Footnotes from the Ukrainian "Crisis"; New High-Points in Cynicism Part V

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Re: Footnotes from the Ukrainian "Crisis"; New High-Points in Cynicism Part V

Post by blindpig » Mon May 27, 2024 4:30 pm

Russian Army Forays into the Kharkiv Region and its Strategy of ‘Multiple Bites’
Posted by INTERNATIONALIST 360° on MAY 27, 2024
Dmitri Kovalevich

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Shortly after the inauguration of Russian president Vladimir Putin on May 7 for another seven-year term, the Russian armed forces opened a new front in Kharkiv oblast (province) in Ukraine’s northeast along the pre-war Russian border. A number of small settlements have been captured; the latest to fall is the town of Vovchansk (pre-war population of 17,000), some 70 km north and east of Kharkiv city. Ukrainian troops were unprepared for this turn of events, while the number of Russian troops involved was rather small, at 2,000 to 4,000.

Kiev regime unable to build defensive fortifications

The new Russian forays demonstrate once again the high level of corruption prevailing in Ukraine, particularly as regards the construction of defensive lines on which its army units rely when needed. Ukraine regime president Volodymyr Zelensky told the country one month ago that defensive lines were ready in the Kharkiv region, but in fact, they hardly exist. Some of the engineering structures destined for these lines—the so-called ‘dragon’s teeth’ anti-tank fortifications–were indeed delivered back in 2023 but were simply piled in a heap.

‘Where are the fortifications?’ screams a May 13 headline in Ukrayinska Pravda. The sub-headline reads: ‘The regional military administration of Kharkiv paid millions to fictitious companies’. According to the report, “Hundreds of millions of hryvnias (100 million hryvnia equals US$2.5 million) were probably stolen during the construction of fortifications in the Kharkiv region where the Russian Armed Forces are now actively advancing.” The article explains that directors of several companies hired to build the fortifications have past criminal convictions or are facing new ones and that several ‘winners’ of government contracts for such work were not even informed of their good fortune.

The Ukrainian military has abandoned numerous positions during the recent Russian forays and is citing the corruption they have witnessed as an explanation. Ukrainian serviceman Denis Yaroslavsky told the UNIAN news agency on May 13, “The first line of fortifications and mines simply did not exist… In two years, there should have been concrete fortifications three stories deep along the Ukrainian border! But there are not even mines. We conclude that this is either insane theft or willful sabotage.”

The Sputnik Russian news agency reported way back in 2016 on the fate of the ‘European Wall’ to separate Ukraine from Russia which was touted by leaders of the February 2014 coup in Ukraine. It read, “One of Ukraine’s most widely discussed and costly projects from the times of the former Prime Minister Yatsenyuk – a giant wall on the border with Russia dubbed no less than ‘The European Rampart’ turns out to be a figment of our collective imagination.” The report explained that back then, billions of hryvnia were earmarked for this project but almost nothing was built.

In 2023 and 2024, respectively, Ukrainian troops faced the same problem of poor or non-existent defensive fortifications during Russian offensives to take cities of Artyomovsk (called ‘Bakhmut’ in Ukraine) in 2023 and Avdeevka in early 2024, both located in what is now the Donetsk Republic of the Russian Federation(Donbass region). The defensive positions to which Ukrainian troops were ordered to withdraw in both occasions were ‘fortified’ only on paper. In reality, the fortifications were just a chaotic set of shallow pits.

“It’s the world’s fault,” Zelensky told a reporter for ABC News (U.S.) on May 16. “They gave the opportunity for Putin to occupy [Ukraine territory], but now the world can help.” The ABC report explained, “The situation in Ukraine is so serious that President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has canceled a planned trip to Spain and come straight to Kharkiv, the country’s second-largest city. The city is in real danger from Russian advances.”

Ukrainian intelligence is reporting that the Russian army is also preparing to invade the adjacent, northern border oblast of Sumy. The capital cities of Sumy and Kharkiv are app. 120 km apart. As it turns out, the fortifications protecting Sumy are also fictitious, although large sums have been spent on them. Strana.ua writes on Telegram, “In the Sumy region, the ‘dragon’s teeth’ intended for the construction of defensive lines have been dumped on the side of roads. This is reported by the Black Box Face Club community on Instagram along with relevant photos. Previously, a similar photo was published in the Kharkiv region, where the Russians are now advancing.”

Ukraine’s chronic inability to build fortifications is partly a consequence of its inability to implement any major construction or infrastructure project since it seceded from the Soviet Union in 1990/1991. Funding for such projects has simply been wasted or stolen.

Western governments and financial institutions have long tried to impose a neoliberal, capitalist economic model on Ukraine, in place of its former planned and state-owned economy. The Western model assumes that the construction of defense facilities would be handled by private businesses. A tender is announced and the company that offers the best price and conditions wins the bid. In practice, however, it is the companies associated with government officials that usually win, while others are simply blocked from participating. Often, a ‘winning’ company has neither equipment nor employees but is a fictitious company registered somewhere in the Virgin Islands or Cyprus. Funds are transferred to the company, no work is done, the company is liquidated, and an ‘investigation’ is then launched that can drag on for years.

In Russia, fortifications are built by engineering troops specifically dedicated to such work. There are no such equivalents in the Ukraine Armed Forces (AFU). These receive all construction materials free of charge from the factories of the Ministry of Defense. These factories do not buy from private businesses all the components necessary for this purpose; these are supplied by state defense enterprises, right down to free food for employees which is produced on large farms operated by the Ministry of Defense.

Of course, there is also corruption in the Russian military; periodically, Russian generals end up in jail. But unlike the Western model of a military-industrial complex, there are no private middlemen in Russia inflating prices several times over and only interested in making a quick profit and sending the money to bank accounts abroad.

Multiple-bite tactics

Strana.ua reported on May 17: “The situation with the Russian offensive in the Kharkiv region, which began exactly one week ago, is unfolding almost identically to the recent Russian breakthroughs in Avdeevka in February 2024 and around Ocheretino and Chasov Yar most recently. The Russians find a weak spot in the defense, strike there, and advance relatively quickly by the standards of the current war at a few kilometers per day. After that, the AFU throws reserves to the places of breakthrough to slow down or stop the advance.”

According to Strana journalists, the Russian army has enough strength to break through the Ukrainian front here and there and take the initiative. Even without a ‘general offensive’, such advances by “a thousand small cuts” drains the resources of the Ukrainian army and are very dangerous for it.

Simply put, the Russian Armed Forces are playing with the AFU, imposing a battle in one place or another, forcing the AFU to constantly move their depleted reserves. The Russian forces have already entered Kharkiv and Sumy regions, in 2022. They left without a fight, judging potential losses and physical damage to be too high. Now they are approaching again; some Russian analysts believe they may yet withdraw again.

The Ukrainian media noticed in 2022, a few days before Russia launched its military intervention into Ukraine, that the unofficial name of the ‘Special Military Operation’, as it was called by Russia initially, was ‘Mongoose Throw’. The name was interpreted as being drawn from the behavior of a mongoose when fighting poisonous snakes – it uses deceptive maneuvers and sharp jumps side-to-side to wear down the snake, then delivers a final blow.

Comparison of tactics through the eyes of a Ukrainian military officer

In mid-May, an interview in the Zerkalo Nedeli weekly with a Ukrainian military officer using the call sign ‘Ronin’ made a lot of noise in Ukraine because it differed sharply from the official assurances by the AFU command that the overall military situation is “under control”. The writer claimed that the military front could soon collapse if there is no significant reinforcements. “We will simply have no one to fight with,” he said. “Yes, there are weapons in our battalion, but there is no one to fire them.”

The Ukraine government has pleaded that it has no money for the war unless and until the U.S. Congress provides a new round of funding. Now it turns out there are fewer and fewer soldiers to use the weaponry, despite the ongoing, forced conscription of men (called ‘kidnappings’ by increasing numbers of Ukrainians).

In the interview, ‘Ronin’ also criticized the quality of previous waves of military recruits, saying that many consisted of alcoholics and others unfit for service as well as people from the impoverished countryside without the money to bribe their way out. Because of Ukraine’s need to quickly replenish military units, the training period has been reduced from three months to one month. He calls the recruitment process “a conveyor belt without military skills being learned”. He contrasts the training of Ukrainian soldiers to that of Russian soldiers. The latter train for six months; their training even includes practice at assaulting fortified areas.

He also criticizes the NATO standards used for training, which he says are detached from the realities of the Ukrainian conflict. “What are ‘NATO standards’? It is like going to a doctor or medic to have a wound treated and they recommend an air evacuation. You explain ‘But there is no air evacuation available.’ Then follows silence.”

“Many of those who have been fighting for a long time and still want to survive in this war react very simply to various kinds of threatening orders by officers: they agree to the order, and then they sit in their dugouts, realizing that the chances of staying alive from such an order are very slim. I can understand them because many orders are downright insane, drawn from crosses and arrows on a map without considering the safety of those who would carry them out.”

‘Ronin’ says many soldiers run away from their units, especially if they are transferred to assault units. Deserters who go AWOL are usually not punished because of their high numbers. If they were all punished, there would be no one left to fight. He adds that financial bonuses available to soldiers for this or that act no longer work as incentives for Ukrainian servicemen, saying money is no good to someone who has lost their life or been crippled for life.

Contrasting the situations of the AFU and the Russian army, Ronin says that Russia’s army is steadily growing and developing, and working on their mistakes. This goes against the propaganda messaging by the Ukrainian government and military. “The other side of this war are not idiots, they are learning. Why have the [U.S.-supplied] Himar and [French-supplied] Excalibur missiles stopped working for us properly? Because Russia has learned to pinpoint their geolocation and shoot them down. They have developed their Lancets [assault drones] which cost a pittance but kill tanks and even kill the [U.S.-supplied] Paladin [self-propelled howitzer], a very costly armament.”

The most dangerous thing for the AFU, according to the Ukrainian military officer, is that the Russians are fighting systemically. “Their paratroopers have already realized what not to do as they are trying to take care of their men. Their technique is as follows. They try to hit the entire front, and when they see a weak spot, they start hitting there with all their forces. They know very well how to dig in quickly. As soon as they become engaged, they dig in. They may lose people, but it is very difficult to force them out of there.”

In Ukraine, ‘Ronin’ says, the government and military are guilty of confusing the ‘reality’ as presented by media with reality itself. “The media president has become the president of the country, but he continues to live a media reality,” the Ukrainian military officer says in reference to Zelensky, who was a television star before entering politics in the 2019 presidential election.

Kidnappings on Blinken’s orders

Against the background of the failures near Kharkiv, United States Secretary of State Anthony Blinken urgently came to Kyiv on May 14 and issued a call for more Ukrainians to be conscripted. Forcible conscriptions in Ukraine have taken on the character of daily kidnappings from homes, streets, and workplaces, accompanied by beatings of those who resist being taken. Along Ukraine’s border, police and border guards have begun shooting Ukrainians fleeing the country. On May 15, a man trying to cross into Romania ignored ‘warning shots’; one of them happened to strike him in the head and kill him.

The Western media has long talked about the totalitarian regime of the former East Germany [German Democratic Republic] which prevented Germans from leaving the country by building a wall. Ukraine’s ‘wall’, or the idea of one, is treated much differently today, very favorably.

Viktor Andrusiv, a former adviser to the head of the Interior Ministry of Ukraine, calls fugitives from Ukraine “gypsies”, using an old Nazi term and tradition of arousing racist animosity. “If you are an evader [conscription evader], you deliberately ran away. So you have no right to say that you are Ukrainian; you are a Gypsy. You chose the Gypsy life. Some believe that evaders who fled abroad are ‘happy’. Happy about what? Living in some shipping container for the rest of their lives? Working only in black market jobs because they don’t know the language or their qualifications are not recognized? These are people who in the course of saving their lives have condemned themselves to dishonor.”

Failure of the strategy to pressure the Global South

Blinken’s unexpected visit to Ukraine on May 14 was linked to preparations for a so-called ‘peace summit’ to take place in Switzerland in June. Zelensky is trying to get as many countries as possible from the Global South to attend. He told media on the day of Blinken’s visit, “We discussed preparations for the Global Peace Summit. It is important to us that the United States, President Biden, participate, and that America’s role in maintaining a rules-based global order does not weaken.”

Unfortunately for Zelensky, for his government, and for his Western backers, countries are declining to participate, including China, Brazil, and South Africa. They have said from the beginning that Ukraine should negotiate with Russia if it wants a peace agreement. They say there is no point in holding an international conference to which the Russian Federation is not even invited. Ukrainian media is reporting that of 160 countries invited to Switzerland, only 50 have so far accepted to participate, and almost of these are wealthy Western countries. Russia says even the location is flawed because it no longer considers Switzerland to be a neutral party to the conflict.

A ‘peace summit’ has special importance for Zelensky because his election term as president expires on May 20. Such a summit with him in official attendance would legitimize his continued but now unelected rule.

Ukraine’s rulers are looking backward to the future, staking the country’s future on a subordinate economic, political, and military association with the European Union and the NATO military alliance. But that collection of countries and their ‘rules-based international order’ is in decline, offering nothing more than war and second-class economic status to countries such as Ukraine that are not already members of the select club of imperialist countries.

The outlook held by Russians is quite different. The people of the Russian Federation now consider the Western countries to offer nothing to them—economically, culturally, and spiritually. An example of where Russians are looking for ideas for the future was recently offered by Sergei Naryshkin, director of the Foreign Intelligence Service of Russia and chairman of the Russian Historical Society. He spoke to an academic conference in Moscow in May and said, “Today when Russia is at the forefront of a global change in the world order, very useful applied lessons can be drawn from the experience of the Communist International.”

He said the ideas of the ‘Comintern’ have not stood the test of time, but they were not destructive in their time. In its own way, he says, the Comintern program was “progressive and creative”. He says the popularity of the Communist International was greatly due to its opposition to fascism and Nazism, explaining how in 1923, the organization’s leadership created the World Committee for the Struggle against Fascism, and how the seventh (and last) congress of the ‘Comintern’ in 1935 declared that “an irreconcilable fight against fascism was the task of all left forces.”

In addition, the Comintern experience helped to inspire the anti-colonial and anti-imperialist struggles in Asia that saw China, Korea, and Vietnam win their independence and embark on socialist revolutions.

The conference in Moscow took place in the former headquarters of the Executive Committee of the Communist International in the city. Today, the building is part of the Russian State Social University in Moscow. Sergei Naryshkin is a permanent member of Russia’s Security Council and served as speaker of the State Duma (legislature) from 2011 to 2016.

https://libya360.wordpress.com/2024/05/ ... ple-bites/

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THE DAILY TELEGRAPH (UK): WHY SHOULD I RETURN TO FIGHT?’ UKRAINIAN MEN LIVING ABROAD SAY
MAY 26, 2024
By Roland Oliphant, The Daily Telegraph (UK), 4/28/24

When Russia invaded Ukraine two years ago, Vladimir sent his ex-wife and their four-year-old son abroad for safety.

Like most Ukrainian men, he stayed behind, barred from leaving by martial law. But after two years alone, and having been declared medically unfit to serve, he decided to join the family in Germany.

“A child needs a father,” he said.

Now, he could be stranded after a controversial law stripped fighting age men abroad of consular assistance. Those between 18- and 60-years-old will only be able to replace their passports in the Ukraine, meaning they will have to return to the country – and risk the draft.

The move, designed to help plug a dire manpower gap in the country’s armed forces, addresses long-running tensions over men who managed to evade a ban on foreign travel for the duration of the war. But critics, including some serving soldiers, have warned it may be unconstitutional and will simply encourage those who are already overseas to stay away. Poland has suggested it could even deport Ukrainian men back to their home country for conscription.

For his part, Vladimir, 39, will not be heeding the call and returning: “It was morally difficult [to leave] but I decided my family needs me. I don’t feel any kind of pressure from family or friends to go back. My mates all understand my situation.”

Units undermanned

Ukraine’s military commissariats, or local recruiting offices, were overwhelmed with volunteers in the first months of the invasion. But ebbing enthusiasm and high casualties over the past two years have left many units dangerously undermanned.

Ukrainian and Western military planners have identified the manpower shortage as one of three critical issues that must be addressed if Ukraine is to resist the current Russian offensive and eventually regain the initiative.

“The immediate focus has been on munitions, especially air defence artillery, on fortifications, which includes proper defensive lines, and thirdly, on this question of manpower,” one Western official said of recent talks with Ukraine.

“As far as putting people on planes goes, we have not been asked about that and I don’t imagine being asked about it either,” the official added when asked if his government would send Ukrainian men home.

The Ukrainian government has taken a number of measures to raise new recruits, including lowering the draft age from 27 to 25.

But Wednesday’s announcement appears to have caused some confusion within the Ukrainian government. One Ukrainian official told the Telegraph that they were not entirely sure how the law would work because issues like exemptions for those legitimately unable to fight – such as Vladimir – do not seem to have been addressed.

Dmytro Lazutkin, the press secretary of the Ukrainian ministry of defence, said there were no plans to issue conscription notices overseas.

“The ministry of defence cannot comment on the actions of the foreign ministry. I think it’s pretty unrealistic,” he told Radio Free Europe.

It has also drawn a mixed reaction from Ukraine’s allies. Wladyslaw Kosiniak-Kamysz, Poland’s defence minister, said “Ukrainian citizens have obligations towards the state”, and that Warsaw would help “in ensuring that those who are subject to compulsory military service go to Ukraine”.

German authorities have said some Ukrainian men will be able to extend their residency in the country even if their passports expire as long as there is some way to identify them.

Men between the ages of 18 and 60 have officially been banned from leaving Ukraine since the president Volodymyr Zelensky introduced martial law on the first day of the Russian invasion in 2022.

In practice, many were able to obtain exemptions, either by being declared unfit for military service, having three or more children, or by gaining special permission to travel from the government. Others have tried to leave illegally, some by smuggling themselves across Ukraine’s western borders. Mr Zelensky cracked down on officials abusing exemptions to travel last year. The bar for being passed fit to serve has also been lowered.

The European Union’s statistics agency, Eurostat, says 4.3 million Ukrainians are living in EU countries, 860,000 of them men 18 years of age or older. The British government says it has issued 256,200 visas under its scheme for Ukrainian refugees. It is not clear how many of them were for fighting age men.

Ukrainian men living abroad told the Telegraph they had no plans to return to fight and considered the law unfair.

“The law is not fair”

“My passport is still valid,” 39-year-old Vladimir said, “but I think for many people who came here from occupied areas like Mariupol, the situation is a bit insulting. Russia destroyed their homes, and now their own country is taking a stick to them.”

Volodymyr, a builder from Western Ukraine who has been living and working in the Czech Republic for most of the past eight years, said: “The law is not fair. And all my Ukrainian friends from the Czech Republic, Lutsk and Kyiv think so. Nobody is happy with it. The government is forcing us, and with such laws we will step away from them. We will take citizenship in other countries.”

“People won’t return. The longer the war goes on, the more laws like this are passed, the more people hate Ukraine and the government. Why should I return to fight? For what? Why didn’t the government care about labour migrants like me before the war?”

“Every day we have less and less territory and fewer and fewer people. Some have been killed, others swam the Tisza river just to escape.” The Tisza, a tributary of the Danube, marks a 10-mile stretch of Ukraine’s border with Hungary.

One man, who admitted leaving the country illegally and is currently in Indonesia, said he felt no obligation to fight for the country and considered himself an observer rather than a participant in the war.

Perhaps surprisingly, the law has even drawn criticism from some soldiers. “I absolutely agree with them,” said Nikita Rozhenko, a recruiting sergeant with Ukraine’s Kharkiv-based 113th brigade, when asked what he thought of their opinions. “To tell them they left Ukraine so they are not Ukrainians any more is not normal. We need to invite people back, to greet them gladly, and not tell them they are not Ukrainians. It’s bulls***.”

“This law won’t work properly. It is a political compromise and no one wants to take responsibility. It is not good for the military and it is not good for civilians. It is for everyone and no one.”

Sgt Rozhenko, who lost an eye in the first year of the war but like many wounded is still deemed fit for service and cannot demobilise, admits current recruitment is dire. While his ideal soldier would be 27- to 30-years-old, the average candidate is around 45 or 50, from the social and economic margins of society, and often in poor health.

“The doctors pass them as capable. When they get to their units the commanders see people who are tired, with bad health, some with chronic diseases,” he said.

The fix, he argues, is not threatening people overseas, but allowing people to choose their units.

“No one has listened to the military. The military wants straight recruitment to the brigades without going through the commissariats. It will be much more effective and much fairer. This will lead us to victory and the people will serve where they want, how they want, and with people they want,” he said.

“Lots of people want to serve, they just don’t want to be assigned to a ‘meat brigade’,” he said, using soldier’s slang for units where “low level commanders and high level commanders don’t give a f*** about their people.”

He refused to give examples, but said all soldiers knew who the good and bad units and commanders were.

“Brigades who understand people are very valuable and must be kept alive” would naturally expand and grow stronger, while the poorly one units would wither and eventually disappear, he argues. Ultimately Ukraine would end up with a more efficient and professional military.

“It would be like free market recruitment – and now we have the USSR.”

https://natyliesbaldwin.com/2024/05/the ... broad-say/

(If you had the USSR you would have something worth fighting for, shiteyes.)

*******

About EW...

... and war as continuous process of adaptation.


KYIV — Many U.S.-made satellite-guided munitions in Ukraine have failed to withstand Russian jamming technology, prompting Kyiv to stop using certain types of Western-provided armaments after effectiveness rates plummeted, according to senior Ukrainian military officials and confidential internal Ukrainian assessments obtained by The Washington Post. Russia’s jamming of the guidance systems of modern Western weapons, including Excalibur GPS-guided artillery shells and the High Mobility Artillery Rocket System, or HIMARS, which can fire some U.S.-made rockets with a range of up to 50 miles, has eroded Ukraine’s ability to defend its territory and has left officials in Kyiv urgently seeking help from the Pentagon to obtain upgrades from arms manufacturers. Russia’s ability to combat the high-tech munitions has far-reaching implications for Ukraine and its Western supporters — potentially providing a blueprint for adversaries such as China and Iran — and it is a key reason Moscow’s forces have regained the initiative and are advancing on the battlefield.

Those reports are " confidential" only for Western public, in Russia the performance of NATO (and Russian) weaponry is generally well covered in terms of generalities and Russia's EW capabilities have been characterized as "eye-watering" 7 years ago by none other... than Ben Hodges (before his brain completely melted and he turned into a clown).


A lot has been said about Russian Electronic Warfare Systems in recent years. A good summary might have been offered by Lt. Gen. Ben Hodges, commander of U.S. Army in Europe: He has described Russian EW capabilities in Ukraine as “eye-watering”.

As it is a rule in Pentagon, they discarded those warnings in favor of Hollywood military porn which teaches us that capabilities will stay the same forever, while glorious US SMART munitions will continue to perform as brilliantly as they did on Iraqi outhouses in the desert. Well, life is a bit more complicated than that, and Russia's immense surge capability both industrially and scientifically is still dawning on Washington planners since they simply have no experience whatsoever with what they are observing. Hey, I was on record about this for a while, and here is Lavrov today:

Разговоры официальных лиц США о необходимости разрешить Киеву бить по целям на территории России отражают безысходность Запада и похожи на агонию, заявил министр иностранных дел РФ Сергей Лавров.

Translation: Talk by US officials about the need to allow Kyiv to hit targets on Russian territory reflects the despair of the West and is similar to agony, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said.

Who am I to contradict Lavrov. Read my lips: the US lost the arms race(c).

http://smoothiex12.blogspot.com/2024/05/about-ew.html

******

Kupyansko-Svatovskoe direction: liberation of Ivanovka
May 26, 2024
Rybar

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situation towards the end of May 26, 2024

After the liberation of Kotlyarka and Kislovka, the logical continuation of the offensive operation of the units of the Russian Armed Forces was the capture of Ivanovka . First, Russian troops fired artillery at the populated area, after which they managed to advance and establish control over it. It is noteworthy that information about the capture of Ivanovka appeared several days ago, but until now there was no footage clearly confirming this.

Only a video was published on the Internet with servicemen of the 26th Tank Regiment and the flag they unfurled, which was definitely difficult to link to what was happening in Ivanovka . This is largely due to the fact that the settlement is quite small in size, not to mention its poorly developed infrastructure.

The final confirmation of the liberation of Ivanovka came from the enemy, on whose resources footage appeared of attacks on positions of the Russian Armed Forces within the boundaries of the populated area. At the same time, this is already the third occupied settlement in this area, which indicates the revival of hostilities in the Kupyansk direction .

At the same time, it remains unclear whether the Russian Armed Forces have advanced along the railway between Kislovka and Ivanovka . On the one hand, this would be quite logical, on the other hand, the Ukrainian Armed Forces most likely erected strongholds in wide forest belts on both sides of the highway.

Also today, the Russian Ministry of Defense announced the release of Berestovoy . However, so far only footage has appeared on the Internet that shows only partial control. However, judging by them, Russian troops occupied at least half of the village, and Berestovoe is a fairly small settlement, so its liberation cannot be ruled out.

https://rybar.ru/kupyansko-svatovskoe-n ... -ivanovki/

Avdeevsky direction: battles in the Ocheretino - Solovyevo sector, advance of the Russian Armed Forces to Yasnobrodovka
May 26, 2024
Rybar

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situation as of 14.00 May 26, 2024

In the Avdeevsky direction , despite the “switch of attention” to the Kharkov region, battles and assault operations of the Russian Armed Forces do not stop.

To the northwest of Ocheretino there was a new attempt to storm Novoaleksandrovka . The armored group reached the outskirts of the village, but came under artillery and UAV attacks. Based on the objective control footage, it is unclear whether they managed to get hold of the building, but the very fact of the attack confirms the absence of the enemy in the forest belts to the southeast of the village.

To the west of Ocheretino, assault groups are advancing through wide forest belts on both sides along the railway, and heavy fighting is taking place. East of Sokol, the situation also remains difficult. The enemy from the 47th mechanized brigade is conducting an active defense, without stopping counterattacks.

According to footage that appeared online, including footage of the evacuation of the enemy, the forest belt south of the railway came under the control of Russian troops some time ago. The enemy’s M2A2 ODS-SA Bradley also moved there, apparently with the aim of landing troops or simply attacking the landing, but was knocked out by an FPV drone strike.

South-west of Solovyevo, Russian attack aircraft are advancing from the south from the Ocheretino gully in the direction of Novopokrovsky , but even here the enemy is actively counterattacking with the support of armored vehicles.

The situation in the “pocket” between Berdychi and Novobakhmutovka remains in the “fog of war.” Taking into account the configuration of the forest belts and the terrain, the presence of the enemy may remain there. Fighting also continues to the west of Semenovka .

After the final capture of Umansky on May 23-24, the Russian Armed Forces advanced in the direction of Yasnobrodovka along the S051801 highway and the adjacent forest belt. Yasnobrodovka itself is a small village, only one of the roads to which remained under enemy control. Next comes a lowland, which may allow increased pressure on Karlovka and somewhat facilitate the advance to Netailovo . However, the western bank of the Karlovskoe Reservoir is much higher than the eastern one and is strongly fortified. The M30 highway also runs there , convenient for the transfer of enemy reinforcements from Selidovo .

https://rybar.ru/avdeevskoe-napravlenie ... obrodovke/

Vremyevskoye direction: advance of the RF Armed Forces in the Staromayorskoye - Urozhainoye section
May 26, 2024
Rybar

Image

situation towards the end of May 26, 2024

Throughout the week, Russian troops continue to expand the zone of control in the Vremyevsky direction , including at the Staromayorskoye-Urozhainoye line .

In Staromayorsky, the assault detachments of the Russian Armed Forces have almost reached the northwestern outskirts of the settlement - at the moment, they only have to occupy about 100 meters on Verkhnaya Street . Meanwhile, in the center of the village, Russian fighters managed to occupy several more houses on Kooperativnaya Street .

Between Staromayorsky and Urozhayny, Russian units finally cleared out the “pocket” in the low-lying bed of the Mokrye Yaly River. Apparently, if Ukrainian formations remained in this area until recently, they were extremely few in number.

In Urozhainy , Russian Armed Forces have established themselves in low-rise buildings on the southern outskirts of the village - Russian troops control several dozen houses (or what is left of them) on Tsentralnaya and Sadovaya streets .

The enemy from time to time attempts counterattacks along the entire front, but each of them is successfully stopped by small arms and artillery fire. At the same time, Russian troops are striking at firing points and strongholds of the Ukrainian Armed Forces along the entire line of combat contact.

https://rybar.ru/vremevskoe-napravlenie ... rozhajnoe/

Donetsk direction: capture of Netailovo, fighting in Krasnogorovka
May 26, 2024
Rybar

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situation as of 19.00 May 26, 2024

In the Donetsk direction, Russian troops are fighting in Krasnogorovka and have completed the cleansing of Netailovo . The appearance on the Internet of a video with flags in the center and on the western outskirts of Netailovo indicates the completion of the clearing of the previously occupied part of the village development. The first footage of objective control, indicating access to the outskirts of the settlement, appeared on May 15-16 from the enemy.

Now, Russian attack aircraft have apparently managed to clear the buildings on Naberezhnaya and Kolkhoznaya streets , as well as at least part of the forest on the outskirts of the village south of the eastern part of the Karlovskoye Reservoir .

At the same time, there is no information about the capture of oporniks west of the S051801 highway and north of the Vodyannaya River . There may well remain an enemy presence there. South of Netaylovo there is a complex of farms north of the Domakha ravine , where the presence of Ukrainian formations may also remain. In the first third of May, Russian attack aircraft at least tried to advance south, but the result is unknown.

There is no point in assuming that the enemy will roll back. The Ukrainian Armed Forces rely on the Domakha beam in defense of the heights in the Nevelskoye area , where the presence of enemy forces also remains. This site is important for holding Krasnogorovka for as long as possible , since it offers views of the northern outskirts of the city.

Heavy fighting continues in Krasnogorovka itself . According to some reports, the enemy began to withdraw from the Vostochny microdistrict and the neighboring high-rise buildings near school No. 1 , but there is no footage confirming this yet. At the same time, at least part of the development of the microdistrict along Tsentralnaya Street is already under the control of the RF Armed Forces.

In addition, a few days ago the Russian flag was raised in the complex of buildings of secondary school No. 2 , which also indicates the gradual gnawing of enemy defenses in the building area southeast of the Shevchenko central park .

On the northeastern outskirts, advances of Russian attack aircraft have not yet been observed, at least in open sources. After the capture of the fortified area east of the Kaminsky Garden, further advance to the west is fraught with high losses due to enemy control of the heights to the north, and the area west of the Borisovka pond and north of May 1st Street is a difficult to pass lowland.

https://rybar.ru/doneczkoe-napravlenie- ... nogorovke/

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Re: Footnotes from the Ukrainian "Crisis"; New High-Points in Cynicism Part V

Post by blindpig » Tue May 28, 2024 11:59 am

war presidents
POSTED BY @NSANZO ⋅ 05/28/2024

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In a situation much less uncertain than at the time for which the visit was initially planned, Volodymyr Zelensky was able to land yesterday in Madrid to be received with honors by the head of state. The pomposity seemed to surprise the Ukrainian president, who wanted to highlight the importance of the “special honor” of being received when getting off the plane by a king. The high profile that the Ukrainian president has acquired, who in five years has gone from comedy actor to war president to fleeting peace candidate, makes his visits an opportunity to generate favorable headlines for institutions in need of achieving this.

Zelensky's arrival has been delayed for almost two weeks due to the situation in the Kharkiv region, which was serious enough for a few days for Ukraine to cancel its president's international agenda. At that time, the rapid Russian advance on the Kharkiv region, where the first kilometers of open countryside from the border had not been prepared for defense, had made Ukraine doubt its defensive solvency. Prematurely, some doubts also arose as to whether the front was on the verge of collapse. The arrival in urban areas, in which the fight has become entrenched in the same way that has happened on all other fronts, and the sending of reinforcements has almost completely paralyzed the movement of the front, already stagnant in an urban fight and of trenches that does not threaten strategic positions. However, the episode has been useful for the Ukrainian leader in mobilizing support and demanding speed from his partners in sending weapons, ammunition and, above all, Western air defense systems.

“Dear Zelensky,” the President of the Spanish Government wrote on social media, “your visit to Spain allows us to reiterate our firmest commitment to Ukraine in all areas.” “Ukraine can count on Spain in its fight for peace and in the defense of all the values ​​and principles that unite us,” he added after mentioning “defense, security, peace and reconstruction” as the main priorities and “joint efforts.” Despite the words about the moment beyond the war, all the parties involved wanted to take advantage of the occasion to carry out a propaganda exercise in which, with the war as the only theme, the military escort to receive the president dressed in green acquired perfect coherence. Like the rest of the Western countries, Spain has remained firm in the idea of ​​continuing the war until final victory, a success that can only be achieved through military means that rejects, as Volodymyr Zelensky did in the spring of 2022, any negotiated route. The common position is not limited to what happened after February 24, but Spain, like Ukraine, supported the Minsk process only verbally. During those years, the Spanish State rejected more than 80% of asylum requests from the Ukrainian population and Ukraine's aggression against Donbass was never a concern.

“After more than two years, Russian aggression continues, which is why it is more necessary than ever to redouble our support. In this context, Volodymyr, your visit allows us to reiterate the firm commitment in all areas to Ukraine,” Pedro Sánchez stated in his speech. The President of the Government also insisted that Spain will participate in the reconstruction of Ukraine, which will continue to be outlined in a summit to be held in the coming months in Germany and which will be the continuation of the one held in the United Kingdom last year and in which It was clear that the reconstruction process will involve public-private collaboration in which large Western multinationals will be able to benefit from the approach of leaving even the most important aspects of the State in the hands of the market.

With no victory in sight or possibilities for negotiation - which Zelensky prohibited by decree - there is still a long way to go before reconstruction becomes a short-term dream. «Russia will continue to blackmail us because she does not want peace. But after the Peace Summit we will have a document unanimously agreed upon to end the war," insisted the Ukrainian president, much more comfortable with the bellicose discourse that forgets that it was Ukraine that refused to implement the Minsk peace agreements and He broke off the Istanbul negotiations when he believed that continuing the war would bring greater benefits. The commitment to war necessarily implies an increase in destruction and a constant escalation, which in turn becomes an argument to create a discourse that is increasingly distant from reality.

“Today Putin launches more than 3,000 bombs a month aimed at the Ukrainian civilian population,” said Zelensky, twisting the data on the use of weapons in the war to the point of fallacy. Like one of his main advisors, Mijailo Podoliak, the Ukrainian president exploits the idea of ​​constant attacks against the civilian population, something that does not correspond to reality and contrasts with the position that the Ukrainian discourse uses to justify the bombings against villages. border or even the regional capital of Belgorod. “They barely have civilians,” Volodymyr Zelensky recently stated. The population attacked by the cross-border raids of the groups led by Kirilo Budanov's GUR is civilian, and so were the people who were murdered in broad daylight in the center of Belgorod when Ukraine attacked a skating rink with its Czech artillery. In terms of casualties among the civilian population, American journalist Mark Ames recalled that “Israel has killed thirty times more children in Gaza in seven months of war than Russia has killed in two years and three months of war. And the population of Gaza is fifteen times smaller in size than that of Ukraine.” However, the arguments that both Kiev and its allies use to justify the continuation of the war as long as necessary , the legitimate defense and the fight against an occupying power, do not find parallel in the passage of Palestine, where the mass murder - yesterday media covers showed an Israeli bombing that killed dozens of people in an area of ​​tents with a forcibly displaced population - does not provoke demands to send weapons to the resistance that fights against a much superior army that has proposed to control the area by military means. “We are and will be with Ukraine and we consider that Palestine has existed, exists and will exist,” said Pedro Sánchez, president of a country that announced the recognition of the Palestinian State last week and to which Zelensky, leader of a country that does recognize Palestine could only say that it defends “the two-state solution.” The Ukrainian president's comment cannot make us forget that Israel has been, is and will be an example for Ukraine, something that Zelensky shares with his predecessor. “Absolutely liberal, European, it will not be like that,” he has said about the country in the past to explain that the Ukraine of the future “will definitely emerge from the strength of every house, every building, every person.” That force is not just metaphorical. “Zelensky stressed that his vision of the future of Ukraine after the conflict included having armed forces in “all institutions, supermarkets, cinemas, there will be people with weapons,” wrote Al Jazeera in April 2022. The Ukrainian president did not hide what his model and described a country that presented itself as “a great Israel.”

With force as the main argument and war as the raison d'être of the State, the center of each Zelensky international visit is always the military aspect. Yesterday, the Ukrainian president signed a security agreement with Spain that involves a long-term military supply commitment worth 5 billion euros, more than a thousand of which were announced yesterday. 19 Leopard tanks, ammunition and missiles for the Patriot systems make up the bulk of this non-refundable military assistance to which we must also add the training of Ukrainian troops in Spanish territory.

In the middle of the electoral season, the agreement has had some political importance despite the practical unanimity of the parliamentary arch in the defense of Ukraine. Ernest Urtasun, spokesperson for the party led by the vice president of the Government Yolanda Díaz, rejected the “extensions in defense spending outside the budgets” and criticized, in the same way that the right-wing and extreme right-wing parties did, the forms although not the substance of the agreement. Urtasun denounced the lack of transparency and, with great cynicism, stated that "today we have learned that this agreement, which was not known what it was for, is for the shipment of weapons." No aspect of Zelensky's visit or the terms of the agreement can be considered surprising.

The document signed by the two smiling leaders follows in the footsteps of the agreement signed with the United Kingdom, an example followed by Germany, France, Denmark, Canada, Italy, the Netherlands, Finland and Latvia. The fundamental objective of these treaties, which seek to provide security guarantees, but without committing to participate in a war in the event of aggression, is to give the Ukrainian president an argument with which to justify the Western refusal to offer a fast track of accession to the NATO. The agreements do not imply direct participation in a hypothetical external aggression against Ukraine, but are limited to committing long-term military assistance, the main objective of the Ukrainian State in the current phase, in which even among its allies the certainty is growing that the dreamed victory is unviable. Against the possibility of diplomacy, Zelensky needs weapons with which to keep the war in a phase hot enough to remain a priority for his allies. The 5,000 million committed by Spain join the more than 6,000 million promised last week by Sweden, two of the latest announcements of present and future military assistance. Tanks, howitzers, rifles and missiles are the values ​​that currently unite the European continent, focused on a common war whose long-term implications are increasingly uncertain as red lines are crossed and the danger of direct confrontation increases.

https://slavyangrad.es/2024/05/28/presi ... de-guerra/

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From Cassad's Telegram account:

Colonelcassad
Summary of the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation (as of May 27, 2024) The main thing:

Russian air defense shot down 6 Hammer guided bombs, 14 HIMARS and Alder MLRS shells, 44 Ukrainian UAVs in one day;

— Units of the Russian Armed Forces “South” group improved the position along the front line and defeated the manpower and equipment of three enemy brigades;

— The Ukrainian Armed Forces lost up to 460 military personnel in the area of ​​responsibility of the Southern Group of the Russian Armed Forces per day;

— The North group of forces is advancing into the depths of the Ukrainian Armed Forces’ defense, enemy losses per day amounted to 318 military personnel, a tank and two armored vehicles;

— The Ukrainian Armed Forces in the “Center” group zone in the Donetsk People’s Republic lost up to 335 military personnel per day;

— The Dnepr group of troops defeated the Ukrainian Armed Forces near Rabotin and Vesely. The losses of the Ukrainian Armed Forces amounted to up to 40 military personnel.

Operational-tactical aviation, unmanned aerial vehicles, missile forces and artillery of groupings of troops of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation defeated concentrations of enemy manpower and military equipment in 114 regions.

▫️ During the day, air defense systems shot down six Hammer guided bombs made in France, 14 HIMARS missiles made in the USA and Alder, as well as 44 unmanned aerial vehicles,

📊In total, since the beginning of the special military operation, the following have been destroyed: 603 aircraft, 274 helicopters, 24,700 unmanned aerial vehicles, 524 anti-aircraft missile systems, 16,172 tanks and other armored combat vehicles, 1,318 combat vehicles of multiple launch rocket systems, 9,887 field artillery guns and mortars, as well as 22,027 units of special military vehicles.

https://t.me/s/boris_rozhin

Google Translator

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WION, Indian global broadcaster, discusses Putin’s latest proposal for a ceasefire
May 25, 2024

In this morning’s interview on WION, India’s premier English-language global television channel, I was given the opportunity to comment on two of the key issues in yesterday’s international news: the latest statement to the press by Hungarian premier Viktor Orban that Russia has no intention of attacking a NATO country; and President Putin’s offer to conclude a cease-fire and negotiate a settlement with Ukraine based on the present line of contact between the warring parties.

Orban made his remark in the context of his efforts to cool down the hotheads among European Union leaders, such as the premier of Estonia, who want to step up the NATO presence in Ukraine arguing that the Ukraine is just the first country on the Continent that Russia seeks to overrun, that an attack on NATO countries will follow if the Kremlin is not stopped now. It also fits into his assertion a day ago that Hungary is reexamining its NATO obligations and refuses to be drawn into out-of-area fighting such as in Ukraine today.

However, as I note in this interview, Orban’s well-meaning statement about Russian war planning is incorrect. If NATO persists in escalatory behavior and poses an existential threat to Russian security, such as by sending aloft F16s on missions to attack Russian territory, then I believe it is highly likely that Russia will respond with a very serious counter-attack against the country that launched the provocation, whether it is a NATO country or not.

As regards President Putin’s answer to questions from the press yesterday during his visit to Minsk over Russia’s intentions for entering into negotiations with Kiev for an end to hostilities, I believe his proposal to declare a cease-fire based on the present line of contact was made in earnest. The context here was how Russia views the about to be convened ‘peace conference’ in Switzerland to which Russia has not been invited.

Putin’s point was that notwithstanding his dismissal of the Swiss gathering as an empty propaganda exercise on behalf of Ukraine, Russia is ready to enter into real negotiations to end the conflict if such an opportunity presents itself and without preconditions.

Yes, this would mean that Russia abandons the prospect of taking the entirety of the predominantly Russian-speaking Donbas. However, territorial conquest was never the motive driving the Special Military Operation, contrary to all the talk in the West of Mr. Putin’s alleged imperial ambitions. The Russian objectives from the day of its armed incursion in Ukraine in February 2022 were clearly stated: demilitarization and denazification. In effect, given the nature of the ruling clique in Kiev, these demands amount to regime change in Ukraine. And it is precisely regime change today, not territorial aggrandizement that motivates Mr. Putin and his government as they pursue the war.

©Gilbert Doctorow, 2024

https://www.youtube.com/watch?si=QMlkxh ... e=youtu.be

Transcription below by a reader

Eric Njoka, WION: 0:00
Russian President Vladimir Putin is ready to halt the war in Ukraine with a negotiated ceasefire that recognizes the current battlefield lines. This is according to four Russian sources that have added that Putin is prepared to fight on if Kiev and the West do not respond. In response to Putin, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmitro Kuleba said on social media X that the Russian leader was trying to derail a Ukrainian-initiated peace summit in Switzerland next month by using his entourage to send out phony signals about his alleged readiness to halt the war.

Freezing the conflict along current lines would leave Russia in possession of substantial chunks of four Ukrainian regions, but without full control of any of them. Such an agreement would fall short of the goals Moscow set for itself at the time, when it said that four of Ukraine’s regions Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson, According to sources, Putin has clearly indicated to take on NATO and EU if Kiev does not respond to the proposed ceasefire.

1:09
However, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban said fears that Russia would mount an attack on any NATO member are unfounded. Hungary, a member of the European Union and NATO, has been refusing to provide military assistance to Ukraine since Russia’s full-scale invasion in February 2022. Orbán said that his country was looking to redefine its membership in NATO to ensure the country cannot be involved in operations outside of the military alliance’s territory.

The Swiss peace summit in June is aimed at unifying international opinion on how to end the war. The talks were convened at the initiative of Zelensky, who said Putin should not attend. Switzerland has not invited Russia. Moscow has said the talks are not credible without it being there. Ukraine and Switzerland want Russian allies including China to attend the forum. Brazil and China signed a joint statement calling for peace talks in the conflict between Russia and Ukraine with the participation of both countries. The document, signed by Celso Amorim, a special adviser to Brazilian President Lula da Silva; and Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi says that the countries believe negotiation is the only viable solution to the war and the crisis.

2:30
Speaking in China on May 17th, Putin said that Ukraine may use the Swiss talks to get a broader group of countries to back Zelensky’s demand for total Russian withdrawal; but that would be an imposed condition rather than a serious peace negotiation. Both Russia and Ukraine have also said they fear the other side would use any ceasefire to rearm. Meanwhile the US on Friday announced a fresh tranche of 250 million US dollars of military aid for Ukraine, including ammunition, missiles, mines and artillery rounds as Russia presses on with its assault on the Kharkiv region. And the question that arises now is: are NATO and the EU moving closer than ever to conflict with Russia?

3:26
Dr. Gilbert Doctorow is an international affairs analyst, author, and also a historian, is now joining us live from Brussels. Welcome to the show, Doctor. We have seen reports of Hungary seeking to redefine its NATO membership. We have also seen some Baltic states which are NATO members, together with some EU nations marshalling up against Russia. Some critics are speculating a wider conflict or escalation between Russia, NATO, and the EU. How do you see it?

Dr Gilbert Doctorow: 3:56
I think it’s likely that Russia is going to push still harder against the Ukrainian forces in the coming weeks in the hope of forestalling the conflict that you just described. The escalation that is pending will be the introduction of F-16s into Ukraine, which is now talked about for July. And I think that we’re going to see some decisive moves by the Russians to prevent this happening, because it would be precisely a kind of trigger for a serious escalation and the risk of direct conflict with NATO countries.

The remark you made a few minutes ago that Russia could conceivably attack a NATO country, this coming from EU representatives, you have said that that is not in the cards. I don’t agree. It could very easily happen, but only if Russia is provoked in a way that demands a response. If, for example, the F-16s are flying from Moldova, from Romania or from Bulgaria into Ukrainian airspace and are attacking Russian positions, then I think it is entirely thinkable, entirely feasible that Russia would attack a NATO country.

WION: 5:18
Doctor, let’s try and decode this statement by Russian President Vladimir Putin, who says he is ready to halt the war in Ukraine with a negotiated ceasefire that recognizes the current battlefield lines. And if the West doesn’t respond, then he will press on with Kiev. Ukraine has called the statement a bluff and a deterrent. But what does Putin really mean by this statement?

Doctorow:
Well, I think it comes back to what the war is all about. And a couple of minutes ago, you said that such a settlement would fall short of Putin’s objectives from the start of the war. I disagree. Putin’s objectives from the start of the war were not territorial gains for Russia, and that is still the case. So I think his statement, his assertion yesterday– this took place during a press conference at his meetings with Lukashenko in Minsk– he answered a question of a journalist in the way that you described, that he would accept a settlement at the present line of conflict, that yes, indeed, that would mean that Russia accepts a solution that falls short of retaking or taking the entire Donbass.

