stated in a message posted on social media, which takes the idea of ​​a paper tiger whose economy is destroyed to science fiction levels. Although Ukraine has always aspired to "bring war to the doorsteps of the Russian people" and use the suffering of the civilian population as a tool to cause instability, this goal has always failed.

Now, in terms that attempt to show strength but are actually akin to a certain desperation, given the realization that nothing Ukraine has attempted has achieved its objective, Zelensky aspires to cause starvation among the civilian population of his enemy, something directly reminiscent of his predecessor's strategy against the population of Donbass and against the possibility of a negotiated resolution to the conflict. In the fall of 2014, after the signing of the first Minsk agreement to achieve a ceasefire and subsequent negotiations, Poroshenko, who had already decreed the non-payment of pensions and social benefits in Donbass, announced that "today, as hunger riots begin in the occupied territories of Donbass, militants are shooting at vehicles transporting Ukrainian humanitarian aid." Despite the extreme humanitarian situation in Donbass, these imaginary riots were Poroshenko's dream to achieve, as Zelensky now also desires, through economic means and hunger what he had failed to achieve through military means. Nor can we ignore Ukraine's willingness to use hunger as a tool now that it is being actively used by Israel against the Palestinian population of Gaza and, further from the headlines, by the Rapid Support Forces supported by the United Arab Emirates in the largely ignored war in Sudan.

And when what Russia is currently being offered is an escalation of the war, always camouflaged in peace talks and intentions to shorten the war, the official narrative expresses its surprise when, as yesterday, Russia responds by increasing its use of drones and missiles. With no diplomatic solution in sight, the war remains doomed to periodic escalations, especially in the air war with which both sides seek to undermine their opponent's military effort. Ukraine does this daily by trying to reach Russian oil refineries, while Russia attacks the military industry that kyiv boasts about and which is not always located in isolated locations. “A massive Russian attack on Ukraine lasted more than 12 hours. Brutal attacks, a deliberate and targeted terrorist attack against ordinary cities: nearly 500 attack drones and more than 40 missiles, including Kinzhal missiles. This morning, the Russian-Iranian shaheds are again in our skies,” Volodymyr Zelenskyy wrote yesterday. “Russia is attacking Ukraine with drones and missiles. Once again, residential buildings and infrastructure are being attacked. Once again, this is a war against civilians. There will be a response to such actions. But the West's economic attacks against Russia must also be intensified. This unhinged Putin regime only understands force,” added his right-hand man, Andriy Ermak, who, contrary to the evidence, once again claimed deliberate attacks against the civilian population.

The plot is a strike, clearly the result of an anti-aircraft missile strike, on a civilian building, where the damage is clearly different from that caused in the past by Russian missile strikes. In this war, where rhetoric is more important than action and where comparisons between civilian casualties from Russian and Israeli bombings are often ignored, any attack is presented as a form of deliberate aggression against the civilian population in order to subsequently justify the intensification of military and economic assistance to kyiv and to insist on military action as the only possible solution to the war.

Continuing to fight, especially now that it is necessary to commercially acquire the weapons previously donated by the United States, entails a huge economic effort that cannot be sustained over time. Hence, to Ukraine's delight, European countries continue to seek legal ways to seize the Russian public and private assets withheld by the European Union since February 2022. So far, kyiv has received the interest income from these resources, a significant amount but insignificant compared to the total withheld, nearly $300 billion. Over these three and a half years, legal experts and even some leaders like Olaf Scholz have made it clear that the expropriation of these funds would entail a litigation process in which Russia would have everything to gain. Expropriating funds from a country against which war has not been declared would violate current laws, an argument that is not enough to convince Ukraine or Donald Trump.

“Germany has been and remains cautious on the issue of confiscating the Russian central bank's frozen assets in Europe, and rightly so. Not only are there issues of international law to consider, but also fundamental issues related to the euro's role as the world's reserve currency. But this should not deter us: we must consider how, circumventing these issues, we can make these funds available for Ukraine's defense,” wrote German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, the leading figure in the group of leaders seeking ways to seize these assets in a way that cannot be described as expropriation, in the Financial Times last week. In one of the most recent episodes of his podcast, The Times columnist Mark Galeotti, openly pro-Ukrainian but with more realistic positions, warned of what he called "creative legality," a euphemism to camouflage the flagrant illegality of a de facto expropriation of the assets of a country with which none of the EU members are officially at war, and which sends a clear message of insecurity regarding its assets to countries like China and India.

“In my opinion, a viable solution should now be developed whereby, without interfering with property rights, we can make available to Ukraine an interest-free loan totaling almost €140 billion. This loan would only be repaid once Russia has compensated Ukraine for the damage caused during this war. Until then, Russian assets will remain frozen, as decided by the European Council,” Merz adds, offering straightforward solutions to complex problems and embracing the creative legal framework that would place the seized Russian assets in Kiev's hands until it receives war reparations to repay the loan.

As with the military presence of NATO countries in Ukraine, only a militarily and economically defeated Russia would accept the payment of war reparations as part of a settlement. The only exception is the one published a few months ago by Reuters , according to which the Kremlin would be willing to put its seized assets—long since written off—on the table for the reconstruction of Ukraine on the condition that they would also be used to rebuild the territories that would remain under its control after the war. The leaked proposal fell into obscurity without provoking any response from the West, as its interest is not in achieving a sustainable peace, but rather a victory that entails the recovery of territories, a NATO military presence, the general militarization of Ukraine, and war reparations that represent collective punishment for Russia today and tomorrow.

https://slavyangrad.es/2025/09/29/bomba ... la-guerra/

Google Translator

*******
From Cassad's Telegram account:

Colonelcassad
In European countries, war with Russia within the next five years is being blared from every corner of the internet. ( @medvedev_telegram )

It shouldn't happen.

Why?

Because it contradicts our country's interests.

1. Russia, in principle, doesn't need a war with anyone, including frigid old Europe. There's nothing to gain there. Europe's economy is weak and dependent on the United States, and its culture is ingloriously degrading. Europe is losing its identity, dissolving in aggressive migrants.

2. The main task of the Russian people is to develop its territories, including the restoration of our returned lands. This is neither easy nor cheap.

3. Russia has always come to Europe only as a liberator, not as an invader.

Why can't such a war be unleashed by Europe itself? Here's why.

1. European countries are vulnerable and disunited. They can only pursue their own interests, trying to survive in the current economic chaos. They simply cannot afford a war with Russia.

2. European leaders are insignificant degenerates, incapable of assuming the burden of responsibility for any serious undertaking. They lack strategic thinking, much less the passion necessary for successful military decisions.

3. Europeans are, for the most part, inert and effete; they are unwilling to fight for any shared ideals or even for their own land.

Why is war even possible?

The possibility of a fatal accident always exists. And the hyperactivity of frostbitten idiots hasn't gone away. And such a conflict carries a very real risk of escalating into a war using weapons of mass destruction.

Therefore, we must be vigilant.

***

Colonelcassad
Today, we lost an Mi-8 helicopter. The aircraft was hit by an enemy FPV drone.
The pilots managed to land the burning aircraft. The crew reportedly survived and was evacuated.
The main thing is that they were saved. But this incident is a reminder that drones pose a threat to helicopters as well, especially since there have been precedents.

https://t.me/s/boris_rozhin

Google Translator.

*****

Ukraine Update
September
Roger Boyd
Sep 28, 2025

It’s now late September and time to take stock of the progress of the Russian army along the main lines of attack, especially with the Alaska summit now turning out to have been more performative than productive.

Ukraine manpower situation gets even worse

Due to the level of internal unrest within Ukraine, Zelensky decided to allow 18-22 year old men to leave the country to reduce the pressure for change in the short-term. Nearly immediately, large numbers of such men could be seen crossing the border.

State Border Guard Service spokesman Andrey Demchenko said that young people had already begun departing after the travel ban was lifted. Large numbers were reportedly heading toward the borders with Poland and Hungary, causing traffic jams that have been widely publicized on social media. He confirmed that the first applicants had already completed the necessary paperwork at checkpoints and left the country.

With so many men at the front, dead or disabled, the younger age group had become the backbone of the male non-military workforce. With parents already taking their under 18-year old sons abroad en masse and now with the 18-22 year olds added the result will be severe manpower shortages in the Ukrainian economy. As well as draining the reserve of future possible recruits and press-ganged. In response, Ukraine made people over 60 eligible for service in the armed forces; such individuals will be more of a burden than a benefit in such a conflict.

The Ukrainian army is experiencing about 45,000 to 50,000 casualties every month, together with hundreds of thousands that have deserted their positions and gone AWOL. With very few of them being replaced, and the press-ganging of unwilling recruits becoming more and more desperate. You will not see the things in the video below in the Western media.



The resulting reductions in front line strength can be seen in the increasing inability of the Ukrainian military to mount any more than localized counter-attacks. And even then, such attacks require the weakening of other areas of the front as the Ukrainian army has no free reserve units left. A good example is the redeployment of the 3rd Assault Brigade from the area west of Lozova where it had spent many months launching counter-attack after counter-attack against the Russian forces. That the Ukrainians had to redeploy this already exhausted unit to try to hold back the Russian forces in Kupyansk is indicative of the manpower shortages of the Ukrainian military.

As Larry Johnson notes “Dead Bodies Don’t Lie”:

Since January 1, 2025, Ukraine has received the bodies of 9,365 Ukrainian soldiers while Russia has received an estimated deceased soldiers. In other words, for every dead Russian serviceman there are 39 dead Ukrainian soldiers. This represents nine months of data, so we are not dealing with a one-time aberration.

Johnson points out the delusional statements of Trump’s main Russia point man, Keith Kellogg, such as when he stated that Russia has over a million dead and wounded. Mirroring the many such statements of massive Russian casualty levels by European leaders. Even accounting for the fact that the Russians are advancing and will therefore tend to recover more Ukrainian dead than the Ukrainians recover Russian dead, the ratio is still indicative of an incredibly one sided level of losses on the Ukrainian side. Which would be expected given the colossal Russian advantages in pretty much every aspect of the war. Those increasing advantages are also resulting in a continual fall in Russian casualties, as reported by Mediazona. Only 54,000 deaths recorded in the first eight months of the year, even using the more expansive probate registry estimate.

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The war has now been going on for 43 months, so total Ukrainian deaths of over 1 million are very likely. Then add to that the irretrievably physically and mentally disabled, together with hundreds of thousands of deserters and a number above 2 million is quite likely.

The official Ukrainian demographic information is utterly bogus as it does not reflect even the pre-war mass migrations of the young abroad to find work and better life chances. The official number for Ukrainian controlled territories is 36.7 million. The IMF estimate of 33.4 million, still a massive over-estimation. The actual population within the Ukrainian controlled areas is probably below 20 million, heavily skewed toward the old and infirm. A male population between 25 and 60 of about 4 million capable of military service seems about right, taking existing disabilities, over 2 million dead, newly disabled, MIA and AWOL, at least a million serving in the armed services / security services / support services and a still remaining population with reserved occupations. This matches with the desperate press-gang tactics being used to find and forcibly conscript anyone eligible for military services, the opening of military service to those over 60, and the increasing number of women at the front. We are also seeing a more and more diverse group of mercenaries as Ukraine scans the globe for warm bodies to throw into the meat grinder. Also with the observed workforce impacts of the 18-22 year-old age group being allowed to leave Ukraine. Ukraine is being bled dry, and the population will now drop further with the 18-22 year old population being allowed to leave.

The critical Ukrainian shortage of manpower is forcing them to use highly skilled specialists such as aircraft technicians and drone operators as front line troops, stripping away critical parts of the rear areas. This from Southfront:

The crisis on the front line has forced the Ukrainian Armed Forces to transfer aviation technicians to assault units in order to compensate for losses in the infantry. This decision has been officially confirmed by the General Staff and highlights the acute shortage of personnel, exacerbated by low motivation and desertion. Meanwhile, specialists trained abroad to work on F-16 equipment are not being deployed to the infantry.

European governments are now winding down social support programs for Ukrainian refugees in an attempt to encourage them to return home, including the large numbers of able-bodied military age men. Given that the latter very much understand their fate if they return home, the removal of social support will more add recruits to the Ukrainian criminal element in Europe than provide new recruits for the Ukrainian military. With respect to the women, it may lead to an increase in the ranks of prostitutes and those striving for relationships and marriages of economic convenience.

Extended Russian Drone “Kill Zones”

As the video below covers, Russia is developing a much longer range drone capability to interdict the Ukrainian military at up to 45km from the front line. This is through the development of longer range FPV drones and mothership drones that can carry FPV drones deeper into enemy territory. The pace of development of drone technology is very much in parallel to that of military aircraft during WW1, and Russia is excelling at driving new developments and then industrializing and mass producing those developments.

As this Russian capability grows, the logistics of the Ukrainian forces up to 45km from the front line will be severely interdicted. Together with strikes on fixed logistics points, such as bridges and railway stations, this promises to severely reduce the ability of the Ukrainians to resupply and reinforce their front line positions.



For many weeks now there have been no reported destructions of Ukrainian armoured fighting vehicles (AFVs), infantry fighting vehicles (IFVs) or even the out of date tracked coffin armoured personnel carriers (APCs), and the losses of Ukrainian Light Armoured Vehicles (LAVs) have fallen rapidly. This points to a widespread lack of tracked vehicles, and even the generally wheeled LAVs. In contrast, the Russian army is recording the destruction of many hundreds of civilian-style motor vehicles each week.

The lack of tracked and armoured vehicles will be reducing the Ukrainian armies logistical capabilities just as Russia is establishing drone killing fields up to 45km from the front. This will worsen again in about a month as the season of mud arrives to force all wheeled vehicles onto the limited number of paved roads, providing a concentration of the limited logistical targets for the Russian drones. Increasing drone sensor capabilities, such as thermal and low light cameras, can make the night just as dangerous as the day.

Sumy

Take Sumy

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This area of the front has now been relatively stable for months, with its role now seeming to be to tie down Ukrainian troops and attrit them rather than as an active front. The Russian focus has been on other fronts. This may change if the Ukrainian army is forced to move manpower elsewhere to fill other holes in the front created by the Russians.

Kupyansk

Taking Kupyansk to cut off the Ukrainian troops east of the Oskol between Kupyansk and Kolisnykivka (about 14km). IN THE CENTRE OF KUPYANSK

Connecting the Russian troops in Kupyansk, Vovchans’k, and Mylove (aka Melovoye) cutting off all positions contained by Kupyansk, Prymorske and Vovchans’k. VOVCHANSK AND MYLOVE BRIDGEHEADS BEING EXPANDED

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This area has remained the one with the slowest progress, with the Russian forces now grinding their way through Kupyansk after they dealt with numerous Ukrainian counter-attacks. As noted above, the Ukrainians are redeploying even exhausted units from other areas of the front in a desperate attempt top hold back the Russians; who are now within sight of the main Oskil river crossing in Kupyansk and control two thirds of the buildings in the city. The Ukrainians are being slowly and progressively squeezed out, and (not shown on the above map) the Russians are working on flanking the core fortified area in the centre through an advance just west of the main north-south road; to cut both supply routes into the city.

The fall of Kupyansk will fundamentally change the dynamics of this area of the front, as it will cut off the Ukrainian troops east of the Oskol in a northern pocket which would then be collapsed. Kupyansk itself will provide a major logistics hub to the Russian forces from which they can drive north, south and east. The clearing of the pocket east of the Oskil will also free up the Russian forces to drive southwards from Kruhlyakivka to Borova, Lozova (the drive from the east toward Lozova has recently been restarted) and Izyum.

We are also seeing increased activity in Vovchansk and an expansion of the bridgehead around Milove (aka Melovoye), which threatens the envelopment of the area enclosed by Vovchansk, Pechenihy, Kupyansk and Varavarivka. This would significantly improve the Russian army’s logistics, with two roads from Russia combining at what would become the logistics hub of Prykolotne. It would also open up yet another hole requiring Ukrainian troops to plug; troops that the Ukrainians don’t have. The Russians would be only 25km from Kharkov, and just over 10km from the M03 between Kharkov and Izyum, and 25km from cutting the lesser regional P78 road; the main supply roads into Izyum and the west bank of the Oskil.


Lyman-Siversk

Take Lozove to cut off the Ukrainian troops east of the Oskol between Lozove and Bohuslavka (about 17km), with only the bridge at Horokhovatka left to supply them; a bridge that will be destroyed any time it becomes functional. WITHIN 5 KM OF ROAD TO LOZOVE

Take Lyman and/or Yampil to cut off all of the supply routes to Siversk RUSSIAN TROOPS ENTERED YAMPIL, 3KM TO LYMAN

Take Siversk to collapse the front that is centred on it. RUSSIAN TROOPS HAVE ENTERED THE TOWN

North of Siversk

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The Russians taking of Srednee (aka Serednje) and advance toward Korovii Yar puts them within 5km of the road that goes through Lozove which supplies the Ukrainian forces further north, east of the Oskil River. That would make those forces totally reliant on the only bridge at Horokhovatka, which we can assume will be attacked any time it becomes functional.

With the taking of the Serebryanka forest, Tors’ke, and Zarichne (6km northeast of Lyman) major progress has been achieved. To the northwest of Lyman, Shandryholove has been taken and the Russian forces are now entering Drobysheve (3 km from Lyman). Russian troops are directly storming Yampil, just south of which is the remaining main supply route for Siversk. The Russians are also advancing from the south, taking Pereizne (aka Pereezdnoe) and Kuzmynivka (not shown on the above map) and now entering Zvanivka; only 3km away from Siversk from the south. The Russian military have also stated that Russian troops have entered Siversk from the north.

The taking of any of Lyman, Yampil or Siversk would create much greater fluidity in an area that has been akin to WW1 for a couple of years. And create yet another hole for the Ukrainians to plug.

Kostyantynivka / Kramatorsk / Solvyansk

Advance northwards to the west of Kostyantynivka to Osykove to cut the H20 (envelopment from south west) MOVE NORTH WEST OF KUPYANSK STALLED BY A MAJOR MOVE OF UKRAINIAN FORCES TO THE AREA

Advance west from the north of Chasiv Yar to Maiske & Markove, then flank the deep emplacements by advancing to Osykove and Druzhkivka to cut the H20 (envelopment from north east) MAISKE TAKEN

Close the pocket between Toretsk and Yablunivka DONE

Take the area between Dachne (northeast of Toretsk) and Predtechyne (east of Kostyantynivka) as that will enclose a heavily fortified area and threaten Kostyantynivka from the east and south east. It would also bring the T0516, that supplies the Ukrainian troops between Kostyantynivka and Kleban-Byk, under Russian fire control. DONE, RUSSIAN FORCES WITHIN 1 KM OF T0516 AND 3KM OF THE H20 THAT SUPPLIES UKRAINIAN FORCES TO THE SOUTHWEST OF KOSTYANTYNIVKA.

Move north from above pocket toward the southern outskirts of Kostyantynivka and storm the town. RUSSIAN FORCES IN THE SOUTHWESTERN OUTSKIRTS OF THE TOWN.

Advance to the west of Kramatorsk to sever the supply lines between it and everything to the west (T0514 and T0510), which will greatly aid a northwards advance from the Pokrovsk area. STALLED, SEE ABOVE.

Take Izyum to then completely cut off the Kramatorsk/Slovyansk agglomeration from the north. FUTURE OBJECTIVE.

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The large push northwards from northwest of Pokrovsk was successfully stalled by significant Ukrainian reinforcements. Maiske (aka Mayskoye) to the northwest of Cashov Yar taken, and advance to the outskirts of Markove (aka Markovo); some mapper says that Markove has already been taken..

The area between Chasov Yar and Tortesk fronts connected with the closing of the fortified area in between them. Russians are in the southeastern outskirts of Kostyantynivka and within 1km of the T0516 and 3km of the H20, threatening to cut off all of the Ukrainian forces southeast, south and southwest of Kostyantynivka. This would lead to a substantial collapse of the front and the advance of Russian troops to Kostyantynivka from many directions.

The hardest part will be the taking of Izyum given the Ukrainian focus on the northern fronts, and the obvious strategic disaster that the loss of Izyum would be for the Ukrainians. Perhaps after a couple of more months of depleting the Ukrainian army, its logistics chains and its economic infrastructure, it may be time for the Russians to launch an overwhelming offensive in this area to cover the 20km to Izyum. Especially if the Ukrainians are forced to redirect even more forces toward Kostyantynivka, Pokrovsk and Pokrovs’ke (see below), and perhaps after the taking of Lyman, Yampil and Siversk.


Pokrovsk

Attack on the northeastern flank, taking Razine and advancing to outskirts of Myrnohrad: DONE

Cut the northern supply roads roads between Pokrovsk and Kostyantynivka: UNDER RUSSIAN FIRE CONTROL

Advance to Hryshyne on the high ground north west of Pokrovsk, cut the last supply road of the E50: STALLED DUE TO UKRAINIAN REINFORCEMENTS

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North East of Pokrovsk

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After overcoming the extra Ukrainian forces within Pokrovsk, the Russians are now storming the west/northwest of the town to take the junctions of the E50 and 00525 roads with the T0504 going east; cutting the remaining major supply lines (the above map of Pokrovsk is a little outdated). West to East traffic would then have to be redirected to the many times smaller Olympiys’ka road from Hryshyne to the north-south T0515 south of Rodyns’ke, but that small road would then be the focus of Russian drone attacks and the T0515 is very exposed to Russian fire. So, even with this redirection the Ukrainian logistics would be severely impacted and that could lead to the collapse of the defences in Pokrovsk and Mirnohrad. The Russians are also storming the southeast of the town to create an encirclement of the high rise “citadel” area.

The advances north/north east of Pokrovsk have been successfully stalled by the Ukrainians, at the cost of transferring significant elements from other areas of the front. The Ukrainians are now attempting to cut off the “bulge” of the Russian north of Bokivka. At best, this will delay the Russians, at worst it will lead to the loss of large numbers of elite troops and vehicles. The Russian army is working to cut off the relatively narrow Ukrainian incursions into their lines. We can assume a merciless drone, artillery, helicopter and fixed wing aircraft bombardment of the Ukrainian troops.

A fall of the Pokrovsk agglomeration could well lead to accelerated Russian advances into an operational space with few emplacements and only relatively small towns. The morale of the Ukrainian army would have been severely reduced, and its logistics significantly impacted. Russia will have the Pokrovsk area as an important staging and supply area for ongoing offensives. That is why the town, and its environs, have turned into an irresistible meat grinder for the Ukrainian forces.


The Southern Front

Take Novopavlovka to protect northern flank and gain access to less fortified areas to the west. WITHIN 2km.

Take Pokrovs’ke to cut the T0401 from the north. RUSSIAN FORCES WITHIN 14KM.

Take Hulyaipole to cut the T0401 from the south. RUSSIAN FORCES WITHIN 14KM

Take Novomykolaivka to cut the T0408 from the north.

Take Orikhiv to cut the T0408 from the south.

Advance to the south and west of Zaporizhzhia to cut the T0803 and N15 from the west. RUSSIANS STORMING STEPNOHIRS’K and PRYMORSK

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The taking of Muravka to the northeast of Novopavlovka, together with the retaking of Andriivka-Kletsove and Zelenyi Hai to its south, and then the storming of Ivanivka that threatens to cut off the western supply route to the town, are part of a slow developing envelopment of Novopavlivka. The forces in Muravka are only 6km from the remaining northern supply route of the T0428, which means that we can assume that it is already under heavy drone attack.

The Russian forces have also advanced to within 3km of the T0428 south of Novopavlivka, threatening to cut off the Ukrainian forces that have been counter-attacking Dachne for months. This will allow the Russians to use the T0428 as a supply route for attacking Novopavlivka from the south.

The southeastern front is seeing nearly daily advances as the Russians take one village/town after another, outflanking the Ukrainian defensive lines to the north and south. The focus seems to be more in the south toward Hulyaipole (where the defensive lines to its south are too strong to directly attack) with the move south of Velykomykhailivka holding for now. The Pryvilne/Pavlivka/Upsenivka/Novovasylivske/Novomykolaivka agglomeration is the remaining hurdle to cross before the Russians can advance on Hulyaipole from the northeast, behind the Ukrainian south and east facing defence lines. How much longer can the Ukrainians allow daily advances here before they have to attempt to reinforce this front?

The same issue of fortifications has halted further advances from Malynivka toward Hulyaipole and from Mala Tomachka toward Orikhiv. The storming of Stephohirs’k and Prymorsk (less than 15km from Zaprorizhzhia) is in progress. The taking of Hulyaipole will provide the Russians with a much needed logistics hub that can support drives westward to continue to outflank the Ukrainian defences from the north.


The Europeans continue to lose their minds

Trump has pretty much moved support for Ukraine to a Europe that does not have the resources to fill the hole left by the US. At the same time, with his recent maneuverings, he has removed the US from further obligations to use secondary sanctions to block Russian fossil fuel sales.



The European oligarchies cannot accept that they will lose the Ukrainian War, and faced with the reality of that eventual loss are left in a state of severe angst and desperate denial. Knowing that their forces will be treated as legitimate military targets, and attacked, if they enter Ukraine.

While the leaderships of the UK, France and Germany suffering historically low approval levels, France faced with both a constitutional and fiscal crisis, and economic growth hovering around stall speed. With massively sanctioned Russia still growing faster, and China growing at a steady 5% per annum. The opening of the Ukrainian border to those 22 years old and below by Zelensky only deepened the European anger, as it allows so many to escape the fate of imperial proxy cannon fodder.

The Western oligarchs and their courtiers are desperately attempting to ramp up the unfounded fear of Russia, with an obviously Ukraine false flag drone incursion into Poland and Russian aircraft flying in international airspace being falsely accused of breaching Estonian airspace. We can expect a continuous stream of such propagandist games.

Moldova Election

After the stealing of the Romanian election, the EU and NATO are now faced with another election that may need fixing or even something beyond that. In Moldova there will be parliamentary elections on September 28th, and the Western vassal Sandu’s coalition looks like it could lose even with a fair degree of election rigging. Sandu’s government has already played the “Russia, Russia, Russia” card in an authoritarian crackdown prior to the election, including banning one opposition party and critical media outlet after another. We can also expect the usual disenfranchisement of the vast majority of the 300,000 Moldovans living in Russia. Everything possible will be done to get in the votes of Moldovans in the EU, with a huge amount of polling stations made available; with the possibility of ballot stuffing and “voting often” made easier. As was done during the recent presidential elections that were fixed to get Sandu elected. This is “democracy” in the famous European “garden”.

But not even that may be enough, and the opposition may win the legislature; effectively tying Sandu’s corrupt Western vassal hands. Perhaps even an impeachment of Sandu for the extensive wrongdoings of her administration. Such an outcome cannot be allowed for such a front line state and we now see more and more reports of possible NATO state intervention. It will all be blamed on “Russian interference” as a state of emergency is declared and Sandu follows the Zelensky path to dictatorship. The West only likes democracy when it serves its interests. Such a takeover would also serve the European elite’s desperate need to flex their atrophied muscles, by attacking the Russian enclave of Transnistria before Russian forces can link up with them; placing NATO forces closer to Odessa.

An accumulation of stressors leading to collapse

The Russians are attriting the Ukrainian forces by about 50,000 casualties each month, have massively stepped up the attacks on the Ukrainian infrastructure supporting the war effort, and are opening one new hole after another in the front that the Ukrainians need to plug. With no reserves, and even no relatively rested units, this means that plugging one hole simply leads to the unplugging of another; with more and more holes appearing. Opposite Donetsk, the Russians are also very close to entering an operational space of limited Ukrainian fortifications and a flat topography; both of which will provide advantage to the attacking Russian forces. While the US has pulled its support, and the Ukrainians are now dependent on the lesser European resources. A recipe for a cascading collapse, only mitigated by the still restrictive drone capabilities; but the Russians are building an overwhelming advantage even in that area.

https://rogerboyd.substack.com/p/ukraine-update-99e

*****
Richest men richer. The transformation of politics. Akhmetov, Pinchuk, Poroshenko, Kolomoisky.
Events in Ukraine
Sep 27, 2025

At the start of 2022, it was popular to proclaim that the era of Ukraine’s oligarchy was over. Many western-oriented publications still repeat this mantra.

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But the latest figures on the wealth of the old economic elite puts this hypothesis in question.

To begin with, methodology. The term ‘oligarch’ has its issues. It is generally used as a quasi-racial term of abuse against the economic elites of non-western countries. All the putative qualities of an oligarch - obscene wealth, government connections, disrespect for the rule of law - could be just as easily applied to the likes of Elon Musk or Jeff Bezos. Instead, American oligarchs are called ‘businessmen’, while representatives of Russian or Ukrainian big business are called ‘oligarchs’.

Nevertheless, I will use the term. I understand it as referring to individuals that have accumulated such a degree of wealth that their positions are relatively unassailable domestically. They grip over certain sectors is impervious to government interventions or entrepreneurial newcomers.

Importantly, an oligarch is relatively independent on the world stage. An oligarch is not a comprador. The latter manages the local assets of a foreign corporation. An oligarch owns his own assets.

In eastern european conditions, a country with oligarchs has more sovereignty than one without them. A necessary corollary of the EU-integration of eastern europe has been the disappearance of their domestic oligarchs, replaced or transformed into compradors. In some deep recesses of the, say, Romanian halls of power, independent business interests remain, but the autonomy of domestic business elites is still incomparable to pre-2022 Ukraine. The state of contemporary Greece is another example.

Hence the hostility of the west towards eastern european ‘oligarchs’. These oligarchs fiercely protect their markets from foreign penetration. Their connections with local governments give them significant advantages over more ‘respectable’ western newcomers.

The oligarchy has also been deeply distasteful to the west for geopolitical reasons. They are not simply western puppets — they have their own interests. They are quite different to, say, the NGOs, who receive their salary directly from western governments. I wrote about the conflict between the oligarchs and the compradors in the 2014-21 period here.

The NGOs are quite happy to parrot whatever suicidal economic or geopolitical directives received from the state department. That’s because an NGO employee has no domestic assets — simply a revenue stream from abroad.

The oligarchs were never loyal to western goals. The interests of the two have converged in certain conjunctures, but no more.

In 2014, many Ukrainian oligarchs supported the euromaidan movement against president Yanukovych — because they disliked the centralizing tendencies of the president, because of their fears of increased penetration by Russian capital, and because of Victoria Nuland’s threats of sanctions in case the ‘pro-Russian’ president Viktor Yanukovych remained.

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The 2013-14 euromaidan events removed president Viktor Yanukovych from power because he had second thoughts about the EU-Ukraine free trade agreement

Nor have the oligarchs been truly loyal to the nationalist death-drive. A number of oligarchs - particularly those of the ‘Dnepropetrovsk clan’ funded nationalist paramilitaries in 2014-15. But this was essentially a way to increase their own power and isolate the Donetsk clan, their age-old competitors.

Once members of the Dnepropetrovsk clan had gained the assets they desired, there was little reason for them to be particularly enthusiastic for the war. Almost all Ukrainian businessmen depend to some extent on trade with Russia. And the shock therapy, removal of tariffs, and general de-oligarchization demanded by the IMF, US, and EU was hardly to their liking.

Between 2014 and 2016, more than 60 Ukrainian banks were successfully liquidated at the demand of the IMF - to the horror of the oligarchs, for whom an array of somewhat fictional financial institutions was crucial to their business operations. Many more ordinary Ukrainian citizens also suffered.

In general, despite the well-known venality of the oligarchs, domination by oligarchic interests is less ruinous to the broader population than domination by comprador, foreign interests. When the oligarchs remain, there are at least some domestic employment opportunities. The only employment opportunities offered by the compradors were in the EU - the main ‘achievement’ of the post-2014 government was visa-free travel to the EU countries.

By about 2016, the most well-known representatives of the Dnepropetrovsk clan ‘unexpectedly’ came out with statements supporting an end to the war. Viktor Pinchuk and Igor Kolomoisky, supposedly the country’s most pro-western, anti-Russian oligarchs, wrote articles for the WSJ and gave interviews to the NYT arguing that Ukraine should abandon hopes of joining NATO and retaking Crimea, instead prioritizing peace through reconciliation.

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I wrote here about the shrill hysteria this provoked among Ukraine’s western-funded liberal nationalists. ‘Capitulation to Russia is unacceptable’ echoed in chorus. But despite criticism, Kolomoisky stepped up his campaign against what his 1+1 media empire called ‘the Sorosites’. Zelensky, then the chief comic employed by Kolomoisky’s 1+1, also played his part.

One of the greatest coups achieved against Kolomoisky was the 2016 nationalization of his greatest asset, the sprawling Privat banking empire. As enormous as it is opaque, in classic Kolomoisky style. And so in 2019, Kolomoisky played no small part in the election of Mr Zelensky. It didn’t save him in the end or return Privat to him, but he had to try.

Back in 2022, I wrote a series of articles arguing that the storied rule of Ukraine’s oligarchy was coming to an end. There were three reasons why I argued this.

To begin with, the objective force of war was physically destroying their assets. Mariupol’s Azovstal factory, belonging to Ukraine’s richest man, Rinat Akhmetov, being just one example. Besides such dramatic instances, each week brings a new Russian missile strike on various jewels of the Soviet industrial complex. And now, the frontline creeps ever closer to Pokrovsk, the site of Ukraine’s last coal coking mine.

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Second, it seemed like Ukraine’s pro-western, comprador clientele were gaining in power. With the government more dependent than ever on western military aid, it seemed that the western-funded NGOs and their cadres were gaining influence in government. And indeed, in 2023-4 at least, a number of influential NGO figures were given various official positions.

And it also seemed that the Ukrainian government would be forced to comply with the reform demands of the EU and IMF. These reforms all revolve around the opening of the Ukrainian market to transnational capital - in other words, the extinction of the domestic oligarch class.

Finally, Zelensky’s wartime powers seemed to leave no economic elite safe. In mid-2023, Zelensky imprisoned Igor Kolomoisky and severed his control over much of his economic empire. Kolomoisky, prior to 2019 Zelensky’s employer, had been one of the richest and most powerful men in the country. Besides Kolomoisky, Zelensky has continued relentlessly sanctioning a number of business elites.

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But three years into the war, has the oligarchy really disappeared?

This question has deep significance. It is the question of the extent to which a Ukrainian elite capable of making its own decisions still exists. At stake is war and peace.

The fact that Zelensky has continued his age-old struggle against the western-funded NGO clientele (a pastime beloved by all Ukrainian presidents, no matter how pro-western they present themselves) should be a sign. Throughout 2024 Zelensky put pressure on a number of well-known activists through threats of mobilization, threats seemingly put into practice this year. Many of those who received positions in government had to either betray their ultra-liberal reform principles or were removed. For instance, infrastructure minister Oleksandr Kubrakov was removed in mid-2024, despite the repeated warnings by US ambassador Brink.

And, of course, in late July Zelensky even tried to remove the ‘independence’ of the most well-known western-created ‘anti-corruption organs’. Though he gave up with that most blatant tactic, I’ve written here about the ongoing pressure placed by Zelensky’s security services on the anti-corruption community. The latter believe that Zelensky is set on destroying them, and was only forced to stop in late July due to European threats to cut financial aid.

That saga is simply one symptom of the broader trend - the war hasn’t transformed Ukrainian society as much as it has simply intensified its contradiction.

No, the oligarchy hasn’t disappeared. Instead, it has actually managed to get richer in wartime. The government has captured the assets of some, strengthening its power and transforming the president’s coterie into a new oligarchic clan. But in general, the old elites have survived, healthier than ever, with just one ambiguous exception.

