The Long Ecological Revolution

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Re: The Long Ecological Revolution

Post by blindpig » Wed Aug 27, 2025 2:26 pm

Worldwide, 2.1 billion people still lack safe drinking water
August 26, 2025

Universal access to safe water and sanitation is increasingly out of reach

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In Zambia, a boy scoops water out of a ditch below an outhouse. (© UNICEF/UNI598555/Sampa)

Billions of people around the world still lack access to essential water, sanitation, and hygiene services, putting them at risk of disease and deeper social exclusion.

A new report by the World Health Organization and UNICEF: Progress on Household Drinking Water and Sanitation 2000–2024: special focus on inequalities – launched during World Water Week 2025 – reveals that, while some progress has been made, major gaps persist. People living in low-income countries, fragile contexts, rural communities, children, and minority ethnic and indigenous groups face the greatest disparities.

This update – produced by WHO/UNICEF Joint Monitoring Programme for Water Supply, Sanitation and Hygiene (JMP) – provides new national, regional and global estimates for water, sanitation and hygiene services in households from 2000 until 2024. The report also includes expanded data on menstrual health for 70 countries, revealing challenges that affect women and girls across all income levels.

Key facts from the report

♦ Despite gains since 2015, 1 in 4 – or 2.1 billion people globally – still lack access to safely managed drinking water, including 106 million who drink directly from untreated surface sources.

♦ 3.4 billion people still lack safely managed sanitation, including 354 million who practice open defecation.

♦ 1.7 billion people still lack basic hygiene services at home, including 611 million without access to any facilities.

♦ People in least developed countries are more than twice as likely as people in other countries to lack basic drinking water and sanitation services, and more than three times as likely to lack basic hygiene.

♦ While there have been improvements for people living in rural areas, they still lag behind. Safely managed drinking water coverage rose from 50 per cent to 60 per cent between 2015 and 2024, and basic hygiene coverage from 52 per cent to 71 per cent. In contrast, drinking water and hygiene coverage in urban areas has stagnated.

♦ Data from 70 countries show that while most women and adolescent girls have menstrual materials and a private place to change, many lack sufficient materials to change as often as needed. Adolescent girls aged 15–19 are less likely than adult women to participate in activities during menstruation, such as school, work and social pastimes.

♦ In most countries with available data, women and girls are primarily responsible for water collection, with many in sub-Saharan Africa and Central and Southern Asia spending more than 30 minutes per day collecting water.

♦ As we approach the last five years of the Sustainable Development Goals period, achieving the 2030 targets for ending open defecation and universal access to basic water, sanitation and hygiene services will require acceleration, while universal coverage of safely managed services appears increasingly out of reach.

https://climateandcapitalism.com/2025/0 ... ing-water/

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U.S. and oil producers block a treaty to clean the world of plastic pollution
Originally published: Liberation News on August 18, 2025 by Tina Landis (more by Liberation News) | (Posted Aug 25, 2025)

Landis is the author of the book Climate Solutions Beyond Capitalism.

The fifth session of the UN Plastics Treaty negotiations ended on Aug. 15, once again in a deadlock. Over 100 countries came to the table, with the majority pushing for a binding agreement to cut plastic production, determine when plastics become waste, and limit the toxic chemicals used in plastics. Talks are set to resume at a future date, far beyond the deadline that had been set for an agreement.

As with other UN negotiations, such as the annual COP meetings on climate change, the U.S. and its allied petrostates continue to block any significant progress despite a majority of countries seeing the need to rapidly shift off fossil fuels and their byproducts, such as plastics. Frustration with the process was conveyed by Dennis Clare of Micronesia, who said, “What might have collapsed is not so much the talks but the logic of continuing or concluding them in a forum with dedicated obstructionists.” (Plastic pollution talks fail as negotiators in Geneva reject draft treaties | Plastics | The Guardian)

In 2022, the UN set the goal of establishing a global Plastics Treaty by the end of 2024, recognizing the need to address the plastics pollution crisis through a legally binding agreement. That mark was missed once again with the U.S., along with petrostates like Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates, refusing to make any concessions that would limit production and restrain their ability to profit off of this fossil fuel-driven industry. They instead argued that the focus should solely be on waste management rather than addressing the source of the problem—plastics production itself.

Of the approximately 2,600 participants at the fifth session of the Intergovernmental Negotiating Committee Plastics Treaty negotiations, 234 registrants were fossil fuel and chemical industry lobbyists —up from 221 at the previous session. This blatant interference by the very industries who have caused the environmental crisis calls into question the viability of any honest negotiations occurring through these UN bodies.

Plastics pollution is the second biggest environmental threat
According to the UN, plastic pollution is the second biggest threat to our global environment after climate change. Four hundred million tons of new plastic are produced globally each year with projections estimating a 70% growth in production by 2040. Plastics will take centuries to tens of thousands of years to completely break down, depending on the chemical makeup of the specific plastic. Instead of degrading like other materials, such as metal or glass, it instead breaks down into microscopic particles that are now prevalent everywhere—in the air we breathe, in rain and snow, in the food we eat, the water we drink, and even in human embryos. The toxic chemicals used in plastics act as neurotoxins, cause cancer and birth defects, disrupt our hormones and create infertility.

On top of the health impacts from its breakdown in our environment, the primary location of domestic plastics production is in the “Chemical Coast” of Texas and Louisiana, where a high concentration of industry poisons low-income communities and communities of color.

First created in 1907, plastics weren’t manufactured on a mass scale until after World War II, with 2.2 million tons produced in 1950. The 1970s saw an explosion of single-use plastics with overall production climbing to 407 million tons in 2015. The Coca Cola Corporation is the world’s largest producer of plastic waste, outsourcing this waste problem to every corner of the globe through their products.

Twenty-two tons of plastic waste enters the oceans every minute! Many remote areas and less developed countries don’t have the capacity for comprehensive waste management programs and with the influx of consumer goods—that generally contain plastic—waste ends up being washed into river systems during heavy rains and on to the ocean. Plastic is so prevalent in the products we use that it’s nearly impossible to avoid—from food wrappers and packaging to clothing, vehicles and technology, and nearly every household item—plastics are everywhere. It is predicted that plastics will outweigh fish in our oceans by 2050 if we continue on the current trajectory.

In the 1970s in response to the environmental movement that demanded solutions to waste and pollution, recycling programs were created. Industry pushed recycling as a tactic to diffuse peoples’ valid concerns, but never divulged the significant limitations to recycling plastics. Since the advent of recycling, only 10% of plastics have ever been recycled, partly due to the economic cost of recycling. Also, the unique properties of each plastic polymer used in various products require different processes to recycle, which are often trade secrets, so only the corporation that produced the polymer knows exactly what is in it.

Plastic waste is outsourced to to the global south
Just as the U.S. outsources its greenhouse gas emissions by outsourcing production to the Global South, it also avoids its solid waste problem by diverting it to lower-income countries. In 2018 alone, the U.S. shipped 1.07 million tons of its plastic waste to global south countries that often lack the infrastructure to manage and recycle the waste.

Even when plastics are recycled, they still end up in our environment one way or another. Through one recycling method called “downcycling,” plastics are ground into tiny fibers, which are then used to create other products like clothing, which when washed in our laundries sheds microplastics into our water systems. Thirty-five percent of microplastics in our environment are from synthetic clothing fibers. This downcycling is also limited to only two cycles before the source material is too degraded for use in new products.

Other so-called recycling processes include “advanced recycling” and “chemical recycling,” which are just greenwashing terms for incineration. As of 2020, the greenhouse gases created by plastic production and incineration of plastic waste equaled the emissions of 500 large coal-fired power plants.

So why are we still producing plastics in mass quantities every year? The answer is the profit motive.

Fossil fuel giants see profits from plastics as their ‘plan B‘
Around 6% of annual oil production goes to plastics. So not only do plastics provide low-cost, light-weight packaging and materials, which increases profits of corporations, but they also provide another market for fossil fuels beyond the energy sector. Plastics are seen as a “Plan B” for fossil fuel companies. As their profits are threatened by the transition to renewable energy, plastics production is being ramped up along with lobbying efforts that help to undermine a shift off their toxic products through a binding Plastics Treaty.

But there is another way. First, we need to greatly reduce waste in general and eliminate single-use plastics. Second, we can go back to using refillable glass and metal containers or biodegradable materials.

Sustainable solutions are available, but don’t generate profits for a few
Ninety percent of plastics used today could be made from plant-based materials, such as brown kelp, which degrades within 4 to 6 weeks. Kelp is one of the fastest growing plants on the planet, growing up to one meter per day. And kelp forests have other environmental benefits, such as filtering pollutants from waterways and alleviating nutrient run-off from agricultural fields and wastewater outflows, which reduces the occurrence of toxic algae blooms. Kelp forests also create vital habitat for a myriad of species, increasing biodiversity and reducing ocean acidification.

Through human ingenuity and sharing of research and technologies across borders, as well as an end to the consumer culture pushed onto the world by the West, we could find many truly sustainable solutions to the plastic pollution crisis.

Under capitalism, what is produced, how much is produced, what materials are used and how much waste is created is determined based on what is most profitable for the ruling elite who own these industries. This ruling elite, who benefit from the fossil fuel and plastics industries, will continue to undermine any attempts at environmental protections as they always have throughout the existence of capitalism.

Only through mass movements of the people—that threatened their continued profits—have any protections been won in the past. The U.S., along with the petrostates—which would collapse without the sale of their fossil fuels—will continue to be a barrier to the changes that are needed for a livable future. Only a socialist planned economy and global cooperation can solve the crisis that we are facing and move us to long-term environmental sustainability.

https://mronline.org/2025/08/25/u-s-and ... pollution/

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Extinction by Design: How Liberal Environmentalism Narrates Our Alienation from Nature

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We strip the green paint off the empire’s lies, lay out the hard facts of how capital severs us from the land, turn the whole story on its head with a revolutionary view, and end with a battle plan to break the grip of those who hoard the earth’s food and soil.
By Prince Kapone | Weaponized Information | August 16, 2025

Part I – Extinction of Experience as Class War
The scientists call it a “60% decline in nature connectedness” over two centuries. The Guardian dresses it up in the soft language of “lifestyle change” and “urban distraction.” But let’s strip away the varnish: this is not an accident of modern life. This is class war against the senses, waged by a capitalist system that treats every living thing as raw material for profit and every human being as labor-power to be drained. It is the slow, methodical confiscation of our ability to feel at home in the world that made us. And like all capitalist theft, it is deliberate, organized, and defended by an entire cultural apparatus designed to make you forget what’s been stolen.

The Derby University study confirms what millions already know in their bones: people are being born into cities where the grass is manicured into corporate logos, where the air smells of exhaust instead of rain, and where a child’s only encounter with a bird might be the animated one on a phone screen. The research traces this rupture over 220 years, mapping the erasure of nature words like river and blossom from our books, the shrinking of wildlife in our neighborhoods, and—most damning—the collapse of intergenerational transmission. Parents no longer pass down the knowledge, habits, and affections that once made engagement with the natural world as natural as breathing.

Under capitalism, this “extinction of experience” is not a bug—it’s a feature. The less we feel part of the living world, the easier it is for capital to pave it over, commodify it, and sell it back to us in the form of wellness retreats and nature documentaries. Marx understood this metabolic rift: that capitalism severs the organic interchange between human beings and the rest of nature, not because it is irrational, but because it is ruthlessly rational—from the standpoint of profit. Kohei Saito calls it the unfinished critique of political economy: to grasp that ecological collapse is not just a byproduct of capitalism, but its structural necessity.

And so the baseline drops. As John Bellamy Foster has shown, the ruling class adapts to ecological crisis by redefining it as a technical problem, solvable by market tweaks and “green growth” schemes. The Guardian article offers a gentler version of the same: schoolyard greening projects, urban parks, and “30% more green space” as balm for a century of alienation. But the Derby model says otherwise: we’d need cities ten times greener just to reverse the trend. In capitalist terms, that’s heresy—because it would mean reconfiguring land use, production, and ownership in ways that put human and ecological well-being before profit.

The ruling class won’t do it. But others have. Cuba’s post-Soviet “special period” saw a collapse in imported oil and fertilizers, forcing the turn to agroecology, urban gardens, and community food sovereignty. China’s policy of “ecological civilization” recognizes—at least in principle—that you cannot endlessly degrade the biosphere without undermining social stability. These are not utopias. They are contested, imperfect, and contradictory. But they show that the metabolic rift can be narrowed when the political will exists to subordinate private profit to collective survival.

In the imperial core, however, the logic runs the other way. The fewer people who walk barefoot in the soil, the fewer who recognize a bird’s call, the easier it is to sell the lie that nature is “out there” somewhere—external, exploitable, and ultimately expendable. What The Guardian calls “declining connectedness” is in fact the ideological groundwork for permanent ecological austerity. And unless we call it what it is—a conscious program of alienation rooted in the political economy of capitalism—any talk of “reconnection” will be just another product on the shelf.

Part II – The Political Economy of Disconnection
The polite story is that we’ve drifted from nature because of “modern distractions” — screens, commutes, busy schedules. The truth is uglier: our disconnection is the planned outcome of a political economy that treats the living world as a commodity frontier, not a commons. It’s not a glitch that urban residents spend barely four minutes and thirty-six seconds a day in natural spaces — a figure confirmed by researchers from the University of Derby in The Guardian.

Capitalism has no incentive to preserve a population’s ecological literacy. In fact, as the theory of the “metabolic rift” in global political economy makes clear — that capitalism severs nutrient and knowledge cycles between people and the land — the system benefits from replacing ecosystem fluency with brand fluency. This concept is defined in the accessible Monthly Review article on Marx’s ecological insights on the metabolic rift.

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Environmental sociology confirms that disconnection from nature among urban populations is structural, not accidental — woven into how our cities are built and governed. Studies show that spending just 120 minutes a week in natural environments significantly boosts well-being, an insight that underscores how deeply we’ve lost connection with everyday access to nature via the protected organizational time-in-nature study.

This is why the Guardian’s suggestion of “30% more urban green space” feels like a corporate brochure. According to the Derby model, reversing disconnection would require cities to be ten times greener “we’d need cities ten times greener”. That’s not a tweak — that’s a direct attack on real estate capital, infrastructure monopolies, and the fossil-fuel economy.

Examples from socialist and post-colonial worlds show what true transformation demands. Cuba’s urban agriculture revolution of the 1990s turned vacant lots into agroecological production zones, vastly boosting local fresh produce access — documented in FAO reports by the FAO — and urban gardens produced up to 50% of Havana’s fresh produce according to US News.

Likewise, China’s ecological civilization policy integrates environmental restoration, biodiversity, and carbon targets into national planning — a sovereign vision that ties ecological health to social stability, clearly explained in an accessible paper on China’s strategy via ADB’s ecological civilization report.

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In the capitalist core, however, the solutions on offer amount to biospheric austerity: privatized parks, “green” condos, or token corporate sponsorships of community gardens—branding nature as lifestyle, not belonging. Critical research exposes how neoliberal “green” policy turns ecological crises into fresh accumulation opportunities, rather than restoring connection in the critique of market environmentalism.

To restore genuine connection at the scale science demands would mean contesting capital’s control over land, labor, and life. The political economy of land use — which links our alienation from nature inseparably to our alienation from one another — is the terrain of this struggle. Accessible research on ecological civilization and urban land governance makes this clear via the political economy of land use analysis. Thus, forest-school nurseries to urban food sovereignty are questions of class power. Land either serves life — or it serves capital. There is no middle ground between extinction and survival.

Part III – Alienation as a Colonial Invention
If the first fact is that people are severed from the land, and the second is that capitalism requires this severance, then the third is that alienation itself was engineered as a weapon of empire. The Guardian’s data on a 60% decline in nature connectedness over two centuries does not mark a slow cultural drift — it measures the long arc of deliberate dispossession. This arc begins not in the shopping malls and screen addictions of the late 20th century, but in the enclosures, plantations, and genocides that made modern capitalism possible.

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From the 16th century onward, European colonialism imposed an extractive land regime that criminalized subsistence, privatized commons, and redefined human beings as labor inputs. In Britain, the enclosure of common land drove peasants off ancestral soil; in the Americas and the Caribbean, plantations converted biodiverse landscapes into single-crop factories worked by enslaved Africans; in settler colonies like Australia, entire Indigenous ecologies were bulldozed to make way for sheep and wheat. Disconnection from the land was not a byproduct — it was the precondition for capitalist accumulation.

This is why the loss of “nature words” from books, noted in the Guardian study, carries a deeper meaning. Colonial-capitalist rule always seeks to erase the vocabulary of resistance — to strip the imagination of the terms in which life outside the market can be envisioned. As environmental historian William Cronon has shown, even the concept of “wilderness” was reframed by empire: once the home of Indigenous nations, it became in European eyes a raw commodity frontier or a tourist spectacle in his essay “The Trouble with Wilderness”. Language was remade to fit the ledger.

Under industrial capitalism, this alienation was rationalized as “progress.” In the 19th century, positivist science and imperial geography turned landscapes into data points, soil fertility into yield per acre, and rivers into shipping lanes. By the 20th, advertising and consumer culture had recoded the very meaning of the natural world — not as a living community to which humans belong, but as scenery, lifestyle branding, or a resource to be “managed.” These ideological shifts were not neutral; they disciplined entire populations into accepting ecological collapse as normal and inevitable.

Today, technofascism refines this tradition. Greenwashing and “net zero” pledges function as ideological counterinsurgency, pre-empting radical ecological demands by rebranding the status quo as sustainable. Nature is fed into predictive algorithms, its “services” priced and traded, while the working class is told that personal lifestyle changes are the frontline of the climate fight. This is the political economy of alienation in its most advanced form: the ruling class manufactures disconnection, then sells it back as connection.

Understanding alienation as a colonial invention forces a different conclusion. Reconnecting with nature is not simply a matter of planting more trees in cities or running school trips to the countryside. It is a matter of decolonizing land, abolishing property relations that turn ecosystems into commodities, and dismantling the ideological machinery that teaches us to see the Earth through a profit lens. Only then can the “extinction of experience” documented by the Guardian be reversed — not by nostalgia for a lost rural idyll, but by revolutionary transformation of our relationship to the land.

Part IV – Revolutionary Ecology in Practice
If the first three parts have tracked the disease — capitalist alienation from the land, deepened by the colonial contradiction — then here we turn to those rare and vital experiments where the patient was treated not with palliative reforms, but with structural surgery. We’re not talking about “green cities” built to make gentrifiers feel virtuous, or corporate tree-planting schemes calibrated to the quarterly report. We’re talking about revolutionary states and movements that reorganized production, land, and urban life so thoroughly that the metabolic rift itself began to close.

Look at Cuba in the 1990s. When the Soviet Union collapsed and U.S. imperialism tightened the blockade, the island lost over 80% of its food and fuel imports. Capitalism’s prescription would have been mass starvation, IMF shock therapy, and foreign agribusiness carving up the countryside. Instead, Cuba turned to urban agriculture on a national scale, transforming vacant lots and rooftops into organic farms, integrating food production into schools and workplaces, and drastically reducing chemical inputs. Within a decade, Havana had over 8,000 urban farms, producing hundreds of thousands of tons of fresh produce locally and covering more than 35,000 hectares of cultivation.

Or take China’s “Ecological Civilization” framework. Whatever contradictions and capitalist encroachments the Chinese model contains, it has made massive state-directed investments in ecological restoration. China mobilized large-scale ecosystem recovery across varied terrains — from mountains to coastal estuaries — through government-led programs like the Shan-Shui initiative that blend traditional practice with modern science.

Even at the municipal level, socialist-oriented governments have proven the point. In Kerala, India, the People’s Plan Campaign devolved planning power to local councils, expanded public food distribution, and embedded agricultural revival into a broader political project of social welfare. This is what it means to think beyond the charity model of “connecting kids to nature” — it’s the deliberate political construction of a society in which human survival is inseparable from ecological health.

These examples are not perfect, and they are not immune to capitalist pressures. But they are proof that when power shifts from capital to the organized people — when the logic of accumulation is replaced by the logic of survival — the so-called “inevitable” extinction of experience can be reversed. That’s the lesson imperialism fears most: not that humans can reconnect with nature in a personal, apolitical way, but that such reconnection is the by-product of dismantling the social order that alienated us in the first place.

Part V – Cities as Battlefields of the Metabolic Rift
Urban space is not neutral. It is designed, policed, and commodified to serve the ruling class. The concrete and steel that stretch across the skyline are not mere symbols of “progress” — they are the physical manifestation of capitalist priorities, where land is a speculative asset, housing is a commodity, and public space is an afterthought or a luxury. The same system that drains wetlands to build luxury condos will spend millions on artificial “green walls” to soften the blow of its own ecological vandalism. The result is cities that alienate their inhabitants from the natural world while locking them into dependence on corporate-controlled infrastructure.

This alienation is not accidental; it is an instrument of class power. As David Harvey has shown in his analysis of the right to the city, urban design is a mode of capital accumulation. Gentrification displaces working-class communities from neighborhoods with parks and mature tree cover, pushing them into heat islands with no shade, polluted air, and little access to fresh food. Public green space becomes a tool of exclusion, fenced off behind paywalls or redesigned to attract tourists and investors rather than serve local needs. Meanwhile, policing is deployed to keep the poor “in their place,” making even the act of being in a park or by the water a criminalized risk for marginalized youth.

The ecological dimension of this urban warfare is often hidden. Studies consistently show that low-income and racially oppressed communities suffer from higher environmental burdens and lower access to green space, contributing to poorer health outcomes, higher rates of mental illness, and increased vulnerability to climate shocks. The ruling class may mouth platitudes about “resilience” and “sustainability,” but their urban policies ensure that resilience is privatized and sold to those who can pay, while the rest are left to bear the brunt of ecological breakdown.

Revolutionary urbanism flips this script. In Havana, the transformation of empty lots into food-producing gardens was not simply about growing vegetables — it was about reclaiming land from the speculative market, turning it into a commons governed by the people who live there. In Caracas, communal councils have fought to integrate urban agriculture and public services into socialist planning, breaking down the divide between “city” and “countryside.” In both cases, the city is not treated as an ecological dead zone but as a living part of the biosphere — and its working-class residents are positioned as stewards rather than passive consumers of their environment.

For the urban working class in the imperial core, this lesson is critical. The fight for housing, public transit, and climate adaptation is inseparable from the fight for green space, clean air, and collective control over land use. Demands for urban rewilding, free public gardens, and community-owned renewable energy are not fringe “environmentalist” causes — they are class demands, direct challenges to the capitalist order of the city. In this sense, the battle to close the metabolic rift runs straight through the heart of the metropolis, and victory there will depend on our ability to turn every park, vacant lot, and rooftop into a node of collective survival.

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Part VI – Soil, Seeds, and Sovereignty
The ruling class likes to pretend that food comes from the supermarket. By severing the visible link between the soil and the plate, capitalism turns the most basic human necessity into a commodity mediated entirely by corporations. The global food system, dominated by a handful of agribusiness giants, is designed to extract profit at every stage — from patented seeds to chemical inputs, from fossil-fuel-based transport to retail. In this system, the land is stripped for yield, monocultures replace biodiverse ecosystems, and rural communities are reduced to low-wage labor pools or pushed into urban slums. The result is a planetary agriculture that feeds capital while starving the earth, and increasingly, its people.

This alienation from food production is as political as it is ecological. Imperialist agriculture functions through dependency: the colonized world is locked into exporting cash crops for foreign markets, while the imperial core imports cheap food grown under super-exploitative conditions. When countries resist — when they attempt to protect small farmers, promote local food sovereignty, or reject genetically modified seed monopolies — they face economic sanctions, trade blackmail, and, in some cases, outright regime change. Food becomes both a weapon and a bargaining chip in the arsenal of hyper-imperialism.

Revolutionary movements have long understood that liberation requires control over the means of subsistence. In Cuba, the collapse of Soviet trade in the 1990s forced a radical restructuring of agriculture. The country turned to agroecology — organic inputs, urban gardens, and decentralized production — not just to survive the U.S. blockade but to create a system less vulnerable to the fluctuations of global capital. In Venezuela, the Bolivarian process sought to expand communal control over farmland, providing seeds and technical assistance to local producers to reduce dependency on imports. In both cases, food production was reframed as a collective right and responsibility, inseparable from national sovereignty.

The stakes are even higher in the era of climate breakdown. Droughts, floods, and soil degradation are eroding the stability of industrial agriculture. Meanwhile, multinational agribusiness pushes “climate-smart” solutions that deepen dependency: drought-resistant GMO seeds controlled by patents, carbon offset schemes that enclose more land for private profit, and digital surveillance of farmers’ practices through proprietary platforms. The language is green, but the logic is colonial. Critics note that climate-smart agriculture serves corporate control, reinforcing concentration of power and farmers’ dependency.

Against this, food sovereignty offers not just an ecological alternative but a revolutionary horizon. It means reclaiming the seed commons from corporate control, protecting and regenerating soil health, and integrating agriculture into the cultural and political life of communities. It is about producing food for people, not profit; about linking rural producers and urban consumers in direct solidarity; about building systems resilient to both market shocks and climate chaos. In a socialist framework, this is not a romantic return to the past — it is a conscious reweaving of the human–nature metabolism on terms that serve the needs of the working class and the planet.

The lesson is clear: without sovereignty over our soil and seeds, there can be no sovereignty at all. And without breaking the imperialist food regime, the metabolic rift will only deepen. The path forward demands that we see every farm, every seed bank, and every community garden as a front in the class struggle — as vital to the liberation of humanity as any picket line or barricade.

Part VII – Ecological Civilization as Revolutionary Governance
If the capitalist world order has mastered anything, it is the art of giving the illusion of environmental care while continuing ecological plunder. In the imperial core, “green transition” often means a new round of resource grabs in the Global South — lithium from Bolivia, cobalt from the Congo, rare earths from Myanmar — all wrapped in the rhetoric of “net zero.” These policies do not challenge the logic of accumulation; they simply repaint the machine. The question for revolutionary forces is not how to green capitalism, but how to build an economy where the health of ecosystems is a governing principle, not an afterthought.

China’s framework of ecological civilization offers one such approach — not as a finished model, but as a live experiment in integrating environmental goals into the core of socialist planning. Enshrined in the constitution, the concept recognizes that economic development and ecological health must be coordinated, and that large-scale public investment in reforestation, pollution control, and renewable infrastructure is a matter of public necessity, not market discretion. By mobilizing state capacity for programs like the Grain-for-Green Program — converting degraded farmland back into forest and grassland — China has demonstrated that rapid, large-scale ecological restoration is possible when profit is not the ultimate arbiter.

Vietnam, with its socialist-oriented market reforms (Đổi Mới), has pursued a parallel path on a smaller scale, using land reforms and environmental restoration to adjust rural livelihoods and restore ecosystems, especially in coastal zones through mangrove restoration.

In the Indian state of Kerala, the Left-led government’s people’s planning campaign has linked environmental protection to participatory budgeting, ensuring that local councils have direct say over water conservation, waste management, and biodiversity initiatives. These are not simply “green policies”; they are efforts to embed ecological repair into the very mechanisms of governance, breaking from the capitalist assumption that environmental health must be subordinate to GDP growth.

Across Latin America, Indigenous-led movements have pushed the concept of buen vivir — “living well” — into national constitutions in Bolivia and Ecuador, redefining development around community well-being and ecological balance rather than extraction and accumulation through legal reforms and Rights of Nature recognition. Though constrained by the pressures of global capital, these principles have inspired tangible policy: community forestry, legal rights for rivers and forests, and the rejection of certain mega-mining projects.