6:31
However, territorial ambitions were never part of the Russian game plan. They had two objectives, and they are still underway. And that is denazification and demilitarization; to put it in other words, regime change in Ukraine. That remains the primary Russian objective. And if that means that they stop their offensive and freeze the conflict at the present territorial situation, that will be perfectly acceptable to Moscow.

WION: 7:00
All right, I’ve been talking to Dr. Gilbert Doctorow, who’s an international affairs analyst. He’s also an author and a historian. Doctor, thank you very much for talking to us today.

https://gilbertdoctorow.com/2024/05/25/ ... ceasefire/

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AS UKRAINIAN WAR IS LOST, CANADIAN GOVERNMENT IS AFRAID TO PROSECUTE COLONEL ROBERT KEARNEY FOR SAYING SO

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by John Helmer, Moscow @bears_with

A new press release in Ottawa reports that the court martial announced for Canadian Armed Forces (CAF) Colonel Robert Kearney for his disagreement with Canadian, American, and British military planners of Ukrainian battlefield operations against Russia may not proceed.

The Canadian government news slip reveals the allegations of disloyalty against Kearney announced publicly last month are now likely to be abandoned.

On April 29 a CAF press release was issued in Ottawa claiming that as a senior planning officer based in the UK and in Romania for Ukraine war operations, Kearney had made “derogatory and disloyal comments about Senior CAF [Canadian] and NATO [US, UK] members. The first offence allegedly occurred in December of 2021 and four subsequent offences ranged from January 2023 to November 2023. The offences are alleged to have taken place in the United Kingdom and in Romania.”

Kearney was at the time of his “disloyal comments” the assistant chief of staff at the Allied Rapid Reaction Corps (ARRC) in Innsworth, United Kingdom. In this role, Kearney supervised more than 400 staff officers from the armies of the UK, US, Canada, Italy, Denmark, and other NATO states.

ARRC and NATO press releases claim Kearney’s unit has been operating against Russia in Estonia and in Romania “in its primary role as a war fighting Corps Headquarters.”

Under Section 129 of Canada’s Defence Act – the provision of military law reportedly being applied against Kearney — prosecution of soldiers is allowed for an undefined “act, conduct, disorder, or neglect to the prejudice of discipline”. The penalty for conviction is “dismissal with disgrace”, which includes loss of pension. This law has not been tested — no officer of Kearney’s rank has been charged and prosecuted for a Section 129 offence in a court martial before.

Canadian military sources believe Kearney is being threatened with court martial now because the Canadian government’s policy to finance, arm, train, plan, and direct Ukrainian operations against Russia is being defeated; and that the military collapse east of Kiev now risks loss of more territory and the lives of Canadians currently working in the Ukraine and at cross-border bases in Poland and Romania.

At least one thousand Canadians have been counted by the Russian Defense Ministry on the battlefield since the start of the Special Military Operation; by March of this year, 422 had been confirmed killed in action.

Loss of confidence in the Ukraine war has become increasingly public in the military staffs of the US, France and Germany, but this is being kept secret in the UK and Canada.

On May 15, a new Canadian government press release was issued acknowledging that, in fact, no charges have been filed against Kearney, and that the “military [have] yet to decide on court martial for the colonel accused of making derogatory comments about Canadian Forces leaders”.

The new press release, issued ten days ago in an email to an Ottawa journalist, reversed the meaning of the earlier government announcement. The new message divulges that Kearney has been accused by officers he had criticized for their professional incompetence, but he has not been charged with a military offence. “National Defence spokeswoman Andrée-Anne Poulin noted the charges against Kearney have now been referred to the Director of Military Prosecutions. ‘The prosecutor assigned to review the case will first complete the post-charge analysis,’ she explained in an email. If the prosecutor prefers charges, and once the counsel for the accused indicates they are ready to proceed, the case will be brought before the Chief Military Judge, at a scheduling conference.’ Once the dates for the trial have been identified, the court martial administrator will issue a convening order, and a summons to the accused, which will specify the date for the court martial, Poulin added.”

Canadian lawyers point out that the conditional “if” and “once” in this defence ministry statement are a new sign that the political costs of prosecuting Kearney have become too high to proceed against him.

A reporter named David Pugliese, who works for the Ottawa Citizen, has been the single source of the publicity against Kearney. According to his newspaper, Pugliese is “an award-winning journalist covering Canadian Forces and military issues in Canada.”

A veteran with service in Afghanistan believes there has been an official cover-up of what Kearney has told his superiors during the Ukraine operations planning process, including warnings from Kearney of the future risk of Canadian casualties and military equipment losses. The source notes that no Canadian reporter has followed up on Pugliese’s publications. “I’ve seen nothing [else] on the Kearney case. Pugliese has allowed himself to be used as a tool, not only against Kearney, but against anyone else in the CAF considering speaking out against stupid and dangerous war plans and operations.”

Another Canadian military source says the Kearney case shows how weak Canadian generals and politicians have become now, compared to their counterparts during World War II when Canadian General Harry Crerar successfully opposed British General Bernard Montgomery to claim Canadian control over Canadian military forces and resist sacrificing Canadian troops in operations Montgomery was planning against the Germans in 1944 which Crerar told Montgomery were foolhardy.*

Kearney’s supporters in the Canadian military are hoping that if the case against him collapses, he will sue Pugliese and the Ottawa Citizen for collaboration in defaming Kearney.

Since the Kearney case first surfaced publicly in April, read the full report here:

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Source: https://www.canada.ca/

Esprit de Corps, a widely read internet magazine on Canadian military affairs, has reported in detail on military police and prosecutor investigations of sexual misconduct by senior CAF officers. The magazine, edited by former CAF infantryman Scott Taylor, has ignored the Kearney case. Comments a Canadian veteran, “Taylor is afraid of [Deputy Prime Minister Chrystia] Freeland and the pro-Ukraine politicians, as well as of alienating the CAF command if he delves too deeply.” Taylor and Pugliese are friends. The risks in their coverage of the Kearney case have been explained to them, the source adds. “They are scared.”

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Left: Colonel Robert Kearney from a social media posting; right, Kearney’s Meritorious Service Medal citation of May 2012. An earlier MSM was awarded to Kearney in October 2008. This medal is a US military award to foreign, allied soldiers. Following his first medal citation Kearney was promoted from command of a CAF training base for snipers, tankers, and artillerymen to a divisional headquarters in Toronto.

In fact and in legal procedure, Kearney has not been formally charged at all. Instead, at the direction of British, US, and other NATO generals, the Canadians were pressured to publish accusations against Kearney without revealing what he had said or done; and the Canadian media persuaded to publicize the allegations in an attempt to deter other Canadian officers from airing their dissenting views inside the military planning process.

The original press release claims: “Col Kearney faces the following charges: Five (5) x counts of Conduct Prejudice to the Good Order and Discipline pursuant to section 129 of the National Defence Act. On November 29th, 2023, Military Police, Detachment Geilenkirchen received a complaint of a senior CAF officer allegedly making derogatory and disloyal comments about Senior CAF and NATO members. The first offence allegedly occurred in December of 2021 and four subsequent offences ranged from January 2023 to November 2023. The offences are alleged to have taken place in the United Kingdom and in Romania. This case will now proceed through the Military Justice System and no further information can be released at this time.”

In fact, Kearney was facing publicity of alleged disloyalty; he was not facing Section 129 charges.

No clarification or comment has been given to the press on the Kearney case by government officials, led by Deputy Prime Minister Chrystia Freeland who is an ethnic Ukrainian promoter of war against Russia. Pugliese refuses to answer questions about his own involvement in the case.

Kearney and his lawyers are saying nothing to the press. Behind the scenes, Canadian legal sources believe Kearney’s attorneys are making it clear to the Department of National Defence (DND) and to the CAF Defence Staff that unless the accusations against Kearney are withdrawn, they will require disclosure in public of the details of Kearney’s operational work on the Ukraine war; the names and nationalities of his accusers; and the operational issues involved in Kearney’s conflict with the other officers.

This is a powerful threat to expose the widening gap between Canadian field officers risking their lives in the Ukraine and the Freeland group in Ottawa who are profiteering from the war against Russia.

In his May 15 newspaper report, Pugliese claims to have found support for Kearney from retired CAF Colonel Brett Boudreau in a tweet. Boudreau was reported as having “pointed out that Chief of the Defence Staff Gen. Wayne Eyre, as well as Defence Minister Bill Blair, have spoken publicly about the failures of military leaders. ‘It will be interesting to see CAF trying to prove how this officer’s (Kearney’s) remarks are chargeable, while those by a succession of MNDs [Ministers of National Defence] (Sajjan, Anand, Blair) and CDS [Chief of the Defence Staff] Eyre are just fine,’ Boudreau wrote.”

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Source: https://x.com/WHMTE

No trace of this tweet by Boudreau can be found currently. Instead, on May 4 Boudreau attacked the CAF military police for their violations of Canadian law and their lack of public accountability. “[There is] an egregious lack of oversight and accountability by DND [Department of National Defence]/senior CAF leaders of the military police function. After years of providing disclosure to the MPCC [Military Police Complaints Commission] in public interest investigations, the CFPM [Canadian Forces Provost Marshal] now considers that he has no legal duty to disclose relevant information to the MPCC in such cases, citing that the National Defence Act contains no express provision requiring him to do so.”

Read more on the breakdown of civilian and legal control of the military police in this report of March 26, 2024, by the Military Police Complaints Commission to the Canadian Defence Minister Bill Blair.

“Our most significant challenge this year was the erosion of the MPCC’s ability to exercise civilian oversight of the military police. The MPCC used a great deal of resources and effort to obtain relevant documents from the CFPM to enable it to conduct fair and fulsome investigations. In too many instances, we have seen resistance or refusal to disclose information the MPCC needs to investigate complaints”, reported the MPCC chairman Tammy Tremblay, a civilian lawyer.

Canadian military sources believe the Ottawa Citizen and Pugliese had the duty to check the military police allegations against Kearney before they damaged him by misreporting what was going on. “Since the Army and Provost Marshal aren’t exactly stupid, they knew all this in advance. So, to deter colonel and general staff-level officers from doing what Kearney said, they used bastards like Pugliese to publish the story of the prosecution that won’t go anywhere. In doing so, they denied a senior CAF officer his constitutional and legal right to the presumption of innocence. It’s a very dirty game.”


[*] Crerar fought to preserve the independence of Canadian military command against Montgomery (left), triggering the latter’s effort to get Crerar dismissed, and later to denigrate him in his war memoirs. Read the report here. The efforts of nationalist Canadian officers like Crerar and Andrew McNaughton pale by comparison with Canadian generals today, comments a military source. “If Crerar and McNaughton were in command today, they would have just as little use for US control as they had for the British. They would see Ukrainian command of the CAF and the likes of Freeland as an abomination.”

https://johnhelmer.net/as-ukrainian-war ... more-89882

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Ukraine Can Attack Russia With Allied Weapons: NATO Assembly

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Ukrainian soldiers. | Photo: X/ @waltavs

Published 27 May 2024

Stoltenberg asserted that attacking military targets on Russian soil is a form of self-defense.


On Monday, the Parliamentary Assembly of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) approved a declaration stating that Ukraine can attack military targets in Russia using the weaponry provided by supporting countries.

The text received the backing of 47 out of 56 countries or institutions that are part of the assembly, which serves as a link between NATO and the parliaments of member countries, according to Bulgarian public radio from Sofia, where the Assembly concludes today.

The Assembly also includes delegates from associated parliaments or observers from other nations or institutions such as the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe or the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE).

Several NATO countries that have sent weaponry to Ukraine have stipulated that this material not be used to attack military positions on Russian soil.


On Monday, however, NATO Secretary Jens Stoltenberg asserted that it is time to lift this restriction and argued that attacking military targets on Russian soil is a form of legitimate self-defense. Otherwise, he argued, Ukraine has its "hands tied."

"Allies must decide on the restrictions on the use of weapons against legitimate military targets across the border, this is not a matter for NATO. Even now, some members have restrictions and others do not," Stoltenberg emphasized during a press conference with Bulgarian Prime Minister Dimitar Glavchev.

"Ukraine has the right to defend itself. We, as allies, have the right to help Ukraine do so. However, this does not mean that NATO is part of the conflict," said Stoltenberg, insisting that the Alliance has no plans to send troops to Ukraine, deploy capabilities in Ukrainian airspace, or train troops on Ukrainian soil.

Additionally, he stated, NATO's main goal is to ensure that the conflict does not extend beyond Ukraine or turn into a confrontation between NATO and Russia.

https://www.telesurenglish.net/news/Ukr ... -0003.html

******

RUSSIAN ADVANCE ON KHARKIV COULD DEFINE THE COURSE OF THE WAR
May 27, 2024 , 7:00 am .

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Russian troops on the war front (Photo: Sputnik)

The Russian Defense Ministry offered details of how its troops have advanced in the Ukrainian province of Kharkiv. According to reports from that ministry, the Sever (North) troops entered the area and defeated the Kiev forces in the towns of Konstantinovka, Okhrimovka and Granov, operations that could define the course of the war, as well as a prelude to their summer offensive.

According to RT , as a result, at least 245 Ukrainian soldiers, two tanks, two armored vehicles, three Akatsiya self-propelled artillery systems, as well as a D-20 howitzer and an AN/TPQ-50 counterbattery radar station, manufactured US.

The latest advances by the Russian army have been rapid. In the last week alone it captured some 274 km² of territory in this region, as much as in the previous three months. The 28 attacks with high-precision weapons destroyed command posts, airfields, armories, fuel bases of the Ukrainian forces and production workshops and warehouses for unmanned ships and attack drones.

The defeat of the Ukrainian army in Kharkiv is decisive for the course of the conflict because it is the second largest city in Ukraine which, with a population of about a million and a half inhabitants and approximately two million in its metropolitan area, is one of the main centers industrial, cultural and educational of the country. Between 1923 and 1934 this city was the capital of the Ukrainian Soviet Socialist Republic.

That province stands out for its industry specialized in the production of weapons and machinery, as well as the production of tanks and turbines for nuclear power plants. It is also known for its numerous train lines with connections to other regions.

While Russia is capturing towns in Kharkov, it has also been defeating the Ukrainian army on other fronts. Recently the Ministry of Defense reported that it had completely liberated the town of Klescheyevka, in the Donetsk People's Republic, from Ukrainian troops.

For its part, the situation on the Ukrainian side is serious. Institutionally there is a gap because President Vladimir Zelensky's mandate expired on May 20 and he suspended all elections, considering that "now is not the time." However, the United States and European countries, which proclaim the values ​​of democracy as a banner, will not say that it is exercising a dictatorship.

kyiv's legitimacy remains in doubt if an agreement is signed. "We must be completely sure that we are dealing with legitimate authorities," the Russian president said , referring to the fact that Zelensky's term ended in May.

The surrender of some troops to escape death, the forced recruitment that has prompted the escape of many men from the country and the constant advances of Russian troops make the outlook for the Kiev regime complex. In recent appearances, Zelensky seems out of touch and with a speech that borders on hysteria.

A Ukrainian soldier captured in a border area of ​​​​Kharkov confessed that the system of defense lines was inadequate to repel an offensive. "Defense is zero in the Kharkiv region, it simply does not exist, the conditions are bad, there were no firing points at all, there were no trenches, in short, there is simply nothing. We are, generally speaking, within reach [ of the Russian Armed Forces]," Andrei Sholan told Sputnik .

The situation is completely unfavorable and the Ukrainian president is only subject to the hope that military aid will arrive from the United States, which was approved but it is not known if it will be enough to change the course of the war in his favor. lack of personnel and because Russia is superior in that sense.

That is why he recently ended up blaming the world if troops finally occupied Kharkov. The frustration was evident, according to someone who interviewed him for ABC . "All we need are two Patriot systems," he said, adding that "Russia will not be able to occupy Kharkov if we have them."

https://misionverdad.com/globalistan/av ... -la-guerra

Google Translator

*****

RON PAUL: THE VIETNAMIZATION OF UKRAINE
MAY 26, 2024 NATYLIESB
By Ron Paul, Antiwar.com, 5/21/24

As Ukraine’s defeat in the war moves closer, the neocons are desperate to draw the US further into the fight. Over the weekend, former US State Department official Victoria Nuland told ABC News that the US must help facilitate Ukrainian missile attacks deep inside Russian territory. The Biden Administration has to this point avoided involvement in such attacks, likely because Russian president Vladimir Putin has warned that Russia will strike any facility that supplies or facilitates strikes inside of Russia, wherever they may be.

It’s a clear warning from a nuclear power, but as Nuland and her fellow neocons see their Ukraine project failing, they demand escalation. This is just what they did in their previous disastrous projects like the Iraq War, the attacks on Syria and Libya, and the 20-year occupation of Afghanistan. For them the failure is never because it was a bad idea in the first place, but that not enough lives and resources were poured into that bad idea to create a good outcome.

But Russia is no Iraq nor is it Libya. This time they are playing with World War III and nuclear destruction and no one in DC seems concerned.

Last Thursday the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Charles Q. Brown, said that NATO trainers deployed within Ukraine was inevitable. “We’ll get there eventually, over time,” he said. This, of course, is exactly how we got the Vietnam War, but Russia in 2024 is hardly late -1950s Vietnam. Russia of today is a country that can fight back and can project military power all the way to the source, which means the United States.

Is Nuland’s Ukraine project worth dying in a nuclear war over?

The whole US involvement in this proxy war has been based on lie after lie. They said we had to help Ukraine defeat Russia because democracy itself was at stake. Then Ukrainian president Zelensky cancelled elections, so they told us we have to help Ukraine defeat Russia because Putin won’t stop there – he’ll soon be marching through Berlin, London, and maybe even New York!

Doesn’t it remind you of how the neocons were warning us that Saddam was going to attack the US mainland with drones and that he was operating mobile weapons labs? Anything to get the public on board for their war.

The fact is the neocons and warmongers lie constantly. They will do whatever it takes to get their wars and sadly we do not have an independent media in the US to challenge them on their lies. Our media is so closely tied to the military-industrial complex that it is also a stakeholder in war profits, so they aren’t about to rock the boat.

Anyone who thinks we cannot get sucked into another war like we were with George W. Bush’s lie that Saddam Hussein had weapons of mass destruction is not paying attention. It is happening again, in real time.

The fact is we live in a deeply corrupt society dominated by individuals who do not believe in truth. When you don’t believe in truth you will have no qualms about manipulating others to do your will. So unless they are stopped, neocons like Nuland will demand more attacks on Russia, more US troops in Ukraine, more escalation. Until Russia fights back. Then it will all be over. Is this what we want?

https://natyliesbaldwin.com/2024/05/ron ... f-ukraine/

(Yep, that's right Ron. Now tell me that capitalism's got nothing to do with it....)

******

Call sign "Vanka"
May 28, 11:15

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Call sign "Vanka".
Volunteer from Nigeria Adam Mohammad Bakur Mohammad Ibrahim. Worked in the Northern Military District in the infantry and as a UAV operator. Personally captured a Ukrainian Armed Forces soldier.

Now he is waiting to receive a Russian passport, with which certain difficulties have arisen ( https://russian.rt.com/russia/article/1 ... zhdanstvom )
I believe, having fought at the front against the Nazis" Vanka" fully deserved a Russian passport.

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/9172711.html

Google Translator

The captured Uke if a Nazi would be icing on the cake.
"There is great chaos under heaven; the situation is excellent."

User avatar
blindpig
Posts: 14420
Joined: Fri Jul 14, 2017 5:44 pm
Location: Turtle Island
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Re: Footnotes from the Ukrainian "Crisis"; New High-Points in Cynicism Part V

Post by blindpig » Wed May 29, 2024 11:48 am

An alternative to endless climbing
POSTED BY @NSANZO ⋅ 05/29/2024

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Two weeks before the summit in which President Zelensky wanted to consolidate his peace plan as the only possible way to resolve the conflict, the doubts seem not to be limited to Ukraine's opponents. The notable reduction in the ambition of the summit shows the limited viability of the formula that Ukrainian diplomacy has been trying to promote for a year. Added to the reluctance that exists even on the American side, there have been announcements of important absences. Ukraine wants the summit to become the basis for hypothetical future negotiations with Russia in which it is the only actor with the capacity to impose its conditions. To do this, kyiv needs to show strength on the front and complete superiority on the diplomatic side. Hence the disappointment at the news that Joe Biden will not attend the meeting in favor of an electoral event and the attempt these days to convince the American leader, as well as the Chinese president, to participate in a summit that cannot resolve the conflict, but which is essential for Zelensky, who needs to consolidate the current status quo in which the only existing red line is diplomacy. “I think that the Peace Summit and the other leaders, who are awaiting the reaction of the United States of America, need President Biden. His absence would be applauded by Putin, applauded personally by Putin, and it would be a standing ovation,” the Ukrainian president declared.

The proximity of the summit and the feeling that Zelensky's plan has lost any strength it had in its beginnings, when the European Union or the United States insisted on presenting it as a responsible plan for just peace, has led to the reemergence of other proposals that had been left behind. overshadowed by the warmongering fervor that has swept through Western countries since the breakdown of the Istanbul negotiations. This is the case of Brazil and China, two of the countries that have aspired to mediate between Russia and Ukraine and that have presented their own proposals in the past. Both, like any proposal that has not been completely to kyiv's liking, were rejected by the West, accusing them of being favorable to Moscow.

Ukraine's refusal to engage in any dialogue that could imply concessions and Zelensky's rudeness to Lula da Silva during the G7 summit made Brazil give up its mediation attempt. China, for its part, made several visits to test the waters, although it also made no progress. The country's importance as the second largest economy in the world and Ukraine's first trading partner forced kyiv to treat the Chinese envoy with a politeness that was not the case with Brazil, although the refusal to listen to Beijing's plan is evident in the complete absence of further negotiations beyond the initial contact.

In a joint statement, Brazil and China presented last Friday a six-point plan to move towards peace, a roadmap that has gone relatively unnoticed as it did not have the explicit approval of the Ukrainian leader. In a context of war and apparently decided that the conflict must have a military and not a diplomatic resolution, any proposal that does not comply with the conditions of the Ukrainian president is vilified or, in this case, being a country as important as China, ignored. .

Brazil and China resume the efforts of the first months of Lula da Silva's presidency in search of the beginning of a diplomatic process that could lead to peace. Hence, the first point focuses on achieving military de-escalation, a prerequisite for transferring the conflict from the war level to the diplomatic level. “The two countries call on all relevant parties to observe three principles to de-escalate the situation, namely that there be no expansion on the battlefield, escalation of fighting or provocation by any party.” Evidently, this point aims to freeze the front in search of a ceasefire that gives room for a possible negotiation, point two of the statement from the Minister of Foreign Affairs of China, Wang Yi, and Celso Amorim, advisor to President Lula da Silva. With dialogue and negotiation as the only paths to a ceasefire and diplomatic resolution, the two countries call for creating the conditions for the celebration of a summit recognized by the two countries in conflict and in which both can participate equally. The contrast with the summit that Zelensky is preparing for June is evident and, from there, the Chinese-Brazilian plan clearly marks the distance with the formula of demanding unilateral surrender of the Ukrainian president, in reality a recipe to prolong the conflict instead. to solve it.

The proposal is based on the same bases as other roadmaps for peace, including Zelensky's, and takes into account humanitarian aspects, the security of the civilian population and the nuclear issue, although it does not do so from the point of view of part, but subtly mentioning aspects that worry Russia. In this way, at the point where the need to protect the civilian population is mentioned, the safety of prisoners of war is also referred to, perhaps a reference to Ukraine's actions with the downing of a Russian cargo plane transporting to prisoners who were going to be exchanged. Much clearer is the point related to nuclear security, one of the topics that will be discussed at the Swiss summit. In addition to condemning any possible use of nuclear weapons, a demand from Ukraine, the Chinese-Brazilian statement also mentions the need to guarantee the safety of nuclear power plants. This is a clear allusion to the only nuclear power plant that is being the target of attacks whose author is impossible for the Western press to determine, that of Energodar, under Russian control and periodically attacked by drones and artillery from Ukraine, which subsequently tends to accuse Moscow of bombing its own positions.

The last point sees the war in Ukraine in the global context and notes that “the division of the world into isolated political or economic groups must be rejected.” Although with enormous differences with respect to the Cold War, in which there was a clear ideological component now absent, the war in Ukraine has been a boost to a certain reconfiguration of blocs that is detrimental to countries that, like China, aspire to make trade global. your source of progress. “The two countries call for efforts to increase cooperation in energy, foreign exchange, finance, trade, food security and infrastructure, including oil and gas pipelines, submarine optical cables, electricity and energy infrastructure and fiber optic networks, as well as protect global industrial stability and supply chains.” In this defense of a world open to trade and cooperation without political or military obstacles, the mention of oil and gas pipelines draws attention, especially taking into account that Ukraine remains the only one suspected of having exploded the Nord Stream pipelines, owned by both from Russia and Germany.

The Chinese-Brazilian communiqué is not revolutionary nor does it present the demands of one party blaming the other for having started the war, but rather it seeks a certain equanimity to achieve a global solution to a war in which countries participate, directly or indirectly. of great importance at an international level. The mention of trade and relations beyond isolated blocs shows that the war in Ukraine is part of a cluster of political conflicts between blocs that does not benefit the majority and that especially harms China, interested in maintaining its current relationship with Russia. from which it obtains benefits in the form of raw materials and cheap energy, but not at the cost of losing access to other markets.

Regarding the military and political situation between Russia and Ukraine, Brazil and China do not propose a concrete solution, although there are signs of one. The freezing of the front in search of a ceasefire and subsequent negotiation is an indicator that there is no demand in the proposal for the return of territories as Ukraine demands. Cooling the front in its current composition is also the starting point of the information provided last week by Reuters, which states that Vladimir Putin would be willing to negotiate the end of the war on the basis of current borders. The negotiation proposed by China and Brazil could modify these borders, even significantly, although not to the extent of complete withdrawal demanded by Ukraine, a clearly unviable proposal.

The ceasefire and negotiation are the alternative to the current military reality, in which a military solution through the complete victory of one of the two sides is not visible today. The balance of forces would have to vary completely so that there could be a victory for Ukraine by raising its flag in Donetsk, Lugansk or Sevastopol or a Russian one in Odessa, Kharkiv or kyiv. The Western counterproposal to plans that, like the one presented by Brazil and China last week, seek de-escalation, negotiation and global economic integration is to maintain the status quo . “The world should not get tired of Ukraine,” Volodymyr Zelensky said yesterday in reference to the need to continue assisting kyiv. This necessarily implies a growing supply of weapons with greater destructive capacity, expansion of the war into Russian territory, a general escalation with devastating consequences for the civilian population in the form of destruction and the risk of loss of control blurring and crossing red lines that makes two years seemed clear.

https://slavyangrad.es/2024/05/29/29847/

Google Translator

Let Zelensky keep up his suicidal foolishness and Novorussia will be.

******

From Cassad's Telegram account:

Colonelcassad
Summary of the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation on the progress of the special military operation (as of May 28, 2024) | The main thing:

— The losses of the Ukrainian Armed Forces per day in the zone of the “Center” group of forces amounted to up to 405 military personnel, 2 infantry fighting vehicles, including the American Bradley;

— Russian air defense shot down a MiG-29 aircraft of the Ukrainian Air Force and 39 Ukrainian drones in one day;

— The “West” group occupied more advantageous positions and repelled 3 counterattacks of the Ukrainian Armed Forces;

— The Ukrainian Armed Forces lost more than 700 servicemen in one day in the area of ​​responsibility of the Southern Group of the Russian Armed Forces;

— Units of the Southern Group of the Russian Armed Forces improved the situation along the front line, defeated the manpower and equipment of two Ukrainian brigades;

— The “North” group repelled 5 counterattacks during the day, defeated 4 enemy brigades, and the losses of the Ukrainian Armed Forces amounted to 285 military personnel.

Units of the Vostok group of troops occupied more advantageous positions, and also defeated the manpower and equipment of the 58th motorized infantry brigade of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, the 128th terrestrial defense brigade in the areas of the settlements of Urozhainoye and Makarovka of the Donetsk People's Republic.

The Ukrainian Armed Forces lost up to 165 military personnel, four vehicles, two 155-mm M777 howitzers made in the USA, two 155-mm Krab self-propelled artillery mounts made in Poland, as well as a 155-mm towed howitzer FH-70 made in the UK.

▫️Units of the Dnepr group of troops defeated the personnel and equipment of the 35th Marine Brigade in the area of ​​​​the village of Tyaginka, Kherson region.

The Ukrainian Armed Forces' losses amounted to up to 45 military personnel, four vehicles, and a 122-mm D-30 howitzer.

▫️ Operational-tactical aviation, unmanned aerial vehicles, missile forces and artillery from groupings of troops of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation defeated concentrations of enemy manpower and military equipment in 118 regions.

▫️Air defense systems shot down a MiG-29 aircraft of the Ukrainian Air Force, and also destroyed: 39 unmanned aerial vehicles, an ATACMS operational-tactical missile made in the USA, seven Hammer guided bombs made in France and a HIMARS missile made in the USA.

▫️In total, since the beginning of the special military operation, the following have been destroyed : 604 aircraft, 274 helicopters, 24,739 unmanned aerial vehicles, 524 anti-aircraft missile systems, 16,182 tanks and other armored combat vehicles, 1,322 combat vehicles of multiple launch rocket systems, 9,914 field artillery guns and mortars, as well as 22,060 units of special military vehicles.

https://t.me/s/boris_rozhin

Google Translator

******

SITREP 5/26/24: NATO's Yipping Chihuahuas Strain Their Leash as Russia Gears Up for Next Wave

SIMPLICIUS
MAY 27, 2024
We start today with a new Hollywood production that must be seen to be believed for its crass dramatization and phony caricaturization of the war by the actor Zelensky:



He’s trying to galvanize European support on the eve of the Swiss “Peace Conference” coming up in the middle of June, where he hopes to make some grand gesture toward solidarity against Russia.

In the above performance, by the way, he cites Russia’s destruction of Ukrainian books as some sort of tragedy, even crudely invoking Fahrenheit 451 for some emotive effect; how convenient, then, that he leaves out his own Guy Montag moment:

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Funny how some books are more valuable than others.

But getting back:

The ongoing effort being coordinated from the highest offices of the shadow deepstate of the Atlanticist West sees a major campaign of European/NATO pressure against Russia with threats of boots on the ground. This has picked up pace, with Lithuanian foreign minister Landsbergis attempting to take the lead in sending troops for the putative purpose of ‘training’ on Ukraine’s territory: (Video at link.)

Meanwhile, Der Spiegel writes that the Baltics and Poland “will not wait” for Russian troops to be “deployed on their border” and would send troops to Ukraine if Russian forces achieve a major breakthrough:

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I suppose the Baltics aren’t great with geography, given that they already share a border with Russia.

But beyond that, they continue to seed the ground with potential falseflag justifications for some type of war against Russia. This week, the new claim of ‘threat’ is Russia allegedly seeking to capture Finland’s Aland Island:

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https://www.newsweek.com/nato-dilemma-b ... nd-1904436

This is lurid absurdity and tragicomedy in one. How abjectly brainwashed and brainless does one’s populace have to be to truly believe Russia seeks to invade those worthless islands belonging to two insignificant countries? From the Newsweek article above:

Sweden's NATO accession has made the Gotland issue even more pointed. "I'm sure that Putin even has both eyes on Gotland," Micael Bydén—the supreme commander of Sweden's armed forces—told the German editorial network RND this week. "Putin's goal is to gain control of the Baltic Sea."

"If Russia takes control and seals off the Baltic Sea, it would have an enormous impact on our lives—in Sweden and all other countries bordering the Baltic Sea. We can't allow that," Bydén added.


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This is of course all part and parcel to the longstanding 3SI or Three Seas Initiative, the cabal’s plan to extend the Empire’s hegemony over all the Baltic, Adriatic, and Black Sea.

<snip>

On the heels of all the hysteria amid Ukraine’s ongoing collapse, we have the latest establishment publication from another neocon writing for the CFR’s ‘Foreign Affairs’:

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https://www.foreignaffairs.com/ukraine/ ... ry-ukraine

If you want a laugh, by the way, check ‘Eliot Cohen’s’ reputation:

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In short, another racist warmongering Zionist neocon responsible for millions of deaths in the Middle East.

His latest masterpiece attempts to belly our sails with the laughable “theory” that Ukraine can still win the war. In the farcical piece the scheming little vermin openly salivates over doing grave damage to Russian ‘society’:

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Unfortunately most of his laughable analysis is premised on total narcissistic hubris:

[Russia’s] artillery systems are based on old models and lack precision and long-range capabilities, and its multiple-launch rocket systems, tanks, and aviation equipment are no match for Western models. If Ukraine can increase precision strikes by long-range artillery, it can turn the war’s arithmetic against Russia and impose an unacceptable rate of attrition on Moscow.

He goes on to cite ISIS’s “shocking success” in striking Moscow as clear evidence of the vulnerability of Putin’s putative regime. Need one say more about such analysis? And this is the Empire’s best on offer.

<snip>

On the topic of Ukraine’s mobilization bad news continues to pile up.

Firstly, as we know Ukraine began pulling mass amounts of men from brigades on other active fronts to staunch the territorial losses in the north Kharkov breakthrough. This has already had a deleterious effect, causing multiple losses of territory on other fronts as they have become majorly undermanned.

One of these is Khrynki, wherein immediately after UA’s 36th Marines were pulled from there to help reinforce Kharkov it was announced that Khrynki was finally folding for good and that AFU were abandoning it for other more defensible islands nearby, though it hasn’t been fully confirmed on the ground yet.

Elsewhere Russian forces have continued plowing along to the AFU’s cries:

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This has resulted in rumors that Syrsky would be scapegoated by Zelensky:

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As well as the reported announcement that the Ukrainian general staff would be ‘scaled down’ by 60%, with many sent to the front:

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If there’s even a hint of truth to the above, I’d far likelier wager the real reason being Zelensky’s need to crop the command a tad in order to rein in growing prospects of military coup.

Now, rumor has it that after a small hiatus of regrouping, Russian forces are poised to make another large-scale broad-fronted attack across the entire front:

In the coming Days/Weeks the entire Front will be activated from our side. In the coming hours the Regrouping and Rotation along the front will be completed. As already happened this morning in the Avdeevka area. And then our Troops began Offensive Operations again. This will happen in a timely manner from Zaporozhye to Kharkov. Now the enemy is exhausted and forced to jump from A to B. The Meat Grinder will start up at full speed shortly.

This was followed by reports from the Ukrainian side that the Sumy border is getting hotter and hotter:

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In light of this, large new echelons of equipment were spotted in Vologda, Russia headed to the northern front, sporting the new tactical markings:
(Video at link.)

The T-80BVM Obr. 2022 have the code 133 painted on their mudguards, which means they likely belong to Russia's 4th Guards Tank Division, 1st Guards Tank Army, Moscow (Western) Military District. 26 May 2024 Vologda, Vologda Oblast

<snip>

A smattering of new headlines as a quick temp gauge:

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The above CNN piece about the draft in particular segues into this video where a Ukrainian official declares that all “women and children” must be driven into Ukraine’s enterprises (read: factories) to save the country: (Video at link.)

(Much more at link.)

https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/sit ... chihuahuas
(I am unable to copy video from this site but this one wasn't hard to track down.)

******

On the tactics of using enemy naval drones
May 27, 19:18

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Interesting information about the enemy's tactics of using naval drones.

Good people" helped me dispel the myth about the "armored" BECs of the Navy and told me about the tactics of their use.

So.
There is an opinion that the Navy armors its BECs and calibers 5.45 and 7.62 are very weak against them.
This is partly true.
Yes They use armored BEC, but not to destroy the target, but to divert fire.
That is, the “flock” of BEC has two types of boats. The lead one is an armored BEC, without a warhead. Its task is to concentrate the fire of all small arms. which is used on it. It is guaranteed that it can be destroyed with a 12.7 mm machine gun (DSHK, UTES, KORD) will cope with it, but not immediately

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while the main group of shooters is distracted by BEC No. 1, a flock of light ones. The BEC occupies the most advantageous position for an attack. Their task is to deprive the naval target of maneuver. Their attack should arrive in the area of ​​the stern compartment.
After this, they can strike at the sides of the ship.

The photo shows a light BEC with a warhead.
Armored BECs can be done. will immediately complicate their production and increase their size, and hence their secrecy.
And don’t forget that 12.7 mm penetrates lightly armored vehicles, so the transition to full BEC armor is unlikely.


(c) Evil sailor

https://t.me/evilsailor/801 - zinc

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/9171475.html

Consequences of "good mood"
May 27, 11:33 p.m

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One of the many cemeteries in the Kharkov area.

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Consequences of a “good mood” on the Maidan.

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/9172088.html

Google Translator

******

Western Arms Supplies to Ukraine Prevent Peaceful Solutions

Margaret Kimberley, BAR Executive Editor and Senior Columnist 22 May 2024

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Image webtv.un.org

Margaret Kimberley, Executive Editor of Black Agenda Report, was invited to brief the United Nations Security Council on May 20, 2024, as a civil society representative. The subject of the meeting was weapons supplies to Ukraine as a threat to peace and security.

Thank you, Mr. President. Thank you all for this opportunity to address the Security Council and to provide a briefing on the issue of peace as it relates to Ukraine and its connections with people in this country and all over the world.

As a journalist, Executive Editor of Black Agenda Report, and a member of the Black Alliance for Peace and of the United National Antiwar Coalition, and as a citizen of the United States, the nation which has taken a lead role in continuing this crisis, I am very eager to speak to this issue. As of now, the U.S. government has allocated nearly $175 billion for the Ukrainian war effort and to support the workings of Ukraine’s civilian government.

For the last two years we have seen a terrible war which would end if this country and others would stop providing arms and instead seek peace. There were opportunities for that very thing to happen in March and April of 2022, when the government of Turkiye hosted peace talks between Ukraine and the Russian Federation. The possibility of peace was lost when my country and others subverted these talks by promising the government of Ukraine that it would receive an endless supply of weapons with which to achieve a military victory. Not only has that victory been elusive, but thousands of Ukrainians, the people this country claims to care so much about, have lost their lives. And of course, many Russians have also perished in the fighting. The goal should be for the death toll to end for both nations.

We don’t have to guess why this huge sum of money has been spent. We need only recall what the president of the United States and his foreign policy team have said publicly. The Secretary of Defense famously said in a rare moment of candor, that the U.S. wanted to “see Russia weakened.” This is a dangerous goal for the United States to have at all. The world needs cooperation. It is the only way to avoid escalation and disastrous outcomes between the major powers. The U.S. shouldn’t be attempting to weaken any nation but should be continuously engaged in finding ways to prevent and to end conflicts.

Not only is the Secretary’s confession dangerous, but it has surely failed. President Biden himself said that U.S. imposed sanctions against Russia would “turn the ruble to rubble.” No such thing has happened, but other nations have suffered economically from the futile effort to keep Russian oil off of world markets. Global South nations in particular were most impacted by what turned out to be a failed effort against Russia. More developed nations, those in Europe, have been deprived of affordable gas supplies they reliably received from Russia for decades.

There have been other serious consequences and some of them have fallen on people in this country, the one most responsible for continuing the crisis. Project Ukraine as it is called is a bipartisan effort, with both Democrats and Republicans supporting the continued infusion of huge sums of money to the defense industry, the Military Industrial Complex (MIC) and to dubious projects in Ukraine itself. This funding is not just spent on the military but is literally supplying many domestic government functions within that country. Most Americans are unaware that small businesses in Ukraine are being supported with their public funds. At least $25 billion in non-military aid has been spent.

It isn’t as if people in this country aren’t in need of help. Money for weapons continues thanks to consensus among the political class while needy people here are being removed from the Medicaid program which pays for health care for low-income people, as well as the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program. Students take on thousands of dollars in debt to attend universities. The same administration which is committed to spending money on weapons has never presented a plan to help the estimated 500,000 people in the U.S. who are unhoused. There are constantly calls to cut or end these programs altogether but the funding stream for war remains untouched. Democracy itself is in crisis because of these endless conflicts. War is not the only indicator of violence in the world and peace is not just the absence of conflict. War making leads to immiseration, which is antithetical to the concept of peace.

The U.S. public do not have the unanimity of opinion on Ukraine that one would expect considering that billions of dollars have been allocated. Even those who say they support this effort also say that they would like to see negotiations too. A recent poll indicated that 71% of people in this country would like to see a negotiated settlement instead of ongoing conflict.

But the millions of Americans who want an end to the conflict have been deprived of the representation we are supposed to have. Not only does the administration refuse to reconsider its position, but there are reports that President Biden wants to prevent future presidents from playing a different role. According to President Zelensky, he is working with the U.S. and other NATO nations on a ten-year plan to provide weapons. Joe Biden can only serve for a maximum of four and a half more years, meaning that he wants to make a commitment that a future president could not change. In so doing, he invalidates the concerns of voters in this country and of the people who are supposed to represent them.

As a citizen of the United States, I am frankly shocked by the lengths this country will go to in order to pursue a dangerous plan that is doomed to failure. The most recent tranche of U.S. weapons funding is dependent upon Ukraine mobilizing more men, approximately 500,000. Several million Ukrainians fled to nearby states in 2022 but now they are told they cannot renew their passports abroad. They must return to Ukraine where we see videos of men literally being press ganged into service, dragged off the street and forced to join the military. The freedom that is allegedly being fought for seems to require a lack of freedom for Ukrainians who face the risk of death on the battlefield. This corruption requires a steady stream of indoctrination and propaganda to keep the U.S. population from asking questions or actively opposing the war. I suppose that is why Secretary of State Antony Blinken thought it wise to perform with a Ukrainian band on his last visit to Kiev. Not only that, but neither the Secretary nor his handlers were aware that the song he performed, “Rockin’ in the Free World,” is a lament about poverty and hopelessness in a supposedly free world which isn’t truly free for millions of people. The administration is so divorced from reality that they thought it wise for Secretary Blinken to play this song as men are rounded up to be cannon fodder.

I want to add that this conflict didn’t begin in February 2022. It began years earlier with the U.S. plan to have Ukraine join NATO. In 2008 William Burns, then U.S. Ambassador to Russia, revealed in a cable known to us, because of the work of Wikileaks, that doing so would cross a Russian red line and potentially lead to “a major split, involving violence or at worst civil war.” As we all know Wikileaks publisher Julian Assange languishes in a UK prison, facing extradition to the country that has made an example of him because he has revealed secrets such as this cable.

I reiterate that there have been peace proposals in the past two years, with the most recent attempt being made by the People’s Republic of China, which has developed a comprehensive 12-point plan that could mean the end of destruction and suffering if it is given serious consideration.

Lastly, I would like to make a plea to the United Nations to use its power to investigate a catastrophic event that is tied to the Ukraine conflict. On September 26, 2022, the NordStream pipelines were destroyed in an explosion which also sent approximately 15 million tons of CO2 into the atmosphere, thus contributing to global warming.

Investigations have been closed without conclusion and at least one internationally known investigative journalist has provided evidence of U.S. responsibility. Sadly, no one in a position to investigate in this country has demanded an investigation. It is imperative that the United Nations undertake an independent investigation of its own. This is only possible if fantasies about domination are finally and firmly rejected. Doing so would free nations to be honest with one another, to struggle over issues but to resolve them without death or expenditures of money that are better used for human needs.

I end by thanking you profusely for this opportunity and for the work of the Security Council in upholding the United Nations Charter on behalf of the people of the world. Thank you so much.

https://blackagendareport.com/western-a ... -solutions

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REPORTS ON DESIRES FOR CEASEFIRE/NEGOTIATION ON UKRAINE
MAY 27, 2024 NATYLIESB
By Guy Faulconbridge & Andrew Osburn, Reuters, 5/24/24

MOSCOW/LONDON, May 24 (Reuters) – Russian President Vladimir Putin is ready to halt the war in Ukraine with a negotiated ceasefire that recognises the current battlefield lines, four Russian sources told Reuters, saying he is prepared to fight on if Kyiv and the West do not respond.

Three of the sources, familiar with discussions in Putin’s entourage, said the veteran Russian leader had expressed frustration to a small group of advisers about what he views as Western-backed attempts to stymie negotiations and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy’s decision to rule out talks.

“Putin can fight for as long as it takes, but Putin is also ready for a ceasefire – to freeze the war,” said another of the four, a senior Russian source who has worked with Putin and has knowledge of top level conversations in the Kremlin.

He, like the others cited in this story, spoke on condition of anonymity given the matter’s sensitivity.

For this account, Reuters spoke to a total of five people who work with or have worked with Putin at a senior level in the political and business worlds. The fifth source did not comment on freezing the war at the current frontlines.

Asked about the Reuters report at a news conference in Belarus on Friday, Putin said peace talks should restart.

“Let them resume,” he said, adding that negotiations should be based on “the realities on the ground” and on a plan agreed during a previous attempt to reach a deal in the first weeks of the war. “Not on the basis of what one side wants,” he said.

Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba said on X that the Russian leader was trying to derail a Ukrainian-initiated peace summit in Switzerland next month by using his entourage to send out “phony signals” about his alleged readiness to halt the war.

“Putin currently has no desire to end his aggression against Ukraine. Only the principled and united voice of the global majority can force him to choose peace over war,” said Kuleba.

Mykhailo Podolyak, a Ukrainian presidential adviser, said Putin wanted Western democracies to accept defeat.

NOT “ETERNAL WAR”
The appointment last week of economist Andrei Belousov as Russia’s defence minister was seen by some Western military and political analysts as placing the Russian economy on a permanent war footing in order to win a protracted conflict.

It followed sustained battlefield pressure and territorial advances by Russia in recent weeks.

However, the sources said that Putin, re-elected in March for a new six-year term, would rather use Russia’s current momentum to put the war behind him. They did not directly comment on the new defence minister.

Putin’s spokesman Dmitry Peskov, in response to a request for comment, said the country did not want “eternal war.”

Based on their knowledge of conversations in the upper ranks of the Kremlin, two of the sources said Putin was of the view that gains in the war so far were enough to sell a victory to the Russian people.

Europe’s biggest ground conflict since World War Two has cost tens of thousands of lives on both sides and led to sweeping Western sanctions on Russia’s economy.

Three sources said Putin understood any dramatic new advances would require another nationwide mobilisation, which he didn’t want, with one source, who knows the Russian president, saying his popularity dipped after the first mobilisation in September 2022.

The national call up spooked part of the population in Russia, triggering hundreds of thousands of draft age men to leave the country. Polls showed Putin’s popularity falling by several points.

Peskov said Russia had no need for mobilisation and was instead recruiting volunteer contractors to the armed forces.

The prospect of a ceasefire, or even peace talks, currently seems remote.

Zelenskiy has repeatedly said peace on Putin’s terms is a non-starter. He has vowed to retake lost territory, including Crimea, which Russia annexed in 2014. He signed a decree in 2022 that formally declared any talks with Putin “impossible.”

One of the sources predicted no agreement could happen while Zelenskiy was in power, unless Russia bypassed him and struck a deal with Washington. However, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken, speaking in Kyiv last week, told reporters he did not believe Putin was interested in serious negotiations.

SWISS TALKS
The Swiss peace summit in June is aimed at unifying international opinion on how to end the war. The talks were convened at the initiative of Zelenskiy who has said Putin should not attend. Switzerland has not invited Russia.