In what follows, I’ll begin by taking a look at the economic fortunes of Ukraine’s three richest men - Rinat Akhmetov, Viktor Pinchuk, and Petro Poroshenko. Paradoxically, they have actually managed to drastically increase their fortunes in wartime, ending 2024 with greater financial valuations than 2021.

After that, I’ll explore the varying political strategies of the business elite in wartime. Though they have given up more traditional forms of political influence, loyal parliamentarians or media groups are less relevant than ever in a Ukraine whose political processes are becoming increasingly opaque and militarized. And it is precisely in opaque, militarized politics that the old-new oligarchs have reinvested.

Finally, we’ll take a look at the only Ukrainian oligarch to truly lose out in wartime - Igor Kolomoisky. We’ll discuss some reasons why he was imprisoned in 2023, and whether this imprisonment may have actually been a blessing in disguise.

Finally, we’ll examine the extent to which even the richest oligarchs, those most loyal to Zelensky, could eventually abandon their newfound presidential loyalty, as well as the means available to them in doing so.

(Paywall with free option.)

https://eventsinukraine.substack.com/p/ ... archs-back

Russian troops encircled?

Frontline update - Dobropillia, Kupyansk, Novopavlivka. Fortification issues, New Donbas Line breached?
Events in Ukraine
Sep 28, 2025

Back in August, the Russian army achieved a breakthrough in the frontlines of unprecedented scale in this war, advancing over 15 kilometers in just a few days. Subsequently, Ukraine sent its best troops to cauterize what has been dubbed the Dobropillia salient.

Absent further dramatic Russian advances, Ukrainian and western media has shifted towards the narrative that Russian troops are encircled. Just a few days ago, the Times got to work on what it loves most - glazing Ukraine’s most ideologically unhinged Azovite nationalists as the country’s most unstoppable warriors.

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Ukrainian media claims that Russian forces in the furthermost part of the Dobropillia salient have been encircled since mid-August (the red spot around Kucheriv Yar in the map below). If true, that would make the Russian troops holding out in this encirclement seem highly impressive.

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Head of the army Oleksandr Syrsky reiterated his claim of Russian encirclement on Friday:

The plan was to cut the enemy grouping along the barrier line — the Kazennyi Torets River [drawn below - EIU]. That way the enemy units that had advanced inland found themselves in a kind of “pocket.” At the same time we sealed that line with actions by our Air Assault units converging from the north and south. The enemy was trapped. It is now effectively being destroyed.

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But as we will see today, Ukrainian servicemen themselves doubt the narrative that Russian troops around Dobropillia have been encircled and cut off from their comrades. And in fact, if the same standards for ‘encirclement’ are applied consistently, then it is Ukraine which is at risk of it along the frontlines.

First, a map of the whole frontline. The circles and letters correspond to today’s topics.

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Today’s topics:

— Why large-scale encirclements of infantry are largely impossible in conditions of drone warfare

— The ‘encirclement’ of Ukrainian logistics by Russian drones in a 45 by 45 kilometer ‘pocket’ in the Kharkiv region (A)

— The real situation around Dobropillia (B)

— New Russian advances in the southern part of the Donetsk oblast - Ukrainian militarists report that the crucial ‘New Donbas Line’ of fortifications have been breached (C)

— Why Ukrainian militarists are so pessimistic about the defense of the Kharkiv region city of Kupyansk (D). There is particular rage from Ukrainian militarists that forced evacuation has not been conducted, allowing Russian troops to blend in with the local population.

— The latest complaints about irrationally built fortifications that expose infantry to drones

(Paywall with free option.)

https://eventsinukraine.substack.com/p/ ... -encircled

*****

Absolutely Is.

It has been already documented--the new launch positions by 404 for obtained Geran and Gerbera loitering munitions which will fly ... into Poland, among other NATO destinations. So, when Larry asks if 404 is readying a false-flag--the answer is unequivocal "Yes".


According to the available information, the Kyiv regime’s plan is as follows:

Repair several downed or intercepted Russian UAVs.
Equip them with a combat warhead.
Send UAVs controlled by Ukrainian specialists — disguised as “Russian drones” — to major NATO transport hubs in Poland and Romania.
Simultaneously conduct a disinformation campaign in Europe to blame everything on Moscow.
Ignite an armed conflict between the Russian Federation and NATO


It is always the same scenario for NATO and their terrorist SOBs in 404. The remnants of this Nazi shithole and its willing accomplices are being steadily consumed by Russia's war machine and it cannot be reversed.

Meanwhile Russia continues to decommunize 404 by means of getting it back to pre-1917 state and here is one of the substations near Chernigov being visited by Gerans. (Video at link.)

Ah, yes, those high power transformers, 404 doesn't produce them, so the only way is to beg Germany which will not need electricity soon anyway.

(More at link.)

http://smoothiex12.blogspot.com/2025/09 ... ly-is.html
"There is great chaos under heaven; the situation is excellent."

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blindpig
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Re: Footnotes from the Ukrainian "Crisis"; New High-Points in Cynicism Part V

Post by blindpig » Tue Sep 30, 2025 11:41 am

The worse, the better
Posted by @nsanzo ⋅ 09/30/2025

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"Trump loves a victor, that's why he's sided with Ukraine," Polish Foreign Minister Radek Sikorski, husband of propagandist Anne Applebaum—known in the past for advocating "killing the messenger" (Palestinian journalists) and for her anti-communist and anti-Russian obsession—and remembered for celebrating the attack on the Nord Stream with a "thank you, USA" statement, boasted with all his arrogance. Hawks are smiling again at the certainty that the war is not only not heading, as they feared during the week of the Alaska summit, toward an agreement between the United States and Russia, nor even toward the ceasefire they reluctantly accepted when they didn't want it, but toward a significant deterioration. Without fully defining what winning means, a concept that must be left open in order to defend the claim that there has been a form of victory no matter how the war ends, diplomats like Sikorski cling to this idea to appeal to Donald Trump, vain, competitive, and currently manipulated by a version of the war that doesn't correspond to reality.

The US president's change of heart, whether legitimate or the negotiating strategy suggested last week by several media outlets, is conducive both to a sharp increase in rearguard attacks and to the greatest possible exercise of warmongering lobbying. Both scenarios are already occurring in parallel and coordinated fashion. "A strictly symmetrical response to Russia's attacks on infrastructure and its terror will accelerate the path to ending the war. The price for Russia will be high: it will feel the consequences of its military strategy, based on killing civilians. This is no longer 2022 with aerial terror," Andriy Ermak wrote yesterday. The head of the President's Office boasted about the Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries, which in reality are not a tit-for-tat, following the bombings on Sunday or in recent weeks, but began months ago. As Zelensky has admitted, Russia protects its military industry, so Kiev has focused on undermining Russia's economic potential. He has done so in such a way that he hasn't minded damaging key oil pipelines that supply oil to some of his own European Union allies, from whom he demands military, economic, and energy assistance and repays for that aid by depriving himself of receiving any of his own.

"From today on, there will be no safe place in Russia: Ukrainian weapons will reach any Russian military facility," boasted Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andriy Sibiha yesterday, hours after the use of long-range missiles—some sources point to American ATACMS and others to Ukrainian Neptunes—was confirmed in the attacks on Sunday night in Bryansk Oblast , where Kiev attacked a factory specializing in the production of electrical connectors, cables, electrotechnical components, and electronic warfare equipment. Without considering whether the increase in bombings of Russia's rear will also lead to an increase in Russian attacks against Ukraine, which Kiev will subsequently use to justify more military supplies and an even greater escalation, Zelensky's team announces what already seems written: the return to the strategy of making the war as bad as possible in the hope that Russia will give up.

The argument is based on the exaggeration of Russia's military, economic, and social weakness and on the fallacy that Moscow refuses to negotiate with Ukraine, an option it has never been offered and which kyiv rejects. This is demonstrated by Turkey's conversations and Zelensky's game of negotiation with Vladimir Putin. In the talks held in Istanbul by the Russian and Ukrainian delegations, the Ukrainian president himself confirmed his order not to negotiate political aspects beyond the acceptance of the ceasefire that the European ultimatum naively sought to impose. As a compromise option, aware that nothing can be resolved, or even negotiated, in a meeting of presidents in which there is not even a roadmap to negotiate, Zelensky proposes a summit with his Russian counterpart, which also includes Donald Trump. The Ukrainian president demands that Vladimir Putin accept this meeting and declares his unconditional willingness to attend. However, the Ukrainian president usually adds later that he must first get the West to define the security guarantees it is committed to providing Ukraine beyond the war. For kyiv, the priority negotiation has never been with Russia, but with its Western allies, from whom it subsequently demands that, regardless of the outcome of the war, they obtain for Ukraine what has been agreed upon.

“We, the foreign ministers of France, Germany, and Poland, reaffirm our unity and our unwavering determination to defend the peace, security, and common fundamental values ​​of Europe in the face of the war of aggression being waged by Russia. The recent violations of Polish, Romanian, and Estonian airspace were reckless and hostile acts, as well as an unacceptable escalation that threatens regional and European stability. We condemn these provocations and urge the Russian Federation to cease such actions, immediately end its war of aggression against Ukraine, and enter into peace negotiations on the terms agreed with Kyiv,” wrote the joint statement from the three countries’ heads of diplomacy yesterday, demanding that Russia begin negotiations under terms that even Ukraine has not yet defined.

To get Russia to sit at the nonexistent negotiating table that the West is demanding, the few incentives the United States was able to offer have been exhausted. These incentives were limited to the possible return of American companies—something that primarily benefited Washington—and a roadmap presented by Steve Witkoff that was on the table for only a few days. Although at the time it was clear that this was the most favorable proposal the Kremlin was likely to obtain, as it entailed American (though not European) recognition of Crimea's sovereignty and the lifting of sanctions (American, not European), these concessions came with the trade-off of having to accept security guarantees as Ukraine is proposing them, that is, with a NATO military presence on the territory. Considered excessively pro-Russian, the supposedly final proposal was replaced by the one presented by kyiv and European capitals, which was even more unworkable.

Keith Kellogg, Trump's envoy for Ukraine, played an important role in this rapid shift. Kellogg, Trump's envoy for Ukraine, appears to have noticeably revived his Ukrainian lobbying work in recent hours. Coinciding with yesterday's Ukrainian attack, the general appeared on Fox News, a way of publicly addressing the US president through his preferred channel. "The opportunity to challenge Russia. They can do it more decisively. And they have the weapons systems to do so. They never asked for US troops. They don't need US troops on the ground. But what they really need are weapons, capabilities, and the authority to use them. If they get that, that will be fantastic. It will be welcomed," Kellogg said. “The situation is ambiguous. Sometimes they are granted some authority, sometimes they aren't. And I think everyone should pay close attention to what the president says. He is the commander-in-chief under the Constitution, and everyone obeys his decisions. If the president says 'left,' then we go left. If he says 'right,' then we go right. So, when the president says something needs to be done, you just have to do it and carry it out,” he added, responding to the question of whether Ukraine has permission to use the US weapons at its disposal now or in the future following acquisitions from European NATO countries.

Kellogg's words sound like a warning to those sectors that, from their position as anti-China hawks and supporters of focusing all resources on containing the true enemy, advocate seeking an agreement with Russia to end the war in Ukraine. Although he doesn't mention his name, it's not difficult to see in Kellogg's words a message to Elbridge Colby, the Pentagon's number three and responsible for shaping policy issues for the Department of Defense (now the War Department under Donald Trump). Colby has been the go-to person in recent months when the Pentagon has taken measures such as suspending the shipment of key weapons to Ukraine or insisting on the need to prioritize regions outside of Europe.

In his speech, General Kellogg cited the words of J.D. Vance, whose change of heart is even more striking than Trump's. Vice President Vance, a member of Donald Trump Jr.'s inner circle, who has made highly negative statements about Ukraine in the past, was the person who provoked the Oval Office incident by accusing Zelensky of ingratitude and playing for World War III. However, in his Sunday appearance on the U.S. News , Vance admitted that the United States is seriously considering selling Tomahawks to European countries, which would then be sent to Ukraine. With a range of 1,500 miles, the Tomahawks are the new miracle weapon that Zelensky is demanding and with which he has threatened, not Russia in general, but the Kremlin in particular. An impossible dream even during the Biden administration, even the most radical hawks, such as former Lithuanian Foreign Minister Gabrielius Landsbergis, until now considered obtaining such missiles a very remote possibility, but a request that, just in case, was worth pursuing. Aware that with Donald Trump, positions don't have to be permanent, the hawks are trying to use their time and make the situation even worse based on the maxim that the worse, the better .

https://slavyangrad.es/2025/09/30/cuanto-peor-mejor/

Google Translator

******

From Cassad's Telegram account:

Colonelcassad
SVR. Kyiv is preparing a new high-profile provocation

. According to information received by the Russian SVR, the Kyiv regime, following the drone provocations it staged in the airspace of Poland and Romania, is continuing its attempts to draw European NATO countries into an armed confrontation with Moscow. Another provocation is in the works. This time, the plot revolves around a sabotage and reconnaissance group (SRG) deployed to Polish territory, allegedly consisting of Russian and Belarusian special forces personnel. Candidates for participation in the staging have been selected. These are militants from the "Freedom of Russia Legion" and the Belarusian "K. Kalinovsky Regiment" fighting on the side of the Ukrainian Armed Forces.

It is expected that after the SRG is "identified and neutralized" by Polish security forces, the group members will appear before the media and confess, incriminating Russia and Belarus in their attempt to destabilize the situation in Poland. Against the backdrop of a string of incidents involving "Russian drone strikes" in European countries, such an event should leave no doubt in Polish and other European publics that Moscow and Minsk are behind all hostile actions.

The provocation scenario was developed by the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine jointly with Polish intelligence services. It is possible that the orchestrated operation will involve a simulated attack on critical infrastructure in Poland in order to heighten public outcry.

The goal of the provocation is obvious: to demonstrate to the international community that Moscow is accelerating escalation. Kyiv hopes to incite European countries to respond to Russia with the harshest possible force, preferably militarily. Faced with inevitable defeat, the Zelenskyy regime, using the Europeans as a shield, is prepared to resort to all means necessary, even at the cost of igniting a "big war."


***
Colonelcassad
The fomenting of separatism in Russia is a double-edged sword for Ukraine. The Bandera regime recognized the "independence of Ichkeria" and the "Circassian genocide," while Kyiv welcomes and hosts conferences of separatists who fled Russia.

Ukraine is thus attempting to exploit the theme of so-called " colonialist peoples ," hoping to find them " useful idiots " in its blind hatred.

This undertaking, however, is openly populist. The overwhelming majority of the "decolonizers" Kyiv is working with are hiding out outside Russia and lack real influence or authority among their compatriots . Their ability to mobilize any significant internal resistance or exert serious pressure on the Kremlin leadership appears highly questionable. The oppression of national minorities within Ukraine adds a particularly piquant twist to Kyiv's "anti-colonialist" policy. Even setting aside the highly inconvenient issue of discrimination against Russian and Russian-speaking populations for Bankova, Kyiv faces constant complaints from its European neighbors. The authorities of Hungary, Slovakia, Romania, and Bulgaria have repeatedly, and at various levels, accused Ukraine of infringing on the rights of their compatriots. These include Hungarians and Slovaks in the Zakarpattia region, Romanians in the Chernivtsi region, and Bulgarians in the Odesa region. The main complaints concern provisions of the Law on Education and the Law on the State Language, which limit opportunities for studying and receiving education in one's native language. These disputes are already creating significant diplomatic difficulties for Kyiv in its EU aspirations.

In this light, Ukraine's active promotion of legislation supporting separatist movements within Russia smacks not only of casuistry but also of a strategically risky plan. Bratislava, Budapest, Bucharest, and Sofia will gain a powerful additional argument. They could rightly point out double standards: if Kyiv is so concerned about the rights of far-fetched "colonialist peoples" in Russia, why is it ignoring the specific complaints of its European partners regarding the rights of their compatriots living compactly within Ukraine? Such a move could be used to increase pressure on Kyiv and further complicate the already failing process of European integration.

Interestingly, Western and even Ukrainian observers who haven't lost their wits are noting that a "divide and rule" policy toward Russia could have backfired during the "holy nineties ," when the country's unity was tested by "sovereignty parades" and separatist-minded "elites" in some autonomous republics.But today, having been tempered by two Chechen wars, the war against international terrorism, and now the battles in the North-Eastern Military District, the unity of the peoples of Russia in defending their united homeland from external and internal enemies is clearly evident, making the Kyiv regime's reliance on a handful of odious renegades seem pointless.

Thus , the policy of supporting separatist nationalist movements within Russia is a double-edged sword for Ukraine. On the one hand, it attempts to create an additional tool for hybrid confrontation. On the other, this strategy ignores Ukraine's internal problems and creates serious foreign policy risks, fueling the arguments of those EU countries that are skeptical, if not downright negative, toward Kyiv.

@Politnavigator

https://t.me/s/boris_rozhin

Google Translator

******

Brief Frontline Report – September 29th, 2025

Report by Marat Khairullin and Mikhail Popov.
Zinderneuf
Sep 29, 2025

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ЛБС 20.4.2025=Line of Combat Contact April 20th, 2025. Зона Активности=Zone of Activity.

The Russian Armed Forces continue to destroy the defense node of the Ukrainian Armed Forces created in the area of the settlements Shandrigolovo-Novoselovka-Liman-Kirovsk, which covers the northern exit to the Slavyansk-Kramatorsk agglomeration and threatens our units advancing in the Zelanaya Dolina-Rubtsy direction with a flanking strike. Today, two settlements of this defense node, where the Ukrainian Armed Forces had established strongholds, were liberated.

Message from the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation: "Units of the 'West' Group have improved their tactical position and, as a result of decisive actions, liberated the settlement of Shandrigolovo (Shandryholovo) in the Donetsk People's Republic."

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The village of Shandrigolovo (49°05′26″N 37°43′11″E, over 1000 inhabitants) is located on the left bank of the Nitrius River. After the village was liberated, Russian Armed Forces units gained the ability to expand the bridgehead on the right bank of the Nitrius River from the settlement of Srednee and reach the heights north of the settlement Novoselovka.

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caption...

Our units control the exit to the Popov Yar ravine (Popov Yar Beam on the map). All this allows for the encirclement of the settlement Novoselovka. The right flank of our positions in the settlement Derilovo has been strengthened, enabling actions from this position against the Ukrainian Armed Forces defense area in Drobyshevo. Novoselovka and Drobyshevo are large settlements with a developed road system, covering the Izium-Liman railway branch.

Message from the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation: "In the Krasny Liman direction, as a result of offensive actions, the 'West' Group liberated the settlement of Kirovsk (Zarechnoe) in the Donetsk People's Republic."

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ЛБС 01.11.2024=Line of Combat Contact November 1st, 2024. ЛБС 01.01.2025=Line of Combat Contact January 1st, 2025. Зона Активности=Zone of Activity.*

The settlement of Kirovsk (49°01′10″N 37°55′15″E, about 2500 inhabitants) is a large defensive position area that protected the eastern approach to the city of Liman (Krasny Liman). After its liberation, the Ukrainian Armed Forces group in the settlement Stavki found itself under threat of encirclement and will be forced to retreat to Drobyshevo and Liman.

The success of the Russian Armed Forces in this sector provides the Russian command with operational freedom to choose the following actions depending on the "behavior" of the Ukrainian Armed Forces:

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1. Advancing westward along Rubtsy-Oskol and a deep encirclement of the southern base of the Borovaya salient of the Ukrainian Armed Forces with control over crossings of the Oskol River (big red arrow in the top center);

2. Advancing southward from Shandrigolovo to Donetskoe to the northern borders of the Slavyansk-Kramatorsk positional area of the Ukrainian Armed Forces (big red arrow bottom center);

3. Creating a deep encirclement of the city of Liman (Krasny Liman) from the west and east and cutting the logostical line between Liman and Seversk.

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I pulled a map showing the relation of Liman to Seversk from the September 23rd report.

https://maratkhairullin.substack.com/p/ ... tember-bbd

******

Ben Aris: Ukraine’s coming financial storm
September 29, 2025 natyliesb
By Ben Aris, Intellinews, 9/16/25

“A crisis is drawing ever closer. It will break in Ukraine, but it won’t begin on the frontlines, where the country’s battle-weary brigades continue to impose a brutal cost on the Russian invader. The coming crisis is brewing in the West, where the US pullback and European hesitation now threaten a financial disaster,” Timothy Ash, the senior sovereign strategist at BlueBay Asset Management in London wrote in a note for Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA) on September 16.

As bne IntelliNews reported, Ukraine faces the risk of falling off a financial cliff this year. The problem is that the government is short $8bn-$19bn to cover the projected deficit this year. The Finance Ministry has been warning for over a year that it needs more help from its Western allies to pay for the war. It is running a deficit of about $50bn a year and the projected unfunded short fall for 2026 is $37.5bn, but the International Monetary Fund (IMF) team in Kyiv this week for funding talks, said that it thinks Kyiv needs an additional $10bn-$20bn next year: Ukraine spent $97bn in 2025, but is on track to spend $120bn in 2026.

Where will this money come from? Raising it from Ukraine’s allies has become next to impossible now that the US has essentially withdrawn all support for Ukraine. As bne IntelliNews reported, Europe can’t afford to take over the burden of supporting Ukraine entirely on its own, as most EU countries are either in recession or approaching a crisis. The rising debt amongst the G7 countries has already caused a bond market storm and France’s government collapsed last week under the weight of an intractable 5.7% of GDP budget deficit. And both the UK and France are close to debt crises of their own that may end in a Greek-style IMF bailout. Coming up with an additional $58bn next year for Ukraine from EU coffers is no longer possible.

“IMF messaging suggests that its prior conclusions that Ukraine’s gross budget and balance of payments financing needs over the four-year duration of the program were just $150bn were way too optimistic,” says Ash. “The financing currently available is inadequate to meet Ukraine’s impending needs. A swift change of course is needed if a financial cataclysm is to be averted.”

Europe has committed just under $170bn to Ukraine since the start of the war – more than the US, which has spent just under $100bn, according to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy. On paper it is more. US President Donald Trump claimed earlier this year the US has committed over $350bn, but after Bankova checked the numbers the official allocations by Congress amounted to $196bn, but at least $100bn of that never arrived, Zelenskiy said in March. And since he took office, the Trump administration has sent next to nothing.

“Underpinning the Fund’s macro and financing framework was the assumption that the war would begin to wind down this year, and hence, Ukraine’s financing needs would also significantly reduce,” says Ash.

No end to the war in sight

That is clearly not going to happen. The ceasefire talks that kicked off in Riyadh on February 18 have gone nowhere after Russian President Vladimir Putin made impossible claims and Trump has flip flopped on the shape of the possible peace deal. As bne IntelliNews opined, there are two sets of talks going one: the Trump administration has threatened Russia with extreme secondary sanctions but at the same time kept the door open to sanctions relief and business deals to tap Russia’s mineral riches.

Since the full-scale invasion, Ukraine has been running budget deficits equivalent to $3bn-$4bn a month, most of which has been covered by IMF and Western financing. Assuming that the war would essentially end in 2025, the Fund had presumed the budget deficit and financing needs would more or less halve in 2026, and then fall to a fraction of this in 2027. “It was a heroic assumption, and it was wrong,” says Ash.

This problem has been apparent for a while, yet the IMF has yet to recalibrate its model that sets the agenda for the size of its funding programme.

It is becoming increasingly obvious that the Kremlin has no interest in peace talks, as it continues to make steady, albeit slow, progress on the battlefield. At the same time, after three years of heavy investment, its military production is now producing more materiel than it needs so that the process of restocking has begun as Russia starts to rebuild its military capacity. The peace talk efforts came to a definite end last week when presidential spokesman Dmitry Peskov officially put ceasefire talks on hold on September 12.

The expectations are now moving towards a long war, which implies much higher long-run financing needs, says Ash. On September 11, EU foreign affairs chief Kaja Kallas said that she expected the war to continue for at least another two years. Others have speculated that Putin will simply continue until Ukraine collapses completely or Zelenskiy capitulates, however long that takes. Time is on his side.

A lot of attention has been paid to Russia’s economic problems, which are getting worse, but with inflation falling much faster than expected – the core macro problem – thanks to CBR governor Elvia Nabiullina’s unorthodox plan to artificially cool the economy, growth will slow this year before it starts to recover next year, according to the CBR’s latest outlook.

The Kremlin is also short of money. This year’s budget deficit is ballooning, but the government has already started a discussion on raising VAT and it also has some RUB20 trillion in banking sector liquidity to tap to cover a deficit of up to RUB5 trillion now expected for this year. In short, the Kremlin has access to enough money to keep the war up for several more years.

IMF’s blinkered approach

The IMF has acknowledged that its previous estimate was wrong. It now says that an anticipated additional $10bn-$20bn will be needed by its Extended Fund Facility (EFF) by the end of 2027. Ukraine’s Finance Ministry put the number at $37bn. “Both could prove significant underestimates,” says Ash.

Ash argues that both the government and IMF take a “blinkered” approach to estimating Ukraine’s financing needs. They focus only on budget and balance of payments requirements. That excludes the broader, but essential, military support. Using the data from the Kiel Institute of the World Economy, Ash estimates that the annual cost of the war to the West of supporting Ukraine has been nearer to $100bn annually— more than double IMF estimates.

Finding new IMF funding for Ukraine will have to clear several hurdles. It will need to get reassurance that it can be financed to get a sign off from shareholders.

“In other words, that the numbers add up. Even to meet the IMF’s narrow focus on budget financing needs, the West will have to come up with $20bn-$37bn in new funding, just to take the country to the end of the program in March 2027,” says Ash, and that means calculating on spending $100bn for at least another three years.

The Biden administration used to cover about 40% of Ukraine’s financing needs, but with the Trump administration now out of the game, this very considerable annual funding requirement will fall squarely on Europe.

“Europe cannot and will not pick up this bill,” says Ash. “The harsh political, social, and economic reality across the continent means there is no realistic possibility of Ukraine receiving such a long-term financing commitment. Europe is struggling with rising budget deficits, subdued growth, competing demands for defence and social needs, and a populist tide demanding spending at home. The situation is now serious.”

Ash speculates that the IMF shareholders might nix any proposal to even increase funding by another $20bn in the short-term, which would quickly precipitate a crisis. And would immediately raise doubts about Ukraine’s ability to continue its defence against Russian attacks.

“Europe needs a plan B, but in truth, that’s really now actually Plan A. For more than three years, Europe has ignored the very obvious solution to its problem,” says Ash.

CBR money

Ash, and many others, have been advocating for several years to seize the $300bn of frozen Central Bank of Russia (CBR) assets and use them to pay for the war. The idea came up again most recently at a meeting of EU foreign ministers in Copenhagen on September 1, but was ultimately rejected. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen also brought it up during her EU State of the Union address (video, transcript) on September 10, but said the idea was now off the table.

The problem is that the money is frozen, but technically it still belongs to the Bank of Russia. Confiscating it – taking ownership and spending it – as opposed to just freezing it, would undermine confidence in both the euro and the European banking system, say critics – something that central bankers in Europe are not prepared to do. In the meantime, von der Leyen has suggested that the money can be used more “creatively” and invested into some sort of “victory bonds” to generate more revenues. The profits from the assets have already been used to underpin a $50bn G7 loan for Ukraine, the Extraordinary Revenue Acceleration (ERA) scheme, but that loan is already nearly fully distributed.

While the EU leaders are very unhappy about seizing the CBR’s money, faced with the prospect of a Russian military victory in Ukraine, the pressure to grab those funds will clearly build steadily.

“All roads lead back to the issue of freezing, seizing, and using the $330bn in Central Bank of Russia CBR) assets in Western jurisdictions,” says Ash. “This money would amply finance Ukraine’s defence needs for a long war and send a powerful signal that Ukraine can ride out Putin’s long-war scenario and his own failing economy. This would increase the Kremlin’s risk in continuing its war of aggression, and quite possibly force it to the negotiating table.”

“Opponents of the need to seize Russia’s CBR assets have an armory of excuses, although none is very persuasive. Such arguments are, anyway, less effective the worse Ukraine’s financing dilemma becomes,” Ash argues, highlighting the dilemma that Europe is now facing. “And while these critics aim to explain what they think won’t work, there are no suggestions about what will.”

A crisis is coming

A crisis is drawing nearer. Relying on European taxpayer support is no longer sustainable. The political fallout from the drain on Europe’s economies and the ballooning deficits and debt is already visible, fuelling a popular backlash and the rise of the far-right parties in Europe. Germany’s AfD (Alternative für Deutschland) just tripled its share of the vote in a German regional election this weekend, taking 15% of the vote in North Rhine-Westphalia, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s home state. The AfD are now leading in the national polls. Similar things are happening in the rest of the EU.

“And yet the alternative of Ukrainian bankruptcy and defeat is a terrifying spectre for the continent,” says Ash. “If that happens, Europe would be faced by many, many millions of Ukrainians moving West, further straining its social, economic, and political fabric. The consequences get worse the more closely they are examined.”

Ash goes on to paint a grim picture of what Europe would look like if Ukraine loses: Europe’s two largest military industrial complexes would fall into the Kremlin’s hands; European defence spending would need to immediately rise to the 5% of GDP; budget deficits and borrowing needs would soar; interest rates across Europe would rise; and real GDP growth would slow.

“The opponents of seizing CBR assets, particularly Belgium, Euroclear, and the European Central Bank (ECB), need to detail their exact plan for the defence of Europe if Russia’s billions are left unused,” says Ash. For now, all we can see is blank faces — they have no plan.”

The flaw with this argument is that it assumes the only solution is to fund Ukraine to continue the war in the equally vain hope that the Russian economy will eventually collapse or that Trump will get back into the game and impose such tough sanctions on Russia, Putin will be forced to the negotiating table – an equally unlikely scenario.

In the short-term the only immediately available scenario that will end the war is that Zelenskiy accepts the terms that the Kremlin has laid out at the various rounds of talks this year along the lines of the failed 2022 Istanbul peace deal. It is effectively the Finlandisation of Ukraine where it gives up 20% of its territory, returns to neutrality, and promises never to join Nato. There are some tough choices ahead, and none of the alternatives are particularly palatable.

https://natyliesbaldwin.com/2025/09/ben ... ial-storm/

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The New ‘Donor-Nomics’ in Ukraine, Thanks to Western Governments and Their Taxpayers
September 28, 2025

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Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in the backdrop of war scenes. Illustration: Mahdi Rteil/Al-Mayadeen English.


by Dmitri Kovalevich – Sep 26, 2025

Ukraine’s elite cling to Western aid, ignoring military collapse, while Zelensky pushes conflict with Russia and seeks to involve other countries to sustain his regime.

In the second half of September 2025, military and political leaders in Ukraine are in unanimous agreement that the military situation in the country continues to deteriorate. But the public messaging by Kiev regime president Volodomyr Zelensky continues to insist that Ukraine will “win the war.”

Detached from reality
Foreign Policy magazine claims otherwise in a report published on September 16, headlined “Zelensky is losing touch with reality.” The report begins: “In the course of the last month, Ukraine’s government has pushed two significant measures related to one of its most glaring weaknesses: its strained armed forces. Yet its attempts to ease the strains have landed awkwardly in Ukraine, leaving some observers wondering whether President Volodymyr Zelensky and his circle of advisors are adequately in touch with reality beyond the corridors of power in Kiev…”

The discordance is noted by Ukrainians as well. “Zelensky has overstayed his president’s term and has lost touch with reality. We have no independent legislature governing us that could say ‘stop,’ only the will of Zelensky. He believes himself to be the Churchill of our times, where everything is decided by him alone, together with a few of his ‘efficient’ managers,” writes Darya Kalenyuk on September 17. She is a journalist, a lawyer, and the executive director in Ukraine of the Center for Countering Corruption.

That same day, Ukrainian legislators and pro-regime analysts were gushing about the results of a closed meeting by Zelensky with his Servant of the People political machine and other invited legislators on September 16. According to legislator Yaroslav Zheleznyak of the Golos political faction, Zelensky told the meeting that his regime refuses to consider ceding any territory in the Donbas region to Russia. The regime continues to refuse any recognition of the expressed will of the people of the former Ukrainian oblasts (provinces) of Lugansk and Donetsk since 2014 for either a meaningful autonomy within Ukraine or secession and joining the Russian Federation.

As later reported by Zheleznyak, Zelensky told legislators that the military situation in Ukraine “is developing normally” and Russian forces will eventually be defeated.

The people of the two former Ukrainian oblasts voted definitively in September 2022 to join the Russian Federation. For them and for the Russian government, the future is decided, and there is no going back. (Proposals were also approved at that time by referendum for affiliation to the Russian Federation by the people of the “new Russian territories” of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia, south and east of the Dnieper River.)

According to Zheleznyak, Zelensky also told the closed meeting that people regularly complain about him to Western embassies, and the embassies then forward the complaints to him. If true, this is a remarkable description of how Western embassies act. It is not difficult to imagine the regime forwarding such complaints to its various police agencies.

Another participant in the meeting on September 16 was legislator Oleksandr Fedienko. He writes that Zelensky raised the topic of legislative elections. Fedienko also notes that whereas many observers are now predicting that an election will take place in Ukraine in the near future, Zelensky dismissed the idea at the meeting.

The last legislative and presidential elections to take place in Ukraine were in April 2019, for five-year terms. The electoral mandates of Zelensky and the Verkhovna Rada (legislature) thus expired a full 18 months ago.

Strana online media outlet reports on Telegram on September 17 about another legislator from Zelensky’s party who was present at the meeting, George Mazurashu. He said afterward, “Volodomyr Zelensky [along with others exempt from conscription] made it clear that he intends to fight to the last, but, of course, using other people to do the fighting.”

These days in Ukraine, such statements are considered simple statements of fact, considering that Zelensky and his entourage play no direct part in hostilities and thus face no direct threat to their lives. People also see and read in their words desperate attempts to prolong the war with Russia by involving other countries in the hostilities.

How to perpetuate Western funding for the Ukrainian elite
Meanwhile, the Ukrainian political elite is actively engaged in ensuring not so much the talked-about ‘security guarantees’ for Ukraine but guarantees of continued Western revenues (thus permitting the elite’s own, continued maintenance). This elite is continuously dreaming of how much it can continue to receive from Western “partners” (that is, from the taxpayers of Western, “partner” governments).

In mid-September, the Kiev regime’s cabinet of ministers presented a draft budget for the following year, and it once again envisions no spending on a national election, neither legislative nor presidential. The projected Ukrainian national budget for 2026 turns out to be not only record-breaking in expenditure but also extremely odd in failing to provide certain details.

The main oddity at the present time is a now-recognized “hole” of some UAH300 billion (US$7.3 billion) in funding of military expenditure for the closing months of 2025. The “hole” is due to sharp increases in payments being made to the families of soldiers killed or injured, so-called “coffin payments.” The duration of payments may now be extended to 80 months (6.5 years), during which time the Ukrainian currency is expected to be seriously devalued (and, most likely, a different government will be responsible for dealing with the entire mess of government funding and expenditure bequeathed by the Zelensky regime and its Western “partners”).

Social expenditures, including payment of pensions, the social costs of radical, ultra-nationalist policies, repairs of roads and other infrastructure, all these budget items are expected to be fully and completely financed by Western benefactors. That will mean, first and foremost, payments coming from the leading EU governments. These are already warning their populations to tighten their belts and expect big cuts to social spending.



The new phenomenon of “donor-nomics” in Ukraine
On September 18, the former head of the Ukraine National Bank, Kyrylo Shevchenko, penned a new term for the economic model now firmly implanted in Ukraine, calling it “donor-nomics.” He writes that this is “a completely new type of economy and economic policy, completely dependent on external aid.” Its essence is a budget deficit of more than 20% of GDP, with this being covered not by internal resources but by external grants and loans.

