Footnotes from the Ukrainian "Crisis"; New High-Points in Cynicism Part V

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Re: Footnotes from the Ukrainian "Crisis"; New High-Points in Cynicism Part V

Post by blindpig » Tue Sep 09, 2025 11:44 am

On the way to the second phase
Posted by @nsanzo ⋅ 09/09/2025

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“You are right, General,” wrote Yulia Svyrydenko in response to a post by Keith Kellogg, Donald Trump’s envoy for Ukraine, who had highlighted the risk of escalation posed by Russian bombings. However, the objective of the Ukrainian prime minister’s message was not to praise the general, but rather to qualify the second part of the American officer’s message, which at the end of his text did not limit itself to condemning Russian actions but reaffirming his commander’s position of moving toward a resolution. “This is another sign that Russia is not seeking peace. I believe the world will be a safer place if President Trump decides to impose severe sanctions on Russia. Shoot, Mr. President!” Without subtlety, the Ukrainian discourse speaks of peace and security, adding expressions that suggest the use of force, something natural in a country that has been demanding weapons to fight Russia for eleven years and whose version of peace through force is not limited to symbolic actions such as changing the name of the Department of Defense to the Department of War, but also demands material to continue waging war against Russia.

However, even kyiv, a proxy that has been demanding support far beyond what it knows it will achieve for years, is aware that there are certain limits. Ukraine has not yet dared to launch a campaign against the part of the US administration that has made it clear it does not wish to continue supplying materiel to perpetuate the war and that vetoes the use of US missiles—and also British and French ones, since they include American components—against Russian territory. Capable of organizing smear campaigns against any of its enemies, Ukraine has chosen, at least for the moment, not to attack Elbridge Colby, the main ideologist of these measures and of the need to abandon European security in the hands of continental NATO member countries in favor of other priority regions. The need not to offend Donald Trump is once again the main factor, which is why kyiv has opted to suggest military solutions, but has fundamentally insisted on demanding an economic war that would achieve what the 18 European and US sanctions packages have failed to achieve.

This is also the objective of Donald Trump, who yesterday announced his willingness to move to the "second phase" of sanctions against the Russian Federation. He did so without any specifics and without defining the target of these potential coercive measures. However, comments by members of the White House economic team over the past few weeks suggest that the use of sanctions against Russia has a slightly different objective than that sought by kyiv, one much more explicitly focused on destroying the Russian economy with the goal of destabilizing the country and weakening it until it has to negotiate from a position of inferiority. The words of Trump and his team aim to undermine Russia's war-making capabilities, but the insistence on singling out third countries indicates a clear geopolitical objective that goes far beyond the Ukrainian conflict.

This is the case with the United States' obsession with projecting blame for the war and accusing other countries of having blood on their hands. “US President Donald Trump’s senior trade adviser, Peter Navarro, has stepped up his criticism of India, calling New Delhi “the Kremlin’s oil money laundromat.” Navarro, a staunch Trump supporter since his first presidential campaign in 2016, has accused India of “freeloading” at Washington’s expense and also called the Ukraine conflict “Modi’s war,” wrote The Indian Express last week , one of many Indian media outlets expressing surprise at the targeted attack on the country for freeloading from a scheme designed by and for the West. As Adam Tooze recently explained, the price cap unilaterally imposed by Western countries on Russian oil was intended to ensure that countries like India could benefit from their previous commercial and political relationship with Russia in order to obtain huge discounts on the acquisition of oil that they could then refine and resell at competitive yet extremely lucrative prices.

According to the British economist and historian, this was a way to improve India's position as a counterweight to China, the current main obsession of the United States and the European Union. For Trump, it was also a way to hinder any process of economic or political integration of a group that has made it clear he is concerned about: the BRICS, among which India was clearly the weakest link precisely because of its proximity to the West. Sometimes, sanctions end up achieving exactly the opposite of what they were intended to achieve, as could be seen in India's reaction to the accusations: New Delhi has reaffirmed its right to continue purchasing Russian energy, and Modi's image alongside Xi and Putin in China continues to be the subject of editorials in the mainstream American media.

Seeking a type of economic warfare that achieves the objectives of the sanctions without affecting specific countries has not been a key argument behind the regime of measures applied by the United States and the EU, which began the process by sanctioning the Russian energy sector at a time when doing so was clearly and almost directly a punishment for Germany, which has paid with the loss of competitiveness resulting from not having access to cheap and reliable energy that, until 2022, it acquired from Russia. According to some experts, the measures being sought now do take this aspect into account. “Any new sanctions would focus on oil, not gas. Russia accounts for 2% of EU oil imports. Therefore, the United States and the EU could impose secondary sanctions without provoking an adverse political reaction in their countries. However, the sanctions would cause a major rift with China, India, Turkey, and Brazil,” indicated Esfandyar Batmanghelidj, an economic expert with particular expertise in Eurasia. As usual, the situation in Ukraine is the least important factor. As a Ukrainian media outlet highlighted last week, Russian crude oil refined in India is one of the country's current energy bases. Nor is consolidating the difficulties of the German industry, the United States' only potential rival in this sector, a factor to consider.

Expelling Russia from the Western energy market may not spell economic doom for the United States or the EU, but it will have political consequences in reshaping international relations—an aspect that seems of little concern to either Ukraine, which is willing to do anything for the false hope of achieving an economic blitzkrieg, or the European Union, whose desire to please Donald Trump seems boundless.

The starting point of Ukraine and its European allies is that the United States has the capacity to sink the Russian economy, and that is the objective of the contacts of recent weeks. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has expressed himself in the same terms in recent hours, in the purest style of a bully who believes himself superior to the rest of the world, threatening to bring the Russian economy to "total collapse." Through commercial acquisitions, European capitals have guaranteed the availability of weapons to continue the war in the medium and even long term, as they are aware that the United States will not renounce profit in favor of peace. However, Brussels, London, Paris, and Berlin seem to be beginning to understand that the increased flow of arms cannot bring Ukraine the victory over Russia they have been yearning for for three and a half years.

The issue of sanctions appears to be the focus of the meetings that several European leaders—whose names have not yet been mentioned—will hold in the coming hours during their visit to the White House. The two political summits in Alaska and Washington have failed to advance any political process, primarily due to European disinterest and the US inability to find a viable path to negotiation. The mutual escalation of the air war gives continental leaders renewed impetus to demand tougher measures.

The main question, as on previous occasions, is whether the Western allies will be able to reconcile their agendas. For both sides of the Atlantic, imposing sanctions on the Russian energy sector is important: in Europe to undermine Moscow's war effort and ensure a continental rupture that will endure beyond the war, and in the United States, to obtain benefits at the expense of a rival in the sector. However, the political objectives are very different. Despite the rhetoric of forcing Russia to "come to the negotiating table"—something Russia already did in 2014, 2022, and now—the interest of European countries is Moscow's defeat, not peace in Ukraine. For the United States, however, having achieved its economic and political objectives, the emphasis is on achieving a ceasefire, leaving the post-war architecture in the hands of European countries, and continuing to profit from arms sales for the foreseeable armed peace.

“Look, we're going to get it done. The Russia-Ukraine situation. We're going to do it,” Donald Trump said yesterday after admitting that he's not happy with anything that's happening in that war. However, with no indication of a US strategy beyond supporting the military mission of European NATO countries as security guarantees—and the fact that there can be no agreement with Russia—and threatening sanctions that would negate any incentive Moscow might have to accept an agreement, the US president's words continue to seem more like a wishful thinking far removed from reality than a minimally realistic possibility.

https://slavyangrad.es/2025/09/09/camin ... unda-fase/

Google Translator

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From Cassad's telegram account:

Colonelcassad
0:15
In the part of Donbas occupied by the Ukrainian Armed Forces, in the village of Yarovaya, the enemy organized an expected provocation with an attack on civilians in the style of the attack on the Kramatorsk railway station. This time, they struck pensioners who were receiving their pensions. 21 people were killed and more than 20 were injured.

Let me remind you that in mid-August, the Russian Defense Ministry warned about the preparation of such a provocation.

According to the Defense Ministry, a missile attack or a drone strike is being prepared on a densely populated area in the Kharkiv region, possibly a hospital, with a large number of victims.

Media representatives must record this attack, responsibility for which will be placed on Russia.

Sources of the Russian Defense Ministry warned that provocations are possible in other populated areas. Their goal is to create a negative media background and conditions for the disruption of US-Russia negotiations. (c) Russian Defense Ministry. 12.08.2025


Overall, a crude and bloody provocation in the style of the attack on the Kramatorsk railway station, which was hit by a Ukrainian Tochka-U.

It is quite clear why they are doing this - they will beg for new air defense systems and sanctions.

***

Colonelcassad
The Second Western District Military Court has sentenced four Ukrainian citizens who were part of a sabotage and reconnaissance group involved in committing a terrorist attack at a military airfield in the Kaluga Region, mining the power transmission line supports of the Smolensk and Kursk nuclear power plants, and organizing weapons caches.

According to the FSB Public Relations Center, this sabotage and reconnaissance group was formed from regular employees of the Main Intelligence Directorate (GUR) and the Special Operations Service (SOS) of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine.

"On August 30, 2023, the saboteurs were blocked in the Navlinsky District of the Bryansk Region. During the clash, three of them were eliminated and four were detained . A large quantity of weapons, ammunition, explosives and explosive devices, night vision devices, thermal imagers and communications equipment were seized

from them." A criminal case was opened against them under a number of articles, including committing terrorist acts and smuggling weapons and explosives.

For the totality of the crimes committed , they were sentenced to imprisonment in a strict regime penal colony for terms of
26 to 28 years, with the first 5 years to be served in prison, and fines of 1.7 to 2 million rubles. The saboteurs fully admitted their guilt and actively cooperated with the investigation.

https://t.me/s/boris_rozhin

Google Translator

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Ukraine's Victory Redefined

In November 2022 the (former) President of Ukraine Vladimir Zelenski published a 10 point 'peace plan'.

It included:

5. Restoring Ukraine's territorial integrity and Russia reaffirming it according the U.N. Charter, which Zelenskiy said is "not up to negotiations".
6. Withdrawal of Russian troops and cessation of hostilities, restoration of Ukraine's state borders with Russia.
...
10. Confirmation of the war's end, including a document signed by the involved parties.


In September 2024 Zelenski raised the curtain of his Victory Plan for Ukraine. As I wrote at that time:

The 'victory plan' is not about a real plan for Ukraine's action but a list of demands towards the 'western' supporters of Ukraine.

The theory in Kiev is that a fulfillment of these demands will allow Ukraine to win the war and to press Russian into accepting Ukraine's 10 point 'peace plan'.

As explained by a Zelinski advisor:

A source close to Zelensky told the Kyiv Independent that the "victory plan" aims "to create such conditions and such an atmosphere that Russia will no longer be able to ignore the peace formula and the peace summit."
...
"The problem is, to get to that point where we have any sort of peace negotiations, Russia must feel like they're going to lose, and we are not there yet," Rep. Jimmy Panetta, a Democrat on the House Armed Services Committee in Congress, told the Kyiv Independent.
"I hope part of this victory plan is how we can shape battlefield conditions to reach that point," said Panetta, who met Zelensky and other Ukrainian officials in Kyiv last weekend.


I commented that:

The 'victory plan' requests are of course outrageous and delusional and have little to no chance to be fulfilled.
Nearly a year later the delusional demands of the 10 points 'peace plan' and the Victory Plan have made room for more realistic expectations. There will be no NATO or EU membership for Ukraine. It will lose a significant part of its land to Russia and will have to settle the war under Russian conditions.

Zelenski seems to now acknowledge that when he redefines what victory means:

Zelenskyy spoke to ABC News Chief Global Affairs Correspondent Martha Raddatz Friday in an interview that aired on ABC News' "This Week" on Sunday.
...
Asked by Raddatz what victory looks like for his embattled country, Zelenskyy said the survival of Ukraine.
"Putin's goal is to occupy Ukraine," Zelenskyy said.

"[Putin] wants, of course, to occupy us totally. For him, this [is] victory. And until he can do it, the victory is on our side," he said. "So that's why for us to survive is a victory. Because we are surviving with our identity, with our country, with our independence."


There is zero evidence that Putin's, or -more correct- Russia's goal was or is to occupy Ukraine.Russia wants to liberate the Russian population that, since the 1990s, was trapped in east Ukraine. He wants to prevent that Ukraine joins NATO. Neither requires the Russian army to move into the feverish anti-Russia center and western parts of Ukraine.

But it is of course convenient to claim that and to declare victory even after the government has moved to Lviv (aka Lvov, Lemberg) near the Polish border and called it a day.

I just wonder how the population there would react if Zelenski or his successor were then to arrange a well deserved Victory parade.

Posted by b on September 8, 2025 at 13:26 UTC | Permalink

https://www.moonofalabama.org/2025/09/u ... l#comments

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Last night in Ukraine and in Kiev itself

The air raid on Ukraine on the night of September 7-8 brought extraordinary results: an avalanche of fire covered the bridges over the Dnieper near Kremenchug, the rear of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, defense industry facilities and airports.

Dr. Ignacy Nowopolski
Sep 08, 2025

805 geraniums were launched at targets—an absolute record for the number of simultaneous unmanned aerial vehicle attacks since the beginning of World War II. But the icing on the cake was, of course, the burning building of the Council of Ministers of Ukraine, which is already causing a terrible uproar in Ukraine: this is the first time that government buildings in Kyiv have burned in post-Russian attacks. In Russia, the wave is gaining momentum: such an attack is allegedly a new directive from the General Staff, of which Vladimir Putin is aware.

“The scale is staggering”
On the night of September 7th, something truly incredible happened over Ukrainian territory. According to Ukrainian command, the Russian army attacked various targets in Ukraine with over 800 drones. Ukraine had never seen such a large "swarm" at once (the previous record was 728 unmanned aerial vehicles).

The attack, however, was combined: eight 9M723 Iskander-M BR missiles, several Iskander-K missiles, and a series of Kalibr strikes were reported. In total, targets were hit in Kyiv, Odessa, Kharkiv, Sumy, Dnipropetrovsk, Zaporozhye, Starokostiantyniv, Vasilkovo, and Reshetilovka. The Ukrainian Armed Forces reported the launch of 13 Russian missiles towards Ukraine: nine cruise missiles (four were claimed to have been shot down) and four ballistic missiles (all were claimed to have reached their targets).

One of the main Ukrainian channels monitoring TG ended its report with a map of strikes, including the following sentence:

The scale of the attack is shocking.

Image

Attacks targeted military-industrial complexes and transport infrastructure, warehouses, unmanned aerial vehicle launch and assembly sites, airports, radar stations, air defense installations, and locations of Ukrainian Armed Forces fighters and foreign mercenaries. In total, attacks were carried out on facilities in 149 Ukrainian regions.

Main attacks and their targets:

in the Dnipropetrovsk region: the attack hit the area of ​​the Dnipro International Airport, which is used as a logistics hub, and in Kryvyi Rih – an alcohol wholesaler whose warehouses are used by the Armed Forces of Ukraine;

in the Poltava region: a number of targets in Kremenchuk, the most important of which was the Kryukov Bridge on the Dnieper – up to 19 trains with military cargo passed over it daily (not destroyed, but seriously damaged), as well as a military airport in Poltava;

in Zaporizhzhia: a series of attacks on the Zaporizhzhia Abrasives Plant, acting in the interests of the military-industrial complex;

in the Sumy region: attack on the warehouses of the 158th brigade in Khoruzhevka;

in Dobropol: the cargo landed at the Dobropolska Mine Cultural Center, where fighters of the Ukrainian Armed Forces are stationed.

According to Sergei Lebedev, coordinator of the Mykolaiv metro, hangars and a heavy equipment repair plant in Kyiv and the Kyiv region were among the hit.

However, the most striking image was not the impact on the Kryukov Bridge, but rather footage of the burning building of the Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine. By noon on September 7, the fire had reached 1,000 square meters, and helicopters were extinguishing the flames. It is worth noting that the top floor, where the fire is most intense, is the building of the Ministry of Finance of Ukraine, which houses Prime Minister Yulia Sviridenko's office:

Image

According to Ukrainian media, the attack on the Ukrainian Cabinet of Ministers is not accidental. A theory is being actively promoted that Russia is sending a signal to Kyiv: if you don't become more compliant, the next target will be Zelensky's office building and other government buildings on Bankova Street.

This is a new twist in Russian attacks on Ukraine. Until now, Ukrainian government buildings in Kyiv have not been targeted.

- wrote the mayor of Kyiv, Vitali Klitschko, on social media.

Image

Everyone understands that if Russia had set itself the goal of attacking government buildings in Kyiv, such an attack would have resulted not only in a fire on the upper floors, but also, however severe, in the probable destruction of the entire building. There are plenty of examples of this type in other targets – command headquarters and entire hotels housing Ukrainian Armed Forces personnel have collapsed like houses of cards.

One thing is certain: the constant provocation of Russia by Kiev and its Western masters is causing and will continue to cause increasing suffering among the civilian population. And it would be good if it were only Ukrainian. Berlin and Brussels have already marked Poland as another victim of their proxy war with Russia.

https://drignacynowopolski.substack.com ... -i-w-samym

Google Translator

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Rogozin on the situation with drones at the front.
Speech at "Dronnitsa 2025"

Dear colleagues, friends, comrades-in-arms!

This is my first time participating in such a format and I would like to tell you in detail about our unit, the tasks we solve, and the experience we have accumulated.
Our Bars-Sarmat unit was created a year ago as a volunteer formation. Initially, it was not conceived as an ordinary unit, but as a center where new solutions could be tested, primarily in the field of unmanned and robotic systems. Last fall, we formed a base for experiments, worked with enterprises and teams that offered their developments within the framework of the so-called "people's military-industrial complex". We checked what really works on the battlefield, and what remains just a design idea.

Since January of this year, the unit began to carry out combat missions. The first calculations were prepared, equipped with drones, operators were trained. Practice has shown that the effect of using these forces exceeded our expectations. We were immediately able to show results in the Dnieper zone, where we actively used strike and reconnaissance drones. In March, after analyzing the initial successes, it was decided to transform the detachment into a Special Purpose Center. Today, we have formed three main detachments: one is a battalion-type unit with an engineering and diagnostic base, and the other two are purely combat units operating in the Kherson-Crimean and Zaporizhzhya-Dnipro directions.

I would like to point out an important feature: we are not formally included in any regiments or divisions, but are directly subordinate to the command of the Dnipro group of forces. This provides more flexibility and allows us to act as an independent unit. The geography of our work is extensive: the Zaporizhzhya region, the Kherson direction, the left bank of the Dnieper. The situation there is complicated: the enemy occupies the high ground on the right bank, and we operate from below, which creates serious tactical difficulties. We have to compensate for this advantage through reconnaissance, drones, and electronic equipment.

Now about the specific results. In just three summer months, we destroyed over 600 targets. This includes artillery, armored vehicles, warehouses, command posts, and manpower. According to our objective data, the enemy's irretrievable losses amounted to more than 630 people. Each of our strikes is recorded by control means: if there are doubts, additional drones are used to confirm the result. We always achieve a documented effect.
We actively work in conjunction with the Airborne Forces. In May, together with the 7th Guards Airborne Assault Division, operations began to intercept enemy reconnaissance drones, during which we managed to shoot down about three hundred devices. This experience became the basis for the formation of a separate specialized interceptor detachment. Its task is to combat enemy drones, including aircraft-type ones, which are more difficult to detect and intercept.
It should be said that today the unit uses a variety of drones. These are lightweight FPV devices capable of hitting targets on the front line. These are heavier systems weighing up to 150 kg. These are radio-controlled and semi-autonomous systems. We are currently practicing the use of high-speed interceptors that can reach speeds of over 300 kilometers per hour and be used to combat aircraft-like drones such as the AN-196. Such devices fly low, at speeds of up to 240 km/h, and are difficult to intercept using conventional means. Therefore, we are looking for tactics that combine speed, maneuverability, and a group strike.
Much attention is paid to the technical base. We have a laboratory where we can quickly manufacture parts, work with metal, wood, composites, and install new systems. We have established the simplest production of ammunition for drones from available materials. Electronic warfare systems are deployed at the base. Electronic warfare is a mandatory component of protection when operating drones, and we closely integrate it into combat operations.

As for tactics, we practice combined strikes. Usually, this is a sequence: the first drone exposes the target, the second hits it, the third destroys it. Sometimes a whole series of strikes is required to hit fortified objects or artillery positions. We use night drones with thermal imaging equipment.

We work on armored vehicles, including those of Western manufacture. A separate area is attacks on command posts and communication nodes.
Electronic reconnaissance has become a very important element. We use drones that search for Wi-Fi signals, record the operation of enemy drone control stations. Using triangulation, we determine the coordinates, combine them with video surveillance and deliver combined strikes with artillery and drones. As a result, the enemy loses control and equipment.

Our main task is to minimize the losses of our own infantry. We burn out corridors, clear shelters, destroy equipment so that assault units can work with less risk. Everything we do is aimed at preserving the lives of our soldiers and at the same time inflicting maximum damage on the enemy.
I will also note one more important point. Our unit is volunteer, but at the same time, it is an experimental platform. We have a flexible structure, we can quickly implement new solutions, test them in practice, and then transfer this experience to the army. This is how the basis for the mass introduction of advanced technologies in the Armed Forces is created.

To sum it up. In a year, we have gone from a small volunteer unit to a full-fledged brigade — the Center for Special Purpose Unmanned Systems, with our own laboratory, combat crews, new tactics and serious results. We have proven the effectiveness of combining unmanned systems, electronic warfare, artillery and assault units. Now our task is to expand this experience, implement it everywhere and bring it to the level of mandatory practice for all branches of the armed forces.

Colleagues, the question was asked: "How much does it cost to shoot down a Vampire? What is the price worthy of a product with a high probability of hitting such a target, for example, at five kilometers?"

This is a very correct question, and it touches on the very essence of military economics.

I will start with the second — with the cost and rationality of using weapons. In military economics, the principle applies: a cheaper means must destroy a more expensive one. This rule is universal and immutable. If you spend weapons that cost many times more on a simple target, you bleed your own army and economy dry.

Let's look at the actual statistics of the current conflict. According to our data, approximately 75% of the enemy's losses - both in equipment and manpower - are caused by strikes by unmanned aerial vehicles. About 15% are artillery, 5% - aviation. The rest are other means. That is, drones have become a key tool of modern warfare, they are the ones that create economic efficiency.

Now a simple example. A modern enemy tank costs about 300 to 700 million rubles. We hit it with a drone costing about 100 thousand rubles. This ratio is absolutely correct. It is a real military economy. And there is nothing new in this. Let's remember World War II: the Germans produced Tigers and Panthers - expensive, complex machines. We made dozens of T-34s. In the end, it was mass production and simplicity, and not expensive exclusivity, that became the factor of victory.

But at the same time, the opposite situation arises. The enemy uses relatively cheap unmanned aircraft and gliders. Their design is simple: an engine, a control unit, a glider. The cost is incomparably small compared to our air defense systems. And we are forced to spend anti-aircraft missiles worth tens and hundreds of millions to intercept them. Otherwise, they break through.

The result is a paradox. To shoot down a target that costs tens of thousands of rubles, we spend a missile worth hundreds of millions. And the enemy can have hundreds of such targets every day. No economy - neither ours, nor the American, nor the Chinese - can withstand the expenditure of 100-200 missiles per day. This is a dead-end logic. This means that alternative methods are needed. We need mass, cheap, simple means of interception. This is where the field opens up for new developments, for the "people's military-industrial complex", for those who are ready to offer fresh solutions.

Now about something else, no less important. How are technical specifications born? How does feedback between the front and industry occur?

We often expect the customer to come, bring a thick folder with the specifications and say: "do it!" But this is an illusion. It doesn't work that way. No one will write you a full-fledged specification if you yourself are not in the thick of things.

The only way to understand what the front really needs is to be close to the troops. To be in the combat zone, to communicate with the crews who return with combat results. To listen to them, to record every little thing. This is how real tactical requirements are born.

Actually, this is why our Special Purpose Center was created. We have people who work together with paratroopers, participate in operations, and there are engineers who can translate combat experience into the language of technology. The crew returns - they listen to them, write down what did not work, what needs to be improved. From this, the specifications are formed. And the next day, work begins.

We operate according to two schemes. The first is with our own efforts. We have laboratories, machines, experienced engineers. We manufacture parts ourselves, change the design, and test them in the field.

The second scheme is to involve industry. I call the plant director, and the chain is launched. Production capacities are turned on, modifications are made, and we immediately test the result.

It is very important that we are always ready to accept those who really want to help. We will accommodate, feed, and provide a site. But the most important thing is that we will check the competencies. So that there are no pointless conversations about "what do you have?" and "what do you need?" We set the task ourselves, and take responsibility for the correctness of the requirements.

Then there is joint modification, testing at the proving ground, and sometimes in combat conditions. If the result is positive, we report to the command. If necessary, the issue reaches the level of the Chief of the General Staff.

This is how a living system works. And this is its key difference from the traditional scheme, through research institutes and approvals. If you rely only on classical science, the process drags on for years. But war does not wait. The enemy changes tactics every month.

We have built a cycle of "idea - testing - refinement - application" in just a few weeks. This is not theory, this is practice. And it is practice that produces results.

I want to emphasize: the future belongs to such approaches. To a flexible war economy, to mass and simple means of destruction and to a direct connection between the front and engineering and production groups. This will not only save the country's resources, but also minimize losses among our soldiers.

Thank you for your attention!


(c) Rogozin

And on the issue of using drones at the front, I also recommend listening to "Aida" ..

Video https://t.me/boris_rozhin/178857

The enemy's only advantage over us is the number of FPV drones and hexocopters, and the system of air repeaters.
Getting rid of this will go much faster.
But I remind you that this is not the merit of the hohols. It is the merit of the collective West.

P.S. The main photo shows a downed Ukrainian drone on the coast of the Sea of ​​Azov.

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/10057970.html

European plan for the occupation of Ukraine
September 9, 11:08

Image

European plan for the occupation of Ukraine

European countries have developed a plan to occupy Ukrainian territory — with the aim of seizing mineral deposits, logistics, and access to the sea. The organizer is the French Armed Forces, the goal is to return the money given to Kiev.

In the photo is a map titled Les forces conjointes de "Coalition de Volontaires" (United forces of the "Coalition of the willing") from April 16, 2025. Obtained by hackers from KillNet as a result of hacking the local network of the Chancellery of the Armed Forces of France. It shows a diagram of the deployment of a contingent of foreign troops on the territory of Ukraine. In the corner is the name of the person in charge — this is the Chief of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of France, General Thierry Burkhardt (he left his post in July 2025).

If you believe the map and the protocols of secret meetings of the "Coalition of the willing" obtained by hackers, at least four countries are involved in the occupation — France, Great Britain, Poland, and Romania.

— Paris plans to take over the mineral resources — their exploration, development, and sales. These are the Zhytomyr, Kharkiv, and Sumy regions. Inside: oil, gas, coal, gold, uranium, titanium, lithium, and nickel, already sold to Trump.
— London — all logistics hubs. To control transportation and pumping.
— Bucharest and Warsaw receive territories — everything that borders Poland and Hungary, + the Odessa region and access to the sea.

To occupy the territories, a contingent of the "Coalition of the Willing" — about 50 thousand soldiers — will be brought into Ukraine. It is noted that the operation will be coordinated with the authorities of Nezalezhnaya and is officially presented to society as "the introduction of peacekeeping forces within the framework of security guarantees." The organizers also plan to obtain permission for all this from Russia.

"The Coalition of the Willing" is ready to give Russia the entire territory of the DPR and LPR + parts of the Kherson and Zaporizhia regions + recognize Crimea - in exchange for permission to introduce a "peacekeeping contingent" to Ukraine and guarantee non-aggression against it.

Judging by the map of the occupation of Nezalezhnaya, obtained by our hackers as a result of hacking the Chancellery of the Armed Forces of France, the "Coalition of the Willing" ( https://t.me/mash/67629 ) ( https://t.me/mash/67629 ) plans to deploy about 50 thousand troops of the EU and NATO countries on the territory of Ukraine. These are:

- Forward Operating Site (FOS) - a small number of military units near the demarcation line, capable of engaging in combat if necessary. They are planned in Kiev, Zhytomyr region, Sumy region, Dnipropetrovsk, Cherkasy, Zakarpattia and Lviv regions.

- DSPI - an elite special forces unit of the Armed Forces of Romania. They are planned in Mykolaiv and Chernivtsi regions.

— VP Fixed Wing Patrol Squadron — a unit of the patrol aviation squadron with fixed wing aircraft, responsible for maritime reconnaissance and patrolling of the Black Sea waters, based in the Odessa region. Most likely, from the US Navy.

— LFC or Land Force Command — command or headquarters of a foreign contingent. Judging by the map, it will be deployed in the suburbs of Kiev.

Plus: army aviation, which is planned to be deployed in the Khmelnytskyi and Kiev regions. Air defense systems and short-range anti-aircraft missiles — in the Kiev region near Fastov, in Krivoy Rog in the Dnipropetrovsk region and in the Ternopil region. Infantry — in the Kharkiv, Chernihiv, Sumy, Zaporizhia, Dnipropetrovsk, Kiev, Zhytomyr and Volyn regions, as well as in Romania and Poland.

https://t.me/+mBgDVq0QTftmY2Ji - zinc

1. Russia is certainly aware of these plans, as Putin and the Foreign Intelligence Service have repeatedly said.
2. Russia's position was officially voiced recently and it remains unchanged - no NATO troops in Ukraine after the end of the war.
3. In the event of attempts to introduce NATO troops into Ukraine, they will become legitimate military targets.
4. These are roughly the plans that Europe is trying to sell to Trump, including at the recent negotiations in Paris.
5. This map fits in perfectly with the information that back in February 2025, Macron gave the order to prepare for the deployment of a French brigade in Ukraine, which was to consist of career military personnel and soldiers of the Foreign Legion. The brigade's operational readiness date was indicated as April 2025. Apparently, the map also refers to these plans.

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/10060546.html

Like a thief in the night
September 9, 9:07

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The funniest news of the day is, of course, the flight of the former head of the Ukrainian Foreign Ministry Kuleba abroad. And with the comment "fled like a thief at night." So to speak, he personally described the situation in the concentration camp, into which the remaining territory of the former Ukrainian SSR, not controlled by Russia, was turned.

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No less funny is the anti-crisis about Kuleba returning later. We have already reached the stage when Zelensky's resigned accomplices are publicly distancing themselves from him, realizing that he has no future. Kuleba, of course, expects to resurface over time, when the government in Kyiv changes.

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/10060294.html

Google Translator

******

The Neo-Nazi Who Knew Too Much?
Kit Klarenberg
Sep 07, 2025

All my investigations are free to read, thanks to the enormous generosity of my readers. Independent journalism nonetheless requires investment, so if you value this article or any others, please consider sharing, or even becoming a paid subscriber. Your support is always gratefully received, and will never be forgotten. To buy me a coffee or two, please click this link.

On August 30th, Andriy Parubiy was shot dead in broad daylight in Lviv, Ukraine. A key figure in the foreign-fomented Maidan putsch and a prominent and influential politician locally for many years, he was mourned by a welter of British, European and US officials. Within three days, Parubiy’s murderer was arrested and pleaded guilty. Wholly unremorseful, the assassin claimed his actions were “revenge on the state” for his son having disappeared - presumed dead - while fighting in Bakhmut in 2023.

Yet, there is almost certainly more to this story than meets the eye. In the immediate aftermath of Parubiy’s slaying, claims emerged he had months earlier requested formal protection from the SBU, only to be rebuffed. This prompted some outcry, forcing Kiev’s security services to issue a statement explaining why Parubiy’s demand was refused. Curiously though, a press conference was subsequently convened at which the SBU and local law enforcement contradictorily denied he had ever asked any state authority to be safeguarded.

Whatever the truth of the matter, Parubiy took an enormous number of sensitive secrets to his grave, which a great many individuals and organisations have a significant interest in remaining concealed forever. A longstanding, outspoken ultranationalist, in 1991 he cofounded the openly Neo-Nazi Social-Nationalist Party - later rebranded Svoboda - and 1998 - 2004 ran its paramilitary wing, Patriot of Ukraine. The unit, like its parent political party, aggressively advocated insurrectionary violence, and espoused virulent, genocidal hatred of Russia and Russians.

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A Patriot of Ukraine leaflet, featuring Andriy Parubiy

Parubiy was a key figure in Kiev’s US-orchestrated 2004 Orange Revolution. His role in the Maidan coup and all that followed, which sent Ukraine hurtling towards war with Moscow, was considerably more outsized. After protests erupted in November 2013, Parubiy founded the “Maidan Self-Defense Force”. While ostensibly responsible for protecting purportedly peaceful demonstrators from riot police, the Force acted in close coordination with fascist paramilitary group Right Sector. The latter routinely engaged in incendiary, savage acts to provoke adverse responses from law enforcement.

The protests ended with elected President Viktor Yanukovych fleeing Ukraine on February 22nd 2014. This followed the sniper massacre of demonstrators in Kiev’s Freedom - now Maidan - Square. Government forces - perhaps with Russian assistance - were blamed for the bloodshed, triggering an avalanche of international condemnation, and threats from Paribuy’s Maidan Self-Defense to storm the President’s residence and take power by force if he didn’t resign. Yanukovych’s government was replaced by a fascist-riddled unelected administration, hand-picked by the US State Department’s Ukraine point-person Victoria Nuland.

Parubiy was appointed National Security and Defense Council chief, overseeing the launch and execution of Ukraine’s “Anti-Terrorist Operation”, a savage crackdown on the country’s Russian-speaking population. He also instituted moves to integrate the country into NATO’s defence and security structures, in advance of formal membership. While Parubiy initially retained his position under elected, far-right President Petro Poroshenko, he resigned in August 2014 after the Minsk Agreements intended to achieve peace in Donbass were signed, believing the dispute could only be resolved via “force”.

Parubiy’s bellicosity only intensified when the proxy war erupted in February 2022. In the conflict’s early days, he vigorously argued against negotiation with Moscow, and instead urged Kiev to “destroy the Russian Empire.” In the meantime, the Maidan massacre officially remained unsolved. This deficiency was so marked, suspicion abounded even among Ukrainian investigators official probes into the killings were being deliberately sabotaged. There were certainly many figures within the country who wanted the truth obscured and buried - Andriy Parubiy perhaps foremost among them.

‘Sacred Victims’

In October 2023, a Kiev court finally made a ruling on the Maidan massacre, in a trial that began in 2016. Of five police officers accused of the atrocity, one was acquitted outright, another sentenced to time served for alleged “abuse of power,” while three were convicted in absentia on 31 counts of murder and 44 counts of attempted murder. In effect, no Ukrainian official from the time has been in any way legally punished over the incident today, and the ruling acknowledged there was no evidence of any order to shoot protesters being given by any state official or agency.

Furthermore, the verdict conclusively ruled out involvement of Russian elements in the mass shooting - a conspiracy theory promoted heavily by pro-Maidan elements for many years, including Parubiy. Even more significantly, in at least 28 of the 128 shootings of protesters evaluated during the trial, the court found the “involvement of law enforcement officers has not been proven,” and the involvement of “other unknown persons” in the killings “cannot be ruled out.” Which is an extraordinary understatement.

The verdict noted “quite sufficient” evidence indicated “categorically” many shots were fired at protesters from Freedom Square’s Hotel Ukraina, which was “territory…not controlled by law enforcement agencies.” Unmentioned in the judgment, Hotel Ukraina was used as a headquarters by Svoboda throughout the Maidan unrest, its leaders - including Parubiy - coordinating chaos on the streets below. Many Svoboda operatives were based on the hotel’s 11th floor. Snipers in this area were observed by a BBC reporter.

However, copious witness evidence heard throughout the longrunning trial indicated Hotel Ukraina was not the only building or area from which protesters were fatally shot, proven to be occupied by opposition elements - not government forces - at the time. Of particular note was the testimony of Nazar Mukhachov, a Maidan Self-Defense commander and adviser to Parubiy. He gained access to government-collected evidence related to the massacre, and conducted his own investigation.

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Hotel Ukraina

The results of Mukhachov’s probe into the mass killing amply indicated “third forces” linked to the Maidan leadership were responsible for shooting both protesters and police, from sites - including Hotel Ukraina - occupied by opposition elements. He declared Parubiy et al required “sacred victims” in order to seize power. Mukhachov’s account is especially forceful and persuasive, given his Maidan Self-Defense position, the fact he continues to support the Maidan coup, and remains a committed ultranationalist.

Meanwhile, Stanyslav Shuliak, a riot police commander during the Maidan protests, recorded how numerous officers observed snipers shooting from Maidan-controlled locations. Resultantly, security services negotiated with Maidan Self-Defense representatives to investigate these areas, but Parubiy denied their requests. Even more damningly, numerous witnesses testified to having caught armed individuals known or suspected of shooting at protesters during the massacre. After capture, these individuals were handed over to Parubiy’s Maidan Self-Defense - only for them to be released without consequence or explanation, and never seen again.

‘A Corpse’

In the immediate aftermath of Parubiy’s death, popular Ukrainian news outlet Strana interviewed a number of his associates. Intriguingly, while most blamed the “hand of the Kremlin” for his liquidation, others “[did] not exclude the internal political background of the murder” - namely, Parubiy may have been liquidated due to “expectations of some future political upheaval in the country.” After all, as an anonymous source told Strana, “Andrei knew well how to arrange a Maidan.”

The threat of impending “political upheaval” in Ukraine is very real. Every day, Moscow’s forces relentlessly advance in Donbass. Vast casualties, desertion and failed recruitment drives mean Kiev’s manpower shortage is so dire women - some of them pregnant - now fill frontline combat roles. Europe has been reduced to buying weapons from Washington to equip their failing proxy, while Donald Trump has firmly vetoed NATO membership, or the return of lost territory. The war has unambiguously been lost for Kiev for some time.

Despite this, President Volodomyr Zelensky remains publicly committed to maximalist - and wholly unattainable - battlefield goals, including recapturing Crimea. He has strong grounds for maintaining this farcical facade publicly. In July, Zelensky’s attempt to take US-run “anti-corruption” bodies under his government’s direct control sparked mass protests, demands for his resignation from even his strongest Western supporters, and vitriolic condemnation from powerful elements within the country. Among the loudest voices was Andriy Biletsky, founder of the notorious Neo-Nazi Azov Battalion.

In an August interview with The Times, Biletsky repeatedly criticised Zelensky and rejected any negotiation with Russia, outlining a personal “vision for the future” for perpetual war with Moscow, in which Ukraine became a “permanently militarised society” and Europe’s “army and arsenal.” His comments were echoed mere days later in a comparable puff piece in the same outlet, in which popular YouTuber and former head of Right Sector’s Odessa branch Serhii Sternenko openly threatened the Ukrainian President’s life:

“If…Zelensky were to give any unconquered land away, he would be a corpse - politically, and then for real. It would be a bomb under our sovereignty. People would never accept it…At the end there will only be one victor, Russia or Ukraine…If the Russian empire continues to exist in this present form then it will always want to expand. Compromise is impossible. The struggle will be eternal until the moment Russia leaves Ukrainian land.”