In Africa, countries like Burkina Faso and Ethiopia have undertaken massive reforestation drives that, while not socialist in orientation, still illustrate how public mobilization around ecological goals can yield measurable results when tied to national development agendas.

What unites these diverse examples is not a single blueprint, but a shared refusal to accept the capitalist trade-off between ecology and economy. They show that large-scale ecological transformation is not a utopian dream; it is a question of political will, social ownership, and mass participation. Where capitalism treats nature as an externality to be managed, these experiments treat it as a foundation to be restored and sustained.

For the revolutionary movement, the lesson is strategic: ecological civilization cannot be a technocratic add-on. It must be a central line of struggle, a concrete expression of sovereignty and class power. In the Global South, it means breaking dependency on imperialist trade systems that demand ecological sacrifice. In the imperial core, it means dismantling the corporate stranglehold over energy, agriculture, and infrastructure, and reorienting production toward the restoration of the human–nature metabolism. Without this reorientation, “green” will remain just another color in the imperialist flag.

Part VIII – Cities as Commons: Urban Ecology for Proletarian Survival
Capitalist urbanization is a machine for severing people from the land. It concentrates labor where capital wants it, alienates us from food, water, and green space, and leaves the working class dependent on corporate supply chains and imported commodities. In this design, cities are not meant to feed themselves; they are meant to consume — endlessly, hungrily — until both the hinterlands and their own inhabitants are exhausted. The result is a double dependency: the urban proletariat depends on capital for survival, and capital depends on the extraction of resources from distant territories, often through imperialist plunder.

Yet the city can be repurposed. When socialist planning and popular mobilization take the urban terrain seriously, it becomes possible to turn cities into living ecosystems that sustain their people. The Cuban experience after the collapse of the Soviet Union remains one of the clearest proofs. Faced with the loss of 80% of its imports, including food and fuel, Cuba launched a nationwide experiment in organopónicos — intensive organic gardens embedded in urban neighborhoods. By mobilizing workers, students, retirees, and local committees, Havana alone produced enough vegetables to meet a significant share of its residents’ needs, without relying on chemical fertilizers or long-distance transport. This was not just agriculture; it was sovereignty, grown in the cracks of the imperial blockade.

Research from Urban Food Production for Ecosocialism confirms what Cuba demonstrated: urban agriculture under public or community control shortens supply chains, reduces dependence on fossil fuels, strengthens food security, and builds social solidarity. In cities from Rosario, Argentina to Dar es Salaam, Tanzania, municipal support for community gardens, rooftop farms, and green corridors has improved nutrition, created local jobs, and restored degraded spaces. These are not boutique projects for the middle class; they are working-class infrastructure, especially when tied to broader housing, transport, and public health systems.

Vietnam’s peri-urban aquaculture systems, integrating rice paddies, fish ponds, and vegetable plots, offer another model. In Kerala, India, local self-governments have invested in urban farming cooperatives that reclaim vacant lots and rooftops for food production, guided by participatory planning. In Nairobi’s informal settlements, vertical sack gardens have allowed families to produce greens even where land is scarce, cutting food costs and improving diets. In all these cases, the practice of producing food where people live is more than an environmental gesture; it is a form of class resilience, reducing the grip of corporate agribusiness and imperialist trade dependency.

Urban greening must also confront the contradiction of gentrification. Under capitalism, green space in working-class neighborhoods often triggers displacement, as property developers and landlords see rising value. Ecosocialist urbanism demands that the benefits of ecological restoration — cleaner air, shade, cooler microclimates, food gardens — be socially owned and democratically managed, insulating them from market speculation. In this sense, the fight for the urban commons is inseparable from the fight against landlordism and speculative capital.

Turning cities into commons is not romanticism; it is strategic necessity. In the coming decades of climate instability, urban populations — especially in the Global South — will face increasing pressure from heatwaves, food price shocks, and supply disruptions. The choice is stark: allow corporate capital to manage this crisis for profit, or reclaim the means of urban survival through collective control of land, water, and green infrastructure. The examples already exist. They only need to be scaled, defended, and embedded within the broader revolutionary transformation of society.

Part IX – Healing the Rift: Political Economy of Ecological Reconnection
Marx called it the metabolic rift — the rupture in the nutrient and energy cycles between humans and the rest of nature, ripped open by capitalist production. Under the old agrarian systems, nutrients extracted from the soil by crops would return via manure and organic waste. Capitalism broke this cycle, turning the countryside into an extraction zone and the city into a sink of waste. Food, fiber, and fuel flowed in one direction, but the metabolic balance never flowed back. The soil in the colonies was stripped to exhaustion, and the working-class districts of the industrial cities rotted in filth, their refuse dumped into rivers or seas rather than returned to the land.

Today, this rift is planetary. Global commodity chains push monoculture agriculture to the edges of tropical forests, leach soils with chemical inputs, and displace rural populations into megacities. The nutrients and energy embedded in their production do not return to their source — they pile up as waste or pollution in overbuilt urban centers, while the soils that fed them become barren. This is not an ecological accident; it is the logic of capital accumulation, which thrives on linear throughput rather than circular renewal.

Ecosocialist reconstruction begins with closing this rift — not with nostalgic fantasies about “returning to the land,” but with deliberate, planned reconnection of the metabolic cycles between city and countryside. In Marx’s Ecology, John Bellamy Foster demonstrates how Marx saw this not as a technical glitch but as a class and property relation: as long as land and labor remain subordinated to capital, the rift widens. Healing it requires the abolition of capitalist property in both agriculture and industry.

The most successful attempts so far have come from societies that broke with capitalist agribusiness and placed land under collective or state control. Cuba’s post-Special Period transition integrated urban food production with rural organic farming, recycling urban organic waste back into peri-urban farms. In China’s “ecological civilization” framework, municipal waste treatment plants have been adapted to recover nutrients for agricultural use, though the depth of this transformation is uneven and contested. In Kerala’s decentralized planning, cooperatives link local markets with small-scale producers, reducing the metabolic distance between production and consumption.

Even under hostile conditions, movements are experimenting. The MST in Brazil has developed agroecological settlements that integrate composting, biogas, and diversified cropping, directly countering the soil depletion of agribusiness soy monocultures. In Zimbabwe, farmer cooperatives have rebuilt soil fertility through community-managed nutrient cycles, despite sanctions and economic sabotage. In these cases, the rift is not just an environmental wound — it is a political battlefield, where the right to control the flow of life’s basic materials is a question of class power.

The reconnection of human and ecological metabolism is not simply “sustainability” — a term capitalism has already commodified. It is about restoring the material basis of human survival on terms that serve the working class and the oppressed, not the profit margins of global capital. It requires integrated planning that treats food, water, waste, and energy not as separate “sectors” but as parts of a unified life system. And it demands that this system be democratically governed by those who depend on it, not by the technocrats of the bourgeois state.

The rift will not heal itself. Either it is closed by revolutionary transformation, or it will be closed by collapse — through soil exhaustion, water scarcity, and climate chaos. In that sense, ecosocialist planning is not just about creating a “greener” society; it is about ensuring there is a society at all.

Part X – Reconnection as Revolution
We began with the simple fact that humanity’s connection to nature has been eroded, commodified, and sold back to us in fragments — a 200-year trajectory in which the ruling class has turned rivers, forests, soils, and skies into raw inputs for profit. Along the way, this theft of connection has been dressed in the language of “progress,” “modernization,” and “development,” masking the reality that alienation from the land is not a cultural accident but a structural necessity of capitalist accumulation. The more disconnected we are, the easier it is for capital to turn the living world into dead commodities and our own labor into disposable waste.

The ecological crisis is not a side effect of capitalism; it is its metabolic truth. Urban overbuild and rural dispossession are two sides of the same coin, as are industrial monocultures and urban food deserts, climate collapse and imperialist resource wars. Each wound inflicted on the earth is mirrored by a wound inflicted on the working class — especially the colonized, whose lands are strip-mined, whose waters are poisoned, and whose children are driven into sweatshops and slums. The alienation of human beings from nature is inseparable from the alienation of workers from the means of production and the alienation of whole nations from their sovereignty.

In the Global South, revolutionary experiments have already shown that reconnection is not a utopian dream but a living possibility. Cuba’s urban gardens, the MST’s agroecological settlements in Brazil, Kerala’s decentralized planning, and Zimbabwe’s cooperative soil restoration efforts are not “green reforms” — they are acts of class struggle waged on ecological terrain. They prove that it is possible to rebuild the metabolic bond between people and the earth when land, water, and labor are taken out of the circuit of private accumulation and placed under collective stewardship.

But let us be clear: the Global North cannot outsource this revolution. The imperial core must break its own dependence on the extraction of Southern resources, dismantle the technofascist structures that manage ecological collapse for profit, and reorient production toward meeting human needs within ecological limits. This means confronting the settler-colonial land regime, abolishing agribusiness monopolies, and transforming cities from concrete prisons into nodes of ecological regeneration.

Reconnection, then, is not an individual lifestyle choice, nor is it reducible to charity-led greening projects. It is a program of revolutionary transformation that seizes control of the material flows of life — food, water, waste, energy, and land — and places them under the democratic control of the people. It is a political economy of repair, where the healing of the soil and the healing of the working class are one and the same process.

We are faced with two futures: one in which the metabolic rift is closed through the planned re-integration of humanity and nature on egalitarian and socialist terms, and another in which it is closed through collapse — by famine, forced migrations, and ecological tipping points beyond return. The ruling class has already chosen the second path. Our task is to force history toward the first.

The struggle for nature is the struggle for socialism. The struggle for socialism is the struggle for life itself. There is no middle ground.

https://weaponizedinformation.wordpress ... om-nature/

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Eight Pangolin Species Face High Extinction Risk

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A pangolin. X/ @PalmOilDetect

August 27, 2025 Hour: 9:26 am

Illegal trade, habitat loss, and lack of updated population data threaten survival despite global protections.
On Wednesday, the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) published a report showing that all eight pangolin species face a high risk of extinction due to overexploitation and habitat loss.

The report said illicit trade in pangolins remains widespread and highly organized. The animal was suspected at the start of the COVID-19 pandemic of being the direct transmitter of the virus to humans, but that hypothesis was later set aside in favor of the bat origin theory. Most experts, however, believe that if there was an intermediary host, it has not yet been identified.

Pangolins are considered fully protected species in almost every country and are listed among the animals with the highest degree of protection. Their trade is strictly regulated and limited to very specific circumstances.

Nonetheless, between 2016 and 2024, seizures of pangolin products affected more than half a million animals across 75 countries and 178 trade routes, with pangolin scales accounting for 99% of confiscated parts, the IUCN reported.


Those figures, however, reflect only a fraction of the actual trade, since not all illicit shipments are detected or intercepted by law enforcement. In addition to international trafficking, local demand for pangolin meat and other products persists in many countries. The lack of updated population estimates and limited management in the landscapes where pangolins live also complicate efforts to assess their conservation status.

“Pangolins are one of the most distinctive mammals on Earth and are among the planet’s most extraordinary creatures – ancient, gentle, and irreplaceable. Today, they are under immense pressure due to exploitation and habitat loss. Protecting them is not just about saving a species, but about safeguarding the balance of our ecosystems and the wonder of nature itself. With stronger global cooperation and a united commitment – not only by governments, but across all sectors of society – we can ensure pangolins continue to thrive for generations to come,” IUCN Director Grethel Aguliar said.

“On-going pangolin trafficking and population declines underscore that trade bans and policy changes alone are not enough,” scientist Matthew Shirley said, urging the parties of the Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species of Wild Fauna and Flora (CITES) “to work with relevant local and national stakeholders, especially grassroots, community and indigenous organizations, to incentivize effective pangolin conservation.”

“Engaging communities, Indigenous peoples, and even pangolin consumers, to co-design and implement the conservation interventions are powerful bottom-up mechanisms needed to complement the top-down policy prescriptions and achieve the desired outcomes for pangolins,” he added.

https://www.telesurenglish.net/eight-pa ... tion-risk/
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Re: The Long Ecological Revolution

Post by blindpig » Wed Sep 03, 2025 3:01 pm

Climate Change Drives Britain Toward Hottest Summer on Record

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X/ @ajplus

September 1, 2025 Hour: 7:58 am

From June 1 to Aug. 25, Britain’s mean temperature stood at 16.13 degrees Celsius.
Britain’s Met Office published data showing that the summer of 2025 will “almost certainly” become the warmest summer on record for the country since records began in 1884.

The new figures would move 2018 off the top spot and push 1976 out of the top five warmest summers, the office said in a report released earlier this week.

From June 1 to Aug. 25, Britain’s mean temperature stood at 16.13 degrees Celsius, about 1.54 degrees above the long-term meteorological average and well above the current record of 15.76 degrees set in 2018.

Met Office scientist Emily Carlisle said that unless temperatures fall by 4 degrees below average for the remainder of August, which the forecast does not suggest, it looks like the current record will be exceeded.

“Of course, there are still a few days left of meteorological summer to go, but it’s very unlikely anything will stop summer 2025 from being the warmest on record,” said Carlisle.


The summer of 1976 is still one of the most memorable in British weather history. That year, multiple locations across England experienced heatwave-like conditions for more than two weeks. There were 16 days in which temperatures exceeded 32 degrees Celsius, compared with nine such days during the summer of 2025.

While this year has not seen as many intense spikes in extreme heat, what sets 2025 apart is the consistency of the warmth. Meteorologists explained that this persistent warmth is driven by a combination of factors, including dry ground from spring, dominant high-pressure systems, and unusually warm seas around the country, creating an environment where temperatures rise quickly and linger.

Both maximum and minimum temperatures have been significantly above average, with minimum temperatures rising especially sharply. Between 1991 and 2020, Britain’s mean summer temperature was 14.59 degrees Celsius, over 0.8 degrees higher than the period from 1961 to 1990.

Climate projections show that future summers in Britain are set to become hotter and drier, a trend already evident in recent years. Experts noted that climate change has the power to turn previously unremarkable years into record-breaking ones, as baseline conditions steadily rise.

They added that the four heatwaves observed this summer, which in the past might have been seen as pleasant spells of warm weather, are made more prominent against a backdrop of global warming.

https://www.telesurenglish.net/climate- ... on-record/

They should enjoy it while they can before the Gulf Stream quits and they are left to the mercy of their latitude.

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Protecting communities from carbon markets
September 2, 2025

Carbon markets and offsets have failed to actually reduce emissions after decades of trying

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by Chris Lang
REDD-Monitor, August 21, 2025

ActionAid USA has published a report titled, Caution Required: Protecting Communities from Carbon Markets. The report highlights the dangers of carbon markets, for the climate and for local communities affected by carbon projects. The report notes the different motivations between buyers and sellers of carbon credits:

“Buyers – typically corporations or governments – are generally looking to purchase credits because they are aiming for carbon offsets under pressure to reduce emissions that they are not able or willing to do at the moment. On the other hand, sellers – often poorer global south governments or local communities – are generally not motivated by supposed climate benefits, but rather by the need for revenue.”

ActionAid USA argues that sellers of carbon credits should be protected from the harmful impacts of carbon projects, and alternative forms of revenue must be provided, “ideally direct climate finance in the form of public, grant-based funding.”

The report looks at case studies from Kenya and Liberia. In Kenya, the Northern Rangelands Trust’s Northern Kenya Grassland Carbon Project, and the Wildlife Works’ Kasigau REDD Project. In Liberia, ActionAid USA focusses mainly on Blue Carbon LLC, the United Arab Emirates company that signed a deal for 10% of the country.

Blue Carbon LLC signed a series of massive deals with several countries in Africa, as well as Pakistan and Papua New Guinea in the lead up to COP28 in Dubai. Since COP28, the company went remarkably quiet. Blue Carbon’s website has now disappeared.

Carbon markets do not reduce emissions

The report includes a section explaining why carbon markets are a false solution to the climate crisis. ActionAid USA writes that,

“On the climate front, carbon markets and offsets have failed to actually reduce emissions after decades of trying. In short, they do not work. And even if they could provide some climate benefits (which, again, as a rule, they do not), the idea that that benefit would somehow make ongoing emissions elsewhere acceptable, as the world careens towards nearly three degrees of warming, is indefensible.”

The report refers to some of the studies that have exposed the failures of carbon offset projects to reduce emissions.

ActionAid USA goes through the familiar list of the causes of these failures. Some projects are outright fraudulent. Others are badly designed and ineffective. There’s the risk of reversals, for example when carbon projects are wiped out by wildfires — which is increasingly likely as the climate gets hotter. Counterfactual baselines are easily manipulated to inflate the number of carbon credits generated. Other carbon projects are not “additional” and the climate benefit would have happened regardless of the sale of carbon credits. And then there’s leakage, where an area of forest may be protected, but forest destruction increases elsewhere.

It’s worth reminding ourselves of what Larry Lohmann wrote nine years ago: “The problem is not ‘bad baselines’ but the concept of counterfactual baselines itself.”

The problems underlying carbon markets cannot be addressed by improved methodologies, better measurement, or somehow correcting “non-additionality”. The problems are structural and unavoidable.

There is another problem, as ActionAid USA points out. Even if carbon projects do reduce emissions in one place, the sale of carbon credits allows the buyer to continue polluting. We cannot afford those continued emissions, greenwashed with offsets or not: “The world is now well past the point where any ongoing emissions that can be reduced or halted must be as soon as possible. Everything that can be done to reduce emissions must be done, as quickly as possible.”

The impact of carbon projects

In September 2023, Carbon Brief published an article documenting the impacts of carbon offset projects on the Indigenous Peoples and local communities living in and around the projects. The article states that, “Indigenous peoples have been forcibly removed from their land because of carbon-offsetting in the Republic of the Congo and Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), the Brazilian, Colombian and Peruvian Amazon, Kenya, Malaysia and Indonesia.”

The article includes a map of problematic carbon offset projects around the world where Indigenous Peoples have been affected, the number of offsets overestimated, land was used illegally, and/or food production was affected.

A new risk involves Article 6 of the Paris Agreement. Negotiators have not yet agreed on who will be liable for failed carbon credit projects traded under the Paris Agreement Crediting Mechanism.

Will the company or country that bought the carbon credits liable for the extra emissions? Or will the country selling the carbon credits be liable? Or the communities where the carbon project was established?

ActionAid USA writes that, “While this remains unsettled internationally with pushback against host countries bearing this burden, they should be proactive to avoid being left holding the bag. This should be a key consideration when host countries establish legal frameworks and negotiate contracts related to carbon credit sales.”

ActionAid USA’s recommendations

ActionAid USA’s report ends with a series of “key suggestions” for governments and communities considering carbon markets. The suggestions are posted here in full.

Ensure tenure rights to land are preserved: This is possibly the most critical demand, as land grabs are a serious risk to communities. Communities should not agree, under any circumstances, to give up land tenure to outside parties. Agreements on the climate action — such as stopping deforestation, ecosystem restoration, and so on — will be needed, but ceding ownership or control of the land to an outside entity, as was done in many of the Blue Carbon deals, is unacceptable. The risks to food security and land rights are simply too great.

Ensure transparency in negotiations and meaningful community consultations over any major agreements: Many of the most damaging carbon deals have occurred without meaningful input and often without community knowledge. Negotiations should be transparent and inclusive, with meaningful and widespread consultations with the community held from the outset. Ideally, projects would also be rooted in plans developed by the communities already, reflecting the community’s needs and objectives related to climate action.

Do not accept liability for failed carbon projects: In the event of reversals — meaning carbon is released into the atmosphere and the credit failed on the climate goals (for example, due to deforestation, forest fires, droughts, etc.) — or some other kind of failure for a climate credit that has already been sold, the question then becomes who is liable for that failure and how the emissions are counted. Host communities should not accept any liability for reversals or other failures that result in the credits being declared worthless, or “junk”. Host liability could leave communities with a very expensive bill for a reversal that is completely out of their control.

Avoid “Middle Men” as much as possible: Outside companies or entities that end up selling the carbon credits to customers often take a massive cut of any profits and often are not even based in the country in question. The financial benefits from these projects should be kept as close to the community as possible, which will generally mean avoiding any company seeking to sell on behalf of the community.

Accessible and effective grievance mechanisms must be in place: The mechanism needs to be able hold both individual bad actors and the project as a whole accountable; these are essential.

No offsets: Any carbon credits sold should be bought as “contributions” to climate action, rather than being bought to offset ongoing emissions, and allowing the planet’s biggest polluters to falsely claim that they are “carbon neutral”. Realistically, this will likely reduce interest in buying carbon credits considerably, as most buyers are not operating under altruistic motives. However, the notion that climate action through a market mechanism renders emissions elsewhere acceptable or acceptable is deeply flawed and should be called out.

https://climateandcapitalism.com/2025/0 ... n-markets/

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The fire this time: capitalism and the limits of survival
Originally published: Defend Democracy Press on July 17, 2025 by George Cassidy Payne (more by Defend Democracy Press) | (Posted Sep 03, 2025)

Can capitalism survive the climate crisis it helped create? Or must we finally admit that it’s the system itself that’s killing us?
The world is burning, both literally and figuratively. Temperatures are shattering records. Wildfires sweep across continents. Glaciers melt while droughts deepen. Inequality balloons. Billions go hungry while billionaires build bunkers. And through it all, one system marches forward, extracting, exploiting, expanding.

Its name is capitalism.

And the question we must now face, urgently, collectively, without illusion, is this: Can capitalism survive the climate crisis it helped create? Or must we finally admit that it’s the system itself that’s killing us?

This isn’t just a theoretical question. It’s a matter of survival.

Contrary to what some economists would have us believe, capitalism didn’t arise through peaceful trade or natural evolution. It was forged in conquest, enclosure, slavery, and plunder.

Capitalism is not broken because it has failed to innovate. It’s broken because it has succeeded, at concentrating wealth, externalizing costs, and turning the Earth into a profit machine.

In early modern Europe, peasants were forced off common lands so the wealthy could raise sheep for profit. The so-called “Enclosure Movement” turned shared resources into private property, creating the first landless laborers, people with no choice but to sell their labor to survive.

From there, capitalism scaled outward. Empires expanded, fueled by the theft of land, labor, and life. The Atlantic slave trade, the colonization of the Americas, and the pillaging of India and Africa were not side effects, they were the fuel that powered capitalist growth.

Later came the Industrial Revolution, mechanizing exploitation, churning out commodities, and giving birth to the cult of “growth.” What had once been measured in survival and sustenance was now measured in productivity, output, and profit.

By the 20th century, capitalism had globalized. And by the 21st, it had digitized, financialized, and fully detached from the ecological limits of the planet.

The Myth of Green Capitalism
Today, we’re told that capitalism can fix the very crises it’s caused. Silicon Valley technologists, global financiers, and political centrists speak of green growth, decoupling, and innovation. Solar panels, electric vehicles, carbon markets, environmental and social governance portfolios, these are the new gospel.

But while emissions rise, forests fall, and temperatures climb, the promises feel increasingly hollow.

Capitalism is not broken because it has failed to innovate. It’s broken because it has succeeded, at concentrating wealth, externalizing costs, and turning the Earth into a profit machine.

The logic of endless growth is fundamentally at odds with a planet that cannot grow. And no amount of green branding can change that.

In places like Rochester, New York we see both the consequences of capitalism and the seeds of resistance.

The private utility company, Rochester Gas and Electric, is facing a people-powered campaign for public takeover after years of rate hikes and service failures. Community land trusts are reclaiming housing from speculative markets. Regenerative farms are feeding neighbors instead of shareholders. These are not utopias, they’re struggles. But they are real, local, and rooted in solidarity.

They remind us that the fight for climate justice is also a fight for energy democracy, housing justice, and food sovereignty. It’s not about tweaking the system. It’s about transforming it.

Gandhi’s Warning and Vision
Over a century ago, Mohandas Gandhi warned of where industrial capitalism would lead. In Hind Swaraj, he rejected not only colonial rule, but the Western model of “progress” itself. He saw clearly that a civilization based on speed, greed, and machinery would eventually consume itself.

“Earth provides enough to satisfy every man’s needs,” he wrote, “but not every man’s greed.”

Gandhi’s vision wasn’t a return to the past, it was a radical call for restraint, community, and moral clarity. He called for economies rooted in place, not profit. He believed wealth should be held in trusteeship, not hoarded for personal gain. And he insisted that any real revolution must begin within the soul.

Capitalism is not compatible with climate justice. It never was.

To many, this sounded naïve. Today, it sounds prophetic.

The reckoning is now. A dead planet can not turn a profit. Capitalism gave us vaccines, satellites, supercomputers. But it also gave us rising seas, poisoned air, and mass extinction. We cannot separate the gifts from the costs. And we can no longer pretend that reform is enough.

Yes, we need innovation. Yes, we need policy. But we also need imagination. We need the courage to envision systems not based on extraction, but on care. Not on growth, but on balance. Not on domination, but on solidarity.

We need, as the late David Graeber wrote, a world where we treat each other as if we actually matter.

The road ahead will not be easy. It will be full of contradictions, compromises, and uncertainty. But we must begin with honesty: Capitalism is not compatible with climate justice. It never was.

And we cannot build a livable future with the same tools that built the crisis.

It’s time to stop asking whether capitalism can be fixed, and start building the alternatives that already exist in our communities, our movements, and our collective memory.

There may still be time.

But not much.

And history, like the atmosphere, is watching.

https://mronline.org/2025/09/03/the-fir ... -survival/

Well, he gets it half way right...but resistance must be unified and result in revolution because our only real strength is in our numbers. Alternatives to capitalism will not be allowed while capital holds the whip hand.
"There is great chaos under heaven; the situation is excellent."

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Re: The Long Ecological Revolution

Post by blindpig » Mon Sep 08, 2025 2:07 pm

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What is behind China’s successful leadership in tackling the climate crisis?
Ganesh Tailor, writing in People’s Voice, newspaper of the Communist Party of Canada, argues that China’s success in tackling the climate crisis stems from its socialist system and long-term planning:

China’s Five-Year Plans allow for the massive, state-led mobilisation of resources with long-term sustainable goals in mind. These initiatives, necessary for the common good, have led to the PRC’s rise as the world leader in solar panel production and installation and its dominance in wind and hydroelectric projects, along with rapid expansions in electric vehicles and high-speed rail.

Ganesh observes that Chinese innovations around sustainable development are having a global impact, particularly in the Global South:

Through the Belt-and-Road Initiative, Global South countries have received loans to build green infrastructure and develop their sovereign economies without having to concede to structural adjustment or austerity programs, as infamously required by the IMF and World Bank. Instead, China has worked with Pakistan and Zambia to build solar farms, Ethiopia and South Africa to build wind turbines, and Laos and Ecuador to build hydroelectric dams – to name only a few. These projects enable partner countries to diversify their energy sources, especially away from fossil fuels, and strengthen their sovereignty through economic growth and stability.

While the US imposes a criminal blockade on Cuba, “China has donated solar farms, along with at least 70 tons of power generator parts and accessories to aid in Cuba’s energy grid’s robustness. China has additionally provided significant financing for solar infrastructure, with projections for solar powering two-thirds of present-day Cuban demand by 2028.” The article continues:

A stabilized power grid directly translates to a better quality of life for everyday Cubans. Solar farms reduce the frequency and duration of blackouts and free up foreign currency, otherwise spent on oil, to be spent on crucial resources like food and medicine imports. Partnership with the PRC in energy diversification away from imperialist-led fossil fuel hegemony bolsters Cuba’s ability to serve its people and continue defending its hard-fought revolution.