“If in a conventional economy, the main goal is to create added value, under donor-nomics, the main goal is to maintain the confidence of donors so that each tranche of new funding may flow smoothly,” writes Shevchenko.

Legislator Yaroslav Zheleznyak admits that not only legislators in Ukraine but also appointed ministers are primarily engaged in creating projects that no one has the funding, nor perhaps even the intention to implement. Financing of projects is being determined by the whims and interests of donors, principally from Western governments.

Zheleznyak says that for six years (since 2019), Ukraine has been overwhelmed with high-profile strategies and programs for change, but these have remained “on paper” only. Authorities have presented more than 20 state programs during these six years, ranging from national security, including cybersecurity, to regional development. But none of them has ever been realized in real life. “These programs exist only in promises, presentations, and press releases by officials. In practice, citizens do not see any changes and improvements in life,” the legislator writes, stressing that what happens instead are “political imitations” of real projects. He calls this “imitation of work.”

The problem for the regime is that the political and economic elite of Ukraine can only continue receiving Western funding so long as it is actively fighting Russia, or pretending to do so. Without this, the entire Ukrainian elite would be deprived of its main sources of income and left alone to deal with a plundered and war-torn country whose economic future is already owed to governments and financial institutions of the wealthy, imperialist world.

In the face of this grim outlook, legislator Oleksandr Dubynskyy believes that a scenario becomes quite realistic in which Ukraine, disappointed with Europe, turns to a resumption of economic relations with Russia.

Russian analysts and politicians have long expressed that they are tired of this tactic as used by the ruling elites of post-Soviet republics, so much so that they did not mind if the exorbitant appetites of former Soviet leaders were satisfied by Western governments and their taxpaying base in the years following 1990/91.

Desire to draw Poland into the conflict
As the situation on the front lines in late September continues to deteriorate for Ukraine, new incidents and provocations against Russia have multiplied, with the aim of drawing more countries into the conflict. In particular, an alleged entry of two dozen Russian drones flying into Polish airspace late on September 9 (local time) has been actively used for this purpose. The drones were not armed and did not cause any casualties or destruction. The one dwelling that was damaged was hit by a Polish missile aimed at some of the drones.

One of the images of an offending Russian drone shows a Russian Gerbera imitation drone normally used for air defense distraction resting neatly on the roof of a chicken coop. Had it fallen, the drone would have destroyed the roof at the very least. The photo also shows the nose of the drone wrapped in duct tape. Russian factories produce such disposable drones by the thousands; they are never reused nor repaired with duct tape or anything similar because there is no way to repurpose them, and certainly no use of duct tape to make repairs. The pictured drone is obviously one that previously fell somewhere in Ukraine and was then repaired and reused for the purpose of simulating a “Russian incursion.” In other words, the drone looks like a poorly prepared, false-flag provocation.

Despite the flimsy evidence of Russian drones over Poland, the entirety of Ukrainian media and political leaders have been clamoring ever since, calling upon the Polish government to mount a military response and join the military conflict with Russia. For his part, Zelensky has sought to tap into the vanity of Poles by saying that the Russian government and military are seeking to humiliate Poland.

Ukrainian-Israeli expert Yigal Levin, who works for the Ukrainian defense ministry’s intelligence service, is further inflaming the situation by claiming that the drones flown into Poland were aimed at American soldiers stationed in Rzeszów, Poland.

Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andriy Sibiga is demanding that foreign militaries engage in shooting down Russian drones over Ukrainian territory. The aim is to frighten Poles with messaging that “a weak response now will provoke Russia even more, and then Russian missiles and drones will begin flying further into the depths of Europe.”

Escalate the West’s proxy war against Russia?
In an interview with Sky News on September 16, Zelensky said that the countries of Europe and the United States should stop “thinking about themselves” and their future relations with the Russian Federation and think more about Ukraine. In essence, he is demanding that the West sacrifice its interests and those of its citizens for the sake of preserving Zelensky’s shaky hold on power.

Trump’s special envoy to Ukraine, Keith Kellogg, who is considered one of Kiev’s closest friends in the West, is encouraging Zelensky to escalate the West’s proxy war against Russia. He attended the annual meeting in Kiev on September 13 of the Yalta European Strategy (YES) foundation. “We had a discussion about the ‘primacy’ of the Russian military, and I said, ‘we would kick their ass together,’” Kellogg told reporters there. (This is hardly the language of a US presidency seeking “peace” with Russia, as many Western analysts falsely describe the Trump-led war regime in Washington.)

The Ukrainian Telegram channel Legitimny believes that Kiev itself launched drones into Poland in order to increase anti-Russian sentiment there and in the wider world. It says the drone story serves as a means to demand ever more money for waging war against Russia (with the acknowledged US$3.2 billion “hole” in military support payments for 2025 no doubt in mind).

Former Polish President Andrzej Duda recently acknowledged that Ukraine has been trying to drag Poland into a war with Russia since 2022. “It’s in their interest to drag everyone into war, and it would be especially good for them if they managed to drag NATO countries into the war… This is not news. It has been happening since the first day [of the Russian military operation],” the former president said in an interview.

Furthermore, as Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk wrote on September 14, a “troubling” wave of pro-Russian sentiment and hostility toward Ukraine is currently growing in Poland. Tusk blames Moscow for the growth of these sentiments (as though the Russian government has some mystical hold on the hearts and minds of the Polish people).

Oleg Yasinski, a Ukrainian journalist writing from abroad, also believes that the “Russian drone raid” story serves one side in the conflict very well, that being the same side which became terribly upset about the two-day summit meeting of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization in Tianjin, China on August 31/September 1. There, the Russian government’s role was front and center, and the government of India was a participant. According to Yasinski, the West’s only salvation from military and political defeat in Ukraine is an escalation of direct participation by all of Europe’s governments and militaries.

The Polish Gazeta Wyborcza writes that many Poles have begun looking for residences abroad following the claimed drone incident on September 9. The newspaper says the number of applications from Poland to buy real estate in Spain has tripled.

Strana wrote on September 15 that Poles themselves and their economy do not need a war, as Poland is now one of the fastest-growing economies in the European Union.

“In addition,” Strana writes, “everyone in recent years has been able to see, repeatedly, that Polish attitudes to Ukraine and Ukrainians are, to put it mildly, ambiguous. They are not at all very eager to join the fighting in Ukraine.” Despite this, Strana notes, the topic of Poland’s entry into the war is constantly being discussed by certain media and Western political leaders.

The Russian Federation does not need a conflict with Poland. It does not need a “second front” because a significant part of the Russian army is already deployed in Ukraine.

Strana also recalls that there is a widespread theory in Ukraine that the Western “party of war” is seeking to involve certain European countries directly in the war with Russia on the side of Ukraine, but they would choose to do so outside the framework of NATO so that it would not look like a direct NATO war against Russia. Russian officials are not fooled. They have stated that direct military intervention by NATO countries in Ukraine, even at the level of a no-fly zone over the country, would cause war with the NATO bloc.

For Zelensky and his regime, a full-out war between Russia and NATO would be a welcome opportunity to preserve themselves in power and prolong their funding courtesy of obedient Western taxpayers.

https://orinocotribune.com/the-new-dono ... taxpayers/

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It Takes Different System.

In fact, it takes different economy. Calling on the phone or arranging conference calls is not going to cut it.

The US is working to ramp up missile production in preparation for a potential conflict with China, the Wall Street Journal reported Monday, citing officials familiar with the matter. The Pentagon is reportedly pressing defense contractors to double or quadruple output amid mounting concerns over insufficient weapons stockpiles. The US Department of Defense launched the drive in June, when it invited top missile makers to a Pentagon roundtable, sources told the paper. Led by Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Dan Caine, the meeting drew major arms contractors, startups like Anduril Industries and crucial component suppliers.

To understand the scale it is enough to mention that Russia is using up to 500 air defense missiles DAILY--primarily short to mid-range AD complexes such as Pantsir, Tor and Buk of various iterations. Here is a demonstration:

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This is a rather "calm" day and only 147 UAVs have been shot down, then there are always all kinds of shit like HIMARS et al--they also get shot down (most if not all of them) and just for the 29 September 2025 Russian Army's expenditure of missiles (including missiles of Igla type launched often from Ka-52 and Mi-28 helos). There is, obviously, EW too. The average daily shooting down of UAVs alone throughout SMO is about 180 (178, actually) per day. So, we can now move into a very rough estimate for UAVs (alone, I stress it for UAVs alone). We reduce the number of those UAVs shot down by AD missiles (for convenience) to 100 daily.
So, the basic math, then, is such: 100 daily shot down by AD missiles (no EW, no anti-drones, no AAA), SMO lasts 1,313 days so far. So, we multiply 100 by 1,313 and get 131,300 air defense missiles of all kinds. If you think that this:


Deputy Defense Secretary Steve Feinberg is playing an “unusually” hands-on role in the effort, reportedly known as the Munitions Acceleration Council. The WSJ noted that the top official personally calls some executives on a weekly basis to track their progress. “President Trump and Secretary Hegseth are exploring extraordinary avenues to expand our military might and accelerate the production of munitions,” Pentagon spokesman Sean Parnell told the newspaper. “This effort has been a collaboration between defense industry leaders and senior Pentagon officials.” The new acceleration council is focused on 12 weapons that the Pentagon wants on hand for a potential conflict with China, the WSJ relayed. Some officials and experts have reportedly expressed concerns that the Pentagon’s goals may be unrealistic, citing the fact that assembling certain missile systems can take up to two years. At the same time, certifying new suppliers requires hundreds of millions of dollars to ensure the products meet military standards. Funding remains another major concern, according to analysts cited by the news outlet. While the “Big, Beautiful Bill” recently approved by Washington provided an extra $25 billion in munitions spending over five years, meeting the Pentagon’s new targets could require tens of billions more.

Is going to help--I have a bridge to sell you. For war with China the US will need not 12 but likely 120 types of weapons most of which do not exist in nature--the emphasis on AD. Especially considering such a teeny-weeny fact that with Russia having China's back--a fact which is well-known--one MUST ask the question of what happens when Russia either transfers or deploys and mans her weapon systems to aid China? We know the answer. Or rather, we know that there is no answer quantitatively and qualitatively if, God forbid, crazies in D.C. decide to test REAL opponents. But then again, all this hassle in D.C. is yet another indication of a collapsing empire and there are no "extraordinary avenues". To fight REAL war the US must have a political and economic system based on fundamentally different principles which is impossible to conceive today in the country which largely faked its military history of the XX and XXI centuries.

http://smoothiex12.blogspot.com/2025/09 ... ystem.html

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The Battle of Chasov Yar. Operation in the Kanal neighborhood.
September 29, 10:57

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The Battle of Chasov Yar. Operation in the Kanal neighborhood.

A little late, but better late than never. Below is the story of a unique drone operation in the Kanal neighborhood of Chasov Yar in the summer of 2024.

In the summer of 2024, immediately after the assault on the Kanal neighborhood by the 98th Guards Airborne Division, an aerial reconnaissance group from one of the units hatched a daring idea to enter the neighborhood and operate directly under the enemy's nose, which didn't align with traditional UAV operating principles.

The difficulty lay in the long walk to the intended operating point (according to the participants' estimates, the route was approximately 12 kilometers), and the route itself had to be completed in full gear and equipment, which added significant weight. A traditional supply route was impossible in this area—the sky was swarming with enemy UAVs. At that point, the area was a complete "airfield," and any vehicle movement was quickly stopped by the enemy, making attempts to enter the "Channel" futile. The exception was the famous "Hispaniola" attack aircraft raid, which was taking place at the same time, but I personally didn't really see the practical point of this motorcycle expedition.

The route was extremely interesting—the road was littered with "petals," "bells," and other explosive devices, and the enemy didn't stop the drones' movement. At one point, according to a participant in the operation with the call sign "Fortress," four FPVs and two reconnaissance copters were hovering above the group, watching for the slightest movement. This was how the reconnaissance and fire contour of the Ukrainian Armed Forces' UAV units operated in tandem. Meanwhile, the Ukrainian Armed Forces actively used artillery along the approach roads, covering roughly defined squares, but the group, hiding in cover, survived the shelling and moved on.

As the aerial reconnaissance group entered the Kanal microdistrict, Pitubl's group was also arriving on motorcycles. At that moment, the Ukrainian Armed Forces command, taken aback by such impudence, decided to unleash all available firepower on the Russian Armed Forces units entering (and driving into) Kanal. A barrage of cannon artillery and cluster munitions began, and the number of FPVs was simply innumerable.

Importantly, all equipment (including power generators) was hauled in manually in several stages, meaning the aerial reconnaissance unit had to make several trips along the route to retrieve the necessary supplies.

Having established themselves at the point, the soldiers realized it was an excellent location for their core operations—a single Mavic battery could easily carry out three airdrop flights, and artillery spotting was a no-brainer—they could just hang there and spot them. In preparation for the upcoming operation to seize a bridgehead across the Seversky Donetsk-Donbas Canal, it was simply ideal.In just one and a half weeks of the group's presence in the channel, the following were identified:

— Several enemy UAV control points (we razed one of them to the ground)
— MLRS "Himars" in the Konstantinovsky direction
— UAV control point of the "wing" type

Innumerable locations of enemy personnel in Chasov Yar and the surrounding area.

On average, 6-7 "fat" targets were sent out for engagement per day. The group engaged some of the targets independently, including in collaboration with yours truly, who was at the time in the Kalinovka-Druzhba forest area. Being in close proximity to the enemy, there was no need to even bother searching for targets—they were literally "in the palm of your hand." The guys also didn't forget to support adjacent assault units on the flanks—they dropped food and water. Later, one of our comrades, while being treated in the hospital, received words of gratitude from a 98th Guards Airborne Division assault trooper for delivering water and food.

Perhaps the enemy had no idea that such daring drone pilots existed, dropping onto the front lines alongside the assault troopers and giving the enemy a master class. Despite the initial idea of ​​"trying it out," the unit managed to exceed its limits and deliver an amazing result.

@project_nd - zinc

Krutaya History. Those who have distinguished themselves should be unconditionally nominated for state awards.

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/10098566.html

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blindpig
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Re: Footnotes from the Ukrainian "Crisis"; New High-Points in Cynicism Part V

Post by blindpig » Wed Oct 01, 2025 11:36 am

Tool of a common war
Posted by @nsanzo ⋅ 01/10/2025

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“Finland fully supports Denmark in its efforts to protect its airspace and counter hybrid activities like those we have seen in recent days and weeks. To solidify this support, Finland has decided today to deploy an anti-drone contingent to Denmark. The Finnish Border Guard will also provide support with its own capabilities,” wrote Finnish President Alexander Stubb yesterday, one of many European leaders who showed their support for Denmark and offered their services to defeat the threat of drone sightings over key infrastructure such as the capital's international airport. Despite the fact that no danger has ever arisen and there is no tangible evidence of Russian culpability, perhaps not even sought, these events are now being presented as part of Russia's hybrid war against European countries. Considering that Denmark is one of the most belligerent countries in its statements—its prime minister even stated that peace could be more dangerous than war—that it has donated a larger percentage of its GDP to Ukraine as military aid, and that it will be home to one of the military production factories that kyiv will outsource to protect against Russian bombing, Denmark is a scapegoat for a campaign of tension. The current situation, in which Russia is always to blame, does not require even a minimal investigation; rather, it is more important to use the incidents to justify a more common defense policy, a closing of bellicose ranks, and the inclusion of Ukraine in this process. Without any danger having occurred, countries such as France, Germany, Sweden, the Netherlands, and the aforementioned Finland have already joined the initiative to deploy personnel and systems to counter drones in Denmark.

"No Western army is currently capable of fighting in a modern war scenario like Ukraine," military analyst Patricia Marins commented yesterday. In their drive toward rearmament, increased military spending, and the militarization of the continent, European countries have focused on building heavy equipment that has become practically obsolete, as demonstrated by the Leopard tanks trapped in minefields and Russian drones in Zaporozhye. However, there is also beginning to be talk of the need to build a "drone wall" to combat alleged Russian incursions. These initiatives require spending, research, and development in an area where European countries have seriously lagged behind. Incidents like the one in Denmark are useful precisely to highlight this drive toward rearmament.

In this struggle, in which, according to Foreign Minister Merz, Europe "is no longer at peace" and Donald Tusk calls for accepting that "this war is ours" to justify more spending and greater participation in the common fight against Russia through Ukraine, European countries are fortunate to have the support of Volodymyr Zelensky's government, generously willing to offer its valuable assistance. "Our group of specialists has begun a mission in Denmark to share Ukraine's experience in combating drones. Our men arrived to participate in joint exercises with our partners, which could lay the foundation for a new system to counter Russian and other drones," wrote the Ukrainian president, noticeably exaggerating his role, to announce the assistance that kyiv claims to be able to offer European countries thanks to its experience fighting against Russia. Undoubtedly, Ukraine has experience that other European countries lack, although its ability to shoot down Russian drones would be unblemished only if the kyiv air force's claims about the shootdown rate were credible. Reality shows that Russian drones, significantly improved from the initial swarms used in the fall of 2022 after their acquisition from Iran, are now capable of causing greater damage in Ukraine than three years ago. Ukraine's success in the air war is much more pronounced in the offensive, where it has countless targets in a country as vast and difficult to cover by air defense as the Russian Federation. This war, like Israel's confrontation with Iran, demonstrates the greater ease of armies in the offensive phases and the difficulty of defense.

Even so, Volodymyr Zelensky boasts of his experience, which makes it essential for Ukraine to be the center of the new project to protect European skies. "Ukraine's experience is the most relevant in Europe today, and it is precisely our knowledge, our specialists, and our technologies that can become a key element of the future European Drone Wall: a large-scale project that will guarantee security in the skies," he insisted yesterday.

Ready to offer its invaluable and valuable aid to European countries, Ukraine remains relentless in its efforts to ensure that the worsening of the war, foreshadowed by the United States' new stance against Russia, implies not only more powerful weapons and more funding, but also greater direct participation by its allies in the conflict, specifically in the defense of its skies. kyiv is unable to defend its airspace with its own resources—and those donated by NATO and even Israel—but it is essential to protect that of the European Union. The country that claims to defend European civilization, the one for which Donald Tusk asserts we must fight in this existential war, cannot sustain itself and requires ever more assistance. A time for hawks, this moment of warlike excitement on the part of European countries, which coincides with a phase of US agitation in favor of sending weapons such as Tomahawk missiles, which, as Sergey Lavrov commented yesterday, the United States "doesn't send just anyone," is being used to try to achieve what has not been achieved until now.

Last April, the Sky Shield initiative, sponsored by some of the continent's most hawkish figures and promoted by progressive media outlets such as The Guardian , went virtually unnoticed. The proposal, which implied direct participation in the Russo-Ukrainian war by shooting down Russian drones, missiles, and aircraft, was also a demonstration of expectations, as it only aspired to cover Ukrainian territories west of the Dnieper River. Not even the most hawkish hawks believed at the time that Trump now claims—although without specifying how to achieve it—that Ukraine would regain its "original formation," that is, its territorial integrity.

Taking advantage of the international climate favorable to presenting proposals that guarantee a longer and tougher war, The Telegraph yesterday published an initiative suspiciously similar to Sky Shield . “How Europe can hit Putin without starting World War III,” wrote Roland Oliphant, the outlet's chief political analyst and veteran of the information war in Donbas. Recalling the drone incidents over Danish skies and the incursion of 19 Russian decoy drones into Poland heading toward Ukraine, the journalist insisted that “the alliance didn't exactly pass with flying colors. The number of Russian drones shot down over Poland was a fraction of the hit rate achieved by the Ukrainian air force.” Oliphant does not specify whether the hit rate he mentions is real or the fiction published daily by Ukraine as part of its war propaganda (executed by all actors directly or indirectly involved in the conflict). The analyst delves into the minds of Russian leaders to deduce that Russia is testing Western defenses, believing the United States is distracted, focused on containing China, and that a portion of Trumpism is guilty of an isolationist tendency allergic to maintaining commitments abroad.

“Russia's strategic objective in Europe is no secret. It wants to build what it calls a ‘new European security architecture,’ essentially rewriting the post-Cold War settlement to restore Moscow's dominance over at least part of the continent,” he argues, although Russian rhetoric has always sought to create a common security structure, one built against no one. In Oliphant's theory, Russia's intention “involves destroying Ukraine as a sovereign state. But it also means dismantling NATO, and there may never be a better opportunity than the current Trump presidency.”

When responding to this imaginary war between Russia and the West, Oliphant emphasizes two points: the need to count on the United States and that "our influence over the future of the continent is directly proportional to our willingness to use force—and take risks—to defend it." "One option proposed by a group of high-ranking Western politicians and military personnel is to install an anti-aircraft shield over western Ukraine to shoot down Russian missiles and drones, with the possibility of eventually expanding it—turning it into an effective no-fly zone—over Kyiv itself," he suggests. To downplay the fact that such an action would involve direct participation in a war against Russia, Oliphant adds that "since Russia's air campaign is conducted using drones and long-range missiles launched from within Russian airspace, such an operation would not pose any life-threatening risks to Russian military personnel" and, therefore, would not pose a danger of a direct clash between NATO and Russia.

“The European leaders meeting this week in Copenhagen will undoubtedly discuss this issue, along with other ideas. But the important thing is that, whatever position they adopt, they send a clear signal to Moscow,” the analyst concludes. The message is that it must endure without complaint and without responding to a war in which Ukraine is increasingly a tool in a war directed from the West.

https://slavyangrad.es/2025/10/01/33131/

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******

From Cassad's telegram account:

Colonelcassad
Another NATO Brigade on Our Borders

. NATO has begun forming a new multinational NATO spearhead brigade of up to 5,000 personnel, which will be deployed in Lapland, Finland.

According to preliminary data, the brigade will consist of five battalions , including support units, and specialize in combat in Arctic climates.

It will be created on the basis of the 19th Norrbotten Mechanized Regiment . It will also include other Scandinavians from Norway and Denmark.

Finland will be represented by the Jaeger Brigade , which has a battalion in Sodankylä and an air defense battalion in Rovaniemi, as well as the Kainu Brigade

in Kajaani. Together, they will form the Lapland Division . Similar units already exist in the Baltic, Black Sea, and Poland.

Command will be exercised from Mikkeli, where NATO's operational headquarters in Finland is located, and the British, who have also announced their participation, will coordinate this division.

The new brigade will be armed with 155mm Archer self-propelled howitzers on a wheeled chassis, and Typhoon fighters and RAF F-35s will also operate in their defense .

Essentially, we're getting another overstuffed NATO brigade/division, which will now pose a threat in the northern latitudes.

Considering all the other formations along our borders, NATO is heavily fortifying its borders, and this has long since gone beyond the limits of deterrence.

@rusich_army

***

Colonelcassad
0:25
"If you want peace, prepare for war." The United States has begun to legitimize its militarization. And the catchphrase "si vis pacem, para bellum" has come in handy.

As always, to justify rising tensions, the United States needed a compelling media narrative, and they found it. And now they'll be broadcasting it from every corner of the world.

This was precisely what was discussed today at the presentation of the book "Fabricating Atrocities and Their Consequences: How Fake News Shapes World Order."

It was written by American military expert A.B. Abrams, who traced the outbreak of major armed conflicts since the mid-1950s.

Each time, their outbreak was preceded by media campaigns smearing countries and leaders whose political positions displeased the United States. Korea, Cuba, Serbia, Yugoslavia—there are countless examples, including the most outright fakes (like Colin Powell's test tube he shook at the UN).

In the West, they're convinced that if a method produces results, it can be applied. Especially when entire continents are under information surveillance.

https://t.me/s/boris_rozhin

Google Translator

******

Brief Frontline Report – September 30th, 2025

Report by Marat Khairullin and Mikhail Popov.
Zinderneuf
Sep 30, 2025

Message from the Russian Ministry of Defense: "Units of the 'South' Group of forces decisively liberated the settlement of Seversk Malyy (small/little Seversk) in the Donetsk People's Republic." (Marked by a Russian flag on the map.)

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The settlement of Seversk Malyy (48°55'30"N 38°4'9"E, is also known as Rudnik, and the western part of the settlement adjacent to the Bakhmutka River is referred to as Sobachevka or Sobachiy Khutor) is part of the city of Seversk, although it is located almost 5 kilometers to the north.

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The Russian Armed Forces are expanding the Serebryanka bridgehead on the right bank of the Seversky Donets River. On the left bank of the Bakhmutka River lies the settlement of Dronovka, a large settlement with a railway station. By capturing this stronghold, our group will complete a deep encirclement of the city of Seversk from the north and gain the opportunity to advance to the settlement of Yampol from the south, driving a wedge between the Ukrainian defense nodes of Drobyshevo-Stavki-Liman and Seversk.

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An operation is underway to destroy the northeastern defensive line of the Slavyansk-Kramatorsk node with simultaneous southern encirclement of the Oskol node and the Borovaya salient.

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Borovaya Salient and the Oskol node, larger view.

The theater of operations is complex, consisting of many natural obstacles, rivers, forests, and a highly developed transport network. Therefore, following the "thousand cuts" tactic, the Russian Armed Forces will dismantle these nodes and Ukrainian defense areas division by division, skillfully cutting through and encircling enemy groups trapped in the terrain and catching them on the move along the roads.

https://maratkhairullin.substack.com/p/ ... tember-a38

******

WHEN TOMAHAWK MEETS BEAR, THE HAZEL TREE (ORESHNIK) WINS

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By John Helmer, Moscow @bears_with

A week ago on September 23, President Donald Trump called President Vladimir Putin’s military power a “paper tiger”, and declared ”this is the time for Ukraine to act”.

By that he said he meant “to take back their Country in its original form and, who knows, maybe even go further than that!”

Five days later, the successor president, Vice President J D Vance, explained that deployment on the Ukrainian battlefield by NATO-supplied Tomahawk cruise missiles, with a 2,500-km range, is the next step he and Trump are considering.

“Russia is really stalled,” Vance claimed, “The Russian economy is in shambles. The Russians are not gaining much on the battlefield… The Russians have refused to sit down in any bilateral meetings with the Ukrainians. They have refused to sit down in any trilateral meetings with the President…The Russians have got to wake up and accept reality here… About Tomahawks, it’s something the President is going to make the final determination on. What the President is going to do is what’s in the best interest of the United States of America.”

The scheme, Vance intimated, is to allow NATO member states with Tomahawk batteries – at the moment this means the UK and Germany – to deliver them to Kiev, or for other European states to buy the missiles from the US and send them on. This means that the crews operating the Tomahawk systems in the Ukraine would be British, German, or other Europeans. “What we’re doing,” Vance said, “is asking the Europeans to buy that weaponry that shows some European skin in the game. I think that gets them really invested in both what’s happening in their own backyard, but also in the peace process that the president has been pushing for, for the last eight months,” Vance said.

The skins at risk of Russian counterattack, Vance meant but omitted to acknowledge, would be European, not American.

The Kremlin spokesman, Dmitry Peskov, responded with the obvious followed by a placebo.

“We have heard these statements. We are thoroughly analyzing them. Our military specialists are closely monitoring it.” “Even if it happens that the United States sends its Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine, currently there is no cure-all that could be a game changer on the front lines for the Kiev regime. No magical weapons exist, and Tomahawk or other missiles simply won’t be a game changer.”

Then Peskov muffled a warning: “The question… is this: who can launch these missiles…? Can only Ukrainians launch them, or do American soldiers have to do that?” The answer is already obvious – Vance made it plain. The operators of the Tomahawks would be Europeans.

Peskov’s questions also avoided Vance’s and Trump’s strategic point. They are now aiming to intensify the domestic damage they can inflict deep inside Russian territory – Moscow and St. Petersburg if they can — in the belief this will trigger loss of Russian morale and voter opposition to Putin. “This war is terrible for their economy,” Vance repeated several times, as has Trump. The Russians, Vance declared, “have to ask themselves how many more people are they willing to lose…for very little military advantage.”

What is happening from the Russian point of view which isn’t public?

The US “understanding” from the Anchorage summit meeting on August 16 is no longer the Russian interpretation as Putin himself first explained it. “Hopefully, the understanding [singular] we have reached will bring us closer to this goal and open up the road to peace in Ukraine,” Putin said at his brief press conference after meeting with Trump. “We see that the US President has a clear idea of what he wants to achieve, that he sincerely cares about his country’s prosperity while showing awareness of Russia’s national interests. I hope that today’s agreements [plural] will become a reference point, not only for resolving the Ukrainian problem but also for resuming the pragmatic business relations between Russia and the United States.”

Escalation to Tomahawk attacks on the Russia hinterland is also not the “understanding” with the US which the Russian Foreign Ministry announced after Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov met at the United Nations with Secretary of State Marco Rubio: “The heads of the foreign offices exchanged opinions on the Ukraine crisis settlement as a follow up to the understandings [plural] reached at the Russia-US summit in Anchorage. The parties have reaffirmed mutual interest in the search for peaceful solutions. Sergey Lavrov emphasised our country’s readiness to adhere to the line developed by the Russian and US leaders in Alaska, including to coordinate efforts with the US side to remove the root causes of the Ukraine conflict. The minister stressed the unacceptability of the schemes intended to protract the conflict promoted by Kiev and some European countries. The parties compared their positions on the entire bilateral agenda including the prospects of restoring their socio-political contacts. They have reaffirmed the importance of using the impetus given by Russian and US presidents to the process of normalising bilateral relations.”

Speaking to Russian reporters, Lavrov then added: “We operate on the premise that everything we have heard from our US colleagues at the top and other levels tells us that they want to help us end this conflict by addressing and eliminating its root causes. There are no other countries in the Western camp that abide by such a position. I have no doubt that the US President is genuinely interested in this outcome. Some people are trying to have influence on him, but that’s another matter… The 2022 borders are off the table today. What we are now discussing are the borders as enshrined in the Constitution of the Russian Federation.”

The “reality on the ground”, as Vance and Trump say they understand it on the battlefield, is plainly now not the reality on the ground as the Russian side sees it. The US is announcing that Russia the paper tiger has lost escalation dominance on the battlefield, and is vulnerable to even greater domestic insecurity than it faced three years ago, when the Special Military Operation began. If that was the “root cause” of the war, as Putin and Lavrov say they have explained to their US counterparts, Trump and Vance are now dismissing “root cause” as the basis for terms to end the war.

When Vance announced that the Tomahawk deployment will be decided “in the interests of the United States of America”, he meant to say that the Russian military and Putin have lost their power of deterrence.

A Moscow source in a position to know says the General Staff will convince the President on the measures required to prove the Americans wrong. “I believe the Russians will secure victory using the Oreshniki rather than a massive ground offensive. But there is also a build-up many of us can tell. That is why Americans and Europeans are getting very nervous, threatening Russians with a direct confrontation unless they back off.”

Listen to the escalation of the US threat to Russia:
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Source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wTSgoeIkxRc

And now Nima Alkhorshid leads the discussion: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sBosKQABl4U
ImageSource: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sBosKQABl4U

The informed Moscow source observes: “we are at the clearest point of the war. Russia has to end it decisively or lose it.”

The source explains that in the Russian assessment of Trump now, “he is no peacemaker. He would have liked a Nobel for it but it is clear after Anchorage that he knows he will not be able to broker peace. The Americans think the Ukrainians are happy to die; the Europeans are happy to have them die; there is apparently little shortage of money. Europe can come up with what is needed from the seized Russian assets. So Trump is pointing out what we all know – Putin has not been able to win. He is pointing out what the war briefers have told him to be the cold hard truth – the Ukrainians have taken a very severe beating but they are standing and fighting; the Russians have not been able win and might not be able to. Hence the opportunity, he and Vance have been persuaded, that the US can turn the tide; get richly paid; and run no risk of losing American lives.”

“There is nothing new in this situation – except that the deals [Kirill] Dmitriev was looking for from [Steven] Witkoff have not happened. The Kremlin has not been able to bribe or buy any American favours. So it’s back to the battlefield – the Russians have to win it, seal it, and that will happen by next summer or by the summer of 2027. To the war faction in Moscow, this understanding is welcome.”

https://johnhelmer.net/when-tomahawk-me ... more-92440

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The O9A and the intelligence community

Galactic Azov, Pyongyang trips, Gladio in Britain, Mossad, Angleton and Dulles, the Great War on Terror.
Events in Ukraine
Sep 29, 2025

What’s the difference between an informant and a terrorist?

Today we’ll try to answer this age-old question by looking looking at the two most important figures in the Order of the Nine Angles (O9A), the rightwing satanist accelerationist group that has inspired a range of neo-nazi school shooters, organized child abusers, and other freaks.

I originally became interested in them due to their expansive presence in Ukraine and Russia, as I wrote in this series. I recently wrote about the O9A-inspired short story Kiss of Marena, whose English translation was published by one of today’s main characters, Joshua Sutter. Originally published in 2013, this story glorified serial murder as a means of reaching mystical transcendence. Kirill Kanakhin, one of those involved in writing it, is now a prominent fighter in Ukraine’s ‘Russian Volunteer Corps’.

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Kanakhin

Today’s topic, the link between western spooks and the original O9A preachers, is also relevant to the O9A story in eastern Europe. This western death cult has proven a fitting ideology for a region riven by western intrigues.

Even before O9A entered the scene, post-soviet neo-nazis were already quite enthusiastically setting about ‘culling society’ of ‘bio-mass’, by which they meant serial killing of migrants and the homeless, (nowadays, mixed in with the odd school shooting). Today, neo-nazis (both Russian and Ukrainian) fighting on Ukraine’s side also use this ‘cleansing the biomass’ rhetoric when glorifying their military feats.

Given this context, no wonder O9A ideas have proven so popular. According to O9A ideology, self-initiation into this mystical order is only possible through the murder of what they call ‘opfers’:

train several members, and yourself, in the undertaking of the tests relevant to choosing an opfer. Select some suitable candidates for the post of opfer, using sinister guidelines for so selecting an opfer, and undertake the relevant tests on each chosen candidate. The opfer or opfers having been so chosen by failing such tests, perform The Death Ritual using the chosen opfer(s) in the central role. Thereafter, and having completed all the necessary preparations, select a further opfer using Aeonics or sinister strategy as a guide, and undertake The Ceremony of Recalling… After the ritual sacrifice, the Guardian takes the opfer shell and buries it in a secluded spot prepared beforehand. It is on this place of burial that the Temple gathers on the night of the new moon to eat the sacrificial cakes

The generalized misanthropy advocated by the O9A, as in the following 2009 text by David Myatt, one of today’s central characters, is now commonplace in much of the post-soviet space:

Let us be honest—Homo Hubris is an infestation on planet Earth; a subhuman species suitable for culling individually and on a large scale. For Homo Hubris is . . . the product of those de-evolutionary forces and that de-evolutionary ethos which we—who are esoterically adept and who adhere to [the] Sinister way—are in revolt against and wish to decimate and destroy and replace with our sinister evolutionary ethos and new tribal elites. . . . By championing terror, war, disruption, disorder, “crime,” and chaos; by culling them whenever the individual opportunity to do so, undetected, arises. For they are the dross that holds us back from striving-to-be, to live among the stars of our and of other Galaxies. - The Infestation of Homo Hubris

Is it really so surprising that the death cult propagated so heavily in eastern europe actually comes from the anglo-saxon world? And that its leaders are either certified FBI agents, or claim to be?

Today’s first topic is the British founder of the O9A, David Myatt, and his links with British intelligence. Like most bad things, it all started in England.