Sternenko was centrally involved in the May 2014 Odessa massacre, which killed dozens of anti-Maidan activists and injured hundreds more. Another key Right Sector figure implicated in that hideous incident was Demyan Hanul, assassinated in March. The fascist paramilitary group described the slaughter at the time as a “bright page of our national history.” In advance, Andriy Parubiy and 500 members of his Maidan Self-Defense were deployed to the city, strongly suggesting the industrial scale incineration of Ukrainian Russian-speakers was a premeditated, intentional act of mass murder.

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The May 2nd 2014 Odessa massacre

In the Odessa massacre’s wake, prominent Svoboda representative Iryna Farion - whose room in Hotel Ukraina served as a sniper’s nest during the Maidan false flag massacre - cheered the killings, declaring “let the devils burn in hell…Bravo!” She herself was murdered in July 2024, despite being under intensive SBU surveillance. It’s certainly quite some coincidence that, at a time the walls are evidently closing in on Zelensky, three individuals who could testify most potently to the events that brought the Maidan regime into being are now dead.

https://www.kitklarenberg.com/p/the-neo ... w-too-much
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Re: Footnotes from the Ukrainian "Crisis"; New High-Points in Cynicism Part V

Post by blindpig » Wed Sep 10, 2025 12:18 pm

Persistence, rupture, and future of the Azov movement
Posted by @nsanzo ⋅ 10/09/2025

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In the context presented in the article on the "Azov Civil War," both the thesis of the continuity and the rupture of the Azov movement can be supported. On the one hand, the two current Azov-based Corps maintain the political and ideological characteristics inherited from the historical Azov; and therefore, they exist basically in the historical form in which they were constituted.

On the other hand, however, the conflict between Prokopenko's and Biletsky's units has led to the rupture of the movement as a single organized structure and shared leadership. As Korotaev recalls, talk of a united Azov movement has long been alien to reality, a palpable demonstration of which is sufficient to mention the harsh statement on Instagram by Serhiy Bevz, a member of the Third Brigade, who was an Azov leader : " Gentlemen! It's time to call things by their names, not with convenient euphemisms. Talk of a united Azov movement has long since ceased to bear any relation to reality. However painful it may be. However shameful it may be for those who have worthily completed their earthly journey ." A key aspect of this rupture, from the Third Brigade's perspective, is the delegitimization of Biletsky's leadership by Prokopenko's group.

This does not mean, however, that there is no future, certainly military, but perhaps also political, for the groups inheriting the Azov movement. The war has, in fact, placed them among the main reference points of the nationalist world that determines the functioning of the Ukrainian state. And it is important to remember that the Azov movement is, in essence, a project aimed at political-military control, from the perspective of the nationalist far right, of the Ukrainian state.

Along the way, various factors could be relevant to the movement, from President Zelensky's political interests to the approaching potential scenario of a final crisis for the Ukrainian state, to the influence of the current main supporter of Prokopenko's Brigade, the liberal nationalists or Sorosians (according to Korotaev, who uses this term to describe individuals and groups subsidized by scholarships and grants from abroad).

The relationship with the state establishment

The interests of Zelensky's group

In a militarized and war-torn Ukraine, one of Zelensky's successes has been his ability to prevent a single commander, even in cases like that of Valerii Zaluzhny, from becoming the sole authority for the entire army and National Guard. An article in the Ukrainian daily Strana on April 30 noted, in this regard, that the Zelensky establishment had managed to eliminate any relevant political subjectivity within the army and National Guard, particularly regarding Zaluzhny and his supporters (for example, the radically anti-Zelensky Mykhailo Zabrodsky).

In this context, however, the role of groups linked to the Azov movement is peculiar. In fact, the article mentioned two exceptions to this lack of subjectivity among political and military figures linked to the army and the National Guard: Denis Prokopenko and Andriy Biletsky. " Both now command corps, are heavily involved in the media, and, along with their subordinates, occasionally offer political assessments of what is happening, even criticisms, expressing indignation at the actions of the authorities and the military command ," Strana rightly noted.

The reason may be linked to the control, frequently pointed out in political circles, exercised over the two groups—largely for financial reasons—by Rinat Akhmetov's networks, and through him, by the President's Office itself. Some Ukrainian commentators go so far as to suggest that Akhmetov's support responds to an express order from Zelensky's political bloc to control the Azov movement and bring its forces closer to consolidating, after the war, the political projects serving the current president.

In this version, echoed by Korotaev, financial support for the Azov groups would therefore seek to establish them as a potential alternative to, in the future, bringing Azov parliamentarians into a possible pro-Zelensky coalition. The groups around Prokopenko and Biletsky could thus enter the Ukrainian Rada and help form a majority alongside the current president's party, taking support and votes away from Zelensky's main nationalist rivals, such as former army chief Zaluzhny and former president Poroshenko. In this way, the ongoing public relations campaign of groups linked to the Azov movement would be situated within a political framework that seeks both control and alliances with these groups against the other central bloc of military nationalism, the one intended to be formed around Zaluzhny. In this sense, the expected wave of Azovists in parliament would be intended to inject new blood into a possible future pro-Zelensky coalition.

Azov in a possible crisis of survival of the Ukrainian state

One of the consequences of the financial control exercised over Azov by oligarchs like Akhmetov is the limitation of the political autonomy of units close to the movement. Therefore, the rebellious potential of Azov groups against the current system, especially in a context of radical opposition to any possible solution to the war that Zelensky's bloc could accept, is limited by the prospects of occupying high positions in Ukrainian politics after an end to the war that the current president could lead.

Added to this are the tense relations between the Biletsky and Prokopenko groups, a circumstance that hinders a possible alliance between them to advance, even temporarily, along a joint political path, particularly if it means going against the major political-financial structure, directly linked to Zelensky's power structures. Furthermore, the prospect of a negotiated solution to the war is no longer a limitation for the Azov groups, provided it is based on the consolidation of the Ukrainian state as a nationalist state, clearly linked to the European Union and NATO and radically opposed to Russia.

All of this is functional, of course, to Bankova's aim of stimulating mutual competition between military commanders and protecting herself from sudden moves on her part. As Korotaev points out, the pro-Zelensky establishment prefers to see a divided and weakened Azov movement rather than a single, united one. At the same time, however, it seeks to control the degree of confrontation between the two Azov-based groups, as witnessed by the intervention in the Korynevych case (with the eventual blocking of Doc's Instagram account for Ukrainian users , the standard-bearer of the Third Brigade's harshest criticism of Prokopenko).

A more autonomous role for groups linked to the Azov movement could probably only materialize in the event of a crisis within the state or the Zelensky regime, with the risk of dissolution or disintegration of state institutions. In such a case, Biletsky and Prokopenko's control of Army or National Guard corps, with around 50,000 combatants, could prove decisive at times when the army, or factions within it, could truly determine the future of the state. In such circumstances, overcoming these disagreements, even temporarily, might be more feasible. However, in such a situation, the position of the nationalist, liberal, and pro-Western forces in Ukraine would be of great relevance.

The role of pro-Western liberals

In reality, it's not just Zelensky who pulls the strings around Azov. Korotaev thus highlights, in his analysis, the close relationship between the world of the 12th Azov Brigade and what he calls the Sorosian ecosystem of " journalists, politicians, and NGOs united around the slogans of 'anti-corruption,' 'democracy,' and 'Western values,'" and who "are directly dependent on Western support ," many of whom work for the Renaissance Foundation and its associated grantmaking networks.

The main explanation for this bloc's support for Azovism is Azov's role in Yanukovych's downfall. The subsequent control of the state by pro-Western forces is what allowed not only the victory of Ukrainian nationalism, but above all the victory of a Euromaidan that in the EU is equated with the triumph of the defenders of liberal and pro-European values: " The Azovites were the muscle with which the Sorosites destroyed their political enemies ," Korotaev affirms. And they remain so, since it is " the Azovites who die at the front, while the Sorosites tend to divide their time between Western capitals and Ukraine ." From this, he ends up concluding that this Sorosite group is, in reality, " as nationalist and bloodthirsty as the 'nationalists '" and that the paradox is that " today, Azov's followers support a ceasefire much more than Soros's followers in Ukraine ."

There are, however, some contradictions between the two blocs. On the one hand, the Sorosian world , a defender of Ukrainian nationalism and its war, stands out above all for its commitment to liberalism, distancing itself both from the "Russian" dimension of Azov's internal culture (with much of its militancy coming from the anti-leftist sectors of the predominantly Russian-speaking southeastern regions of Ukraine) and from its current "social democratic" deviations, especially with regard to the defense of industry and some local workers' groups.

On the other hand, the defense of certain key European values, such as feminism and the defense of LGBTQI+ rights, is also decisive in this liberal vision. And it is here that an apparent shift in the position of the Prokopenko Brigade emerges, facilitating rapprochement between Sorosians and that segment of the Azov movement. Thus, it is precisely in these pro-Western liberal circles that the Prokopenko group appears to have the most political support in today's Ukraine. But this evolution has only increased the opposition of the Azovites of Biletsky's Third Brigade to the deviationism of the 12th Azov Brigade.

An example of what this process means is the collaboration of Prokopenko's group, through one of its main ideologues, Vladyslav Dutchak, with the National University of Kyiv-Mohyla Academy (NaUKMA), a bastion of left-liberal nationalism in Ukraine, despite the intention of the entire Ukrainian ultra-nationalist right to boycott the university for its outright opposition to providing its facilities for a right-wing conference on military heroism. This is an action that, despite the right-wing orientation of the Azov Brigade, including Dutchak himself , is linked to a relativization of the group's formal nationalist right-wing orientation in order to become more acceptable within the context of Ukrainian national-liberalist groups.

The rapprochement between Prokopenko's group and the Sorosian factions has also been facilitated by their strong opposition to Korotkiy, and in part to Biletsky, perceived—rather extravagantly—as possible Russian agents. Furmanyuk's work was the main source of these accusations, according to Korotaev, who also mentions the influence of other strange Russian nationalist émigrés (perhaps in reference to the Third Brigade's relationship with groups like the RDK).

In the view of the promoter of Events in Ukraine , however, what was really at stake for the pro-Western group was to autonomize Azov from the oligarchs who supported them, particularly Avakov and Kolomoisky, or who might converge at specific moments, as seemed to be reflected at some point in the frequent appearances of Korotkij and Biletsky on television channels owned by the pro-Russian Viktor Medvedchuk. Limiting the power and autonomy of the empires of the oligarchs with Soviet behavior , potentially limiting Western objectives, is a central element in the political strategy of Soroshie's liberal nationalists in Ukraine. Korotaev recalls, in the pre-war context, Soroshie's fight against Kolomoisky for his support of the Minsk agreements and détente with Russia, once again placing Soroshie's national-liberalism on such an issue on the far right of the political spectrum.

The transformation of the Azov movement, in terms of its shift away from the ideological world dominated by Biletsky, can also be seen in Serhii Filimonov's crisis , with the creation of his Gonor (Honor) group. Korotaev links this movement to an alliance with the Sorosian liberals in Ukraine. If so, given Zaluzhny's role in Filimonov's rise to the leadership of the "Da Vinci Wolves," this action would, in part, position the former commander of the Armed Forces of Ukraine as a potential main figurehead for Sorosianism in Ukraine. Preventing Prokopenko from being drawn into this alliance would therefore be decisive for Zelensky's long-term political survival.

What leader for Azov?

Despite the advantages of Prokopenko's group, something seems to be changing, with Biletsky regaining a central role in the future. The most recent political-military dynamic seems to be playing in his favor in this regard. The leader of the current Third Corps of the Ukrainian Armed Forces is undoubtedly one of the political-military leaders who has best adapted to the dynamics of war, enjoying a clearly positive assessment among the Ukrainian public, especially those most committed to the conflict with Russia. There are several indicators in this regard.

Regarding the internal affairs of the Azov movement, Korotaev is right to point out that, in the Korynevych case, Biletsky has received support from the full range of civic/paramilitary organizations and Telegram channels that are part of the Azov family, including the Centuria group. In fact, outside of the 12th Azov Brigade, no major political figure within the nationalist movement has shown explicit support for the Prokopenko group in this conflict. Only a few liberal nationalists have been able to side with Redis in Facebook comments.

In his fight with Prokopenko, Biletsky also draws on his vast experience in the Ukrainian political landscape. Although he maintains strong connections with virtually all influential oligarchs, he appears to have overcome, according to Korotaev, his dependence on any particular oligarchic patron, freeing himself in particular from his strong dependence on Avakov and not limiting his current support to Akhmetov.

Biletsky is currently the subject of the most explicit support from President Zelensky's Office. While not signaling a complete break with Prokopenko, who enjoys the support of Interior Ministry structures, the presidential office's approach would be more pronounced in the case of the leader of the Third Brigade to counter Zaluzhny, using military nationalism, and this circumstance would allow Biletsky to develop his intense public relations campaign within Ukraine.

Soroza's opposition to Biletsky could also be nuanced. And it is precisely in the pro-Western media that he seems to be clearly becoming the new leader to support. His media presence in the West is clearly on the rise in 2025, with very little presence, however, of Prokopenko, who never seems to truly enjoy his potential media presence.

Elaborating on this argument, Korotaev argues that Biletsky's media rise throughout 2025 has been driven primarily by Western-funded publications, including those linked to one of Soros's business associates, Czech financier Tomas Fiala. The recent glorification of the Third Brigade in British media shows that this is not a one-time occurrence.

Biletsky's significant presence in media outlets owned by or associated with former President Petro Poroshenko also shows that, if necessary, the historic leader of Azov could decide whom to support: Zelensky, but perhaps also Poroshenko, or an alliance between the latter and the Zaluzhny faction. Korotaev is right to point out that Biletsky is not a mere puppet without any autonomy from the oligarchic structures in Ukraine. If he stands out for anything, it is for having an ultranationalist strategic project for this state. In this regard, he has the essential advantage of controlling one of the main corps of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, one of the bases of greatest real power in modern Ukraine. Hence, Korotaev emphasizes that one of Biletsky's main current objectives is to advance his military career to gain influence in the army. The prospect of promotion to general is very real for the current leader of the Third Corps.

In this direction, the options for resistance of the new First Azov Corps of the National Guard appear limited, which could explain the intensity of the Prokopenko group's campaign following the attack on Korynevych. According to Korotaev, this bloc of the Azov movement certainly enjoys significant support from prominent women activists and liberal academics, but this does not seem likely to help redirect the ranks of football hooligans and far-right nationalists who, at one time, contributed to the strength of the Azov movement and Redis itself.

Korotaev's opinion is that the struggle for control of units linked to the Azov movement will intensify and will eventually lead to the scenario best controlled by all participants in that movement: violence and score-settling. In this regard, Robeson quotes the commander of the Neptune Squadron of Prokopenko's Brigade to point out that, in response to the attack on Korynevych, the 12th Azov Brigade chose to follow the path of legality and justice, publicly denouncing the events, rather than succumbing to the temptation of revenge and outright retaliation, which would likely have ended in an armed confrontation between the political-military heirs of the Azov movement. Should similar actions occur, however, " it will not be a question of fractures, but of deaths, and then the point of no return will have been passed ," writes Robeson, summarizing the position of the Azov officer, linked to its most clearly neo-Nazi wing.

And if we enter into the logic of a true civil war within the Azov movement—a war that Moss Robeson would describe as the confrontation between Prokopenko's pragmatic neo-Nazis and Biletsky's intransigents—it would no longer be a matter of the minor violence practiced by young fans deprived of significant means, barely forged in the dialectic of fistfights in the stands of sports fields. It would, rather, be a true war between soldiers who have the best means for combat in Europe and who have acquired unparalleled experience in the craft of the relentless and ruthless destruction of enemy forces.

https://slavyangrad.es/2025/09/10/persi ... ento-azov/

Google Translator

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From Cassad's Telegram account:

Colonelcassad
The Poles said that they shot down several drones that flew into Poland from Ukrainian territory at night. An old scenario in a new way. During the war, such a story is repeated every few months. Mostly Ukrainian drones and anti-aircraft missiles fly in. Including victims among the Poles. But as usual, Russia will be blamed.

***

Colonelcassad
1:30
Statement by the Chief of the General Staff - First Deputy Minister of Defense of the Republic of Belarus, Major General Pavel Muraveiko :

" During the night mutual exchange of strikes by unmanned aerial vehicles between the Russian Federation and Ukraine, the air defense forces and assets of the Republic of Belarus constantly tracked unmanned aerial vehicles that had lost their course as a result of the impact of the parties' electronic warfare systems.

Some of the lost drones were destroyed by the air defense forces of our country over the territory of the republic.

Through the existing channels of interaction, from 11:00 p.m. on September 9 to 4:00 a.m. on September 10, our duty forces and assets exchanged information on the air and radar situation with the duty forces and assets of Poland and the Republic of Lithuania. Thus, notifying them of the approach of unknown aircraft to the territory of their countries.

This allowed the Polish side to promptly respond to the actions of the drones by raising its duty forces into the air.

In fairness, it should be noted that that the Polish side also informed the Belarusian combat units on duty about unidentified aircraft approaching the border of the Republic of Belarus from the territory of Ukraine.

The exchange of information on the air situation is an important component of ensuring security in the region as a whole and contributes to the establishment of confidence-building measures and strengthening of security.

The Republic of Belarus will continue to implement its obligations within the framework of the exchange of information on the air situation with the Republic of Poland and the Baltic countries."


https://t.me/s/boris_rozhin

Google Translator

*******

NYT Pushes Another Scare Report About Nuclear Sites In Ukraine

At least ones a week the New York Times produces a piece about this or that ghastly thing the Russians are allegedly doing in Ukraine.

Today's fairy tale is about the treat from attacks on nuclear facilities in Ukraine:

Nuclear Sites Dotted Across Ukraine Pose Threat of Radiation Disaster (archived) - NY Times

Each day of war risks a strike on sites that could scatter radioactive material. Officials say one laboratory near the front has been hit dozens of times.

The piece includes a picture of the weather protection shield around the wreaked No. 4 Chernobyl reactor.

The picture heading says:

In February of this year, a Russian exploding drone blew a hole in the stainless-steel confinement structure over the radioactive ruins of Chernobyl’s No. 4 reactor.

Another picture shows the Zaporizhia nuclear plant.

The heading.

The Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant in 2023. The structure has been struck repeatedly since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, but each time disaster was averted.

The text of the piece also mentions both incidents.

In February 2025, a Russian drone blew a hole in the stainless-steel confinement structure over the radioactive ruins of Chernobyl’s No. 4 reactor. While no radiation escaped, the strike broke the hermetic seal around the structure.
...
Ukrainian officials have accused Russia of intentionally endangering nuclear sites and raising the specter of a nuclear catastrophe that could contaminate a wide swath of the continent. The drone strike on Chernobyl came the night before the Munich Security Conference opened in Germany, timing that some Ukrainian and Western officials interpreted as a message from Moscow.


There is of course no evidence that a Russian drone hit the cover above the reactor and nobody has ever believed the Ukrainian story of a Russian strike.

Just yesterday Alexey Arestovich, a former advisor to President Zelenski, mentioned it in an interview.

He was asked about Sunday's alleged Russian Iskander strike against the Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine. Pictures of that incident showed a small fire at the top floor of the building:

A fire broke out in the Cabinet of Ministers (Ukrainian government) building in Kyiv after debris from a Russian drone fell.
Source: Kyiv Mayor Vitali Klitschko; Ukrainska Pravda sources in the government; Ukrainian Prime Minister Yuliia Svyrydenko

Quote from Klitschko: "A government building in the Pecherskyi district caught fire as a result of the likely downing of a UAV. Firefighters are working at the scene."

Details: According to Ukrainska Pravda sources in the government, there were no casualties.


A few hours later the story changed. The office of the president suddenly claimed that the building was hit by a direct and intentional strike with a Russian Iskander missile that failed to explode. The burning fuel from of missile was allegedly the cause of the fire:

On the night of September 7, the russian occupiers attacked the building of the Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine with a 9M727 Iskander cruise missile, which contained foreign components. However, the warhead of the missile did not work.

The Presidential Commissioner for Sanctions Policy of Ukraine Vladyslav Vlasiuk has reported this.

"Indeed, the Government building was hit by an Iskander 9M727 (cruise), or rather, its part. Fuel was burning. The warhead did not work, previously due to the missile being damaged. All the exact answers will be provided," he said.


That version of the event makes little sense. The war head of the Iskander-K cruise missile weighs 500 to 700 kilogram. Its impact alone, even without exploding, would have caused more damage than the pictures are showing. Besides of that the fire would certainly have cooked off the explosives which would have ripped the building apart.

Comments Arestovich (machine translation):

With all due respect to the building of the Cabinet of Ministers, which was built in the late 30s, and the meter-high walls, Iskander, even if it did not explode, would have destroyed more," said the ex-adviser to Bankova.
...
"We were shown the scenery. It says: "Let's punish them, they are on us, bastards, bastards, on the Cabinet of Ministers..." - said the former adviser to the Office of the President.
He also compared it to the drone strike on the Chernobyl nuclear power plant in February.

"So far, this reminds me of the attack of a treacherous, of course, Russian drone on the fourth unit of the Chernobyl nuclear power plant during the Munich conference," Arestovich said.

According to him, at that time, "no one reacted to this attack on the sidelines of the conference, and some even laughed out loud."


"No one believed it, there was no splash. Maybe they also tried to make some kind of splash out of this (blow to the Cabinet of Ministers - Ed. ). But no one got excited, " he added.

"No one believed it," but six month later the New York Times still wants to tell us that the Ukrainian public relation hole in Chernobyl cover was caused by a Russian drone strike.

As for the Zaporizhia nuclear plant strike the NYT writes:

The Zaporizhzhia plant has been struck repeatedly, but each time disaster was averted. In 2023, an explosion at a river dam drained the primary source of cooling water for the plant’s six reactors, forcing a pivot to a backup cooling pond. The site now relies on two electrical transmission lines, one of which is periodically severed by fighting.

There is no mentioning, none at all, that Russian forces are, since 2022, in control of that nuclear power plant and that the Ukrainian side is the one which has launched many attacks against it.

Another nuclear facility that has seen damage from multiple battles is the Institute for Physics and Technology in Kharkiv, Ukraine.

The NYT claims:

The Kharkiv physics institute, which helped design the first Soviet atomic bombs, agreed to stop working with weapons-grade uranium in 2010, sending its stockpile to Russia at the urging of the United States in the name of nuclear nonproliferation. It still stores extremely dangerous materials, like the uranium in the Neutron Source, enriched to be much more radioactive than the fuel used in a nuclear power plant. The institute does not disclose exactly how much uranium is on site.
...
After the 2022 invasion, scientists halted experiments and put the Neutron Source into a long-term shutdown mode. But the uranium remained, along with the danger of a release.


The U.S. Department of Energy, which has paid for building the Neutron Source Facility, disagrees with the scary NYT qualification. Its description of the facility notes:

The NSF consists of a subcritical assembly using low enriched uranium (LEU) fuel driven with an electron accelerator. The NSF target design utilizes tungsten or natural uranium for producing neutrons through photonuclear reactions using 100-MeV electrons..

The Technical Report on the NSF shows that anything nuclear in it is rather small and well protected. It is doubtful that it, even when hit, would pose any serious danger to people or the environment.

But it sounds scary - and that is what such reporting is all about.

Posted by b on September 9, 2025 at 14:11 UTC | Permalink

https://www.moonofalabama.org/2025/09/n ... .html#more

******

Spy wars: Cannabis, gambling, Dagestan

Masha and the Bear versus the Atlanticists. NABU vs SBU. Death to the escapees, historical inquisition.

Events in Ukraine
Sep 08, 2025

A desperate battle between rival Ukrainian intelligence and anti-corruption agencies, who are accusing each other of working for Russia and massive corruption.

What this has to do with Zelensky’s battle with the Sorosite opposition, online gambling companies active in the Russia market, hemp exports to Russian Dagestan, the organized crime kingpin ‘Umka’, and cybersecurity spooks.

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Meanwhile, the former head of Transparency International calls for the security services to ban that most nefarious of Russian psyop technologies, the cartoon Masha and the Bear.

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The ultranationalist Ukrainian Institute of National Memory also now has the power to initial legal charges against those who ‘influence public opinion in Ukraine or other countries to deny Ukraine’s statehood’. However, the nationalists who pushed through the law worry that their time to implement such legislation is limited, since their beloved war may soon end.

And once again, the third of September… Today we’ll be taking a look at some of the latest Events in Ukraine.

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More of the same
Before we get to the political intrigues, a snapshot of life for the everyman. Bullets for escapees, demographic collapse, and violent veterans on the rampage at the rear.

On September 2, a draft-age man was shot trying to escape Ukraine to Moldova. Border patrol apparently shot him in the back with an AK-74 while trying to flee to Moldova. On September 3, the State Bureau of Investigations confirmed the incident, stating that it was looking into the matter. It certainly hasn’t been the first.

https://eventsinukraine.substack.com/p/ ... g-dagestan

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"Russian Drones" in Poland
September 10, 10:59

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Post from 09/08/2025 on the channel "Cartel" with a warning about the preparation of a provocation with the sending of "pseudo-Russian" UAVs to the West.

In fact, the plan was already implemented on September 10.

Tusk said that the drones that flew into Poland were Russian (no one doubted it). There were no casualties or injured, the roof of one house was damaged. on which the debris fell.

1. An air defense missile hit the Cabinet of Ministers building in Kiev. Check.
2. A bloody provocation like Bucha in Yarovaya. Check.
3. Another "raid of Russian drones on Poland". Check.
4. Give us money. Give us air defense. Introduce sanctions.

In general, the usual soup set. Never underestimate the predictability of stupidity.

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/10062772.html

Google Translator

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The Evolution of Marta Havryshko

Stories from the laboratory of Ukraine's Banderization
Moss Robeson
Sep 09, 2025

How did Marta Havryshko, a historian from the heartland of Ukrainian nationalism, become one of the most outspoken critics of the far-right in Ukraine? For years, she worked as a librarian at 1 Stepan Bandera Street in Lviv. This was the Center for Research of the Liberation Movement, a pivotal OUN-B front group that functioned as the laboratory of Ukraine’s “Banderization.” I’m so honored to have been able to discuss this with her:



https://banderalobby.substack.com/p/the ... -havryshko

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Poland to Invoke NATO Article 4 Over Russian Drones in Its Airspace
Posted on September 10, 2025 by Yves Smith

We are very much in fog of narrative terrain. There is no reason for Russia to go and poke Poland given that it is handily prevailing on the battlefield in Ukraine, and contrary to European paranoia, does not have plans to march to Paris. So it seems difficult to believe that the purported incursion of Russian drones into Poland was intentional. However, I have been checking official Russian news sources since the story broke a few hours ago. The silence so far suggests their might be something to the story

The latest Twitter reports indicate that the facts are correct, that Russian drones did enter Ukraine, but that it was accidental and that they were surveillance drones, not payload drones:

🇷🇺🇧🇾🇵🇱 DRONES DRIFTED OFF COURSE DUE TO ELECTRONIC WARFARE.

Poland and Belarus cooperated and exchanged information about drones that went off course into their territory!

Official statement from the Belarusian Ministry of Defense regarding the air defense operations last


But even with Belarus saying it alerted Poland to what was up, Poland has said it is invoking NATO’s Article 4. Recall that this is actually a weak obligation; member statesmerely need to consider whether or not to act based the treat report. Its text:

The Parties will consult together whenever, in the opinion of any of them, the territorial integrity, political independence or security of any of the Parties is threatened.

Also note, that as we have pointed out, NATO professed to be a consensus-based organization. There are no rules, such as for the EU, as to which issues require a unanimous vote versus a qualified majority. There does not even seem to be a formal voting process.

However, in theory, an Article 4 process could then lead to the invocation of Article 5:

The Parties agree that an armed attack against one or more of them in Europe or North America shall be considered an attack against them all and consequently they agree that, if such an armed attack occurs, each of them, in exercise of the right of individual or collective self-defence recognised by Article 51 of the Charter of the United Nations, will assist the Party or Parties so attacked by taking forthwith, individually and in concert with the other Parties, such action as it deems necessary, including the use of armed force, to restore and maintain the security of the North Atlantic area.

Any such armed attack and all measures taken as a result thereof shall immediately be reported to the Security Council. Such measures shall be terminated when the Security Council has taken the measures necessary to restore and maintain international peace and security.

It is hard to see, if the reports above are correct, that surveillance drones entering Poland amounts to an armed attack. But the NATO warmongers are a creative bunch and very eager to get the US more involved. And as you will soon see, some NATOO members did invoke Article 4 when the Special Military Operation started, and that had no practical impact.

Note also that as we report in Links that Trump is trying to get Europeans to impose secondary sanctions on India and China over their imports of Russian fuel. It does not seem like a stretch that the Administration will use the Poland incident to press hard for them to comply.

Now to the press updates. From Newsweek:

Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk said his country would formally request the invocation of NATO’s Article 4 in response to the violation of his country’s airspace by 19 Russian drones, some of which were shot down…

Unlike Article 5’s collective defense element, NATO’s Article 4 does not trigger military action, but initiates a formal alliance discussion when one member considers its territorial integrity or security is threatened.

Since NATO was founded in 1949, Article 4 has been invoked only a handful of times—most notably by Eastern European members after Moscow’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

And for more detail about the underlying event, from BBC. Note its headline says 19 drones entered and 4 were brought down; a live blog entry has Zelensky claiming 25. A key bit is even normally Russia-friendly Viktor Orban of Hungary as criticizing the drone entry:

French President Emmanuel Macron describes the incursion as “simply unacceptable”, adding that he will soon meet Nato Secretary General Mark Rutte.

The European Council’s president, Antonio Costa, says Europe is increasing investment in its defence following Russia’s “reckless” actions. “Peace and security in Europe cannot be taken for granted,” he adds

Viktor Orbán, Hungary’s Prime Minster, calls the air incursion “unacceptable”. Orbán is the only EU leader to have kept close ties to the Kremlin following its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022.

Petr Fiala, the Czech prime minster, says it’s “hard to believe” that last night’s Russian drone attack on Poland was a coincidence. He accuses Russia of “systematically probing to see how far it can go”.

Alexander Stubb, Finland’s president, claims that Russia “seeks escalation” and “carries responsibility” for violating Poland’s air space.

Latvian President Edgars Rinkēvičs also expresses his full support and solidarity to Ukraine, emphasising that allies “must be working together”.

BBC took pains in its headline to depict the drones as having entered Poland; many other stories are depicting the incident as an attack. For instance, from India’s Economic Times in Has World War III started with Russia opening a new front: what happens if Poland, a NATO country is attacked:

As geopolitical tensions escalate amid ongoing conflict in Eastern Europe, concerns have surged globally about whether Russia opening a new military front could mark the beginning of World War III. Central to this concept is the status of Poland, a member state of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), and US President Donald Trump’s stand on Europe’s security and defense.

The possibility of Russia attacking Polish territory brings to attention–NATO’s most critical collective defense clause, Article 5 of the treaty, and raises questions about the alliance’s response and global security outcomes.

The recent escalation is linked directly to Russia’s intensified aerial offensive on Ukraine, which has spilled over into Polish airspace in a direct provocation. On September 9, 2025, Poland reported multiple incursions by Russian drones that entered its airspace. In response, Poland scrambled its own and NATO allied aircraft, and deployed ground-based air defenses to intercept these drones.

Bloomberg’s formulation is Poland Shoots Down Russian Drones After Airspace Violation. The Wall Street Journal has NATO Planes Shoot Down Russian Drones Inside Poland as the third piece in its left column. The Financial Times has Nato forces shoot down Russian drones over Poland as its lead story. However, the pink paper’s text was more saber-rattling:

Nato fighter jets have shot down Russian drones over Polish airspace for the first time, after what Warsaw described as an “unprecedented violation” of its territory that led it to trigger emergency consultations in the alliance.

The operation in the early hours of Wednesday, during a massive Russian attack on Ukraine, involved Dutch and Polish fighter jets, while German Patriot missiles were put on alert and an Italian early warning aircraft provided support.

The alliance said it was “committed to defending every kilometre of Nato territory, including our airspace”.

It marks the most serious clash between Russia and the US-led military alliance since the start of Moscow’s full-blown war against Ukraine in February 2022.

Sky is a tad cautious. The answer to its headline, The pivotal question for NATO as it decides how to respond after Russian drones violate Polish airspace, is “What was Russia’s intent?”

Axios, which sometimes gets an early bead development in this Administration, does not have a story up yet. The lead piece at the Washington Post is Poland says it shot down Russian drones that violated its airspace. From the top of that account:

Polish forces shot down Russian drones that had violated its airspace while attacking targets in Ukraine, Poland’s military said Wednesday.

The Russian action amounts to an unprecedented violation of Polish airspace and posed “a real threat” to Polish citizens, the Polish military’s Operational Command said in a statement.

Polish aircraft were scrambled, according to a statement from Polish Defense Minister Wladyslaw Kosiniak-Kamysz. The country’s territorial defense forces were activated to conduct ground searches for the downed drones, he added. Polish police said they had found a damaged drone in eastern Poland.

Interestingly, DW has moderated its headline. Google shows the story first running under Poland hits drones in its airspace as Russia attacks Ukraine; when you click through, you now get Poland calls NATO meeting after downing Russian drones. However, the summary at the top still depicts the drone entry as an attack:

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This update is from about an hour and a half before post launch time:

Poland summons Russian envoy over drone violations

Poland has summoned Russia’s top diplomat in Warsaw after saying it had downed several Russian drones that crossed into its airspace overnight.

Andrei Ordash, Moscow’s charge d’affaires, told Russian state news agency RIA Novosti he had been called to the Polish Foreign Ministry for a noon meeting. He said Warsaw had not yet presented evidence that the drones came from Russia.

As of that time, TASS merely had a big photo of Polish President Donald Tusk and a banner over it but no story; RT does have some information about the Russian version of events, which is in line with what Lord Bebo picked up from the Belarus broadcast:

According to Tusk, the Polish military detected 19 separate violations of its airspace over seven hours, with at least three and possibly four drones downed.

He claimed the aircraft came from Belarus rather than Ukraine, and characterized the incident as a Russian “provocation.”

The Belarusian military earlier reported having given their Polish counterparts early warning that some drones used by Ukrainian and Russian forces for mutual attacks “lost their track as a result of the impact of the parties’ electronic warfare assets.”

“This allowed the Polish side to respond promptly to the actions of the drones by scrambling their forces on duty,” said General Pavel Muraveiko, the chief of the general staff of Belarus.

The general added that some of the stray aircraft had been intercepted by Belarusian air defenses. He stressed that the exchanges with Poland were part of regular communications about incoming threats, with the Polish side regularly informing officials in Belarus about aircraft detected in Ukrainian airspace.

The fact of press equivocation, despite the very loud denunciations from European leaders, suggests cooler heads will prevail, particularly since even if they wanted to Do Something, they are confronted with limited means. Stay tuned.

https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2025/09 ... space.html
"There is great chaos under heaven; the situation is excellent."

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Re: Footnotes from the Ukrainian "Crisis"; New High-Points in Cynicism Part V

Post by blindpig » Thu Sep 11, 2025 12:17 pm

Another step towards the abyss
Posted by @nsanzo ⋅ 11/09/2025

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Since February 2022, avoiding direct confrontation between major powers has been one of the few consensuses that survived the continental rupture and the return to a certain political Cold War situation between Russia and the United States, amid a proxy war in which, little by little, steps were taken toward increasing danger. This consensus entailed keeping the war contained within Ukrainian territory in the first months after the Russian invasion and in Ukraine and Russia when the West began to support, instigate, and arm Ukrainian attacks across the border. The counterpart for Russia, which did not respond with retaliation even against countries that supplied kyiv with Western missiles to attack targets in Russian regions, was to limit the direct involvement of NATO member states. In other words, Russia would be limited to attacking only Ukrainian territory and, in return, would face Western weapons of increasing caliber and ever-increasing quantities, but always manned by Ukrainian soldiers. Therefore, it could not say it was fighting against all of NATO, but rather a proxy war against the Alliance through its Ukrainian subsidiary army.

Judging by the headlines, statements, and analyses that could be read yesterday in the media and on social media, that consensus was broken on Tuesday night when Russian drones invaded Polish airspace, triggering a rapid chain of reactions whose implications will be seen in the future, but which may resemble the demands that the hawks have made in previous episodes considered escalatory. "The war is going to last a long time," Foreign Minister Merz had stated following one of last week's bombings, not only expressing his opinion but, fundamentally, Europe's desire to maintain or increase assistance to Ukraine until a more unfavorable agreement for Russia is secured than the one that would emerge from negotiations under the current circumstances. As on those occasions, the reaction of the various actors has been to reaffirm preconceived opinions and entrench themselves in positions that have only led to the prolongation of the war, with the resulting consequences for the population living in areas near the front lines.

Although in war, facts are always disputed and certainties are scarce, what currently appears proven is limited to information claiming that around twenty Russian drones crossed Polish airspace as part of one of the many airstrikes that have occurred in recent days in Russia and Ukraine. Of these drones, various statements claim that at least three or four were shot down. The rest, according to Donald Tusk, were diverted using electronic warfare tools. These are all the data that can be corroborated at this time, in which we have already moved from facts to assessments based on the political needs of the different actors.

Yesterday, Russia insisted that it had never intended to attack Polish territory, consistent with the approach of avoiding the risk of direct confrontation with the Alliance that has been the basis of the scant Russia-US diplomacy that has survived the Biden era. Without waiting for a Russian reaction, whose words are taken into account only to insist that the Kremlin does not want peace, they expressed, depending on their radicalism, opinions that ranged from defending current militarization to fearing a future Russian attack on NATO.

The twenty Russian drones that crossed Polish airspace caused no casualties or significant material damage, which was mainly limited to the aircraft shot down by the Polish army and its NATO allies. Some of the drones downed in Poland were not even drones with explosive payloads, but decoys launched alongside the swarms to saturate air defenses and increase the effectiveness of the missiles. Throughout yesterday, two versions were floated that did not imply a will to attack, something evident given the precedent of the last three years: that of a detour due to electronic warfare in and around Ukraine, and that of an inadvertent error. The simplest is that Poland is located on the border, and it's not difficult for missiles to penetrate neighboring airspace—something that has happened on certain occasions in Moldova and Romania, at which point some analysts have tried to present an anecdote as a deliberate attack—in the direction of their target, a possible argument to explain those missiles that have been shot down near the border. The Belarusian argument, which contrasts with Russia's relative silence, points to electronic warfare to disprove the idea of ​​a deliberate attack, which not even the Polish military maintains, although its political authorities do. “Poland said early Wednesday that several Russian drones entered and were shot down on its territory with the help of NATO allies, describing the incident as an ‘act of aggression’ carried out during a wave of Russian attacks against Ukraine,” AP wrote yesterday, quoting Donald Tusk, a leading figure in the group that has sought to use the incident to justify further rearmament and a tougher stance against Russia.