Ganesh concludes that capitalism cannot resolve the climate crisis, as profit-driven systems inherently obstruct real solutions. China’s achievements demonstrate that socialism offers the only viable path to a collective, internationalist, and sustainable future.
We are living through the prime existential threat facing life on this planet. The climate crisis is an undeniable reality born from the inherent contradictions of capitalism. The profit motive and its ecological impacts in development are increasingly borne by the planet and its peoples. We are continually told of supposed “solutions” that are, in reality, nothing more than greenwashing and toothless accords meant to at best manage decline, and at worst open new carbon markets.

Despite the ruthless propaganda emanating from the worst offenders in Washington and Ottawa, the People’s Republic of China, under the leadership of the Communist Party, is demonstrating the superiority of centralized and long-term economic planning to tackle this global challenge.

Setting the record straight
We must first address a half-truth which continues to echo off liberal walls that China is the world’s biggest polluter. China indeed has the highest absolute emissions of any country. But that is the half-truth. The other half requires us to ask where these emissions come from.

The PRC, with a population over 1.4 billion, will unsurprisingly have high yearly emissions. On a per capita basis, however, China’s first-place position tumbles well below that of the US and Canada.

Neither can we omit the historical record of obscene fossil fuel emissions on which the US and its partners in imperialism built their empire. These advanced capitalist countries accumulated and continue to accumulate a vast climate debt to the order of 60-86 percent of historical emissions and therefore have a primary responsibility to lead and support sustainable transition.

Conversely, China’s development is recent and while its share of cumulative emissions has risen to between 1-15 percent, it has supported one-eighth of the world’s population and produced a large part of those emissions in its role as the “workshop of the world” which manufactures a significant bulk of goods consumed outside its borders. Emissions from these imports are embodied in the toys, tools and electronics we conveniently find on the shelves of the nearest store.

Judging China as identical or worse based on the absolute emissions of today obscures the West’s centuries of far harsher and cumulative damage.

Domestic and internationalist green transition
Unlike the anarchy of production and pursuit of quarterly profits inherent to capitalism, China’s Five-Year Plans allow for the massive, state-led mobilization of resources with long-term sustainable goals in mind. These initiatives, necessary for the common good, have led to the PRC’s rise as the world leader in solar panel production and installation and its dominance in wind and hydroelectric projects, along with rapid expansions in electric vehicles and high-speed rail.

While admirable, these efforts cannot transform China’s energy landscape overnight. Coal, one of the dirtiest fossil fuels, still dominates the energy mix powering China, along with oil. However, the recent and massive uptick in development and instalment of renewable energy cannot be ignored. Installing more wind turbines and solar panels than the rest of the world combined makes it a safe bet to predict a monumental shift in China’s energy use patterns.

Chinese infrastructure initiatives do not halt at their border. Through the Belt-and-Road Initiative, Global South countries have received loans to build green infrastructure and develop their sovereign economies without having to concede to structural adjustment or austerity programs, as infamously required by the IMF and World Bank. Instead, China has worked with Pakistan and Zambia to build solar farms, Ethiopia and South Africa to build wind turbines, and Laos and Ecuador to build hydroelectric dams – to name only a few. These projects enable partner countries to diversify their energy sources, especially away from fossil fuels, and strengthen their sovereignty through economic growth and stability.

Cuba’s energy sovereignty
The 65-year-long economic war waged by the US against Cuba has been a suffocating siege designed with explicit and genocidal intent. Cuba’s energy sector has been a primary target of US imperialist aggression, preventing access to fuel, technology and spare parts for its Soviet-era energy grids. The resulting struggle is borne by all of Cuba, with the people enduring blackouts and fuel shortages impacting homes, refrigerators, hospitals and production.

To bolster Cuba’s energy sector is a much-needed lifeline. China has not merely sold technology or provided loans; it has donated solar farms, along with at least 70 tons of power generator parts and accessories to aid in Cuba’s energy grid’s robustness. China has additionally provided significant financing for solar infrastructure, with projections for solar powering two-thirds of present-day Cuban demand by 2028.

Oil can be sanctioned. The sun? Not so much. Every megawatt of Chinese-built solar energy is a megawatt out of reach of the US blockade. These projects are building Cuba’s energy sovereignty from the ground up, diversifying sources and making it less dependent on fossil fuel imports which are many times halted by the US.

A stabilized power grid directly translates to a better quality of life for everyday Cubans. Solar farms reduce the frequency and duration of blackouts and free up foreign currency, otherwise spent on oil, to be spent on crucial resources like food and medicine imports. Partnership with the PRC in energy diversification away from imperialist-led fossil fuel hegemony bolsters Cuba’s ability to serve its people and continue defending its hard-fought revolution.

The only way forward: socialism
Capitalism created the climate crisis and is incapable of solving it. Capitalist solutions are built to turn a profit, not reverse climate change. The PRC’s strategy of long-term and centralized planning, along with strategic market utilization, shows Canada and the world a viable path forward. It is important to recognize China’s real advances where it is leading the world towards a necessary and timely green transition – this means rejecting the rabid anti-China narrative pushed by governments and media in Canada.

Combating climate catastrophe means fighting for a public-led and planned green transition in Canada that ensures job growth in the green energy sector. This can only be achieved by shattering the stranglehold power of fossil fuel and natural resource monopolies.

There is no future for our planet and humanity if it continues to be dictated by profit. We need sharpen the struggle for socialism – the only viable future is one that is planned, collective and internationalist.

https://socialistchina.org/2025/09/02/w ... te-crisis/

******

Left movements in South Asia call for increased mobilizations to face the effects of climate change

Incessant and unprecedented rains in the last month have caused havoc in the region with hundreds killed, millions displaced, standing crops destroyed, and cities in chaos.

September 05, 2025 by Abdul Rahman

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In Ferozepur, its teams distributed dry ration packets to the stranded villagers, fodder to cattle and rescued weak and sick people in its speed boats. Photo: BSF Punjab Frontier

Hundreds of people have lost their lives and millions their livelihoods and homes due to persistent flooding in India and Pakistan. The unprecedented rains in the last month have caused the rivers in the northern parts of both countries to flood most of the province of Punjab on either side of the border.

Several other areas in both countries have been badly affected by the floods, such as Sindh and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) in Pakistan and Himachal Pradesh, Jammu and Kashmir, and Haryana in India.

Both countries have deployed their armed forces to evacuate thousands of people trapped in areas submerged in water and to run other forms of relief work, due to ineffective disaster management bodies.

The floods have caused massive damage to the agriculture sector in particular. Both sides of Punjab and Haryana in India are the major food producing regions. The overflowing rivers have flooded the fields and destroyed hundreds of thousands of acres of standing crops in both countries.

In addition to the fact that farmers in both countries have lost millions of dollars in the floods, the massive destruction caused to the standing food crops has raised the alarm of a possible food crisis in both countries.

The hundreds of thousands of people living in low lying areas or in the hills in both the countries have lost their homes in rains, floods, or landslides and are now forced to live in relief camps.

There is a growing fear that the flood water in the Indus river system, from even across the border in India, now moving to lower riparian regions in Pakistan’s Sindh, will cause further damage to life and livelihoods.

Pakistan has faced flood situations regularly over the last few years. This has been largely attributed to changing climate patterns caused by global warming.

Pakistan has repeatedly claimed that it is a victim of the climate disaster created largely by first-world countries and demanded compensation for the same.

State’s criminal negligence causing larger damages
Expressing solidarity with the flood-affected region and people, left and progressive forces in both India and Pakistan have, however, questioned the failure of the states to take effective measures on time to address the damage, calling it a criminal negligence.

Claiming that the disaster was preventable, Mazdoor Kisan Party (MKP) released a statement blaming the country’s ruling classes for failing to do “essential public works” due to their greed and inefficiency.

“They have allowed our historic canals and flood defenses to crumble. They have enabled land mafias and capitalist developers to destroy our forests and choke our natural floodplains,” MKP claimed in the statement, demanding – aside from extensive relief and rehabilitation work – that the state take long-term measures such as investment in people-centric water management, restoring and expanding the traditional irrigation and drainage systems, reclaiming natural defenses such as floodplains and wetlands, massive reforestation, and building urban resilience networks such as storm drains.

MKP called for an “organized struggle of workers, peasants, and all oppressed people to demand a state that prioritizes their lives and livelihoods.”

It noted that “the global climate crisis is not of our making, but we can and must build a resilient Pakistan capable of withstanding its impacts,” which can only be achieved if we break from the current capitalist and feudal system and work for a socialist one.

In India, All India Kisan Sabha (AIKS), India’s largest organized farmers’ union, demanded a comprehensive relief package from the government for the people affected, apart from mobilizing popular donations.

AIKS has already mobilized its cadres in Punjab and Haryana to carry out relief work.

However, it noted that “anything short of a large monetary aid will accentuate the extreme distress being faced by farmers and workers of the affected areas.”

https://peoplesdispatch.org/2025/09/05/ ... te-change/

*****

60% of Earth’s land area is now out of the safe operating zone
September 7, 2025

Structural changes have pushed a majority of land ecosystems into precarious conditions

Image

The Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research reports:

A new study maps the planetary boundary of “functional biosphere integrity” in spatial detail and over centuries. It finds that 60 percent of global land areas are now already outside the locally defined safe zone, and 38 percent are even in the high-risk zone.

Functional biosphere integrity refers to the plant world’s ability to co-regulate the state of the Earth system. This requires that the plant world is able to acquire enough energy through photosynthesis to maintain the material flows of carbon, water and nitrogen that support the ecosystems and their many networked processes, despite today’s massive human interference. Together with biodiversity loss and climate change, functional integrity forms the core of the Planetary Boundaries analytical framework for a safe operating space for humanity.

“There is an enormous need for civilisation to utilise the biosphere – for food, raw materials and, in future, also for climate protection,” says Fabian Stenzel, lead author of the study and member of the PIK research group Terrestrial Safe Operating Space. “After all, human demand for biomass continues to grow – and on top of that, the cultivation of fast-growing grasses or trees for producing bioenergy with carbon capture and storage is considered by many to be an important supporting strategy for stabilising climate. It is therefore becoming even more important to quantify the strain we’re already putting on the biosphere – in a regionally differentiated manner and over time – to identify overloads. Our research is paving the way for this.”

Two indicators to measure the strain and the risk

The study builds on the latest update of the Planetary Boundaries framework published in 2023. “The framework now squarely puts energy flows from photosynthesis in the world’s vegetation at the centre of those processes that co-regulate planetary stability”, explains Wolfgang Lucht, head of PIK’s Earth System Analysis department and coordinator of the study. “These energy flows drive all of life – but humans are now diverting a sizeable fraction of them to their own purposes, disturbing nature’s dynamic processes.”

The stress this causes in the Earth system can be measured by the proportion of natural biomass productivity that humanity channels into its own uses – through harvested crops, residues and timber – but also the reduction in photosynthetic activity caused by land cultivation and sealing. The study added to this measure a second powerful indicator of biosphere integrity: An indicator of risk of ecosystem destabilisation records complex structural changes in vegetation and in the biosphere’s water, carbon and nitrogen balances.

Europe, Asia and North America particularly affected

Based on a global biosphere model that simulates water, carbon and nitrogen flows on a daily basis at a resolution of half a degree of longitude/latitude, the study provides a detailed inventory for each individual year since the 1600, based on changes in climate and human land use. The research team not only computed, mapped and compared the two indicators for functional integrity of the biosphere, but also evaluated them by conducting a mathematical comparison with other measures from the literature for which “critical thresholds” are known. This resulted in each area being assigned a status based on local tolerance limits of ecosystem change: Safe Operating Space, Zone of Increasing Risk or High Risk Zone.

The model calculation shows that worrying developments began as early as 1600 in the mid-latitudes. By 1900, the proportion of global land area where ecosystem changes went beyond the locally defined safe zone, or were even in the high-risk zone, was 37 and 14 percent respectively, compared to the 60 and 38 percent we see today. Industrialisation was beginning to take its toll; land use affected the state of the Earth system much earlier than climate warming.

At present, this biosphere boundary has been transgressed on almost all land surface – primarily in Europe, Asia and North America – that underwent strong land cover conversion, mainly due to agriculture.

The study was led by the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research together with BOKU University in Vienna and published in the journal One Earth.

https://climateandcapitalism.com/2025/0 ... ting-zone/
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Re: The Long Ecological Revolution

Post by blindpig » Sat Sep 13, 2025 2:02 pm

Major New Paper in Nature: Climate Change Increase; Intensity and Frequency of Heatwaves; 1/4 “Virtually Impossible” Otherwise; “Carbon Majors” Accounted for Half of Intensity Increase
Posted on September 11, 2025 by Yves Smith

Nature has just published a blockbuster new paper on the role of anthropogenic activity in heatwaves from 2000 to 2019. Many articles attribute increasingly wild weather, as in more severe heatwaves, more intense rain producing more floods, and out-of-season temperatures (both hot winters and weird cold snaps in summers). In our daily Links, we’ve highlighted only a comparatively small portion of way-out-of-band events, as well as their impact, from flood deaths to pests and pathogens becoming common in areas where they were formerly absent to significant falls in farm output. Because there are so many of these events now, it seems as if only the ones that produce a catastrophic death count, like flooding in the Punjab or central Texas, or extensive wildfires, such as in Europe and Canada, get much attention outside their region. Yet in a 10 day heatwave in Europe over the summer, 2,300 died, which is 1,500 more that would likely have succumbed otherwise. Extreme heat is also producing or worsening droughts. The image below is from the UN’s World Population Review:

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Even with the seemingly overwhelming evidence of climate change, like disappearing glaciers, there’s still a rearguard trying to attribute it to something other than fossil fuel emissions, say solar activity. But courts are siding against that view. From a new KFF Health News story, Climate Activists Cite Health Hazards in Bid To Stop Trump From ‘Unleashing’ Fossil Fuels:

In 2023, a group of 16 young Montanans won a much-heralded climate change case that said the state had deprived them of a “clean and healthful environment,” a right enshrined in Montana’s constitution.

Their victory in Held v. Montana, later upheld by the state Supreme Court, resounded across the country, showing that young people have a stake in the issue of climate change, advocates say. Yet, state policies to address the causes of climate change in Montana — home to large coal, oil, and natural gas deposits — haven’t changed in the wake of the case.

On Sept. 17, some of those plaintiffs are scheduled to appear in federal court to request that U.S. District Judge Dana Christensen block a series of President Donald Trump’s executive orders on energy issues. They argue the orders violate their Fifth Amendment rights and will cause nearly 200,000 additional deaths over the next 25 years and lead to more heart, respiratory, and other health problems. They are joined by other plaintiffs ages 7 to 24 from California, Florida, Hawaii, and Oregon, and are backed by the climate-focused nonprofit Our Children’s Trust….

The plaintiffs are asking the court to declare Trump’s three related executive orders — “Unleashing American Energy,” “Declaring a National Energy Emergency,” and “Reinvigorating America’s Beautiful Clean Coal Industry” — unconstitutional and to block their implementation. They also claim that Trump has overstepped his authority by attempting to undo laws such as the Clean Air Act. A coalition of 14 states’ attorneys general has also filed a lawsuit against the order that declares an energy emergency.

Trump came into office in January primed to support traditional energy sources and to back off efforts to usher in an era of renewable energy, which he claims are not viable. He has also issued orders rolling back environmental regulations. “We are driving a dagger into the heart of the climate change religion to drive down the cost of living for American families, unleash American energy, bring auto jobs back to the U.S., and more,” Environmental Protection Agency Administrator Lee Zeldin said in a March news release.

In July, the EPA proposed repealing its 2009 “endangerment finding” that concluded climate-warming gases “endanger both the public health and the public welfare of current and future generations.”

Actions like this have been successfully challenged in the past. However, some hope that the Held v. Montana ruling will bolster the position of climate-action-seeking plaintiffs.

As much as the judiciary pretends that it rules based on the law alone, interpretations change with shifts in prevailing opinion and with new information challenging the wording of statute and older decisions. So the Nature paper below is important not just in and of itself, but for its potential to move the goalposts by drawing stronger causal links between human action and global warming. The paper, Systematic attribution of heatwaves to the emissions of carbon majors, is too large to embed in this post, so I hope readers will take the time to review it. Its other important contribution is estimating the impact of the biggest fossil fuel emission bad actors. Its abstract:

Extreme event attribution assesses how climate change affected climate extremes, but typically focuses on single events. Furthermore, these attributions rarely quantify the extent to which anthropogenic actors have contributed to these events,. Here we show that climate change made 213 historical heatwaves reported over 2000–2023 more likely and more intense, to which each of the 180 carbon majors (fossil fuel and cement producers) substantially contributed. This work relies on the expansion of a well-established event-based framework1. Owing to global warming since 1850–1900, the median of the heatwaves during 2000–2009 became about 20 times more likely, and about 200 times more likely during 2010–2019. Overall, one-quarter of these events were virtually impossible without climate change. The emissions of the carbon majors contribute to half the increase in heatwave intensity since 1850–1900. Depending on the carbon major, their individual contribution is high enough to enable the occurrence of 16–53 heatwaves that would have been virtually impossible in a preindustrial climate. We, therefore, establish that the influence of climate change on heatwaves has increased, and that all carbon majors, even the smaller ones, contributed substantially to the occurrence of heatwaves. Our results contribute to filling the evidentiary gap to establish accountability of historical climate extremes.

Much of the analysis is over my pay grade, but below are some key graphics:

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I hope you will read and circulate this paper. It looks to represent an important step forward in the climate change debate by not only looking at severity of outcomes but also responsible parties.

https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2025/09 ... rease.html

******

The Second Africa Climate Summit Reveals The New Face of Colonialism; Technocrats and Cryptocolonization (Part 1, The Setting).
Anthony Karefa Rogers-Wright 10 Sep 2025

Image
The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam in Benishangul-Gumuz, Ethiopia/ Abiy Ahmed Ali/Prime Minister of Ethiopia/Facebook

The Africa Climate Summit is a greenwashing front for a new wave of colonialism. Under the guise of "nature-based solutions," corporations like the Gates Foundation are pushing schemes that will turn the continent into a carbon sink for the world's worst polluters.

“Africa exists as three things and three things only for the Western colonizers… everything they want(ed), everything they need(ed), and everything they don’t want to pay for.” - Dr. Muhammad Samura

Addis Ababa, Ethiopia

Ethiopia may be impoverished financially, but is irrefutably one of the wealthiest nations I’ve ever been to as it pertains to culture, heritage, and national pride. Addis Ababa is a proper city that is clearly rising with new construction everywhere from housing, to hotels, and infrastructure that includes the largest hydroelectric dam on the continent, which began operations on September 9, 2025. To this end, the vibrant city with its gregarious and affable residents was more than an appropriate location to host the second bi-annual Africa Climate Summit (ACS2). This is especially true as ACS2 was held at a time when Ethiopia is celebrating its national New Year Holiday and the opening of its new, aforementioned, hydroelectric dam, the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), which Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed hailed as, “the greatest achievement in the history of the Black race.”

But while ACS2 was billed as a menagerie of hope and promise, it also revealed a specter of a new phase of neocolonialism on the continent . . . a specter that could very well bleed Africa dry of its abundant natural resources and its very culture that is on the brink of being captured by technocratic behemoths and false climate change solutions. These forces could render the continent into the face of greenwashing scams with the potential to vindicate the notion that now that slaves are no longer taken from Africa via chattel slavery, a new form of bondage, which some refer to as “climate colonialism” will instead be brought to Africa in ways that will pillage its agency and self-determination and unleash a contemporary tragedy of the commons.

According to African Union Commission Chair, His Excellency (HE) Mahmoud Ali Youssouf, “[ACS2] marks a decisive moment for Africa to unite in pursuit of climate justice, resilient development, and a sustainable future for generations to come - directly advancing our continental blueprint, Agenda 2063: ‘The Africa We Want’ and further “demonstrate Africa's technological solutions, where ecology and nature-based solutions drive the economy, and resilience becomes [its] legacy.” Additionally, the summit also is meant to establish a unified African agenda for the upcoming global climate conference, COP 30, that will be held in Belem, Brazil later this year.

Heralding “nature based solutions” in itself is seen by many in the global climate and environmental justice community as problematic. According to the informational document Hoodwinked in the Hothouse developed by a coalition of organizations including Climate Justice Alliance, Just Transition Alliance, Indigenous Environmental Network, and others, nature based solutions, typically in the form of carbon pricing, “assign a monetary value to greenhouse gas pollution mask the fact that carbon pricing allows fossil fuel extraction to continue unabated under the false assumption that market forces will drive significant emissions reductions.”

And other groups like the World Rainforest Movement assert, “What corporations and big conservation groups call "nature-based solutions" is a dangerous distraction. Their marketing concept is dressed up with unproven and flawed data and the claim that the idea can provide 37 percent of reductions in CO2 by 2030.” They continue, “Nature-based solutions are thus not a solution, they are a scam. The purported solutions will result in “nature-based dispossessions” because they will enclose the remaining living spaces of Indigenous Peoples, peasants and other forest-dependent communities and reduce “nature” to a service provider for offsetting corporations’ pollution and to protect the profits of those corporations most responsible for climate chaos.”

So the question becomes, who is behind the push to turn the African continent into a corporate carbon sink of green capitalism that will not only allow the largest polluters in the world to continue their profit model of extract and emit fossil fuels but also partner with African leaders including African Union Chair Yousoff to push these “false solutions” and inculcate Africa’s young population who are forecasted to produce more people entering the workforce each year by 2035 than the rest of the world combined? A quick review of the ACS2 website reveals that one of its “Title Sponsors” is none other than the Gates Foundation who have had a profound presence on the continent for decades.

The Gates Foundation’s flagship African program, Alliance for a Green Revolution in Africa (AGRA) has been the subject of sharp rebukes for failing to accomplish its purported “green revolution” on the continent that was supposed to improve health and reduce poverty, but in fact engendering more problems including, but not limited to, “growing pesticide use, environmental degradation, worsening soil quality, reduced diversity of food crops, hooking farmers in a debt cycle with expensive inputs, and increased corporate control over food systems.” It should be noted that the Gates Foundation’s “green revolution” also includes a concept known as “climate smart agriculture” that climate and environmental justice groups such as the global agroecological alliance, La Via Campesina deem a false solution.

Yet for all the damage distributed by the Gates Foundation, a new entity has keen interest in the continent - one of the most resource extractive industries in the world, crypto-mining. The Microsoft Corporation, which is the driving revenue source for the Gates Foundation have two key things in common with crypto-mining corporations - a heavy interest in driving the AI market and an associated need for governments willing to hand over its natural resources in the form of energy and water to allow for cryptomining and AI to operate in exchange for short-term payouts. In fact, the major beneficiaries of the new Gerd dam that just opened in Ethiopia will be miners of cryptocurrencies whose data centers are projected to command approximately 66% of the nation’s electricity in 2025.

The only thing more profound than Africans at ACS2 was the number of panels discussing AI’s future on the continent. One of the panels I attended centered the use of AI for enhancing agriculture and energy use on the continent. When questions were raised about the massive amount of energy and water required to operate AI data centers, the panelists all seemed to agree that Africa’s “abundant energy and natural resources” would be up to task to accommodate.

So-called climate finance through carbon markets for nature based solutions and rolling out the red carpet to Big Tech will very likely open a portal to long-term neocolonialism that would put the entire continent under the green thumbs of green capitalists and their greenwashing schemes. And the U.S. Africa Command’s (AFRICOM) growing presence on the continent could very well become the vehicle to act as a vanguard for the resource needs of U.S-based and other multi-national corporations, which we have seen in other regions of the world, most notably the Middle East. If climate “solutions” are nothing more than mechanisms for neocolonialism and the pillage of self-determination and agency it becomes clearer that world leaders, neoliberal think tanks and neoliberal “environmental” organizations such as Conservation International and the World Wildlife Fund do not view climate change first and foremost as an issue central to establishing and maintaining people(s) centered human rights.

This has massive implications for Africa’s most essential natural resource, its young people. Next week we will take a closer look at how many of the young people who attended ACS2 are navigating the need for climate finance to implement their local projects while also pushing back against Western paternalism and demanding more self determination and agency of their own on the continent and the world over ahead of COP 30.

https://www.blackagendareport.com/secon ... ion-part-1
"There is great chaos under heaven; the situation is excellent."

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Re: The Long Ecological Revolution

Post by blindpig » Wed Sep 17, 2025 2:37 pm

Who is responsible for heat that kills?
September 15, 2025

New study identifies corporate culprits in deaths from rise in extreme heat waves

Image
“The Earth is not dying. It is being killed, and the people who are killing it have names and addresses.” —Utah Phillips

by Ian Angus

Discussions of climate change that focus on the 1.5°C or 2.0°C targets can be misleading. An increase of less than two degrees seems small compared to the normal temperature variations we experience from season to season or even from night to day.

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The problem, of course, is that 1.5°C and 2.0°C are averages that conceal extremes. Graphs of current and projected temperatures consistently display what statisticians call “fat tails”—meaning that high temperatures are more likely than standard bell curves suggest.

The danger to human life lies not so much in heat as in heat waves, extreme events that have more than doubled in frequency and length in recent decades.

In 2003, a heat wave in Europe killed over 70,000 people. Another, in Russia in 2010, killed 56,000. In 2015, a heat wave in India and Pakistan killed 5,500. During six days of the 2024 Haj pilgrimage to Mecca, heat stress killed more than 1,300 pilgrims. Between 2000 and 2019, more people were killed by heat waves than by floods, hurricanes, earthquakes and wildfires combined.

A study in The Lancet comments:

“Extreme heat events are becoming permanent features of summer seasons worldwide, causing many excess deaths. Heat-related morbidity and mortality are projected to increase further as climate change progresses, with greater risk associated with higher degrees of global warming. Particularly in tropical regions, increased warming might mean that physiological limits related to heat tolerance (survival) will be reached regularly and more often in coming decades.”[1]

Humans are warm blooded, which means that internal metabolic processes keep our body temperature stable—no matter how cold or hot the surrounding environment is, your system fights to keep your core temperature very close to 37°C (98.6°F). The hypothalamus, a small organ near the center of your brain, monitors thermoreceptors located throughout your body. If your temperature drops below normal, it releases hormones that reduce blood flow near your skin, so heat can’t escape, and it may cause muscle contractions (shivering) that warm your body. If you are too hot, it instructs your blood vessels to open wider, releasing heat through your skin. It may cause sweating, which cools you by evaporation.

But there are limits beyond which even a very healthy young body cannot adapt. At a certain point—typically 41°C, but it varies with age and physical condition—your internal heat control system will stop working. “When the body’s enzymes begin to denature, in essence being ‘cooked,’ these vital chemical messengers that maintain our metabolic processes cease to function, liver and kidney failure follow, and the brain and central nervous system malfunction prior to shutdown. Extreme heat kills.”[2]

A widely-cited study led by Dr. Camilo Mora of the University of Hawai’i found “Twenty-Seven Ways a Heat Wave Can Kill You” — 27 different physiological mechanisms triggered by heat that can cause organ failure and ultimately death.