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And naturally, it metastasized in the USA. Today’s second character is Joshua Sutter, the proven (and proud) FBI agent who did the most to transform O9A philosophy into a global propaganda machine for the creation of school shooters, child abusers and serial killers.

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It should be noted that both Sutter and Myatt have not simply significantly influenced neo-nazis in the post-soviet world. They also seem to actively cooperate with them.

In fact, Sutter was actually invited to the 2018 ‘Pact of Steel’ conference in Kyiv by Ukraine’s Azov movement. Azov is now Ukraine’s most well-known military unit (actually a number of units), which is feted by the government and liberal press as the undisputed masters of war, the only figures capable of saving the country and reforming the army. Back in 2018, Sutter brought along with him members of Atomwaffen, a US-based neo-nazi rightwing accelerationist organization. Some also claim that Myatt was also present at the conference.

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Myatt is the balding one with the beard.

I’ve also uncovered some tantalizing signs of ideological cross-pollination. Azov’s publishing house lists a 2016 ‘glossy magazine of the Azov movement’, which is apparently partly dedicated to the ‘problems of colonizing Mars’, along with ‘the history of Hitler’. Myatt’s satanist neo-nazism is also obsessed with the need for an Aryan colonization of space, as we will see today.

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The fact that Sutter and Myatt have such friends in Ukraine should be no surprising, considering their much longer friendship with the western intelligence community. Today’s article will end with some speculations on why exactly both Sutter and Myatt are quite happy to declare themselves as NATO deep state operatives - it probably has something to do with their fetishization of colonialism, imperialism, and fascism. Myatt’s origin in colonial Africa is also not irrelevant.

Before all that, I should note that at this point of my investigations, the object of research is no longer totally theoretical. In fact, a number of them actually began interacting with me. They did so in response to my tweet thread summarizing on the link between western intelligence agencies, school shootings in Russia and the USA, Ukraine’s Russian Volunteer Corps (RDK), and the O9A.

Not only did a number of individuals in the RDK orbit reply or quote my thread, but so did Joshua Sutter himself. Naturally, the RDK representatives mocked the thread as products of a diseased imagination. Sutter, for his part, simply followed and retweeted.

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This is Sutter’s twitter account

As we’ll see today, Sutter may have been less critical for a simple reason — because he is quite proud of being a spook. In fact, judging from his online footprint, he is positively obsessed with the CIA and Mossad. Today’s article will also examine Myatt and Sutter’s attempt to infiltrate or masquerade as Islamists and Communists. Let’s begin. Perhaps some of those mentioned are reading.

Perfidious Albion
A friend of mine recently sent an interesting text on the topic of the O9A. Apparently, the text in question has even been given the seal of approval by occultists in the O9A orbit.

The article is titled ‘Toward the Galactic Imperium The Order of Nine Angles, Cosmic Accelerationism, and the Occult Politics of Neo-Fascism’. The author’s background is worth mentioning. Andrew G Palella ‘served as an infantry officer in the U.S. Army and worked within the intelligence community’, according to his university’s description.

Much of the article is dedicated to unravelling the esoteric philosophy of the O9A, which I’ll focus less on. What I did like was the description of David Myatt’s life.

The British Myatt claims to have been initiated into the O9A in the early 1970s by a mysterious ‘Mistress’ who then migrated to Australia. According to him, the O9A has existed as a secretive cult for literally thousands of years, surviving the Christianization of Britain. This, like many things, is another example of Myatt’s love for self-mythologization. Myatt is the one who created the tenets of the O9A.

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David Myatt outside his Worcestershire home, ~2000. From the O9A journal Fenrir
Myatt is fond of recalling the fact that he was born in ‘colonial Africa’. Palella cites claims that Myatt’s birthplace was Tanzania, 1950. Anyway, this colonial background is surely relevant to Myatt’s worldview. According to him, the true potential of the Aryan race/spirit is to colonize outer space and establish a ‘galactic imperium’.

(Paywall with free option.)

https://eventsinukraine.substack.com/p/ ... -community

*****

<snip>

One of the chief reasons for the ongoing hysteria is because, after a few weeks’ lull, Ukrainian lines have again begun to collapse on several fronts.

Over the past week, Russian forces have made deceptively sizeable gains in three key areas: Dnipro oblast, Kupyansk, and the Seversk-Lyman line. Let’s take a look at all three.

The reason the Dnipro front has been the most deceptive is because it seems the least operationally significant. There are no big key towns in danger of being encircled, and only a vast stretch of nameless land seems to extend all the way to Pavlograd or even the Dnieper.

This ‘backwoods’ feel for the area has left it neglected in most lay observers’ eyes, but the gains here have been some of the most consistent and impressive of late. For context, we are talking about this wide area comprising the old Ugledar and Velyka Novosilka lines:

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In particular, the center-most region has been the most active. Virtually everything around the orange lines below has been recently taken, with territory expanded westward:

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Here’s DeepState’s map showing the many prongs of advancement:

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As can be seen, most recently, the settlement of Verbove was entered and partly captured. The adjacent settlement of Kalynivske was only itself just captured several days ago.

A map from Suriyak shows the advances of just the past two days:

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It was about a year and a half ago that Russians captured Marinka and Ugledar, seen below circled in red:

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The amount of territory they’ve captured since then almost equals the amount remaining to the Dnieper river, and Russian advances are only speeding up. I’m not saying the advances have been fast so far, but it’s conceivable in two more years—if the conflict lasts that long—Russian forces could be at the gates of Dnipro city itself, having captured most of the Donbass.

As for what’s next on this front, there’s a strip of settlements along the Yanchur river that Russian forces are approaching—shown in orange below:

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But the light blue colored area after those settlements is nothing but open fields, which will be rolled up quickly. After that, Russian forces will be surrounding Gulyaipole as the next strategic town of the region to fall.

As a quick runner up mention, further west on the Zaporozhye line along the river, Russian forces penetrated deeper into both Stepnogorsk and Plavni-Primorsk:

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There’s not much of worth to mention in Pokrovsk, as Russia is currently using the front to merely soak up and grind down ‘elite’ Ukrainian units from other areas while Russians advance in those weakened regions.

In Konstantinovka, Russian forces are slowly approaching the town, capturing all the outlying areas. From a Ukrainian source:

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Further north, there have been major gains on the Seversk front, with Russian forces cleaning up the south and southeastern approaches of the city:

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As can be seen north of there, Serebriansky forest area has collapsed for the AFU, with Russians advancing through even more of Yampil. Suriyak has the entire area north of Seversk also being under partial Russian control—thus the lightly colored designation:

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Top Ukrainian analyst Myroshnykov chimes in:

I really don’t like the state of affairs in the Sieversk and Kupiansk directions.

I don’t want to say it outright, but things there smell fishy.

The defense of the Serebrianske forestry is over.

The defense of the village of Serebrianka is practically over too. Rearguard battles are still ongoing there, but overall everything is already clear.

The situation in Kupiansk is no better.


In the coming days, I will provide detailed updates on the events in each of these directions.

A closer look shows Zarichne has now been almost fully taken—you’ll recall last time only some of the central districts had been entered by Russian troops:

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Above, Shandrygolov has been fully captured, and now the next towns of Novoselivka and Derylove are being chewed through by Russian forces, to slowly envelop Krasny Lyman from the north.

Footage of Shandrygolove’s capture, with added info: (Video at link.)

Shandrigolovo is like a key to the entrance doors to the west towards the Oskol River and to the south towards the Seversky Donets and Krasny Liman.

Shandrigolovo stretches along the Nitrius River and also has supply routes from several sides. Considering these difficulties, our troops blocked the village from the north and south, crushing the remnants of the Armed Forces of Ukraine trapped and pressed against the water bodies. It took only a month from the arrival of the first units of the 144th Motorized Rifle Division of the 20th Army of the Western Military District to liberate the village.

The importance of the settlement is also proven by the fact that the Armed Forces of Ukraine regularly tried to retake Shandrigolovo, conducting more than ten unsuccessful counterattacks in this area and burying over a hundred militants in them.


Lastly, Kupyansk has seen a major advance along the western edge, again from Suriyak:

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Not only is the city slowly being enveloped from the west, but Russian troops continue to penetrate the interior from the northern salient.

https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/eu- ... ation-into

******

(Something from the Department of Scapegoats...)

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Polish Police Arrest Ukrainian Suspect in Nord Stream Pipeline Sabotage

Vladimir Zhuravlev. X/ @GudadzeLevan

September 30, 2025 Hour: 8:34 am

Detention in Pruszkow follows earlier arrest of another Ukrainian in Italy.
On Tuesday, Polish police arrested a Ukrainian citizen suspected of involvement in the 2022 sabotage of the Nord Stream 1 and 2 gas pipelines. The arrest took place in Pruszkow under a European Arrest Warrant issued by a German court.

The suspect may be a diving instructor who German investigators believe set sail from Rostock on a yacht in September 2022 before diving to plant explosive charges on the pipelines.

Tymoteusz Paprocki, the attorney for the detainee identified as Vladimir Zhuravlev, told Polish broadcaster Radio MF24 that the defense sees no basis for his extradition to Germany.

“Given the full-scale war in Ukraine and the fact that the owner of Nord Stream is the Russian company Gazprom, which funds these actions, the defense sees no possibility today of bringing charges against anyone who may have participated in these activities,” he said, adding that it is still uncertain whether his client took part in the operation.

⚠️ A Ukrainian citizen — Volodymyr Z., wanted by Germany for his alleged involvement in the Nord Stream explosions — has been detained in Poland.

Three years ago, explosions damaged the Nord Stream and Nord Stream 2 pipelines in the Baltic Sea.

Nord Stream, built 2010–2012,… pic.twitter.com/WKTjrIbizk

— Vanguard Intel Group 🛡 (@vanguardintel) September 30, 2025


Polish courts will begin proceedings to decide on the extradition, a decision that will fall to a court in Warsaw, said Piotr Skiba, spokesman for the capital’s prosecutor’s office.

This arrest follows that of another Ukrainian, Serhiy Kuznetsov, in August in Rimini, Italy, also in connection with the sabotage. Kuznetsov was detained while on vacation with his family and is considered either the coordinator or the organizer of the operation.

An Italian appeals court has already approved his transfer to Germany, although the decision has been appealed to Italy’s Supreme Court.

The case dates back to September 2022, when two powerful explosions damaged three of the four lines of the Nord Stream 1 and Nord Stream 2 pipelines in the Baltic Sea.

According to leaks from the German prosecutor’s office to media, investigators believe the attack was carried out by Ukrainians with ties to Kiev’s intelligence services and armed forces, though it remains unclear to what extent senior officials were aware of the alleged operation to destroy the infrastructure.

https://www.telesurenglish.net/polish-p ... -sabotage/

I find it hard to believe that the Ukes could pull off that caper. 'Taking one for the team' while the victims look away...
"There is great chaos under heaven; the situation is excellent."

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Re: Footnotes from the Ukrainian "Crisis"; New High-Points in Cynicism Part V

Post by blindpig » Thu Oct 02, 2025 11:59 am

Brigadier General Biletsky
Posted by @nsanzo ⋅ 02/10/2025

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“On Defenders' Day, on the Feast of the Intercession, we expand another of our traditions of respect and gratitude. Since the beginning of the large-scale war, the highest title of Hero of Ukraine has been awarded only to warriors: Ukrainians who distinguished themselves extraordinarily in combat, in the defense of our state, our positions, and our people. 722 of these warriors have already become Heroes of Ukraine, 445 of them posthumously. Today I signed the decrees granting the title of Hero of Ukraine to four more Ukrainians, tragically and posthumously: Andriy Parubiy, Hennadii Afanasiev, Stepan Chubenko, and Volodymyr Vakulenko,” Zelensky announced yesterday, making the assassinated Parubiy, former speaker of the Rada and a lifelong member of far-right movements, some of them paramilitary, a Hero of Ukraine. According to Zelensky, those awarded the medal are also defenders of the homeland for having defended the "idea of ​​Ukraine." In the case of Paruiby, a member of the far-right paramilitary organization Patriot of Ukraine, that idea included an ideology of hatred, not only of foreigners, but also of compatriots whose identity or ideology did not conform to the lines established by nationalism.

That wasn't the president's only announcement. Another piece of news of the day concerned another illustrious Patriot of Ukraine veteran. “Zelensky awarded Andriy Biletsky, commander of the Third Army Corps, the rank of brigadier general. A meteoric and dizzying career path for an ultranationalist: from self-proclaimed White Führer , who once ranted about the white race and a Jewish conspiracy , to a decorated member of the Ukrainian military elite, under a president of Jewish descent,” wrote Marta Havrishko, a Ukrainian historian who is routinely insulted, threatened, and harassed by the far right despite being in the United States.

“Whitewashing is in full swing. There's also an article in Foreign Policy today glorifying the white leader . The real problem isn't even extremist ideology, which can be tweaked, embellished, and whitewashed by media experts. It's organized crime running the state,” denounced Russian opposition journalist Leonid Ragozin yesterday, whose tolerance for the far right is notably lower than that of mainstream European and American media. “Today, the far right has no presence whatsoever in Ukraine. In the last elections, held in 2019, a bloc of far-right parties won just over 2% of the vote,” states the article published yesterday to which Ragozin referred. The argument, repeated ad nauseam by those who limit themselves to reviewing the election results to analyze the country's balance of power, remains striking, not only because it coincides with the new rise of the spiritual, political and, if media such as The Times are to be believed , also a military leader of the Ukrainian far right, Andriy Biletsky, founder of Azov, to whom Foreign Policy dedicates an extensive report.

“The Azov unit was founded as a volunteer militia in 2014 by a heterogeneous group of far-right radicals. Shortly thereafter, it became part of the National Guard, a force under the Ministry of the Interior. Azov was initially identified by its association with far-right parties and figures, exacerbated by Russian propaganda that used this history as proof that Ukraine is a country of neo-Nazis threatening “genocide” against Russian-speaking Ukraine,” the article admits in its opening section, which then uses the usual arguments to claim that any youthful sins of Azov’s leaders in the past are behind them. The fact that the leaders remain the same, that both Biletsky and Prokopenko come from hardline backgrounds and that they have not shown any ideological shifts at any point, is irrelevant to those who, for reasons of political and geopolitical opportunism, are willing to accept what in 2014 caught the attention of even openly anti-Russian media outlets like The Daily Beast , which was surprised by the fascist tendencies observed within the group. One of the veterans of that Azov era is today the guardian of Ukraine's memory from his position at the head of the Institute of National Remembrance. The visible faces have not changed, nor has their ideology or the objects of their hatred, anything that can be identified as Russian, their culture, society, or the Ukrainian population, who feel closer to Moscow than to present-day Ukraine. However, for Foreign Policy , the 2019 election result is more relevant than the fact that both Prokopenko and Biletsky now have their own armies and have become some of the most significant units in Ukraine's generously funded by the West.

Of particular significance is the way in which the Western press has turned Biletsky, who was always a political leader for his far-right followers, into a military reference. “Hated and feared by President Putin as the face of Ukrainian nationalism, Colonel Andriy Biletsky, 46, has survived attempts on his life and accusations of neo-Nazism that would have ended the careers of most. Yet now he is responsible for the lives of 20,000 soldiers, having risen to command despite having no formal military training,” wrote The Times in a practically hagriographic article last July . It doesn't occur to the journalist to think that the reason someone like Biletsky, trained in street fighting and leader of the shock troops that made both Maidan and the repression against his detractors in cities like Kharkiv possible, has achieved his current relevance precisely because of the strength of the far right, which has managed to push the state so far to the right that its discourse is no longer distinguishable from the official narrative.

“Biletsky is no stranger to controversy and remains a highly controversial figure within Ukraine, although he is considered by many to be one of the country's most effective military commanders. He learned to fight pro-Russian protesters on the streets of his hometown of Kharkiv, 32 kilometers from the Russian border, and honed his combat skills during a prison term as the leader of the nationalist group Patriot of Ukraine,” the outlet writes, without explaining what role Biletsky played against Antimaidan, alongside then-Mayor Kernes and Interior Minister Avakov, considered his patron. They simply describe the paramilitary and extremely violent group Patriot of Ukraine, the main source of the most mobilized sector of the country, as nationalist . Biletsky, known for not getting too close to the front and widely criticized by his Azov comrades for doing nothing to rescue the contingent of the movement besieged by Russian and DPR forces in Mariupol, is portrayed by the Western press as a successful commander with a strong following among his soldiers.

“When The Times visited their sector of the front, the soldiers spoke of Biletsky with reverential tones, referring to him in absentia by his patronymic, a form of his name usually reserved for polite personal address. ‘We have debate clubs where people talk about things far beyond the war, such as future technology, business ideas, or the path the country should take,’ explains Biletsky. ‘They feel like warriors, but also like citizens, with every right to speak and think about the future,’” the article continues, preferring to believe that this attitude of the soldiers, many of them veterans of the movement or the party, is based on the leader’s goodness or his personal and military qualities, and not on the quasi-fascist cult that has prevailed in Azov since its formation.

But even those aspects that can be corroborated in the simplest way are called into question by the leader's response alone. "There have been cases of violence as a disciplinary measure for failures in combat or, in the past, for political disagreements, something he denies. 'There are extreme conditions, and sometimes extreme measures are taken. It's not true; I don't beat my subordinates,'" The Times claims , despite clear examples proving the contrary. One of them is that of Serhiy Filimonov, now the leader of a rival far-right group, the Da Vinci Wolves , who was summoned for consultations at the Azov headquarters and beaten, at Biletsky's instigation, by his former colleagues.

Another important aspect of the Azov movement has always been its foreign policy and a reactionary internationalism it has cultivated for more than a decade. “I always tell my people: in the foreseeable future, we will not be at war with Great Britain, the United States, or France. Therefore, we are completely open to working with technology companies from those countries,” he states. “We provide full access. Our great advantage is that we provide after-action analysis, test results, and real data from battlefield use, so people want to work with us. Obviously, that gives us access to advanced technologies,” the interview continues. The journalist fails to notice the brigadier general’s subtle reference to those who currently supply them with weapons, but who may be their future enemies. “First Ukraine, then Europe,” was one of the foreign policy slogans of one of the movement’s ideologues, Olena Semenyaka.

But despite his radical stance, Biletsky's position is more moderate than that of the European hawks, who oppose a ceasefire, and even more so, an agreement that would halt the war for an extended period. Although the article doesn't dwell on this, Biletsky has made it clear in the past that a pause in the war would allow Ukraine to carry out the work of social cohesion, which Azov sees exclusively as the imposition of the nationalist vision he advocates. “Even if a fragile peace were agreed, Ukraine should militarize its society along the lines of Israel,” he says, “with a view to recovering territory. ‘Our military-industrial complex can become a major engine of the Ukrainian economy after the war. We cannot live on donations and subsidies. Our expertise and a large Ukrainian military could become a key component of European security,’” writes The Times , explaining that, despite everything, Biletsky is relatively open to negotiations with Russia, admitting that, under current conditions, Ukraine is not capable of recovering lost territories. Biletsky, an integral part of the Ukrainian state establishment today, does not appear to have received the information that has convinced the most skeptical, including Donald Trump, that it is possible to do so and recover the “country’s original composition.”

"I think we will recover our territory," continues the newly appointed brigadier general, pointing to a solution that, interestingly, was also mentioned yesterday by Dmitro Kuleba, former Ukrainian Minister of Foreign Affairs. "Ukraine is surviving this war as a state, emerging from it stronger, bloodied, but stronger as a state, as a nation, without some territories, but also without legal recognition of the loss of those territories," commented the former diplomat, who mentioned two examples, Finland and Karabakh, as options available to Ukraine. Aside from the short-term tactics, Kuleba advocates waiting "for the moment when we can recover the territories."

For Biletsky, the choice is clear and the same. “I am convinced that Russia will face a period of internal turmoil. By then, we must have a united society and a strong military force so that, like Azerbaijan in Nagorno-Karabakh, we can quickly reclaim what is ours when the opportunity presents itself,” he told The Times . This argument is the same as that used by senior state officials like Mikhail Podolyak, who are betting everything on creating instability in Russia, always with the aim of taking advantage of the opportunity militarily. Last weekend, the usually more restrained Zelensky even referred to provoking hunger riots. The fact that Biletsky's ideology increasingly coincides with the official ones does not reflect the moderation of the white leader but rather the radicalization of the state. Even if the Western media tries to make it seem that way, determined to whitewash the past, present, and future of a movement that, if it existed in any other European country, would be considered a dangerous far-right group.

https://slavyangrad.es/2025/10/02/gener ... -biletsky/

Google Translator

******

From Cassad's Telegram account:

Colonelcassad
The General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces stated that up to 20,000 North Korean workers are currently employed in the Russian military-industrial complex (last year, the figure was 11,000). North Korean army units also remain in the Kursk region, conducting engineering work.

Naturally, if the enemy were to invade our territory there again, they would again clash with North Korean units. Kim Jong-un previously confirmed that North Korea would fully support Russia's actions in conducting the Joint Military Operation. According to the military cooperation agreement, North Korean troops can legally operate on Russian territory. North Korea interprets the war in Ukraine as Western aggression against Russia, with Ukraine serving as a NATO proxy army. Therefore, joint actions between Russia and North Korea are defensive in nature and fully fall under the military cooperation agreement. It also implies that if someone attacks North Korea, Russia will provide similar assistance to Kim Jong-un, up to and including deploying troops on its territory if necessary.

***

Colonelcassad
The enemy reports that more than 300,000 people are without power in the Chernihiv region following strikes by Russian armed forces. The situation is described as critical. Strikes on substations in the Chernihiv region have caused serious problems.

Power outages are also being experienced in Zaporizhzhia and Dnipropetrovsk regions. The attempt to target the Belgorod Thermal Power Plant has its price.

***

Colonelcassad
There are currently no power supply issues at the Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant. This has been confirmed by the IAEA.
Minor outages occurred after the destruction of substation 330 in Slavutych. After this, the Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant quickly switched to backup power.

https://t.me/s/boris_rozhin

Google Translator

******

Brief Frontline Report – October 1st, 2025

Report by Marat Khairullin and Mikhail Popov.
Zinderneuf
Oct 01, 2025

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Message from the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation: "Assault units of the 36th Guards Combined Arms Army of the 'East' Group of forces have raised the flags of the Russian Federation over the settlement of Verbovoe in the Dnepropetrovsk region."

The Armed Forces of the Russian Federation, with the force and persistence of an icebreaker, continue to break through the defense of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the Dnepropetrovsk region in the direction of the settlement of Vishnevoe. Today, the settlement of Verbovoe (47°52′33″N 36°23′07″E, about 240 residents) was liberated, the last major stronghold of the Ukrainian Armed Forces' defense in this direction. Two Ukrainian groups defending this sector in the areas of Velikomikhailovka (Velykomyhaylovka)- Orestopol and Vishnevoe - Pervomayskoe have been cut off. Next is the complete isolation and separate destruction of each of them.


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A supporting strike from south to north, Verbovoe - Alekseevka is likely to strengthen the flank.

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ЛБС 31.5.2025=Line of Combat Contact May 31st, 2025. Участки Активности=Area of Activity.

But the main task is to reach the Vishnevoe area and cut the Pokrovskoe - Vishnevoe - Uspenovka route (Pokrovskoe is just north of Danilovka and Vishnevoe, above where the map cuts off), and encircling the line of positions Vishnevoe - Poltavka, stretching along the Yanchur River from the north.

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https://maratkhairullin.substack.com/p/ ... ctober-1st

*****

Summer 2025 Azov Lobby Review

Ukraine's most powerful neo-Nazis promise to revolutionize the military-industrial-tech complex
Moss Robeson
Sep 30, 2025

Welcome to another seasonal edition of the Azov Lobby Review. Unlike Winter and Spring 2025, this post will be partially paywalled. Also, Substack says this is too long for some subscribers to read in their inbox.

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Horishny and Teplyuk at the 2025 YES conference

Horishny, who spent over two years as a prisoner of war after the NGU Azov Regiment surrendered in Mariupol, told those at YES, “The captivity made me better and stronger.” Furthermore, “I instruct people how to protect and return our land.” In fact, Horishny is an instructor for a new “404” youth movement associated with the NGU Azovites. David “Khimik” Kasatkin, another famous former Azov POW and deputy commander of the Azov Brigade’s sniper detachment, leads the new group. He is also evidently a neo-Nazi, as I covered in this Twitter/X thread. Recent pictures and videos from the “404 Movement” reveal numerous neo-Nazi shirts, including from the National Socialist Black Metal band “M8L8TH” (also known as “Hitler’s Hammer”). So much for depoliticization…

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404 Youth Movement, with M8L8TH fans circled in red

On the second day of YES, the very name of which alludes to the false promises recklessly made to Ukraine, the so-called “white fuhrer” of the Azov movement participated in this high-level event. Andriy Biletsky, the commander of the Azovite 3rd Army Corps, remotely joined a panel featuring retired U.S. general David Petraeus, a former director of the CIA; Carl Bildt, the former Prime Minister of Sweden, who co-chairs the European Council on Foreign Relations; Ukrainian Marine Corps major general Andriy Hnatov, the Chief of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, who previously commanded its Joint Forces; and Ukrainian general Yevhen Moisiuk, the Deputy Minister of Defense.

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Biletsky and Petraeus at YES

“The key issue is developing a strategy and new tactical approaches,” according to Biletsky, who is now hailed as one of the greatest military commanders in Ukraine. “In addition to the ongoing revolution in aerial drones, we are on the verge of another revolution, in my opinion. This is the revolution of ground-based robotic systems, which will radically change the battlefield and replace a significant share of soldiers, both in terms of logistics and combat use.” Here Biletsky is touting the military technology achievements of his openly neo-Nazi fighters, which was a focus of my Spring 2025 Azov Lobby Review — more about that below.

As told by the journalist Leonid Ragozin, the Polish Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski made a “striking admission” at the YES conference.

“If we are providing security guarantees to Ukraine, we are saying that we can start a war against Russia. But I don’t think this is either convincing or trustworthy. If someone wants to fight Russia, they can start it right away. But I am not seeing anyone willing. There is nothing worse in international relations than providing guarantees that can’t be trusted”.

So NATO membership promise has been a lie all along. A clear lie since Bucharest summit in 2008, which was followed by the war in Georgia a few months later. Also, “the coalition of the willing” has exactly zero members.

What was the necessity of throwing Ukraine under the Russian bulldozer when it was possible to build relations with Russia and gradually integrate it in Euro-Atlantic structures? Alongside Ukraine within its 1991 borders.

An appetite for war fueled by the defence industry lobby and the far right tilt of the Western mainstream. That’s the only answer.


A Brief Aside…

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Al-Sharaa and Petraeus in New York

Less than two weeks after his appearance at YES alongside a virtual Biletsky, former CIA director David Petraeus, who also led U.S. Forces in Iraq and Afghanistan, sat down at the Concordia Summit in New York with Ahmed al-Sharaa (AKA Abu Mohammad al-Julani), the President of Syria since January, who once had a $10 million bounty on his head from Washington after he launched an off-shoot of al-Qaeda with support from ISIS. Presumably, Biletsky would prefer to follow in Al-Sharaa’s footsteps then, say, Osama Bin Laden. As he said in a recent interview with The Times (UK), “I always tell my people: for the foreseeable future, we are not going to be at war with Britain, the United States or France. So we are completely open to working with tech companies from such countries.”

Nazi Military Tech Updates
In the spring edition of this newsletter, I introduced readers to the Snake Island Institute (SII) and AB3 Tech, a new think tank and “startup accelerator” created by the Azov movement, and in particular its 3rd Assault Brigade (3AB or AB3), which now spearheads Biletsky’s 3rd Army Corps. Those outfits involved the “NC-13” platoon that originated in the AB3’s “Dirlewanger” company (inspired by one of the most sadistic Nazi military units), and the Azovite “Killhouse” drone school. As a reminder, after visiting the latter AB3 training facility in February, former CIA director David Petraeus predicted that Ukraine “will be the military-industrial complex, the most important one in all of Europe.” The Azov movement obviously intends to play a key role in this process, and Petraeus is among those cheering them on.

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Petraeus with Azov veterans at the 2024 “US-Ukraine Freedom Summit” in Washington just three days before the news broke that the State Department approved the NGU Azov Brigade to receive U.S. weapons and training.

In early July, the 3rd Assault Brigade declared that its NC-13 unit (now said to be in the “Deus Ex Machina” company of the 2nd Assault Battalion) “carried out an unprecedented operation … using only drones and ground-based robotic systems.” Furthermore, the Azovites claimed, “this is the first successful assault in modern warfare using exclusively unmanned platforms! The robots are fighting, and you are in command — join now!” Just days earlier, the 3rd Assault Brigade announced the expansion of “KillHouse Academy” with the opening of the “School of Ground-Based Robotic Systems.” By August, NC-13 was officially designated a “company of ground-based robotic systems.”

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Biletsky awarding a Glock-19 pistol to NC-13 commander Mykola Zinkevich, seen on the right wearing his modified Dirlewanger patch

As spring turned to summer, the Snake Island Institute joined Defense Tech Week in Prague (represented by the possible girlfriend of the NC-13 commander), signed a memorandum of cooperation with the elite special forces “Omega” unit in the National Guard of Ukraine, and held its inaugural event in Kyiv. At some point in the coming weeks, SII reportedly “took part in an invite-only defense workshop” at the Royal Air Force Club in London that it connected with the Omega group. The latter received the ten drones built at the workshop, which also raised money for a “Combat Driven Innovation Showcase” in Lviv organized by Snake Island Institute. Tech entrepreneur Martin van der Heijden hosted the London event. He’s the CTO and co-founder of 11xAI, a British startup that “builds automated digital workers that can be used in lieu of human employees.”

SII president Vladyslav Sobolevsky, a former football hooligan and alleged war criminal, who became an important member of Biletsky’s political party and a deputy commander of the 3rd Assault Brigade, has said that his think tank “works directly with key decision-makers in both Ukraine and the U.S. to develop strategic alignment, increase institutional capacity, and support battlefield innovation with a long-term vision.” According to SII’s young executive director, Maryna Hrytsenko, “our mission is ambitious - we are a strategic bridge of Ukraine to the world. The voice of the Ukrainian military on an international level. We act as a direct communication channel between our Defense Forces, technological innovators and strategic allies.”

The June SII event in Kyiv started with a presentation, allegedly to “an audience of senior military officials, government representatives, civil society leaders, and international partners.” That was followed by a roundtable discussion that included Maj. Gen. Vadym Skibitsky, the deputy chief of Ukraine’s military intelligence agency, which is linked to the CIA, to put it mildly. One of Skibitsky’s predecessors, Maj. Gen. Illia Pavlenko, also participated. Here are some of the other speakers:

Eveline Buchatskiy is the managing partner at the Kyiv-based “D3 Defense Tech Fund,” which sponsored a May 2025 “hackathon” in Lviv alongside the “incredible team” at AB3 Tech, KillHouse Academy, the NC-13 platoon, and the “Galician Youth,” a local neo-Nazi group connected to NC-13. Buchatskiy’s daughter Catarina is the Director of Analytics for Snake Island Institute, who I wrote about in the spring. More recently, Eveline announced that Denmark’s state-owned Export and Investment Fund “joined D3 as an investor.” Earlier this year, D3 co-founded the Ukrainian Council of Arms Manufacturers, which is reportedly expected to “help the country attract funds from allies to the Ukrainian defense-industrial complex for the production of weapons according to the ‘Danish model’ and the creation of joint defense enterprises.”

Lt. Col. Giorgi Kuparashvili is the head of the Azov movement’s “Yevhen Konovalets Military School,” which formed the 354th Separate Mechanized Regiment. He led the first Azov delegation dispatched to Washington in 2022, and claimed to have met “over fifty” members of Congress in that trip alone. In 2016, Kuparashvili represented Georgia at the founding conference of the “Intermarium Support Group” — part of Azov’s white nationalist geopolitical agenda — and the following year, he met representatives of the U.S. Defense Threat Reduction Agency that visited the NGU Azov base in Mariupol.

Lesia Ogryzko, a visiting fellow at the EU-funded European Council on Foreign Relations, directs the Sahaidachnyi Security Center in Kyiv. Before founding this Ukrainian think tank, Ogryzko was the “Deputy Chief of Party” of the USAID Civil Society Sectoral Support Activity Program in Ukraine, according to her LinkedIn account. Before that she worked for the United Nations and Ukraine’s Cabinet of Ministers, among other things.

Yuriy Filatov is reportedly the “Head of UAV [Unmanned Aerial Vehicle] Operations” for the 3rd Army Corps. Apparently he is not a neo-Nazi, and perhaps not even a far-right nationalist, but an “Enterprise Architect with the overall experience of near 20 years helping big companies to maintain or regain their efficiency and startups to grow from zero to sustainable operations.” In 2015-17, he helped Ukraine’s Finance Ministry develop an online portal. Before the war, Filatov was the CTO of BrainRocket, a multinational “IT Software Development Company of the Future.”

Stanislav Ryzhenkov, a former platoon commander in the NGU Azov Regiment, now advises the mayor of Kyiv as the “Commissioner of the Kyiv City Council for the Rights of War Veterans.” According to Ryzhenkov, the war didn’t end for him. “I just changed weapons. Now my front is veteran politics.” Despite losing an arm, he says that joining Azov was “the best decision of my life. Because there is no such brotherhood as there. This is not just a unit. This is a family that will always support you.”

In early July, the Snake Island Institute hosted a delegation from the neoconservative American Foreign Policy Council (AFPC) in Washington, “including congressional staffers from both parties.” They were joined, as always, by Mykola Hryckowian from Pennsylvania, a representative of the “Bandera Lobby” who heads the DC office of the Center for US-Ukrainian Relations (CUSUR)—formerly housed by the AFPC—and serves as president of the Organization for Defense of Four Freedoms of Ukraine (ODFFU) headquartered in Manhattan. (Readers of my other Substack may recall, CUSUR and ODFFU are Ukrainian American OUN-B front groups, and the Banderites have arranged annual AFPC trips to Ukraine for over a decade.)

According to SII, “Our team also facilitated meetings for the [AFPC] delegation with the Deputy Commander of Ukraine’s 3rd Army Corps [Maksym Zhorin], the Chief of the Defence Intelligence of Ukraine [Kyrylo Budanov], and representatives of the International Legion — Americans volunteering in the Ukrainian Army.” It was on the initiative of Zhorin, a former commander of the NGU Azov Regiment and leader of its openly neo-Nazi “Borodach Division,” that a neo-pagan shrine was installed on the NGU Azov base in Mariupol in 2017, which involved a ceremony that featured Nazi salutes and bloodletting. In June 2025, the Embassy of Ukraine in Japan hosted Zhorin and Kyrylo Berkal, another important Azovite, who led the 2017 ceremony.

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2017 ceremony at the Azov base in Mariupol

As subscribers already know, Andriy Biletsky’s former press secretary Oleksandr Alfyorov became the director of a more powerful Ukrainian Institute of National Memory this past summer. In early September, SII president Vladislav Sobolevsky joined a panel discussion hosted by UkrInform (AKA the National News Agency of Ukraine) on the topic of national memory. According to SII, the speakers “stressed that history is also a battlefield.” In addition to Alfyorov, there was Andriy Yusov, a spokesperson for Ukrainian military intelligence; Serhiy Belyaev, Deputy Minister of Culture and Strategic Communications of Ukraine; and George Barros from the DC-based Institute for the Study of War, who previously “served as a policy advisor on Ukraine and Russia for a U.S. House Foreign Affairs Committee member.”

In the coming days, AB3 Tech organized a forum dedicated to “ground-based robotic systems” with SII, NC-13, and the Ukrainian Council of Arms Manufacturers, co-founded this year by the D3 venture capital firm. Meanwhile, the Azovites are not far removed from the “drone revolution” taking place in the United States.