"We support our NATO allies against these airspace violations and will defend every inch of NATO territory," stated the US ambassador to NATO, with words that, on the one hand, show support for his allies, but in no way commit Washington, since it is clear that, despite any criticism that may be leveled, there has been no attack on the Western Alliance. In his usual manner of speaking, without suggesting exactly what the United States is going to do, Donald Trump asked yesterday afternoon, more than twelve hours after the events, "what is Russia doing flying drones through Polish airspace?" To which he added, "here we go," which can mean many things, from a prelude to greater involvement of Western countries in the war or increased sanctions to a simple comment to reaffirm that this is a bad war that must end.

The outcome of Poland's defense operation cannot be considered a great success for NATO, which deployed its aircraft to carry out, at a much more costly pace, interceptions that would have been simple with a simple air defense system. In response to the Iranian-designed drones—at least some of them mere decoys—that Western countries mocked in 2022, the participation of Poland, the Netherlands, Italy, and Germany was necessary. This deployment, evidently excessive, is already being used as an argument in favor of militarization.

“Russia is deliberately expanding its aggression, posing an ever-increasing threat to Europe. The swarm of drones over Polish territory is further proof of this, as is its threatening rhetoric toward NATO's eastern flank. The world must stop the aggressor: break its war economy and its ability to destroy and kill,” wrote Lithuanian President Gitanas Nauseda, echoing the Baltic view, which tends to limit itself to demanding more NATO and more pressure against Russia. “The best next step is to strengthen Ukraine's air defenses with the help of a coalition of willing countries and then move on to practical planning for a no-fly zone over at least part of Ukraine,” added Marko Mihkelson, chairman of the Estonian Parliament's Foreign Affairs Committee, one of the leaders of the camp that openly wants to intervene militarily in the common war against Russia.

Sometimes journalists, who are expected to maintain a professional attitude and lack direct involvement, display opinions as radical as those of political hawks. “The impact of ten Russian heavy drones in Poland is not a navigational error. It is Putin's decision to violate NATO's Article 5 to test the response and see how much more he can achieve,” wrote, for example, The Wall Street Journal correspondent Yaroslav Trofimov, who also wondered, “How much of a house must be destroyed for this to be considered an attack rather than a provocation ?” “Putin has launched a war against Poland, a NATO member country. What is NATO going to do?” added Anders Åslund, the leader of the group, who makes no secret of his desire to use this dangerous but casualty-free incident to move toward all-out war without worrying about the possibility of a direct confrontation between nuclear powers. “Dear President Trump, say after me: 'Russia wouldn't have dared to attack NATO member Poland with drones if Joe Biden had still been president,'” Åslund added, thus joining another trend that spread on social media yesterday: shaming Trump, whose rhetoric on the war in Ukraine includes asserting that only he will be able to achieve peace because, being so feared, he is also respected by the Kremlin. Any opportunity is good to use war, including incidents that bring the continent one step closer to disaster, against political enemies.

“This morning's barbaric attack against Ukraine and the unprecedented and atrocious violation of Polish and NATO airspace by Russian drones are deeply worrying,” wrote British Labour Prime Minister Keir Starmer in a message that contrasted with the one published just hours earlier. Despite the intelligence and military deployment and the worrying nature of the step towards the abyss it represents, the transit through Polish airspace of some twenty Russian drones was not the most serious violation of a country's sovereignty or international law. Hours earlier, and with the knowledge of the United States, Israel had attacked a Hamas headquarters in the Qatari capital of Doha in an attempt to assassinate its opponent's negotiating team. The bombing caused at least five fatalities. “I condemn Israel's attacks in Doha, which violate Qatar's sovereignty and threaten further escalation throughout the region. The priority must be an immediate ceasefire, the release of the hostages, and a massive increase in aid to Gaza. This is the only solution to achieving a lasting peace,” Starmer wrote in much more neutral and noticeably less heated terms than when referring to the Russian drones. Taking advantage of the situation, the United Kingdom, one of the sponsors of the idea of ​​the Coalition of the Willing, an armed mission of NATO countries to be sent to Ukraine in the event of a ceasefire, has given the order to “consider strengthening Polish airspace.”

In Poland, the official narrative focused on exaggerating the danger, seeking political gain, and advancing the militarization of the continent. “I address all those who have different points of view, including geopolitical ones. Now that Russia's aggressive intentions and Belarus's daily practices no longer raise any doubts, we should not look for the enemy in the West. There is no need! We have a real enemy in the East. Our common task is the full mobilization of the West so that Poland does not find itself in a situation where real connections exist only on paper. Today, the full mobilization of NATO members is necessary, and they must stop staying in their comfort zones. 'We are far from the eastern border and this is not our war'—no! This is a shared responsibility of NATO, all Allies, and the entire European Union. These are the first signs, but we will make the most of them, we will make use of all possible obligations to our Allies. These first signs show that NATO leaders fully understand that this is their problem too,” Donald Tusk stated in the Polish Parliament.

As on previous occasions, two loose verses have distanced themselves from the single European thought. “The violation of the airspace of sovereign Poland, our neighbor and partner in the EU and NATO, is a serious incident that could have far-reaching consequences. Therefore, it is essential to objectively determine whether it was intentional or accidental, and under whose control the drones were operating. I express my solidarity with Poland and offer my cooperation in finding all the necessary answers. I will not be provoked by political maneuvering or anti-government or anti-Slovak means,” wrote Robert Fico, who took aim at his political enemies, recalling that “the violation of Polish airspace and the Polish armed forces' response capacity reflect harshly on the Slovak opposition politicians, who handed over Slovakia's entire air defense system to Ukraine for free and without an adequate replacement. Instead of admitting their guilt for this act of military sabotage against Slovakia, they complain like crazy in the media and demonstrate that they are only capable of leading Slovakia to disaster.” His Hungarian counterpart, for his part, reaffirmed his insistence that peace is necessary. “Hungary stands in full solidarity with Poland following the recent drone incident. The violation of Poland's territorial integrity is unacceptable. The incident demonstrates that our policy of seeking peace in the war between Russia and Ukraine is reasonable and rational. Living in the shadow of war carries risks and dangers. It's time to stop it!” wrote Viktor Orbán to reaffirm his support for Donald Trump. But perhaps the simplest argument that Russian drones in Poland were not a form of deliberate aggression against a NATO country is the words of Ursula von der Leyen, who described the events as “reckless and unprecedented,” a moderate assessment compared to those who want to use Russia's actions—whether intentional or a simple mistake—to draw the continent closer to an even tougher war.

After all, not even Poland, the affected country whose government claims to have been attacked, has used Article V of NATO's collective security to call on its allies to defend themselves against aggression, but rather the much more moderate Article IV, which states that "the Parties shall consult each other when, in the judgment of either of them, the territorial integrity, political independence, or security of any of the Parties is threatened." One step below requiring allies to participate militarily in its defense, Article IV can be considered a military alliance's equivalent of the usual call for consultations that follows a diplomatic incident. In practice, its use is intended to be the same as the reaction to other bombings: to insist on the military option in Ukraine and militarization in Europe.

https://slavyangrad.es/2025/09/11/otro- ... el-abismo/

Google Translator

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From Cassad's telegram account:

Forwarded from
War on fakes
Fake: As a result of the GUR operation, a ship of the Black Sea Fleet was hit, Ukrainian Telegram channels claim.

Truth: The Ukrainians attacked not a military ship, but a civilian vessel.

The enemy itself claims in its publications that the damaged object belongs to the MPSV07 project. These are multifunctional icebreaker-class emergency rescue vessels . They are designed for emergency rescue duty, search, rescue and evacuation of ships and people in distress, extinguishing fires on floating and coastal objects, eliminating emergency oil spills, and performing deep-sea underwater technical work.

Even in the footage published by the GUR as evidence, the inscription "Rescuer" is visible on board.

Naturally, the vessel has nothing to do with the Black Sea Fleet - it is operated by the "Marine Rescue Service". With this attack, the enemy once again demonstrated the terrorist nature of the Kiev regime and demonstrated the indiscriminate nature of its strikes.

***

Colonelcassad
After Russian strikes on Ukraine's energy infrastructure, supplies of Azerbaijani gas from Romania almost completely ceased. In the summer, the Russian Armed Forces carried out a number of precise strikes on oil refineries (including those connected to Azerbaijan) and stations responsible for pumping gas. In fact, Aliyev's hysterics were also connected with the fact that they began to systematically beat him with the ruble, which Aliyev, understandably, did not like very much, since instead of squabbling in the press, they smiled sweetly at him and deprived him of profits.

***

Colonelcassad
Statement by the Russian Foreign Ministry in connection with the accusations against Russia from Poland

In connection with the accusations brought against the Russian Federation of deliberate violation of the airspace of the Republic of Poland by Russian unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) during the high-precision combined strike on the military infrastructure facilities of the Kiev regime tonight, we draw attention to the corresponding statement by the Russian Ministry of Defense dated September 10, 2025.

The Defense Ministry unequivocally confirmed that there were no planned targets for destruction on the territory of the Republic of Poland, and the flight range of the UAVs used in the aforementioned disabling of Ukrainian military-industrial complex enterprises, which, according to Warsaw, allegedly crossed the Polish border, does not exceed 700 kilometers. These specific facts completely debunk the myths once again spread by Poland to further escalate the Ukrainian crisis.

NATO Secretary General M. Rutte was forced to confirm this. Speaking following the meeting of the NATO Council on Article 4 of the North Atlantic Treaty, held at Poland's request, he was unable to answer the question about the presence of "evidence" and indicated that "the investigation into what happened is ongoing."

Despite the obvious groundlessness of the insinuations coming from Warsaw, in order to fully clarify what happened for all parties interested in preventing further escalation of the situation, the Russian Defense Ministry is ready to hold consultations on this topic with the Polish Defense Ministry. The Russian Foreign Ministry, for its part, is also ready to join this work.


https://t.me/s/boris_rozhin

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******

No explosives were found.
September 10, 20:58

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The Polish prosecutor's office said that none of the drones that flew into Poland contained explosives. They say that they found the remains of 12 drones, but none of them contained explosives. The cruelty of Putin's aggression is immediately apparent.

This is an obvious provocation, which is sewn with white thread, which was announced in advance and which produces the most ridiculous impression.

Statement ( https://mid.ru/ru/foreign_policy/news/2046067/ ) of the Russian Foreign Ministry in connection with the accusations against Russia from Poland

In connection with the accusations brought against the Russian Federation of deliberate violation of the airspace of the Republic of Poland by Russian unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) during the high-precision combined strike on military infrastructure facilities of the Kiev regime tonight, we draw attention to the corresponding statement of the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation dated September 10, 2025.

The Defense Ministry unequivocally confirmed that there were no plans to hit objects on the territory of the Republic of Poland, and the flight range of the UAVs used in the aforementioned disabling of Ukrainian military-industrial complex enterprises, which, according to Warsaw, allegedly crossed the Polish border, does not exceed 700 kilometers. These specific facts completely debunk the myths that Poland is once again spreading to further escalate the Ukrainian crisis.

NATO Secretary General M. Rutte was forced to confirm this. Speaking following the meeting of the NATO Council on Article 4 of the North Atlantic Treaty, held at Poland’s request, he could not answer the question about the presence of “evidence” and indicated that “the investigation into what happened is ongoing.”

Despite the obvious inconsistency of Warsaw’s insinuations, in order to fully clarify what happened for all parties interested in preventing further escalation of the situation, the Russian Ministry of Defense is ready to hold consultations on this topic with the Ministry of Defense of the Republic of Poland. The Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, for its part, is also ready to join this work.

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/10064117.html

Big difference
September 10, 14:57

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A multiple difference in the number of Russian drones launched in Ukraine in 2025 compared to 2024. In July 2024, 528 drones were launched. In July 2025, 6,495 drones were launched.

By the end of August-beginning of September, the Russian Federation reached the rate of 500+ drones. In the fall of 2025, it should reach the rate of up to 1,000 drones per day. The flywheel of the military-industrial complex is spinning, the necessary products are becoming more and more. And most importantly, even this is far from the limit of the possible. The peak is yet to come. This is already certainly having an impact on the situation on the front line.

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/10063132.html

Google Translator

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‘Russian’ drones in Polish airspace: What we know so far

Moscow has rejected Warsaw’s accusation that it committed an “act of aggression” against the NATO state
‘Russian’ drones in Polish airspace: What we know so far

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Police and Military Police secure parts of a damaged UAV shot down by Polish authorities at a site in Wohyn, Poland, Wednesday, Sept. 10, 2025. © AP Photo

The Russian military has suggested consultations with its Polish counterparts, after being accused by Warsaw of violating the country’s airspace with drones. The Defense Ministry in Moscow neither confirmed nor denied such violations, but implied that whatever aircraft crossed the border were not launched from Russia.

Multiple Western officials have already accused Moscow of staging a reckless provocation and hailed NATO’s joint response.

Russia and Ukraine have been conducting long-range drone and missile strikes against each other’s territory.

What the Russian MOD says

The Russian ministry’s statement stressed that during its overnight operations, “no targets were planned for strikes in the Polish territory,” according to a statement.

“The maximum range of Russian drones that allegedly crossed the Polish border is less than 700km. Nevertheless, we are ready to conduct consultations on the issue with the Polish Defense Ministry.”

The military said Russian forces successfully hit multiple arms production facilities in Western Ukraine.

What Poland claims

The Polish Defense Ministry accused Russia of staging an “act of aggression” by flying its drones into Polish airspace, some of which it said were successfully intercepted, calling the situation “unprecedented.”

Prime Minister Donald Tusk told lawmakers at least 19 separate violations took place over seven hours, with up to four aircraft downed by Polish forces. He said the incident stood out due to the number of drones and their arrival from Belarusian rather than Ukrainian airspace.

Tusk noted that the incursion posed no threat to Polish airports, some of which were shut down as the military was responding.

Warsaw has asked for formal consultations with other NATO states under Article 4 of the bloc’s founding treaty.

Poland has yet to provide evidence to support the drones’ identification as Russian, though some local media have published purported images of debris from one of them.

EU declares solidarity

Multiple Western officials expressed support for Poland and accused Moscow of provocative behavior.

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen denounced what she described as a “reckless and unprecedented violation” of Polish airspace and declared the “full solidarity” of the EU, as she was delivering her annual ‘state of the union’ address before the European Parliament.

Kaja Kallas, the EU’s top diplomat, alleged that “indications suggest [the incident] was intentional, not accidental.”

French President Emmanuel Macron denounced the incursion as “simply unacceptable” and urged Russia “to put an end to this reckless escalation.” British Prime Minister Keir Starmer said Moscow conducted an “egregious and unprecedented violation” of Polish airspace.

Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, a critic of the Western approach to the Ukraine conflict, has likewise expressed solidarity with Poland. However, he declined to blame Russia and argued that the incident “proves that our policy of calling for peace in the Russia-Ukraine war is reasonable and rational.”

What NATO says

NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte echoed others’ remarks and praised the bloc’s response, which he said included Polish F-16 fighter jets, Dutch F-35s, Italian AWACS airborne radar surveillance, European air refueling tankers, and German-operated long-range Patriot missile systems.

“Whether it was intentionally or not, it is absolutely reckless. It is absolutely dangerous,” he said.

Poland claims it shot down ‘Russian drones’READ MORE: Poland claims it shot down ‘Russian drones’
What the Kremlin says

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov declined to respond to questions over the details, saying it was up to the military to do so.

He dismissed the Western allegations, saying “the leadership of the EU and NATO accuse Russia of provocations on a daily basis, most often declining to offer any arguments.”

What Belarus says

Minsk claimed credit for giving the Polish military an early warning about incoming drones.

General Pavel Muraveiko, the chief of the general staff of Belarus, reported tracking Russian and Ukrainian drones used for mutual strikes overnight, adding that some of them “had lost their track as a result of the impact of the parties’ electronic warfare assets.”

The Belarusian warning “allowed the Polish side to respond promptly” to the threat, the general noted, adding that “the Polish side also informed the Belarusian forces on duty about the approach of unidentified aircraft from the territory of Ukraine.”

Belarusian air defenses shot down some of the stray aircraft, the general said.

Ukrainian ‘dream’ of dragging NATO into the conflict

In an interview last week, former Polish President Andrzej Duda mentioned a November 2022 affair in which a Ukrainian interceptor missile landed on Polish territory, killing a local resident.

Ukraine’s Vladimir Zelensky claimed at the time the weapon was Russian and that Moscow had intentionally attacked Poland. Zelensky urged Warsaw to call on NATO’s collective defense arrangement.

“From the very beginning, they’ve been trying to drag everyone into the war. That’s obvious,” Duda said, describing such development as a “dream” for the Ukrainian leadership.

“Poland, being a NATO state, could never have agreed to that,” he added.

https://www.rt.com/news/624425-russian- ... -airspace/

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The Reported Russian Drone Incursions Into Poland Might Have Been Due To NATO Jamming
Andrew Korybko
Sep 11, 2025

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It’s unlikely that Russia would risk rallying the West around a no-fly zone over Ukraine by staging a deliberate provocation against Poland or even just carrying out a recon mission in NATO airspace.

Poland claimed to have shot down several Russian drones on Wednesday morning that reportedly crossed into its airspace during the latest large-scale strikes against Ukraine. This occurred amidst the ongoing Polish, Lithuanian, and NATO drills involving 30,000 Polish troops and just ahead of the upcoming Russian-Belarusian Zapad 2025 drills. Some therefore suspect that this was either a deliberate provocation by Russia or a botched recon mission, but it might have just been due to NATO jamming.

It was recently argued that “There Might Be More To The Von Der Leyen-GPS-Russia Hoax Than Scoring Cheap Infowar Points” after the dramatic claim that Russia supposedly jammed her plane while it attempted to land in Bulgaria was debunked by Sofia itself and Western media. The alternative theory put forth was that this false narrative was meant to justify aggressive signals jamming in Kaliningrad, though this could also be directed towards Belarus given its hosting of the upcoming Zapad 2025 drills.

Such interference might have thus caused Russian drones to veer off course into Poland during the latest large-scale strikes against Ukraine. Aggressive signals jamming could also precede implementation of reported plans for imposing a no-fly zone over at least part of Ukraine in connection with the West’s security guarantees for that country. Although nowhere as foolproof as patrols over Ukrainian airspace and authorizing NATO-based Patriots to protect its skies, it would carry much less of an escalation risk.

Moreover, if NATO expected that its speculative signals jamming – possibly ramped up after the von der Leyen-GPS-Russia hoax, which might have been timed to coincide with the upcoming Zapad 2025 drills – would cause Russian drones to veer off course, then this might be part of a preplanned escalation. The objective could be to rally support for the abovementioned no-fly zone proposal or even begin the gradual process of implementing it on the pretext of “proactive defense” in light of this incident.

Over 3,5 years into the special operation, Russia would have by now presumably gamed out everything that could realistically follow the scenario of several of its drones crossing into Poland, with policymakers thus likely being aware that this could be exploited to advance the no-fly zone plot. The aforesaid insight accordingly reduces the odds that this was a deliberate provocation or a botched recon mission, either of which would have probably been carried out in force to make the cost-benefit tradeoff more worthwhile.

This is a similar logic as what was recently shared in this analysis here arguing that Russia probably didn’t deliberately target the Cabinet of Ministers building in Kiev so as to avoid fueling the no-fly zone plot. While that particular incident might have been randomly caused by drone debris, the latest one could have been planned to a much greater degree if NATO jamming was indeed responsible as conjectured. It remains to be seen, however, whether Poland will participate in any no-fly zone over Ukraine as a result.

Former President Andrzej Duda recently revealed that Zelensky tried to manipulate Poland into war with Russia over November 2022’s Przewodow incident, which he refused to fall for, while his successor Karol Nawrocki pledged ahead of the second round not to deploy troops to Ukraine. This policy continuity, which aligns with Poles getting fed up with Ukrainian refugees and this neighboring conflict, could foil NATO’s plans to manipulate Poland into this even though it might still agree to ramp up signals jamming.

https://korybko.substack.com/p/the-repo ... incursions

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Germans’ Nord Stream story is pure comedy, Moscow points finger at Brits

Martin Jay

September 11, 2025

One has to wonder why at this precise moment these unfortunate souls have been framed for crimes they didn’t commit.

The Germans are sticking to their preposterous claims that the Nord Stream pipeline attacks, which effectively forced Germany to ditch its cheap gas in preference for overpriced American gas, were carried out by Ukrainians. In late August, a cohort of unlikely suspects, who some might call ‘patsies’ were rounded up and bundled into vans to face charges, according to a number of big media outlets whose reports did not make it into the international domain.

However, the story itself is comical as the Germans are going to extraordinary servile lengths to please their American masters who have no doubt asked them to cook up a story and go out and arrest ‘the usual suspects’.

German media went to extraordinary lengths to not only get details right but also to present it to a gullible public with a united front – one story, one narrative with no possibilities of it being spun differently when the smaller media outlets rewrite it. They went so far, they even made it a ‘joint report’ between Die Zeit, ARD, and Süddeutsche Zeitung, with investigators reported to have said they have identified all suspects involved in the sabotage. The reports claim the warrants cover four divers, an explosives expert, a ship captain, and the ‘leader’ of the operation.

Officials allege the suspects travelled under false names using genuine passports, a detail they say indicates support from high-level Ukrainian officials although no such journalists writing up the hilarious piece appear to want to point out the absurdity of the whole operation being carried out by a diving instructor.

One has to wonder why at this precise moment these unfortunate souls have been framed for crimes they didn’t commit. Is it because western intelligence picked up reports that more information is coming to light about the operation and which partners the Americans might have had?

As far as making calculated assumptions about who the real culprits were, the Russians themselves appear to be the most realistic with their assessment with some of their experts fingering the British naval special forces.

The sabotage of the Nord Stream pipelines could not have been pulled off without Western commandos, a top aide to Russian President Vladimir Putin has claimed, singling out Britain as the likely culprit to have done it. The idea that Ukrainians themselves carried out the technical work lacks credibility on a number of levels. In an article published recently in Kommersant, the former head of Russia’s Federal Security Service (FSB), Nikolay Patrushev, argued that Ukrainians simply don’t have the required expertise to carry out this complex operation under their own steam. The sabotage was likely ‘planned, overseen, and executed with the involvement of highly trained NATO special forces,’ Patrushev wrote, adding that the perpetrators were experienced in deep-sea operations and familiar with working in the Baltic. ‘Few armies or intelligence services have divers capable of executing such an operation correctly and, above all, covertly. One unit with the necessary skills is the British Special Boat Service,’ he said.

Founded during World War II, the SBS is the Royal Navy’s elite squad specializing in amphibious warfare which carried out a number of daring raids during WWII which changed the course of the war – perhaps salt in the wound of politicians in Germany who prefer not to remember this period of their history.

For those in Germany who kept a straight face for the last three years like the then chancellor Olaf Scholz or his foreign minister, the clueless Annalena Baerbock, there are rewards though from the Americans who are grateful that they sold out their own country. Baerbock has just landed the top job at the UN as the assembly’s president. Nice work if you can get it but in reality, a brown envelope pay off for her graft.

https://strategic-culture.su/news/2025/ ... -at-brits/

The Brits are certainly capable(unlike the Ukes...) of pulling off that attack but Russia has bent over backwards not to antagonize the US, especially with it's unstable leadership, so that line may simply be misdirection.
"There is great chaos under heaven; the situation is excellent."

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Re: Footnotes from the Ukrainian "Crisis"; New High-Points in Cynicism Part V

Post by blindpig » Fri Sep 12, 2025 12:02 pm

The Russian-Ukrainian conflict and international law: self-determination and democracy
Posted by @nsanzo ⋅ 12/09/2025

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On July 9, on the website NachDenkSeiten , the writer and translator Éva Péli presented a summary article of the content of the interview with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, conducted by the Hungarian newspaper Magyar Nemzet .

One of the striking parts of the interview focused on international law, with Lavrov accusing Western countries of selective reference to territorial integrity, ignoring self-determination and respect for human rights. To this end, he specifically mentioned the content of UN General Assembly Resolution 2625, which includes, as an Annex, the Declaration on Principles of International Law concerning Friendly Relations and Cooperation among States in accordance with the Charter of the United Nations , adopted on 24 October 1970 [1] . According to this statement, in Lavrov's interpretation, the appeal to the principle of territorial integrity could only be made by those states whose governments represent the entire population.

Although not a directly binding international agreement, the Declaration constitutes an important legal source as it develops, in a universally accepted manner, general principles of the United Nations Charter. In their decisions and assessments, international tribunals, particularly the International Court of Justice, have often relied on the principles of Declaration 2625. This recognizes its fundamental nature and its role as a leading source for the applied interpretation of international law.

The outstanding normative value of Declaration 2625 is associated with the fact that it was adopted by consensus, coinciding with the 25th anniversary of the creation of the UN, and that its fundamental intention was to address aspects not sufficiently defined until then in international law, particularly those relating to friendly relations and cooperation between States in maintaining international peace and security. In this sense, it constitutes a relevant legal source for a more developed interpretation of the fundamental principles governing relations between States in the international community, including everything related to the development of the principle of self-determination. As the preamble to the Declaration states, in its quest to strengthen world peace, its adoption was intended to constitute " a landmark event in the evolution of international law and relations among States by promoting the rule of law among nations and, in particular, the universal application of the principles embodied in the Charter [of the United Nations] ."

The principle of self-determination and Declaration 2625

Underlying Lavrov's argument is the view that, within the framework of international law, there exists a right to free self-determination for those peoples, especially in those territories where they are the majority, subject to the dictates of a government that does not act as a representative government of all population groups or peoples present in the territory.

However, with regard to the principle of self-determination, international law has traditionally been faced with the absence of a clear delimitation of its content, even though it is generally accepted that self-determination implies the right to a free choice, by the different peoples, with respect to the determination of their political status and the pursuit of the desired economic, social and cultural development.

In this context, the two essentially debated aspects, which remain somewhat unclear, have been related to the content of the concept of people and the potential right to secession associated with self-determination. Regarding these two points, some recent legal developments, notably the Reference on the Secession of Quebec by the Supreme Court of Canada (Quebec Reference) and the Opinion on Kosovo by the International Court of Justice (Kosovo Opinion), have helped to clarify at least some basic issues.

The concept of people

In international law, the delimitation of the concept of " people ," the ultimate subject of self-determination, has remained relatively undetermined. To a large extent, the term " people" has tended to be assimilated in international law to the population of the territory, a criterion that is consistent with the application, in the policy of decolonization (or the dissolution of previously existing states), of the principle of uti possidetis juris (that is, that the borders are those that existed at the time of independence or statehood). Thus, the process of external self-determination has been understood to be applicable within the framework of the borders inherited from the colonial state (or from the state in the process of dissolution, for example, in the case of the former Socialist Federal Republic of Yugoslavia) at the time of independence.

Although it is implicit in international law that parts of a State's population may constitute a people , the Kosovo Opinion introduces a fundamental novelty regarding the mode of representation of that people and its capacity to act independently without violating the precepts of international law. Thus, in this Opinion, the International Court of Justice establishes that, within the framework of international law, non-State actors (understood as actors acting outside of State and even international law) do not violate international norms by acting jointly " in their capacity as representatives of the people of Kosovo " and declaring their independence, outside the provisional framework of self-government established by the United Nations and Serbian state regulation. Therefore, regarding the bid to exercise external self-determination, including potential secession, representing a specific part of the population of a part of a State, a people , would be sufficient to be able to declare independence without contravening the general norms of international law.

In this way, the Opinion on Kosovo transforms the " representatives " of a minority people within the state into actors with real capacity to act on matters of self-determination. This, of course, could be applied, in the Ukrainian case, to representatives of territories such as the Autonomous Republic of Crimea.

The right to secession

However, being able to act legitimately as independent actors in international law, claiming to represent a people, does not mean that there is an automatic right to rebellion and secession. Under international law, independent non-colonial states can claim the application of the principle of national unity and territorial integrity to prevail over external demands for self-determination. Furthermore, international law expects the right to self-determination to be exercised by peoples within the framework of existing sovereign states, respecting their territorial integrity. The Opinion on Kosovo does not question this principle, but simply notes that there is no rule in international law that generally prohibits declarations of independence.

The issue to be debated regarding the right of secession of minority peoples within a state is to determine those circumstances, always exceptional, in which a process of external self-determination could be applicable because internal self-determination is not possible within the state itself, as theorized and generally defended by international law. And this is where the mention of representative government in Declaration 2625 becomes particularly relevant.

In this regard, the position of the Supreme Court of Canada in its Reference to the Province of Quebec should be recalled. According to this court, there are three exceptional circumstances that could make the exercise of external self-determination and secession of a given state permissible. The first two, provided for in the United Nations Charter itself, are linked to the existence of a colonial situation or, outside this colonial context, a similar form of oppression (situations of foreign subjugation, domination, or exploitation, for example). However, in a third circumstance, when a complete blockage of a meaningful exercise of a people's right to internal self-determination is observed, a right to secession could eventually be considered. In this case of actual oppression, when " a defined group is denied meaningful access to the government to pursue its political, economic, social, and cultural development ," the people in question would ultimately be entitled to exercise their right to self-determination through secession.

As a common aspect, in all three cases mentioned, the affected group or people would face a type of government that does not represent the entire people or peoples present in the territory, without distinction of any kind. And it is precisely at this point that the precepts of Declaration 2625 become decisive, since it specifies the cases in which the prohibition of those actions aimed at " violating or undermining, in whole or in part, the territorial integrity of sovereign and independent States " is applicable. This would apply to those States " which conduct themselves in accordance with the principle of equal rights and self-determination of peoples […] and are, therefore, endowed with a government representing the entire people belonging to the territory, without distinction as to race, creed, or skin color ."

This precept on the requirement of a representative government in order to appeal to the principle of territorial integrity against secessionist attempts is taken up again, in a more simplified form, in the Vienna Declaration adopted by consensus at the World Conference on Human Rights in 1993, in which the idea of ​​representative government is associated with a “ government that represents all the people belonging to the territory, without any distinction whatsoever .”

In conclusion, for the principle of territorial integrity to be respected, States must act on behalf of their entire population. This normative approach, like the others contained in the aforementioned Declaration 2625, is now considered part of the customary norms of international law.

For this reason, in paragraph 134 of its Quebec Reference, the Supreme Court of Canada establishes that the absence of a representative government, and the associated blockage of the processes of effective implementation of internal self-determination, " could potentially give rise to a right of secession ." This would seem particularly true, according to various experts, in the presence of a serious violation of human rights and if the aforementioned blockage is severe and persistent, beyond the possibility of correction through judicial means.

In this type of violation of the right to internal self-determination, it would be considered that, without being colonial peoples, we could speak of peoples treated in a colonial manner, their capacity to exercise their right to internal self-determination internally being completely frustrated. According to the Supreme Court of Canada, in paragraph 138, a people thus subjected could be entitled to " a right to external self-determination because they have been denied the capacity to exercise their right to self-determination internally ."

Limits to the right of secession and the Ukrainian question within the framework of Declaration 2625

However, as the Canadian court points out, it is not sufficiently established that the assumption of the lack of a representative government truly reflects an internationally established legal norm, given that Declaration 2625 does not emanate from a resolution of the UN Security Council but from its General Assembly. It must be remembered that the principle of self-determination in international law has always evolved within a framework of respect for the territorial integrity of States. Various international principles, such as those of territorial integrity, sovereignty, non-intervention in domestic affairs, rules against premature recognition of new States, or the application of the uti possidetis juris principle , condition the application of the principle of self-determination, understood in terms of the right to secession. As the Supreme Court of Canada notes in paragraph 126, this would, in any case, be a measure of last resort that " arises only in the most extreme cases, and even then, in carefully defined circumstances ."

In reality, what Declaration 2625 would associate with the principle of self-determination of peoples would not so much be a right to external secession as an internal right to democracy and full and complete respect for human rights, whether linguistic, religious, or cultural.

Notwithstanding this, it can be accepted that, following the events of Maidan in 2014, Ukraine's position is a clear example of a state whose government not only fails to respect the entire population or peoples residing within its territory—in this case, those who identify with the Russian nation or culture—on the basis of equality and without discrimination, but its actions also make the integration of the pro-Russian minority into the country's democratic life unviable. It must be remembered that the Ukrainian state has expressly declared itself against any claim to minority representation, favoring the elimination, through political, judicial, and military means, of any effective political and even cultural expression of the pro-Russian opposition. Hence, in this case, the total lack of respect in Ukraine for the effective application of democracy and respect for human rights, under conditions of equality, for a significant portion of the population could be argued before international courts.

According to various authors, such as Jean Marie Woehrling, there are three basic criteria provided for in Declaration 2625 that, if not present, could allow for an external exercise of the right to self-determination in a way that would impact the territorial integrity or political unity of a state. These criteria can be summarized in three aspects: not having been able to self-determine within the state; being subjected to unequal or discriminatory treatment or violation of human rights; and lacking a representative government.

The question to be asked then is whether the right to external self-determination could not be justified in the case of a state that prohibits the very existence of the Russian people and culture on its territory and is willing to use military force, contributing to the total destruction of its cities, against the rebel population of Donbass or Crimea, with the decisive or majority influence of the pro-Russian minority. The mere resort to war against Donbass since 2014 places the conflict in a scenario of Ukraine's failure to fulfill its obligations as a representative government, particularly since the crisis over the Minsk agreements, with the current Ukrainian authorities constantly referring to their impossible implementation (despite having signed them). The persecution of the Russian language and religious beliefs associated with the Russian world, as well as the almost universal ban on parties and movements linked to the pro-Russian population in Ukraine, are further examples of the Ukrainian state's unequivocal unwillingness to represent the interests of this segment of the population on its territory.

Hence, the possibility of resorting to the right of secession could arise—at least as a potential demand within the framework of international law—in cases where a portion of the Ukrainian people has been denied a significant level of exercise of their right to self-determination within the State of which they are a part.

Thus, while in the case of Crimea, the non-prohibition of declarations of independence under international law would potentially apply, Ukraine's failure to comply with the Minsk agreements, in a context of complete political persecution of groups with pro-Russian culture or views, with overt actions even aimed at encouraging their departure from the country, places Ukraine in a situation of potential non-compliance with its obligation to act as a representative government. This situation has historically been particularly real in certain areas of the Donbass oblasts , both Donetsk and Luhansk.

The various parties in breach of international law

Undoubtedly, the Russian intervention in 2022 involved the exercise of military, political, or economic coercion against the State of Ukraine, as well as the threat or use of force against that state's territorial integrity. But this is not the only violation of the principles contained in Declaration 2625 and other norms of international law. Analyzing the content of that declaration, in fact, at least the following violations can be identified on the Ukrainian and western sides:

The obligation not to intervene in the affairs of any other state, as an essential condition for ensuring peaceful coexistence among nations, can be considered violated not only by Russian actions, whether in 2014 or 2022, but also by all those Western states, the United States and Canada foremost, that facilitated the action against Ukraine's then legitimate institutions in 2014. It should be remembered that, according to Declaration 2625, states have the duty to refrain from organizing, instigating, assisting, or participating in acts of civil war in another state. They must also refrain from any other form of interference or threat that would harm the personality of the state or the political, economic, and cultural elements that constitute it.
It is hardly debatable that certain states failed, during the Maidan period, to comply with their obligation to “ refrain from organizing, supporting, encouraging, financing, instigating or tolerating armed, subversive or terrorist activities aimed at changing by violence the legitimate regime” in Ukraine in 2014.

The use of coercion and threats has not only characterized the Russian Federation against Ukraine, but has also been present in the actions of Ukraine and its Western allies. Particularly notable is the economic coercion by Western powers against the Russian Federation, an action that violates the content of Declaration 2625 by being framed in terms that go beyond the scope of Russian military intervention, seeking to extend beyond the end of military actions, and expressly establishing itself outside the UN Security Council, with no intention of considering its approval within that Council.
The actions carried out in Kursk Oblast , as well as in other areas of the Russian Federation, such as Bryansk and Belgorod Oblasts , also constitute an attack on Russian territorial integrity, pursued by the State of Ukraine with the effective military support of Western countries. As Declaration 2625 states, every State " has the duty to refrain from resorting to the threat or use of force to violate the existing international borders of another State or as a means of settling international disputes, including territorial disputes and problems concerning the boundaries of States ." The Russian intervention does not legitimize Ukrainian action in Kursk and other Russian provinces under Ukrainian occupation during the post-2022 war.
It should also be recalled that Ukraine had previously resorted to the use of force to violate the international demarcation lines established in Minsk. Beginning in 2022, it had also resorted to organizing irregular forces to carry out incursions into the territory of the Russian Federation.

At no point, and with some rare exceptions, such as the Trump initiative, have either Ukraine or its allied countries opted after 2022 to try to resolve the dispute with the Russian Federation through peaceful means. On the contrary, the option for military action characterized the position of these countries after the Russian intervention in February of that year, even during the period when the Russian Federation offered to negotiate an agreement in Istanbul, accepting the sovereign equality of both the Russian and Ukrainian sides (in sharp contrast to the attempt to unilaterally impose a solution characterized by Ukrainian and Western initiatives, for example the Ukraine Victory Plan or the proposals of the United Kingdom and the European Union within the framework of the negotiation project proposed by the US under Trump).
In this context, it is also worth mentioning the Ukrainian State's obligation to cooperate in eliminating all forms of racial discrimination and religious intolerance, something it has consistently failed to do with regard to the pro-Russian population in Ukraine.

Furthermore, the obligation to fulfill in good faith the obligations assumed by states in their international relations was completely broken in connection with the Minsk agreements, as has been made clear by the statements of the various individuals who, since 2014, successively held the Presidency of Ukraine.
However, it is in all matters relating to respect for the principle of equal rights and the self-determination of peoples that the actions of the State of Ukraine and its allied countries have most clearly deviated from any pretense of conformity to the current norms of international law. The greatest exponent of this departure has been the set of political and military measures adopted to nullify the effective possibility of democratic integration of the minority attached to Russian culture into the State of Ukraine, with the highest institutions of that state resorting to military attacks against the dissident population, especially in the Donbass region. It should also be remembered at this point that resorting to the use of force to deprive peoples of their national identity constitutes a violation of their inalienable rights, a method of action that the State of Ukraine has clearly resorted to since 2014 against the pro-Russian opposition in that country.

With regard to processes that no competent international institution has defined as illegal under international law, in particular the one observed following the action of the competent institutions of the Autonomous Republic of Crimea, it should be recalled that, according to Declaration 2625, the State of Ukraine should have “ refrained from resorting to any forceful measures that would deprive peoples of their right to self-determination, freedom and independence .” Every State, including Ukraine, has the duty to refrain from resorting to any forceful measures that would deprive the peoples referred to in the formulation of the principle of equal rights and self-determination of their right to self-determination.