Moscow has said the talks are not credible without it being there. Ukraine and Switzerland want Russian allies including China to attend.

Speaking in China on May 17, Putin said Ukraine may use the Swiss talks to get a broader group of countries to back Zelenskiy’s demand for a total Russian withdrawal, which Putin said would be an imposed condition rather than a serious peace negotiation.

The Swiss foreign ministry did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

In response to questions for this story, a U.S. State Department spokesperson said any initiative for peace must respect Ukraine’s “territorial integrity, within its internationally recognised borders” and described Russia as the sole obstacle to peace in Ukraine.

“The Kremlin has yet to demonstrate any meaningful interest in ending its war, quite the opposite,” the spokesperson said.

Kyiv says Putin, whose team repeatedly denied he was planning a war before invading Ukraine in 2022, cannot be trusted to honour any deal.

Both Russia and Ukraine have also said they fear the other side would use any ceasefire to re-arm.

Kyiv and its Western backers are banking on a $61 billion U.S. aid package and additional European military aid to reverse what Zelenskiy described to Reuters this week as “one of the most difficult moments” of the full scale war.

As well as shortages of ammunition after U.S. delays in approving the package, Ukraine has admitted it is struggling to recruit enough troops and last month lowered the age for men who can be drafted to 25 from 27.

TERRITORY
Putin’s insistence on locking in any battlefield gains in a deal is non-negotiable, all of the sources suggested.

Putin would, however, be ready to settle for what land he has now and freeze the conflict at the current front lines, four of the sources said.

“Putin will say that we won, that NATO attacked us and we kept our sovereignty, that we have a land corridor to Crimea, which is true,” one of them said, giving their own analysis.

Freezing the conflict along current lines would leave Russia in possession of substantial chunks of four Ukrainian regions he formally incorporated into Russia in September 2022, but without full control of any of them.

Such an arrangement would fall short of the goals Moscow set for itself at the time, when it said the four of Ukraine’s regions – Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson – now belonged to it in their entirety.

Peskov said that there could be no question of handing back the four regions which were now permanently part of Russia according to its own constitution.

Another factor playing into the Kremlin chief’s view that the war should end is that the longer it drags on, the more battle-hardened veterans return to Russia, dissatisfied with post-war job and income prospects, potentially creating tensions in society, said one of the sources, who has worked with Putin.

‘RUSSIA WILL PUSH FURTHER’
In February, three Russian sources told Reuters the United States rejected a previous Putin suggestion of a ceasefire to freeze the war.

In the absence of a ceasefire, Putin wants to take as much territory as possible to ratchet up pressure on Ukraine while seeking to exploit unexpected opportunities to acquire more, three of the sources said.

Russian forces control around 18% of Ukraine and this month thrust into the northeastern region of Kharkiv.

Putin is counting on Russia’s large population compared to Ukraine to sustain superior manpower even without a mobilisation, bolstered by unusually generous pay packets for those who sign up.

“Russia will push further,” the source who has worked with Putin said.

Putin will slowly conquer territories until Zelenskiy comes up with an offer to stop, the person said, saying the Russian leader had expressed the view to aides that the West would not provide enough weapons, sapping Ukraine’s morale.

U.S. and European leaders have said they will stand by Ukraine until its security sovereignty is guaranteed. NATO countries and allies say they are trying to accelerate deliveries of weapons.

“Russia could end the war at any time by withdrawing its forces from Ukraine, instead of continuing to launch brutal attacks against Ukraine’s cities, ports, and people every day,” the State Department said in response to a question about weapons supplies.

All five sources said Putin had told advisers he had no designs on NATO territory, reflecting his public comments on the matter. Two of the sources cited Russian concerns about the growing danger of escalation with the West, including nuclear escalation, over the Ukraine standoff.

The State Department said the United States had not adjusted its nuclear posture, nor seen any sign that Russia was preparing to use a nuclear weapon.

“We continue to monitor the strategic environment and remain ready,” the spokesperson said.

***

Russia Matters, 5/24/24

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy told Reuters that the June 15-16 peace conference in Switzerland is to focus on ensuring nuclear security, the safety of shipping in the Black Sea and Azov Sea, the return of Ukrainian children from Russia to Ukraine and the exchange of all POWs. While all these issues have earlier appeared in Zelenskyy’s peace formula, the peace formula has included several other components, including the restoration of Ukraine’s territorial integrity and prosecution of Russian officials in the International Criminal Court. However, Reuters’ summary of the 57-minute interview with Zelenskyy doesn’t include these additional issues, and it remains unclear if the Ukrainian president will try to discuss them at the summit.1 Meanwhile, Zelenskyy’s main diplomatic push to secure broader global support against Russia’s invasion at the pending summit has suffered a double blow, according to Bloomberg. First, Brazil and China announced a rival initiative early on May 24, inviting other nations to support their call for an international conference involving Russia and Ukraine to discuss an end to the war. Second, it emerged that U.S. President Joe Biden would likely be a no-show at the event because it clashes with an election fundraiser in California, according to Bloomberg.

https://natyliesbaldwin.com/2024/05/rep ... n-ukraine/

******

Burnt Abrams
May 29, 12:32

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Another American Abrams tank destroyed west of Avdievka.
This vehicle was hit on May 2. Now this area has come under the control of our troops and this fried Abrams will also be dragged to the rear

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Traditionally, Babchenko’s corpses have not been found.

Photo "Veles from the trench"

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/9175210.html

Over half of them killed or captured. It wouldn't be a big deal if the Ukes and the West hadn't touted these and other wunderwaffe as game-changers. Never pays to believe your own bullshit.

Assault on Krasnogorovka
May 29, 11:26

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Assault operations in the city limits of Krasnogorovka with the entry of an armored group into city blocks.

Plus a large video of a drone inspection of the Krasnogorovka area.

(Videos at link.)

At the moment, most of the city, including the Refractory Plant, is under the control of Russian troops.

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/9174942.html

Google Translator
"There is great chaos under heaven; the situation is excellent."

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blindpig
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Re: Footnotes from the Ukrainian "Crisis"; New High-Points in Cynicism Part V

Post by blindpig » Thu May 30, 2024 11:57 am

Economic adaptation models
POSTED BY @NSANZO ⋅ 05/30/2024

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Neither in its development nor in its causes and consequences is war solely a military event. All kinds of political, geopolitical, military and economic factors make up a situation that goes far beyond the territorial control maps, the positions occupied by the armies in battle, the logistics of getting weapons and ammunition to the troops or the tactics and strategy with which each side chooses to act in the conflict. In the case of the economy, the war begins long before the first battles break out and the consequences for the participating States last after the signing of the treaty with which they end. Due to its intensity, extension and magnitude, the war between Russia and Ukraine is marking a turning point in the economic aspect at the European level, especially due to the continental breakup that it has created. Although it is not only the countries in conflict that are affected, it is in them that the main changes are perceived.

The confidence with which representatives of the European Union proclaimed in February 2022 that the sanctions imposed against Russia after the invasion of Ukraine were going to destroy the Russian economy and prevent Moscow from maintaining industrial production to supply its troops has turned into pessimism in the present and uncertain promises for the future. At the moment when Russian troops violated Ukraine's borders, the European Union activated the mechanisms planned to prevent Russia from accessing its markets, confirmed that Nord Stream-2 would not come into operation and, together with the United States and other Western allies, promoted that, with few exceptions, Russian banks be disconnected from the SWIFT system. In a global context like the current one and as part of the Western world, Russia thus had to encounter practically insurmountable barriers when exporting its raw materials and importing such important elements as semiconductors or technological products and, without access to the usual payment system, almost completely isolated. Russian strength, its ability to withstand this Western onslaught, the decrease in unemployment and the increase in real wages and industrial production do not hide the high inflation, the risk of overheating of the economy, foreign dependence when purchasing products basics for the State, the difficulties in finding personnel in specialized sectors or that the relative increase of the State in the economy is due practically exclusively to the field of the military industry.

The needs of war are also observed in the changes in financing methods. With exports necessarily limited, Russia is aware that it cannot resist an economic confrontation with the West, a much more powerful bloc, while maintaining its pre-war structure. This is reflected by the changes in the Ministry of Defense, for which Vladimir Putin has appointed as minister an economist known for being less “commercial” and privatizing than other members of the economic establishment . The control of economic flows linked to Defense, which includes the military-industrial complex, is also observed in the recent purge of officers who are accused of corruption precisely for their actions in contracts linked to military supplies. It is there, in the military industry, where this increase in production is taking place, much less noticeable in other manufacturing sectors, in which Russia continues to prefer to look for alternative markets to Western countries, mainly in China or India, instead of reindustrializing. your economy.

Sometimes war allows us to take steps that would have been impossible under other conditions. For more than two decades, the single rate, the flat tax , had been the hallmark of Russian fiscal policy, deeply regressive and without any intention of limiting inequality. After months of rumors, the Government seems to be about to start the debate to slightly qualify this single rate. Although with limitations - the change would not affect, for example, the income of soldiers fighting in the war - the measures provide for four sections and an increase in the tax burden from 15 to 22% for those who receive income above the 50 million rubles (just over half a million euros). Although minimal, the change means reversing, at least temporarily, one of the star measures of the Russian liberal stage, a necessity when adapting to conditions of war of attrition in which Russia must support its State by itself and your economy.

Inflation, a precipitous drop in industrial production and a collapse of the economy were the consequences of the war for Ukraine in 2022. However, easy access to external financing has allowed Kiev to sustain its economy and even boast a growth of almost 5% in 2023, an absolutely fictitious figure since it depends exclusively on subsidies from its allies. The certainty of having an external and unconditional source of income has allowed Ukraine not to have to make changes that Russia has been forced to make. Unlike Russia, Ukraine has not been forced to sacrifice any of its ideology to adapt to the economic realities of war. Even in the most compromised moments in military terms, Ukraine has remained firm in its intentions to move towards an economic model in which everything is left in the hands of the market. That has been the objective throughout the years of independence and the arrival of Zelensky, closer to the North American libertarian model than to European liberalism, has only deepened that trend. It is therefore not surprising that the war has not prevented Ukraine from continuing with its privatization desire or that this will be the logic of the approach to future reconstruction, a trend that precedes the Russian invasion. The large multinationals, some of them known for their voracity, had already positioned themselves for the reconstruction of Donbass and to carry out major works, always based on state investment and large business profits. However, now is when they will be key. Public-private collaboration and privatization were already the basis of the first reconstruction summit held in the United Kingdom in 2023, at a time when it was evident that reconstruction could not be carried out in the short or medium term. “The “Ukraine Recovery Conference” is held in London, urging “international companies” to invest in Ukraine in its “ambitious reform program.” This includes “reducing the size of government”, “privatisation”, “deregulation” and “freedom of investment””, Declassified UK denounced at the time., one of the few media that criticized a summit whose objective was economic benefits and not those of the country's population. In the coming months, the continuation of this summit will be held, this time in Germany, and for which large international companies are already preparing. Corporate profit is paramount for the private sector, while Ukraine seeks investment from foreign companies, not only to advance its privatization intentions, but also to guarantee a Western economic presence that makes it impossible for the country to be abandoned as it has been in the past. other proxies have passed at the moment when they have ceased to be useful in geopolitical terms.

The Ukrainian approach is not devoid of hypocrisy. Favoring the private sector does not mean giving up demanding foreign public financing or the loss of prominence of the allied states in the economic war. Ukraine not only begs its partners for funding, but also demands greater pressure against Russia in the form of sanctions. In the Ukrainian case, economic measures against Russia are not only a way of trying to prevent Moscow from continuing the war, but are also part of the Ukrainian attempt to consolidate a continental rift that harms some of its main partners.

“Our main story this morning is about the European Union sanctions, which have ended up doing more harm to us than to Putin,” wrote Wolfgang Munchau yesterday, describing the economic measures against Moscow as an “own goal.” This is the case, for example, of Germany, the traditional driving force of the European Union, whose industry has suffered significantly as a result of the continental breakup caused by the war in Ukraine. Although coercive measures began in 2014 after the annexation of Crimea, sectoral sanctions, blocking of accounts and properties in Western countries or entry bans to those territories not only did not cause special damage to the Russian economy, but they also did not prevent Trade relations continued, sometimes to the chagrin of allies across the Atlantic. With very different interests, the United States and Canada looked with dismay on projects such as the expansion of the Nord Stream gas pipeline, which linked the main energy supplier with its main client, Germany, the only truly relevant European rival in terms of industrial production. .

“According to one study, an especially high number of industrial companies closed during last year's economic recession. In the construction sector, the number increased by 2.4%, to 20,000. In the manufacturing sector, 11,000 companies closed, according to a study published on Tuesday by the credit agency Creditreform in collaboration with the Leibniz Center for European Economic Research (ZEW). This is an increase of 8.7% and the highest level since 2004. According to the study, the industrial base is shrinking,” Frankturter Zeitung wrote yesterday in relation to the state of the German economy, which has been particularly affected by the industry that requires large amounts of energy. The barrier erected in the east of Ukraine and Poland has caused Germany to lose an important market and, above all, its main energy partner. With this, German industry has lost one of the bases of its competitiveness. But also in Berlin the war has achieved the impossible. Instead of looking for a way to regain that preferential treatment it enjoyed, Germany seems willing to stay the course. There is no step back but, as Bloomberg reported yesterday , the Minister of Economy Habbeck is pressing together with his Czech counterpart for the European Union to cease the scarce imports of Russian gas that still remain, fundamentally in the form of liquefied natural gas. War causes changes, contradictions and even provokes acts that harm the country that carries them out and benefit its opponents. Liquefied natural gas suppliers such as the United States or Qatar are already smelling the benefits while European countries continue trying to adapt to an economic situation of rupture of continental relations or, as in the case of Ukraine, try to provoke them. Even if it is at the expense of its main European partner.

https://slavyangrad.es/2024/05/30/29854/

Google Translator

******

From Cassad's Telegram account:

Colonelcassad
Forwarded from
Dog "P"
Today is 40 days since my beloved husband, the author of this channel, a strong and brave man, a talented person, a musician and a bright reporter of our time, has been gone.
I never thought that I would ever write in this channel, but fate decreed that I was obliged to write.
Semyon knew how to be honest in everything he did. And in this channel - he was honest with his reader, on TV with his viewer. He told everything that he saw and felt, and he saw and felt better and more deeply than many others. He was able to consider the entire palette of meanings and tell them in such a way that even the most indifferent and deaf person, who thinks that “this doesn’t concern me,” suddenly realized!!!😂🤦‍♀️there is a matter and a very important matter at that.
Semyon died in the war! In the war that is going on right now. And if anyone turns a blind eye to reality because “it’s out there somewhere...” or “oh, how tired of you,” or even better, “why are they on TV... they’re all lying,” then I have bad news for you - “this” war concerns everyone who lives and works in our country! EVERYONE'S words, thoughts and actions matter. Indifference to the situation and disrespect for journalists who, at the cost of their lives, show all the cruelty that is really happening right now - this is a betrayal.
This channel has something that few people talk about - about war, not only the one where they kill people, but also the one where they turn living people into zombies! Okay, the “brotherly” people are sick! But here we are...
Semyon knew how to write and speak in such a way that many came to reality! And they understood what was happening. His work is still available today if you need some guidance.
The memory of Semyon will live on! There will be murals with his image on houses in Russian cities. In the professional community, he is one of the best! And those who choose the path of a reporter will be guided by his work.
The gadget (the sharpener that he invented) will be known and in demand throughout the world!
This will all be the case already.
The memory is alive. Semyon will still do a lot even after his death.

And for murderers: the pain of Russian widows and single mothers is so terrible, dark and insatiable, and it will come to you and your loved ones only a thousand times stronger and more terrible. It has always been this way and it will be so now.

***

Colonelcassad
Summary of the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation on the progress of the special military operation (as of May 29, 2024) | The main thing:

- Russian air defense forces shot down a Ukrainian MiG-29 aircraft and 31 drones in one day;

- The Ukrainian Armed Forces lost up to 125 military personnel in the area of ​​responsibility of the Eastern Group of the Russian Armed Forces;

- Units of the "West" group occupied more advantageous positions and defeated six brigades of the Ukrainian Armed Forces and the National Guard of Ukraine;

- The eastern group of troops occupied more advantageous positions and defeated the manpower and equipment of two brigades of the Ukrainian Armed Forces;

- The North group of troops defeated enemy brigades and repelled 4 counterattacks, the losses of the Ukrainian Armed Forces per day amounted to 165 military personnel;

- Units of the Eastern Group of Forces repelled a counterattack by the Ukrainian Armed Forces assault group;

- The Ukrainian Armed Forces lost up to 400 military personnel in the zone of responsibility of the Western Group of Forces;

- Units of the Southern Group of the Russian Armed Forces improved the situation along the front line and hit the manpower and equipment of three brigades of the Armed Forces of Ukraine;

- The Ukrainian Armed Forces lost up to 245 military personnel and six ammunition depots in the area of ​​responsibility of the Southern Group of Forces.

Units of the Vostok group of troops occupied more advantageous positions and defeated the manpower and equipment of the 58th motorized infantry brigade of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, the 128th terrestrial defense brigade in the areas of the settlements of Urozhainoye and Storozhevoye of the Donetsk People's Republic.

A counterattack by the assault group of the 72nd mechanized brigade of the Ukrainian Armed Forces was repelled. Enemy losses amounted to up to 125 military personnel, a tank , two armored combat vehicles and six vehicles.

▫️Units of the Dnepr group of troops defeated the personnel of the 128th mountain assault brigade of the Ukrainian Armed Forces and the 35th Marine Brigade in the areas of the settlements of Kamenskoye, Dnepropetrovsk region, Tyaginka and Chervony Mayak, Kherson region.

The Ukrainian Armed Forces' losses amounted to up to 35 military personnel, four vehicles, and a 122-mm D-30 howitzer . The Ukrainian Armed Forces' missile and artillery weapons warehouse was destroyed .

▫️ During the day, operational-tactical aviation, unmanned aerial vehicles, missile forces and artillery of groupings of troops of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation hit : a warehouse of unmanned boats, aviation equipment , a fuel warehouse for military equipment of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, an assembly shop for unmanned aerial vehicles, as well as accumulations of manpower and military enemy equipment in 118 areas.

▫️ A MiG-29 aircraft of the Ukrainian Air Force was shot down by air defense systems .

During the day, 31 unmanned aerial vehicles , two US-made HARM anti-radar missiles , two French-made Hammer guided bombs , as well as nine Grad and Alder missiles were destroyed .

▫️In total, since the beginning of the special military operation, the following have been destroyed : 605 aircraft, 274 helicopters, 24,770 unmanned aerial vehicles, 524 anti-aircraft missile systems, 16,191 tanks and other armored combat vehicles, 1,322 combat vehicles of multiple launch rocket systems, 9,930 field artillery guns and mortars, as well as 22093 units of special military vehicles.

https://t.me/s/boris_rozhin

Google Translator


Russo-Ukrainian War: Widening the Front
The Fifth Battle of Kharkov

BIG SERGE
MAY 25, 2024

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There are certain regions of the world that seemed destined by the cruel caprice of geography and chance to be perennial battlegrounds. Often these ravaged lands lay at the crossroads of imperial interests, as in the case of Afghanistan or Poland, which have been so frequently trampled by armies going this way or that, or else they are simply plagued by perennially unstable governance or roiling ethnic conflict. Sometimes, however, it is the peculiar logic of military operations that brings violence to the same place, again and again. One such notorious sufferer is the great industrial city of Kharkov, in northeastern Ukraine.

Originally founded as a modest fortress in the 17th Century, Kharkov was fated to play an unusual role in the Second World War. The city became a sort of symbol of frustration for the warring Soviet and German armies: it was the place that both armies wanted to get to, but could not quite seem to take and hold. In 1941 the city was captured in the waning phases of Germany’s colossal invasion of the USSR, and fell under occupation through the winter. In 1942, the city’s environs became the scene of an enormous battle when the Germans planned to launch an offensive out of Kharkov at exactly the same time that the Red Army planned an offensive towards it. The following year, the city was briefly recaptured by the Red Army as it pursued retreating German armies away from Stalingrad, before once again changing hands after a timely German counterattack. Finally, at the end of August 1943, the Soviets retook the city for good as they began their inexorable drive towards Berlin.

No major city changed hands as many times in World War Two as did Kharkov, which became the scene of no less than four substantial battles. The cruelty of fate had turned Kharkov into a sort of mutual culmination point - the spot on the map beyond which both armies repeatedly found it difficult to advance.

History does not repeat, as they say, but it does rhyme. Kharkov’s strategic position, as the great urban center blocking the inner bend of the northern Donets River, has not changed much in the eighty years since the Soviets and the Germans last fought in the forests here, and Kharkov Oblast is once more becoming the rope in a deadly game of tug of war. The area was briefly overrun by the Russian army in the opening weeks of the Special Military Operation, with the Russians establishing a screening line to cover their capture of the Lugansk shoulder. Later that year, Kharkov became the scene of Ukraine’s seminal military achievement of the war, when they overran the thin Russian defenses and launched a pursuit all the way to the Oskil River. And now, the Russians are back, launching a fresh attack into Kharkov Oblast on May 10. The sound of artillery is once again heard in the city.

The Northern Front
I understand the impulse to draw “big arrows”, as the parlance goes. Many people are becoming frustrated with the pace of the war and the positional nature of the combat, and so Russia opening a new front looks like a chance to unlock the frontline and restore mobile operations. I think this is misguided for several reasons, and more generally the idea that the Russians are making some sort of serious play for Kharkov is very wrongheaded. In fact, the opposite is true - it’s likely that we will see the Russians attempt to avoid fighting in Kharkov’s shadow. On the other end of the spectrum are those labeling the new offensive a “feint”, which is wrong both as a misunderstanding of the military nomenclature and of the Russian intentions.

First off, let’s clarify something about the word “feint”, and see how it does not at all apply to Russia’s Kharkov operation. A feint refers to a deceptive or distracting maneuver designed to disrupt the enemy’s decision making or pull his forces out of position. That is not what is happening here, for two reasons. First, the Kharkov operation is a real attack involving meaningful Russian forces. Russia currently has two Army Corps in this area of operations - the 11th and 44th, along with elements of the 6th Combined Arms Army and the 1st Guards Tank Army. This is a grouping with serious punch - the Ukrainians are of course forced to divert forces in response, but they are doing this not because they have been deceived but because the Russians are presenting a serious threat that warrants response. Secondly (as we will see shortly), this is an operation that has the potential to be supportive of Russia’s operations on the Oskil front (around Kupyansk).

In other words, it’s not a deception or a feint, but a real front that forces Ukraine to reallocate assets. By extending the front, they are drawing in Ukrainian reserves and fixing them in place - more on that later. But the new front is far more than just a distraction.

It may be useful to look a stripped down map of the area to get a handle on things. There are of course a variety of great mappers out there, like Kalibrated and Suryiak who do excellent work geolocating the war and marking front lines, but one drawback that they all share is that they use Google Maps for their base, which can make things look rather cluttered. In this case, a more minimalist view can help us see what is going on.

Right now, Russian operations are directed on two towns close to the border - Volchansk and Lypsti. Let’s consider what this means.

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The first thing that we have to note is that Volchansk is on the east bank of the Donets River, meaning it is on the Kupyansk side and not the Kharkov side. The initial Russian thrust managed to cut Volchansk off from the west bank of the river, which means the main route for AFU forces to access the town would be the arterial road running north and crossing the river at Staryi Saltiv. However, on May 11 the Russians managed to destroy the bridge in Staryi Saltiv. There were only two bridges over the Donets within 30 miles of Volchansk; one is now physically blocked by the Russians after they captured the village of Staritsa, and the other is destroyed. Russia has also struck several ancillary bridges on the Volchya river, preventing the Ukrainians from efficiently moving reserves to the flanks of Volchansk.

This has put the AFU in a real bind. To feed reinforcements into Volchansk, they are forced to take a circuitous route (crossing the Donets near Chuguiv) and drive up a well surveilled road where they are extremely vulnerable to Russian fires. In essence, Volchansk has become an isolated battlespace where approaching Ukrainian reserves can be pummeled on the march. Geolocated Ukrainian losses from LostArmor confirm this, with hits clustering on that main avenue of approach.

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LostArmor geolocated hits show Ukrainian losses mounting on the road into Volchansk

This has turned Volchansk into a very well shaped battlespace, with Russia managing to partially bifurcate the front along the Donets River. Meanwhile, the Russian advance on Lyptsi has an important supportive role, in that it will allow Russian tube artillery to bring the city of Kharkov in range.

Ukraine has to defend this front, of course. Most of Russia’s forces in this grouping are still in reserve, and it is very clear that the AFU cannot simply allow the Russians to open a backdoor to Kupyansk for free. However, in the short term this defense is costly for the AFU, because the shaping of the battlespace and the lanes of approach for their reserves allow Russia to fight an effective interdiction battle. The Ukrainian army simply does not have adequate road access to Volchansk to hold the town for long.

In sum, the reopening of the Northern Front does not signal a qualitative change in the conduct of the war, but it does create a major stress on the AFU. Russia is not going to suddenly unlock the front and begin slicing mobile operations. This is still the same war that it has been for the last two years, with methodical positional fighting and paralyzing strike capabilities. But the Kharkov front does serve a variety of Russian interests, and supports the following goals:

Stretch the front laterally to denude Ukrainian strength and draw in AFU reserves.

Fight an interdiction battle, striking AFU forces as they deploy on the east bank of the Donets and degrading Ukraine’s ability to sustain their defenses.

Place the AFU around Kharkov under tube artillery fire.

In the longer term, exploit the front by isolating the Ukrainian grouping around Kupyansk.

The most important aspect of all this, however, is the ability to both force the Ukrainians to commit precious assets *and* attrit them in an efficient manner by forcing them to feed units into an isolated combat area on the east bank of the Donets. Ukraine’s ability to generate new forces and provide replacements is reaching its limits, with mobilization covering perhaps only 25% of losses. Budanov has complained that there are essentially no reserves left, and Ukraine has begun begging for western military trainers to deploy in Ukraine to allow for faster throughput on their mobilization and deployment.

For Russia, therefore, it’s very important to prevent Ukraine from husbanding resources, and that means drawing as many AFU assets into well shaped battles as possible. Kharkov would be an ideal example of this, with an operationally significant pressure point opened up so that the AFU is forced to funnel forces into a furnace. Opening an additional front in Sumy would have a similar effect.

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The bigger problem for Ukraine, from a force generation perspective, is their increasing reliance on a small roster of premiere brigades which are constantly being shuttled around the front to fight fires and attend to pressing combat tasks. The most notorious example would be the 47th Mechanized Brigade, which was at the center of Ukraine’s failed Zaporizhian Counteroffensive before being scrambled to Avdiivka, where it was at the center of Ukraine’s fierce, but unsuccessful defensive stand. Now, the 47th is increasingly combat incapable, and a botched attempt to pull it out of the line for badly needed refit led to the debacle at Ocheretyne, where Russian forces exploited a yawning void in the Ukrainian line.

Reopening the Kharkov front creates yet another emergency to suck in these premiere assets. Already, the 93rd Mechanized Brigade has been scrambled into the Volchansk area - or at least, elements of it, as some units of the Brigade appear to still be fighting around Chasiv Yar in the Donbas. In total, the new Kharkov front seems to have absorbed nearly 30 Ukrainian battalions, which would be almost 10% of the AFU’s frontline strength (based on the 33 Division equivalent estimate that I discussed here).

The broader point here is that Russia’s vastly superior force generation allows it to accelerate the burn off of Ukraine combat power in two ways. First, by widening the front, they can create more and more hotspots that force the rapid reshuffling of Ukraine’s premiere assets; secondly, simply extending the active front can force Ukraine to feed newly mobilized personnel into the front faster.

The mess at Ocheretyne provides the best example of this. This sector had originally been under the auspices of the 47th Mechanized - once a premiere asset, now a hollow shell. When an attempt to swap the 47th out of the line went horribly wrong, how did the AFU plug the gap? By rushing in the 100th Mechanized Brigade - a unit which had been constituted less than a month before, and which had not yet even received heavy weapons characteristic of a Mechanized formation.

These sorts of emergencies add up to a simultaneous burn off of both the AFU’s present and future combat power; keeping the 47th in high intensity combat for months degraded a current critical asset, and the ensuing gash in the line forced the AFU to prematurely send an embryonic brigade into combat, burning off the future.

Under conditions like these, it becomes frankly nonsensical to chart Ukraine’s path forward on the ground. An army that is in a constant state of reacting to emergencies can only continue for so long before they stop reacting at all, and an army that is constantly forced to scramble its best brigades around and deploy unprepared units to hold the line can never regain the initiative. It has no ability to accumulate resources, and remains in a permanent state of reactivity and awful, awful churn. Ultimately, this is an army with serious resource constraints and no ability to conserve those resources.

In effect, we’re now seeing Russia reverse the events of Autumn 2022, when the Russian army was forced to accept a radical shortening of the front - withdrawing from west bank Kherson and being run out of Kharkov oblast. In that case, it was Russia that had inadequate force generation. The difference is that Russia had a higher gear - untapped mobilization and a war economy that gave it the prospect of a long term surge in combat power. Ukraine doesn’t have a higher gear. Furthermore, Ukraine lacks the ability to shorten the front. Russia was able to withdraw from large sectors of the battlespace in order to more efficiently allocate resources. Ukraine cannot do this, because giving up sectors of front means letting the Russian army roll over large swathes of the country. Russia has the ability to both shorten and widen the front at will, and Ukraine does not. This pivotal strategic asymmetry is simply the reality for an overmatched country fighting on home turf.

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It is possible that Russia will further stretch the front with a similar foray into Sumy oblast - in either case, it’s highly unlikely that we see any serious effort to capture either Sumy or Kharkov. The main purpose of these fronts will be to fix Ukrainian reserves in place and denude Ukraine’s ability to react on other fronts. This war will not be won or lost in Kharkov, but in the Donbas, which remains the decisive theater.

We currently appear to be solidly in the preparatory/shaping phase of a Russian summer offensive in the Donbas, which (likely among other things) will feature a Russian drive on the city of Konstyantinivka. This is the last major urban area shielding the advance towards Kramatorsk-Slovyansk from the south (remembering that these twin cities form the ultimate objective of Russia’s campaign in the Donbas). Let’s make a brief perusal of what the lines of contact and advance look like on this front.

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The shape of the Russian advance is already quite clear, and was facilitated by the temporary Ukrainian collapse which allowed Russia to capture Ocheretyne in only a few days. Konstyantinivka (prewar population of some 70,000) sits at the center of a concentric Russian advance out of Ocheretyne and the Bakhmut area, and the emerging Russian operation here promises several major benefits.

The Russian advance out of Ocheretyne will have as its objective the highway connecting Konstyantinivka and Pokrovsk. The latter is among the most important transit hubs in the Donbas (the map below shows the spiderweb of highways running through it, like spokes through the hub of a wheel.) Pokrovsk’s nature as an operational hub means that Russia does not need to capture it to render it sterile; simply turning Pokrovsk into a frontline city, with Russian forces screening the eastward highways, will be sufficient to neuter it and handicap Ukrainian sustainment in the region. Ocheretyne also serves as a launching pad to partially (or perhaps fully) envelop the Toretsk-New York defenses.

Toretsk and New York are both strongly held and very well fortified settlements. They have been held continuously by the Ukrainian army since 2014, and accordingly are among the best fortified positions on the map. Russia will clearly aim to avoid a head on assault, and they are well positioned to do so. They can advance out of Ocheretyne and Klischiivka and approach the Toretsk agglomeration obliquely, taking them into a firebag and forcing a difficult Ukrainian decision as to whether to funnel resources into the defense there.

In short, I would expect Russia to begin a dedicated summer operation with Konstyantinivka as its center of gravity, aiming to capture Chasiv Yar for use as a launchpad against Konstyantinivka’s northern flank, while severing the line to Pokrovsk through advances out of Ocheretyne. Moving concentrically on Konstyantinivka in this manner will naturally bypass the Toretsk position.

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Expected Russian Summer Operations, Konstyantinivka Axis

Eyes on the prize, as they say. The locus of Russian operations continues to be their grind towards Kramatorsk and Slovyansk, notwithstanding the new extensions of the front in Kharkov (and potentially Sumy). By stretching the front, however, Russia is powerfully synergizing two of the critical asymmetries in this war - namely, that Ukraine has to defend on every front (Russia does not) while the Russian army has substantial reserves on hand (while Ukraine does not). The AFU simply does not have the luxury that Russia enjoyed in 2022 of being able to withdraw from large sectors of the front. They are obliged to respond to everything, at the cost of denuding their strength and hollowing out their positions elsewhere.

Command Shakeup
Russia’s extension of the front coincided with two important political events - somewhat oddly, an election that happened, and an election that did not. Vladimir Putin was predictably reelected easily as President of Russia - notwithstanding all manner of complaints about Russia’s state-steered media and regulated political culture, observers in the west have grudgingly admitted that the war in Ukraine has actually strengthened Putin’s popularity. Simultaneously, Zelensky’s legal term in office expired after Ukraine’s elections were cancelled, ostensibly due to the stresses of the war.

Putin’s reelection led almost immediately to a substantial rearrangement of the Russian national security leadership, followed by a currently unfolding series of arrests in the Russian officer corps. Let’s briefly consider the meaning of these changes.

The headline move, of course, was the removal of Defense Minster Sergei Shoigu with Andrei Belousov. Belousov is a technocratic economist by trade, who formerly held the economic development portfolio in the cabinet. Shoigu was shunted over to the secretariat State Security Council, which is still a meaningful role, responsible for the coordination of Russia’s security organs. The fact that Shoigu retains a prominent role means that his removal from the Defense Ministry is not entirely a rebuff, but Belousov is clearly being brought in for a particular reason.

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Andrei Belousov

The basic problem, as such, is that Russia’s defense spending has risen dramatically while problems with corruption (particularly in procurement) remain. There is no need to naively idealize the Russian state - corruption, while certainly much improved from the calamitous 90’s, does remain a thorn in the side of good governance, as in almost all post-Soviet states.

The obvious problem for Russia is that the stakes are obviously much higher during wartime, and the ballooning defense budget makes it harder to control such leakages. Simultaneously, Russia needs to chart a sustainable military-industrial policy as defense spending swells to some 7% of GDP. Hence, Belousov - a man known for being a true believing devotee of the state who lives a modest lifestyle and is himself seen as essentially resistant to corruption. The near instantaneous launch of a high-level purging of senior MoD officers under charges of corruption signals a similar sea change.

There is, however, another aspect of these anti-corruption arrests which is being overlooked. Most western analysis wants to regard these arrests as a Stalin-esque “purge”, possibly in an attempt by Putin to remove “Shoigu loyalists” from the ministry of defense. In this framework, Putin - like Stalin - fears a rival power center under Shoigu and wishes to neutralize an imagined threat by reassigning Shoigu and arresting “his men.” I think, rather, there is a different and more straightforward explanation. Putin has spoken repeatedly about his desire to promote a new Russian leadership cadre comprised of proven veterans of the SMO in Ukraine. Behind the particular Russian political vernacular, there’s an obvious truth: for the first time in the post-Soviet era, Russia has a growing pool of experienced and battle-hardened officers to promote. The arrested officers represent a class of peacetime promotions, grown soft and corrupt on the largesse of the MOD’s past permissiveness. Under Belousov, it is clearly intended that the MOD be remade with leadership made up of commanders proven in Ukraine. They want a leaner and more economizing defense apparatus led by wartime promotions. Who can blame them?

Putin’s team is clearly aiming to put the war economy on a sustainable footing, which means controlling costs, economizing resources, and cracking down on corruption. There are, however, some conflicting signals as to what this will look like. Belousov is known as a believer in the state’s role as the driver of industrial policy - some have taken this to mean that he will lead the transition to a perennial war economy, with military spending as a critical economic driver in the long run. I rather think it’s the opposite. Kremlin spokesman Dmitri Peskov noted that Russia’s defense spending had soared to levels not seen since the late Soviet era, and pontificated that this needed monitoring. Peskov noted that “it’s very important to put the security economy in line with the economy of the country” - in effect an official statement that defense spending is much higher than the government would like in the long run.

The mental picture that I have is one where defense spending ramped up in a somewhat uncontrolled manner as Russia kicked its war economy into gear, with Shoigu overseeing a sort of binging phase. Belousov is now being brought in to trim and economize; as a civilian technocrat, he is not connected to any of the military-industrial cliques and will have the political standoff required to manage the cutting phase.

Some of this is fairly standard stuff - new management for a restructuring phase; someone detached enough to make dispassionate cuts. In the United States, for example, the Truman administration made a series of personnel changes at the top as it attempted to rapidly demobilize from WW2 and bring spending back under control. Secretary of Defense Louis A Johnson even at one point mused that the Marine Corps might be abolished in its entirety. What is different about Russia’s case, of course, is that it is still very much in a state of war. Ordinarily it might be deemed unwise to change horses midstream, but the Putin team clearly feels that the situation on the ground is favorable enough (with Gerasimov keeping his post as chief of the general staff) and the need to rein in spending is great enough that he feels comfortable putting an economist in charge of a wartime defense apparatus.

Rockin’ in the Free World
While Putin was rearranging his cabinet and initiating high profile corruption arrests, a different sort of show was playing in Kiev. American Secretary of State Antony Blinken was in town, mesmerizing the people with his preternatural musical talents, playing hits like “Rockin in the Free World”.

The “Free World”, as the Atlantic Bloc sees itself, remains pivotal to the Ukrainian conflict, as the material and fiscal engine driving Ukraine’s ability to stay in the fight. Aside from the Kremlin, the American government is the decisive actor in Ukraine, and the stance of American policy is always among our chief considerations.

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What a cool guy

I think it’s worthwhile to think about the way American policy has changed vis a vis Ukraine. Slowly but surely, the United States has pushed through all of its self-imposed limitations on aid to Ukraine. It seems absurd now, but not so long ago the Pentagon was adamant that American tanks would not be sent to Kiev. There were similar hesitations around F-16 fighters, and ATACMs systems. All of those limits were eventually breached. We’ve reached the point where when Washington says there is some system that is off limits, it really means that Ukraine just has to wait a few more months.

Now we come to a point where one of the last remaining American taboos - the use of western weaponry to attack pre-war Russian territory - is being pushed on, with both congressional Republicans and Secretary of State Blinken urging the Biden administration to give the green light.

This seems to have been spurred at least partially by Russia’s new Kharkov front, with Ukrainian leadership complaining that they were unable to disrupt Russian staging due to American rules against firing on Russian territory. This is, of course, not true - Ukraine has been striking Belgorod oblast for many months, and have even made it a point of pride that they have “brought the war home” to Russia. We’re trapped in a narrative disparity where there are regular boasts about Ukraine’s successful strike program on targets in the Russian strategic rear, and yet we are to believe that the Russians were allowed to stage unmolested for the Kharkov operation because the AFU is not allowed to fire into Russia. It’s odd, to say the least.

Regardless, the track record shows that the American government will inexorably yield to every Ukrainian ask, given enough time. Abrams, F-16’s, ATACMs - Ukraine always ends up getting what it asks for. It seems likely that before long, the formal American blessing will be given to accelerate strikes on prewar Russia. Facilities inside Russia will be hit. The Kremlin’s response will underwhelm and infuriate its supporters on the internet.

The problem for Ukraine is that they tend to maniacally focus on token “big ticket” items that do not ameliorate their broader strategic crisis. License to hurl ATACMs at targets inside Russia is not a panacea for Ukraine’s bigger problem. Ukraine has already showed the ability to hit Russian strategic assets - sniping naval installations, radar, and air defense batteries. Ukraine’s successful strikes on such assets have continually trickled in as the west has propped up their strike capability with Storm Shadows, ATACMs, and more. And yet, Ukraine continues to give ground in the Donbas amid an increasingly dire shortage of basic war making necessities like infantry.

The trajectory of the war suggests that the NATO bloc will do everything in its power to prop up Ukraine’s strike capabilities, and that Ukraine will continue to hunt for high profile strategic assets, even as it continues to be ground down in the critical theater, which is the Donbas. When the AFU is finally ejected from their last toeholds along the line - losing Kramatorsk and Slovyansk, being squeezed out of southern Donetsk Oblast, and forced back on the west bank of the Oskil, the temptation in Kiev will be to blame the west - that they gave too little, too slowly, too late. This is one lie that they must not be allowed to get away with. The NATO Bloc has, virtually without exception, given Ukraine everything they’ve asked for. It just didn't matter.

https://bigserge.substack.com/p/russo-u ... dening-the

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Vremevskoe direction: tank raids in Staromayorskoe and battles in Urozhainy
May 29, 2024
Rybar

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Russian troops are advancing at the Staromayorskoye-Urozhainoye line , consistently displacing the enemy from their positions in populated areas and recapturing the populated areas lost during last year’s summer counter-offensive of the Ukrainian Armed Forces.

In Staromayorskoye, some time ago, tankers carried out a successful tank attack along Tsvetushaya and Shevchenko streets , during which the Russian Armed Forces were able to significantly advance in the center of the village. At the same time, there is information on the Internet about access to the northern outskirts of the village, but so far it does not correspond to reality.

Thus, one of the supply routes for Ukrainian units in the village from the Makarovka side was cut off, which is why the enemy lost positions in the central and western part of Staromayorsky .

In the western part of the village, Russian assault groups from the 218th Tank Regiment are advancing along Gogol Lane and the Mokrye Yaly River , as well as Vishneva and Zadneprovskaya streets : the advance in the area over the past two days has amounted to several hundred meters in width and depth.

Success here became possible after breaking through the enemy’s defenses in the center of the village, where armored vehicles could enter relatively safely after clearing the area. At the same time, the threat from FPV drone attacks remains, which should be kept in mind during the assault.

In Urozhainy, Russian troops, in the course of several attacks, advanced up to two hundred meters to the north in depth and up to 350 meters along the front along Tsentralnaya , Sadovaya and Stepovaya streets .

The relatively slow pace of progress is due to the fact that the Russian command is trying to protect personnel. The Russian Armed Forces conduct raids in small infantry groups, occupying several houses a day.

There, the enemy, in turn, offers more fierce resistance than in Staromayorskoye , and it is more difficult to deliver reserves to the village itself due to the control of the Ukrainian Armed Forces over the fields adjacent to Urozhaynoye from the east.

https://rybar.ru/vremevskoe-napravlenie ... rozhajnom/

Google Translator

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Field report: accusations against Russia about ZNPP attacks are unfounded lies

Lucas Leiroz

May 28, 2024

During a recent press expedition organized by the “Vashi Novosti” media group to the New Regions of the Russian Federation, international observers saw the reality of Europe’s largest nuclear power plant amid the current conflict.

Since 2022, the Zaporozhye Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) has been constantly attacked. Drones and missiles hit station’s facilities, raising fears about the possible leak of radioactive material. Moscow has repeatedly called on international observers to see the local reality, showing transparency and good will to resolve the situation, but Western powers still insist on accusing the Russian Federation of being responsible for the bombings.

Recently, the Russian press group “Vashi Novosti” organized a journalistic expedition to the New Regions of the Russian Federation. I participated in this trip representing the BRICS Journalists Association and had the opportunity to once again visit the conflict zone, this time passing, among other places, through Zaporozhye and its nuclear power plant.

We were welcomed by the station team and participated in a press conference with the director of the unit. On that occasion, we talked about the recent attacks, Russia’s efforts to avoid damage to the plant’s structure, the region’s integration process into the Russian State, as well as the presence of NATO weapons during the constant attacks carried out by the Kiev regime. An also important point addressed at the conference was the absolute absence of strategic interest in these attacks. According to spokespeople, the Ukrainian attitude could be considered truly terrorist.

The ZNPP team took us on a tour through the station’s main facilities, where we had the opportunity to get to know the structure and operation of the largest nuclear plant in Europe. What most caught the attention of all the journalists on the expedition was the quality of the work of the plant’s employees. The structure remains practically unchanged, even with so many attacks. There is a constant effort to prevent enemy provocations from generating any type of change in the natural energy production process. According to the ZNPP spokesperson with whom we spoke, today the station’s productivity is at normal levels, which reveals the high level of effectiveness in the work performed by the plant’s employees.

Certainly, the most impactful point of the visit to the plant was seeing the bombed sites. I and the other journalists saw the situation up close in the areas of the station affected by the attacks. Some drone and missile debris remain on the station, exposed to all observers, proving not to be Russian military material. The observation made it clear that there was no possibility that Russia was behind the attacks – not only because of the weapons used, but also because of the location of the attacks. The attacked regions of the plant clearly indicate that the drones and missiles came from Ukrainian positions. There is a logical and indisputable factor, since, if it were Russian troops attacking the plant, the affected areas would be different, directly in front to the regions under Russian control.

Recently, Rafael Grossi, head of the UN nuclear agency, was in Zaporozhye and stated that he did not see any illegal Russian weapons near the plant. The entire Russian military apparatus maintained in the region is defensive in nature, aiming to protect the station’s facilities. In practice, he stated that the weapons that attack ZNPP do not come from Russian positions. But, as expected, Grossi avoided making any formal accusations against Ukraine, as currently international organizations seem completely biased towards the West, agreeing not to condemn the Kiev regime for its crimes.

The absence of Russian offensive military material around ZNPP, the remains of Ukrainian weapons in the attacked regions and the location of the targets make it clear that Ukraine is to blame for the attacks. Legally, the Ukrainian state should be punished internationally, suffering sanctions for its incessant attempt to generate nuclear terror in the conflict zone. In a situation of military confrontation, hostilities are inevitable, but even so there are rules to be obeyed. Avoiding civilian suffering and radioactive contamination is a basic rule in the law of war – and the Kiev regime has shown itself incapable of complying with it.

https://strategic-culture.su/news/2024/ ... nded-lies/

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NATO’s escalation in Ukraine: A recipe for direct war on Russia?
May 28, 2024 Gary Wilson

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Soldiers from U.S. Army Europe’s Charlie Company demonstrate tactics to Ukrainian Marines and National Guard soldiers.

Ukraine is preparing for French military instructors’ arrival, reported Bloomberg News on May 28.

This announcement resulted from a high-level phone call between Ukraine’s Commander in Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi, Defense Minister Rustem Umerov, and French Defense Minister Sebastien Lecornu.

“I’ve already signed the documents that will allow the first French instructors to visit our training centers soon and familiarize themselves with their infrastructure and staff,” Syrskyi said on Telegram.

Earlier this year, French President Emmanuel Macron stated that “nothing should be ruled out” when asked about sending NATO troops to Ukraine. Lithuanian President Gitanas Nauseda has repeatedly expressed readiness to send professional soldiers for training missions to Ukraine. In March, Czech President Petr Pavel said sending military trainers would be possible.

The New York Times reported earlier this month that NATO members are moving closer to sending instructors into Ukraine to train its troops.

Gen. Charles Q. Brown Jr., the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said that U.S./NATO military “trainers” will be sent to Ukraine, according to the Times. “We’ll get there eventually, over time.”

Mark Episkopos says in Responsible Statecraft: “Brown’s comments tacitly concede two realities that Western officials have been loath to acknowledge: the Ukrainian war effort is slowly crumbling and cannot be sustained without a steady escalation of Western involvement.