(Video at link.)

As I wrote in the spring, SII’s Director of Analytics, Catarina Buchatskiy, the daughter of D3’s managing partner, is dating Soren Monroe-Anderson, the CEO of California-based Neros Technologies. According to CNN, Monroe-Anderson’s tech startup company, funded by right-wing billionaire Peter Thiel, is “part of a new guard of US firms in the defense industry sphere” and already among the “leading US drone producers.” In July, U.S. Secretary of Defense/War Pete Hegseth released a video (which may have featured one of Neros’ products, Archer Strike), “Unleashing U.S. Military Drone Dominance.” Monroe-Anderson excitedly shared this post. “It’s official,” he said. “America is going to build millions of drones. Proud to have our Archer Strike featured as the FPV drone of choice for the US military.”

(Video at link.)


In the past month, the Department of Defense/War’s Defense Innovation Unit selected Neros as a “Phase 2 Project GI winner, after two weeks with Marines at [Camp Pendleton in California], deploying Archer in realistic scenarios.” According to Neros, its Archer drone was “part of the discussion & demonstration” during Hegseth’s recent visit to the 75th Ranger Regiment of the U.S. Army. Neros also thanked representatives of the army’s Fort Irwin National Training Center for visiting its drone factory a couple weeks ago.

In late August, Catarina and Eveline Buchatskiy spoke at “TechBBQ” in Copenhagen, said to be “the biggest tech and innovation event in Scandinavia.” They joined a panel discussion, “From Crisis to Capability — How Ukraine is Pushing the Boundaries of Defense Tech.” The many other speakers included TikTok’s Managing Director in the Nordics & Central Europe, the Director of Public Policy for Meta’s Northern Europe division, the Deputy Associate Administrator of NASA’s Space Technology Mission Directorate, the CEO of The Atlantic, the Chief Product Officer of LinkedIn, the Chief Editor of The Copenhagen Post, the Chief Europe Correspondent at Shanghai Media Group, the French Deputy Ambassador for Digital Affairs, and the Chief Information Officer at Denmark’s Export and Investment Fund.

Meanwhile in Lviv, the “Head of Projects”/“Head of Defense Tech” at Snake Island Institute joined a conference supported by the EU Delegation in Ukraine: “Joint Ventures, Joint Defense — How Europe and Ukraine can leverage each other’s innovations.” I wrote about SII’s representative, Viktoria Honcharuk, in the spring, who I believed to be the girlfriend of the neo-Nazi NC-13 commander. (Now I’m not sure, forgetting how I came to that conclusion.) Honcharuk, who used to work on Wall Street, co-founded SII and AB3 Tech. Since 2022, she returned to Ukraine and wound up in the medical service of the 3rd Assault Brigade. “Now we see a new trend: the Ukrainian military codifying their innovations together with companies. This is the path forward,” Honcharuk said in the last panel discussion, moderated by Martin Jõesaar from Brussels, who leads the EU Defense Innovation Office in Kyiv.

The “Joint Ventures, Joint Defense” conference was organized by “Tech Force in UA,” which is described as “a coalition of over 60 leading defense tech manufacturers” in Ukraine. The main partner of the event was the Munich-based Quantum Systems Group, an international “aerial data intelligence company” which is allegedly “one of Europe’s fastest-rising defense drone firms” and has “deepened its partnerships across NATO and allied nations,” in particular Ukraine. According to Quantum Systems, it is “at the forefront of AI-powered aerial robotics, developing a family of smart systems that go far beyond traditional drones.”

Around this time, Snake Island Institute helped to bring graduates from Harvard University and Massachusetts Institute of Technology to Ukraine for the 2025 “Harvard/MIT Ukraine Trek.” SII president Vladyslav Sobolevsky and executive director Maryna Hrytsenko spoke to participants at the “CDTO Campus” in Kyiv. As explained by its website,

In 2020, the Ministry of Digital Transformation of Ukraine established the position of CDTO (Chief Digital Transformation Officer). These officers, embedded within government bodies, are responsible for leading and implementing digital transformation across all areas of Ukrainian public life. CDTO Campus is a national educational initiative dedicated to preparing CDTOs and their teams — digital leaders capable of implementing innovative technological projects within public administration.

According to SII, by hosting Ukraine Trek at the CDTO Campus, “Defence Intelligence of Ukraine and representatives of Ukraine’s 3rd Army Corps and their subsidiary Kill House Academy were connected directly with global changemakers.” Earlier this year, as I wrote here, Sobolevsky and Honcharuk (who was accepted to Harvard before returning to Ukraine in 2022) joined Azov instructor Giorgi Kuparashvili at the 2025 Technology and National Security Conference hosted by Harvard Business School and MIT. Liudmyla Kurnosikova, the “lead organizer of the trek,” is an alumni of Harvard’s John F. Kennedy School of Government who used to work for the Ukrainian consulate in Hamburg.

Shortly before Andriy Biletsky’s appearance at YES, it became official that the (openly neo-Nazi) “Kraken” unit controlled by Ukrainian military intelligence is forming a drone regiment in Biletsky’s 3rd Army Corps. Kraken, of course, originated in the Azov movement, so this is hardly a surprising development. Two days after the AB3 Tech forum, Ukraine’s military intelligence agency announced “a new level of cooperation” between itself and the 3rd Army Corps, with the creation of the “Kraken 1654” regiment. “And they are already starting to build a new high-tech unit.”

Oleh Romanov, one of the neo-Nazi commanders of Kraken 1654, founded KillHouse Academy and formerly led the 3rd Assault Brigade’s anti-tank battalion. His family lives in Washington. Perhaps it should come as no surprise that the Azov movement’s pet filmmaker Lubomyr Levitsky, who I wrote about here, has an action movie in the works, “KILLHOUSE,” which was produced in collaboration with military intelligence and Biletsky’s unit. Maryna Hrytsenko, the executive director of SII, even has a role in the film as the Vice President of the United States. Currently, Hrytsenko is in Washington for another round of meetings on Capitol Hill, accompanied by SII leaders Sobolevsky and Honcharuk from the 3rd Assault Brigade.

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Catarina Buchatskiy, Lubomyr Levitsky, and Maryna Hrytsenko on the set of “KILLHOUSE”

https://azovlobby.substack.com/p/summer ... E%E2%80%9D

*****

No time to waste – Tomahawks and SM-6s plus UAVs: what the Russian Aerospace Forces might encounter
Today
2:38 PM

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Launch of the RGM-109E TLAM-E strategic missile launcher from a Mk 143 ship-based launcher. Photo: seaforces.org

Although officials in Moscow continue to unanimously assert that the likely acquisition of BGM-109E TacTom Tomahawk Block IV/V strategic cruise missiles by the enemy, as well as ERAM missiles, will not be able to influence the operational-strategic situation in the region, in reality the picture is much more complex.

On the one hand, it is well known that the BGM-109E strategic cruise missiles, as well as the latest Ukrainian long-range tactical missiles R-360M Neptune-MD (Long Neptune), are far from the most sophisticated air attack weapons for the majority of domestic air defense systems, not to mention the transitional generation of fighter aircraft.

For example, Tomahawks and Neptune-MDs flying at 780–850 km/h at flight levels of 35–70 m at a distance of up to 35–45 km can easily lock onto the 9S36M and 92N6 illumination radars of the Buk-M3 and S-400 systems for precise automatic tracking, after which they can provide illumination to the semi-active homing heads of the 9M317MA and 48N6DM anti-aircraft missiles.

If these systems are equipped with even more modern 9M317MA and 9M96DM anti-aircraft missiles with active homing warheads, interception can be accomplished not only within the radio horizon (the aforementioned 35-45 km), but also far beyond it (50-100 km). For the 40N6 or 9M82MD anti-aircraft missiles for the S-400 and S-300V4 systems, this range can reach 250-300 km.

But there's a caveat: for such over-the-horizon interceptions, at least two or three A-50U AWACS aircraft must be on duty at the time of enemy strikes in missile-prone areas. Their operators, using the Shmel-M radar system, are capable of detecting BGM-109E missiles at a range of approximately 120 km. Su-35S fighters can also serve as "mini" AWACS aircraft; their pilots will be able not only to detect Tomahawks at a similar range and provide target designation to the four aforementioned anti-aircraft missiles using their Irbis-E onboard radars, but also to shoot them down with their own R-77-1 and R-37M missiles.

In theory, everything is feasible, but in practice, unfortunately, negative "moments" in the Anti-Aircraft Missile Forces constantly make themselves felt. AWACS aircraft remain on duty sporadically. Su-35S patrol units are not always present in missile-prone areas (or are untimely). This means that enemy units continue to find opportune "windows" for strikes.

One consequence of these "windows" is the recent strike of just four Neptun-MD tactical missiles on the Karachayevo Elektrodetal plant in the Bryansk region. Add to this the endless airstrikes on oil refineries not only in the border region, but also in Bashkortostan, the Volgograd region, and several other regions. All of this is a consequence of those very same temporary "windows" of absence of fighter aircraft and AWACS patrols.

The absence of 24-meter 9S838 telescopic elevation and rotation devices and 40V6MD universal turrets from Buk-M3 and S-400 Triumph anti-aircraft missile batteries at the time of a Tomahawk strike could cause an equally wide range of negative consequences. These devices increase the radar horizon for stealth aerodynamic targets at altitudes of 30 meters from 25 to 37 and 43 kilometers, respectively. In this situation, numerous "blind spots" would form between the SAM batteries, dispersed over 100 kilometers, through which both Tomahawk cruise missiles and the stealthier ERAM cruise missiles, 800 of which could be delivered to the Ukrainian Armed Forces as early as spring or summer 2026, could easily penetrate.

As for identifying "blind spots," these tasks (as we have repeatedly noted) are easily accomplished by ICEYE radar reconnaissance satellites and a number of NATO and even Japan Self-Defense Forces radar reconnaissance satellites, including IGS-Radar, whose data is also provided to the Ukrainian Armed Forces. In border regions, at operational depths of approximately 380–450 km, these tasks are handled by RC-135V/W Rivet Joint strategic electronic reconnaissance aircraft.

More importantly, if large quantities of Tomahawk Block V cruise missiles are delivered to the Ukrainian Armed Forces, a batch of 533mm vertical launchers will also be delivered. This likely involves improvised launchers in 40-foot containers, as full-fledged Typhon medium-range launchers are not yet being produced at such a high rate.

However, this doesn't change the fact that these launchers can also fire the SM-6 Block IB and SM-6 Dual II ultra-long-range surface-to-air missiles. Consequently, with a range of 240–320 km, these anti-aircraft missiles, when deployed 150 km from the Ukrainian-Russian border, can cover 90–170 km of our airspace, extending the range of the UFAB-500M-62/T gliding missiles used by Su-34NVO crews.

More importantly, these launchers (land-based equivalents of the Mk41 naval VPU) can use the SM-6 strike/anti-radar modification, with a range of 450-600 km and an average trajectory speed of approximately Mach 3.3-3.7. These missiles will be able to reach a number of our military-industrial facilities in the Moscow region, which is a very serious problem. However, unlike the Tomahawks, intercepting SM-6 Dual II missiles flying on a ballistic trajectory at 1,100 m/s will be much easier.

But we mustn't forget that the General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces is not preparing to use the BGM-109E and SM-6 missiles individually, but is developing a tactic for combining strikes with these missiles, heavy Flamingo-5 and Neptune-MD cruise missiles, and hundreds of gasoline-powered and jet-powered Morok and Peklo UAVs to oversaturate the target channels of our air defense assets. Therefore, without a full reconfiguration of the air defense system from the border to the deep rear and the regular deployment of A-50U AWACS aircraft, it is impossible to talk about intercepting all Tomahawks and other missiles.

Delaying now is simply unacceptable, since the Pentagon and the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine have targeted the most critically important facilities – military-industrial complex enterprises and Russia’s energy infrastructure.

https://eadaily.com/ru/news/2025/10/01/ ... vks-rossii

*****

Ugledar. A year later

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Liberated Vuhledar. A year after its liberation.
Serious reconstruction of the city has yet to begin.
However, its liberation broke the dam, and the enemy has still been unable to stabilize the front southwest of Donetsk. The offensive that rolled west after the liberation of Vuhledar led not only to the liberation of the entire southern DPR but also to further advances in the Zaporizhzhia and Dnipropetrovsk regions. Vuhledar was a key Ukrainian Armed Forces outpost in southwestern Donbas, and the consequences of its loss are still being felt by the enemy. Flags raised by stormtroopers a year ago still hang on the local administration building.

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https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/10103693.html

In September, the Russian Armed Forces liberated 609 kilometers of territory.
October 1, 1:02 PM

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In September 2025, the Russian Armed Forces liberated over 609 square kilometers of territory, according to Lost Armor @lost_armour.
Almost as much as in the record-breaking July. This is in response to the cocaine-fueled Führer's fantasies about stabilizing the front and holding territory. Even massive counterattacks near Krasnoarmeysk and in the Sumy direction were of no avail. The main thing is that the positive trend continues, even compared to the first half of the year. The growing hysteria in the West, mixed with threats, stems in part from this dynamic at the front.

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/10102839.html

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"There is great chaos under heaven; the situation is excellent."

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Re: Footnotes from the Ukrainian "Crisis"; New High-Points in Cynicism Part V

Post by blindpig » Fri Oct 03, 2025 11:57 am

Drones, Patriots, and the Ukrainian Lab
Posted by @nsanzo ⋅ 03/10/2025

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Yesterday, demonstrating that contacts have not completely broken down, Russia and Ukraine exchanged a total of 370 soldiers, in addition to around twenty civilians. This prisoner swap seems to be the only positive and conciliatory news at a time when the smiles of the leaders of European countries and institutions are returning to their former selves when referring to their increased participation in military assistance to Ukraine. This week, Ursula von der Leyen announced the delivery of €2 billion to develop drone production, and the EU is finalizing the formula by which Kiev can dispose of the retained Russian assets in February 2022. As reported by several media outlets and as proposed last week by Chancellor Friedrich Merz, everything indicates that the ruse will be to offer Kiev a loan worth these Russian assets, to be delivered in phases—the EU does not trust Ukraine enough to put such a sum of money in its hands—and which Ukraine will not have to repay until Russia pays war reparations. In other words, the EU, aware that Moscow will not offer Kiev such a concession, guarantees itself a loan that Ukraine will not have to repay and, using the creative legality that The Times columnist Mark Galeotti warned against last week , seeks to prevent Russia from being able to litigate and emerge victorious. The message, with which Brussels sets a figure for the reparations Ukraine deserves—equivalent to the Russian public and private assets held in the European Union—is also one of a complete lack of willingness to negotiate, as all parties are aware that such steps force Russia to redouble its efforts, given the certainty that the Western camp has no other solution than a military one. And although the EU tries to downplay its importance, if this expropriation were carried out, in all but name, it would send a message to other non-EU countries, which could perceive a lack of legal certainty in the European financial system, causing the instability Olaf Scholz warned about when he blocked any discussion on this matter.

Whether or not the gradual transfer of Russian assets to Ukraine occurs, it is clear that this war will not lack funding, especially for those sectors where European industry has lagged behind and Kiev can act as a production outsourcing site. This is the case with drones, in which European capitals have placed a significant portion of their hopes. It is there, in the most innovative aspect of this war—which, with this exception, was a conventional high-intensity ground conflict—where Kiev is having the most success. Particularly relevant is the increase in Ukrainian attacks against Russian oil refineries, an action supported by the United States, eager to lose export market share to a rival product. According to Lenta.ru , the attacks have affected 38% of Russia's refining potential, a figure that Ukraine manipulates to claim it has disabled almost 40% of Russian operations, without taking into account the repair capacity that Russia has demonstrated during this time.

Drone attacks on such key infrastructure, as shown in the graph published by the BBC , worsened in August, a month in which Russia alone was criticized for maintaining or increasing its level of attacks at a time when the United States was trying to boost diplomacy. The air war has always been mutual. Now, more distanced from Russia than ever, the White House is explicitly supporting Ukrainian offensive actions. This is according to an article published yesterday by The Wall Street Journal, which simply reports on the intelligence support the United States has been providing to Ukraine for more than three years.

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“The United States will provide Ukraine with intelligence to launch long-range missile strikes against Russia's energy infrastructure, U.S. officials have said, as the Trump administration considers sending Kyiv powerful weapons that could reach more targets inside Russia. President Trump recently approved intelligence agencies and the Pentagon to assist Kyiv with the strikes. U.S. officials are asking NATO allies to provide similar support, these people said. The expanded intelligence sharing with Kyiv is the latest sign that Trump is deepening his support for Ukraine as his efforts to advance peace talks have stalled,” the outlet writes, seeking to add a touch of novelty to what is, in reality, the confirmation of White House support for this war, which has already embraced the continuation of practices inherited from its predecessor.

Considering the UK's important role in providing intelligence to Kiev, the part of The Wall Street Journal 's exclusive , in which the outlet claims that the US is demanding its partners do the same, also makes it seem as if the leak is intended as a threatening message to Russia, which is being told that things will only get worse with Washington's increased presence in providing precise information for deep-sea attacks on Ukraine, which could perhaps be carried out with the subsonic Tomahawk missiles that Ukraine is now pleading for, and not just with its drones.

The triumphalism of exaggerating successes and assuming victory with promises of the future that, in reality, announce something already happening doesn't hide the difficulties kyiv is facing in defending itself. The attacks, much more conspicuous and susceptible to being misinterpreted as great victories that perhaps aren't so great, coexist on both sides of the front with the difficulties of responding to the enemy's improvements.

This week, kyiv is once again boasting about the large sums invested by some European countries, including Denmark and Germany, through the mechanism created by NATO to acquire weapons for the front. Although grateful for the collaboration of its partners, allies, and suppliers, Zelensky has warned that Ukraine expects to receive more than €1 billion in weapons per month under this scheme, a continuous and growing flow that he hopes will begin with increased deliveries of Patriot anti-aircraft systems. This was the request that the Ukrainian president once again made to the German chancellor yesterday. Protecting Ukraine's skies has been the obsession since the Russian invasion, and despite the arrogance displayed last week by Andriy Yermak, who boasted that "this is not like 2022," the pleas continue unabated. Despite the massive mobilization of resources by European countries and other allies outside the continent, such as Israel, which recently joined the deployment of Patriot systems, kyiv is still unable to effectively defend its airspace. Only the triumphant news from its air force, which in daily propaganda fiction announces an interception rate that has never been credible, speaks volumes.

The solution, in Kiev's eyes, to virtually every problem is that Western air defense systems have limitations and face an enemy whose ingenuity and ability to expand its potential have been widely underestimated. This was confirmed yesterday by the Financial Times , which proclaimed on its front page that “Russian missile upgrades outperform Patriot defenses.” “Devastating Russian airstrikes carried out for months suggest Moscow has managed to modify its missiles to evade Ukraine's air defenses, according to Ukrainian and Western officials. The bombings that targeted Ukrainian drone manufacturers this summer were a prime example of Russian ballistic missile upgrades to better defeat US Patriot batteries, current and former Ukrainian and Western officials told the Financial Times ,” writes correspondent Christopher Miller, a veteran of this war since it began in 2014 and known for having well-placed sources in the Ukrainian political echelons.

“Russia has likely modified its Iskander-M mobile system, which launches missiles with an estimated range of up to 500 km, as well as the Kinzhal air-launched ballistic missiles, which can fly up to 480 km,” Miller continued, adding that “the missiles now follow a typical trajectory before veering into a dive or executing maneuvers that ‘confuse and avoid’ Patriot interceptors.” The result, according to one of the article’s sources, is “a revolutionary change for Russia” that, in the words of the same former Ukrainian official, comes on top of the delays it is allegedly experiencing in deliveries of air defense interceptors. For Ukraine, both claims of major victories and admissions of serious problems are, in reality, an opportunity to demand more weapons, more funding, and more speed from its partners.

“Ukraine’s ballistic missile interception rate improved over the summer, reaching 37% in August, but plummeted to 6% in September, despite fewer launches, according to public Ukrainian air force data compiled by the London-based Centre for Information Resilience and analyzed by the Financial Times ,” Miller continues, introducing the most important point. With fewer projectiles, Russia is achieving more hits—in other words, better results based on the improvements it has been able to make to its missiles, coupled with the evident modernization of the Shahed missiles originally from Iran, which Ukraine is no longer able to shoot down as easily as it was a year ago.

Following data showing that Ukraine needs even more help defending its skies, Miller offers the icing on the cake. “Ukraine shares data on the use of the Patriot system with the Pentagon and U.S. air defense system manufacturers, Western and Ukrainian officials said. Virginia-based Raytheon manufactures the Patriot system, while Maryland-based Lockheed Martin produces the system's interceptor missiles. The data is used to make the necessary upgrades to keep up with Russia's adjustments, but one official said those improvements often lagged behind Moscow's constantly evolving tactics,” Miller concludes. In addition to being a tool in the common proxy war against Russia, Ukraine is the ideal laboratory in which to test the capabilities of Western hardware against Russian weapons in high-intensity combat situations.

https://slavyangrad.es/2025/10/03/drone ... e-ucrania/

Google Translator

******

From Cassad's Telegram account:

Colonelcassad
The enemy is complaining that a drone strike in the Kharkiv region killed 13,000 pigs on a pig farm.

It's worth remembering that the enemy has previously attacked pig farms in the Kursk and Belgorod regions several times. For example, the Otkrytie agricultural firm in the Kursk region lost over 25,000 pigs to Ukrainian Armed Forces strikes in the Korenevsky district alone. Some of the pigs fled to the southern regions and then ate the corpses there, mostly those of dead Ukrainian soldiers.

Or, again, on April 12, 2023, the Ukrainian Armed Forces shelled a pig farm in the Belgorod region, killing 178 pigs. And so on and so forth.

***

Colonelcassad
Following Putin's statements yesterday that he considered the seizure of a Benin-flagged tanker off Saint-Nazaire an act of piracy, the French suddenly released the tanker today and it set sail, despite Macron previously declaring plans to detain such tankers for several weeks. The tanker's assistant captain was released yesterday. However, the captain was scheduled to be detained until January 2026 "for investigation."

The captain was also released and sailed away with the tanker.

***

Colonelcassad
Another strike on an oil refinery ? Last night, a fire broke out at the Yaroslavl Oil Refinery. The Ukrainian side quickly announced a strike on another oil facility, while Yaroslavl authorities claimed the fire was not caused by a drone strike. They did not specify the cause. But in this situation, whether there was a strike or not (and it's more likely than not) is irrelevant. The fire broke out, the refinery's operations were halted, and amid a massive fuel shortage and a sharp decline in exports, this is another blow to our economy. Previously, on September 26, Ukrainian drones struck the Afipsky Oil Refinery in the Krasnodar Krai again. The number of attacks in September reached 21. The intensity decreased towards the end of the month, but the enemy achieved its desired result. According to preliminary data, approximately 40% of the refineries' capacity was lost, which amounts to almost 338,000 tons per day. The total capacity available for gasoline and diesel fuel production fell by 6% in August and another 18% in September. And 70% of the downtime was the result of drone attacks. Everyone is already feeling the shortage. In Crimea, fuel availability remains limited. When available, it's sold in 30-liter packages. In Sevastopol, despite announcements about pricing controls, prices remain as high as ever. It's high time to consider increasing the protection of our strategic facilities. While air strikes have decreased, this is likely due to the weather, which won't be particularly favorable until October 4-6, and then we should expect more strik

https://t.me/s/boris_rozhin

Google Translator

******

Trump wishes ‘good luck to all’ as Russia continues to advance in Ukraine

It seems that only a total victory on the battlefield for Russia will bring an end to Nato’s vicious proxy war.
Proletarian writers

Wednesday 1 October 2025

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As it stares into the face of an imminent military collapse, the Ukrainian regime (no doubt with ‘advice’ from its British handlers) is ramping up efforts to bring Nato more openly into the fight. The war’s US sponsors, meanwhile, are doing their best to hand over the supervision/responsibility/expense of the collapse to their European partners-in-crime in the hopes of being able to actually get on with their much-vaunted ‘pivot to Asia’.

A month ago, US president Donald Trump appeared to be all in favour of doing a deal with his Russian counterpart whereby Ukraine would give up land in return for peace.

With Ukraine’s actor-stooge ‘president’ Volodymyr Zelensky usefully marginalised and the two presidents engaged in intensive head-to-head diplomacy in Alaska, it seemed possible that a deal could be struck whereby Zelensky, or his successor, could be forced to get serious about negotiating the terms of Kiev’s surrender – the only real deal to be brokered.

Yet now President Trump is bragging on Fox News that the Kiev junta could still regain all the land it has lost, and posting on his TruthSocial account that Ukraine “is in a position to fight and WIN all of Ukraine back in its original form.”

What can this mean? Has the Pentagon stumbled across some superweapon guaranteed to reverse the whole tide of the war?

There were some Simple Simons who took this fervid optimism at face value. French president Emmanuel Macron, up to his ears with mass street protests and threatened economic meltdown at home, was happy to escape to the United Nations where he could congratulate Trump on his reassurance that Ukraine can “not only hold on, but ensure its rights prevail”.

And Zelensky himself, quizzed by a journalist as to whether Trump’s shift on the role of land concessions could help end the war, told him: “I think so, and God bless.”

However, cooler heads will have noticed that Trump’s seeming optimism is tempered by some rather important caveats. The social media post which sparked the Fox interview actually reads: “I think Ukraine, with the support of the European Union, is in a position to fight and WIN all of Ukraine back in its original form” (emphasis added).

But that support is precisely what European governments, beset by their own economic crisis, political turmoil, rocketing energy bills and emptying weapons arsenals, are finding it very difficult to provide.

When Trump posts that “Putin and Russia are in BIG Economic trouble, and this is the time for Ukraine to act. In any event, I wish both Countries well. We will continue to supply weapons to NATO for NATO to do what they want with them. Good luck to all!”, what is expressed is not so much a revival of confidence in the ability of the collective west to beat Russia, as the sound of a vigorous washing of hands in the White House.

The hollow “Good luck to all!” could not ring more cheerlessly.

Kiev’s Gleiwitz gambit: Europe on the edge of 1939 redux
In desperation, the Kiev junta has been staging false flag attacks on its neighbouring countries in the hopes that they – and all of Nato – can be dragged in as open participants in the war before it is too late and the whole Ukrainian front collapses. And all the signs are that this collapse will come very soon if no white horse comes over the hill to save the demoralised and broken remains of the Ukrainian armed forces.

According to Gerry Nolan of The Islander Telegram channel:

“History doesn’t just repeat – it mutates. In 1939, the world stumbled into catastrophe after Nazi operatives staged the infamous Gleiwitz incident: a radio station seized, a body left as ‘proof’, and a lie broadcast to justify war.

“Eighty-six years later, whispers from the battlefield suggest Kiev may be scripting its own Gleiwitz 2.0. Only this time, the stage is Nato’s eastern flank, the props are repurposed Geran drones, and the audience is a sleepwalking Europe.

“Hungarian journalists were the first to sound the alarm: several downed Russian drones, repaired at the Lorta plant in Lvov, had been transferred to Yavoriv – the Nato training ground just 10km from Poland. Their reporting frames this not as clever engineering, but as desperation.

“The defeat Ukraine faces is no longer tactical; it has metastasised into a strategic collapse. And with collapse comes the most dangerous instinct of all: to drag collective Europe down into the abyss.

“The choreography is grotesquely simple: patch up the drones, load them with warheads, fly them into Nato supply hubs in Poland or Romania under the false flag of a ‘Russian attack’. Then unleash the western media chorus, cue the Article 5 panic, and push Europe into a war it neither asked for nor can survive.

“Just as in 1939, a manufactured spark could set the continent ablaze.

“Why would Kiev take such a suicidal gamble? Because its army is broken. The reserves are spent, the warehouses of its sponsors emptied, the once-mighty ‘arsenal of democracy’ is itself teetering. For Kiev, provoking Nato’s direct involvement is not a choice, it is the last card in a deck worn thin by defeat.

“False flags become not just possible, but inevitable, when survival depends on manufacturing enemies larger than yourself.

“And drones are perfect for such theatre. Each Geran carries up to 90kg of explosives, and with minor modification, even wreckage can be made combat-ready again. Crude, cheap, devastating. Every launch forces Nato to waste million-dollar interceptors, humiliating its defences. For Kiev to turn these drones against Nato under false colours would be an act of desperation, but also of cold calculation.

“Yet the real battlefield is not the skies but the information space. Every incursion, every explosion, becomes a contested story. Was it Russia? Was it Ukraine? Or Nato itself? In the fog of narratives, perception replaces reality.

“And the west has a long tradition of manufacturing pretexts: from Iraq’s phantom WMDs to Syria’s chemical ‘red lines’. Why should Ukraine’s survival be any less dependent on deception?

“Here lies the bitter irony: while Kiev toys with Armageddon, Moscow calibrates, warns, and shows restraint. Russia signals red lines, but it is the west’s proxy that now toys with continental annihilation. Europe, once again, is the hostage – and in this hostage drama, the ransom is nothing less than peace itself.

“The echoes of 1939 are unmistakable. Then, the world stumbled into war because a lie was allowed to masquerade as a casus belli. Today, if Kiev executes its Gleiwitz gambit, Europe could stumble into World War 3 – and not by necessity, but by deception.

“The multipolar order will rise regardless; what remains in question is whether Europe destroys itself before accepting reality. History’s verdict will not be kind to those who gamble with false flags on the edge of the abyss.” (26 September 2025)

https://thecommunists.org/2025/10/01/ne ... e-advance/

*****

Will the Ukrainian army turn its bayonets against Kiev?
by Gordonhahn
September 30, 2025

{Spanish language translation and publication from: https://estatuadesal.com/2025/03/25/o-e ... ra-kiev-2/}

As I have stated many times when noting the growing weakness of the Maidan regime and the Ukrainian state, the Ukrainian army can become a major force of destruction for both the regime and the state. Defeat after defeat, military catastrophe after military catastrophe, Ukrainian soldiers, often courageous, die purely for the domestic and foreign political advantage of Ukrainian leaders.

Thus, from Mariupol to Bakhmut, from Avdeevka to Krinky, and now from Sudzha to Kursk, Ukrainian President Volodomyr Zelenskiy and his television production team from the series "Slugi naroda" (Servants of the People), which has become a political party, have refused to allow Ukrainian forces, often surrounded and defeated, to retreat to preserve lies and maintain stagecraft. There will come a time when Ukrainian officers and soldiers will rise up to end their own slaughter.

The 'Servants of the People' and the rest of the Ukrainian elite, by consistently prioritizing their personal propaganda and domestic political needs over soldiers' lives and simple military logic, are fomenting anger and a thirst for revenge among the rank and file. Several videos posted by military personnel in recent months express in the starkest terms the frustration, anger, pain, and hatred felt by many officers and troops toward Zelenskiy and his 'Servants.' Take, for example, this video of an enraged Ukrainian soldier threatening Zelenskiy and the entire elite: "You will pay for everything."

As I noted earlier, the models that should guide us in analyzing this situation are the uprisings and revolutions that have occurred in the past, motivated by war, particularly defeats in wars.

In 1917 Russia and Weimar Germany, demoralized, disaffected, and degraded soldiers turned their bayonets against the established powers. In 1917 Russia, this happened quite literally, as soldiers became the third part of the Bolshevik " holy trinity " of "workers, peasants, and soldiers" who populated the Party, overthrew the Romanov dynasty and then the Provisional Government, the Red Army, and populated the apparatus of the new Soviet state. In Weimar Germany, defeated soldiers, disgusted by the " stab in the back " of the Treaty of Versailles, became the backbone of the National Socialist, or Nazi, Party. Adolph Hitler himself was one of these distraught, revenge-seeking soldiers. Even in victory, soldiers can be transformed by the experience of war in entirely unpredictable ways. Russia's victory over Napoleon and its rise to leadership in Europe intensified the Imperial Army officers' sense of a historic role, which transformed into a feeling that Russia needed to abandon autocracy and establish a constitutional regime if it wanted to maintain its position at the forefront of international affairs.

Ukrainian President Volodomyr Zelenskiy recently declared (January 2025) that Ukraine's armed forces number around 800,000 soldiers (see here ). This sounds impressive, though it is likely exaggerated at this point—as is Zelenskiy's wont—by several hundred thousand. However, this still represents a formidable force not only for Russian forces to wear down, but for Ukrainian politicians to manage. And they are not managing it well. As I have demonstrated countless times before, the Ukrainian armed forces, like the entire Ukrainian state, are rife with the most cynical and massive corruption—a corruption that is intensifying as the war is being lost and people's futures need to be bought (see here ).

Leaving aside the endless series of battlefield defeats, the army is now staffed by reluctant civilians, many torn from the streets, their homes, their wives, and children, and forced to fight in what many Ukrainians now perceive as a lost cause. Much of the population is hiding or hiding their husbands, sons, brothers, cousins, and friends from the roving bands of state army "mobilizers." Furthermore, Ukrainian volunteers are dwindling. In January, there were fewer than 1,000 at a time when the country is in dire need of fighters to counter the growing Russian offensives on almost all fronts (see here ). There are also reports of 63,000 Ukrainians missing in action (see here ). But what's more, many who are on the rolls and supposedly fighting at the front are actually hiding in rear areas, refusing to fight (see here ). In addition to more than a million Ukrainian casualties (including hundreds of thousands of deaths), power outages, and other hardships, many of them suffered by families with members still fighting at the front, can this all end well?

Russia is reportedly demanding an 80 percent reduction in the Ukrainian army (see here ). Such a cut in Kyiv's armed forces—depending on when it occurs and after what level of attrition has been reached—would leave hundreds of thousands of evil, angry, desensitized to violence, and perhaps armed men on the streets—an army now likely unemployed, purposeless, malleable, and seeking revenge.

If or when Zelenskiy, or any other Ukrainian leader, signs a peace agreement agreeing to relinquish Crimea and the four oblasts Russia has claimed so far, even if only “ temporarily ” and not legally, the number of enraged military personnel and their families will only increase, particularly among the numerous and influential ultranationalist and neo-fascist groups. Neo-fascist groups, such as Azov and, through the Ukrainian Volunteer Corps, the Right Sector, are deeply rooted in the military and will be outraged by any compromises made by a Ukrainian regime with “ subhuman Russians ” and will seek to “ complete the nationalist revolution .” Dissatisfied and enraged soldiers will be excellent recruits and fodder for carrying out that revolution.

All of this forms a potentially explosive matrix of instability and chaos, which could lead substantial parts of the Ukrainian military to turn their weapons against Kyiv, which underlies Zelenskiy's reluctance to engage in compromises with Russia to achieve peace. He cannot speak about this without further demoralizing the army, outraging neo-fascists, and tacitly acknowledging the power of the neo-fascist element in Ukrainian politics—something Kyiv has worked hard to cover up, explain away, or deny.

Indeed, Zelenskiy is caught between two flames, both domestically related to this issue and, more generally, as he is abroad, trapped between US pressure for peace and the advance of the Russian army. Like Ukrainian society, the Ukrainian military (and perhaps also the intelligence and security agencies) is divided between those who no longer support the war or are unwilling to fight, such as those coercively mobilized, and those who are virulently opposed to peace with the Russians, such as the neo-fascists. This polarization of views forms the basis for a potential civil war or, at the very least, an intense internal conflict in Ukraine, as any peace agreement approaches.