“The described deadly heat pathways can be triggered anytime that climatic conditions result in hyperthermia, highlighting that everyone can be at risk. … The health impacts of heat waves could be reduced through social adaptations that limit heat exposure (eg, alert systems, air conditioning, and greening cities). Although such protective measures have been effectively used in the past, they may not be affordable for all of humanity, and even among those who can afford them, a warming world will recurrently “imprison people” indoors and may turn infrastructure failures (eg, power outages) into catastrophic events.”[3]

We have evolved to survive in the relatively narrow band of atmospheric temperatures that have prevailed on Earth in the last 300,000 years or so. During that time, and through the last 12,000 years—known to geologists as the Holocene Epoch—more deaths were caused by exposure to cold weather than hot, simply because long cold winters have been more common than very hot summers. Now, global warming is shifting the balance towards higher temperatures, making it more likely that people will face dangerous heat. Extreme temperatures that only occurred once in 50 years in preindustrial times will occur 9 times as often if the global average temperature rises 1.5°C; 14 times as often if it rises 2.0°C; and 40 times as often if it rises 4.0C°.[4]

Heat waves are increasing in frequency, duration, and intensity, and affecting more people every year.

“Globally, climate change added on average 41 additional days of dangerous heat in 2024 that threatened people’s health…. The countries that experienced the highest number of dangerous heat days are overwhelmingly small island and developing states, who are highly vulnerable and considered to be on the frontlines of climate change.”[5]

Infants and older adults face the greatest risks.

“Adults older than 65 years and infants younger than 1 year, for whom extreme heat can be particularly life-threatening, are now exposed to twice as many heatwave days as they would have experienced in 1986–2005…. Over 60% of the days that reached health-threatening high temperatures in 2020 were made more than twice as likely to occur due to anthropogenic climate change and heat related deaths of people older than 65 years increased by 85% compared with 1990–2000.”[6]

It’s usually estimated that close to half a million people have died of heat related causes every year since 2000,[7] but since heat mortality statistics for many countries range from inadequate to nonexistent, it’s likely that the real death toll is much higher.

And it is growing fast. A study of trends in 748 cities in 46 countries found that “even under warming levels in line with the Paris agreement (1.5–2 °C), non-extreme seasons are becoming increasingly rare for most locations while uncharted territories are first becoming the new extremes and then eventually regular.”[8] The Lancet projects that even if the average global temperature increase is kept under 2ºC, the annual number of heat-related deaths will increase 370% by 2050.[9]

A Rutgers University study finds that if greenhouse gas emissions remain at current levels, by 2100 heat stress from combinations of high humidity and heat will affect 1.2 billion people a year, particularly outdoor workers and the elderly. That’s more than four times the number of people affected by heat stress today and more than 12 times the number who would have been affected without global warming.[10]

During their lifetimes, today’s children will directly experience up to seven times as many extreme heat events as those born in 1960, even if the Paris Agreement targets are met. “Under a 1.5 °C pathway, 52% of people born in 2020 will experience unprecedented lifetime exposure to heatwaves. If global warming reaches 3.5 °C by 2100, this fraction rises to 92% for heatwaves, 29% for crop failures and 14% for river floods.”[11]

Heat domes, an intense form of heat wave that occurs when the high-altitude jet stream stalls over a region for days or weeks, have tripled in frequency since the 1950s. A 2025 study warns that current climate models don’t take this increase into account, so predictions of extreme summer heat (including those described above) may understate the danger.[12]

Between May 2024 and May 2025, heat waves affected every country in the world, and 4 billion people—about 49% of the global population—experienced at least 30 additional days of extreme heat, compared to the 1991-2020 period.[13] The old and the weak were most severely affected.

“Among older adults and people with pre-existing medical conditions, extreme heat increases the risk of cardiovascular strain, respiratory distress, and premature death. Low-income and marginalized communities often lack access to cooling, healthcare, and safe housing, exacerbating their exposure while limiting their ability to recover from heat-related illness and other impacts. Outdoor workers and people working indoors without cooling face heightened occupational risks, including dehydration, heat stress, and reduced productivity.”[14]

A recent analysis found that, between 2020 and 2024, the number of days considered dangerously hot for pregnant individuals doubled in 90% of countries and 63% of cities, notably in the Caribbean, and parts of Central and South America, the Pacific Islands, Southeast Asia, and sub-Saharan Africa.[15]

As Dr. Mora and his associates write, “our choices for deadly heat are now between more of it or a lot more of it.”[16]

Attribution: Murderers in Boardrooms

Until recently, reports on extreme weather carried a routine disclaimer to the effect that while such events would become more common with global warming it was impossible to attribute any specific event to climate change. That particular hurricane or heat wave or drought or wildfire might just have been an example of normal climate variation. The merchants of doubt of course seized on that uncertainty to declare there was nothing to worry about.

That’s no longer the case. The discipline known as Extreme Event Attribution has made huge strides in determining whether specific events are caused climate change. Complex mathematical tools are required, but in general a detailed weather history of the area affected is prepared and input to a massive computer climate simulation that is run thousands of times, with and without climate change, to see how likely the actual event was.[17]

The first such study, published in 2004, showed that the European heat wave of 2003 was made twice as likely by climate change. By 2024, 735 extreme weather events had been the subjects of 612 attribution studies, with these results:

Climate change impact Events
More severe or more likely 547 (73.6%}
No influence 71 (9.6%)
Less severe or less likely 64 (8.7%)
Inconclusive 53 (7.2%)

These results include cases in which scientists found that the extreme event would have been “virtually impossible” without human influence. [18]

Extreme Event Attribution took a major leap forward in 2025, with a study of 213 heatwaves between 2000 and 2023. In addition to proving that the heatwaves were made much more likely by climate change, it shows how much each major fossil fuel and cement producer contributed to the rise in deadly heat.

Using the scientifically proven fact that greenhouse gas emissions are driving climate change, and public data from 180 “carbon majors” that together have accounted for 60% of cumulative anthropogenic emissions since 1850, the researchers found:

That heatwaves became about 20 times more likely during 2000–2009, and about 200 times more likely during 2010–2019.
That a quarter of those heatwaves (55) were made at least 10,000 times more likely by climate change —e.g. they were “virtually impossible” without it.
That any one of the carbon majors, even the smallest, produced enough emissions to cause several of the ‘10,000 times more likely’ events.[19]
About half of the emissions caused by the 180 carbon majors came from just 14 corporations and state-owned producers: the state-owned companies in the former Soviet Union and their successors, People’s Republic of China for coal, Saudi Aramco, Gazprom, ExxonMobil, Chevron, National Iranian Oil Company, BP, Shell, India for coal, Pemex, CHN Energy, and People’s Republic of China for cement.

“There are heatwaves that the carbon majors have made at least 10,000 times more likely compared with preindustrial levels, and which would have otherwise been virtually impossible without anthropogenic influence. Even relatively minor shares in total emissions lead to very substantial increases in the frequency of these events.” [20]

The emissions of each of the 14 largest carbon majors were enough to cause over 50 heat waves that would have been virtually impossible without climate change. Even the smallest of the 180, Russian coal miner Elgaugol, produced enough CO2 to cause 16 otherwise impossible extreme heat events.

In a sense, this is not a surprise. The science on climate change is very robust, and scientists have long identified fossil fuel and cement production as primary sources of the emissions that are driving climate change.

Nevertheless, this study reveals the smoking gun. It proves that a few entities are directly responsible for the unprecedented increase in deadly heatwaves in our time, that even the smallest ones are pushing our climate over the brink.

There is, we can now say with certainty, a prima facie case that what Frederick Engels long ago called social murder is being perpetrated, and that the top decision makers in a handful of global organisations are guilty.

Notes

[1] Kristie L. Ebi, et al., “Hot Weather and Heat Extremes: Health Risks,” The Lancet, August 21, 2021.

[2] Jay Lemery and Paul Auerbach, Enviromedics: The Impact of Climate Change on Human Health, (Rowman & Littlefield, 2017), 21.

[3] Camilo Mora et al., “Twenty-Seven Ways a Heat Wave Can Kill You: Deadly Heat in the Era of Climate Change,” Circulation: Cardiovascular Quality and Outcomes, November 9, 2017.

[4] Jonathan Gregory, Matt Palmer and Ed Hawkins, “Climate Change 2021—The Physical Science Basis, Key Points,” Climate Lab Book, February 25, 2022.

[5] World Weather Attribution, “When Risks Become Reality: Extreme Weather In 2024,” December 27, 2024.

[6] Marina Romanello et al., The Lancet Countdown on health and climate change, 2023.

[7] John Nairna and Simon J. Mason, “Extreme heat and heatwaves: hazard awareness and impact mitigation,” The Lancet Planetary Health, July 7, 2025.

[8] Samuel Lüthi et al., “Rapid increase in the risk of heat-related mortality,” Nature Communications, August 24 2023.

[9] Romanello, The Lancet Countdown 2023.

[10] Dawei Li, Jiacan Yuan and Robert Kopp, “Escalating global exposure to compound heat-humidity extremes with warming, Environmental Research Letters, 2020.

[11] Luke Grant et al., “Global emergence of unprecedented lifetime exposure to climate extremes,” Nature, May 7, 2025.

[12] Xueke Li et al., “Increased frequency of planetary wave resonance events over the past half-century,” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences June 16, 2025.

[13] Joseph Giguere, et al., Climate Change and the Escalation of Global Extreme Heat. (Climate Central, Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre, World Weather Attribution, 2025), 8.

[14] Giguere, Climate Change, 8.

[15] Climate Central, Climate change increasing pregnancy risks around the world due to extreme heat, May 14, 2025.

[16] Mora. “27 Ways.”

[17] Ayesha Tandon, Q&A: The evolving science of ‘extreme weather attribution’, Carbon Brief, November 18, 2024.

[18] Robert McSweeney and Ayesha Tandon, “Mapped: How climate change affects extreme weather around the world,” CarbonBrief, November 18, 2024.

[19] Yann Quilcaille et al., “Systematic attribution of heatwaves to the emissions of carbon majors,” Nature, September 11, 2025, 392-98; Karsten Haustein et al., “Heatwaves linked to emissions of individual fossil-fuel and cement producers,” Nature, September 10, 2025, 319-20.

[20] Quilcaille, Systematic Attribution,” 395-6.

https://climateandcapitalism.com/2025/0 ... hat-kills/

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Earth. (Photo: climatechange20.commons.gc.cuny.edu)

North worsens tropical catastrophe
By Jomo Kwame Sundaram (Posted Sep 16, 2025)

Originally published: JOMO on September 8, 2025 (more by JOMO) |

Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions have risen over the last two centuries, with current and accumulated emissions per capita from rich nations greatly exceeding those of the Global South.

Tropical vulnerability
The last six millennia have seen much higher ‘carrying capacities’, soil fertility, population densities, and urbanisation in the tropics than in the temperate zone.

Most of the world’s population lives in tropical and subtropical areas in developing nations, now increasingly threatened by planetary heating.

Different environments, geographies, ecologies and means affect vulnerability to planetary heating. Climate change’s effects vary considerably, especially between tropical and temperate regions.

Extreme weather events—cyclones, hurricanes, or typhoons—are generally much more severe in the tropics, which are also much more vulnerable to planetary heating.

Although they have emitted relatively less GHGs per capita, tropical developing countries must now adapt much more to planetary heating and its consequences.

Many rural livelihoods have become increasingly unviable, forcing ‘climate refugees’ to move away. Increasing numbers in the countryside have little choice but to leave.

Worse, economic and technological changes of recent decades have limited job creation in many developing countries, causing employment to fall further behind labour force growth.

Unequal development has also worsened climate injustice. Adaptation efforts are far more urgent in the tropics as planetary heating has damaged these regions much more.

Technological solutions?
While science may offer solutions, innovation has become increasingly commercialised for profit. Previously, developing countries could negotiate technology transfer agreements, but this option is becoming less available.

Strengthened intellectual property rights (IPRs) limit technology transfer, innovation, and development. The World Trade Organization (WTO) greatly increased the scope of IPRs in 1995 with its new Trade-Related Intellectual Property Rights (TRIPS) provisions.

Thus, access to technology depends increasingly on ability to pay and getting government permission, slowing climate action in the Global South. Financial constraints doubly handicap the worst off.

Despite rapidly mounting deaths due to the unprecedented COVID-19 pandemic, European governments refused to honour the West’s public health exception (PHE) concession in 2001 to restart WTO ministerial talks after the 1999 Seattle debacle.

Instead of implementing the TRIPS PHE as the pandemic quickly spread, Europeans dragged out negotiations until a poor compromise was reached years after the pandemic had been officially declared and millions had died worldwide.

With the second Trump administration withdrawing again from the World Health Organization (WHO) and cutting research funding, tropical threats will continue to dominate the WHO list of neglected diseases.

Climate finance inadequate
Citing the 2008 global financial crisis (GFC), rich nations claimed they could only afford to contribute a hundred billion dollars annually to climate finance for developing countries in line with the sustainable development principle of ‘common but differentiated responsibility’.

This hundred-billion-dollar promise was made before the 2009 Copenhagen Conference of the Parties (COP) to secure support for a significant new climate agreement after the U.S. Senate rejected the Kyoto Protocol before the end of the 20th century.

Rich nations promised to raise their concessional climate finance contributions from 2020 after recovery from the recession following the GFC. However, official development assistance has declined while military spending pledges have risen sharply.

The rich OECD nations now claim that the hundred-billion-dollar climate finance promise has been met with some new ‘creative accounting’, including Italian government funding support for a commercial gelateria chain abroad!

In recent climate finance talks, Western governments increasingly insist that only mitigation funding should qualify as climate finance, claiming adaptation efforts do not slow planetary heating.

Meanwhile, reparations funds for ‘losses and damages’ remain embarrassingly low. Worse, in recent years, much of the West has abandoned specific promises to slow planetary heating.

Despite being among the greatest GHG emitters per capita, the USA has made the least progress. The two Trump administrations’ aggressive reversals of modest earlier U.S. commitments have further reduced the negligible progress so far.

In late 2021, the Glasgow climate COP pledged to end coal burning for energy. But less than half a year later, the West abandoned this promise to block energy imports from Russia after it invaded Ukraine.

Concessional to commercial finance
Responding to developing countries’ demands for more financial resources on concessional terms to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and address the climate crisis, World Bank president Jim Kim promoted the ‘from billions to trillions’ financing slogan.

The catchphrase was used to urge developing countries to take much more commercial loans as access to concessional finance declined and borrowing terms tightened.

With lower interest rates in the West due to unconventional monetary policies following the 2008 GFC, many developing nations increased borrowing until interest rates were sharply raised from early 2022.

Funds leaving developing countries in great haste precipitated widespread debt distress, especially in many poorer developing countries. Thus, purported market financial solutions compounded rather than mitigated the climate crisis.

Meanwhile, growing geopolitical hostilities, leading to what some consider a new Cold War, are accelerating planetary heating and further threatening tropical ecologies, rural livelihoods, and well-being.

https://mronline.org/2025/09/16/north-w ... tastrophe/

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Africa Climate Summit Reflections Part 2: The Youth Are Getting Restless…and That’s a Good Thing
Anthony Karefa Rogers-Wright 17 Sep 2025

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“The youth are getting restless. I can't hear you, Let them hear you all the way to Washington, The youth are getting restless, Own creation, The Youth are Getting Restless, And once again a nation, I and I” - Bad Brains

Last week, my piece on the second Africa Climate Summit (ACS2) focused on the specter of a new phase of African neocolonialism, technocrats and cryptocolonizers who used the summit to promote a series of false climate solutions including, but not limited to, rendering the continent into a sink for carbon markets as a well as artificial intelligence technology. Africa, irrefutably, is the continent in possession of the most valuable natural resources in the world from its minerals, forests and biodiversity, to its people, which is why they all continue to be pillaged to fuel the engine of global racial capitalism. That said, Africa’s most precious and valuable resource is its abundance of young people. In fact, by 2035 the continent will possess the most young people in the world. That’s why it was encouraging that before ACS2 commenced, young people from the continent held a pre-summit, the Africa Youth Climate Assembly, to develop their approach to, and demands for climate justice ahead of the global climate summit, COP 30, that will take place in Brazil later this year.

At the conclusion of the ACS2 Youth Summit, the participants released a declaration that demonstrates both promise and concern for how African youth are approaching the intensifying climate crisis. For instance, the declaration stipulates, “Conscious of the intersections between climate change, peace, and security, we highlight that climate-induced migration and competition over scarce resources fuel instability across the Sahel, Horn of Africa, and other vulnerable regions. Youth and other vulnerable communities are often deprived of alternatives, are left vulnerable to forced displacement, radicalization, and poverty traps.”

It’s irrefutable that resource extraction will continue to engender conflict, suffering, and inequity across the continent without concerted and intentional interventions.,. That’s why it’s unfortunate that the ACS2 Youth Summit declaration also calls for, “the amplification of the adoption of Artificial Intelligence (AI) and other emerging technologies to accelerate climate solutions across Africa from predictive climate modeling and disaster risk reduction, to renewable energy management, sustainable agriculture, and biodiversity monitoring,” given that AI and associated data centers are arguably the most resource intensive entities the world over, especially in the use of energy and water.

Upon reviewing the ACS2 Youth Summit declaration I found myself asking where this affinity for a technology that is being utilized to increase surveillance on Black bodies, incessantly murder Palestinians, and overall provide the capitalist dictatorship with yet another tool to suppress the masses comes from. I sat down with two incredible and precocious young people to ask this question and ascertain the demands of the more radical elements of youth attending ACS2 - “Rebecca” from Uganda and “Resilient Mboya” from Kenya (both asked to use aliases for the interview). Both stressed that Western colonial actors, especially multinational Nongovernmental Organizations (NGOs) have been taking advantage of African youth for decades and using them as props for their own benefit. Both also stressed the need for more connection and solidarity with Africans throughout the diaspora who can better advise Africans on the continent about Western machinations to keep the continent dependent rather than liberated.

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“Resilent Mboya” with BAP member Anthony Karefa Rogers-Wright at the Africa Youth Climate Assembly

Both also pointed out that far too many African youth seek to leave the continent to further their education and many return with petty bourgeois values that open the door for colonial influences and manipulation. This made me think of the sage words once offered by Amilcar Cabral, “Oppose among the young, especially those over 20, the mania for leaving the country so as to study elsewhere, the blind ambition to acquire a degree, the complex of inferiority and the mistaken idea which leads to the belief that those who study or take courses will thereby become privileged in our country tomorrow.” At the same time, Cabral also encouraged a pedagogy of patience and understanding as the correct approach to winning people over and strengthening the movement. To this end, it was rhapsodic that both “Rebecca” and “Resilient Mboya” were both familiar with the work of Black Alliance for Peace (BAP) and, particularly, BAP founder, Ajamu Baraka’s recent trip to Kenya

So what then is our role as African people in the diaspora to ensure African youth are neither corrupted, nor seduced by opiates of so-called western values that seek nothing more than to intercede against African unity and the development of a robust and radical African youth movement? The 1969 League of Revolutionary Black Workers’ Black Manifesto developed by James Forman and others, is instructive for answers to this inquiry, “Howard Moore and I traveled extensively in Tanzania and Zambia. We talked to high, very high, governmental officials. We told them there were many black people in the United States who were willing to come and work in Africa. All these government officials who were part of the leadership in their respective governments , said they wanted us to send as many skilled people that we could contact.” This, of course, cannot be done with even a semblance of paternalism lest we repeat some of the past errors including some colonial tendencies of the diaspora.

Instead, it is incumbent upon us as Africans in the diaspora to do our part to improve the material conditions on the continent by pointing out the myriad and massive contradictions of our own. This is precisely why I brought resources showcasing BAP’s U.S Out of Africa initiatives as well as the nascent and emerging work of BAP’s North-South Project for People(s) Centered Human RIghts. Climate change, afterall, is first and foremost an issue of human rights, which is something the vast majority of Africa Youth Climate Assembly attendees articulated in the various panels and discussions I attended.

As Africans, there can be no division between our work in the United States, Europe, the Caribbean, South America, and the work being carried out by the youth on the continent. We must resist the forces of the Black Misleadership class in the diaspora as a function of providing the youth on the continent with the skills and resources that require them to confront and dismantle the forces of the Black Misleadership class on the continent, who, as I noted in my previous piece on my time in Africa, are working in tandem with colonizers to ensure Africa is for sale rather than putting Africa to be in a position to be open for the business of self determination and liberation. We not only owe this to ourselves, as well as all Africans around the world, we also especially owe this to the African youth on the continent as they prepare to bring the full force of their brilliance and demands to COP 30. We must furnish them with all they need to arrive in Brazil with the sage aphorism:

No Compromise

No Retreat

You can listen to my interview with “Rebecca” and “Resilient Mboya” here. https://soundcloud.com/anthony-rogers-w ... 6cd3ca7b8b

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Re: The Long Ecological Revolution

Post by blindpig » Fri Sep 19, 2025 3:40 pm

Charlie Kirk was a fossil fuel industry plant

Big Oil's money gave Kirk a larger platform to spread baseless climate conspiracy theories—as well as other extremist views.
Emily Atkin
Sep 18, 2025

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Source: Getty Images

The term “plant” is often used to describe someone whose success was not solely the result of a grassroots movement, but instead bolstered by powerful corporate interests who secretly poured massive amounts of money into ensuring their fame.

For example: Charlie Kirk was a fossil fuel industry plant. The right-wing activist murdered last week built his massive platform for racism, sexism, transphobia and climate denial in part by using anonymous funding from Big Oil.

Turning Point USA, the group Kirk founded to ignite a culture war on college campuses, has managed to hide much of its funding sources. Roughly half of the group’s $40 million in income in 2020 came from 10 anonymous donors, NBC News reported.

But in 2017, Kirk admitted that some of the group’s anonymous donors “are in the fossil fuel space.” Speaking to The New Yorker’s Jane Mayer, Kirk disclosed that he’d fundraised for TPUSA at the annual meeting of the Independent Petroleum Association of America (IPAA), as well as the 2017 board meeting of the National Mining Association.

In those meetings, Kirk promised oil and gas companies he’d fight “the myth that fossil fuels are dirty,” and target the “leftist professors” on college campuses who “perpetuated” the “myth.”

The meetings “went great,” Kirk told Mayer. The IPAA’s president, Barry Russell, wound up joining TPUSA’s advisory council, where he remains today. (Kirk had said that most advisory council members are also TPUSA donors).

How Kirk tried to re-popularize climate denial
Over the next nine years, Kirk worked to chip away at young Americans’ rising concerns about climate change. He did this by claiming climate science is still debated—and then peddling the conspiracy theory that all climate policies are a Democratic bid for government control.

“A tyrant’s fantasy is to have a massive green economy transition,” he said in 2023. “You can get rid of private property, you can control people’s movements. It’s fundamentally the abolition of civilization as we know it.”

To justify his claim that climate science is unsettled, Kirk would often cite “experts” who downplay the seriousness of planetary heating. For example, in 2023, Kirk claimed climate science is “debated” because “a Nobel prize winning scientist recently came out and said there is no real climate crisis.” Kirk also cited the opinions of John Coleman, the now-deceased founder of the Weather Channel, as evidence that climate change is a hoax.

But the experts Kirk cited were almost always unqualified. For example, Coleman was a meteorologist, not a climate scientist, and his claims were frequently debunked by publishing climate scientists. The Nobel-Prize-winning scientist Kirk referenced, John Clauser, is not a climate scientist, and won the Nobel for physics in the 1970s. No other Nobel Prize-winning physicist denies mainstream climate science; in fact, some of them are climate scientists themselves.

Coincidentally, Kirk never considered the opinions of publishing climate scientists to be credible. Instead, he reflexively dismissed their warnings as "garbage … designed for one thing: power and control.”

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A YouTube caption for one of Kirk’s videos calls climate change “nonsense” and “boulder dash” [sic]

Kirk’s final climate segment
Kirk’s continued to frame climate change as a conspiracy in an interview with Trump’s Secretary of Energy Chris Wright three weeks before his death.

In the interview, Kirk and Wright spoke about the Department of Energy’s recently-released 151-page report claiming climate change is not a serious problem. That report was put together by five contrarian scientists personally recruited by Wright, a former fracking executive.

Kirk praised the report, and dismissed all criticism against it as politically motivated. “We think this is all politicized,” Kirk said. “This is driven towards a environmentalist agenda that is trying to weaken American energy dominance.”

Wright agreed, and said all the critics of his climate report only took issue with who wrote it—not the data within it. “They want to impugn the writers or impugn the way we reference people,” Wright said. “They want to find little things. What we want to talk about is the data.”

This, however, was objectively false. The data within Wright’s report was meticulously criticized by 85 publishing climate scientists, who issued a 439-page rebuttal pointing out various misrepresentations, messy citations, cherry-picking, and factual errors. In addition, many of the scientists cited in Wright’s report complained that their data was misrepresented, and explained their complaints in detail.

Perhaps the most mind-boggling part of Kirk’s final climate interview, however, was the argument he used to claim there can be no such thing as a scientific consensus about climate change.

”Science does not have consensus,” he said. “This is a very important thing. Right? Science says nothing. Scientists say things. Okay? Science never talks. Science is silent. This is a good thing that could apply to everything.”

Kirk was certainly correct that scientists say things. But over the course of his life, Kirk was set on ignoring most of them. For example, the vast majority of publishing climate scientists have been saying the same thing over and over for decades: That heat-trapping pollution from fossil fuels, industrial agriculture, and deforestation is steadily raising the average temperature of the planet—and that the warming poses an existential threat to human, animal and plant life.

Kirk ignored those scientists for a simple reason: Because listening to them would mean accepting that fossil fuels harm people. Neither Kirk nor his donors could accept that reality.

The inseparable connection between climate denial and right-wing extremism
The point of this newsletter is not to claim that Kirk was paid by the fossil fuel industry to say things he didn’t believe about climate change. I think most online political commentators genuinely believe what they’re saying, no matter who they’re funded by.

The point is to reinforce what has been true for decades: the fossil fuel industry is behind most of the climate disinformation you see and hear today.

Big Oil has spent billions sowing doubt about the reality and severity of climate change. They’ve done this for one reason: Solving climate change would require using less of their product, and using less of their product would hurt their bottom line.

Pretty much everyone with a massive following who spreads climate denial derives money or power from fossil fuels. The sooner everyone understands that, the better.

The other point here is to remind everyone about the inseparable connection between climate denial and other types of right-wing extremism. Often, you’ll hear climate activists debate whether it’s a good idea to get involved in larger movements for justice, or whether it’s better to just “stay in their lane” of climate policy.

The opposition to climate action is not having that debate. Instead, they are funding right-wing extremists who say things like the Civil Rights Act was "huge mistake;” that Supreme Court Justice Ketanji Brown Jackson was "a diversity hire;" that trans people are responsible for inflation; and that Taylor Swift should "submit to [her] husband." As long as “climate change is fake” is part of that rhetoric, they don’t care what the rest of it looks like.

Racism, sexism, and transphobia is being used to build the climate denier base. If you want climate action, you can’t pick and choose which you fight back against.

https://heated.world/p/charlie-kirks-ex ... dium=email

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World’s largest offshore wind monopoly reports record crash

Is the green stock market bubble starting to burst?
Ella Rule

Monday 1 September 2025

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Leaving aside the ever-present question of the environmentally-devastating wars the imperialists need to wage to maintain their hold over the world’s people and resources, and despite huge subsidies to monopoly capital to deliver a ‘green transition’, it is clear that the capitalist system is incapable of changing its ways as far as the environment is concerned. It is simply not possible for corporations, or the governments that rule on their behalf, to prioritise long-term planning over short-term profitability.

Ørsted, the Danish company which controls 25 percent of the global offshore wind market share, reported a record loss of 30 percent of its share value in early August 2025. The company said it was negatively affected by US market ‘adversity’.