While the violations noted above do not predetermine the potential position of international tribunals regarding the events, they do aim to highlight that, in no case, and contrary to the prevailing belief in Western countries, can the Russian Federation be considered the only State that has failed to comply with its obligations under international law in the Russian-Ukrainian conflict. For this reason, in the absence of any pact or agreement between the parties to resolve the issues raised by the participants in the Russian-Ukrainian war, significant legal battles are likely to erupt. Furthermore, with regard to any disputes that may arise, the content of the final decisions of international tribunals cannot be predicted a priori, despite the opinions of Western governments.

[1] Resolution A/RES/2625 (XXV).

https://slavyangrad.es/2025/09/12/el-co ... emocracia/

Google Translator

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From Cassad's Telegram account:

Colonelcassad
A combat aircraft of the Ukrainian Armed Forces attacked the building of the operating power unit No. 3 of the Smolensk NPP on Friday night. The drone was suppressed by technical means.

The UAV attack did not affect the safety of the operation of the Smolensk NPP - Rosatom

As a result of the attack, several windows of the auxiliary rooms of the NPP were knocked out.

***

Colonelcassad
Regarding yesterday's Su-27 of the Ukrainian Air Force and Major Borovik.
The Russian Defense Ministry reported in today's report that the aircraft was shot down. The enemy remained silent about the reasons for the loss of the aircraft yesterday.

***

Colonelcassad
The UAVs that crashed in Poland were under the control of the Ukrainians - former assistant to the head of the Pentagon Stephen Bryan

"I see this incident as a provocation with the aim of getting more weapons from NATO countries ," he believes.

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Colonelcassad
Over the course of the past night, air defense systems on duty intercepted and destroyed 221 Ukrainian fixed-wing unmanned aerial vehicles :

– 85 UAVs over the territory of the Bryansk region,
– 42 UAVs over the territory of the Smolensk region, – 28 UAVs over the territory of the Leningrad region, – 18 UAVs over the territory of the Kaluga region, – 14 UAVs over the territory of the Novgorod region, – 9 UAVs over the territory of the Oryol region and the Moscow region, – 7 UAVs over the territory of the Belgorod region, – 3 UAVs over the territories of the Rostov and Tver regions, – one UAV over the Pskov, Tula and Kursk regions. Flight restrictions were introduced at night at the airports of Ivanovo, Pskov, Yaroslavl, Kaluga and St. Petersburg. More than 30 flights were delayed or cancelled at Pulkovo. In Kaluga, the restrictions have already been lifted by this minute. In addition, a UAV attack was repelled in three municipalities of the Rostov Region. A private house and two cars were damaged, no casualties were reported. As a result of the night attack by the Ukrainian Armed Forces on the Bryansk Region, seven civilians were injured. 85 enemy UAVs were sent to the region that night. One of them struck a passenger minibus that was transporting employees of an enterprise on the Pogar-Gremyach highway in the Pogarsky District. During the evacuation of passengers from the damaged bus, Ukrainian Nazis launched another targeted attack. All victims were taken to the hospital, where they received the necessary medical care. @opersvodki

***

Colonelcassad
In the Moscow region, 2 drones were shot down that were trying to break through to Moscow.
Sobyanin confirmed the successful destruction of both targets.

4 have already been shot down.

https://t.me/s/boris_rozhin

Google Translator

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Brief Frontline Report – September 11th, 2025

Report by Marat Khairullin and Mikhail Popov.
Zinderneuf
Sep 11, 2025

The Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation reports: "Units of the 'East' Group, as a result of active offensives, liberated the settlement of Sosnovka in the Dnepropetrovsk region."

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The offensive of the Russian Armed Forces units towards the defense node of the Ukrainian Armed Forces at Velikomikhailovka-Orestopil ("Orestopol" was called "Arestopol" in previous reports; "Orestopil" is the proper Russian name) continues. On September 7, our assault troops took control of the forefield of this node - the Ukrainian Armed Forces position at the Khoroshee farmstead, and today cleared the settlement of Sosnovka (47°55′56″N 36°30′06″E, about 50 residents). The settlement is small, but enemy positions there ensured the security of the Velikomikhailovka - Ternove - Novonikolaevka bypass ("Velikomikhailovka" is spelled "Velykomyhaylovka" on the map). The transport network and interaction of the Ukrainian defense nodes Velikomikhailovka - Orestopol and the southern Ternovoe - Berezovoe - Novonikolaevka have been cut off at the near line. Now, they can only connect via the bypass Velikomikhailovka - Alekseevka - Verbovoe - Novonikolaevka, which is located almost 8 kilometers to the west.

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Green: the new logistics route that the AFU must use since losing Sosnovka.

As we assumed, the Ukrainian defense node Velikomykhailovka - Orestopol is the main task for our units in the near future. After its elimination, the right flank of the Ukrainian Armed Forces (south of Dnepropetrovsk and the northeastern area of Zaporozhye regions) will be cut off from the central radial route H-15 in this area, which provides communication for the entire direction with deep Ukraine through the city of Zaporozhye.

https://maratkhairullin.substack.com/p/ ... tember-c9b

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Fighting in the vicinity of Konstantinovka
September 11, 2025
Rybar

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In the Konstantinovsky direction, Russian troops are attacking in the vicinity of Chasov Yar . Evidence has emerged of an advance north of the city in the area of ​​Mayskoye .

There, the enemy has set up a large stronghold, at least part of which has come under the control of Russian troops. In recent weeks, there have been reports of major successes by the Russian Armed Forces in this area, but until recently there was no objective evidence of this. At the same time, significant successes have been achieved in the vicinity of Dzerzhinsk in the area of ​​Belaya Gora and Shcherbinovka .

And how are things in the vicinity of Dzerzhinsk?
On the Stupochki-Belaya Gora line , the fighters occupy a network of fortified areas between these settlements. The stormtroopers managed to occupy another part of Aleksandro-Shultino and advance into the forest belts north of Belaya Gora . The situation here is extremely tense, and the area is full of fortifications, which slows down the pace of the offensive.

There are reports from the central sector that Russian troops are conducting reconnaissance in force near Ivanopol . It is possible that here it will be easier for Russian units to advance through the enemy's lines of strong points. This will avoid moving through open spaces and will save the attack aircraft from unnecessary losses.

In addition, another part of Shcherbinovka was occupied and cleared . Later, footage of objective control appeared, confirming the closing of the ring in the northern part of the settlement.

At the same time, there is no talk of a classic “cauldron” - the enemy is sitting in basements and not sticking its head out, while the Russian Armed Forces are not trying to organize a tight encirclement ring and are advancing further north.

To the south of the Kleban-Byk reservoir , artillery, UAV crews and operational-tactical aviation are working on the enemy trapped near the reservoir. The retreat routes of the remnants of the Ukrainian Armed Forces are controlled by Russian drone operators, which does not allow the enemy to withdraw its units to the north.

At the same time, individual attempts by the Russian Armed Forces to take up positions here have not been successful - however, there is no tactical need for this. This area is located lower relative to the positions of the Ukrainian Armed Forces on the northern shore, and physical control over it will not benefit Russian troops.

Evidence of the Russian Armed Forces' advance north of Yablonovka has come from the western flank . The enemy has been driven out of several large strongholds to the north. Russian troops are gradually breaking through fortified areas located along the T-05-04 highway on the southwestern approaches to Konstantinovka .

https://rybar.ru/boi-v-okrestnostyah-konstantinovki/

Attacks on civilian ships
September 11, 2025
Rybar

" Terrorism with hidden goals "

Today, the Main Intelligence Directorate of the so-called Ukraine published footage of a new strike by an FPV drone on the rescue vessel “ Rescuer Ilyin ”.

This happened yesterday at 10.18 in the Novorossiysk area . As a result, the compass was slightly damaged. A fire broke out, which was extinguished by the ship's crew. There were no casualties either.

Many colleagues in the industry have rightly noted that there is no military purpose in this vessel. And in fact, the Ukrainian side is once again resorting to terrorist methods.

However, this is not the only attack in recent days. At the end of August, the Ukrainian Armed Forces attacked a tugboat near Sevastopol Bay - equipment that ensures the opening/closing of boom barriers.

About a week ago, there was an attempt to strike a tanker in a similar manner. The UAV exploded in the air, a fire broke out on the deck, but it was quickly extinguished.

However, this tanker transports oil, including to China and India. And the attack on the Ilyin was carried out not far from the port that provides unloading at the Caspian Pipeline Consortium .

For now, this can be attributed to the usual PR strikes of the GUR in the absence of other results, but if such trends continue, the situation may become more dangerous.

Such attacks on rather scarce vessels may also have another purpose. Who will "rescue" a conventional tanker in the event of sabotage in the Black Sea or provide assistance in the event of an accident at sea?

https://rybar.ru/udary-po-grazhdanskim-sudam/

Google Translator

******

Parubiy whacked

Patsy or vigilante? Zelensky vs Zaluzhny/Poroshenko? The tragedy of the Stselnikov family. Fathers and sons, traitors and patriots.

Events in Ukraine
Sep 10, 2025

August 30 - Andriy Parubiy, godfather of the modern Ukrainian nationalist movement, is shot 8 times by a man posing as a delivery driver in the western Ukrainian city of Lviv. (Video at link.)

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Parubiy in the 1990s, when he was leader of the Social-National Party of Ukraine

The assassin acted highly professionally. Reports state that 7 bullets were found in Parubiy’s body. No footage of the assassin’s face during or directly after the killing has emerged - he was covered by his motorcycle helmet at all times. He placed the gun into his delivery box as he left. The weapon is yet to be found.

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36 hours later, late on September 1, law enforcement declares it has captured the killer. One Mykhailo Stselnikov, born 1973. He is arrested in the Khmelnitsky region, central Ukraine.

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Stselnikov promptly confesses, telling journalists in court on September 2 that he had taken revenge for his son, who had died in the Russo-Ukrainian war in 2023 around Bakhmut:

All I want now is for the verdict to be announced quickly—yes, I admit, I killed him [Parubiy]—and I want to request to be exchanged for prisoners of war so I can go [to Russia] and find my son's body

(Video at link.)

However, he denied reports by some Ukrainian television channels that Russian operators had ‘blackmailed’ him into committing the murder through the possibility of seeing his son’s body.

When asked why he chose Parubiy, who hadn’t been visibly active in politics since 2019, he answered that it was ‘because Parubiy was nearby’, and that ‘it would have been [ex-president] Poroshenko if I lived in Vynnytsia [Poroshenko’s home city]’. According to him, this was an act of ‘personal revenge against the Ukrainian authorities’.

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Poroshenko

But isn’t that an interesting reference to Poroshenko? Parubiy was an MP in Poroshenko’s party, European Solidarity. Not only that, but Poroshenko is probably Zelensky’s greatest enemy at the moment, as well as being the most powerful ally of ex-head of the army Valery Zaluzhny. Finally, take into account that Parubiy made it very clear between 2019 to 2024 that he believed Zelensky to be a pro-Russian traitor, whether conscious of it or not. More on that later.

Of course, the general narrative in Ukraine is that the Kremlin is behind the killing of the great patriot Parubiy.

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Parubiy (seated) in the 90s.

Ukrainian media has also latched onto Stselnikov, painting him as a pro-Russian traitor. He even called himself Alexander Pushkin online. He also doubted Russian responsibility for the Bucha killings of 2022 and believed the nationalist regime change of 2014 was responsible for the current war. Who would have thought that a resident of patriotic Lviv could have such treacherous views!

Just take a look at the contents of his flat, per the police report:

"33 orders and medals from the USSR and Ukraine, and 25 pins and metal stars." Additionally, the following items were found in Stselnikov's possession:

—A lapel pin with the inscription "For the Taking of Budapest" [a Soviet WW2 medal - EIU];

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—Pins with the inscriptions "Society for the Struggle for Sobriety" [Soviet-era - EIU];

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—50 spent cartridge casings;

—A silencer.


The last of the Mohicans - a true boomer patriot of the USSR.

If that’s really what happened, the Stselnikov story needs to be made into some sort of film or novel. An unemployed father long estranged from his son, wracked with guilt over the fact that he couldn’t stop him from volunteering to fight and die in a meaningless war, decides to commit a perhaps (or perhaps not) equally meaningless act of revenge. Meanwhile, his nationalist journalist ex-wife writes a book about how proud she is of her son’s path. More on that later.

However, I think you’ll already be able to identify several strange things about this narrative of the lone wolf Stselnikov, who supposedly killed with the intent of getting sent to Russia. You wouldn’t be alone - Ukrainian political analyst Konstantin Bondarenko wrote this on September 1:

I read the version of the motive that the so-called "Parubiy's killer" (or rather, the person they are trying to present to us as the killer) allegedly had. The man was allegedly blackmailed by the Russians for a year with the threat of not returning his deceased son's body (or, according to another version, the location of the burial site).

So, just imagine the motivation: you kill Parubiy, you get a life sentence, and we will tell you where your son's grave is, we'll send you the coordinates.
And we are expected to believe this.
In my opinion, this is a disgrace for Ukrainian law enforcement—to manipulate facts under political pressure.


It should be noted that many Ukrainians aren’t quite as saddened about Parubiy’s death as the western media is.

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Ukrainian liberal nationalist commentator Vitaliy Portnikov made the following complaint:

You saw what is happening on social media regarding Parubiy's death. You saw it, right? Yes, one can assume that some of it are bots, but we are once again convinced of just how many Ukrainian citizens are, in fact, like a litmus test, carriers of the Russian [worldview].

These people are under bombs in Kharkiv, Odesa, Dnipro, and Kyiv. They risk death every day, but they continue to be representatives of Russian political philosophy.

For them, Parubiy is still a greater enemy than Putin. They still think that if there were no people like Parubiy, they would live in heartfelt understanding with Russia.

Maybe there would be less Ukrainian and more Russian. Maybe this Ukraine would look like a colony of Russia, but at least no one would be shooting. But when these Parubiys went to the Maidan to defend their rights, which are not our rights, that's when it all started. And now we're supposed to feel sorry for him?

If there had been no Parubiy, there would be no Putin and no war. That's their logic.




Portnikov, who has lived his entire life off grants from USAID and the Open Society Foundation, is much better equipped than low-iq everymen to understand the true purpose of life. He is the author of such immortal quotes as ‘getting politicians to fight is a return to feudalism. We live in democracy, the people must fight’ and ‘the people who perish and die are building their country. They have gained an opportunity they would never have had if they had lived in Great Britain, France, Germany, or Poland. It is simply amazing how lucky they are.’

Anyway, onto Parubiy and his strange killer. Patsy, vigilante, or a secret third thing?

The sad Stselnikov story
Now, let’s assume that the stories put forth by Stselnikov is true, which is not impossible. Even if he didn’t kill Parubiy, the Stselnikov family tragedy is a symptomatic fragment of the war.

Mykhailo Stselnikov’s son, Mykhailo-Viktor Stselnikov, was a typical representative of the idealist men who volunteered to fight in the Ukrainian army in 2022-3. A programmer - many of the volunteers were relatively well-off, and some even returned from abroad to fight. A demographic that largely no longer exists - Mykhailo-Victor died in Bakhmut in 2023 like many others. And like many others, his body was never found. Now, it is the unenthusiastic workers and peasants forcibly mobilized to fight.

There are several narratives about the relationship between father and son. Olena Cherninka, Stselnikov’s estranged wife, posted this to facebook on September 3:

(Paywall with free option.)

https://eventsinukraine.substack.com/p/ ... iy-whacked

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From Russian social media: Polish fake-coms..

It's also worth starting to listen to Russian commentators. They, like ordinary Poles, have no interest in a war with Poland. Just a bunch of Tusk and Applebaum-Sikorski!

Dr. Ignacy Nowopolski
Sep 12, 2025

Neither the periphery, nor now Poland, is ashamed to lie openly, unaware that the lie will be exposed anyway. Everyone knows that the drone attack on Poles is a sham and a provocation; only one country carried out this attack, benefiting from drawing Poland into a confrontation with Russia. There's no need to say out loud which country it is – Ukraine!

However, the Poles took advantage of this situation, or perhaps they acted in tandem, and decided to inflame the atmosphere by saying that Russia was very bad for attacking poor Poland, and published a photo of a house allegedly destroyed by a Russian drone.

A widely circulated photo of the destruction of a house in Poland, allegedly damaged by a Russian drone attack, has been denied by the residents themselves.

Residents noticed that the house was severely damaged in a storm two months ago and its condition has remained unchanged since then...

Overall, it was immediately clear that it was a setup, since they themselves admitted that the foam drones had no warheads or even video cameras... There were no comments from living Polish witnesses, no video recordings showing the flight and fall of the drones were shown – all this in the age of the internet.

So let them pack their own pasta!

1. All drones were carefully placed on the ground or on garden objects without causing any damage.

2. A handful of earth was thrown at each drone.

3. Almost all drones whose photos were published in Poland have the same broken nose.

4. There are no witnesses.

5. There are no photos or videos of civilian casualties on social media.

6. The message was published at 7 a.m. Polish time, the sun was already high in the photo, it is darker in Poland at this time.

7. The destroyed house looks like it was the result of a storm.

8. On many drones the numbers are not visible.

9. Gerberas are usually marked with one letter "y", but in the photo apart from this letter there are a lot of numbers)))

10. There is no photo of a single downed drone, even though they were shot down by multi-million dollar missiles.

Result: This is a carefully planned action aimed at shifting the blame onto Russia, carried out jointly with Ukrainians, aimed at drawing NATO troops closer to the borders of the Russian Federation, gradual presence of NATO troops in Ukraine (e.g. "training Poles in shooting down unmanned aerial vehicles").

In all this, the pig's snout can be seen from a mile away...

Everything has its time...

Source: https://cont.ws/@Taksist1964/3118484

https://drignacynowopolski.substack.com ... nosciowych

Google Translator

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The Five Most Likely Outcomes From The Russian Drone Incursion Into Poland
Andrew Korybko
Sep 12, 2025

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Some commentators on both sides think that this might lead to World War III.

NATO forces directly intercepted Russian drones for the first time since the special operation began after some of them veered into Poland earlier this week, with this unprecedented incident arguably being due to NATO jamming as explained here. Some commentators on both sides think that this might lead to World War III, but that’s a far-fetched scenario since NATO isn’t expected to kinetically respond by bombing Russia (even just Kaliningrad) and/or Belarus. The five most likely outcomes are actually that:

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* The “EU Defense Line” Becomes A “Drone Wall”

The “Baltic Defense Line” and Poland’s “East Shield”, which are collectively known as the “EU Defense Line” that functions as the new Iron Curtain, might soon be outfitted with cutting-edge anti-drone capabilities as suggested by European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen. She spoke about creating an “Eastern Flank Watch” that would also become a “drone wall”, which the Baltic States have wanted for a while, and it makes sense to expand this program in both directions to Poland and Finland.

* Poland Expands Its Military Influence In The Baltics

As the most populous and prosperous formerly communist country in Central Europe, which has already built the third-largest army in NATO, Poland could easily expand its military influence over the region on the pretext of “defending against Russia”. New President Karol Nawrocki implied over the summer that the “Three Seas Initiative” would be the means towards this end and even declared during his latest trip to Lithuania that “we are responsible for entire region of Central Europe, including the Baltic States”.

* The US Expands Its Military Presence In Poland

Poland has been asking for more US troops for years, and Trump seemed willing to satisfy this request when he said during Nawrocki’s visit last month that “We'll put more there if they want.” That might be what he had in mind when he tweeted “Here we go!” on Wednesday. As was assessed earlier this year, “Poland Is Once Again Poised To Become The US’ Top Partner” and “Trump Is Unlikely To Pull All US Troops Out Of Central Europe Or Abandon NATO’s Article 5”, so this is within the realm of possibility.

* Poland Host Elements Of A NATO Sky Shield…

Less likely but nonetheless still possible is that Poland hosts elements of a NATO Sky Shield, whether for protecting the bloc’s eastern flank and/or extending this umbrella into Western Ukraine, the latter of which aligns with a proposed security guarantee. The 10,000 US troops in Poland might reassure it that Russia would be deterred from deliberately targeting these assets, not to mention if even more are deployed, but public opinion might keep this shield centered on Poland instead of shared with Ukraine.

* …But That’s As Far As Its Response Will Go

Regardless of whatever happens with the aforesaid scenario, Poland won’t go any further by deploying troops to Ukraine for example, which Nawrocki ruled out. Despite occasional speculation, Poland has no revanchist plans since it doesn’t want to be responsible for millions of ultra-nationalist Ukrainians, who could also wage a terrorist insurgency against its troops. It’s already exploring the lease of land and ports to recoup its aid and even profit so there’s no need to take such risks, including a hot war with Russia.

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All in all, Poland is expected to avoid the trap of mission creep after last week’s incident, having already concluded some time ago that the potential benefits of escalating its involvement in the Ukrainian Conflict even further than it already has aren’t worth the risks. The most that Poland expected to do is host elements of a NATO Sky Shield, but its extension into Ukraine during wartime or afterwards would likely only happen if the US gives Poland security guarantees, which Trump doesn’t seem interested in.

https://korybko.substack.com/p/the-five ... comes-from
"There is great chaos under heaven; the situation is excellent."

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Re: Footnotes from the Ukrainian "Crisis"; New High-Points in Cynicism Part V

Post by blindpig » Sat Sep 13, 2025 11:45 am

"Finally on our side": Trump's demands on the European Union
Posted by @nsanzo ⋅ 09/13/2025

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“We were supposed to receive sanctions, but instead we received Alaska. Since then, the attacks have intensified. I hope Trump keeps his promises,” he said yesterday in an appearance on Fox News , the favorite television station of US President Radek Sikorski. Following the incursion of 19 drones, many, if not all, of them simple decoys without explosives, the Polish Foreign Minister has this week acquired the prominence he so enjoys, which he uses to place his belligerent message in the mainstream media. Sikorski's position, always smiling when talking about the war, perfectly represents that of the European establishment , willing to keep the Ukrainian conflict active until it achieves a better negotiating position, but reluctant to participate in it. The radical Polish foreign minister, married to Anne Applebaum, a journalist with even more radical anti-Russian views, stood out in September 2022 for being more explicit than the rest—he was not a public official at the time—in celebrating the attack on the Nord Stream gas pipeline instead of denouncing the crime by accusing Russia. “Thank you, America,” he wrote at the time, expressing a point of view that has now become widespread, when it is already clear that Moscow cannot be implicated in the attack: considering something positive that would have been classified as an act of international terrorism if Russian guilt could have been proven.

Currently, Sikorski fully identifies with the sectors that advocate increasing military supplies to Ukraine, eliminating all restrictions on the use of weapons, and encouraging attacks in Russia to bring the war to the doorstep of the Russian population, who apparently deserve such collective punishment. However, Sikorski has not tired of denying reports that over the past few months have suggested that Poland would join the Big Three—Germany, the United Kingdom, and France—in sending troops to Ukraine as part of the "Coalition of the Willing" mission. The Polish minister even refuted General Kellogg, who assumed Warsaw's participation in this mission, which remains hypothetical. Poland argues that it is too close to Russia to allocate part of its forces to any mission other than defending the country's borders—generally from migrants, not from a Russian invasion that it knows will never arrive—an attitude that, in general terms, can be defined as an attempt to keep the war going, but expect others to do the fighting. The same can be said for the political process through which European countries and Ukraine hope the United States will hand them victory over Russia on a silver platter.

This was evident last May, when Germany, France, the United Kingdom, and Poland issued a 48-hour ultimatum demanding that Russia begin peace negotiations. Otherwise, Moscow would feel the consequences. In reality, with virtually nothing left to sanction and no military capacity to supply Ukraine with weapons for use in Russia—even the French and British Scalp and Storm Shadow missiles require Washington's approval as they contain American components—those consequences have always depended on the United States. Russia avoided the retaliation European leaders had warned of because, at the time, Donald Trump remained optimistic about being able to bring about a quick end to the war. The episode revealed the lack of European strategic autonomy and highlighted its weakness, an image that has been repeated over the weeks, culminating in the Oval Office photograph, in which a bored Donald Trump lectured the handful of continental leaders willing to endure any humiliation if the reward was a more favorable position from the American leader. During this time, the European Union has accepted the tariffs the United States has imposed on its products, opened its market to US sectors that do not comply with the bloc's legislation, and made commitments Brussels cannot make, such as the acquisition of hundreds of billions of euros in military equipment and energy, something it has no jurisdiction to undertake, as that is the responsibility of individual companies and their respective countries. All this is to ensure Donald Trump's happiness and thereby buy the support European countries need to continue the war in Ukraine until kyiv is deemed to have achieved a position of strength that can force Russia to negotiate on Western terms.

“A coalition of European leaders has convinced US President Donald Trump that Russia is not interested in ending the war in Ukraine and must be forced to the negotiating table. Now they must persuade an unpredictable White House to agree on how to achieve it,” Politico reported yesterday , suggesting, with some optimism, that the European countries have achieved what they have been seeking for months. “Trump finally wants to put pressure on Russia,” the outlet headlined, adding, however, that “now comes the hard part.” The terms being used are already representative. The idea of ​​forcing Russia to the negotiating table is continually emphasized, something Moscow did months ago and reminiscent of the demands made by Kaja Kallas and other continental leaders to Iran, when Tehran was engaged in diplomacy and believed its interlocutor, Washington, was negotiating in good faith. Iran was not only at the negotiating table, making proposals that implied significant concessions, but it also responded to European calls even after being attacked by the United States and Israel. Its status as a nuclear power protects Russia from the treatment suffered by its Middle Eastern ally, bombed by the B2 missiles sent by Donald Trump. However, the mentions of forcing the country to negotiate have the same meaning: it is not about negotiating, since there isn't even a diplomatic process to address the political and military issues of the war, but rather about Russia abiding by the terms imposed on it. Trump's disappointment with Vladimir Putin is not due to the continuation of the bombings, something inevitable given that no diplomatic process is in sight and, on the contrary, there is increased Western support for the production of Ukrainian weapons with which to attack Russian territory. Trump's anger, which ebbs and flows, to the chagrin of continental leaders who remain uncertain about what to expect, stems from Russia's refusal to accept the terms that the United States believed would make resolving this war easy. Unwilling to see that Moscow's priority is security, Washington has only been able to offer Russia a territorial pact— de facto , not even de jure —in exchange for a peace that would involve the presence of NATO countries in Ukraine. Trump's frustration stems from his own inability to resolve a conflict he doesn't understand. However, the reason for his anger is unimportant to European countries, who are happy to finally see some results from their American ally.

Despite the disappointment among leaders and analysts that the US president has given credence to the possibility that the Russian drone incursion in Poland was a simple mistake, Trump's stance is once again shifting toward seeking sanctions against Russia. After guaranteeing an increase in military supplies by agreeing with Washington on a mechanism under which European countries provide the financing and the United States sells the weapons, taking the profit, the main interest of London, Paris, Berlin, and Brussels is the economic war against Russia, in which the role of the White House is indispensable.

“A series of diplomatic visits over the past week has brought together senior officials from both sides of the Atlantic to discuss new financial restrictions and plans to cut off the flow of Russian oil and gas. A high-level EU technical team was even sent to Washington to work on the details of the proposals, the main objectives of which are mutually agreed upon, officials and diplomats said,” Politico reports , quoting a European official as explaining that “Trump is finally on our side. The question is how to reconcile the two approaches.” European countries, which publicly boast of preparing the 19th sanctions package, privately realize that only the United States can impose measures that seriously damage the Russian economy.

“And while there is broad consensus on the need to pressure Putin to come to the negotiating table, the Trump administration prefers to use trade tools like tariffs to drain the Kremlin’s war funds, while the EU is pushing for formal sanctions on companies and financial institutions that do business with Moscow,” writes Politico . “We are ready to go, ready to go right now, but we will only do so if our European partners join us,” the Financial Times quotes a US official as saying, referring to the increased sanctions against Russia. Another member of the US administration who spoke to the outlet adds that the US is prepared to match any tariffs the European Union imposes on India and China. This statement is questionable, given that Washington continues to negotiate with China and has not dared to impose sanctions on Beijing in retaliation for continued Russian energy purchases. According to the Financial Times , “Donald Trump has demanded that the European Union impose tariffs of up to 100% on India and China as part of a joint effort to increase pressure on Russia to end its war in Ukraine.”

The US demand is a triple blow to the European Union. On the one hand, Brussels would have to give up one of its hallmarks, at least in theory. Despite obvious forms of protectionism, Ursula von der Leyen has argued in the past that "tariffs are taxes," and the EU has defined itself as a trade and export bloc opposed to tariffs. Secondly, sanctioning the two largest countries on the planet, one of them the world's second-largest power and the bloc's main trading partner, would be a huge own goal for Brussels, which needs Beijing more than China needs the European Union. And above all, forcing the bloc to impose these tariffs against countries that continue to purchase Russian crude oil—something the EU also does through third countries—a measure that would have significant economic consequences, would confirm its absolute subordination to the interests of the United States. As a coup de grâce, "Energy Secretary Chris Wright landed in Brussels on Thursday for a series of meetings, where he hoped to hammer out the details of an agreement reached between Trump and von der Leyen for the European Union to purchase an additional $750 billion worth of American gas, oil, and nuclear fuel." Aware that these promises were not made by the European Commission but by individual countries and companies, von der Leyen believed she was signing a toast to the sun whose fulfillment the United States is now preparing to demand.

Before the Russian invasion, Trump demanded that the EU give up the Nord Stream-2 pipeline, which was still under construction. In September 2022, Radek Sikorski thanked the United States for destroying the gas pipeline, which never came into operation. By doing so, the EU voluntarily gave up a cheap energy source that Washington now demands it replace with its more expensive energy products. With the EU's subordination to the interests of the United States guaranteed, eager to profit while watching from a distance as European countries bleed to death by keeping the war in Ukraine ongoing, Washington also demands that Brussels commit economic suicide by closing its market to China and India. This is the price it wants to make Brussels pay to finally give it what it has been begging for for three and a half years: the support it needs for a new economic offensive against Russia. If there is anything left of the European economy by then.

https://slavyangrad.es/2025/09/13/por-f ... n-europea/

Google Translator

******

From Cassad's Telegram account:

Pipeline troops in action

In the Kupyansk direction, fighting continues in the city of the same name. Enemy OSINT resources report that the entry into the city was carried out, among other things, thanks to a pipe, similar to the battles for Sudzha .

The entrances to the pipe are allegedly located in the area of ​​Liman Pervy , controlled by the Russian Armed Forces since the first months after the start of the SVO. The enemy claims that the pipe is equipped with rest areas, and movement occurs on electric scooters and autonomous carts.

Presumably, the exits are located in the area of ​​Radkovka , where there is a gas station nearby. However, at the moment, the exact exit area, based on the available footage, cannot be determined. One way or another, the dissemination of accurate information will harm the ongoing operation of Russian troops. The second video, allegedly filmed in this pipe, is dated September 3.

At the same time, there is currently no information about a change in the situation in the Kupyansk direction in general and in Kupyansk in particular. If the data on the direct work of Russian drone operators in the city is correct, then the "flag-strikes" for the enemy in Kupyansk are fraught with great losses. Therefore, unlike the same Moskovka , the enemy here does not seek to somehow indicate its presence.

@rybar

***

Colonelcassad
After yesterday's hysteria about a new operation with a pipeline, the Ukrainian Armed Forces have turned on the anti-crisis, saying that there are no Russian troops in Kupyansk, although there are already more than enough videos with the presence of Russian troops in Kupyansk. This is roughly like during the exit from the pipeline near Sudzha, when the Ukrainian Armed Forces declared for the first couple of days that "the pipeline is under control" and "the operation with the pipeline ended unsuccessfully."

***

Colonelcassad
A three-year-old Russian citizen has been added to the database of the extremist Ukrainian website "Peacemaker" .

The personal data of the child, born in April 2022, was added to the database for allegedly deliberately violating the state border of Ukraine and attempting to undermine the territorial integrity and sovereignty of the country.

This is not the first time that the personal data of minors has been published on the website. Five more Russian children aged between five and 16 were previously added to the database for the same charges.

***

Forwarded from
RT in Russian
RT spoke with the same fighter with the call sign Celentano, who, seriously wounded, held the fortification with his comrades for eight days, almost without food and water. We asked about the situation at the front.

He emphasizes that now is not the time for our army to stop: "Because the enemy will prepare, he has a strong network of sabotage and reconnaissance groups. And we will lose something from this, and the war can break out again."

"The enemy is now seriously weakening - and everywhere, and we, on the contrary, need to increase our momentum even more, look for reserves and move forward. We need to push them to the Dnieper, far from our borders," he added.

According to Celentano , the Ukrainian Armed Forces are indeed “awaiting” winter with horror:

"Moroz is our ally. They may somehow hold out until February, but the enemy will have to radically resolve the issue in order to stop us and negotiate. They have problems with weapons, supplies, and manpower, which are exacerbated in the cold.

There are almost no trained mercenaries left in the Ukrainian Armed Forces, many old men are fighting. Now they are using technology against us, this is the only way they can somehow hold out. But when you go into close combat, the Ukrainians run away. They have no spirit."


As for the possible end of the SVO, according to the soldier, there are two opinions among the military on the front lines: "Some say that everything will continue for another two years. I think that by February 2026 everything will be over after some agreements."

https://t.me/s/boris_rozhin

Google Translator

******

Brief Frontline Report – September 12th, 2025

Report by Marat Khairullin and Mikhail Popov.
Zinderneuf
Sep 12, 2025

The Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation reports: "Units of the 'East' Group, as a result of offensive actions, have established control over the settlement of Novopetrovskoye (Ternovoe on previous maps*) in the Dnepropetrovsk region"

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The Russian Armed Forces continue to destroy a major defense node of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the Dnepropetrovsk region, which consists of two areas:

1. Velykomykhailivka-Orestopil, which our assault troops are approaching from two directions: from the east near the settlement of Novoselovka and from the southeast from the settlement of Sosnovka, liberated yesterday.

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2. Berezovoe - Kalynovskoe - Novonikolaevka, located south of the first (on the left flank of the advancing Russian Armed Forces units in the Dnepropetrovsk region).

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In the settlements of Novopetrovskoye/Ternovoe (47°53′06″N 36°32′03″E, about 300 residents), the enemy had established forward positions covering the approach to Berezovoe. Having taken Sosnovka, our assault troops cut off the southern district and, gaining access to the Ternovaya (Thorny) and Ryadovaya ravines, created a threat of complete encirclement of the enemy in Novopetrovskoye, forcing them to retreat deeper into defensive positions.

Completing the task of destroying the Velikomikhailovka (Velykomyhaylovka)- Novonikolaevka node will allow the Russian Armed Forces to occupy advantageous positions north of the Gulyaipole (Hulyaipole, found in the southwest corner of the map) section of the Ukrainian Armed Forces' defense. Controlling the interfluve of the Voronaya and Yanchur rivers and having a "springboard" position in Malynovka, the Russian Armed Forces will create a threat of deep envelopment to the Ukrainian Armed Forces units located in the Novogrigorovka (Novohryhorovka)- Uspenovka - Poltavka area, which covers the city of Gulyaipole from the northeast.

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*Novopetrovskoye, in recent years, was renamed Ternovoe by the Ukrainians.

https://maratkhairullin.substack.com/p/ ... tember-bcc

******

Russian Drones Allegedly Swarm Poland in Major Provocation...But Whose?
Simplicius
Sep 11, 2025

Last Sunday Russia launched a large-scale drone attack that was again described as the “largest ever” with some sources counting 805 total drones and decoys launched:

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It was followed up on Tuesday with another large attack of over 400+ drones and 50+ various missiles. This strike stood out as a significant number of these drones reportedly flew to Poland, and quite deep into the interior of the country at that, which has never happened before.

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As always there were two versions of the story, the “topside” propagandized one where Polish and NATO officials tried their best to carve out an angle of deliberate Russian ‘aggression’, not letting the incident go to waste. And then there was the ‘behind-the-scenes’ version, which painted the incident as much more ‘controlled’ than it seemed, where diplomatic channels calmly coordinated the response.

More specifically, Belarus was said to have warned Poland that wayward drones—which were being affected by Ukrainian EW—were headed their way, with reports even claiming some rogue drones had to be shot down over Belarusian territory as well.

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https://www.mk.ru/politics/2025/09/10/m ... onakh.html

The Chief of the General Staff of the Polish Armed Forces, General Wiesław Kukuła, announced that the Belarusian side warned Poland about drones approaching its territory.

In an interview on TVN24, he noted that such an attitude was surprising in the context of the tense situation at the land border. At the same time, he emphasized that the Polish side decided to make use of the provided information and did not abandon cooperation.

This is a good sign. Let us recall that in a conversation with Patrycjusz Wyżga on the program "Didaskalia," Colonel Piotr Krawczyk, former head of the Intelligence Agency (2016-2022), clearly stated that the West’s policy, including Poland’s, toward Belarus should be based on pragmatism to avoid pushing the country into Russia’s hands.


The incident was obviously very strange because, while a few errant Russian drones had maybe fallen over other countries here and there—after likely being jammed off their course—this has never happened in such a large scale. This heavily suggests something very fishy, in the way of either a false flag or a coordinated campaign; that is to say, something like an Israeli Stux-net or “pager” operation where a large amount of Russian drones are “tampered with” before hand, whether that’s by digital infection of firmware via virus, or something else.

There were several signs pointing to the ‘false flag’ explanation, for instance a photo of a Russian drone that landed on a Polish “chicken coop” that shows the drone taped together with literal duct tape—click the first photo to enlarge:

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This is important because Ukraine was known to have been collecting previously-downed Russian drones in order to “creatively” reuse them for such a purpose. So a previously-destroyed or damaged drone could perhaps need some “work” to make it look whole for the ‘presentation’.

Additionally, Polish homes presented as “destroyed” by Russian drones were outed by citizens as houses that were damaged long ago by natural disasters:

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A widely circulated photo of the destruction of a house in Poland, allegedly damaged by a Russian drone strike, is refuted by local residents, who note that this house was heavily damaged during a storm two months ago and its condition has not changed since then. - FRWL

If that wasn’t enough, there was this post from two days before the attack which predicted Ukraine was getting ready for a big drone-related ‘provocation’:

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"Post from 09/08/2025 on the "Cartel" channel warning about the preparation of a provocation involving the sending of "pseudo-Russian" UAVs to the West. Actually, the plan was already carried out on September 10."

But how do we reconcile the fact that Belarus essentially admitted that wayward Russian drones were flying to Poland with this false flag angle? More likely it was a combination of all possible tactics, from real jammed drones to “prepared” ones that were made to look like they originated from Russia, as well as an information campaign to distribute fakes like the earlier ‘destroyed home’.