“Yet there is a third factor that should be of serious concern to U.S. and European leaders: sending NATO personnel into Ukraine … [will] embroil NATO states, including the U.S., in a shooting war with Russian forces.”

First trainers, then combat troops

Yes, sending so-called military trainers is, in fact, an aggressive escalation. Imperialist military wars can start with “military trainers.” During the First Indochina War (1946-1954), French military trainers in Vietnam began an escalation of the imperialist war on Vietnam, eventually leading to the deployment of French combat troops. This eventually led to U.S. involvement, first with trainers, then followed by tens of thousands of combat troops.

On May 14, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken, in an unannounced visit to Kiev, vowed Washington would take “tangible steps” to ensure Ukraine’s addition to the NATO military alliance, RFE/RL reported.

Of course, NATO is already deeply involved in Ukraine, supplying weapons and training to the Ukrainian military.

On May 20, a bipartisan group of U.S. lawmakers sent a letter to Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin urging him to authorize the use of U.S.-supplied long-range weapons to strike deep within Russian territory. The letter reflects Congress’ growing move to escalate U.S. military operations in Ukraine, including expansion beyond Ukraine’s borders into Russia.

The letter, authored by House Intelligence Committee Chairman Michael Turner and other members of Congress, requests authorization for the use of U.S. weapons against strategic targets inside Russia and calls on the Defense Department to provide training for more Ukrainian pilots on operating F-16 fighter jets.

2014 coup regime is no democracy

The Ukraine regime was imposed in February 2014 by a U.S.-backed coup that overthrew the elected government. The far-right regime represents Western imperialist interests, local oligarchs and neo-Nazis. The residents of Ukraine’s Donetsk and Lugansk regions did not recognize the new regime. In April 2014, in the Donbass mining region, the autonomous Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics (DPR and LPR) were declared, and the Minsk Accords laid out the process for their recognition.

The Kiev regime never implemented the Minsk Accords and began military operations against Donetsk and Luhansk. Bombing and air raids targeted the civilian population, killing at least 15,000. Kiev massed an occupation army in the region. In February 2022, the DPR and LPR asked Russia for aid. That’s when Russia began its Special Military Operation, sending troops into DPR and LPR to secure their territorial integrity.

The Kiev regime declared martial law in 2022. All elections have been canceled. Elections for the Ukrainian parliament, where all opposition parties have been removed, were canceled. Presidential elections were scheduled for March 2024 but were canceled. Volodymyr Zelensky said, “Now is not the time for elections.”

There is no popular support for Zelensky, the regime, or its war. The Ukrainian population is being wiped out. At the start of 2022, Ukraine’s population was estimated to be around 42 million. By mid-2023, estimates suggest the population in Kiev-controlled areas has declined to as low as 28 million. Millions of Ukrainians have fled the country, and the birth rate has plummeted to a historic low in the last two years, reaching levels unseen in the past 300 years.

https://www.struggle-la-lucha.org/2024/ ... on-russia/

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Attack on Starokonstantinov. 05/30/2024
May 30, 12:06

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Night missile and unmanned attack of the Russian Aerospace Forces according to the enemy.
The main arrivals were at the Starokonstantinov airfield (arrivals are also confirmed by sources from the field) + another substation was cut down there.
Plus, they traditionally covered targets in Kharkov.

Regarding the story of the attack on the Yavorovsky training ground the other day, there is not much information yet - some sources report a large number of killed and wounded after missile attacks on buried targets.

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/9177432.html

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Re: Footnotes from the Ukrainian "Crisis"; New High-Points in Cynicism Part V

Post by blindpig » Thu May 30, 2024 6:55 pm

THE POPSKI SYNDROME – ALLIED DEFEAT TURNS INTO BATTLEFIELD FANTASIES

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by John Helmer, Moscow @bears_with

In war, exaggeration is a killer. In the media, exaggeration is a bestseller. In the current war there is a dearth of military and political analysts who for truth or money will tell the difference.

Instead, when the mentality of the war fighters is a combination of racial superiority and spetsnaz derring-do, what you get is the conviction that with one more brilliant operation and one more super-weapon, victory can be snatched from every indicator of defeat because the adversary will be persuaded to accept negotiations as he loses his nerve.

This is the meaning of the Anglo-American publicity which burst over the long Bank Holiday and Memorial Day weekend, as summer campaigning began in earnest for the July and November elections in the UK and US — with the incumbent in the former running 21 points behind, and the incumbent in the latter trailing on an approval margin of minus-16 points.

The Reuters propaganda agency, based in New York, is claiming to have found four Russians from “a senior level in the political and business worlds” to be talkative about what they say they know of the Kremlin’s end-of-war plans. “[President Vladimir] Putin can fight for as long as it takes, but Putin is also ready for a ceasefire – to freeze the war… Putin would, however, be ready to settle for what land he has now and freeze the conflict at the current front lines, four of the sources said. ‘Putin will say that we won, that NATO attacked us and we kept our sovereignty, that we have a land corridor to Crimea, which is true,’ one of them said, giving their own analysis.”

With just one more successful push from the Ukrainian side, Reuters and its four Russians believe, Putin will agree to give up his war. This push, which the western media have been amplifying this week, is the drone attacks on Russian radar stations for early warning of nuclear missile attack at Armavir, Krasnodar, and Orsk, Orenburg.

Although Russian military sources claim these attacks were pinpricks, and the second of them was shot out of the sky before detonation, western media are reporting that it is now the battle strategy of the US, the British, and the Ukrainians to provoke Putin into retaliation, crossing the red line of tactical nuclear warfare. That’s a red line, the allies are calculating, which Putin would rather negotiate end-of-war terms than cross.

A retired Moscow military analyst warns against the exaggeration, not of the attacks themselves, but of Putin’s power to decide end-of-war terms over the opposition of the General Staff and the new Defense Ministry. “It is obvious the Ukrainians have had a string of successful breakthroughs,” the source acknowledges, “– against ships, airfields, refineries, and now this radar site. We also understand it is not the Ukrainians: all target selection, identification, guidance, and the hardware are American or European. Where the command control of these launch sites is, we do not know but it might well not be in Ukraine.”

“But the Russian response will not be nuclear. That is impossible. There are a thousand options between doing nothing and going nuclear, and we can be sure the General Staff are working on all of them. So when people say this is provocation for a nuclear strike and that [Ukrainian President Vladimir] Zelensky is provoking it, we understand that, first, NATO planners know Putin will not go nuclear because he and his generals are too rational and sane. And second, Zelensky is not the one making the provocations. So the real red line now is not the nuclear arms provocations from the NATO side. That’s a fantasy of theirs. Just so, in response, I think it’s time Putin stops making threats and strikes at the source of these operations.”

When desperate weakness triggers battlefield fantasies, call this the Popski Syndrome.

Popski was the call sign and unit nickname assigned by the British Army headquarters in Cairo to a tiny unit of behind-the-lines special forces operating against the Italian and German armies in the Libyan deserts from late in 1941 until September 1943, when the war moved on to Italy, taking Popski with it. Popski’s unit numbered 24 men to start in Libya; in Italy, by the war’s end, it had reached 80.

Vladimir Peniakoff was Popski, born to wealthy Jewish Russians who fled the Revolution to install their aluminium business and themselves in Belgium, then the UK. With London publisher Jonathan Cape, Peniakoff imagined he could turn his small guerrilla war in the Libyan and Tunisian deserts into something approaching the bestsellerdom of the Seven Pillars of Wisdom, T.E.Lawrence’s story of the war of the Arabian peninsula tribes against the Turks between 1916 and 1918; first published in 1926.

Only Peniakoff’s wisdom turned out to be a combination of cynical racism towards his Arab allies; fondness for his German enemies; and exaggerated self-importance in commando or special forces operations, whose strategic rationale Peniakoff accepted enthusiastically without a second thought. But that thought does appear in the very last lines of the book after “Popski’s Private Army” — as it was called at the time, and on the book jacket — had manipulated, then betrayed the Libyan Arab and Berber tribes; promoted General Bernard Montgomery’s reputation for military genius; and drew the tender ministrations of New Zealand and Canadian girls working in the rear casualty hospitals where Peniakoff lost first a finger and then his left hand.

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Left. Vladimir Peniakoff’s book; Right: Peniakoff (front) in action. At first establishment in March 1942 Peniakoff’s Popski’s Private Army (PPA) comprised 24 men, including Peniakoff. Most of the troops were Libyan Arabs. According to Peniakoff, he told a conference of sheikhs of the Obaidi tribe: “My Government wants your help, and they want to help you…I told them that my Government had solemnly undertaken never to let their country come again under Italian rule after the victorious conclusion of the war.” This was a cynical lie. At the Potsdam Conference of the US, UK, and Soviet leaders in July 1945, the British and Americans were so nervous at the rise of the Communist Party in Italy, and of the parallel rise of Arab nationalism in Libya, Tunisia and Algeria, they offered to restore Italy’s colonial administration in Libya until Stalin insisted on a Soviet trusteeship of the territory to prepare the Libyans for independence. This story has been told in The Jackals’ Wedding, American Power, Arab Revolt – Chapter 7. A new history of Libya based on the records of the Obaidi tribe is being prepared. Popski’s betrayal of the Obaidi was the common Anglo-American policy in Libya until Muammar Qaddafi’s revolution of September 1, 1969.

Peniakoff’s last lines describe himself in his jeep in the train of a British cavalry unit on an Austrian alpine road crowded with German troops begging to surrender before the Russian Army, advancing a few kilometres away, caught up with them. Peniakoff, who could also speak fluent Russian, Arabic, French, Italian, and German, was stopped in the road by “the mass of a tank ahead of me, covered with a red Soviet flag.” According to Peniakoff, the tank commander “delivered a speech. He ended: ‘There is nothing that can destroy our solidarity’.”

Peniakoff doesn’t report what he told the Russian in reply at the time. Instead, he concludes his book with this rumination and threat. “‘The war was over’, I thought, ‘I might now well see to that’.” This was Peniakoff’s personal fantasy of continuing his war-fighting. But there was no role for him, or the 80 men his unit had grown to in Italy, to play as lightly armed demolition raiders against the Red Army.

It didn’t occur to him that in his three years of fighting in Arab North Africa, then Italy, he had betrayed, not only the Obaidi tribesmen of Libya, but also the Italian Communist and Socialist partisans who had fought with him, also on his post-war promises. Turning his back on them, Peniakoff was ready to go to war with Moscow until a brain tumour stopped him in 1951, the year after he had published his story.

But the Anglo-American idea of war with Russia is alive and kicking this week, as it’s the Ukrainian troops who are running away from the advance of the Russian Army.

The idea of Popski’s Private Army against Russia which Peniakoff was gung-ho to fight is now on the edge of nuclear attacks – first by Ukrainian artillery on the Zaporozhye nuclear power plant, and since that has failed to generate a radioactive explosion, drone attacks on Russian radar stations at Armavir and Orsk whose job it is to detect nuclear armed missile launches and trigger Russian nuclear retaliation.

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Post-attack pictures of the damage at the Armavir radar station in Krasnodar. Russian military assessment of the drone attack is in marked contrast to the hype of western reporting. "We may be talking about partial shrapnel damage to the high-voltage power lines of the transceiver modules. At the same time, the blocks of transceiver modules themselves (together with amplifiers, phase shifters and cooling circuits) could receive minimal damage, as indicated by the absence of traces of direct hits from drones into active antenna arrays. Considering the modular design of Voronezh-DM (and all stations of this type), we can expect a prompt restoration of the complex and its return to combat duty… The station serves as a means of monitoring ballistic missile launches at a distance of 6 thousand km and also detects high-altitude hypersonic aerodynamic means of aerospace attack. What kind of drone could be used to attack the radar? Initially, it was believed that for the strike on Voronezh-DM, the Main Intelligence Directorate simulated a complex low-altitude flight route for drones of the Lyuty or UJ-26 Beaver type, skirting the radar viewing sectors of the Russian Aerospace Forces anti-aircraft missile systems. However, later information appeared that British-Portuguese Tekever AR3 drones were used for the strike. Interestingly, this drone is designed using VTOL (vertical take-off) technology and could be deployed near the radar, probably several kilometres away. However, launch from the territory of Ukraine is not excluded. To build routes bypassing air defence systems, reconnaissance information from the US Air Force RQ-4 Global Hawk drone could be used. Let us recall that for several months now the focus of attention of the US Air Force RQ-4B data has been shifted specifically to the Krasnodar Territory, as can be seen from the flight route. What conclusion can be drawn? The strike on the Armavir station (and a likely attempt to hit another Voronezh-type radar 25 km from Orsk) may be part of a single operation to inflict painful media attacks. The use of British-Portuguese drones in this case may be the fundamental point since it is the British who are considered the ‘architects’ of many GUR [Ukrainian military intelligence] actions: attempts to land in Crimea and other campaigns in which the planned result was never achieved.”

A veteran US military observer is not sanguine about the rationality of the US and British officers directing Ukrainian operations. He warns that the British, and also the CIA, have an inordinate faith in special operations to turn the tide, and in their own cleverness to think them up. “What we’re seeing — with Israel, too,” according to this source, “is years of impunity resulting in an epic, murderous tantrum that’s having the opposite of its intended effect. It’s certainly not beyond either of them to play nuclear chicken. Most people would say that if you do that, you’re insane. But they think a special operation playing nuclear chicken with the Russians is clever, potentially effective.”

“And so I think there’s going to be a nuclear war. The people who run things in the West have made up their minds that if they can’t rule, there will be nothing to rule. I guess we must figure now whether British and Ukrainian madness will prevail over US cowardice.”

https://johnhelmer.net/the-popski-syndr ... fantasies/

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Ukrainian strikes on Russian early warning radar installations: a strategic blow or an irrelevancy?

In the past several days, Western mainstream media have reported on a Ukrainian drone attack on a Russian early warning radar installation in the south of the country that is said to have disabled the facility. And now in the past 24 hours, we hear that a second such installation also was struck, though it is unclear how severe the damage may have been.

The major point in these Western accounts is that the target had strategic value for Russia and that their blinding was putting Russian national security at risk. This would appear to come under the category of existential threats that President Putin has evoked when speaking of Russia’s latest nuclear doctrine that allows nuclear counter-attack in such circumstances.

It thus came as no surprise to me when several of my correspondents asked me what Russian state television has been saying about these attacks. My response was that they received little or no mention in the official news bulletins but were discussed very briefly on the widely watched Evening with Vladimir Solovyov talk show. The point made there was that the attacks on such radar units have no relevancy to the ongoing war in Ukraine which is being decided on the battlefield all along the 1200 km line of contact, and in particular in the Kharkov, Donetsk, Lugansk and Kherson regions, where the Russians are decimating the Ukrainian forces, pushing them back in disorderly retreat and capturing new villages each day.

To be specific, Vesti’s daily reported kills have risen from 1200 just a few weeks ago to 1700 or more today. And at the same time there appear to be larger numbers of Ukrainians surrendering each day, as those Ukrainian soldiers who have been recently mobilized by force on the streets of Kiev and other cities take the first opportunity to give up the fight.

To be sure, bitter fighting is going on in several cities of the Donetsk region where the Ukrainians have decided to make a do or die stand. But the indications are that Russians will soon be moving past these holdouts in the direction of Kramatorsk and Slavyansk, sealing Russian control over the Donbas.

Accordingly, my first thinking about the “strategic” nature of the Ukrainian drone attacks on Russia’s southernmost early warning radar installations was to point a finger at who is telling us this: it is the press that is hand-fed by Washington. If the loss were truly of a strategic nature, would not the Russians have shown their alarm by some dramatic counter attack?

Indeed, in his essay on the radar installation attacks, Paul Craig Roberts suggests that Washington directed them via its Ukrainian proxy to enrage Moscow and prompt a violent and disproportionate response that might justify NATO’s entering the war directly now, given that NATO forces on the ground are the last hope to prevent an impending Ukrainian defeat. See https://www.paulcraigroberts.org/2024/0 ... ng-war-61/

Of course, as I noted above, the Russians did not take the bait, which should lead one to think that the military value of the given radar installations has been greatly exaggerated by the Biden administration and its minions.

However, today an article by retired MIT professor Ted Postol backs up the dire characterization of the Ukrainian attacks on early warning radars that mainstream first put forward. See

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Postol was a long time scientific advisor to the Pentagon on missile defense systems and other high technology gear, and so his estimation of the dangers arising from blinding Russia’s ground based radar networks has to be taken seriously.

In what follows, I do not challenge Postol’s facts. After all, he is the military technology expert, and I am not. Instead, I am questioning his interpretation of the facts and the logic he employs.

For at least 25 years professor Postol has been telling us that when the Russians let the Soviet era satellite launch monitoring network lapse they lost the ability to see over the horizon and so greatly shortened the time at their disposal to decide upon the threat level of objects flying in their direction. What this would mean is launch on false data would be much more likely, with the result of heightened risk to the USA. At one point going back a couple of decades professor Postol even suggested that the USA should share technology with the Russians so they could improve their early warning systems and not set off nuclear Armageddon by mistake.

There are substantial amounts of that former argumentation in professor Postol’s latest essay, though the fact that Russia today has moved ahead of the USA in the modernity of its nuclear triad, though the fact that Russia is years ahead of the USA in developing and deploying in active service its devastating hypersonic missiles should lay to rest the idea that the Russians are incapable of setting up a satellite network of global launch detection if they thought it would improve their defense capability.

Postol and I are in agreement that the blacked out radar installation(s) would only have been useful in detecting launches from the Mediterranean or Indian oceans This is very different from detecting ICBMs coming from North America over the pole. Professor Postol does not take this very important distinction to its next logical point: that the only source of missile attacks on Russia from the south and southeast would be American bases and nuclear submarines in the Middle East. They might launch a few cruise or ballistic missiles, but that is not to be compared with hundreds of ICBMs with multiple warheads carrying out a decapitating first strike from silos in the continental United States. It is hard to imagine anyone in Washington risking a massive Russian revenge nuclear attack on their homeland by taking advantage of the supposed blinding of Russia’s early warning network in the south to send some nuclear armed missiles to the Russian heartland. Such suicidal madness is hardly possible even in these days when incompetents populate the highest positions in the State Department and in the National Security Council. That such are the people in power today is one point in Postol’s latest essay with which I concur entirely.

Finally, a colleague has sent me the following appreciation of the attacks on Russian early warning radar from a Russian military expert of The Military Summary channel. The issue is discussed in the first three minutes:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GfhwvwSzekc

The point here is that the intention of the planners of these strikes may have been to harm the defenses of Iran, not Russia, since the given installations would be most useful in detecting missile launches in the West and South directed against Iran. This assumes, of course, that there is close collaboration between Moscow and Teheran precisely for such common defense. In any case, the attack on the radars has nothing whatever to do with the war in Ukraine: the USA would have been using the Ukrainians as nominal attacking party to further their own regional aims that are unrelated to the fate of Kiev.

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Before closing this discussion of the latest hot issues surrounding Russia and the war, I am obliged to say a few words about the press conference which Vladimir Putin held at Tashkent airport on Monday at the conclusion of what appears to have been a very successful three day visit to Uzbekistan with a large government and business delegation. Meeting with representatives of the Russian media, he addressed directly the idea suggested by Jens Stoltenberg, by David Cameron and now by Emanuel Macron that Ukraine should be given free hands to do what it will with the long range attack missiles and other hardware being supplied to it by the NATO countries, meaning it should be allowed to strike deep into Russian Federation territory to destroy military bases there.

Putin directed attention to the utter falseness of this concept, saying that these weapons all require space based reconnaissance data for targeting that Ukraine does not possess but is receiving from French, German, US and other military personnel. In effect, the missiles are targeted by NATO officers who may also push the launch button, if this is not left to the Ukrainians, who may not even be aware where the missiles are heading.

By saying this, Putin has pulled away the fig leaf of NATO’s supposed non-co-belligerent status. This is an entirely new messaging from Moscow and it is just a hair’s breadth away from declaration of war.

At the same time, Putin spoke directly to the leaders of Estonia, Lithuania and Latvia, reminding them that they are really very small countries with very dense populations and that they should think twice before declaring, as the Prime Minister of Estonia did last week, that the task now is ‘to bring Russia to its knees.’ His remarks may be described as a direct threat to wipe the Baltics from the face of the earth.

Who now insists that Putin’s mildness and restraint give cause for misjudging his readiness to defend Russian sovereignty whatever the cost?

©Gilbert Doctorow, 2024

https://gilbertdoctorow.com/2024/05/29/ ... relevancy/

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PATRICK LAWRENCE: US Endgame in Ukraine — War Without End, Amen
May 28, 2024

What happens when a powerful nation cannot afford to lose a war it has already lost?

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Field of Mars at the Lychakiv Military Cemetery in Lviv, Ukraine, Dec. 2023. (President of Ukraine/Wikimedia Commons)

By Patrick Lawrence
Special to Consortium News


It is now two and a half years since Moscow sent two draft treaties, one to Washington, one to NATO in Brussels, as the proposed basis of talks toward a new security settlement — a renovation of relations between the trans–Atlantic alliance and the Russian Federation.

An urgently needed renovation, we must quickly add. And after that we must also quickly add the Biden regime’s rejection of Russia’s proposals as a “nonstarter” faster than you can say “deluded.”

Let us pause for a sec to bring to mind all those who have died in the war that erupted in Ukraine a year and a few months after Joe Biden refused, even mocked, Vladimir Putin’s honorable diplomatic demarche. All the maimed and displaced, all the towns and cities destroyed, all the farmland turned into moonscape.

And the all-but-complete peace accord, negotiated in Istanbul a few weeks into the war that the U.S. and Britain rushed to scuttle. And of course all the billions of dollars, somewhere north of $100 billion now, not spent on improving Americans’ lives but spent instead on arming a regime in Kiev that steals aid extravagantly while fielding an army with professed neo–Nazis.

It is useful to recall these things because they give context to a string of recent developments it’s important to understand, even if our corporate media discourage any such understanding.

If we keep recent history in mind, we will be able to see that the viscously irresponsible decisions of a couple of year ago, so wasteful of human life and common resources, are now repeated such that it is now certain the brutalities and waste will continue indefinitely even as their pointlessness is now way, way, way beyond denying.

The doorway opening on to this new sequence of events is the recent advance of the Russian military in Ukraine’s northeast. This new incursion now threatens Kharkiv, which is Ukraine’s second-largest city and lies a mere 25 miles from the Russian border.

Even the mainstream press, loathe to report the setbacks the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) have suffered, describes Russia’s northeast campaign, which began a few weeks ago, as a rout. The Kremlin says it has no interest in taking Kharkiv, and this so far appears to be the case.

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Kharkiv city. (Ekaterina Polischuk/Wikimedia Commons)

But the AFU’s rapid retreat bears a strong whiff of final defeat wafting in from not so far off in the distance. “Several Ukrainian combat brigades have not defected, or considered doing so,” Seymour Hersh, quoting his customary “I have been told” sources, reported in his newsletter last week, “but have made it known to their superiors that they will no longer participate in what would be a suicidal offensive against a better trained and better equipped Russian force.”

Brigades average 4,000 to 5,000 soldiers each and can run to 8,000 or even more. Hersh’s report suggests that a considerable number of Ukrainian troops, and maybe a very considerable number, are now effectively in mutiny against the AFU’s high command.

In evident response to Russia’s swift new incursion and the direction of the war altogether, the well-coordinated if not very artful American propaganda machine has begun preparing the public for a wider war that is to extend, as a matter of policy and military strategy, into Russian territory. This effort began with a New York Times interview with Volodymyr Zelensky, which was videoed and published in last Wednesday’s editions. A transcript of the interview is here.

This document is plainly intended to appeal to kale-consuming, Biden-supporting liberals who must be assured of the Ukrainian president’s just-like-us humanity and good judgment. He talked about his children and his dogs — there must be dogs in this sort of imagery — and how he reads fiction every night but is too tired to get very far.

But the core point, beyond the window dressing, was to insist that it is time to begin bombing Russian territory and that the Biden regime must reverse its prohibition of such operations.

A key passage:

“So my question is, what’s the problem? Why can’t we shoot them down? Is it defense? Yes. Is it an attack on Russia? No. Are you shooting down Russian planes and killing Russian pilots? No. So what’s the issue with involving NATO countries in the war? There is no such issue.

Shoot down what’s in the sky over Ukraine. And give us the weapons to use against Russian forces on the borders.”


Zelensky, a television actor we must not forget, has played this role on numerous occasions: Badger us for tanks, planes, long-range artillery, and missiles, the script written in Washington reads, and we will hesitate briefly before granting you your pressing needs as you defend democracy, the free world, and all those other “values” in the Cold War inventory.

Two days later, two, the Times reported exclusively that U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken, returning from “a sobering visit to Kyiv,” has of a sudden decided it is indeed time to broaden the war in the direction of a direct confrontation with Russia. The byline on this piece is worth noting: It belongs to David Sanger, who typically writes this kind of deep-inside piece because he is by all appearances so unwholesomely deep inside.

“There is now a vigorous debate inside the administration over relaxing the ban,” our David reports, “to allow the Ukrainians to hit missile and artillery launch sites just over the border in Russia—targets that Mr. Zelensky says have enabled Moscow’s recent territorial gains.”

See what I mean by artless? The one-two of this perception-management op has all the finesse of the old MAD magazine. I am beginning to take offense, honestly. If I am going to be subjected to incessant propaganda, I demand, I absolutely demand that it is sufficiently sophisticated to be at least entertaining.

In between the Zelensky interview and the Sanger report, the Russophobes in Congress wasted no time tucking into this operation. Michael McCaul, the Texas Republican who ranks with Tom Cotton among the prominent dummköpfe populating Capitol Hill, pounced partisanly last Wednesday.

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McCaul in Ukraine, February 2023. (U.S. Embassy Ukraine/Wikimedia Commons)

McCaul, who chairs (I can hardly believe this) the House Foreign Affairs Committee, stood before a map that showed — my best count — 50 or so targets in Russian territory. And there he went for a twofer, arguing in favor of removing restrictions on the deployment of U.S. weapons while turning the question into a boringly pointless attack on the Biden regime.

Have a listen:

“We have a really bad situation going on, as you know. This is a sanctuary zone they [Russians] have created…. However, your administration and Jake Sullivan [sic] have restricted the arms use so that Ukraine cannot defend itself and fire back at Russia. That’s why I mandated the attacks in the supplemental [the aid package Biden signed into law last month], the long-range, the short range, and the HIMARS that your administration is tying their hands arms behind their back.”

Never mind the incoherence. A sanctuary? The Russians have created a sanctuary on their own soil? What kind of language is this? What is running through McCaul’s odd mind, the Cambodian border in the spring of 1969, Operation Menu?

Let us all declare we feel unsafe as we realize what these people are talking about and what they are risking. Any allowance for expanded use of U.S.–made weapons against Russian targets, which will require American personnel on the ground in Ukraine, will unambiguously escalate the proxy war into a direct conflict between the U.S. and the Russian Federation.

Quagmire, anyone?

Reuters filed an impressive, equation-changing exclusive last week featuring unmistakably intentional leaks from the Kremlin signaling President Putin’s desire to stop the war in Ukraine and negotiate a ceasefire. Guy Faulconbridge and Andrw Osborn cited interviews with “five people who work with or have worked with Putin at a senior level in the political and business worlds.”

Time to sit up.

“Three of the sources, familiar with discussions in Putin’s entourage,” the two correspondents reported, “said the veteran Russian leader had expressed frustration to a small group of advisers about what he views as Western-backed attempts to stymie negotiations and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy’s decision to rule out talks.”

They then quoted one of their sources, “a senior Russian source who has worked with Putin and has knowledge of top-level conversations in the Kremlin,” as asserting, “‘Putin can fight for as long as it takes, but Putin is also ready for a ceasefire—to freeze the war.’”

While Putin has sent such signals on numerous occasions over the course of the past decade of war, this is big, in my view. For one thing, it strongly indicates what the new Kharkiv campaign is all about. Moscow does not want to take Kharkiv, the Faulconbridge and Osborn reporting suggests: It wants to enter talks from the position of strength all sides in all conflicts seek in the pre-negotiation phase.

Some other details confirm what distinguishes this set of signals from the Kremlin from others sent previously. From the Reuters report:

[“Three sources said Putin understood any dramatic new advances would require another nationwide mobilisation, which he didn’t want, with one source, who knows the Russian president, saying his popularity dipped after the first mobilisation in September 2022.

The national call up spooked part of the population in Russia, triggering hundreds of thousands of draft age men to leave the country. Polls showed Putin’s popularity falling by several points.”


Interesting. Another reason to listen to what the Kremlin wants to world to know just now.

I am not going to buy Reuters’ suggestion that Putin has a case of political nerves. He has just won a new six-year term as president. But the Russian leader has demonstrated numerously in the past that he is sensitive to popular sentiment, the sacrifices of soldiers absent from their communities and places of work, and the visuals of war — body bags at airports, rows of military graves.

As Faulconbridge and Osborn report, Putin continues to reject the Zelensky regime’s insistence that no talks can begin until Ukraine regains all territory it has surrendered since the war began in 2014, including Crimea. “Let them resume,” they quote Putin as saying Friday, “[but] not on the basis of what one side wants.”

Via his leaky confidants, who were almost certainly authorized, Putin proposes what amounts to an armistice. Both sides would stop shooting, and territorial dominion would remain as it is—not necessarily etched into the earth, but until both sides can negotiate on to another step toward a lasting settlement.

No, Kiev would not regain Crimea or the four republics that voted in September 2022 to rejoin Russia; and no, Russia would neither have demilitarized nor de–Nazified Ukraine, as it has many times stated as its aims.

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From left, Rishi Sunak, Biden; Giorgia Meloni, Zelensky NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg and NATO Deputy Secretary General Mircea Geoana in Vilnius on July 12, 2023. (NATO, Flickr, CC-BY-NC-ND 2.0)

There is a legal principle here that goes back to the Romans. Qui tenet teneat—“he who holds may go on holding,” roughly — is often a feature of Asian diplomacy, which is more accepting of fluidity and temporary uncertainties that Westerners are usually not prepared to accept. Chas Freeman, the noted diplomat, taught me this years ago via the complex disputes over maritime jurisdictions in the South China Sea.

Putin’s proposal, viewed in this context, seems to me the most promising thought out there at the moment, and — to be noted — a number of officials and commentators in the West have bruited the idea about in recent months.

“A frozen conflict, such as those in Kashmir, Korea and Cyprus,” John Whitbeck a noted international attorney, said in a privately circulated memo the other day, “while not ideal, would be far better than more war and very much in the interests of mankind.”

This brings us back to… to December 2021, actually. Now as then, neither Kiev nor Washington has any interest in promising thoughts.

Biden’s national security people have not even stirred to react to the Faulconbridge and Osborn report. You would have thought they would at least have trotted out “nonstarter,” their favorite Britishism.

The Zelensky regime immediately responded to the Faulconbridge and Osborn report with another attack, again not short of its usual ad hominem tint. “Putin currently has no desire to end his aggression against Ukraine,” Dmytro Kuleba, Kiev’s amateurish foreign minister, told Reuters. “Only the principled and united voice of the global majority can force him to choose peace over war.”

Putin. His aggression. No desire to end it. I simply cannot see how anyone can take this seriously as statecraft. It is performative posturing, nothing more.

As to the voice of the global majority Kuleba mentioned, wait for it. This is a reference to a conference Zelensky and his ministers have organized for two days in mid–June. The Swiss have agreed to host it at a resort owned by the Qatari government near Lake Lucerne, and the Swiss Foreign Ministry, buying into the Ukrainians’ pretensions, is calling it “a peace summit.”

A peace summit? Please tell me how this works. The Russians are not even invited. What it amounts to is a Ukrainian attempt to get the world to line up behind it as it continues to wage a war it has already lost. As a former Swiss official said to me over dinner Saturday evening, “It’s about money. Kiev needs money.”

There is talk here that Biden plans to attend, but my money says this is out. Zelensky said in mid–April he expects 80 to 100 heads of state, but I question this, too.

As of May 15, Le Monde reports, about 50 nations had responded to Bern’s invitation. Remember, 80 percent to 90 percent of the globe, measured by population or by counting sovereign nations, has remained resolutely nonaligned on the Ukraine question.

Swiss peace conferences, planted New York Times interviews, congressmen sounding foghorns as they cheer on an expanded war: I find all this extravagantly pitiful. Maybe Putin is serious about his proposed armistice, maybe there is less in it than it seems. But no one on the opposing side wants even to explore the idea of ending the war?

The net response to the new Russian advances toward Kharkiv and the Kremlin’s artful leaks last week is to launch a new phase in a proxy war the West has already lost — a phase that also seems to have little chance of success, but holds more danger than any truly responsible statesman would ever risk.

Dmitry Peskov, the Kremlin’s dapper spokesman, told Faulconbridge and Osborn the other day that Russia didn’t want “an eternal war,” a forever war in the American idiom. This is a good thing not to want.

Neither Biden nor Zelensky, on the other hand, wants this war to end: They cannot afford it for a variety of reasons. This is the reality. They are the main impediment to peace. They have painted the conflict as some kind of cosmic confrontation between good and evil, and in so doing they have also painted themselves into a corner.

But what happens when a powerful nation cannot lose a war it has already lost?

https://consortiumnews.com/2024/05/28/p ... -end-amen/

Dunno why Patrick is quoting Faulconbridge and Osborn who don't appear to know their ass from first base. The mobilization called up men who had previously served and had training, not conscripts. The 100s of thousands who fled is a gross exaggeration and many who did are returning to face no official retribution. And to top it off in the meantime 150K men have volunteered, patriotic yes but the pay is good too.

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Combined strike on Crimea
May 30, 2024
Rybar

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This night, the Ukrainian Armed Forces carried out a new attack on the Crimean peninsula after several days of break. In anticipation of the strike, Ukrainian unmanned boats began to be spotted near Crimea .

Around noon, Ka-29 and Mi-24 helicopters destroyed two drones west of Sevastopol . And in the evening, another BEC was discovered and shot down by the Mi-8 crew northwest of Cape Tarkhankut .

But the main events unfolded after midnight.

First, eight ATACMS operational-tactical missiles were fired from the Nikolaev region at Kerch . Units of the 31st division successfully shot down all targets.

However, due to the use of a cluster warhead, some debris fell in the area of ​​the Kerch port , causing damage to two ferries, but more damage was avoided.

At the same time, up to six BECs were identified near Chernomorskoye , and fire was opened on them, but two naval drones penetrated Uzkaya Bay . One BEC (alas, the video is already on the Internet) hit a boat at the pier, and the second was destroyed not far from another border boat, causing it to receive minor damage. At that time, a Ukrainian drone from the Odessa region was operating just north-west of Chernomorskoye . who monitored the situation on the peninsula.

In this case, it is necessary to pay attention to the enemy’s tactics: the BECs kept their distance from Crimea until the missile threat was introduced. At this command, all the Russian FSB border boats began to enter the bay, and the booms were briefly opened.

And at that moment, two drones entered the bay, taking advantage of the rise of the networks that covered the entrance to the base of the Black Sea Fleet and the Russian FSB border service.

The attacks were not only geographically separated: one in the east of Crimea, the other in the north-west, but they were carried out simultaneously for a reason. And the entrance to the bay was open, and there were fewer personnel due to the threat of a missile attack .

https://rybar.ru/kombinirovannyj-udar-po-krymu/

Google Translator

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NATO’s Escalation in Ukraine: A Recipe for Direct War on Russia
Posted by INTERNATIONALIST 360° on MAY 29, 2024
Gary Wilson

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Soldiers from U.S. Army Europe’s Charlie Company demonstrate tactics to Ukrainian Marines and National Guard soldiers.

Ukraine is preparing for French military instructors’ arrival, reported Bloomberg News on May 28.

This announcement resulted from a high-level phone call between Ukraine’s Commander in Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi, Defense Minister Rustem Umerov, and French Defense Minister Sebastien Lecornu.

“I’ve already signed the documents that will allow the first French instructors to visit our training centers soon and familiarize themselves with their infrastructure and staff,” Syrskyi said on Telegram.

Earlier this year, French President Emmanuel Macron stated that “nothing should be ruled out” when asked about sending NATO troops to Ukraine. Lithuanian President Gitanas Nauseda has repeatedly expressed readiness to send professional soldiers for training missions to Ukraine. In March, Czech President Petr Pavel said sending military trainers would be possible.

The New York Times reported earlier this month that NATO members are moving closer to sending instructors into Ukraine to train its troops.

Gen. Charles Q. Brown Jr., the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said that U.S./NATO military “trainers” will be sent to Ukraine, according to the Times. “We’ll get there eventually, over time.”

Mark Episkopos says in Responsible Statecraft: “Brown’s comments tacitly concede two realities that Western officials have been loath to acknowledge: the Ukrainian war effort is slowly crumbling and cannot be sustained without a steady escalation of Western involvement.

“Yet there is a third factor that should be of serious concern to U.S. and European leaders: sending NATO personnel into Ukraine … [will] embroil NATO states, including the U.S., in a shooting war with Russian forces.”

First trainers, then combat troops

Yes, sending so-called military trainers is, in fact, an aggressive escalation. Imperialist military wars can start with “military trainers.” During the First Indochina War (1946-1954), French military trainers in Vietnam began an escalation of the imperialist war on Vietnam, eventually leading to the deployment of French combat troops. This eventually led to U.S. involvement, first with trainers, then followed by tens of thousands of combat troops.

On May 14, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken, in an unannounced visit to Kiev, vowed Washington would take “tangible steps” to ensure Ukraine’s addition to the NATO military alliance, RFE/RL reported.

Of course, NATO is already deeply involved in Ukraine, supplying weapons and training to the Ukrainian military.

On May 20, a bipartisan group of U.S. lawmakers sent a letter to Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin urging him to authorize the use of U.S.-supplied long-range weapons to strike deep within Russian territory. The letter reflects Congress’ growing move to escalate U.S. military operations in Ukraine, including expansion beyond Ukraine’s borders into Russia.

The letter, authored by House Intelligence Committee Chairman Michael Turner and other members of Congress, requests authorization for the use of U.S. weapons against strategic targets inside Russia and calls on the Defense Department to provide training for more Ukrainian pilots on operating F-16 fighter jets.

2014 coup regime is no democracy

The Ukraine regime was imposed in February 2014 by a U.S.-backed coup that overthrew the elected government. The far-right regime represents Western imperialist interests, local oligarchs and neo-Nazis. The residents of Ukraine’s Donetsk and Lugansk regions did not recognize the new regime. In April 2014, in the Donbass mining region, the autonomous Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics (DPR and LPR) were declared, and the Minsk Accords laid out the process for their recognition.

The Kiev regime never implemented the Minsk Accords and began military operations against Donetsk and Luhansk. Bombing and air raids targeted the civilian population, killing at least 15,000. Kiev massed an occupation army in the region. In February 2022, the DPR and LPR asked Russia for aid. That’s when Russia began its Special Military Operation, sending troops into DPR and LPR to secure their territorial integrity.

The Kiev regime declared martial law in 2022. All elections have been canceled. Elections for the Ukrainian parliament, where all opposition parties have been removed, were canceled. Presidential elections were scheduled for March 2024 but were canceled. Volodymyr Zelensky said, “Now is not the time for elections.”

There is no popular support for Zelensky, the regime, or its war. The Ukrainian population is being wiped out. At the start of 2022, Ukraine’s population was estimated to be around 42 million. By mid-2023, estimates suggest the population in Kiev-controlled areas has declined to as low as 28 million. Millions of Ukrainians have fled the country, and the birth rate has plummeted to a historic low in the last two years, reaching levels unseen in the past 300 years.



Danny Haiphong

U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken recently lobbied for direct U.S. strikes on Russia, leading Russian President Vladimir Putin and the Kremlin to issue a huge warning to both Blinken and NATO that such a move would lead to the unthinkable. This video breaks down the beginning of Russia’s nuclear drills and how the world is headed for World War III if Blinken gets his way.



The New Atlas

– Ukrainian forces continue to be overextended by growing Russian pressure including in Kharkov, as well as Ukraine’s own strategy to defend undefendable positions and even counterattack Russian forces;

– Within the Western media, “theories of victory” are being proposed, collections of tired narratives long-since demonstrated as unrealistic; –

As long as the collective West fails to address fundamental weaknesses in its military industrial base, and the unsustainable nature of its foreign policy in the first place, attempts to defeat better prepared and organized adversaries will fail;

– Despite Ukrainian claims of success using ATACMS on Russian air defense systems, Russia is still able to produce more each year than Ukraine can damage or destroy, while Ukraine’s air defenses have been depleted and Western allies are unable to replace them.



Dialogue Works

Scott Ritter is a former Marine intelligence officer who served in the former Soviet Union, implementing arms control agreements, and on the staff of General Norman Schwartzkopf during the Gulf War, where he played a critical role in the hunt for Iraqi SCUD missiles. From 1991 until 1998, Mr. Ritter served as a Chief Inspector for the United Nations in Iraq, leading the search for Iraq’s proscribed weapons of mass destruction. Mr. Ritter was a vocal critic of the American decision to go to war with Iraq. His new book, Disarmament in the Time of Perestroika: Arms Control and the End of the Soviet Union, is his ninth.

https://libya360.wordpress.com/2024/05/ ... on-russia/
"There is great chaos under heaven; the situation is excellent."

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Re: Footnotes from the Ukrainian "Crisis"; New High-Points in Cynicism Part V

Post by blindpig » Fri May 31, 2024 11:55 am

Progressive climbing
POSTED BY @NSANZO ⋅ 05/31/2024

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“A shift to an unconventional form of warfare offers Ukraine the best option for undermining Russian resolve both on the front lines and at home,” two academics and an active-duty Special Forces officer write this week in Foreign Policy. of the United States. His approach is that Russia has managed to create a war of attrition in which it enjoys three important advantages: larger population, superior industrial capacity in the military sector and good defense in the Ukrainian territories and especially in Crimea. The bottom line is that, under current conditions, Ukraine will not be able to expel Russian troops from Ukrainian territory along its internationally recognized borders, something evident even to the staunchest defenders of kyiv. Only Ukraine, and with less and less conviction, defends the theory of complete victory, one that, yes, it seems to want to achieve through international pressure. Unable to destroy, as it hoped to have done in 2023, the Russian army on the battlefield, the Ukrainian Government hopes to achieve, through summits to promote its peace plan , a global consensus that, based on sanctions and isolation , manages to prevent Russia from continuing to fight, an approach as unrealistic as that of the blitzkrieg towards Crimea.

In this reality of a war of attrition, time is running in Moscow's favor while Ukraine bleeds at the front and wears out in the rear trying to forcibly recruit young people who, despite defending the idea of ​​continuing the war, do not They want to be the ones who have to defend the trenches of places like Volchansk, Chasov Yar or Dzerzhinsk. Breaking the current impasse is the objective of all parties, who are seeking the best option for a tremendously costly situation in terms of casualties, military and economic losses and destruction. In the Russian case, adapting to the possibility of a long war has been the strategy since it was evident that its initial attack was not going to achieve any of its objectives and the changes in government structures, mainly in the Ministry of Defense, show that the decisions are based on maintaining the war of attrition, without any real aspiration to achieve a more decisive victory or a possible retreat.

Despite recent information published by Reuters about Vladimir Putin's willingness to achieve a negotiated resolution and his openness to dialogue, neither the timing nor the Ukrainian or Western attitudes make more diplomacy possible than what Ukraine will carry out solely for its allies this month in Switzerland. The last two years show that Russia has been able to withstand the pressure of sanctions, which have not been joined, nor do it seem like they will be joined, by countries as important as China or India, which compensate for Moscow for the loss of direct access to Western markets. Nothing has changed on the diplomatic front, which will not really open as long as Ukraine continues to be useful to the West in its proxy war against Russia, an ideal adversary not for its strength or international position in the current global world, but for its ability to China's privileged ally, true opponent. And in the face of those who insist that diplomatic channels were about to result in an agreement that was sabotaged by the United States and the United Kingdom, we must remember that throughout much of the war, Ukraine has shown itself more belligerent than his allies. While even Victoria Nuland has left open the possibility of not recovering Crimea, kyiv insists on the withdrawal of Russian troops from all internationally recognized territory according to the 1991 borders as a prerequisite for any dialogue. Western and Ukrainian interests continue, at least for the moment, to agree that the true red line in this war is diplomacy.

In the absence of diplomacy and with war as the only way to resolve the conflict, the current moment offers two possibilities for action for Ukraine. Unlike the Russian approach, which seeks to maintain the current status quo , both seek to change the dynamic, an implicit admission that confirms that things are not going well for Ukraine. The first option, expressed by the aforementioned Foreign Policy article , suggests that Kiev must accept reality and find a way to achieve in the long term the objectives that it now presents as immediate demands and do so in such a way that it does not lose all its resources in it. “A reorganized Ukrainian army would be structured around small independent groups instead of large brigades,” he explains to delve into this reorganization of one of the largest armies in Europe to carry out a guerrilla war. “These irregular forces would be distributed throughout the country rather than concentrating in one or two central areas. With the support of Ukrainian and Western intelligence services, the groups would identify and attack vulnerable Russian targets before disappearing into the population and terrain - where Russian forces would find it difficult to attack them - to limit the loss of personnel and material. The groups would also help create a resistance force in disputed territories. “This type of asymmetric warfare is a proven strategy for a weaker opponent to gradually defeat a more powerful adversary,” the American authors add.

The goal would be to wear down Russia for an indeterminate, but possibly prolonged, time until a new equilibrium is achieved in which Russian superiority has been undermined by the attrition of irregular warfare. Then, only then, could Ukraine regain its territories. The approach, contrary to the current actions and the weapons that foreign allies are currently sending to war, is reminiscent of the first moments of the Russian invasion, when columnists like Max Boot or former politicians like Hillary Clinton advocated a guerrilla war following the example of Afghanistan. It is also no coincidence that Foreign Policy 's description perfectly describes the actions of the resistance forces in the disputed territories who, like the soldiers linked to Gulbuddin Hekmatyar, had terrorism as their preferred method in their guerrilla war . The methods used by the mujahideen - among whom was, for example, the patriarch of the Haqqani network, still considered terrorist today - against the Soviet Union was never a problem for the West, ready, as now, to cross any red line in its fight against Moscow, the article also does not seem to have anything to object to the Taliban's fight against the troops of NATO countries. “As the United States saw fighting asymmetric forces in Afghanistan and Vietnam, this approach is effective and demoralizing,” he says, although he laments that “it is also slow. Both conflicts lasted almost twenty years.”

Guerrilla warfare is already part of Ukrainian action, mainly carried out by the extreme right groups that make up the bulk of the troops of Kirilo Budanov's GUR. It is his actions that this last week have raised the tension between Russia and Ukraine one more step with the attacks on early detection radars, part of the Russian anti-intercontinental missile shield. Gone are the times when Ukraine attacked refineries as a method of pressure in order to get its partners to more quickly deliver weapons that would reach the country without restrictions on use against Russian military positions. The attacks are already directed against the defense of Russian nuclear infrastructure, something capable of activating Moscow's nuclear doctrine, bringing the conflict one step closer to the point of no return at the continental level.