US capital exacts energy market share from EU sidekicks
The crash was precipitated by the US decision to halt all offshore wind leases, in order to support US oil and gas monopolies. The move means that Ørsted’s assets in the USA are not only useless, but also unsellable. The stocks of other European energy monopolies have also been negatively affected since the US policy was announced, while US energy monopolies benefited.

The USA is not a major global player in wind energy, a market dominated by China and Europe. More than 50 percent of all offshore wind installations are found in China, 45.2 percent in Europe (primarily Britain and Germany), and only 0.2 percent in North America.

The oil monopolies that form part of the US ‘deep state’ are only too keen to see off green competition and expand the sale of their own dirty products. Since clean energy needs to build new infrastructure, whereas dirty energy can rely to a considerable extent on the old, it follows that clean is more expensive to produce. Therefore, since the paramount need under capitalism is to maximise profit, this gives dirty energy a considerable advantage.

Europe, not having much in the way of home-grown oil production, is more interested in developing green energy production, which in the long run, when the necessary infrastructure is securely in place, will be more economical; but the oil monopolies backed by the US government have no scruples in sabotaging European efforts in that direction by undercutting them on price, bankrupting their European competitor enterprises, strangling the baby in its cot before it is mature enough to compete.

Monopoly demands that the taxpayer picks up the bill
To absorb the losses, Ørsted will try to raise around $5bn by selling its onshore business and divesting from its offshore wind farms in Taiwan and Britain’s Hornsea 3, its largest project, due to be completed in 2027.

Ørsted also plans a $9.4bn rights issue to absorb the losses, meaning that it will offer shareholders new shares at discounted prices, but existing shares will be devalued as a result.

In other words, shareholders will be forced to purchase the newly issued shares if they do not want to lose on the stake granted by their prior investments. The financial monopoly Morgan Stanley will underwrite any unsold shares. The funds will be used to service debt and cover costs for the ongoing Sunrise Wind project in the USA, which Ørsted failed to sell.

The biggest investor in Ørsted is the Danish state, with a 50.1 percent stake. Since it intends to maintain this stake, this means that the Ørsted’s losses will be paid in large part by the Danish taxpayers. The move is being justified by Denmark’s finance minister as necessary to “reduce dependence on Russia” and to pursue the “green transition”.

In fact, reducing reliance on Russian gas is neither here nor there since all that has happened is that it has increased reliance on much more expensive and polluting liquefied natural gas (LNG) from the USA. Perhaps the rhetoric about decreasing reliance on Russia is intended to signal to the USA that it should stop trying to sabotage European moves towards green energy.

US imperialism is most unlikely to be moved. The reality is that for European imperialism, both Russia and the USA are countries from which it would prefer to be independent – Russia because Europe wants to subjugate it and America because it consistently subordinates European interests to its own.

Green Deal and drive to war
The European Union has fuelled speculation in the green energy industry. The REPowerEU plan of 2022 aims to make Europe independent of Russian fossil fuels and is part of the EU’s Green Deal of 2020. The similarly named ReArm Europe plan of 2025, on the other hand, aims to prepare for war on Russia.

According to the Green Deal, the EU aims to become climate-neutral by 2050 by mobilising more than €1tn in investments. ReArm, on the other hand, proposes to mobilise €800bn for the war industry by 2030. €150bn worth of loans have already been spent, in part to continue arming Nato’s Ukrainian proxy forces with US weapons at the expense of Europe’s working class.

It’s hard to imagine anything less ‘climate neutral’ than the war industry that is being expanded in Europe at breakneck speed in the expectation of engaging in a deadly exchange of each side’s lethal products in a forthcoming war! Will the weapons have engraved on them the slogan ‘No carbon was released into the atmosphere in the production of this bomb’?

What this shows is that under capitalism it is not only the profit motive hampering the move the green energy but also the inevitability of war, as capitalists desperate to maintain a healthy rate of profit in the midst of an unrelenting crisis of overproduction resort to war after war.

What is true is that both industries (green energy and arms) demand extremely large upfront capital investments that detract from profit. This means that state involvement is always required for these monopolies to be able to operate at even an average rate of profit.

Monopoly capital is not sustainable
Already in 2023, Siemens Energy required a €7.5bn bailout from the German government to support its wind turbine manufacturing. That same year in Britain, the price paid by the government for offshore wind power was increased by around 50 percent to entice investment and ensure profitability at the expense of British taxpayers, while corporate propaganda insisted that private investments would lower bills!

As technology progresses, ever larger amounts of capital are required for enterprises, while the turnover rate becomes proportionally slower and the profit rate declines (Ørsted revised its return on capital employed forecast from 13 percent to 11 percent). This makes capitalists reluctant to invest productively and makes capital vulnerable to disruptions in the market (supply chain issues, class struggle, inflation) and increasingly reliant on state intervention.

The bourgeois state therefore forces the working class to collectively subsidise the private monopolies, either at the expense of their living standards or, in the final instance, by serving as foot soldiers in imperialist wars.

In these conditions, liberal notions of free-market competition have become outdated romantic fantasies, and the use of state force (either economic or military) to redefine existing markets is what determines the fate of monopolies, as they desperately seek to maintain profitability and expand investment opportunities for their capital.

The superiority of the socialist system is evident in its ability to make these capital-intensive industries operate without turning a profit, either in the short or long term, because the motivator of production is not profit but the needs of the people both present and future. This means that key heavy industries can operate at a loss – ie, at the expense of current consumption – as long as it is all done in the interests of the people, and after full consultation through the planning commission.

This is also the secret to China’s success, since China, because of the continuing rule of the Communist party, is able to facilitate non-profit production where necessary in the interests of the people, in spite of the prevalence of commodity production in its market economy.

It is only the ability to organise production on a rational basis that will end the cycles of inflation, war and unemployment. For this to be possible, it is necessary to change the relations of production and supersede profit as the motive of production.

In other words, it is necessary for the organised working class and its vanguard to take over from the bourgeoisie’s outmoded way of ruling our economy and society.

https://thecommunists.org/2025/09/01/ne ... ord-crash/

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Global water cycle: increasingly erratic and extreme
September 18, 2025

Swinging between deluge and drought, two-thirds of river networks have too much or too little water

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The water cycle has become increasingly erratic and extreme, swinging between deluge and drought, according to a new report from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) that highlights the cascading impacts of too much or too little water on economies and society.

The State of Global Water Resources report says only about one-third of the global river basins had “normal” conditions in 2024. The rest were either above or below normal – the sixth consecutive year of clear imbalance.

2024 was the third straight year with widespread glacier loss across all regions. Many small-glacier regions have already reached or are about to pass the so-called peak water point – when a glacier’s melting reaches its maximum annual runoff, after which this decreases due to glacier shrinkage.
Extreme Events: Africa’s tropical zone experienced unusually heavy rainfall in 2024 compared to their historical norms, resulting in approximately 2,500 fatalities and 4 million people displaced. Europe experienced its most extensive flooding since 2013, with one-third of the river networks exceeding high flood thresholds. Asia and the Pacific were hit by record-breaking rainfall and tropical cyclones, resulting in over 1,000 deaths. Brazil experienced simultaneous extremes, with catastrophic flooding in the south of the country taking 183 lives and continuation of the 2023 drought in the Amazon basin, affecting 59% of the country’s territory.
The Amazon Basin and other parts of South America, as well as southern Africa were gripped by severe drought in 2024, whilst there were wetter-than-normal conditions in central, western and eastern Africa, parts of Asia and Central Europe, it says.

An estimated 3.6 billion people face inadequate access to water at least a month per year and this is expected to increase to more than 5 billion by 2050, according to UN Water, and the world falling far short of Sustainable Development Goal 6 on water and sanitation.

Anomalies of mean river discharge for the year 2024 compared to the period 1991–2020, derived from the modelled river discharge data obtained from an ensemble of 12 GHMS simulations.

Climatic Conditions: The year 2024 was the hottest year on record and began with an El Niño event which impacted major river basins. It contributed to droughts in northern South America and the Amazon Basin and southern Africa. It was wetter-than-average in Central and western Africa, the Lake Victoria basin in Africa, Kazakhstan and Southern Russia, Central Europe, Pakistan and Northern India, Southern Iran, and North-Eastern China

Rivers and lakes: In the past six years only about one-third of the global river catchment area had normal discharge conditions compared to the 1991-2020 average. This means that two thirds have too much or too little water – reflecting the increasingly erratic hydrological cycle. There was much below-normal discharge across key river basins including the Amazon, São Francisco, Paraná, and Orinoco in South America, and the Zambezi, Limpopo, Okavango, Orange basins in southern Africa.

Extensive flooding occurred in West African basins in Senegal, Niger, Lake Chad, Volta). There was above normal river discharge across Central Europe and parts of Asia, swelling major basins including the Danube, Ganges, Godavari, and Indus. Nearly all out of selected 75 main lakes across the globe saw above or much above normal temperatures in July, affecting water quality.

Reservoir inflows, groundwater, soil moisture and evapotranspiration trends highlighted regional contrasts, with recharge in wetter areas such as parts of Europe and India, but persistent deficits in parts of Africa, the Americas, and Australia. Over-extraction of groundwater continued to be a problem in some areas, reducing future water availability for communities and ecosystems and further stressing global water resources. Only 38% of the wells (out of 37 406 from 47 countries which submitted groundwater data) had normal levels – the rest were too much or too little.

Glaciers: 2024 was the third consecutive year on record where there was widespread ice loss across all glaciated regions: with 450 Gt lost – the equivalent of a huge block of ice 7 kilometers tall, 7 km wide, and 7 km deep, or enough water to fill 180 million Olympic swimming pools. That much meltwater adds about 1.2 millimetres to global sea level in a single year, contributing to flooding risk for hundreds of millions of people living in coastal zones. Record mass loss occurred in Scandinavia, Svalbard, and North Asia, while some regions like the Canadian Arctic and Greenland periphery saw more moderate losses. Nearer the Tropics, Colombian glaciers lost 5% in 2024.

(Adapted from materials provided by the World Meteorological Organization, September 18, 2025)

https://climateandcapitalism.com/2025/0 ... d-extreme/

Wildfire smoke impact far greater than estimates: thousands killed
September 19, 2025

Study shows US death toll could reach 70,000 a year by 2050

Image

Wildfires burning across Canada and the Western United States are spewing smoke over millions of Americans, with health impacts far greater than scientists previously estimated.
Highlights of “Wildfire smoke exposure and mortality burden in the US under climate change,” Nature, September 18, 2025
Stanford researchers estimate wildfire smoke emissions caused 41,380 excess deaths per year during 2011 to 2020.
Rising temperatures could increase U.S. deaths from wildfire smoke more than 70% by 2050.
Aggressively cutting greenhouse gas emissions could prevent tens of thousands of deaths from climate-related smoke waves.
The economic cost of deaths from wildfire smoke with roughly 2°C of warming may exceed costs from all other climate-driven damages in the U.S. combined.
Although wildfires have long been part of life in the Western U.S., warmer, drier conditions are fueling bigger blazes that occur more often and for longer. Smoke from these blazes is spreading farther and lingering longer than in the past. In a Sept. 18 study in Nature, Stanford University researchers estimate that continued global warming could lead to about 30,000 additional deaths each year nationwide by 2050, as climate-driven increases in fire activity generate more smoke pollution across North America.

The researchers found no U.S. community is safe from smoke exposure. When monetized, deaths related to wildfire smoke could reach $608 billion in annual damages by 2050 under a business-as-usual emissions scenario where global temperatures rise about 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels. That estimated toll surpasses current estimates of economic costs from all other climate-driven damages in the U.S. combined, including temperature-related deaths, agricultural losses, and storm damage.

“What we see, and this is consistent with what others find, is a nationwide increase in wildfire smoke,” said lead study author Minghao Qiu. “There are larger increases on the West Coast, but there’s also long-range transport of wildfire smoke across the country, including massive recent smoke events in the Eastern and Midwestern U.S. from Canadian fires.”

Deaths from wildfire smoke result from inhaling a complex mix of chemicals. Wildfires can expose large numbers of people to these toxic pollutants for days or weeks at a time, contributing to deaths up to three years after the initial exposure, according to the new study.

Within wildfire smoke pollution, researchers often focus on fine particulate matter, known as PM2.5, which penetrates the lungs and enters the bloodstream. While the health effects of PM2.5 from other sources are well studied, less is known about the specific dangers of PM2.5 from wildfire smoke. Some recent research shows that wildfire smoke can contain a range of toxic chemicals harmful to human health. Qiu, Burke, and colleagues used U.S. death records to assess these additional risks from smoke.

The researchers combined county-level data on all recorded U.S. deaths from 2006 to 2019 with measurements of ground-level smoke emissions, wind variation, and the movement of airborne particulate matter, using machine learning to predict how wildfire emissions changes in one area affected smoke concentrations in another. They linked changes in smoke concentrations to variation in historical mortality and used global climate models to project future fire activity, smoke levels, and health impacts under different warming scenarios through 2050.

The results show that excess deaths from smoke PM2.5 exposure under a business-as-usual emissions scenario could increase more than 70% to 70,000 per year from roughly 40,000 annual deaths attributed to smoke from 2011 to 2020. The largest projected increases in annual smoke exposure deaths occur in California (5,060 additional deaths), New York (1,810), Washington (1,730), Texas (1,700), and Pennsylvania (1,600).

By quantifying economic damage from smoke-related deaths, the findings uncover a hidden tax on families and businesses. The researchers found that even if the world cuts emissions rapidly enough to stabilize global temperatures below 2ºC by the end of the century, deaths from climate-driven smoke exposure in the U.S. alone would likely still exceed 60,000 per year by 2050.

“If you look at the leading climate impact assessment tools that are used to inform policy, none of them incorporate how changes in climate could influence wildfire smoke and related human mortality,” Qiu said. “Our study shows climate models are missing a huge part of the climate impacts in the U.S. – it’s like leaving the main character out of a movie.”

(Adapted from materials provided by the Stanford Doerr School of Sustainability.)

https://climateandcapitalism.com/2025/0 ... ds-killed/
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Post by blindpig » Tue Sep 23, 2025 2:36 pm

Fossil fuel production plans contradict climate promises
September 22, 2025

Official plans show continued collective failure to lower global emissions

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Twice as much fossil fuel as the 1.5ºC goal allows.

That’s the production level now planned by the governments of 20 major greenhouse gas emitters, according to the 2025 Production Gap Report, published this week by the Stockholm Environment Institute, Climate Analytics, and International Institute for Sustainable Development. Official targets for coal, oil and gas production in 2030 total 120% more than the 1.5ºC allows and 77% more than is consistent with a 2.0ºC increase in the global average temperature.

The following are lightly edited excerpts from the report’s Executive Summary.

Since 2019, the Production Gap Report (PGR) has examined how governments’ collective production plans for coal, oil, and gas diverge from the Paris Agreement’s goal of limiting global warming by “holding the increase in global average temperature to well below 2ºC above pre-industrial levels and pursuing efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5ºC above pre-industrial levels.”

Governments have explicitly acknowledged the need to transition away from fossil fuels to achieve this goal, a conclusion now reinforced by an opinion of the International Court of Justice. Yet 10 years on from the Paris Agreement, the situation remains stark: countries are in aggregate planning even more fossil fuel production than before, putting global climate ambitions at increasing risk.

Governments, in aggregate, still plan to produce far more fossil fuels than would be consistent with achieving the goals of the Paris Agreement. Projected 2030 production exceeds levels aligned with limiting warming to 1.5°C by more than 120%.

The production gap is the difference between governments’ planned fossil fuel production and global production levels consistent with limiting global warming to 1.5ºC or 2ºC. This assessment updates the one conducted in the 2023 PGR, which profiled the plans and projections of 20 major fossil-fuel-producing countries, representing a mix of the world’s largest producers.

The resulting analysis finds that governments still plan to produce more than double the amount of fossil fuels in 2030 than would be consistent with the median 1.5ºC pathway. The 2030 gap has increased, to more than 120% above the median 1.5ºC pathway and 77% above the median 2ºC pathway (compared to 110% and 69%, respectively, in the 2023 PGR).

Governments’ fossil fuel production plans also remain well above global levels implied by their stated climate mitigation policies and announced pledges as of September 2024, as modelled by the International Energy Agency.

Taken together, governments now plan even higher levels of coal production to 2035, and gas production to 2050, than they did in 2023. Planned oil production continues to increase to 2050. These plans undermine countries’ Paris Agreement commitments, and go against expectations that under current policies global demand for coal, oil, and gas will peak before 2030.

The near-term gap increase is the result of government plans for expanded coal and gas production. Aggregate planned coal production for 2030 is 7% higher than estimated in the 2023 PGR analysis; planned gas production is 5% higher,

To be consistent with limiting warming to 1.5ºC, global coal, oil, and gas supply and demand must decline rapidly and substantially between now and mid-century. However, the increases estimated under the government plans. and projections pathways would lead to global production levels in 2030 that are 500%, 31%, and 92% higher for coal, oil, and gas, respectively, than the median 1.5ºC-consistent pathway, and 330%, 16%, and 33% higher than the median 2ºC-consistent pathway.

The continued collective failure of governments to curb fossil fuel production and lower global emissions means that future production will need to decline more steeply to compensate. Reaching net zero greenhouse gas emissions in the second half of the century, as the Paris Agreement calls for, will require cutting fossil fuel production and use to the very lowest levels possible.

Every year that countries fail to make progress in curbing fossil fuel production and use, it becomes harder for the world to achieve its climate goals. In the first half of the 2020s, rather than peaking and falling rapidly, fossil fuel production has continued to grow. The time lost has two implications. The first is that cumulative fossil fuel production over the 2020s is likely to be substantially higher than in the 1.5ºCand 2ºC-aligned pathways used to assess the production gap. Thus, even if the world reduces fossil fuel production in 2030 to the levels seen in these pathways, the total coal, oil, and gas extracted over this decade will still be higher than is consistent with these pathways.

Second, these deeper reductions will be harder and more expensive to achieve, as the result of further lock-in of fossil fuel infrastructure added in the 2020s, and the increased pace of reductions required from now on. Even with rapid and concerted efforts starting today, fossil fuel production in 2030 will likely exceed the levels in the 1.5ºC-compatible scenarios presented in this report.

At the same time, the last two years have also shown the importance of keeping the 1.5ºC target in sight. Governments at COP28 agreed to “keep the 1.5ºC goal within reach” and called for countries to submit mitigation targets “aligned with limiting global warming to 1.5ºC.” The 1.5ºC limit has been further reinforced by the International Court of Justice, which found that 1.5ºC is the “primary temperature goal” of the Paris Agreement, and that global and national responses must work towards this goal. Doing so will require reaching net zero greenhouse gas emissions in the second half of this century, as called for in the Paris Agreement. This will require fossil fuel production and use to be cut to the very lowest levels possible.

Analysis in the 2023 PGR indicated that countries should aim for a near total phase-out of coal production and use by 2040 and a combined reduction in oil and gas production and use by three-quarters by 2050 from 2020 levels, at a minimum. Growing evidence supports both the necessity and feasibility of such deep reductions.

Achieving these reductions will require deliberate, coordinated policies to ensure a just transition away from fossil fuels. While a few major fossil-fuel-producing countries have begun to align production plans with national and international climate goals, most still have not.

Cutting fossil fuel production will require deliberate strategies to phase fossil fuel production down and out by the second half of the century. Such strategies would help countries fulfil their Paris Agreement pledges and net zero targets. Chapter 3 of this report summarizes recent developments related to the climate ambitions and the plans, perspectives, and policies for fossil fuel production of 20 major producer countries: Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, Colombia, Germany, India, Indonesia, Kazakhstan, Kuwait, Mexico, Nigeria, Norway, Qatar, the Russian Federation, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, the United Arab Emirates, the United Kingdom, and the United States. Most of these countries continue to plan fossil fuel production at levels inconsistent with their net zero climate ambitions.

17 of the 20 profiled countries still plan to increase production of at least one fossil fuel to 2030; 13 profiled countries plan significant increases in gas production. Moreover, 11 countries now expect higher production of at least one fuel in 2030 than they were planning in 2023, when we last undertook this assessment.

Despite an internationally agreed commitment to phase out “inefficient fossil fuel subsidies” — reiterated as part of the Global Stocktake agreed at the COP28 climate conference — many governments continue to provide substantial direct and indirect financial support for fossil fuels. The countries profiled here support production in multiple ways, including direct investment in infrastructure (Canada), streamlining of contracting procedures (Brazil), direct subsidies or investments for state-owned enterprises (China, India, Mexico), tax incentives for exploration and extraction (Kazakhstan, the Russian Federation), and opening up new areas for exploration and development (US, Norway). The fiscal cost of government support for fossil fuels remains near an all-time high.

As governments submit their third round of nationally determined contributions under the Paris Agreement, they must commit to reversing the continued expansion of global fossil fuel production, explicitly integrate plans for reducing production within wider energy transition efforts, and redouble cooperative efforts to ensure a just transition globally.

Not all the indicators reviewed in this report are negative. Six of the 20 profiled countries are now developing scenarios for domestic fossil fuel production aligned with national and global net zero targets, up from four in 2023. And several governments are actively pursuing clean energy transitions. For example, Colombia has adopted a Just Energy Transition roadmap and announced an investment plan to support it; Germany projects an even faster phase-out of coal production than in prior years; Brazil has launched an Energy Transition Acceleration Program; and China continues to deploy renewables at an unprecedented rate, hitting its 2030 target for solar and wind capacity six years ahead of schedule and lowering carbon dioxide emissions despite growing power demand.

Moreover, multiple countries profiled here remain committed to international cooperation on energy transitions. Although Just Energy Transition Partnerships — launched in 2021 to support a shift away from fossil fuels in emerging and developing countries — have faced implementation challenges, donor countries (except for the US) remain committed to supporting those already underway, and are exploring other types of innovative financing and cooperation mechanisms.

But much more is needed. As this report makes clear, most major fossil-fuel-producing countries have yet to embrace policies for deliberately phasing out fossil fuels and ensuring just transitions (or, in the case of the US, have abandoned them). Widely adopting and implementing such policies will be essential for successfully transitioning to a net zero world at the pace now required.

https://climateandcapitalism.com/2025/0 ... -promises/

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A Walk Across Alaska’s Arctic Sea Ice Brings to Life the Losses That Appear in Climate Data
Posted on September 21, 2025 by Conor Gallagher

By Alexandra Jahn, Associate Professor of Atmospheric, Oceanic and Arctic Sciences at the University of Colorado Boulder. Originally published at The Conversation.

As I walked out onto the frozen Arctic water off Utqiagvik, Alaska, for the first time, I was mesmerized by the icescape.

Piles of blue and white sea-ice rubble several feet high gave way to flat areas and then rubble again. The snow atop it, sometimes several feet deep, hides gaps among the blocks of sea ice, as I found out when one of my legs suddenly disappeared through the snow.

As a polar climate scientist, I have focused on Arctic sea ice for over a decade. But spending time on the ice with people who rely on it for their way of life provides a different perspective.

Local hunters run snowmobiles over the sea ice to reach the whales and seals they rely on for traditional food. They talked about how they know when the sea ice is safe to travel on, and how that’s changing as global temperatures rise. They described worsening coastal erosion as the protective ice disappears earlier and forms later. On land, they’re contending with thawing permafrost that causes roads and buildings to sink.

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George Chakuchin, left, and Mick Chakuchin walk over the ridges of sea ice that buffer their Bering Sea community of Toksook Bay, Alaska, from winter storms in January 2020. AP Photo/Gregory Bull

Their experiences echo the data I have been working with from satellites and climate models.

Most winters, sea ice covers the entire surface of the Arctic Ocean basin, even extending into the northern North Atlantic and North Pacific. Even in late summer, sea ice used to cover about half the Arctic Ocean. However, the late summer ice has declined by about 50% since routine satellite observations began in 1978.

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The sea ice concentration at the end of the melt season for 1979, the first September with satellite data, and 2024. The pink line, for comparison, is the 1981-2010 median edge of area with at least 15% ice coverage. Both the ice-covered area and the concentration of sea ice in September have decreased, with ice cover down about 50% from 1979 to 2024. NSIDC

This decline of summer sea ice area has a multitude of effects, from changing local ecosystems to allowing more shipping through the Arctic Ocean. It also enhances global warming, because the loss of the reflective white sea-ice surface leaves dark open water that absorbs the Sun’s radiation, adding more heat to the system.

What Coastal Communities Are Losing

Along the Alaskan coast, the decline of the Arctic sea ice cover is most apparent in the longer ice-free season. Sea ice is forming later in the fall now than it used to and breaking up earlier in the spring.

For people who live there, this means shorter seasons when the ice is safe to travel over, and less time when sea ice is present to protect the coastline from ocean waves.

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Traveling by kayak in Camden Bay, on the Beaufort Sea in northern Alaska, on Aug. 1, 1913. Joseph Dixon/U.S. National Park Service

Open water increases the risk of coastal erosion, particularly when accompanied by thawing permafrost, stronger storms and rising sea level. All are driven by greenhouse gas emissions from human activities, particularly burning fossil fuels.

In some places along the Alaskan coast, erosion threatens roads, houses and entire communities. Research has shown that coastal erosion in Alaska has accelerated over recent decades.

More weeks of open water also affect animals. Polar bears spend the summer on land but require sea ice to hunt their preferred food, seals. The longer the sea ice stays away from land, the longer polar bears are deprived of this high-fat food, which can ultimately threaten the bears’ survival.

The Ice Is Also Thinning and Getting Younger

Across the Arctic, satellite data has captured how sea ice has been thinning and getting younger.

As recently as the late 1970s, about 60% of the Arctic sea ice was at least 1 year old and generally thicker than younger ice. Today, the amount of ice more than a year old is down to about 35%.

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Age of sea ice percentage within the Arctic Ocean for the week of March 11-18, 1985-2022. NOAA

Local residents experience that change in another way: Multiyear sea ice is much less salty than new sea ice. Hunters used to cut blocks of multiyear sea ice to get drinking water, but that older ice has become harder to find.

Sea ice forms from ocean water, which is salty. As the water freezes, the salt collects in between the ice crystals. Because the higher the salt content, the lower the freezing point of the water, these enclosures in the sea ice contain salty liquid water, called brine. This brine drains out of the sea ice over time through small channels in the ice. Thus, multiyear sea ice, which has survived at least one melt cycle, is less salty than first-year sea ice.

Since the coastal landfast sea ice around Utqiagvik no longer contains much multiyear sea ice, if any, the hunters now have to take a block of lake ice or simply gallon jugs of water with them if they plan to stay on the ice for several days.

Why Data Shows a Continuing Decline

As long as greenhouse gas emissions continue to increase, Arctic sea ice will generally continue to decline, studies show. One study calculated that, statistically, the average carbon dioxide emissions per person per year in the U.S. led to the disappearance of an area of summer sea ice the size of a large hotel room – 430 to 538 square feet (40 to 50 square meters) each year.

Today, when Arctic sea ice is at its minimum extent, at the end of summer, it covers only about half what it covered in 1979 at that time of the year. The Arctic still has around 1.8 million square miles (4.6 million square kilometers) of sea ice that survives the summer melt, approximately equal to the area of the entire European Union.

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Climate models show the Arctic could be ice-free at the end of summer within decades, depending on how quickly humans rein in greenhouse gas emissions.

While a win for accessibility of shipping routes through the Arctic in summer, studies suggest that the large reduction of sea ice would bring profound ecological changes in the Arctic Ocean, as more light and heat enter the ocean surface.

The warmer the surface ocean water is, the longer it will take for the ocean to cool back down to the freezing point in the fall, delaying the formation of new sea ice.

What Now?