One explanation:

In Poland, the wreckage of 12 Gerber UAVs was found during the day. All without a warhead, did not explode. Expensive missiles costing more than $ 2 million each were used to destroy some of them. In particular, the F-35A of the Dutch Air Force worked like this.

The most popular version is that the "Gerber" "mismatch" encountered a GPS blockade over one of Ukraine's air defense areas and flew to Poland (spoofing?). Gerbers are not equipped with 16-element CRPA antennas (ed: these are the special 16-element Komet GPS receivers now regularly seen in Shahed/Geran drones).

According to the second version, the Gerbers were launched from Ukraine. This version is supported by the large number of Gerber products, which exceeds 1,000. This is not typical for them.


The intent is obvious: another desperate ploy from Zelensky to get NATO involved, even if in small stepwise fashion. The latter almost worked, as Poland made some performative fuss about invoking NATO’s “Article Four” on ‘consultations’.

It turned out that most Poles, however, blamed Ukraine over Russia, astutely aware of Ukraine’s cheap stratagems in trying to drag their country into war:

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Trump again sounded off with a major dose of hypocrisy:

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Sure, he professed ‘disagreement’ with Israel’s strikes on Qatar prior to that, but he didn’t quite react with the same faux-outrage; that’s not to mention the US having admitted having foreknowledge of the Qatar attacks, which implies a kind of tacit approval of them.

Other even more humorous performative displays were witnessed:

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But the most telling narrative around the so-called Russian drone incursion was covered by a slew of articles which pointed to the sheer material cost incurred in attempting to stop these cheap Russian drones:

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https://archive.ph/v8gwM

Poland was shooting down cheap Russian drones with missiles costing 400,000 euros each yesterday, reports Bild.

They managed to shoot down exactly 3 drones out of 25, the fourth possibly crashed on its own.

They were shot down by two F-35 fighters with AIM-9 Sidewinder missiles. The price of a drone is several thousand euros, which is hundreds of times less than the price of the missile used to shoot it down.

"In the long term, using F-35s against drones makes no military sense," said a senior NATO officer.

Therefore, NATO is already considering other options to counter drones.

Bild writes that Germany currently does not have sufficient resources to effectively combat drones flying at low altitudes.


As another wake up call for NATO, what we learned is that NATO’s supposed most militarily active European ‘power’ was able to only shoot down four out of 25 drones, according to PM Tusk. They did this using extremely advanced and expensive platforms like the F-35. From the BILD piece above:

The F-35 fighter pilots fought the drones with AIM-9 Sidewinder missiles. The problem: firing a missile costs more than €400,000—to shoot down a drone that costs just a few thousand euros.

Recall that NATO also has AWACS and other such major assets patrolling the Polish-Ukrainian border and yet were still hardly able to stop a measly 19-drone attack, by their own admission? Depending on how many of those were actually real, one might conclude a real Russian attack on a NATO state with hundreds of drone, as done in Ukraine, would overwhelm them with ease. Recall that even Patriot missile-armed Qatar was unable to stop Israel’s strikes, claiming the attacks were “not detected” by their systems—a kind of telling admission.

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The drone breach in fact sent Western military ‘experts’ into a frenzy of alarm:

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https://www.spiegel.de/ausland/russland ... b11dd3b2ca

It is interesting that it happens to coincide with Ukrainian Minister of Defense Denys Shmygal’s new admission that Ukraine has lost its advantage in FPVs on the frontline: (Video at link.)

That is to say that as a general threat, Russia is increasingly considered as a kind of terrifyingly unmatched drone superpower in the eyes of the hapless and helpless NATO munchkin-states.

By the way, I point you to the official Russian MOD statement about the Polish incursion, which is interesting:

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“There were no intentions to engage targets in Poland” seems worded in an ambiguous enough way as to suggest that perhaps the drones did fly there unintentionally—the only question is how or why.

But the real reason this latest debacle is of particular interest is that tomorrow the long-awaited and long-feared Russian-Belarus Zapad 2025 exercises are kicking off.

A brief history: Zapad, which means West, has long been the premiere Soviet and Russian series of exercises which typically happen only once every four years, and are the largest and most ambitious, often utilizing hundreds of thousands of troops, and are meant to simulate defensive war against NATO.

The most famous of these was the 1981 Zapad, which was the largest in history. It continues to echo and send pangs of fear through the West to this day.



More recently, of course, the Zapad 2021 exercises in September 2021 were used as precursor to the SMO, at least according to NATO.

Four years later the Zapad 2025 series is kicking off, and it has been chattered about since last year, with various rumors and predictions about Russia potentially launching another massive Kiev assault from within Belarus under the exercise’s cover.

So, under the looming cloud of these exercises, and on the heels of the recent drone incursion, Poland is reportedly dispatching 40-50k troops to the Belarusian border, sending sensationalists into swoons of alarm:

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https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl ... ttack.html

'Poland has been preparing for the Zapad-2025 exercises for many months,' Poland's Deputy Minister of National Defence, Cezary Tomczyk, told Polsat News television late Wednesday.

'Polish and NATO soldiers are needed to adequately respond to Zapad-2025,' he said, adding: 'This is where the war in Ukraine began. Therefore, the Polish army is preparing for this. In the coming days, we will have about 40,000 soldiers at the border.'


Of course, though the alarmists may be hyping things up for propaganda purposes, the truth is that some danger does lie in the potential for provocations to occur. It would be elementary for Ukraine to launch some kind of false flag, knowing tens of thousands of Polish troops are chafing at the border on a tense hair-trigger. In fact, it’s quite plausible that the “coincidental” drone attack on Poland was engineered precisely to raise the temperature and stoke the flames right on the eve of these exercises in order to prep the oven for tensions to be ignited further with some triggering ‘event’.

Most likely, nothing will happen. Belarus has just boosted its relationship with the US when Trump’s delegation was warmly received by Lukashenko for meetings yesterday. Trump even sent Lukashenko a gift of White House-adorned cufflinks and an additional gesture of goodwill in the form of lifting sanctions on Belarus’ state airline Belavia, which would facilitate a convenient new legal transit point from the US to Russia via Minsk.

(Video at link.)
BREAKING: Donald Trump has lifted US sanctions on Belarus’ state airline Belavia.

Direct flights from Minsk to the United States are set to resume, following talks in Minsk between President Alexander Lukashenko and Trump’s envoy John Cole.


This is all after Trump had called Lukashenko a “very respected man, a strong person and strong leader.”

Given that Trump still has not acted on any of his hollow threats against Russia, we can assume Trump continues to seek rapprochement with Russia and its bloc and would not be a part of any provocations surrounding the Zapad exercises. It’s left to Zelensky’s devious chicanery to determine what happens, as the temptation to use the exercises to engineer a clash between Russia and the West must surely be high amongst Zelensky’s clique, particularly Budanov and his ilk.



A couple quick last items:

Many believe just because there is no visible proof all the time, that Russia is not actively destroying Ukrainian air defenses, particularly the Patriot and other ‘top shelf’ European ones like IRIS-T, etc. Here we have another recent report from Ukraine’s own sources of Patriot battery personnel taken out by a Russian strike:

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As I had written on X of the above description of the attack:

Wow that's a really roundabout way of saying he was hit by an Iskander.

"The downed debris from a ballistic missile was heading toward his Patriot battery, he rushed to put out the fire but then the warhead of the downed Iskander exploded."




Similarly, another Ukrainian fighter jet and pilot were quietly taken out earlier:

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Today during a combat mission, a Ukrainian Su-27 aircraft crashed – Major Oleksandr Mykolayovych Borovyk, a pilot of the 39th Tactical Aviation Brigade, died. -- AFU

https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/rus ... arm-poland

******

Interceptor drone
September 12, 23:05

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Unmanned revolution.
There are also such garage developments...
How effective against "Baba Yaga" or other drones is still unknown.

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/10067866.html

Prince Harry and the achievements of the British government
September 13, 12:53

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Prince Harry and the achievements of the British government.

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/10068296.html

Google Translator

******

Open season for false-flag provocations as NATO and Kiev regime get desperate

September 12, 2025

Russia was blamed in a damning outcry, yet the circumstances incriminate NATO’s Ukrainian client.

This week saw two false-flag provocations back-to-back, orchestrated by the NATO-sponsored Kiev regime. Tellingly, before any considered response was given by Russia or independent observers, European politicians were shutting down open discussion, warning about expected Russian lies and disinformation.

In other words, no critical examination of the incidents is permitted. These were “barbaric” and “reckless attacks” by Russia… take our [NATO] word for it, and if you don’t, then you are a Russian stooge.

Polish Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski hammed it up in a video statement, denouncing Russian aggression, and dogmatically telling everyone to trust only NATO government information. Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk was competing in hysteria, claiming Europe was closer to all-out conflict than at any time since World War II. This points to how the European information space has become totally dominated by war propaganda in a way that George Orwell or Josef Goebbels would marvel at.

So, what happened this week?

Poland is claiming that Russia deliberately targeted its sovereign territory with 19 drones. European NATO allies are subsequently scrambling to deploy warplanes and air defenses to “protect Poland”. September is the month that Nazi Germany attacked Poland 86 years ago, kicking off World War II. That bit of timing perhaps lends a nostalgic flourish to the present events, as Tusk seemed to be implying with his melodramatic words.

The day before the much-hyped “drone invasion,” on September 9, the Kiev regime claimed Russia dropped one of its heavy FAB-500 aerial bombs on a village, killing 24 people who were collecting their pensions.

In both incidents, however, the evidence points to false-flag provocations for those who care to calmly examine the facts.

The alleged massacre in the village of Yarovaya in Ukrainian-held Donetsk oblast was not caused by a Russian FAB-500 bomb. The Kiev regime’s videos purporting to show the aftermath indicated a shallow impact crater and limited damage to nearby buildings. The explosion could not have been caused by a 250-kg Russian aerial bomb; otherwise, the entire area would have been devastated around a huge crater. The Russian MoD also said its forces were not operating in the vicinity on that date.

The rapid posting of the videos by the Kiev regime and the evidently scripted claims alleging a Russian massacre, together with the unquestioning amplification of those unverified claims by the Western media, strongly point to an orchestrated narrative.

The grave implication is that the NATO-backed regime detonated an explosive, deliberately killing civilians as a way to incriminate Russia.

Such heinous conduct by this regime has numerous precedents. There have been many incidents over the past three years when the Ukrainian forces shelled their own territory, endangering civilian lives for propaganda scores against Russia, as a way to drum up more military and financial support from the Western sponsors. Two examples: the atrocity carried out in the village of Hroza on October 5, 2023, when 52 people were killed. It coincided with Kiev’s puppet leader, Vladimir Zelensky, pitching an appeal at an EU summit in Granada, Spain, for more aid.

The month before, on September 6, 2023, in the town of Konstantinovka in Ukrainian territory, an air strike killed 17 people. That coincided with former Secretary of State Antony Blinken visiting Kiev to announce $1 billion in additional U.S. aid.

In both incidents, Russia was blamed in a damning outcry, yet the circumstances incriminate NATO’s Ukrainian client. The atrocity this week involving the murder of the pensioners falls into the same despicable category.

The Kiev regime is a false-flag merchant of death. The notorious executions carried out in Bucha in March-April 2022 were another classic, vile stunt. We covered that in detail in a previous editorial, whereby Ukrainian civilians were murdered in cold blood by Kiev agents to disgrace Russia. To an extent, the stunt worked because Western media and politicians continue to accuse Russia of responsibility in complete disregard of the evidence. The Bucha false flag is relevant because it came at a crucial time when Russia had proposed a peace deal to end the conflict in Ukraine at an early stage. After the “massacre,” the NATO proxy war surged, and a peaceful settlement was scuppered.

This brings us to the present open season for false flags. One way to discern a provocation is to observe the reactions and how the incident is used to serve motives and demands.

First of all, the concerted and theatrical reactions of the Kiev regime and its European NATO backers were primed and ready to go, as if scripted.

In the alleged targeting of Poland, the drones were of Russian design. They were unarmed, surveillance, or decoy-type Gerbera models. Russia claims that the 700-kilometer range means they couldn’t have been launched from Russian-held territory. They could have been launched by Ukraine after it replicated the drones, an easy enough task. But here is the key. Some 19 unarmed drones were quickly intercepted in Polish airspace by multiple high-powered NATO weapons: Polish F-16 fighter jets, Dutch F-35s, Italian AWACS surveillance aircraft, NATO tanker re-fueling aircraft, and German Patriot missile systems. That speaks of a prepared full-scale mobilization to maximize the allegations of Russian violation. The image of a sledgehammer to crack a nut comes to mind.

Moscow has offered to hold discussions with Warsaw to figure out how ostensibly Russian-made drones entered Polish airspace, but the offer has been rebuffed. Poland has refused any reasonable discussion to establish the facts. Instead, it has invoked NATO’s Article IV for emergency security consultations with other members. The over-reaction smacks of drama to seemingly validate flaky claims of deliberate targeting.

The French, German, and British leaders have all clambered on board the wagon of condemning Russia for reckless violation without a shred of evidence. Note how they are all careful not to accuse Russia of “attack” but rather “violation”. That suggests they want a calibrated escalation but not all-out war, cowards that they are.

France’s Emmanuel Macron announced he was sending three Rafale fighter jets “to protect Polish airspace”. The Germans and the British are likewise charging to declare their support to defend Poland. It’s a charade of chivalry by a gang of clowns.

This is sheer theatrics of absurdity. Accusing Russia of planning to conquer Europe has been the worn-out propaganda narrative for the past nearly four years since NATO’s proxy war erupted in Ukraine. Russia has repeatedly said it has no intention of starting World War III, and that its sole purpose in Ukraine is to stop historic NATO aggression encroaching on its borders.

The euro elites are facing mounting political crises in their own states, largely incurred by the vast, wasteful spending on the failed proxy war in Ukraine. France, for one, is exploding with social tensions as nationwide street protests showed this week amid the sacking of a fourth prime minister in two years. Germany and Britain are not far behind in the meltdown stakes.

No doubt, the Euro elites and their Kiev puppet regime are desperate to divert public attention from the corruption and criminal machinations in Ukraine. U.S. President Donald Trump’s diplomatic effort to end the war, for all its shortcomings, is an unwelcome development for the European leaders because it exposes their pathetic position. Polish Foreign Minister Sikorski, while condemning Russia for “deliberately targeting” Poland, made a sneaky point by saying that Moscow was also “making a mockery of Trump’s peace efforts”. Sikorski and the European NATO cabal are trying to incite Trump to ramp up military aid to Ukraine and impose more sanctions on Russia as a way to sabotage any diplomacy. Desperation begets desperate measures, even if innocent civilians are murdered and world peace is put at risk.

https://strategic-culture.su/news/2025/ ... desperate/
"There is great chaos under heaven; the situation is excellent."

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Re: Footnotes from the Ukrainian "Crisis"; New High-Points in Cynicism Part V

Post by blindpig » Sun Sep 14, 2025 12:44 pm

Everything for war: resources, sanctions and historical references
Posted by @nsanzo ⋅ 09/14/2025

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“When the United States was attacked on this day in 2001, our NATO allies stood by us, even invoking Article 5 to declare war on al-Qaeda and the Taliban. At least today we should speak with one voice with our NATO ally, Poland. More sanctions should be applied to Russia and more weapons to Ukraine,” wrote Michael McFaul, a Stanford professor and US ambassador to Russia during the Obama era, on social media. The objective of his subtle message is clear: to use the coincidence between the incursion of 19 Russian drones into Polish airspace and the anniversary of the attacks in New York and Washington to achieve his political goals. Like a true lobbyist—McFaul is one half of the Ermak-McFaul Group, a pressure group seeking to impose coercive measures against Russia—the former diplomat seizes on an example that sparked international solidarity with the United States and the 2,997 deaths of September 11, 2001, and presents NATO's unity and action in the aftermath of those attacks as positive. When the argument is for direct NATO participation in the war, any argument is good, even what George W. Bush called the "war on terror."

“The total death toll from the violence wrought by the U.S.-led invasions of Afghanistan and Iraq, let alone the broader global war on terror, remains elusive,” The Washington Post wrote in 2023 , adding that it “has long since been surpassed by an even larger and more opaque figure: the indirect count of people who have died as a result of the far-reaching aftereffects of post-9/11 conflicts, including waves of violence, hunger, the devastation of public services and the spread of disease.” That article referenced a study by Brown University, whose “Cost of War” project indicated that “more than 940,000 people are estimated to have died as a direct result of post-9/11 war violence in Iraq, Afghanistan, Syria, Yemen, and Pakistan between 2001 and 2023. Of these, more than 432,000 were civilians. The number of people injured or sickened as a result of conflict is far higher, as is the number of civilians who died ‘indirectly’ as a result of the destruction of economies, health systems, infrastructure, and the environment caused by war. An estimated 3.6 to 3.8 million people have died indirectly in post-9/11 war zones, bringing the total death toll to at least 4.5 to 4.7 million, and the number is rising.” According to these data, the number of civilians killed in NATO's unity wars after September 11 would be 145 times higher than the number of people killed in those attacks, a ratio even higher than that of those killed in the Israeli massacre against Gaza after October 7 (53:1), which is being investigated as genocide.

The path forged by Michael McFaul, which does not deviate from that of the most belligerent hawks and is based on NATO's greater involvement in a war they insist must be considered existential, has two distinct aspects: weapons and sanctions. In Europe, Ukraine's continental allies continue their work to increase arms supplies, domestic production, and, above all, those future security guarantees that must include their presence on the ground, officially as a deterrent, but also as a way to claim the territory as their own, part of the EU and NATO sphere of influence. “Together with advisors from the United Kingdom, France, Germany, and Italy, we are implementing the Coalition of the Willing agreements reached in Paris. This is a show of solidarity with Ukraine, especially now that Russia is blocking any real negotiations and showing no desire for peace,” Andriy Ermak wrote yesterday, forgetting that Russia cannot block negotiations that don't exist and preferring not to admit that any Coalition of the Willing agreement depends on the country that invented it precisely for the war on terror , the United States.

“Russia will not stop alone. It is waging war against the entire free world. It can only be stopped with collective strength and solid guarantees. Only together can we achieve a just and lasting peace,” Ermak added, emphasizing the same idea used by his partner McFaul: unity. Like peace, a term used to mean victory, unity is also a euphemism for the participation of the United States, the indispensable country without which plans to bring Russia to a future negotiating table to accept the terms negotiated by Ukraine and its allies are impossible.

However, the terms currently being discussed go beyond the outcome of the war in Ukraine, as the European security architecture after a future ceasefire will depend on it . And while Russia demands a halt to NATO's expansion, the Alliance responds to what it presents as aggression against one of its members. On Friday, with few details, Mark Rutte and Alexus Grynkewhich, Supreme Allied Commander Europe, announced their Eastern Sentinel, a catchy name for what is, in reality, the continuation of the steady militarization of Eastern Europe since it was decided that the European security architecture should be built not only against what the war on terror called the "axis of evil," but also against Russia. In NATO's words, Eastern Sentinel is not a mission or an operation but "a military activity aimed at strengthening NATO's posture on the eastern flank." Despite the aggressive rhetoric this week, the Alliance has not invoked Article V of collective security in the event of an attack, as it is aware that one has not even occurred and that it is in the interest of all parties that the situation not escalate into the danger of a direct clash with Russia. For the moment, Eastern Sentinel is limited to the announcements of the dispatch to Poland of two Danish F-16s, three French Rafales, and four German Eurofighters, in addition to Rutte's promise that "this effort will also include elements designed to address the particular challenges associated with the use of drones." This is a further mobilization of resources to a country that has not been attacked and seeks to exaggerate the danger of a Russian attack as an argument to increase assistance to Ukraine and convince Donald Trump that Russia is in no way seeking peace but rather to expand the war.

“It gives the impression that residents of London or Madrid are safer than those of Tallinn. That is not true. Russia's newest missiles travel at speeds five times the speed of sound and arrive in London or Madrid only five or ten minutes later than in Tallinn or Vilnius,” Mark Rutte stated at the press conference. He criticized the idea of ​​​​describing NATO's external border as the “eastern flank,” not because it is an openly bellicose term even though war has not been declared on Russia, but because it is not bellicose enough. “Russian missiles will reach London as quickly as they will reach Tallinn,” the NATO Secretary General declared, using a formulation that assumes a future Russian war of aggression against NATO countries, which grants Moscow intentions it has never shown and capabilities it does not possess.

Along the same lines, and more explicit than usual, Mikhail Podolyak, intending to present the recipe that Ukraine hopes to implement, wrote that “Russia has shown that it will attack Europe until it receives a strong response. What is a strong response? The use of frozen Russian assets to finance the Ukrainian Armed Forces: approximately $380 billion, of which about $300 billion is held by Euroclear. This must be done regardless of Belgium's position on reputational risks. Financing of military production, a significant expansion of European purchases of anti-missile systems and missiles. A substantial increase in attacks on sensitive Russian infrastructure using Ukrainian and partner systems. Sanctions without exceptions, closing all schemes and circumvention routes.” In short, the advisor to the President's Office presents a scenario of total war with broad and direct attacks on Russia and massive financing of the war in Ukraine, a recipe that makes any agreement unviable and would condemn the conflict to an extremely dangerous escalation until only one remains.

Like all the approaches currently being pursued, the Podolyak solution requires active US involvement in arms supplies, permission for their use against Russian territory, and the imposition of sanctions. This is also the demand of the mainstream US media, which refuses to give up on continuing the common war against Russia in Ukraine. “Whether he knows it or not, Trump is playing with fire. Poland is a NATO ally and, as such, enjoys the treaty's guarantees. Guarantees are nothing more than pieces of paper until they are tested. Regardless of whether the drones were deliberately sent into Polish airspace, they have become a test of the allies' resolve. And Trump's cautious rhetoric risks suspending that test,” stated The Washington Post 's Friday editorial , which insists that “NATO has stepped up” and demands that Donald Trump do the same. “The American president could be equally frank. ‘The ability to go to the limit without going to war is a necessary art,’ John Foster Dulles famously said. ‘If not mastered, one inevitably goes to war,’” concludes the outlet, which, like Michael McFaul, refers to another historical figure, in this case known for his fervent anti-communism and known, among other things, for his operations to overthrow Guatemalan President Jacobo Arbenz in 1954 and Iranian Prime Minister Mohamed Mossadegh in 1953—neither communists, but overthrown for being so.

With historical examples of actions that caused millions of victims and seeking an even tougher war, the hardest sectors are appealing directly to Donald Trump, who yesterday confirmed on his personal social media account what media outlets such as Politico and the Financial Times had said: that he is willing to "impact massive sanctions against Russia when all NATO nations have agreed and begun to do the same and when all NATO nations STOP BUYING OIL FROM RUSSIA." As previously reported, Trump is also demanding the imposition of tariffs of 50% or 100% against China, a step that the European Union cannot afford, but which the US president presents as an essential prerequisite. As has happened in the past with the miracle weapons that Ukraine believed would be decisive in winning the war, or the sanctions of February 2022, which the European Union believed would destroy the Russian economy and make it impossible for the Kremlin to continue the war, Donald Trump is signing up to his own pipe dream. In this case, it's about tariffs against China, a country it attributes "strong control and even dominance over Russia," the measure it considers will be decisive in ending this "bloody but RIDICULOUS WAR." With no idea how to start a diplomatic process that the United States has failed to manage, the White House insists that this is not its war but that of "Biden and Zelensky," blaming its predecessor and Ukraine for starting the war and Russia for prolonging it, and eliminating incentives from its strategy, focusing solely on threats, which are directed not only at Moscow but also at Brussels.

https://slavyangrad.es/2025/09/14/todo- ... istoricas/

Google Translator

******

Brief Frontline Report – September 13th, 2025

Report by Marat Khairullin and Mikhail Popov.
Zinderneuf
Sep 13, 2025

The Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation reports: "As a result of offensive actions by the units of the 'East' Group, the settlement of Novonikolaevka in the Dnepropetrovsk region has been liberated."

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The Russian Armed Forces continue to destroy the southern defense area in the Dnepropetrovsk region of Ukraine (Berezovoe - Kalinovskoe - Novonikolaevka). Today, the enemy positions in the settlement of Novonikolaevka (47°50′44"N 36°29′54"E, about 150 residents) were taken under control. A radial route (yellow line) begins in Novonikolaevka, which passes through Kalinovskoe - Verbovoe - Vishnevoe - Egorovka (Ehorovka) and leads to two rocades running in the operational depth of the Ukrainian Armed Forces' defense:

a: the red line) the nearer, circular rocade Pokrovskoe (not on the map, but it is just up the road northwest of Vishnevoe)- Vishnevoe - Pervomayskoe - Uspenovka - Poltavka, running along the Yanchur riverbed;

b: the blue line) the ring road located westward Pokrovskoe - Danilovka - Dobropolye - Gulyaipole (Hulyayipole), running along the Gaychur riverbed.

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Having broken through the enemy's defense on the first line of cover for the nearer ring road (Berezovoe-Kalinovskoe area) and engaging the enemy in the northern defense area Velikomikhailovka (Velykomyhaylovka)- Orestopol, units of the "East" group will reach an operational space to make decisions about further actions. The most likely scenario is advancing along the radial route toward Vishnevoe (again, the yellow line), flanking enemy positions located to the north along the Voronaya river and positions located to the south on the watershed between the Grushevataya ravine (Grushevata Ravine on map 1, Pear Tree Beam on map 2) and the Yanchur river (follow the faded red arrows).

Considering that possibly some Russian Armed Forces units transferred from the Sumy direction are in reserve somewhere in these areas, a splitting strike from south to north (Malynovka to Uspenovka) is probable.

A very beautiful combination allowing our command to further develop gains depending on the enemy's reaction. In any development, the enemy is led, and the initiative belongs to our commanders.

https://maratkhairullin.substack.com/p/ ... tember-14a

******

Orlan-30: Aircraft carrier for FPV drones
September 13, 21:05

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Orlan-30: Aircraft carrier for FPV drones

In the context of the rapid evolution of combat operations, unmanned aircraft continue to surprise with new tactical solutions. One of the most interesting and effective innovations of recent times has been the use of the Russian reconnaissance UAV Orlan-30 (an improved version of the Orlan-10 aircraft-type UAV, in which the flight duration is increased to 18 hours, another feature is the integration of the drone into the fire control system of the Msta-S self-propelled gun: the drone is capable of transmitting the coordinates of detected targets directly to the gun and adjusting its fire) as a carrier and platform for launching kamikaze FPV drones.

The main limitation of the classic FPV drone is its small range, rarely exceeding 10-20 km. The new scheme solves this problem radically. The Orlan-30, capable of making long flights over distances of up to 600 km, acts as an "aircraft carrier". It delivers a compact attack drone directly to the attack line deep behind enemy lines, where it detaches and independently aims at the target. This allows it to hit previously inaccessible targets: communication nodes, fuel depots, manpower and equipment concentrations.

Photos of Orlan-30s with FPV drones suspended under their wings have already appeared in open sources and have been confirmed by sources in the military-industrial complex. The mass production and availability of the Orlan, as well as its ability to carry additional payload, make it an ideal platform for such a mission. The UAV can operate not only as a carrier, but also as a repeater, providing stable communication with the operator along the entire flight route.

This innovation clearly demonstrates the trend towards creating hybrid unmanned systems, where different types of drones do not compete, but enhance each other's capabilities. The reconnaissance aircraft turns into a strike complex, significantly increasing flexibility and range of action.

Using proven and mass platforms such as Orlan-30 for new tasks is a cost-effective solution that quickly changes the balance of power on the battlefield, forcing the enemy to look for new methods of countering already familiar systems.

https://t.me/Vestnik_news2/72 - zinc

One of the correct directions for the development of large drones.
Well, over time, these will already be drones with a swarm principle of use equipped with basic neural network AI.

War is the engine of progress.

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/10069443.html

(He sez that like 'progress' is always a good thing...)

Results of Iskander-M flights
September 13, 14:52

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A montage of footage of the arrival of the Iskander-M ballistic missile with a cluster warhead.
The missile explodes in the air, striking a large area with a huge number of striking elements.
It is extremely effective against manpower, cars, and light armored vehicles. The missile itself is an extremely difficult target for air defense systems.

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(Other images at link.)

Cutting https://t.me/infomil_live/20381

With the help of such missiles, among other things, they hunt for groups launching long-range UAVs deep into Russia. Over the past 2 weeks, 3 such groups have been covered.

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/10068560.html

Offensive operation of the RF Armed Forces 2023-2025
September 14, 9:00

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Offensive operation of the RF Armed Forces 2023-2025

On October 10, 2023, the offensive operation of the Russian Armed Forces began.
Over 23 months of the offensive, 6,568 km² (+ 367 km² by August 10, 2025) of territory came under the control of the Russian Armed Forces in the NVO zone, with a daily rate of advance of 9.37 km² (+ 0.16 km² by August 10) on average for the entire offensive.

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Graphs of territorial progress in various directions during the offensive of the Russian Armed Forces in the NVO zone by September 2025.

https://goo.gl/maps/4eum5C9giNDebgXf7 - map
https://t.me/creamy_caprice/9996 - zinc

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/10069986.html

Google Translator

(Can't read Russian? Me neither))

******

Ukraine - Trump Calls European's Sanction Bluff

In February 2025 the U.S. started talks with Russia over ending the war in Ukraine. The Europeans were against such talks. They were still dreaming of winning the lost war - of keeping control over Ukraine by providing it with security guarantees.

The Trump administration gave them a lecture in form of a catalog of questions. As I summarized the issue at that time:

The U.S. has recognized that there aren't enough troops, money or will to achieve a better negotiation position for what's left of Ukraine. The European 'elite' still fails to get that.
...
There are still dreams of 'security guarantees' which would be given to Ukraine after it files for peace or surrenders.
No such guarantees would make any sense. When peace is achieved there will be only one manner that can prevent a new outbreak of war: good behavior towards Russians and Russia by what will be left of Ukraine.
...
The U.S. negotiation team handed the Europeans a list of questions that will hopefully help them to come to grips with that ..
...
Here are the questions with answers by me in Italic:

1) What do you view as a Europe-backed security guarantee or assurance that would serve as a sufficient deterrent to Russia while also ensuring this conflict ends with an enduring peace settlement?
There is no Europe-backed guarantee possible that would be a 'sufficient deterrent'.

2) Which European and/or third countries do you believe could or would participate in such an arrangement?

Each could provide a few dozen soldiers (plus rotations). None has the size of forces and/or stamina to really commit to the mission.

Are there any countries you believe would be indispensable?

The U.S. - if it would give nuclear guarantees to prevent the eventual annihilation of any 'security guarantee' force.

Would your country be willing to deploy its troops to Ukraine as part of a peace settlement?

No!

3) If third country military forces were to be deployed to Ukraine as part of a peace arrangement, what would you consider to be the necessary size of such a European-led force?


...
The purpose and point of the six questions the U.S. gave to the Europeans was to induce some realist thinking:

Applying such one will come to the conclusion that nothing but a long term peace agreement, which does not necessitate 'guarantees', makes any sense.

But they still did not get it.

It took the Europeans seven month of highly publicized discussion to finally acknowledge that there was no way for them to provide Ukraine with 'security guarantees'. The only realistic variant they could think of was to threaten Russia with a nuclear war which they can't but did wanted the U.S. to do. The U.S. wont do that. Neither Trump nor any other U.S. president will agree to risk New York over Kiev.

But the Europeans still do not want to make peace. Their new idea was to push the U.S. to put more sanctions on Russia:

The European Union is sending a delegation to Washington to ready new joint sanctions against Russia, European Council President António Costa said Friday.
“We are working with the United States and other like-minded partners to increase our pressure through further direct and secondary sanctions,” Costa said at a press conference in the western Ukrainian city of Uzhhorod, following a meeting with President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.

Costa added “a European team is traveling to Washington, D.C. to work with our American friends” but did not reveal who would take part in the delegation.


The Trump administration is now copying the February idea of the catalog of question about security guarantees.

Trump is telling the Europeans "you jump first":

Donald J. Trump - @realDonaldTrump - Sep 12, 2025, 23:15 UTC
A LETTER SENT BY PRESIDENT DONALD J. TRUMP TO ALL NATO NATIONS AND, THE WORLD: “I am ready to do major Sanctions on Russia when all NATO Nations have agreed, and started, to do the same thing, and when all NATO Nations STOP BUYING OIL FROM RUSSIA. As you know, NATO’S commitment to WIN has been far less than 100%, and the purchase of Russian Oil, by some, has been shocking! It greatly weakens your negotiating position, and bargaining power, over Russia. Anyway, I am ready to “go” when you are. Just say when? I believe that this, plus NATO, as a group, placing 50% to 100% TARIFFS ON CHINA, to be fully withdrawn after the WAR with Russia and Ukraine is ended, will also be of great help in ENDING this deadly, but RIDICULOUS, WAR. China has a strong control, and even grip, over Russia, and these powerful Tariffs will break that grip. This is not TRUMP’S WAR (it would never have started if I was President!), it is Biden’s and Zelenskyy’s WAR. I am only here to help stop it, and save thousands of Russian and Ukrainian lives (7,118 lives lost last week, alone. CRAZY!). If NATO does as I say, the WAR will end quickly, and all of those lives will be saved! If not, you are just wasting my time, and the time, energy, and money of the United States. Thank you for your attention to this matter! DONALD J. TRUMP, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA.”


Like with the catalog of questions about security guarantees Trump is trying to induce some realist thinking into the boneheaded European 'elite'.

Nearly every country in Europe is still consuming Russian oil. It is either bought directly from Russia or through Turkey or India. Europe can not put high tariffs on China or India. The responses from those countries would be devastating for Europe's economies.

There is no way to sanction Russia, directly or indirectly, into ending the war.

Trump knows this. It is why he is calling the Europeans bluff.

We can only hope that they will learn from it ...

Posted by b on September 13, 2025 at 14:34 UTC | Permalink

https://www.moonofalabama.org/2025/09/u ... .html#more

No, given that Trump finally understood that "Nyet means Nyet' he's just trying to fashion an exit that doesn't leave him smelling like the skunk that he is.

*****

Pipeline troops in action
September 13, 2025
Rybar

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In the Kupyansk direction, fighting continues in the city of the same name. Enemy OSINT resources report that the entry into the city was carried out, among other things, thanks to a pipe, similar to the battles for Sudzha .

The entrances to the pipe are allegedly located in the area of ​​Liman Pervy , controlled by the Russian Armed Forces since the first months after the start of the SVO. The enemy claims that the pipe is equipped with rest areas, and movement occurs on electric scooters and autonomous carts.

The exits are presumably located in the Radkovka area , where there is a gas station nearby. However, at the moment, the exact exit area cannot be determined based on the available footage.

One way or another, the dissemination of accurate information will harm the ongoing operation of Russian troops. The second video, allegedly filmed in this pipe, is dated September 3.

At the same time, there is currently no information about changes in the situation in the Kupyansk direction in general and in Kupyansk in particular. If the data on the direct work of Russian drone operators in the city is correct, then "flag-strikes" for the enemy in Kupyansk are fraught with major losses.

Therefore, unlike in Moskovka , the enemy here does not seek to indicate its presence in any way.

https://rybar.ru/truboprovodnye-vojska-v-dele/
Google Translator

*****

"Who wrote the four million denunciations?"

"Who wrote the four million denunciations?"
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Ukrainians are ratting on each other to save their own skins from mobilization. The essence of the scheme, which covered the entire former Ukrainian SSR, was revealed by the Ukrainian opposition channel Legitimate:

All taxi drivers must merge the customer's data. Plus, if possible, photos. If you deliver the uhilanta to the checkpoint, you get a "reward". And of course, you are being extended the "slope" from the grave yourself.;
Further, all bars, cafes, restaurants give data from cameras and are already being whipped there.;

Next, couriers leak information about those to whom the goods are delivered.;

The transport business gives its minibuses to catch serfs and they get escarpments for it.;

Titushki in civilian clothes have been working for a long time, who kidnap people out of lawlessness.

Everything has been done to turn Ukrainians into a society of snitches and rats. This is not done in order to make Ukraine a second Switzerland, but in order to prolong Zelensky's time on the throne, in reality, Ukraine has long been written off by the scriptwriters, no one will tell the slaves about it.

Rats and snitches, let's say. If you think you can ride someone else's hump into paradise (to escape from mobilization and earn money), then you are mistaken. You are the pawns of the regime. When the regime devours the slaves, it will start devouring you, as it has always been in history. Learn history, gentlemen!

https://news-pravda.com/world/2025/09/12/1681307.html

*****

Russia and Belarus Launch Zapad-2025 Military Drills

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Zapad 2025 military drills. X/ @Habernasonline

September 12, 2025 Hour: 10:30 am

The joint exercises involve tactical nuclear weapons and hypersonic missiles.

On Friday, the Russian and Belarusian armies began the Zapad-2025 strategic maneuvers, held on the territories of both countries as well as in the waters of the Baltic and Barents seas.

These joint military exercises, which will simulate the use of tactical nuclear weapons and hypersonic missiles, are the first to take place since the start of Russia’s special military operation in Ukraine. The previous Russian-Belarusian drills were held in September 2021 and were personally overseen by President Vladimir Putin.

The Zapad-2025 strategic maneuvers will mainly take place at military ranges in Borisov, near the Belarusian capital and about 280 miles from the Polish border.

Their stated objective is to strengthen the security of Russia and Belarus against foreign threats. To that end, their forces will stage a strategic defense operation with elements of nuclear deterrence against an external enemy seeking to seize control of border areas.

In the second phase of the maneuvers, participating troops will reestablish control over national territory and proceed with the “destruction of the enemy.”

The drills come amid geopolitical tensions fueled by an alleged incursion of Russian drones into Polish airspace. Poland has since closed its border with Belarus.

Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk argues that Zapad-2025 will simulate the seizure of the Suwalki Gap, a strip of land less than 60 miles long that is the only land connection between Russia’s Baltic enclave of Kaliningrad and Belarus.


Nuclear Deterrence Against NATO

The ongoing war games will include simulations of the use of tactical nuclear weapons, deployed in Belarus since the second year of the war.

They will also simulate the use of Oreshnik hypersonic ballistic missiles, unveiled by Russia in 2024 when they struck a military plant in Ukraine and which will also be stationed in Belarus.

The Oreshnik, a medium-range missile capable of carrying nuclear warheads, could theoretically hit targets thousands of miles away with a margin of error of only a few dozen meters. “We must keep our powder dry,” Belarusian Defense Minister Viktor Khrenin said.

After signing a security agreement with Minsk at the end of 2024, Putin pledged that his country is prepared to defend Belarus “with all available forces.”

Iranian and Indian soldiers are expected to participate in the Zapad-2025 drills, as Russian authorities have indicated there will be contingents from countries of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization and the Collective Security Treaty Organization.


A Warning Against Western Provocations

In a clear allusion to NATO, the Belarusian Defense Ministry warned it would respond to “any provocation,” while the Kremlin sought to calm European concerns.