However, the escalation does not come only from Ukraine, but is common to the West, whose leaders are looking for a way to modify the current situation, which is unfavorable for their subsidiary army. Faced with the possibility of a change in strategy, the Western approach is to double the bet, with even greater military assistance, now with the possibility of definitively lifting the vetoes that prevent kyiv from using long-range weapons against Russian territory. “They have the right to neutralize military bases from which missiles are launched and other installations from which Ukraine is attacked,” Macron recently stated, showing a map of Russian military installations. The proposal already had the approval of the United Kingdom, the first country to affirm that its missiles can be used throughout the territory of the Russian Federation, and has achieved rapid accessions from the Baltic countries, Poland, which has not ruled out sending troops, Denmark, which has given permission to use the F16s that it will send in the future over Russian skies, and even Olaf Scholz. Although more ambiguously, and even without sending Taurus missiles, the German chancellor has also appealed to Ukraine's right to defend itself.

The United States, until now less belligerent than its European allies, has yet to make an official statement, although the decision seems only a matter of time. An article published by The Washington Post , for example, announces that Biden is considering two measures to try to paralyze the Russian advance. One of the measures would be to sanction China for its alleged military support for Moscow, an option that the columnist seems to see as more dangerous than the second, allowing Ukraine to attack targets in Russia. “We could be approaching another turning point in Ukraine. As China leans more toward its partnership with a newly dominant Russia, Biden is weighing whether to deepen its alliance with kyiv. This would carry new risks, but it would make sense if it could bolster a faltering Ukraine and rebalance the negotiating table, which is where this war must ultimately be resolved,” concludes David Ignatius. For the moment, according to Politico, Biden has agreed to allow Kiev to use American weapons against Russia only to defend Kharkiv.

The risk posed by the use of Western weapons against Russia on Russian territory is evident and is possibly the reason why this taboo has been slow to be eliminated. The desire to use progressive escalation to prevent a direct confrontation between Russia and the West is fading as it becomes clear that nothing so far has been enough to achieve Ukraine's objectives. The escalation does not seek to win the war, but rather to recover the lost initiative against Russian troops that kyiv had considered defeated in 2022. The situation has changed and the only option for Ukraine is greater participation by its Western allies, willing to follow the current despite the obvious danger that the use of Western weaponry, perhaps even handled by Western soldiers - at least in the case of missiles - in offensives planned and financed by European and North American countries will be understood as a direct attack by the countries of NATO against the Russian Federation.

Despite this, the tactic of progressive escalation will endure, at least judging by the words of the French president. “We must not allow Ukraine to hit other targets in Russia, civilian targets or other military targets,” Macron said. His permission to attack Russia is limited, for the moment, to certain agreed-upon positions. However, the dynamics of this war suggest that, as soon as Western permission for Ukraine to attack certain Russian bases is confirmed, the process to eliminate restrictions against other military objectives will begin. And taking into account that Ukraine has had no qualms about attacking the center of Belgorod and that the West has accepted the Israeli action against the civilian population of Gaza, no limit seems definitive.

https://slavyangrad.es/2024/05/31/escalada-progresiva/

Google Translator

******

From Cassad's Telegram account:

Colonelcassad
📝 Summary of the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation (as of May 30, 2024)

- Units of the North group of troops continue to advance into the depths of the enemy’s defense. The manpower and equipment of the 57th motorized infantry, 92nd assault brigades of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and the 112th air defense brigade were defeated in the areas of the settlements Tikhoe, Konstantinovka, Granov, Kharkov region.

Two counterattacks of enemy assault groups were repelled in the areas of the settlements of Glubokoe and Staritsa, Kharkov region.

The losses of the Ukrainian Armed Forces amounted to up to 225 military personnel, a tank, two armored combat vehicles, two cars, two 152-mm D-20 howitzers and three 122-mm D-30 howitzers.

— Units of the “West” group of troops occupied more advantageous positions and defeated the formations of the 43rd mechanized brigade of the Ukrainian Armed Forces and the 112th military defense brigade in the areas of the settlements of Stelmakhovka, Lugansk People’s Republic and Zagoruykovka, Kharkov region.

During the counter-battery fight, two 155-mm M198 howitzers made in the USA, a 152-mm D-20 howitzer, a 152-mm Msta-B howitzer and a 122-mm Gvozdika self-propelled artillery mount were hit.

— Units of the “Southern” group of forces improved the situation along the front line, and also defeated the manpower and equipment of the 72nd mechanized brigade of the Ukrainian Armed Forces and the 67th terrestrial defense brigade in the areas of the settlements of Konstantinovka and New Donetsk People’s Republic.

During the day, the enemy lost more than 305 military personnel, a tank, two cars, a Polish-made 155-mm Krab self-propelled artillery mount, a 152-mm D-20 howitzer, a British-made 105-mm L-119 howitzer and an electronic warfare station. During the day, four field ammunition depots of the Ukrainian Armed Forces were destroyed in this direction.

— Units of the “Center” group of troops improved the tactical situation and defeated the formations of the 68th Jaeger and 24th Mechanized Brigades of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the areas of the settlements of Semenovka and Novgorodskoye of the Donetsk People’s Republic.

They repelled six counterattacks by assault groups of the 47th and 110th mechanized brigades of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the areas of the settlements of Ocheretino and Novopokrovskoye of the Donetsk People's Republic.

Enemy losses amounted to up to 335 military personnel, a tank, three armored combat vehicles, including a US-made Bradley infantry fighting vehicle and three vehicles.

In addition, during the counter-battery fight, the following were hit: a 155-mm self-propelled artillery mount "Paladin" made in the USA, a 155-mm howitzer M777 made in the USA, a 152-mm self-propelled artillery mount "Acacia", a 152-mm howitzer D-20, a 122-mm self-propelled artillery mount "Gvozdika", two 122-mm howitzers D-30, 122-mm combat vehicle MLRS "Grad" and 100-mm anti-tank gun MT-12 "Rapira".

— Units of the Vostok group of troopsoccupied more advantageous positions, defeated the manpower and equipment of the 58th motorized infantry brigade of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the area of ​​the village of Urozhaynoye, Donetsk People's Republic, and also repelled an attack by units of the 72nd mechanized brigade of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the area of ​​the village of Vladimirovka, Donetsk People's Republic.

The Ukrainian Armed Forces lost up to 145 military personnel, five vehicles, two Polish-made 155-mm Krab self-propelled artillery mounts, a 152-mm Msta-B howitzer and a 122-mm Grad MLRS combat vehicle.

Units of the Dnepr group of troops defeated the manpower and equipment of the 23rd brigade of the National Guard in the area of ​​​​the village of Maryevka, Dnepropetrovsk region.

The losses of the Ukrainian Armed Forces per day amounted to up to 65 military personnel, four vehicles, a Polish-made 155-mm Krab self-propelled artillery mount, a 152-mm D-20 howitzer and a 122-mm D-30 howitzer.

— The forces of the Black Sea Fleet destroyed four Ukrainian unmanned boats in the northwestern part of the Black Sea.

— Air defense systems shot down a Su-27 aircraft of the Ukrainian Air Force.

During the day, the following were destroyed: 24 unmanned aerial vehicles, eight ATACMS operational-tactical missiles made in the USA and a HARM anti-radar missile made in the USA.

https://t.me/s/boris_rozhin

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SITREP 5/29/24: NATO Ramps Up Figleaf of Cross-Border Strikes

SIMPLICIUS
MAY 30, 2024
There’s no one big thematic development to cover today so we’ll just keep abreast of some side developments in preparation for the larger storms to come—so this will be a scattershot assemblage of interesting updates.

I’ll start with what is the most interesting news to me: Ukraine’s defense minister Umerov has stated in a new Reuters interview that Russia plans to insert an additional massive 200-300k troops into Ukraine.

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This is obviously huge, if true. The 500k figure is roughly what we already know as Russia’s contingent currently involved in the SMO, but the addition of another 200-300k—the equivalent of multiple field armies—is a far greater force than most imagined Russia would utilize in the next wave.

Umerov doesn’t specify if this is to be the land force used in the new northern campaign, but if that’s the case, then one can’t help but imagine Russia seeks to put an end to the war once and for all.

Recall that we’ve heard figures like 20-30k being used for Russia’s northern Kharkov contingent, counting reserves which have not been used yet, but some reports claimed this figure can quickly swell to 50-80k.

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It’s possible that Russia could eventually jack up the Kharkov contingent to 100k+ then slowly inject another 100k+ into Sumy, with potentially another 100k in Chernigov or elsewhere.

In light of this, rumors also continue about the mysterious buildup in Belarus, with new claims that the helicopter contingent Russia has added to Baranovichi airfield near Minsk has grown and that helicopters are spotted flying around.

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AFU reports Russian aviation activity over Belarus more and more

But where is this new potential 200-300k being taken from? Those who’ve been reading here for a while know I’ve tracked Shoigu’s newly raised army of nearly 500k men throughout 2023, and we’ve often discussed whether they would be utilized in real combat operations or kept as a reserve deterrent force against NATO. I leaned in the direction of it being a reserve force, but I think both are right in that Russia has continued recruiting men throughout 2024 as well, which means by now they likely have even far more than that original 500k. Thus, taking even 200-300k of them for combat operations can leave hundreds of thousands in reserve, which will still accumulate toward the 500k mark again by this year.

It’s hard to know how much of it is exaggeration, but Ukrainian reports have recently claimed that Russian forces outnumber them 8:1 or even 10:1 in some areas of the eastern front. Ukraine is not keeping up with Russian recruitment whatsoever, as numbers for the new ‘mobilization’ continue to look dire. Even police from cities like Kharkov have reportedly been thinned out and sent to the front:

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This leaves the Russian Krasnopol as king of the battlefield, which continues not only performing daily, but whose use has vastly increased. Just in the past few days alone we’ve seen footage of Abrams, M109s, and other high profile Western systems all taken out with the Krasnopol.

One of the reasons the Krasnopol has gained an even greater edge is that the bottleneck has always been the laser illuminator, most of which were bulky legacy Soviet Malakhit ground kits. The Orlan-30 also performs the function but was not as widespread. Now, however, Russia has rolled out increasing numbers of systems, like a new Granat-4 UAV, which also have laser designators, which greatly expands the Krasnopol’s usage all over the front:

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Unlike the Excalibur which uses only jammable GPS, the Krasnopol’s main guidance is with laser, which cannot really be jammed—though it can have certain issues with heavy cloud cover and things like that.

Now the West is increasingly worried about Russia’s unparalleled industrial achievements.

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https://archive.ph/2TObD

The new WSJ article above claims Russia’s new drone factory in Tatarstan will shortly pump out 6,000 Shaheds per year, which is 500 a month, or 17 a day:

plan is for the Alabuga facility to churn out 6,000 Shahed attack drones a year, in addition to surveillance drones, according to a contract between the plant’s Russian managers and their Iranian partners leaked by the Prana Network and that was independently corroborated by two advisers to the British government. At the end of April, the factory was ahead of its production schedule, having already supplied 4,500 of the promised Shaheds, according to the International Institute for Strategic Studies, a London-based defense-focused think tank.

Meanwhile, in an attempt to keep up, NYTimes reports the U.S. is finalizing the opening of its first new arms production plant since the start of the SMO, the long-awaited Mesquite, Texas General Dynamics artillery ammunition plant:

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https://archive.ph/Cg6re

Here, in the Pentagon’s first new major arms plant built since Russia invaded Ukraine, Turkish workers in orange hard hats are busy unpacking wood crates stenciled with the name Repkon, a defense company based in Istanbul, and assembling computer-controlled robots and lathes.

The factory will soon turn out about 30,000 steel shells every month for the 155-millimeter howitzers that have become crucial to Kyiv’s war effort.


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Firstly, it’s interesting it mentions Turkish workers unpacking Turkish robotics and lathes for the plant: weren’t they making fun of Russia for utilizing Austrian and Japanese robotics? Why the double standard?

They claim the new plant will do 30k shells a month—but that’s after it reaches full capacity, which apparently may not be for a long time.

Quoted in the article, Michael Kofman remains dubious:

“I would say those late-2025 output targets will arrive late in this war, and it is likely that Russian artillery output will still be higher than the U.S. and Europe combined at that point.”

“Let’s say a year and a half from now both the U.S. and Europe are making, or buying, over a million shells each,” he added. “That’s still probably less than Russia is going to produce this year.”


But as usual, the boy-wonder analyst remains behind the curve. If the war is still ongoing by the end of 2025, the shell count will be the least of Ukraine’s worries. By then, the main bottleneck will be the artillery systems themselves. Not only has Russia recently been massively attriting Ukrainian artillery guns, but the West itself no longer produces the vast majority of them. M777s are no longer made, the Caesar—as I reported recently—takes nearly a year to construct a single piece. By 2025, Ukraine will be left with nothing but short ranged WWII guns while Russia is mass-producing 2S35 Koalitsiyas and 2S19M2 variants of the Msta-s.

Another vindication of my reporting on this specific tack comes from Zelensky himself yesterday. Recall I was the only one who called NATO’s bluff about having ‘better’ and ‘longer range’ artillery systems. I said repeatedly that the main standard NATO 155mm round that Ukraine uses, as fired from the M777 and other guns, has an objectively shorter range than the standard 152mm round Russia fires from its mainstay systems.

Well, now Zelensky admits they have “no long range 155mm” rounds at all: (Video at link.)

So much for that NATO artillery superiority.



Zelensky mentions the now ongoing narrative about striking over the Russian border, so it’s a good time to segue into that to explain something important:

As we know, the entire West has latched onto this most ‘pressing’ issue of striking Russian territory. But I’m here to tell you: the entire thing is a giant mirage, a facade, a red herring.

First of all: Ukraine has obviously already been striking Russian territory unabatingly with a variety of weapons like the AGM-88 Harms in Belgorod, etc. Secondly, there is no real particularly exceptional damage it can do with such strikes because most Russian supply lines are along the eastern front, which is by far the largest current front—not in the north where Zelensky is currently focusing. The Kharkov operation is just a minor diversionary one for now. But the majority of the eastern rear lines, C2/3 nodes, etc., are far out of range of any possible weapon Ukraine has, including ATACMS.

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Thus, the entire thing is a sham, a totally artificial narrative created under the false guise of needing to hit Russian rear lines. In reality, the actual truth entirely revolves around needing to escalate the conflict to save the AFU, which is collapsing. It has nothing to do with hitting Russian supply lines which are way out of reach anyway, and everything to do with the escalation creep of triggering Russia’s red lines and slowly wedging NATO into the conflict.

The real hopes of this recent highly coordinated push can be broken down to two things:

1. To continue increasing pressure on Russia, to make Putin feel “cornered” and hopefully create political instabilities—which obviously has no chance of working.

2. To precondition the more sheepish and reluctant of the NATO/Western “allies” into escalating by ‘leading the way’ in showing Russia’s lines can be pushed more and more, which will allow political pressure to be applied to the most cautious EU/NATO leaders in coercing them into increasing their own involvement in the Ukrainian conflict.

<snip>

A number of mercenaries continue perishing on the front in Ukraine:

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⚡️🇫🇷🇺🇦☠️FRENCH SOLDIER KILLED IN UKRAINE - UNVERIFIED: Pics above reportedly show corpse of French Foreign Legion trooper, dead after making mistake of trying to take on Russian soldiers.

Soldier allegedly member of France’s 2nd Foreign Parachute Regiment - earlier, former U.S. Deputy Defense Undersecretary claimed Foreign Legion troops already in Ukraine on Napoleon wannabe Macron’s orders.


And now a Norwegian soldier seen after a Russian assault on Ukrainian trenches:

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Telegraph provocatively titled a new article “Ukraine knows it is finished” but quickly changed it 3 times:

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Lastly,

A little interesting update regarding Russia’s usage of the new UMPB glide bombs:

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Factory markings indicate that Russia has averaged production of at least 12 UMPB glide bombs per day over the past two months.

This gives an annualized production volume of at least ~4,400 rounds, which is likely to rise as Russia continues to scale capacity.


(Much more at link.)

https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/sit ... up-figleaf

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How I spent summer
May 30, 17:58

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How I spent summer...

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https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/9178333.html

Exchange of prisoners of war. 05/31/2024
May 31, 12:53 p.m

After a long break, another exchange of prisoners of war took place.
We exchanged 75 for 75. The exchange took place through the mediation of the Emirates.
There was also an exchange of dead - the enemy returned 45 of our dead soldiers and received 212 dead in exchange.

We are waiting for ours this evening at Chkalovsky.

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/9179476.html

Belousov on the progress of the SVO
May 31, 11:44 am

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From Belousov's statements.

1. Since the beginning of 2024, Russian troops have liberated 880 square kilometers of territory.
2. During May 2024, 28 settlements were liberated.
3. The total losses of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in May 2024 amounted to 35,000 people.
4. Material losses of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in May - 2,700 weapons, of which 290 were tanks and armored fighting vehicles.
5. Advancement in the Kharkov region amounted to 8-9 kilometers in depth.
6. All goals of the SBO will be achieved.

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/9179307.html

Google Translator

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Putin Expects NATO, And Possibly Poland In Particular, To Escalate The Proxy War In Ukraine

ANDREW KORYBKO
MAY 30, 2024

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The latest military-strategic dynamics suggest that a conventional NATO intervention is seriously being considered.

President Putin shared a lot of insight about the NATO-Russian proxy war in Ukraine during the press conference that he held during his latest trip to Uzbekistan. The first point of relevance that he made is that Zelensky is no longer regarded by Russia as Ukraine’s legitimate leader after his term expired. According to President Putin’s “tentative estimate” of this legal question, Rada Speaker Stefanchuk should now be seen as Zelensky’s legal successor.

The Russian leader also speculated that the only reason why the incumbent remains in power is for him to carry out scandalous moves like possibly lowing the draft age to 23 and even 18 years. In his words, “I believe that after this and other unpopular decisions are made, those who are acting today as representatives of executive government would be replaced with people who would not be responsible for the unpopular decisions made. These representatives will be simply replaced in a snap.”

Moving along, in response to a question about NATO chief Stoltenberg’s suggestion for members to let Ukraine use their arms to hit targets inside of Russia like the US just tacitly approved of Kiev doing, he reminded everyone that long-range precision strikes require space reconnaissance data. Since Ukraine lacks these capabilities, such strikes can only be carried out with NATO support, including through instructors inside Ukraine masquerading as mercenaries for plausible deniability purposes.

President Putin advised the West to think twice about this and then addressed Russia’s fresh push into Ukraine’s Kharkov Region, which he confirmed was in response to the shelling of Belgorod and aimed at carving out a “security area” exactly as he earlier warned he’d order if those attacks didn’t stop. On the topic of Belgorod, he lamented that the Western media doesn’t report on Ukraine’s strikes there, and hinted that his envisaged “security area” could expand to stop longer-range attacks if need be.

He was later asked about Ukraine inviting French “instructors”, to which he responded by saying that his forces regularly “hear English, French, or Polish on the radio” when listening in their opponents, thus confirming that their mercenaries have long been deployed there. Of those three, President Putin believes that the Polish ones are the least likely to leave, which is an allusion to Russian officials’ prior claims that it plans to annex Western Ukraine or at least incorporate it into a sphere of influence.

As for how he sees everything ending, he reaffirmed his commitment to peace talks and reminded everyone that it’s Ukraine that unilaterally froze this process, not Russia. Mid-June’s upcoming “peace talks” in Switzerland are only designed to “create a semblance of global support” for the West’s unilateral demands of Russia aimed at inflicting a strategic defeat upon it. Suffice to say, President Putin promised that this won’t succeed, and he concluded by saying that it’ll only be more painful for Ukraine.

Reflecting on his remarks, the Russian leader signaled that he’s sincerely interested in peace but is also preparing for an escalation in the conflict since NATO’s latest moves suggest that it’s still disinterested in compromising. The US is using Zelensky as its figurehead for implementing unpopular decisions aimed at indefinitely perpetuating this doomed conflict, after which it’ll likely replace him with someone else once public opinion demands it.

Even in that scenario, however, it’s unclear whether another Ukrainian regime change would precede the recommencement of genuine peace talks that ensure Russia’s national security interests. President Putin’s words about Poland came amidst it expressing support for using Western arms to strike targets inside of Russia, countenancing shooting down missiles over Western Ukraine, and repeating its position that a conventional intervention in that neighboring country can’t be ruled out.

From the looks of it, Poland is indeed preparing to conventionally intervene in Ukraine if Russia achieves a military breakthrough, which could spike the risks of World War III by miscalculation due to the US’ dangerous game of nuclear chicken that it’s playing as explained here. In sum, the NATO-Russian security dilemma is spiraling out of control, and Russia might use tactical nukes in self-defense to stop any large-scale NATO invasion force that threateningly crosses the Dnieper towards its newly unified regions.

Therein lies the importance of President Putin hinting that his country might expand its “security zone” to defend against Ukraine’s use of long-range precise strike systems against targets within its pre-2014 territory. He wants NATO to know the territorial extent to which Russian forces might go in the event that the front lines collapse, which is essentially dependent on them and their decision to allow it to use such Western arms with the bloc’s space reconnaissance support.

The message being sent is that Russia has no interest in going beyond those geographical limits that NATO itself is responsible for setting through its abovementioned decision, which is meant to prevent the bloc from overreacting if their opponents achieve a military breakthrough. A Polish- and/or French-led conventional intervention would already be dangerous enough, but that invasion force’s potential crossing of the Dnieper could trigger a tactical nuclear response from Russia in self-defense.

The latest military-strategic dynamics suggest that a conventional NATO intervention is seriously being considered, even if it’s only a partial one that remains west of the Dnieper. The signals coming from NATO as a whole and Poland in particular show that they want an escalation in order to continue fighting Russia to the last Ukrainian, but President Putin just countersignaled that his country is prepared for all eventualities. It’s therefore up to the West whether or not everything spirals into World War III.

https://korybko.substack.com/p/putin-ex ... bly-poland

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WHY RUSSIA REQUIRES THAT THE WEST REQUEST UKRAINE PEACE TALKS
by GORDONHAHN
May 28, 2024

Russian President Vladimir Putin has numerous times now expressed Moscow’s readiness to engage in peace talks without ceasefire. So have other Russian officials. But there is no evidence that Moscow has pursued a back channel to begin talks, and it is highly unlikely that it has done or will do so.

Although in foreign diplomacy any public expression of willingness to talk is taken less seriously by others than is private communication of the same, the existence of the former and absence of the latter do not indicate that the public expressions of unwillingness to talk on Russia’s part are empty propaganda or misdirection. In reality, Moscow is ready for talks, but awaits from the West — Washington and or Brussels — a private or precise public request to begin talks.

There are at least two reasons for this. First, Moscow considers the war to be of the West’s making; one that the US and NATO forced on Russia by virtue of: NATO expansion (1997-present), the Maidan putsch (20 February 2014), the Maidan regime’s terrorist campaign against anti-Maidan protestors in Odessa and elsewhere, the Maidan regime’s ’anti-terrorist operation’ against Donbas’ (April 2014), the failure of Moscow’s ‘partners’ (the West and Maidan Kiev) to carry out the Minsk agreements (2015-present), and the NATOization of Ukraine and its military and intelligence services (2014-present). Therefore, the onus and blame for the war lies on the West and Ukraine. One needs only to read the 2008 memorandum sent to Washington by the then US ambassador to Moscow and today’s CIA Director William Burns, warning that NATO membership for Ukraine was a red line not just for Putin but for the entire Russian elite and would force Moscow to start a war it did not want (https://wikileaks.org/plusd/cables/08MOSCOW265_a.html).

Burns could have included among Russia’s anti-NATO elements not just Putin and the elite but the overwhelming majority of the Russian people, whose historically traditional strategic culture’s security vigilance norm orients Russians to be suspicious of Western interference and on guard against Western military encroachment and invasion and, given the history of Russo-Western relations, understandably so [Gordon M. Hahn, Russia’s Western Dilemma: Security Vigilance and Relations with the West from Ivan III to Putin (McFarland Books, 2021)]. As Putin noted in his Tucker Carlson interview, the West’s responsibility for the war requires that the West ‘correct its mistake’ and seek peace over NATO expansion and global hegemony. To this, must be added the other aspect of Russia’s “Western dilemma”— Russia’s historical attraction to that very same West that has repeatedly undermined its security. This desire be part of the West has made Western transgressions against Russia all the more perturbing and complicated the other factor requiring Western recognition of its mistakes—honor.

Andrei Tsygankov calls honor or sense of honor—a felt need to preserve one’s dignity and follow through on one’s declared commitments to a relevant social community. Although Tsygankov has underscored the often overlooked importance of honour in international relations, he ascribes a particularly strong sense of honor for Russia in the conduct of its foreign affairs. He cites Donald Kagan: “As a student of conflict acknowledges, pursuing and satisfying honor may be more difficult than than achieving material gains, and ‘the reader may be surprised by how small a role…considerations of practical utility and material gain, and even ambition for power itself, play in bringing on wars, and how often some aspect of honor is decisive.” Specifically, “(t)he world’s institutional arrangements, as well as alliances and power conquests, need to be understood in terms of their members’ social commitments.” Under Tsygankov’s constructivist approach, honor seemingly stands above a slew of attitudes, ideas, norms, and values shaping states’ perceptions of their national and security interests and comes in two forms: inner and outer honor. Inner honor relates to assessments relating to notions of ‘integrity,’ veracity,’ and ‘character’ of one’s obligations to a moral community of which one is a part. “Over time, through service to the community, inner honor also gains qualities of pride and dignity.” Outer honor is tied to assessment by others, defining one’s ‘reputation’ or good name’ and “underlies great power competition and imperial rivalry.” “If one’s reputation is besmirched, the pursuit of outer honor may lead its aspirants to competitive and even mutually destructive behaviour.” “In sum, honor requires trueness to one’s word when given on one’s honor; readiness to defend one’s home, and the right of oneself and one’s group, and to avenge violations [Andrei P. Tsygankov, Russia and the West from Alexander I to Putin: Honor in in International Relations (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2012), pp. 13-14]. What could be more insulting of national dignity, so destructive of Russia’s reputation, or more provocative of Moscow’s actions and felt need to demonstrate to its people the ability to avenge violations of its security committed by Russia’s main historical threat than the West’s three decades of ignoring, rejecting, and even denigrating Russia’s vital national security interest in the preservation of Ukraine as a more or less neutral buffer between its own territory and world history’s potentially most powerful military bloc—NATO?

Thus, in order to preserve its sense of honor Russia required conducting its ‘special military operation’ in Ukraine and demands that the West recognise Russia’s national security interests as perceived by Russians and cease NATO’s eastward expansion to Ukraine, first of all, and elsewhere along Russia’s borders. Russia’s war in Ukraine is an exercise in not just security protection but honor preservation, both defined by Russian perceptions of its history of relations with the West as one of repeated acts of subversive influence, political interference, military-political intervention, and military invasion. Final preservation of Russian honor requires the appearance of victory before its people (inner honor) and acknowledgement by the West and even the world of Washington’s responsibility if not NATO’s full defeat in the Russo-NATO conflict over NATO membership in Ukraine (outer honor). These, in turn, require that the West come hat-in-hand and head bowed to the Kremlin, if you will, in repentance for its ambition and arrogance vis-a-vis Russia, and this requires Washington and Brussels requesting peace talks as Russia’s threat to what remains of Ukrainian territory mounts in the present ‘summer’ offensive.

Russia requires restoration of its honor against the humiliation of NATO expansion, Maidan, NATOization of Ukrane. But the West also requires submission to its power — itself now an item of honor. The end of NATO’s march east and Western hegemony are points of economic and political interest, power anbition, and honor. Thus, both sides continue to escalate the crisis. It is worth repeating Tsygankov’s summary point noted above: we may all become quite impressed by “how small a role…considerations of practical utility and material gain, and even ambition for power itself, play in bringing on wars, and how often some aspect of honor is decisive. In the making of the more full-scale, direct NATO-Russia Ukrainian War seemingly to come, honor may indeed prove to be a decisive as Russian security-protection and Western power expansion.

A third reason is that, contrary to Western politicians’ and propagandists’ claims, Russia is winning the war and is likely to be doing so ever more decisively throughout this year. As the front and likely the Ukrainian army and perhaps state collapse over the next year or so, the West will have little choice: either request peace talks and accept a neutral, rump Ukraine or join the war full-scale with NATO troops. In the latter event, the West will exchange security for preservation of its honor. Russia will have done the same but unwittingly and unwillingly. The security dilemma will become the end of security for all.

https://gordonhahn.com/2024/05/28/why-r ... ace-talks/

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Geniuses Macron and Scholz make the argument for Russia to strike NATO members

Finian Cunningham

May 30, 2024

Macron has joined the chorus of those who are calling for Ukraine to be permitted to use long-range weapons to strike deep into Russian territory.

French genius Emmanuel Macron keeps pushing the button for World War Three, on this occasion while in Berlin this week to cajole Germany into self-destruct mode.

Macron has joined the chorus of other NATO figures who are calling for Ukraine to be permitted to use long-range weapons to strike deep into Russian territory.

It looks like Macron succeeded in seducing the Germans with his maniacal mission. Following their meeting, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz has flipped from objecting to such strikes to now approving them.

Scholz said at their joint press conference: “Ukraine has every possibility to do this, under international law. It must be said clearly, if Ukraine is attacked, it can defend itself.”

Only last week, the German “leader” (a term advisably used with artistic license) was opposed to such a move. So predictable is this pinhead-dancing. Remember past fleeting opposition to Leopard tanks, and so on.

The French president said Ukraine must have the right to “neutralize” Russian military bases that are launching air strikes on Ukraine.

“We think that we should allow them to neutralize military sites where missiles are fired, from where… Ukraine is attacked,” he said, adding: “We should not allow them to touch other targets in Russia, and obviously civilian capacities”.

The comments drew a warning from Russian President Vladimir Putin who said that the “constant escalation” was playing with fire and that long-range strikes on Russia with NATO weapons would have “consequences” for NATO territories. In short, the consequences are all-out war and nuclear conflagration.

Macron’s megalomania is making an outsized contribution to starting World War Three. This diminutive politician (in terms of career achievements) wants to be the leader of Europe and is continually upping the ante with chest-thumping exercises. Weeks ago, he kicked off the idea of sending NATO troops to Ukraine, an idea which is beginning to pick up momentum. This week, Ukraine’s commander-in-chief welcomed the imminent arrival of French military instructors.

Now Macron is putting his shoulder behind the calls for NATO to officially endorse long-range air strikes on Russia.

The major factor prompting such calls is the desperation of NATO as its proxy Ukrainian regime faces collapse amid significant Russian military gains after nearly two and half years of war and hundreds of billions of dollars wasted by Washington and its Western vassals. Russia is winning despite the massive effort by the West to defeat it. So, doubling down on ignominious losses is the Western gamble.

Macron’s bravado is full of deception and delusion. The Ukrainian regime is already using NATO long-range weapons to strike Russia, including French-made Scalp cruise missiles. French and NATO instructors are already in Ukraine and have been there ever since the CIA-sponsored coup in Kiev in 2014 bringing a NeoNazi regime to power.

Macron’s seeming probity about “not allowing attacks on civilian capacities” is cynical nonsense. The Kiev regime and its NATO instructors using long-range NATO weapons have been routinely killing scores of civilians in Russian territory bordering Ukraine, including Belgorod, Bryansk and Kursk.

All this talk about “untying Ukraine’s hands” is merely making existing NATO policy explicit.

That official stance is however a grave escalation. It is as close as possible to declaring war on Russia.

For argument’s sake, let’s give Macron and Scholz some slack. Let’s accept that Russian military bases located in pre-war Russian territory firing weapons at Ukraine should be neutralized. Rhetorical chicanery aside, let’s assume that Macron and Scholz are merely trying to level the battlefield, so to speak, and to give the Ukraine side the same military capability and freedom as the Russian side. You hit us, so we can hit you. Seems fair enough.

Following this rationale, the principle is that Ukraine should be able to hit Russian sites from where attacks are being mounted on Ukraine.

But here’s the rub. Macron and Scholz are inadvertently making the case for Russia to, likewise, strike the centers from where attacks on its territory are emanating. The only reason why Macron and Scholz do not see this logical consistency is presumably due to arrogance, double-think and abject servility to Uncle Sam.

What NATO centers might be legitimate targets? Ramstein Base in Germany would be fair game. This is where the U.S. and NATO chiefs regularly meet to plan the next phase of arms shipments to Ukraine.

How about the French Defense Ministry in Paris? This week the French Minister of Defense held high-level talks with his Ukrainian counterparts to green-light the deployment of French instructors to assist in the firing of weapons at Russia.

How about Berlin, London, Brussels and Madrid where this week more plans were hatched to send billions of dollars worth of more military munitions to Ukraine to keep the proxy war with Russia going?

Macron and Scholz want to untie Ukraine’s hands to hit Russia with NATO missiles. In so doing, they are untying Russia’s hands.

No wonder European citizens are increasingly apprehensive about the unhinged logic of Macron and others like NATO’s Norwegian wooden figurehead Jens Stoltenberg and the Nazi nostalgists in the Baltic states. The forthcoming European Parliamentary elections promise to be a comeuppance for establishment politicians like Macron and Scholz. Ironically, these politicians want to win votes by looking tough. They will end up losing votes and legitimacy because of popular anger and disgust over their reckless warmongering.

They are parading themselves as nothing but pathetic lapdogs for Uncle Sam.

Scholz had up until recently pushed back against the idea of NATO troops and weapons being used directly against Russia. Now he’s flipped like a circus dog for a biscuit treat.

Macron was hosted in Berlin this week to smooth over friction between France and Germany. No doubt, Berlin is irked by the French president taking it upon himself to up the ante in hostilities with Russia, trying to make himself out to be the “top dog” in Europe showing “macho leadership”.

In reality, the “top dog” is nothing but a pathetic pink poodle for Uncle Sam.

How the tables have turned. There was a time when the Germans strutted into Paris with little resistance. Now we see a French narcissist strutting in Berlin… and the Germans lying down and rolling over with their tongues lolling around.

https://strategic-culture.su/news/2024/ ... o-members/

Where mercenaries fighting against Russia come from

Strategic Infographics

May 30, 2024

According to data released by the Russian Defense Ministry in March, more than 13,000 foreign mercenaries have arrived in Ukraine since February 2024.

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https://strategic-culture.su/wp-content ... scaled.jpg
"There is great chaos under heaven; the situation is excellent."

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Re: Footnotes from the Ukrainian "Crisis"; New High-Points in Cynicism Part V

Post by blindpig » Sat Jun 01, 2024 11:42 am

Azov in the UK
POSTED BY @NSANZO ⋅ 06/01/2024

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On May 20, a message from Azov on social media notes that the troops who surrendered in Mariupol, more than 900 soldiers, have been in captivity for two years, with one year without exchanges. “ In conditions when our wounded comrades were dying without access to the necessary medicines and it was impossible to continue the defense of Azovstal, the Mariupol garrison was taken into captivity by order of the military high command ,” Azov notes.

From the exalted epic of the idea of ​​​​the defenders of Azovstal , although it was the Soviet factory that protected the soldiers and not the other way around, Azov has come to have as its central element the motto of the return of its imprisoned soldiers. Thus, the brigade's statement stated that Azov " fights every day for the freedom of its soldiers who have been in captivity for 736 days ." “ We are united by one goal: to bring home 900 captured Azov fighters .” “ In infantry, artillery and tank battles and in the international arena, every action we take is directed towards that objective .”

In this sense, Volodymyr Zelensky has also recently referred to the prisoner exchanges, paralyzed for months and resumed yesterday with an exchange of 75 soldiers for each side. The Ukrainian president insists on the idea of ​​“all for all” exchange, which throughout the more than ten years of war has always been unviable. The issue of prisoners of war is one of the three priorities of the Ukrainian government for the peace summit to be held in Switzerland this month.

Shortly after, Denys Prokopenko, leader of the Azov Brigade that is part of the National Guard (Andriy Biletsky's Third Assault Brigade is part of the Ukrainian Armed Forces), delved into all this in a post on Facebook, pointing out : “ Two years ago, we received the order from the country's top military and political leaders to stop the defense of Mariupol and leave Azovstal in captivity .” According to Prokopenko, the Azov soldiers then “ saved Ukraine with their desperate actions and… now find themselves in Russian captivity .” “ Their names are not forgotten .” And along the same lines as Azov's general statement, the words of leader Redis once again insist on the objective that seems to give meaning to their fight today: “ Today, each of our battles, each shot and each step has an objective: to give back. home to the captured Azovets. And until that happens, we will not stop and we will not stop fighting .”

In this context of international action, a military delegation from the 12th Azov Special Purpose Brigade of the National Guard of Ukraine, together with representatives of relatives of the Ukrainian Azovstal soldiers, participated on May 22 in a round table in Parliament from United Kingdom. The central issue was the defense of the return of the Azov prisoners of war to Ukraine.

The Azov Brigade was represented at the round table by two soldiers present at the battle for Mariupol and former prisoners of war: Lieutenant Arseniy Fedosiuk ( Process ) and Azov veteran Ruslan Serbov ( David ). Also participating was Junior Sergeant Volodymyr Vernyhora ( Zelandia ), who joined the Brigade in 2023. Three of its usual faces were present on behalf of the Azovstal Defenders Family Association: Kateryna Prokopenko, Yuliia Fedosiuk and Yevhenia Synelnyk. The event was chaired by Victoria Prentis, Member of Parliament and Attorney General of England and Wales.

Azov fighters and representatives of the association met with members of the Tories and Labor, two parties that, when it comes to the Ukrainian issue, have maintained a practically identical position. They spoke to parliamentarians about the war between Ukraine and the Russian Federation, the history of Azov, Russian crimes in Mariupol in 2022, as well as their own experience in Russian captivity and the importance of supporting the fight to bring home some 900 Azov soldiers who, for the third year, are in captivity. There was, of course, no mention of the crimes committed by Azov against the civilian population of Donbass throughout the decade of its existence or of the ideological foundations on which Biletsky and his men built in 2014 the battalion that Arsen Avakov introduced into the Ministry of the Interior.

The roundtable was supported and facilitated by Sir John Whittingdale MP, Rt Hon, and Bob Seely MP, Chair of the UK-Ukraine Parliamentary Friendship Group.

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Additionally, Boris Johnson hosted a reception for Azov members in Parliament. On it he waved an Azov flag with the symbol of the Wolfsangel. A video on social media shows Johnson urging the British government to send more weapons and money to Ukraine. In it Johnson thanked the Azov heroes for their presence in Parliament : “ My message to you is very simple. Thank you to the heroes of the Azov Brigade who have honored us with their presence tonight .”

He further stated: “ Give the Ukrainians what they need. Give them the weapons. Give them authorization to use those weapons outside their own borders. It's absolutely ridiculous that Ukrainians are prohibited from doing what Putin himself is doing...why the hell shouldn't Ukrainians be able to attack Russian forces massing on their borders? Give them the ATACMS and give them a budget. Give them the air defenses they need. The best investment we can make in the defense of the entire Euro-Atlantic area is to support Ukrainian heroes. We are completely dependent on heroes like the people who are here with us tonight, from the Azov Brigade .” The normalization of groups like Azov, whose origin is in Ukrainian Patriot, the main source of the different factions of the most extreme nationalist right, is complete.

Curriculum of the members of the Delegation

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Junior Sergeant Volodymyr Vernyhora, seated on the left, wears the emblem of the Yevhen Konovalets school of the Azov Brigade.

Arseniy Fedosiuk has been photographed with people giving the Nazi salute. His laptop has a sticker of the Ukrainian Patriots, one of the main bases of the future Azov. He followed an openly neo-Nazi VKontakte account “12 years without a slave” (referring to the period 1933-1945). An emblem of Borodach inspiration - germ of the first Azov and a group from which both Maksym Zhoryn, deputy commander of the Third Assault Brigade, and Denis Prokopenko come - also appears among his belongings.

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Ruslan Serbov is one of the Jewish members. As Moss Robeson mentioned, “during this visit to London, he wished a happy birthday to his tattooed Hitler comrade Oleksandr Kravtsov, who led an openly neo-Nazi squad that fought with the Azov Regiment at Mariupol.”

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Robeson, one of the greatest experts on banditry in North America, but also interested in carefully monitoring the profiles of Azov members, wrote a few months ago that “there are those who have said that Azov cannot be a neo-Nazi, because one of its most active combatants famous is of "Jewish origin." After losing a leg in Azovstal and being freed in a prisoner exchange, Ruslan "David" Serbov visited Israel to rehabilitate, which he used to promote Ukrainian Nazi brands.

Ruslan Serbov is one of the Azov members who have met during his visit to the UK with former Prime Minister Boris Johnson. Commenting on the photograph, Robeson recalled that, last January, Serbov met with the Galician Youth group, linked to Azov, and that “a few years ago he distributed Nazi leaflets in Lviv.”

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https://slavyangrad.es/2024/06/01/azov- ... ino-unido/

Google Translator

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From Cassad's Telegram account:

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Rybar : About the attack of the Ukrainian Armed Forces on the port of Caucasus and other objects in Russian regions

On the night of May 31, Ukrainian formations once again carried out a combined attack on objects in the rear regions of Russia using Neptune missiles and drones.In the Krasnodar Territory , an oil terminal in the port of Kavkaz in the Temryuk regionwas hit as a result of hits In the village of Volna, a drone struck a railway train on the territory of the oil depot of JSC Tamanneftegaz: three tanks with fuel caught fire, two people were slightly injured.in Novorossiysk , and another device was shot down near the village of Vladimirovka . The drones also attacked the 500/220 kV Taman substation , which ensures the operation of the energy bridge to Crimea, but the facility did not receive significant damage.In the Republic of Tatarstan, air defense crews shot down two Ukrainian drones in the Atninsky district. With a high probability, the devices tried to “reach” industrial enterprises in the region.Interceptions of air targets have also been recorded in other Russian regions. On approach to Voronezh, electronic warfare equipment suppressed one enemy UAV, and another one was shot down in the sky over the Tambov region. As you can see, the Armed Forces of Ukraine are focused on hitting elements of critical infrastructure, damage to which significantly increases economic costs. Thus, the port of Kavkaz is one of the five largest in terms of cargo turnover and is second after Novorossiysk in the region - it is through the harbors on the Black Sea coast that a significant part of the oil supplied from Russia goes. At the same time, there are attempts to disrupt the supply of Crimea, especially in light of yesterday’s attacks on ferry crossings.In the near future, the intensity of such attacks will only increase, especially in view of the upcoming lifting of the ban on Western missile attacks on the “old” regions of Russia. Some measures to protect them have already been taken, but so far they are not enough, and slowness in doing so naturally leads to even greater costs.

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Colonelcassad
Summary of the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation on the progress of the special military operation (as of June 1, 2024) | The main thing:

- The southern group of the RF Armed Forces improved the situation along the front line, the Ukrainian Armed Forces lost up to 660 people;

- The strike of the Russian Armed Forces hit the arsenals of storing Western weapons of the Armed Forces of Ukraine;

- The northern group of the RF Armed Forces continued to advance into the depths of the Ukrainian Armed Forces’ defense and hit the manpower and equipment of eight brigades;

- The Russian Armed Forces attacked the location of a group of technical specialists who were developing flight missions for Ukrainian attack UAVs;

- Units of the “North” group repelled five counterattacks of the Ukrainian Armed Forces per day;

- The RF Armed Forces group "Center" improved the tactical position and repelled six counterattacks of the Ukrainian Armed Forces;

- Russian air defense systems shot down 62 Ukrainian UAVs, 14 HIMARS MLRS rockets and three Hammer guided bombs;

- The Ukrainian Armed Forces lost up to 240 military personnel in the area of ​​responsibility of the Northern Group of the Russian Armed Forces;

- Units of the Northern Group of the Russian Armed Forces hit the HIMARS MLRS during a counter-battery fight;

- Units of the Western group occupied more advantageous positions and repelled one counterattack per day;

- Units of the Western group hit formations of four brigades of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, including Azov (a terrorist organization banned in the Russian Federation);

- The Ukrainian Armed Forces lost up to 450 military personnel in the zone of responsibility of the Western group;

- The Vostok group of the Russian Armed Forces occupied more advantageous positions, the Ukrainian Armed Forces lost over 120 people.

Units of the "Center" group of troops improved the tactical position and also defeated the formations of the 23rd, 27th, 110th mechanized, 71st infantry brigades of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, 109th terrestrial defense brigade in the areas of the settlements of Karlovka, Evgenovka, Rozovka, Vozdvizhenka and Green Field of the Donetsk People's Republic.

In addition, they repelled six counterattacks by assault groups of the 24th, 47th mechanized, 142nd infantry, 25th airborne brigades of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the areas of the settlements of Novoaleksandrovka, Umanskoye, Novgorodskoye and Novopokrovskoye of the Donetsk People's Republic.

Enemy losses amounted to up to 330 military personnel, two infantry fighting vehicles, including a US-made Bradley infantry fighting vehicle, and eight vehicles.

Also hit during the counter-battery fight were : a 155 mm M777 howitzer made in the USA, three 152 mm Msta-B howitzers, two 152 mm Akatsiya self-propelled artillery mounts, a 152 mm D-20 howitzer, three 122 mm howitzers D-30, two 105-mm M119 guns made in the USA.

▫️Units of the Vostok group of troops occupied more advantageous positions and defeated the manpower and equipment of the 58th motorized infantry brigade of the Ukrainian Armed Forces and the 128th terrestrial defense brigade in the areas of the settlements of Urozhainoye and Makarovka of the Donetsk People's Republic.

The Ukrainian Armed Forces lost over 120 military personnel, an armored combat vehicle, four vehicles, as well as a 122-mm D-30 howitzer.

▫️ Units of the Dnepr group of troops defeated the manpower and equipment of the 128th mountain assault brigade of the Ukrainian Armed Forces and the 37th Marine Brigade in the areas of the settlements of Stepnogorsk, Zaporozhye region, and Tyaginka, Kherson region.

The Ukrainian Armed Forces' losses amounted to up to 45 military personnel, an infantry fighting vehicle, two vehicles, a 152-mm D-20 howitzer, and a 152-mm Akatsiya self-propelled artillery mount.

▫️Operational-tactical aviation, unmanned aerial vehicles, missile forces and artillery of groupings of troops of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation struck the location of a group of technical specialists who were developing flight missions for attack unmanned aerial vehicles, and also hit concentrations of enemy manpower and military equipment in 116 regions .

▫️Over the past 24 hours, air defense systems have shot down 62 unmanned aerial vehicles, 14 US-made HIMARS multiple launch rocket systems and three French-made Hammer guided bombs.

📊 In total, since the beginning of the special military operation, the following have been destroyed : 607 aircraft, 274 helicopters, 24,964 unmanned aerial vehicles, 525 anti-aircraft missile systems, 16,219 tanks and other armored combat vehicles, 1,326 combat vehicles of multiple launch rocket systems, 9,998 field artillery guns and mortars, as well as 22,182 units of special military vehicles.

https://t.me/s/boris_rozhin

Google Translator

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MAY 31, 2024 BY M. K. BHADRAKUMAR
Ukraine: Russia won’t escalate, US will

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The aftermath of a Ukrainian attack on Belgorod, Russia, in May

The United States’ proxy war with Russia is at another inflection point. The battleground is shifting dramatically to Russian territory — something without precedent even in the Cold War. How this pans out will be a momentous event in 21st century politics.