Arctic sea ice will continue to form in winter for the next several decades. The months of no sunlight mean it will continue to get very cold in winter, allowing sea ice to form.

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Pacific walruses surface through ice off the Alaska coast in 2004. Joel Garlich-Miller, U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service

Climate models have estimated that it would take extremely high atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations to warm the climate enough for no sea ice to form in the winter in the Arctic Ocean – close to 2,000 parts per million, more than 4.5 times our current level.

However, winter sea ice will cover less area as the Earth warms. For people living along the Arctic Ocean coast in Alaska, winter ice will still return for now. If global greenhouse gas emissions are not reduced, though, climate models show that even winter sea ice along the Alaskan coast could disappear by the end of the 21st century.

https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2025/09 ... -data.html

Banks Can’t Survive Climate Change
Posted on September 22, 2025 by Conor Gallagher

Conor here: Richard Murphy has in the past detailed the threat posed by climate-change-induced flooding on UK housing and the mortgages on those houses. Here he provides more of a global take, as well as updating the situation in the UK where wildfires are becoming increasingly common. Murphy offers some ways to fix this, although it’s hard to see a political path to these solutions on the horizon, and one can imagine that in the mind of the bankers they already believe they have a “resilient” system in place: bailouts.

By Richard Murphy, part-time Professor of Accounting Practice at Sheffield University Management School, director of the Corporate Accountability Network, member of Finance for the Future LLP, and director of Tax Research LLP. Originally published at Fund the Future.

A massive banking collapse is coming — and the cause isn’t speculation this time. It’s climate change.

Uninsurable homes mean worthless mortgages, and worthless mortgages mean broken banks. Unless governments act now with public banking and sustainable cost accounting, society itself is at risk.



This is the transcript:

Like it or not, there is a massive banking collapse ahead of us unless urgent action is taken.

What’s the  reason? Climate change is the reason.

There is no way around a banking collapse worldwide unless we begin to take climate change seriously, very soon.

Why? Because banks lend on the basis of security that they demand, which is charged on properties. And  vast numbers of properties are not going to be suitable for the purposes of providing that security sometime very soon in the future, because they’re going to become uninsurable. And as a consequence, banking is going to collapse.

Let’s just explain this.

Banks don’t take risks. I know they like to pretend they do in their advertising. They try to pretend they’re entrepreneurs, and they’re the friends of business, and they’ll go out of their way to help you to meet whatever demand you might have. But the truth is,  banks hate risk. So when they lend, they try to lend with what is called security. And that means that they take a mortgage over a property to guarantee that the loan that they’ve made to you is going to be repaid by them having the legal right to claim ownership of a property that is currently yours, and to then sell it if, for any reason, you default on payment to them. That’s how they lend.

You might call a mortgage a loan. But as far as the bank is concerned, it’s a legal charge over your home, which means that they can sell that home if you don’t keep up with the repayments. And it’s this structure, lending on security backed up by mortgages, that makes the banking system around the world work.

And that’s not just for homeowners either. It’s also for businesses. They, in the vast majority of cases,  are lent to by banks on the basis that there is an asset that the bank can claim, whether that be property in most cases – occasionally something else – or the personal guarantee of the owner of a business, very often also backed up by a mortgage on their home.

So this is how banking is. Let’s not pretend otherwise.  Over 85% of all loans in banking in the UK are backed up by a mortgage.

How does the role of insurance come into this then? Well, in theory, of course, you don’t need to insure a property, which is going to be used for security. Except, well, the bank insists that you do because it wants it to be there, of course. Because if it isn’t there for sale in a condition that is saleable, they’ve got no guarantee that they’ll be able to recover their money if you don’t pay them.

In other words,  insurance is critical to reducing the bank’s risk once more. And they therefore insist that you will insure a property if you borrow on the security of the property in question. You will be familiar with this if you have a mortgage. The bank will require evidence that you have the property insured. Very often, they’ll insist you buy their insurance to prove that’s the case.

But the point is that all over the world, more and more properties are becoming uninsurable. We’ve seen this because  of flood. Because of fire. Because of earthquake. Because of excessive heating, and because of drought. All of those are creating massive risks for the insurability of properties. And without insurance property is worthless for banking purposes.

And it’s climate change that is in every one of those cases, making insurance impossible in areas where it used to be easy to obtain.

Just think about it.  Fire in Los Angeles has made buying new homes in that city with a mortgage virtually impossible.

Sydney in Australia is seeing an increased number of wildfires, as are other cities in that continent.

Southern Europe, Greece, France, Spain are all seeing fires breaking out all over the place, and they are threatening the security of properties and so of insurability.

Flooding is becoming more commonplace, including in the UK, and areas that were previously unknown for flood risk are now facing real problems. In particular, central London has a massive flood risk issue if the Thames barrier is not enlarged, and very soon. And it will take a very long time for any such enlargement to take place because there is now a very serious risk that it could be overwhelmed by floodwater sometime soon.

That would wipe out Docklands. It would wipe out the centre of London. It would wipe out, according to bankers I’ve spoken to, the vast majority of the security available to them for the commercial property lending that they make.

And we’re even seeing this problem in places we would never have imagined before in the UK.

There’ve been wildfires in Scotland.

There’s been a wildfire in North Yorkshire this summer.

And that’s putting real people’s homes at risk of being uninsurable for a new threat.

We’ve already had flood, and many people in areas that you wouldn’t imagine – the Trent Valley, for example; the Severn Valley, for example – have faced this problem. But now we have fire risk too, and so far the government hasn’t reacted, although it has on flood risk.

We then have to look at the new issue. And that’s heat and drought, and the problems are just escalating.

The issue is uninsurable properties in ever larger numbers will mean fewer and fewer mortgages being available in the future.

But it also means that  existing loans will become unserviceable in effect, because there won’t be any insurance on them, and the risk in bank balance sheets will go up.

And then the problem is that when bankers realise that every bank’s balance sheet has vast numbers of assets on it, which may be of no value at all, they all stop lending to each other.

That is exactly  what happened in 2008. In 2008 in the USA. Banks stopped lending to each other because they had no idea what the real value of the mortgages on other banks’ balance sheets was, and therefore, they stopped inter-bank lending.

The system ground to a halt. It followed here almost immediately, and we have, as I’ve already noted, got this problem in the UK. But it’s in Germany. It’s in France. It’s in Greece. It’s in Australia. It’s in all sorts of countries around the world.

The failure we face is not particular or individual to any one area or to any one bank.

The failure that we face is systemic.

And bankers, I know from conversations I’ve had with some of them, have been suggesting, “Don’t worry. We’ll be able to dump all our risky properties onto somebody else well before the crisis hits because there are some stupid bankers out there who’ll take anything.”

But that’s just naive. It’s even stupid. The fact is that this risk of insolvency will hit simultaneously. Everybody will suddenly realise, and there will be some trigger event.  The fire in Los Angeles hasn’t been it so far, but it’s the warning sign. It’s the John the Baptist, to the coming of Christ, if you like – a bit of this patched metaphor, but one that works in this case – that says this is real and it’s going to happen.

And when banks collapse, what  we get is a liquidity collapse. In other words, there’s no money moving in the marketplace.

And when payment systems collapse as a consequence, and they could, then supply chains fail.

And when supply chains fail, there will be no money to pay your supermarket. And you have, in all likelihood, got no more than nine meals in your whole house available to be cooked now.

You will be in crisis when this happens.  Without banks, daily life will grind to a halt. No payments, no mortgages, no credit, no food supply, everything at risk.

No reward for work because somebody won’t be able to pay you.

This is how close to the wind we are already sailing,  when we know that the entire underpinning of the balance sheets of every bank on which we are dependent to keep our payment system working is at risk.

Society has put itself in jeopardy, and at the moment, everybody is pretending with their heads in the sand – which might just be another of these climate risks – that everything will work out all right.

I promise you it isn’t going to. There is no way on earth that banks are going to be able to pass the parcel.

The central bankers are still doing that. They’re pretending that this risk doesn’t exist when they’re undertaking their risk analysis of these entities. But the fact is, the problem is growing exponentially. All over the world, it’s growing exponentially, which means it’s getting faster and faster in other words.

So, doing the type of risk analysis the banks are doing, which by and large looks backwards and by and large looks at past risk, as an indicator of future risk, is absurd. It’s just getting worse.  Denial is not a strategy. It’s negligence. Climate risk cannot be ignored in banking.

So what must be done? We must recognise that uninsurability is now a core systemic risk in banking. And it’s ceased to be peripheral. It’s now at the forefront of everyone’s concern. We must work out who is most at risk, and for that purpose, I suggest that we use sustainable cost accounting, my method of accounting for companies at risk of the impact of climate change, and how we appraise the consequences.

We have to plan for alternative forms of banking before the current system collapses at the same time, because governments must be ready to replace failed banks. If they haven’t got that contingency in place, we’re in deep trouble.

And for that reason,  we have to create public banking for public need and not private profit.

I said this very loudly and clearly in 2008.  I said at that time that we had made a massive error of judgment by allowing banks’ payment systems on which we all rely and which are therefore core state infrastructure on which we are utterly dependent to be in private hands, when without them, the state would fail to function.

But nothing has been done since 2008 to put matters right.

We cannot survive climate change unless we change our banking system, is my point.

We need to change our models of lending.

We need to change our models of insurance.

We need to recognise that the current system is broken.

And we need to build resilient financial systems now with public backing to ensure that society itself will not collapse when our banks do.

But unless we take action, that is an almost certain outcome because they cannot survive in a world where properties are uninsurable, and more and more of them are moving into that category.

https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2025/09 ... hange.html

How about we change the relations of the means of production? Cut to the chase...
"There is great chaos under heaven; the situation is excellent."

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Re: The Long Ecological Revolution

Post by blindpig » Sat Sep 27, 2025 2:39 pm

Venezuela to Host Global Congress for Mother Earth Ahead of COP30

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Citizens supporting beach cleanups in Venezuela, 2025. X/ @Natsudragonil8

September 26, 2025 Hour: 8:52 am

Over 3,000 participants expected in Caracas to debate climate crisis and socio-environmental conflicts.

On Thursday, Ecosocialism Minister Ricardo Molina announced that Venezuela will host the World Congress in Defense of Mother Earth in Caracas from Oct. 9-10, as a prelude to the COP30 climate summit scheduled for November in Belem, Brazil.

More than 3,000 experts, leaders, activists, social movements, environmentalists, scientists, academics, students, ecosocialist councils and popular power are expected to attend, including 253 international guests from 56 countries.

“This Congress will allow us to unify criteria on urgent, cross-cutting issues affecting the planet, integrating scientific, political, social, economic, territorial and cultural perspectives,” Molina said.

Discussions will focus on the climate crisis and the prevailing socioeconomic model, biodiversity at risk, the rights of Mother Earth, socio-environmental conflicts and human rights, pollution and waste, sustainable economy, environmental education and culture, intergenerational justice, and youth.


The text reads, “Real commitment to ecosocialism! Nicolas Maduro met with Martin Von Hildebrand to reaffirm Venezuela’s commitment to environmental protection.”

“Venezuela is stepping forward to bring together the peoples of the world, who will raise their voices to debate, generate proposals and unite efforts to take concrete action in the face of the emergency and the effects of the capitalist climate crisis,” the Bolivarian minister pointed out.

The congress will also include participation from the eight member countries of the Amazon Cooperation Treaty Organization (ACTO): Bolivia, Brazil, Colombia, Ecuador, Guyana, Peru, Suriname and Venezuela.

In July, Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro presented a plan to address the climate crisis and announced the holding of a “World Ecosocialist Congress.” At that time, he launched the “Great Mission Mother Earth Venezuela,” aimed at preparing Venezuelan society for the new climate reality.

On Wednesday, Brazilian President Lula da Silva told the United Nations Climate Summit that it is important for all countries to arrive at COP30 “with their homework done.” He urged governments to announce their Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) ahead of the November meeting.

https://www.telesurenglish.net/venezuel ... -of-cop30/

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Carbon markets dispossess our territories and criminalize our ways’

September 26, 2025
Indigenous meeting in Peru condemns ‘carbon offset’ schemes that steal forests

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Participants in the “Meeting of Indigenous Peoples on Carbon Markets: Impacts, Initiatives, and Resistance,” held 15 to 19 September 2025, in the Kichwa Túpac Amaru community, in Chazuta, San Martín, Peru

From September 15 to 19, representatives from indigenous groups in Peru, Colombia, Ecuador, Paraguay, and Bolivia met to discuss the growing threat of so-called “carbon markets” to their sovereignty and self-determination. The meeting closed with adoption of the declaration published below.

The Declaration of Túpac Amaru

The Indigenous Peoples, nations and nationalities of Peru, Ecuador, Colombia, Bolivia, and Paraguay, gathered in the native Kichwa community of Túpac Amaru in the district of Chazuta, San Martín region in Peru, from 15 to 19 September 2025, within the framework of the “Meeting of Indigenous Peoples on Carbon Markets: Impacts, Initiatives, and Resistance” declare:

We reaffirm our spirituality, autonomy, self-determination, and the law of origin of our peoples, nations, and nationalities in the fight against the dispossession of our ancestral territories.
We demand that our Indigenous territories be valued as spaces for life and conservation, based on our historical ancestral practices and knowledge that we have been practicing for millennia, without the need to create additional categories of imposed conservation.
We reject the violations of our fundamental, collective, spiritual, and ancestral rights, as well as the conflicts over land ownership, the division and disharmony of our communities and representative organisations, and the loss of autonomy caused by the expansion of carbon markets, such as REDD+, and other green economy mechanisms that are false solutions to the climate crisis and biodiversity loss.
We warn that carbon markets promote the dispossession of our territories and the criminalisation of our traditional and subsistence practices through deceptive, abusive, long-term, unclear, and unsocialised contracts with our constituents, disregarding our organisational structures and procedures.
We denounce that activities linked to carbon markets and other forms of extractivism generate differentiated impacts on the bodies and lives of women, children, and adolescents in the territories, in addition to stigmatisation, persecution, and criminalisation of human rights defenders.
We denounce that the carbon projects underway in several of our territories have failed to meet the required safeguards, let alone deliver the promised benefits.
We reject all actors involved in the operation of these false solutions, such as: the certifying bodies VERRA, CER CARBONO, COLCX, Biocarbon Standard, and Gold Standard; developers such as CIMA Cordillera Azul, SERNANP, and the Ministry of the Environment in Peru; Yauto SAS and Biofix consultores SAS and others in Colombia; Green Carbon in Bolivia, and others in Ecuador and Paraguay; and validation and verification bodies such as AENOR International SAU, ICONTEC, Ruby Canyon Environmental, the Rainforest Alliance, and others in Colombia.
We condemn the fact that the buyers of carbon credits are the world’s leading polluters, such as Total Energies, Shell, BHP, Chevron Petroleum Company, Glencore, Geopark SAS, Organizacion Terpel SA, and others.
We are not willing to be complicit in their image-washing or any form of extractivism. We hold private banks and investors, and their useless and ineffective safeguards, such as the World Bank, KFW, IDB, and others, accountable for the economic, social, and cultural impacts of these carbon markets on our territories, and at the same time we call for transparency in their financing.
We urge States to fulfill their role as guarantors of our rights and remedy the impacts we denounce, and therefore reject their complicity and inaction.
We reject the exclusionary conservation policies of states and other private institutions for the creation of Protected Natural Areas on our ancestral territories, ignoring our right to free, prior, and informed consultation and to binding consent for our decisions.
We denounce that conservation organisations such as the IUCN, the Moore Foundation, and others support exclusionary conservation models that undermine our own vision of development and self-determination.
We demand that Pachamama be respected and recognised as a subject of law to guarantee the well-being of future generations.
We declare ourselves in permanent mobilisation and subscribe to this declaration:

Bolivia

Autonomía Guaraní Charagua Iyambae
Coordinadora Nacional de Autonomías Indígenas de Bolivia (CONAIOC)
Nación Monkoxɨ de Lomerío
Paraguay

Organización de Mujeres – Comunidad Nueva Promesa del pueblo Sanapaná – Miembro de la OCUN
Representantes de la Red de Promotores Jurídicos Indígenas de la región Occidental.
Comunidad El Estribo del Pueblo Enxet – Base de la CLIBCH
Colombia

Pueblo Inga del medio Putumayo
Asociación de Cabildos Indígenas del Municipio de Villagarzón Putumayo (ACIMVIP)
Asociación de Autoridades Indígenas del Pueblo Cofán (AMPII-CANKE)
Asociación de Cabildos Indígenas del Norte del Cauca – Çxhab Wala Kiwe (ACIN) Pueblo Nasa.
Peru

Federación de Pueblos Indígenas Kechwa Chazuta Amazonía (FEPIKECHA) y sus bases Túpac Amaru, Rebalse Chazuta, Alto Chazutayacu, Pongo del Huallaga, Ankash Yaku de Achinamisa, Sinchi Runa de Llucanayaku y Allima Sachayuk Siyambayok Pampa.
Federación de Pueblos Indígenas Kechwas del Bajo Huallaga San Martín (FEPIKBHSAM) y sus bases Shilcayo, Chipeza, Ishkay Urmanayuk Tununtunumba, Ricardo Palma y Callanayaku.
El Consejo Étnico de los Pueblos Kichwa de la Amazonía (CEPKA) y sus bases Anak Pillwana, Winkuyaku, Puerto Franco, Mishkiyakillu, Solo del Río Mayo, Wayku y Mushuk Belén.
Gobierno Territorial Autónomo de la Nación Wampis (GTANW)
Consejo de Mujeres Awajún Wampis Umukai Yawi (COMUAWUY)
Ecuador

Nación Shuar Indigenous peoples, defenders of life!

https://climateandcapitalism.com/2025/0 ... our-lives/

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Bangladesh is severely impacted by climate change, given its low-lying deltaic geography, which makes it one of the most flood-prone countries globally. In 2019, a flood destroyed the house of Nurun Nahar, pictured here, who lives in a remote place in Jamalpur. Photo: UN Women

Green Financialisation and Social Policy: Enhancing Inequalities in the Global South
Originally published: IDEAs (International Development Economics Associates) on September 21, 2025 by Sumangala Damodaran (more by IDEAs (International Development Economics Associates)) | (Posted Sep 26, 2025)

As the climate crisis deepens, the detrimental social impacts of climate change have been well documented, both globally and specifically in regions of the Global South. The landscape of climate finance has been influenced by growing pressure to recognise these social impacts and to integrate them into funding streams, policy initiatives, and frameworks. However, many of the fundamental issues raised by the Global South remain unaddressed. In fact, the landscape of climate finance as it has emerged is likely to aggravate the adverse social impacts of climate change and inequalities in developing countries, with racial, gendered and class dimensions. Among the different sources and instruments of climate finance that have been rolled out, a significant share comes from private sources and takes the form of debt or profit-oriented investment instruments.

Here, we examine three types of financial instruments promoted as tools for financing social policy that supports climate action in the Global South. These include Municipal Green Bonds (MGBs), green microfinance, and carbon markets for gender empowerment. All three are market-based instruments that claim to deliver a dual impact: advancing climate and environmental goals while also producing positive social outcomes. They have been promoted in Global South countries as a way to fill the so-called “financial gap,” enabling governments and local authorities to raise the capital needed for climate action while addressing the social impacts of climate change. We demonstrate how social welfare goals have been co-opted and absorbed into a corporate logic of growth, profit, and brand management through the rollout of such instruments.

Municipal Green Bonds
Municipal Green Bonds (MGBs) illustrate the use of municipal debt for adaptation projects, often adopted by subnational governments facing austerity and funding shortages. MGBs are debt securities issued by local or regional governments and labelled “green” to signal that the investment has climate- or environment-related objectives.

In Mexico, South Africa, Morocco, and Argentina—countries in the Global South where MGBs have been introduced—there are usually two types of municipal bonds, depending on the source of income used to repay the debt. The first are revenue bonds, which are expected to be paid back with the returns generated by the financed projects (for example, revenue from higher water bills following investments in water infrastructure). The second are general obligation bonds, which rely on the regular income sources of the local government issuing the bond (e.g., taxes).

In Cape Town, South Africa, a severe drought between 2016 and 2018 prompted the local government to issue an MGB worth US$75 million on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange in 2017. The funds were directed primarily to the Water Management Devices (WMDs) programme for ‘indigent’ households, to “enhance water management, influence behaviour to reduce water wastage and reduce water losses through leakage” (Herrera 2024: 155).

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Water conservation message on retaining wall at Cape Town waterfront. Photo: Daniel Case

Most of the ‘indigent’ households in Cape Town are located in Black and Coloured majority low-income neighbourhoods. Under this scheme, such households received a daily water quota of 350 litres – once the quota was used, water access was suspended until the next day. This quota was applied with little consideration for how households were enumerated, with one device covering several different families and large numbers of individuals in informal settlements under a single ‘household’. It was considered highly inadequate and also a typical case given the number of people that constitute typical households in poor neighbourhoods

The policy, where municipal green debt finances an environmental initiative, ended up severely restricting water access for these communities, against the backdrop of a racial divide. Research found that rather than driving transformative municipal change, the city continued projects that entrenched existing inequalities. Moreover, using municipal debt for adaptation intensified financial and environmental risks, which were borne primarily by poor and working-class communities of colour.

Households reported that they had no role in decision-making processes, despite the MGBs being issued by local authorities. They had limited understanding of how the devices worked or why they suddenly shut off, which worsened the water scarcity crisis. Women were disproportionately burdened with managing these new water restrictions. Herrera (2024: 164) found that ‘The issuance of the MGB and the allocation of proceeds to the WMDs triggered a financial distribution through which the bond buyers collected profits while taxpayers and water tariff payers contributed to repaying the municipal green debt’. In addition, there was a narrowing of options for the structural changes needed for just climate adaptation.

Green Microfinance for Gender Empowerment
Microfinance has long been one of the most widespread financial tools directed primarily at women for several decades now. In recent years, under a ‘microfinance turning green’ strategy, a variety of microfinance tools emerged from within the microfinance sector, combining the move towards financial inclusion with environmental sustainability, ostensibly motivated by ‘ethical considerations, financial risk management and the exploration of new business opportunities’ (Gilchrist et al 2021: 480). Combined with environmental organisations or conservation projects turning to microfinance – ‘green turning to microfinance’, it is supposedly a win-win approach to tackling both social and environmental problems, in a financially sustainable way.

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Microfinance loan scheme explained to women farmers in Tajikistan. Photo: UNDP

Apart from the provision of microfinance for green projects, mostly in renewable energy adoption, sustainable agriculture, clean cooking solutions, and water conservation, a variety of tools have been developed to assess whether the objectives of green microfinance are being met by supported projects. Examples of such tools are the Microfinance Environmental Performance Index (MEPI) and the Green Index, which bring in various categories of risk into the discussion. Risk factors for investing in particular projects that are considered are: the degree of environmental impact of an MFI through the activities of their clients; the environmental risks to which microfinance clients (and hence MFIs) are exposed, including climate change, changes in soil fertility, deforestation, etc; and risks of default of clients. These risks, built into the rates of interest, terms and duration of repayment of the microcredit that is provided, essentially mean that the clients, or the target populations encounter conditionalities that offset risks for the lenders.

Ironically, the very problems that these loans are intended to address – climate-related vulnerabilities – are the same risks that make them more expensive. In other words, the socio-economic impacts of climate change become factors that raise the cost of borrowing. Given the long history of predatory practices in microfinance, its “greening” represents a classic case of what Dafermos (2025) calls “exposing by self-protecting.” Here, private finance safeguards itself from climate risks while engaging in “climate derisking,” creating new low-risk, profitable opportunities for investment in the Global South.

Voluntary Carbon Markets for Gender Empowerment
Carbon offsetting measures and voluntary carbon markets (VCMs) are being promoted in developing countries as an important example of the ‘business case’ for gender equality. The VCM is a carbon pricing instrument (CPI) in which entities trade carbon credits, also known as offsets, each representing one tonne of CO2 equivalent (tCO2e) from projects that remove or avoid greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Various CPIs have been used worldwide, including carbon taxes, emissions trading systems, and offsetting programs. Some CPIs, such as carbon taxes, have been found to place a greater burden on women (Nicholson and Besco 2025).



The VCM, as a climate change mitigation tool, it is argued, can ‘reduce risks to gender equality within offset projects, mainstream SDG5 considerations, and create opportunities for SDG5 contributions… encouraging women’s participation due to their effectiveness as environmental decision-makers’ (Nicholson and Besco 2025). The VCM is also voluntary, which implies that organisations can choose and in fact ‘be encouraged’ to buy and sell credits to gain advantages for gender empowering and carbon offsetting projects. The VCM operates through carbon market registries such as Gold Standard and Verra, which can register projects for trading and are evaluated with regard to whether or not they adhere to various SDG outcomes, including advancing gender equality. The proceeds from the VCM are expected to be utilised for gender positive outcomes.

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Women farmers trained on climate smart innovations in Kenya. Photo: CCAFS

Despite critiques that point out lack of market regulation, poor climate performance of markets, the social inequalities they reinforce and generate, and misuse/manipulation by actors uninterested in climate mitigation, VCMs are being considered as useful instruments for gender-sensitive climate change policy. Both Verra and Gold Standard have published studies (Nicholson and Besco 2025) showing that there is a deficit in the supply of carbon credits that are delivering meaningful impacts for women and that women’s organisations or others that work in areas to do with gender equality are not voluntarily operating in VCMs. The problems identified are, first, that buyers and intermediaries can find it difficult to identify good projects due to the absence of high-quality, comparable labelling; and second, the issue of pricing, because the high cost of investment in gender integration results in a higher price (gender price premium), in turn discouraging investors.

What needs to be pointed out here is that, like other market-based mechanisms, the engagement with VCMs for women and organisations working on gender issues is shaped by a profit-and-return oriented logic of investment. This logic, combined with the lack of regulation and the high costs of both regulation and intermediary processes such as registration, labelling, and other mechanisms that are meant to provide ‘full information’ to investors, makes the VCM an unlikely mechanism to deliver benefits for climate- and gender-friendly activities. It is even less likely to benefit poor women in the Global South. Even when these problems are recognised, the focus tends to shift toward arguments for better regulation and governance, rather than questioning the reliance on market-based mechanisms themselves. As a result, the responsibility for making markets accountable is shifted onto the very communities that are most affected by climate change.

To conclude, whether we look at market-based debt instruments like MGBs, green microfinance, or trading in VCMs, it is the imperative of generating returns for private players and financial institutions that drives the ‘greening’ of these financial instruments. Believing that such instruments can deliver both ecological and social benefits in the Global South, particularly for poor and marginalised communities, is misguided. In reality, they are far more likely to aggravate existing class, racial, and gender inequalities.

https://mronline.org/2025/09/26/green-f ... bal-south/

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Data centres, the backbone of artificial intelligence, consume enormous amounts of water and energy—placing new pressures on local communities and ecosystems. Photo by Christopher Bowns/Flickr.

Water woes from data centres
Originally published: Canadian Dimension on September 22, 2025 by Justine Babin and M.V. Ramana (more by Canadian Dimension) | (Posted Sep 27, 2025)

Even as debates continue about the potential of artificial intelligence, some jurisdictions are promoting themselves as prime locations for the data centres essential to training and running AI models. Among them is the Government of Alberta, whose AI Data Centre Strategy claims the province has “the natural resources to power and sustain AI data centres” and aims to “position Alberta as a global leader in AI-driven data centre operations.”

Hosting these facilities will have major consequences for nearby communities, particularly by threatening water supplies and generating environmental inequities. As climate change increasingly disrupts water cycles, the water footprint of data centres will become even more pressing for both local residents and policymakers.