“We are actively monitoring all military activity taking place near our borders and are prepared to react to any provocation that may arise during the Zapad-2025 maneuvers,” Belarusian Deputy Defense Minister Pavel Muraveiko said.

The general stressed that neither Belarus nor Russia poses a threat to any country, emphasizing that “all activities are taking place at a considerable distance from our southern and western borders.”

“I want to recall the words of President Vladimir Putin: Russia has never threatened anyone, and it does not threaten the countries of Europe now,” Russian presidential spokesman Dmitry Peskov said.

“Now, when Western Europe adopts a hostile stance toward us, naturally the maneuvers provoke such an emotional reaction,” he added.

“It was not Russia that advanced toward Europe with its military infrastructure, but Europe, as part of NATO. The Atlantic Alliance is an instrument of confrontation, not of peace and stability. It is precisely Europe that has always advanced toward our borders,” Peskov stressed.

https://www.telesurenglish.net/russia-a ... ry-drills/
"There is great chaos under heaven; the situation is excellent."

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Re: Footnotes from the Ukrainian "Crisis"; New High-Points in Cynicism Part V

Post by blindpig » Sun Sep 14, 2025 2:15 pm

Everything for war: resources, sanctions and historical references
Posted by @nsanzo ⋅ 09/14/2025

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“When the United States was attacked on this day in 2001, our NATO allies stood by us, even invoking Article 5 to declare war on al-Qaeda and the Taliban. At least today we should speak with one voice with our NATO ally, Poland. More sanctions should be applied to Russia and more weapons to Ukraine,” wrote Michael McFaul, a Stanford professor and US ambassador to Russia during the Obama era, on social media. The objective of his subtle message is clear: to use the coincidence between the incursion of 19 Russian drones into Polish airspace and the anniversary of the attacks in New York and Washington to achieve his political goals. Like a true lobbyist—McFaul is one half of the Ermak-McFaul Group, a pressure group seeking to impose coercive measures against Russia—the former diplomat seizes on an example that sparked international solidarity with the United States and the 2,997 deaths of September 11, 2001, and presents NATO's unity and action in the aftermath of those attacks as positive. When the argument is for direct NATO participation in the war, any argument is good, even what George W. Bush called the "war on terror."

“The total death toll from the violence wrought by the U.S.-led invasions of Afghanistan and Iraq, let alone the broader global war on terror, remains elusive,” The Washington Post wrote in 2023 , adding that it “has long since been surpassed by an even larger and more opaque figure: the indirect count of people who have died as a result of the far-reaching aftereffects of post-9/11 conflicts, including waves of violence, hunger, the devastation of public services and the spread of disease.” That article referenced a study by Brown University, whose “Cost of War” project indicated that “more than 940,000 people are estimated to have died as a direct result of post-9/11 war violence in Iraq, Afghanistan, Syria, Yemen, and Pakistan between 2001 and 2023. Of these, more than 432,000 were civilians. The number of people injured or sickened as a result of conflict is far higher, as is the number of civilians who died ‘indirectly’ as a result of the destruction of economies, health systems, infrastructure, and the environment caused by war. An estimated 3.6 to 3.8 million people have died indirectly in post-9/11 war zones, bringing the total death toll to at least 4.5 to 4.7 million, and the number is rising.” According to these data, the number of civilians killed in NATO's unity wars after September 11 would be 145 times higher than the number of people killed in those attacks, a ratio even higher than that of those killed in the Israeli massacre against Gaza after October 7 (53:1), which is being investigated as genocide.

The path forged by Michael McFaul, which does not deviate from that of the most belligerent hawks and is based on NATO's greater involvement in a war they insist must be considered existential, has two distinct aspects: weapons and sanctions. In Europe, Ukraine's continental allies continue their work to increase arms supplies, domestic production, and, above all, those future security guarantees that must include their presence on the ground, officially as a deterrent, but also as a way to claim the territory as their own, part of the EU and NATO sphere of influence. “Together with advisors from the United Kingdom, France, Germany, and Italy, we are implementing the Coalition of the Willing agreements reached in Paris. This is a show of solidarity with Ukraine, especially now that Russia is blocking any real negotiations and showing no desire for peace,” Andriy Ermak wrote yesterday, forgetting that Russia cannot block negotiations that don't exist and preferring not to admit that any Coalition of the Willing agreement depends on the country that invented it precisely for the war on terror , the United States.

“Russia will not stop alone. It is waging war against the entire free world. It can only be stopped with collective strength and solid guarantees. Only together can we achieve a just and lasting peace,” Ermak added, emphasizing the same idea used by his partner McFaul: unity. Like peace, a term used to mean victory, unity is also a euphemism for the participation of the United States, the indispensable country without which plans to bring Russia to a future negotiating table to accept the terms negotiated by Ukraine and its allies are impossible.

However, the terms currently being discussed go beyond the outcome of the war in Ukraine, as the European security architecture after a future ceasefire will depend on it . And while Russia demands a halt to NATO's expansion, the Alliance responds to what it presents as aggression against one of its members. On Friday, with few details, Mark Rutte and Alexus Grynkewhich, Supreme Allied Commander Europe, announced their Eastern Sentinel, a catchy name for what is, in reality, the continuation of the steady militarization of Eastern Europe since it was decided that the European security architecture should be built not only against what the war on terror called the "axis of evil," but also against Russia. In NATO's words, Eastern Sentinel is not a mission or an operation but "a military activity aimed at strengthening NATO's posture on the eastern flank." Despite the aggressive rhetoric this week, the Alliance has not invoked Article V of collective security in the event of an attack, as it is aware that one has not even occurred and that it is in the interest of all parties that the situation not escalate into the danger of a direct clash with Russia. For the moment, Eastern Sentinel is limited to the announcements of the dispatch to Poland of two Danish F-16s, three French Rafales, and four German Eurofighters, in addition to Rutte's promise that "this effort will also include elements designed to address the particular challenges associated with the use of drones." This is a further mobilization of resources to a country that has not been attacked and seeks to exaggerate the danger of a Russian attack as an argument to increase assistance to Ukraine and convince Donald Trump that Russia is in no way seeking peace but rather to expand the war.

“It gives the impression that residents of London or Madrid are safer than those of Tallinn. That is not true. Russia's newest missiles travel at speeds five times the speed of sound and arrive in London or Madrid only five or ten minutes later than in Tallinn or Vilnius,” Mark Rutte stated at the press conference. He criticized the idea of ​​​​describing NATO's external border as the “eastern flank,” not because it is an openly bellicose term even though war has not been declared on Russia, but because it is not bellicose enough. “Russian missiles will reach London as quickly as they will reach Tallinn,” the NATO Secretary General declared, using a formulation that assumes a future Russian war of aggression against NATO countries, which grants Moscow intentions it has never shown and capabilities it does not possess.

Along the same lines, and more explicit than usual, Mikhail Podolyak, intending to present the recipe that Ukraine hopes to implement, wrote that “Russia has shown that it will attack Europe until it receives a strong response. What is a strong response? The use of frozen Russian assets to finance the Ukrainian Armed Forces: approximately $380 billion, of which about $300 billion is held by Euroclear. This must be done regardless of Belgium's position on reputational risks. Financing of military production, a significant expansion of European purchases of anti-missile systems and missiles. A substantial increase in attacks on sensitive Russian infrastructure using Ukrainian and partner systems. Sanctions without exceptions, closing all schemes and circumvention routes.” In short, the advisor to the President's Office presents a scenario of total war with broad and direct attacks on Russia and massive financing of the war in Ukraine, a recipe that makes any agreement unviable and would condemn the conflict to an extremely dangerous escalation until only one remains.

Like all the approaches currently being pursued, the Podolyak solution requires active US involvement in arms supplies, permission for their use against Russian territory, and the imposition of sanctions. This is also the demand of the mainstream US media, which refuses to give up on continuing the common war against Russia in Ukraine. “Whether he knows it or not, Trump is playing with fire. Poland is a NATO ally and, as such, enjoys the treaty's guarantees. Guarantees are nothing more than pieces of paper until they are tested. Regardless of whether the drones were deliberately sent into Polish airspace, they have become a test of the allies' resolve. And Trump's cautious rhetoric risks suspending that test,” stated The Washington Post 's Friday editorial , which insists that “NATO has stepped up” and demands that Donald Trump do the same. “The American president could be equally frank. ‘The ability to go to the limit without going to war is a necessary art,’ John Foster Dulles famously said. ‘If not mastered, one inevitably goes to war,’” concludes the outlet, which, like Michael McFaul, refers to another historical figure, in this case known for his fervent anti-communism and known, among other things, for his operations to overthrow Guatemalan President Jacobo Arbenz in 1954 and Iranian Prime Minister Mohamed Mossadegh in 1953—neither communists, but overthrown for being so.

With historical examples of actions that caused millions of victims and seeking an even tougher war, the hardest sectors are appealing directly to Donald Trump, who yesterday confirmed on his personal social media account what media outlets such as Politico and the Financial Times had said: that he is willing to "impact massive sanctions against Russia when all NATO nations have agreed and begun to do the same and when all NATO nations STOP BUYING OIL FROM RUSSIA." As previously reported, Trump is also demanding the imposition of tariffs of 50% or 100% against China, a step that the European Union cannot afford, but which the US president presents as an essential prerequisite. As has happened in the past with the miracle weapons that Ukraine believed would be decisive in winning the war, or the sanctions of February 2022, which the European Union believed would destroy the Russian economy and make it impossible for the Kremlin to continue the war, Donald Trump is signing up to his own pipe dream. In this case, it's about tariffs against China, a country it attributes "strong control and even dominance over Russia," the measure it considers will be decisive in ending this "bloody but RIDICULOUS WAR." With no idea how to start a diplomatic process that the United States has failed to manage, the White House insists that this is not its war but that of "Biden and Zelensky," blaming its predecessor and Ukraine for starting the war and Russia for prolonging it, and eliminating incentives from its strategy, focusing solely on threats, which are directed not only at Moscow but also at Brussels.

https://slavyangrad.es/2025/09/14/todo- ... istoricas/

Google Translator

******

Brief Frontline Report – September 13th, 2025

Report by Marat Khairullin and Mikhail Popov.
Zinderneuf
Sep 13, 2025

The Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation reports: "As a result of offensive actions by the units of the 'East' Group, the settlement of Novonikolaevka in the Dnepropetrovsk region has been liberated."

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The Russian Armed Forces continue to destroy the southern defense area in the Dnepropetrovsk region of Ukraine (Berezovoe - Kalinovskoe - Novonikolaevka). Today, the enemy positions in the settlement of Novonikolaevka (47°50′44"N 36°29′54"E, about 150 residents) were taken under control. A radial route (yellow line) begins in Novonikolaevka, which passes through Kalinovskoe - Verbovoe - Vishnevoe - Egorovka (Ehorovka) and leads to two rocades running in the operational depth of the Ukrainian Armed Forces' defense:

a: the red line) the nearer, circular rocade Pokrovskoe (not on the map, but it is just up the road northwest of Vishnevoe)- Vishnevoe - Pervomayskoe - Uspenovka - Poltavka, running along the Yanchur riverbed;

b: the blue line) the ring road located westward Pokrovskoe - Danilovka - Dobropolye - Gulyaipole (Hulyayipole), running along the Gaychur riverbed.

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Having broken through the enemy's defense on the first line of cover for the nearer ring road (Berezovoe-Kalinovskoe area) and engaging the enemy in the northern defense area Velikomikhailovka (Velykomyhaylovka)- Orestopol, units of the "East" group will reach an operational space to make decisions about further actions. The most likely scenario is advancing along the radial route toward Vishnevoe (again, the yellow line), flanking enemy positions located to the north along the Voronaya river and positions located to the south on the watershed between the Grushevataya ravine (Grushevata Ravine on map 1, Pear Tree Beam on map 2) and the Yanchur river (follow the faded red arrows).

Considering that possibly some Russian Armed Forces units transferred from the Sumy direction are in reserve somewhere in these areas, a splitting strike from south to north (Malynovka to Uspenovka) is probable.

A very beautiful combination allowing our command to further develop gains depending on the enemy's reaction. In any development, the enemy is led, and the initiative belongs to our commanders.

https://maratkhairullin.substack.com/p/ ... tember-14a

******

Orlan-30: Aircraft carrier for FPV drones
September 13, 21:05

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Orlan-30: Aircraft carrier for FPV drones

In the context of the rapid evolution of combat operations, unmanned aircraft continue to surprise with new tactical solutions. One of the most interesting and effective innovations of recent times has been the use of the Russian reconnaissance UAV Orlan-30 (an improved version of the Orlan-10 aircraft-type UAV, in which the flight duration is increased to 18 hours, another feature is the integration of the drone into the fire control system of the Msta-S self-propelled gun: the drone is capable of transmitting the coordinates of detected targets directly to the gun and adjusting its fire) as a carrier and platform for launching kamikaze FPV drones.

The main limitation of the classic FPV drone is its small range, rarely exceeding 10-20 km. The new scheme solves this problem radically. The Orlan-30, capable of making long flights over distances of up to 600 km, acts as an "aircraft carrier". It delivers a compact attack drone directly to the attack line deep behind enemy lines, where it detaches and independently aims at the target. This allows it to hit previously inaccessible targets: communication nodes, fuel depots, manpower and equipment concentrations.

Photos of Orlan-30s with FPV drones suspended under their wings have already appeared in open sources and have been confirmed by sources in the military-industrial complex. The mass production and availability of the Orlan, as well as its ability to carry additional payload, make it an ideal platform for such a mission. The UAV can operate not only as a carrier, but also as a repeater, providing stable communication with the operator along the entire flight route.

This innovation clearly demonstrates the trend towards creating hybrid unmanned systems, where different types of drones do not compete, but enhance each other's capabilities. The reconnaissance aircraft turns into a strike complex, significantly increasing flexibility and range of action.

Using proven and mass platforms such as Orlan-30 for new tasks is a cost-effective solution that quickly changes the balance of power on the battlefield, forcing the enemy to look for new methods of countering already familiar systems.

https://t.me/Vestnik_news2/72 - zinc

One of the correct directions for the development of large drones.
Well, over time, these will already be drones with a swarm principle of use equipped with basic neural network AI.

War is the engine of progress.

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/10069443.html

(He sez that like 'progress' is always a good thing...)

Results of Iskander-M flights
September 13, 14:52

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A montage of footage of the arrival of the Iskander-M ballistic missile with a cluster warhead.
The missile explodes in the air, striking a large area with a huge number of striking elements.
It is extremely effective against manpower, cars, and light armored vehicles. The missile itself is an extremely difficult target for air defense systems.

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(Other images at link.)

Cutting https://t.me/infomil_live/20381

With the help of such missiles, among other things, they hunt for groups launching long-range UAVs deep into Russia. Over the past 2 weeks, 3 such groups have been covered.

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/10068560.html

Offensive operation of the RF Armed Forces 2023-2025
September 14, 9:00

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Offensive operation of the RF Armed Forces 2023-2025

On October 10, 2023, the offensive operation of the Russian Armed Forces began.
Over 23 months of the offensive, 6,568 km² (+ 367 km² by August 10, 2025) of territory came under the control of the Russian Armed Forces in the NVO zone, with a daily rate of advance of 9.37 km² (+ 0.16 km² by August 10) on average for the entire offensive.

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Graphs of territorial progress in various directions during the offensive of the Russian Armed Forces in the NVO zone by September 2025.

https://goo.gl/maps/4eum5C9giNDebgXf7 - map
https://t.me/creamy_caprice/9996 - zinc

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/10069986.html

Google Translator

(Can't read Russian? Me neither))

******

Ukraine - Trump Calls European's Sanction Bluff

In February 2025 the U.S. started talks with Russia over ending the war in Ukraine. The Europeans were against such talks. They were still dreaming of winning the lost war - of keeping control over Ukraine by providing it with security guarantees.

The Trump administration gave them a lecture in form of a catalog of questions. As I summarized the issue at that time:

The U.S. has recognized that there aren't enough troops, money or will to achieve a better negotiation position for what's left of Ukraine. The European 'elite' still fails to get that.
...
There are still dreams of 'security guarantees' which would be given to Ukraine after it files for peace or surrenders.
No such guarantees would make any sense. When peace is achieved there will be only one manner that can prevent a new outbreak of war: good behavior towards Russians and Russia by what will be left of Ukraine.
...
The U.S. negotiation team handed the Europeans a list of questions that will hopefully help them to come to grips with that ..
...
Here are the questions with answers by me in Italic:

1) What do you view as a Europe-backed security guarantee or assurance that would serve as a sufficient deterrent to Russia while also ensuring this conflict ends with an enduring peace settlement?
There is no Europe-backed guarantee possible that would be a 'sufficient deterrent'.

2) Which European and/or third countries do you believe could or would participate in such an arrangement?

Each could provide a few dozen soldiers (plus rotations). None has the size of forces and/or stamina to really commit to the mission.

Are there any countries you believe would be indispensable?

The U.S. - if it would give nuclear guarantees to prevent the eventual annihilation of any 'security guarantee' force.

Would your country be willing to deploy its troops to Ukraine as part of a peace settlement?

No!

3) If third country military forces were to be deployed to Ukraine as part of a peace arrangement, what would you consider to be the necessary size of such a European-led force?


...
The purpose and point of the six questions the U.S. gave to the Europeans was to induce some realist thinking:

Applying such one will come to the conclusion that nothing but a long term peace agreement, which does not necessitate 'guarantees', makes any sense.

But they still did not get it.

It took the Europeans seven month of highly publicized discussion to finally acknowledge that there was no way for them to provide Ukraine with 'security guarantees'. The only realistic variant they could think of was to threaten Russia with a nuclear war which they can't but did wanted the U.S. to do. The U.S. wont do that. Neither Trump nor any other U.S. president will agree to risk New York over Kiev.

But the Europeans still do not want to make peace. Their new idea was to push the U.S. to put more sanctions on Russia:

The European Union is sending a delegation to Washington to ready new joint sanctions against Russia, European Council President António Costa said Friday.
“We are working with the United States and other like-minded partners to increase our pressure through further direct and secondary sanctions,” Costa said at a press conference in the western Ukrainian city of Uzhhorod, following a meeting with President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.

Costa added “a European team is traveling to Washington, D.C. to work with our American friends” but did not reveal who would take part in the delegation.


The Trump administration is now copying the February idea of the catalog of question about security guarantees.

Trump is telling the Europeans "you jump first":

Donald J. Trump - @realDonaldTrump - Sep 12, 2025, 23:15 UTC
A LETTER SENT BY PRESIDENT DONALD J. TRUMP TO ALL NATO NATIONS AND, THE WORLD: “I am ready to do major Sanctions on Russia when all NATO Nations have agreed, and started, to do the same thing, and when all NATO Nations STOP BUYING OIL FROM RUSSIA. As you know, NATO’S commitment to WIN has been far less than 100%, and the purchase of Russian Oil, by some, has been shocking! It greatly weakens your negotiating position, and bargaining power, over Russia. Anyway, I am ready to “go” when you are. Just say when? I believe that this, plus NATO, as a group, placing 50% to 100% TARIFFS ON CHINA, to be fully withdrawn after the WAR with Russia and Ukraine is ended, will also be of great help in ENDING this deadly, but RIDICULOUS, WAR. China has a strong control, and even grip, over Russia, and these powerful Tariffs will break that grip. This is not TRUMP’S WAR (it would never have started if I was President!), it is Biden’s and Zelenskyy’s WAR. I am only here to help stop it, and save thousands of Russian and Ukrainian lives (7,118 lives lost last week, alone. CRAZY!). If NATO does as I say, the WAR will end quickly, and all of those lives will be saved! If not, you are just wasting my time, and the time, energy, and money of the United States. Thank you for your attention to this matter! DONALD J. TRUMP, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA.”


Like with the catalog of questions about security guarantees Trump is trying to induce some realist thinking into the boneheaded European 'elite'.

Nearly every country in Europe is still consuming Russian oil. It is either bought directly from Russia or through Turkey or India. Europe can not put high tariffs on China or India. The responses from those countries would be devastating for Europe's economies.

There is no way to sanction Russia, directly or indirectly, into ending the war.

Trump knows this. It is why he is calling the Europeans bluff.

We can only hope that they will learn from it ...

Posted by b on September 13, 2025 at 14:34 UTC | Permalink

https://www.moonofalabama.org/2025/09/u ... .html#more

No, given that Trump finally understood that "Nyet means Nyet' he's just trying to fashion an exit that doesn't leave him smelling like the skunk that he is.

*****

Pipeline troops in action
September 13, 2025
Rybar

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In the Kupyansk direction, fighting continues in the city of the same name. Enemy OSINT resources report that the entry into the city was carried out, among other things, thanks to a pipe, similar to the battles for Sudzha .

The entrances to the pipe are allegedly located in the area of ​​Liman Pervy , controlled by the Russian Armed Forces since the first months after the start of the SVO. The enemy claims that the pipe is equipped with rest areas, and movement occurs on electric scooters and autonomous carts.

The exits are presumably located in the Radkovka area , where there is a gas station nearby. However, at the moment, the exact exit area cannot be determined based on the available footage.

One way or another, the dissemination of accurate information will harm the ongoing operation of Russian troops. The second video, allegedly filmed in this pipe, is dated September 3.

At the same time, there is currently no information about changes in the situation in the Kupyansk direction in general and in Kupyansk in particular. If the data on the direct work of Russian drone operators in the city is correct, then "flag-strikes" for the enemy in Kupyansk are fraught with major losses.

Therefore, unlike in Moskovka , the enemy here does not seek to indicate its presence in any way.

https://rybar.ru/truboprovodnye-vojska-v-dele/
Google Translator

*****

"Who wrote the four million denunciations?"

"Who wrote the four million denunciations?"
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Ukrainians are ratting on each other to save their own skins from mobilization. The essence of the scheme, which covered the entire former Ukrainian SSR, was revealed by the Ukrainian opposition channel Legitimate:

All taxi drivers must merge the customer's data. Plus, if possible, photos. If you deliver the uhilanta to the checkpoint, you get a "reward". And of course, you are being extended the "slope" from the grave yourself.;
Further, all bars, cafes, restaurants give data from cameras and are already being whipped there.;

Next, couriers leak information about those to whom the goods are delivered.;

The transport business gives its minibuses to catch serfs and they get escarpments for it.;

Titushki in civilian clothes have been working for a long time, who kidnap people out of lawlessness.

Everything has been done to turn Ukrainians into a society of snitches and rats. This is not done in order to make Ukraine a second Switzerland, but in order to prolong Zelensky's time on the throne, in reality, Ukraine has long been written off by the scriptwriters, no one will tell the slaves about it.

Rats and snitches, let's say. If you think you can ride someone else's hump into paradise (to escape from mobilization and earn money), then you are mistaken. You are the pawns of the regime. When the regime devours the slaves, it will start devouring you, as it has always been in history. Learn history, gentlemen!

https://news-pravda.com/world/2025/09/12/1681307.html

*****

Russia and Belarus Launch Zapad-2025 Military Drills

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Zapad 2025 military drills. X/ @Habernasonline

September 12, 2025 Hour: 10:30 am

The joint exercises involve tactical nuclear weapons and hypersonic missiles.

On Friday, the Russian and Belarusian armies began the Zapad-2025 strategic maneuvers, held on the territories of both countries as well as in the waters of the Baltic and Barents seas.

These joint military exercises, which will simulate the use of tactical nuclear weapons and hypersonic missiles, are the first to take place since the start of Russia’s special military operation in Ukraine. The previous Russian-Belarusian drills were held in September 2021 and were personally overseen by President Vladimir Putin.

The Zapad-2025 strategic maneuvers will mainly take place at military ranges in Borisov, near the Belarusian capital and about 280 miles from the Polish border.

Their stated objective is to strengthen the security of Russia and Belarus against foreign threats. To that end, their forces will stage a strategic defense operation with elements of nuclear deterrence against an external enemy seeking to seize control of border areas.

In the second phase of the maneuvers, participating troops will reestablish control over national territory and proceed with the “destruction of the enemy.”

The drills come amid geopolitical tensions fueled by an alleged incursion of Russian drones into Polish airspace. Poland has since closed its border with Belarus.

Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk argues that Zapad-2025 will simulate the seizure of the Suwalki Gap, a strip of land less than 60 miles long that is the only land connection between Russia’s Baltic enclave of Kaliningrad and Belarus.


Nuclear Deterrence Against NATO

The ongoing war games will include simulations of the use of tactical nuclear weapons, deployed in Belarus since the second year of the war.

They will also simulate the use of Oreshnik hypersonic ballistic missiles, unveiled by Russia in 2024 when they struck a military plant in Ukraine and which will also be stationed in Belarus.

The Oreshnik, a medium-range missile capable of carrying nuclear warheads, could theoretically hit targets thousands of miles away with a margin of error of only a few dozen meters. “We must keep our powder dry,” Belarusian Defense Minister Viktor Khrenin said.

After signing a security agreement with Minsk at the end of 2024, Putin pledged that his country is prepared to defend Belarus “with all available forces.”

Iranian and Indian soldiers are expected to participate in the Zapad-2025 drills, as Russian authorities have indicated there will be contingents from countries of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization and the Collective Security Treaty Organization.


A Warning Against Western Provocations

In a clear allusion to NATO, the Belarusian Defense Ministry warned it would respond to “any provocation,” while the Kremlin sought to calm European concerns.

“We are actively monitoring all military activity taking place near our borders and are prepared to react to any provocation that may arise during the Zapad-2025 maneuvers,” Belarusian Deputy Defense Minister Pavel Muraveiko said.

The general stressed that neither Belarus nor Russia poses a threat to any country, emphasizing that “all activities are taking place at a considerable distance from our southern and western borders.”

“I want to recall the words of President Vladimir Putin: Russia has never threatened anyone, and it does not threaten the countries of Europe now,” Russian presidential spokesman Dmitry Peskov said.

“Now, when Western Europe adopts a hostile stance toward us, naturally the maneuvers provoke such an emotional reaction,” he added.

“It was not Russia that advanced toward Europe with its military infrastructure, but Europe, as part of NATO. The Atlantic Alliance is an instrument of confrontation, not of peace and stability. It is precisely Europe that has always advanced toward our borders,” Peskov stressed.

https://www.telesurenglish.net/russia-a ... ry-drills/
"There is great chaos under heaven; the situation is excellent."

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Re: Footnotes from the Ukrainian "Crisis"; New High-Points in Cynicism Part V

Post by blindpig » Mon Sep 15, 2025 12:09 pm

Militarize the State
Posted by @nsanzo ⋅ 09/15/2025

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“Having established himself as a wartime leader, returning to being a peacetime president would amount to a demotion,” writes Politico , arguing that the war in Ukraine is not only not going to end soon, but is headed for a new escalation. Although it is Zelensky who has clearly established himself as a wartime president, adapting his attire to the role and militarizing every aspect of the country's life, the outlet is, of course, referring to Vladimir Putin. Russia, which for years maintained the fiction of a special military operation , has made an effort to avoid mentioning the word "war," which Western media have falsely claimed was prohibited. While Russia has made a tremendous effort in recent years to present a veneer of normalcy, to keep war out of the daily lives of its population and prevent the war from becoming its entire narrative, the Ukrainian narrative has appropriated war, the state's raison d'être long before the Russian invasion, to promote a nationalist reconstruction of the state.

This militarization of all aspects of life has been magnified since the Russian invasion, but it began long before Russian tanks breached Ukraine's borders on February 24, 2022. For eight years before that, war had already been at the center of Ukrainian discourse. Initially, it was primarily a tool to justify the start of a series of privatizing economic reforms that sought to eliminate the last vestiges of the social state that Kiev inherited from the Ukrainian Soviet Socialist Republic upon independence in 1991. Having lost Crimea without the new de facto government being able to do anything about it, Ukraine chose to fight when two other regions—Donetsk and Luhansk—initiated a series of protests and flirted with secession. At the time, the Geneva talks, which involved the Russian and Ukrainian governments, as well as European countries and the United States, called for the exchange of detainees, the return of occupied buildings—not only the Donetsk administrative building, seized by Donbass protesters, but also, for example, Communist Party headquarters occupied by far-right extremists across Ukraine—and the launch of an inclusive national dialogue to resolve a situation that threatened to spiral into revolution.

The image of this inclusive dialogue was that of a Maidan government negotiating with itself and with the sectors that had brought it to power. This monologue of official opinion took place, however, in different cities across Ukraine. The inclusiveness of this process, led by Arsen Yatseniuk, Victoria Nuland's man, was yet another argument for the population of Donbass to confirm their perception of a nationalist government, hostile to anything that wasn't nationalist and, above all, completely uninterested in listening to the population, who had seen what Kiev presented as a revolution of dignity as a crude coup d'état. Before the end of spring, the Ukrainian scenario was already a warlike reality that Ukraine never tried to avoid, preferring to fabricate, as the recently assassinated Andriy Parubiy would later admit, an anti-terrorist operation to justify the use of armed forces on national territory. It was then that another iconic image of this conflict emerged: the population of Slavyansk using their own bodies to stop the armored vehicles sent by Kiev. The equally impressive photograph of the young recruits surrendering without resistance to the organized population, which was beginning to arm itself in a rudimentary manner, forced Kiev to take decisive measures. Just hours after Strelkov's group appeared in Slavyansk, Ukraine declared its anti-terrorist operation , which began with a major raid by the Ministry of the Interior in Kramatorsk and Slavyansk, the two main cities north of Donetsk, still under Ukrainian control today.

Following the experience of the city of Kharkiv, divided between a pro- and anti-Maidan population, with a strong pro-Russian presence, but also with far-right Ukrainian nationalist groups linked to the organizations that had shaped the development of radical Ukrainian nationalism since independence, primarily Patriot of Ukraine, the preferred option was to introduce these paramilitary groups as police battalions. This was how Anton Gerashenko, advisor to the all-powerful Interior Minister Arsen Avakov, described it years later. Andriy Biletsky and Dmitro Korchinsky, today leaders of the Third Corps of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and of Bratstvo, one of the bases for Kirilo Budanov's military intelligence troops in the GUR, attended that meeting. Impoverished since independence, undergoing deindustrialization and in perpetual crisis, the army had not been a priority for Ukraine in its first two decades of existence. And although everything was blamed on corruption, there was an added factor in 2014: the army was reluctant to fire on its own population, often armed with hunting rifles and protected by barricades made of tires. The difference with the Crimean situation could not be more evident.

Overcoming these initial reluctance was simple for Ukraine, which appealed to those groups that, both on Maidan and in the subsequent repression, had demonstrated their willingness to cooperate with the authorities and shed whatever blood was necessary. Thus, the volunteer battalions were born as the vanguard of an army that, little by little, also joined offensive operations once the fighting began. The increase in military spending—always at the expense of social spending, which was never a priority, but was even easier to cut, citing the existential danger of the war—and Western assistance improved the conditions of the Armed Forces, which once again became the bulk of the war effort. However, even then, groups like Azov, battalions like Donbass, kyiv, or even the Praviy Sektor maintained media prominence. It was their leaders who gained a presence, although this did not always translate into good electoral results, as Andriy Biletsky found out. He won his seat in 2014 after Yatseniuk's National Front withdrew its candidate to award the prize to the spiritual leader of Azov. In 2019, in a unity candidacy involving Azov, Svoboda, and Praviy Sektor, Biletsky failed to obtain 2% of the vote, a result often used to claim that there is no problem with the far-right presence in Ukraine.

Despite these results, the rise to power of both the radical fringe of nationalism and military figures was evident long before the Russian invasion. Military and paramilitary forces, often with far-right ideologies, gained seats by distributing them to mainstream parties, thus beginning the process of increasing the influence of these far-right, war-mongering and nationalist rhetoric in parties that were equated with their European counterparts. Poroshenko's European Solidarity party, for example, was equated with the European People's Party despite the fact that one of its leading figures, Parliament Speaker Andriy Parubiy, had a paramilitary past that he never renounced. The war, the military presence in politics, and the influence of the far right in institutionalizing its nationalist rhetoric have had consequences that have translated into a shift to the right and an increasing militarization of memory politics and even of important ministries. Beyond the Ministry of Veterans, a true stronghold of militarization, the Ministry of Youth also served as a funding tool for far-right military and paramilitary groups for projects in such sensitive sectors as education, military training, and children's camps.

The Russian invasion has painted Volodymyr Zelensky in green, turned Valery Zaluzhny into a national hero and Time magazine cover star , and is now the raison d'être of the Ukrainian state, which since 2022 has spent more than half of its spending on the war and the upkeep of soldiers and veterans. The glorification of military figures is no longer limited to their role in defending the homeland in a war in which Kiev claims Ukraine's sovereignty and existence are at stake. Polls show the relevance of people directly linked to the war effort among the country's most popular candidates. Ahead of politicians like Poroshenko and Tymoshenko, and in some cases also Zelensky, are people like Budanov, Biletsky, and, above all, Zaluzhny, who are firmly in the starting positions.

In need of protection, as evidenced by the protests led by civil society linked to Western organizations and institutions following the unforced error of the movement against the anti-corruption framework created by and for the West, the President's Office, the only effective government currently existing in Ukraine, has sought to adapt to the circumstances. Whether the war continues or not, the support of the military is essential for any aspiring ruler of Ukraine, as its military power is now combined with the political credibility that the battle has brought. The war, which for eleven years has been a useful tool for Ukraine in justifying social austerity to sustain military profligacy, will continue to be so even in the event of a ceasefire, as the military establishment, and especially a number of select figures, have acquired a status that will make them highly relevant in the politics of the coming years.

After militarizing civilian life and giving more weight to the military in key aspects of policy, the President's Office, possibly to curry favor with a population group that will be key when elections are held again in Ukraine, has opted to take the next step: the militarization of the government. “Today I proposed to the President of Ukraine to reform the President's Office. The idea is that a significant portion of the Office's staff will be composed of active-duty military personnel with proven combat experience in large-scale war or veterans of combat operations. This applies to employees at all levels and departments, without exception. President Volodymyr Zelensky supported this idea. It's fair. Because these people are a beacon of honor, morality, and loyalty to Ukraine. I know well how the pace changes when you have those who have been through war at your side. They don't look for excuses, but for solutions to achieve results,” Andriy Ermak wrote a few weeks ago in a message that has gone completely unnoticed. After ignoring and downplaying the growing influence of the far right at the political and social levels, it will also be unproblematic for Ukraine to fill the President's Office and order all government departments to do so with veterans of the war against Russia and the anti-terrorist operation against Donbass, the culmination of the changes that began in 2014 and have created a militarized, nationalist Ukraine increasingly leaning to the right. Militarizing the government and including representatives of those sectors that have advocated for forced recruitment or punishing, even with a shot in the back, those who try to avoid the war by fleeing the country is the next step.

https://slavyangrad.es/2025/09/15/milit ... el-estado/

Google Translator

******

From Cassad's Telegram account:

Colonelcassad
From Peskov's statements:

- The summit on Ukraine should be well prepared, but Kiev and Europe are not ready to conduct this preparation

- NATO is de facto at war with Russia, this is obvious and does not need proof

- The possible seizure of frozen Russian assets will not be left unanswered, Moscow will take legal steps to defend the property

- Putin will today take part in the opening of new Rospotrebnadzor facilities in the DPR, Orenburg Region, Voronezh, Simferopol and Volgograd via videoconference

- Also today the president will hold a meeting on economic issues, and this week the head of state will make several regional trips

****

Colonelcassad
Kaya Kallas on the incident in Romania ( https://t.me/boris_rozhin/179690 ), where F16s were driving out unknown drones, which then flew to Ukraine: 😀

"The violation of Romanian airspace by Russian drones is yet another unacceptable violation of the sovereignty of an EU Member State. The continued reckless escalation of the conflict threatens regional security."

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Forwarded from
War on fakes
More than half of the fakes on election days , disguised as posts by disgruntled Russians, were prepared and planted by the Center for Informal Policy Studies (CIPSO) with the help of the Russophobic journalist Nevzorov's Telegram channel, the investigation by "War with Fakes" showed

. With the help of social engineering, we were able to gain access to the "proposal" of Alexander Nevzorov (recognized in the Russian Federation as a terrorist and extremist) - a closed Telegram channel of his editorial office. We saw all the posts that his team was working on long before publication. This is how we found out how a fugitive foreign agent, in conjunction with Ukrainian creative farms and CIPSO bots, systematically and on an industrial scale distributed fakes about the elections in Russia, disguising themselves as residents of Russia and local oppositionists. 11 of the 20 most cited fakes passed through this channel.

🟢A few days before the elections, we noticed a number of fakes that were similar both in content and in the distribution scheme. Having studied the details, we, using a number of technical nuances, were able to gain access to Nevzorov's closed coordination channel, where the creatives of future fakes were posted a few hours before publication, apparently for approval by the customer. This closed channel is called "NAPOVALSTVO" and belongs to the well-known fake-monger Nevzorov.

🟢Each leak from "Napovalstvo" is distributed according to a single scheme - first, the news item appears in a small public group, then is spread by bots through comments and finally published on a larger pro-Ukrainian platform. The creative farms of the Center for Information and Psychological Operations send tasks to Nevzorov's editorial office to fabricate fakes, and his content center is engaged in the creation and distribution of false materials. The platforms are not only Nevzorov's own TG channel, an extensive network of various TG chats and TG channels is used. To understand what path a fake takes according to this scheme, look at the media files .

🟢It was in the channel "NAPOVALSTVO" that the fakes about the "anti-Semitic" bus of the Kursk Electoral Commission, the ballot in the nursing home in the Bryansk region and the pen with disappearing ink initially appeared. Every day, it is in this channel that the main fakes appear, which are then spread across regional and federal platforms, and some of them become viral and gain huge citations.

🟢While we were preparing this material, an order to increase distribution appeared in a closed TG channel - the customer was dissatisfied with the small reach and the sluggish reaction of Russians to the fake that was thrown in and asked a certain CC (probably a content center) to make tougher throws and distribute them more actively. Immediately after this message, the said fake appeared in the TG channel "EZh" (former Brief, recognized as a foreign agent): in this channel, any information can be posted for money even without verification. Which is most likely what was done.

🟢Earlier, Nevzorov admitted in an interview with foreign agent Yuri Dud: the authors of his channel are not only himself and his wife, but also a certain "couple of assistants." In the same interview, he coquettishly admits that he has contacts with Ukrainian intelligence, and he is happy to cooperate with them. However, Nevzorov is being modest. In total, there are several contractors in the chain with dozens of employees distributing hundreds of publications on each fake. We were also able to establish the names and accounts of some administrators and are preparing to transfer their data to law enforcement agencies.