There are three defining issues here. One, the NATO strategy going forward, given the realisation in the West that there is no question of Russia being defeated in Ukraine; two, the constitutional crisis in Kiev with the presidential term of Vladimir Zelensky having run out on May 21; and, three, germane to all this, Russia’s intentions.

To be sure, the NATO and the EU are revamping their strategy while Russia hopes to remain “one foot ahead” of the West, as President Vladimir Putin put it.

Russia is not interested in an escalation as it is doing well in the war of attrition with Ukraine. Russia has effectively countered the US’ Mission Creep so far to push through all of its self-imposed limitations on aid to Ukraine and eventually breach those limits.

The big question today is how one could take the Biden Administration’s affirmation — stated by the White House National Security Council, the state department and the Pentagon — that it disfavours the use of western weaponry by Kiev to attack pre-war Russian territory.

An established pattern has set in whereby when Washington says some advanced weapon system is off limits for Ukraine, it actually turns out that Kiev just has to sit out for a few months so that Biden can cross the self-imposed red line.

Therefore, Russia will not take this as Washington’s final word. Curiously, the ground is being prepared to jettison the taboo, with both congressional Republicans and Secretary of State Blinken urging the White House to give the green light and both New York Times and Washington Post reporting that it is only a matter of time before the administration yields to formal American blessing to accelerate strikes on prewar Russia. (here and here)

The New York Times and Guardian reported on Thursday, in fact, a shift already in the US position that now allows Ukrainian US-supplied artillery to fire back at Russian batteries over the Russian border from Kharkov region and also to target concentrations of Russian forces massing on the border in Russia’s Belgorod region.

Meanwhile, a new phase is about to begin to conclude the Battle of Donbass, which, even after two years remains unfinished business. The entrenched Ukrainian military hubs in the region — Pokrovsk, Kramatorsk and Slovyansk — still threaten southern Donetsk Oblast.

Similarly, Volchansk on the Russian border facing Belgorod city and Kupyansk, also an important logistical point and railway node (almost 20 rail lines intersect in the town with about half track straight into Russia) are a thorn in the flesh for Russia’s border region.

Russians have openly stated that repeated raids into Belgorod city and its environs from the Kharkov Region needed to be countered with the creation of a “security zone”. Putin himself had spoken about this as early as in March.

From present indications, Russian operations are directed on two Ukrainian towns close to the border — Volchansk and Lypsti. Russia may stretch the front with a foray into Sumy oblast but any serious effort to capture either Sumy or Kharkov seems unlikely at this stage.

In an incisive analysis, the well-known Russia watcher Big Serge wrote last week, “The main purpose of these fronts will be to fix Ukrainian reserves in place and denude Ukraine’s ability to react on other fronts. This war will not be won or lost in Kharkov, but in the Donbas, which remains the decisive theatre.

“We currently appear to be solidly in the preparatory/shaping phase of a Russian summer offensive in the Donbas, which (likely among other things) will feature a Russian drive on the city of Konstyantinivka. This is the last major urban area shielding the advance towards Kramatorsk-Slovyansk from the south (remembering that these twin cities form the ultimate objective of Russia’s campaign in the Donbas.)”

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Expected Russian summer offensive

Putin has strongly reacted to the recent proxy attacks on Russia’s strategic assets with western weaponry inside its territory. Putin warned that “this unending escalation can lead to serious consequences.”

As he put it, “long-range precision weapons cannot be used without space-based reconnaissance… the final target selection and what is known as launch mission can only be made by highly skilled specialists who rely on this reconnaissance data, technical reconnaissance data.

“For some attack systems, such as Storm Shadow, these launch missions can be put in automatically, without the need to use Ukrainian military… Launching other systems, such as ATACMS, for example, also relies on space reconnaissance data, targets are identified and automatically communicated to the relevant crews that may not even realise what exactly they are putting in. A crew, maybe even a Ukrainian crew, then puts in the corresponding launch mission. However, the mission is put together by representatives of NATO countries, not the Ukrainian military.

“So, these officials from NATO countries, especially the ones based in Europe, particularly in small European countries, should… keep in mind that theirs are small and densely populated countries, which is a factor to reckon with before they start talking about striking deep into the Russian territory. It is a serious matter and, without a doubt, we are watching this very carefully.”

Importantly, Putin underscored, “If Europe were to face those serious consequences, what will the United States do, considering our strategic arms parity? It is hard to tell. Are they looking for a global conflict? I think they wanted to agree upon strategic arms…We will wait and see what happens next.”

However, there are growing signs that the Biden administration may have simply mothballed the idea of western long-range weaponry being used to destroy Russia’s strategic assets deep inside its territory until the NATO summit gets over in Washington (9-11 July) so as to keep the flock together.

Equally, Biden may calculate that it is expedient to drum up tensions with Russia rather than leave the foreign policy turf to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu who may land in DC to address the lawmakers. The Israeli National Security Advisor Tzachi Hanegbi told Israel’s Kan public broadcaster on Wednesday, “we are expecting another seven months of fighting” in Gaza. The Republicans are already flagging Middle East as the single biggest foreign policy goof-up by Biden. This is where the real risk lies.

There is a remarkable consistency in the Russian words that the depth of its proposed buffer security zone along the western borders will entirely depend on security considerations. The deputy chairman of Russia’s security council Dmitry Medvedev had explicitly stated recently that the security zone may not only include Kiev but also extend as far as the Polish border if the West sends Kiev long-range weapons. Significantly, on Tuesday, Putin called into question the legitimacy of Zelensky remaining in power in Kiev after his presidential term ended on May 21.

The ball is in Biden’s court. But the signs are not good. Germany, which is the US’s closest European ally, is apparently switching tack and now says that Ukraine’s “defensive action is not limited to one’s own territory, but [can] also be expanded to the territory of the aggressor.”

The chancellor’s spokesman said Berlin’s previous stance that Ukraine wouldn’t use German weapons on Russian soil had been “a statement of facts” that was true at that moment but did not necessarily apply to the future. He refused to reveal Berlin’s precise agreements with Kiev on using German weapons.

https://www.indianpunchline.com/ukraine ... e-us-will/

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Is Ukraine Going Rogue Or Did It Attack Russia’s Early Warning Systems With American Approval?

ANDREW KORYBKO
MAY 31, 2024

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Russia’s answer to this question will determine its response to any conventional NATO intervention in Ukraine.

Russian-US relations deteriorated further than ever in late May as a result of three developments. First, the US set the ball rolling by more openly allowing Ukraine to use its arms to strike targets inside of Russia, then Poland said that the US will hit all of Russia’s forces in the special operation zone if Moscow uses nukes, and finally, President Putin signaled that he expects NATO to majorly escalate the conflict by sometime this summer. All of this is bad enough, but it’s made even worse by what Ukraine just did.

Russia confirmed that Ukraine hit at least one of its early nuclear warning systems, while Kiev claims to have targeted a second one deeper inside its opponent’s hinterland that hasn’t (yet?) been confirmed. These structures detect incoming intercontinental ballistic missiles of the sort that could be launched by the US in the scenario of a first strike, thus enabling Russia to prepare for an inevitable second strike. They have nothing to do with the Ukrainian Conflict and everything to do with strategic stability.

Both reportedly remain operable, but this nevertheless represents an unprecedented development since never before has any country ever targeted another’s such systems, which could partially blind them to a first strike in the worst-case scenario and thus give the attacking party a huge edge in that event. The further deterioration of Russian-US relations that occurred independently of this development raised tensions to their highest level since the Cuban Missile Crisis so this couldn’t have come at a worse time.

The most important question in the world right now is whether Ukraine is going rogue, perhaps to provoke a crisis like the aforesaid one in the expectation that it could force Russia to withdraw from at least some of the territory that Kiev claims as its own, or if this was done with American approval. The Washington Post’s report about how US officials are concerned about what Ukraine just did lends credence to the first view, but that might just be disinformation for plausible deniability purposes.

At the same time, however, it’s worth remembering how Ukraine defied the US’ public demands not to target Russian oil refineries. The Biden Administration doesn’t want that commodity’s price to spike ahead of the November elections, yet Zelensky still ordered his forces to hit refineries anyhow. That also came amidst the Congressional deadlock over more Ukraine aid that was resolved shortly after those strikes became problematic. It therefore wouldn’t be unprecedented for Ukraine to go rogue yet again.

On top of that, the Financial Times reported that “some Ukrainian officials say (ties with the US) have hit their lowest ebb” due to the abovementioned restrictions on targeting Russian oil refineries and Zelensky’s “paranoia” (as one of their alleged Ukrainian insiders described it) of the US’ intentions. He’s also offended that Biden won’t participate in the upcoming Swiss “peace talks” after snubbing them for a fundraiser, which reportedly prompted him to send a memo ordering officials to criticize the US leader.

Nevertheless, the best approach would arguably be for Russia to assume that America at the very least tacitly approved Ukraine’s strikes on its early warning system(s) since this train of thought aligns with the escalatory trend of the past week. After all, if NATO as a whole or at least a “coalition of the willing” from that bloc commence a conventional intervention in Ukraine, then it could prompt Russia to use tactical nukes in self-defense to stop this invasion force if it crosses the Dnieper and threatens its new regions.

In that event, the US might either conventionally strike all of Russia’s forces in the special operation zone like Poland claimed that it would do, or just cut to the chase by launching a first nuclear strike that could be facilitated by its Ukrainian proxy carrying out more attacks against its early warning systems. There’s also the chance that more such attacks could simply precede a first nuclear strike by the US before any conventional NATO intervention if decisionmakers conclude that an exchange would then be inevitable.

It therefore can’t be ruled out that Ukraine was probing the security of Russia’s early warning systems at the behest of its American patron in preparation of that worst-case scenario, hence the wisdom of Dmitry Suslov’s advice for his country to carry out a “demonstrative” nuclear test. This influential expert from the Russian Council on Foreign and Defense Policy had his policy proposal translated and republished at RT here, which brought it to global attention with the intent of signaling to the US.

Readers might also remember that RT published the proposal by Suslov’s colleague Sergey Karaganov last June where he explained why Russia should nuke Europe in order to deter the US in Ukraine. This latest proposal is much more practical and carries with it no risk of sparking World War III, plus it could represent a fitting finale to Russia’s tactical nuclear weapons exercises that were just carried out. Those were ordered to deter the US, but given its continued escalations, a stronger signal might be needed.

Russia’s answer to the question of whether Ukraine went rogue when attacking its early warning system(s) or if this was done at America’s behest will determine its response to any conventional NATO intervention in Ukraine. The first could see Russia wait until a large-scale force crosses the Dnieper to use tactical nukes, while the second might push it to launch a nuclear first strike against the US before that intervention begins so as to preempt the nuclear first strike that Russia might believe the US is planning.

https://korybko.substack.com/p/is-ukrai ... -or-did-it

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LARRY C. JOHNSON: WESTERN GENERALS AND PUNDITS STILL TRAFFIC IN FALSE ASSUMPTIONS ABOUT RUSSIA
MAY 30, 2024
by Larry C. Johnson, Substack, 5/20/24

A key task in any analysis is to identify your underlying assumptions about the activity or person you are assessing. If you indulge false assumptions, then your entire analytical narrative will be wrong. It is like looking through a pair of prescription glasses — you’re myopic — and prescription is hyperopic. Personally, I prefer to deal primarily with facts and shy away from conjecture.

I want to focus on one recent article that illustrates this point. I thank Andrei Martyanov , who flagged this latest windbag puffery from the U.S. European Commander, Christopher Cavoli. Cavoli insists that, “Russia’s ongoing offensive in Ukraine doesn’t have the legs for a breakthrough.” [https://www.politico.eu/article/top-nat ... n-ukraine/]

“I know the Russians don’t have the numbers necessary to do a strategic breakthrough,” . . . .

“They don’t have the skill and the capability to do it, to operate at the scale necessary to exploit any breakthrough to strategic advantage,”

And his source of this insight? If you guessed, “The Ukrainians,” give yourself a gold star. Cavoli is dead wrong about the numbers, but I am getting ahead of myself.

Admiral Rob Bauer, a NATO dilettante, weighed in with this wowser — which I suspect is also courtesy of the Ukrainians.

He said Russia has managed to muster additional forces,“but the quality of the troops is lower than the troops they started the conflict with” due to the number of officers “that were killed in the beginning of the war” and so aren’t able to train newer soldiers.

Once again we are witnessing a display of projection — i.e., assigning to Russia what the Ukrainians are experiencing. Russia has been adding tens of thousands of troops per month since September 2022. Unlike Ukraine — which snatches guys off the street, shoves them into vans, hauls them to a military center, kits them out in uniforms, gives them a gun, and provides only cursory training — Russia is giving recruits at least six months of training and then placing those new soldiers in units with combat veterans. The ranks of the Ukrainian military are being depleted every single day, while Russia is building up its forces.

So let’s deal with some facts. Look at the numbers of soldiers in the Russian Army vs the supposedly invincible U.S. Army, and you will realize Cavoli’s buffoonery. (Yes, I am assuming these numbers are accurate, because they are provided by Western sources.)

“As of 2024, the Russian Armed Forces have 3.57 million troops, with 1.32 million active military, 2 million reserve, and 250,000 paramilitary. This is the second increase in the size of the Russian military since 2018, with the previous increase of 137,000 troops in August 2022.”

And the United States?

“As of July 31, 2023, the United States Army (USA) has 452,689 active duty personnel, 325,218 Army National Guard personnel, and 176,968 Army Reserve personnel, for a total of 1,073,200 uniformed personnel.”

Cavoli, a biology major, and Bauer, apparently are not very good at math. The Russian armed forces, now, are three times the size of that fielded by the United States, both in terms of active duty and reserve. But, the advantage for Russia is not just in terms of manpower. Consider this — Russia’s forces are located primarily in Russia (yes, there are a few in Syria) and Russia’s General Staff can bring the full might of 1.3 million soldiers to the frontlines far more quickly than the U.S. and NATO could mobilize and move. U.S. forces are scattered around the globe. If the United States decided to fight Russia, the Russians, as defenders, will have at least a three-to-one advantage over the United States.

Cavoli’s flawed assumption? He is looking at what the Russians have done over the past two years and assumes that Russia is operating at full tilt. It is not. He is assuming that because Russia has not committed a million plus soldiers to the battle, that the training is inadequate and the troops unskilled. And, worse of all, he believes the Ukrainians. I want to remind you that Colonel Alex Vershinin, writing at RUSI, provided a detailed account that totally rebuts Cavoli’s wishful thinking — The Attritional Art of War: Lessons from the Russian War on Ukraine.

“Attritional wars require their own ‘Art of War’ and are fought with a ‘force-centric’ approach, unlike wars of manoeuvre which are ‘terrain-focused’. They are rooted in massive industrial capacity to enable the replacement of losses, geographical depth to absorb a series of defeats, and technological conditions that prevent rapid ground movement. In attritional wars, military operations are shaped by a state’s ability to replace losses and generate new formations, not tactical and operational manoeuvres. The side that accepts the attritional nature of war and focuses on destroying enemy forces rather than gaining terrain is most likely to win.

“The West is not prepared for this kind of war. To most Western experts, attritional strategy is counterintuitive. Historically, the West preferred the short ‘winner takes all’ clash of professional armies. Recent war games such as CSIS’s war over Taiwan covered one month of fighting. The possibility that the war would go on never entered the discussion. This is a reflection of a common Western attitude. Wars of attrition are treated as exceptions, something to be avoided at all costs and generally products of leaders’ ineptitude. Unfortunately, wars between near-peer powers are likely to be attritional, thanks to a large pool of resources available to replace initial losses. The attritional nature of combat, including the erosion of professionalism due to casualties, levels the battlefield no matter which army started with better trained forces. As conflict drags on, the war is won by economies, not armies. States that grasp this and fight such a war via an attritional strategy aimed at exhausting enemy resources while preserving their own are more likely to win. The fastest way to lose a war of attrition is to focus on manoeuvre, expending valuable resources on near-term territorial objectives. Recognising that wars of attrition have their own art is vital to winning them without sustaining crippling losses.”

Simplicius the Thinker, who writes at Substack, did a deep-dive on Vershinin’s analysis and explained what it means for Russia:

“Not only do we have confirmation from Western think tanks, and the highest offices of Ukraine itself, that Russia abides by strict brigade staffing and restoration policies, rotating troops constantly and never letting brigades get critically depleted in the way the AFU is forced to do. But recall how Russia utilized experienced Wagner vets in precisely the fashion described above. They ‘distributed’ Wagner and other experienced fighting units throughout the entire formation, adding them to both the Akhmat forces, Rosgvardia, and others, even bringing them to train Belarusian troops.

In short, Russia is strictly adhering to the playbook for ideal husbanding of both forces and battlefield knowledge, wisdom, and experience—doing the utmost to make sure the utterly vital knowledge gained by the most experienced warriors is never squandered but always multiplied throughout and utilized to its fullest.”

Cavoli is lost in some out-dated World War II fantasy. He expected the Russians to launch a blitzkrieg and, when they did not, assumed they were incapable of doing so because of poorly trained, ill-equipped soldiers. If history is any judge, Russian Generals are far superior to any the West has to offer. While the Americans were ousted from Vietnam and Afghanistan, the Russians have been chewing up Ukrainian forces and depleting NATO warehouses of critical weapon supplies. Russia has the means to do a breakthrough, but that is not its stated objective. Attrition! Russia is going to bleed Ukraine and its NATO allies white, rather than risk high-casualty maneuver assaults favored by the likes of Cavoli.

https://natyliesbaldwin.com/2024/05/lar ... ut-russia/

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"Do Something" PR.

As I repeat ad nauseam since 2023--it is being done, and everything that follows is merely a PR designed for domestic consumption. They take a known fact and... recycle it over and over again.


US President Joe Biden has given Kiev permission to use American weapons to hit targets in the part of Russia bordering Ukraine’s Kharkov Region, a US official told Politico on Thursday. Update: the White House later confirmed the decision in a written statement to multiple media outlets. “The president recently directed his team to ensure that Ukraine is able to use US weapons for counter-fire purposes in Kharkov so Ukraine can hit back at Russian forces hitting them or preparing to hit them,” the official said. According to Politico, this decision was “secretly” communicated to Kiev some time before its official confirmation.

These moves are needed to cover up an utter failure in 404. Plus, good for RT piece to at least point this out:


Moscow has dismissed the debate over such strikes in Western capitals. “American weapons are already being used against various targets outside the combat zone,” Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov told reporters last week. “We proceed from the fact that American and other Western weaponry strikes targets on the territory of Russia, primarily civilian infrastructure and residential areas.”

That is why this whole "escalation" is primarily a verbal one and when yet another illiterate boy from Valdai tries to wax strategic, having about zero background in anything related to military and modern warfare:

Dmitry Suslov: It’s time for Russia to think about a ‘demonstrative’ nuclear test. The US-led bloc has lost its fear of the mushroom cloud, but seeing one would perhaps focus some mind.

You can dismiss it as an attempt from this pathetic Moscow copy of already pathetic CFR and their publication Foreign Affairs to signal own relevance. Needless to say, most of those "experts" from Valdai wouldn't be allowed to command a platoon, let alone express their opinions on matters of national security which are based on a serious intel whose knowledge requires the highest levels of clearance and even that may not be enough, but here we are. RT continues to provide tribune to these nincompoops--get a load of the C.V. of this Suslov guy--but, hey, they need to feed their families too, you know.

http://smoothiex12.blogspot.com/2024/05 ... ng-pr.html

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The Children Who Were Killed are Looking Down on Us From Heaven
MAY 31, 2024

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Giant mural of a girl in the side of a building. Photo: International reporters/file photo.

By Faina Savenkova – May 29, 2024

I have been a child of war for three years now, I write and tell the world about how the children of Donbass live. Every time I write a message for the 1st of June, Children’s Day, I write an appeal that ends with the words that the war must end and we children of war can live a peaceful life. But these are just my wishes and hopes.

The war only intensifies. Ukraine and the West do not want peace. They just want a long war in my bleeding homeland. Every day children die in Donetsk, Lugansk, Belgorod. But the more children die, the bloodier the war, the more weapons are supplied by Western countries. For them, we are just an inaccuracy in statistical reports on civilian casualties, figures that can be ignored. I have appealed to the UN, UNICEF, Amnesty International, presidents, and opinion leaders in different countries, but unfortunately they are not interested in us children who suffer from war. The big media and political scientists are silent, they don’t hear us.

Is it hard to give up? I think not. I’m a child who lived ten years in the war, crippled mentally and sleeping for ten years with my eyes open. Waiting for so many years for a Ukrainian shell or a British missile to arrive, so I don’t think so. Waiting for so many years for a Ukrainian shell or a British missile to arrive, I don’t think so.

Today, on the eve of Children’s Day, I mourn for the dead children of Donbass, Belgorod, Palestine, Iraq, Syria, and appeal to the people of Western countries. Perhaps you do not know what your governments are doing. Perhaps you don’t care about us Children of War, but about the supply of weapons to Ukraine. The involvement of your military in the war in Ukraine will bring war to you. The streets of Paris and Rome will be deserted as they are now in Ukraine, because everyone will be sent to the front and your children will perish as they are now perishing in our country.

Remember this. Once, I was pushed to create by the sounds of falling Ukrainian bombs, it was very loud and very scary, believe me… There’s nothing more terrifying than a war that’s happening right outside your windows.

I will continue to write books, I will talk about kindness and peace in them. And someday I will definitely come to Kyiv, where I will tell my peers about what I have experienced and seen myself. I believe in that, if at least the next generation of my homeland can live in peace without the rumble of guns and deaths, and celebrate International Children’s Day, which is so much needed by the children of war.

Faina Savenkova defines herself as a writer and social activist who lives in the war, but otherwise, she is an ordinary teenager who loves to watch anime and TV series, and if there was no war and she had a choice, she wouldn’t be different from most of her peers.

https://orinocotribune.com/the-children ... om-heaven/
"There is great chaos under heaven; the situation is excellent."

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Re: Footnotes from the Ukrainian "Crisis"; New High-Points in Cynicism Part V

Post by blindpig » Sun Jun 02, 2024 12:29 pm

Zelensky, the “peace” summit and the position of the Global South
POSTED BY @NSANZO ⋅ 06/02/2024

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Consistent with its position until now, China has announced that it will not participate in the peace summit that Switzerland is preparing for Ukraine and that will be held in just a few days. Achieving great attendance in terms of number of countries present and high level of representation has been one of the objectives of the Ukrainian Government during these last weeks of preparation for what was to be the staging of the global consensus of support for Ukraine. The importance of the photograph is such that Volodymyr Zelensky has not hesitated to use emotional blackmail to affirm that “Putin would applaud” the absence of Joe Biden, an argument with which the Ukrainian president has made clear the propaganda aspect of the summit. With an agenda that has been reduced to practical issues such as nuclear security, the exchange of prisoners and the return of Ukrainian children currently in Russia, Ukraine needs to compensate for the low profile of the summit's content with an image of strength.

To this end, kyiv has tried to guarantee China's assistance, a presence that it would have presented as a Russian defeat in the form of the loss of an ally. Ukraine benefited from the current Western propaganda, which exaggerates, without providing any verifiable data, Chinese aid to the Russian war effort. The creation of the discourse is not limited to assuming that China acts with respect to Moscow in a manner similar to that of NATO countries with Ukraine, but also presents the Russian Federation as a country dependent on its southern ally. . China, which has benefited from the discounts that Russia has had to apply to its raw materials to maintain its market share in an important part of its exports, has maintained a neutrality in the war that has not prevented it from continuing its economic relations with Ukraine and deepen its current political alliance with Russia. Hence the disappointment of the West, which, even with threats of sanctions, has not been able to obtain from Xi Jinping a statement criticizing Russia for its actions in the war and has seen how its demands that Beijing pressure Moscow have fallen on deaf ears. However, that stance gave Ukraine's allies the opportunity to distance China from Russia or, at the very least, sow some uncertainty in that relationship. China's refusal to condemn Russia's actions and join the sanctions made it possible for the presence of a Chinese envoy in Switzerland to be presented as a change of course by Beijing and the beginning of greater isolation of Russia.

Following a Reuters publication , which assumed that China will not ultimately send any representative, one of the agency's journalists sought comment from the Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson on Thursday. “China attaches great importance to Switzerland hosting the first Ukraine Peace Summit and has maintained close communication with Switzerland and relevant parties in this regard since the beginning of this year,” Mao Ning said in response to the journalist's question before moving on to again reflect Beijing's position. “China has always maintained that the international peace conference must fulfill the three important elements of recognition of both Russia and Ukraine, equal participation of all parties and fair discussion of all peace plans,” he explained.

China's position is based on its actions over the last two years, in which it has even proposed its roadmap for the resolution of the conflict and has presented itself as an applicant for mediation. Since that moment, Ukraine has tried without success to achieve a rapprochement with Beijing that would mean taking away Russia's most important ally at the moment. The effort made has only achieved a conversation with President Xi, although not his presence alongside Volodymyr Zelensky in the most important photograph for the Ukrainian president. Circumstances on the front are complicated and Ukraine faces the possibility of even further escalation. This week, kyiv received permission to use Western weapons against Russian military targets near the Kharkiv border from a dozen countries, including Germany and the United States - the latter not publicly, although the information has already been leaked -, for What is to be expected is an increase in the intensity of the fighting, an expansion of the war and an even greater involvement of Western countries. In this context of clear escalation, to which Russia may respond by intensifying its attacks, demanding the presence of Xi Jinping was an act of insolence typical of someone who usually achieves all his objectives.

Throughout the conflict, Ukraine has achieved the protection of its partners in the face of its flagrant non-compliance with the signed peace agreements, it has had their support when it came to obtaining privileged gas transit contracts, it has provided defensive weapons when it has been attacked and little by little he has obtained the equipment he demanded from his partners. This week, kyiv gave the green light to cross-border attacks using Western weapons. And he has done so after arguments as inconsistent as Volodymyr Zelensky's speech in one of his last interviews. “Russian troops mock Ukrainians and hunt them. The Russian Armed Forces understand that we see them, but we cannot reach them with our weapons,” stated the Ukrainian president, despite the fact that Ukraine has and uses weapons capable of reaching any position that is in sight without the need to use Western ammunition. Zelensky's recent inconsistencies are not limited to this episode and have been reflected even by the Western press. In his most bizarre statements, the Ukrainian president even suggested that Russia invaded Ukraine under an agreement with Western countries. In relation to this type of comments and citing people close to the Ukrainian leader, the Financial Times used the word paranoia this week to define the president's mental state. “Zelensky has great anxiety about the military situation, but especially about the June peace conference,” the outlet writes, putting those words in the mouth of a Ukrainian officer.

The importance of the summit for Zelensky is evident. The Ukrainian president seeks an image of unanimity, a photograph of consensus in favor of the Ukrainian demand for Russian surrender. Any peace summit at a time when the convening party seeks to be able to bombard its opponent with greater intensity must be taken into account as an act of cynicism. In this case, the absence of one of the parties in conflict makes the summit really a public relations exercise that the Ukrainian president wants to share with the heads of State and Government of his allies, but also those of Russia. The deception has not worked with the most important country on that second list, China. After insisting on the obvious that the parties in conflict must be invited, the spokesperson for the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs insisted that “otherwise, the peace conference will hardly be able to play a substantive role in the restoration of peace. These elements proposed by China are fair, legitimate and are not directed against any of the parties. They are included in the Common Understandings on the Political Solution of the Ukraine Crisis published jointly by China and Brazil recently and reflect the universal concern of the international community, especially large developing countries," he added, insisting on the Chinese demand for participation and recognition of Russia and Ukraine. The comment is not only the reaffirmation of the Chinese-Brazilian statement from a week ago, but also the confirmation of the existence of two clear blocs, with the West willing to risk an escalation of unpredictable results to avoid having to cross the red line of diplomacy. and the Global South, which remains in a neutral position that simply seeks to stop the war in Europe. This reality is what shatters Ukrainian aspirations to force Russian surrender based on political and economic pressure from its partners in search of isolation from Moscow that has failed as much as the sanctions did.

https://slavyangrad.es/2024/06/02/29884/

Google Translator

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From Cassad's Telegram account:

Colonelcassad
Report from the Russian Ministry of Defense (as of June 2, 2024)

Air defense systems shot down two Ukrainian MiG-29 aircraft;

— The South group of troops improved the situation along the front line and destroyed three ammunition depots of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the enemy lost up to 290 troops;

— Russian air defense systems destroyed 50 Ukrainian UAVs, 23 HIMARS shells, two Tochka-U and one Neptune missiles, three Hammer bombs in one day;

— The Russian Armed Forces hit the Ukrainian radar station for detecting and tracking air targets P-18;

— The Vostok group of troops occupied more advantageous positions in its area of ​​​​responsibility, the enemy lost up to 125 military personnel;

— The “North” group defeated 5 enemy brigades, repelled 7 counterattacks, the losses of the Ukrainian Armed Forces amounted to up to 190 military personnel;

— The losses of the Ukrainian Armed Forces per day in the zone of responsibility of the West group of forces amounted to 465 military personnel, a tank and three armored vehicles.

As a result of successful actions, units of the "Center" group of troops liberated the settlement of Umanskoye, Donetsk People's Republic.

The formations of the 23rd, 24th mechanized brigades of the Ukrainian Armed Forces and the 109th technical defense brigade were defeated in the areas of the settlements of Novgorodskoye, Evgenovka, Rozovka and Novoselovka First of the Donetsk People's Republic.

Five counterattacks of the assault groups of the 47th, 110th mechanized and 68th ranger brigades of the Ukrainian Armed Forces were repelled in the areas of the settlements of Novoaleksandrovka, Solovyevo, Sokol and Novopokrovskoye of the Donetsk People's Republic.

Enemy losses amounted to over 360 military personnel, two vehicles, a 155 mm M777 howitzer made in the USA, a 152 mm Msta-B howitzer , three 122 mm D-30 howitzers and two MT-12 Rapier anti-tank guns .

▫️Units of the Vostok group of troops occupied more advantageous positions, and also defeated the manpower and equipment of the 58th motorized infantry brigade of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, the 128th terrestrial defense brigade and the 23rd security brigade of the President of Ukraine in the areas of the settlements Urozhaynoye, Staromayorskoye and Vodyanoye of the Donetsk People's Republic Republic.

The Ukrainian Armed Forces lost up to 125 military personnel, a tank , six vehicles, a US-made 155-mm M198 howitzer and a Polish-made 155-mm Krab self-propelled artillery mount .

▫️Units of the Dnepr group of troops defeated the personnel and equipment of the 65th mechanized, 128th mountain assault brigades of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the 15th brigade of the National Guard and the 38th marine brigade north of the village of Rabotino, as well as in the areas of Zherebyanki settlements , Novopokrovka, Zaporozhye region and Antonovka, Kherson region.

The losses of the Armed Forces of Ukraine amounted to up to 70 military personnel, six vehicles, a 155-mm M777 howitzer made in the USA, a 152-mm Msta-B howitzer , a 152-mm Akatsiya self-propelled artillery mount, a 122-mm Gvozdika self-propelled artillery mount and 105-mm mm M119 gun made in the USA.

▫️ During the day, operational-tactical aviation, unmanned aerial vehicles, missile forces and artillery of groupings of troops of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation hit : the radar station for detecting and tracking air targets P-18, as well as accumulations of enemy manpower and military equipment in 103 areas. Two MiG-29 aircraft of the Ukrainian Air Force were shot down

by air defense systems . 50 unmanned aerial vehicles , 23 US-made HIMARS multiple launch rocket systems , two Tochka-U operational-tactical missiles , three French-made Hammer guided bombs and a Neptune anti-ship missile were destroyed .

▫️In total, since the beginning of the special military operation, the following have been destroyed : 609 aircraft, 274 helicopters, 25,014 unmanned aerial vehicles, 526 anti-aircraft missile systems, 16,228 tanks and other armored combat vehicles, 1,327 combat vehicles of multiple launch rocket systems, 10,024 field artillery guns and mortars, as well as 22212 units of special military vehicles.

https://t.me/s/boris_rozhin

Google Translator

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Judge Andrew Napolitano and ‘Judging Freedom’

I take pleasure in offering below the link to my just aired debut on the ‘Judging Freedom’ youtube.com channel of Judge Andrew Napolitano.

This U.S. based political analysis show has a global audience numbering in the millions and is an excellent platform for in-depth discussion of leading issues in the international and domestic U.S. spheres. Our chat focused on the Ukraine war and, in particular, the proposal now being put forward by Antony Blinken, Emanuel Macron, David Cameron and Jens Stoltenberg to give the Ukrainians full freedom to decide how to use the long range missiles and other advanced attack hardware now being delivered to them by the USA and allied NATO countries to further their self-defense by striking deep into the territory of the Russian Federation.



Transcript below by a reader

Judge Andrew Napolitano 0:32
Hi everyone, Judge Andrew Napolitano here for Judging Freedom. Today is Thursday, May 30th, 2024. Dr. Gilbert Doctorow joins us from Belgium. Dr. Doctorow is an independent scholar and world-recognized expert on all things Russian. Professor Doctorow, it’s a pleasure, my dear friend. We have run clips of you happily on our show, but this is the first time that we’re able to interview you, an interview that we’ve longed for, and we deeply appreciate your time and your thoughts.

Gilbert Doctorow 1:08
Well, thanks so much for the invitation. It’s very kind of you.

Napolitano:
Of course. Yesterday, not far from where you are now in Brussels, NATO leaders decided to promise to give President Zelensky’s government a billion dollars. Time Magazine reported it. Chris, if you want to pop that up in a headline: “Belgium commits $1 billion to Ukraine amid Zelensky’s whirlwind European tour.” Apparently, President Zelensky is traveling around Europe, was in Belgium yesterday, but not today. What motivates NATO to give a billion dollars in what is now so obviously a lost cause?

Doctorow: 1:52
You say it’s a lost cause, but the military leadership in NATO does not want to believe that. They’re still living in a bubble, and they are hopeful that with these incoming deliveries of weapons and of money that Mr. Zelensky can hold on long enough so that they can prop him up to go past the U.S. elections and perhaps even for Ukraine to stay on as a sovereign country with or without Mr. Zelensky at its helm.

Napolitano: 2:25
Well, how stable or unstable is the Ukrainian government as we speak? I mean, he’s not even legally the president any longer, is he? He’s not even legally the head of state or the head of the government any longer.

Doctorow:
The Ukrainian government, Mr. Zelensky at its head, are there as long as the United States wants it to be there, and not a minute longer. The Russians have been dealing with this issue with considerable attention in the last few days. And I have to explain [glitch] that my particular added value, I hope, is to be watching closely what the Russians are saying among themselves, since I am a Russian speaker and follow closely their domestic television.

And they are saying that Mr. Zelensky is being held on in office by the United States, which is perfectly aware of his illegitimacy, given that his presidential term expired, precisely so that they can lay on him all of the unpopular measures, including, first and foremost, the reduction of age for mobilization, for call-up to military service. This is enormously unpopular, it is being pushed through by Zelensky and the people around him, and it will be a great burden on his historical legacy, along with other unpopular measures relating to the military effort that the United States wants to pin on his chest before he is booted out.

Napolitano: 4:03
Can the United States bring about regime change in Ukraine whenever it wants?

Doctorow:
I believe so. Of course, it’s difficult to say with any certainty. There is a certain agency within Ukraine. But it is highly likely that at any moment of the United States calling, they will be able to produce one or more credible candidates to take over from Zelensky.

Napolitano: 4:31
How much longer can the Ukraine military last, resisting the Russians with their strategic advantages?

Doctorow:
Well, the strategic advantages were there almost from the beginning. Just like saying that because of the United States’ failure to approve, Congress’s failure to approve the appropriations that Biden asked for months ago, the Ukrainians are suffering a great disadvantage in their available artillery shells and so on. They were suffering a disadvantage from day one of the military operation back in February 2022. We speak about a 10-to-1 Russian advantage today; there was a 10-to-1 advantage then.

5:14
So from the very start, the Russians were a superior force. The question was, for them, how much time it would take them to get into the saddle. The Russians have a folk saying that “We’re very slow getting into the saddle, but we ride very fast once we’re there.” And that is what we’re seeing today. They’re riding quite fast. How long the Ukrainians can resist this is questionable. I just would like to point out that one indicating factor here. Going back a month or more, the daily news briefings on Russian state television were speaking about 800, 1000, 1,200 Ukrainian soldiers killed in action in the 24 hours preceding. They’re now speaking about 1,700 Ukrainians. That is a 40 percent rise since the Russians began what has not formally been called an offensive. It’s just “an improvement to our local positions”, as they describe it.

6:12
If, when they decide to call this an offensive, I can’t imagine what the numbers of deaths will look like, not to mention desertions. The Russians are also reporting heavy desertions of Ukrainian soldiers to their side. And how and why, why is it credible? Because the people who are now deserting were forced into the military, they were picked up off the streets against protests of bystanders, their wives and relatives, and they were dragooned into the army. So it’s logical when the Russian forces give them a high sign to come on over, they they will cross over and they do.

Napolitano: 6:48
Well, this obviously can’t last much longer, no matter how much cash– disagree with me if you see fit, of course– no matter how much cash or how much weaponry Joe Biden and Tony Blinken send over there, right? I mean, they need human beings and they don’t have them.

Doctorow:
That’s exactly right. At the same time, from the very beginning, Russian state television, Russian panelists on talk shows, which I follow quite closely, have always warned against being overconfident or underestimating the determination and the force of the enemy. Even today, while the Russians are steamrolling various parts of the front, they are moving daily several kilometers inland on the Ukrainian side and taking village after village, which they name every day. Nonetheless, there are points of resistance where the Ukrainians are throwing their reserves and their best equipment in the hope of withstanding the Russian assault.

And there, there is what the Russian war correspondents described as savage, vicious fighting going on. Let’s not underestimate this reality. So, it is a tough fight. And we have to remember that President Putin’s first concern in fighting this military effort is the lives of his soldiers. And the Russians are being very careful to avoid expending lives unnecessarily for the sake of public relations exercises, which is what the the Ukrainian army has been doing for more than a year. In this case, the progression is not blinding speed, but it is moving steadily and with minimal losses on the Russian side.

Napolitano: 8:43
Doctor Doctorow, what is, without getting too graphic, what is savage, vicious combat? Hand-to-hand, face-to-face combat in the streets?

Doctorow:
Almost that. The Russian troops, again, the war correspondents on the Russian side are accompanying the troops, and we see this on nightly news. There are visits to villages that are still being fought over, where the northern part of the city is being controlled by the Russians and the southern or central parts are still controlled by Ukrainian forces. And indeed they are going house to house. In the fields, though, in the forests, we’re talking about the trenches, and the Russians are dropping, both artillery strikes and heavy bombs are being dropped to do the utmost damage to the Ukrainian entrenched positions. But nonetheless, the storm brigades have to come through, and they go through the trenches. And of course this is a risky and very personal fight occasionally. They hope to find empty trenches but that’s not always the case.

Napolitano: 9:54
All right, let’s go to a big picture. Do you think that this war can end while President Zelensky is still in office, or he’s not in office, while President Zelensky is still in charge of the government, whether legally or not? I mean, stated differently, will the Russians even negotiate a surrender with him, or is there such antipathy toward him that they won’t even deal with him and they’ll insist on regime change first, end of the war second?

Doctorow:
Well, let’s differentiate here. You’ve used a very emotional word, “antipathy”. This is a big point of distinction between the Russian official positions and the Ukrainian official positions. The Ukrainians are indeed, or they have, since Zelensky said he will not negotiate– didn’t say, it was an edict– that the Ukrainian side cannot negotiate with Putin’s government. They will not negotiate with the Russians until Putin is removed. The Russian side is rather different. There is no antipathy here. The Russians are questioning now the legitimacy. What is the value of Mr. Zevensky’s signature on a piece of paper when according to the constitutional term that he served, he is no longer president? This is the Russian point of objection to Zelensky signing a document.

11:18
But I’d like to come back to the question you asked just before that, [of] the timing. I think that the removal or disappearance of Mr. Zelensky and the capitulation will come at the same time.

Napolitano: 11:35
In the past two days, we’ve heard two startling announcements, one by U.S. Secretary of State Blinken, that the United States– this is obviously leaking this out as a trial balloon– the United States is considering authorizing the Ukrainian military to use offensive weaponry and attack sites inside Russia, and the President of France, Emanuel Macron, made a similar statement. Before you comment on either, let’s listen to President Macron yesterday, cut number one.

Emanuel Macron, French President 12:13
[clip translated to English voice] “So how do we explain to the Ukrainians that we’re going to have to protect these towns and basically everything we’re seeing right now around Kharkiv if we tell them ‘You’re not allowed to reach the point where the missiles are fired from?’ The missiles. In fact, we’re telling them, ‘We’re giving you weapons, but you can’t defend yourselves.’ So we stay exactly within the same framework. We think that we should enable them to neutralize the military sites which the missiles are fired from, and basically the military sites from which Ukraine is attacked. But we must not allow them to hit other targets in Russia, obviously civilian capabilities or other military targets. When it’s from identified targets in Russia that Ukraine is attacked, well, I think we have to be able to allow them to do that if we really want to retain our objective.”

Napolitano: 13:01
Do you think that President Macron and Secretary Blinken perceive the danger of publicly permitting the use of– in the case of Macron, French, in the case of Blinken, American– offensive weaponry to land inside Russia? Do you think that they don’t realize what that opens up as a potential lawful response by the Russians?

Doctorow: 13:30
That assumes that he was sincere in making these statements, and sincerity and the personality of Mr. Macron are very far apart.

Napolitano:
[laughs] OK.

Doctorow:
The man rushes to be at the front of the orchestra, and since this is the subject of the day, freeing the Ukrainians to use Western military hardware as they see fit for their own defense, it all sounds very logical and is appealing to the general public in the West. He is quick to jump to the front and state exactly that. He will do anything to get into the news, and he’ll do anything to appear to be the leading force in European foreign and defense policy.

Now coming back to what does it all mean? I say it is most likely a bluff. I don’t think the people around him are so foolish and so incompetent and so ignorant not to be aware of the threats, the vital threats to France as a country that doing this would result in. And I think that as we consider this, I say very reasonable, proposal to give to give the Ukrainians their freedom to use equipment for their defense, we have to consider a very important development on the Russian side that has gotten remarkably little attention in Western reporting.

15:01
And that is, I mean, President Putin’s statements at a press conference held in Tashkent airport before his departure for Moscow, at the end of a three-day visit, very successful business and government visit, to Uzbekistan. He called in the Russian press and they had a standing press conference as they, maybe 20 Russian journalists, were lined up on one side and five or six yards away was Mr. Putin standing at a microphone. He used this to make a programmatic statement that remarkably has not gotten attention it deserves in the West.

And three or four years ago, considering Mr. Putin’s dignified and respectful approach to international affairs, I wrote that he was making a very bad mistake in not bringing back the playbook of Nikita Khrushchev. Nobody ever called Nikita Khrushchev a thug. Nobody ever treated him as if he were a lightweight. And Mr. Putin has unfortunately subjected himself to that type of treatment, because he never took off a shoe and banged it on the table of the United Nations.

Napolitano:
[laughs] You’re dating yourself. We all remember that as children.

Doctorow:
And he never said, “We will bury you.” Now, Mr. Putin– and people like Paul Craig Roberts have come out and said repeatedly that he is leading us into World War III by being such a nice guy. Now on Monday he was not a nice guy, and I’d like to say exactly why he wasn’t a nice guy. First of all, he called out the falseness of the statements that Macron and Stoltenberg and Cameron and Blinken have made regarding freeing the Ukrainians to do what they need to, to defend themselves. He said this is ignoring the fact that they all know or should know that the targeting and even pressing of the button of these weapons is being done by NATO officers, not by Ukrainians. It’s not even clear if the Ukrainians who are standing by know where they’re sending the missiles that [are] being launched.

Napolitano: 17:21
Let me just interrupt you for a second. Is it probable that some of those NATO officers are Americans?

Doctorow:
Oh, of course they are, but there are greater numbers [who] are Poles and Brits. And the Germans aren’t there, because Mr. Scholz understood exactly what I’m about to say. And he didn’t want Germany to disappear from the map. The point that Mr. Putin was making is that he stripped away the fig leaf. The Russians have known this, they’ve talked about this among themselves on television. But they never had the head of state say what he said on Monday, that this is really NATO that is using Ukraine for its purposes to wage its war on Russia. The only thing– he was a hair breath away from declaring war on NATO.

18:12
And there was more that he said, which we haven’t heard from Mr. Putin or from any leader of the Soviet Union since Mr. Khrushchev. And that is, he addressed himself to the three Baltic states, Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia. And he said, gentlemen, ladies and gentlemen, because they’re actually ladies prime ministers there. “You take a step back for a moment and consider who you are and who we are. And you are small countries that are densely populated. Do reconsider your words that you will bring Russia to its knees.”

And those are the words a week ago of the prime minister of Estonia. This is as close as the head of state could come to say that he will obliterate, wipe off the map, these three states. Is this is Mr. Nice Guy? It isn’t.

Napolitano:
Yeah, I think we have a very small clip, but a poignant one, of just what you’re talking about. It’s only about 20 seconds long. It’s President Putin warning the NATO countries. I know there may be some internet difficulties, so I’m going to read what he says, and then we’re going to play it.

“Representatives of NATO countries, especially in Europe, especially in small countries,” this is what you just mentioned professor, “they should be aware of what they are playing with before talking about striking Russian territory.”

Here is the excerpt of President Putin from that press conference of which you spoke, cut number four.

Vladimir Putin 19:50
“Representatives of NATO countries, especially in Europe, especially in small countries, they should be aware of what they are playing with before talking about striking Russian territory. In general, this constant escalation can lead to serious consequences.”

Napolitano:
In general, this constant escalation can lead to serious consequences. Have you heard him speak that profoundly and directly before, about NATO countries?

Doctorow:
No, and I would like to take this back to something [that has] happened. He’s made three visits abroad since his election, or re-election. The first was to Beijing, the second was to Belarus, Minsk, and the third was to Tashkent, which is where he made the press conference that you’ve just shown. And I take it back a couple of weeks to his stay in Beijing. I think that his lengthy and very detailed discussions with Xi gave him additional confidence to proceed with the direct challenge to United States-led NATO that we heard in his Tashkent meeting.

21:10
When I said that his time in Tashkent was successful, let’s bear in mind that the United States, under Blinken, has made trips through Central Asia in the hopes of dislodging Kazakhstan, dislodging Uzbekistan– these are the largest, most populous and important Central Asian countries– from the Russian orbit. And there was a time, going back a year, when it looked like they were wobbling. The nature of the meeting that Putin had in three days– it was a day longer than was planned– in Tashkent, during which a number of very important commercial agreements were signed including for the building of the first nuclear power station in Central Asia, a small one but nonetheless, the first one, which will be Russian built.

22:04
This type of warm greeting, without any side glances to those who are giving the “come hither” note like Mr. Blinken, tells you that Central Asian countries are behaving as normal countries would. They go with winners, and they have sensed that Russia is the winner in the war with Ukraine and NATO.