It's not just Zelenskiy who must consider this dangerous scenario described above. If a peace agreement is followed by a neo-fascist coup in Ukraine and/or if what remains of the country descends into chaos, what will Russia, Europe, and the US do? Russia will likely be inclined to use military force, " breaking " any treaty. Moscow can justifiably argue that any treaty it signed was signed under a different leadership, and with the coup or the absence of any central regime and state order, all commitments are canceled, and Russia must ensure its own security by removing the new Ukrainian regime.

Will the US, let alone Europe, be willing to cooperate with Russia to end such a coup or replace a new neo-fascist regime? If not, will there be a NATO-Russia Ukraine War 2.0, which will follow War 1.0 almost immediately? Will a European " coalition of the willing " confront Russia?

The Maidan uprising, fueled by Washington and Brussels, opened a Pandora's box. The West continued to open new boxes for nearly a decade—arming Ukraine, refusing to hold Kyiv to its Minsk commitments, and so on—until Moscow opened the biggest box of all. Closing these boxes and preventing the opening of the biggest Pandora's box may be beyond the reach of both Russia and the " collective West ."

https://gordonhahn.com/2025/09/30/o-exe ... ntra-kiev/

******

Mike Mihailovich ...

... who I know from joint broadcasts at RT et al, penned an article in Air Forces Monthly magazine. Keep in mind, Mike is a professional AD officer from Serbia.

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Mike is being diplomatic in this (I believe British) magazine, including a standard "objectivity" term such as "the truth is somewhere in the middle", but he is absolutely correct when stating that "Kinzhal still unbeaten" in the title to his professional note.
Needless to say, Russians do not view all versions, including latest MSE, of Patriot PAC3 as a viable anti-missile defense. It still can shoot down combat aircraft and some cruise missiles with drones--it is absolutely incapable of intercepting any kind of hypersonic weapons and supersonic ones such as P-800 Oniks. It has huge issues with classic land-attack cruise missiles such as 3M14 and Kh-101. US has absolutely no defense against hypersonic missiles anywhere on the horizon. It is simple physics--M=9+ maneuvering hypersonic missile (apart from huge issues of detecting, tracking and, let alone, having firing solution) requires a new philosophy in developing AD missile to even try to intercept a single 3M22 Zircon, not to speak of a salvo of same. The technological challenge is immense and NATO has no answer for that. Fact is, good ol' P-700 Granit (SS-N-19 Shipwreck) can still provide leakers in salvo against modern NATO navies' AD.

P.S. Per these French escapades with a "shadow fleet" tanker. Well, Russian Navy will have to simply establish convoy system. Does Marine Royale want to get sunk? Or better yet, how many Oreshniks it takes to free some good real estate areas in Paris?

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http://smoothiex12.blogspot.com/2025/10 ... ovich.html

*****

Zaluzhny's New Op-ed Brings Frontline and Tech Progression Update, Plus Some Grave Admissions
Simplicius
Oct 02, 2025

Last week, ex-Commander-in-Chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces Valery Zaluzhny penned another informative strategic think-piece on the war in Ukraine, that serves as a technological update on his previous piece written in 2023.

You’ll recall the previous one infamously prescribed victory for Ukraine by calling for the flooding of Ukraine with overly-ambitious tech boondoggles like ‘subterranean plasma robots’ which can bypass the drone-imposed ‘no man’s land’ on the topside. I covered the piece at the time:

Zaluzhny Pens Oped for The Economist: "How to Win the War" - Analysis
Simplicius
·
November 3, 2023
Zaluzhny Pens Oped for The Economist: "How to Win the War" - Analysis
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The Economist featured a new Oped penned by none other than Valery Zaluzhny—Commander-in-Chief of the AFU—himself.

Read full story

The new endeavor is understandably much more down to earth—perhaps time has given Zaluzhny critical perspective on the error of his ways in believing that unrealistic pie-in-the-sky ‘wunderwaffen’ and ‘game changers’ will be the key to Ukraine’s salvation.

The new article can be read in full here: https://zn.ua/eng/innovation-as-core-of ... h-war.html

https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_ ... 08x808.png[/img]
https://zn.ua/eng/innovation-as-core-of ... h-war.html

First let’s briefly note the symbolic difference in confidence between the new title and that of the first article from 2023. The previous one was called ‘How to Win the War’, while the new one has subtly pruned expectations essentially to: ‘Denying Russia’ the ability to dictate its terms. Going from winning the war outright to merely slowing down Russia’s juggernaut is quite a demotion of realistic objectives.

The article begins with Zaluzhny rhetorically gauging his previous 2023 piece’s foresight:

What, then, has happened in the past two years? Was I right when I argued that today’s war would be so dynamic and so technological? And, most importantly, do we now have any clear sense of what the next two years will bring?

He immediately answers his own question to the negative—that he was wrong on key predictions. He doesn’t say exactly which, but the implication was that he felt Ukraine needed to ‘seize the technological initiative’ (presumably, by way of his various farfetched ideas like the aforementioned plasma bots) and had failed to do so.

However, things turned out differently. But as I explored the exhibition, I realized that I was right about something.

A profound reappraisal of the 2023 summer offensive arose not only from the attempt to turn a most difficult phase of the war into a kind of reality show—first, when our plans somehow reached Russia, and then as the course of the operation was narrated online by would-be prophets, many of whom later found themselves sanctioned or on wanted lists. I still feel the sting of that failure. Yet the essential point was that lessons had to be drawn and strategy had to change, immediately. A strategy for survival in a wholly new kind of war.


He goes on to the portion of the article which has garnered the most controversy in Western circles: his condemnation of the 2023 ‘counteroffensive’ and Kursk debacles as pointless and wasteful operations.

As an aside, it’s interesting what Zaluzhny says about the AFU’s inability to operationally ‘break through’ in 2023:

Breaking such a front required decisive superiority in capabilities at the breach point, together with mobile reserves capable of rapidly entering the created gap and moving into the operational depth before enemy reserves could counterattack or establish a new defensive line. For both objective and subjective reasons we were unable to generate that superiority prior to the assault.

This shortfall in capabilities stemmed chiefly from the dispersal of the already-prepared assault grouping across other axes, and from the creation of land components drawn from other ministries and agencies—which, as a consequence, were, putting it mildly, not fully ready for contemporary combat.


You see, it has been an established narrative that US generals were desperately trying to get Zaluzhny to pile all his army corps into one powerful fist to strike down into Melitopol and Crimea. It was said that Zaluzhny is the one who overrode them on this point, choosing to instead “hedge” his strengths in several different axes, which culminated in the much-farther-east Vremovka ledge line going down toward Staromlinovka. Thus, it’s odd that Zaluzhny here faults what appears to be his own decision as the chief point of failure of the offensive, though he does heap other failures on partners afterwards.

He goes on to rehash the fact that the conflict is a ‘positional stalemate’ due to the inability of operational breakthroughs—a deceptively misleading point, but tailored for the consumption of his audience, and the narrative he’s pushing.

Another interesting point comes when he compares the current conflict to that of US and NATO’s ‘sweeping victories’ of the last few decades:

Interestingly, the major military conflicts of the early 21st century—in Syria, Iraq, Libya and elsewhere—did not culminate in a positional deadlock. This stemmed from two principal reasons.

First, enemy forces were defeated largely through remote air strikes and the employment of precision-guided munitions, specifically air- and sea-launched cruise missiles, supplemented by the manoeuvres of a limited contingent of ground troops.

Second, these wars pitted high-tech armed forces—such as those of the United States and NATO allies—against deliberately weaker adversaries, often scattered remnants of organized Soviet-style armies or irregular partisan formations. In Ukraine, by contrast, Russia faces for the first time in this century a near-peer adversary—high-tech thanks to our partners—though smaller in size and resources.

The experience of our war so far shows that stocks of precision weapons are quickly exhausted. Large-scale air operations are blunted by air defences. And once again, as in the mid-20th century, classical ground combat has returned to the centre of war.


Next, he states something critical, and contradictory: that the positional stalemate approach actually benefits Russia and its unique advantages. This seems contradictory because the designation of ‘stalemate’ implies no advantage on either side.

The problem of positional warfare has revealed another pattern. The transition to positional warfare leads to its prolongation and carries great risks for both the Armed Forces and the state as a whole. In addition, it benefits the enemy, who makes every effort to restore and increase its military power. This may have been the single most important point: without a radical rethink of strategy, success in the field was in jeopardy.

So, this style of warfare actually benefits Russia and brings Ukraine’s ‘success in the field’ into ‘jeopardy’. He correlates this by again implying that the continued development of the current status quo, which he deems a deadend or ‘cul-de-sac’, is ‘predictably unacceptable’ to Ukraine’s prolongation.

It’s like the argument over immovable object versus the unstoppable force—one cannot exist in a universe where the other is a known factor. The simple existence of an ‘unstoppable force’ logically presupposes no ‘immovable object’ exists. Similarly here, how can a ‘stalemate’ exist if the situation is admittedly not in Ukraine’s long term favor?

Zaluzhny is even forced to disclaimer his own ‘apparent’ bias:

I know this hands my opponents another pretext to complain that I study Russia too much—an offence, in their view, while the war continues on. Still, I choose Sun Tzu over my critics: know your enemy.

He elaborates further by describing the current frontline disposition under the drone deadlock:

Today the picture on the battlefield is clear: large concentrations of personnel—even in defence—are no longer tenable. Any massing of troops invites near-instant destruction by FPV strike drones or by artillery adjusted by UAVs. Consequently, defence is organised as dispersed positions held by small groups operating autonomously under extreme strain. The lethal zone is widening: the recent strikes on civilian traffic on the Sloviansk–Izium and Sloviansk–Barvinkove routes illustrate how precision fires now reach deep into what used to be the rear. Naturally, not only are lines of communication wrecked; the very idea of a secure rear is fading, since its customary location behind the forward echelons—anywhere within 40 kilometres—is no longer tenable under persistent enemy fire control. As a result, defence is shifting away from active defense of positions in concert with second echelons, reserves and supporting firepower, toward the bare survival of small units constantly pressed by both remote reconnaissance-strike systems and the enemy’s tactic of swarming attacks by small infantry groups.

The important point he makes here is that one of the main reasons for the current ‘low density’ frontline is that even Ukrainian defense was forced to change its doctrine. Now defense units are pulled back to second echelons or further and only a kind of bare-minimum skeleton garrison is kept on the very first line. This first line acts more as ‘bait’ to draw out Russian troops for Ukrainian drone units on the second line.

Russia itself, however, counteracts this by then attacking in increasingly smaller group sizes to rob these Ukrainian drone teams of kill opportunities. It’s been widely discussed how Russian assaults have whittled down from 5-man teams to now often just 2 and 3-man teams.

Here a Russian frontline analyst shares a recent update on this count, which I’ll break down to comment on:

(Paywall with free option.)

https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/zal ... -frontline

*****

Technology for 21st-Century Warfare
October 2, 11:02 PM

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Wars of the 21st century will be high-tech and futuristic.

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/10106210.html

Google Translator
"There is great chaos under heaven; the situation is excellent."

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Re: Footnotes from the Ukrainian "Crisis"; New High-Points in Cynicism Part V

Post by blindpig » Fri Oct 03, 2025 2:35 pm

Blood for the blood god

Formation of the assault forces: Syrsky's loyalist guard. Conflict in the army. Kursk. Right Sector, bandits, warhammer.
Events in Ukraine
Oct 03, 2025

Ever since the failed counter-offensive of 2023, Ukrainian high command has struggled with two problems. First, the unwillingness of lower level commanders to obey suicidal commands to go on the offensive. Second, insufficient manpower to cover the entire front, forcing advanced units to exhaust themselves by trying to stem each new Russian advance.

Yesterday, we saw ex-head of the army Valery Zaluzhny warn about the short-sightedness of copying Russian infantry assault tactics. Today, we’ll take a look at how exactly new Ukrainian military reforms are aiming to do exactly that.

Back in early 2024, Zelensky replaced Zaluzhny with Oleksandr Syrsky. Syrsky is a great fan of going on the offense, and lacks Zaluzhny’s fear that bloody counter-offensives could be counter-productive in the long term.

Syrsky was nicknamed ‘the Butcher’ for his disregard for his subordinates’ lives during the Bakhmut campaign (2022-23). And in late 2024, he demonstrated that in practice with the doomed, large-scale incursion into Russia’s Kursk region.

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Syrsky

Undeterred by the total collapse of the Kursk operation in the spring of 2025, Syrsky remains fixated on the need for new offensives.

Now, the head of the army has created his own personal guard, totally willing to implement all his orders - the assault forces. The western-funded nationalist press has attacked Syrsky’s new project as ‘catastrophic’, claiming that the units involved have taken massive losses in the urge to demonstrate their loyalty to the commander-in-chief.

For whatever reason, these highly critical articles on the assault forces from the likes of BBC Ukraine and texty.org haven’t been translated to English.

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Google translator at work

Today we’ll take a look at what exactly these new assault forces are. It turns out that they are largely composed of units commanded by the fascist ‘Right Sector’. Syrsky chose these units because they unflinchingly took part in his Kursk adventure - in contrast to other commanders, who criticized Syrsky’s folly and were sacked as a result.

This also leads us to an interesting conflict in the Ukrainian army - that between the older, well-known airborne assault forces and the new assault forces. Syrsky always wanted to get rid of the airborne assault forces, especially when they dared to criticize his Kursk campaign, as I wrote here:
The wars inside the war
Events in Ukraine
·
August 19, 2024
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The units making up the assault forces publicly attack other commanders who criticize their dear Syrsky. The assault forces themselves have as their emblem Syrsky’s own battle alias - ‘snow leopard’. Hence their description by many as Syrsky’s personal guard, ready to follow any order.

Meanwhile, the assault forces are commanded by an extremely colorful former member of Right Sector, Valentin Manko — agro-bandit, plunderer of frontline civilians, formerly wanted by Interpol, and quite a great deal more. Loyalty and willingness to expend human life can be very good for one’s career, it seems.

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We’ll take a look at the ‘extremely harsh’ methods of punishment used to discipline their forcibly mobilized troops, as well as the cult of Evgeny Prigozhin among assault-loving Ukrainian ‘landsknechts’.

And speaking of landsknechts, we’ll end by examining at what another landsknecht of the Ukrainian army has been saying, Sergey Korotkikh, alias ‘Bloodsucker’. Korotkikh, another leading figure in the assault forces, is constantly fighting on social media against nationalists pessimistic about the war. Like Manko, Korotkikh’s only military experience is a lifetime of struggle in criminalized neo-nazi paramilitary groups.

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I wrote about Sergey Korotkikh here and here

For opportunists like Manko and Korotkikh, the war must continue as long as possible. The chaos god Khorne demands blood, as Korotkikh likes to put it.

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Korotkikh’s military unit is named ‘Khorne’, in honour of the Warhammer chaos god of blood, war, and murder. I wrote about Khorne and Korotkikh more here.

Aims
To begin with, what are the assault forces?

(Paywall with free option.)

https://eventsinukraine.substack.com/p/ ... -blood-god

******

Following Wallace's threats, Rogozin published a map of UK military installations.

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Following a series of high-profile statements from retired and current British officials, Dmitry Rogozin, former head of Roscosmos and senator from the Zaporizhzhia region, published a map on his Telegram channel, highlighting key defense industry facilities and nuclear infrastructure facilities in the island kingdom. The map also shows clusters of advanced industries with high growth potential and even the total number of jobs supported by the British Ministry of Defence.

Earlier, former British Defense Secretary Ben Wallace, responding to a question about what Kyiv and its NATO allies should do to end military action in the Ukrainian crisis, stated that, in his opinion, London should help Ukraine acquire long-range capabilities to make Crimea uninhabitable. Wallace bluntly calls for "strangling Crimea." Rogozin recommends that those who still believe reconciliation with the imperialist aggressors be mindful of Wallace's statement.

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At the same time, the UK Ministry of Defence has developed a new defence industrial strategy (Defence Industrial Strategy 2025 – Making Defence an Engine for Growth), which prioritizes placing the country at the forefront of defence innovation. To this end, the UK's defence ministry plans to expand the country's industrial base, transform procurement and acquisition systems, and establish new and strong partnerships.

https://en.topwar.ru/271742-posle-ugroz ... tanii.html

Google Translator

*****

The organizer of terrorist attacks on Russian territory has been eliminated in Ukraine.
October 3, 3:08 PM

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Former head of the 5th Counterintelligence Directorate, SBU Colonel Roman Chervinsky, reported that one of the organizers of terrorist attacks in Russia was eliminated in Ukraine.

He was also in the Special Operations Unit, which organized events in the occupied territories and in Russia.
A man with a Kazakh passport, who had all the information about the target's daily routine, came to Ukraine to assassinate him, but the first attempt was unsuccessful, because the Special Operations Unit member didn't get out of his car when his tire was deliberately punctured, but instead went to the service center.
But four days later, he left the gym, this officer, walked up to his car, opened the trunk, and put his gym bag in. A man approached him from behind, shot him in the temple, and walked back. And two days later, he left Ukraine. And after that incident, I realized that nothing works for us at all. (c) Chervinsky

. Basically, people are working. There is no statute of limitations for the crimes of Ukrainian terrorists.
The assassination department needs to be developed so that we don't have to embarrass ourselves in front of comrades Sudoplatov and Eitingon.

P.S. The photo shows Chervinsky with Poroshenko.

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/10106895.html

I had to leave my home and my usual life.
October 3, 5:04 PM

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I had to leave my home and my usual life.

I'm watching a video of a resident of the Dnipropetrovsk region complaining about the situation. The Russian army, they say, is advancing, and locals are forced to flee, abandoning their homes, businesses, and their lives. And in foreign cities, they say, successful people are becoming homeless.

And I can understand this woman far better than the lion's share of her compatriots. When a life carefully built brick by brick collapses in a single day, it is truly a terrible shock.

But! I refuse to understand this woman, because she "has been worried about those who were forced to flee the war since '22."

And haven't you been worried since '14, my dear? Well, you live thirty kilometers from the Donetsk region! Thirty kilometers away, for eight years, people who spoke your language, had the same passports, and the same rights, were killed, robbed, kidnapped, tortured, and raped with impunity.

Didn't anything bother you or alarm you at all? And when refugees were fleeced for absolutely everything, didn't it occur to you that it was somehow unbelievable?

And when people on TV openly said that fighting Russians was cool and profitable, didn't you think about what the Russians would hear?

Don't you like the government? Why did you like it when it wasn't your rights that were being violated? Why wasn't there any outrage then? Because your hut is on the edge? Well, now it'll be the first to burn.

(c) Igor Gomolsky

This blog has been writing about how the Maidan and the war will affect even those who live on the edge of the hut.
If you're not interested in the Maidan and the war, the Maidan and the war will be interested in you. And they'll grind you in their millstones. To paraphrase a well-known truism.
But back then it was so much fun "beating up the vatniks and Colorados on Bombasa."

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/10107271.html

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(Clearing the drafts... the Road calls, back in a few.)
"There is great chaos under heaven; the situation is excellent."

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Re: Footnotes from the Ukrainian "Crisis"; New High-Points in Cynicism Part V

Post by blindpig » Sun Oct 05, 2025 7:57 pm

Crimean Obsession
Posted by @nsanzo ⋅ 05/10/2025

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Inversely proportional to the distance from the front from which the proclamations are made, the Western actors in the war in Ukraine have regained the idea of ​​victory and are beginning to dream of offensive operations to expel Russia from the Ukrainian territories currently under its control. While European countries insist that Moscow is not winning the war, but do not dare to take the step of declaring Ukraine the winner, from across the beautiful ocean , Donald Trump writes that, with the help of the EU, Kiev can regain its original composition. And from across the English Channel, analysts and former British officials are working to fill the void left by the US president's message, which wished them luck but gave no hint of how the grand objective of liberating the southern territories of Ukraine, Donbass and, above all, Crimea, which would have to be conquered by Ukraine against the opinion of the population, which in the eleven years of Russian sovereignty has not shown, not even according to Western polls, any regret for the changes that took place in 2014.

Recovering the peninsula has been Ukraine's impossible dream for eleven years, always considering it a priority over others, such as Donbass, that could have been recovered a priori through Minsk. Moreover, the fact that the Minsk Roadmap, the only peace agreement negotiated and signed throughout this conflict, which has lasted more than a decade, did not resolve the Crimean issue has been one of the arguments used by Kiev to avoid implementing its part of the treaty. It is therefore not surprising that Crimea's status has resurfaced in the press and among European hawks since Donald Trump's message revived the idea of ​​a victory that cannot be achieved through negotiation, but rather requires a large-scale offensive operation, the likes of which have not occurred since Ukraine's failed attempt in 2023.

“Both from the perspective of forces and resources, as well as from the perspective of the moral and psychological state of society, we are not prepared for such operations. We must live in reality. At 23, we were already looking for a place on the beaches of Crimea. The current priority of our troops is defense, which will not allow the enemy to advance and take new Ukrainian cities. It will not allow us to go to the rear, occupy our fortifications. And then think about the offensive,” wrote Maksym Zhoryn, a Viennese, on his Telegram channel. Even members of the most extreme nationalist right, who have been fighting against Russia in Donbass for eleven years and are currently in compromised parts of the front, display a more reasonable attitude than the leaders of European countries and institutions. Without diminishing their nationalism and hatred of all things Russian, people like Zhoryn and Biletsky are less reluctant to a ceasefire than the liberal hawks who, from a distance, are prepared to continue fighting to the last Ukrainian. "I can't imagine what reason there is to talk about major offensive operations today, especially in Crimea," Zhoryn declared, as headlines began to appear that assumed it was a given.

The origin of a possible future offensive against Crimea is clear and in the press. “Ukraine could launch an amphibious landing in Crimea this year, according to a Sky News military analyst ,” was the headline, for example, on UNN . “Ukraine is preparing a massive offensive against Crimea,” claimed Visegrad 24, an account focused on anti-Russian propaganda that hasn't bothered to read the articles it comments on. Both headlines referred to information published in the United Kingdom, one of Ukraine's staunchest allies, where peace through compromise has always been considered—after the Russian invasion, but also before— an unacceptable concession. In reality, two articles published by Sky News and The Telegraph have been enough to bring Crimea back into the news and suggest that there is a plan for Ukraine to recover the peninsula, a dream that, as of today, is unfeasible.

In the first post, Michael Clarke, Sky News ' chief military analyst — an outlet that hasn't been known throughout this conflict for its extensive reporting capabilities or particularly reliable sources—answers audience questions, analyzes the current military situation in Ukraine, and asks what Kiev might do to achieve its objectives. When asked by his readers what they might expect in terms of Ukrainian attacks before winter, Sky News writes that "Clarke notes that the weather will turn cold, wet, and muddy towards the end of the month, but believes the Ukrainians may still have something up their sleeves. 'The Ukrainians like to spring surprises,' he says. 'They know that this not only affects the Russians on the front line, but also the West's perception of how Ukraine is doing.'" The analyst's words do not suggest anything more than speculation, a laying out of possible scenarios, without wishing to give the impression that he has sources suggesting that work is being done in this direction.

“Clarke adds that Ukraine has recently attacked several radar stations and air defense facilities, particularly in Crimea. “You can create a gap in the air defense curtain and then exploit it to achieve something even more valuable,” Clarke says. That could be “some kind of major attack in Crimea,” such as an airstrike or an amphibious assault, aimed at destabilizing the Russians somewhere, Clarke says. And given what the Ukrainians have now in terms of deep attacks, even a hit on the Kerch Bridge linking Crimea to Russia might not be inconceivable,” Sky News continues .

This is the origin of the headlines proclaiming that Ukraine could launch an offensive on Crimea, initiating a whirlwind of media reactions very useful for achieving the objective that kyiv usually seeks: causing nervousness in Russia, which is especially sensitive whenever threats refer to the Black Sea peninsula, important for its strategic position, for being home to the Russian fleet, and, above all, for having become the first territory and population recovered by Moscow since the dissolution of the Soviet Union. A "might not be inconceivable" is enough to revive false hopes of quickly achieving what was not achieved with the 2023 offensive that Ukraine prepared with its NATO allies in Germany, which was supposed to break the front precisely toward Crimea.

Making the possibility of a large-scale offensive with the most difficult, perhaps even decisive, objective more credible requires a plan. From the headline, "Putin is a sad little bully. That tells us how to finish him off in Ukraine," the latest article by former UK Defense Secretary Ben Wallace makes his intentions clear: to bet on the escalation of the war to inflict on Russia the military defeat that the European establishment and part of the US have been dreaming of for three and a half years—if not eleven years, since the outbreak of the protests in Crimea—. Wallace was Defense Minister under Boris Johnson, who is credited with playing a more important role than he actually played in the breakdown of the Istanbul negotiations, and also under the two that followed, under the brief tenures of Liz Truss and Rishi Sunak. During that time, the United Kingdom stood out as one of the leaders of the option to fight to final victory. The controversial trip by then-Prime Minister Johnson, who continues to engage in unofficial pro-Ukrainian lobbying, especially with his friend Donald Trump, since leaving the government, has been considered one of the reasons why diplomacy was abandoned. According to Ukrainska Pravda , Johnson's words, "We'll just fight," were decisive. Although Johnson's message to Zelensky should not be considered an order to continue fighting, but rather an announcement that Ukraine would have the material and funding to do what it wanted to do—fight to gain a better negotiating position—the United Kingdom's position on behalf of the West is relevant. The messages sent by London since that moment, always in favor of seeking Russia's complete defeat, have remained stable despite changes in government and ruling party.

Wallace's gaze, like Clarke's, is directed at the Kerch Bridge, a habitual obsession of Western analysts, lobbyists, and politicians who see it as a symbol that would undermine the morale of Vladimir Putin and the Russian troops. “The time has come to make Putin understand that he does have something to lose. The problem is that the West has failed to interpret him correctly. Putin is a sad little thug living in a world of fantasy and tsarist romanticism. The clues have always been there. The topless hunting trips on horseback in Siberia. The over-the-top palace on the Black Sea. The childish essays on Russia's destiny written by himself, distorting history to fit his narrative,” Wallace writes with the usual arrogance of Western supremacists, who continue to exploit images of Vladimir Putin's 2017 vacation as a plot device. Apparently, in their blindness of hatred and arrogance, the war is more about humiliating the Russian president than about the justice that Western countries claim to uphold.

Defining the conflict as "Putin's war," a trend that has become widespread in European politics and media circles in recent years, is useful to Wallace, who asserts that "if you understand the man, you will find the solution to this war." This was also the stance with which Donald Trump sought to resolve the war in a matter of days eight months ago. And while repeating the same actions expecting a different outcome isn't exactly a sign of rationality or understanding the situation, Wallace points to what he calls "the long-lost jewel in the Russian imperial crown" and insists that "as long as Crimea is safe, Putin is safe," so "we have to put Crimea in danger."

“Ukraine should focus almost entirely on making Crimea uninhabitable and unviable from a Russian perspective. Ukraine doesn't need to invade the peninsula (which, I admit, would be incredibly difficult, if not impossible), but it should suffocate it to death,” argues the former minister, with no concern for the well-being of a population that has never been of interest to kyiv or its Western allies. “The Kerch Bridge must finally be demolished, so supplies must pass through Ukrainian fire along the land bridge north of the Azov. Ukraine must launch drones over Crimea daily,” he proposes, using a strategy very similar to Israel's in Gaza: making life in Crimea unbearable, in this case without regard for the response Moscow would be forced to give against Ukrainian territory in defense not only of its position on the peninsula, but of its population.

To achieve this goal, Wallace adheres to the Ukrainian theory that every problem requires the same solution: more Western weapons. “Crimea must be the focus. If necessary, risks must be taken elsewhere. In the UK, we must help supply drones, both maritime and airborne. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz said that the Taurus missile, which could destroy bridges, should be sent to Ukraine when he was in opposition. He should send it now,” he insists, concluding that “all this is easier said than done, I'm sure, but a siege of Crimea will present Putin with a strategic dilemma. Ultimately, it may make him realize that peace is in his best interest as much as it is in ours.” Even the most radical hawks are aware that their proposals are suicidal gambles capable of causing more problems than they solve.

The slightest chance that the plan could succeed is worth it. Especially if the affected population is Crimean, which isn't even mentioned in its plans. Hence, the proposal is exactly the same as the one put forward in 2023, the objective of which was to advance toward the peninsula to jeopardize control over Crimea, at which point Russia would have to negotiate from a position of weakness, between a rock and a hard place, and accept the terms proposed by Ukraine. The plan, developed against a militarily much weaker Russia than it is now, didn't work, forced Ukraine to take the defensive position it maintains to this day, and not only did it not bring the two countries closer to negotiations, but it made them impossible.

https://slavyangrad.es/2025/10/05/obsesion-crimea/

Google Translator

******

From cassad's telegram account:

Colonelcassad
Republika Srpska President Milorad Dodik:

The EU is making the same grave mistake in Ukraine that it made in the Western Balkans. Everything that happened to us in the former Yugoslavia was a training ground for Western architects of global neoliberal processes, who were preparing for Ukraine. Of course, there's no comparison. Russia cannot be surrounded by NATO troops and isolated the way we Serbs were.

It's obvious that Western strategists need to draw Ukraine into their ranks so they can always blame Russia. They don't understand that the Russians don't really care what they're up to; Russia has its own path. And I can assure you here that Russia is stable, it has no internal problems that could destabilize it, and the policies pursued by President Putin are aimed solely at stabilization.


@dimsmirnov175

***

Colonelcassad
The strike on Ukraine. October 5, 2025.

It began on the evening of October 4 and continued until the morning of October 5. The enemy claims to have deployed over 700 drones and over 50 missiles of various types.
Air defenses performed very poorly, particularly in Western Ukraine, where energy, military logistics, and defense industry facilities were hit.
Multiple incoming strikes were also recorded in Odesa. In total, the strike hit targets in 12 regions of Ukraine.

The enemy has already declared this strike one of the most powerful since 2022 and continues to complain of power outages in several regions. The situation was particularly dire in the Chernihiv region, where several substations were destroyed.

It is noteworthy that after the strike, the cocaine-fueled Fuhrer immediately cried out for an "air truce," as he was not at all pleased with the results of the strike, and in the exchange of drone strikes on infrastructure, Ukraine is clearly losing. Meanwhile, the hysteria about a "NATO air shield," a "no-fly zone," and other such refrains has returned, circling since 2022.

In fact, Russia doesn't need a ceasefire; it needs peace. On the stated terms. Therefore, such strikes must be repeated. And it's clear they will be repeated. The Russian military-industrial complex has reached a level where systematic attacks with hundreds of drones, supplemented by missiles, no longer seem insurmountable. Production has increased exponentially over the past year. This is what produces the results shown in the picture.

https://t.me/s/boris_rozhin

Google Translator

*******

Ukraine – Russian Hit On Freight Train, Passengers Hurt

The Telegraph claims that Russian drones hit a civilian passenger train in Ukraine.

Russian drone strikes Ukrainian passenger train

A “savage” Russian drone strike on a passenger train in Ukraine’s Sumy region has injured dozens of people, Volodymyr Zelensky said on Saturday.

The Ukrainian president posted a video of a burning carriage, surrounded by shattered glass and splintered iron, that was hit in the strike.

Emergency services are at the scene in the city of Shostka and have begun tending to the wounded, said Mr Zelensky.

“The Russians could not have been unaware that they were striking civilians,” he added. “We’ve heard resolute statements from Europe and America – and it’s high time to turn them all into reality. Lip service is not enough.”

In the video, a man in an orange hi-vis jacket can be seen walking towards the burning train, while another picks something up from the debris.

The train was heading to Kyiv, the Ukrainian capital, and passengers were on board when it was struck at a railway station, Oleh Hryhorov, the governor of Sumy, said.

The status of the casualties was unclear on Saturday morning, with Mr Zelensky saying only that “so far, we know of at least 30 victims”.

Ukrzaliznystia, the Ukrainian state railway company, said there was a second strike on the Shostka train as an evacuation was under way. It said that three children were among the wounded.


The report comes with this picture which is credited to have been posted by the Ukrainian president.

Image

It seems that only the freight rain was hit. As the Ukrainian outlet Strana writes (machine translation):

Russia hit a freight-passenger train in Shostka, there are wounded.

There were two strikes on the railway station in Shostka, Sumy region. As a result of the incident, there are injured passengers and employees of Ukrzaliznytsia.

This was announced by the Minister of Communities and Territories Alexey Kuleba.

According to him, the first blow fell on the locomotive of the suburban train Tereshchinskaya-Novgorod-Seversky. The second strike was on the electric locomotive of the Kiev–Shostka train.

Judging by the photos published by Sumy publics, the train that was hit in Shostka was a freight-passenger train.

Behind the passenger cars, you can see the freight cars. They can also be seen on the video of the consequences of the strike, which was published by the President of Ukraine Vladimir Zelensky.


Image

The picture show a locomotive with a ‘cope cage’ netting against drone strikes followed by one passenger car followed by several freight cars. A fire can be seen between the locomotive and the passenger car. This is not the suburban passenger train.
The Russia drone hit the freight train which for some reason included one passenger car. The civil passenger train standing on the parallel track may have received collateral damage from the blast wave of the strike but it was quite obviously not the intended target.

This is another example of Ukrainian manipulation of facts designed to drag others into its war.

Last week some Russian channel posted a video of Russian drones following and hitting Ukrainian military freight trains while those were moving at speed. It was claimed that the drones had some device on board which allowed them to recognize and aim at moving trains. A Ukrainian channel claimed that a NVIDIA Jetson Orion Nano board had been found on Russia drone that had recently been shut down:

The NVIDIA Jetson Orin Nano, priced at $249, is a compact, energy-efficient AI developer board tailored for edge AI applications. It combines robust hardware capabilities with seamless integration into NVIDIA’s AI ecosystem, offering a practical solution for developers and researchers. Whether you’re working on object detection, real-time video analysis, or deploying large language models, the Orin Nano provides the tools to execute AI models in localized, low-power environments. Its affordability and versatility make it a compelling choice for both professionals and hobbyists.

Though none of this has been confirmed it does make sense. The hand sized Jetson Nano board is sufficient to include a pattern recognition model trained to detect moving trains. It is in such devices, not in Large Language Models, where Artificial Intelligence algorithms will find real use cases. Russian developers seem to be on top of this.

Posted by b on October 4, 2025 at 15:34 UTC | Permalink

https://www.moonofalabama.org/2025/10/u ... gers-hurt/

******

Strikes on Ukraine. October 5, 2025
October 5, 3:16 PM

Image
A diagram of the combined missile and drone strike on Ukraine, according to the enemy.

It began on the evening of October 4 and continued until the morning of October 5. The enemy claims to have deployed over 700 drones and over 50 missiles of various types.
Air defenses performed very poorly, particularly in Western Ukraine, where energy, military logistics, and defense industry facilities were hit.
Multiple incoming strikes were also recorded in Odesa. In total, the strike hit targets in 12 regions of Ukraine.

The enemy has already declared this strike one of the most powerful since 2022 and continues to complain of power outages in several regions. The situation is particularly dire in the Chernihiv region, where several substations were destroyed.

It's noteworthy that after the strike, the cocaine-fueled Fuhrer immediately cried out for an "air ceasefire," as he was not at all pleased with the results of the strike, and Ukraine is clearly losing in the scheme of exchanging drone strikes on infrastructure. Meanwhile, hysteria has resumed about a "NATO air shield," a "no-fly zone," and other such refrains that have been circling since 2022.

In fact, Russia doesn't need a ceasefire; it needs peace. On the stated terms. Therefore, such strikes must be repeated. And it's clear they will be repeated. The Russian military-industrial complex has reached a level where systematic attacks with several hundred drones, supplemented by missiles, no longer seem unsustainable. Production has increased exponentially over the past year. Which gives results like in the picture.