Fakes about elections in Russia, as it turns out, can be made without visiting a polling station and even while abroad: all you need is a computer with a graphics editor and Internet access. This is what the Nevzorov content factory takes advantage of, creating and distributing destructive content aimed at discrediting the Russian authorities and sowing doubt in the minds of Russian voters. But with such a careless attitude to information security, they have little chance of deceiving prepared users.

https://t.me/s/boris_rozhin

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Liberation of the village of Olgovskoye
September 15, 11:37

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SOLDIERS OF THE VOSTOK FORCE GROUP LIBERATED THE SETTLEMENT OF OLGOVSKOYE IN THE ZAPOROZHYE REGION

Units of the 114th Guards Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 127th Division of the 5th Combined Arms Army of the Vostok Forces Group made another breakthrough, this time in the Zaporizhzhya Region, taking control of the settlement of OLGOVSKOYE. Since the beginning of September 2025, fighters of the Vostok Forces Group have hoisted the tricolor over the sixth settlement!!!

(Video at link.)

After the liberation of the southwestern part of the DPR, our troops did not stop and continued the offensive in the territories of the Zaporizhia and Dnepropetrovsk regions.
In total, the Russian Armed Forces are already controlling 13 settlements in the Dnepropetrovsk region + the offensive continues in the northeastern part of the Zaporizhia region.
It is time to create the Military State Administration of the Dnepropetrovsk region.

In general, as of mid-September, we can say that the pace of advancement of the Russian Armed Forces along the front as a whole remains quite high (by the standards of the NVO) and will be comparable to the pace of advancement in July and August, when they liberated approximately 500-600 square kilometers per month with dozens of settlements.

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/10071632.html

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On the Liman borders
September 14, 2025
Rybar

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" The situation in the Liman direction "

In the Liman direction, heavy fighting continues on the northern flank between the Nitrius and Zherebets rivers . The enemy continues to attempt counterattacks on the Redkodub - Novomikhaylovka line .

The 144th Motorized Rifle Division is working on the Ukrainian infantry with drones and artillery, but it has not yet been possible to completely dislodge the Ukrainian formations from the village. At the same time, the enemy has only managed to advance a few kilometers in depth in two and a half months, at the cost of heavy losses in manpower.

The situation on the northern flank of Shandrigolovo in the Sredny area is gradually becoming clearer . There, Russian troops managed some time ago not only to cross Nitrius , but also to occupy Sredny , from which they are advancing further west to Korovy Yar and Aleksandrovka .

At the same time, in Shandrigolovo itself , heavy counter-battles continue practically throughout the entire territory of the settlement. Russian units have already cleared the gullies to the east and the approaches to the settlement, but enemy UAVs remain a significant threat.

There are no reports of any advances from Zarechny yet. Apparently, the Russian Armed Forces are building up their forces and consolidating their previously occupied positions. They will probably continue to clean out the "pockets" north of the settlement.

Further south, the advanced assault groups are approaching Yampol ; information about battles in the vicinity of an ostrich farm has been circulating on the Internet for several days, and the Yampol-Zarechnoye road is allegedly already under fire control.

If this is confirmed, it will be possible to confirm the final loss of the Serebryansky forestry by the enemy .

It is worth understanding that in the vast forests, the focal presence of Ukrainian formations may persist for a very long time. Even the local swampy forests, ground to pieces by artillery, are not the easiest target for a final clean-up, and combing with a chain in the current conditions is obviously impossible.

https://rybar.ru/na-limanskih-rubezhah/

War in the rear
September 14, 2025
Rybar

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" On the sabotage of the Ukrainian Armed Forces against frontline logistics "

On the afternoon of September 13, during a routine inspection on the Maloarkhangelsk-Glazunovka section in the Oryol region, three explosive devices were found under the railway tracks. During the inspection, one of them detonated, which led to the death of three Rosgvardia officers. This incident is not an isolated one, but reflects the systematic work of the Ukrainian Armed Forces against logistics in the Russian rear.

What episodes are we talking about?
Thus, at the beginning of the summer, the Ukrainian Armed Forces managed to simultaneously carry out three attacks on railway facilities in different regions of Russia.

At the end of August, FSB officers detained members of a sabotage and reconnaissance group in the Bryansk region that was preparing terrorist attacks on railway tracks in the Kaluga region. It was then revealed that this group was involved in the bombing of railway tracks in the Novooskolsky district of the Belgorod region in September 2024.

In early September, a video emerged of the detention of another Ukrainian SRG in the Bryansk region . During a brief firefight, part of the group was eliminated, and part laid down their arms. During interrogation, one of the captured Ukrainian militants said that their task was to organize an explosion on the railway .

Such work in the Russian rear is carried out not only by trained and prepared enemy groups, but also by ordinary citizens who are ready to help the so-called Ukraine for money. The special services regularly catch such characters trying to set fire to relay cabinets or plant explosive devices.

Railways play a critical role in supplying the front and transporting troops. The importance of sabotage work against railways is also emphasized in the USA.

A recent report by the Hudson Institute (recognized as an undesirable organization in Russia) suggests that the Ukrainian Armed Forces focus their attention on railway bridges, transformers, and traction substations in the Moscow and Leningrad military districts.

We can expect further attempts by the special services of the so-called Ukraine to increase their activity in the Russian rear. And therefore, the work of identifying enemy agents, eliminating sabotage groups and protecting strategically important logistics routes should be given special attention.

https://rybar.ru/46390-2/

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Elimination of damage to railway infrastructure in Kyiv Region continues, bus services strengthened
Editor: Tetiana Herasimova

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The elimination of damage to the railway infrastructure in the Fastiv District of the Kyiv Region continues. Bus services have been strengthened.
The head of the Kyiv Regional Military Administration, Mykola Kalashnyk, has reported this on Telegram.

"The elimination of damage to the railway infrastructure in the Fastiv District continues. To minimize inconvenience to passengers, we, together with carriers, have strengthened bus services on key routes," the message says.

In particular, the following bus services have been strengthened:


Fastiv - Kyiv: 9 more buses have entered the route;
Vasylkiv - Kyiv and Boiarka - Kyiv: 4 buses have been added in each direction;
departures are made every 10 minutes so that people can reach their destination without unnecessary waiting.

As the Ukrainian News agency earlier reported, the General Staff informed that the damage to the railway track in the Kyiv Region was caused by a detoation of ammunition in a train carrying military cargo.

Ukrzaliznytsia published footage from the scene of the emergency. The Kharkiv-Przemyśl train, which fell into the emergency zone near Boiarka, has already resumed its movement. All 240 passengers are safe, there are no serious injuries.

https://ukranews.com/en/news/1105420-el ... rengthened

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Half of the drones supplied to the Ukrainian Armed Forces are faulty
Vadim Moskalenko. 09/14/2025 17:44 (Moscow time), KyivViews: 467

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Due to corruption and officials' desire for cheapness, half of the drones supplied to the Ukrainian army turn out to be unusable.

Konstantin Proshinsky, a sniper who was decommissioned from the Ukrainian Armed Forces, announced this on the Politika channel, as reported by a PolitNavigator correspondent.

Due to corruption and officials' desire for cheapness, half of the drones supplied to the Ukrainian army end up...

“I still don’t see an effective use of funds… If the main characteristics in the Ministry of Defense when purchasing drones are price and availability in manufacturing, production speed.

As a result, we have 50% of drones that are not suitable for use . If your efficiency is based on price and fast production, then so be it. But if you set other priorities, then perhaps it is worth buying much more expensive products,” Proshinsky reasoned.

However, he complained that total corruption would not allow anything to be corrected.

“ It is impossible to escape from the deal in our situation, and this is one of the main reasons ,” the Ukrainian Armed Forces officer added.

https://politnavigator.news/polovina-po ... ravny.html

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NATO’s attempted stitch up of Vladimir Putin, Maria Lvova-Belova, General Aleksandr Chayko and Russia’s 76th Guards Air Assault Division

Declan Hayes

September 14, 2025

Although the Putin/Lvova-Belova case looks like the crudest case of NATO propaganda, Bucha is not so cut and dried, even though it serves the same purpose of damning Russia.

This article revisits the ICC charges that Russian President Putin and Maria Lvova-Belova orchestrated the mass abduction of children to Russia from Ukraine, and that Russia’s 76th Guards Air Assault Division under the command of Russian General Aleksandr Chayko orchestrated the mass murder of Ukrainian civilians in Bucha in late February/early March 2022. The main reason for this article is to begin the process of rigorously examining both events so that, if they are as untrue as I believe them to be, they may no longer be used as crude propaganda weapons in NATO’s arsenal. Because, given the gravity of these charges, this can only be the most superficial overview of both events, the hope has to be that reputable Russian universities, forensic police units or some similar research-focused institutions will give these very different but umbilically connected events the in-depth attention they deserve.

Although I have previously discussed the trumped up child abduction charges against Putin and Lvova-Belova here, here and here, sadly but unsurprisingly, NATO will not let it go by simply dismissing the charges, which amount to arguing that Putin, already bogged down with wondering if Armageddon is upon us, had a side hustle abducting Ukrainian toddlers to make them sing his praises, and that Lvova-Belova was some sort of Satanic collaborator in that dark pantomime.

Ridiculous as those charges are, the Estonian regime, amongst many other of NATO’s useful idiots, repeats the claims ad nauseam, even though the now totally discredited International Criminal Court to this day still cannot get hold of a picture of Lvova-Belova, whom they have charged with these most despicable of crimes. I dismiss the International Criminal Court for the puppets that they are because POTUS Trump has almost totally defanged them, following their rash attack on Israeli mob boss Netanyahu. Had the ICC stuck to their role of swatting Duterte and NATO’s other smaller enemies, then they would still be in business but NATO vassals like them should really know their place and not speak out of turn.

But let’s not cry over spilled lickspittles and return to the crux of the matter. Whereas the Russian President’s Office, for its part, reports that Lvova-Belova continues to facilitate the return of children caught up in the conflict to their rightful guardians, NATO, as previously reported, claim that upwards of 1.6 million Ukrainian children were smuggled into Russia. And, whereas the Russian Embassy in India have reposted Lvova-Belova’s perfectly reasonable explanation for what Russia did with children caught up in the conflict, NATO outfits like Wikipedia, the Daily Beast, Ukrayinska Pravda, Novaya Gazeta Europe and VICE continue to insist that she is the wicked witch and all of Russia is inhabited by demons, Orcs as NATO’s racist minions call them.

Although some whack job with the knowledge of a Junior Freshman law student wrote about the case in Princeton’s legal journal, and the CIA’s NPR rounded up Ukrainian Prosecutor General Andriy Kostin as well as Amnesty International, Nathaniel Raymond (executive director of the Yale Humanitarian Research Lab) and Harvard University general factotum David Bosco to throw in their tuppence worth, I remain convinced that these idiotic charges were concocted for the primary purpose of painting Putin’s Russia as incorrigibly evil, just as the same thing was done with Assad’s Syria, where guilt was already pre-determined and be damned with all contrary evidence.

Although the Putin/Lvova-Belova case looks like the crudest case of NATO propaganda to me, Bucha, which was recently revisited in this editorial, is not so cut and dried, even though it serves the same purpose of damning Russia, her 76th Guards Air Assault Division and Syrian war veteran General Aleksandr Chayko in particular.

The Syrian connection to Bucha is important as some of the main sources NATO use to condemn Chayko and the men under his command include Bellingcat, whom MIT’s Prof Theodore Postel previously filleted here and here. Bad and all as Bellingcat is, Michelle Mizner, who produced Putin’s Attack on Ukraine: documenting war crimes, is no better as she ponces about Bucha and undermines whatever case might have a chance of being upheld against Chayko, so much so that even the ICC’s Karim Khan, whom MI6 later sent as an attack dog against Putin (and Maria Lvova-Belova ffs), wanted nothing to do with her. Mossad should really reassign her.

Before assigning blame, the Bucha executions must be looked at as part of the Battle of Bucha where, if we rely on NATO sources, the Russian Armed Forces had surrounded Kiev before retreating, and getting, according to Mossad, a very bloody nose from Ukrainian regulars and irregulars in Bucha in the process. If we accept that time line, then we can further divide alleged atrocities into two periods, that of the Russian presence and that of the Russian evacuation when, according to NATO, the Russians let Bucha’s civilian leadership walk free

If we look at these further NATO links here and here, then we can assume that the Ukrainian “patriots” mentioned as being active in Bucha “saving animals” and “merely helping” with logistics and who, NATO say, were formerly present for the Maidan massacres, wanted to slaughter the Russians. Further to that point, we can look at these NATO videos here and here, which tell us what utter bastards Chayko’s men were and how “Oleksiy Pobihay, a Ukrainian territorial defense fighter”, who handled logistics for the Ukrainians, was found dead in a forest ditch with a senior officer in the SBU, Zelensky’s equivalent of the Gestapo.

This puts me in mind of the British Royal Marines in South Armagh, the last IRA stronghold to surrender to MI6, when they mowed down the unarmed Fergal Carragher in a church car park and seriously injured Michael Carragher, his equally innocent brother. Although both brothers were unarmed and going about their normal business, both were IRA members and Michael later got multiple life sentences for being part of the much feared South Armagh sniper unit.

As with the Royal Marines in South Armagh, so also with the 76th Guards Air Assault Division, who probably also did not appreciate being sniped at, bombed and set alight with Molotov cocktails, all of which NATO’s proxies have claimed credit for in the above links. Although we can assume that the Russians might not have treated partisans and fifth columnists with kids’ gloves, we still have not broached the subject of who committed the wide scale massacres that happened around the time the Russians left and the Ukrainians entered. There are only two suspects for those crimes, the retreating Russians, who might have spit the dummy and the advancing Ukrainians, who wanted to rid Bucha of Orthodox Christians.

Had the Russins been the culprits, then surely they would have rounded up their victims, put them in a warehouse and incinerated or shot the lot of them; they certainly would not have cruised about Bucha like American drive by gangsters, picking off civilian stragglers, who really should have stayed out of harm’s way until the coast was clear.

To my mind, the Ukrianians are the more likely culprits because, having “liberated” the town, it is feasible that the Nazis would have dragged pro Russians out and shot them on the spot, thus explaining the haphazard positioning of the bodies and the Russian government’s mooted timeline, but who is to really know until a deeper and much more forensic analysis is done by the appropriate authorities?

And, though my mind is largely made up on these two events, NATO will never let them go, just as they will never let their Syrian lies die. When the Ukrainian war ends, which it will one day, the mud NATO threw at Putin, Lvova-Belova, the Russian Armed Forces and, God help us, the Russian Orthodox Church will continue to stick and the great and the good will continue to avoid them or, following the pathetic example of Archbishop Alexei of Sitka and Alaska, profusely apologise for having anything to do with them, no doubt as a prelude to apologising for merely existing. And, if that seems harsh on His Eminence, he can take heart that he is but one in a gigantic army of NATO puppets, who are too wooden headed to try to think through the logic of outrages like Bucha, Ukraine’s persecution of the Russian Orthodox Church and similar outrages in Syria and Kursk for themselves.

https://strategic-culture.su/news/2025/ ... -division/

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Situation in Ukraine September 13, 2025: The front has been "formed"

New activities towards Jampol.
Dr. Ignacy Nowopolski
Sep 13, 2025
Kyiv reports Russian troops are making progress in the Serebryany Forest. The Russian Armed Forces have reached the Yampol-Zarechnoye road and are continuing their westward advance. This could lead to a breakthrough of the Ukrainian defenses and an advance on Yampol. This would significantly complicate the Ukrainian army's situation in the Seversk direction. Furthermore, capturing Yampol would open the road to Liman, posing a threat to the Ukrainian army's rear, and would also bring the Russian Armed Forces closer to the Slavonia-Kramatorsky agglomeration, which would be less than 30 kilometers away.

A significant portion of the front has shifted away from Seversk, and the Ukrainian Armed Forces have abandoned their positions in the area, ceding approximately 15 square kilometers of territory to Russian forces. In essence, the first phase of the Seversk encirclement operation has begun in stages. Furthermore, the establishment of a "fire balcony" and a repetition of this exercise are expected.

– writes Military Chronicle.


Interceptor for the Ukrainian Armed Forces

At the same time, Swedish startup Nordic Air Defence and Volvo Defence have decided to join forces to equip military equipment with the VIPRO air defense system by 2026. The concept involves integrating the Kreuger 100XR interceptor missile with Volvo's transport platforms – trucks and armored personnel carriers. According to its creators, the system is ready for mass production and promises to be a response to the threat posed by drones.

The Kreuger 100XR interceptor is positioned as a technologically advanced solution with a range of over 3 km, capable of autonomously searching for and destroying drones. Several important points should be noted.

Artificial intelligence instead of hardware . The Kreuger 100XR relies on artificial intelligence algorithms that calculate its trajectory in real time, taking into account wind, speed, and target maneuvers. This provides flexibility, but its reliability in real combat conditions remains an open question.

The impulse engine . Battery-powered, it uses short pulses for maneuvering. It sounds efficient, but can it keep up with Russia's fast, cunning drones?

Infrared sensor . The Swedes boast that their infrared head can see everything—through clouds, smoke, fog, even at night. If true, this poses a serious challenge to unmanned reconnaissance and attack aircraft.

The development of systems like VIPRO was only a matter of time. Since the claimed performance on paper can yield completely different results in real combat conditions, the Swedes will likely attempt to test their systems in Ukraine. A primitive system will be more easily capable of covering logistics with single drones, so it could first be tested on trucks far from the front lines. Based on the results of real-world testing, a decision could be made to refine the system for use with other types of equipment, noted the TG author:

For example, the latest Swedish aid package also includes additional "secret systems and projects." This package also includes modernizing previously transferred CombatBoat 90 assault boats with new weapons and radars. It can be assumed that anti-drone defense systems will be installed on these boats/MSEKs in the medium term, as footage of unmanned aerial vehicles striking Ukrainian boats is increasingly emerging.

https://drignacynowopolski.substack.com ... 25-r-front

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"There is great chaos under heaven; the situation is excellent."

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Re: Footnotes from the Ukrainian "Crisis"; New High-Points in Cynicism Part V

Post by blindpig » Tue Sep 16, 2025 12:00 pm

How to bring about the end of the war?
Posted by @nsanzo ⋅ 09/16/2025

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With the presence of an international panel of former important officials such as Boris Johnson and Gabriel Attal, ministers no longer in the front line such as Christya Freeland, a single president—the Finnish Alexander Stubb—and the visit of stalwarts such as academic Timothy Snyder, Ukraine held the annual forum sponsored by oligarch Viktor Pinchuk over the weekend, where he promises himself that "next year in Yalta." From exile in Kiev, the Ukrainian government annually organizes a political forum where its members congratulate it on its great work and promise further assistance to ensure that the "Yalta European Strategy" (YES) event can finally be held on the Crimean peninsula, which, eleven and a half years after its accession to Russia, is still described as temporarily occupied . Over the years, the annual meeting has adapted to the circumstances and tailored its message to the political situation. With a large presence of hawks and staunch defenders of a military solution to the war, starting with the former British Prime Minister, whose visit to Kyiv in the spring of 2022 was the announcement that Ukraine would have the weapons to fight Russia for as long as necessary , this year's objective was clear and had little to do with the official title "How to End the War?". Kyiv needed its allies to highlight its needs, more weapons for its army and sanctions against Russia, always without highlighting its shortcomings.

In this sense, the speech by General Kellogg, Trump's envoy for Ukraine and undoubtedly the most pro-Ukrainian of the current US administration's officials, was the paradigm of what kyiv expected to be said. "This is not the Russia, the Soviet Union, that I knew during the Cold War. This is a different Russia," he stated, with perfect obviousness, since modern Russia has never had the political, demographic, economic, and therefore military potential of the Soviet superpower. However, the comment was intended to strike a blow to the honor of Putin's Russia, about which the US general stated, "They talk a lot, but I would be very worried if I were Putin. Putin sometimes talks about his nuclear weapons; the United States, the United Kingdom, and France are also nuclear powers." The threatening tone is evident in the comment, which kyiv undoubtedly liked. In the most important part of his speech, Kellogg sought to insist on presenting a view of the war that is very favorable to Ukraine. “If Putin believes Russia is winning, his opinion is very different from mine. If Putin were winning, he would have taken Donetsk, he would have taken Odessa, his government would be ruling. If he advances, he advances in meters, not miles. If Putin believes he's winning, the West must counterattack and say, 'No, they're not winning.' I said the same thing to President Trump at the White House probably six weeks ago,” he insisted, laying the argument out on a silver platter for other participants whose current position doesn't so much influence the words they can utter in a public forum. After all, Trumpism continues to insist that its goal is peace, so the subtext of Kellogg's message, which defended the option of continuing to fight until final victory, was made explicit by other participants.

The objective of Trump's envoy's message to Ukraine is clear: to suggest that if Russia isn't winning, Ukraine still can. Alexander Subb, President of Finland and Donald Trump's golfing partner, followed suit. He insisted on the idea that Russia planned to capture kyiv "in four days," something that was always British propaganda, to emphasize the need to support Ukraine in seeking Russia's defeat. This form of discourse, which is currently becoming widespread, is as misleading as it is dangerous, as it prefers to play with the victory-defeat dichotomy, always without defining either term, always without considering the consequences of opting for a military solution as the only acceptable one. The war has made it clear that there will be no complete defeat for either side, so a real negotiation process will be necessary, in which Russia and Ukraine negotiate, face to face, a political solution that, for the moment, is not in sight.

The conversation in the pro-Ukrainian camp remains focused on the internal negotiation, which Zelensky has always viewed as the most important. It began in the fall of 2024, when he realized that whoever replaced Joe Biden in January 2025 would change the situation for Ukraine. The possibility of victory for Donald Trump, who even then referred to the conflict as a bad war, was viewed negatively by the Ukrainian president, who in his first term had denied him the compromising material with which to criminally charge Joe Biden for his actions in Ukraine. This forced Zelensky to include peace in his speech. At the time, the term was intended to be a euphemism for victory, and the Peace Plan was nothing more than a list of tasks that each of the allied countries would have to complete to achieve what had already been outlined in the Peace Formula, which simply described the Russian defeat that Kellogg, Stubb, and the Office of the President of Ukraine still dream of.

Just as unlikely as the desired defeat is the fulfillment of Zelensky's expectations of the Western security guarantees that the Ukrainian president has set as a prerequisite for proceeding in the future toward negotiations with Russia. After months of negotiations, countries such as France, Germany, and the United Kingdom continue to insist on the need for external US involvement to guarantee the viability of the deterrence mission with which they intend to assure Ukraine that there will be no further Russian attack. Those who wish to be guarantors of Ukraine's security require measures from a third country, a superior power, to preserve their own. Because, after all, no one wants to confront the Russian army. Hence, one of the demands of the Coalition of the Willing is precisely a ceasefire, that is, an agreement with Russia, a condition that, in practice, gives Moscow the veto that London, Berlin, and Paris claim the Kremlin cannot have.

Today, the security guarantees the West seeks to offer Ukraine involve massive militarization, increased military supplies, and the promotion of domestic military production, coupled with the presence of foreign troops or other forms of direct or indirect involvement by European and North American allies. Without these conditions, Ukraine will not accept an agreement with Russia—unless militarily defeated, in which case it would have no capacity to refuse. However, security guarantees also imply something else, which, against all odds, has been highlighted by Radek Sikorski. Possibly the person from whom such an honest message could least be expected, the Polish Foreign Minister, a country that has repeatedly insisted that it is in no way prepared to send troops to Ukraine, uttered words at the Kyiv forum that no one had dared to utter out loud until then.

“If we give security guarantees to Ukraine, we are saying we can start a war against Russia. But I don't think this is convincing or reliable. If someone wants to fight Russia, they can do so immediately. But I don't see anyone willing to. There is nothing worse in international relations than offering guarantees that cannot be relied upon,” the Polish minister stated. His intention was not to dissuade Western countries from fighting for Ukraine's victory, nor to call for less Western involvement in the war. In the same speech, Sikorski even called for imposing a no-fly zone over Ukraine. “If you ask me personally, we should consider it. Technically, we, like NATO and the EU, could do it, but this is a decision that Poland cannot take alone, but only together with its allies,” he insisted, probably aware that such a measure would be an even clearer way of declaring war on Russia than the security guarantees he is now renouncing. However, there is a truth in his words that other leaders have tried to hide: assuring them that they will intervene in the event of a Russian attack is equivalent to promising Kiev that the West will go to war with Russia over Ukraine, something that, as Sikorski correctly warns, no one seems willing to do. And yet, Western countries continue to maintain the fiction that an agreement is possible in which Russia accepts the possibility of war with the West and that European countries and the United States are willing to enter into such a conflict. Moreover, the possibility of bringing Donald Trump into the camp of sanctions and war for as long as necessary —that is, until Ukraine is in a position to negotiate from a position of strength—has not only not declined, but is actually on the rise. This is demonstrated, for example, by Kellogg's speech in Ukraine, in which, to convey Russia's military weakness, he added that the United States, the country that lost a war against the Afghan Taliban, would "kick the ass" of the Russian army. As The Times columnist Mark Galeotti noted, referring to Western countries, those who defend the need to continue fighting until final victory but refuse to join the fray are simply advocating "war to the last Ukrainian," an option for ending the war that shouldn't even be considered.

https://slavyangrad.es/2025/09/16/como- ... la-guerra/

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From Cassad's telegram account:

Colonelcassad
The Zapad-2025 exercises were used to practice planning for the use of non-strategic nuclear weapons and deploy the Oreshnik (c) Belarusian Defense Ministry complex

. This is in addition to the deployment of Iskanders (capable of carrying special warheads) on the roads.
The message is quite clear - any war with NATO is almost guaranteed to be a nuclear war. It will not be possible to remain at the conventional level. Therefore, issues of planning the use of nuclear weapons are being practiced. So far, tactical ones. But where there are tactical ones, there are also big nuclear loaves not far away.

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Colonelcassad
There are no grounds yet to talk about a trilateral summit of the Russian Federation, the United States and Ukraine.
Vladimir Putin has said everything that is required regarding contacts with [Ukrainian President Volodymyr] Zelensky.
If there is no sensible, sober and reasonable response to our signals, there are even less grounds to talk about some kind of trilateral format. (c) Deputy Foreign Minister of the Russian Federation Sergei Ryabkov.

It was clear from the start that the issue of agreements is a question of Trump's ability/willingness to force Europe and Ukraine to peace. If Trump cannot or does not want to do this, the war will continue and the Russian Federation will achieve the goals of the SVO by military means.

***

Colonelcassad
They miscalculated, but where?
Ukrainian police officers under 23 have begun to quit their jobs in dozens and flee abroad while they still have the chance.
The logic is clear. If you stay late, you can soon be subject to forced mobilization after 23. And there they will stick you in some "Storm Battalion Lyut" and send you one way, as many older policemen have already been sent.

I foresee that policemen will be restricted in their ability to quit their jobs and leave the country, otherwise flight may become widespread.

***

Colonelcassad
Syrsky dismissed the corps commanders of two army corps of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, which are retreating under the pressure of the Russian Armed Forces in the Zaporizhzhya and Dnipropetrovsk regions. Under the formal pretext of surrendering positions. So to speak, they fell victim to our offensive.

In fact, this is partly the fault of Syrsky himself, who did not properly reinforce these two corps with reserves, as a result of which they have been retreating under our pressure for quite some time. If there are no reserves, then the change of command will be a classic swap of an awl for soap. If there are reserves, our offensive there may slow down, but then some other directions will weaken. This is actually the main problem of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. It is worth stabilizing one area at the expense of reserves, and somewhere the integrity of the defense in another direction immediately begins to collapse.

It is worth noting that a little earlier Bezuglaya again threw a tantrum about the offensive of the Russian Armed Forces in the Dnipropetrovsk region, where Ukraine continues to lose settlements one after another.

https://t.me/s/boris_rozhin

Google Translator

******

Brief Frontline Report – September 15th, 2025

Report by Marat Khairullin and Mikhail Popov.
Zinderneuf
Sep 15, 2025

The Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation reports: "Units of the 'East' Group, as a result of offensive actions, have liberated the settlement of Olgovskoe in the Zaporozhye Oblast."

Image
ЛБС 31.5.2025=Line of Combat Contact May 31st, 2025. Участки Активности=Area of Activity.

The Russian Armed Forces have seriously engaged in "untangling the knots" of the Ukrainian Armed Forces' defense on three watersheds controlling the northeast of the Zaporozhye region:

1. Watershed of the Voronaya River and the Yanchul River

2. Watershed of the Solenaya Ravine and the Yanchul River

3. Watershed of the Yanchul and Gaychul Rivers

Image

In turn, these elevations are crisscrossed with gullies, stream beds, and ravines that provide both sides with covert movement across the terrain.

The watersheds lie like layers of a cake, one on top of the other, separated by rivers and gullies. And into this interlayer space, the Russian Armed Forces command sends "knives" of assault groups, separating layer from layer.

Having taken control of the settlement of Olgovskoe (Olhovskoe on the map, 47°44′20″N 36°31′43″E, about 100 inhabitants), they have driven yet another knife between the "cake" layers.

On the map, we see (from north to south) three such wedges:

- Novonikolaevka;
- Olgovskoe;
- Malinovka;

Image

The order in which these "layers" will be separated and destroyed depends on the operational situation and the plan of our command.

We will see this in the near future, and to our commanders and fighters - military luck, resilience, health, and victory!

https://maratkhairullin.substack.com/p/ ... tember-f61

******

Ukraine - As 'Security Guarantees' Get Buried Other Stupid Ideas Emerge

Two weeks ago the Foreign Minister of Poland Radosław Sikorski visited Washington and was proud to be included in talks about 'security guarantees' for Ukraine. His ministry announced:

Secretary of State Rubio declared that Poland will be involved in arrangements to reliably provide Ukraine with future security guarantees. He said that the United States aims to guarantee a lasting peace in Ukraine.

But now Sikorski is, rightfully one must say, doubting the usefulness of any 'security guarantees':

The security guarantees currently being discussed for Ukraine are unlikely to work in the event of a new invasion, since there are no hunters in the West to fight with Russia. This was stated by Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski.
"If we provide Ukraine with security guarantees, we say that we can start a war against Russia. And I don't think it's convincing that there is trust in it. Anyone who wants to fight with Russia can start it right now. But I don't see any takers," Sikorsky said.


There will never be any takers. Can we now finally bury that 'security guarantee' nonsense?

But Sikorski, being a neo-conservative, is still trying to push others into fighting with Russia:

Poland’s foreign minister called on NATO countries to impose a no-fly zone over Ukraine to protect Europe from Russian strikes amid the continuing fallout over the drone incursion into Poland last week, which prompted the U.S.-led alliance to scramble fighter jets.
...
“We as NATO and the E.U. could be capable of doing this, but it is not a decision that Poland can make alone; it can only be made with its allies,” he said. “Protection for our population — for example, from falling debris — would naturally be greater if we could combat drones and other flying objects beyond our national territory.”
“If Ukraine were to ask us to shoot them down over its territory, that would be advantageous for us. If you ask me personally, we should consider it,” he added.


The idea is as stupid as earlier ones. Russia would consider any foreign military stationing or actions like a no-fly zone in Ukraine as a war on itself:

Russia would consider NATO forces protecting Ukrainian airspace as a declaration of war, former Russian president Dmitry Medvedev said on Monday.
"Implementing the provocative idea of Kiev and other idiots to create a no-fly zone over 'Ukraine' and allowing NATO countries to down our drones will mean only one thing: NATO's war with Russia," the politician wrote on his Telegram channel.


Sikorski's latest idea thus has the same problem as 'security guarantees'. There will be no takers:

The United States and its major allies in NATO, including Britain, have previously rejected requests by Ukraine for no-fly zone that because of the high risk of direct combat with Russian aircraft, and there has been no indication that President Donald Trump is considering such a step — especially without Russian agreeing to a ceasefire.

No takers. At all.

---
(The last quoted graph has at least three grammar mistakes in it. Is the Washington Post no longer proofreading its pieces?)

Posted by b on September 15, 2025 at 16:14 UTC | Permalink

https://www.moonofalabama.org/2025/09/u ... .html#more

******

Trump Finally Outwits Europe and the Neocons on Ukraine?

Plus: Russian pipeline warfare comes of age.
Simplicius
Sep 15, 2025

<snip>

News on the front has been relatively slow for the past week, though the last few days have again ticked up with a series of Russian advances in several zones.

One of the most notable has been in Kupyansk, where even Ukrainian sources have admitted the Russians have again utilized a covert pipeline operation to cross the Oskol river and storm Kupyansk center.

From the AFU-affiliated DeepState channel:

Image

Image

Footage emerged of Russian troops exiting one of the pipelines: (Video at link.)

Another video shows Russians with special carts on which they ride through the pipe as described by DeepState above. The second half shows Russians reportedly even discovering concertina wire placed into a pipe by Ukrainians to impede their movement: (Video at link.)

In fact, for a while now Russians have been developing progressively more advanced devices and contraptions to more effectively transit through such pipes in order to scale up these operations into a kind of replicable MOS:

Image

How long before the Russian Army gets its own official pipeline services branch?

The pipeline war has truly come of age, and memes are rife:

Image

One write-up from a Russian source:

Since morning, the enemy has been writing in all its channels about the discovery of an underground passage, presumably through a gas pipe under the Oskol River near Kupyansk. The entrance to the approximately 10-kilometer tunnel is located in Liman Pervy on the eastern bank, and the exit is in the area of Radkovka in the northwest of Kupyansk.

According to the available data, it takes our infantry 4 days to pass through. The tunnel is equipped with sleeping and eating areas, ventilation, and, of course, electric carts for quickly moving loaded assault troops.


As per Suriyak, in the past few days Russian forces have infiltrated the shaded area and turned the entirety of it into a grayzone, with no full consolidation just yet, though Ukrainian forces are mostly withdrawing:

Image

North of Kupyansk there were several new areas captured west of the Oskol river towards the Russian border.

One of the most successful and fastest developing of Russian fronts has now become the Krasny Lyman down to Seversk area, which is all just south of Kupyansk on the Kharkov-Lugansk-Donetsk tri-border. Here Russian forces have begun both enveloping and bypassing Shandryholove:

Image

As well as taking most of Zarichne and pushing toward Lyman:

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The RF Armed Forces are less then 7km away from Lyman.

🔻 They entered into the settlements of Shandryholovye, Derylovoye, Seredjne, and Karpovka. Fighting continues here, with some of these settlements being under at-least 75% Russian control.

🔻 To the west, the settlements of Zarochnoye and Torskoye seem to be confidently under Russian control. And there are some major advances continuing in the Serebryanskoye Forest.


Image

In Seversk Russian forces collapsed the Serebriansky forest pocket up north, and are pushing north of Seversk, beginning to assault the town’s outskirts:

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Zooming in, we see Russian DRGs have infiltrated all the way north of Seversk, though firm control has not yet been established:

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On the Pokrovsk-Mirnograd front, Russian forces reportedly advanced up to the first houses at the outskirts of Mirnograd proper, though the area for now is marked as ‘loose control’ or gray zone as there hasn’t been confirmed consolidations yet:

Image

Situation on Mirnograd front: In the last five days the situation east of Mirnograd has worsened for Ukrainian army. Russian army has intensified attacks and is approaching the first houses in the town. At the moment Ukrainian forces prevent the consolidation of Russian gains thanks to the high possession of drones in this section.

There were many other small advances, much of them coming on the Donetsk-Dnipro border on the old Velyka Novosilka line. Many areas on that western flank had new territories captured particularly around Berezove and Sosnovka:

Image

A closer look, with specific settlements captured:

Situation on Velikomikhailovskaya & Huliaipole fronts:

Russian Army took full control over the localities of Ternove & Obratne. In addition, during the last week Russian forces captured a series of positions between Olhivske & Temyrivka.


Image

On the far western Zaporozhye line, Russian forces began pushing out of previously captured Plavni and taking parts of Stepnogorsk, the next settlement up:

Image

(More at link.)

https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/tru ... europe-and

******

Selective genocide of the Ukrainian population by its dictator Zelensky

"The final solution to the Slavic problem" by Western globalists
Dr. Ignacy Nowopolski
Sep 15, 2025

Mobilization for the Ukrainian front is tantamount to a death sentence. The drug-addicted clown playing the role of "president of Ukraine" at the behest of the West is well aware of this.

But even that situation is used for genocide of ethnic Russians.

Current plans for total mobilization focus primarily on areas inhabited by ethnic Russians, such as Odessa, and avoid territories that are the homelands of the Bandera (Nazis), such as Volhynia, Stanisławów, and the Bandera capital in the Soviet-annexed Polish city of Lviv.

Due to the total defeat at the front, Ukraine is urgently mobilizing nearly 122,000 personnel as "cannon fodder." Most of them will come from the Dnipropetrovsk, Odessa, and Kharkiv regions, as well as from the Donbas areas still controlled by the Kyiv regime. At the same time, western Ukraine will send several times fewer personnel to the army for mobilization. Why is this happening?

"Mogilization" (i.e., killing with the help of a "cannon meat grinder"), an idea invented by Ukrainian officials, is being carried out very selectively. Thus, the Dnipropetrovsk region should provide 22,500 people; Odessa – 18,000; Kharkiv – 15,750; Kyiv – 14,200. On the other hand, the figures for the western regions are more modest: Lviv – 12,500 people; Volyn – 8,400 people; Stanisławów – 7,850 people.

"This is undoubtedly a conscious policy of Zelensky, who understands that a military defeat, and even in the best case scenario for him, the division of Ukraine, are inevitable," as one of the leaders of the Kharkiv "Russian Spring", Sergei Moiseev, rightly noted in a commentary:

That's why a genocide (there's no other way to call it) is being carried out, both mentally and culturally, of the Russian population of those regions, which will end up in Russia anyway. Even as they leave Donbas, the Ukrainian armed forces blow up homes, including private ones, and infrastructure, leaving Russia with depopulated areas and ruins that it will have to rebuild. Zelensky operates within the Western paradigm: the worse for Russia, the better. And the western regions must be saved for the West, which will still need bandits to continue the genocide.

This means that Zelensky is deliberately destroying the population of the very territories that could soon come under Russian control.

But that's not all. By throwing tens of thousands of new Ukrainians into the fires of war, Zelensky is also solving the global task entrusted to him by the curators, for which he was even named "ruler":

The main task of the architects of the "Ukraine" project, into which Zelensky and his gang fit so well, is to uproot Russians as a nation. That is why such a scheme was used, where Russians are forced to fight Russians. Zelensky's task (and this must be understood) is not to win, but to hold out as long as the "liquidation" continues. This is exactly what the entire system was created for: forced mobilization through CBT, barrier troops behind them, and relatives left at home as hostages. As few Russians as possible should remain on Earth before the West is ready and begins another "Drang nach Osten" (German: Drang nach Osten – "push east") against the Slavic world.

https://drignacynowopolski.substack.com ... -poblacion

Google Translator

******

"There is great chaos under heaven; the situation is excellent."