Napolitano:
Wow, profound, profound observations here. How much longer do you think the war can last, given what you told us earlier, Professor, about 1,700 Ukrainian troops killed in a day, and the need to conscript men, kidnap them in their early 20s off the streets with no real training and sending them to the front lines. This can’t go on much longer, can it?

Doctorow:
It really depends on the Russian generalship and how they proceed with executing their strategic plans. We don’t know. The Russian public doesn’t know. This is, as it should be, a well-guarded secret. They are engaging in what is likely a feint in Kharkov. Mr. Putin has said, and I don’t think he was lying, that the Russians are not going to storm Kharkov. The Ukrainians nonetheless were forced, compelled, to bring many of their reserves and best equipment to the Kharkov region to forestall what could be the overrunning of the second-largest city in the country and a tremendous public relations disaster.

Nonetheless, where exactly the Russians are going to make their big push, now that they have weakened the entire confrontation line forces of the Ukrainians, we don’t know. But I think they have a very great motivation to do this quickly. And I’m stating facts and not wishes. Everyone is talking about the three Ukrainian pilots who just graduated in Arizona, I believe, from a U.S. training center, and how they have to be 18 and such pilots to have a brigade and so on.

24:27
All of this is being talked about in Western media, and the Russians also read the news. You know, they are obliterate. And they are aware of the plans as early as possible to introduce Ukrainian, supposedly Ukrainian-pilot F-16s into Ukrainian airspace to challenge Russian air domination and perhaps to fire missiles into Russian Federation territory. This would bring us extremely close to World War III. I think that to prevent that, the Russians are going to overrun Ukrainian positions in the immediate weeks.

Napolitano:
Professor Doctorow, I’ve thoroughly enjoyed this interview, and I can tell you from the number of people watching internationally and from their comments, our viewers are as well. And this will multiply many, many times over, because we post it immediately. But before we end, I want to go back to where we began, which was the conference in Belgium, where you are. Here’s President Zelensky– cut number two, Chris– here’s President Zelensky there yesterday.

Volodymyr Zelenskyy 25:42
Even from reconnaissance, you get maps, satellite images, but you cannot respond. I think it’s unfair. But we cannot, and this is a fact, risk the support of our partners. And that is why we do not use the weapons of our partners on the territory of the Russian Federation. Please give us the opportunity to retaliate against their military.

Napolitano:
What do you think?

Doctorow: 26:07
You’re looking at the left of the screen. I’m looking at the right of the screen.

Napolitano:
Oh, good point. Who was that next to him?

Doctorow:
That is the Belgian Prime Minister de Croo. And I think in his presence, we have the tragedy of the European situation. The man is very intelligent. He’s very well educated. He is a second- or third-generation governing elite of Belgium. His father was a minister. And yet, he has lost his spine, absolutely. And he is listening to these rantings of Zelensky and taking them seriously. Zelensky is a showman, indeed, and he has done an unexpectedly good job of selling Ukraine everywhere. He’s had some failures. He has misjudged his audience from time to time. But generally, he’s been spot on, and so he was here. But let’s just consider, you speak about a $1 billion additional grant to him. In the big order of things, that isn’t very much. In the European newspapers, the Financial Times are talking about the $100 billion in guaranteed assistance to Ukraine that is now being discussed among EU member countries. It sounds good. All of this is very good headline news, except when you go two or three paragraphs down the article and you find that there’s no new money. This is just re-designating and giving a new heading to money that was allocated or described as coming forth a long time ago. So his visit here may give him additional front-page space in our media, but it doesn’t change very much.

Napolitano: 27:57
Dr. Gilbert Doctorow, thank you very much, very, very illuminating and informative and fascinating comments from you. I hope you’ll come back again and visit with us soon.

Doctorow:
Thanks again.

https://gilbertdoctorow.com/2024/05/30/ ... g-freedom/

Judge Andrew is a conservative hack but he does give platform to a lot of folks opposed to the current regime's madness.

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Donetsk direction: capture of the administration building in Krasnogorovka
May 31, 2024
Rybar

Image

In the Donetsk direction, units of the Russian Armed Forces continue the assault on Krasnogorovka , relying on previously taken positions in the industrial zone of the refractory plant. As a result of the latest attacks, they were able to advance a little in the center of the village.

Judging by the footage that appeared on the Internet , Russian military personnel established control over the city council house. It was taken by two assault groups, which entered the building from two directions and cleared the facility during close-in shooting combat.

However, the enemy continues to cling to the buildings and launches counterattacks. As before, progress is hampered by the heavy use of FPV drones, making it difficult to use the equipment to support infantry. At the same time, the Aerospace Forces aviation destroys the positions of the Ukrainian Armed Forces with gliding bombs and paves the way for the advancing units.

At the moment, Ukrainian formations are occupying defenses in a complex of five-story buildings north of the refractory plant and the city council, where fierce fighting is taking place literally for every house. However, after they are taken under the control of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, only the private sector will remain, which will be more difficult for the enemy to maintain.

https://rybar.ru/doneczkoe-napravlenie- ... nogorovke/

Google Translator

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REDACTED NEWS: “NATO IS COOKING UP SOMETHING BIG” AND PUTIN IS READY FOR ALL OUT WAR
MAY 31, 2024





YouTube link No2 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0xUuPKDGrcc

https://natyliesbaldwin.com/2024/05/red ... l-out-war/

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A Minute Of Humanity...

... VSU tanker Maxim Likhachev "dialed" Volga 149.200 channel and arranged with Russians his surrender... in T-64 tank, which protected him from shots in the back from his "fellow" VSU barrier troops. Obviously VSU thought that this "armor group" broke through Russians defenses, which technically was correct. VSU immediately reported a "success". Boy, have they been let down. Here is video of Likhachev surrendering with the tank and after a few seconds of necessary battlefield procedures you can see how Russian soldiers change their attitude after he is taken in. They pat him on the shoulder and the guy, at his 39 years of age, will have a good meal, shower and sleep in a long time before being debriefed by counterintel. He saved his life... and lives of others too. It is a remarkable video in so many respects and idiosyncrasies which are beyond the grasp of NATO "Russia experts".

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bOtSW8m-9ak
(You gotta sign in, what bullshit.)

http://smoothiex12.blogspot.com/2024/05 ... anity.html

******

Ukraine Weekly Update
31st May 2024

DR. ROB CAMPBELL
JUN 01, 2024

<snip>

Russian Outproduces West In Shell Production

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Russian gunners from the 3rd Army Corps of the Battlegroup Yug firing D-20 howitzer 152 mm shells at Ukrainian positions - Sputnik International, 1920, 26.05.2024
Russia is now producing around 4.5 millions shells a year which is three times more that the US and EU combined (at 1.3 millions). Furthermore, Western shells, at $4,000 each, are four times more expensive than Russian shells - according to Sputnik. A Ukrainian source is reporting general ammunition shortages across all fronts.

‘Noah’s Ark’ - Donetsk

Children growing up in Donetsk over the past ten years have lived in constant fear of shelling and bombs. In the Donbass, a sanctuary has been created for thousands of animals which is being used to help the children rediscover the lost joys of childhood. You can read more here.

Ukrainian Issues

Ukrainian Commanders Face Criminal Charges
Twenty Eight Ukrainian commanders who are being held responsible for the Russian breakthrough in North Kharkov face criminal charges according to a Ukrainian source.

Mobilization Woes
According to a Ukrainian scientist, Ukraine will need to use women and children to replace men in industry or it will face shortages of basic necessities such as women’s ‘pads’ - according to Sitrep.

Ukraine Dying
According to one Ukrainian source:

Our source reports that in Ukraine the risk of epidemics is growing due to poverty, interruptions in electricity, water supply, sanitation, increased unsanitary conditions, a decline in the quality of housing and communal services, a decline in the quality of medical services (severe personnel shortages), etc. Mortality in the country is at a high level, but this is not the limit. Ukraine under Zelensky is “dying out.”

Ukraine To Legalise Hostage Taking?

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The Minister of Sports in Ukraine has suggested that in order to prevent Ukrainian sportsmen competing overseas from ‘absconding’ - it should be permissible to take their relatives hostage. I’ll say that again: Mr. Bedny is confirming that Ukraine is a terrorist state, employing Nazi-type methods of control over its people who are governed by an illegitimate, incompetent, drug addled hand puppet. This is the ‘democracy’ that the West has become entangled with - to its eternal shame.

Ukraine Poor on Human Rights

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The European Court on Human Rights (ECHR) has received more human rights complaints from Ukrainian citizens than it has from almost any other European country - according to a report in RT. There are currently 8,000 lawsuits pending against Ukraine.

Unit No 110

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This was formally a medical unit charged with dealing with epidemics:

However, in reality it is a special unit of 150-200 medics who have very special skills and receive very specific tasks.

It is believed they were involved in medical experiments and could have committed medical war crimes.

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<snip>

Dam Opened in Kherson
The Ukrainians have opened the locks at the DneprHPP plant. The waters are expected to flood the islands in the Dnepr Delta but will not affect the Zaporizhye Nuclear Power Plant.

Ukrainian Terrorist Attacks (i.e. those that target civilians)
24th/25th May Overnight

According to the Two Majors, Belgorod and Kursk came under attack overnight with MLRS, drones, explosives dropped from drones and missiles - but damage was minimal and no casualties were reported. However, four civilians were injured in the DPR by 155mm cluster shells.

25th/26th May

According to the Military Chronicle:

At night, Belgorod was attacked by R-360 Neptune anti-ship missiles. Previously, the enemy used them only in the Crimea, but the 31st Air Defense Division adapted to them, and their effectiveness was low.

However, MLRS attacks hit houses and cars, killing four and injuring twelve.

26th/27th May

Ten drones were destroyed over Kursk and three over Oryol overnight while two more were destroyed over Belgorod and two over Bryansk. A total of five civilians were injured in Belgorod while at least 20 houses and many cars were damaged while two civilians received injuries in Kursk. Four civilians were also injured in Gorlovka, DPR.

27th/28th May

The governor of Kursk region reported many attacks on villages in the region overnight. There was damage to power lines, residential buildings and cars but no casualties were reported. Many drones were neutralised by electronic means. The LPR suffered a rocket attack with cluster munitions. A number of villages suffered shelling and drone attacks but only one casualty was reported. But in the DPR, six individuals were injured by shelling.

28th/29th May

Overnight, villages in Belgorod and Kursk were attacked by MLRS, shelling and drones. However, damage was minimal and no casualties were reported. Many drones were shot down or disabled by electronic means.

29th/30th May

Many villages in Belgorod came under attack overnight but many ‘aircraft -type’ drones were shot down causing minimal damage and injuring only one civilian. Kursk also suffered shelling and drone attacks with many of the latter being shot down or disabled electronically. Some damage was caused but I have seen no reports of casualties.

30th/31st May

The village of Zozuli in Belgorod was attacked overnight when a kamikaze drone hit a bus carrying agricultural workers. One person was killed and another nine injured. Elsewhere in Belgorod many villages suffered drone attacks which damages houses and injured three civilians. Kursk villages, including Tyotkino, suffered drone attacks causing some damage but no casualties. Strikes on the DPR killed one and injured another two.

<snip>

Russian Missile/Drone Attacks
25th/26th May Overnight

According to the Military Chronicle:

A massive night strike on the airfield in Starokonstantinov is reported. The Armed Forces of Ukraine planned to use it to operate American F-16 fighters. 20 Geranium UAVs and 15 Kh-101, Kh-55 cruise missiles flew at the airfield, as well as polished with three Kinzhals.

Targets were hit in Vinnitsa, Zhitomir, Khmelnitsky, Poltava, Cherkasy and Odessa regions.

26th/27th May Overnight

Russian missiles, including Kinzhals, hit airports at Zaporozhye, Starokonstantinov and Ivano Frankivsk. Geran UAVs destroyed targets in the Vinnytsia, Zhytomyr, Khmelnitsky, Poltava, Cherkasy and Odessa regions. You can read more at Southfront.

28th May

Port infrastructure in Odessa was hit by Iskander missiles, according to the Two Majors.

29th/30 May Overnight

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Starokonstantinov airport in Khmelnitsky was attacked with 5-7 cruise missiles. Vinnitsa, Poltava and Kharkov were also attacked. Slavyangrad provided this report of a massive Russian attack:

This night, enemy targets were attacked by Geran/Shahed attack UAVs. In parallel, at 3am Tu-95 bombers made launches: an hour later missiles began to fly into Ukraine.

▪️ The missile attack lasted 2 hours and the Shahed attack lasted 5 h 30 min;

▪️ missiles maneuvered: they were in Sumy region, Chernigov region, Kiev region, Cherkassy region, Poltava region, Vinnitsa region;

▪️ The AFU airbase Starkonstantinove in Khmelnitschyna was again attacked by both UAVs and missiles.

▪️ Explosions rattled in Poltava, Odessa, Vinnitsa, Dnipropetrovsk and Khmelnitschyna;

▪️ Kharkiv: critical infrastructure was hit, there were wounded. In total, the region was attacked by 8 missiles.


<snip>

North Kharkov

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The Ukrainians have deployed almost seven full brigades to the area of Liptsy - Volchansk which is double that of the Russian forces. Counterattacks from the Ukrainians are expected. On May 26th, Weeb produced this short Sitrep (12 mins) which suggests that the Russians (with 14,000 men) are tempting the Ukrainians (with 38,000 men) into a firetrap in Volchansk. Fierce fighting continued in Volchansk as the week ended.

Kupyansk

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Velyka Novosilka

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On May 31st, according to the Two Majors:

On the Vremyevka ledge, our troops reported successes in Staromayorskoye and Urozhaynoye, as a result of heavy fighting the RFAF advanced for several days in a row.

Chasiv Yar

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Ivanivka was liberated this week along with Bilohorivka and Berestove - according to Weeb. Fighting continues along the eastern outskirts of Chasiv Yar near Kleshcheyevka and Bogdanovka - according to the Two Majors.

Krasnogorovka
According to Sitrep:

RFAF continue to press the Ukrainian defence, and heavy urban fighting is taking place. In the area of Netaylovo, Russian forces have expanded their zone of control south of the settlement and continue to advance towards Karlovka. There are also advances towards Yasnobrodovka, where fighting is taking place at the foot of the settlement.

Avdeyevka
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Map courtesy of Marat Khairullin.

By the end of the week, according to the Two Majors:

West of Avdeyevka, our troops are expanding the zone of control around Netaylovo. In the centre of the front between Umanskoye and Novopokrovskoye, the AFU positions west of Solovyevo have been half-covered, and the RFAF are developing their success.

Zaporozhye
Fighting has intensified south of Shcherbaki - according to the Two Majors. Positional battles continue with the use of long range weapons in the area of Rabotino and northwest of Verbovoye.

<snip>

World Politics

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World Politics Summed Up

Western Idiots - Poor Annalena is So Hurt

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I really do not empathise - just get over it dear!

Green German Foreign Minister, Annalena Bärbock has said that she is ‘incredibly hurt’ by the Georgian government’s decision to pass a law which will oblige Western backed NGOs to register with the government. This law, similar to one that the US has in place, would prevent foreign agencies from having unwanted influence in the country. But why should the passing of a law cause Annalena to be hurt as if this is something personal to her. Could this be yet another example of the Woke mentality?

Western backed political activists have been demonstrating violently hard against this bill in Georgia and I wouldn’t mind betting that many have been paid for their endeavours. The President vetoed the Bill - prompting the Prime Minister to call her a traitor - but the democratic parliament has backed it. I will not comment other than to say - if it’s good enough for the US: it’s good enough for Georgia.

No Taurus Missiles to Ukraine - Scholz
Last week I referred to Stephen Bryen’s claim that all Western weapons systems going to Ukraine will be accompanied by Western operators. German Chancellor Scholz has provided support for this view in declaring that Taurus missiles will not be sent to Ukraine because they must be operated by German crews - and sending German crews to Ukraine would make them participants ‘in this confrontation’ - according to Slavyangrad. However, since Scholz has changed his mind about Western missiles attacking Russian territory, he may have changed his mind on this.

(Much more at link.)

https://robcampbell.substack.com/p/ukra ... update-1f6
"There is great chaos under heaven; the situation is excellent."

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Re: Footnotes from the Ukrainian "Crisis"; New High-Points in Cynicism Part V

Post by blindpig » Mon Jun 03, 2024 12:11 pm

The importance of Andriy Ermak
POSTED BY @NSANZO ⋅ 06/03/2024

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“If the highest credential of the actor and comedian Volodymyr Zelensky when he was elected in 2019 was that he had played a president on television, the highest qualification of his all-powerful chief of staff, Andriy Ermak, was to be a friend of Zelensky,” writes The Washington Post in his recent report on the right hand of the Ukrainian president, possibly the man who concentrates the most power in his hands in today's Ukraine in which the Office of the President has practically replaced, in terms of decision-making, the powers executive and legislative. “War conditions, including the state of emergency, have concentrated extraordinary authority in the presidential administration, turning Ermak into the most powerful chief of staff in the country's history, practically indistinguishable from his boss,” the outlet admits to describe to the man in the shadows, the green cardinal , a figure who never appeared on the electoral lists, but who currently has a power that even his allies see as equivalent to that of a head of state with expanded powers due to the war situation.

“Recently, critics say, as Zelensky's circle of advisers has narrowed, Ermak has sidelined the Foreign Ministry, interfered in military decisions and negotiated key deals with partners, including the United States, a task that, in his opinion, the president should be in charge of,” explains The Washington Post in its extensive report published two days before Volodymyr Zelensky's constitutional mandate expired. The legal loophole between the ban on holding elections during martial law and the expiration of the mandate has left Zelensky and his team exposed to claims of illegitimacy now coming from Russia. The support of his main constituency, Western leaders and leaders, means that the issue will not be a problem for the current president, especially taking into account the pro-Ukrainian propaganda load of the media coverage on the matter.

The Ukrainian president also benefits from the two years in which his figure has been equated with the voice of the Ukrainian people. The epic of the president, who, as BCC suggested in Russian, does not need to hold elections, since there is no figure who could overshadow him, hides authoritarian tendencies that have separated, demonized or even expelled from the country any figure who aspired to do so. This has happened with Zaluzhny, whom polls showed as a potential candidate to defeat Zelensky, dismissed and removed; Medvedchuk, accused in a politically fabricated case, detained, humiliated and finally handed over to Russia and even Poroshenko, accused in the same case.

“The Ukrainian Constitution prohibits elections under martial law. But as long as Zelensky remains in office, he will be vulnerable to accusations that he has used the war to erode democracy, seizing control of the media, marginalizing critics and rivals, and elevating his unelected friend Yermak. above career officials and diplomats,” explains The Washington Post to summarize the uncomfortable situation in which it finds itself when it comes to defending Zelensky, whose democratic credentials decline as time progresses without any intention to convene elections or request a qualified opinion from the Constitutional Court. This option to save the president from accusations of illegitimacy was never viable, since Zelensky's confrontation with the institution and his attempt to control it date back to the first years of the president's mandate, who practically since coming to power sought to accumulate power. in an increasingly narrow circle of people.

“Yermak's closeness to the president – ​​and his evident influence over him – has provoked a barrage of accusations: that he has undemocratically consolidated power in the president's office; that he has overseen an unnecessary purge of senior officials, including the commander in chief, General Valery Zaluzhny; that he has restricted access to Zelensky; and that he has sought personal control over almost all important decisions in wartime,” the article admits, which, however, forgets that these authoritarian tendencies in the Ukrainian president's environment predate the Russian invasion. Taking advantage of the facilities provided by martial law to further limit freedom of expression, assembly and even thought, the Ukrainian president has raised the stakes in the political centralization of the country around a small circle led with a firm hand by Andriy Ermak, vice president de facto and questioned for representing the authoritarian tendencies of the moment. “Some of these accusations are indisputable,” The Washington Post is forced to accept , which only mentions a small part of Zelesnky's acts that, if committed by an opponent of the United States, would be described as dictatorial. “Under a decree issued by Zelensky shortly after the Russian invasion in February 2022, six major television networks have been broadcasting the same news content 24 hours a day, the so-called United News Telethon, which critics say has silenced dissidence," he explains without remembering that the banning of political parties, blocking of media broadcasts, harassment of social movements or members of any type of non-nationalist opposition - especially the left-wing and very particularly communist - comes from the times of peace , when a large part of the Ukrainian population could still ignore the war that existed in a part of their country. Zelensky and his squire Ermak have only taken advantage of the advantages of the state of emergency to normalize practices that, in reality, never bothered their allies excessively, especially the European Union, which continues to present the situation of press freedom as one of the aspects in which kyiv has met the demands and expectations of Brussels.

In that game, in which the position of no minister is safe, including those who got the position not because of their training but because of their friendship with the president, Andriy Ermak has become the most important person. Already in 2022, Ukrainska Pravda published a profile of Zelensky's lawyer friend who had seized all power in the President's Office and who acted de facto as vice president. However, it is now that Zelensky's legitimacy has been called into question - as demonstrated by the number of articles that are being published these days defending the Ukrainian president from the accusations - that they acquire greater relevance. “The president has no environment. There is a person who influences the president's decisions. There is no one else,” a veteran Ukrainian officer is quoted as saying by The Washington Post . Ermak's influence is, according to that source, “monopolistic.”

The importance of defending Zelensky at this time is greater considering that Western sources are considering the current moment in the war critical. “Russia has been trying for decades to sow internal divisions in Ukraine to destabilize the country and, according to experts, the Kremlin will not miss the opportunity to exploit accusations that Zelensky abuses power. And no one embodies the power of Zelensky's office better than Ermak,” writes The Washington Post with an argument that, always blaming mainly Russia, points to a certain ambiguity about the Ukrainian president's environment. “His credibility is falling,” a Ukrainian official quoted by the outlet alleges in reference to Zelensky, “because Ermak's actions are constantly reflected on the president.” The article, which, despite being absurd, repeatedly mentions the accusations of a “Russian agent” that have been leveled against Zelensky's right-hand man, is deeply legitimizing, although it opens the door to blaming Ermak for the excesses of the moment. This is a way of exonerating the president by putting the responsibilities on one of his subordinates, reminiscent of the Nord Stream case. Even then the president could not be accused of possible Ukrainian participation in the attack. The same media that now defend Zelensky's legitimacy although they open the door to admitting authoritarianism in his right hand denied knowledge of the president and pointed to Valery Zaluzhny, already in transition between the figure of military hero that was created in 2022 and the fallen angel that he would lose his position, possibly at the behest of Andriy Ermak, at the end of 2023.

However, Ermak, who according to the article “has established a global portfolio, acting as a key liaison with many foreign officials,” still has defenders in high places close to the Biden administration, the only truly important audience for the Ukrainian government. “In a way, he is the de facto prime minister, foreign minister and chief of staff,” admits former diplomat Michael McFaul, who does so not as a criticism but to affirm, despite criticism on the matter, that “I think it is quite effective in his work.” Ermak “denies having invaded the foreign minister's powers, but also said that the war has shown him that “classical diplomacy may be over” and that “some of our ambassadors do not work hard enough,” writes The Washington Post. , again showing an openly authoritarian attitude on the part of an unelected member of the president's entourage who claims to be fighting for democracy and against authoritarianism.

Without any possibility of opening diplomatic channels to resolve the conflict, the only path remains war, which by definition prevents the holding of elections that formally legitimize the Ukrainian president and his team. The absence of elections, censorship, forced recruitment, the concentration of power and increasingly authoritarian rhetoric can make difficult, in the long run, that discourse of democracy against autocracy that so easily settled into the collective consciousness in 2022. But It is also not ruled out that the West, with the help of the media machinery, looks for a scapegoat to blame for Zelensky's sins. For this, there is no one better than the advisor who has accumulated excessive power, who pushed the hero Zaluzhny aside and who can easily be blamed for the failures of his boss. It does not seem a coincidence that The Washington Post mentions the origin of his mother, born in St. Petersburg, or the former job of his father, an intelligence officer at the embassy in Kabul. The fact that the media does not mention the moment indicates that it is about the war years, in which officer Ermak and the proxies defended by the West were on opposite sides. The Washington Post , like other media, takes this information as true, which Ermak describes as a rumor of which he accuses Russia.

Future risks exist, although the present remains important for Ermak, who continues his efforts to create a Ukrainian lobby to fight for the country's demands. The “Ermak-Rassmusen working group” is dedicated to this, one of the many public relations initiatives organized by the head of the President's Office and which has the former Secretary General of NATO as the main lobbyist. In its latest report, the task force proposes to “strengthen the efforts of Ukraine and its allies aimed at preventing Russian operational success on land, sea and air, eliminate all limitations on the types of conventional weapons supplied to Ukraine and, what more importantly, how they can be used against military targets in Russia.” In the 19 hours a day that Ermak claims to work, the head of the President's Office performs numerous tasks, although the most important is creating discourse and imposing a narrative that allows Ukraine to demand more from its partners. The task force report calls for being able to use Western weapons against targets in Russia, something Western countries have already accepted. However, they have done so with limitations. Just a few hours after it was confirmed that Ukraine has the green light to attack military targets in areas of Russia near Kharkiv, Volodymyr Zelensky insisted that it is not enough. Ermak will soon ensure that the new demands are the center of Ukrainian discourse.

https://slavyangrad.es/2024/06/03/la-im ... riy-ermak/

Google Translator

*******

From Cassad's telegram account:

Colonelcassad
Summary of the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation (as of June 3, 2024) The main thing:

The North group of troops defeated three brigades of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, repelled 5 counterattacks, enemy losses per day amounted to 215 military personnel;

— The air defense system shot down 67 UAVs, a Neptune missile, a Patriot missile, and four Hammer bombs in one day;

— The forces of the Russian group of troops “Vostok” occupied more advantageous positions within 24 hours and destroyed up to 140 Ukrainian Armed Forces;

— The “West” group of troops occupied more advantageous positions, the Ukrainian Armed Forces in its area of ​​​​responsibility lost up to 435 military personnel;

— The southern group of troops has improved the situation along the front line, the Ukrainian Armed Forces in its area of ​​​​responsibility have lost up to more than 310 military personnel;

— The Russian Armed Forces, during a special military operation, hit manpower and equipment of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in 188 districts within 24 hours;

— The Dnepr group of troops defeated two Ukrainian brigades.

Operational-tactical aviation, unmanned aerial vehicles, missile forces and artillery from groupings of troops of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation defeated concentrations of enemy manpower and military equipment in 118 regions.

▫️Air defense systems destroyed 67 unmanned aerial vehicles, and also shot down: a Neptune anti-ship missile, four Hammer guided aerial bombs made in France, an anti-aircraft missile of the Patriot complex made in the USA and 19 HIMARS missiles made in the USA and Alder.

📊In total, since the beginning of the special military operation, the following have been destroyed: 609 aircraft, 274 helicopters, 25,081 unmanned aerial vehicles, 526 anti-aircraft missile systems, 16,236 tanks and other armored combat vehicles, 1,328 combat vehicles of multiple launch rocket systems, 10,057 field artillery guns and mortars, as well as 22237 units of special military vehicles

https://t.me/s/boris_rozhin

Google Translator

********

First strike capable: why Russia is indifferent to damage to one or another ground based radar installation

Ladies and gentlemen, let me open this discussion with an out-of-the-box explanation as to why Russia appears to be laid back over the destruction of one of its early warning radar installations in the south of the country and undetermined damage to another during the past week. This, while the Western mainstream media speak of severe impairment to Russia’s defenses and some military experts in the USA publish denunciations of the Biden administration for exposing the country to nuclear attack from Russia caused by false positives on their monitors that arise in the final minutes of a supposed attack due to the absence of suitable ground radar to double check what the inadequate Russian satellite warning system tells them.

The fundamental issue, as I see it, was flagged long ago when President Putin said that Russia responds in an asymmetric manner to whatever challenges the US and allied militaries present. Washington pulled out of the treaty on ABMs under George W. Bush thereby undermining the foundations of nuclear deterrence and the Russians then headed off in their own direction to find and implement a devastating counter-measure.

As it turns out, Russia’s IT geniuses who went abroad in the Yeltsin years to set up Google and other wonderful and powerful corporations in Silicon Valley serving primarily the consumer sector did not drain Russia of its brainpower. Indeed, more than enough patriotic IT geniuses remained in country to provide Mr. Putin and the country at large with an adequate talent pool to engineer and produce what, 22 years later, we recognize as world-beating Russian defense systems.

No one in the West talks about the implications of what the Russians have developed and in particular what it means in the present context of concern that the poor, blinded Russians do not get early warning of a nuclear attack. Let me say it out loud: the Russians have first nuclear strike capability thanks to their newly introduced Sarmat missiles carrying smaller, unstoppable hypersonic missiles as payload. A fully loaded Sarmat can level to the ground a country the size of the UK; several of them can fairly well erase the USA from the map. In addition the Russians have short to medium range hypersonic missiles that can be launched from frigates 400 km off America’s shores. And they are working on a nuclear torpedo (Poseidon) that alone can take out entire cities in the tsunamis they create.

What this means is that there is a good probability that when push comes to shove, when their intelligence reports the concentration of nuclear cruise and ballistic armed US submarines in the Arabian Gulf for example, when their satellites tell them about missile concentrations in Western, Central and Eastern Europe that have an ominous message, they will threaten and possibly carry out a devastating first strike against the USA, which as they say openly, is the puppet master not only in Ukraine but in all of Western Europe.

The second argument for not looking down our noses at the Russian military for failing to have an equivalent to the US global missile launch detection capability is the investment the Russians have made in building their own version of Iron Domes to protect major cities, and presumably, major military infrastructure from U.S. nuclear attack.

Two days ago I understood what that means when listening to Great Game host Vyacheslav Nikonov talk about the attacks the day before (29 May) using U.S. ATACMS long range missiles fired from Ukraine against the area of the Kerch bridge and other targets deep in Russia.

See the opening minutes of this 46 minute segment of the program: https://rutube.ru/video/ef8865c65715365 ... 72c5ae5ac/

Note that these attacks took place a day before President Biden officially announced U.S. acquiescence in Kiev’s intentions to strike inside Russia. The Biden team gave assurances that the weapons would be used exclusively against militarily valuable targets. The Kerch bridge to Crimea, of course, is now purely civilian infrastructure given that all Russian military deliveries to the front have long been redirected to land-based rail lines running parallel to the Sea of Azov that the Russians have expanded over the past year.

The point made by Nikonov is that all of these missiles were shot down by Russian air defense systems. An invited expert informed the audience that the American missiles have their weak spots which the Russians are exploring and exploiting to destroy them in the air.

This does not mean that Russian air defense is 100% reliable. But it means that as regards missiles of all kinds it does a great job. That contrasts, of course, with defense against the much harder to find smaller and more maneuverable incoming drones, which were the weapon of choice in the Ukrainian attack on Russian radar installations. But drones do not destroy cities and kill hundreds of thousands if not millions of people. Missiles do that.

On the same day, 4 – 6 unmanned British cutters valued at 6 million dollars each which were sent against Russian Black Sea vessels were destroyed by the Russian side.

These latest U.S. and British guided attacks were said to be proof that the U.S. led West now understands perfectly well that Ukraine is facing defeat and are doing what they can to raise the stakes. The F16s soon to be introduced into the conflict will be another major escalation by the West. They will be treated by Russia as a NATO nuclear armed task force to contain Russia. The French led effort to put together a coalition of providers of instructors on the ground in Ukraine is still another dimension of the very dangerous ongoing escalation.

Note: Nikonov and his panelists discussed these existential threats in calm and deliberate manner. None is certain how the Kremlin will respond to a successful attack nominally delivered by Ukraine but de facto Western-guided. Perhaps there will be a massive Russian attack made on the city of Kiev.

*****

I truly wonder what is the benefit of having a 15 minute advance warning of an incoming missile attack if, as is 100% certain, an automatic ‘Dead Hand’ launch has already been scripted. Moreover, what would be the sense of lifting the handset of a Red Phone to Washington to speak to….whom? Biden, Sullivan or any other of the liars and card cheats who populate the top echelons of the federal government? Not a trustworthy person among them with whom you would risk the fate of your nation.

The overriding message I wish to convey is that Americans have forgotten their old folk wisdom that “there are many different ways to skin a cat.” Experts in America’s dissident underground can be just as unwilling to comprehend that Russians are not weak and stupid as American generals and their minions in the press were saying when they denounced Russia’s opening moves in its Special Military Operation for failing to do what America does in such instances: use a Shock and Awe campaign to murder everyone and destroy everything in its path.

©Gilbert Doctorow, 2024

https://gilbertdoctorow.com/2024/06/01/ ... tallation/

*******

Biden Authorizes Ukraine to Make “Limited” Strikes on Russia With US Weapons
Posted on May 31, 2024 by Yves Smith

As the pundit classes have been consumed with the implications of the 34 count conviction of Donald Trump in New York, the Biden Administration has authorized crossing a big Russia red line, that of using US (and other foreign) weapons to hit targets in Russia. The New York Times’ version of the decision:

The decision by the Biden administration to allow Ukraine to strike inside Russia with American-made weapons fulfills a long-held wish by officials in Kyiv that they claimed was essential to level the playing field
.
The shift in policy followed declarations from nearly a dozen European governments and Canada that their weapons could be used to fire into Russia.

Freed from those constraints, Ukraine can strike into Russia with SCALP missiles from France and, potentially soon, the identical Storm Shadow missiles supplied by Britain. Although the British foreign minister, David Cameron, said on May 3 that Ukraine should be able to attack Russia with Western weapons, London has not yet given its full permission…

The SCALP and Storm Shadow missiles have a range of about 150 miles and are fired from Ukraine’s aging fleet of Soviet-designed fighter jets.

Several countries — Britain, Germany, Norway and the United States — have given Ukraine ground-based launchers that can fire longer-range missiles. Those systems are known as HIMARS and MLRS launchers, and they can also shoot the American-made Army Tactical Missile Systems, or ATACMS, which have a range of up to 190 miles.

However, in disclosing the new policy, U.S. officials said their policy would not permit the use of ATACMS or long-range missiles that can strike deep into Russia. Germany also has so far refused to donate its Taurus missile, with a range of 310 miles, in part out of concern that it would be fired deep into Russia and escalate the war. It is now even less likely to do so, Rafael Loss, a weapons expert at the European Council on Foreign Relations, said in an interview on Thursday.

Additionally, Britain, Canada and the United States have supplied Ukraine with medium-range missiles or ground-based small diameter bombs that can reach into Russia from 50 to 90 miles away.
But the new authorizations may have their greatest impact in the war for air superiority — especially if the allies allow their donated jets and drones to attack within Russia’s air space.

On Friday, the Dutch foreign minister said Ukraine could use the 24 F-16 fighter jets that the Netherlands has pledged to fly into Russian territory on war missions.


And from a Politico exclusive, Biden secretly gave Ukraine permission to strike inside Russia with US weapons (note the Times does not credit Politico and Politico oddly has this story way below the fold):

The Biden administration has quietly given Ukraine permission to strike inside Russia — solely near the area of Kharkiv — using U.S.-provided weapons, three U.S. officials and two other people familiar with the move said Thursday, a major reversal that will help Ukraine to better defend its second-largest city.

If I were cynical, I would see this as a pretext of more of the same elsewhere. Putin said Russia has no immediate designs on Kharkiv. Kharkiv is a big sprawling city. Taking it would require a lot of resources. Zelensky nevertheless seems to have devoted an excessive amount of his dwindling resources to defending it, when Russia would be better served to bypass it for now if it wanted to move further into Ukraine, say to cut more supply lines. If Russia wanted to increase the intensity of the war and accelerate the attrition, the more obvious way would be to elongate the front even further by moving forces into Sumy. Russia may have even planned to do so but is now holding back to see how the latest episode of NATO derangement plays out.

Keep in mind that the pretense that these are somehow Ukraine weapons because they are being allocated to Ukraine for use is a canard. Ukraine depends on its Western backers for targeting information. Most experts believe that even the operation is done substantially if not entirely by little green men from the Collective West. These are complex systems and it’s not plausible that Ukrainian soldiers could have been trained to a level to deploy them independently. Putin addressed the issue long-form in an interview earlier this week, suggesting that NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg must have developed dementia to suggest otherwise. He also warned that this move could stoke a “world wide conflict” as in Russia might respond by striking US military assets in other theaters.

I don’t know what the US is trying to achieve by playing this half pregnant game. On the one hand, Russia has been able to take down most long-range missiles thrown at it. For instance, Alexander Mercouris yesterday cited a fresh Ministry of Defense report that Ukraine had fired 8 ATACMS missiles at Crimea and Russia had shot all of them down. That does not mean there was not collateral damage from the falling missile or anti-aircraft missiles. And as Mercouris likes to stress, this is a game of odds, with some missiles like to get through now and again.

On the one hand, the Times included the Dutch F-16s in its weapons list. That should actually be reassuring to the Russians as an empty threat. Scott Ritter has said that any pilot who flew them against Russia has only 20% odds of returning alive. They would be detected almost immediately upon takeoff and aggressively targeted. F-16s also require golf green runaways to take off. Ukraine does not have any that are up to snuff and Russia would quickly strike any runways that Ukraine managed to bring up to the needed standard. That then lead to the next issue, that Russia has said that any country that launches an attack against Russia, and that would include allowing pretend Ukraine F-16s to take off from airbases in Poland or Romania, would put that country at war with Russia and subject it to return strikes. It does not appear that Romania or Poland have yet decided to go there.

On the other, if NATO members in the guise of being Ukraine do hit something non-trivial in Russia, and odds favor that happening, what does Russia do then? Even though some have criticized Russian forbearance as a sign of weakness, I would hazard that Russia, and many of its allies, recognize that the US is run by reckless incompetents who act as if nuclear war is no big deal. Admittedly, Aurelian in his must-read NATO’s Phantom Armies has explained long-form that NATO is institutionally incapable of mounting any kind of meaningful operation against Russia even if it could get out of its own underwear (although Auerlien did not consider a less awkward “coalition of the willing”). But the western powers are still woefully short of men and weapons. And NATO’s or a NATO subset’s disparate weapons systems creates a logistical nightmare.

So a conventional military escalation is self-limiting even if it were attempted. The risk is nuclear war, say the US trundling a submarine over to Russia’s east coast and thinking it would be a dandy idea to lob a tactical nuke into Siberia. This bunch is loony enough to do that.

I don’t think Russia will need to do anything unless and until one of these newly authorized weapons does real damage in Russia. Failed attempts work to Russia’s advantage even if they are nervous-making. But if the West were to land a blow, Russia’s best move, despite the gratification of making a tit-for-tat response and hitting a NATO target, would be to greatly accelerate its destruction of the Ukraine electrical system. Russia probably by now has several variants worked out. Destroying more of the grid now would of course make a lot of military operations more difficult, and would increase the movement of refugees into Europe, which would in particular not make Polish citizens very happy.

Needless to say, at this point, all we can do is speculate about yet another dangerous escalation that (assuming no nuclear war) won’t change the outcome of the war. So keep watching what transpires.

_______

1 From the Kremlin website:

With regard to the strikes, frankly, I am not sure what the NATO Secretary General is talking about. When he was the Prime Minister of Norway, we communicated and addressed challenging issues concerning the Barents Sea and other issues, and generally, we were able to come to terms, and I am positive he was not suffering from dementia back then. If he is talking about potentially attacking Russia’s territory with long-range precision weapons, he, as a person who heads a military-political organisation, even though he is a civilian like me, should be aware of the fact that long-range precision weapons cannot be used without space-based reconnaissance. This is my first point.

My second point is that the final target selection and what is known as launch mission can only be made by highly skilled specialists who rely on this reconnaissance data, technical reconnaissance data. For some attack systems, such as Storm Shadow, these launch missions can be put in automatically, without the need to use Ukrainian military. Who does it? Those who manufacture and those who allegedly supply these attack systems to Ukraine do. This can and does happen without the participation of the Ukrainian military. Launching other systems, such as ATACMS, for example, also relies on space reconnaissance data, targets are identified and automatically communicated to the relevant crews that may not even realise what exactly they are putting in. A crew, maybe even a Ukrainian crew, then puts in the corresponding launch mission. However, the mission is put together by representatives of NATO countries, not the Ukrainian military.

So, these officials from NATO countries, especially the ones based in Europe, particularly in small European countries, should be fully aware of what is at stake. They should keep in mind that theirs are small and densely populated countries, which is a factor to reckon with before they start talking about striking deep into the Russian territory. It is a serious matter and, without a doubt, we are watching this very carefully.

The focus is on the developments on the outskirts of Kharkov. But they were the ones to provoke those events. I made it clear publicly, I think it was six months ago, that if they continue to target residential neighbourhoods, we will have to create a security area. Not long ago, we started doing what I said back then…..

Are they looking for a global conflict? I think they wanted to agree upon strategic arms, but we do not really see them being really eager to do so. They are talking about it but are not doing much to make it happen. We will wait and see what happens next.

https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2024/05 ... apons.html

War Against Russia: What Does the Collective West Want?
Posted by INTERNATIONALIST 360° on JUNE 1, 2024
Quantum Bird

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What does the collective west want?

I doubt that any rational interlocutor knows exactly. The rhetoric and actions of the “leadership” of the Collective West, Israel included, are not consistent with any trace of an instinct for self-preservation, either as elites or as a species. The imminent but long-anticipated defeat in Ukraine is graphically exposing the collective cognitive dissonance of the Western elites, who, unable to confront the reality of the end of their 500-year imperial reign, are now literally playing Russian roulette with a fully loaded revolver – of nukes – aimed at their temples. And the first round is theirs.

The unprecedented, and apparently probative, attacks on the defensive infrastructure of Russia’s strategic nuclear triad – the long-range radars of the early warning system responsible for detecting nuclear missile launches against Russia – and the mobilization of various NATO actors publicly and tacitly endorsing the use of medium- and long-range missiles to attack targets deep in Russian territory, can lead to nothing other than symmetrical retaliation.

Don’t be fooled for a second. US arms sales contracts are extremely restrictive in terms of the uses and targets that can be engaged by these systems. Basically, it is up to the US, as a last resort, to authorize the use of ATACMS and F-16 fighters to attack Russia. Contractually, none of its NATO vassals has the autonomy to decide on this. Thus, the line-up of European leaders – suicidal imbeciles – who are declaring their intention to allow “their fighters and other armaments” to be used to attack Russian territory is nothing more than pathetic staging, perhaps with the aim of attaching some kind of geopolitical relevance to Europe, which lately is not even mentioned as a political entity at meetings of the Global South.

Russian military doctrine is quite clear on the selection of targets for retaliatory attacks on Russian territory by proxies under the command of primary actors. The principals and their proxies will be targeted. But the latest developments add rather unfavorable nuances for the collective West. The Ukrainian army is deprived of manpower and strategic offensive potential, so it is up to NATO to provide the Ukrainian forces on the ground with tactics, and this includes target selection and the provision of “advisors” for the operation of various offensive systems. In other words, with their latest declarations, Germany, France, England, Denmark, Poland and so on have just dropped the facade.

Russian military doctrine is quite clear on the selection of targets for retaliatory attacks on Russian territory by proxies under the command of primary actors. The principals and their proxies will be targeted. But the latest developments add rather unfavorable nuances for the collective West. The Ukrainian army is deprived of manpower and strategic offensive potential, so it is up to NATO to provide the Ukrainian forces on the ground with tactics, and this includes target selection and the provision of “advisors” for the operation of various offensive systems. In other words, with their latest statements, Germany, France, England, Denmark, Poland, etc., have just abandoned the facade of providing mercenaries and advisors to the Ukrainian army and have officially positioned themselves as direct operators of attacks against the pre-2014 territory of the Russian Federation. They have thus managed to implicate themselves as both the masterminds and the executors. A big red target is now drawn on each of their foreheads, and there is no address that a Zircon or Kinzhal cannot soon visit in Europe.

As for the US, as expected, they haven’t yet decided whether or not to approve the use of their systems to attack deep Russia.Perhaps they never will.Could this be an elaborate ploy to throw Europeans under the Russian train for good, in an attempt to generalize the conflict in Ukraine to the whole of Europe, in order to achieve Russia’s long-awaited strategic exhaustion?At the end of the day, Biden still needs to be re-elected.Attracting Russian strategic nuclear missiles to US cities or putting the numerous US military bases around the world on red alert doesn’t seem like a very promising electoral strategy.

The crucial point that the leadership of the collective West seems to ignore is that, from the Russian perspective, there is a great distance between turning Europe into a pile of radioactive ash and simply increasing security around the infrastructure of Russia’s strategic defense systems, while accelerating the dismemberment of Ukraine to deny the ground for NATO’s games. Suffice it to note that the only popular European leaders are those who oppose Europe’s involvement in Ukraine and the development of hostilities against Russia.

The crucial point that the leadership of the collective West seems to ignore is that, from the Russian perspective, there is a great distance between turning Europe into a pile of radioactive ash and simply increasing security around the infrastructure of Russia’s strategic defense systems, while accelerating the dismemberment of Ukraine to deny the ground for NATO’s games. Suffice it to note that the only popular European leaders are those who oppose Europe’s involvement in Ukraine and the development of hostilities against Russia.

Which raises a second question: what will Russia’s reaction be?

It’s hard to predict, but the Russian government is not inert. The Russians are preparing for everything. Russia is updating and consolidating its alliances and strategic partnerships in the CIS and SCO. The recognition of the Taliban government in Afghanistan opens a can of worms for the US.

In any case, the Global South is watching everything and taking notes. Now, the irrationality, irresponsibility and discredit of the leadership of the Collective West are its hallmarks. And considering the economic degradation and domestic tensions in NATO members, we will probably witness riots and lynchings of some of these “leaders” before a nuclear artifact is detonated.

Dmitry Medvedev: A Warning to the West

Western countries that have supposedly “approved the use” of their long-range weapons on Russian territory (regardless of whether we are talking about old or new parts of our country) should clearly understand the following:

1. All their military equipment and specialists fighting against us will be destroyed both on the territory of b. Ukraine, as well as on the territory of other countries, if from there strikes are made on the territory of Russia.
2. Russia assumes that all long-range means of destruction used by b. Ukraine are already directly controlled today. Ukraine are already directly controlled by NATO military personnel. This is not “military assistance”, but participation in the war against us. And their actions may well become casus belli.
3. NATO will have to decide how to qualify the consequences of possible retaliatory strikes against equipment/objects/military personnel of individual countries of the bloc in the context of Articles 4 and 5 of the Washington Treaty.

In all likelihood, the NATO leadership wants to pretend that we are talking about sovereign decisions of individual countries of the North Atlantic Alliance to support the Kiev regime, and that there is no reason to apply the rule of the 1949 Treaty on Collective Self-Defense.

These are dangerous and harmful misconceptions. Such “individualized assistance” by NATO countries against Russia, whether by commandeering its long-range cruise missiles or sending a contingent of troops to Ukraine, is a serious escalation of the conflict. The former Ukraine and its NATO allies will receive a response of such destructive force that the Alliance itself simply cannot resist getting involved in the conflict.

And no matter how much retired NATO farts talk about how Russia will never use non-strategic nuclear weapons against former Ukraine and even less against individual NATO countries. Ukraine and even more so against individual NATO countries, life is much scarier than their frivolous musings.