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/10110898.html

Do not stay near Ukrainian Armed Forces soldiers.
October 4, 5:03 PM

Image

The enemy claims that Russian troops are distributing such leaflets in the Nikopol area.

Back in 2022, it was stated that Ukrainian residents should stay away from Ukrainian Armed Forces military installations, military infrastructure, military-industrial complex facilities, and the like. Ignoring these warnings puts your life at risk by staying near legitimate military targets.

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/10109138.html

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"There is great chaos under heaven; the situation is excellent."

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Re: Footnotes from the Ukrainian "Crisis"; New High-Points in Cynicism Part V

Post by blindpig » Mon Oct 06, 2025 12:23 pm

Inevitable consequences of the absence of diplomacy
Posted by @nsanzo ⋅ 06/10/2025

Image

Buoyed by its victory rhetoric, sustained by a steady injection of funding from the European Union, bolstered by European NATO countries and the US commercial arms procurement system, and spurred on by Donald Trump's comment suggesting it was possible to restore the country's territorial integrity, Ukraine has enjoyed reporting successful attacks against key Russian infrastructure this past month, particularly targeting oil refineries. The goal, more media-driven than real, was to be able to mock the fact that the gas station masquerading as a country has run out of gas . Psychological warfare is always a part of war and increases in proportion to the media coverage of the conflict. Since August, Ukraine has attacked and impacted around fifteen Russian refineries, facilities essential to maintaining Russia's ability to supply energy to the country, not just its army. Taking advantage of its vast media presence and communications skills, using the percentage of refineries attacked and falsely assuming that impact means destruction, Ukraine has instilled in the collective consciousness the idea that it has destroyed around 40% of Russia's crude oil refining capacity.

In parallel with its attacks, Ukraine has long emphasized Russia's inability to respond to strikes. This was the case when Kiev attacked strategic aviation, and it has been the case at times when nervousness has caused prominent figures like Dmitry Medvedev to lose their temper and announce "doomsday" in the event of attacks that, when they have occurred, have not provoked massive Russian retaliation. Faced with an irrational Russia, incapable of maintaining logical tactics and always lacking the opportunity to learn from its mistakes, as portrayed in Ukrainian and Western propaganda, Moscow, which began the war underestimating Ukraine's capabilities and overestimating its own, with an insufficient contingent and a suicidal tactic, relatively quickly overcame its initial shortcomings and has settled into a war of attrition in which it believes it can sustain itself over the long term. On this basis, although retaliation for attacks that have caused significant damage has occurred, responding immediately and in an equivalent manner has not been the modus operandi chosen by the Russian General Staff. Contrary to US practices, which begin with massive bombing raids aimed at destroying critical infrastructure before launching ground operations, Russia took six months to attack Ukrainian electrical facilities. It was only in September 2022 that any possibility of negotiations had been broken and Ukraine began to talk about a ground counteroffensive with which it hoped to break the front and challenge its control of Crimea.

Attacks on electricity distribution infrastructure were later followed by bombings of electricity production facilities, something Ukraine was able to compensate for relatively thanks to the preparedness it had inherited from the USSR, whose legacy it repudiates, but thanks to which it enjoys a decentralized and diversified, bomb-proof electrical grid. Throughout this war, it has not been the "generators of hope" proclaimed by Ursula von der Leyen that have reduced the effects of the war on the civilian population, but rather the planned economy and the Soviet Union's fear of a possible invasion from the West. Three and a half years after the war, Ukraine's infrastructure is seriously undermined and, despite constant repair work, is now more vulnerable to Russian bombing, especially considering that, as the Financial Times admitted this week , improvements in Russian drones and missiles are occurring faster than the adaptation of Patriot and other air defense systems, whether its own or donated by the West. In need of some optimistic news, Ukraine yesterday clung to the hope of new weapons donated by Sweden: mobile anti-aircraft systems that will be designed to shoot down Shahed drones, originally designed by Iran but mass-produced, modernized, and improved in the Russian Federation.

Although the rearguard air war is neither new nor has it declined during the months in which diplomacy seemed possible, mutual bombing of critical infrastructure is a practically inevitable consequence at every moment of escalation. In this war, in which indirect participants provide one of the actors, Ukraine, with a strength far superior to that indicated by maps of territorial control or the industrial capacity of the countries, movements in the political rearguard, in this case in New York, are also a form of escalation. Although Russia reacted calmly, appealing to diplomacy and insisting on its belief that Donald Trump legitimately seeks peace between Russia and Ukraine, it is clear that, since that moment, airstrikes have increased again. If in August, when a new attempt was made to boost diplomacy, the bombings were reduced, the failure of the Alaska summit, the constant change of course adopted by Donald Trump, and finally the order to "take action" and the appeal to victory issued during the most media-focused week of the United Nations General Assembly have brought Russia back to reality. Without any opening to diplomacy, the only option on the table for kyiv and Moscow is military. Trump's words, the acceleration of US arms purchases by European countries, and the renewed demand for territorial integrity—reluctantly abandoned by Ukraine when the United States halted arms supplies, considering kyiv an obstacle to peace—foreshadowed the increase in attacks that has occurred and made it inevitable that Moscow would once again focus on its usual targets: energy and military production infrastructure, to which, in recent cases, foreign economic interests have been added. This is where media outlets like The Guardian claim that direct assistance from China has been provided, providing Russia with satellite information necessary for bombings targeting foreign economic interests. One of the infrastructures attacked in the latest bombings was Motor Sich, a company that would have remained in Chinese hands had it not been for the intervention of John Bolton, who during Trump's first term claimed that the sale would endanger US national security. Russia hardly needed China to hand over the coordinates.

Ukrainian triumphalism and the exaggeration of the success of its cross-border attacks—this is no longer 2022, as Andriy Ermak claimed—has led to the revival of the concept with which Andriy Zagorodniuk proposed defeating Russia: “strategic neutralization.” Easier to describe than to implement, this tactic of the former Ukrainian defense minister consists simply of destroying everything that is essential to Russia, gradually undermining its ability to continue fighting. Although Zagorodniuk has resumed his campaign to make this tactic the centerpiece of Western action against Russia, especially now that Donald Trump has hinted that he supports the use of Western missiles against Russian targets and is threatening to consider selling Tomahawk missiles to be sent to war—where they would perhaps be used against the Crimean bridge, but primarily against targets on Russian territory—Russia's territorial magnitude and its ability to respond to attacks make this a tactic capable of worsening the war without achieving strategic objectives.

As Volodymyr Zelensky's response yesterday demonstrates, the ability to absorb shocks is a factor to be taken seriously. Two consecutive bombings against key infrastructure were enough for the Ukrainian president to raise the bar on his demands on his allies. In the usual vein, attacks that are hailed as successful on Russian territory, insultingly described as "sanctions against the Russian Federation," and ridicule widespread about Russia's inability to protect its infrastructure, are quickly dismissed as terrorism when they are the response to Ukrainian bombings. "Ukraine is preparing a decision on joint production with its partners. In the future, production will be local, particularly that which will help protect Ukrainian skies. Ukraine is also preparing new sanctions against Russia," Zelensky said on Friday, announcing that attacks against Russia's rear will continue. The obvious consequence of this is the continuation of Russian attacks against Ukraine's rear, as occurred this weekend. The expected result is the accumulation of destruction on both sides of the front, which will inevitably continue as long as a realistic path to negotiation is not opened to unblock a war in which neither side will be able to fully impose its vision on the other.

That's precisely what Zelensky's message yesterday referred to. The Russian attacks of recent days have caused enough damage to prompt the Ukrainian president to revive the idea of ​​diplomacy, a line he tends to cling to when things aren't going well. Ukraine is aware that, in a diplomatic process, it will have the support and presence of its Western allies, which allowed it, for example, to ignore the Minsk agreements for seven years while France and Germany protected it in formats like the Normandy agreement. Denouncing the presence of 50 missiles and 500 drones—Zelensky never specifies how many of them were decoys—the Ukrainian president added that “the Russians have once again attacked our infrastructure, everything that ensures the normal life of our people. We need stronger protection and faster implementation of all defense agreements, especially regarding air defense, so that this aerial terror becomes senseless. A unilateral ceasefire in the skies is possible, and that is precisely what could pave the way for real diplomacy. The United States and Europe must act to stop Putin.” Zelensky appears to want to return to his March initiative, demanding a ceasefire from Russia in the area where the parties are most unbalanced. The day before, Zelensky criticized Russia, claiming that “Russia literally ignores or rejects any opportunity to end the war and ensure security.”

Considering that Russia has not been offered any realistic negotiation format nor has a negotiation roadmap been presented, these routinely repeated Ukrainian and European complaints are nothing more than empty words used to present themselves as the party seeking peace. Something similar can be said of yesterday's comment by the Ukrainian president, who, after demanding more weapons from his partners and being surprised by perfectly predictable attacks, also requested that they be the ones to reach a ceasefire agreement. Everything indicates that the meaning of the word "unilateral" is, in fact, "unconditional," that is, what the European countries demanded of Russia on May 9. Yesterday, Ukraine's response to Russian bombing was to attack a refinery in Crimea and electrical infrastructure in Belgorod with drones, leaving 40,000 people without power—actions that will undoubtedly provoke similar actions against the territory controlled by kyiv. The wheel of war never stops.

The negotiation Zelensky has always desired has been an internal conversation among allies, a consensus to convey to Russia in the same way Trump ordered Hamas to accept an agreement reached between the United States and Israel. Faith in its allies and their ability to force Russia to accept the terms decided by Washington, London, Paris, Berlin, and Kyiv is Ukraine's only response to this war. Diplomacy in which the parties seriously negotiate the terms of the war and their future relations remains, despite yesterday's appeal, out of the question.

https://slavyangrad.es/2025/10/06/conse ... iplomacia/

The Ukrainian showcase
Posted by @nsanzo ⋅ 04/10/2025

Image

“Russia will not stop until it is forced to. It represents a threat not only to Ukraine, but to all of us,” declared Mette Frederiksen this week, the Danish prime minister, who has in the past stood out for her high military contribution to Ukraine in terms of GDP and for her assertion that “peace can be more dangerous than war,” a phrase that went completely unnoticed in the European climate of war. This position is now even more widely accepted since Donald Trump gave the order to “take action,” confirmed that European countries would be able to commercially acquire the weapons necessary to continue the war, and reopened the door to the possibility of a Ukrainian victory, an unlikely scenario even for convinced European leaders. "Russia is not winning, and Ukraine is not losing, this war. The situation is completely different," Macron stated. He, in coordination with European leaders, has once again appealed to the idea that Russia expected to capture kyiv in three days, an idea originating with US General Mike Milley and used to exaggerate the disaster that the approach to kyiv actually was and to attribute to the Kremlin objectives that have existed only in the minds of European and North American propagandists.

However, there is something important in Macron's words, as he insists that Russia is not winning the war, but does not dare to claim that Ukraine is winning. For years, the war has been described as being blocked, something currently denied by the former commander-in-chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, Valery Zaluzhny, who presents a much more pessimistic picture of the war than that perceived by political authorities. Russia continues to advance, albeit very slowly, in such a way that there will not be a broad breakthrough or large-scale offensives, greatly hampered by the proliferation of attack and surveillance drones, which make the movement of armored convoys essential for such operations practically impossible. It is clear that Russia is not winning the war, nor is it in a position to do so, if victory is understood as the capture of all or a large part of the territories and the ability to impose the terms of a peace treaty. Despite Trump's words or the plans of the West, Ukraine is not in a position to do so either. Just because Moscow isn't winning the war doesn't mean kyiv is.

As the West's proxy in a war that is increasingly perceived as its own, Ukraine has a card that Russia lacks: the strength provided by its allies, both in terms of military assistance and economic lifelines to sustain the state, and in the form of diplomatic support to achieve, if negotiations ever arise, more favorable conditions than those currently dictated by the front. In this sense, the statements heard this week from smiling European leaders contrast with what has been published in the Western media, which have reported on the military difficulties Ukraine is facing. As the Financial Times described this week , despite the triumphalism with which Ukraine's ability to defeat Russian drone and missile attacks is usually spoken of, the interception rate is declining, and Russia is improving its missiles faster than the West, nor Ukraine, its interceptors.

Oblivious to the defeats and difficulties, much of the media prefers to focus on the successes and what they can achieve thanks to the war. “The Biden administration allocated $1.5 billion in additional aid for Ukraine’s drone and missile programs, including the supply of key components not produced domestically. Then-President Joe Biden briefed Zelensky on the scope of the initiative at a meeting in Washington in September 2024. ‘We believed it would be strategically important for Ukraine to have a sustainable and massive supply of effective, domestically produced drones,’ said David Shimer, who served as director for Ukraine policy at the National Security Council during the Biden administration. ‘Now we have the opportunity to learn from Ukraine’s innovations ourselves,’” The Wall Street Journal wrote this week, presenting the war as a testing ground, a profit-making resource, and an opportunity to acquire innovative equipment. So much so that the outlet explains that Ukraine and the United States are negotiating a deal under which “Ukraine would leverage its extensive experience in drone production and use to combat the Russian military. A team of Ukrainians, led by the country's Deputy Defense Minister, Sergiy Boyev, began a multi-day series of talks with Pentagon and State Department officials in Washington on Tuesday.”

For weeks, Volodymyr Zelensky has been referring to the negotiation of a $90 billion deal. As he proclaimed in his speech at the United Nations General Assembly, Ukraine has opened its military production to export, a way of highlighting its successes and concealing the fact that the initiative is primarily driven by the need to obtain its own financing that does not depend on the conditions set by its partners and suppliers. Recently, Ukraine has complained that funding to cover the population's basic expenses cannot be used for military expenditures.

In a context of demands for increased arms flow, announcing the start of exports also seeks to offer an image of military strength to accompany the victory rhetoric that Ukraine has been using since 2022, regardless of the situation on the front lines and its military capabilities, to present itself as an essential partner with whom to barter. Because, ultimately, with these sales and transfers of a technology that is simple, but that Ukraine is one of only two countries in the world to have developed and tested under high-intensity combat conditions—the other, obviously, being Russia, whose program is similar, and judging by the comments of Ukrainian units on the front lines, is even more developed—Kyiv is seeking to be in a better negotiating position to obtain the large-caliber weapons it cannot produce. Unlike drone assembly workshops, which are easier to camouflage, heavy industry is, in addition to being extremely expensive, difficult to hide from Russian missiles. “The potential deal also has political significance as Kyiv seeks to cement its ties with Trump, whose support for Ukraine has at times been erratic. Trump has grown increasingly frustrated with Russian President Vladimir Putin’s decision to escalate attacks on Ukraine and reject White House calls to negotiate a peace deal, which has also opened the door to greater U.S.-Ukraine cooperation. The drone agreement comes as part of a package that would include a separate “megadeal” in which Ukraine hopes to buy tens of billions of dollars’ worth of arms from the U.S., Zelensky said Saturday. Ukraine hopes the arms deal will include long-range missiles to expand its strike power against Russia,” The Wall Street Journal adds . As usual, Western funding and weapons are the solution to every problem, especially those that try to hide behind their backs.

Just this week, a video report from the same outlet boasted that the Flamingo missiles, designed and developed by the Ukrainian military industry, have a range of 1,800 kilometers and are capable of carrying a one-ton warhead. A few months ago, when this new miracle weapon was being presented with great fanfare in the Ukrainian and Western media, military analyst Patricia Marins broke away from triumphant Western expectations, writing that "it's one thing to fly drones over Russian territory, which are light and difficult to identify, and quite another to fly something 8 to 12 meters long and much more visible on radar." The images in the Associated Press article , he explained, showed “a fuselage production line, where someone mentioned that in one of the photos there was a number indicating 480 missiles, which makes no sense in this industry. If production reaches 10 missiles per month, that would be a significant figure at this early stage, unless these missiles already come prefabricated from other countries, only to be assembled in Ukraine.”

“We didn't want to make this public, but it seems the time is right. Flamingo is a long-range cruise missile that can carry a 1,150-kilogram warhead and fly as far as Russia, at a distance of 3,000 kilometers,” argued Iryna Terej, the company's CEO. “Things don't add up,” Marins opined at the time, doubting both the missile's range and capability. “Taking into account the 3,000 kilometers mentioned by the CEO and including the weight of the fuel, we're talking approximately 2,700 kg of fuel alone, which puts the missile at around 5-5.5 tons and at least 10 meters long, flying at approximately 0.6-0.8 Mach. There is nothing on the market, other than anti-ship missiles, that fits this description, and that's precisely because such a missile would be ineffective. It would make it expensive, large, slow, and easy to intercept,” he wrote, adding that if there was nothing hidden—that the prototype was actually a Western missile produced in Ukraine under a new designation to avoid violating treaties—it could simply be “a well-crafted bluff by Ukrainian intelligence.” Marins also cast doubt on Ukraine's claimed capacity to produce 50 missiles per month, as Western media repeated without nuance.

Their suspicions have now been confirmed. In its report, The Wall Street Journal , which continues to extol the missile's capabilities, admits that Ukraine lacks the funding to supply its missile program. Considering that Ukraine lacks the funds to cover the most basic needs of its most vulnerable population, this admission should come as no surprise.

“The entire Russian industry, after successive investments over several months, is currently capable of overhauling about 80 turbofan engines per month. How could a Ukrainian startup hope to overhaul more than 50 engines per year? Moreover, for a newly founded company, 20 units is an extremely high figure. And Motor Sich has downsized. Some units will be produced to justify the money invested, but Ukraine's main strength will remain the Neptune, whose production is also limited,” Marins said this week. In reality, The Wall Street Journal 's admission , which states for the first time the obvious: that Ukraine cannot produce 50 missiles per month as promised, is not intended to justify the investment made, but rather to obtain sufficient financial support to do so.

Everything in war is a showcase. To sell missiles, drones, a country in which to establish war material factories, or even speeches about victories as likely as achieving impossible production targets.

https://slavyangrad.es/2025/10/04/el-es ... ucraniano/

Google Translator

*****

From Cassad's telegram account:

Colonelcassad
The Englishwoman is making a mess again.

The Press Bureau of the Foreign Intelligence Service of the Russian Federation reports that, according to information received by the SVR, London is furious that long-standing British efforts to achieve a "strategic defeat" of Russia and turn it into a pariah state are failing. Starmer's cabinet and his intelligence agencies are preparing to respond to Russian successes in the Ukrainian theater of military operations with yet another vile provocation.

According to the British plan, a group of traitorous Russians fighting on the side of the Ukrainian Armed Forces is to carry out an attack on a Ukrainian Navy ship or a foreign civilian vessel in a European port. Members of the group have already arrived in the UK for sabotage training.

After the terrorists are "discovered," the plan is to claim they were acting on "Moscow's instructions." London is counting on the fact that the Russophobic European political elite will happily swallow the fake story about "malicious Kremlin agents" to justify the need to further increase military aid to Ukraine and the militarization of "united Europe" to combat "Russian aggression."

Notably, the Ukrainian Armed Forces are planned to be equipped with Chinese-made underwater equipment. The equipment seized during the "investigation" is intended to be presented as "iron proof" of China's support for Russia's so-called armed aggression against Ukraine.

Surprisingly, in Britain, once—and rightly—called "Perfidious Albion," they believe such a primitive charade will deceive so many experienced politicians. Apparently, London's rapid descent into the margins of world history has also affected the strategic thinking of British intelligence agencies and those in power. The tools remain the same: pitting the world's largest players against each other. However, in today's geopolitical conditions, it no longer works.

Press Bureau of the Russian Foreign Intelligence Service,
October 6, 2025.

This is in addition to the ongoing information and propaganda campaign about alleged Russian drone launches in Europe.
The worse the Ukrainian Armed Forces' situation on the front lines and the more painful the Russian Armed Forces' strikes on the enemy's rear, the higher the likelihood of such provocations, the main purpose of which is to try to disrupt established trends on the front lines and, if possible, draw NATO countries into a direct war with Russia.

***

Colonelcassad
0:14
0:11
0:08
Night Operations in Kharkiv.
Russian attack drones and Iskander missiles attacked enemy targets in Kharkiv and the surrounding region.

According to monitoring channels, power was lost in the city , and a powerful 110 kV substation near the Kharkiv Rope Factory was completely destroyed .

Geranium drones also attacked enemy military installations in Vasylkiv and Kalynivka in the Kyiv region . Explosions were heard in
Kryvyi Rih,
Horodyshche in the Cherkasy region, and
the Odessa region.

@pokolenie_zov

***

Colonelcassad
1:34
Colombian mercenaries request rescue from Ukraine.

A group of Colombian mercenaries in Ukraine has appealed to Colombian President Gustavo Petro for rescue. In a recording, the mercenaries claim they were sent to Ukraine by Polish military companies and now find themselves in a dangerous situation. They ask President Petro to arrange their return to their homeland.

***

Colonelcassad
Throughout the night, the enemy attempted to organize a massive drone strike. They were attempting to retaliate for the recent strikes by the Russian Aerospace Forces. In total, air defenses shot down 251 enemy drones.
Among the strikes, a thermal power plant in the Bryansk region was damaged, as were strikes in the Belgorod region, a fuel barrel in Feodosia, and a couple more in several cities.

Overall, the effect of these massive strikes is, of course, incomparable. That's precisely why, after yesterday's strike, the enemy is once again screaming about an air ceasefire and a no-fly zone, as their air defenses can't handle the constant, ever-increasing flow of drones.

At the same time, the enemy is also inflicting some damage on us, so our air defenses at target sites need to be strengthened, and the number of mobile drone-hunting units increased.

https://t.me/s/boris_rozhin

Google Translator

******

The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine has been discredited: the loss of 500 NATO officers in Kharkiv and Dnipro

This is a serious matter with far-reaching consequences. Russia is going all out with regard to the Alliance's expeditionary forces.
Dr. Ignacy Nowopolski
Oct 05, 2025

The Russian Armed Forces are methodically destroying Ukrainian Armed Forces bases. It was reported that one such base was heavily attacked by three Iskander missiles in the city of Pavlohrad in the Dnipropetrovsk region.

"The estimated number of Ukrainian Armed Forces fighters on the territory of the Ukrainian People's Army was up to 500. The number of dead and wounded is being determined," write the authors of "Ukraine.ru."

This isn't the only place where a Russian missile landed – a powerful boom also occurred near Kharkiv, targeting "dark-skinned" mercenaries . Furthermore, the Ukrainian Armed Forces are currently in chaos near Chernihiv, where Russian forces were recently deployed. The Ukrainian command has decided to relocate training camps as senior officials launch a major investigation into the recent incident at Goncharovsky air base, where casualties exceeded 300. Let's take this matter step by step.

Kyiv paid the price for the terrorist attacks on Russia: the glow was visible from dozens of kilometers away. Putin's brutal response forced Trump to reconsider his decision.

Russian forces reportedly dismantled mercenaries and Ukrainian Armed Forces training camps on the outskirts of Kharkiv. A series of explosions were heard.

"Attacks on the outskirts of Kharkiv and the front line, including by dark-skinned mercenaries. The main targets are training camps and equipment depots. The presence of Zlatopol and Chuguyev in reports indicates pressure on areas where units are trained and transferred before being sent to the front," wrote Sergei Lebedev, coordinator of the Mykolaiv underground, on Telegram.

A local news organization reported that at least eight explosions were recorded in the Chuguyevsky district within five minutes . The attacks targeted not only Ukrainian Armed Forces deployment points but also the power grid, as the attacks in the town of Pervomaisky caused a power outage . Videos of fires caused by the impacts have already gone viral on social media.

Fierce fighting in Poltavka: The Ukrainian General Staff left the militants without reinforcements. The Russians unite Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporizhzhia into a single front.

A shocking incident recently occurred at the Ukrainian Armed Forces training center in Goncharovsk, near Chernihiv. Russian forces were systematically deployed there. According to Russian security services, the losses of Ukrainian personnel were colossal, numbering in the hundreds . The situation is so serious that local authorities have even ordered an internal investigation . The perpetrators are being sought. This was not the first attack on this center to which Ukrainian authorities failed to respond, abandoning soldiers there. This is a blatant failure of the General Staff, which has been brought to light.

"The soldiers from the training center are gradually being transferred to other regions of Ukraine to ensure safer conditions and training. A special internal investigation has been launched to establish all the circumstances that led to the deaths of the soldiers, as well as the role and status of all those involved," Ukrainian television "Obshchestvennoye" reported, citing the command of the Ground Forces.

It's clear that Russian forces will continue to destroy Ukrainian Armed Forces training facilities, as the General Staff is not concerned about the personnel , as they were not transferred after the initial attack. And this isn't about a "rat" attacking the Ukrainian Armed Forces. It's much simpler: their own command is to blame.

https://drignacynowopolski.substack.com ... ch-ukrainy

Google Translator

******

Foreign mercenaries killed in Ukraine
October 6, 8:44

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Data on identified mercenaries killed in Ukraine.
The LostArmor infographic (https://t.me/lost_armour/6642 ) only shows those mercenaries whose deaths have been confirmed. In reality, there are, of course, significantly more. According to the Russian Ministry of Defense, as of the summer of 2025, more than 5,900 mercenaries from various countries were killed in the SVO zone.

A good resource for tracking the personal data of living and killed foreign mercenaries fighting for the Ukrainian Armed Forces is here : https://t.me/TrackAMerc

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/10111901.html

Google Translator

******

Brief Frontline Report – October 5th, 2025

Report by Marat Khairullin and Mikhail Popov.
Zinderneuf
Oct 05, 2025

Alternating activity from different directions by the Russian Armed Forces is shaking and destroying the defense of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in a difficult area of the theater of military operations near the city of Seversk.

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After the liberation of the city of Lysychansk on July 3, 2022 (to the east of Seversk, just right if where the map cuts off), the movement of the Russian Armed Forces westward was hindered by a fortified area of the Ukrainian Armed Forces built around the Seversk-Soledar-Bakhmut (Artemovsk)-Dzerzhinsk (Toretsk) agglomeration. This area covered the main base area of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in Slavyansk-Kramatorsk-Konstantinovka. It was created on terrain favorable for defense, relying on the Bakhmutka River (this river runs through Bakhmut/Artemovsk to Seversk), along a line of industrial areas with dense residential development of settlements and cities. The left flank of this area rested on the Seversky Donets River and the Serebryansky forestry located to the north, while the right flank was based on the large mining city of Dzerzhinsk (Toretsk) and its suburbs located in highly rugged terrain. A well-developed road network, both in a bypass direction and radially connecting the area with the deeper territory of Ukraine, provided the Ukrainian Armed Forces grouping with advantages in both defense and offensive actions.

Currently, only the city of Seversk remains from this fortified area of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, which did not prevent our army from destroying the positions of this area to the south. The city of Seversk, all this time while the southern areas were being cleared of Nazis, was practically blockaded, and the Ukrainian Armed Forces grouping entrenched there was tied down by local battles.

As of right now, actions in neighboring areas, as well as strategic operations disrupting the economy and military rear of Ukraine, have prepared conditions for the elimination of the main 'thorn' in the Donetsk People's Republic — the Slavyansk-Kramatorsk defense node of the Ukrainian Armed Forces.

Now, it is Seversk's turn. Areas north of the city have been cleared, the Serebryansky forestry and strongholds on the right bank of the Seversky Donets River have been liberated. Bridgeheads are being prepared to encircle the city of Severesk and adjacent areas at various radii. By the method of 'stretching into splits,' assault groups of the Russian Armed Forces force the defending Ukrainian Armed Forces grouping to constantly maneuver along the front line, thus spreading their units further apart.

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Message from the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation: "Units of the 'South' Group of forces, as a result of decisive actions, liberated the settlement of Kuzminovka in the Donetsk People's Republic." Marked by a Russian flag on the map.

Today, units of the "South" Group expanded the bridgehead on the left bank of the Bakhmutka River, liberated the settlement of Kuzminovka (48°47′47″N 38°04′01″E, about 30 inhabitants), and outflanked the Ukrainian Armed Forces units defending in the settlement of Zvanovka, which together with the settlement of Svyato-Pokrovskoe forms a defense node covering Seversk from the south. Likely, the beginning of Russian Armed Forces activity is directed along the Vyemka-Zvanovka line.

Image

Considering the 'split' method, it is quite likely that soon the pendulum will swing toward the settlement of Dronovka, which is the key to the watershed of the Bakhmutka and Sukhaya rivers, allowing our units to get into the rear of the Seversk defense area of the Ukrainian Armed Forces.

https://maratkhairullin.substack.com/p/ ... ctober-5th
"There is great chaos under heaven; the situation is excellent."

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Re: Footnotes from the Ukrainian "Crisis"; New High-Points in Cynicism Part V

Post by blindpig » Tue Oct 07, 2025 11:46 am

The shadow of Minsk
Posted by @nsanzo ⋅ 07/10/2025

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Having settled on the military path as the only way to resolve the war in Ukraine, its sole foreign policy project, and on rearmament as a guarantee of the continental rupture it hopes to maintain beyond a possible ceasefire, the European Union cannot help but repudiate anyone who expresses a dissenting opinion. The anger is especially marked when the person who has strayed from the path comes from within its own ranks. Perhaps no person in Europe is more hated for these reasons than former Chancellor Angela Merkel, the virtually undisputed leader of the European project for two decades, but now condemned for her actions, her statements, and her opinions. Retired from politics after her long tenure in the German government, Merkel has returned to the media scene only in rare and very specific moments, almost always, as is the case now, linked to the promotion of her memoirs.

The current episode began with a tweet from Viktor Orbán, perhaps the most hated head of government by the European liberal establishment , who is labeled as pro-Russian and is being demanded to cease his purchases of Russian oil and stop threatening to block Ukraine's access to the EU, NATO, or the imposition of sanctions on Russia. "Once chancellor, always chancellor for us. Welcome to Hungary, Angela Merkel!" the Hungarian president wrote on Wednesday, October 1, in a post published on social media accompanied by an image of Merkel's reception and large German and Hungarian flags adorning the building. The initial criticism focused on pointing out the disloyalty that, judging by European liberal think-tankers , politicians, and influencers , represented by rewarding a leader opposed to the war consensus with a photo alongside someone of Angela Merkel's political stature.

It wasn't until the weekend, after a public media outlet reported on the former chancellor's interview with a Hungarian outlet, Partizan , that the downpour of destructive criticism truly began. By yesterday morning, it had become a campaign of harassment and demolition against the person who, not so long ago, led the European political project they now claim to defend. Although they have been few and far between, the statements Merkel has made to the media since her retirement, and especially since the Russian invasion of Ukraine, reveal the detachment characteristic of someone who is aware that little remains of her European project, transformed, perhaps permanently, by the continental reaction to the current war. As could be seen yesterday, the perception of an unbridgeable gap between these two ideas of what the European Union should be is mutual and increasingly entails more contempt and a desire for humiliation.

“A good reminder that it was Merkel who allowed this war to happen due to her weak response in preventing Ukraine from joining NATO and the EU. Her “solution” of leaving Ukraine in a political and defense gray zone led to genocide in the heart of Europe. But the worst part is that there are still people who want to repeat this mistake,” wrote journalist Paul Shapoval in one of the many examples from the sector that believes the problem is not the war, but Europe's actions prior to it, which were insufficiently punitive toward Russia despite the fact that the decade of sanctions had already begun in 2014 and the political ties that bound the continent had gradually disappeared. The fact that Germany stood firm in the face of US pressure and even went ahead with the Nord Stream 2 project, of which it was a co-owner and which was being built on Western terms, not Gazprom's, is something the European establishment cannot forgive Angela Merkel for. “The Baltic countries have been the most vocal about Russia's intentions and were right to warn the rest of the Alliance. Merkel emboldened Russia and weakened the Alliance's cohesion with her insistence on Nord-Stream 2 and the acceleration of Germany's disastrous nuclear dismantlement,” added Rebeccah Heinrichs, a think tanker at the Hudson Institute, whose goal is to promote “American leadership for a secure, free, and prosperous world”—that is, US interests, which, in the case of energy, clash with the competition that Russia has represented until now in the most lucrative market, Europe. “Absolutely shameful and embarrassing. Mrs. Merkel would rather blame those who were right than admit she was wrong,” declared warmonger Jessica Berlin, so attached to the war that the story of the attempt to stop it—at that time, the war in Donbas, without which the 2022 war cannot be understood—is an insult.

The source of European liberal anger was a post from a tabloid, The Daily Mail, which wrote: “Ex-German chancellor, 71, blames Poland and Baltic states for Putin's war in Ukraine.” Adding to the usual style of manipulation of this type of media, the need to use even more sensationalism to attract attention on social media, the tweet even exaggerated the headline it linked to. “Angela Merkel says Poland and the Baltic states are responsible for Putin's war in Ukraine,” the outlet headlined, itself distorting the former German chancellor's words. “I've fixed it for you, Frau Merkel,” mocked Jessica Berlin, adding an image of The Daily Mail headline with the words “Poland and Baltic states” crossed out and “Russia” written above it. “Former German Chancellor Angela Merkel has blamed Poland and the Baltic states for Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine. Merkel, who led the country from 2005 to 2021, made this explosive claim in an interview with Hungarian outlet Partizan. She said she blamed Poland and the Baltic states for the breakdown in diplomatic relations between Russia and the EU, which she claimed led to the invasion just months later. According to her version of the story, Poland’s refusal to support the Minsk Agreements, a pair of key international agreements between Russia and the EU, encouraged Putin to invade Ukraine in 2022,” the text states.

Without needing to read beyond the headline of the manipulative article, well-known pro-Ukrainian accounts adhered to the ad hominem , insisting on the humiliation without needing to resort to arguments. “First, she visits Viktor Orbán in Hungary to promote his autobiography. Then, she blames Poland and the Baltic countries for the war in Ukraine. I know it's a tough competition with people like Gerhard Schröder, but is Angela Merkel the worst chancellor in German history?” wrote, for example, Pekka Kalliomieni, a well-known propagandist for the Ukrainian cause. “Schröder carried out a major labor market reform, while Merkel failed to undertake any economic reforms during her far too long 16 years in power,” countered the radical Anders Åslund, placing Merkel in an even worse position than the much-maligned Schröder, whose unforgivable sins include his refusal to renounce Vladimir Putin's friendship or his position on the board of Gazprom. “She kept Orbán in the EPP. She created the AfD through her disastrous immigration policy in 2015. She promoted Nord Stream 2. What a disaster!” Åslund continued his diatribe against Merkel. “She is an embarrassment to herself, to Germany, and to the CDU,” he declared. “This is simply ridiculous. Merkel should return to her trademark: ‘Merkeling,’ which means ‘doing nothing, making no decisions, making no statements,’” declared the self-proclaimed “geopolitical strategist” Velina Tchakarova, in the most humiliating tone possible. She then addressed “the new Russia experts (after 2022),” offering them “a gentle reminder that before the launch of Russia’s first invasion of Ukraine in 2014, the EU and most EU members, including Germany, had largely followed the so-called ‘Russia First’ policy in their relations with Eastern Europe.” Any resemblance to reality is purely coincidental.