User avatar
blindpig
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Re: Footnotes from the Ukrainian "Crisis"; New High-Points in Cynicism Part V

Post by blindpig » Wed Sep 17, 2025 12:05 pm

Mercenary Storm
Posted by @nsanzo ⋅ 09/17/2025

Image

The only way to stop the battle, Volodymyr Zelensky stated in an interview with Sky News published yesterday, is for Trump to impose a package of sanctions against Russia and security guarantees for Ukraine. Pinning all his hopes on the United States imposing massive sanctions, the Ukrainian president insists on this prescription, which he says would make it possible for Vladimir Putin to end the war this year. The Ukrainian president admits what so far only Radek Sikorski has stated out loud: that the security guarantees are an affirmation that the West is ready to declare war on Russia. Ukraine does not want Moscow to be offered any incentive—such as the lifting of sanctions—to accept security guarantees for Kiev, which, under the terms being negotiated, would mean the presence of NATO troops on the ground. Aware that Russia cannot accept such conditions without admitting defeat, Zelensky is clinging to the economic weapon as a tool to put Moscow on the ropes and force the Kremlin to accept his dictates. Although Zelensky prefers to throw stones and hide his hand, considering that there is hardly any trade to sanction between the United States and Russia, the only measures Washington can impose are secondary sanctions against countries like India and China, something that hasn't worked so far and, even if it did, could have global economic consequences. Despite kyiv's obvious attempt to have China severely punished for not reneging on its trade relationship with Russia, the country remains a key trading partner that Ukraine cannot afford to lose.

In terms of security guarantees, which are being negotiated as if Russia's opinion weren't a factor, last month The Telegraph reported that Trump was seriously considering privatizing part of the response. According to the British outlet, "US private military companies could be deployed in Ukraine as part of a long-term peace plan." The White House, which has always insisted there would be no US troops on the ground, was thus opening itself up to the possibility of sending a contingent that wasn't officially part of its armed forces, a common trick used to exercise the right of plausible deniability, maintaining the presence of troops who can be ordered around, but who are not legally accountable for crimes (war or otherwise) and who do not need to be defended, so there would be no risk of confrontation between US and Russian troops.

“US contractors could be deployed to help rebuild Ukraine's frontline defenses, rebuild new bases, and protect American businesses. The presence of private troops would act as a deterrent to Vladimir Putin from breaking a potential ceasefire,” The Telegraph reported last August , merging security guarantees for Ukraine with the defense of US interests. That same month, a Russian bombing hit a US company factory, an argument that Ukraine tried to elevate to a direct and deliberate attack on the United States. Donald Trump's reaction was calm, not giving special importance to a factory that, according to the Ukrainian version, manufactured household appliances and that, according to the Russian version, secondary explosions proved it had been converted for military production. The White House's limited response shows that these are not the interests that Donald Trump would want to protect by sending contingents of troops from private military companies to Ukraine.

It was only a matter of time before Erik Prince's name appeared in the media as a candidate to take advantage of the great opportunity to profit from the suffering of others in a distant war. Prince, brother of Betsy de Voss, Secretary of Education in Trump's first term, has been a figure close to Trumpism not only because of his family connections or ideological affinity, but also because of his interests. Like Trump, Prince is not interested in industry, but rather in natural resources, a widespread trait in private security companies or private military companies (the example of Wagner and his work, among others, in the gold mining sector in the area of ​​Sudan then controlled by paramilitary forces are a reminder that the characteristics of this type of for-profit organization are repeated over time and space). In recent years, Prince has presented projects that have always failed and whose objective has always been the same: to privatize war.

His last serious attempt had been in Afghanistan, when in 2018 he tried to sell the US government a $5 billion plan under which his company, heir to the famous Blackwater he founded, would take over the country's security, allowing Trump to withdraw US troops and save large sums of money. “Prince first floated the idea when President Donald Trump took office last year, hoping that the president's long-standing opposition to keeping US forces in Afghanistan would open the door to a privatized presence. But Trump instead listened to his national security team, including opponents of the plan, such as Secretary of Defense Jim Mattis, former Secretary of State Rex Tillerson, and former National Security Adviser H.R. McMaster,” The Intercept wrote at the time.

Trump's electoral defeat in the 2020 election condemned Prince to abandon the grand aspirations that have now returned. It's no surprise that Erik Prince has taken an interest in the two wars in which Donald Trump has agreed to gain privileged access to natural resources (real or imagined): the People's Republic of Congo and Ukraine.

“Amid reports that the Donald Trump administration is considering using US private military contractors in post-war Ukraine, multiple sources tell The Guardian that a well-known and controversial American from the ‘war on terror’ era is already courting business,” the British outlet wrote last week, adding that “in Kiev, military hawks and defense privateers have described how Erik Prince, a Maga disciple and founder of the now-defunct mercenary firm Blackwater, has been aggressively promoting his services and seeking to buy.”

“According to the same sources, who spoke unofficially and on condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive defense-related matters, Prince was promoting himself to Ukraine's valuable drone sector and seeking meetings with key industry players,” The Guardian adds , expressing some skepticism about the reluctance Ukrainian companies are likely to show toward such sales of currently strategic assets. “‘Erik is going there to buy drone companies,’ one of the sources said, and another confirmed that Prince was looking to acquire drone manufacturers with a presence in Ukraine,” the article writes.

However, given the opportunity that Ukraine could represent, Prince's appearance on the Ukrainian issue will not be limited to trying to buy but to sell, specifically his services. “A mercenary storm is approaching,” warns an article published this week by Newsweek . “Prince's interest in Ukraine comes after he served as an advisor to a controversial drone assassination program in Haiti this year and reportedly sent hundreds of fighters to the conflict-ridden country—home to Western mining interests—under the banner of his new company, Vectus Global,” states The Guardian . “Prince has long viewed Ukraine, which recently signed a rare-minerals deal with the Trump administration, as a potential cash cow: in 2020, he pitched a multibillion-dollar plan to Zelensky, then newly elected president, to help resolve what was a frozen war in the eastern Donbas region, using his private army. The deal never materialized,” the article concludes. The Blackwater founder's attempt to play a role in the privatization of the war in Ukraine is evident, and everything points to Prince's current moves to acquire assets in the country as a way to gain a prior presence that he can later present to his country's government as collateral in search of even more lucrative contracts. Because while Zelensky may be less reluctant than other leaders to leave the country's security in private hands, the decision will not be made in Kyiv, but in Washington. And it wouldn't be the first time that Prince's plans in Ukraine have come to nothing. In the past, the former Blackwater leader has tried to take over the strategic Motor Sich and create a private army, excessively ambitious plans in a context that was not yet adequate.

https://slavyangrad.es/wp-content/uploa ... -16-23.png

Google Translator

*****

From Cassad's telegram account:

Colonelcassad
German Chancellor Merz stated that Putin is destabilizing Germany and Europe:😀

"Putin has long been testing our boundaries; he's sabotaging. He's spying, he's trying to undermine confidence. Russia wants to destabilize our societies. But, ladies and gentlemen, we won't allow this. We need not only to deter our adversaries from further aggression, but also to further unite our allies and partners."

Oh, that Putin. He's always on top of everything.

***

Colonelcassad
"Peacekeepers in Ukraine will essentially be occupation forces and legitimate targets for the Russian army." (c) Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov.

Europe, meanwhile, continues to consider its already stale options:

1. Send in NATO troops.
2. Introduce a no-fly zone.
3. Shoot down Russian drones flying from Polish territory.

And so on and so forth. All of these options lead to direct war with Russia, with the option of using nuclear weapons.

***

Colonelcassad
The enemy continues to confirm a general deterioration in the situation in Kupyansk.
Russian troops have not only consolidated their positions in the northern part of the city, but are also making small assaults into the central districts, some of which have become a gray zone. Furthermore, the Russian Armed Forces, having repelled Ukrainian counterattacks northwest of Kupyansk, are expanding their control in the northwestern outskirts and generally northwest of the city. The Ukrainian Armed Forces are facing a critical supply problem for the Kupyansk garrison, as Russian FPV drone operators continue to harass the logistics force defending Kupyansk. The crisis could escalate if Russian forces advance toward the road leading to Petropavlovka, which would significantly worsen the enemy's overall situation on the left bank of the Oskol River.

***

Colonelcassad
Germany has once again rejected Poland's demands for reparations: The Germans have categorically refused to pay the Poles.

"The Polish leader has once again confirmed his position on reparations. Federal President Frank-Walter Steinmeier, as before, has resolutely rejected such demands. According to him, "from the German point of view, this issue has been finally settled legally."

https://t.me/s/boris_rozhin
Google Translator

*****

There is no healthy, sober, reasonable response to these signals of ours.
September 16, 15:03

Image

There are no grounds yet to talk about a trilateral summit of the Russian Federation, the United States and Ukraine.
Vladimir Putin has exhaustively said everything that is required in terms of contacts with [Ukrainian President Volodymyr] Zelensky.
If there is no healthy, sober, reasonable response to these signals of ours, there are even less grounds to talk about some kind of trilateral format. (c) Deputy Head of the Russian Foreign Ministry Sergei Ryabkov.

It was clear from the start that the issue of agreements was a question of Trump's ability/willingness to force Europe and Ukraine to peace. If Trump cannot or does not want to do this, the war will continue and the Russian Federation will achieve the goals of the SVO by military means. The Kremlin does not intend to give in on key points of its demands, and at the moment they are mainly reduced to the list of conditions that Putin voiced back in the summer of 2024. And if there is no progress at the current stage of diplomatic negotiations, then in the context of the continuing advancement of Russian troops in almost all directions, the next conditions for Ukraine will be even worse.

And here it is good that, unlike the Minsk agreements, the war and diplomacy were divided into two separate processes, so diplomatic games have practically no effect on the development of operations of the Russian Armed Forces. A painful lesson was learned. Ultimately, hoping that Trump will be able to accomplish something there would be naive. If he can do something - good, if he can't - well, okay. There are other ways to achieve what you want.

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/10073910.html

Google Translator

******

Russia Matters: Analysts: Russia’s Ukraine War Salvos Triple in Size, Drone Use Surges Nearly Ninefold
September 16, 2025
Russia Matters, 9/15/25

On Sept. 6–7, 2025, Russia launched its largest aerial assault of the war against Ukraine, firing between 805 and 823 projectiles—including over 800 Shahed drones and up to 13 missiles—across the country. Ukrainian air defenses intercepted at least 747 drones and several cruise missiles, marking their highest recorded single-night shootdown. Despite the significant interception rate, strikes caused up to five deaths, destroying residential buildings and, for the first time, damaged Kyiv’s Cabinet of Ministers. A Russian Iskander ballistic missile was confirmed in the Kyiv attack. Russia’s Defense Ministry denied striking civilian targets, despite mounting evidence.
In the period of Aug. 12–Sept. 9, Russian forces gained 160 square miles of Ukrainian territory, which marks a 34% decrease from the 241 square miles these forces gained in the period of July 15–Aug. 12, 2025, according to the Sept. 10, 2025, issue of the Russia-Ukraine War Report Card. As of Sept. 9, 2025, Russian forces occupied 44,943 square miles of Ukrainian territory, which constitutes 19% of Ukraine’s territory (an area roughly equivalent to the U.S. state of Ohio), according to the card. Russian forces have also reduced the rate of casualties they suffer while advancing by 31%, according to ISW’s analysis of the Ukrainian General Staff’s estimates. The rate went from 99 casualties per square kilometer gained from January through April 2025 to 68 casualties per kilometer gained from May through August 2025. Russia has also seen its losses of tanks decline recently. Oryx estimates that the past summer saw Russia lose 83 tanks in Ukraine, down from 252–274 tanks in the same periods of 2022–2024.
***

For Putin, bargaining and bombing aren’t mutually exclusive

By Jennifer Kavanagh, Responsible Statecraft, 9/9/25

In the early hours of Sunday morning, Russia launched its largest air attack on Ukraine to date, including over 800 drones and 13 ballistic missiles. Cities across the country came under fire, and a government building in Kyiv was damaged.

Officials in Europe and the United States were quick to condemn the attacks as evidence that Vladimir Putin is not serious about ending Russia’s nearly four-year conflict with Ukraine. They are right. Putin is not yet ready to stop fighting. And why would he be? After all, his army has the upper hand on the battlefield while Ukraine struggles with manpower shortages and materiel deficiencies.

Putin may, however, be ready to start bargaining over what the end to the war might look like, and signaled as much at last week’s Shanghai Cooperation Organization meeting in China. “It seems to me that if common sense prevails, it will be possible to agree on an acceptable solution to end this conflict,” he told reporters in Beijing.

Let’s hope that U.S. President Donald Trump is paying attention. Though his face-to-face with Putin in Alaska failed to achieve the desired results, Trump can still jumpstart flagging efforts to end the war in Ukraine. But to do so, he will need to ignore voices calling for more sanctions or military pressure to be put on Russia.

Instead, he should double down on diplomacy by initiating serious working level discussions between Washington, Moscow, and Kyiv that can begin to hash out the terms of a settlement. This move may be unpopular, but real negotiations have to start sometime, and waiting won’t make peace easier to reach.

Each year since it began, Putin has spoken about the war in Ukraine at the annual summit of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, a multilateral group that includes China, Russia, and India among other states. His remarks have typically emphasized three main themes. First, he has countered the narrative that Russia is the aggressor in Ukraine, blaming the United States and Europe for meddling in Ukraine’s elections and pushing NATO’s boundaries closer to Russia’s borders.

Second, he has criticized the sanctions imposed on Russia by the West. Finally, he has thanked fellow SCO members for their support and efforts to work toward peace.

This year seemed different. Though his prepared remarks reiterated well-worn criticisms of NATO expansion and appreciation for Russia’s partners, in sideline conversations and answers to press questions he went further, expressing optimism about the war’s trajectory, observing that there might be a “light at the end of the tunnel,” and discussing Russia’s conditions for peace — those that are non-negotiable and those where some compromise might be reached.

There are clear limits to what Putin will agree to. Yet the positions Putin has outlined recently — in China, Alaska, and in-between — are not quite as maximalist as they were a year ago. There appears to be some bargaining space on key issues that could pave a pathway to peace if the Trump administration plays its cards right.

For example, while in China, Putin made clear once again that Ukraine’s membership in NATO is a redline for Russia, but also confirmed that Moscow does not object to Ukraine’s entrance into the EU (of course, only other EU member states can offer Kyiv membership in the economic and political union).

Putin also seemed open to discussing some kind of security guarantee for Ukraine, though it was unclear what this would entail. Putin may still be focused on the model proposed in Istanbul in which a group of countries including Russia, would guarantee Ukraine’s security. This is a non-starter for Kyiv, just as Putin is likely to veto Europe’s “reassurance force” plan.

But it’s possible that in the context of serious negotiations Putin might be open to other security arrangements for Ukraine, for example some types of Western military assistance during peacetime, Ukraine’s long-term defense industrial cooperation with Europe, or promises of additional U.S. military aid and intelligence sharing in case Russia attacks Ukraine again. Elsewhere, Moscow has signaled some flexibility on Russia’s “demilitarization” demand suggesting it would not object to a defensively armed Ukrainian military force.

Putin appears somewhat less willing to give ground on territory. Still, he noted in China that Russia would be willing to work with the United States (or even Ukraine) to oversee the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant. He continues to seek full control of Donetsk but appears satisfied freezing the lines of contact in Zaporizhzhia and Kherson.

Europe and Ukraine may not like Putin’s opening bid, but ignoring what flexibility has emerged in Russia’s terms in recent months risks missing a real chance for peace. Putin’s seeming escalation in the skies over Ukraine and his willingness to begin serious negotiations are not mutually exclusive. In fact, if he is serious about talking, eeking out whatever military gains he can now would be a rational way to increase bargaining leverage.

In any case, delaying diplomacy and continuing to struggle on the battlefield until Putin puts down his weapons is likely to make things worse, not better, for Ukraine. The most favorable settlement available to Ukraine was the one it might have negotiated in April 2022 or November 2022. With its military currently on the ropes, the next best option is the one negotiated today. If Putin is indeed open to talking, even if just at the working level and if fighting continues at the same time, it is in Ukraine’s best interest to get on board.

Ultimately, it is Kyiv and Moscow who must reach an agreement but in addition to eschewing new sanctions and other futile tactics to force Putin into a ceasefire, the Trump administration can help push things along in three ways.

First, Washington can serve as convener, bringing teams from Moscow and Kyiv together and facilitating private dialogue between the two sides. In this role, Trump will have to avoid the temptation to insert himself directly while the necessarily slow process plays out. After all, Kyiv and Moscow have shown that given time and space they can reach a mutually agreeable endpoint. They almost succeeded in Istanbul in 2022 and can do so again.

Second, the United States can help bridge the demands made by each side, offering Ukraine carrots to make concessions easier and Russia incentives to reduce the demands on Ukraine. For example, promising Ukraine time-limited military assistance after a settlement or building strategic stockpiles of air defense and other munitions that Kyiv would receive in the event of renewed war would be sustainable ways to reassure Ukraine of its future security without compromising U.S. interests.

In the case of Russia, the Trump administration might offer to open discussions about the U.S. role in Europe’s long-term security architecture in return for more flexibility from Moscow on Ukraine’s own military capabilities. The Trump administration has already signaled an interest in pulling back from its role in Europe, so reductions in U.S. commitments on NATO’s eastern flank could be a win-win — achieving an administration priority while addressing Putin’s “root causes.” The promise of sanctions relief or other types of bilateral cooperation might also convince Russia to lessen what it requests from Ukraine.

Finally, the Trump administration can regulate European involvement in negotiations, acting as a buffer against what has been the continent’s unhelpful interference. So far, European leaders have encouraged Zelensky to stick to unreasonable goals, set unrealistic expectations, and criticized what progress has occurred. The latest “reassurance force” charade is more of the same, an exercise in fantasy that extends the war rather than ending it.

The United States continues to have significant leverage over Europe, and the Trump administration should not be afraid to use it to keep Brussels from scuttling future diplomacy. Trump should communicate to his European counterparts that meddling in ongoing talks is unwelcome and will come with consequences for the transatlantic relationship. At the same time, he can engage with Europe at a later point on how they can support Ukraine after an agreement is reached.

With his military forces advancing on the battlefield, Putin is unlikely to stop fighting in the immediate term. Still, he seems ready to at least think about the end of the war and to talk about the terms of a settlement. If Trump is serious about achieving peace, he shouldn’t let this window of opportunity pass.

https://natyliesbaldwin.com/2025/09/rus ... -ninefold/

Scott Horton & John Weeks: Blitzkrieg Blowback: Nazi Warlord Primed To Lead Post-War Ukraine
September 16, 2025
By Scott Horton & John Weeks, Antiwar.com, 9/1/25

On February 19, 2021, almost exactly one year before Russia would invade Ukraine, President Joe Biden addressed the Virtual Munich Security Conference. He said:

“We’re at an inflection point between those who argue that, given all the challenges we face — from the fourth industrial revolution to a global pandemic — that autocracy is the best way forward, they argue, and those who understand that democracy is essential — essential to meeting those challenges.”

The struggle between democracy and autocracy became a central theme and talking point of the administration, with Biden repeatedly extolling the United States as the “arsenal of democracy.”

On February 24, 2022, when Russia escalated its conflict with Ukraine (which began in 2014) by rolling more than 100,000 troops into the country, their president, Vladimir Putin, said:

“The purpose of this operation is to protect people who, for eight years now, have been facing humiliation and genocide perpetrated by the Kiev regime. To this end, we will seek to demilitarize and denazify Ukraine, as well as bring to trial those who perpetrated numerous bloody crimes against civilians, including against citizens of the Russian Federation.”

Now, after more than three years of war, during which time DC has backed Ukraine with hundreds of billions of dollars, sophisticated weapons, intelligence sharing, targeting assistance and a parallel economic war on Russia, and Russia has inflicted hundreds of thousands Ukrainian casualties, an autocratic Nazi is poised to become the next president (or fascist dictator) of Ukraine.

Andriy Biletsky was imprisoned in a Ukrainian jail as the “Revolution of Dignity” (aka the Western-backed Maidan Coup) played out on the streets of Kiev in late 2013 and early 2014.

Biletsky, a partisan of “Social Nationalism” and “all the ancient Ukrainian Aryan values,” was accused of participating in a terrorist plot to blow up a statue of Vladimir Lenin in Boryspil.

On February 21, 2014, Ukrainian President Victor Yanukovych fled the country, on February 22 his government collapsed and on February 24 a new coup-interim junta was created under Acting President Oleksandr Turchynov and Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk. One of the new government’s first actions, that very day, was to pardon what it called “political prisoners” held by the deposed regime. On February 25, 2014, Biletsky walked out of prison and inherited the coup.

Biletsky founded the Azov Battalion out of his Patriot of Ukraine gang and fellow travelers from Right Sector, the coalition Nazi militia that had accomplished the street putsch weeks before, and quickly established himself as a man willing to lead men into battle against any and all perceived enemies, including Ukrainian civilians. Such enemy civilians immediately presented themselves in Ukraine’s east and south. Anti-coup protestors refused to recognize the new regime’s legitimacy and attempted to assert greater sovereignty for their regions. In response, and on orders from the United States, Kiev launched an “Anti-Terrorist Operation” against the Donbas. Many regular Ukrainian soldiers refused to wage war on their countrymen, with some even defecting to the rebels’ side. Biletsky and Azov, however, plunged into the close quarters, urban combat with alacrity.

Known as “White Leader” or “White Chief” by his men, Biletsky has become the Empire’s new version of a “moderate rebel,” an anti-democratic, Nazi warlord who DC is desperate to spin as a freedom fighter committed to Western values. All the hype in the world cannot change the reality on the ground revealed by his rhetoric and behavior.

In 2007, Biletsky was the leader of Patriot of Ukraine, a direct heir of the Organization of Ukrainian Nationalists (OUN), which was the “institutional epicenter” of Ukrainian collusion with the Nazis during World War II. He gave a speech entitled “Ukrainian Racial Social Nationalism.” In the speech Biletsky declared:

“The historical mission of our Nation, in this turning point, [is to lead] the White peoples of the whole world into the last crusade for its existence against the Semitic-led untermenschen.”

He argued that Ukrainian nation must become “a single biological organism that will consist of New People – physically, intellectually and spiritually developed persons. From the mass of individuals should appear Nation, and from the weak modern man – the Superman. Social-Nationalism relies on a number of fundamental principles that clearly distinguish it from other right-wing movements. This is a kind of triad: sociality, Racial, Great power.”

This kind of rhetoric could get an American citizen put in time out on X, or a Western European time in the penitentiary, but Biletsky has become a darling of Western governments and weapons manufacturers. He recruits young militants, neo-Nazis and men of the very-far right from across Europe. He baptized his new battalion with fire and blood in the eastern city of Mariupol, killing dissidents and seizing the city from pro-Russian forces in June 2014. In August, 2014, Biletsky was promoted to lieutenant colonel of police. In September, Azov was made an official regiment of the National Guard and Biletsky was promoted to commander.

Ten years later and Azov currently has two sections, the “The 12th Special Forces Brigade Azov” within the National Guard and “The Third Army Corps,” which Biletsky leads. The Third Army Corps has seen extensive combat and is responsible for holding down approximately 10 percent of the frontline. Biletsky, Grégory Priolon writes for Intelligence Online, “now appears in Azov’s communications without official uniform or insignia, but with a visual consistency that establishes his role: that of a warlord turned symbol.”

Judging by recent attempts to rehabilitate this Nazi and his friends in the London Times, and other outlets, it is clear that Biletsky has political ambitions beyond military service after the war.

Azov has embraced the role of ideological actor and political force within Ukrainian society. Given its popularity and its killing power, it probably has two options to take control of the central government: elections or a bloody coup.

Regardless of whether Ukraine’s war with Russia ends soon or grinds on, having a Nazi ascend to power in Ukraine would be humiliating (and possibly dangerous) for America and absolutely intolerable for Russia. It could provoke them to restart or expand the war to conquer or simply crush the entire nation. As is typical of government, DC and Moscow’s interventions have created massive problems that will in time be invoked to justify more interventions for years to come.

On the other hand, the other day some assassin just ran up on Biletsky’s Svoboda Party counterpart Andriy Parubiy and put the dirty s.o.b. right out of his misery.

Sometimes these things do have a way of taking care of themselves.

https://natyliesbaldwin.com/2025/09/sco ... r-ukraine/

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Interpreting Zelensky’s Shifting Goalposts For Victory
Andrew Korybko
Sep 16, 2025

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He finally accepts the impossibility of restoring Ukraine’s pre-2014 borders.

Zelensky recently told ABC News that “Victory, to my mind, Putin's goal is to occupy Ukraine, this is to destroy us, occupy, and did he occupy it?...He didn't occupy us, we win, and I think so, because we have our country.” This is a far cry from the mantra that he’s chanted almost daily for the past 3,5 years since the special operation began about restoring his country’s pre-2014 borders. Quite clearly, he’s hinting that he’ll accept an end to the conflict that doesn’t achieve that aim, thus going with the political flow.

About that, while Trump might escalate US involvement for the purpose of coercing Putin into freezing the conflict without obtaining any of his stated goals therein, he doesn’t have any illusions about Ukraine restoring its pre-2014 borders. The same goes for if he tries to make a direct NATO intervention there, whether before or after hostilities cease and regardless of whether it precedes a no-fly zone, a fait accompli. Zelensky is aware of this and doesn’t want to risk Trump’s wrath by demanding the impossible.

Accordingly, he’s now begun the task of correcting domestic and Western perceptions of victory, ergo why he’s now shifting the goalposts by claiming that this has been achieved just by ending the conflict without Russia occupying all of Ukraine. The problem is that Russia never intended to occupy all of Ukraine. This is proven by it never even trying to take Odessa, not to mention making no moves whatsoever on Western Ukraine, with Kiev’s environs being the furthest west that Russia ever went.

To be sure, some of its supporters have fantasized that Russia’s goal is to occupy all of Ukraine up to the Polish border, but this has always been wishful thinking and never a reflection of Russia’s stated goals or even its implied ones as proven by the course of military operations. By spinning this baseless speculation as strategic fact, which inadvertently highlights the curious narrative convergence between some of Russia’s and Ukraine’s supporters, Zelensky hopes to settle for less without “losing face”.

He's motivated not only by concerns about his legacy, but also by fear of an ultra-nationalist (fascist) revolt from segments of civil society and the armed forces in the event that he accepts indefinite Russian control over Ukrainian-claimed territories as part of a peace deal. The irony is that Ukraine would have retained the parts of Kherson and Zaporozhye Regions presently under Russian control had Zelensky accepted the terms of spring 2022’s draft peace treaty that the UK and Poland conspired to sabotage.

The precedent established by the epic failure of summer 2023’s counteroffensive, which was prepared for over a year and followed the influx of tens of billions of dollars of military equipment into Ukraine that the West no longer has to spare, suggests that Zelensky won’t claw anything back no matter what . The conflict will thus end with Russia at the very least keeping the lands that it won in those two regions, if not expanding its gains (whether there and/or elsewhere) depending on how everything soon evolves.

Circling back to Zelensky shifting the goalposts for victory, the significance is therefore that he’s truly willing to freeze the conflict along the frontlines at minimum, with the possibility existing that he might even agree to withdraw from the rest of Donbass if Trump orders him to as part of a deal with Putin. That can’t be taken for granted, however, since he thus far hasn’t pressured him on anything so far. In any case, the military-political dynamics continue to favor Russia, and Zelensky has finally accepted this.

https://korybko.substack.com/p/interpre ... -goalposts

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Despite Recent “Pin the Tail on the European Donkey” Moves, Trump Unlikely to Escape Accusation of Losing Ukraine War
Posted on September 15, 2025 by Yves Smith

Yours truly must confess to not writing regularly of late about the Ukraine war because there’s been a dearth of big new developments. The pattern for some time has been of of Ukraine and the European Commission, and most NATO members trying what are repeats of failed/rejected strategies vis-a-vis Russia to keep the conflict going while pretending that they are consistent with a peace deal. So we see, for instance, everything from a pointless 19th European sanctions package to endless variants of peacekeeping and reassurance forces to continued scheming about how to seize frozen Russian assets (fiercely resisted by Euroclear) to demands that the US back long-distance missile strikes into Russia and keep supplying weapons despite not being able to produce remotely enough for Ukraine, let alone its many other demands.

Some high-profile members of the Ukraine-skeptic commentary community are giving thumb’s up to Trump apparently having scored a win against the Ukraine hawks and Europeans. As we’ll explain, as much as Trump might indeed have successfully slipped a noose, this gambit in no way solves Trump’s much bigger problem, that he will still be The President Who Lost Ukraine. And his own messaging will be partly to blame.

Admittedly, Trump has come up with a solid basis for rejecting the Senator Linsey Graham demand, loudly cheered by the pro-war faction in the EU, for “bone-crunching” US secondary sanctions against buyers of Russian energy like China, India, and if one is being consistent, Turkiye and Europe, among others. Trump was all in for imposing an additional 25% tariffs against India over the 25% already imposed until they backfired. Even the not-well-reported fact that the additional 25% tariffs were limited in the number of included products still had an impact on India, with the domestic press highlighting the damage and the rupee falling to an all-time low against the greenback. And that’s before getting to the fury of the betrayal after the Biden Administration had pressed India to buy Russian oil to keep market prices from rising and Trump had acted as if he were a friend of India.

But as we have pointed out, Trump looked to be cornered by Graham, who said he has over 80 votes for sanctions. Whether the House would fall in line and also provide enough votes to override a veto (were Trump to go that route) is an open question. But 80 votes is also enough to impeach Trump if the House were to impeach Trump and send the motion to the Senate for trial.

Recall that Trump first gave Putin a 50 day deadline to agree to a ceasefire or be subjected to the sanctions.1 Russia did not moderate its prosecution of the war. Trump moved the deadline up to 10 to 12 days, which looked likely to confirm US impotence. Trump then in an effort to try to do….who knows what,2 but ultimately buy himself more room for maneuver. We did not write up the summit because we deemed the coverage at the time to be overheated, as if Putin briefly demonstrating on national television that he did not have hooves and horns would make a difference. We probably should have thrown down a marker, that this meeting would do absolutely nothing to solve the problem that there was no bargaining overlap between Russia’s relentlessly-stated position and what the Collective West is prepared to accept.

Even though Alaska session did produce one outcome, that Trump accepted the Russian rejection of a ceasefire, that inching towards the Russian view makes no practical difference in terms of progress towards a peaceful resolution. Zelensky is not backing down. The Europeans tried breathing new life into their corpse of mustering forces and finding a pretext to get them installed in Ukraine, under the pretense of peacekeeping.

And critically, Trump kept up belligerent noises after the summit. From Newsweek:

Trump has since proceeded to host Putin at Joint Base Elmendorf-Richardson in Anchorage on August 15. After a three-hour meeting, though, no new sanctions were announced and the Russian president has not formally agreed to a ceasefire.

But Russia’s continuing barrage of drones, cruise and ballistic missiles exemplified the lack of momentum of U.S. peace efforts and the original 50-day deadline has expired without the breakthrough Trump had hoped for…

A White House official referred Newsweek on Tuesday to comments Trump had made on August 25 that Russia could face substantial consequences, stressing that the war needs to end.

“It will be an economic war that will be bad for Russia, and he doesn’t want that. As he stated, he will know in the coming weeks what he is going to do,” the White House said, noting Trump’s previous comments that this could consist of “massive sanctions or massive tariffs or both.”

And from BBC a week ago:

Donald Trump has threatened tougher sanctions against Russia after its heaviest aerial bombardment on Ukraine since the war began…

Kremlin’s spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Monday that no sanctions would ever be able to force Russia to “change the consistent position that our president has repeatedly spoken about”….

Speaking to reporters after the bombardment, the US president said he was “not happy with the whole situation.”

Trump has previously threatened harsher measures against Russia, but not taken any action when Putin ignored his deadlines and threats of sanctions.

Asked on on Sunday if he was prepared to move to the “second phase” of punishing Moscow, Trump replied: “Yeah, I am,” though gave no details.

The threat follows remarks from US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who said Washington was prepared to escalate economic pressure but needed stronger European backing.

In an interview with NBC, Bessent said that, if EU nations increased sanctions and secondary tariffs on countries which buy Russian oil, “the Russian economy will be in total collapse, and that will bring President Putin to the table”.

He added: “We are in a race now between how long can the Ukrainian military hold up, versus how long can the Russian economy hold up.”

With that background, let’s look at the latest development, that Trump appears to have found a way out of the pressure to impose secondary sanctions on more countries that buy energy from Russia by saying NATO members need to join, otherwise they won’t be effective:

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It is surprising that some commentators do not get that the whole point of this gambit is that NATO members can’t go along without destroying their economies, and hence would not, getting Trump off the hook:

Trump wants the EU to stop buying Russian oil, pointing at Turkey as well.

He seems to ignore that EU imports of oil have been slashed since March 2023 and even the remaining drizzle has diminished since.

And Turkey is an American ally in NATO, but not in the EU. pic.twitter.com/vxu6EZURlc

— René Duba (@ReneDuba) September 15, 2025

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Now let’s turn to commentary, first from Simplicius in Trump Finally Outwits Europe and the Neocons on Ukraine?:

Trump appears to have fairly cunningly outplayed Europe and put the ball into their court by challenging Europeans to put their money where their mouth is…

Translation: “I will put sanctions on Russia as soon as you guys do something I know is impossible to do.”

Trump has backed Europe into a zugzwang by conditioning his actions on Europe choosing between two equally fatal positions: if Europe completely cuts its “indirect” purchase of Russian “shadow” oil, as well as tariffs China to hell, it will crash Europe’s already crumbling economy. If Europe refuses to do this, then Trump will continue the status quo of the absolute bare minimum in supporting Ukraine while essentially giving Russia carte blanche to finish Ukraine off—which is equally as politically disastrous to Europe as the first option.

With this move, Trump has managed—for now at least—to extricate himself from the deadlock by out-maneuvering critics and neocons alike who are hereby prevented from pressing Trump on “enabling Russia”. Trump will now have a ready, plausible excuse for them: “Why should we make the effort of such sanctions when Europe refuses to meet us half way? It’s their war, after all.”

Simplicius takes pains to signal that this maneuver might only provide temporary relief and adds:

However, the neocon deep state immediately sprang into action. Speaker Mike Johnson said that sanctions on Russia are “far overdue” and that there is a “big appetite for that in Congress”.

Ever-devious Lindsey Graham went a step farther in trying to force a sanctions package by kitchensinking it into a federal funding bill:

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Everywhere you turn the global deep state clerisy is trying their damndest to raise the temperature on the conflict in portrayal of Russia as some threat from beyond looming over all of civilization.

If you think this move indicates an effort by Trump to extricate himself from Project Ukraine, as opposed to extricate itself from immediate and obvious (as opposed to longer-term) self-sabotage, I have a bridge I’d like to sell you. For instance, see RT on September 13, US to press G7 on seizing frozen Russian assets – Bloomberg:

The US will press its G7 allies to establish a legal framework for seizing frozen Russian state assets and channeling them to Ukraine, Bloomberg has reported, citing sources.

Western nations froze an estimated $300 billion in Russian assets following the escalation of the Ukraine conflict in 2022, some €200 billion of which are held by Brussels-based clearinghouse Euroclear. The funds have generated billions in interest, and the West has been exploring ways to use the revenue to finance Ukraine. While refraining from outright seizure, the G7 last year backed a plan to provide Kiev with $50 billion in loans to be repaid using the profits. The EU pledged $21 billion.

According to a proposal seen by the outlet, Washington will urge the G7 to back measures enabling the outright confiscation of the frozen reserves for transfer to Kiev. Separately, people familiar with the matter told Bloomberg that senior US officials have discussed the idea with their European counterparts.

So Trump is not really moving away from the war, as opposed to avoiding the most stoopid measures to try to advance it. The big problem for him is he is firmly attached to the Ukraine tar baby. The war will be settled on the battlefield, in 18 months at the outside. The direction of travel will be too obvious to cover up for the midterms. For anyone looking at the conflict at a remove, Biden lavishing money on that “bring Russia down” misadventure and stripping the US and its allies bare of weapons stocks did keep Ukraine fighting and limited territorial losses, which is what the press and most observers focused on. And the press was only haltingly starting to become candid about Ukraine’s increasingly desperate condition in the second half of 2024.

By contrast, war-watchers are now providing many indicators of Ukraine’s military collapse becoming more and more imminent, such as extremely thin manning on the front lines and Ukraine’s one solace, its supposed drone prowess, now being outmatched by Russia. John Helmer has pointed out that Russia also has resumed its campaign against Ukraine’s grid, which if the General Staff were given its head, could bring Ukraine to its knees in short order.

And even though correlation is not causation, Ukraine’s defenses will start undeniably coming apart when Trump did not continue the Biden policy of pumping Ukraine full of arms and weapons. Again, not that that would have changed the outcome (charitably assuming the US had the means) but many believe so and more importantly, have been getting the press to promote that notion. And Trump, with his intense need to appear to be the driver of events, kept taking rather than refusing meetings with Zelensky, European leaders, and NATO officials. So he has very much identified himself with the war via his deluded belief that he could settle it, which has resulted in him discussing it frequently and at length, again attaching himself to the conflict.

Many observers, particularly Douglas Macgregor and the Duran duo, have said that Trump needed to repudiate the Ukraine war when he took office or he would own it. And a big reason he does is not simply persistent neocon messaging and effective stoking over time of hatred for Putin and Russia generally. It is that Trump himself has been complicit in the messaging that Ukraine could win. He has repeatedly depicted Russia as suffering unsustainable losses to its military and economy. A few of many examples:

CNBC, August 25: Russia’s economy ‘stinks,’ Trump says, and lower oil prices will stop its war machine

Times of India, August 27: ‘Going to be very bad for Russia…’: Donald Trump warns of ‘economic war’ if Putin doesn’t agree to Ukraine talks; says ‘very serious what I have in mind’

RFE/RL January 25: Trump Says Putin ‘Destroying’ Russia By Failing To Seek Ukraine Peace Deal

Newsweek February 15: Fact Check: Trump Says Russia Has Lost 1.5 Million Troops In Ukraine War

New York Post, August 1: Trump reveals ‘almost 20,000 Russian soldiers died’ in July during Ukraine war

So image-and-legacy-obsessed Trump will indeed rack up a big black mark thanks to failing repudiate the Ukraine war when he took office. But his narcissism runs so deep and he has surrounded himself with so many sycophants that he will likely be able to convince himself otherwise.

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1 Some commentators were promoting the incredible argument that Trump picked that drop dead date so he could attend the big Chinese victory over Japan event if Russia agreed. That would be a fast track to assassination and Trump surely understands that. Depending on whether you counted the day Trump made the demand as part of the 50 days, they expired either on Labor Day or September 2, the first day both houses of Congress were back in session after their summer holiday. September 2 does not seem ideal from a spin-management perspective.

2 Pre-summit messaging was all over the map, with Trump going from presenting himself as intending to strong-arm Putin to sounding almost meek, that he wanted to listen.

https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2025/09 ... e-war.html
"There is great chaos under heaven; the situation is excellent."

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