A few years ago they were saying that Russia would not go to an open military conflict with the Banderite regime in order not to quarrel with the West. They miscalculated. There is a war.

They may also miscalculate with the use of TNWs. Although it will be a fatal mistake. After all, as the President of Russia rightly noted, European countries have a very high population density. And for those enemy countries whose lands are beyond the TNW coverage zone, there is, finally, a strategic potential.

And this, alas, is neither intimidation nor nuclear bluff. The current military conflict with the West is developing according to the worst possible scenario. There is a constant escalation of the power of applicable NATO weapons. Therefore, no one can rule out the transition of the conflict to its final stage today.


https://libya360.wordpress.com/2024/06/ ... west-want/

******

War of all against the mobilization office

Hare Krishna to the front, suicides and suicide attempts, knives, grenades and pepper spray

EVENTS IN UKRAINE
JUN 01, 2024

Hare Krishna Hare Krishna

The government has made it clear that religious reasons won’t not allow Ukrainians to avoid military service. On May 30, the director of the Ukrainian Helsinki Group on Human Rights, Oleksandr Pavlichenko, stated in an interview with telegraph that religious convictions will not be considered by a court of law as legitimate reason to evade service.

As if to prove that, members of the Hare Krishna group were mobilized in the Zakarpatya region on the same day. The videos of the believers getting mobilized and then in the mobilization office speak for themselves.

(Videos at link.)

In the western Chernivtsi region, a man used pepper spray against mobilization officers on May 31. This was reported on the facebook page of the regional police. The man inflicted injuries on the mobilization officers and was handed in to the police.

In the eastern city of Dnepropetrovsk/Dnepr, unknown men attacked a military medic sitting in his car (May 18). He was mistaken for mobilization officers (TCC). He was beaten and sprayed with pepper spray. The attackers yelled ‘TCC faggot’. His minibus resembled those infamously used by mobilization officers.

In Kremenchug, a mobilization bus was found burnt on May 31. The white cross is the the AFU sign. It was clearly burnt while parked.

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An F-1 grenade was thrown at the house belonging to a mobilization inspector in Cherkassy region early morning on May 31. It exploded and damaged the house but not any of the inhabitants. The culprit has not been identified.

On May 18, a man attacked a mobilization officer with a knife in the Dnepro region. Commenting the incident, the AFU on its facebook page blamed the obvious culprits:

crime occurred precisely under the influence of Rascist propaganda media resources, which spread false information about the 'illegality of the TCC', 'illegitimacy' of the authorities' actions regarding military registration and notification, 'illegality' of handing out summonses, etc., and about the 'non-obligation' to fulfill the constitutional duty to protect the homeland in general.

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On March 23, a 50 year old man attacked a mobilization officer with a knife in the western Volhyn region, leading to serious injuries. It happened then TCC officers came to his home to demand why he hadn’t responded to summonses.

Suicides

Knives aren’t only being used against TCC officers. In Kiev, a young man (Stanlislav Moskovskyi) was captured by TCC officers, beaten, imprisoned all night, was not allowed to call a lawyer, and had his personal items removed. He was forced to take a medical exam in the nearby neighborhood of Vishneve.

Moskovskiy was then told by the TCC officers that the medical exam had shown he was fit to serve and would soon join the army. Following that news, he opened his veins with a knife. To solve the problem, the TCC officers dumped him by the road. Which is where his lawyer eventually found him.

He managed to survive, and his lawyer has opened a case against the officers on the basis of ‘pushing to suicide’. His and his lawyer note that already before his encounter with the TCC, Moskowskiy struggled with serious psychological problems. The TCC office denies responsibility and accuses him of running away from his responsibilities.

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The director of Kiev’s no.81 school killed herself on May 28, throwing herself out of a window.

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Galina Todosova, an education official, gave the following context:

Tatyana Vladimirovna's son was mobilized and immediately sent to Mykolaiv. She took it very close to heart, very close. She even took leave because she couldn't think about work.

Social media users also speculated that a shocking event in April 22 at her school could have also played a role. A 13 year old boy was brutally beaten by his peers. Some social media reports claimed that it was because he was watching a Russian-language cartoon.

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He tried to hide the injuries from his mother for 10 days, but eventually she found out because of his hugely swollen right leg. He had also been kicked badly in the groin. His mother stated the following - He has already undergone surgery because he had a hematoma, hydrocele of the testicle, and a rupture of the testicle's membrane.

Corruption and demoralization

Yet another leader of the Odessa regional TCC has been fired. On May 31, Oleksandr Okhrimenko was fired from his position. In 2023, the previous head of the Odessa regional TCC was arrested, Evgeniy Borisov. He was accused of large scale corruption and his court case continues.

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Borisov at his last arrest. Looking characteristically Odessan, black sea mafia.

Top militar(ist) journalist Butusov complained about the incompetency of mobilized soldiers on 28 May. In his words, during the battles for Volchansk, more than 100 men were sent as reinforcements to the 125th Brigade of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. However, it turned out that these people were unfit for service, and only three of them were enlisted in the brigade, although reports at all levels already stated that "the brigade is being well replenished."

AFU major Serhiy Alimov expressed a similar opinion in a May 26 interview with top Ukrainian journalist Natalia Mosiychuk. He stated that mobilized men don’t want to fight and only make things more difficult.

"People from the TCC minibuses come to our trench, and what are we supposed to do with them? He says, 'I won't go.' Now in the training centers, they stand and also say, 'I won't go,'

The officer mentioned that the TCC began using the practice of sending military commissioners from one region to another.

"The Odessa TCC gang came to Drohobych. They got drunk somewhere in the evening and started to boss everyone around. They called the police, who came, looked around, and left. Soon, no one will show up for service. The streets will be as empty as they were in 2022,"

Alimov claimed that due to the actions of the TCC, military personnel are trying not to wear their uniforms in the capital to avoid being mistaken for mobilization officers.

"All this will end with a new Vradiyivka," Alimov stated. This refers to the riot in 2013 in the Mykolaiv region after police officers raped a girl, an event which played an important role in feeding public resentment and distrust in law enforcement in the leadup to the 2014 euromaidan.

On that topic, the State Bureau of Investigations has launched an investigation into inadequate defensive lines by the very same 125th brigade in the Kharkov region that allowed Russian forces to break through. Media reports indicate 28 commanders are being charged.

https://eventsinukraine.substack.com/p/ ... bilization

*******

China Has Legitimate Reasons Not To Participate In The Upcoming Swiss “Peace Talks”


ANDREW KORYBKO
JUN 03, 2024

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China’s objective national interests are advanced by positioning itself to play a key role in politically resolving the Ukrainian Conflict, even though it’ll closely work in coordination with (and arguably through) Brazil to this end since the West won’t participate in potentially forthcoming Chinese-hosted talks.

The Chinese Foreign Ministry spokeswoman announced last Friday that her country won’t participate in the upcoming Swiss “peace talks” because they lack the “the three important elements of recognition from both Russia and Ukraine, equal participation of all parties, and fair discussion of all peace plans.” She also referenced the Sino-Brazilian joint statement from a few weeks back about their principles for peacefully resolving this conflict. What follows are several background briefings on this subject:

* 1 March: “China’s Shuttle Diplomacy Will Promote Its Peace Plan But Is Unlikely To End The Proxy War”

* 20 March: “The Substance Of The Swiss Peace Talks Depends On Whether Russia Achieves A Breakthrough”

* 5 May: “Medvedev Has A Point About How Next Month’s Swiss ‘Peace Talks’ Could Backfire On Ukraine”

* 23 May: “Medvedev’s Tweet About The Upcoming Swiss ‘Peace Talks’ Risks Offending Close Russian Partners”

* 25 May: “Russia Is Open To Compromise But Won’t Agree To A Ceasefire That Doesn’t Meet Its Interests”

To summarize, China wants to lead its own peace process, but the US won’t allow Ukraine to participate in any such talks hosted by its systemic rival since it doesn’t want to give Beijing a grand diplomatic victory. The upcoming gathering in Switzerland won’t amount to anything since Russia wasn’t invited, nor would it be treated fairly if it was and it attended, which is why Medvedev doesn’t want friendly states to take part in it. At the same time, President Putin signaled Russia’s openness to compromise.

Accordingly, China believes that it’s possible for a non-Western peace process to arise in the wake of the inevitably failed Swiss one, likely in coordination with Brazil per those two’s joint statement from a few weeks back. Like Moscow, Beijing also doesn’t want other countries to attend the upcoming talks, albeit for its own reasons related to having them attend its own potentially forthcoming ones (possibly hosted by Brazil). These diplomatic dynamics are naturally occurring, but Zelensky doesn’t see things that way.

He smeared China over the weekend by claiming that “Russia, using Chinese influence on the region, using Chinese diplomats also, does everything to disrupt the peace summit. It is unfortunate that such a big, independent, powerful country as China is an instrument in the hands of Putin.” The reality is that China has legitimate reasons not to participate in the event and to encourage others to follow its lead as explained. It’s not sacrificing its objective national interests for Russia’s sake as the latter’s junior partner.

Rather, these selfsame interests are served through its analyzed policy, which aims to lay the basis for a non-Western peace process to emerge before November’s G20 Summit in Rio. The West hasn’t ever skipped a G20 Summit, and Brazil has continued voting against Russia at the UN even after Lula’s return to power so it can’t be smeared as a Russian or Chinese puppet. Thus, there’s no semi-plausible reason for the West not to participate in these talks there even if China helps organize them ahead of time.

Prior to then, there might even be a Sino-Brazilian analogue to the upcoming Swiss talks sometime later this summer wherein one of those two organizes a multilateral summit on this conflict that the West and Ukraine might decline participating in, though both would probably be invited for appearance’s sake. Once the G20 Summit in Rio rolls around, China and Brazil could make the case that these parallel peace processes should be merged into a single one whose details would be hashed out during that meeting.

Considering how unlikely it is that the West would boycott the G20 solely because Brazil might decide to put this on the agenda, irrespective of the degree to which it’s organized and promoted by China, it’s very possible that a more inclusive and fair peace process could emerge by November. The basis upon which it would be built is China’s 12-step peace plan from last year, though perhaps with a few adjustments taking into account the need for Western and Ukrainian participation.

In any case, the point is that China’s objective national interests are advanced by positioning itself to play a key role in politically resolving the Ukrainian Conflict, even though it’ll closely work in coordination with (and arguably through) Brazil to this end since the West won’t participate in Chinese-hosted talks. Zelensky was therefore lying through his teeth yet again when he smeared China as an implied Russian puppet since it’s fiercely independent and is doing all of this on of its own free will.

https://korybko.substack.com/p/china-ha ... easons-not
"There is great chaos under heaven; the situation is excellent."

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Re: Footnotes from the Ukrainian "Crisis"; New High-Points in Cynicism Part V

Post by blindpig » Tue Jun 04, 2024 12:46 pm

Volodymyr Zelensky's frustration
POSTED BY @NSANZO ⋅ 06/04/2024

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China's announcement of its absence at the peace summit to be held next week in Switzerland condemns Volodymyr Zelensky to having to rewrite the outcome of the meeting, whose sole objective was precisely to show Ukraine supported, not only by its partners, but even by those of Russia. As shown by the anger of the Ukrainian president, who in his visit to Singapore accused Beijing of helping Moscow sabotage the meeting, Zelensky will no longer be able to claim that the world supports Ukraine, the main, if not only, objective of the initiative, which in no way does it seek to move towards peace but rather to insist that its victory is the only acceptable outcome. Apparently without fear of insulting the world's second largest economy and Ukraine's main trading partner, the Ukrainian president presented China as a toy in the hands of Moscow, which through Chinese diplomacy is trying to sabotage its peace summit .

The argument contrasts with the official discourse of its Western allies, which for two years have used the opposite thesis: it is Russia that is in the hands of China in an increasingly unequal alliance in which Moscow acts practically as the colonized power. The current reality is that it is Russia that needs China and not the other way around, which is why negotiations for, for example, the sale of gas through the Siberian pipeline have stalled due to Chinese demands for exaggeratedly low prices. That is, at least, the Western narrative, which through the Financial Times boasts this week about the difficulties in reaching trade agreements between the two allies.

Despite the lack of realism in Zelensky's argument, it is evident that China's position has important weight, especially in the Global South, to which the Ukrainian president now appeals. So much so that, after eight months of unconditional support for Israel, the Ukrainian leader wanted to distance himself from Tel Aviv's actions and during his visit to Singapore, in which he hoped to achieve diplomatic successes in the form of a commitment to assist Switzerland, he demanded a ceasefire. Zelensky's hopes have not been fulfilled and, after China's refusal to participate in a summit to which the other party to the war has not been invited, desertions have accumulated. Saudi Arabia, another of the countries that Ukraine had tried to convince, also confirmed his absence. Beijing and Riyadh share having participated in previous meetings, as well as public relations events of the Ukrainian Government in which their presence has been used for propaganda. Alleging that its neutrality prevents condemning one of the parties, Russia, Pakistan has also questioned its participation, casting doubt on the presence of the fifth most populous country on the planet. And although they will be in Switzerland, they will not do so with high-level participation from countries like India or Brazil. The Brazilian announcement that its president will not attend the summit was joined yesterday by confirmation that Delhi will not send its prime minister or the foreign minister. The current dynamic indicates that it will be the absences that will mark the summit in which Zelensky hoped to show global unity in favor of Ukraine. That was the trick that kyiv wanted to play to show a strength far above the current balance of forces.

All wars end and they generally do so after a negotiation process in which the stronger side imposes a relevant part of its conditions on the weaker side. This is where Ukraine's allies are currently maneuvering, somewhat more moderate in their demands than kyiv, willing to fight for Crimea to the last Ukrainian soldier, whatever the level of destruction it implies and without ever taking into account the opinion of the population of the peninsula. Faced with a Ukraine that demands Russian withdrawal and an unconditional surrender that it cannot seriously demand given the conditions on the front and the balance of forces, even the United States or NATO seem to have somewhat less ambitious objectives. Judging by Victoria Nuland's recent words, Washington would be aware that kyiv will not recover Crimea and would settle for its demilitarization. And against Ukraine's wishes, Jens Stoltenberg, NATO Secretary General, has mentioned on several occasions that the goal is to put Ukraine in a better position for future negotiations.

But, in addition to this practical aspect of the reality of war, in which surrender can only be demanded from a defeated side, kyiv's maximalism would leave, if its wishes were fulfilled, the population of Donbass and Crimea at the mercy of who have spent a decade waiting for the moment to punish their disloyalty. The opinion of this unwanted population, which Zelensky himself encouraged long before February 2022 to move to Russia, is not worthy of consideration either for kyiv or for its partners, who agree on the need to present the Ukrainian people as a indivisible unit that fights against Russia and in defense of the Euro-Atlantic path that Petro Poroshenko introduced in the Constitution.

Ukraine and its partners also agree on the ultimate goal, defeating Russia, although not necessarily on how to do it. An article published by the Financial Times, for example, last week referred to the tension that supposedly exists between Kiev and Washington at a time that is considered critical for Ukraine, although possibly not. It is the war that is at the critical moment of deciding whether it will continue as the current war of attrition on Ukrainian territory or if, as Ukraine wishes, it will extend, thanks to greater Western participation, to the Russian part of the common border.

Exaggerating the danger of the Russian offensive in Kharkiv, already completely stalled in the urban fighting for the town of Volchansk, five kilometers from the Russian border and 73 from the regional capital, has given Ukraine's authorities and partners the opportunity to require taking additional steps on the path that leads the conflict to become a total war. The press, filtering the words of anonymous officers, has described what happened in Kharkiv as something with “devastating consequences”, an obvious falsehood considering that neither the Ukrainian front line has collapsed, nor has the front collapsed in other sectors. The numbers of Russian troops in the area have never allowed us to think that the city of Kharkiv could be in danger, as both Ukraine and its partners have implied at different times and, despite constant information announcing that there is a shortage of soldiers in the area, Ukrainian units, on this occasion the Kiev command has not had any problems in obtaining the necessary numbers to reinforce the sector without exposing other sensitive areas of the front.

Even so, having resolved, at least for the moment, the difficulty that Ukraine faced with the Russian offensive in Kharkov, the Ukrainian Government has not missed the opportunity to present what happened as a failure of Western action and use the facts as an argument. to achieve your goals. “We are further apart than ever in the period since the war began. It is very, very tense,” a senior Ukrainian government official told the Financial Times who, as usual, did so from the anonymity that allows uncomfortable realities to be revealed or facts manipulated as part of a broader argument. In the Ukrainian case, the exaggeration of the drama of the situation on the front and the political tensions between the allies acts in the same direction: demanding more weapons and ammunition, to which has recently been added the possibility of extending the war to the territory Russian with the use, not only of drones and its own artillery, but also missiles and Western aviation.

Ukraine appears to be aware that the complete victory it seeks will not be achieved on the battlefield, where Russia has greater resources. Even at times when Ukrainian military spending (adding its own resources and subsidies from its allies) has rivaled that of Russia, as happened in 2023, when the Ukrainian budget accounted for around 90% of the Russian budget, the counteroffensive did not give the expected results. The territorial advance was practically nil and the successes in the rear, especially in the Black Sea, were not relevant and kyiv, which has always blamed the failure on the lack of sufficient Western weapons, has spent months exploiting in its favor the possibility of a common defeat. That is the importance of summits like the one that will be held next week and in which kyiv aspires to achieve the broadest possible commitment to support Ukraine militarily, economically and diplomatically and intimidate Russia by showing its isolation, something that, judging Due to doubts in attendance, the Ukrainian president will not be able to comply.

“Volodymyr Zelensky's frustration with Joe Biden was laid bare this week, when the Ukrainian president berated his American counterpart in unusually blunt terms, claiming that Biden's plan to attend a Democratic fundraiser instead of the Ukrainian peace summit on June 15 and 16 “was not a firm decision,” writes the Financial Times to describe an alleged tension that has a lot of dramatization. The Ukrainian president needs to have a high-level American presence at his summit in Switzerland, Ukraine's main bet for 2024, if he wants to present to his public an image of diplomatic and political strength of a group of countries from which he will then demand more effort. military and sanctions to defeat Russia on the military or political-economic front. But Zelensky needs much more than weapons and military pressure against the Russian Federation to achieve his impossible goals. To this he is dedicating his main efforts. On the one hand, Ukraine has done its part by passing a mobilization law that allows the state to recruit a huge number of soldiers, many of them by force, another argument that kyiv is using very aggressively to achieve its objectives.

“We are being led to believe that it is the reckless desperate Ukrainians who are willing to fight to the last drop of blood, while the wise Americans are trying to warn them not to want too much. But reality could be the opposite,” Russian opposition journalist Leonid Ragozin commented last week about the media trend in recent weeks of presenting Ukraine as a demanding proxy that pulls its partners in search of further escalation. The precedents of this war indicate that, in the face of this tendency or Ragozin's response, the will to continue fighting has been common to kyiv and its allies. The peace of Minsk or the principle of agreement that was possible in Istanbul did not fail due to Western pressures, but due to the lack of will to end the conflict through diplomatic means on the part of both Ukraine and Western countries. This is demonstrated by the statements of the participants and the documents that have emerged over the years.

With no diplomacy in sight, continued escalation – albeit progressive to prevent an equivalent response from Russia – has been the norm. Now, Zelensky has four demands: more weapons and financing for the war, sanctions against Russia that prevent any economic relationship with the largest country on the planet, diplomatic and political pressure that is reflected in a huge photograph of heads of state and government. in Switzerland and promises of rapid and privileged accession to the European Union and NATO. The difficulties in showing victories on the front, the failure of sanctions, China's refusal to lend itself to being used as a tool against its main ally and the prudence with which Germany and the United States prevent access to the Alliance undermine Zelensky's effort. , increasingly nervous in search of images that he can use to reinforce himself.

It is not all bad news for the Ukrainian president, who despite the certainty that Ukraine will receive another year's no from NATO to the unequivocal promise of accession and will not be able to count on a sufficiently important cast at its peace summit , will have of an act with which to reaffirm the idea that its main partner, the United States, will remain there until final victory. The White House has confirmed that the American president will not be in Switzerland, but on June 6 he will sign the security commitment with Zelensky, one of the many bilateral agreements with which Western countries try to compensate Kiev for its refusal to grant it a NATO accession plan with a firm date. Although these treaties do not imply a commitment to send troops in the event of aggression and simply promise long-term military aid, the signing of a document and the image of the two heads of state is enough for the impatient Zelensky to appear before his public with a commitment that promises its people to maintain the status quo . War is guaranteed.

https://slavyangrad.es/2024/06/04/la-fr ... -zelensky/

Google Translator

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From Cassad' s Telegram account:

Colonelcassad
⚡️ Summary of the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation on the progress of the special military operation (as of June 4, 2024)

- Units of the North group of troops continue to advance into the depths of the enemy’s defense. During the day, the manpower and equipment of the 42nd mechanized, 57th motorized infantry, 82nd air assault brigades of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the 36th Marine Brigade and the 125th Terrorist Defense Brigade were damaged in the areas of the settlements of Zhovtnevoe, Liptsy, Stary Saltov , Vysoka Yaruga, Kharkov region.

Three counterattacks by assault groups of the 82nd Airborne Assault, 71st Jaeger Brigades and 13th Brigade of the National Guard of Ukraine were repelled.

The losses of the Armed Forces of Ukraine amounted to up to 105 military personnel, three vehicles , a combat vehicle of the Osa anti-aircraft missile system , a 155-mm M777 howitzer made in the USA, as well as a 122-mm howitzer D-30 .

— Units of the “West” group of troops occupied more advantageous positions and defeated the formations of the 28th mechanized, 4th tank brigades of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the areas of the settlements of Stepovaya Novoselovka and Boguslavka, Kharkov region.

In addition, a counterattack by an enemy assault group in the area of ​​the Nevskoye LPR settlement was repelled.

The Ukrainian Armed Forces lost up to 400 military personnel, three armored personnel carriers , eight cars , three 152-mm D-20 howitzers , a 152-mm 2A65 Msta-B howitzer and a 122-mm 2S1 Gvozdika self-propelled artillery mount .

— Units of the “Southern” group of forces improved the situation along the front line , and also defeated the manpower and equipment of the 28th, 54th mechanized, 5th assault, 46th airmobile brigades of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the areas of the settlements of Seversk, Dyleevka, Konstantinovka and Acute DPR.

The enemy lost more than 470 military personnel, two infantry fighting vehicles , three automobiles , as well as a 152 mm 2A65 Msta-B howitzer .

— Units of the “Center” group of troops improved the tactical position and defeated the formations of the 47th mechanized, 71st infantry brigades of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the 109th territorial defense brigade and the 2nd brigade of the National Guard in the areas of the settlements Sokol, Evgenovka, Karlovka and Rozovka of the Donetsk People’s Republic Republic.

We repelled five counterattacks by assault groups of the 23rd, 24th, 47th and 110th mechanized brigades of the Ukrainian Armed Forces.

Enemy losses amounted to 370 military personnel, four armored combat vehicles, two cars , a 155 mm M777 howitzer made in the USA, a 122 mm self-propelled artillery mount 2S1 "Gvozdika" , two 122 mm D-30 howitzers and a 105 mm M119 gun made in the USA.

— Units of the Vostok group of troops occupied more advantageous positions , and also defeated the manpower and equipment of the 58th motorized infantry brigade of the Ukrainian Armed Forces and the 128th terrestrial defense brigade in the areas of the settlements of Urozhaynoye and Storozhevoye of the Donetsk People’s Republic.

The Ukrainian Armed Forces lost up to 130 military personnel, two armored combat vehicles , and seven vehicles.

— Units of the Dnepr group of troops defeated the manpower and equipment of the formations of the 65th mechanized and 128th mountain assault brigades of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the areas of the settlements of Rabotino and Lobkovoe, Zaporozhye region.

The losses of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in this direction amounted to up to 75 military personnel, three vehicles , two 155-mm M777 howitzers made in the USA, a 152-mm howitzer D-20 , a 152-mm howitzer 2A65 "Msta-B" , and also the Su-25 attack aircraft of the air force was shot down Ukraine.

— Operational-tactical aviation, unmanned aerial vehicles, missile forces and artillery of groupings of troops of the Russian Armed Forces defeated concentrations of enemy manpower and military equipment in 112 regions.

— Air defense systems shot down during the day: 18 HIMARS missiles made in the USA and Alder, two Hammer guided bombs made in France, as well as 41 unmanned aerial vehicles of the Ukrainian Armed Forces.

📊 In total, since the beginning of the special military operation, the following have been destroyed: 610 aircraft, 274 helicopters, 25,122 unmanned aerial vehicles, 527 anti-aircraft missile systems, 16,247 tanks and other armored combat vehicles, 1,328 combat vehicles of multiple launch rocket systems, 10,074 field artillery guns and mortars, as well as 22263 units of special military vehicles.

https://t.me/s/boris_rozhin

Google Translator

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SITREP 6/1/24: Ukraine's Latest Gasp Off to Rocky Start

SIMPLICIUS
JUN 02, 2024

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Many in the pro-Russian sphere are losing their minds over it, calling for nuclear retaliation, WWIII, and more.

But as I wrote last time, it’s clear that a large part of this desperate morale-boosting work-up is nothing more than a cheap grandstand without much substance behind it.

There’s the fact that when you look under the hood, the messaging itself is mixed, with Pentagon spokesperson Sabrina Singh yesterday contradicting reports by stating that Ukraine does not in fact have permission to strike Russian territory:

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This was followed by reports further tempering the noise which said that Ukraine has limited permission to use American weapons only around Belgorod region and only on Russian military targets which are involved in the ongoing Kharkov campaign.

Yesterday strikes on Belgorod region began, with images surfacing which show recovered GMLRS rounds from the HIMARS after Belgorod defenses allegedly downed a full salvo. However, once more the totally futile and ineffective attempt served merely as a screen for Russia’s own far more devastating barrage, launched from the usual complement of Tu-95 bombers:

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The strikes once more targeted the remainder of Ukraine’s energy grid, hitting Dnipro Hydroelectric plant among others: (Video at link.)

arrival of Kh-101 missiles at the Dnipro hydroelectric power station on the night of June 1

The Dnieper hydroelectric power station, which is the largest hydroelectric power station in Ukraine, is in critical condition after explosions in the Kyiv-controlled city of Zaporozhye. This was announced by the head of the regional administration subordinate to the Ukrainian authorities, Ivan Fedorov.

“At the moment, the Dnieper Hydroelectric Station is in critical condition,” he said on the Rada TV channel. “We’re not even talking about generating electricity,” Fedorov added.


At the same time that U.S. was allegedly giving Ukraine reluctant permission for limited strikes, the U.S. conversely reprimanded their ward for the strikes on Russia’s strategic anti-ballistic missile early warning radar sites by issuing a statement of ‘concern’ about the strikes.

My personal reading of the situation as of now is as follows:

Zelensky was getting desperate with the ongoing failures and the U.S.’ lack of follow through on the so-called aid package and weapons deliveries. Thus, to put pressure on Biden, Zelensky went a bit rogue and deliberately crossed the U.S.’ own lines in hitting the Russian radar sites to scare Biden back into the fold. Now, in order to placate his intractable puppet, Biden was forced to make some desperate concession to calm Zelensky down: thus the somewhat erratic and failed rollout of the strike “permissions”.

However, despite how unsteady the U.S./Ukraine partnership is hobbling along, Russia is still forced to make serious considerations in regard to escalatory procedures for the crossed red lines, because signaling indecision and passivity is an exploitable weakness which potentially erodes Russia’s nuclear deterrence—the same deterrence which relies entirely on adversaries believing that Russia will act decisively when threatened to an unacceptable degree.

The fact is: the commentariat is split at the moment on this issue. Half the people and ‘analysts’ are in apoplectic and apocalyptic fury, declaring that Russia will lose all its might and standing in the world if it doesn’t react in some over the top way, the other half is dismissive. I’m mostly in the dismissive camp because I think Ukrainian attacks are overblown, not to mention that the attack on the OTH radar was likely met with very sharp reproofs behind the scenes which may mean Ukraine will not try it again. Likewise, Russia could have issued new sets of threats to the appropriate offices. Of course, if Ukraine does continue being insolent then things could change.

For now, there are some rumors of Russia’s response; for example:

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This would be a perfectly appropriate response in my view because we know Russia has already shot down an American RQ-9 with no adverse effect, as the Houthis likewise routinely down them without even thinking twice—to which the U.S. doesn’t respond.

By citing the RQ-4 as being involved in the attacks on the OTH radars, Russia would be within full justified rights in shooting even just one of them down demonstratively, and this of course would be linked with the other strikes on Russian soil allegedly soon to come.

This recent statement from Elena Panina from Russian RUSSTRAT thinktank gives an interesting breakdown:

The sign language of Russia and the United States: a “phase of exchanges” has begun in the party in Ukraine In the conversation between Russia and the United States, a certain readable language has emerged that can be read and understood. The sequence of steps and actions is this language: everything has a clear meaning. This makes it possible to understand what both sides are trying to achieve and to state that such a language of gestures is still readable and that the situation has not collapsed into chaos.

Thus, we see a clear desire on the part of the West to drive Russia into an escalation algorithm favorable to NATO. This is a protracted war of attrition against our country, waged exclusively with conventional weapons, for which NATO has the potential for quantitative and/or qualitative advantage. Even in those weapons where Russia has a predominance, NATO is trying to compensate for the situation with the combined use of other means of attack.

Russia is signaling that it sees this scenario and is conducting TNW (Tactical Nuclear Weapons) deployment exercises, albeit without loading warheads. This is a warning that there is a counter-scenario and that the West will not be able to impose its war plan.

The West immediately responds with strikes on Russian missile warning system (MWS) radar stations near Armavir and Orenburg, with a simultaneous attack on an antenna in Crimea, also used for this purpose. So far, this is only a demonstration. But the West has outlined the trajectories of future strikes and made it clear that it is capable of attacking Russia’s SPRN in a combined and serial manner, if Russia develops the topic of TNWs, rather than continuing the war according to the NATO plan by conventional means, where the West expects to realize its resource advantage.

At the same time, Russia is being given to understand that the West sees the problem of manning the AFU and is preparing to introduce contingents of NATO countries into Ukraine. NATO intends to block Russian intentions to block this build-up with TNWs by denoting its ability to blind our Strategic Nuclear Forces. This, according to the West, should force Russia to give up its strong trump card and accept an ultimatum in the fall, the text of which will be approved in Switzerland in June. At the same time, the West is conducting exercises to launch nuclear attacks near our borders. The pressure on the Russian leadership is exerted on all fronts, in combination. Preparedness for nuclear attacks, counting on internal instability, demonstrating readiness to expand escalation without restrictions - this is the language the West is now using with Russia. The goal is to convince the Russian leadership that it is impossible to inflict unacceptable damage on the West and surrender.

Putin responds to the West at the final press conference in Uzbekistan that everything was smooth on paper, but they forgot about the ravines. Russia sees and understands all the preparations of the West and has the will, forces and means to break this scenario. Moscow keeps its composure, realizes its resources and acts optimally. And it warns that everything will be different: Putin did not accidentally mention the high population density in Europe. Russia keeps the entire arsenal of possible responses to the West in reserve. Restraint should not be interpreted as passivity, but it should show the Global South Russia’s sanity on the eve of the conference in Switzerland. And thereby influence neutrals and allies in their attitudes toward the West’s agenda. Russia is showing that it sees the South’s concerns and is taking them into account, but it is not indefinite. If the West moves to another escalation stage, Russia will respond, and if it is important to the South that this not happen, it has a chance to press the West. That is where the nuclear threat to the world stems from.

Before us is a chess game where Russia is playing Black. Her strategy is built in relation to White’s strategy. The opening is over, the exchange phase (middlegame) has begun. White shows that he is ready to throw pieces off the board and move to a fight. Black shows that it will cost White a lot. The strategy of the West is a penned hunt, the strategy of Russia is a hunt for the hunter. These strategies are 200 years old, they are constant and are now being repeated. The West understands only real answers, it will not stop until it has tried everything. Russia will have to respond in kind. It’s about where Ukraine’s borders will be drawn and how the new balance of power in Europe will be formed. — Elena Panina, director of the Institute for International Political and Economic Strategies (RUSSTRAT)


I agree with much of what she says apart from that it was the West’s idea to strike Russian OTH radars. As I stated, I believe this was Zelensky’s rogue action against the West’s wishes. However, there are fine points to this: it is very likely that some secretive faction from the West—i.e. intel services—are working with Zelensky on this against the ruling administration’s wishes; this is very common in the U.S., where the CIA is often at odds with the Pentagon, with each supporting totally opposing sides.

<snip>

Northern Rumblings

One very interesting thread vis-a-vis Russia’s future battlefield plans continues to develop. We know the Sumy region rumors have been heating up—for instance, this new one:

Russia is gathering forces to attack the Sumy region - The Washington Post.

Over the past week, the number of satellite communication terminals has increased significantly along the border of the Sumy region. There is also a significant increase in radio communications, indicating a large presence of Russian troops.

However, Ukrainian sources claim that there is a lack of aerial reconnaissance, which was in large quantities before the offensive to the north of the Kharkov region[/i]

And this very interesting but uncorroborated report:

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https://readovka.news/news/192762

“The Gomel region of Belarus, bordering Ukraine, is ready to be transferred to wartime.”

This statement was made by the First Deputy Head of the Belarusian Ministry of Emergency Situations Alexander Khudoleev.

Let us recall that earlier Ukrainian Defense Minister Umerov said that Moscow wants to open a new front in the north.

The head of the Lithuanian Foreign Ministry did not rule out that Ukraine could launch strikes on the territory of Belarus

Recall that Gomel is the region of Belarus bordering Chernigov and Sumy:

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But the most interesting thread I’ve been watching is that for months now, there have been strange utterings about Russian troops in the Dnieper zone practicing river crossings and landings, which I’ve reported before.

Now there has been two strange things. Firstly, a video which I won’t post showing a Russian scuba diver being eliminated by Ukrainian drones, with the following commentary:

The operator of the FPV-drone of the 38th separate brigade of the marines destroyed a Russian scuba diver in the forest near Cossack Camps, on the occupied left bank of the Kherson region.

According to preliminary data, Russian scuba divers are engaged in demining the water area of ​​the Dnipro River, which may indicate preparations for intensifying hostilities on the part of the enemy on this part of the battle line.

46.704319, 33.030259


Followed by reports that Russian forces began to capture islands across the Dnieper virtually on the Ukrainian side, as the below UA post alarmingly concedes:

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For a better view, one can see the proximity to Kherson city itself:

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So, Russian divers are covertly demining the waters while forces capture islands deeper into the right bank: it is certainly an interesting development.

Now, beach season has opened in Odessa, and here is what the beaches there look like: (Videro at link.)

It seems they’re expecting something, no?

<snip>

On the topic of blowing smoke, the much-touted Czech ammo initiative continues to deteriorate, with a new report stating that not only did Czechia acquire a tiny fraction of the claimed shells as I had long written, but even the ones they sourced were faulty:

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https://archive.ph/xgjqo

In fact a full 50% of the shells were apparently unusable because they were sourced from African countries:

Michal Strnad, owner and chair of CSG, told the Financial Times that about 50 per cent of the parts acquired by his company on behalf of the Czech government in places such as Africa and Asia were not good enough to be sent to Ukraine without further work. For some shells, CSG is being forced to add missing components from its own production.

What kind of clown show is this?

“Every week the price is going up and there are big issues with the components,” Strnad said during an interview in his company’s Prague offices. “It’s not an easy job."

(Much more at link.)

https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/sit ... atest-gasp


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LAVROV ISSUES NUCLEAR WARNING OVER UKRAINE’S NEW F-16SJUNE 2, 2024 LEAVE A COMMENT
By Isabel Van Brugen, Newsweek, 5/30/24

Russia has issued a warning to the West over the planned delivery of F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine from Belgium this year.

Moscow will perceive the delivery of the aircraft as a “signal action” by NATO “in the nuclear sphere,” Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said in an interview with state-run news agency RIA Novosti published on Wednesday.

His remarks come after Belgium pledged on Tuesday to deliver a first batch of F-16s to Ukraine this year. The two nations signed a security agreement this week that includes supplying a total of 30 of the U.S.-built fighter jets to Ukraine to ramp up its defenses amid the ongoing war launched by Russia.

“They are trying to tell us that the United States and NATO would stop at nothing in Ukraine,” Lavrov said. “Nevertheless, we hope that the Russian-Belarusian drills on the use of non-strategic nuclear weapons that are underway now will knock some sense into our opponents by reminding them about the catastrophic consequences of further nuclear escalation.”

Lavrov added: “These aircraft will be destroyed, like other types of weapons supplied by NATO countries to Ukraine.”

Newsweek has contacted Russia’s Defense Ministry for comment by email.

Belgium vowed to supply Ukraine with all 30 F-16s before 2028. Last year, Belgium, alongside Denmark, Norway and the Netherlands, announced that it would be sending Ukraine an unspecified number of the aircraft.

Belgian Prime Minister Alexander De Croo said at a press briefing with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky on Tuesday that his country would provide Ukraine with the F-16 jets “as soon as possible.”

“Our aim is to be able to provide first aircraft before the end of this year, 2024,” he said. “We will do everything in our capacity to deliver some planes already this year.”

However, De Croo said the U.S.-made jets are only to be used within Ukrainian territory.

“Everything which is covered by this agreement is very clear: it is for utilization by the Ukrainian defense forces on Ukraine territory,” he said.

There has been a growing chorus of calls for Ukraine to be authorized to use Western weapons to attack targets inside Russia, more than two years into the war launched by Moscow in February 2022.

“Putin has only one influence mechanism, that is the destruction of life. He is not capable of anything else,” Zelensky said Tuesday. “A sufficient power of weaponry is crucial so that we can physically defend [ourselves] against Russia’s terror.”

“They are shooting at you, and you cannot shoot back at them because you do not have the permission [from Western allies],” he added.

https://natyliesbaldwin.com/2024/06/lav ... new-f-16s/

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Reservation from mobilization
June 3, 13:21

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Nazi Mosiychuk said that in the Chernigov TCC one of the citizens of Ukraine caught by the lure catchers was offered to be released in exchange for oral sex with a TCC employee.

Blow the TCC employee and you can go to Vienna to drink coffee. But it is not exactly.

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/9183945.html

Geranium routes in May 2024
June 3, 17:51

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The main routes of Geranium attacks on targets on the territory of Ukraine in May 2024, according to the enemy. The production volumes of Geraniums in Russia (the plant in the Alabuga FEZ is of particular importance) made it possible to ensure the continuity of such attacks. Hence the attempts to attack Alabuga using drones. They are trying to somehow prevent the increase in production of Geraniums.
Western media claim that in 2024 Russia will begin production of up to 6,000 Geraniums per year. Moreover, all drones are assembled in Russia.

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/9184551.html

Free advertising from the SBU
June 4, 8:30

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Free advertising from the SBU

Security Service of Ukraine announced suspicions to military expert, author of the term “polite people” Boris Rozhin. The message was published on the department’s Telegram channel.

As noted by the SBU, Rozhin coined the phrase “polite people” during the annexation of Crimea to Russia. He is also accused of publicly supporting Russia during a special military operation (SVO).

Currently, the blogger is one of the key mouthpieces of the Kremlin, which publicly supports Russia’s full-scale war against Ukraine and justifies the war crimes of the Russians.

Among other things, he calls for the complete destruction of Kharkov's civilian infrastructure and advocates the continuation of massive missile and bomb attacks on the city.

It has been established that Rozhin distributes anti-Ukrainian content under the pseudonym Colonelcassad through his own accounts on social networks, with a total audience of almost 1 million users.

“Investigators of the Security Service [of Ukraine] informed Rozhin in absentia of suspicion under five articles of the Criminal Code of Ukraine,” the department said. In particular, the expert is accused of encroaching on the territorial integrity and inviolability of Ukraine.


Thanks for the free advertising.

We hear sounds of approval,
Not in the sweet roar of praise,
But in wild cries on anger.


Google Translator

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Towards a Global Nuclear War
Posted by INTERNATIONALIST 360° on JUNE 3, 2024
Dimitris Konstantakopoulos

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Towards a global nuclear warA stormy chain of events in recent days, with the latest being Biden’s decision to allow the use of US weapons for strikes inside Russia, has come to confirm our worst fears. The human species is, as Professor Jeffrey Sachs of Columbia University said recently in an interview, closer to nuclear annihilation than at any other time in history.

The genocide of the Palestinians in Gaza has, for the first time since the Vietnam War, provoked a very important global protest movement, with the participation of many Jews in the diaspora. Very important because in Palestine, it is not only the fate of the Palestinians that is being decided. The fate of human civilization, our fate, is at stake. Accepting what is happening in Palestine, a small fraction of which we see on our televisions, would indicate a regression to a jungle-like situation in human relations, a law of the strong, with no mercy for individuals, peoples, nations and states.

In Palestine the stakes are the salvation of human civilization, in Ukraine, they are the very survival of the human species.

Unfortunately, developments here lack the immediacy of Israeli crimes, which left no room for the pro-Israeli propaganda that has once again flooded the media of the increasingly totalitarian world in which we live. While the vast majority of Western and world public opinion has grasped the importance of what is happening in Palestine, it has not grasped that NATO’s adventurist policy is rapidly leading us towards a European and global nuclear catastrophe and has not mobilized as it should have done in the face of the greatest threat to its very survival that humanity has ever encountered in its entire history. Many believe there is a war between Ukraine and Russia, when in fact we are witnessing a NATO war against Russia, with all the inherent dangers of such a confrontation.

We still consider it fundamentally inconceivable to reach nuclear war, and by considering it inconceivable we are making it possible and even probable.

We have repeatedly written our view on how the West itself has provoked the current war in Ukraine and is waging it using the Zelenskyy regime in Kyiv as its tool. But even if you completely disagree with this analysis, even if you agree with the Western arguments in favor of Ukraine’s right to defend itself and against Russia, I think you will agree that to (supposedly) defend Ukraine and to fight “evil Russia”, it is not reasonable to blow up the planet (including the Ukrainians themselves)!

This is precisely where the policy of the collective West leads us, fueled by the extremist War Party within it, which now seems to have completely overturned any objections expressed in the process by President Biden and German Chancellor Scholz, who are no longer in charge of the situation and are unknowingly steering humanity towards its ruin.

The attempted assassination of the Slovak Prime Minister Fico has shown that no differentiation by anyone exercising governmental power in a state of the collective West will any longer be tolerated. The real power on the planet, big finance capital, has apparently decided that it will tolerate nothing less than victory in the war against Russia. Catching the drift, Trump repeated to his backers his earlier statement that he would bomb Moscow and Beijing in the event of an invasion of Ukraine or Taiwan.

The great nuclear provocation

Ukraine, i.e. NATO, hit two Russian radars with early warning of a nuclear attack, including intercontinental ballistic missiles. The attack on the radars has nothing to do with the war in Ukraine itself and objectively, regardless of intentions, it facilitates a possible nuclear attack on Russia and a possible first, surprise strike, i.e. it can reasonably be considered and does indeed constitute the first step in the preparation of a nuclear attack against Moscow. It dramatically increases uncertainty and therefore increases the likelihood of a European or global nuclear war.

The whole philosophy of arms control for decades has been to assure both adversaries that they will not be attacked by surprise. When facing the possibility of a surprise attack, you have an incentive to strike first before your opponent can cripple your nuclear capabilities.

This principle was placed by the Americans themselves at the center of the arms control philosophy, despite the initial objections of the Soviets, who were eventually convinced, and it was reflected in the 1972 ABM Treaty. The logic is that if both sides know that they will receive a devastating retaliatory blow, they will not go for a surprise first strike.

At best, which is not good at all, it is a case of great adventurism and frivolity with which the Americans and their allies are violating, in their desperation and incoherence, the most basic principles of nuclear stability, which were accepted in the past by both the US and the USSR and allowed the maintenance of peace between the nuclear powers despite the Cold War, i.e. the survival of humanity.

In a “middle” case scenario, the Americans are attempting, by threatening Russia with a general nuclear war, to prevent it from using tactical nuclear weapons or provoke it to use them first and to take political responsibility for the first use of such weapons after Hiroshima and Nagasaki, allowing them the option to employ such weapons as well.

In any case, we have abandoned any notion of “strategic stability” and have been led to the “Madman Strategy” (chicken game), and a path that, by trapping both sides in a situation where neither can retreat, makes conflict inevitable.

But of course, there is a worst case scenario, and it’s impossible for the Russian military, and anyone in their position, not to think about it. That the Americans, unwilling to accept anything beyond a complete victory in Ukraine, are ready to launch a nuclear war.

What would Washington think if some drones or missiles hit US early warning radar? What would London and Paris think in a similar situation?

What NATO itself says

But let’s leave our own analyses of what the Westerners are doing for the moment and see what they tell us.

Last Monday, a few days after the radar attacks, the Atlantic Alliance took the view at the Sofia summit that “Russia can and must suffer a strategic defeat in Ukraine” and that there must be a “clearly formulated strategy to provide Ukraine with everything it needs, as quickly as it can and for as long as it needs to win”.

Russia’s “strategic defeat” means the expulsion of Russian forces from the Crimean and Donbass regions, inhabited by an overwhelming majority of ethnic Russians, measures to disarm Russia, the overthrow of the Putin regime, the trial and conviction of the Russian President along the lines of Saddam Hussein, and the imposition of a regime far more subservient to Washington and the “collective West” than that which existed under Boris Yeltsin.

But such aspirations are almost impossible to achieve without the massive use of nuclear weapons. They are hardly likely to be achieved by conventional means, as the experience of the conflict in Ukraine has shown so far. But even if this unlikely scenario were to materialize, it is even more unlikely that Russia, faced with defeat by conventional weapons, would surrender without using all the means at its disposal.

If powerful centers in the West want to provoke a nuclear war, or are willing to tolerate the risk of such a war, as shown by actions, not deeds, as a last resort to defeat Russia, then they will seek to force Moscow to make first use of tactical nuclear weapons, so that it will bear the huge political cost, “absolving” them of any restrictions.

Polish Foreign Minister Sikorski, who is often used to say what others don’t want to say, recently said that the Americans warned the Russians that if they use even one tactical nuclear weapon, even without casualties, they will destroy all Russian positions in Ukraine by every available conventional means. Of course, one must be a complete fool to believe that such a thing can happen without leading to a world war and that such a war is possible without the use of nuclear weapons. Either Sikorsky is a complete fool, or he cannot publicly say that we will go to global nuclear war if it is impossible to defeat Russia otherwise.

Note that it is wishful thinking to hope that a nuclear conflict will be controlled, confined to one category of weapons and one geographical area. If the fear of nuclear war and the destruction of humanity is not enough to stop the first use of a nuclear weapon since Hiroshima and Nagasaki, it is unlikely that anything will stop further escalation once the first major moral and political barrier is breached.

Some may say that this is all bluff and neither side will get to where it threatens to go. The bad thing about this view is that the only way to know if it is correct is to roll the dice on the existence of the human species. Bluffs, after all, have their own dynamics. Once they are formulated, they also bind those who make them.

https://libya360.wordpress.com/2024/06/ ... clear-war/
"There is great chaos under heaven; the situation is excellent."

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