"This is a new and regrettably very low-level viewpoint from Angela Merkel: blaming the Baltic countries and Poland for unleashing the Russian imperial war. Sadly, this casts a shadow over her entire tenure as German chancellor. I'm not even going to talk about Nord Stream," reflected, personally offended, Marko Mihkelson, chairman of the Foreign Affairs Committee of the Estonian Parliament, one of the countries directly affected. The main problem with these kinds of statements is not only that they are based on the bellicose reaffirmation of those who have always preferred war to a situation of peace—understood as the absence of conflict—with Russia, but that they are based on accusations that Angela Merkel has not made. In the interview with a Hungarian media outlet, Merkel states that “in June 2021, I felt that the Minsk Protocol (of 2014) was no longer taken seriously by Putin. That's why I wanted a new format, so that the European Union (EU) could speak directly to Putin,” adding, “That's why I wanted a new format, so that the European Union (EU) could speak directly to Putin.” “My opinion was that we had to work towards a common policy at the time. In any case, it didn't happen. Then I left office (in December 2021), and then Putin's aggression began,” Merkel concludes, summarizing the events rather than directing blame at those countries. The fact that Merkel adds another factor, the pandemic, to explain how it got to February 2022, reinforces this view. “It's clear that the coronavirus changed world politics. Because we could no longer meet. Putin didn't attend the G20 summit in 2021 because he was afraid of the pandemic. If you can't meet, if you can't resolve differences face to face, then you can't find new compromises either,” he explained. The fact that conflicts are more difficult to resolve without direct dialogue is a fact that is difficult to dispute. Despite the anger of some European sectors, it is also true that the lack of willingness to engage in dialogue on the part of European countries is a factor that brought the situation to a head and never favored a diplomatic resolution to the Ukrainian conflict.

Clinging to the version of the Minsk agreements presented in recent years by media outlets that did not follow the day-to-day events of that process, some commentators have been offended by the "manipulation" they see in the words of Merkel, possibly the only European leader who was willing to believe in those agreements. “This is the most blatant distortion of history this woman has ever committed. Either she’s too stupid to understand that the Kremlin never intended for the Minsk Agreements to work—they were a way to pressure Kyiv into submission to Moscow—or she’s a bald-faced liar. I’m betting on the latter. Merkel is one of the main architects of the war. Her naive idea of ​​selling Ukraine to get cheap Russian gas in peacetime not only failed, but created the conditions that made war inevitable. She has blood on her hands and will be remembered for her duplicity,” argued Branislav Slantchev, a political science professor at the University of San Diego, who seems to have forgotten Ukraine’s repeated and proud admissions about its lack of intention to implement the Minsk Agreements. Zelensky himself has explained that it was in December 2019, at the Normandy Format summit of heads of state or government, that he informed Merkel and Macron that the Minsk agreements were unworkable. If there's one thing the former chancellor can be held responsible for, it's not benefiting Russia, but rather having consistently avoided pressuring Kyiv—despite Germany having the tools to do so—to fulfill its part of the only peace agreement ever signed in this conflict.

It took Merkel, in her own words, a year and a half to understand that the roadmap she had personally negotiated for Ukraine in February 2015 during a marathon evening in the Belarusian capital would not resolve the conflict, which had become entrenched from the moment one of the parties tried to rewrite the terms from the first day after the signing. Although the treaty returned the territories of Donbass to Ukraine in exchange for being granted a series of minimum political, cultural, and economic rights—an autonomy far inferior to that enjoyed by regions like the Basque Country in Europe and, of course, those enjoyed by regions generally supported by the European establishment , such as Iraqi Kurdistan—such concessions were unacceptable for a country that preferred to keep the war going rather than guarantee rights for a portion of its population. Kiev not only refused to implement the agreements as signed, but even refused to implement the so-called Steinmeier Formula, named after Angela Merkel's former prime minister and later president of Germany. The proposal, offering Donbass a transitional special status to allow local elections, after which Ukraine would regain the territory and control of the border, was also an excessive concession to Ukraine. Merkel's response was not to pressure Ukraine, but to bide time until she tried to scrap the Trilateral Contact Group and the Normandy Format in favor of another mechanism, already impossible due to the loss of power that their imminent withdrawal would imply and, above all, due to the complete lack of interest of European countries in resolving the Ukrainian conflict through diplomatic means and the compromise required by a situation caused by kyiv's attempt to resolve a political problem militarily and its failure to subjugate Donbass to its will.

The offended reaction of various European sectors to Merkel's words cannot hide the fact that what the former German chancellor is now describing is the same thing she explained in the fall of 2022, when she was already being singled out for her policy toward Russia, which was described as excessively pro-Kremlin. “The Minsk agreements had been eroded. In the summer of 2021, after President Biden's meeting with Putin, Emmanuel Macron and I wanted to create a productive negotiating format in the EU Council. Some opposed the idea, and I no longer had the power to pursue it, because everyone knew I would be leaving that fall. I asked other Council members: 'Why aren't you saying anything? Say something.' One replied: 'It's too big for me.' The other simply shrugged and said it was a matter for the major countries. If I had run for re-election in September, I would have gone ahead.” Her current statements only reveal which countries were most opposed to dialogue.

At the end of her term, the once all-powerful Angela Merkel was left alone. There was no one else in the European political spotlight who was committed to diplomacy to resolve a conflict that, at the time, was limited to a trench war contained within a portion of Ukraine. Even then, confrontation with Russia was more important than resolving the Ukrainian conflict. Even if this meant risking a wider war, something that is repeated today, when any desire for intercontinental dialogue is presented as a betrayal and peace is considered more dangerous than war.

https://slavyangrad.es/2025/10/07/la-sombra-de-minsk/

Google Translator

*****

Brief Frontline Report – October 6th, 2025

Report by Marat Khairullin and Mikhail Popov.
Zinderneuf
Oct 06, 2025

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ЛБС 20.6.2025=June 20th, 2025. Участки Активности=Area of Activity.

Message from the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation: "As a result of decisive actions by servicemen of the 7th and 79th motorized rifle regiments of the 'North' Group of forces, the settlement of Otradnoe in the Kharkov region has been liberated."

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By stretching the reserves of the Armed Forces of Ukraine with alternating and multidirectional activity across the entire line of combat contact, the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation intensified the eastern section of the Kharkov direction. They liberated the settlement of Otradnoe (50°03′43″N 37°43′39″E, about 190 residents), from which the exit from three ravines (labeled as "beams" on the map) is controlled: Tretyakov Yar, Krutaya, and Popov Yar, which lead to the settlements of Grigorovka (Hryhorovka) and Kolodeznoe, located on the bank of the Verkhnyaya Dvurechnaya (Upper Dvurechna) River.

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Four kilometers southwest of Otradnoe is the Khatnoe (Hatnoe)-Mytrofanovka bypass, to which radial routes from Khatnoe and Grigorovka (Hryhorovka) connect these settlements, turned by the enemy into strongpoints, with the urban-type settlement of Velykyi Buruluk. Velykyi Buruluk is the logistics and supply center for the entire eastern defense node of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the Kharkov region.

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The defense area of the Armed Forces of Ukraine at Grigorovka-Kolodeznoe-Mytrofanovka covers the eastern direction to Velykyi Buruluk. Having liberated Otradnoe, the Russian Armed Forces are preparing a bridgehead to reach the bypass, destroy the transport network of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in this area, and eliminate the Grigorovka (Hryhorovka)-Kolodeznoe-Mytrofanovka area. Conditions are being formed to cut off the group of the Armed Forces of Ukraine defending the eastern section of the Kharkov region.

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https://maratkhairullin.substack.com/p/ ... ctober-6th

******

Drone-gate maidan?

Fake Flamingo, real graft. Sorosites strike back. Corruption and wunderwaffen.
Events in Ukraine
Oct 05, 2025

The cold war between Zelensky and the liberal ‘Sorosites’ continues.

Now, the journalists sponsored by the US (formerly) and (now) the EU are trying to spark a political explosion - accusing Zelensky’s coterie of earning super-profits from western aid for Ukrainian superweapons that either don’t exist, don’t work properly, or are vastly over-valued.

For context: Back in late July, Zelensky tried to liquidate the independence of the western-created anti-corruption organs, the latest move in a long-running battle. After the EU forced him to stand down, Zelensky’s security services have continued their battle against the anti-corruption organs, as I wrote here.

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And now, the Sorosites have struck back.

It all revolves around Zelensky’s wunderwaffen of the year - the so-called Flamingo cruise missile. Western-funded Ukrainian journalists have been claiming that the Flamingo is a farce, a non-existent rocket whose only purpose is to channel western military aid towards the president’s office.

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In response, Zelensky’s administration has been sending Security Service (SBU) agents to the homes of journalists.

But it isn’t just the Sorosites that are angry. Drone experts fighting in the war that have sounded the alarm on the Flamingo farce are apparently being sent to the trenches as infantry troops.

The main drone expert targeted, Yury Kasyanov, has been working with drones at the frontlines since 2014. His credentials, many would claim, are impeccable. He even draws attention to his 100,000 facebook followers to the fact that it was his drone unit whose drone reached the Red Square back in May 2023. (Video at link.)

Kasyanov now claims that the government is trying to kill him and his men for speaking out. Today, he called on patriotic citizens to gather in front of the presidential administration.

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‘Mr President! Stop the destruction of my unit, which bombs Moscow.’

Interestingly, this immensely popular (20 thousand likes) facebook post calling for protests featured a photo of him with a cardboard poster - the same strategy used in the July anti-Zelensky protests.

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And the same forces that fought Zelensky then are supporting Kasyanov now - media that used to be funded by USAID, and which is currently owned by Soros’s business partner, Czech financier Tomas Fiala.

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I covered Fiala and his tensions with the Ukrainian government here

The Sorosites seem to have high hopes. In one of his latest October 4 interviews, Kasyanov worries (or promises) that his revelations will lead to ‘serious political unrest’ in Ukraine.

Indeed, Kasyanov has been hard at work before what he claims is his imminent demise. And Fiala’s press has been overjoyed to relay his message to hundreds of thousands of viewers:

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Today, I will today go into the following topics covered in detail by Kasyanov in his many interviews and facebook posts:

— Why the much-trumpeted Flamingo rockets — supposedly produced through quite real funds from the Danish and Ukrainian government — don’t actually exist. How the CEO of ‘feminist’ company producing the Flamingos, with no background in military matters, was chosen because of her experience in show business alongside Zelensky and his sidekick Yermak

— The government’s ineffective interceptor drone project and the corruption schemes involved. Quite relevant for my European users, since the western media is currently claiming that the EU should copy Ukraine’s supposedly successful experience with interceptor drones. Kasyanov instead points to the far cheaper and more effective use of missile-based air defense systems in Russia and Israel.

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— Faked official statistics on the number of Russian missiles and drones struck down.

— What Ukraine’s 2024 triumphantly announced ‘Palyanitsya’ ‘drone missile’ has in common with the German V-1 missile of the 1940s. And why the V-1 was so much more cost-effective with the same results.

A screaming comes across the sky. It has happened before, but there is nothing to compare it to now. - Gravity’s Rainbow

As it turns out, there is plenty to compare it to!

The Flamingo flies?
Back in late August, the western media began hyping up the Flamingo missile.

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Fire Point, the Ukrainian company that claimed to have developed the missile, stated that the Flamingo could carry a 1150kg warhead and travel 3,000 kilometers. They also boasted that they’d come up with it in only nine months time, and that it is ‘completely Ukrainian-made’. Kasyanov, it should be noted, pointed out that the likes of the American Tomahawk or the Russian Kalibr cruise missile took around 10 years to develop.

Besides that, much of the August 21 Politico article dedicated to it made a big deal of the pink color of the missile, the female sex of the CEO of Fire Point, and the fact that the missile would supposedly pose problems for ‘macho Russian leader Vladimir Putin’ and his ‘big dick energy’.

Zelensky claimed at the time that Ukraine would have sizable numbers of these missiles by December. The Politico article hypothesized that the missile ‘could dramatically affect the balance of power between Kyiv and Moscow.’

But the Flamingo would dominate headlines in Ukraine quite a bit sooner, for rather different reasons.

(Paywall with free option.)

https://eventsinukraine.substack.com/p/ ... ate-maidan

******

Putin Reveals New Casualty Insights, as Russian Infrastructure Campaign Ravages Ukraine
Simplicius
Oct 06, 2025

During the latest Valdai forum presentation and Q&A, Putin gave some rare insight into the war’s casualty figures and how they play into general tactics, which is worth looking at.

Here’s the relevant excerpt in its entirety: (Video at link.)

He states in the month of September, Ukraine’s total casualties were 44,700 with slightly less than half reportedly being irretrievable. In the same month, mobilization and recruitment brought 18,500 new bodies while 14,500 total lightly wounded returned to the front from the hospital.

These are surprisingly detailed numbers suggesting Putin’s deep insight into Ukraine’s internal figures. Let’s break them down.

Less than half of 44,700 being hard losses would be something like 20-22k hard losses, while the remaining 22-24k would be lightly wounded which will return to combat after convalescence.

Out of that 20-22k hard losses, usually ~50% can be assumed to be KIA with the other 50% being maimed, i.e. amputations, etc. Thus, for the sake of this exercise we will assume about 10-11k per month are KIA. Divided by 30, this is roughly ~330-360 daily KIA—let’s call it 350—with another 350 maimed.

According to Putin, Ukraine gains 18,500 new recruits plus 14,500 wounded returnees per month, for a total regeneration rate of 33,000 monthly. We just saw that Ukraine loses ~45,000 total, for a net loss of ~12,000 per month.

A Ukrainian official just recently happened to claim that Ukraine still mobilizes 30k total monthly, but even top Ukrainian analyst Tatarigami was skeptical, which would suggest he sides closer to Putin on these figures:

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But one thing it does reveal, is that some of the pro-Russian side’s wilder estimates are highly exaggerated. There are some on the pro-Russian side who believe Ukraine suffers 1,500 pure KIA per day, or even more—and this is clearly not the case, as per Putin himself. It appears at most Ukraine fluctuates between 250-400 KIA per day, while Russia is likely in the 125-200 range, though both can have anomalous ‘spikes’ depending on the day and operation.

Keep in mind these Ukrainian losses do not take into account the desertions, which as we’ve covered here before are claimed to be upwards of 10,000 per month or more. But these figures can be misleading because we don’t know how many deserters are actually caught and brought back, or come back on their own. One can assume a good portion of them is dragged back in some way or another simply because Ukraine has an extremely permissive attitude for deserters due to the desperate state of its manpower.

Even Azov head Andrei Biletsky just shared his belief that a mass amnesty will be granted to all deserters in the future for this very reason: (Video at link.)

At the 1:10 mark of the Putin video at the top, he goes on to mention desertions, saying that 160,000 Ukrainians have deserted since January of this year, which would be closer to 20,000 per month.

Further interesting is the rare admission at 2:20 by Putin that Russia too suffers from casualties and desertions, but “much fewer” than Ukraine. Some Ukrainian investigators have found upwards of 20-30k cases of desertions in total for Russia. While that sounds like a lot, it pales next to the 200-250k several Ukrainian sources attribute to total AFU desertions since the start of the war.

Putin ends by saying that lowering the mobilization age to 21 or 18 will not change the fundamental issues.

Coincidentally, at the time that Putin’s statements triggered discussions about the validity of Ukrainian losses, several new reports from the Ukrainian front appeared to attest to Putin’s characterizations of the AFU’s manpower issues. For instance, from the Novopavlovka direction just west of Pokrovsk:

Ukranian channels confirm the dire situation in Zaporozhye/Dnepropetrovsk. They report exactly what I stated below. Reinforcements are not being sent, even though they asked for them. AFU command is even unwilling to send 1-2 battalions. Is it a manpower issue? Additionally, fortifications aren’t being built either because the retreat is so constant. The line is not stable enough to create proper defensive networks. It seems that the AFU command is unwilling or unable to actually stabilize the line here.

The Ukrainian channel’s post:

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If that wasn’t enough, prominent Western correspondent for CNN, Guardian, etc., Neil Hauer was able to interview Ukraine’s 14th National Guard Brigade which had just returned from a rotation in Novoekonomichne on the eastern flank of the Pokrovsk-Mirnograd agglomeration.

He spoke with the brigade’s commander named Bobruk, who revealed:

1. Bobruk and his team had just completed 90-day rotation, basically on the zero line/gray area the entire time. Surviving this was almost a miracle. They now had just five days off (mostly still in Donetsk oblast) before heading back - the lack of manpower is that bad.

2. Units are all tiny now, on both sides. Bobruk’s team deploys mostly in pairs, and Russians come in ones or twos. ‘Even three soldiers together is already enough to almost guarantee a (FPV) drone strike,’ Bobruk said.

3. Armour has nearly disappeared from the battlefield. Tanks, IFVs and heavy vehicles are all but absent now. ‘We saw enemy armour literally three times total in 90 days,’ Bobruk said. ‘It’s only men now - just meat.’

Funnily enough, at the same time ‘historian’ Phillips O’Brien was promoting a contrarian new piece of his own which argued the complete opposite: that Ukraine’s “manpower issues” are overblown by ‘poor analysts’.


Hauer immediately swooped in to slam the misguided professor in a case of ‘friendly fire’ that’s becoming an increasingly common sight on the pro-UA side these days:

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Also of interest is Putin’s first-time acknowledgement of Russia’s now-infamous ‘pocket advances’ of mere pairs of soldiers. During the discussions he admitted that Russian soldiers now advance in tiny groups of two or three at a time.

Listen at 0:40 of the video below:

I referred to the way combat tactics have evolved with the introduction of new technology. But just look as what our television networks have been reporting on the way our troops have been advancing their positions. Of course, this does take time. There are advances, even if they move forward by groups of two or three, there are still advances. The electronic warfare systems have been quite effective in jamming these drones to enable our troops to advance. The situation here is quite similar. (Video at link.)

This is revealing because it represents the first real official, high-level admission of Russia’s current prevailing tactics. Many perhaps have been skeptical, imagining these reports as being isolated cases, and that huge Russian armored columns must still be razing through Ukrainian defenses somewhere. Putin has dispelled such illusions and confirmed decisively that the nature of the war has truly shifted into an unrecognizable state of ‘trickle warfare’.

The most remarkable aspect of Putin’s discussion was the sheer frankness with which he spoke of the state of the Russian Armed Forces. For instance, he doesn’t shy away from admitting that ATACMS did cause Russia damage, but then eventually was adapted to.

Similarly, most leaders would likely shrink away from so freely admitting what seems a compromising fact: that Russian troops are trickling in this piecemeal fashion. But Putin takes this fact and owns it, explaining that an advance is an advance, no matter how gradual it is.

The conflict has turned into an interesting equation because both sides now openly understand its nature, including each other’s mutual strengths and weaknesses. Putin essentially admits that Russia is using the gradual boa constrictor or ‘thousand cuts’ strategy, and that Ukraine cannot plug every gap on every front. He points to the slow inevitability of such a strategy. But even knowing this, Ukraine is not able to do anything about it because of the vast resource disparity between the two countries.

The Armed Forces of Ukraine are losing 2-3 villages per day and this is just the beginning

The Ukrainian army is retreating, losing several settlements daily. This was stated by Armed Forces officer Anton Cherny on the “Politeka” channel, as reported by the TG channel “PolitNavigator.” The host asked to comment on the “stabilization of the front,” but the officer objected, saying that stopping the Russian army was not successful:

Evacuation of Pokrovsk has already taken place. The Russians are advancing very seriously in the Dnipropetrovsk region. We lose 2-3 small villages every day. And while the battles there are active, the enemy is advancing well, for them this is a good pace. Some settlements are constantly being lost.

We need to prepare, they have probed our defense. Maybe now there is a moment when we are holding them back a little, but this does not mean that the situation will be better for us in the future.


True to the pronouncement above, Russia seized several settlements just today alone: Chunyshyne, just south of Pokrovsk; Fedorovka and Vyomka on Seversk’s southern flank; and there are several new settlements ready to fall next time on the Gulyaipole front and elsewhere.

The only option for Ukraine is asymmetric warfare, attacking Russia at perceived non-combat ‘weak points’, which they believe lie in the social and economic spheres. This explains Ukraine’s current widespread campaign against Russian oil and gas infrastructure. While it is generating some fleeting success, Russia has responded with its own full-scale counter-campaign against Ukraine’s energy infrastructure. Even as of this writing another powerful strike on electrical substations in Kharkov and other widespread hits on Odessa are being carried out.



Some assorted items:

During the Valdai discussions Putin seemed to have played-down the Tomahawk threat a little more diplomatically. But in a new impromptu interview with reporter Zarubin, Putin gives a far more declarative response to the potential issue of Tomahawks in Ukraine, outright admitting that it would destroy US-Russian relations: (Video at link.)

By the way, after the flash-in-the-pan propaganda boost the initial newsbreak provided, the Tomahawk canard went the expected way:

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Speaking of Russian infrastructure strikes, new videos attest to Russian drones now routinely used to strike major transmission lines. Seen below the drones strike one such line after it had been undergoing repairs for a previous attack: (Video at link.)

After Russia’s latest round of brutal strikes, even Zelensky was forced to cry uncle, begging for a ‘unilateral ceasefire’ in the skies—in short, a call to stop the strikes which are now crippling Ukrainian industries:

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Supply trains are now routinely hit by new kinds of Geran drones, some of which are able to track the trains autonomously on the move: (Video at link.)

Russian drones paralyse Ukraine’s military transportation.

In the 404th instance, a real transport collapse has occurred: Russian UAVs “Geran” with cameras are hunting military railway trains. Over the past month, more than a dozen echelons have been destroyed, and official Kiev is carefully hiding these losses.
(Video at link.)

Russian Geran UAVs have begun striking moving targets.

▪️In the Chernihiv region, a strike on a Ukrainian rail fuel train was recorded for the first time while it was moving, 150-200 km from the border. The new drone model is equipped with a night-vision camera, a guidance system, and communications with operators hundreds of kilometers away.

▪️The first drone hit a locomotive, bringing the train to a halt, and subsequent drones began striking platforms and tank cars.

▪️Russian drones also collided with two Ukrainian helicopters, which attempted to shoot them down, putting them at risk of crashing.

▪️A minicomputer, capable of simultaneously processing video and recognizing targets by comparing them to pre-loaded models, was found among the wreckage.

RVvoenkor




Recall how weeks ago Russia struck a factory that had just opened after major investments and expenditures had already been made. Now it has repeated this act, as a major Ukrainian logistics production site in Lvov was hit after being under construction for a year.

Here’s the Ukrainian video touting the plant’s launch—check the 2:15 mark for the ‘before and after’ from last night: (Video at link.)

Yes, you read that correctly — not “Sparrow Park Lvov”, as claimed, but rather “Ukrpromenergoresurs”, which was formally part of this industrial complex but was used as an industrial warehouse hub.

The site housed tanks with petrochemical components, fuels and lubricants, and energy equipment, including parts of pump units, pipeline valve assemblies, and blocks of thermal power systems. Officially, the enterprise specializes in energy engineering, but some of the premises were actually used for storing equipment and materials for armored vehicle purposes — components for repairing equipment and energy systems, supporting the logistics of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

The nature of the fire and the power of the detonations at the strike site fully correspond to the ignition of petrochemical substances and materials with high thermal conductivity, which excludes the version of an “accidental fire”.

Thus, the strike hit a facility directly involved in the enemy’s military and industrial logistics — a warehouse disguised as civilian infrastructure, serving as an auxiliary supply node for the western cluster of energy and technical support.

It is worth noting separately that peaceful tenants were indeed present. As sources confirm, the industrial park included warehouses and sections rented for storing products of mass retail brands — such as Sinsay, Mohito, and others. However, this does not negate the fact of the dual purpose of the facility: behind one fence, civilian storage units and military logistics infrastructure coexisted.

👆DonbassPartizan




A very atmospheric video from last night’s strikes in Lvov comes by way of British mercenary Richard Woodruff. Here he’s seen holed up somewhere in the western Ukrainian city under an onslaught of Gerans and, according to him, cruise missiles as well: (Video at link.)



Lastly, an instructive video from Deputy Chairman of the State Duma Pyotr Tolstoy who sounds off on Europe and the ‘Rules Based Order’. His dialogue gives an idea of the new type of confidence and low-tolerance sentiment blossoming in Russia in relation to Europe. He firmly states that Russia is in fact the largest European country and will not be dictated to as such, and that all Europe is being hijacked by the minority far-western European countries who want to speak for the remainder of central and eastern Europe: (Video at link.)

It’s particularly symbolic because the man he’s speaking to is none other than Alexander von Bismarck, great-grandson of Otto von Bismarck.

https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/put ... y-insights

******

Intrigue — and Confusion — Reign Over Ukraine
October 6, 2025

U.S. President Donald Trump aired frustrations that his efforts to end the Ukraine war are not working with Russian President Vladimir Putin. The matrix is getting complicated, writes M.K. Bhadrakumar.

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Russia’s President Vladimir Putin, Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and Kremlin Spokesman Dmitry Peskov. 2019. (Kremlin.ru, Wikimedia, CC BY 4.0)

By M.K. Bhadrakumar
Indian Punchline

The Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov came out of a meeting in New York on Sept. 24 with the U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio showing a thumbs-up sign as he passed journalists.

It was a confusing signal so soon after U.S. President Donald Trump publicly shamed the Russian military as a “paper tiger” and stunned European capitals by saying that Ukraine could still “fight and win” all its land.

A charitable explanation could be that Trump was building the off ramp to hand the responsibility for Ukraine’s defence to the Europeans. He made a strong point that Europeans can and should do more.

That said, it is also noticeable that Trump’s initial sympathy for Russia has given way steadily to a more neutral position — a shift that accelerated last month.

British columnist Gerard Baker wrote in The Times that “Trump is signaling to Russia that he no longer has its back. But he has also made clear that Europeans can’t rely on U.S. support.” Moscow played cool initially, but realism dawned within the week.

While reduced U.S. involvement in Ukraine is a good thing to happen for Russia, it is far from an open and shut case that Trump won’t reassume NATO leadership.

The matrix is getting complicated, as NATO is not in step with the U.S. and Trump does not control NATO anymore, although NATO doesn’t amount to much without America. And neither NATO nor Trump controls the war.

Clearly, the U.S. appears to be growing more distant. This is an epic inflection point: in the American global order Europe flourishes and has the opportunity to become a geopolitical force in its own right but also risks becoming an afterthought in a fragmenting world.

Scott Bessent, U.S. treasury secretary who is close to Trump’s thinking, highlighted this paradox in an interview with Fox Business when he said, “As I told my European counterparts about two weeks ago, ‘All I can hear from you is that Putin wants to march into Warsaw. The one thing I’m sure of is that Putin isn’t marching into Boston.’”

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U.S. President Donald Trump with Ukraine’s President Volodymy Zelensky in Paris on Dec. 7, 2024. (President of Ukraine/Flickr/Public Domain)

Trump’s remarks about the Ukraine war and his invitation to the E.U. to be the ‘counterweight’ to Russia were by no means a spontaneous, emotional outburst. They came from long multi-layered strategy sessions over several weeks.

Indeed, by last Sunday, U.S. Vice President J.D. Vance was already revealing that Washington is considering a Ukrainian request to obtain Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine — a long-range, nuclear capable, all-weather cruise missile of technological sophistication and precision whose land-based version is in production.

Tomahawks, if inducted into the war, will give Kiev the capability to strike deep inside Russia. Moscow sharply reacted overnight to Vance’s remark, saying it would carefully analyse whether any Tomahawk missiles that might be supplied to Ukraine would be fired using targeting data supplied by the U.S.

A new dangerous phase of the war is beginning, which holds the risk of a direct Russia-NATO confrontation. Asked about Vance’s comments, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Russia was analysing them carefully. President Putin has previously stated that Western countries will make themselves direct parties to the war if they supply targeting and intelligence to enable Ukraine to fire missiles deep inside Russia.

Peskov said,

“The question, as before, is this: who can launch these missiles…? Can only Ukrainians launch them, or do American soldiers have to do that? Who is determining the targeting of these missiles? The American side or the Ukrainians themselves?”

Peskov added that “a very in-depth analysis” is required.

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U.S. guided-missile destroyer targets Libya’s Mediterranean Coast, March 19, 2011. (U.S. Navy, Wikimedia Commons)

This is a moment of truth, since with Tomahawks arrival in the war zone, Trump will be climbing the escalation ladder at a juncture when indications are that Ukraine has strengthened its capability lately, launching a series of successful drone strikes against Russian refineries.

They triggered fuel shortages, driving gasoline prices to record highs and prompted Moscow to restrict exports to stabilise its domestic market.

The locus of the proxy war in Ukraine may altogether change going forward. Germany is willing to pay for the procurement of the Tomahawks. Russian expert opinion is that there is no magic weapon capable of changing the dynamic of the war. But beneath that high threshold, there are other compelling realities.

The West’s last throw of the dice may well be to stoke up social discontent within Russia, as parliamentary elections are to be held not later than Sept. 10, 2026. The West’s assessment, rightly or wrongly, is that the majority opinion in Russia favours an early end to the war.

The discords within the transatlantic alliance worked well for Russia so far. Also, Trump exhibited little appetite for military adventurism [except perhaps in Venezuela] or foreign entanglements. American foreign policy, once dominated by containment and the domino theory, had gone into reverse.

However, now it seems that although the White House ceased to be hostile, the U.S. will still continue to supply intelligence to Kiev and allow Ukraine to buy its advanced weaponry with the Europeans footing the bill.

German Chancellor Friedrich Merz wrote in the Financial Times two weeks ago urging the E.U. to transfer Russia’s frozen reserves (roughly $300 billion) to Ukraine exclusively for procurement of weapons. It effectively means Ukraine should be able to hold the line.

The crunch time comes when or if NATO toughens its rules of engagement on its eastern flank to make it easier to shoot down intruding [alleged] Russian aircraft. No doubt, the alliance has become firmer in its messaging towards the Kremlin over past week.

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President Donald Trump on a phone call with Russian President Vladimir Putin at the White House on Aug. 18, 2025, before the U.S. president met with with Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky and European and NATO leaders in the Oval Office. (White House/Daniel Torok)

But there are indications also that Washington and Moscow are communicating. Neither side is looking for confrontation. As things stand, it is very much possible that Trump may not agree ultimately to the supply of Tomahawks to Ukraine.

On the other hand, in the changed circumstances and growing uncertainties about a negotiated settlement, Russia may be left with no option but to go all out for a military solution. After all, even if there is going to be a negotiated settlement on paper, it may not add up to much.

The so-called Helsinki Accords (1975) were painstakingly negotiated through a two-year period in Geneva and every European country, and the U.S. and Canada signed it, but exactly one year later, this was what Henry Kissinger told President Gerard Ford:

“We (U.S.) never wanted it but went along with the Europeans … It is meaningless — it is just a grandstand play to the left. We are going along with it.”

In the final analysis, all that the Helsinki Final Act achieved was to draw international attention to the human rights situation in the Soviet bloc and open ties between the East European countries and Western Europe, which of course led to the rise of the Solidarity movement in Poland and an overall loosening of the cohesion of the Warsaw Pact, which culminated in the collapse of the Berlin Wall.

https://consortiumnews.com/2025/10/06/i ... r-ukraine/

(Here's another guy whose cognitive dissonance will not allow him to admit that a US President is non compos. The confusion is in Donald's head.)

******

Britain is preparing a fake attack on European ports.
October 6, 5:02 PM

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Russia's Foreign Intelligence Service has issued a warning that Britain is preparing a provocation in Europe involving an attack on a Ukrainian or NATO vessel in European ports.

London is furious that years of British efforts to achieve Russia's "strategic defeat" and turn it into a pariah state are failing. Keir Starmer's cabinet and its intelligence agencies are preparing to respond to Russia's successes in the Ukrainian theater of military operations with yet another vile provocation.

According to the British plan, a group of traitorous Russians fighting on the side of the Ukrainian Armed Forces is to attack a Ukrainian Navy ship or a foreign civilian vessel in a European port.
Ukrainian militants have already arrived in Britain to undergo the necessary training.
The saboteurs will be equipped with Chinese-made underwater equipment, which will then be presented as "proof" of China's support for Russia's "aggression against Ukraine.
" The captured "terrorists" will be accused of allegedly acting on Moscow's orders.

London's calculation is that the Russophobic European political elite will happily swallow the fake news about "malicious Kremlin agents" to justify the need to further increase military aid to Ukraine and the militarization of "united Europe" to combat "Russian aggression."

(c) SVR Press Bureau .

This is in addition to the ongoing propaganda campaign about alleged Russian drone launches in Europe.
The worse the Ukrainian Armed Forces' situation on the front lines and the more painful the Russian Armed Forces' strikes on the enemy's rear, the higher the likelihood of such provocations, the main purpose of which is to try to disrupt established trends on the front lines and, if possible, draw NATO countries into a direct war with Russia.

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/10112836.html

The first Order of Lenin...
October 6, 9:00 PM

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Putin signed a decree granting the honorary title "Moscow" to the 1st Order of Lenin Air Defense and Missile Defense Army.
The army is responsible for the defense of the capital and surrounding areas.

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The 6th Combined Arms Army has now become a Guards Army.

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The 20th Anti-Aircraft Missile Regiment has received the honorary title "Kherson".

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https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/10113332.html

Re-enlisted and mobilized
October 6, 11:03 PM

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2012. Campaigning in Ukraine. "I found out my grandson voted for Regions, so I transferred the house to the cat."

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The year is 2025. Cannibals kidnap a cat from the street. For authenticity, the authors of the second neural network should have used the cat's face from the first propaganda piece. It would have been even more telling.

The second story follows logically from the first. And, of course, it affects more than just cats. Under the slogan "anyone but Yanukovych," they've placed a select group of ghouls on their necks, who will spare neither cats nor people.

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/10113648.html

Time for holidays and fun?
October 7, 11:12

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The Russian Association of Heroes, advisor to the head of the DPR, Yan Gagin, and State Duma deputy General Shamanov called for the celebrations and festivities to be toned down until Victory Day is achieved.

Is it a time for celebration and merriment?

Are regional authorities on the same page as their people?
Our country is renowned for its hospitality and the generosity of the Russian soul.
We love to celebrate loudly and lavishly, but is now the time?

The New Year is approaching.
City streets will greet us with illuminations and festivities.
We are fighting for our people, so that peaceful life can continue in the rear, so that people don't feel the hardships and deprivations that soldiers at the front face every day.
Summer was a period of celebrations, various anniversaries, and city days.
The public and we, combat officers, logically asked ourselves: is now the time?
We mustn't forget that our country is at war with the collective West.
All their resources are being thrown against us.
As usual, the Russian people have risen to defend their country, everyone is helping as best they can, and various fundraisers are being organized, both for money and for essential items.
Observing the summer festivities, we, along with the Russian Association of Heroes and its director, a true combat general, Vladimir Shamanov, came up with a proposal.
We appeal to regional authorities as follows: transfer at least half of the funds allocated for city decorations to aid the front.
Right now, all the energy of a sensible society must be devoted to providing real aid to the front.
We will certainly celebrate all these holidays, but only after our Victory.
If anyone disagrees with us, let them say so now!
I doubt the heads of our regions will be reluctant to support our soldiers on the front!
I am confident that entertainment, festive tinsel, and new street and city names, as well as the considerable costs involved, will have to wait until our Victory.

We urge competent regional authorities to respond and launch the "Holiday After Victory" campaign.
For my part, Yan Gagin, our comrades from the Russian Association of Heroes, and I are all ready to offer advice and assistance in delivering necessary items to the front.

I can't speak for other regions, but in Sevastopol, the holiday spirit has been toned down somewhat, which isn't surprising, as the city is considered a frontline city and we frequently have air raid sirens due to drone attempts to penetrate Crimea and Sevastopol (102 drones were shot down over Crimea and the Black Sea last night). I don't think there's any need to dress completely in rags and walk around with gloomy expressions, but it's still worth remembering that this is wartime. I remember back in 2023, Crimean Governor Aksyonov declared that he considered excessive New Year's celebrations inappropriate given the events at the front. At the same time, fireworks displays were restricted.

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/10114077.html

Google Translator
"There is great chaos under heaven; the situation is excellent."

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