Water is critical to data centres in two main ways. First, cooling systems depend on it to keep computer hardware within the recommended range of 18 to 27 degrees Celsius. There are a few different methods of maintaining this temperature, but most involve water. Second, large amounts are used in generating the electricity that powers these centres. This consumption can take place close to or far from the site, depending on where the electricity is produced. Thermal power plants like coal and nuclear facilities use vastly more water than renewable sources such as solar and wind. In addition, semiconductor fabrication for computer chips contributes to overall water use, though this is relatively small compared to cooling and power generation.

The amount of water required also varies depending on what the data centre is used for. The demands of training generative AI models, for instance, may look very different from the requirements of the US National Security Agency’s massive Utah data centre, which was exposed in Edward Snowden’s revelations.

Despite frequent media coverage with headlines like “AI is draining water from areas that need it most,” actual figures on water use remain uncertain. Most data centres are owned by Big Tech companies such as Meta, Google, Amazon and Microsoft, which tend to be secretive about their operations. A 2021 review found fewer than a third of operators even measured water use. Environmental reports that are made public often leave out crucial information. Amazon’s 2023 sustainability report, for example, cites a measure called “Water Use Effectiveness” (litres per kilowatt-hour) but does not disclose the total number of kilowatt-hours consumed—making it impossible to calculate actual water usage.

Some companies (Meta, Google, Amazon and Microsoft) have pledged to offset their direct water footprint by 2030 through efficiency measures, replenishment and restoration projects. But unlike carbon dioxide emissions, which have the same effect regardless of location, water scarcity is local: investments in replenishment elsewhere do not help communities losing access to water from rivers and aquifers.

The way companies have dealt with affected communities has also raised concerns. Research shows they often hide corporate identities behind local subsidiaries, invoke trade secrecy to block oversight, and delegate construction to lesser-known contractors to deflect criticism. In Wissous, France, for example, Amazon hired a company called CyrusOne to build a new data centre, sparking local controversy.

Because of secrecy and varied practices, it is very difficult to estimate future water demand from data centres in Alberta or elsewhere. What can be said with confidence is that demand will be substantial, and local impacts significant.

Although precise figures are seldom available on a consistent basis, evidence already shows major impacts on local water availability. One study estimated that seven data centres in Utah’s Great Salt Lake region consumed 600 million gallons of water in 2023. To put that into perspective, this is roughly equivalent to the annual consumption of over 100,000 beef cattle—an industry that is Utah’s top agricultural sector, generating nearly $500 million in 2019.

Other examples suggest even higher consumption. In Council Bluffs, Iowa, Google used 980 million gallons of drinking water in 2023, accounting for nearly a quarter of the city’s total water use that year. In The Dalles, Oregon, another Google facility consumed 302 million gallons out of 1.5 billion gallons used by the city, or about 20 percent of its drinking water supply. These cases make clear that data centres can have significant local impacts.

Water consumption by data centres has already triggered conflicts with other essential uses, particularly agriculture. In Aragon, Spain, Amazon’s new data centres are expected to use enough water to irrigate 233 hectares of corn, one of the region’s main crops. In a region already strained by water used for export-oriented farming, the prospect of competing with data centres for limited resources has led to the creation of a group called Tu Nube Seca Mi Río (“your cloud is drying my river”). Similar disputes have emerged in The Dalles, where farms and orchards have endured severe droughts and declining aquifers, and in the Netherlands, where farmers argue that data centres worsen nitrogen pollution during construction.

Civil society resistance has occasionally slowed or blocked projects. In 2024, an environmental court in Chile partially reversed a permit for a Google data centre. In 2022, the Netherlands imposed a moratorium on new large-scale data centres, and Ireland has an informal pause in place until 2028. These examples remain rare, but they show that public pressure can make a difference.

Canada is only beginning to confront these issues. Nearly a hundred data centres are already clustered around the northern shores of Lake Ontario, raising alarms about impacts on the Great Lakes. In Québec, residents have voiced concerns about farmland and water resources. And in Alberta, the Sturgeon Lake Cree Nation has accused a proposed project of threatening their livelihoods by drawing water from the Smoky River.

Debates about AI and data centres often focus on energy requirements, but water deserves equal attention. As Alberta and other provinces consider whether to welcome new facilities, both water and energy demands should be weighed carefully. The first step should be transparency: companies must disclose accurate and complete figures on water and energy use for all their facilities worldwide. Several US states are already considering transparency laws, and the European Union now requires member states to collect and publish such data. Canada should follow this example before approving further projects.

https://mronline.org/2025/09/27/water-w ... a-centres/
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Re: The Long Ecological Revolution

Post by blindpig » Mon Oct 06, 2025 2:29 pm

Has the Anthropocene Been Canceled?
by Ian Angus

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Ian Angus is editor of the online ecosocialist journal Climate & Capitalism and a founding member of the Global Ecosocialist Network. He is the author of Facing the Anthropocene: Fossil Capitalism and the Crisis of the Earth System (2016) and, most recently, The War Against the Commons: Dispossession and Resistance in the Making of Capitalism (2023), both published by Monthly Review Press.
Some 2.8 million years ago, the level of carbon dioxide in Earth’s atmosphere dropped, triggering an Ice Age. Since then, long-term changes in Earth’s orbit and tilt, called Milankovitch cycles, have produced global temperature swings every 100,000 years or so. In the glacial (cold) phases, kilometers-thick ice sheets covered most of the planet; in shorter interglacial (warm) periods, the ice retreated toward the poles. For the past 11,700 years, we have lived in an interglacial period that geologists call the Holocene Epoch.

Under normal circumstances, the glaciers and polar ice caps would now be slowly growing. As recent research shows, “if not for the effects of increasing CO2, glacial inception would reach a maximum rate within the next 11,000 years.”1 Instead of global heating, the Earth’s future would be global freezing, but only in the distant future.

However, as anyone even slightly aware of environmental issues knows, the world’s glaciers and ice caps are not expanding; they are shrinking—fast. Between 1994 and 2017, Earth lost 28 trillion tons of ice, and the rate of decline has increased by 57 percent since the 1990s.2 Even if greenhouse gas emissions are rapidly reduced, conditions preventing the return of continental ice sheets will likely persist for at least 50,000 years. If emissions do not stop, the ice will not be back for at least half a million years.3

In short, as a direct result of greenhouse gas emissions caused by human activity, the Ice Age has been canceled.

This is concrete proof of one of the most radical conclusions of twenty-first century science: “The earth has now left its natural geological epoch, the present interglacial state called the Holocene. Human activities have become so pervasive and profound that they rival the great forces of nature and are pushing the earth into planetary terra incognita.”4

The scientists who first reached that conclusion named the new epoch the Anthropocene. An overwhelming volume of evidence shows that a new stage in Earth system history has begun, one characterized by major changes to many aspects of the natural world, heading toward conditions that humans may not survive. They have shown that many of the largest changes are irreversible on any human timescale. They have dated the beginning of this radical transformation to the mid-twentieth century. They have also shown that physical records of the change can be seen in geological strata.

To any reasonable observer, the case is irrefutable. Yet, some prominent scientists deny that a qualitative change has taken place, and one of the world’s largest scientific organizations has voted against formal recognition of the new epoch. The research and debates that led to this perverse result help to illuminate the challenges facing scientists and ecosocialists in our time.

Earth System Science
During the 1970s and ’80s, increasing numbers of scientists came to the conclusion that traditional scientific methods focusing on local or regional issues were insufficient for understanding environmental problems—that Earth as a whole had entered a period of extreme crisis caused by human activity.

In 1972, for example, Barbara Ward and René Dubos wrote that “the two worlds of man—the biosphere of his inheritance, the technosphere of his creation—are out of balance, indeed potentially in deep conflict.” Earth faced “a crisis more sudden, more global, more inescapable, and more bewildering than any ever encountered by the human species and one which will take decisive shape within the life span of children who are already born.”5

Several bestselling books by James Lovelock promoted what he called the “Gaia hypothesis”—that living matter actively regulates the planetary environment to ensure optimal conditions that sustain life. His views were rejected by most scientists, but their popularity encouraged study of the planet as a whole. Some scientists still use the word Gaia as a synonym for the Earth System.6

NASA formed an Earth System Sciences Committee in 1983, declaring that its goal was “to obtain a scientific understanding of the entire Earth System on a global scale by describing how its component parts and their interactions have evolved, how they function, and how they may be expected to continue to evolve on all time scales.”7 Millions of high-resolution images of Earth obtained by the Landsat satellites, first launched in 1972, contributed to that effort.

In 1986, the International Council of Scientific Unions approved the formation of the International Geosphere-Biosphere Program (IGBP) “to describe and understand the interactive physical, chemical and biological processes that regulate the total Earth system, the unique environment that it provides for life, the changes that are occurring in this system, and the manner in which they are influenced by human activities.”8

The IGBP began operations in 1990, with a secretariat in Stockholm and a variety of international working groups that involved thousands of scientists. By any measure it was “the largest, most complex, and most ambitious program of international scientific cooperation ever to be organized.”9 For the next twenty-five years, the most important work in Earth System science was performed under the IGBP’s umbrella.

One of the IGBP’s founding statements began: “Mankind today is in an unprecedented position. In the span of a single human generation, the Earth’s life sustaining environment is expected to change more rapidly than it has over any comparable period of human history.”10 That statement proved more insightful than anyone imagined in 1990. In 2000, at a meeting where the various working groups reported on a decade of in-depth research, Nobel Prize-winning atmospheric chemist Paul Crutzen concluded that the accumulated changes had broken through the limits of the present geological epoch. “We’re not in the Holocene anymore,” he declared. “We’re in the Anthropocene!”11

The importance of that insight cannot be overstated. Anthropocene was not just a new word, it was a new reality and a new way of thinking about the crisis of the Earth System. Several leading participants in the development of Earth System Science wrote recently:

ESS [Earth System Science], facilitated by its various tools and approaches, has introduced new concepts and theories that have altered our understanding of the Earth System, particularly the disproportionate role of humanity as a driver of change. The most influential concept is that of the Anthropocene, introduced by PJ Crutzen to describe the new geological epoch in which humans are the primary determinants of biospheric and climatic change. The Anthropocene has become an exceptionally powerful unifying concept that places climate change, biodiversity loss, pollution and other environmental issues, as well as social issues such as high consumption, growing inequalities and urbanization, within the same framework. Importantly, the Anthropocene is building the foundation for a deeper integration of the natural sciences, social sciences and humanities, and contributing to the development of sustainability science through research on the origins of the Anthropocene and its potential future trajectories. 12

Crutzen initially suggested that the Anthropocene may have begun with the Industrial Revolution in the 1700s, but subsequent research focused attention on the middle of the twentieth century.

Key to this understanding was the discovery of a sharp upturn in a multitude of global socioeconomic indicators and Earth System trends at that time; a phenomenon termed the “Great Acceleration.” It coincides with massive increases in global human-consumed energy and shows the Earth System now on a trajectory far exceeding the earlier variability of the Holocene Epoch, and in some respects the entire Quaternary Period.13

In 2004, the IGBP published Global Change and the Earth System: A Planet Under Pressure, which synthesized the results of their research on global change and argued that “the Earth System is now in a no-analogue situation, best referred to as a new era in the geological history of earth, the Anthropocene.”14

After outlining what IGBP researchers had learned about the complex dynamics of the Earth System, the authors described how human activities are now changing it in fundamental ways. Their account included the famous “Great Acceleration” graphs, showing the unprecedented increases in economic activity and environmental destruction that began about 1950. The great metabolic cycles that support life on Earth—carbon, nitrogen, water, and more—were disrupted, and “the most rapid and pervasive shift in the human-environment relationship began.… Over the past 50 years, humans have changed the world’s ecosystems more rapidly and extensively than in any other comparable period in human history.”15

A New Reign of Climate Chaos?
Chart 1, adapted from a study of ice-core data by scientists at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, shows the average annual temperature in Greenland over the past 100,000 years.16 The first 90 percent of this time was the end of the Pleistocene, a 2.6 million year-long epoch characterized by repeated glacial advances and retreats. In this period, the global climate was not only cold, it was in general extremely variable.

Modern humans walked the earth for all the time shown in this graph, but until the Holocene they lived in small, nomadic groups of hunter-gatherers. Climate historian William J. Burroughs, who calls the time before the Holocene the “reign of chaos,” compellingly argues that so long as rapid and chaotic climate change continued, agriculture and settled life were impossible. To succeed, agriculture needs not just warm seasons, but a stable and predictable climate—and indeed, not long after the Holocene began, humans on five continents independently took up farming as their permanent way of life. “Once the climate had settled down into a form that is in many ways recognizable today, all the trappings of our subsequent development (agriculture, cities, trade, etc.) were able to flourish.”17

The Holocene has been one of the longest stable warm periods in the last half a million years.18 From 11,700 years ago to the twentieth century, the average global temperature did not vary by more than one degree Celsius—up or down half a degree. That is not to say that Holocene weather was without extremes: the one-degree average variation included droughts, famines, heat waves, cold snaps, and intense storms. But overall, it was marked by a not-too hot, not-too cold, “Goldilocks” climate.

Chart 1. Average Annual Greenland Temperature, 100,000 Years Ago to Present
Image

Notes and Sources: Temperature record of the past 100,000 years showing dramatic swings between cold (glacial) and warm periods followed by the warmer Holocene Epoch, starting approximately 11,700 years ago. Andrey Ganopolski and Stefan Rahmstorf, “Rapid Changes of Glacial Climate Simulated in a Coupled Climate Model,” Nature 409, no. 6817 (January 2001): 153–58.

In 2009, twenty-nine leading Earth System scientists defined nine planetary boundaries that, if crossed, could destabilize the Earth System. Staying within the boundaries would maintain Holocene-like conditions, the only environment that we know for sure can support large and complex human societies. The most recent update, published in 2023, found that six of the nine boundaries have been crossed. The Earth System has left the safe operating space for climate change, biosphere integrity, land system change, freshwater change, biogeochemical (nitrogen and phosphorus) flows, and novel entities, and it is close to the boundary for ocean acidification. These shifts portend a climate that is hotter, more variable, and less predictable than any settled human society has experienced—a new reign of chaos.

Rarely has a new scientific concept won wide support as quickly as the Anthropocene. The decade following Crutzen’s spontaneous declaration produced a large body of Earth System research exploring aspects of the concept. An inflection point occurred in 2012, when the IGBP and other Earth System science organizations held a conference on global change in London. More than three thousand people attended in person and three thousand more attended online. The meeting’s final declaration was unequivocal:

Research now demonstrates that the continued functioning of the Earth system as it has supported the well-being of human civilization in recent centuries is at risk. Without urgent action, we could face threats to water, food, biodiversity and other critical resources: these threats risk intensifying economic, ecological and social crises, creating the potential for a humanitarian emergency on a global scale….

Humanity’s impact on the Earth system has become comparable to planetary-scale geological processes such as ice ages. Consensus is growing that we have driven the planet into a new epoch, the Anthropocene, in which many Earth-system processes and the living fabric of ecosystems are now dominated by human activities. That the Earth has experienced large-scale, abrupt changes in the past indicates that it could experience similar changes in the future. This recognition has led researchers to take the first step to identify planetary and regional thresholds and boundaries that, if crossed, could generate unacceptable environmental and social change.19

But Geology…
Still, something was missing. “Holocene” is a geological term: it names the last 11,700 years, the most recent stage in the planet’s geological history. It is an epoch in the Geological Time Scale, which was created to ensure that all geologists have a common understanding of the stages of Earth’s physical history and use the same terms to describe it. Any change to the Geological Time Scale must be formally approved by the International Commission on Stratigraphy (ICS) and the International Union of Geological Sciences (IUGS), both of which are notoriously conservative and resistant to change.

It was not until 2009 that the ICS asked palaeobiologist Jan Zalasiewicz of the United Kingdom’s Leicester University to chair a working group to investigate and report on whether geologists should formally recognize the Anthropocene as a new epoch.

The Anthropocene Working Group (AWG) had to start from scratch: past working groups could base their deliberations on decades of existing research, but no one had yet looked for geological evidence of a break between the Holocene and a possible new epoch. In the years following the formation of the AWG, geologists around the world conducted dozens of research projects on that subject, with results published in peer-reviewed journals and in books edited by AWG members.

There was an immense amount of data and analysis to assimilate, especially since the group was small and its members were unpaid volunteers. However, by 2015 they had accumulated and evaluated a mass of geological evidence—strong physical indicators that a radical change was taking place. An article summarizing that evidence was published in the journal Science in January 2016.

The appearance of manufactured materials in sediments, including aluminum, plastics, and concrete, coincides with global spikes in fallout radionuclides and particulates from fossil fuel combustion. Carbon, nitrogen, and phosphorus cycles have been substantially modified over the past century. Rates of sea-level rise and the extent of human perturbation of the climate system exceed Late Holocene changes. Biotic changes include species invasions worldwide and accelerating rates of extinction. These combined signals render the Anthropocene stratigraphically distinct from the Holocene and earlier epochs….

The stratigraphic signatures described above are either entirely novel with respect to those found in the Holocene and preexisting epochs or quantitatively outside the range of variation of the proposed Holocene subdivisions. Furthermore, most proximate forcings of these signatures are currently accelerating. These distinctive attributes of the recent geological record support the formalization of the Anthropocene as a stratigraphic entity equivalent to other formally defined geological epochs. The boundary should therefore be placed following the procedures of the International Commission on Stratigraphy.20

By 2023, the AWG had decided, by an overwhelming majority, that a new geological epoch began in about 1950, and that the best stratigraphic signal for the beginning of the new epoch was the presence of plutonium isotopes, created and spread by the atmospheric hydrogen bomb tests that the United States and the Soviet Union conducted between 1952 and 1963.

Twelve locations on five continents were studied in detail for suitability as reference sites. The onset of the Anthropocene could be clearly identified in all twelve, but the researchers selected Crawford Lake in southwestern Ontario as the best location for a “golden spike.” For centuries, unique conditions there have preserved annual layers of sediment, including undisturbed layers containing plutonium. Three other locations, in Japan, China, and Poland, were selected as auxiliary sites.

Opposition
The most common argument against the new epoch was that human beings have always changed the environment, so the Anthropocene is nothing new. Late in the debate, this argument took the form of a proposal that the Anthropocene should be considered as an informal “event,” spread over thousands of years. In that framework, the Great Acceleration was at most an intensification of long-term continuing changes, not a qualitative shift.21

AWG members replied: “the Anthropocene is de facto a new epoch, not an encapsulation of all anthropogenic impacts in Earth history.” Indeed, that idea “runs counter to the Anthropocene’s central meaning” by extending it to all human-induced changes over thousands of years and ignoring “the abrupt human-driven shift a new Earth System state that has exceeded the natural variability of the Holocene.”22

In short, the proposal preserved the word but erased its fundamental meaning and radical content.

Other arguments against formalizing the Anthropocene ranged from trivial (the name is not appropriate; the idea comes from outside geology; other epochs are longer) to insulting (this whole thing is just about getting publicity). In 2017, members of the AWG assembled the published arguments against the Anthropocene and prepared responses to each. The resulting article was polite and collegial but nonetheless devastating. It left the critics with no scientific basis for continued opposition.23

Yet, as Zalasiewicz later wrote: “neither this strengthened evidence base, nor further evidence subsequently gathered, did anything to diminish the outright opposition to the Anthropocene from a minority of AWG members and their colleagues.” He went on:

This suggested that this opposition and that of others in the ICS—the strong opposition of the highly influential ICS Chair, Stanley Finney, was a significant factor—even when responded to and countered was not based on the amount and quality of stratigraphic evidence. Rather, it seemed to reflect more deep-seated aspects of the chronostratigraphically proposed Anthropocene….

Evidence-based refutations did nothing to prevent further reiterations of the “event” suggestion, again suggesting that the body of stratigraphic evidence assembled by the AWG was of little relevance to the central question of whether an Anthropocene epoch should exist at all.…

The Anthropocene clearly touches nerves that more ancient strata do not reach.24

In November 2023, when the AWG submitted its formal proposal to recognize the new epoch, it also submitted a complaint to the Geoethics Commission, charging that the executives of the ICS and the IUGS had deliberately hindered and undermined their work. The Commission reportedly supported the complaint and recommended that no vote be held. The IUGS appears to have ignored the recommendation.

If normal procedures had been followed, the AWG submission should have initiated a period of open discussion. Instead, in March 2024 the AWG’s proposal was abruptly voted down after a brief discussion in a closed-door setting. The IUGS did not reply to the AWG submission, it simply announced its rejection.

We can only speculate about the motives that led to this preposterous decision, but as archaeologists Todd Braje and Jon Erlandson have pointed out, this debate “has the potential to influence public opinions and policies related to critical issues such as climate change, extinctions, modern human-environmental interactions, population growth, and sustainability.”25 In that respect, it is surely relevant that geology—a science deeply implicated in the discovery and exploitation of fossil fuels—has been, shall we say, conservative on the question of climate change.

In 2016, the chair of the ICS charged that “the drive to officially recognize the Anthropocene may, in fact, be political rather than scientific.”26 The opposite seems more likely: opposition to the idea of the Anthropocene is political, not scientific. Certainly, he and his colleagues have ensured that no one can use the prestige of the ICS and IUGS in support of decisive action to prevent climate chaos. The price paid for that political win is a defeat for geology’s credibility—the Geological Time Scale no longer accurately reflects Earth history.

The AWG has not gone away. It continues operations as an independent group, and has published several important papers since the ICS and IUGS rulings.27 Like Charles Darwin in another time, they are challenging a scientific establishment that is bent on protecting an unscientific worldview—a difficult but essential contribution to the advancement of science.

Eight years before the top bureaucrats in organized geology made their decision, I closed a summary of Anthropocene debates with these words:

It is still possible that the usually conservative International Commission on Stratigraphy will either reject, or decide to defer, any decision on adding the Anthropocene to the geological time scale, but as the AWG majority writes, “the Anthropocene already has a robust geological basis, is in widespread use, and indeed is becoming a central, integrating concept in the consideration of global change.…”

In other words, failure to win a formal vote will not make the Anthropocene go away.28

Since I wrote that, the volume and persuasiveness of the evidence has only grown. The highest temperatures in human history, species extinctions on an unprecedented scale, a global glut of plastics and synthetic chemicals that nature cannot absorb, multiple pandemics of previously unknown diseases, and many more crises confirm that massive disruption of Earth’s life support systems is underway, in a new and deadlier stage of planetary history.

The Anthropocene may not be official, but it is real.

Notes at link.

https://monthlyreview.org/articles/has- ... -canceled/

******

The political killings you don’t hear about

Across the globe, standing up for the planet can be a death sentence—and the perpetrators are almost never held accountable.
Siri Chilukuri
Sep 29, 2025


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Juan López, an environmental activist in Honduras, was shot dead in front of his family, friends and neighbors last year as he was leaving a religious service. Image source: Amnesty International.

Many people in America consider Charlie Kirk’s murder a shocking, unprecedented act of political violence.

But the reality is, activists across the world are brutally gunned down and disappeared almost every day for their political speech. They just don’t have Kirk’s power or platform.

Take Juan López, an environmental activist from Honduras. He was shot dead in front of his family, friends and neighbors last fall as he was traveling home from church—six shots to the chest, one to the head. López had been fighting to protect the Carlos Mejía Escaleras National Park from iron oxide mining which has ravaged the area with pollution. Having faced years of prior threats and even jail time over his activism, López was supposed to be under special protection by authorities in Honduras. But those protections failed to materialize.

Or take Alberto Ortula Cuartero, a vocal environmental activist from the Philippines. The local government leader was publicly gunned down last fall by a passing motorbike rider. He was murdered after testifying against the Tribu Manobo Mining Corporation, alleging they were working on a falsified permit for nickel exploration. Cuartero was known in his community for mobilizing people against nickel mining, which is poisoning water and farmland in the region. His killer remains unidentified.

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Alberto Cuartero, an environmental activist in the Phillippines, was publicly killed by a gunman last year. Image source: Global Witness.

There’s also Julia Chuñil Catricura, who wasn’t publicly assassinated, but mysteriously disappeared while walking with her dog. The 72-year-old Indigenous Mapuche activist was well-known for speaking out about business interests destroying the native forest stewarded by her tribe. Chuñil had been threatened and harassed because of her advocacy for Indigenous sovereignty and stewardship over that land before her disappearance. Her dog returned from the walk. She did not.

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Protestors demand answers about Mapuche leader Julia Chuñil’s disappearance during protests in Santiago in March 2025. Source: Wikimedia Commons

The activists mentioned above are just three of the 146 people who were murdered or went missing while defending their land, forests, and water from illegal mining, logging, poaching, and other environmentally damaging activities in 2024, according to a new report by the nonprofit organization Global Witness.

(You can read more about the other environmental and Indigenous activists murdered or disappeared in 2024 here)https://gw.hacdn.io/media/documents/Def ... pt2025.pdf

While this figure is lower than the peak of 227 environmental and land defenders killed in 2020, it’s still a part of a frightening trend, said Laura Furones, the lead author of the report.

“Year after year, land and environmental defenders—those protecting our forests, rivers, and lands across the world—continue to be met with unspeakable violence,” she said in a statement. “They are being hunted, harassed, and killed—not for breaking laws, but for defending life itself.”

Image

While many of the victims in Global Witness’s report were well known in their region or communities, their lack of access to an international platform—like Kirk had—has meant that their deaths have not garnered a fraction of the coverage or conversation.

López’s assassination was arguably the most internationally acknowledged murder of a land defender in 2024—his death was condemned by the United States and the United Nations— but he is still unknown to millions of people.

So why don’t we hear more about the deaths of environmental and land defenders when they happen?

Aalayna Green, a PhD candidate at Cornell studying race, conflict, and conservation, told HEATED that larger structural factors like racism, and histories of colonialism, have devalued the lives of non-white people, particularly Black and Indigenous people in other countries.

Every environmental defender murdered or disappeared in 2024 was from Latin America, Asia, or Africa, according to the report. Eighty percent of the killings occurred in Latin America. Nearly a third of the victims were Indigenous or of African ancestry.

“I think the thing that unites the permission of violence, or the justification of violence, is anti-Blackness,” said Green. “Whether that be intentional or unintentional, or conscious or subconscious, there’s a really big anti-Blackness problem that’s undergirding the dilemma of violence that we’re seeing today.”

Although Americans’ knowledge of world events and figures varies widely, language barriers and lack of news coverage beyond remote areas also play a role in downplaying the issue.

So what’s being done to address the problem?

One oft-discussed solution is state-sponsored protection plans for locals that might be under threat of violence or murder. But these often don’t work.

For example, Brazilian environmental activist Mãe Bernadete was under a state protection program when she was murdered in 2023. Bernadete was already under an incredible amount of protection, including security cameras in her house and military police who were making the rounds daily in her community.

That’s why many activists are calling on international bodies, like the United Nations, to step in and provide further protection. At COP30, which will be hosted in Brazil this November, activists will call on the U.N. to recognize and protect Indigenous land defenders as stewards of the land, as well as swiftly investigating killings and disappearances of land defenders.

“It’s clear that our knowledge, experience and practices as defenders must be at the heart of the solutions to the crisis,” Selma dos Santos Dealdina Mbaye, a colleague of Bernadete’s, said in the report. “But we cannot continue to protect the planet – including its biodiversity and its forests – if world leaders do not protect us from attack.”

https://heated.world/p/the-political-ki ... dium=email

Dunno how you can expect 'world leaders' to protect land defenders when said leaders are in the pockets of the exploiters. First things first...
"There is great chaos under heaven; the situation is excellent."

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Re: The Long Ecological Revolution

Post by blindpig » Fri Oct 10, 2025 2:24 pm

As Climate Change Accelerates It Fades Into The Media & Political Background
Roger Boyd
Oct 08, 2025

I could provide lots of different charts and facts to show that anthropogenic climate change is accelerating, but one graph provides all the proof that is needed. Its one that should be on the news, and discussed by politicians, very regularly. The energy imbalance of the Northern Hemisphere, incoming long wave radiation - outgoing long wave radiation.

Image

The underlying driver is of course the continued increase in greenhouse gases in the atmosphere each year. In 2023 the US National Oceanographic & Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Annual Greenhouse Gas Index (AGGI) increased by the equivalent of 4 ppm of carbon dioxide, same as in 2021, 2022 and 2023. Interestingly, the 2024 index has still not been published perhaps to do with the Trump administration’s climate policies and the budget cuts and layoffs at NOAA. Given that global atmospheric CO2 levels jumped by 3.77 ppm in 2024 vs. 2.74 ppm in 2023, and the increase in methane (CH4) and Nitrous Oxide (N2O) was higher in 2024 than 2023, we can assume that the AGGI will have increased by at least 5 ppm CO2 equivalent and perhaps even more. In 2025 it will probably fall back to 4 due to the La Nina conditions.

But there is another driver, and that is the reduction of the anthropogenic air pollution that acts to reflect energy back out to space before it reaches the Earth’s surface. In the mid-2010s the Chinese Party-state got serious about removing the very high levels of air pollution, resulting in the blue skies above Chinese cities that we see today. But without that pollution, more and more of the Sun’s energy gets through to the Earth’s surface.

Then in 2020, the World Maritime Organization implemented its 85% reduction in the amount of sulphur allowed in shipping fuels; to 0.5%. And hey presto, the clouds above the main shipping routes (all in the Northern Hemisphere) started to disappear and surface temperatures started to jump. As with the acceleration in the big jump in absorbed solar radiation from 2020 onwards. Even the WMO is starting to wake up to the climate impact of these reductions, but as with any competent bureaucracy that does not want to take any blame nor suddenly reverse a previous decision they are working to obfuscate the linkages and delay action by calling for extra analysis. Soon a committee will be set up to study the matter that will take years to reach a still obfuscated conclusion. From a September 5th 2025 WMO press release:

International regulations reducing sulphur emissions in shipping fuels have improved air quality and successfully cut premature deaths and childhood asthma. But they also had a measurable impact on reducing the cooling effect of sulphate aerosols, slightly accelerating global warming.

Disentangling complex interplay between aerosols, reactive gases and long-lived greenhouse gases is a difficult task and a proper understanding of these interactions will help in developing better mitigation measures for both climate and air quality. In this context, it is important to take an integrated approach to managing emissions, not only to protect the climate but also ecosystem and human health.


This has the feeling of watching a train in the process of crashing while the train regulation authority states that it needs further study to know whether or not the train is crashing. As I have explained earlier, the authorities that regulate Mediterranean shipping decided to double down and reduced the allowable amount of sulphur by another 80% reduction; to 0.1% in May of 2025. If Leon Simons is correct, and the biggest drop in the cooling effects of sulphur shipping fuels is as they approach zero then the Mediterranean (and the shipping routes in and out of the Mediterranean) is in for a very rapid warming. Most especially the Western Mediterranean. Thankfully, it seems that the WMO will at least not follow this example.

Rahmstorf and Foster have smoothed out the natural variability in the different temperature data sets and find an increase of 0.43 degrees centigrade in the global average surface temperature per decade - a major acceleration in the pace of climate change. With 2 degrees being crossed in the mid 2030s, and 2.5 degrees in the late 2040s, and 3 degrees as early as 2054. As the authors note, the pace could quicken further as feedbacks are triggered.

Image

Now, the global average surface temperature is not a perfect gauge of the speed of climate change as so much of absorbed solar radiation may be going into the deep oceans and getting used to melt land and sea ice. The amount of energy required to drive the state change between frozen and liquid water is extremely high, 334 joules per gram compared to only 4.184 joules per gram to increase the temperature of liquid water by one degree centigrade. So a lot of that incoming solar radiation can be used in melting land and sea ice. In addition, the now liquid water tends not to contain salt and can therefore float on top of the denser but warmer water underneath - creating a localized cooling effect. This is the “cold blob” we see in the Atlantic Ocean south of Greenland and also the driver of a possible shutdown of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Current (AMOC) that carries warmer waters northwards in the Atlantic Ocean. So for a number of decades, climate change could actually lead to a drop in temperatures in the North Atlantic and parts of Europe while at the same time driving Hansen’s “storms of my grandchildren” due to the temperature gradient created in the Atlantic. Climate change is complex, that’s why measures of atmospheric greenhouse gases and absorbed solar radiation are the best measures.

In 2024, the global average surface temperature was 1.54 degrees above the late nineteenth century UN IPCC benchmark. Which is itself not really a measure of temperature increase from pre-industrial time, as that would have to be measured against 1750. But such a measure would add on 0.2 degrees centigrade, to 1.74 degrees centigrade in 2024, so like a good bureaucracy the UN IPCC compromised on the late nineteenth century benchmark. Just like the political decisions to make the measure of dangerous climate change 2 degrees centigrade instead of 1 degree centigrade, and to include mythical amounts of carbon capture as part of the greenhouse gas projections. A recent study has shown that the amount of carbon that could be safely stored is far below that previously assumed:

The risk of earthquakes, engineering failures or territorial disputes meant that less than 1,500 gigatonnes could be safely stored, they found, compared with previous estimates of up to 40,000 GT … Carbon storage should be seen as a “scarce resource” rather than “an unlimited solution to bring our climate back to a safe level”, said Joeri Rogelj, one of the study authors and director of research at Imperial’s Grantham Institute … The technology remains at an early stage, with just 600,000 tonnes of CO₂ stored underground every year [vs. the 8.7GT annually assumed by the UN IPCC], according to a report led by Oxford’s Smith School of Enterprise and the Environment.

This climate change acceleration is with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) being in an extremely negative, climate cooling, phase since the late 2010s. With the El Nino giving way to a La Nina the global average surface temperature is moderating somewhat to perhaps 1.4 degrees centigrade above the late nineteenth century; which is really 1.6 above pre-industrial times.

But thats a global average and the vast majority of the global population lives in the Northern Hemisphere which warms up faster than the Souther Hemisphere due to it having more land surface vs. sea surface. During a previous “hot house” Earth climate, the Southern Hemisphere took longer to flip to the hot house because of this. This effect is of course now being exacerbated by the reductions in sulphur emissions both within China, the main global shipping routes, and within the Mediterranean area.

The major positive feedback of the Northern Boreal Forests has already tipped, as the increasing massive forest fires have turned this huge area from a carbon sink into a significant carbon source. As we can see right now, the forests and vegetation of the countries bordering/near to the Mediterranean (Portugal, Spain, Greece etc.) are also being turned into a carbon source. The same with the permafrost areas which are degrading, with the organic material trapped in them being consumed by bacteria that produces both carbon dioxide (dry conditions) and methane (wet conditions). Melting land and sea ice also replaces reflective ice with absorbent dark land and sea waters. We are into feedbacks already and still plowing ahead.

The actual signs of a chaotic shift from one Earth climate equilibrium to another are proliferating, while political leaders do their best to either deny, downplay or ignore this pending chaotic shift. The inertia provided by the Western oligarchies against any changes that would threaten their wealth and power, and their ability to exploit the rest, is incredibly powerful. Especially when they have bought and paid for the politicians, other state actors, the media, and the judiciary. Even in China, the focus is on continued economic growth both to raise living standards and to win the geopolitical competition with the West. At the same time taking active measures, such as the massive South to North water project, that will give modern Chinese society a much better chance of surviving climate chaos.

Across the world, increasing droughts, destructive rainfall patterns and a breaking down of normal seasonal weather patterns are negatively affecting agriculture. For example in Europe:

The Gurkenflieger (cucumber plane) used to roll proudly through his fields with farmhands in the wings plucking vegetables to make salty-sweet-sour Spreewald gherkins. Goebel stopped using it for production five years ago – his pickles could not compete with supermarket prices – and a recent experiment letting tourists ride inside generated enthusiasm but little profit.

Now, the Gurkenflieger joins the ranks of ageing machines and four hectares of woodland that Goebel has sold off to manage a lack of liquidity as bank loans and employee salaries collide with volatile weather. This year’s drought has dried out his crops and cut yields by 40-75% of the average for the last two decades.


In the United Kingdom:

Adam Beer, an organic farmer in south-west England, said he hadn’t seen proper rain for months when he planted cabbages and cauliflowers in the wake of the heatwave that scorched Europe in early July. He made sure to irrigate his field once before and twice after placing the four-inch shoots in the frail soil.

But within a week, he said, the young green plants had turned “either completely invisible, or so dry you could crumble them into dust.”

Beer had expected to lose half the crop to the hot and dry weather but instead found 95% had been wiped out. “Your heart just drops,” he said. “It’s devastating.”


The predicted collapse of the global insurance industry due to escalating climate related losses is continuing apace, as insurers work desperately to maintain solvency by reducing coverage and raising premiums to exorbitant levels.

We now know that the whole US south west was settled during an abnormal period of water availability, which was an exception to its normal aridity. With a swing back to that aridity, enhanced by climate change, the massive farming areas and major cities of that area become less and less tenable. There will of course be variations along the way that politicians will point to as evidence of recovery, but the trend is very obvious. With farming on the mid-west High Plains threatening to deplete the massive multi-state Ogallala Aquifer within decades.

And what are governments doing about this? In the US we have a “drill baby, drill” outright climate denier in the Whitehouse, with the US Department of Energy now banning any words to do with climate change!

The Energy Department has added “climate change,” “green” and “decarbonization” to its growing “list of words to avoid” at its Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, according to an email issued Friday and obtained by POLITICO.

In Canada, we have a prime minister promising to make the country an energy (i.e. fossil fuel) superpower. The real intent is hidden in the last bullet point of this Liberal Party document, after all the blather about clean energy:

investing in Canada’s conventional [my italics] and clean energy potential

With the Canadian prime minister from Goldman Sachs already canning carbon taxes, “pausing” the EV purchase subsidies, and pushing Canada to increase war making expenditures. And now we have European politicians questioning the European Union’s climate targets. We are in the process of watching the train crash on our screens every day, but of course the dots are never properly connected and the tone is always one of downplaying the risks involved.

The climate crisis will not be televised, as media climate coverage peaked around 2009 and then “fell off a cliff” never to recover. There was another burst of media coverage around 2021, but that has now rapidly fallen off. At the same time, there is still a massively-funded climate change denial and obfuscation complex that intentionally muddies the waters of accepted science; taking its playbook from the cigarette manufacturers anti-regulation propaganda campaigns of yesteryear. A good discussion below of how governments just ignored the Paris Agreement, and the incredible flip flop of leaders such as Canada’s Carney from climate action support to building a fossil fuel energy “superpower”. Still pushing the eco-modernist BS though, and not treating climate change as if it is the very immediate problem that it is. A good example of how the media put people to sleep on this issue.



And the other media option, utter BS and lies; as with the Wall Street Journal piece below. With the fake Nobel prize winner (Alfred Nobel himself did not consider economics worthy of a Nobel, so the central bank of Sweden came up with an ersatz Nobel to make the economics children feel better about their fake science) Ted Nordhaus featured to spread his utter unscientific nonsense. If there ever was a perfect display of why mainstream economics should be cast down the toilet and flushed away it is Ted Nordhaus.



Welcome to the era of climate chaos that will rein while the Earth moves from one stable climate equilibrium, the one that supported the development of human civilization, to another hotter and less amenable to humanity one; while those who are supposed to inform either actively mislead, or fail to educate, the public.

Will there be a point of utter crisis where “humanity”, in reality the collective ruling classes, get together to attempt some last ditch attempt to stave off disaster? Possibly, but that will have to wait until at least the 2030s, and who knows what the climate will be like by then. Two degrees and above here we come.

https://rogerboyd.substack.com/p/as-cli ... lerates-it

*****

EU Climate Agency Reports World’s Third-Warmest September

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Surface air temperature anomaly as of September 2025. X/ @__fusion

October 9, 2025 Hour: 7:42 am

The global average sea surface temperature in September was 20.72 degrees Celsius.
On Thursday, the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) informed that the world has just experienced its third warmest September on record, with land and sea surface temperatures remaining persistently high.

The EU’s climate monitoring network said that the global average surface temperature in September this year was 16.11 degrees Celsius, down by 0.27 degrees and 0.07 degrees from the same month in 2023 and 2024, respectively, but still 1.47 degrees above pre-industrial level.

The global average sea surface temperature in September was 20.72 degrees Celsius, marking the third highest for this month on record. Sea surface temperatures in most of the North Pacific remained significantly above the long-term average, reaching historical highs in some areas.

In contrast, sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific were near or below the 1991-2020 average, indicating a neutral phase of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation.


In addition, the monthly sea ice extent in the Arctic was 12 percent below the long-term average for the period, while the monthly sea ice extent in the Antarctic was 5 percent below the long-term average.

Samantha Burgess, strategic lead for climate in the C3S at the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, said that September 2025 ranked as the third warmest September on record, only less than 0.1 degrees Celsius cooler than September 2024.

“A year on, the global temperature context remains much the same, with persistently high land and sea surface temperatures reflecting the continuing influence of greenhouse gas accumulation in the atmosphere,” she said.

https://www.telesurenglish.net/eu-clima ... september/

*****

Amazon fires cause record-breaking CO2 emissions
October 9, 2025

700% increase means most Amazon greenhouse gas in 2024 came from fires, not deforestation

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The Amazon has suffered its most destructive fire season in more than two decades, releasing a staggering 791 million tons of carbon dioxide—on par with Germany’s annual emissions. Scientists found that for the first time, fire-driven degradation, not deforestation, was the main source of carbon emissions, signaling a dangerous shift in the rainforest’s decline.

A new study by researchers at the European Commission’s Joint Research Centre reveals that the Amazon rainforest has just undergone its most devastating forest fire season in over two decades, which triggered record-breaking carbon emissions and exposed the region’s growing ecological fragility despite a slowing trend in deforestation. The 2024 fires released an estimated 791 million tons of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere, which roughly equates to the annual emissions of Germany. This marks a sevenfold increase from the average of the previous two years.

According to the study published in Biogeosciences, 3.3 million hectares of Amazon forest were impacted by fires last year alone. This extraordinary surge in fire activity is likely driven by a combination of extreme drought stress exacerbated by climate change, forest fragmentation, and land-use mismanagement (e.g., escape fires or criminal fires by land grabbers), leading to significant forest degradation. For the first time in the analysis covering 2022-2024, fire-induced degradation has overtaken deforestation as the primary driver of carbon emissions in the Amazon.

The geographical spread of the fires was equally alarming. In Brazil, 2024 marked the highest level of emissions from forest degradation on record. In Bolivia, fires affected over 9% of the country’s remaining intact forest cover, which is a dramatic blow to a region that has historically served as a vital biodiversity reservoir and carbon sink.

While past reports have highlighted the dangers of deforestation, this study spotlights a more insidious threat: fire-driven degradation that erodes forest integrity without necessarily clearing it. Degraded forests may look intact from above, but they lose a significant portion of their biomass and ecological function. Unlike clear-cut areas, these degraded forests often fall through the cracks of national accounting systems and international policy frameworks.

The study calls for immediate and coordinated action to reduce fire use, strengthen forest protection policies, and support local and Indigenous stewardship efforts. It also highlights the need for enhanced international climate finance mechanisms that recognize and address forest degradation, not just deforestation.

https://climateandcapitalism.com/2025/1 ... emissions/

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Today’s dried Rabbit Fish are smaller.

The Sea kept giving, until it couldn’t
Originally published: Pressenza on October 4, 2025 by George Banez (more by Pressenza) (Posted Oct 09, 2025)

“Wake up!” I heard my late mother say. I remember not budging. The faint flashes my half-opened eyes caught appeared more like midnight stars. We, four children and mom, likely went to bed at eight that night because we had nothing else to do. The entire island had no running electricity.

Even before I could fully engage, I sensed everyone’s glee and urgency. I listened to the joyful chatter. And from the glow around the charcoal pit, I saw faces and movement. Fishermen were hauling their catch, while the women roasted the freshly caught fish–lots of them.

The new moon of April, or May, made it easy to catch plenty of adult rabbit fish, Siganus fuscescens, so named for its darker appearance. Known to mother’s clan only as “Bataway,” this Mottled Spinefoot rabbit fish came in large schools. They foraged on algae and seagrass in beds and coral reefs between Cagraray Island, where my late great-grandparents lived, and Cagbulauan, the island across the narrow strait.

But I did not know any of that then. I must have been seven or eight years old, the youngest of four kids. Also, my mother left town decades earlier to study in the capital, Manila, some 310 miles (500 km) away. I was born to her late in life in that city. So, I had no clue what the early dawn commotion was about.

On this, during our annual summer visit to my late grandfather’s coconut plantation in Cagraray Island, we stayed at the house of one of the tenant farmers. The one-room hut sat about 30 feet from the western shore of the passage.

Already unenthused about the heavy mud on this shore, we children could also not appreciate its thick mangrove forests. They stood in the way of a picture-perfect beach. Little did we know that my late grandfather, Victor, chose this parcel of land because of the mangroves. They nurtured lots of delectable mud crabs, Scylla serrata, called “Hâ-nit” in the local dialect. Those intact mangroves augmented fish abundance. They directly supported seagrass and reef ecosystems where schools of “Bataway” grazed.

Mother woke us up so we could eat “dinarang.” The word referred to “anything grilled” but in that context, it meant charcoal grilled fresh “Bataway.” In the city, we only knew or ate “Bataway” as dried fish. So, savoring it cooked right out of the boat at first light was worth waking us up, I guessed. With no refrigeration, fish would have started to spoil had we waited for daylight. So, islanders dried “Bataway” to preserve them.

Nothing Can Compare
Treasured by my mother’s big extended family, both the dried fish and the process of drying evoked childhood memories of the bounty of the seas around them. Family spoke of helping to butterfly open boatloads of rabbit fish, washing them in sea water, then drying them under intense sun. A day or two after, they washed them again in seawater before a second drying.

With no extra salt added, the dried fish meat remained leathery in texture, but crispy when fried. The family called them “Badî.” Preserved, they lasted for months and could be shipped to family living elsewhere. Back then, they were between 6 to 8 inches long. And one or two pieces could be eaten with a vinegar dip, rice, and fried egg as a breakfast staple, like bacon was to the younger generation.

Still, nothing compared to eating “Bataway” fresh. The clean-tasting flesh was tender, moist, flaky, and delicately sweet. Even more unexpected to the young me was the deliciousness of sweet potatoes grilled over the same charcoal bed. Literally soil to grill fresh, the sweet potatoes were dug the previous afternoon. So, even by the following daybreak, the sugars in them had not been altered or completely degraded.

The natural sweetness and velvety texture of fresh sweet potatoes paired with grilled “Bataway” was a match made in heaven. Yet more gifts came from the sea for us to enjoy. Pregnant female rabbit fish yielded “piga,” their roe or eggs to us humans. They were fried when fresh or preserved in brine to keep. The other endowment to the family, “Kuyog,” was an umami-rich, thick fish sauce condiment. Made by fermenting the inch-long “Bataway” juveniles, “Kuyog” went well with sweet potato or rice, straight from the jar or sautéed with aromatics.

The Sea’s Generosity Once Ran Deep
By the time we were feasting on grilled rabbit fish that summer in the ‘70s, my grandfather, Victor (1891-1950 ), had long passed away. And so did his father, my great grandfather Gaspar (1870-1942). Married at 17 to my great-grandmother Petronila (1872-1955), Gaspar woke up at 3 am to fish for a living.

Their house stood on the shoreline of Nagtapis hamlet in Cagraray Island. Petronilla, also up that early, made mats out of the processed leaves of “Karagumoy,” or Pandanus simplex. She also planted sweet potatoes in their small plot in the hills.

Together, they saved enough to invest in a “parao,” the sailboat Gaspar needed to go deep-sea fishing outside the strait. Soon after, he eventually became the middleman. He traded fish right there in the middle of the sea. He bought from other fishmen big predator fish, like “Bangkulis” Yellow fin Tuna or “Malasugi,” Blue Marlin, caught in the deeper Lagonoy Gulf that opened into the Pacific Ocean. There, he sold fish to buyers from towns and cities along the Gulf; my mother told me.

Gaspar had made enough money from other business ventures to send Victor, his first-born, to study in a boarding school in Manila at 14. When Victor returned after college, he settled in the town of Bacacay, the municipal center. Back then, it was a day-long journey by “parao” from Nagtapis, their home in Cagraray Island.

Mother grew up in Bacacay, a town on the southwestern shores of a sound-like expanse separated from Lagonoy Gulf by the islands of San Miguel and Cagraray. Her favorite fish growing up was “Sibubog,” or Indian scad, a fish that swims in fast-moving schools along coastal oceanic waters.

Its slender, elongated, and silver body bear a striking resemblance to “Galunggong,” the Mackerel scad, a popular, staple fish in Manila. Both are easily mistaken for being the same. Part of the same genus, Decapterus, the two likely belong to different species.

But mother refused to eat “Galunggong.” She craved “Sibubog,” instead. Unlike “Bataway” that fed on algae and seagrass, “Sibubog” ate animal-like planktons, or zooplanktons, and crustaceans, tiny shrimp-like creatures. As such, they were moderately oily, pairing well with Filipino vinegar, other souring agents, and soy sauce.

The Silence Beneath the Waves
Today, preference for certain fish flavor or freshness is perhaps the least of concerns. The Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) released in August the “Fisheries Situation Report for April to June 2025”. It indicated a 2.6% decrease in the total volume (in metric tons) of fisheries. Production was down from the same quarter the previous year in 2024 for both commercial and marine municipal fisheries.

Noting the PSA report for 2024, Oceana, an international organization dedicated to oceans, shared the findings that fisheries output declined by 5% in 2024. For marine municipal fisheries, the drop was at 8.8% from 2023.

In 2009, scientists from Bicol and Kochi universities in the Philippines and Japan, respectively reported their study on the overfishing of three Siganid species in Lagonoy Gulf. These species belong to the same family as “Bataway.” In fact, one of the three is considered synonymous to the “Bataway” species.

The scientists wrote: “Exploitation rates of three species were higher by 34-64% beyond the level that would be sustainable.” They added that: “Capture lengths were generally lower than their reported maturity size.” That meant fish were caught before they could possibly reproduce. This explains why dried “Bataway” sold in markets today appear to be between 4-6 inches in length.

It had only been a century since my great-grandfather Gaspar’s family flourished on the bounty of the sea. In 2019, the Philippine Journal of Fisheries, published the “Assessment of Fishery Resources in the Lagonoy Gulf, Philippines.” The authors from the Bureau of Fisheries and Aquatic Resources (BFAR) noted that “Lagonoy Gulf suffers from overexploitation.”

Most of Gaspar’s direct descendants, including my mother, made their living far from Cagraray Island. They are gone now. But the voices I heard in those early dawn hours still echo. They mingle with the memory of the soft lapping of waves against the muddy shore. But what was once an invitation to feast now tolls like muffled alarm.

https://mronline.org/2025/10/09/the-sea ... t-couldnt/

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Venezuela hosts World Congress in Defense of Mother Earth

The event positions the South American country as the global epicenter of debate and action for the protection of the planet.

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The Congress, which will run until Friday, October 10 at the Simón Bolívar Park Convention Center, includes an agenda that seeks to articulate a global agenda for life and against extractivism. The day began with the shamanic rite “Blessing to Mother Earth”. Photo:

October 9, 2025 Hour: 5:39 pm

On Thursday, October 9, the World Congress in Defense of Mother Earth was held in the city of Caracas, the capital of Venezuela, an international meeting organized by the Ministry of People’s Power for Ecosocialism that brought together more than three thousand participants including leaders, activists, scientists and representatives from 62 countries.

The sectoral vice president of Science, Technology, Education and Health, Gabriela Jiménez, was in charge of inaugurating the event, and in her speech she highlighted the importance of recognizing the Earth and its components as a living being, essential for a true transformation of the global environmental paradigm.

In her speech, Minister Gabriela Jiménez referred to a study carried out with Yanomami communities in Venezuela, which showed positive results in their microbiota, a fact that she linked to their connection with the natural environment and their diet.

The also sectoral vice president of Science, Technology, Education and Health said that the temperature of the Caribbean Sea suffers an increase of more than 1.5 degrees. Similarly, he warned that by 2025, “that same Amazon basin and the Pacific basin” will face twice as many cyclones and hurricanes, in addition to an increase in evaporation from the sea and abrupt rains that affect biodiversity and human coexistence.

Jiménez added that the climate changes facing the planet impact agricultural activity, human lives and biodiversity, while stressing that the solidarity and voice of the peoples of the world are raised to confront these environmental consequences.

In this sense, the Venezuelan official highlighted the need for governments and nations of the world to be truly concerned about the impact of climate change and urged participants to strengthen the defense of biodiversity, which is affected by the neoliberal-capitalist system that establishes an agenda to destroy, extract and threaten armed conflicts in the regions.

“The climate crisis is attributable to the action of predatory capitalism,” Jiménez said, and considered that instead of “green bonds or green revolution,” the “revolution of the peoples” is needed to face this global emergency.

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In the same vein, the coordinator of the Landless Workers’ Movement of Brazil, João Pedro Stédile, proposed the holding of a world march on November 15 to denounce those responsible for environmental deterioration and demand “enough to the capitalists, their governments and enough to imperialism.” Stédile said that the current crisis is not only environmental or climatic, but a “crisis produced by the capitalist mode of production” and its transnational corporations.

The coordinator of the Brazilian political-social movement proposed organizing an “Alternative Summit” in the city of Belém, Brazil, between November 12 and 16, in preparation for the next COP30 of the United Nations Organization that will be held from November 10 to 21.

Also present at the debate was the Minister of Culture, Ernesto Villegas, who announced the adoption of the concept of “biocultural zones”, used in Colombia, to eliminate the “absurd barrier” between the ecosystem and cultural dynamics.

Villegas stressed that “today in the Caribbean the fate of humanity is being debated,” alluding to the aggressions of the U.S. government in the region.

In turn, the Minister of Ecosocialism, Ricardo Molina, suggested that environmental education should be integrated as a transversal training process. “Environmental education has to make the population understand that it is a cultural issue, it is a way of living in harmony with mother earth,” he said.

To this end, the creation of nine working groups on issues such as environmental justice and ecological sovereignty is planned.

Similarly, Bolivian Vice President David Choquehuanca was present at this meeting in which he proposed the creation of procedures for oversight, transparency and penalties for those who threaten the environment and promote the climate crisis. Choquehuanca based the proposal on the historical events of struggle against colonizers, capitalists and exploiters, whom he blamed for the crisis, and highlighted the respect due to Mother Earth in the face of the capitalist system of domination.

For her part, the Minister for Indigenous Peoples of Venezuela, Clara Vidal, said that it is the right time to unify criteria. He assured that the fight against “savage capitalism” is a historic battle in defense of life. “We do not announce war, we want peace,” he declared.

https://www.telesurenglish.net/venezuel ... her-earth/
"There is great chaos under heaven; the situation is excellent."

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